September 21, 2023 • 39 mins
On today’s episode, Jason kicks things off with his Best Bet for the Thursday Night Football showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and New York Giants. Later, ‘Straight Outta Vegas’ on FOX Sports Radio host Bernie Fratto swings by to discuss NFL week 3 from a gambling perspective. Fratto gives his picks for Las Vegas Raiders vs Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos vs Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills vs Washington Commanders, Chicago Bears vs Kansas City Chiefs, and much more!
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up
straight Fire, Fam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire or Thursday,
September twenty first. Got a great guest today to break
down Week three in the NFL. You know him if
you listened to the podcast last year. We had him
on Vegas Guy Fox Sports Radio Guy, Bernie Fratto. Listen.
(00:34):
I love talking gambling with Bernie and we got a
lot of gambling fans, degenerates and reasonable smart people who
are using in numbers based analytics to thrive on the
gambling front. Bernie mixes it all in. You're really gonna
like it. Before we get to Bernie, I'll give you
a quick best bet on Niners Giants tonight. There's really
no other big story percolating. There was the cam Acer's trade.
(00:57):
The Rams somehow got off cam Akers sent him to
the Vikings under the guys of hey, Kevin O'Connell, you
knew cam Would you like him? Would you you know Madison,
you know, had had that rough fumble against the Eagles.
You want cam Akers? And the Vikers were like, sure,
we'll swap late round draft picks. So it's basically just
get him off to get him out of town, ship
him out. So it's Kyrien Williams now the man for
(01:18):
the Rams. If you are a fantasy player, I don't
think this trade does much, except if you have Alexander
Madison in fantasy you're not thrilled. Although I think it's
gonna be a pass happy attack. Sunday when the Chargers
play the Vikings, I don't know why I like the
Chargers again in that game. Then again, I've liked the
Chargers every week. What's not to love? I mean, they
should have won the first game against I mean, Miami
(01:38):
converts two long ass third downs late in that game
and then go in and score, and then the Chargers
had plenty of time, they just couldn't protect Herbert. And
then the Chargers leading virtually the entire way against the Titans.
They're driving with plenty of time left, plenty of timeouts,
and they have to settle for a field goal, force
overtime and then blow it like they should be two
and oh, Like you could make the case Denver could
be two and oh Chargers should be two and oh.
(02:00):
I'm I'm not out on the Chargers. I don't think
you make a big bet on a coin toss game.
But I think, as I said earlier in the week
to over in Vikings, Chargers, feels like a lot it's
going up all week. I'm not gonna get into the
bear stuff because as soon as Field's got the gist
from teammates or pr whoever, that he kind of stepped
in it. When he threw the coach under the bus,
(02:20):
it was it sounded like, you know, after he explained it,
it sounded like maybe he just simply misspoke and there's
no need to freak out, you know that being said,
Forty nine Ers Giants tonight, and it looks like it's
going to be headed up a little bit on Thursday.
No Saquon Barkley, No Andrew Thomas, the left tackle for
(02:43):
the Giants. The Giants are also going to be down.
I believe they're right guard its You guys can toss
this office. Oh it doesn't really matter, and they're just
down a guard and Andrew Thomas. Okay, I mean, you know,
you're facing an elite team in the San Francisco forty
nine Ers, an elite front in the Niners. They're gonna
be trotting out a defensive line. Evan Neil, according to
(03:04):
Pro Football Focus, ranked seventieth of seventy one tackles. Their
one guard mckethan. I'm not that familiar with him. He
played in week two. He graded out pretty well. It
was against Arizona. They have no pass rush Smitch who
had the rookie Michael Schmidt's adam? I think Minnesota. He
had a terrible snap that was a killer on that drive.
(03:26):
He grades out as the twenty fourth of thirty three centers.
The left guard, whoever this guy is, Mark Glowinski played
a little bit in Week two, and then Izunu is
going to fill in at left tackle. He filled in
for Andrew Thomas last game against you.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
I don't want to hear.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
Oh, he did well against Arizona, Like to stop, what
does that mean? Doesn't mean Jack squat. So one of
the ways I look at the matchups is you go
to Pro Football Focus, assuming you have an account or
you know you're biting off your friend's account, and you
can they they actually have the game, and you can
look at lineups. So you can look at, oh, let's
see who Bosa is gonna line up against. Let's see
who the Giants will put up against. One of the
(04:09):
best pass rushers. Oh, it's gonna be Evan Neil, the
second to worst right tackle in the league is gonna
face mister Bosa, who, by the way, if you care
about such grades, is the second edg rusher out of
one hundred and seven. And then in the middle you've
got Armstead and Hargrave, both who are Hardgrave is twelfth
and Armstead is twenty second. And again this is going
(04:29):
up against Pittsburgh's offensive line, and then the Rams, who
Rams are improved clearly, but like this defensive line is
gonna obliterate the Giants.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
Do you remember what the Cowboys did?
