January 15, 2025 • 37 mins
On today’s episode, Jason is joined by professional sports bettor David Baker for a lengthy conversation focusing on the results of the NFL Wild Card round and looking ahead to this weekend’s NFL Divisional round slate – all from a wagering perspective!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up straight Firefam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight
Fire for Wednesday, January fifteenth. Got a great guest on
today's podcast. NFL Playoffs this weekend. Who better to bring
in than David Baker, the guy who always enters the
contest in Vegas, has done well in them. Did not
(00:33):
cash this year. He's won them before, which is impressive.
I have yet to get a win get to cash,
which is frustrating as hell. But we go into all
four games this weekend interestingly a lot of agreement. I
told you guys last week it was a teaser week.
Go back and listen to the Park podcast with turnoff.
I know you're not going to, but humor me, and
(00:54):
I mean I nailed the whole weekend with teasers parlays,
like the best teams are. Winter has not been like
a real upset. If you want to go Texans Overchargers,
find a mild upset, Washington over Tempa mild upset, but
like that's not a real upset. If Detroit were to
go down, that's an upset that would shock everybody. If
the Chiefs lost and they won't, that would be one
(01:15):
of the biggest upsets that I can recall in NFL
in recent maybe this century. Okay, is not happening. Rams Eagles.
We talk about that one, and of course then there's
the Ravens Bills game. A lot of people like Baltimore
I am. I'm slightly leaning the other way, but nothing
from me on the straight up on that one. I
did tease Buffalo. We'll get into it. Kind of a
(01:38):
slow Tuesday in sports, which is nice.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
Listen.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
We had college football playoff games Thursday and Friday. We
had NFL Saturday, Sunday, Monday. It's nice to get a
night off. Last night I found myself basically by eight
thirty when I got in a workout, played a little
pick up before I tweaked my damn groin. O. Getting
old sucks. Anyways, It's just a great day and I'm
in bed by like eight thirty getting a little reading done.
(02:02):
I do have a mock draft coming out for Fox Sports.
It's funny. They came to me and they were like, Heyja,
your mockdraft did like bonkers numbers. They would love another one.
I was like, all right, okay, you know what more
winning NFL pick since I went three and oh last
week on the Picks on Fox sports dot Com. I
know too much bragging. Anyways, let's get to our guest,
David Baker, professional poker player and really good contest player
(02:26):
on the NFL front.
Speaker 1 (02:28):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app. Search FSR to
listen live. You know a guy, Jason likes to think
he knows everything when it comes to sports. I know
what sports fans want, but for everything he doesn't. He
(02:50):
knows the guy who does.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows the
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
All right, let's welcome back to straight fire. He's the
contest guy. He just dominates. Also, he's big in Survivor.
But now we're in the playoffs and it's the Division
a round. Great game for Brandon David Baker, the superstar gambler.
Speaker 3 (03:10):
How are you, man, man, I'm knowing great?
Speaker 4 (03:13):
What a fun season, contests, Survivor, everything, and it's weird.
It's hard to you know, flip your mind onto just
one game or yeah, in this case, four games.
Speaker 3 (03:26):
It's it's a whole different thing.
Speaker 4 (03:28):
When you're kind of forced to bet on each game
or have opinions on each game a posted during the
regular season, you can kind of.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
You know, more seek out spots.
Speaker 4 (03:38):
Yeah, exactly, it's a whole different a whole different game,
for sure.
Speaker 2 (03:42):
It's almost we'll get to a short I'm just curious,
how did you guys end up in the Westgate and Circa.
I was a little over five hundred I think fifty
two percent obviously didn't cash, but you know, kind of
proud of some of the some of the weeks. But
how'd you end up doing?
Speaker 4 (03:56):
I think, like I don't know top and I didn't
actually see the final results, but maybe like top fifty
or sixteen Westgate and then outside the money in Circa
they were both outside the money. But I'll be honest,
once we get to once we get to where where
you know, five hundred through a few weeks or whatever,
we we do take different different approaches.
Speaker 3 (04:16):
We do take more of a game theory approach.
Speaker 4 (04:19):
I would actually kind of like to do it one
year where you know, we just have a few that
it's like all just about you know, stat padding and
things like that and kind of.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
See what you can do.
Speaker 4 (04:29):
But you know, if you're if you're down there or
you know, let's say you have a three and two
week on the first week of the quarter or four
and one week, it's hard to really take some of
the freer squares, you know, with the line moves and
things like that, and so, you know, I don't get
artificially worried about like what the actual number is when
you know, I actually play. We play the contest to
try to maximize.
Speaker 3 (04:51):
You know, the ev of each entries.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
So oh yeah, definitely. So let's jump in. First of all,
how was your wild Card weekend? I had just a monster,
but it wasn't all straight up. It was a lot
of teasers and parlays because the favorites, as they've been
doing this season, crushed it. I'm Jay, how did you
end up doing?
Speaker 3 (05:09):
Not that great?
Speaker 4 (05:10):
I started off, you know, my initial reads we were right,
but I don't know.
Speaker 3 (05:15):
I got talked off of both.
Speaker 4 (05:17):
The Texans and the Commanders, which was kind of kind
of sad for me. I was, you know, I don't
know if you remember our preseason pod, but I was,
you know, my prediction was Lions Texans, so I had
Lions Texans in the Super Bowl. I bet overs on
both of those teams. Was I was heavily invested in
both those teams, and you know, I just let the
(05:41):
narrative of what the Texans look like kind of sway
me off of them, and I'm kind of a little
sad about that.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
And the Commanders.
Speaker 4 (05:50):
I don't know, I didn't necessarily get swayed onto the box.
I just didn't end up playing the game. But my
initial thought was that was kind of a toss up
game and three points kind of felt like, you know,
a good there. But overall it was pretty good. I mean,
it was it was fine. My biggest play was by
far the Eagles. That was the one I had the
most confidence in. But I did kind of get worked
last night. I believed in Sam Donald.
Speaker 3 (06:11):
I believe things. Yeah I did.
Speaker 4 (06:13):
I have to say I fell hook line and sinker
for this team. But I mean, more than anything, I
was you know, I was disappointed in Darnald, but I
was mostly disappointed in O'Connell and to a lesser extent,
Sean Payton. In the Broncos games. I felt like both
of these coaches really didn't give their chance, their team
(06:35):
a chance to win. I was really disappointed with Peyton
and O'Connell going to not taking every opportunity early in
the second half when they're down, you know, a touchdown
or two touchdowns to really kind of go for it.
And you know, I saw Sean Payton earlier this season
against the Ravens. They lost forty one to ten, but
(06:56):
I came out like really impressed with him and the
team because early in the game they went for an
on fourth down multiple times and they ended up getting
blown out because it didn't work. But then they stepped
into this game plan versus the Bills, and they're down,
you know, thirteen to seven, they come out, run, run, pass.
Speaker 2 (07:14):
Yeah, I saw that very conservative.
Speaker 4 (07:17):
Yeah, so I was a little disappointed with that, and
O'Connell kind of did a lot of that, even though
the play calls. You know, he did run the ball
more more than I think he wanted to, but I
think he kind of knew that, you know, we have
to try to just get something to free up Darnold.
Speaker 3 (07:30):
But just the lack of pace and the lack of.
Speaker 4 (07:33):
Effort of just trying to push the ball was a
little disappointing.
Speaker 3 (07:36):
But look, I want to give you know, give props
to the Rams.
Speaker 4 (07:40):
They were outstanding last night under obviously horrific circumstances with
LA and everything going on and moving the game and
all that. That defense, oh, very very impressive.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Oh yeah, I mean they've grown up a lot. Last
time we saw them, I guess it play A good
opponent was the Bills, and they gave up like forty
two and before that the Eagles all over them. So
I can understand some of the vikings takes. We'll get
to that game shortly. Let's start with Houston Chiefs. As
we're recording this on Tuesday afternoon, the Chiefs are this
has kind of been pinging around. It was like eight
(08:11):
and a half, then it went down I think to
seven and a half, and now it's up to nine.
I'm seeing. I don't know, man, I can't make a
case at all for the Texans. I guess their defense
could make a fluke play, splash play here or there.
I can't get out of my head, David. The twenty
four zero lead they had against the Chiefs. I'm sure
you remember that at Arrowhead it was twenty.
Speaker 3 (08:31):
Yeah, that was with Watson. That was a whole different.
Speaker 2 (08:33):
That was with Watchson, totally different. But they were twenty
four nothing on the Chiefs and then they lose like
fifty one thirty or something. So I'm sure some people
are going to talk themselves into it, but Andy Reid
plenty of time to prepare Chiefs getting healthy. I mean,
this is a this is the only full side I
bet is Chiefs at eight. But I also love them
in every teaser angle possible under three.
