April 24, 2025 • 44 mins
On today's episode, NFL Draft Analyst and Sports Betting Expert TA joins Jason to deliver an extensive preview of the first round of the NFL Draft. The guys dive into the latest odds on different picks and discuss where they believe the biggest names will fall. Jason and TA give their thoughts on the constantly shifting discussions around Shedeur Sanders and break down the ideal landing spots for him and other quarterbacks. Plus, Jason reacts to the Rockets evening the series with Warriors despite a controversial foul that injured Jimmy Butler.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
This is straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
What is up, straight firefam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight
Fire for Thursday, April twenty fourth, also known as Draft Day. Yes,
I have seen the Kevin Coster movie Draft Day. I
did not think it was awful. I did not think
it was great.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
It was just a movie.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
It was not memorable. I actually probably need to watch
it again because I don't remember anything that.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Stood out for the movie.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
I'm a Coster guy, though, so that's why a lot
of people just think it was awful and hacky, and
I just I like Costner. I think he's in some
good stuff, especially Yellowstone. But yeah, Draft Days exciting. I'm
glad they made a movie out of it. And I
submitted my bets to Fox Sports for the draft and
(00:54):
to celebrate the draft. I got my main man Ta
you know him from the NFL season. He's got his
uh his website uh t Clevanalytics dot com obviously for
NFL picks. He does the contest. He has some draft bets.
He offers him the best draft bet that he liked.
Well there that we'll get to them at the end
(01:14):
of the interview. But uh Buffalo to drafted running back
that's spicy and like his logic that behind it is great.
I think you guys will really like it. The draft
tonight is going to be exciting. Obviously, we know Cam
Wore's going one. What happens to shoot or Sanders? Who
gets Ashton Gent? There's not a lot of star power
in the draft. For instance, I love Tyler Warren, the
(01:35):
guy from Penn State. Wait till you get to what
TA talks about regarding Tyler Warren, which is not great
if you're the Jets and you think you're gonna get
Tyler Warren. Doesn't sound like the Jets are gonna take
him anyways. I think you'll really like the uh interview
with Ta before that n b A on Wednesday night
was not phenomenal the Rockets as predicted on this podcast.
(01:57):
I hope you saw the ig post Mona four. They
easily cover versus the Warriors. And the big story is
that Jimmy Butler took a hard fall early in the game,
landed on it looked like he's like tailbone his butt bone.
They're calling it a pelvic injury. He's getting an MRI
today and that could change the series. Now if he
(02:20):
has to just miss Game three. The Warriors could probably
still win Game three without him. But remember this is
a feisty Rockets team, and if you watch this game closely,
I watched this more than the other two. News flash,
we're not talking about the Celtics beating the Magic without Tatum.
Like I that game was like just.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
A nothing burger.
Speaker 2 (02:40):
Celtics never really felt threatened. It's just kind of a
boring game. I am all in on Palo Banco. I
think he's really good, but I just Orlando's just not
in the same area code as the Celtics, and Boston's
just kind of sort of toying with them. Ban Cao
at thirty two, but jay leb Brown had thirty six,
and you know, Celtics kind of went off enrolled. And
(03:03):
the other game, Cleveland, Miamy made a huge comeback and
Cleveland held him off. But again, nothing spicy happened there.
I actually I'm trying to think. I don't think Cleveland
covered and I don't think Boston covered. So the two
double digit favors did not cover. Remember I was reluctant
to bet them, and I looked at moneyline bets on
the two favorites there's nothing there whatsoever, so I passed.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
Anyways, this was.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
The Jalen This is being called the Jalen Green game.
He was the best Green in the game. I think
he had thirty eight points.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
He was just cooking.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Hit eight threes, went off in the third quarter when
the Rockets pulled away. Listen, Jalen Greed is an interesting player.
He is immensely talented. This skill is off the charts.
He's got a huge bag. He's twenty three years old.
To the problem is he's not really under control. He
hasn't really played in a system. I'm not under any circumstances.
Comparing him to Michael Jordan, but it's almost like a
(03:57):
young Jordan in that he gets the ball and Jalen
Green is just going to do whatever he wants and
he could pretty much get to the hoop on anyone.
He's super quick, shifty as hell, handles ridiculous. He's just
a talented guy. The problem is he can't harness it
and he doesn't have all of the skill that Jordan did.
But remember Jordan went to college for three years. He
(04:17):
put a UNC for three years. Jalen Green was in
like the G League and Jyalen's green is he's prone
to take in some wacky, really dumb, just crazy shots
that don't make sense. That being said, he was well
under control in Game two and was unstoppable. What's really
interesting to me is how bad the Warriors melted down
(04:40):
without Jimmy Butler. They reverted to the team that everybody.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
Thought was going to miss the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Steph Curry was largely bottled up twenty points on fifteen shots,
did have nine assists, but with Podzemski six, he was
zero for five. With Butler getting hurt, he played eight
minutes to score three points. They had nothing. Moses Moody kuminga,
I know, Quinton Post hit a couple threes and people
got excited.
Speaker 3 (05:03):
It's like, dude, they got nothing.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Somebody named Pat Spencer, I don't even know who that
is to put in a lot of garbage points Like,
I don't know. I just Warriors.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
Team without Jimmy Butler looks bleak.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
And you could say, Jay, you take the second best
player away from most of these teams and they don't
look good. Well, yeah, except the Celtics just lost their
best player. Tatum is their best player and they still
want now it was at Home Warriors, a little taller task,
but overall, I really do like the cut of this
(05:37):
Rockets jib and I do believe if Jimmy Butler misses
Game three it is a toss up. I think the
Rockets could steal it. Now, can they go on the
road and do that? Is Jalen goong Gren to hit
eight threes again? Probably not, but Shengon is a very
good player at seventeen, sixteen and seven. I like Aman
Thompson's defense. Tari Eason, I'm a big fit. If you
(05:58):
guys remember I was I think one of the the
only guys putting him in the lottery, and it was
this was when he came out a few years ago.
Speaker 3 (06:05):
It was all numbers based.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
His measurements and his steals and his blocks, deflections, everything
he did at LSU. It was like, oh he's got something,
there's something there. He didn't do much, but what he
did was effective. And I love this guy, and I'm
just telling you is a he's a good player. Tory
Easton coming off the bench, like if they're able to
if they are trading pieces to go get Kevin Durant
(06:28):
or try to make a splash for Jiannis or whatever.
Speaker 4 (06:31):
I mean.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
It makes sense. The teams are gonna want Tarry Easton.
I don't want five draft picks. Gimme Reed Shepherd, give
me Tory Easton. I don't know if I want Jabari Smith.
He's okay, but remember he was like a top five pick.
Oh wait, he might have been number one overall?
Speaker 3 (06:44):
Or was he two? He went? Oh he went number
three in twenty twenty two. Yeah, a kid coming out
of Auburn. He was good.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
Anyways, not an amazing night in the league. Now tonight's crazy.
You gotta fire up two TVs. You got the draft
starting at five Pacific, eight Eastern. You got as an appetizer,
nix at Detroit.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Folks, you know Nicks are my team.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
You asked me who I betting here? Is probably gonna
be Detroit. I have nothing fired yet. I'm done with Memphis.
I don't think that's even worth watching. And I actually
think Denver LA might be the most fascinating series. I
think both games decided by a combined five points. So
I'm eager to see that one as well as the draft. Obviously,
(07:27):
plenty of draft coverage tomorrow. Very stoked. It is a
good good weekend for sports. To get NBA playoffs. You
got the draft. I love it.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
Keep it locked here on straight Fire.
Speaker 1 (07:40):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app. Search FSR to
listen live. Jason likes to think he knows everything when
it comes to sports.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
I know what's words stance one.
Speaker 1 (08:01):
But for everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does.
Speaker 4 (08:04):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows the
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
All right, let's welcome back to the pod for a
NFL Draft special. My main man, Ta. You know, he's
got his website, he does gambling, he does NFL draft
free agency. Uh, Ta, how you doing, man, It's a
stressful week.
Speaker 4 (08:27):
It's good, good, Jason Y. I'm finalizing my mock I
entered these mock contests and it's all about pride. There's
no money or anything. Yeah, it's not gambling, but uh
that is probably more important to me than than winning
some of these bets that I have. And I got
some bets that I've got really good value from like
two months ago. So U. But yeah, I'm trying to
finalize it before midnight Eastern here on Wednesday, and uh yeah,
(08:50):
it's always you're so many different pieces of information late,
I don't know what is real, So try to figure out,
try to try to figure out these uh these waters
here as difficult, but it's.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
Yeah, we're we're doing this talk here about eight thirty
Eastern on Wednesday. Daniel Jeremiah just dropped his final mock
draft and it's weird, man, ta I know, listen, you
can't get down a ton of money on the draft,
but it is wild to see as soon as like
Daniel Jeremiah or mel Kiper when they post a mock,
(09:20):
the odds shift significantly sometimes. And I just again, it's
not like those guys it used to do you enter contest.
I've been entering one for like nine years. I didn't
do it this year because we just got back from
Japan on Monday. But like, basically a lot of these
guys are throwing darts they don't know.
Speaker 4 (09:36):
Yeah, I think though some of those guys had really
strong connections to specific teams, and so if you really
studied it, like guys like you know, Jeremiah was very strong,
strongly connected with you know, I think the Ravens and
the Chats back in the day, and then you know
Mickshay had had his connections I think with Joe Douglas,
and I think Schrager used to be like NFC West
(09:57):
like he always had. He was he was close with
a Cliff Kingsbury and you know he is close with mcvaigy.
So like you can kind of pick and choose which
reporters you wanted to really follow closely based on those
specific teams. But yeah, it's difficult. I mean if you
look at some of the those guys enter these mock
draft contests too, and none of them I mean, if
(10:19):
you hit eight or nine correct, you're you're having a
really good first round. So uh, it's tough. It's it's
tough to know exactly who's right on these things. And
and one one minute you'll say, oh, that guy got
this thing right last year that nobody did, and then
you start to follow that that person and they have
a really bad mad drafts the next year. So it's
it's hit or miss. You just have to, uh, you know,
(10:40):
kind of go with your your gut with some of this.
But also we could talk about it. I have a
little bit of a you know, I've run some GM
characteristics h historically that that can help me, you know,
I think can help people with their picks.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
So yeah, that no, that that's an interesting angle that
not other people are doing. So the problem is there's
so much turnover now to ya at GM guys who
have I mean, the Jets hired a guy I don't
think he has any experience. There's just so many new
ones out there, and of course they're usually drafting at
the top of the draft. But one thing you found
interesting was when you hire an offensive coach and they
(11:13):
have a top draft pick, take a guess what happens.