Speaker 4 (04:40):
Like?
Speaker 2 (04:40):
Why is that not gonna happen again? Like none of
these Giants receivers Hodskins slate and they don't scare you.
You know, I'm even hearing the oh well, the Giants
could all that great? The good vibes they had in
the second half against Arizona, what are you talking about?
Like just because they got hot and they were desperate,
and they said, Daniel Jones just go run around ramble
(05:00):
good luck?
Speaker 3 (05:01):
Yeah, try scrambling.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Against the forty nine ers linebackers, Warner Greenlaw good luck?
Who funo you gonna running around with that guy back there,
Dane Jones, to get decapitated. I just don't see how
they score. Maybe there's a miscue on special teams and
the Giants. I just don't see how the Giants get
to like thirteen points. I just don't see it. So
I'm on the Niners. You know ten, I got ten
(05:25):
and ten and a half.
Speaker 4 (05:26):
I don't.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
I just don't hate it. I do hate that they
got shafted last week at the Rams kick at the
end there by McVeigh, who, by the way, has tried
to explain it, and it's still not making sense two
days later. Maybe I'm missing something, maybe the Niners who
are sleepy. I saw a stat that the forty nine
Ers in their last seven home games are seven or
(05:48):
zero against the spread. Whatever that's worth, you know, a
trend alert. But it's just like Giants stayed out West.
That could be beneficial. It's just to me in the trenches,
a huge advantage to San Francisco. And I like the
Niners here. Sorry, I think they get it done fairly easily.
I don't expect this to be a fun game, and
(06:10):
for the bank roll, I would like it if it
was not very fun. And the Niners just choked him out,
and you know, halftime it was like twenty zero or something.
All Right, without further ado, let's get to our guest,
Fox Sports Radio's Bertie Fratto.
Speaker 1 (06:28):
You know a guy, Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
I know what sports dance wants.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
But for everything he doesn't, he knows the guy who does.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows the
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
All right, let's bring in a guest we've had on
the podcast before.
Speaker 3 (06:48):
You know him big. He's big time.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
I saw a big article in the Sun Times about
him from December. He's in Vegas making things happen, although
I don't like the Raiders. This weekend, we'll get into it.
Bertie Fratto joining us, Bernie, How you doing, my man?
Speaker 4 (07:01):
Hey, Jason, Good to be with you again. It must
be that time of year.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
We always do this at the beginning of football season,
and I just got to say one thing. It didn't
take long and Brandon Staley is already making history again,
you know, Jason. In the history of the NFL, there
have been thirty three occasions where a team in their
first two games, has scored more than fifty points and
(07:25):
ten turned the ball over once.
Speaker 4 (07:28):
The Chargers scored fifty eight points in the first two.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
Games, didn't turn the ball over once, and yet they
lost both games. That has never happened in the history
of the NFL until now.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
Brutal. I was not on them in the contest in
the circuit contest either week. I really wanted to take
them against the Titans, thank thank goodness. I may like
them this week. We'll get into that soon, Bernie. Let's
start with just macro big picture on the first two
weeks that are in the books. You give us the
divisional dogs every year. In week one, I think they
went five and three in week one. I'm just curious,
(07:59):
how did you do? Did you make out in the
first two weeks so far?
Speaker 1 (08:02):
I'm off to a pretty good start fortunately. Yeah, Divisional Dogs.
Week one, we're five and three. Three of the dogs
one out right last week. Teams who lost by double
digits Week one cover about sixty percent of the time.
In Week two had a couple nice sunders and I
had to hold my nose on one particular game this past week.
(08:22):
But I was glad that the Seattle Seahawks came through
for me, I got it at six before it went
down to four.
Speaker 4 (08:29):
But be that as to me, I'm still pretty high
in the lion.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
So Jason, yeah, that's interesting. No closing line value? What
the opposite way? And you still cash it?