Speaker 4 (08:55):
Yeah, I mean the thing with me is it's really
tough for me to want to lay eight points on
a total of forty one. You know, you're basically your
margin for error there is is really tight. Also, you
just have the Chiefs who just really don't traditionally.
Speaker 3 (09:15):
Go for it.
Speaker 4 (09:16):
They don't particularly gamble, They're not afraid to kick field goals,
They're not afraid to, you know, in the last five
minutes when you know Detroit may just try to, you know,
put that nail in the coffin touchdown. You know, you
know that Mahomes is going to just scramble around back there,
get the first down, find Kelsey's going to go down.
They're going to run the clock out, things like that.
(09:37):
So there's a lot less margin for error. But I mean,
I do see what you're saying. It is difficult to
trust this Houston team that has a real lack of
playmakers outside of Nico, who probably is the best receiver
left in the field. You know, obviously you can make
a case for Puco or AJ Brown, but just.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
A bit about Brown, Mary Terry. But you're right Nico
Commys I mean, yeah, I.
Speaker 4 (10:02):
Mean Nico's Nicos is good or not better than all
of them in my opinion. But the problem is the Chiefs.
You know, they are the best coach team, and Mahomes is,
you know, the smartest quarterback we've seen, you know, outside
of Brady or since Brady, or you know, over Brady,
under Brady, however you want to put it, however you
want to phrase it. He's very smart at game management.
(10:25):
So yeah, I just don't really like the Chiefs in
a blowout situation just because they're they don't have the playmakers.
Speaker 3 (10:34):
But on the flip side, I do get it.
Speaker 4 (10:37):
I do understand that this Texans offensive line is extremely flawed.
In Chris Jones putting pressure on CJ. Stroud, you know,
it's really something. I'm not sure if a light went
on in CJ's head or not, but it felt like
that first quarter against the Chargers, he was playing like
(10:58):
he had played a lot of this year, which wasn't good.
And as soon as they didn't call that intentional grounding
on safety and they fumbled the you know, the next
snap and he picked it up and he ran around,
he threw it. It's almost kind of like he was unleashed,
and he was kind of like, you know what, if
I'm going to go down, I'm going to go down,
and I'm going to go down swinging, and it's just
(11:19):
kind of like a light turned. This is a very
dangerous spot for underdogs. So I definitely see your take
on the Chiefs. And I had a long talk with
my partner who I do the contest with last night,
and he.
Speaker 3 (11:33):
Was all in with you on the Chiefs.
Speaker 4 (11:34):
I can't get there just because I don't really like
laying more than a touchdown with this Chiefs team. I
don't like laying more than a touchdown, but it's a
good defense, and I don't like laying more than a
touchdown when your best weapons are you know, Xavier Worthy,
who can't trust to catch a big ball. Hopkins, who
I can trust to catch big balls, but he's not
really a separator Hollywood Brown. You know he can catch
(11:56):
balls and he can separate, but I mean he really
is still coming off of an injury.
Speaker 3 (12:02):
So I don't know.
Speaker 4 (12:02):
I just don't really trust them to put up a
lot of points. I think I do think the Chiefs
win this game, but I think it's somewhere in you know,
nineteen sixteen range or something like that.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
What about game?
Speaker 2 (12:16):
Could I interest you in a Texans first quarter? Chiefs
basically sat there guys in week eighteen, then had a
bye week. Maybe they come out sluggish. That's one angle
maybe for the Texans. I haven't seen any props. I
see A first half is casey minus six. I just
nothing excites me about the Texans except their corners, who
(12:36):
played really well, but it was against lad McConkey in
some fifth rate Chargers guys. Then again, like you said,
Chiefs don't have any scary guys.
Speaker 4 (12:44):
Well, the thing that I mean it's all going to
come down to can Will Anderson and this defensive line
get pressure on Mahomes and I think he can that.
The Chiefs offensive line has had a lot of issues
this year. But the thing with Mahomes is he kind
of he gets out of it. Even when he gets pressure,
like in these big moments, he seems to evade the
(13:05):
rush and either find a guy or scramble. You know,
So there's a lot of variants there. Do they end
up getting him down or does he pull his Mahomes magic.
I definitely would kind of lean if I'm looking at
props towards Mahomes over rushing attempts and things, because I
can really see the Texans getting pressure on him. I
(13:25):
don't think they're going to be designed scrambles, but look
when the pressure is beating down on him, and we
know that this offensive line is not that great for
the Chiefs. Mahomes has had a propensity to escape and
run in the playoffs, so I could see that.
Speaker 3 (13:41):
Being an angle.
Speaker 4 (13:41):
I do see that the Chiefs might be slow starters.
We do know that they're quick finishers though, So I
do like your angle if you do like the you know,
if I like the Texans to maybe go at it
from a first half angle.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
Washington Detroit. I'm pretty sure every casual gambler and probably
a lot of guys who just enjoy money are going
to have a Detroit KC teaser in there in their account.
Now the both lines. Detroit's up to nine and a half,
case at nine. My guess is a lot of that
has to do with teasers, because now you got a
seven point teaser has to get you under the three.
(14:17):
I like Jayden Daniels running against Detroit that Detroit has
given up a lot of yards to running quarterbacks because
they play a lot of man. It's just tough third
straight road game for Washington. We saw the Chargers wilt
in the second half of a third straight road game,
and I Detroit kind of rested Montgomery coming back. My
one caution on the big spread here is that both
(14:40):
of these coaches are roll of the dice gamblers. And
if Dan Campbell gets like, O hey, we got this
fourth and one from our own thirty eight in the
first quarter and there's a bubble stap all of a sudden, Washington,
Oh okay, we got something here. I just worry about
Washington's special teams. Their kicker, Oh gosh, what a that
guy's Zame Gonzales, that it doesn't have any confidence. I'm
sure you saw him pacing before the final kick and
then he hit the upright. So this is just teaser
(15:03):
action for me and I'll have a money line parlay
with Chiefs, Lions and then Eagles.
Speaker 3 (15:09):
Yeah. I mean, you hit the nail right on the head.
Speaker 4 (15:12):
I think this game, the bigger spread doesn't scare me
as much, just because I feel like there's a lot
more variance on a fifty five point spread and two
guys who you know, it goes the other way too.
As much as Dan Campbell is willing to go for
it and put his team in position to end games
and score and thus maybe setting up good field position
(15:33):
for the Commanders, well, Dan Point has shown a propensity
to go for it as well. He knows he's going
to have to score almost every time they have the ball.
So I could see this game getting out of hand
from on the flip side too, because if they don't
convert those, you know, you're setting up short fields and
we know that the Lions can can convert from anywhere anytime.
(15:57):
I think there's just too many playmakers.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
On the Lions.
Speaker 4 (16:00):
You know, when I saw the line, I thought it
was high, and then when I started diving into it,
I mean, you really just have to find.
Speaker 3 (16:07):
A way to limit mccorn.
Speaker 4 (16:10):
I mean, Diami Brown had a nice game and Zakias
has had a couple of nice games.
Speaker 3 (16:15):
You know, Aklon Robinson.
Speaker 4 (16:17):
Are fine, but you know, they're all middle of the tier,
middle tier skill position players, and to have to constantly
be called on to score and have to score thirty
points a game, You're not going up against this Tampa
Bay pass defense. You're not going up against this Atlanta
Falcons the past defense. I understand that the Lions have
(16:38):
been susceptible, but they're starting to get guys back.
Speaker 3 (16:41):
Angeloni is a big return.
Speaker 4 (16:44):
I think they might have found themselves a little bit
in that Vikings game. You know, as much as we
want to say, was it the Vikings, was it the
Lions that kind of broke the Vikings or did you know,
we find the Lions might have been a little bit
of both. I mean, the Lions might have broke the
Vikings and maybe the Vikings health to shore a little
confidence there. I'm just going to trust that this Lions
(17:05):
team is going to be able to score almost every
time they have the ball. This this Commander's team doesn't
have depth and they don't really have playmakers on the
defensive side of the ball. The only reason that they
stopped the Bucks really was turnover and really just the
Commanders holding the ball, the lack of time of possession.
(17:27):
I feel like the Bucks were kind of able to
do what they wanted. So yeah, I think that the
Lions just get it done. I mean, I can't get
off this Lion's train, but I do like your thought
of finding a way to get this thing down to
the low field goal or whatnot.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
I'm going to put some.
Speaker 4 (17:46):
You know, some of my numbers to work and see
if I think that there might be better value and
just maybe vetting the Lions just to win the NFC,
trying to estimate what I think the chances are the
Rams win that game, and also kind of seeing what
I think the the money line will be in the
second round, because if I really do think that the
Lions are going to win this game, you can get
a little bit over even money. I think plus one
(18:07):
ten or around even money to win the NFC. So
if we can get through this game, we're going to
have a team that's probably going to be minus one
sixty minus one seventy verst the Eagles and probably minus
two to twenty or something maybe against the Rams, and
you're going to have them at even money.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
So that's kind of the way I might.
