September 5, 2023 • 45 mins
On today’s episode, professional sports bettor and Clevanalytics founder TA swings by to preview week 1 of the NFL slate from a gambling perspective, including: Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles vs New England Patriots, Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens, Arizona Cardinals vs Washington Commanders, New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills & more!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
What is up Straight Fire? Fam H's me Jason McIntyre.
Straight Fire for Tuesday, September fifth. Now, we started school
out here in southern California two weeks ago, but I
recall from my days growing up outside Washington, DC that
this was the day school starts the day after Labor Day,
(00:36):
so all kids across the country are back in school.
We now have the NFL just two days away, Lions
Chiefs Thursday Night Football. We have no Chris Jones as
of this moment. We'll see what changes we'll see. Maybe
Chris Jones asigned. I can't imagine that he plays a
big factor Thursday Night. Heck, there's a Bosa brother who
will talk about later in the show. Is he gonna
(00:56):
show up this weekend in Pittsburgh? Roy Niners definitely will
miss him if he's not there. I just I'm so
excited for the NFL. My son had his can I
say big money draft for a twelve year old, but
he had it on Monday. He did a pretty good job.
I guess listen to me. I'll say this Clemson Duke surprise.
(01:18):
It was on ESPN Surprise I still don't have it
thanks to the bastards. It's spectrum and yeah, I'm fired
up about it. I'm giving them until today at five o'clock.
If they haven't resolved this issue, I will be reaching
out and getting YouTube TV or Sling TV on some
kind of trial run in hopes that it's resolved soon.
You've got to figure that they get it resolved before
(01:38):
NFL Week one, right, I mean, the NFL is kid
college football.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
I missed it. It's stunk.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
But even my buddy who hosted the draft yesterday, he
didn't have Clemson.
Speaker 3 (01:46):
We couldn't watch Clemson.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
Duke during the draft, frustrating his heck, come on, man,
get your act together.
Speaker 3 (01:51):
Anyways, We've got an amazing guest today.
Speaker 1 (01:53):
If you gamble on the NFL, if you do DFS,
if you do fantasy, this is the guy for you.
His name is Ta, kind of anonymous, but not totally
and he's been coming on my radio show forever. He
then started to create his own website. You could subscribe
to it. We have an offer if you use a
code Jmack at the end of the show, you'll get
a discount. I subscribe to it.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
I've done that.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
For the last two years, he's been doing the Super
Contest in Vegas or the Circuit Contest, whichever one we alternate,
but he's been doing it. He's had more success than
I have, and he's really sharp. I think you guys
are really gonna enjoy this podcast. We break down like
half a dozen games in week one, some surprises, I think,
from his point of view, a lot of numbers. He's
(02:37):
the kind of guy where the numbers, the sun sets
and rises with the numbers in the NFL. He's big
on that and it's helped him immensely. It's helped me
here the last few years get better, and I think
you're gonna really enjoy it. So, without further ado, let's
bring in my main man, Ta from clevanalytics dot com.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
Jason likes to think he knows everything when it comes
to sports.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
I know what sports dance wants, but for.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Everything he doesn't, he knows the guy who does. Let's
just say I know a guy who knows the guy
who knows another guy.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
All right, let's welcome into straight fire a guest who
I've did geez, I've talked to him here on my
podcast for several years. I would talk to him on
my radio show back in the day. Just this obscure
fellow on the internet who had some really good analytical stuff,
and he is just blowing up left and right. Let's
bring in Ta from clev Analytics.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
Ta. How you doing, my man?
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Good Jason. Yeah, you know, I tell everybody you're the
first person to quote unquote discover me back in the day.
It's probably been at least a decade. I had about
fifty followers on Twitter, and you're I think you had
asked one one Saturday, Hey, anybody got some some winning picks?
And I posted, I gave you like three or four
they all won. And then and then Sunday I gave
(03:55):
you like four more and I think I went three
and one and you're like, all right, guys, follow this guy,
and I grabbed. I went, I just started getting followers,
and you know, and kind of shot up to the moon.
So I really do appreciate you. You gave me my
first first crack at it, so always appreciable.
Speaker 3 (04:10):
Well, thanks a lot.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
I mean, listen, man, your infos as good as it gets. Obviously,
he started a website, Cleve Analytics, and I would recommend listen.
I know, I don't say go by picks. We had
Adam churnof On from Right Angle, and that's different. He's
just straight up their selling picks. They're telling clev is
selling information, which is stuff you're not getting anywhere else,
and it's weird.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
TA listen.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
I even saw a guy, do you know Jeff Fogel
by any chance?
Speaker 2 (04:36):
No, A little bit of him.
Speaker 1 (04:38):
Yeah, yeah, So he's like a Vegas guy and he
would put good interesting stuff on Twitter. And I just
saw he start a substack and again it's like fifty
dollars for the year whatever.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
I'm like, I'll pay fifty bucks, like.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
A Starbucks fifty bucks. Guess we like three weeks of Starbucks? Like,
what's the big deal? So paying for information? So I
subscribe to TA site. I recommend you guys doing the
same Cleve Analytics. We'll have a little promo here, but TA,
let's just start to dig in. We're not gonna go
big picture on the season. I'm ready for week one.
Speaker 3 (05:06):
We'll just start this way. You are a big Browns guy.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
You're from Ohio and you seem to every year you're
all over the Browns. If I see you backing them,
I'm usually piggybacking. I gotta be honest, I don't know
what to make of this team with Watson, I love
the roster. This Denzel Ward concussion stuff is a little
troubling here in Week one. I would love to go
against the Bengals and Burrow, who's coming off the calf injury,
(05:31):
but I don't know if I can do it. Divisional
dogs popular always in week one.
Speaker 3 (05:35):
Where are you on Browns Bengals?
Speaker 2 (05:37):
Yeah, well so Browns in general, I've been high on
and I've seen that in the last couple of weeks
they're starting to get a lot of love from the
analytics community and just people in general noticing how talented
the roster is. And you know, I'm pretty you know, unbiased.
When Mike when To comes to my Browns if they're
if they're not, you know, doing something that that I
agree with, I'll definitely have you know, let them have
(05:59):
it on Twitter, so you don't have to worry about
this being a biased thing. But I mean, if you
look up and down the roster, you know how many
teams can say they have a top ten level quarterback,
they've got multiple elite edge rushers, they've got a number
one running back, They've got a good, you know, starting
receiver and Amari Cooper, a top ten offensive line, like
(06:20):
they have a top ten to fifteen secondary. They've they've
got all the right pieces in the right spots in
premium positions, and so it's just a matter of it
all coming together. And you look at Kevin Stefanski as
a coach, he's an offensive coach and he's taken guys
like Baker Mayfield and Jacobe Burssett and made them, you know,
kind of top ten offenses a couple of times with
those guys. So you know, I think with an offseason,
(06:42):
they're going to implement a lot of the stuff that
Watson likes to do, which means a lot of empty formations.
He did a lot of that at Houston, was the
best in the NFL when you look at some of
the advanced numbers in empty formations. They led the NFL
in the preseason with empty formations at a high rate.
So you can see a lot of that. Spread the field,
let Watson kind of make, you know, make the decisions
(07:04):
and use his legs when he can, and then obviously
have you have Nick Chubb in the backfield win to
run the ball, and keep defenses honest. So I just
think that this is a really good team. Obviously, if
everybody stays healthy, We've got, you know, a seventeen hundred
attempt sample size of Deshaun Watson before last season. So
I'm not really worried about what happened in those six games.
(07:24):
Really unique circumstance, tough situation, kind of step right into
He had a couple of really cold, windy weather games
to deal with, so it kind of skews some of
his numbers. He wasn't good, but he wasn't the complete,
you know, bust that everybody was talking about. So I
think this team's got what it takes. I think this
week I do like them against the Bengals. I think
(07:45):
you mentioned home dogs. I mean, you never want to
play a trend blindly, but I do think it's interesting.
You know, Week one home Dogs are on a twenty
one and five run It's an eighty eighty one percent
ats clip since twenty ten, and they're covering at an
eight point per margin clip per game. It's just it's
been pretty incredible, and it makes sense a lot of
(08:05):
these home dogs are teams that didn't make the playoffs.
The prior year going up against a team that did
make the playoffs. That's why you get them at a
home home price here in division, they know each other,
you get a little bit of value on the on
the home team, and so you know that obviously is
an angle that makes sense, and you know, isn't isn't
one that I would bet blindly, but it's just kind
(08:27):
of cherry on top. I like the Browns. And then
I think with Cincinnati, you know, I think that they're
clearly going to be a contender, but the defense is all,
you know, essentially played over their talent level the last
couple of years. They've got a great defensive coordinator who's
put them in good positions. But you know, they faced
the most backup or poor starting quarterbacks last year when
(08:51):
you look at some of the advanced numbers. So they
played a pretty easy schedule from a defensive standpoint. And
then you look at Burrow. You know, people say, oh,
you know, he'll just step in Game one, like it's
no big deal off that calf. But you know, I
posted this on Twitter just about an hour ago. Not
sure if you saw it, but you know, people talk about, hey,
these quarterbacks that don't play in the preseason doesn't really matter.
(09:11):
So me and my team we went back and looked
did some research going back to twenty sixteen, and that's
about when quarterbacks started to sit more in preseason, and
we excluded the COVID twenty twenty year when when nobody
played preseason, there have been twenty seven quarterbacks who did
not take a preseason snap, but started Week one only
thirty three percent of the time. So nine of those
(09:32):
twenty seven quarterbacks did they go over their team total,
so they averaged nineteen and a half points. The team
total was, you know, over twenty four points. Their success
rate was forty six point nine percent in Week one
compared to forty eight point two percent in all other
games the rest of that season. You look at their
against the spread margin against against teams with quarterbacks who
did play in the preseason eight ten and one. So again,
(09:55):
and we saw last year Burrow with that apendectomy, didn't
play all preseason. He stepped in first play the game
picked six against the Steelers, had his worst game all year. Yeah,
he had four interceptions, five turnovers and they lost as
big favorites. So you know, again, these aren't things you
bet blindly. But they're just kind of cherries on top,
you know, with me liking the Browns more than the
market and liking the Bengals a little bit less than
(10:16):
the market, And I think that getting them at two
and a half, I think is a good number. I
think they went out right.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
Historically, if memory serves like the last I think Burrows
struggled against Cleveland. Has he not as I think he's
like one and four? Any idea what that's about.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
No, it's a good question. I don't know what it's about.
They've you know, done a good job on him. They
had a couple of interceptions. Two years ago, they had
a pick six to start the first drive of the game,
the Denzel Ward took one back like ninety nine yards.
Last year, there one game on Monday Night football at home.
They did get lucky. Jamar Chase did not play in
that game, but they just completely dominated and you know,
(10:52):
for whatever reason, they they've done well in the division
in general. You know, the Browns have you know, they've
been kind of mediocre from a defensive standpoint against all
other teams, but in division they've done a good job
against Lamar and they've done a good job against Burrow.
So you know, I'm not sure what it is. I'm
not sure if it's a personnel, but I think you know,
between that and you know, Jim Schwartz is a new
defensive coordinator with the Browns. I think he's gonna bring,
(11:12):
you know, aggressive attitude. He's turned defenses around in the past,
and he's been a defensive consultant with the Titans the
last couple of years. And for whatever it's worth, you know,
the Titans had what nine sacks in that playoff game
two years ago, and even last year they held them
to just twenty points, so you know, he's had success
against Burrow. So whatever the combination is, I think that
(11:33):
the new talent and you know, the coaching and whatever
the Browns have against Burrow, I think is a good
combo here. And I think it all makes for a
good play on the Browns, right.
Speaker 1 (11:43):
One, Colonel, you said, in their teams that made the
playoffs facing teams that didn't, obviously the casual better and
Vegas knows that they're going to gravitate towards the team
that made the playoffs, Pittsburgh. San Francisco is interesting because
you know San Franze Road favored against Tomlin. Tomlin is
a home go which we know historically has been awesome.