Speaker 3 (08:37):
Is Bernie. There's so many like quote unquote rules.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
And trends, and all these guys are trying to make
their way with little kernels of information.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
None of that stuff's predictive.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
And you know, I think we talk about this with
a lot of guests, and I know you look into it,
but like here we are week three and you see
a lot of double digit favorites, and you know the
rule is don't touch a double digit favorites. At what
point do we This is not blackjack, right, This is
not like hey, you hit on the book says that's
out the window. I'm curious where you are heading into
(09:09):
this week. Does anything jump off the board at you?
Speaker 1 (09:12):
Well, this is the last week, Jason, Week three where
I believe there are bona fide viable trends that truly correlate.
And one of the trends that's been pretty strong over
the years is teams that start out oh and two,
and in the NFL, if you start oh and two,
you're covering week three about fifty eight percent of the time.
(09:32):
If you start out oh and two and you're not
only oh and two straight up, but you were zero
and two against the spread, you're covering about sixty three
percent of the time. The Cincinnati Bengals fall into that
category in some of the Houston Texans, which are actually
my best bet. And I'll get to both of those
in a minute.
Speaker 4 (09:50):
We'll get to that. We'll tease that for a minute.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
But what I was gonna say, though, I'm still kind
of high on Cincinnati.
Speaker 4 (09:56):
I know everybody is, you know, prisoner of the moment.
Speaker 1 (09:59):
They they've been owing to two of the last three years,
and even in twenty twenty one, they had to go
overtime in week two to not go oh and two.
Jason the send off line for that game against the
Rams two weeks ago with six and a half, you
can now get it minus two, and I think I
think you'll see the Bengals right the ship this week.
So again, that's another team I like, I know.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Soon Wait, but Bernie, let me ask, how does the
Burrow handicap How are you factoring that in do you
want to bet it now at two in the hopes
that Borough plays, or do you just trust Jake Browning
and the Cincinnati defense. It doesn't it doesn't give it
matter at all. You're Rocke Macincy.
Speaker 4 (10:38):
Okay, that's a very good question.
Speaker 1 (10:40):
If Burrow was not going to play, I think we'd
see that more reflected in the line. I'm certain Burrow
will play. I don't think that, you know, the Bengals
want to take a chance on going oh and three.
The structure that offense, look, they're rusty. He watched most
of the preseason from a golf cart, and interestingly enough, Jason,
as you well know, Sean McVay fielding a very young
(11:00):
team this year, so ironically his Rams played a lot
more snaps in the preseason than they did than most
teams did. So I think tough travel spot for the
Rams since he's got a little extra time to prepare
for this game. Bottom line is this. I think you
see Cincinnati right the ship. I love lou Anna Rumo's defense.
He'll pick Stafford off twice. Love my guy, Matt Stafford
(11:22):
right on Q fourth quarter last week two key picks
could have had four. I think Cincinnati's got the much
better squad, and you're gonna get him a real cheap
right now, you got a real bargain with him.
Speaker 4 (11:32):
I think they're right the ship.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
So one of the pushbacks would be so I missed
on the Rams in week one, for sure. I didn't
take Seattle in the contest. But what I missed was
mcveigh's familiarity with Pete Carroll. He knew them intimately, and
he beat the hell out of Carroll historically, and they
crushed him in Week two. He knows Shanahan. Shanahan's got
the better of him. Shanahan should have got the cover
(11:56):
that late field goal.
Speaker 3 (11:57):
But like, the.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
Preparation was different for teams that you know and facing
division and you've been facing them twice a year or
three times in the case of Sanfray. Now it's got
to be a Bengals team.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
I mean, Bernie, I.
Speaker 2 (12:08):
Don't know what prep is like for the Rams, but
I could guarantee you they weren't doing any almost any
Bengals prep here the last like three weeks, right, they
were all preparing for Seattle in Sanfray. So now it's
like on a short week, well not a short week,
but you got a week together to put together a
game plan. How does that impact the Bengals.
Speaker 1 (12:27):
Well, I think the Bengals are going to be extra motivated.
Not only are the Bengals zeroing to Jason, they lost
both games.
Speaker 4 (12:35):
To divisional opponents.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
And in the history of the NFL, it's only happened
seven times where a team starts so and two and
they lost both games to divisional opponents. In each of
those instances, all seven, none of those teams went on
to make the playoffs. But I think you're going to
see an extra motivated Cincinnati team. I'm glad you brought
up Seattle and the Rams Week one. That was another
(12:57):
one of those divisional dogs who covered Yes, right, when
you've got two divisional teams playing each other Week one,
Remember both teams are healthy. Depression hasn't said it yet.