Speaker 4 (11:16):
Right, Yeah, So I went back and we looked since
twenty fourteen, and it's not perfect because not every coach
that gets a job has the same level of power, right,
Like a Sean Payton has different level of power than
you know, Brian Callahan, Right. But generally speaking, offensive coaches
that get a head coaching job, they must yield subpower
(11:39):
because if you look at the top half of the
first round, those those those teams have drafted offense like
eighty plus percent of the time going back a decade,
So you know you're seeing a lot of these offensive coaches.
You know, it's one of those where you know, maybe
the offense has struggled, that's why they had a bad year,
and in combination with that the offense, the coaches get
(12:00):
a chance to make their pick. So yeah, that's something
that I'm looking at. And this year it's really with
the Jags, the Bears, and the Saints. Now I don't
know if Kellen Moore has the same power as a
Ben Johnson, for example, So I'm not really as stringent
on that on the Saints for example, going offense, but
you know, it's something to keep in mind, and it's
(12:21):
something that I've looked at just recently.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
It seems like the Jags one is interesting. They are
a big pivot point. It seems a lot of people
have them going Mason Graham. Jeremiah has them going Ashton Genty.
I thought a lot of that was just smoke because
everybody knows that the Raiders at six Pete Carroll win
now they want Genty, right, so you got to get
ahead of them to get him. So if you're the Jags,
you put up a smoke signal, hey we're taking Genty,
(12:47):
and then everybody will be like, hey, I want to
move up and get him and then maybe you get
some extra picks. But it seems like, I don't know,
what do you believe? You think this is smoke screen
or the Jags want them?
Speaker 4 (12:56):
It's really hard to know. I mean, you have a
brand new GM, you have a guy in Gladstone who's
only third four years old, these real smart, smart guy
from all accounts, and you know, just like the Rams,
the Rams did everything in secrecy. They don't take official visits,
just like you know the Rams did not they don't
take official visits. So you know, you do the top
thirty kind of the thirty visits that you get with
(13:16):
with draft prospects, and you report those that you don't
have to do that if you have scouts that go
within like a certain mile from from college campuses. So
like what the Rams would do is because they wanted
to kind of do all this in secrecy instead of
having all players come to their facilities or them, you know,
(13:36):
having you know, official meetings, they you know, send these
scouts to college campuses and do they do meetings there
and they don't have to report those. So you know,
that's what the Jags did this year. So we don't
know who they've really met with and who they're interested in.
And yeah, it's it's different. It's not like the Rams
had a ton of really high picks when when Gladstone
was there too. So, you know, I think the genti
(13:58):
thing if we go by you know what I mentioned
with the offensive coaches getting a head coaching job, and
you know, we know Liam Cohen coming from from Tampa there,
it does seem to be a lean towards offense in
that regard. And I know Mason Graham was kind of
the default, you know, pick a couple of weeks ago,
(14:18):
a couple of months ago. Essentially ever since this draft
process started at five, everybody just assumed Mason Graham, and
that was really based on the Rams last year going
with Brandon Fisk and Jared Verse and Fisk being a
short armed, you know, defensive tackle similar to Graham is
kind of connecting the dots. But you know, I do
think they want to go offense. So I don't believe
(14:38):
the tech McMillan stuff. I think that's a stretch. And
I thought, like, I mean, Brian Thomas was awesome last year.
I don't think they necessarily need a wide receiver but
I do think Genti's thet I wouldn't take a running
back this high. But you know, in a in a
draft where there's not a lot of elite prospects, you
kind of go with the sure thing, and if you
want to help your offense, I guess it doesn't make sense.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
What do you think? What do you make of this?
So Walker Little is the left tackle on the Jags
and looks like in December he signed a three year,
forty five million dollar deal. He's okay, I don't even
know that he's there like left tackle in the future.
Do you think there's any chance they take Membo the
Missouri tackle who's rising up the boards. He's plus twenty
six hundred to go fifth overall. Trevor Lawrence on his
(15:23):
back a lot. Offensive line has not been good. I
don't know any thoughts on Jags going maybe tackle.
Speaker 4 (15:29):
There, Yeah, I mean, if you want to go off
the board, I think if they trade it back that
would definitely be a possibility. It would be either Graham
or or one of those tackles. Maybe Calvin Banks, I've heard.
You know. That's the thing that's a difficult thing. It's
not like these tackles are elite either. I mean Calvin
Banks and Membu are kind of one, you know, two
three after Will Campbell. But it's I guess it depends
(15:50):
on who you talk to as to who is more coveted.
So even if you thought that it could go tackle,
you don't even know which one. So I think Genty.
Maybe the mock drafters are just saying, well, I know
that's an easy one, whereas Okay, maybe I think that
tackle is a need and they can go that route.
I don't even know which tackle they would take, so
let's just go the safe out and pick Genty. So
(16:10):
uh yeah, I think it's not impossible, but I think
that might be more of a trade back possibility.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
What do you want your brother? What do you want
your Browns to do?
Speaker 3 (16:18):
At two?
Speaker 2 (16:19):
And then what you think they will do?
Speaker 4 (16:22):
Travis Hunter? Both I mean them and I want to
you know, I've been I was tweeting about this back
in I have to look back. It must have been
mid February before the combine when if you remember back then,
it was all Abdul Carter and Shador Sanders. Those are
the two kind of the only two talked about at
number two. And at first I said I want I
(16:42):
want cam Ward, so I want to trade up for
cam Ward. But if not my and this is before
any talk up Hunter, I've said I would take Hunter
and make him a receiver. And then a week later
at the combine, Andrew Berry kind of let the the
the head of the you know, he left the goods
out that he thought that he was going to be
(17:02):
a wide receiver first, and he was the only GM
to come out and say that, And it opened my
eyes to me. That's when at first clicked that like,
all right, maybe they are really interested. So because what's
the point of talking about Hunter as a wide receiver?
And first, that's opposite of what everybody's been had been
talking about. Why would you do that unless you really
have a strong opinion and you really think that that
(17:24):
could be the pick. So that's where the kind of
the momentum started. And then you know, they visited the
pro day, and they visited Colorado during the pro day,
and I had heard that, you know, he just blew
them away both on the field and in meetings. And
so you know this, this Brown's defense has not been
the problem the last couple of years. Remember two years
ago they were number one in the NFL and all
the advanced metrics, they were really good. They made the playoffs.
(17:47):
You know, very aggressive defense led the league in sacks.
I believe last year they weren't terrible. They were top
you know, twelve ish. When you look at some of
the advanced numbers, you still have talent. There're still Denzel Awards,
Miles Garrett, that Michael Hall last year who who played
okay towards the end of the year. So like they've
got talent. It's not completely Barren. I just didn't feel
(18:07):
like adding Abdul Carter moved the needle that much. He's
a really good player. He could be a really good
edge but it just doesn't doesn't multiply when you've already
got a good defense, you already got a legendary edge rusher.
The offense has been horrible two years in a row,
worst offense the NFL. You have to find playmakers, and
I think that's why they think Hunter is really the
(18:28):
only elite playmaker in this draft. When you look at
the wide receivers and you know they're not gonna take
a running back, so it's really it's really Travis Hunter.
And so I think that's how they got to that point,
and I'm happy with it.
Speaker 2 (18:40):
My only problem and ta, if you don't have a quarterback,
you don't have a chance. Who cares if you have
a great wide receiver. And that comes down to boy Stefanski,
a good offensive mind, probably one of the top ten
offensive mines in the league, and the among coaches.
Speaker 4 (18:53):
Would you agree, Yeah, he could take He could take
average quarterbacks and make them make them in his offense.
So why wouldn't you take?
Speaker 2 (19:01):
You to hear Sanders? I mean, that's what I don't get.
They must really not like him.
Speaker 4 (19:06):
So a couple of things. I do think it's still
possible that they can. So when I started talking about Hunter,
I said I would take Hunter and then I would
trade back up. And I think I didn't think Sanders
was ever really a possibility at two. So I think
he could slide to the team from maybe twenty, you know,
trade back up to fifteen, sixteen, and you know, based
on the talent level this year, it's a pretty flat
(19:28):
kind of prospect, you know, drop off when you go
from like pick seven, eight, nine to thirty five, it's
not a big difference. So I don't think teams would
be that that hesitant to trade back, and they're not
going to ask for a number one. Next year. You
could trade from thirty three to you know, late teens
and and only give up you know, your second round
(19:48):
pick and maybe you know a third and then you
know a mid round pick next year wouldn't be that egregious.
And then you take Sanders there, That's what I thought,
you know, just even like a month ago, and then
you know you're starting to hear Andrews is sliding, So
why would you take I understand your point, but the
guy is not a top I have been told by
people that were close close to the NFL at the
(20:10):
guy was at the combine and they told me, then
nobody has no scout, no evaluator has Sanders as a
top twenty pick. That's what I was told back, you know,
in late February. And so, uh, it doesn't it doesn't
really surprise me that, you know, the public is really
starting to figure it out, and that's why you see
(20:31):
him quote unquote sliding. I think he was never a
consideration that high to begin with, So it's it would
make no sense to take him at too. I understand,
all right, just if you like a quarterback, even if
you like him, you can't take him at two. It's
just other ways to get you get them. And and
you know, honestly, he's not an elite prospect. He's probably
I think he's you call him, I don't know Teddy
(20:53):
Bridgewater level quarterback, which which isn't bat by the way,
Teddy Teddy Bridgewater in his prime before the AD. Yeah,
he can be like the sixteen you know, the fifteen
and eighteenth best quarterback, which is perfectly fine. It's in
the Derek Carr range, is in the Kirk Cousins range.
Like you can win with those guys. And I don't
think there's anything wrong with that. And I certainly, as
a Browns fan, wouldn't be opposed to that. But he doesn't.
(21:16):
Nobody thinks he's a top five you know, he's not
justin Herbert. He's not no hell Josh Allen. So if
that's the case, if.
Speaker 2 (21:23):
You go, wait, hold on, time out, tell me you
said Josh Allen when Josh Allen was taken. I don't
do you think anybody thought the kid from Wyoming who
was like fifty six percent completions could be a top
five quarterback MVP.
Speaker 4 (21:34):
Well physically, yeah, physically people did. It was all about accuracy, right,
it was only an accuracy issue, and nobody thought it
could be fixed, and it was. But he did have
I mean, he had came in an arm. He was
very six yeah big. You know, Sanders doesn't have any
of that. He's not he's not overly athletic. He's not
you know, Jaln Milroe, he's not you know, he's just
an average athlete. He has an average arm. He doesn't
(21:55):
have a strong arm. So you know, I guess if
you don't have a strong arm, you are an average athlete.