Speaker 4 (18:22):
I might end up attacking it, but I have to
go ahead and take a look and see, really what
I think that line's going to be posted at.
Speaker 2 (18:28):
Yeah, it's interesting that Sunday game Rams Eagles. I'm seeing
Eagles six, so it's not a huge spread. And what
do you make of this safe? So Rams were displaced,
had to go to Arizona, then they got to fly
back to La Not a bad play. Then on a
short week because they played Monday, They've got to fly
across the country to Philly. I'm seeing temperatures looks like
(18:50):
it's going to be not freezing, but in the thirties.
I kind of like this Rams team fully formed with
Kyne cup Hookah and Stafford and then the defense and
then you know, revenges can be difficult. I mean, Eagles
walked all over them. Do you think the Rams aren't
going to be ready for the run? I just don't
know about that Rams secondary. If you if you come
(19:13):
up on the line, they're just gonna have a j
Brown one on one, and you know he's a machine.
That guy's a beast. So I'm struggling to find a
path to victory for the Rams. But I keep coming
back to this. McVeigh versus Sirianni to me, is the
biggest coaching differential this round.
Speaker 4 (19:29):
Yeah, I mean it's probably the biggest coaching differential in
the in the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (19:35):
I mean, who's who Who do you.
Speaker 4 (19:37):
Trust lead less than Siriani And who do you trust
more than McVeigh other than probably Andy Reid obviously.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
Yeah, but.
Speaker 4 (19:46):
Yeah, this is this is a really tough game because
I love the physicality of the Eagles and thought that
offensive line is just just beastly. But do we trust
do we trust Hurts? And that's the question that you
kind of have to ask yourself because the Rams are
going to sell out to stop Barkley, I think, and
(20:11):
you know it's Barkley able to get off. And do
you trust Hurts if he doesn't? I like Hurts more
than other people do. I think he's fine. But yeah,
I really like what this Rams looks like. I mean,
it's crazy because I really did like the Viking so much,
(20:33):
But now looking back on, you know, they went to
San Francisco when San Francisco needed to win. It was
a little it was rainy, but they held them to
single digits. Then they played the Jets. You know, I
don't think any of us really feel that highly about
the Jets.
Speaker 3 (20:49):
But you know, the offense did move a lot.
Speaker 4 (20:51):
The end of the year, and they basically shut them
down to under ten points. They played Arizona team that
was you know, Kyler and and have weapons, and they
shut them to under ten points. You had a Viking
team come in that was, you know, one of the
top five offenses in the league, and they shut them
down to under ten points. It's tough to lay six
points in a game that Again, I don't particularly see
(21:15):
a ton of scoring. I think Philly likes the limit possessions.
They like to run the football, they like to keep
the clock moving, they like to play pretty slow, and
when you look at the Rams, they like to complete
high and play high percentage completions. So if you're limiting
possessions and you have two teams that I think are
are good, and you have one team with a pretty
(21:37):
excellent coach, I think his his goals to get to
that fourth quarter in a one score game. So I'm
leaning at this point Rams.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
On the money line.
Speaker 4 (21:46):
No, no, no, But the points I don't really I
don't think I really have a strong take at lat
Lean over two to one with the Eagles, because you know,
like you say, this is a really tough spot. You
see a lot of times when teams go through or hardships.
A lot of times that first game they can find
everything that they have to put into it, but then
(22:08):
having to rebound that second week. You know, I can
remember this. I mean, there have been many instances. One
that just always stuck with me was the Sean Taylor game.
I don't know if you remember back when you know,
when he got killed and Washington had to play. I
thought that that was just a time. I don't know
why that game just sticks with me. But they they
(22:28):
went out and they played like so hard for him
in a spot where I didn't think they would ever
have enough emotion to get through it.
Speaker 3 (22:33):
And I'm pretty sure they won that game.
Speaker 4 (22:35):
And then the next week, you know, kind of fell
a little flat if I remember correctly. And you just
see that a lot of times when teams have go
through things that are tough, and I'm not comparing you know,
a death to you know, a fire in the community,
but it's just you don't know what these guys are
going through. You don't know how many of them had
people affected, friends, family themselves. So it is a very
(22:57):
very tough situation on a short week to go back
and get motivated and kind of run through it all
again against a very physical, dominant team in the Eagles.
Speaker 1 (23:07):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app. Search FSR to
listen live.
Speaker 2 (23:19):
Yeah, the Kid Verse, the Young Kid out FSU look
so good and everybody's all excited. He had the scoop
and score. He's got to go up against Jordan Mailatta,
who is the number one graded left tackle in the league.
I think he's all pro. I mean, that offensive line
for the Eagles is just unbelievable, and I do ultimately
think they kind of push push, push the rams around.
(23:39):
Let me quickly ask you on AJ Brown the whole
reading the book thing. I haven't seen any interesting takes.
I have one. I'm just curious your thoughts on on
AJ Brown reading a book on the sideline or maybe
you have none. It doesn't matter, it's irrelevant.
Speaker 4 (23:53):
You know, I thought it looked very weird at the time.
It definitely look like, you know, Hey, I'm not I'm
not needed here. I'll just sit here and read a book.
I don't need to look at any film, I don't
need to look at the iPad and and anything, because
you know you're not using me anyway, So what does
it matter? You know, that was my initial take, But
(24:14):
it looks like it's just something that he did that
was kind of caught and weird. But I don't know, man,
these these wide receiver devas, they're they're they're another they're
another breed. The guys super super talented, and if I
was the Eagles, my first thing would be to try
to get him involved early. I'm I'm kind of surprised
(24:34):
at the lack of use of AJ, but uh, they
have a clear vision. It seems like of of working
Saquon working the clock, keeping the.
Speaker 3 (24:45):
Ball out of Jalen's hands.
Speaker 4 (24:46):
And I don't know if this is just a fundamental
lack of trust that Sirianni and Kellen Moore have against
Jalen Hurts or not. But yeah, I'm interested in your
take on the whole book reading.
Speaker 2 (24:59):
So they've had some beaf this season Brown and Hurts
and there was the report, remember the was it the
former I forget it was Brandon Graham. Somebody came out
and was set on like a radio. Yeah, they don't talk.
Then we got to patch this up, but made it
a big deal. My guess is AJ Brown went into
that game knowing, Hey, we're running the hell out of
the football. You're not gonna get many looks. And he
(25:20):
brought the book out there as kind of an fu
without being angry guy that hey, I got three targets
one catch. Are you kidding me?
Speaker 1 (25:28):
What am I doing?
Speaker 2 (25:28):
But instead of making a fuss, I'm just gonna be
reading on the sideline like a silent protest if you will,
and I do think your spot on. I will be
looking at AJ brown props this week. I think they're
gonna look to get him involved early, like who needs
that nonsense? I think ultimately I'm probably on Eagles, but again,
teasers way better if I could just tease them down
to win. Really, I love that. Now last game is
(25:51):
we say the best for last, and so did the league.
Baltimore at Buffalo. I gotta be honest, Dave, I'm a
little surprised Baltimore is taking some money now. It's I
think it's pinging around one one and a half pick them,
So it's not like a huge swing, but any early
lean in this.
Speaker 4 (26:11):
One, Yeah, I'm not surprised, honestly, I was. I was
shocked that the books opened Baltimore Buffalo as favorite. I
quickly thought that that would get changed, that that would
flip only because you know, I don't know why, but
just one thing I'd love to do is just constantly
look at the futures and see what the books are
(26:33):
telling you, what the markets are telling you. And Baltimore
has continuously been favored over Buffalo in odds to win
the AFC for weeks. So if Baltimore was going to
be odds on favorite to beat, I mean, we're odds
on favor to win the AFC. When you're comparing their
(26:53):
price with Buffalo's price, that just tells me to me
that the market feels that Baltimore is better than Buffalo.
So that was kind of my thought, and it's kind
of flipped to that, and I'll be honest, I think
it's correct. I really I think Baltimore is better than Buffalo.
(27:16):
You know, Buffalo is better when they have just a
distinct edge at quarterback, and but they don't. They don't
have the distinct edge quarterback. Like the quarterbacks you can
kind of just when I say throw them out, I
don't mean throw them out, because they're obviously the most
important part in the game, but it's like, you know,
(27:37):
they're Buffalo's edge over every other team is just their
quarterback is so much better.
Speaker 3 (27:43):
Well it's not. And let's just look at the other
players on the field. I trust.
Speaker 4 (27:49):
I trust the playmakers on Baltimore. I trust the coaching
staff on Baltimore.
Speaker 3 (27:57):
I was not that.
Speaker 4 (27:59):
Impressed by Buffalo in their playoff game. That game was
there for Denver, and we want to revision his history,
look back at this game and just go, oh, it's
a blow It was a blowout. The Denver Broncos had
a kick at the end of the first half to
tie the football game.