Speaker 3 (12:03):
I don't know. I've liked pitt irrationally this season.
Speaker 1 (12:05):
I don't think you're as high on them as I am,
but I like them in this game. I think they
win outright at home against San Francisco. Brock Purty, welcome
back from your offseason surgery. You get to face TJ. Watt,
and we know without Watt last year that defense was abysmal.
I think I'll never forget. I don't know if you
were with me, but Steelers Raiders in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (12:23):
TJ.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
Watt gets hurt like late first half, and I was
feeling fine about the game, and then of course no
Watts second half and Cars just slinging it all over
and the Steelers get destroyed, and that was like a
poortend of things to come.
Speaker 3 (12:34):
They think they're not great without Wat.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
I've got some aging guys in the secondary. Patrick Peterson,
I do like Pittsburgh Week one though, against the Niners.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
Yeah, you know, I hear you, and I could I
could be on board with that. You know, the game
opened three and a half, when the season st or
when the offseason started down to what two to two
and a half. I like them in a teaser. I
put them in a teaser. We could talk about you know,
Green Bay, but I put them in a teaser with
the Packers. The call at a long teaser advantage teaser
when you can get six points on both sides and
(13:04):
get over two key numbers of three and seven. So
if to me, that is a good teaser leg and
I you know, you essentially need the you know, Pittsburgh
to win outright, which you know is never easy against
a great San Francisco roster. Yeah, you got Brock Purty
in a tough environment in Pittsburgh. You know, last year,
as good as he played, he didn't really face adverse situations.
I think the one that you can kind of compare
(13:26):
is maybe that Seattle game on a Thursday night and
he he didn't do much. It was all Christian McCaffrey
in the run game. They didn't do much on offense.
It's a tough environment. So uh and against Watton that
that front four, I think this is gonna they're gonna
give him problems. You know, Nick Bosa has not signed yet,
and who knows, you know, what's going on there. Who
knows a phill even play. I mean, at this stage
(13:48):
you're talking about like what you know, five days away,
six days away from from from a game. Even if
he does sign and and just hold out this week,
how many snaps was he gonna get. I think that's
a big factor, you know. I think that gets you.
That's probably why this line went from three to two
and a half, you know, because Bosa is a big deal.
(14:08):
And I just think that the if you look at
the Niners offensive line, it wasn't great to begin with.
They lose Mike McGlinchey on the right side. It's not
that you know, Trent Williams is awesome on the left side,
but there's really nothing else on that line that you'll love.
I think that the defense for where Pittsburgh will keep them,
you know, under wraps, will put pressure on Purty and
I think that that does enough, you know, offensively that
(14:30):
I don't love the Steelers offense. I think Pikett, you know,
he got lucky a little bit last year. He wasn't
great on early downs, but third and fourth downs he
was top five in the NFL late in the year
and converted, Yeah, he converted a lot of third, high leverage,
third and fourth down situations, especially with his legs. You know,
they didn't do much on first downs the second downs,
but when it was like third and five, third and six,
(14:52):
you know he would he would just get the first
down with his legs or you know, converted through the air.
He did a really nice job. Those things are not
necessarily sustainable term, but I think that they improved the
offensive line a lot in the offseason. They signed veteran
guard Isaac c Omalo from the Eagles. You know, they
drafted Broderick Jones, who knows a phil starter or not,
but you know they've got good offensive line pieces. We
(15:12):
know they've got good weapons with Deontay Johnson and George Pickens.
I like Pat fryarm Ruth a lot. They signed Alan Robinson.
They've got enough weapons on offense, and we saw Jalen
Warren that big touchdown run in preseason. The offense should
be fine. I think they'll do good enough. Like I said,
I like them in a teaser leg. I think it's
going to be a toss up game. I can I
understand your side taking Pittsburgh, but for me, I feel
more comfortable, you know, getting eight and a half when
(15:36):
Tomlin just doesn't get blown out a lot in general,
you know, and in terms of you know, I've got
thirty two games without Big Ben as a starter. With Tomlin,
the Steelers are twenty and twelve against the spread and
twelve and five against the spread as an underdog. So
he does a good job of, you know, propping these
guys up. And to me just you know, kind of
a little little safer on the teaser leg. But I
(15:56):
understand your line of thinking here.
Speaker 1 (15:59):
Eagles paid is interesting. I think the line just went
down from four to three and a half. I don't
know if that's a new thing. I'm just surprised, Like
Eagles going on the road, I know a lot of newness,
new OC new DC Hurts gets paid. But have you
looked at this Patriots offensive line issue. It sounds like
they may start a fourth round rookie on right tackle
(16:19):
and then you're going against a defensive line that like
broke an NFL record for sacks. The interior of the
line seems like it's got some nagging injuries. I don't
know if this is Belichick with the gamesmanship signing two
tackles here in the last week, but if they've got
major injuries. Mac Jones, the Eagles are not the team
you want to face.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
I don't know. I don't want to take a road.
Speaker 1 (16:41):
Favorite here in Week one, but anything on Eagles Patriots
jump out.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
Yeah. I mean, I think they have the toughest schedule
in the NFL. The Patriots too, And obviously this is
one of them starting at home against against the Eagles.
You know, typically Belichick's defense, they've done it, especially the
last couple of years. They're awesome against bad quarterbacks, right,
like they just suffocate. If you're a rookie or if
you're just a poor quarterback, like you have no shot
(17:06):
against this Belichick defense. But when you face a mobile quarterback,
they struggle. They struggle a lot. Last year. You remember
Justin Fields put up that thirty three points on that
Monday night as big, big underdogs and they blew out
the Patriots. We see it every year with Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson had one of his best games of his
season last year against New England. So you know, they're
(17:28):
kind of a they're splits when they face a good
and kind of mobile quarterbacks versus poor ones are pretty drastic,
So obviously hurts is in that mobile quarterback category. So
from that perspective, I would normally I would normally back
Philly here if this was a mid season game. But
being that it's Week one and you give Belichick all
off season to prepare for hurts in this offense, it
(17:50):
you know, tilts to the defense's favor a little bit more.
And obviously, you know, we talked about just you know,
home dogs in general, not necessarily in division, but just
home was in general. I think, you know, are those
are teams that the market likes to back, as we
talked about. So I think that's why they're getting a
little bit of support. You know, I think that there's
(18:11):
some of that there. And again Belichick gets it. You
get a little tax with Belichick, right, even though they've
struggled lately, you get a little bit of tax. I
will say mac Jones has really struggled as an underdog
against the spread since he's come, you know, since he's
been in the league. You look since two thousand and
or since twenty twenty, which is post Brady new England
is nine and thirteen against the spread in six and
(18:34):
sixteen straight up as underdogs, and mac Jones has been really,
really poor, you know for many of those. So it's
not it's not a game that I would love to
back either way. I think I can through both sides,
and you know, could absolutely see Philly get up early
and then you know Mac Jones come up with some
backdoor late to cover the three points, and you really think.
Speaker 1 (18:57):
That's last year it didn't seemed like the Patriots had
a lot ta when when they needed to come from behind,
Like they just weren't capable of that. They weren't capable
of beating good teams. Yeah, the offense is like plotting.
Now maybe that changes with Bill O'Brien. I don't know,
are you as high on him as everyone else all
bill O'Brien's going to save the day.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
No, I just think it's you can't get any worse
than Matt Patricia last year. I think that's that's all
it is. I mean, when you look, it's so funny
with the new England team, you wouldn't expect this, but
you know they were. They led the NFL in I
think it was, oh gosh, I had it here. They
led the NFL either false starts or delay of games
on offense. It's like something that you don't normally see
(19:36):
from a from a Belichick coach defense, and that is
all batt Patricia like they I remember all the times
that mac Jones would look over to the sideline like,
you know, hurry up with the play, like what's going on.
So I think if you just eliminate some of that
and you get a little bit more professionalism from the
offensive side of the ball, you know, they could be
they'll be feisty. I don't like them at all just
because of their schedule and like you said, they're they're
(19:56):
underperforming against some of the good teams. So this is
just one of those that I don't necessarily love either way.
I could I could see Philly just blowing them out
and be like, oh my god, that was just kind
of right in front of our eyes and we didn't
pay attention. But you know, when you give Belichick all
off season to prepare for Hurts in this offense, that's
the only thing that kind of gets me to, you know,
kind of stay off at a little bit. Is just
(20:17):
that and the fact that you know Hurts didn't play
in the preseason. He's one of those guys. For whatever
it's worth, again, none of this is blind, but he
didn't play it all in the preseason, didn't take a snap.
Who knows new offensive coordinator. You just never know with
a kind of a new system. But it's a pass
for me either way.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
Interesting the not playing in the preseason, Lamar Jackson, I
never does. But one of the great things I got
from your awesome preview was this irrational excitement about the
Ravens offensive potential under this monk in from Georgia.
Speaker 3 (20:48):
And it's weird because, yeah, I look at the Ravens defense.
Speaker 1 (20:51):
I'm like, this is a bad, sneaky, bad defense. Like
if you look in the division, they have the fourth
best defense, Browns, Bengals, Steelers all better. All the name
guys are gone. You got an injury to Humphrey. Like,
I don't know, this defense looks bad. And then I
see them as nine and a half ten point favorites
against the Texans, and the Texans are cutting a bunch
of veterans and you see they're playing young guys, and
I'm like, what, I don't know what to.
Speaker 3 (21:12):
Make of it.
Speaker 1 (21:14):
The Texans apparently have four offensive linemen could be out
Week one, a lot of injuries, and again maybe it's
preseason and positioning and jostling, but everything to me screams hardball.
But again, you know, am I taking a nine and
a half point favorite on the road in Week one?
Probably not?
Speaker 2 (21:30):
Yeah, And by the way, week one favorites over a
touchdown or eighteen and thirty two against a spread thirty
six percent since two thousand, So just an FYI, like
that's again week one, we usually the market knows. Well,
think about it. What happens later in the season when
you've got a bad team. There's there's injuries, there's attrition everywhere. Right,
That's where the good teams kind of shine because they
(21:52):
have more depth, whereas the bad teams can't afford those injuries,
and you just really start to get to guys that are,
you know, off the street level. But first game of
the year typically you get these bad teams have all
their their fire powers, so they should be a little
bit better than you know, what you'd see later in
the year. So that's something I got to keep in mind.
Week one, everybody's typically healthy. Again, you just mentioned a
(22:14):
couple of alignemen are out. I know Tyas Howard for
the right side, the right tackle for for Houston's out,
so that could be a big deal. You got a
rookie quarterback c J. Stroud behind him, so that that's
an issue. You know. I actually I haven't taken anything yet.
I would look at the over a little bit because
I think the Baltimore offense is really going to be
able to move the ball. I think I love Todd Monkin,
(22:35):
I love this's going to push the ball down the
field a lot more. Still use some of the RPO
stuff with Lamar, but you know they've got weapons all
over the field. Now. Zave Flowers, everybody's talking about how
great he's been in camp. He showed he scored that
touchdown in the Monday night game against Washington. Yeah, he's
got some juice to him. OBJ doesn't have to be,
you know, a superstar number one. He just has to
be a good veteran, you know, leader, arride receiver. And
(22:57):
you know you still got Rashad Bateman and Mark Andrews, like,
You've got plenty of weapons to push down the field.
And so I'm excited for this offense in general. And
I think that the Ravens defense, like you mentioned, they
do have probably the worst defense in the division. They
had to sign to Jadavian Clowney because they don't really
have a pass rush tyas Bowser is out, so you know,
(23:19):
he's probably their best pass rusher at this point.
Speaker 3 (23:21):
They lost Justin Good.
Speaker 2 (23:23):
Yeah, and you know Marlon Humphrey, who's a really good corner,
he's out for this game. They've got Rakya sin is
their number two corner. He's questionable. So there's a lot
of holes. I mean, I wish if the Houston offensive
line was fully healthy, even with the rookie quarterback, I
would be looking at them to cover here. I just
with all those you know, injuries, and with with c J.
(23:45):
Stroud and not looking great in the preseason in a
tough environment, I just can't get myself to back Houston.