You're not you know, huge, You're not a big guy.
So what do you what is your superpower? Like it's
very hard to see a guy like that. You know,
those guys don't become elite quarterbacks. They just don't unless
you're in a you know, mister Brock party and a
you know, in a Shanahan system. And even him, you know,
(22:17):
he's not a breeze Yeah. So like, but but Drew
Brees was highly athletic, like he was, Uh.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
I mean, should doors at least as athletic as Drew Brees.
Speaker 4 (22:26):
No, sorry, not athletic, sorry, accurate.
Speaker 2 (22:28):
Accurate ch was like eight seventy five percent accuracy last year. Now,
I know he was doing a lot of checkdown stuff.
Speaker 4 (22:33):
But and by the way, I'm not saying you can't
be like I said when I say Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr,
like those are solid quarterbacks that he'll be in the
league for ten.
Speaker 2 (22:41):
Here's the thing. Let me ask you, though, we watched
a full season with shadoor Standers, Colorado was a dumpster fire.
Before he got there. He was pretty damn good. I'm
not saying he was awesome, but every week he was good.
And this is my issue with the draft. TA and you.
You talked to some NFL people, and every time I
talk to him, this is like an interesting point. All season, man,
(23:02):
that guy's good. He raises the level of his teammates.
He has no running game, no offensive line, and a
lot of the times he was keeping his team in games.
And then you get to the next four months no
games are played, and all of a sudden, it's yes,
Shador can't do that. He cannot do that. I don't
think we are and you start picking these guys apart,
and I just I wonder, is it a little overreactionary
(23:22):
with four months and no games that Like, listen, if
Shadoor goes to he's not gonna go but Kevin O'Connell
or something, he's gonna be really freaking good.
Speaker 4 (23:29):
No, I don't know. I don't think he was that
elite of a prospect during the season. I didn't hear that.
Maybe I wasn't in the same circles, but I just
thought it was kind of by the fault he was
being talked about as a top five pick because there
was no other quarterback quarterback ward. So I don't know. Like, again,
I'm not disparaging the guy. I don't think he's bad.
(23:50):
And I look, I want the Browns to trade back
up and take him in the twenties. That would be great.
Speaker 2 (23:54):
Well you do want him, Yeah, I.
Speaker 4 (23:56):
Would take him because I think I think he gives
you enough. I think the biggest issue with I've learned
in my years of and I've loved the draft since
I was a little kid, and I've had opinions, and
it's just nobody knows what a good quarterback is. I
think that is the bottom line, right, Like how many
just complete busts and how wrong we've been with first round,
(24:19):
top five picks and we just saw Zach Wilson for example.
It's just we are just so wrong about quarter as.
We don't know what makes a good quarterback. So I
am not over You can't be so confident in our
analysis and our projections that we were completely blind to
you know, the potential that you know, maybe he could
be really good. I don't know, but I just you know,
(24:42):
based on who based on the traits of an elite
quarterback right now, he doesn't necessarily possess those, But I
do think he's got a range where he can be
a solid quarterback and in you know, with with good
surroundings and a good coach like he can be very
very solid as a quarterback. So that's just know where
I stay. And I just think those guys though, like honestly, Jason, uh,
(25:04):
if they didn't take Sanders, if they didn't take them,
and wait until next year to take a quarterback, and
again you don't know how you're gonna pick, but quite honestly,
like you know, if if Sanders is typically the fourth
or fifth best quarterback in a normal average quarterback class,
you get those guys every year. You don't You can't
tell me that the Browns are not gonna be in
(25:24):
position to take the fourth or fifth best level quarterback
next year in a draft. You know, it's like or
even better. So it's not like it's okay. If you
don't get him now, you're not gonna get him, You're
not gonna get a really good quarterback like this again
next year, or you don't know that. I just think
kind of those opportunities do come every year.
Speaker 1 (25:43):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
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Speaker 2 (25:55):
So I would largely agree with the NFL doesn't know
how to pick quarterbacks. They don't know what makes a
good quarterback. For instance, Kyle Shanahan trades upper Tray Lance
and it was I mean, he's gotten so lucky that Brockberdy,
the last pick in the draft, turns out to be
a stud, and Trey Lance was a complete and utter bust. Now,
(26:16):
the Brockberdy was interesting because everybody saw him at Iowa
State and it was like, after a year or two, oh, yeah,
he's gonna be a pro. And then he stuck around
and I was like, oh, he can't do this, he's small.
Blah blah blah. I mean Brockberdy some of the stats
you post, the EPA stats for like a two year
stretch he was a top five, top ten quarterback in
the league.
Speaker 4 (26:32):
Nope, yep, yeah, that's that's a very outlier system. I
mean Kyle Shanahan made Nick Mullins, you know, and made c. J.
Bethler like those guys have had good moments. It's not
like I mean, if you put brock Party on the Browns,
I don't think you know, he's he's he's probably the
twentieth best QUARTERBA with Stefanski. Yeah, I just don't. It's
(26:55):
you know, with those weapons, and that's that system is
so good. So again, I I totally get it. And
I don't mind Sanders on the Browns and I wouldn't
mind taking him. I have found a trade up. But
there's no reason to take him at too. You don't
have to. There's just no reason. You can have your
cake and eat it too. You could take a hunter,
have a elite level player there, and then come back
(27:16):
up and take Sanders. And if you don't, if for
whatever reason, he goes too high, you know, you can
find a guy like Sanders or better next year. I
know it's not great. You don't want that. I don't
want Joe Flacco as my starting quarterback this year, but
that's just kind of the reality situation.
Speaker 2 (27:32):
It's interesting, you know, every position has these random guys
who pop through the system and dominate. But if you
look at quarterback around the league right now, Joe Burrow
first overall pick. These are just the TV's leaders last
year and the TV's of one metric. You can look
up EPA and everything. Burrow, Mayfield, Lamar Goff, Darnold Nicks, Rogers,
Alan Mahomes, Jordan Love, Jaden Daniels, Justin Herbert. All of
(27:54):
those are first round picks, every single one. That's staggering,
and a lot of them were number one. We're top,
you know, seven to ten. It is weird, though, like
would you consider bo Nixon outlier or not? Did you
like him a lot?
Speaker 4 (28:09):
Uh? I thought he was. I mean, I wasn't that
high on him. But here's the thing with bon Nicks,
we have to understand like he was, he's probably hyped
up a little bit too much. Last year, if you
look at all the advanced mattrics, he was like the
twentieth best quarterback. People were talking about him as Rookie
of the Year, which made no sense. I mean, Jaden
Daniels was elite and is doing was doing what he
was doing with no weapons around him and a bad defense.
(28:31):
So you know, I think Nix's ceiling is essentially what
you're what you saw. I don't think his trajectory means
he's going to be a top ten quarterback. So I
just think he was really good fast because he was
he was on the top defense in the hand of
Valley at Sean Payton and he kind of hit his ceiling.
I think he hit his ceiling immediately, So we'll see.
I mean Carson Wentz was the same way. You know,
(28:52):
he did that right away, So uh, we'll see. But
you know, Nicks was you know, Nicks was better than
I thought. But I don't think he has that much.
I don't think he's going to improve that much.
Speaker 2 (29:02):
But we'll see mild surprise, although not to you. Jeremiah
has Tyler Warren to the Bears at ten. I would
love the Jets to take him, but they're just desperate
for an offensive lineman. Their new GM is a guy
that there's no data on Darren. I don't even know
how to say his last.
Speaker 4 (29:18):
Name, Moogie. I don't think yeah, no more than me
on that.
Speaker 2 (29:22):
I don't know the guy. I mean, he's a new GM,
but Aaron Glenn. I like I was keeping everything close
to the vest. He's kind of shut down, shut it
all down. So nobody's leaking all these nonsense stories. But
it doesn't seem like they'll take Warren. Where are you
on Tyler Warren?
Speaker 4 (29:35):
Yeah, Tyler Warren is an interesting case because he's twenty
three years old, didn't really do anything until you know,
this past season and just exploded on the scene. He
was just a unique player because they use him in
the backfield. He was kind of a Takesom Hill like
kind of do everything. So he's a really interesting kind
of weapon. Didn't run, so I don't know what his
(29:57):
you know, athletic traits are. And that's the thing with
tight ends is the tight ends that have really broken out.
The Kelsey's and the Kittles of the world, and even
you know, we don't know about brock Bowers because you
don't work out, but the Kittles and the kelsey of
the world are really good athletes. They posted great numbers
at the combine, you can you can look down the line,
(30:19):
like the best tight ends in the league all were
really good. You know, they had really good workout numbers,
and so that is a really good indicator. We don't
know his workout numbers, so I have no idea what
he is athletically, but I think generally he's a good
tight end. I think that he's being pushed up and
maybe Loveland as well because of what brock Bauers did
last year. But you remember, going into last year, everyone
(30:41):
said tight ends just don't make an impact right away,
especially in the first round. It was kind of it's
kind of been a wasteland before brock Bowers. I think
Bowers is a little bit of an outlier because so
good at Georgia, but we'll see. I think that Tyler
Warren to the Bears makes sense just because you have
Ben Johnson there and he had his Sam Laporta, and
(31:01):
I think that's I think add adding that type of
player to and I think Ben Johnson will really use
him in unique ways because he's very, very creative. And
I think the fact that Warren's got some of that
quarterback yep, yeah, played played some some wildcat for Penn State.
I think they'll do that a little bit with me.
Speaker 2 (31:20):
He's a high school quarterback. Now, this is you just
said something I hadn't heard from anybody that Tyler Warren
didn't do anything at Penn State until this year when
he was twenty three. Holy cow, he had as a
junior thirty four catches for four hundred twenty two yards.
Then he went up to one hundred and four catches
for twelve and he had the same quarterback. I'm was
it the same court? No, No, they switched quarterbacks. Didn't
(31:41):
They have the guy Sean what's his face? He was
with the Packers. Yes, they had Clifford forever and then
they ar Aller and then he puts up monster numbers.
Interesting huh.
Speaker 4 (31:52):
Yeah. Now they did have THEO Johnson who was who
was drafted by the Giants last that's probably why. Okay,
well yeah he was he as a late bloomber and
that's the that's always interesting something.
Speaker 2 (32:01):
Then they're hiding him. I didn't realize he hasn't really
I'm looking up, like, what's his forty time? What's all this?
You can't really find much info on him, So they
basically shut him down. Huh.