Speaker 2 (28:18):
I saw that.
Speaker 4 (28:18):
Yeah, yeah, And then when they didn't get it, and
Buffalo goes down, it's thirteen to seven and Buffalo has
the ball fourth and one, and they go for it,
and instead of running your quarterback and getting that first
down and just getting the ball in the end zone,
he drops back and he throws a pass to Ty
Johnson that I don't know what the percentages it were
(28:40):
from next gen stats, but I'm sure the percent completion
percentage on a throw like that to Ty Johnson was
very very small. If that ball, if his shin ankle
anything touches on the bounds is thirteen to seven and
Denver has the football. They threw the ball, fine, never
(29:02):
threw the ball, fine, But that play just kind of
turned it. And obviously that's what we're looking at. You know,
when you have Josh Allen and Lamar john Lamar Jackson
is the game can get flipped on one play.
Speaker 3 (29:12):
But I don't know.
Speaker 4 (29:14):
I just don't fully trust the playmakers on Buffalo.
Speaker 3 (29:19):
But I mean I do trust. I do trust Allan.
Speaker 4 (29:22):
I mean, he's insanely good. I've said that he's the
best quarterback in the NFL. Lamar has won me over.
I mean I have to, you know, concede that I
was wrong on Lamar at the beginning of his career.
Speaker 3 (29:35):
I've been wrong on Lamar. You know for years.
Speaker 4 (29:38):
The man is insanely good at at football. I know
that a lot of people just want to call him
a running back at quarterback, the guy's not. He can
throw the football, and in this NFL landscape, you know,
I trust him I trust him. I think they learned
a lot last year with their game plan versus the Chiefs,
and I don't see I don't see Monkin making the
same mistakes. I feel this Ravens teams on a mission.
(30:01):
I feel like Buffalo is beatable in the middle of
the field, and I think that this Ravens defense has
kind of found themselves a little bit the last quarter
of the season. I think it's going to be outstanding
game and I'm not going to be shocked if Buffalo wins.
But my leen is on Baltimore. I like their coaching
(30:22):
staff better, I like their playmakers better, I trust their
scheme more, I like their defense a little more, and
I think that this is the Ravens time. I think
this is Ravens win this game, and then they go
in and they beat the Chiefs. That's my That's been
my thought from the beginning of the playoffs, and I'm
not I'm not changing.
Speaker 2 (30:41):
I think I'm I agree with you that the public
sentiment is, hey man, they didn't really put away Denver
like you. Denver hung around the final score. You know,
they ultimately kind of slept walk to in this most
of this fourth quarter, but it was kind of there
for Denver if they could make a play. Peyton was
being coaching a little scared, I thought, or just nervous,
not wanting to screw up. But my gut tells me
(31:04):
that Baltimore first half on Saturday, where it was twenty
one nothing and it was like three hundred yards to
ninety five at the half or whatever the number was,
seventeen first down to two. It was laughable. I think
everybody saw that and said, this is Baltimore. Baltimore's here,
They're a juggernaut, and I just looked it up. So
in the earlier meeting when Baltimore killed him, three starters
(31:24):
were out in the Buffalo defense, two linebackers and then
Johnson and Derek. Henry takes the first touch of the
game or first handoff and goes eighty seven yards to
the house and it was like, oh boy, and Buffalo
just couldn't catch up. I wonder, what do you think
of this Buffalo defense, because other than that Denver first drive,
they didn't give up much Or was that Peyton's weak
play calling?
Speaker 4 (31:46):
Wow, that was definitely Peyton's weak play calling. Bo made
some good throws, he never gave them a chance I've
been a huge Boneck supporter. I've been a huge supporter
of this's this team, and I was extremely disappointed at
the game plan. The Broncos are terrible a running the football,
the Bills are pretty good at stopping the run, and
(32:10):
the Bills can be beat with the pass. Uh And
I don't really I think that Peyton just kind of
took the ball out of out of bose hands.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
So do the Flowers injury do anything for like, if
he doesn't go, and I haven't seen a report if
he's not her either way, but if he doesn't go,
does that hurt the pass game? And Buffalo you think
just loads up and says, hey, we're not scared of
Rashod Bateman. You know, go ahead, We're just we're gonna
load up on stop Derek Henry.
Speaker 3 (32:40):
I can't get the first meeting out of my head either.
Speaker 4 (32:44):
I was on Buffalo and I think I was dead
I was dead wrong on that game.
Speaker 3 (32:49):
I don't mind, but I don't mind.
Speaker 4 (32:50):
Baltimore in twelve personnel would likely and Andrews out there.
Just everything is open for them. Andrews is a really
good receiver, is a very good receiver. Yeah, the wide
receivers are not great. And Bateman actually impressed me a
lot this year. He's caught a lot more balls he was.
He had the drops for a while, but he's he's
(33:13):
holding onto the football. Just the threat of Lamar Henry
Andrews likely, I mean, that's a physical game, and I
know that Buffalo is missing some pieces, but I mean
that was complete domination. And and look this this Baltimore team.
(33:33):
They go up against Lamar Jackson every week, so you know,
bringing down Josh Allen's not white. It's the same as
it is to teams that go up against But I
mean it works the other way too. I mean Baltimore,
I mean, Buffalo gets to see Josh Allen and they've
been prepping for him. So it's really kind of a
great game just from I mean, not kind of, I
mean it is a great game, but it's a very
(33:54):
interesting game, from the fact that a lot these teams
do kind of mirror each other. They both have physical,
physical quarterbacks, physical running backs, not the best weapons on
the outside, rush good rush defenses, not the best pass defenses,
you know, but I trust hardball a little bit more.
Speaker 3 (34:17):
Then than McDermott. McDermott McDermott.
Speaker 2 (34:22):
But yeah, I do, Oh, I do. I'm sorry, I
do have a little money on this. I I teased
Buffalo up from one to seven in a teaser with
with Kansas City. Kansas City down a bartol. I don't
think Buffalo gets blown out at home?
Speaker 3 (34:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
Oh the teasers at minus one twenty Oh, they're great
through the key numbers. But final question, Dave real quick,
who has a better chance to beat the Chiefs next
week in Arrowhead, Baltimore or Buffalo, assuming who the winner
gets out unscathed, no major injuries.
Speaker 4 (34:57):
I mean, I would, honestly just I think that I
think they both have equal chance. I think it's kind
of a I think d two teams are really good.
In my opinion, they're the two best teams in the
a FC. That being said, anybody who follows me at
all on anything at all knows that I've perpetually been
(35:17):
losing money betting against the Chiefs for years. So it's
not really, you know, earth shattering info that I'm giving
here that I don't really love the Chiefs. I don't know,
I mean, but I'm just going to go and say
that whoever wins this game, I'm rooting for to win
the AFC. I think as NFL watching nation and a
(35:40):
big fan of the league, I'm ready to see some
different games. I'm ready to see some different teams. I
hope that we will have a Lion Super Bowl versus
the winner of the Baltimore Buffalo game. To me, I
think it's the most intriguing, it's the most interesting, and
also I just think it's just fun for just being
(36:03):
able to win in different ways.
Speaker 3 (36:06):
You know, you have a different type of coach in Detroit.
Speaker 4 (36:09):
You have a pocket passer in Detroit versus scrambler in
the AFC, if you get one of those two teams.
You have teams that were built kind of through the
draft versus you know, through the line versus through skill positions.
You know, just all the different ways that you can
kind of build the team bringing in ex players. I
(36:30):
don't know, I think it's just just fun. I'm kind
of tired of the Andy Reid Mahomes thing, but hey,
they were all tired of Brady, and you know, I
loved Brady, so I can understand the Mahomes love. But
I'm just hoping for a better week in of football, honestly,
and I really just hope that all four team, all
four teams that are down, don't give up. I was
very disappointed with kind of the level of quit that
(36:53):
we had from some of these teams. And that's the
one thing that I will say that's kind of concerning
about with teases is in the playoffs kind of things
have a tendency to snowball.
Speaker 3 (37:02):
So in the in the regular.
Speaker 4 (37:04):
Season, when teams take the foot off the gas, in
the postseason, it really doesn't happen as much.
Speaker 3 (37:11):
So, you know, if you're thinking.
Speaker 4 (37:13):
About teasing some of these dogs up, I know you're
looking the other way to tease some of the favorites down.
But when you're looking to teach some of these dogs up,
sometimes the games can kind of go sideways, as we
saw and you know the wildcard rounds.
Speaker 2 (37:27):
So all right, David Baker, great stuff. Hopefully gave out
some winners here, and you know, good luck this weekend obviously, David.
We'll talk to you too, buddy.
Speaker 4 (37:35):
Yeah, I appreciate you, and thanks for having me on.