But if I had to, I would take their side.
But I just you know, I think there's gonna be
a decent amount of points here, so I would look
to the over if anything. But you know, this is
a no play for me.
Speaker 1 (24:02):
Didn't the Ravens smack the Dolphins like fifty nine to
nothing in Week one a couple of years ago, something
I've seen and Hardball's known to like. I mean, he's
a great coach, almost underrated. I just worry if the
Texans fall behind, like say fourteen to three, you know,
and you got to take away the running game appears
and all of a sudden, Stroud's got to go to
the air. I don't feel great, but again, like you said,
favorites over a touchdown super risky.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
By the way, real quick, with that Week one you
mentioned in Miami, Lamar Jackson is three to one against
the spread in the last five years in Week one,
they've He's covered the spread by over sixteen points per game.
They've averaged thirty seven points per game. He's a number two.
I mean, Mahomes is in a different stratosphere in Week one,
but Lamar is the second best quarterback in the NFL
in Week ones in the last five years.
Speaker 1 (24:44):
For whatever it's worth, it feels like it could be
a game like you like Monk, And I'll be honest, guys,
ta side, I'm not pushing it too much.
Speaker 3 (24:51):
Will give you a discount in a minute.
Speaker 1 (24:52):
But like you were the one who got me to
draft Lamar Jackson in like two of my fantasy leagues
because you think he could put up massive points and
stats and be like an MVP candidate.
Speaker 3 (25:01):
I didn't see it.
Speaker 1 (25:03):
But again, this is why I lean on you know
guys who see stuff maybe I don't. I just wonder
if monk it's coming out, we're.
Speaker 3 (25:08):
Gonna shock some people.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
We're gonna drop a forty burger and this is like
forty to thirteen and you miss a layup that there
is my there's some concern about that.
Speaker 3 (25:16):
Anything on rookie quarterbacks in week one.
Speaker 1 (25:18):
I know Bryce Young could be in trouble of the
Carolina line, but any any historical numbers on rookie quarterbacks in.
Speaker 2 (25:24):
Week one, you know, I did look that up a
couple of weeks ago, and there wasn't really anything definitive,
to be honest, you know, it's kind of a mixed bag,
you know, just kind of kind of fifty to fifty
when it comes to cover percentage and team totals, like
you don't really get too much. There's some I mean,
if you remember, there's some outliers on the good RG
three went into New Orleans week one and just destroyed
(25:45):
the Saints. That's why Marcus Marcus Mariota put up like
forty points as a rookie against Tampa. You had in
week one on the road, you had Sam Darnold. I mean,
I know the defense were too, but they've put up
like they put up like forty nine against thes on
that Monday night, So you've got outlier performances like that,
and then you have a bunch of duds as well.
(26:05):
So yeah, it's kind of it's kind of a mixed bag.
But I will say with the Lamar thing real quick,
the reason I like him for fantasy too, not only
is the offense gonna be a lot better. He's never
had weapons like this, He's never had an offensive coordinator
who wants to push it down the field. But as
we mentioned, the defense stinks, so they're gonna be in
a lot of shootouts, so they're not gonna be sitting
on the ball. They're gonna be pushing it. They're gonna
need the score. So that's why I like him from
(26:26):
a fantasy perspective is just because you know you got
the offense is gonna be better, the weapons are better,
the coordinator's better, and you're gonna be in a lot
more shootouts, so they're gonna be a lot more. There's
gonna be a lot more throwing, I think from the
Ravens this year. So I would put him kind of
in my top four from the fantasy perspective, and I
think he's if you miss on the top three, you know,
Alan Mahomes, Earth's perfectly fine. Taken Lamar a little bit later.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
I actually had a guy the day after the draft
say would you trade Lamar Jackson?
Speaker 3 (26:52):
And I was like, did he read TA?
Speaker 1 (26:54):
I was like, no, I'm not trading Lamar Jackson. Anyways,
two quick ones before we get to the Jets. Number
one Arizona Cardinals. That line has gone up. Washington I
think was five and now it's at seven. Listen, we
don't want to reveal all your info, but you know
the Cardinals pretty well.
Speaker 3 (27:16):
Seven seems like a.
Speaker 1 (27:17):
Big number for Washington to be laying. But Arizona looks
very bad. It looks like they're win total for the
seasons down to three and a half. Josh Dobbs against
a potentially nasty Washington front Chase Young.
Speaker 3 (27:29):
You're in Ohio state.
Speaker 1 (27:30):
Guy Chase Young is gonna be looking. He needs to
get paid. He didn't get the fifth year extension. This
could be a Washington spot b enemy, you know, maybe
opening up Sam Howell. I thought Sam Howell looked competent
in the preseason. I don't know, but a touchdowns a
big number for Ron Rivera.
Speaker 2 (27:46):
Yeah. Absolutely, And there's a lot of push on the
on the Washington side here. Yeah. You know, look, I
think Arizona has got a little bit of a I
don't think they're tanking. I know it surprises people when
I say that, but you know, to me, there's difference
between kind of cleaning up the mess when you get
there and outright trying to lose. I mean, Colt McCoy
was unplayable and they cut him and noticed nobody signed him,
(28:08):
so like they're trying to be competent. And Josh Stobbs
is a guy they tried to sign in the off
season from the Browns. The offensive coordinator, Drew Petsick was
a quarterback coach in Cleveland, so they had the familiarity.
You know, he chose the Browns over them, and then
you know was able. You know, they were able to
trade for him because dtr had such a good, good preseason.
But you know, he's mobile. He almost won that game
(28:28):
in Week eighteen last year, if you remember, kind of
coming off the street in Jacksonville. They're they're winning in
the fourth quarter. So he's he's not great, but he's
at least he can move a little bit, he can
do some things. They're they're just biding their time for Kyler,
or they don't know when Kyler Murry is gonna come back.
He's on pup list. I think, you know, kind of
week five to eight is probably the most logical target. Look,
(28:49):
if they sit him all year, then then yeah, you
can sit there and say they're tanking. But I would
be stunned if he missed more than half the season.
And you know, I think I think they want to look.
Jonathan gam was hired for and Manti Austin Austin Forth
the GM. They were hired to clean up the mess
that Steve Kaint brought in front of them in Arizona.
(29:10):
I mean the constant drafting of linebackers for one, So
they used they use their first round pick on Isaiah
Simmons and Xavin Collins and back to back years, you know,
essentially both our bus especially Isaiah Simmons, they traded at
number one for Hollywood Brown. I mean they Coulick got
aj Brown for number one. Remember that was the same
exact draft. If they could have tossed a little bit
(29:33):
more into the pot, they could have gotten you know,
could have gotten aj Brown. They he signed a bunch
of high priced veterans that were towards the end of
the career, like JJ Watt, Like none of these things worked.
He never had a competent offensive line, just did everything
opposite of what you're supposed to do. The salary cap
is a complete mess. They were completely void of draft
picks this season and going forward. So they hired a
(29:54):
new regime to completely clean everything up in the locker room.
Get guys who want who are gonna play hard, who
want to be there. They got rid of a lot
of the dead weight when it comes to you know,
salary cap and just you know, again not wanting to
be there, you know, aka DeAndre Hopkins. They they they
pulled off a heist in that trade with Houston to
(30:15):
get their number one pick next year along with all
those other picks. They used a top ten pick on
right tackle Paris Johnson will eventually be a left tackle.
That's exactly what you want to do, Like, you need
to rebuild this offensive line. So I think they're doing
things the right way. They're not just spending there's no
reason they should have spent, you know on these these
one year, two year you know, veterans and you know,
(30:37):
completely botch your salary cap. Again, there's no reason for it,
like just this is a transition year. So I think
there's a difference between that and what they're doing and
just completely trying to lose like some of these teams
have done in the past. So we'll see what happens.
I think they'll play hard. I think they've got enough
guys in there who are playing for their next contracts
and are younger guys that will play hard. They just
(30:58):
don't have the talent. I mean, I would say, if
you want a piece of advice, a little kind of
free advice, play Brian Robinson this week in DFS look
at some of his prop numbers. The running back for Washington.
The one area I know internally that Arizona is really
worried about is there is the middle of their defensive line.
(31:18):
It's a real real sieve they're gonna be able to
run the ball up and down the field on them.
So take that for what it's worth. But I do
like what they're doing. I mean, I think even if
you think that they're tanking, they're building something right there,
and they could have the top two. They could have
the top two picks and potentially have Kyler Murray you know,
who knows if someone will trade for him. You know,
he could have that trade asset. They would probably be
(31:39):
okay just get you know, if they decide to go
that route and take Kaylob Williams or Drake May you know,
trade them for you know, for a couple of picks,
even if their mid round picks, just to get the
salary off the books. You know, that's in play. They're
building it the right way. So I think, you know,
they'll be feisty, maybe kind of like the you know,
Dan Campbell Lions were a couple of years ago. But
(32:00):
you know, I don't think they'll get a lot of wins.
But I think they'll be feisty, and I wouldn't touch
Week one. Like you said, I think it's gonna be
a slug fest. I think they're gonna go slow on offense.
They're gonna run the ball. I think defensively, Jonathan Ganin's
defense is to keep everything in front of you, limit
explosive plays. So they're gonna force Sam Howell to kind
of dink and dunk and they're gonna, you know, use force.
Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson to run the ball, so
(32:22):
I think they'll take time off the clock. So I
think this is gonna be a lower scoring kind of
seventeen ten, seventeen thirteen type games. So that that'stimation for
Week one.
Speaker 1 (32:31):
Again small scale, but like Eric B. Enemy was the
offensive coordinator in the Super Bowl, Gannon was the DC
Eagles fans were so upset at him because of that
second half.
Speaker 3 (32:41):
The Chiefs just move the ball up and down the field.
Speaker 1 (32:43):
But does the Enemy get any credit for that or
do we expect him to have some intimate knowledge of
what Gannon wants to do, because since a lot of
people say it was Andy Reid's game plan all the time.
Speaker 2 (32:54):
Yeah, that's the million dollar question, Like nobody knows. I
think there's a reason why Eric B. Enemy has not
moved up, right, there's you know, if you talk to
people around the league and they won't say it publicly,
but they'll say it privately. Because I've heard that heard
these things. There's a reason why at the Enemy has
not gotten a head coaching job. It's just is what
it is. I mean, he's just he doesn't doesn't do
(33:15):
great in interviews, he doesn't get the credit that you
know for the offense. We know it's Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid.
There's just a lot of things he rubs. He rubs
players the wrong way. You already saw it. Ron Rivera
was complaining, you know, a few weeks in the training game.
So I have no idea, like, I'm sure he's he's
there's something that had to have rubbed off on him
that he can put, you know, install into this offense.
(33:37):
I just you know, that's always a question mark. I mean,
remember Adam Gase was the guy who got credit for
Peyton Hanning in Denver, right, and look what happened in
Miami and New York. So like it doesn't you know,
those things don't always translate. So I would kind of
lean on this not being a high powered offense, but
you know, you just never know until it happens real quick.
Speaker 1 (33:57):
Falcons Panthers. A lot of people have come on this
podcas as you work with Warren Sharp before anothers have
said Falcons are the team.
Speaker 3 (34:03):
The schedule, it's all about the schedule.
Speaker 1 (34:05):
I don't I don't did Desmond Rider do anything in
the preseason because I don't know what to expect from
this offense. A lot of people seem to think their
Falcons are going to dominate. Like I drafted him in
fantasy defensive the people are stunned.
Speaker 3 (34:18):
I kind of like them.
Speaker 1 (34:19):
But Week one against the Panthers, do they have the
pass rush to Rattlebryce Young who got his butt kicked
in the preseason and Frank Reraich, I think is bad
like a history of struggling badly in the season openers.