Speaker 4 (32:09):
Yeah, And that's the thing that you know, we're seeing
more and more of that, which sucks for someone like
me who really relies on data and you know, historical
kind of combined numbers to come up with you know,
where these guys should go. And so it makes me
always makes me wonder when these guys don't run. It's
like Will Johnson, for example, in Michigan. Everyone says he's
a slow quarterback and he hasn't done it. He didn't
do anything. He refused to run the forty and everyone's saying,
(32:31):
what's because he's really slow? So you have to assume
these guys are hiding something. I mean, Marvin Harrison, I love,
I'm a buck guy. You know, he didn't run last
year and you saw he couldn't really separate much in
the NFL, And it's a little scary, like what would
he have run? He wasn't a Blazer at Ohio State.
So you know, it's probably smart to not run because
you want to hide as much as you can if
(32:53):
it's a weakness. But would you draft a guy like Warren?
What's up?
Speaker 2 (32:56):
Would you draft a guy like Warren? I mean, it
seems like they are hiding some.
Speaker 4 (33:00):
To me, I only my personal philosophy is it's got
to be a real outlier case to not take a
premium position player in the first round because you know,
we can get into it. But you know, there's something
called surplus value, which I'm not sure if you've heard
of that, but it's a it's a term that a
lot of the analytics folks really dive into, and it's
based on, you know, who is getting paid the most,
(33:23):
kind of what positions are getting paid the most. And
you know, running backs don't get paid for example, right
tight ends you know, don't get paid big money compared
to edge rushers and wide receivers and obviously quarterback and
tackle that's where the big money guys are. So if
you can find, you know, guys in free agency or
in trade that A're not gonna cost you a lot
(33:44):
of money at those positions at the running back and
at guard and you know at safety, those guys don't
cost a lot of money. So you can find good
players in free agency and just pay them, you know,
pay them that money and it won't won't hurt you
too much. Whereas you won't find edge sures in free agency,
right like those guys do not become available, and if
(34:05):
by chance there is one, you're gonna be paying throughout
the you know, through the nose. So if you can
find those premium positions in the first round of the
draft and you keep them on a rookie rookie contract,
that is extremely valuable. That if you get a rookie
edge rusher who is you know, uh making a huge impact,
like on Michaeh Parsons right, who has been for the
(34:25):
last number of years on his rookie deal. I mean,
that value is just out of this world versus you know.
That's why taking ash Gent doesn't make much sense. If
he's gonna get picked, he's going to automatically be the
I think the fifth or sixth highest paid running back
in the NFL. You know that, So it's like, why
are you doing that? So it's just to me, I
would never take so back to the Tyler Warren tight
(34:48):
ends generally just do not pan out in the first round.
That historically you can find them in rounds three, four, five.
We saw it with Kittle and Kelsey for example, are
perfect examples of that. So I would eight on a
tight end, and obviously someone who's twenty three who broke
out late and doesn't have any workout metrics. To me,
those are all red, you know, flashing signs that I will.
Speaker 2 (35:08):
Damn that's good stuff. So I don't have many bets yet.
Do you have any that you want to fire or
let the audience know that you fired on you?
Speaker 4 (35:18):
Yeah, at this time, I think so. For example, I
took I'm close to the Browns, right, I have over
Shader Sanders eight and a half draft position minus one
thirty about a month ago. If you look that up now,
it's like minus I think it's ten and a half
minus like eight hundred. It's a crazy number. So it's
(35:38):
way off. So you can't that's not available anymore. I
have Abdul Carter. So I when I thought that Hunter
would be the pick of two, I bet Hunter at
about even money at the time to go to I
had abdulk Harder to go three at plus two seventy five,
and they had Sanders over eight and a half. That
was just based on my thesis of you know what
we talked about with the with the Browns. You know
(35:59):
how they're drafts to go and it looks like that's
gonna go that way. So now I'm I think all
of the if you had good bets, it's it's kind
of too late, like there's nothing, there's no real value.
So to me, this is long shot time. So three
long shots that I like. One is not this is
this is one of those draft position you know what
(36:20):
what position a team will take in the first round.
And I have Buffalo running back at twenty eight to one.
And so if you've seen James Cook, is you know,
threatening the holdout? Yeah, I saw that, you know, Buffalo
and Beam the GM. He has taken a lot of
running backs. I think he's gonna running back every year
in the last three years. So he took Ray Davis
(36:41):
last year. I don't think it's out of this. It's
not impossible for them to just you know, move on
from Cook or just you know he's gonna walk and
they take a guy like if Trayvon Henderson's there, you know,
or really really athletic impact running back from Ohio State.
So that's possible. And at twenty eight to one, I
(37:02):
think when you get late in the first round, you
know so little. You have no idea where these guys
are gonna go and what positions are gonna take and
they're good teams, so they're kind of taking best player available.
So I think that's an opportunity. And by the way,
they could trade out of the first round, right, Like,
let's say a team like the Giants or the Browns
want a quarterback. They could trade back ten spots. Yeah,
(37:23):
and so their first pick is a second round pick,
and all of a sudden, it's like, all right, well,
running back is definitely not out of the question. So
to me, the odds don't do the line, so I.
Speaker 2 (37:32):
Would and that's a good bet. Also because Buffalo is
remember when Detroit took Jamior Gibbs, everybody was like, ooh,
that's kind of crazy. They were like a finished product.
Offensive line, set receivers, pretty much, set tight end, set quarterback,
like they had everything. They're like, ooh, this could work. Git,
sorry gent to Jacksonville. They're not even close to finished
right now.
Speaker 3 (37:51):
The Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 2 (37:52):
Running back there, I mean there, I like them, you know,
super Bowl team, right, I mean they could be the
Super Bowl next year. So yeah, I like that.
Speaker 1 (38:00):
Not bad.
Speaker 2 (38:01):
What was the other one?
Speaker 4 (38:02):
And so there's two others I like. So these are
specific players to the draft position. So Mason Graham to
go eighth at plus seven fifty. So I actually tweeted
about this earlier today, and it's funny, I was looking
at you just mentioned the Daniel Jeremiah Mock. He has
Mason Graham going eighth, So it's plus seven fifty at
(38:23):
least it was. I don't know if this is going
to change that. And my theory at the time was
twofold one. Carolina needs a defensive line. They ain't anybody
on defense. They're the worst defense in the NFL last
two years. And so if he drops, if Gent does
go five and we see a little bit of a
drop for Graham, either Carolina could take him or he's
(38:44):
one of the few guys that I think a team
will trade up for. And I think Carolina wants to
move back. You know, they they don't love anybody here.
So I think you get kind of two bites at
the apple. You get maybe Carolina just takes best player
available with you know, a need at the defensive defensive line,
or they trade back and a team jumps, you know,
jumps to their spot to take him eighth. So I
(39:05):
think there's value there. I think that number should be
more like four or five hundred instead of seven fifty.
And then the last, the third one I think is
interesting and I'll give you reasons why. And it goes
into some of the GM stuff. I talked about Jalen
Walker to go ninth at fourteen to one, so he
is being mocked everywhere except for Jeremiah to go eighth
(39:27):
to Carolina. So you're talking one spot back. And so
in my scenario, you know, if Mason Graham is there
or they decided to get a little different route, you know,
he would be available for the Saints. And the Saints
I think are really heavy on either offensive line or
pass rush, and so he fits. And another reason why
I think this makes sense is some of the GM stuff.
(39:50):
So Mickey Loomis, who is the GM for the Saints,
longtime GM for the Saints. He has historically drafted, you know,
guys who are are good athletes, okay, And there's nothing
about about this guy, that Jala Walker that says he's
not a good athlete. He's twenty one years old, Georgia, Georgia.
(40:13):
Guys love him. And the other thing that is really
interesting is Loomis. And I don't know if this is
a coincidence, but I started analyzing about a week ago,
looking at how GM's historically, you know, who they've met
pre draft with these official visits, who they met at
(40:34):
the combine. There are good sites that show these things
and you can see, like how often did they actually
draft a player that they met with. I went back
and Mickey Loomis, there's actually another GM that fits this,
and I'll talk about in a second. Mickey Loomis, I
don't know how this has occurred. They have not drafted
a player in the first round since twenty fifteen that
(40:55):
they actually met with pre draft. What ye isn't that crazy?
And I looked and it's not like, oh, they met
with a bunch of guys that all went above them
where they were picking. It was there's a handful of
years where yeah, they just didn't And maybe they're doing
something behind the scenes where we're meeting with these guys
and it's not official visits, or maybe they just have
(41:15):
enough information they don't want to, you know, you know,
release kind of who they're on, so you know, they
don't meet with them publicly, but they this is just
something that they have done. And I've gone back and
looked and it's it's been over ten years now and
it's pretty incredible. And so I look and Walker is
not a guy that they've met with. They've met with
(41:36):
a lot of edge rushers, a lot of defensive players,
but he's not one of them. So anyway, maybe that's
a coincidental thing, but you know, it kind of ties
with what I want and it fits a need and
fourteen to one I think is really interesting by the
way they get deep. The other GM who has not
I think he's met with one off first round pick
in the last you know, seven eight years is Chris
Greer with Miami, so keep that in mind. But anyway,
(41:58):
so those are a couple that I like and I
think I think have some value. So we'll see. I
like it.
Speaker 2 (42:06):
I like the data on that one. Like Joe, meet
the players and then draft them.
Speaker 4 (42:12):
How about this one, because there's one on the other
side of the other end of the spectrum. And again
this is something I tweeted last year last week when
I just started looking at this. There's one team, slash GM,
who very very predictable in who they draft in the
first round, actually not just first round, but early in
the draft, based on who they meet with. And that's
(42:34):
Omar Khan and the Steelers saw that. Yeah. So you
know where when I look at kind of gms that
have had multiple drafts and how often they meet with
a player and then draft them in the first round,
it's you know, most of these these gms are in
kind of that thirty forty percent range. Yeah, only one
that was above fifty percent. It was Omar Khan and
(42:55):
it was seventy nine and that was on total slid actions,
not even just first round. This he leads all active gms.
Seventy nine percent of his total picks have been on
players that the Steelers have conducted an official pre draft
meeting they have yet to draft up now, he's only
at two drafts. Okay, so small sample, but the Steelers
(43:16):
have yet to draft a single player inside the top
four rounds in these two drafts where they did not
meet with that player prior to the draft. So they
are you know, they telegraph who they're taking, and I
think that's more of an organizational thing. They've been doing
it for years, and so you know, take a look
at who Pittsburgh has met with and you might get
a better insight as to who they might go with
(43:38):
in the draft. I think they're gonna go with a
running back personally, that's why Hampton, Yes, but you know Hampton,
and if not, then maybe they, you know, take to
take a defensive take a defensive back. But that's that's
the centric what I'm looking at all.
Speaker 2 (43:53):
Right, TA, great stuff, The draft is here. I'm excited.