Always a big fan of yours, and great job with
all your work you're doing with Colin and Fox and
all that stuff. So I guess next time we'll talk
to you preseason next year.
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up straight Firefam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight
Fire for Wednesday, January fifteenth. Got a great guest on
today's podcast. NFL Playoffs this weekend. Who better to bring
in than David Baker, the guy who always enters the
contest in Vegas, has done well in them. Did not
(00:33):
cash this year. He's won them before, which is impressive.
I have yet to get a win get to cash,
which is frustrating as hell. But we go into all
four games this weekend interestingly a lot of agreement. I
told you guys last week it was a teaser week.
Go back and listen to the Park podcast with turnoff.
I know you're not going to, but humor me, and
(00:54):
I mean I nailed the whole weekend with teasers parlays,
like the best teams are. Winter has not been like
a real upset. If you want to go Texans Overchargers,
find a mild upset, Washington over Tempa mild upset, but
like that's not a real upset. If Detroit were to
go down, that's an upset that would shock everybody. If
the Chiefs lost and they won't, that would be one
(01:15):
of the biggest upsets that I can recall in NFL
in recent maybe this century. Okay, is not happening. Rams Eagles.
We talk about that one, and of course then there's
the Ravens Bills game. A lot of people like Baltimore
I am. I'm slightly leaning the other way, but nothing
from me on the straight up on that one. I
did tease Buffalo. We'll get into it. Kind of a
(01:38):
slow Tuesday in sports, which is nice.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
Listen.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
We had college football playoff games Thursday and Friday. We
had NFL Saturday, Sunday, Monday. It's nice to get a
night off. Last night I found myself basically by eight
thirty when I got in a workout, played a little
pick up before I tweaked my damn groin. O. Getting
old sucks. Anyways, It's just a great day and I'm
in bed by like eight thirty getting a little reading done.
(02:02):
I do have a mock draft coming out for Fox Sports.
It's funny. They came to me and they were like, Heyja,
your mockdraft did like bonkers numbers. They would love another one.
I was like, all right, okay, you know what more
winning NFL pick since I went three and oh last
week on the Picks on Fox sports dot Com. I
know too much bragging. Anyways, let's get to our guest,
David Baker, professional poker player and really good contest player
(02:26):
on the NFL front.
Speaker 1 (02:28):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app. Search FSR to
listen live. You know a guy, Jason likes to think
he knows everything when it comes to sports. I know
what sports fans want, but for everything he doesn't. He
(02:50):
knows the guy who does.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows the
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
All right, let's welcome back to straight fire. He's the
contest guy. He just dominates. Also, he's big in Survivor.
But now we're in the playoffs and it's the Division
a round. Great game for Brandon David Baker, the superstar gambler.
Speaker 3 (03:10):
How are you, man, man, I'm knowing great?
Speaker 4 (03:13):
What a fun season, contests, Survivor, everything, and it's weird.
It's hard to you know, flip your mind onto just
one game or yeah, in this case, four games.
Speaker 3 (03:26):
It's it's a whole different thing.
Speaker 4 (03:28):
When you're kind of forced to bet on each game
or have opinions on each game a posted during the
regular season, you can kind of.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
You know, more seek out spots.
Speaker 4 (03:38):
Yeah, exactly, it's a whole different a whole different game,
for sure.
Speaker 2 (03:42):
It's almost we'll get to a short I'm just curious,
how did you guys end up in the Westgate and Circa.
I was a little over five hundred I think fifty
two percent obviously didn't cash, but you know, kind of
proud of some of the some of the weeks. But
how'd you end up doing?
Speaker 4 (03:56):
I think, like I don't know top and I didn't
actually see the final results, but maybe like top fifty
or sixteen Westgate and then outside the money in Circa
they were both outside the money. But I'll be honest,
once we get to once we get to where where
you know, five hundred through a few weeks or whatever,
we we do take different different approaches.
Speaker 3 (04:16):
We do take more of a game theory approach.
Speaker 4 (04:19):
I would actually kind of like to do it one
year where you know, we just have a few that
it's like all just about you know, stat padding and
things like that and kind of.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
See what you can do.
Speaker 4 (04:29):
But you know, if you're if you're down there or
you know, let's say you have a three and two
week on the first week of the quarter or four
and one week, it's hard to really take some of
the freer squares, you know, with the line moves and
things like that, and so, you know, I don't get
artificially worried about like what the actual number is when
you know, I actually play. We play the contest to
try to maximize.
Speaker 3 (04:51):
You know, the ev of each entries.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
So oh yeah, definitely. So let's jump in. First of all,
how was your wild Card weekend? I had just a monster,
but it wasn't all straight up. It was a lot
of teasers and parlays because the favorites, as they've been
doing this season, crushed it. I'm Jay, how did you
end up doing?
Speaker 3 (05:09):
Not that great?
Speaker 4 (05:10):
I started off, you know, my initial reads we were right,
but I don't know.
Speaker 3 (05:15):
I got talked off of both.
Speaker 4 (05:17):
The Texans and the Commanders, which was kind of kind
of sad for me. I was, you know, I don't
know if you remember our preseason pod, but I was,
you know, my prediction was Lions Texans, so I had
Lions Texans in the Super Bowl. I bet overs on
both of those teams. Was I was heavily invested in
both those teams, and you know, I just let the
(05:41):
narrative of what the Texans look like kind of sway
me off of them, and I'm kind of a little
sad about that.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
And the Commanders.
Speaker 4 (05:50):
I don't know, I didn't necessarily get swayed onto the box.
I just didn't end up playing the game. But my
initial thought was that was kind of a toss up
game and three points kind of felt like, you know,
a good there. But overall it was pretty good. I mean,
it was it was fine. My biggest play was by
far the Eagles. That was the one I had the
most confidence in. But I did kind of get worked
last night. I believed in Sam Donald.
Speaker 3 (06:11):
I believe things. Yeah I did.
Speaker 4 (06:13):
I have to say I fell hook line and sinker
for this team. But I mean, more than anything, I
was you know, I was disappointed in Darnald, but I
was mostly disappointed in O'Connell and to a lesser extent,
Sean Payton. In the Broncos games. I felt like both
of these coaches really didn't give their chance, their team
(06:35):
a chance to win. I was really disappointed with Peyton
and O'Connell going to not taking every opportunity early in
the second half when they're down, you know, a touchdown
or two touchdowns to really kind of go for it.
And you know, I saw Sean Payton earlier this season
against the Ravens. They lost forty one to ten, but
(06:56):
I came out like really impressed with him and the
team because early in the game they went for an
on fourth down multiple times and they ended up getting
blown out because it didn't work. But then they stepped
into this game plan versus the Bills, and they're down,
you know, thirteen to seven, they come out, run, run, pass.
Speaker 2 (07:14):
Yeah, I saw that very conservative.
Speaker 4 (07:17):
Yeah, so I was a little disappointed with that, and
O'Connell kind of did a lot of that, even though
the play calls. You know, he did run the ball
more more than I think he wanted to, but I
think he kind of knew that, you know, we have
to try to just get something to free up Darnold.
Speaker 3 (07:30):
But just the lack of pace and the lack of.
Speaker 4 (07:33):
Effort of just trying to push the ball was a
little disappointing.
Speaker 3 (07:36):
But look, I want to give you know, give props
to the Rams.
Speaker 4 (07:40):
They were outstanding last night under obviously horrific circumstances with
LA and everything going on and moving the game and
all that. That defense, oh, very very impressive.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Oh yeah, I mean they've grown up a lot. Last
time we saw them, I guess it play A good
opponent was the Bills, and they gave up like forty
two and before that the Eagles all over them. So
I can understand some of the vikings takes. We'll get
to that game shortly. Let's start with Houston Chiefs. As
we're recording this on Tuesday afternoon, the Chiefs are this
has kind of been pinging around. It was like eight
(08:11):
and a half, then it went down I think to
seven and a half, and now it's up to nine.
I'm seeing. I don't know, man, I can't make a
case at all for the Texans. I guess their defense
could make a fluke play, splash play here or there.
I can't get out of my head, David. The twenty
four zero lead they had against the Chiefs. I'm sure
you remember that at Arrowhead it was twenty.
Speaker 3 (08:31):
Yeah, that was with Watson. That was a whole different.
Speaker 2 (08:33):
That was with Watchson, totally different. But they were twenty
four nothing on the Chiefs and then they lose like
fifty one thirty or something. So I'm sure some people
are going to talk themselves into it, but Andy Reid
plenty of time to prepare Chiefs getting healthy. I mean,
this is a this is the only full side I
bet is Chiefs at eight. But I also love them
in every teaser angle possible under three.
Speaker 4 (08:55):
Yeah, I mean the thing with me is it's really
tough for me to want to lay eight points on
a total of forty one. You know, you're basically your
margin for error there is is really tight. Also, you
just have the Chiefs who just really don't traditionally.