And I don't know, I don't I don't think the
pants are there, but their defense could keep them in it, right.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
Yeah, I actually have full disclosure your subscriber, so you
know I actually posted. You know, I took under forty
two and a half. It's about two weeks ago. And
then the next day the right angle. The right angle
sports guys took it as well, and it dropped down
to I think it's thirty nine and a half now,
So I would not play it. I mean, you know,
I think forty two is a key number. Forty's key number,
(34:58):
so you know, thirty nine and a half, I would
not touch it here. I just think I would air
on the side of this. Being again, I think the
Carolina defense is pretty good obviously, I mean the Brian
Burns situation is something to keep an eye on. He's
technically you know, I don't know if he's holding out
this week, but there sounds like I saw something about
how he you know, he it might be contract concerns,
(35:18):
so who knows that. I would keep keep an eye
on that. But yeah, the Carolina defense is pretty solid.
The one thing they do very well is they stopped
the run. They had a very tough schedule of opposing
run offenses last year that they stymied, and so I
think they'll be able to keep this Atlanta offense and check.
Like you said, Richard didn't really impress me at all
last year. He had He faced a bunch of you know,
(35:41):
kind of layup situations. He faced Tampa and Week eighteen
when they weren't playing for anything and played all their
backup defenders. He faced the Cardinals in Week seventeen when
they were you know, essentially you know, sitting everybody out.
I think Buddha Baker was sitting out. They had nobody
really that that of meaning, and so like, he had
a lot of easy situations and couldn't really do much
(36:02):
with them. You know, in New Orleans, I don't think
they scored a touchdown in uh in Baltimore scored nine points,
So it didn't really do much to impress me. And
I think they're just gonna kind of keep be conservative,
kind of hit the hit the layups with Kyle Pitts
and Drake London. They're gonna, you know, use b John
Robinson a lot. They're gonna run the ball. I think
they're gonna try to get a lead early and then
sit on it. So I think this is a you know,
(36:24):
conservative game plan. It's a lower scoring game. This line
went from what two and a half to is it
sitting at three and a half now? I think and yeah, yeah,
I mean I I again, Bryce Young did not impress
me in the preseason. It's tough for him to go right,
you know, right away. He doesn't have the mobility of
a Kyler Murray or Russell Wilson some of these other
smaller quarterbacks who can produce right away. He's got to
(36:45):
sit in the pocket. He can move a little bit,
but that's not his game and it's not easy to
win from the pocket. As a rookie. You don't usually
see that, especially someone who's who's kind of his you know,
at his stature. So we'll see. He eventually could figure
it out. But I think Week one is a tough spot,
and you know, I think Atlanta just you know, Atlanta
gets to win. I just don't know if I would,
I wouldn't take over field. Boy, this is way too
(37:07):
late to the party. But I'm not as high in
them as others. I do understand the schedule situation, but
you know, at some point you have to have a
quarterback like backing backing a guy like Desmond Ritter who
may not be a starting NFL quarterback, you know, to
to win the division. Like I've heard some people say
that's not that's not enough for me. I think the
defense is better, but they're not. They're not great like
(37:30):
they you know, Kalays Campbell's old. He's thirty seven years old. Yeah,
Bud Dupree is their top pass rusher, like he's been
mediocre the last couple of years since he left Pittsburgh.
I don't. I mean, Jesse Bates is a good in
one of their top you know, free agent signings. He's
a safety. He doesn't really move the needle. Safeties don't
don't don't move the needles much. So I think they're improved.
I just don't think they're great overall, the.
Speaker 1 (37:52):
Wide receivers of Carolina are they They're not great.
Speaker 3 (37:55):
Is dealing their number one? I don't.
Speaker 1 (37:57):
I don't know that they're good. And I'm looking aj
Terrell and Jeff Akuda.
Speaker 3 (38:01):
I know you like Akuda.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
He's had a rough start to his career, but like,
I don't know, I Carolina could be bad offensively.
Speaker 2 (38:07):
Man. Yeah, that's anyway I want to did not do
them any favors. They didn't, you know. Andam Thalan is
just a possession receiver now, he has no explosiveness. DJ
Chark is supposed to be their deep threat. He's already
hurt and he's had a career of injuries. So yeah,
they didn't do him any favors adding weapons.
Speaker 3 (38:22):
All right, we'll wrap up with my Jets. Obviously I
care about them intimately.
Speaker 1 (38:26):
We've had the longest we have had the longest postseason
drought of anyone. You get Rogers, you get Dalvin Cook.
There's reason to be excited. Schedule the first six weeks.
He's going to tell the story. I hate the fact
that several people have come on this pod and said
Buffalo is the play in Week one, the line has
gone toward the Jets from three to one, but that
could just be. Sorry, a lot of money in the
(38:48):
New York area going to fan duel and all those
whatever they are maybe shifting the market. Where are you
a Jets, Bills and b Jets over over overview.
Speaker 2 (38:58):
You know, I don't have a play on the week one.
I think it's it's lined exactly right. There's so much,
just so much intriguing, and I just don't know what
to make of the Jets. Like one day I'll sit
there and be like, you know, their defense was elite
last year and they didn't force any turnovers at all,
Like they were one of the worst teams in the NFL.
And you know, turnovers are flimsy year to year, right,
Like they're very variable. You know, sometimes it's just a
(39:20):
bounce of the ball. So if they got a few more,
you know, if you if you assume some regression with
the defense from a turnover perspective, like they could be
the best defense in the NFL. At the same time,
literally nobody got hurt on their defense, Like their entire
secondary was healthy. I think their top three corners obviously
including saut Garden or DJ Reid et cetera. Didn't miss
a single game. CJ. Mosley didn't miss a game. Quinn
(39:42):
Williams I think missed one game. Like, what are the
odds that all of that's gonna happen again? So, you know,
I kind of go back and forth on the defense,
They're probably gonna be really good. I just don't know
exactly how good and can they Can they produce the
same levels last year? There'll be a question. Obviously we
know Robert Solid could coach defense, So I think they'll
be I'm gonna kind of tilt on the side of
they'll be really good. And then offensively, look, the offensive
(40:04):
line is a problem. That is something that you can't
You can't hide a bad offensive line, no matter who
your quarterback is. We saw that with Patrick Mahomes in
the Super Bowl against Tampa a few years ago. Right,
So you know, with a guy like Aaron Rodgers who's
used to having a top ten offensive line, can he
produce when he's not getting the time that he's used to.
I'm not sure. You know, Garrett Wilson, I love him.
(40:25):
He's an Ohio State guy. You know, I think they've
got plenty of weapons on the outside Dalvin Cook, like
you mentioned with Breese Hall, is a really nice one
two punch. I just don't know how explosive they could
be if they can't If they can't get McKai Beckton playing,
I mean, you need McKai Beckton to be you know,
the top you know, a top tackle, and you need
health on that offensive line. If you get it, you
(40:46):
know there's upside there. Dwayne Brown's got you know, he's
older obviously, but he can still play a little bit.
It's it's quite you know, it's it's it's up and down.
Like if McKai Bereckton is either hurt or if he
can't produce, then you're you're in trouble. But I take
the way personally, I'm gonna play the Jets. I'm not
gonna do anything in Week one. I'm gonna wait and
see their first six games, like you mentioned, absolutely brutal.
(41:07):
I mean, Buffalo, Dallas, New England, Kansas City, Denver, and Philly.
That's that's as tough as you'll ever see. If they
can go even two and four, like, I'll give it.
Speaker 3 (41:16):
If they wait, wait with three and three. What's wrong
with three and three?
Speaker 2 (41:19):
If they go with three and three. You know, if
they go three and three, I would look to them
to win the AFC. I would look at their AFC
and Super Bowl odds because the rest of their schedules
a lot, a lot better. And if you can get
through that gauntlet three and three, to me, then I
think you've got you know, you've got really really tantalizing upside.
And I don't know what the price will be on
them if they go three and three, but you'll get
(41:40):
I don't think you'll get a worse price than you've
got right now. I mean, there's no reason to take
them now because the odds of them going forward to
five and one, six and zero is really really low, right,
And I'll take my chances that they can't do that
against this team. I mean, you got a brand new quarterback.
We saw with Tom Brady when he went to Tampa.
You know what happened the first half of that season.
He struggled early. So it's not easy to just we
(42:02):
saw that with Matt Ryan. Obviously he's over the hill.
But these veteran quarterbacks, Russell Wilson, they go to these
new systems right away, these new offenses. It's not easy
to just transition and step in and be a Hall
of Fame quarterback. So I would wait and give it
six weeks and see where they're at. If they're two
and four, three and three, that's what I expect, I
would pounce on potentially looking at you know, if you
can get twenty to one and twenty five to one
(42:24):
to win the super Bowl at that point, then I
would think it's it's actually worth a look.
Speaker 3 (42:29):
Yeah, I think we'll know early.
Speaker 1 (42:30):
Right, if Buffalo's defensive line without Von Miller, which is
kind of a big deal because last year Week one,
I think they sacked Stafford like nine times. So if
they struggle with the pass rush and the Jets win,
you feel great. If they lose and Rogers to sack
like six times, well you're you're probably dead. Week two
against Dallas and Parsons, you know, that's a brutal Like
those are two of the best front fours in the league.
(42:52):
Maybe could you say two of the top like seven
between Buffalo and Dallas like that.
Speaker 3 (42:56):
That's nasty to start.
Speaker 1 (42:57):
And then the Patriots had a top five defense last
year by a lot of metrics, so they've got to
win this opener against Buffalo. It's at home Rogers first game.
Speaker 3 (43:07):
I don't know, man, I'm very excited. I'm surprised you
don't have a pick in that one.
Speaker 2 (43:12):
I can't have a pick out every game. I think
I think it's lined right. Like, here's the thing. The
Jets did pretty well against Josh Allen last year.
Speaker 3 (43:18):
You know, they did defensively.
Speaker 2 (43:20):
Yeah, so so I think what don't surprise me at all.
I just I just can't you know, first game, Like
I said, I mean Tom Brady, remember did he throw
two pick sixes in that opener against New Orleans when
he went to Tampa?
Speaker 1 (43:31):
Like, oh, you're right, yes, divisional matchup?
Speaker 3 (43:34):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. It's just it's just hard
for sure.
Speaker 2 (43:37):
Yeah yeah, it's just hard to back a quarterback in
that spot. And you know, it's just different, especially with
an offensive line like that. They're gonna they're gonna probably
blitz him a lot. And look, I think it's a
coin flip. I think it's lined the right way. And
you know, Buffalo is very talented. They're one of the
most talented teams in the league. So I think it's
gonna be a great game. Like, you know, I think
(43:57):
it could be kind of a coin flip from that perspective.
So yeah, no play for me, but I think it's fun.
Speaker 3 (44:02):
Yeah all right.
Speaker 1 (44:03):
Do you have an offer for listeners of straight Fire
on your site?
Speaker 2 (44:07):
Yeah? So, since you've been such a good friend to
the to me and you kind of, like I said,
help me kind of rise in the ranks, I'm offering
anyone who uses the code Jmac Jmac to go sign
up at my website, Cleve Analytics. You'll get You'll get
fifty bucks off of a full season subscription. So and
like you know Jason mentioned earlier, this is not a
pick site. This isn't like I'm just here are my
(44:28):
my pick releases. This is I go through I tell
you what I'm taking personally, just because people want to
know what I'm on in full transparency, So I do that.
But I also have write ups on every single game
every single week. I have, you know, Jason will a test.
You've got all the matchup stats, you can look at
any you know, quarterback stat, defensive stat, you know, team stat.
I go through the injury reports, which is very vital
when when it comes to making a wager. I do
(44:51):
DFS analysis. I talk about some of the sleepers out
there I have Survivor Analysis. I call it a one
stop shop for degenerates. You know, the average Joe doesn't
just wager on games, right like, you know, You've got
a survivor entry, You've got pickpools, you've got dfs, so
kind of a little bit for a little bit of
everything for everyone. And this year all new tools. You
(45:12):
could do a really good research on some of the
against the spread and totals and some of the quarterback
stats that take you back to two thousand. So really
interesting stuff, I think, and something for everybody to do
their own research.
Speaker 1 (45:24):
And what do they say, give a man of fish,
he'll eat for a day. Teach a man how to fish,
and he'll eat forever. So ta great stuff. As always,
thanks for taking the time, buddy, and continued success with
the site.