You've had plenty of time to game plan and prepare.
To your point about how well that Sean McVay knows
Pete Carroll. And finally, it takes about three or four
(13:20):
weeks in the NFL for the Cream to sort of
separate from the pack.
Speaker 4 (13:24):
Seattle's a better team than the Rams.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
You didn't see that Week one you'll see it with
those two play again in a few weeks, so Seattle
will hit their stride. They started two against Detroit. The
Rams have probably already level off somewhat. You're gonna get
a max effort out of them. But clearly on paper,
this is an eight nine to nine to eight team
at best. For Seattle, I think is a ten win team.
So Week one common you know pattern that we've seen
(13:46):
over the years. Two divisional opponents, very evenly matched, and
you know, the better team hasn't had a chance to
separate yet because they haven't got their legs under him
at that point in the season.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
Gotcha, Let's go to the Houston game. You mentioned Houston
is I believe at Jacksonville. Jacksonville coming off a humbling
loss to the Chiefs. A lot of people I think
the Jags took money last week in this spot and everybody,
all the sharp money was wrong. I just like to
say that, because all the sharps think that they're so
sharp and great. Sharp money's wrong often, but usually you
(14:18):
know what, fifty percent of a little less than fifty
percent of the time, and they were way off on
the Jags. So now the Jags face a Houston team
Bernie that they crushed them last year thirty one to three,
but the prior nine meetings Houston had beaten them. They
had their number for whatever reason. I just saw the
Houston injury report. Holy hell, they are so beat up.
(14:39):
Sounds like four offensive linemen will be down. Top three
safeties out like Trevor Lawrence should bounce back strong here,
I like an idiot, bet the Jags at eight and
a half. I see it's at nine and a half
added toward ten, But you like the Texans. Are you
waiting on the ten or did you already grab grab
a number just thinking that Houston's acide.
Speaker 1 (14:57):
Haven't done anything yet. But I insist on getting the
ten if I have to buy the half point. Let
me digress for just a second. Jason, you bring up
a great point about the term sharp money in Vegas.
The sharp money is the respected money, the way to
be considered respected money. Books pay attention to the amounts
folks bet, but moreover, when they make the bet.
Speaker 4 (15:18):
What do I mean by that?
Speaker 1 (15:20):
The sharp money folks always managed to get the best
line value when they bet the game. For instance, they're
not going to chase the line last week again Seattle
open at six. The Sharps would have come in at six,
they wouldn't have chased it down to four and a half.
So sharp money becomes respected money when it is noted
that time and time again, the timing in which the
(15:42):
individual or the syndicates make the bet seems to be
the most opportune, when the line is at its most
right for the better, whether you're taking the dog or
the favorite. Now, let me tell you why I like
Houston this week. Yes they're zer and two, and yes
they didn't cover either game. History tells us zero to
two teams who start going too that don't cover this
pride either week cover the spread sixty three percent week three.
(16:06):
That's built into the line. Here, you're getting a nice
heavy line, double digit line. You know CJ's dropped three
for three hundred and eighty four yards last week. I
thought he looked pretty good. Nico Collins and Robert Woods
establishing themselves as legitimate weapons. Houston blocks and tackles well,
and they're pretty physical under Dimico Ryans. Here's the problem.
(16:26):
Something's wrong with the Jaguars offense. They've only scored forty
points in two games. That's twelve less than the Colts
right now, if you watch the way this offense is yeah,
I mean, if you watch the way this offense is functioning,
you know, they couldn't score in a women's prison with
a fifth full of fifties.
Speaker 4 (16:42):
They're struggling.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
Houston contest, every player they blocked, they tackle. I'm really
impressed physically with how they handle their business against Baltimore.
Baltimore got the late front door cover. The Jags ranked
thirtieth and EPA playoffensively, and they're thirty first in the
pass rush.
Speaker 4 (16:59):
By the way, Houston ranks tenth and pass rush. Add
it all up.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
I think it's going to be a grind out affair
for the Jaguars, and I like Houston to hang that number.
Speaker 4 (17:07):
Ten is a nice good numbers.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
Yeah, no, it's a great point about ten.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
I am curious though that Colts game.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
So I watched a little bit Anthony Richardson. I was
on the Colts for peanuts, but I saw Anthony Richardson
go down.
Speaker 3 (17:20):
I'm like, damn it, I'm cooked.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
Should I buy back on the Texans? And then Gardner
Minshew comes in. He runs Stichens offense. I mean, Bernie,
they're winning thirty one ten in the fourth quarter before
some garbage time action from Stroud made it look respectable.