Speaker 3 (09:15):
Go for it.
Speaker 4 (09:16):
They don't particularly gamble, They're not afraid to kick field goals,
They're not afraid to, you know, in the last five
minutes when you know Detroit may just try to, you know,
put that nail in the coffin touchdown. You know, you
know that Mahomes is going to just scramble around back there,
get the first down, find Kelsey's going to go down.
They're going to run the clock out, things like that.
(09:37):
So there's a lot less margin for error. But I mean,
I do see what you're saying. It is difficult to
trust this Houston team that has a real lack of
playmakers outside of Nico, who probably is the best receiver
left in the field. You know, obviously you can make
a case for Puco or AJ Brown, but just.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
A bit about Brown, Mary Terry. But you're right Nico
Commys I mean, yeah, I.
Speaker 4 (10:02):
Mean Nico's Nicos is good or not better than all
of them in my opinion. But the problem is the Chiefs.
You know, they are the best coach team, and Mahomes is,
you know, the smartest quarterback we've seen, you know, outside
of Brady or since Brady, or you know, over Brady,
under Brady, however you want to put it, however you
want to phrase it. He's very smart at game management.
(10:25):
So yeah, I just don't really like the Chiefs in
a blowout situation just because they're they don't have the playmakers.
Speaker 3 (10:34):
But on the flip side, I do get it.
Speaker 4 (10:37):
I do understand that this Texans offensive line is extremely flawed.
In Chris Jones putting pressure on CJ. Stroud, you know,
it's really something. I'm not sure if a light went
on in CJ's head or not, but it felt like
that first quarter against the Chargers, he was playing like
(10:58):
he had played a lot of this year, which wasn't good.
And as soon as they didn't call that intentional grounding
on safety and they fumbled the you know, the next
snap and he picked it up and he ran around,
he threw it. It's almost kind of like he was unleashed,
and he was kind of like, you know what, if
I'm going to go down, I'm going to go down,
and I'm going to go down swinging, and it's just
(11:19):
kind of like a light turned. This is a very
dangerous spot for underdogs. So I definitely see your take
on the Chiefs. And I had a long talk with
my partner who I do the contest with last night,
and he.
Speaker 3 (11:33):
Was all in with you on the Chiefs.
Speaker 4 (11:34):
I can't get there just because I don't really like
laying more than a touchdown with this Chiefs team. I
don't like laying more than a touchdown, but it's a
good defense, and I don't like laying more than a
touchdown when your best weapons are you know, Xavier Worthy,
who can't trust to catch a big ball. Hopkins, who
I can trust to catch big balls, but he's not
really a separator Hollywood Brown. You know he can catch
(11:56):
balls and he can separate, but I mean he really
is still coming off of an injury.
Speaker 3 (12:02):
So I don't know.
Speaker 4 (12:02):
I just don't really trust them to put up a
lot of points. I think I do think the Chiefs
win this game, but I think it's somewhere in you know,
nineteen sixteen range or something like that.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
What about game?
Speaker 2 (12:16):
Could I interest you in a Texans first quarter? Chiefs
basically sat there guys in week eighteen, then had a
bye week. Maybe they come out sluggish. That's one angle
maybe for the Texans. I haven't seen any props. I
see A first half is casey minus six. I just
nothing excites me about the Texans except their corners, who
(12:36):
played really well, but it was against lad McConkey in
some fifth rate Chargers guys. Then again, like you said,
Chiefs don't have any scary guys.
Speaker 4 (12:44):
Well, the thing that I mean it's all going to
come down to can Will Anderson and this defensive line
get pressure on Mahomes and I think he can that.
The Chiefs offensive line has had a lot of issues
this year. But the thing with Mahomes is he kind
of he gets out of it. Even when he gets pressure,
like in these big moments, he seems to evade the
(13:05):
rush and either find a guy or scramble. You know,
So there's a lot of variants there. Do they end
up getting him down or does he pull his Mahomes magic.
I definitely would kind of lean if I'm looking at
props towards Mahomes over rushing attempts and things, because I
can really see the Texans getting pressure on him. I
(13:25):
don't think they're going to be designed scrambles, but look
when the pressure is beating down on him, and we
know that this offensive line is not that great for
the Chiefs. Mahomes has had a propensity to escape and
run in the playoffs, so I could see that.
Speaker 3 (13:41):
Being an angle.
Speaker 4 (13:41):
I do see that the Chiefs might be slow starters.
We do know that they're quick finishers though, So I
do like your angle if you do like the you know,
if I like the Texans to maybe go at it
from a first half angle.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
Washington Detroit. I'm pretty sure every casual gambler and probably
a lot of guys who just enjoy money are going
to have a Detroit KC teaser in there in their account.
Now the both lines. Detroit's up to nine and a half,
case at nine. My guess is a lot of that
has to do with teasers, because now you got a
seven point teaser has to get you under the three.
(14:17):
I like Jayden Daniels running against Detroit that Detroit has
given up a lot of yards to running quarterbacks because
they play a lot of man. It's just tough third
straight road game for Washington. We saw the Chargers wilt
in the second half of a third straight road game,
and I Detroit kind of rested Montgomery coming back. My
one caution on the big spread here is that both
(14:40):
of these coaches are roll of the dice gamblers. And
if Dan Campbell gets like, O hey, we got this
fourth and one from our own thirty eight in the
first quarter and there's a bubble stap all of a sudden, Washington,
Oh okay, we got something here. I just worry about
Washington's special teams. Their kicker, Oh gosh, what a that
guy's Zame Gonzales, that it doesn't have any confidence. I'm
sure you saw him pacing before the final kick and
then he hit the upright. So this is just teaser
(15:03):
action for me and I'll have a money line parlay
with Chiefs, Lions and then Eagles.
Speaker 3 (15:09):
Yeah. I mean, you hit the nail right on the head.
Speaker 4 (15:12):
I think this game, the bigger spread doesn't scare me
as much, just because I feel like there's a lot
more variance on a fifty five point spread and two
guys who you know, it goes the other way too.
As much as Dan Campbell is willing to go for
it and put his team in position to end games
and score and thus maybe setting up good field position
(15:33):
for the Commanders, well, Dan Point has shown a propensity
to go for it as well. He knows he's going
to have to score almost every time they have the ball.
So I could see this game getting out of hand
from on the flip side too, because if they don't
convert those, you know, you're setting up short fields and
we know that the Lions can can convert from anywhere anytime.
(15:57):
I think there's just too many playmakers.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
On the Lions.
Speaker 4 (16:00):
You know, when I saw the line, I thought it
was high, and then when I started diving into it,
I mean, you really just have to find.
Speaker 3 (16:07):
A way to limit mccorn.
Speaker 4 (16:10):
I mean, Diami Brown had a nice game and Zakias
has had a couple of nice games.
Speaker 3 (16:15):
You know, Aklon Robinson.
Speaker 4 (16:17):
Are fine, but you know, they're all middle of the tier,
middle tier skill position players, and to have to constantly
be called on to score and have to score thirty
points a game, You're not going up against this Tampa
Bay pass defense. You're not going up against this Atlanta
Falcons the past defense. I understand that the Lions have
(16:38):
been susceptible, but they're starting to get guys back.
Speaker 3 (16:41):
Angeloni is a big return.
Speaker 4 (16:44):
I think they might have found themselves a little bit
in that Vikings game. You know, as much as we
want to say, was it the Vikings, was it the
Lions that kind of broke the Vikings or did you know,
we find the Lions might have been a little bit
of both. I mean, the Lions might have broke the
Vikings and maybe the Vikings health to shore a little
confidence there. I'm just going to trust that this Lions
(17:05):
team is going to be able to score almost every
time they have the ball. This this Commander's team doesn't
have depth and they don't really have playmakers on the
defensive side of the ball. The only reason that they
stopped the Bucks really was turnover and really just the
Commanders holding the ball, the lack of time of possession.
(17:27):
I feel like the Bucks were kind of able to
do what they wanted. So yeah, I think that the
Lions just get it done. I mean, I can't get
off this Lion's train, but I do like your thought
of finding a way to get this thing down to
the low field goal or whatnot.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
I'm going to put some.
Speaker 4 (17:46):
You know, some of my numbers to work and see
if I think that there might be better value and
just maybe vetting the Lions just to win the NFC,
trying to estimate what I think the chances are the
Rams win that game, and also kind of seeing what
I think the the money line will be in the
second round, because if I really do think that the
Lions are going to win this game, you can get
a little bit over even money. I think plus one
(18:07):
ten or around even money to win the NFC. So
if we can get through this game, we're going to
have a team that's probably going to be minus one
sixty minus one seventy verst the Eagles and probably minus
two to twenty or something maybe against the Rams, and
you're going to have them at even money.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
So that's kind of the way I might.