Speaker 2 (45:36):
Thanks Jason, I appreciate it.
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
What is up Straight Fire? Fam H's me Jason McIntyre.
Straight Fire for Tuesday, September fifth. Now, we started school
out here in southern California two weeks ago, but I
recall from my days growing up outside Washington, DC that
this was the day school starts the day after Labor Day,
(00:36):
so all kids across the country are back in school.
We now have the NFL just two days away, Lions
Chiefs Thursday Night Football. We have no Chris Jones as
of this moment. We'll see what changes we'll see. Maybe
Chris Jones asigned. I can't imagine that he plays a
big factor Thursday Night. Heck, there's a Bosa brother who
will talk about later in the show. Is he gonna
(00:56):
show up this weekend in Pittsburgh? Roy Niners definitely will
miss him if he's not there. I just I'm so
excited for the NFL. My son had his can I
say big money draft for a twelve year old, but
he had it on Monday. He did a pretty good job.
I guess listen to me. I'll say this Clemson Duke surprise.
(01:18):
It was on ESPN Surprise I still don't have it
thanks to the bastards. It's spectrum and yeah, I'm fired
up about it. I'm giving them until today at five o'clock.
If they haven't resolved this issue, I will be reaching
out and getting YouTube TV or Sling TV on some
kind of trial run in hopes that it's resolved soon.
You've got to figure that they get it resolved before
(01:38):
NFL Week one, right, I mean, the NFL is kid
college football.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
I missed it. It's stunk.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
But even my buddy who hosted the draft yesterday, he
didn't have Clemson.
Speaker 3 (01:46):
We couldn't watch Clemson.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
Duke during the draft, frustrating his heck, come on, man,
get your act together.
Speaker 3 (01:51):
Anyways, We've got an amazing guest today.
Speaker 1 (01:53):
If you gamble on the NFL, if you do DFS,
if you do fantasy, this is the guy for you.
His name is Ta, kind of anonymous, but not totally
and he's been coming on my radio show forever. He
then started to create his own website. You could subscribe
to it. We have an offer if you use a
code Jmack at the end of the show, you'll get
a discount. I subscribe to it.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
I've done that.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
For the last two years, he's been doing the Super
Contest in Vegas or the Circuit Contest, whichever one we alternate,
but he's been doing it. He's had more success than
I have, and he's really sharp. I think you guys
are really gonna enjoy this podcast. We break down like
half a dozen games in week one, some surprises, I think,
from his point of view, a lot of numbers. He's
(02:37):
the kind of guy where the numbers, the sun sets
and rises with the numbers in the NFL. He's big
on that and it's helped him immensely. It's helped me
here the last few years get better, and I think
you're gonna really enjoy it. So, without further ado, let's
bring in my main man, Ta from clevanalytics dot com.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
Jason likes to think he knows everything when it comes
to sports.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
I know what sports dance wants, but for.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Everything he doesn't, he knows the guy who does. Let's
just say I know a guy who knows the guy
who knows another guy.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
All right, let's welcome into straight fire a guest who
I've did geez, I've talked to him here on my
podcast for several years. I would talk to him on
my radio show back in the day. Just this obscure
fellow on the internet who had some really good analytical stuff,
and he is just blowing up left and right. Let's
bring in Ta from clev Analytics.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
Ta. How you doing, my man?
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Good Jason. Yeah, you know, I tell everybody you're the
first person to quote unquote discover me back in the day.
It's probably been at least a decade. I had about
fifty followers on Twitter, and you're I think you had
asked one one Saturday, Hey, anybody got some some winning picks?
And I posted, I gave you like three or four
they all won. And then and then Sunday I gave
(03:55):
you like four more and I think I went three
and one and you're like, all right, guys, follow this guy,
and I grabbed. I went, I just started getting followers,
and you know, and kind of shot up to the moon.
So I really do appreciate you. You gave me my
first first crack at it, so always appreciable.
Speaker 3 (04:10):
Well, thanks a lot.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
I mean, listen, man, your infos as good as it gets. Obviously,
he started a website, Cleve Analytics, and I would recommend listen.
I know, I don't say go by picks. We had
Adam churnof On from Right Angle, and that's different. He's
just straight up their selling picks. They're telling clev is
selling information, which is stuff you're not getting anywhere else,
and it's weird.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
TA listen.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
I even saw a guy, do you know Jeff Fogel
by any chance?
Speaker 2 (04:36):
No, A little bit of him.
Speaker 1 (04:38):
Yeah, yeah, So he's like a Vegas guy and he
would put good interesting stuff on Twitter. And I just
saw he start a substack and again it's like fifty
dollars for the year whatever.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
I'm like, I'll pay fifty bucks, like.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
A Starbucks fifty bucks. Guess we like three weeks of Starbucks? Like,
what's the big deal? So paying for information? So I
subscribe to TA site. I recommend you guys doing the
same Cleve Analytics. We'll have a little promo here, but TA,
let's just start to dig in. We're not gonna go
big picture on the season. I'm ready for week one.
Speaker 3 (05:06):
We'll just start this way. You are a big Browns guy.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
You're from Ohio and you seem to every year you're
all over the Browns. If I see you backing them,
I'm usually piggybacking. I gotta be honest, I don't know
what to make of this team with Watson, I love
the roster. This Denzel Ward concussion stuff is a little
troubling here in Week one. I would love to go
against the Bengals and Burrow, who's coming off the calf injury,
(05:31):
but I don't know if I can do it. Divisional
dogs popular always in week one.
Speaker 3 (05:35):
Where are you on Browns Bengals?
Speaker 2 (05:37):
Yeah, well so Browns in general, I've been high on
and I've seen that in the last couple of weeks
they're starting to get a lot of love from the
analytics community and just people in general noticing how talented
the roster is. And you know, I'm pretty you know, unbiased.
When Mike when To comes to my Browns if they're
if they're not, you know, doing something that that I
agree with, I'll definitely have you know, let them have
(05:59):
it on Twitter, so you don't have to worry about
this being a biased thing. But I mean, if you
look up and down the roster, you know how many
teams can say they have a top ten level quarterback,
they've got multiple elite edge rushers, they've got a number
one running back, They've got a good, you know, starting
receiver and Amari Cooper, a top ten offensive line, like
(06:20):
they have a top ten to fifteen secondary. They've they've
got all the right pieces in the right spots in
premium positions, and so it's just a matter of it
all coming together. And you look at Kevin Stefanski as
a coach, he's an offensive coach and he's taken guys
like Baker Mayfield and Jacobe Burssett and made them, you know,
kind of top ten offenses a couple of times with
those guys. So you know, I think with an offseason,
(06:42):
they're going to implement a lot of the stuff that
Watson likes to do, which means a lot of empty formations.
He did a lot of that at Houston, was the
best in the NFL when you look at some of
the advanced numbers in empty formations. They led the NFL
in the preseason with empty formations at a high rate.
So you can see a lot of that. Spread the field,
let Watson kind of make, you know, make the decisions
(07:04):
and use his legs when he can, and then obviously
have you have Nick Chubb in the backfield win to
run the ball, and keep defenses honest. So I just
think that this is a really good team. Obviously, if
everybody stays healthy, We've got, you know, a seventeen hundred
attempt sample size of Deshaun Watson before last season. So
I'm not really worried about what happened in those six games.
(07:24):
Really unique circumstance, tough situation, kind of step right into
He had a couple of really cold, windy weather games
to deal with, so it kind of skews some of
his numbers. He wasn't good, but he wasn't the complete,
you know, bust that everybody was talking about. So I
think this team's got what it takes. I think this
week I do like them against the Bengals. I think
(07:45):
you mentioned home dogs. I mean, you never want to
play a trend blindly, but I do think it's interesting.
You know, Week one home Dogs are on a twenty
one and five run It's an eighty eighty one percent
ats clip since twenty ten, and they're covering at an
eight point per margin clip per game. It's just it's
been pretty incredible, and it makes sense a lot of
(08:05):
these home dogs are teams that didn't make the playoffs.
The prior year going up against a team that did
make the playoffs. That's why you get them at a
home home price here in division, they know each other,
you get a little bit of value on the on
the home team, and so you know that obviously is
an angle that makes sense, and you know, isn't isn't
one that I would bet blindly, but it's just kind
(08:27):
of cherry on top. I like the Browns. And then
I think with Cincinnati, you know, I think that they're
clearly going to be a contender, but the defense is all,
you know, essentially played over their talent level the last
couple of years. They've got a great defensive coordinator who's
put them in good positions. But you know, they faced
the most backup or poor starting quarterbacks last year when
(08:51):
you look at some of the advanced numbers. So they
played a pretty easy schedule from a defensive standpoint. And
then you look at Burrow. You know, people say, oh,
you know, he'll just step in Game one, like it's
no big deal off that calf. But you know, I
posted this on Twitter just about an hour ago. Not
sure if you saw it, but you know, people talk about, hey,
these quarterbacks that don't play in the preseason doesn't really matter.
(09:11):
So me and my team we went back and looked
did some research going back to twenty sixteen, and that's
about when quarterbacks started to sit more in preseason, and
we excluded the COVID twenty twenty year when when nobody
played preseason, there have been twenty seven quarterbacks who did
not take a preseason snap, but started Week one only
thirty three percent of the time. So nine of those
(09:32):
twenty seven quarterbacks did they go over their team total,
so they averaged nineteen and a half points. The team
total was, you know, over twenty four points. Their success
rate was forty six point nine percent in Week one
compared to forty eight point two percent in all other
games the rest of that season. You look at their
against the spread margin against against teams with quarterbacks who
did play in the preseason eight ten and one. So again,
(09:55):
and we saw last year Burrow with that apendectomy, didn't
play all preseason. He stepped in first play the game
picked six against the Steelers, had his worst game all year. Yeah,
he had four interceptions, five turnovers and they lost as
big favorites. So you know, again, these aren't things you
bet blindly. But they're just kind of cherries on top,
you know, with me liking the Browns more than the
market and liking the Bengals a little bit less than
(10:16):
the market, And I think that getting them at two
and a half, I think is a good number. I
think they went out right.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
Historically, if memory serves like the last I think Burrows
struggled against Cleveland. Has he not as I think he's
like one and four? Any idea what that's about.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
No, it's a good question. I don't know what it's about.
They've you know, done a good job on him. They
had a couple of interceptions. Two years ago, they had
a pick six to start the first drive of the game,
the Denzel Ward took one back like ninety nine yards.
Last year, there one game on Monday Night football at home.
They did get lucky. Jamar Chase did not play in
that game, but they just completely dominated and you know,
(10:52):
for whatever reason, they they've done well in the division
in general. You know, the Browns have you know, they've
been kind of mediocre from a defensive standpoint against all
other teams, but in division they've done a good job
against Lamar and they've done a good job against Burrow.
So you know, I'm not sure what it is. I'm
not sure if it's a personnel, but I think you know,
between that and you know, Jim Schwartz is a new
defensive coordinator with the Browns. I think he's gonna bring,
(11:12):
you know, aggressive attitude. He's turned defenses around in the past,
and he's been a defensive consultant with the Titans the
last couple of years. And for whatever it's worth, you know,
the Titans had what nine sacks in that playoff game
two years ago, and even last year they held them
to just twenty points, so you know, he's had success
against Burrow. So whatever the combination is, I think that
(11:33):
the new talent and you know, the coaching and whatever
the Browns have against Burrow, I think is a good
combo here. And I think it all makes for a
good play on the Browns, right.
Speaker 1 (11:43):
One, Colonel, you said, in their teams that made the
playoffs facing teams that didn't, obviously the casual better and
Vegas knows that they're going to gravitate towards the team
that made the playoffs, Pittsburgh. San Francisco is interesting because
you know San Franze Road favored against Tomlin. Tomlin is
a home go which we know historically has been awesome.
Speaker 3 (12:03):
I don't know. I've liked pitt irrationally this season.