I don't know, man, are the Texans the worst team
in the league.
Speaker 4 (17:39):
I wouldn't say that.
Speaker 1 (17:41):
I still think probably Arizona, although Arizona gives an effort
to Buddy and they're catching a nice points to get
at home against Dallas this week, and that's one of
those all and two situations. You know, Week three is
still when you look at the technical factors, meaning all
in two teams and all the up against it, you're
gonna You're gonna a max effort. There's thet's say, one, two, three, four,
(18:03):
five six. There are eight own two teams that are
in action this week. By the way, there are only
two oh and two teams that face each other, Minnesota
and the Chargers. And when that ever happens, you take
the dog and that covers sixty four percent of the time.
Speaker 4 (18:18):
Right now in the games and pick them. But there's
no way I can back Randon stately. There's just no way.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
He's supposed to be defensive specialists, and ironically their defense
stinks can't hold the lead right so that I'm gonna
pass on that game, and I'm also gonna pass on
the Bears. They're ower and two, getting thirteen against Kansas City.
I cannot, will not, never have will back justin fields. Uh,
there are serious issues there. He's five and twenty two
(18:43):
as a starter. I don't know why people are treating
this guy with k gloves. I said it a year ago, Jason,
You've been around the game a long time. Football quarterback
is a position you play with your eyes. You receive
the ball, you make mental snapshots, you make a pre
posting that reachs. You try to match up the offensive
scheme you're running versus the defensive set you're opposing. You
try to find openings. He can't do it. He's the
(19:05):
game is too fast for him. He's he observes what
he's seeing, and he's slow to make a decision. He's
slow to react, and he's got a very slow release,
and he's not accurate facts.
Speaker 4 (19:16):
You know.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
Other than that, he's brilliant. That's why he is five
and twenty two. His default mechanism is to run. He's
not at Ohio State anymore. At Ohio State he was
an outstanding quarterback because college football rewards that eleventh athlete.
You're if you're a dual threat quarterback, a college version
of a dual threat quarterback. Your default mechanism is to
run first because defenses aren't prepared for it. Not in
(19:37):
a National Football League, They'll kill you. He's gonna get hurt.
Anthony Richardson's already banged up. If Justin Field sinks, he's
going to play improvisational freelancer this week against Kansas City.
It's about to get even uglier than it already has.
I cannot back that team.
Speaker 2 (19:50):
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(21:16):
Eligibility and deposit restrictions apply. My big issue with Fields
is I was on them in the contest against Tampa.
I was like, listen, Tampa's not that good. What's his debaker?
Mayfield will make mistakes. He has his through an entire career,
and you know what, this is a good run game
for Fields and lo and behold Fields has I think
three rushes for four yards or two rushes for some
(21:37):
minuscule number.
Speaker 3 (21:38):
I'm like, what are you doing, Bernie. He's sitting in
the pocket getting.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
Sacked left and right there. Goaloffensive line is already decimated
by injuries. I guess the question would be, why isn't
he running? I know, maybe long term you want to
win from the pocket, but you need to get a
win here. You gotta go ninety ninety five yards in
the fourth quarter to tie it up. I'm like, hey,
Shador Sanders could do it in Colorado, Justin Fields could
get it done in Tampa.
Speaker 3 (22:00):
To play the prevent Fields.
Speaker 2 (22:02):
Throws a frigging pick six on like the on an
awful call that he actually kind of blamed on the
on the coordinator, you know, and Tampa even said, dude,
we saw this play like five minutes before or a
quarter before, we knew it.
Speaker 3 (22:14):
Was coming, and it's like, what's happening in Chicago.
Speaker 1 (22:16):
Bernie Chudor Sanders is actually a better quarterback than Justin Fields.
He's got better footwork, better recognition, his decision making. Oh,
I'm telling you this kid, he's a first round draft choice.
Let's go back to Field.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
That's a major hot take. Shoe a hold on Bernie Shadoor.
Sanders is is better. We're going to be better than Fields.
Speaker 4 (22:35):
I mean Field's numbers, but he's better. He's better now, Jason.
Speaker 1 (22:40):
If you if people ascertain what is expected of a
quarterback on the NFL level, Chudoor Sanders is more NFL ready.
Speaker 4 (22:47):
He knows what he's looking at.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
He's got an ability to not only make the right
decision quickly and get the damn ball out of his hands.