Speaker 4 (18:22):
I might end up attacking it, but I have to
go ahead and take a look and see, really what
I think that line's going to be posted at.
Speaker 2 (18:28):
Yeah, it's interesting that Sunday game Rams Eagles. I'm seeing
Eagles six, so it's not a huge spread. And what
do you make of this safe? So Rams were displaced,
had to go to Arizona, then they got to fly
back to La Not a bad play. Then on a
short week because they played Monday, They've got to fly
across the country to Philly. I'm seeing temperatures looks like
(18:50):
it's going to be not freezing, but in the thirties.
I kind of like this Rams team fully formed with
Kyne cup Hookah and Stafford and then the defense and
then you know, revenges can be difficult. I mean, Eagles
walked all over them. Do you think the Rams aren't
going to be ready for the run? I just don't
know about that Rams secondary. If you if you come
(19:13):
up on the line, they're just gonna have a j
Brown one on one, and you know he's a machine.
That guy's a beast. So I'm struggling to find a
path to victory for the Rams. But I keep coming
back to this. McVeigh versus Sirianni to me, is the
biggest coaching differential this round.
Speaker 4 (19:29):
Yeah, I mean it's probably the biggest coaching differential in
the in the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (19:35):
I mean, who's who Who do you.
Speaker 4 (19:37):
Trust lead less than Siriani And who do you trust
more than McVeigh other than probably Andy Reid obviously.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
Yeah, but.
Speaker 4 (19:46):
Yeah, this is this is a really tough game because
I love the physicality of the Eagles and thought that
offensive line is just just beastly. But do we trust
do we trust Hurts? And that's the question that you
kind of have to ask yourself because the Rams are
going to sell out to stop Barkley, I think, and
(20:11):
you know it's Barkley able to get off. And do
you trust Hurts if he doesn't? I like Hurts more
than other people do. I think he's fine. But yeah,
I really like what this Rams looks like. I mean,
it's crazy because I really did like the Viking so much,
(20:33):
But now looking back on, you know, they went to
San Francisco when San Francisco needed to win. It was
a little it was rainy, but they held them to
single digits. Then they played the Jets. You know, I
don't think any of us really feel that highly about
the Jets.
Speaker 3 (20:49):
But you know, the offense did move a lot.
Speaker 4 (20:51):
The end of the year, and they basically shut them
down to under ten points. They played Arizona team that
was you know, Kyler and and have weapons, and they
shut them to under ten points. You had a Viking
team come in that was, you know, one of the
top five offenses in the league, and they shut them
down to under ten points. It's tough to lay six
points in a game that Again, I don't particularly see
(21:15):
a ton of scoring. I think Philly likes the limit possessions.
They like to run the football, they like to keep
the clock moving, they like to play pretty slow, and
when you look at the Rams, they like to complete
high and play high percentage completions. So if you're limiting
possessions and you have two teams that I think are
are good, and you have one team with a pretty
(21:37):
excellent coach, I think his his goals to get to
that fourth quarter in a one score game. So I'm
leaning at this point Rams.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
On the money line.
Speaker 4 (21:46):
No, no, no, But the points I don't really I
don't think I really have a strong take at lat
Lean over two to one with the Eagles, because you know,
like you say, this is a really tough spot. You
see a lot of times when teams go through or hardships.
A lot of times that first game they can find
everything that they have to put into it, but then
(22:08):
having to rebound that second week. You know, I can
remember this. I mean, there have been many instances. One
that just always stuck with me was the Sean Taylor game.
I don't know if you remember back when you know,
when he got killed and Washington had to play. I
thought that that was just a time. I don't know
why that game just sticks with me. But they they
(22:28):
went out and they played like so hard for him
in a spot where I didn't think they would ever
have enough emotion to get through it.
Speaker 3 (22:33):
And I'm pretty sure they won that game.
Speaker 4 (22:35):
And then the next week, you know, kind of fell
a little flat if I remember correctly. And you just
see that a lot of times when teams have go
through things that are tough, and I'm not comparing you know,
a death to you know, a fire in the community,
but it's just you don't know what these guys are
going through. You don't know how many of them had
people affected, friends, family themselves. So it is a very
(22:57):
very tough situation on a short week to go back
and get motivated and kind of run through it all
again against a very physical, dominant team in the Eagles.
Speaker 1 (23:07):
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Speaker 2 (23:19):
Yeah, the Kid Verse, the Young Kid out FSU look
so good and everybody's all excited. He had the scoop
and score. He's got to go up against Jordan Mailatta,
who is the number one graded left tackle in the league.
I think he's all pro. I mean, that offensive line
for the Eagles is just unbelievable, and I do ultimately
think they kind of push push, push the rams around.
(23:39):
Let me quickly ask you on AJ Brown the whole
reading the book thing. I haven't seen any interesting takes.
I have one. I'm just curious your thoughts on on
AJ Brown reading a book on the sideline or maybe
you have none. It doesn't matter, it's irrelevant.
Speaker 4 (23:53):
You know, I thought it looked very weird at the time.
It definitely look like, you know, Hey, I'm not I'm
not needed here. I'll just sit here and read a book.
I don't need to look at any film, I don't
need to look at the iPad and and anything, because
you know you're not using me anyway, So what does
it matter? You know, that was my initial take, But
(24:14):
it looks like it's just something that he did that
was kind of caught and weird. But I don't know, man,
these these wide receiver devas, they're they're they're another they're
another breed. The guys super super talented, and if I
was the Eagles, my first thing would be to try
to get him involved early. I'm I'm kind of surprised
(24:34):
at the lack of use of AJ, but uh, they
have a clear vision. It seems like of of working
Saquon working the clock, keeping the.
Speaker 3 (24:45):
Ball out of Jalen's hands.
Speaker 4 (24:46):
And I don't know if this is just a fundamental
lack of trust that Sirianni and Kellen Moore have against
Jalen Hurts or not. But yeah, I'm interested in your
take on the whole book reading.
Speaker 2 (24:59):
So they've had some beaf this season Brown and Hurts
and there was the report, remember the was it the
former I forget it was Brandon Graham. Somebody came out
and was set on like a radio. Yeah, they don't talk.
Then we got to patch this up, but made it
a big deal. My guess is AJ Brown went into
that game knowing, Hey, we're running the hell out of
the football. You're not gonna get many looks. And he
(25:20):
brought the book out there as kind of an fu
without being angry guy that hey, I got three targets
one catch. Are you kidding me?
Speaker 1 (25:28):
What am I doing?
Speaker 2 (25:28):
But instead of making a fuss, I'm just gonna be
reading on the sideline like a silent protest if you will,
and I do think your spot on. I will be
looking at AJ brown props this week. I think they're
gonna look to get him involved early, like who needs
that nonsense? I think ultimately I'm probably on Eagles, but again,
teasers way better if I could just tease them down
to win. Really, I love that. Now last game is
(25:51):
we say the best for last, and so did the league.
Baltimore at Buffalo. I gotta be honest, Dave, I'm a
little surprised Baltimore is taking some money now. It's I
think it's pinging around one one and a half pick them,
So it's not like a huge swing, but any early
lean in this.
Speaker 4 (26:11):
One, Yeah, I'm not surprised, honestly, I was. I was
shocked that the books opened Baltimore Buffalo as favorite. I
quickly thought that that would get changed, that that would
flip only because you know, I don't know why, but
just one thing I'd love to do is just constantly
look at the futures and see what the books are
(26:33):
telling you, what the markets are telling you. And Baltimore
has continuously been favored over Buffalo in odds to win
the AFC for weeks. So if Baltimore was going to
be odds on favorite to beat, I mean, we're odds
on favor to win the AFC. When you're comparing their
(26:53):
price with Buffalo's price, that just tells me to me
that the market feels that Baltimore is better than Buffalo.
So that was kind of my thought, and it's kind
of flipped to that, and I'll be honest, I think
it's correct. I really I think Baltimore is better than Buffalo.
(27:16):
You know, Buffalo is better when they have just a
distinct edge at quarterback, and but they don't. They don't
have the distinct edge quarterback. Like the quarterbacks you can
kind of just when I say throw them out, I
don't mean throw them out, because they're obviously the most
important part in the game, but it's like, you know,
(27:37):
they're Buffalo's edge over every other team is just their
quarterback is so much better.
Speaker 3 (27:43):
Well it's not. And let's just look at the other
players on the field. I trust.
Speaker 4 (27:49):
I trust the playmakers on Baltimore. I trust the coaching
staff on Baltimore.
Speaker 3 (27:57):
I was not that.
Speaker 4 (27:59):
Impressed by Buffalo in their playoff game. That game was
there for Denver, and we want to revision his history,
look back at this game and just go, oh, it's
a blow It was a blowout. The Denver Broncos had
a kick at the end of the first half to
tie the football game.
Speaker 2 (28:18):
I saw that.