Speaker 1 (12:05):
I don't think you're as high on them as I am,
but I like them in this game. I think they
win outright at home against San Francisco. Brock Purty, welcome
back from your offseason surgery. You get to face TJ. Watt,
and we know without Watt last year that defense was abysmal.
I think I'll never forget. I don't know if you
were with me, but Steelers Raiders in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (12:23):
TJ.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
Watt gets hurt like late first half, and I was
feeling fine about the game, and then of course no
Watts second half and Cars just slinging it all over
and the Steelers get destroyed, and that was like a
poortend of things to come.
Speaker 3 (12:34):
They think they're not great without Wat.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
I've got some aging guys in the secondary. Patrick Peterson,
I do like Pittsburgh Week one though, against the Niners.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
Yeah, you know, I hear you, and I could I
could be on board with that. You know, the game
opened three and a half, when the season st or
when the offseason started down to what two to two
and a half. I like them in a teaser. I
put them in a teaser. We could talk about you know,
Green Bay, but I put them in a teaser with
the Packers. The call at a long teaser advantage teaser
when you can get six points on both sides and
(13:04):
get over two key numbers of three and seven. So
if to me, that is a good teaser leg and
I you know, you essentially need the you know, Pittsburgh
to win outright, which you know is never easy against
a great San Francisco roster. Yeah, you got Brock Purty
in a tough environment in Pittsburgh. You know, last year,
as good as he played, he didn't really face adverse situations.
I think the one that you can kind of compare
(13:26):
is maybe that Seattle game on a Thursday night and
he he didn't do much. It was all Christian McCaffrey
in the run game. They didn't do much on offense.
It's a tough environment. So uh and against Watton that
that front four, I think this is gonna they're gonna
give him problems. You know, Nick Bosa has not signed yet,
and who knows, you know, what's going on there. Who
knows a phill even play. I mean, at this stage
(13:48):
you're talking about like what you know, five days away,
six days away from from from a game. Even if
he does sign and and just hold out this week,
how many snaps was he gonna get. I think that's
a big factor, you know. I think that gets you.
That's probably why this line went from three to two
and a half, you know, because Bosa is a big deal.
(14:08):
And I just think that the if you look at
the Niners offensive line, it wasn't great to begin with.
They lose Mike McGlinchey on the right side. It's not
that you know, Trent Williams is awesome on the left side,
but there's really nothing else on that line that you'll love.
I think that the defense for where Pittsburgh will keep them,
you know, under wraps, will put pressure on Purty and
I think that that does enough, you know, offensively that
(14:30):
I don't love the Steelers offense. I think Pikett, you know,
he got lucky a little bit last year. He wasn't
great on early downs, but third and fourth downs he
was top five in the NFL late in the year
and converted, Yeah, he converted a lot of third, high leverage,
third and fourth down situations, especially with his legs. You know,
they didn't do much on first downs the second downs,
but when it was like third and five, third and six,
(14:52):
you know he would he would just get the first
down with his legs or you know, converted through the air.
He did a really nice job. Those things are not
necessarily sustainable term, but I think that they improved the
offensive line a lot in the offseason. They signed veteran
guard Isaac c Omalo from the Eagles. You know, they
drafted Broderick Jones, who knows a phil starter or not,
but you know they've got good offensive line pieces. We
(15:12):
know they've got good weapons with Deontay Johnson and George Pickens.
I like Pat fryarm Ruth a lot. They signed Alan Robinson.
They've got enough weapons on offense, and we saw Jalen
Warren that big touchdown run in preseason. The offense should
be fine. I think they'll do good enough. Like I said,
I like them in a teaser leg. I think it's
going to be a toss up game. I can I
understand your side taking Pittsburgh, but for me, I feel
more comfortable, you know, getting eight and a half when
(15:36):
Tomlin just doesn't get blown out a lot in general,
you know, and in terms of you know, I've got
thirty two games without Big Ben as a starter. With Tomlin,
the Steelers are twenty and twelve against the spread and
twelve and five against the spread as an underdog. So
he does a good job of, you know, propping these
guys up. And to me just you know, kind of
a little little safer on the teaser leg. But I
(15:56):
understand your line of thinking here.
Speaker 1 (15:59):
Eagles paid is interesting. I think the line just went
down from four to three and a half. I don't
know if that's a new thing. I'm just surprised, Like
Eagles going on the road, I know a lot of newness,
new OC new DC Hurts gets paid. But have you
looked at this Patriots offensive line issue. It sounds like
they may start a fourth round rookie on right tackle
(16:19):
and then you're going against a defensive line that like
broke an NFL record for sacks. The interior of the
line seems like it's got some nagging injuries. I don't
know if this is Belichick with the gamesmanship signing two
tackles here in the last week, but if they've got
major injuries. Mac Jones, the Eagles are not the team
you want to face.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
I don't know. I don't want to take a road.
Speaker 1 (16:41):
Favorite here in Week one, but anything on Eagles Patriots
jump out.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
Yeah. I mean, I think they have the toughest schedule
in the NFL. The Patriots too, And obviously this is
one of them starting at home against against the Eagles.
You know, typically Belichick's defense, they've done it, especially the
last couple of years. They're awesome against bad quarterbacks, right,
like they just suffocate. If you're a rookie or if
you're just a poor quarterback, like you have no shot
(17:06):
against this Belichick defense. But when you face a mobile quarterback,
they struggle. They struggle a lot. Last year. You remember
Justin Fields put up that thirty three points on that
Monday night as big, big underdogs and they blew out
the Patriots. We see it every year with Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson had one of his best games of his
season last year against New England. So you know, they're
(17:28):
kind of a they're splits when they face a good
and kind of mobile quarterbacks versus poor ones are pretty drastic,
So obviously hurts is in that mobile quarterback category. So
from that perspective, I would normally I would normally back
Philly here if this was a mid season game. But
being that it's Week one and you give Belichick all
off season to prepare for hurts in this offense, it
(17:50):
you know, tilts to the defense's favor a little bit more.
And obviously, you know, we talked about just you know,
home dogs in general, not necessarily in division, but just
home was in general. I think, you know, are those
are teams that the market likes to back, as we
talked about. So I think that's why they're getting a
little bit of support. You know, I think that there's
(18:11):
some of that there. And again Belichick gets it. You
get a little tax with Belichick, right, even though they've
struggled lately, you get a little bit of tax. I
will say mac Jones has really struggled as an underdog
against the spread since he's come, you know, since he's
been in the league. You look since two thousand and
or since twenty twenty, which is post Brady new England
is nine and thirteen against the spread in six and
(18:34):
sixteen straight up as underdogs, and mac Jones has been really,
really poor, you know for many of those. So it's
not it's not a game that I would love to
back either way. I think I can through both sides,
and you know, could absolutely see Philly get up early
and then you know Mac Jones come up with some
backdoor late to cover the three points, and you really think.
Speaker 1 (18:57):
That's last year it didn't seemed like the Patriots had
a lot ta when when they needed to come from behind,
Like they just weren't capable of that. They weren't capable
of beating good teams. Yeah, the offense is like plotting.
Now maybe that changes with Bill O'Brien. I don't know,
are you as high on him as everyone else all
bill O'Brien's going to save the day.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
No, I just think it's you can't get any worse
than Matt Patricia last year. I think that's that's all
it is. I mean, when you look, it's so funny
with the new England team, you wouldn't expect this, but
you know they were. They led the NFL in I
think it was, oh gosh, I had it here. They
led the NFL either false starts or delay of games
on offense. It's like something that you don't normally see
(19:36):
from a from a Belichick coach defense, and that is
all batt Patricia like they I remember all the times
that mac Jones would look over to the sideline like,
you know, hurry up with the play, like what's going on.
So I think if you just eliminate some of that
and you get a little bit more professionalism from the
offensive side of the ball, you know, they could be
they'll be feisty. I don't like them at all just
because of their schedule and like you said, they're they're
(19:56):
underperforming against some of the good teams. So this is
just one of those that I don't necessarily love either way.
I could I could see Philly just blowing them out
and be like, oh my god, that was just kind
of right in front of our eyes and we didn't
pay attention. But you know, when you give Belichick all
off season to prepare for Hurts in this offense, that's
the only thing that kind of gets me to, you know,
kind of stay off at a little bit. Is just
(20:17):
that and the fact that you know Hurts didn't play
in the preseason. He's one of those guys. For whatever
it's worth, again, none of this is blind, but he
didn't play it all in the preseason, didn't take a snap.
Who knows new offensive coordinator. You just never know with
a kind of a new system. But it's a pass
for me either way.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
Interesting the not playing in the preseason, Lamar Jackson, I
never does. But one of the great things I got
from your awesome preview was this irrational excitement about the
Ravens offensive potential under this monk in from Georgia.
Speaker 3 (20:48):
And it's weird because, yeah, I look at the Ravens defense.
Speaker 1 (20:51):
I'm like, this is a bad, sneaky, bad defense. Like
if you look in the division, they have the fourth
best defense, Browns, Bengals, Steelers all better. All the name
guys are gone. You got an injury to Humphrey. Like,
I don't know, this defense looks bad. And then I
see them as nine and a half ten point favorites
against the Texans, and the Texans are cutting a bunch
of veterans and you see they're playing young guys, and
I'm like, what, I don't know what to.
Speaker 3 (21:12):
Make of it.
Speaker 1 (21:14):
The Texans apparently have four offensive linemen could be out
Week one, a lot of injuries, and again maybe it's
preseason and positioning and jostling, but everything to me screams hardball.
But again, you know, am I taking a nine and
a half point favorite on the road in Week one?
Probably not?
Speaker 2 (21:30):
Yeah, And by the way, week one favorites over a
touchdown or eighteen and thirty two against a spread thirty
six percent since two thousand, So just an FYI, like
that's again week one, we usually the market knows. Well,
think about it. What happens later in the season when
you've got a bad team. There's there's injuries, there's attrition everywhere. Right,
That's where the good teams kind of shine because they
(21:52):
have more depth, whereas the bad teams can't afford those injuries,
and you just really start to get to guys that are,
you know, off the street level. But first game of
the year typically you get these bad teams have all
their their fire powers, so they should be a little
bit better than you know, what you'd see later in
the year. So that's something I got to keep in mind.
Week one, everybody's typically healthy. Again, you just mentioned a
(22:14):
couple of alignemen are out. I know Tyas Howard for
the right side, the right tackle for for Houston's out,
so that could be a big deal. You got a
rookie quarterback c J. Stroud behind him, so that that's
an issue. You know. I actually I haven't taken anything yet.
I would look at the over a little bit because
I think the Baltimore offense is really going to be
able to move the ball. I think I love Todd Monkin,
(22:35):
I love this's going to push the ball down the
field a lot more. Still use some of the RPO
stuff with Lamar, but you know they've got weapons all
over the field. Now. Zave Flowers, everybody's talking about how
great he's been in camp. He showed he scored that
touchdown in the Monday night game against Washington. Yeah, he's
got some juice to him. OBJ doesn't have to be,
you know, a superstar number one. He just has to
be a good veteran, you know, leader, arride receiver. And
(22:57):
you know you still got Rashad Bateman and Mark Andrews, like,
You've got plenty of weapons to push down the field.
And so I'm excited for this offense in general. And
I think that the Ravens defense, like you mentioned, they
do have probably the worst defense in the division. They
had to sign to Jadavian Clowney because they don't really
have a pass rush tyas Bowser is out, so you know,
(23:19):
he's probably their best pass rusher at this point.
Speaker 3 (23:21):
They lost Justin Good.
Speaker 2 (23:23):
Yeah, and you know Marlon Humphrey, who's a really good corner,
he's out for this game. They've got Rakya sin is
their number two corner. He's questionable. So there's a lot
of holes. I mean, I wish if the Houston offensive
line was fully healthy, even with the rookie quarterback, I
would be looking at them to cover here. I just
with all those you know, injuries, and with with c J.
(23:45):
Stroud and not looking great in the preseason in a
tough environment, I just can't get myself to back Houston.
But if I had to, I would take their side.
But I just you know, I think there's gonna be
a decent amount of points here, so I would look
to the over if anything. But you know, this is
a no play for me.