It's it's a little overhyped, but it's still fun, fun
as hell, and and hopefully your Browns make a good
move that you're happy with, and we'll talk to you
again in August ahead of the season.
Speaker 4 (44:05):
Awesome. Thanks Jason,
This is straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
What is up, straight firefam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight
Fire for Thursday, April twenty fourth, also known as Draft Day. Yes,
I have seen the Kevin Coster movie Draft Day. I
did not think it was awful. I did not think
it was great.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
It was just a movie.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
It was not memorable. I actually probably need to watch
it again because I don't remember anything that.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Stood out for the movie.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
I'm a Coster guy, though, so that's why a lot
of people just think it was awful and hacky, and
I just I like Costner. I think he's in some
good stuff, especially Yellowstone. But yeah, Draft Days exciting. I'm
glad they made a movie out of it. And I
submitted my bets to Fox Sports for the draft and
(00:54):
to celebrate the draft. I got my main man Ta
you know him from the NFL season. He's got his
uh his website uh t Clevanalytics dot com obviously for
NFL picks. He does the contest. He has some draft bets.
He offers him the best draft bet that he liked.
Well there that we'll get to them at the end
(01:14):
of the interview. But uh Buffalo to drafted running back
that's spicy and like his logic that behind it is great.
I think you guys will really like it. The draft
tonight is going to be exciting. Obviously, we know Cam
Wore's going one. What happens to shoot or Sanders? Who
gets Ashton Gent? There's not a lot of star power
in the draft. For instance, I love Tyler Warren, the
(01:35):
guy from Penn State. Wait till you get to what
TA talks about regarding Tyler Warren, which is not great
if you're the Jets and you think you're gonna get
Tyler Warren. Doesn't sound like the Jets are gonna take
him anyways. I think you'll really like the uh interview
with Ta before that n b A on Wednesday night
was not phenomenal the Rockets as predicted on this podcast.
(01:57):
I hope you saw the ig post Mona four. They
easily cover versus the Warriors. And the big story is
that Jimmy Butler took a hard fall early in the game,
landed on it looked like he's like tailbone his butt bone.
They're calling it a pelvic injury. He's getting an MRI
today and that could change the series. Now if he
(02:20):
has to just miss Game three. The Warriors could probably
still win Game three without him. But remember this is
a feisty Rockets team, and if you watch this game closely,
I watched this more than the other two. News flash,
we're not talking about the Celtics beating the Magic without Tatum.
Like I that game was like just.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
A nothing burger.
Speaker 2 (02:40):
Celtics never really felt threatened. It's just kind of a
boring game. I am all in on Palo Banco. I
think he's really good, but I just Orlando's just not
in the same area code as the Celtics, and Boston's
just kind of sort of toying with them. Ban Cao
at thirty two, but jay leb Brown had thirty six,
and you know, Celtics kind of went off enrolled. And
(03:03):
the other game, Cleveland, Miamy made a huge comeback and
Cleveland held him off. But again, nothing spicy happened there.
I actually I'm trying to think. I don't think Cleveland
covered and I don't think Boston covered. So the two
double digit favors did not cover. Remember I was reluctant
to bet them, and I looked at moneyline bets on
the two favorites there's nothing there whatsoever, so I passed.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
Anyways, this was.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
The Jalen This is being called the Jalen Green game.
He was the best Green in the game. I think
he had thirty eight points.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
He was just cooking.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Hit eight threes, went off in the third quarter when
the Rockets pulled away. Listen, Jalen Greed is an interesting player.
He is immensely talented. This skill is off the charts.
He's got a huge bag. He's twenty three years old.
To the problem is he's not really under control. He
hasn't really played in a system. I'm not under any circumstances.
Comparing him to Michael Jordan, but it's almost like a
(03:57):
young Jordan in that he gets the ball and Jalen
Green is just going to do whatever he wants and
he could pretty much get to the hoop on anyone.
He's super quick, shifty as hell, handles ridiculous. He's just
a talented guy. The problem is he can't harness it
and he doesn't have all of the skill that Jordan did.
But remember Jordan went to college for three years. He
(04:17):
put a UNC for three years. Jalen Green was in
like the G League and Jyalen's green is he's prone
to take in some wacky, really dumb, just crazy shots
that don't make sense. That being said, he was well
under control in Game two and was unstoppable. What's really
interesting to me is how bad the Warriors melted down
(04:40):
without Jimmy Butler. They reverted to the team that everybody.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
Thought was going to miss the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Steph Curry was largely bottled up twenty points on fifteen shots,
did have nine assists, but with Podzemski six, he was
zero for five. With Butler getting hurt, he played eight
minutes to score three points. They had nothing. Moses Moody kuminga,
I know, Quinton Post hit a couple threes and people
got excited.
Speaker 3 (05:03):
It's like, dude, they got nothing.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Somebody named Pat Spencer, I don't even know who that
is to put in a lot of garbage points Like,
I don't know. I just Warriors.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
Team without Jimmy Butler looks bleak.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
And you could say, Jay, you take the second best
player away from most of these teams and they don't
look good. Well, yeah, except the Celtics just lost their
best player. Tatum is their best player and they still
want now it was at Home Warriors, a little taller task,
but overall, I really do like the cut of this
(05:37):
Rockets jib and I do believe if Jimmy Butler misses
Game three it is a toss up. I think the
Rockets could steal it. Now, can they go on the
road and do that? Is Jalen goong Gren to hit
eight threes again? Probably not, but Shengon is a very
good player at seventeen, sixteen and seven. I like Aman
Thompson's defense. Tari Eason, I'm a big fit. If you
(05:58):
guys remember I was I think one of the the
only guys putting him in the lottery, and it was
this was when he came out a few years ago.
Speaker 3 (06:05):
It was all numbers based.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
His measurements and his steals and his blocks, deflections, everything
he did at LSU. It was like, oh he's got something,
there's something there. He didn't do much, but what he
did was effective. And I love this guy, and I'm
just telling you is a he's a good player. Tory
Easton coming off the bench, like if they're able to
if they are trading pieces to go get Kevin Durant
(06:28):
or try to make a splash for Jiannis or whatever.
Speaker 4 (06:31):
I mean.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
It makes sense. The teams are gonna want Tarry Easton.
I don't want five draft picks. Gimme Reed Shepherd, give
me Tory Easton. I don't know if I want Jabari Smith.
He's okay, but remember he was like a top five pick.
Oh wait, he might have been number one overall?
Speaker 3 (06:44):
Or was he two? He went? Oh he went number
three in twenty twenty two. Yeah, a kid coming out
of Auburn. He was good.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
Anyways, not an amazing night in the league. Now tonight's crazy.
You gotta fire up two TVs. You got the draft
starting at five Pacific, eight Eastern. You got as an appetizer,
nix at Detroit.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Folks, you know Nicks are my team.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
You asked me who I betting here? Is probably gonna
be Detroit. I have nothing fired yet. I'm done with Memphis.
I don't think that's even worth watching. And I actually
think Denver LA might be the most fascinating series. I
think both games decided by a combined five points. So
I'm eager to see that one as well as the draft. Obviously,
(07:27):
plenty of draft coverage tomorrow. Very stoked. It is a
good good weekend for sports. To get NBA playoffs. You
got the draft. I love it.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
Keep it locked here on straight Fire.
Speaker 1 (07:40):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app. Search FSR to
listen live. Jason likes to think he knows everything when
it comes to sports.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
I know what's words stance one.
Speaker 1 (08:01):
But for everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does.
Speaker 4 (08:04):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows the
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
All right, let's welcome back to the pod for a
NFL Draft special. My main man, Ta. You know, he's
got his website, he does gambling, he does NFL draft
free agency. Uh, Ta, how you doing, man, It's a
stressful week.
Speaker 4 (08:27):
It's good, good, Jason Y. I'm finalizing my mock I
entered these mock contests and it's all about pride. There's
no money or anything. Yeah, it's not gambling, but uh
that is probably more important to me than than winning
some of these bets that I have. And I got
some bets that I've got really good value from like
two months ago. So U. But yeah, I'm trying to
finalize it before midnight Eastern here on Wednesday, and uh yeah,
(08:50):
it's always you're so many different pieces of information late,
I don't know what is real, So try to figure out,
try to try to figure out these uh these waters
here as difficult, but it's.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
Yeah, we're we're doing this talk here about eight thirty
Eastern on Wednesday. Daniel Jeremiah just dropped his final mock
draft and it's weird, man, ta I know, listen, you
can't get down a ton of money on the draft,
but it is wild to see as soon as like
Daniel Jeremiah or mel Kiper when they post a mock,
(09:20):
the odds shift significantly sometimes. And I just again, it's
not like those guys it used to do you enter contest.
I've been entering one for like nine years. I didn't
do it this year because we just got back from
Japan on Monday. But like, basically a lot of these
guys are throwing darts they don't know.
Speaker 4 (09:36):
Yeah, I think though some of those guys had really
strong connections to specific teams, and so if you really
studied it, like guys like you know, Jeremiah was very strong,
strongly connected with you know, I think the Ravens and
the Chats back in the day, and then you know
Mickshay had had his connections I think with Joe Douglas,
and I think Schrager used to be like NFC West
(09:57):
like he always had. He was he was close with
a Cliff Kingsbury and you know he is close with mcvaigy.
So like you can kind of pick and choose which
reporters you wanted to really follow closely based on those
specific teams. But yeah, it's difficult. I mean if you
look at some of the those guys enter these mock
draft contests too, and none of them I mean, if
(10:19):
you hit eight or nine correct, you're you're having a
really good first round. So uh, it's tough. It's it's
tough to know exactly who's right on these things. And
and one one minute you'll say, oh, that guy got
this thing right last year that nobody did, and then
you start to follow that that person and they have
a really bad mad drafts the next year. So it's
it's hit or miss. You just have to, uh, you know,
(10:40):
kind of go with your your gut with some of this.
But also we could talk about it. I have a
little bit of a you know, I've run some GM
characteristics h historically that that can help me, you know,
I think can help people with their picks.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
So yeah, that no, that that's an interesting angle that
not other people are doing. So the problem is there's
so much turnover now to ya at GM guys who
have I mean, the Jets hired a guy I don't
think he has any experience. There's just so many new
ones out there, and of course they're usually drafting at
the top of the draft. But one thing you found
interesting was when you hire an offensive coach and they
(11:13):
have a top draft pick, take a guess what happens.