Speaker 4 (28:18):
Yeah, yeah, And then when they didn't get it, and
Buffalo goes down, it's thirteen to seven and Buffalo has
the ball fourth and one, and they go for it,
and instead of running your quarterback and getting that first
down and just getting the ball in the end zone,
he drops back and he throws a pass to Ty
Johnson that I don't know what the percentages it were
(28:40):
from next gen stats, but I'm sure the percent completion
percentage on a throw like that to Ty Johnson was
very very small. If that ball, if his shin ankle
anything touches on the bounds is thirteen to seven and
Denver has the football. They threw the ball, fine, never
(29:02):
threw the ball, fine, But that play just kind of
turned it. And obviously that's what we're looking at. You know,
when you have Josh Allen and Lamar john Lamar Jackson
is the game can get flipped on one play.
Speaker 3 (29:12):
But I don't know.
Speaker 4 (29:14):
I just don't fully trust the playmakers on Buffalo.
Speaker 3 (29:19):
But I mean I do trust. I do trust Allan.
Speaker 4 (29:22):
I mean, he's insanely good. I've said that he's the
best quarterback in the NFL. Lamar has won me over.
I mean I have to, you know, concede that I
was wrong on Lamar at the beginning of his career.
Speaker 3 (29:35):
I've been wrong on Lamar. You know for years.
Speaker 4 (29:38):
The man is insanely good at at football. I know
that a lot of people just want to call him
a running back at quarterback, the guy's not. He can
throw the football, and in this NFL landscape, you know,
I trust him I trust him. I think they learned
a lot last year with their game plan versus the Chiefs,
and I don't see I don't see Monkin making the
same mistakes. I feel this Ravens teams on a mission.
(30:01):
I feel like Buffalo is beatable in the middle of
the field, and I think that this Ravens defense has
kind of found themselves a little bit the last quarter
of the season. I think it's going to be outstanding
game and I'm not going to be shocked if Buffalo wins.
But my leen is on Baltimore. I like their coaching
(30:22):
staff better, I like their playmakers better, I trust their
scheme more, I like their defense a little more, and
I think that this is the Ravens time. I think
this is Ravens win this game, and then they go
in and they beat the Chiefs. That's my That's been
my thought from the beginning of the playoffs, and I'm
not I'm not changing.
Speaker 2 (30:41):
I think I'm I agree with you that the public
sentiment is, hey man, they didn't really put away Denver
like you. Denver hung around the final score. You know,
they ultimately kind of slept walk to in this most
of this fourth quarter, but it was kind of there
for Denver if they could make a play. Peyton was
being coaching a little scared, I thought, or just nervous,
not wanting to screw up. But my gut tells me
(31:04):
that Baltimore first half on Saturday, where it was twenty
one nothing and it was like three hundred yards to
ninety five at the half or whatever the number was,
seventeen first down to two. It was laughable. I think
everybody saw that and said, this is Baltimore. Baltimore's here,
They're a juggernaut, and I just looked it up. So
in the earlier meeting when Baltimore killed him, three starters
(31:24):
were out in the Buffalo defense, two linebackers and then
Johnson and Derek. Henry takes the first touch of the
game or first handoff and goes eighty seven yards to
the house and it was like, oh boy, and Buffalo
just couldn't catch up. I wonder, what do you think
of this Buffalo defense, because other than that Denver first drive,
they didn't give up much Or was that Peyton's weak
play calling?
Speaker 4 (31:46):
Wow, that was definitely Peyton's weak play calling. Bo made
some good throws, he never gave them a chance I've
been a huge Boneck supporter. I've been a huge supporter
of this's this team, and I was extremely disappointed at
the game plan. The Broncos are terrible a running the football,
the Bills are pretty good at stopping the run, and
(32:10):
the Bills can be beat with the pass. Uh And
I don't really I think that Peyton just kind of
took the ball out of out of bose hands.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
So do the Flowers injury do anything for like, if
he doesn't go, and I haven't seen a report if
he's not her either way, but if he doesn't go,
does that hurt the pass game? And Buffalo you think
just loads up and says, hey, we're not scared of
Rashod Bateman. You know, go ahead, We're just we're gonna
load up on stop Derek Henry.
Speaker 3 (32:40):
I can't get the first meeting out of my head either.
Speaker 4 (32:44):
I was on Buffalo and I think I was dead
I was dead wrong on that game.
Speaker 3 (32:49):
I don't mind, but I don't mind.
Speaker 4 (32:50):
Baltimore in twelve personnel would likely and Andrews out there.
Just everything is open for them. Andrews is a really
good receiver, is a very good receiver. Yeah, the wide
receivers are not great. And Bateman actually impressed me a
lot this year. He's caught a lot more balls he was.
He had the drops for a while, but he's he's
(33:13):
holding onto the football. Just the threat of Lamar Henry
Andrews likely, I mean, that's a physical game, and I
know that Buffalo is missing some pieces, but I mean
that was complete domination. And and look this this Baltimore team.
(33:33):
They go up against Lamar Jackson every week, so you know,
bringing down Josh Allen's not white. It's the same as
it is to teams that go up against But I
mean it works the other way too. I mean Baltimore,
I mean, Buffalo gets to see Josh Allen and they've
been prepping for him. So it's really kind of a
great game just from I mean, not kind of, I
mean it is a great game, but it's a very
(33:54):
interesting game, from the fact that a lot these teams
do kind of mirror each other. They both have physical,
physical quarterbacks, physical running backs, not the best weapons on
the outside, rush good rush defenses, not the best pass defenses,
you know, but I trust hardball a little bit more.
Speaker 3 (34:17):
Then than McDermott. McDermott McDermott.
Speaker 2 (34:22):
But yeah, I do, Oh, I do. I'm sorry, I
do have a little money on this. I I teased
Buffalo up from one to seven in a teaser with
with Kansas City. Kansas City down a bartol. I don't
think Buffalo gets blown out at home?
Speaker 3 (34:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
Oh the teasers at minus one twenty Oh, they're great
through the key numbers. But final question, Dave real quick,
who has a better chance to beat the Chiefs next
week in Arrowhead, Baltimore or Buffalo, assuming who the winner
gets out unscathed, no major injuries.
Speaker 4 (34:57):
I mean, I would, honestly just I think that I
think they both have equal chance. I think it's kind
of a I think d two teams are really good.
In my opinion, they're the two best teams in the
a FC. That being said, anybody who follows me at
all on anything at all knows that I've perpetually been
(35:17):
losing money betting against the Chiefs for years. So it's
not really, you know, earth shattering info that I'm giving
here that I don't really love the Chiefs. I don't know,
I mean, but I'm just going to go and say
that whoever wins this game, I'm rooting for to win
the AFC. I think as NFL watching nation and a
(35:40):
big fan of the league, I'm ready to see some
different games. I'm ready to see some different teams. I
hope that we will have a Lion Super Bowl versus
the winner of the Baltimore Buffalo game. To me, I
think it's the most intriguing, it's the most interesting, and
also I just think it's just fun for just being
(36:03):
able to win in different ways.
Speaker 3 (36:06):
You know, you have a different type of coach in Detroit.
Speaker 4 (36:09):
You have a pocket passer in Detroit versus scrambler in
the AFC, if you get one of those two teams.
You have teams that were built kind of through the
draft versus you know, through the line versus through skill positions.
You know, just all the different ways that you can
kind of build the team bringing in ex players. I
(36:30):
don't know, I think it's just just fun. I'm kind
of tired of the Andy Reid Mahomes thing, but hey,
they were all tired of Brady, and you know, I
loved Brady, so I can understand the Mahomes love. But
I'm just hoping for a better week in of football, honestly,
and I really just hope that all four team, all
four teams that are down, don't give up. I was
very disappointed with kind of the level of quit that
(36:53):
we had from some of these teams. And that's the
one thing that I will say that's kind of concerning
about with teases is in the playoffs kind of things
have a tendency to snowball.
Speaker 3 (37:02):
So in the in the regular.
Speaker 4 (37:04):
Season, when teams take the foot off the gas, in
the postseason, it really doesn't happen as much.
Speaker 3 (37:11):
So, you know, if you're thinking.
Speaker 4 (37:13):
About teasing some of these dogs up, I know you're
looking the other way to tease some of the favorites down.
But when you're looking to teach some of these dogs up,
sometimes the games can kind of go sideways, as we
saw and you know the wildcard rounds.
Speaker 2 (37:27):
So all right, David Baker, great stuff. Hopefully gave out
some winners here, and you know, good luck this weekend obviously, David.
We'll talk to you too, buddy.
Speaker 4 (37:35):
Yeah, I appreciate you, and thanks for having me on.
Always a big fan of yours, and great job with
all your work you're doing with Colin and Fox and
all that stuff. So I guess next time we'll talk
to you preseason next year.
Host
Jason McIntyre
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