Speaker 4 (22:55):
Fields can't get the ball out of his hands. He can't.
Speaker 1 (22:58):
Shador does and gets it to the right guy. It's incredible.
Hold that thought. We get to get to that laker.
So here's what's happening in Chicago. Justin Fields is a
big miss and no one wants to admit it. He's
five and twenty two as a starter. He ran for
a thousand yards last year and they won three games.
So if running was so important, why doesn't it lead
to winning games. There's another thing that's bothersome. Look at
the offense they're running Week one against Tampa Bay. They
(23:21):
allowed him four attempts of more than ten yards. They're
not even allowing him to do it and do anything
because they're afraid he's gonna turn the ball over. This
is an unmitigated disaster. And what he said today is
very bothersome. Justin Fields is an improvisational freelancer.
Speaker 4 (23:36):
Look, there's been.
Speaker 1 (23:37):
A lot of athletic quarterbacks come out of college over
the years. Cam Newton threw for four hundred yards this
first game. He could actually operate from the pocket. So
could Kyler Murray. Soa can Lamar Jackson. Do you understand
that you can keep a play alive with your feet?
But defensive coordinators are too smart. If you make yourself
one dimensional and they know you can't pass, you're in trouble.
That's what's happening to Justin Fields. And I'll even taking
(23:59):
a step further, Jason. When Justin Field is making his
pre snap red walking toward the line of scrimmage, he's
got to notice if the defense is in a zone
or manda man because even when he runs, he's a freelancer.
If a quarterback sees his own defense, your job is
to run latterly so your receivers can cider just their
routes and get open. If the defense is man to man,
(24:20):
most likely the dbs have their back to the quarterback,
which means you could run vertically. The closest defender to
you is thirty yards away, your strong safety. He's not
even recognizing that. It looks like it looks like a
Monty Python cartoon. He just run around all over the place.
It's not working, Jason, you can see that it's not working.
He drops back. You know you saw dan Orlofski's diagram.
(24:41):
It was brilliant and two wide open receivers. He caught
like he was ready to throw, and I don't know
what happened. He was afraid to let go of the ball.
He wasn't sure trusting his red or he's lost his confidence.
It takes a lot to be a major league quarterback.
It's a position you play with your eyes. By the way,
what I've seen that of Bryce Young.
Speaker 4 (24:58):
Be patient.
Speaker 1 (24:59):
He's going to be fine. He's got command of the position.
Now back to Shudor Sanders. It's clearly he's been coached
by Brady and Dion. You know, spent what sixteen years
in the NFL, so he knows what he's looking at.
This is a young man who understands how to operate
from the pocket and let the offensive schemes and the
row trees flow from there and make decisions with your
(25:20):
eyes and then execute. You can't just drop back and
take off and run because it's convenient you don't know
what to do.
Speaker 4 (25:27):
Not the National Football League.
Speaker 2 (25:28):
Boy crushing Justin fields man. That was harsh. All right,
let's quickly pivot to the Thursday game, Giants at Niners.
I just saw the Giants injury report before we came
on to record here Wednesday afternoon. Saikwan's out left tackle
Andrew Thomas is out. One of their starting guards is out.
One of their head rushers, o Jalari is out.
Speaker 3 (25:50):
Bernie, I know you.
Speaker 2 (25:51):
The card is supposed to say, don't take double digit
don't take double digit favorites.
Speaker 3 (25:56):
I'm sorry.
Speaker 2 (25:56):
I have a couple bets on the Niners already at
ten and a half and at ten, and I can't
help myself. I can't make a case for the Giants here.
The Niners, I believe, are one of the best three
teams in the NFL, and I think they should be
able to handle New York here. Bottle up the Saquon
less Giants. Remember Daniel Jones without Saquon Barkley was hot garbage.
(26:17):
Only last year when Saquon was healthy did it work.
Matt Brida, he ain't the guy.
Speaker 3 (26:21):
Bernie. I gotta go Niners here.
Speaker 4 (26:24):
Jason, I really can't disagree with anything you've said.
Speaker 1 (26:27):
Just as a rule of ThM, I don't want to
ever lay double digit numbers in the history of the NFL,
going back to the the merger. If you just blindly
took double digit dogs, you'd be at fifty four percent.
Speaker 4 (26:38):
But you really can't make a case for New York
right here. Tough travel spot.