Speaker 4 (11:16):
Right, Yeah, So I went back and we looked since
twenty fourteen, and it's not perfect because not every coach
that gets a job has the same level of power, right,
Like a Sean Payton has different level of power than
you know, Brian Callahan, Right. But generally speaking, offensive coaches
that get a head coaching job, they must yield subpower
(11:39):
because if you look at the top half of the
first round, those those those teams have drafted offense like
eighty plus percent of the time going back a decade,
So you know you're seeing a lot of these offensive coaches.
You know, it's one of those where you know, maybe
the offense has struggled, that's why they had a bad year,
and in combination with that the offense, the coaches get
(12:00):
a chance to make their pick. So yeah, that's something
that I'm looking at. And this year it's really with
the Jags, the Bears, and the Saints. Now I don't
know if Kellen Moore has the same power as a
Ben Johnson, for example, So I'm not really as stringent
on that on the Saints for example, going offense, but
you know, it's something to keep in mind, and it's
(12:21):
something that I've looked at just recently.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
It seems like the Jags one is interesting. They are
a big pivot point. It seems a lot of people
have them going Mason Graham. Jeremiah has them going Ashton Genty.
I thought a lot of that was just smoke because
everybody knows that the Raiders at six Pete Carroll win
now they want Genty, right, so you got to get
ahead of them to get him. So if you're the Jags,
you put up a smoke signal, hey we're taking Genty,
(12:47):
and then everybody will be like, hey, I want to
move up and get him and then maybe you get
some extra picks. But it seems like, I don't know,
what do you believe? You think this is smoke screen
or the Jags want them?
Speaker 4 (12:56):
It's really hard to know. I mean, you have a
brand new GM, you have a guy in Gladstone who's
only third four years old, these real smart, smart guy
from all accounts, and you know, just like the Rams,
the Rams did everything in secrecy. They don't take official visits,
just like you know the Rams did not they don't
take official visits. So you know, you do the top
thirty kind of the thirty visits that you get with
(13:16):
with draft prospects, and you report those that you don't
have to do that if you have scouts that go
within like a certain mile from from college campuses. So
like what the Rams would do is because they wanted
to kind of do all this in secrecy instead of
having all players come to their facilities or them, you know,
(13:36):
having you know, official meetings, they you know, send these
scouts to college campuses and do they do meetings there
and they don't have to report those. So you know,
that's what the Jags did this year. So we don't
know who they've really met with and who they're interested in.
And yeah, it's it's different. It's not like the Rams
had a ton of really high picks when when Gladstone
was there too. So, you know, I think the genti
(13:58):
thing if we go by you know what I mentioned
with the offensive coaches getting a head coaching job, and
you know, we know Liam Cohen coming from from Tampa there,
it does seem to be a lean towards offense in
that regard. And I know Mason Graham was kind of
the default, you know, pick a couple of weeks ago,
(14:18):
a couple of months ago. Essentially ever since this draft
process started at five, everybody just assumed Mason Graham, and
that was really based on the Rams last year going
with Brandon Fisk and Jared Verse and Fisk being a
short armed, you know, defensive tackle similar to Graham is
kind of connecting the dots. But you know, I do
think they want to go offense. So I don't believe
(14:38):
the tech McMillan stuff. I think that's a stretch. And
I thought, like, I mean, Brian Thomas was awesome last year.
I don't think they necessarily need a wide receiver but
I do think Genti's thet I wouldn't take a running
back this high. But you know, in a in a
draft where there's not a lot of elite prospects, you
kind of go with the sure thing, and if you
want to help your offense, I guess it doesn't make sense.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
What do you think? What do you make of this?
So Walker Little is the left tackle on the Jags
and looks like in December he signed a three year,
forty five million dollar deal. He's okay, I don't even
know that he's there like left tackle in the future.
Do you think there's any chance they take Membo the
Missouri tackle who's rising up the boards. He's plus twenty
six hundred to go fifth overall. Trevor Lawrence on his
(15:23):
back a lot. Offensive line has not been good. I
don't know any thoughts on Jags going maybe tackle.
Speaker 4 (15:29):
There, Yeah, I mean, if you want to go off
the board, I think if they trade it back that
would definitely be a possibility. It would be either Graham
or or one of those tackles. Maybe Calvin Banks, I've heard.
You know. That's the thing that's a difficult thing. It's
not like these tackles are elite either. I mean Calvin
Banks and Membu are kind of one, you know, two
three after Will Campbell. But it's I guess it depends
(15:50):
on who you talk to as to who is more coveted.
So even if you thought that it could go tackle,
you don't even know which one. So I think Genty.
Maybe the mock drafters are just saying, well, I know
that's an easy one, whereas Okay, maybe I think that
tackle is a need and they can go that route.
I don't even know which tackle they would take, so
let's just go the safe out and pick Genty. So
(16:10):
uh yeah, I think it's not impossible, but I think
that might be more of a trade back possibility.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
What do you want your brother? What do you want
your Browns to do?
Speaker 3 (16:18):
At two?
Speaker 2 (16:19):
And then what you think they will do?
Speaker 4 (16:22):
Travis Hunter? Both I mean them and I want to
you know, I've been I was tweeting about this back
in I have to look back. It must have been
mid February before the combine when if you remember back then,
it was all Abdul Carter and Shador Sanders. Those are
the two kind of the only two talked about at
number two. And at first I said I want I
(16:42):
want cam Ward, so I want to trade up for
cam Ward. But if not my and this is before
any talk up Hunter, I've said I would take Hunter
and make him a receiver. And then a week later
at the combine, Andrew Berry kind of let the the
the head of the you know, he left the goods
out that he thought that he was going to be
(17:02):
a wide receiver first, and he was the only GM
to come out and say that, And it opened my
eyes to me. That's when at first clicked that like,
all right, maybe they are really interested. So because what's
the point of talking about Hunter as a wide receiver?
And first, that's opposite of what everybody's been had been
talking about. Why would you do that unless you really
have a strong opinion and you really think that that
(17:24):
could be the pick. So that's where the kind of
the momentum started. And then you know, they visited the
pro day, and they visited Colorado during the pro day,
and I had heard that, you know, he just blew
them away both on the field and in meetings. And
so you know this, this Brown's defense has not been
the problem the last couple of years. Remember two years
ago they were number one in the NFL and all
the advanced metrics, they were really good. They made the playoffs.
(17:47):
You know, very aggressive defense led the league in sacks.
I believe last year they weren't terrible. They were top
you know, twelve ish. When you look at some of
the advanced numbers, you still have talent. There're still Denzel Awards,
Miles Garrett, that Michael Hall last year who who played
okay towards the end of the year. So like they've
got talent. It's not completely Barren. I just didn't feel
(18:07):
like adding Abdul Carter moved the needle that much. He's
a really good player. He could be a really good
edge but it just doesn't doesn't multiply when you've already
got a good defense, you already got a legendary edge rusher.
The offense has been horrible two years in a row,
worst offense the NFL. You have to find playmakers, and
I think that's why they think Hunter is really the
(18:28):
only elite playmaker in this draft. When you look at
the wide receivers and you know they're not gonna take
a running back, so it's really it's really Travis Hunter.
And so I think that's how they got to that point,
and I'm happy with it.
Speaker 2 (18:40):
My only problem and ta, if you don't have a quarterback,
you don't have a chance. Who cares if you have
a great wide receiver. And that comes down to boy Stefanski,
a good offensive mind, probably one of the top ten
offensive mines in the league, and the among coaches.
Speaker 4 (18:53):
Would you agree, Yeah, he could take He could take
average quarterbacks and make them make them in his offense.
So why wouldn't you take?
Speaker 2 (19:01):
You to hear Sanders? I mean, that's what I don't get.
They must really not like him.
Speaker 4 (19:06):
So a couple of things. I do think it's still
possible that they can. So when I started talking about Hunter,
I said I would take Hunter and then I would
trade back up. And I think I didn't think Sanders
was ever really a possibility at two. So I think
he could slide to the team from maybe twenty, you know,
trade back up to fifteen, sixteen, and you know, based
on the talent level this year, it's a pretty flat
(19:28):
kind of prospect, you know, drop off when you go
from like pick seven, eight, nine to thirty five, it's
not a big difference. So I don't think teams would
be that that hesitant to trade back, and they're not
going to ask for a number one. Next year. You
could trade from thirty three to you know, late teens
and and only give up you know, your second round
(19:48):
pick and maybe you know a third and then you
know a mid round pick next year wouldn't be that egregious.
And then you take Sanders there, That's what I thought,
you know, just even like a month ago, and then
you know you're starting to hear Andrews is sliding, So
why would you take I understand your point, but the
guy is not a top I have been told by
people that were close close to the NFL at the
(20:10):
guy was at the combine and they told me, then
nobody has no scout, no evaluator has Sanders as a
top twenty pick. That's what I was told back, you know,
in late February. And so, uh, it doesn't it doesn't
really surprise me that, you know, the public is really
starting to figure it out, and that's why you see
(20:31):
him quote unquote sliding. I think he was never a
consideration that high to begin with, So it's it would
make no sense to take him at too. I understand,
all right, just if you like a quarterback, even if
you like him, you can't take him at two. It's
just other ways to get you get them. And and
you know, honestly, he's not an elite prospect. He's probably
I think he's you call him, I don't know Teddy
(20:53):
Bridgewater level quarterback, which which isn't bat by the way,
Teddy Teddy Bridgewater in his prime before the AD. Yeah,
he can be like the sixteen you know, the fifteen
and eighteenth best quarterback, which is perfectly fine. It's in
the Derek Carr range, is in the Kirk Cousins range.
Like you can win with those guys. And I don't
think there's anything wrong with that. And I certainly, as
a Browns fan, wouldn't be opposed to that. But he doesn't.
(21:16):
Nobody thinks he's a top five you know, he's not
justin Herbert. He's not no hell Josh Allen. So if
that's the case, if.
Speaker 2 (21:23):
You go, wait, hold on, time out, tell me you
said Josh Allen when Josh Allen was taken. I don't
do you think anybody thought the kid from Wyoming who
was like fifty six percent completions could be a top
five quarterback MVP.
Speaker 4 (21:34):
Well physically, yeah, physically people did. It was all about accuracy, right,
it was only an accuracy issue, and nobody thought it
could be fixed, and it was. But he did have
I mean, he had came in an arm. He was
very six yeah big. You know, Sanders doesn't have any
of that. He's not he's not overly athletic. He's not
you know, Jaln Milroe, he's not you know, he's just
an average athlete. He has an average arm. He doesn't
(21:55):
have a strong arm. So you know, I guess if
you don't have a strong arm, you are an average athlete.
You're not you know, huge, You're not a big guy.