Speaker 1 (24:02):
Didn't the Ravens smack the Dolphins like fifty nine to
nothing in Week one a couple of years ago, something
I've seen and Hardball's known to like. I mean, he's
a great coach, almost underrated. I just worry if the
Texans fall behind, like say fourteen to three, you know,
and you got to take away the running game appears
and all of a sudden, Stroud's got to go to
the air. I don't feel great, but again, like you said,
favorites over a touchdown super risky.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
By the way, real quick, with that Week one you
mentioned in Miami, Lamar Jackson is three to one against
the spread in the last five years in Week one,
they've He's covered the spread by over sixteen points per game.
They've averaged thirty seven points per game. He's a number two.
I mean, Mahomes is in a different stratosphere in Week one,
but Lamar is the second best quarterback in the NFL
in Week ones in the last five years.
Speaker 1 (24:44):
For whatever it's worth, it feels like it could be
a game like you like Monk, And I'll be honest, guys,
ta side, I'm not pushing it too much.
Speaker 3 (24:51):
Will give you a discount in a minute.
Speaker 1 (24:52):
But like you were the one who got me to
draft Lamar Jackson in like two of my fantasy leagues
because you think he could put up massive points and
stats and be like an MVP candidate.
Speaker 3 (25:01):
I didn't see it.
Speaker 1 (25:03):
But again, this is why I lean on you know
guys who see stuff maybe I don't. I just wonder
if monk it's coming out, we're.
Speaker 3 (25:08):
Gonna shock some people.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
We're gonna drop a forty burger and this is like
forty to thirteen and you miss a layup that there
is my there's some concern about that.
Speaker 3 (25:16):
Anything on rookie quarterbacks in week one.
Speaker 1 (25:18):
I know Bryce Young could be in trouble of the
Carolina line, but any any historical numbers on rookie quarterbacks in.
Speaker 2 (25:24):
Week one, you know, I did look that up a
couple of weeks ago, and there wasn't really anything definitive,
to be honest, you know, it's kind of a mixed bag,
you know, just kind of kind of fifty to fifty
when it comes to cover percentage and team totals, like
you don't really get too much. There's some I mean,
if you remember, there's some outliers on the good RG
three went into New Orleans week one and just destroyed
(25:45):
the Saints. That's why Marcus Marcus Mariota put up like
forty points as a rookie against Tampa. You had in
week one on the road, you had Sam Darnold. I mean,
I know the defense were too, but they've put up
like they put up like forty nine against thes on
that Monday night, So you've got outlier performances like that,
and then you have a bunch of duds as well.
(26:05):
So yeah, it's kind of it's kind of a mixed bag.
But I will say with the Lamar thing real quick,
the reason I like him for fantasy too, not only
is the offense gonna be a lot better. He's never
had weapons like this, He's never had an offensive coordinator
who wants to push it down the field. But as
we mentioned, the defense stinks, so they're gonna be in
a lot of shootouts, so they're not gonna be sitting
on the ball. They're gonna be pushing it. They're gonna
need the score. So that's why I like him from
(26:26):
a fantasy perspective is just because you know you got
the offense is gonna be better, the weapons are better,
the coordinator's better, and you're gonna be in a lot
more shootouts, so they're gonna be a lot more. There's
gonna be a lot more throwing, I think from the
Ravens this year. So I would put him kind of
in my top four from the fantasy perspective, and I
think he's if you miss on the top three, you know,
Alan Mahomes, Earth's perfectly fine. Taken Lamar a little bit later.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
I actually had a guy the day after the draft
say would you trade Lamar Jackson?
Speaker 3 (26:52):
And I was like, did he read TA?
Speaker 1 (26:54):
I was like, no, I'm not trading Lamar Jackson. Anyways,
two quick ones before we get to the Jets. Number
one Arizona Cardinals. That line has gone up. Washington I
think was five and now it's at seven. Listen, we
don't want to reveal all your info, but you know
the Cardinals pretty well.
Speaker 3 (27:16):
Seven seems like a.
Speaker 1 (27:17):
Big number for Washington to be laying. But Arizona looks
very bad. It looks like they're win total for the
seasons down to three and a half. Josh Dobbs against
a potentially nasty Washington front Chase Young.
Speaker 3 (27:29):
You're in Ohio state.
Speaker 1 (27:30):
Guy Chase Young is gonna be looking. He needs to
get paid. He didn't get the fifth year extension. This
could be a Washington spot b enemy, you know, maybe
opening up Sam Howell. I thought Sam Howell looked competent
in the preseason. I don't know, but a touchdowns a
big number for Ron Rivera.
Speaker 2 (27:46):
Yeah. Absolutely, And there's a lot of push on the
on the Washington side here. Yeah. You know, look, I
think Arizona has got a little bit of a I
don't think they're tanking. I know it surprises people when
I say that, but you know, to me, there's difference
between kind of cleaning up the mess when you get
there and outright trying to lose. I mean, Colt McCoy
was unplayable and they cut him and noticed nobody signed him,
(28:08):
so like they're trying to be competent. And Josh Stobbs
is a guy they tried to sign in the off
season from the Browns. The offensive coordinator, Drew Petsick was
a quarterback coach in Cleveland, so they had the familiarity.
You know, he chose the Browns over them, and then
you know was able. You know, they were able to
trade for him because dtr had such a good, good preseason.
But you know, he's mobile. He almost won that game
(28:28):
in Week eighteen last year, if you remember, kind of
coming off the street in Jacksonville. They're they're winning in
the fourth quarter. So he's he's not great, but he's
at least he can move a little bit, he can
do some things. They're they're just biding their time for Kyler,
or they don't know when Kyler Murry is gonna come back.
He's on pup list. I think, you know, kind of
week five to eight is probably the most logical target. Look,
(28:49):
if they sit him all year, then then yeah, you
can sit there and say they're tanking. But I would
be stunned if he missed more than half the season.
And you know, I think I think they want to look.
Jonathan gam was hired for and Manti Austin Austin Forth
the GM. They were hired to clean up the mess
that Steve Kaint brought in front of them in Arizona.
(29:10):
I mean the constant drafting of linebackers for one, So
they used they use their first round pick on Isaiah
Simmons and Xavin Collins and back to back years, you know,
essentially both our bus especially Isaiah Simmons, they traded at
number one for Hollywood Brown. I mean they Coulick got
aj Brown for number one. Remember that was the same
exact draft. If they could have tossed a little bit
(29:33):
more into the pot, they could have gotten you know,
could have gotten aj Brown. They he signed a bunch
of high priced veterans that were towards the end of
the career, like JJ Watt, Like none of these things worked.
He never had a competent offensive line, just did everything
opposite of what you're supposed to do. The salary cap
is a complete mess. They were completely void of draft
picks this season and going forward. So they hired a
(29:54):
new regime to completely clean everything up in the locker room.
Get guys who want who are gonna play hard, who
want to be there. They got rid of a lot
of the dead weight when it comes to you know,
salary cap and just you know, again not wanting to
be there, you know, aka DeAndre Hopkins. They they they
pulled off a heist in that trade with Houston to
(30:15):
get their number one pick next year along with all
those other picks. They used a top ten pick on
right tackle Paris Johnson will eventually be a left tackle.
That's exactly what you want to do, Like, you need
to rebuild this offensive line. So I think they're doing
things the right way. They're not just spending there's no
reason they should have spent, you know on these these
one year, two year you know, veterans and you know,
(30:37):
completely botch your salary cap. Again, there's no reason for it,
like just this is a transition year. So I think
there's a difference between that and what they're doing and
just completely trying to lose like some of these teams
have done in the past. So we'll see what happens.
I think they'll play hard. I think they've got enough
guys in there who are playing for their next contracts
and are younger guys that will play hard. They just
(30:58):
don't have the talent. I mean, I would say, if
you want a piece of advice, a little kind of
free advice, play Brian Robinson this week in DFS look
at some of his prop numbers. The running back for Washington.
The one area I know internally that Arizona is really
worried about is there is the middle of their defensive line.
(31:18):
It's a real real sieve they're gonna be able to
run the ball up and down the field on them.
So take that for what it's worth. But I do
like what they're doing. I mean, I think even if
you think that they're tanking, they're building something right there,
and they could have the top two. They could have
the top two picks and potentially have Kyler Murray you know,
who knows if someone will trade for him. You know,
he could have that trade asset. They would probably be
(31:39):
okay just get you know, if they decide to go
that route and take Kaylob Williams or Drake May you know,
trade them for you know, for a couple of picks,
even if their mid round picks, just to get the
salary off the books. You know, that's in play. They're
building it the right way. So I think, you know,
they'll be feisty, maybe kind of like the you know,
Dan Campbell Lions were a couple of years ago. But
(32:00):
you know, I don't think they'll get a lot of wins.
But I think they'll be feisty, and I wouldn't touch
Week one. Like you said, I think it's gonna be
a slug fest. I think they're gonna go slow on offense.
They're gonna run the ball. I think defensively, Jonathan Ganin's
defense is to keep everything in front of you, limit
explosive plays. So they're gonna force Sam Howell to kind
of dink and dunk and they're gonna, you know, use force.
Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson to run the ball, so
(32:22):
I think they'll take time off the clock. So I
think this is gonna be a lower scoring kind of
seventeen ten, seventeen thirteen type games. So that that'stimation for
Week one.
Speaker 1 (32:31):
Again small scale, but like Eric B. Enemy was the
offensive coordinator in the Super Bowl, Gannon was the DC
Eagles fans were so upset at him because of that
second half.
Speaker 3 (32:41):
The Chiefs just move the ball up and down the field.
Speaker 1 (32:43):
But does the Enemy get any credit for that or
do we expect him to have some intimate knowledge of
what Gannon wants to do, because since a lot of
people say it was Andy Reid's game plan all the time.
Speaker 2 (32:54):
Yeah, that's the million dollar question, Like nobody knows. I
think there's a reason why Eric B. Enemy has not
moved up, right, there's you know, if you talk to
people around the league and they won't say it publicly,
but they'll say it privately. Because I've heard that heard
these things. There's a reason why at the Enemy has
not gotten a head coaching job. It's just is what
it is. I mean, he's just he doesn't doesn't do
(33:15):
great in interviews, he doesn't get the credit that you
know for the offense. We know it's Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid.
There's just a lot of things he rubs. He rubs
players the wrong way. You already saw it. Ron Rivera
was complaining, you know, a few weeks in the training game.
So I have no idea, like, I'm sure he's he's
there's something that had to have rubbed off on him
that he can put, you know, install into this offense.
(33:37):
I just you know, that's always a question mark. I mean,
remember Adam Gase was the guy who got credit for
Peyton Hanning in Denver, right, and look what happened in
Miami and New York. So like it doesn't you know,
those things don't always translate. So I would kind of
lean on this not being a high powered offense, but
you know, you just never know until it happens real quick.
Speaker 1 (33:57):
Falcons Panthers. A lot of people have come on this
podcas as you work with Warren Sharp before anothers have
said Falcons are the team.
Speaker 3 (34:03):
The schedule, it's all about the schedule.
Speaker 1 (34:05):
I don't I don't did Desmond Rider do anything in
the preseason because I don't know what to expect from
this offense. A lot of people seem to think their
Falcons are going to dominate. Like I drafted him in
fantasy defensive the people are stunned.
Speaker 3 (34:18):
I kind of like them.
Speaker 1 (34:19):
But Week one against the Panthers, do they have the
pass rush to Rattlebryce Young who got his butt kicked
in the preseason and Frank Reraich, I think is bad
like a history of struggling badly in the season openers.
And I don't know, I don't I don't think the
pants are there, but their defense could keep them in it, right.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
Yeah, I actually have full disclosure your subscriber, so you
know I actually posted. You know, I took under forty
two and a half. It's about two weeks ago. And
then the next day the right angle. The right angle
sports guys took it as well, and it dropped down
to I think it's thirty nine and a half now,
So I would not play it. I mean, you know,
I think forty two is a key number. Forty's key number,
(34:58):
so you know, thirty nine and a half, I would
not touch it here. I just think I would air
on the side of this. Being again, I think the
Carolina defense is pretty good obviously, I mean the Brian
Burns situation is something to keep an eye on. He's
technically you know, I don't know if he's holding out
this week, but there sounds like I saw something about
how he you know, he it might be contract concerns,
(35:18):
so who knows that. I would keep keep an eye
on that. But yeah, the Carolina defense is pretty solid.