Speaker 1 (26:41):
They stayed on the left coast, got to go to
San Francisco back to back road games. You mentioned they're
depleted in injuries. The forty nine ers are the most
complete team on both sides of the ball. And by
the way, brock Purdy, I don't know why you would
have dollars at this point. Justin fields take notes. Brock
Purdy plays the position the way it's supposed to be played.
Speaker 3 (27:00):
I think he's got Kyle Shanahan.
Speaker 1 (27:02):
You know, well, yeah, fair, but you've still got to
execute the system. Rielance couldn't do it either. So the
bottom line.
Speaker 3 (27:10):
Is that's fair, that's right.
Speaker 1 (27:12):
I would just I would just say this. I won't
be on the game, but the Niners are the only
side I can look to.
Speaker 4 (27:18):
Would not surprise me.
Speaker 1 (27:19):
If you look up in the fourth quarter, it's thirty
one to seven and you got a rocking tier game
on your hands.
Speaker 4 (27:24):
I can't make a case for New York. Everything you
said is it is spot on.
Speaker 2 (27:29):
Yeah, A next game I want to attack. I bet
this early Buffalo Washington. I thought there's no way this
game stays at six and a half. I'll let me
grab a chunk of the Bills. My biggest bet of
the year lot so far is Bills over Raiders, which
is a lot last. I just think like Buffalo got
their clunker out. When they face an elite defense, it's tough.
Washington is not any elite defense. Russell Wilson embarrassed them
(27:52):
for a half. I don't see why Josh Allen and
company is aren't going to be able to move the ball.
Speaker 4 (27:56):
It will.
Speaker 2 (27:57):
The only question here is are they be able to
get pressure on Josh Allen. We know the Raiders couldn't,
but Ken Washington win at the line of scrimmage and
maybe force Allandard some mistakes.
Speaker 3 (28:07):
I just I don't know.
Speaker 2 (28:08):
I think the Bills are almost undervalued, Bernie because of
that primetime clunker. Well, they did lead thirteen three, but
primetime wasted game against the Jets and the opener.
Speaker 4 (28:18):
Well, and we all know why. There were four turnovers.
Speaker 1 (28:21):
And whenever a team, yeah in the National Football League,
loses the turn over a battle by three or more,
you lose that game thaninety four percent of the time. Okay,
Buffalo was fine then except for turnovers. I'm not a
daughter on Buffalo. I think they're gonna be very good.
They had the odd ball year last year, they lost
von Miller, they had to go to Detroit back to
back games in four days because of the snowstorm. In thanksgaming,
(28:43):
he had the unfortunate situation with Deamar Hamlin. Look, Josh
Allen is who he is. Eighty four turnovers and seventy
eight games, but he's also a dynamic playmaker and they
know it, and they got plenty of weapons. This is
a mismatch. And I also think they're going to be
chasing Sam hartmullell all over the field or not Sam Hartman,
Sam Houston, Well, yeah, probably Sam Hartman while we're at
(29:04):
But the bottom line is, yeah, I think you mentioned
Washington's front seven and it's good. Buffalo's front seven is
pretty good too, And I think if they have any
success on the ground, you're looking at a double. Did
you win for the Bills? I think you got a
good play there.
Speaker 2 (29:20):
And the other thing with Washington, everybody's all excited. Hey,
they beat Denver on the road.
Speaker 3 (29:24):
Just hold up.
Speaker 2 (29:25):
They look like complete dog shit against Arizona and the
opener they didn't cover. For me, I had them, they
didn't cover, and Howell looked awful.
Speaker 3 (29:34):
And then on the road.
Speaker 2 (29:35):
They start out down twenty one to three before Russell
Wilson vomits up a couple turnovers and makes it interesting.
I just I think people a lot of overreactions non
divisional matchup.
Speaker 3 (29:45):
You know, I don't love this one for Washington. How
about this? Why don't you pick a game you go after.
Speaker 4 (29:50):
Real quick, real quick? Jason?
Speaker 1 (29:52):
Well, the key takeaway for me is Washington surrendered thirty
three points. Denver just scores about thirty three points a
month last year after nine weeks jasons. You know, last year,
had Denver just averaged eighteen points per game in regulation,
they would have been eight and one after nine games.
So and then they come out Week one against the
(30:13):
stinky Raiders and they only score what sixty points? For
the fact they put up thirty three against that Washington defense,
Buffalo is gonna get their points, and yeah, Washington can't
get in a shootout with Buffalo.
Speaker 4 (30:25):
It's a big step up in class.
Speaker 3 (30:28):
I'll let you pick the next game. There's some stuff
out there.