So what do you what is your superpower? Like it's
very hard to see a guy like that. You know,
those guys don't become elite quarterbacks. They just don't unless
you're in a you know, mister Brock party and a
you know, in a Shanahan system. And even him, you know,
(22:17):
he's not a breeze Yeah. So like, but but Drew
Brees was highly athletic, like he was, Uh.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
I mean, should doors at least as athletic as Drew Brees.
Speaker 4 (22:26):
No, sorry, not athletic, sorry, accurate.
Speaker 2 (22:28):
Accurate ch was like eight seventy five percent accuracy last year. Now,
I know he was doing a lot of checkdown stuff.
Speaker 4 (22:33):
But and by the way, I'm not saying you can't
be like I said when I say Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr,
like those are solid quarterbacks that he'll be in the
league for ten.
Speaker 2 (22:41):
Here's the thing. Let me ask you, though, we watched
a full season with shadoor Standers, Colorado was a dumpster fire.
Before he got there. He was pretty damn good. I'm
not saying he was awesome, but every week he was good.
And this is my issue with the draft. TA and you.
You talked to some NFL people, and every time I
talk to him, this is like an interesting point. All season, man,
(23:02):
that guy's good. He raises the level of his teammates.
He has no running game, no offensive line, and a
lot of the times he was keeping his team in games.
And then you get to the next four months no
games are played, and all of a sudden, it's yes,
Shador can't do that. He cannot do that. I don't
think we are and you start picking these guys apart,
and I just I wonder, is it a little overreactionary
(23:22):
with four months and no games that Like, listen, if
Shadoor goes to he's not gonna go but Kevin O'Connell
or something, he's gonna be really freaking good.
Speaker 4 (23:29):
No, I don't know. I don't think he was that
elite of a prospect during the season. I didn't hear that.
Maybe I wasn't in the same circles, but I just
thought it was kind of by the fault he was
being talked about as a top five pick because there
was no other quarterback quarterback ward. So I don't know. Like, again,
I'm not disparaging the guy. I don't think he's bad.
(23:50):
And I look, I want the Browns to trade back
up and take him in the twenties. That would be great.
Speaker 2 (23:54):
Well you do want him, Yeah, I.
Speaker 4 (23:56):
Would take him because I think I think he gives
you enough. I think the biggest issue with I've learned
in my years of and I've loved the draft since
I was a little kid, and I've had opinions, and
it's just nobody knows what a good quarterback is. I
think that is the bottom line, right, Like how many
just complete busts and how wrong we've been with first round,
(24:19):
top five picks and we just saw Zach Wilson for example.
It's just we are just so wrong about quarter as.
We don't know what makes a good quarterback. So I
am not over You can't be so confident in our
analysis and our projections that we were completely blind to
you know, the potential that you know, maybe he could
be really good. I don't know, but I just you know,
(24:42):
based on who based on the traits of an elite
quarterback right now, he doesn't necessarily possess those, But I
do think he's got a range where he can be
a solid quarterback and in you know, with with good
surroundings and a good coach like he can be very
very solid as a quarterback. So that's just know where
I stay. And I just think those guys though, like honestly, Jason, uh,
(25:04):
if they didn't take Sanders, if they didn't take them,
and wait until next year to take a quarterback, and
again you don't know how you're gonna pick, but quite honestly,
like you know, if if Sanders is typically the fourth
or fifth best quarterback in a normal average quarterback class,
you get those guys every year. You don't You can't
tell me that the Browns are not gonna be in
(25:24):
position to take the fourth or fifth best level quarterback
next year in a draft. You know, it's like or
even better. So it's not like it's okay. If you
don't get him now, you're not gonna get him, You're
not gonna get a really good quarterback like this again
next year, or you don't know that. I just think
kind of those opportunities do come every year.
Speaker 1 (25:43):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to
listen live.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
So I would largely agree with the NFL doesn't know
how to pick quarterbacks. They don't know what makes a
good quarterback. For instance, Kyle Shanahan trades upper Tray Lance
and it was I mean, he's gotten so lucky that Brockberdy,
the last pick in the draft, turns out to be
a stud, and Trey Lance was a complete and utter bust. Now,
(26:16):
the Brockberdy was interesting because everybody saw him at Iowa
State and it was like, after a year or two, oh, yeah,
he's gonna be a pro. And then he stuck around
and I was like, oh, he can't do this, he's small.
Blah blah blah. I mean Brockberdy some of the stats
you post, the EPA stats for like a two year
stretch he was a top five, top ten quarterback in
the league.
Speaker 4 (26:32):
Nope, yep, yeah, that's that's a very outlier system. I
mean Kyle Shanahan made Nick Mullins, you know, and made c. J.
Bethler like those guys have had good moments. It's not
like I mean, if you put brock Party on the Browns,
I don't think you know, he's he's he's probably the
twentieth best QUARTERBA with Stefanski. Yeah, I just don't. It's
(26:55):
you know, with those weapons, and that's that system is
so good. So again, I I totally get it. And
I don't mind Sanders on the Browns and I wouldn't
mind taking him. I have found a trade up. But
there's no reason to take him at too. You don't
have to. There's just no reason. You can have your
cake and eat it too. You could take a hunter,
have a elite level player there, and then come back
(27:16):
up and take Sanders. And if you don't, if for
whatever reason, he goes too high, you know, you can
find a guy like Sanders or better next year. I
know it's not great. You don't want that. I don't
want Joe Flacco as my starting quarterback this year, but
that's just kind of the reality situation.
Speaker 2 (27:32):
It's interesting, you know, every position has these random guys
who pop through the system and dominate. But if you
look at quarterback around the league right now, Joe Burrow
first overall pick. These are just the TV's leaders last
year and the TV's of one metric. You can look
up EPA and everything. Burrow, Mayfield, Lamar Goff, Darnold Nicks, Rogers,
Alan Mahomes, Jordan Love, Jaden Daniels, Justin Herbert. All of
(27:54):
those are first round picks, every single one. That's staggering,
and a lot of them were number one. We're top,
you know, seven to ten. It is weird, though, like
would you consider bo Nixon outlier or not? Did you
like him a lot?
Speaker 4 (28:09):
Uh? I thought he was. I mean, I wasn't that
high on him. But here's the thing with bon Nicks,
we have to understand like he was, he's probably hyped
up a little bit too much. Last year, if you
look at all the advanced mattrics, he was like the
twentieth best quarterback. People were talking about him as Rookie
of the Year, which made no sense. I mean, Jaden
Daniels was elite and is doing was doing what he
was doing with no weapons around him and a bad defense.
(28:31):
So you know, I think Nix's ceiling is essentially what
you're what you saw. I don't think his trajectory means
he's going to be a top ten quarterback. So I
just think he was really good fast because he was
he was on the top defense in the hand of
Valley at Sean Payton and he kind of hit his ceiling.
I think he hit his ceiling immediately, So we'll see.
I mean Carson Wentz was the same way. You know,
(28:52):
he did that right away, So uh, we'll see. But
you know, Nicks was you know, Nicks was better than
I thought. But I don't think he has that much.
I don't think he's going to improve that much.
Speaker 2 (29:02):
But we'll see mild surprise, although not to you. Jeremiah
has Tyler Warren to the Bears at ten. I would
love the Jets to take him, but they're just desperate
for an offensive lineman. Their new GM is a guy
that there's no data on Darren. I don't even know
how to say his last.
Speaker 4 (29:18):
Name, Moogie. I don't think yeah, no more than me
on that.
Speaker 2 (29:22):
I don't know the guy. I mean, he's a new GM,
but Aaron Glenn. I like I was keeping everything close
to the vest. He's kind of shut down, shut it
all down. So nobody's leaking all these nonsense stories. But
it doesn't seem like they'll take Warren. Where are you
on Tyler Warren?
Speaker 4 (29:35):
Yeah, Tyler Warren is an interesting case because he's twenty
three years old, didn't really do anything until you know,
this past season and just exploded on the scene. He
was just a unique player because they use him in
the backfield. He was kind of a Takesom Hill like
kind of do everything. So he's a really interesting kind
of weapon. Didn't run, so I don't know what his
(29:57):
you know, athletic traits are. And that's the thing with
tight ends is the tight ends that have really broken out.
The Kelsey's and the Kittles of the world, and even
you know, we don't know about brock Bowers because you
don't work out, but the Kittles and the kelsey of
the world are really good athletes. They posted great numbers
at the combine, you can you can look down the line,
(30:19):
like the best tight ends in the league all were
really good. You know, they had really good workout numbers,
and so that is a really good indicator. We don't
know his workout numbers, so I have no idea what
he is athletically, but I think generally he's a good
tight end. I think that he's being pushed up and
maybe Loveland as well because of what brock Bauers did
last year. But you remember, going into last year, everyone
(30:41):
said tight ends just don't make an impact right away,
especially in the first round. It was kind of it's
kind of been a wasteland before brock Bowers. I think
Bowers is a little bit of an outlier because so
good at Georgia, but we'll see. I think that Tyler
Warren to the Bears makes sense just because you have
Ben Johnson there and he had his Sam Laporta, and
(31:01):
I think that's I think add adding that type of
player to and I think Ben Johnson will really use
him in unique ways because he's very, very creative. And
I think the fact that Warren's got some of that
quarterback yep, yeah, played played some some wildcat for Penn State.
I think they'll do that a little bit with me.
Speaker 2 (31:20):
He's a high school quarterback. Now, this is you just
said something I hadn't heard from anybody that Tyler Warren
didn't do anything at Penn State until this year when
he was twenty three. Holy cow, he had as a
junior thirty four catches for four hundred twenty two yards.
Then he went up to one hundred and four catches
for twelve and he had the same quarterback. I'm was
it the same court? No, No, they switched quarterbacks. Didn't
(31:41):
They have the guy Sean what's his face? He was
with the Packers. Yes, they had Clifford forever and then
they ar Aller and then he puts up monster numbers.
Interesting huh.
Speaker 4 (31:52):
Yeah. Now they did have THEO Johnson who was who
was drafted by the Giants last that's probably why. Okay,
well yeah he was he as a late bloomber and
that's the that's always interesting something.
Speaker 2 (32:01):
Then they're hiding him. I didn't realize he hasn't really
I'm looking up, like, what's his forty time? What's all this?
You can't really find much info on him, So they
basically shut him down. Huh.
Speaker 4 (32:09):
Yeah, And that's the thing that you know, we're seeing
more and more of that, which sucks for someone like
me who really relies on data and you know, historical
kind of combined numbers to come up with you know,
where these guys should go. And so it makes me
always makes me wonder when these guys don't run. It's
like Will Johnson, for example, in Michigan. Everyone says he's
a slow quarterback and he hasn't done it. He didn't
do anything. He refused to run the forty and everyone's saying,
(32:31):
what's because he's really slow? So you have to assume
these guys are hiding something. I mean, Marvin Harrison, I love,
I'm a buck guy. You know, he didn't run last
year and you saw he couldn't really separate much in
the NFL, And it's a little scary, like what would
he have run? He wasn't a Blazer at Ohio State.