The one thing they do very well is they stopped
the run. They had a very tough schedule of opposing
run offenses last year that they stymied, and so I
think they'll be able to keep this Atlanta offense and check.
Like you said, Richard didn't really impress me at all
last year. He had He faced a bunch of you know,
(35:41):
kind of layup situations. He faced Tampa and Week eighteen
when they weren't playing for anything and played all their
backup defenders. He faced the Cardinals in Week seventeen when
they were you know, essentially you know, sitting everybody out.
I think Buddha Baker was sitting out. They had nobody
really that that of meaning, and so like, he had
a lot of easy situations and couldn't really do much
(36:02):
with them. You know, in New Orleans, I don't think
they scored a touchdown in uh in Baltimore scored nine points,
So it didn't really do much to impress me. And
I think they're just gonna kind of keep be conservative,
kind of hit the hit the layups with Kyle Pitts
and Drake London. They're gonna, you know, use b John
Robinson a lot. They're gonna run the ball. I think
they're gonna try to get a lead early and then
sit on it. So I think this is a you know,
(36:24):
conservative game plan. It's a lower scoring game. This line
went from what two and a half to is it
sitting at three and a half now? I think and yeah, yeah,
I mean I I again, Bryce Young did not impress
me in the preseason. It's tough for him to go right,
you know, right away. He doesn't have the mobility of
a Kyler Murray or Russell Wilson some of these other
smaller quarterbacks who can produce right away. He's got to
(36:45):
sit in the pocket. He can move a little bit,
but that's not his game and it's not easy to
win from the pocket. As a rookie. You don't usually
see that, especially someone who's who's kind of his you know,
at his stature. So we'll see. He eventually could figure
it out. But I think Week one is a tough spot,
and you know, I think Atlanta just you know, Atlanta
gets to win. I just don't know if I would,
I wouldn't take over field. Boy, this is way too
(37:07):
late to the party. But I'm not as high in
them as others. I do understand the schedule situation, but
you know, at some point you have to have a
quarterback like backing backing a guy like Desmond Ritter who
may not be a starting NFL quarterback, you know, to
to win the division. Like I've heard some people say
that's not that's not enough for me. I think the
defense is better, but they're not. They're not great like
(37:30):
they you know, Kalays Campbell's old. He's thirty seven years old. Yeah,
Bud Dupree is their top pass rusher, like he's been
mediocre the last couple of years since he left Pittsburgh.
I don't. I mean, Jesse Bates is a good in
one of their top you know, free agent signings. He's
a safety. He doesn't really move the needle. Safeties don't
don't don't move the needles much. So I think they're improved.
I just don't think they're great overall, the.
Speaker 1 (37:52):
Wide receivers of Carolina are they They're not great.
Speaker 3 (37:55):
Is dealing their number one? I don't.
Speaker 1 (37:57):
I don't know that they're good. And I'm looking aj
Terrell and Jeff Akuda.
Speaker 3 (38:01):
I know you like Akuda.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
He's had a rough start to his career, but like,
I don't know, I Carolina could be bad offensively.
Speaker 2 (38:07):
Man. Yeah, that's anyway I want to did not do
them any favors. They didn't, you know. Andam Thalan is
just a possession receiver now, he has no explosiveness. DJ
Chark is supposed to be their deep threat. He's already
hurt and he's had a career of injuries. So yeah,
they didn't do him any favors adding weapons.
Speaker 3 (38:22):
All right, we'll wrap up with my Jets. Obviously I
care about them intimately.
Speaker 1 (38:26):
We've had the longest we have had the longest postseason
drought of anyone. You get Rogers, you get Dalvin Cook.
There's reason to be excited. Schedule the first six weeks.
He's going to tell the story. I hate the fact
that several people have come on this pod and said
Buffalo is the play in Week one, the line has
gone toward the Jets from three to one, but that
could just be. Sorry, a lot of money in the
(38:48):
New York area going to fan duel and all those
whatever they are maybe shifting the market. Where are you
a Jets, Bills and b Jets over over overview.
Speaker 2 (38:58):
You know, I don't have a play on the week one.
I think it's it's lined exactly right. There's so much,
just so much intriguing, and I just don't know what
to make of the Jets. Like one day I'll sit
there and be like, you know, their defense was elite
last year and they didn't force any turnovers at all,
Like they were one of the worst teams in the NFL.
And you know, turnovers are flimsy year to year, right,
Like they're very variable. You know, sometimes it's just a
(39:20):
bounce of the ball. So if they got a few more,
you know, if you if you assume some regression with
the defense from a turnover perspective, like they could be
the best defense in the NFL. At the same time,
literally nobody got hurt on their defense, Like their entire
secondary was healthy. I think their top three corners obviously
including saut Garden or DJ Reid et cetera. Didn't miss
a single game. CJ. Mosley didn't miss a game. Quinn
(39:42):
Williams I think missed one game. Like, what are the
odds that all of that's gonna happen again? So, you know,
I kind of go back and forth on the defense,
They're probably gonna be really good. I just don't know
exactly how good and can they Can they produce the
same levels last year? There'll be a question. Obviously we
know Robert Solid could coach defense, So I think they'll
be I'm gonna kind of tilt on the side of
they'll be really good. And then offensively, look, the offensive
(40:04):
line is a problem. That is something that you can't
You can't hide a bad offensive line, no matter who
your quarterback is. We saw that with Patrick Mahomes in
the Super Bowl against Tampa a few years ago. Right,
So you know, with a guy like Aaron Rodgers who's
used to having a top ten offensive line, can he
produce when he's not getting the time that he's used to.
I'm not sure. You know, Garrett Wilson, I love him.
(40:25):
He's an Ohio State guy. You know, I think they've
got plenty of weapons on the outside Dalvin Cook, like
you mentioned with Breese Hall, is a really nice one
two punch. I just don't know how explosive they could
be if they can't If they can't get McKai Beckton playing,
I mean, you need McKai Beckton to be you know,
the top you know, a top tackle, and you need
health on that offensive line. If you get it, you
(40:46):
know there's upside there. Dwayne Brown's got you know, he's
older obviously, but he can still play a little bit.
It's it's quite you know, it's it's it's up and down.
Like if McKai Bereckton is either hurt or if he
can't produce, then you're you're in trouble. But I take
the way personally, I'm gonna play the Jets. I'm not
gonna do anything in Week one. I'm gonna wait and
see their first six games, like you mentioned, absolutely brutal.
(41:07):
I mean, Buffalo, Dallas, New England, Kansas City, Denver, and Philly.
That's that's as tough as you'll ever see. If they
can go even two and four, like, I'll give it.
Speaker 3 (41:16):
If they wait, wait with three and three. What's wrong
with three and three?
Speaker 2 (41:19):
If they go with three and three. You know, if
they go three and three, I would look to them
to win the AFC. I would look at their AFC
and Super Bowl odds because the rest of their schedules
a lot, a lot better. And if you can get
through that gauntlet three and three, to me, then I
think you've got you know, you've got really really tantalizing upside.
And I don't know what the price will be on
them if they go three and three, but you'll get
(41:40):
I don't think you'll get a worse price than you've
got right now. I mean, there's no reason to take
them now because the odds of them going forward to
five and one, six and zero is really really low, right,
And I'll take my chances that they can't do that
against this team. I mean, you got a brand new quarterback.
We saw with Tom Brady when he went to Tampa.
You know what happened the first half of that season.
He struggled early. So it's not easy to just we
(42:02):
saw that with Matt Ryan. Obviously he's over the hill.
But these veteran quarterbacks, Russell Wilson, they go to these
new systems right away, these new offenses. It's not easy
to just transition and step in and be a Hall
of Fame quarterback. So I would wait and give it
six weeks and see where they're at. If they're two
and four, three and three, that's what I expect, I
would pounce on potentially looking at you know, if you
can get twenty to one and twenty five to one
(42:24):
to win the super Bowl at that point, then I
would think it's it's actually worth a look.
Speaker 3 (42:29):
Yeah, I think we'll know early.
Speaker 1 (42:30):
Right, if Buffalo's defensive line without Von Miller, which is
kind of a big deal because last year Week one,
I think they sacked Stafford like nine times. So if
they struggle with the pass rush and the Jets win,
you feel great. If they lose and Rogers to sack
like six times, well you're you're probably dead. Week two
against Dallas and Parsons, you know, that's a brutal Like
those are two of the best front fours in the league.
(42:52):
Maybe could you say two of the top like seven
between Buffalo and Dallas like that.
Speaker 3 (42:56):
That's nasty to start.
Speaker 1 (42:57):
And then the Patriots had a top five defense last
year by a lot of metrics, so they've got to
win this opener against Buffalo. It's at home Rogers first game.
Speaker 3 (43:07):
I don't know, man, I'm very excited. I'm surprised you
don't have a pick in that one.
Speaker 2 (43:12):
I can't have a pick out every game. I think
I think it's lined right. Like, here's the thing. The
Jets did pretty well against Josh Allen last year.
Speaker 3 (43:18):
You know, they did defensively.
Speaker 2 (43:20):
Yeah, so so I think what don't surprise me at all.
I just I just can't you know, first game, Like
I said, I mean Tom Brady, remember did he throw
two pick sixes in that opener against New Orleans when
he went to Tampa?
Speaker 1 (43:31):
Like, oh, you're right, yes, divisional matchup?
Speaker 3 (43:34):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. It's just it's just hard
for sure.
Speaker 2 (43:37):
Yeah yeah, it's just hard to back a quarterback in
that spot. And you know, it's just different, especially with
an offensive line like that. They're gonna they're gonna probably
blitz him a lot. And look, I think it's a
coin flip. I think it's lined the right way. And
you know, Buffalo is very talented. They're one of the
most talented teams in the league. So I think it's
gonna be a great game. Like, you know, I think
(43:57):
it could be kind of a coin flip from that perspective.
So yeah, no play for me, but I think it's fun.
Speaker 3 (44:02):
Yeah all right.
Speaker 1 (44:03):
Do you have an offer for listeners of straight Fire
on your site?
Speaker 2 (44:07):
Yeah? So, since you've been such a good friend to
the to me and you kind of, like I said,
help me kind of rise in the ranks, I'm offering
anyone who uses the code Jmac Jmac to go sign
up at my website, Cleve Analytics. You'll get You'll get
fifty bucks off of a full season subscription. So and
like you know Jason mentioned earlier, this is not a
pick site. This isn't like I'm just here are my
(44:28):
my pick releases. This is I go through I tell
you what I'm taking personally, just because people want to
know what I'm on in full transparency, So I do that.
But I also have write ups on every single game
every single week. I have, you know, Jason will a test.
You've got all the matchup stats, you can look at
any you know, quarterback stat, defensive stat, you know, team stat.
I go through the injury reports, which is very vital
when when it comes to making a wager. I do
(44:51):
DFS analysis. I talk about some of the sleepers out
there I have Survivor Analysis. I call it a one
stop shop for degenerates. You know, the average Joe doesn't
just wager on games, right like, you know, You've got
a survivor entry, You've got pickpools, you've got dfs, so
kind of a little bit for a little bit of
everything for everyone. And this year all new tools. You
(45:12):
could do a really good research on some of the
against the spread and totals and some of the quarterback
stats that take you back to two thousand. So really
interesting stuff, I think, and something for everybody to do
their own research.
Speaker 1 (45:24):
And what do they say, give a man of fish,
he'll eat for a day. Teach a man how to fish,
and he'll eat forever. So ta great stuff. As always,
thanks for taking the time, buddy, and continued success with
the site.
Speaker 2 (45:36):
Thanks Jason, I appreciate it.
Host
Jason McIntyre
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