So you know, it's probably smart to not run because
you want to hide as much as you can if
(32:53):
it's a weakness. But would you draft a guy like Warren?
What's up?
Speaker 2 (32:56):
Would you draft a guy like Warren? I mean, it
seems like they are hiding some.
Speaker 4 (33:00):
To me, I only my personal philosophy is it's got
to be a real outlier case to not take a
premium position player in the first round because you know,
we can get into it. But you know, there's something
called surplus value, which I'm not sure if you've heard
of that, but it's a it's a term that a
lot of the analytics folks really dive into, and it's
based on, you know, who is getting paid the most,
(33:23):
kind of what positions are getting paid the most. And
you know, running backs don't get paid for example, right
tight ends you know, don't get paid big money compared
to edge rushers and wide receivers and obviously quarterback and
tackle that's where the big money guys are. So if
you can find, you know, guys in free agency or
in trade that A're not gonna cost you a lot
(33:44):
of money at those positions at the running back and
at guard and you know at safety, those guys don't
cost a lot of money. So you can find good
players in free agency and just pay them, you know,
pay them that money and it won't won't hurt you
too much. Whereas you won't find edge sures in free agency,
right like those guys do not become available, and if
(34:05):
by chance there is one, you're gonna be paying throughout
the you know, through the nose. So if you can
find those premium positions in the first round of the
draft and you keep them on a rookie rookie contract,
that is extremely valuable. That if you get a rookie
edge rusher who is you know, uh making a huge impact,
like on Michaeh Parsons right, who has been for the
(34:25):
last number of years on his rookie deal. I mean,
that value is just out of this world versus you know.
That's why taking ash Gent doesn't make much sense. If
he's gonna get picked, he's going to automatically be the
I think the fifth or sixth highest paid running back
in the NFL. You know that, So it's like, why
are you doing that? So it's just to me, I
would never take so back to the Tyler Warren tight
(34:48):
ends generally just do not pan out in the first round.
That historically you can find them in rounds three, four, five.
We saw it with Kittle and Kelsey for example, are
perfect examples of that. So I would eight on a
tight end, and obviously someone who's twenty three who broke
out late and doesn't have any workout metrics. To me,
those are all red, you know, flashing signs that I will.
Speaker 2 (35:08):
Damn that's good stuff. So I don't have many bets yet.
Do you have any that you want to fire or
let the audience know that you fired on you?
Speaker 4 (35:18):
Yeah, at this time, I think so. For example, I
took I'm close to the Browns, right, I have over
Shader Sanders eight and a half draft position minus one
thirty about a month ago. If you look that up now,
it's like minus I think it's ten and a half
minus like eight hundred. It's a crazy number. So it's
(35:38):
way off. So you can't that's not available anymore. I
have Abdul Carter. So I when I thought that Hunter
would be the pick of two, I bet Hunter at
about even money at the time to go to I
had abdulk Harder to go three at plus two seventy five,
and they had Sanders over eight and a half. That
was just based on my thesis of you know what
we talked about with the with the Browns. You know
(35:59):
how they're drafts to go and it looks like that's
gonna go that way. So now I'm I think all
of the if you had good bets, it's it's kind
of too late, like there's nothing, there's no real value.
So to me, this is long shot time. So three
long shots that I like. One is not this is
this is one of those draft position you know what
(36:20):
what position a team will take in the first round.
And I have Buffalo running back at twenty eight to one.
And so if you've seen James Cook, is you know,
threatening the holdout? Yeah, I saw that, you know, Buffalo
and Beam the GM. He has taken a lot of
running backs. I think he's gonna running back every year
in the last three years. So he took Ray Davis
(36:41):
last year. I don't think it's out of this. It's
not impossible for them to just you know, move on
from Cook or just you know he's gonna walk and
they take a guy like if Trayvon Henderson's there, you know,
or really really athletic impact running back from Ohio State.
So that's possible. And at twenty eight to one, I
(37:02):
think when you get late in the first round, you
know so little. You have no idea where these guys
are gonna go and what positions are gonna take and
they're good teams, so they're kind of taking best player available.
So I think that's an opportunity. And by the way,
they could trade out of the first round, right, Like,
let's say a team like the Giants or the Browns
want a quarterback. They could trade back ten spots. Yeah,
(37:23):
and so their first pick is a second round pick,
and all of a sudden, it's like, all right, well,
running back is definitely not out of the question. So
to me, the odds don't do the line, so I.
Speaker 2 (37:32):
Would and that's a good bet. Also because Buffalo is
remember when Detroit took Jamior Gibbs, everybody was like, ooh,
that's kind of crazy. They were like a finished product.
Offensive line, set receivers, pretty much, set tight end, set quarterback,
like they had everything. They're like, ooh, this could work. Git,
sorry gent to Jacksonville. They're not even close to finished
right now.
Speaker 3 (37:51):
The Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 2 (37:52):
Running back there, I mean there, I like them, you know,
super Bowl team, right, I mean they could be the
Super Bowl next year. So yeah, I like that.
Speaker 1 (38:00):
Not bad.
Speaker 2 (38:01):
What was the other one?
Speaker 4 (38:02):
And so there's two others I like. So these are
specific players to the draft position. So Mason Graham to
go eighth at plus seven fifty. So I actually tweeted
about this earlier today, and it's funny, I was looking
at you just mentioned the Daniel Jeremiah Mock. He has
Mason Graham going eighth, So it's plus seven fifty at
(38:23):
least it was. I don't know if this is going
to change that. And my theory at the time was
twofold one. Carolina needs a defensive line. They ain't anybody
on defense. They're the worst defense in the NFL last
two years. And so if he drops, if Gent does
go five and we see a little bit of a
drop for Graham, either Carolina could take him or he's
(38:44):
one of the few guys that I think a team
will trade up for. And I think Carolina wants to
move back. You know, they they don't love anybody here.
So I think you get kind of two bites at
the apple. You get maybe Carolina just takes best player
available with you know, a need at the defensive defensive line,
or they trade back and a team jumps, you know,
jumps to their spot to take him eighth. So I
(39:05):
think there's value there. I think that number should be
more like four or five hundred instead of seven fifty.
And then the last, the third one I think is
interesting and I'll give you reasons why. And it goes
into some of the GM stuff. I talked about Jalen
Walker to go ninth at fourteen to one, so he
is being mocked everywhere except for Jeremiah to go eighth
(39:27):
to Carolina. So you're talking one spot back. And so
in my scenario, you know, if Mason Graham is there
or they decided to get a little different route, you know,
he would be available for the Saints. And the Saints
I think are really heavy on either offensive line or
pass rush, and so he fits. And another reason why
I think this makes sense is some of the GM stuff.
(39:50):
So Mickey Loomis, who is the GM for the Saints,
longtime GM for the Saints. He has historically drafted, you know,
guys who are are good athletes, okay, And there's nothing
about about this guy, that Jala Walker that says he's
not a good athlete. He's twenty one years old, Georgia, Georgia.
(40:13):
Guys love him. And the other thing that is really
interesting is Loomis. And I don't know if this is
a coincidence, but I started analyzing about a week ago,
looking at how GM's historically, you know, who they've met
pre draft with these official visits, who they met at
(40:34):
the combine. There are good sites that show these things
and you can see, like how often did they actually
draft a player that they met with. I went back
and Mickey Loomis, there's actually another GM that fits this,
and I'll talk about in a second. Mickey Loomis, I
don't know how this has occurred. They have not drafted
a player in the first round since twenty fifteen that
(40:55):
they actually met with pre draft. What ye isn't that crazy?
And I looked and it's not like, oh, they met
with a bunch of guys that all went above them
where they were picking. It was there's a handful of
years where yeah, they just didn't And maybe they're doing
something behind the scenes where we're meeting with these guys
and it's not official visits, or maybe they just have
(41:15):
enough information they don't want to, you know, you know,
release kind of who they're on, so you know, they
don't meet with them publicly, but they this is just
something that they have done. And I've gone back and
looked and it's it's been over ten years now and
it's pretty incredible. And so I look and Walker is
not a guy that they've met with. They've met with
(41:36):
a lot of edge rushers, a lot of defensive players,
but he's not one of them. So anyway, maybe that's
a coincidental thing, but you know, it kind of ties
with what I want and it fits a need and
fourteen to one I think is really interesting by the
way they get deep. The other GM who has not
I think he's met with one off first round pick
in the last you know, seven eight years is Chris
Greer with Miami, so keep that in mind. But anyway,
(41:58):
so those are a couple that I like and I
think I think have some value. So we'll see. I
like it.
Speaker 2 (42:06):
I like the data on that one. Like Joe, meet
the players and then draft them.
Speaker 4 (42:12):
How about this one, because there's one on the other
side of the other end of the spectrum. And again
this is something I tweeted last year last week when
I just started looking at this. There's one team, slash GM,
who very very predictable in who they draft in the
first round, actually not just first round, but early in
the draft, based on who they meet with. And that's
(42:34):
Omar Khan and the Steelers saw that. Yeah. So you
know where when I look at kind of gms that
have had multiple drafts and how often they meet with
a player and then draft them in the first round,
it's you know, most of these these gms are in
kind of that thirty forty percent range. Yeah, only one
that was above fifty percent. It was Omar Khan and
(42:55):
it was seventy nine and that was on total slid actions,
not even just first round. This he leads all active gms.
Seventy nine percent of his total picks have been on
players that the Steelers have conducted an official pre draft
meeting they have yet to draft up now, he's only
at two drafts. Okay, so small sample, but the Steelers
(43:16):
have yet to draft a single player inside the top
four rounds in these two drafts where they did not
meet with that player prior to the draft. So they
are you know, they telegraph who they're taking, and I
think that's more of an organizational thing. They've been doing
it for years, and so you know, take a look
at who Pittsburgh has met with and you might get
a better insight as to who they might go with
(43:38):
in the draft. I think they're gonna go with a
running back personally, that's why Hampton, Yes, but you know Hampton,
and if not, then maybe they, you know, take to
take a defensive take a defensive back. But that's that's
the centric what I'm looking at all.
Speaker 2 (43:53):
Right, TA, great stuff, The draft is here. I'm excited.
It's it's a little overhyped, but it's still fun, fun
as hell, and and hopefully your Browns make a good
move that you're happy with, and we'll talk to you
again in August ahead of the season.
Speaker 4 (44:05):
Awesome. Thanks Jason,
Host
Jason McIntyre
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