Speaker 2 (30:30):
Bryce Young ankle injury, he missed practice. I don't know
if that appeals to you.
Speaker 3 (30:35):
Is there any have you hit any of.
Speaker 2 (30:37):
The other these other games before we get to obviously
Jets and Patriots, which I think I'm gonna have to
stay away from betting this week, But I don't know.
Speaker 3 (30:43):
I'm just curious as to your thoughts.
Speaker 1 (30:45):
Well, the one game that jumped at me, but I
don't know if you can chase it now. I got
it at fifty one? Is the total in the Minnesota
Oh yeah, Charger's game. The Chargers six most in points
in the Vikings offense, I think it's been pretty good now.
The either defense has been great. You got perfect conditions
and doors. That game honestly feels like a thirty four
to thirty one game to me. I think it roars
over the total problem now is it's up to fifty four.
(31:08):
But I'm a big fan, honestly of the O and
two teams that are underdogs this week. Don't go to
sleep on Denver catching six and a half against Miami.
I wouldn't go to sleep on New England. They're at
the Jets and they're laying two points. But I actually
like who living in the spot. I've already told you
about Houston. You mentioned Carolina. Carolina plus five and a half.
(31:31):
Carolina went up there last year and pushed Seattle around
the field. Now they're getting five and a half. Maybe
you buy it to six and again. Arizona plus twelve
at home is appealing to me. So I'm focusing primarily
on the O and two teams that are dogs, with
the exception of the Bears, of course, and I do
like the over in the Minnesota Chargers game.
Speaker 3 (31:51):
Hold on, I gotta go back to something.
Speaker 2 (31:53):
So you a lot of these oh and two teams
that are dogs Patriots OHO and two oh and two
against the spread and their favorite Do you have anything
on favorites just by being too h and to two against.
Speaker 4 (32:04):
The Well, that's extremely rare. But the Lion's telling you
everything you need to know.
Speaker 1 (32:07):
The key is when you go back twenty two seasons,
the two thousand teams that are zero and two heading
into Week three, they're covering fifty eight percent of the time.
Speaker 4 (32:16):
And I don't think the Pats covered ether game, did they? Jason?
So that sixty.
Speaker 1 (32:22):
The Jets offenses. Look, Bill Belichick is gonna wreak havoc
on on Zach Wilson. And I think New England is
going to be able to run the ball, and they're
showing enough in flashes. They got to the red zone
repeatedly against Miami, a good team, So I think you're
looking at a grind out seventeen to thirteen game here.
I think New England wins. But again this only two
things served as well. Just like the the Divisional Dogs
(32:46):
Week one, you get desperate teams that are owing too
and they typically play a little but their head and
it's it's baked into the line.
Speaker 2 (32:53):
The Denver Miami thing is interesting. So a lot of
the perception here is Miami's favored by six and a half.
The big money won't let it hit seven and they'll
buy back. But I'm seeing, as of right now, bet Chris,
one of these offshore books is at minus seven minus
one oh two, so not the usual minus one ten.
(33:14):
It's interesting because Denver I saw statle. They're number one
in points per possession like Russ and Sean Payton is
working in the opener. They miss a field goal, they
missed an extra point, they lose a game in the
second one, they're up twenty one three, like some fluky
stuff has happened. I get I did bet, you know,
Miami at six and a half. I kind of regret it.
I'm not gonna do it in the contest. I don't think,
(33:36):
but I don't know. Like you know, all I heard
Sean Payton came into the studio last year almost every week,
and all he intimated was I want Vic Fangio.
Speaker 3 (33:45):
I want him as my DC.
Speaker 2 (33:46):
I want to get vict Like it was clear wherever
he went he wanted Fanngio. Now he has to face him,
and I just wonder if he wanted him because he's
such a defensive goods defensive coach, he's got a rich history,
and now that he's got to face.
Speaker 3 (33:59):
Him, I wonder, like, is Peyton a little nervous?
Speaker 2 (34:03):
Listen, you know they're gonna bring the house coming after
Russell Wilson, given he looks a lot slower. I don't
know do you break stuff down like that or do
you Is there no value because you know that's all
baked into the number.
Speaker 4 (34:17):
Jason, I wouldn't say there's no value. It's part of
the conversation.
Speaker 1 (34:21):
It's like Week one when Philadelphia played New England and
people were talking about how Matt Patricius from Aire with
New England and how do you quantify that. New England
played absolutely well enough to cover that game. They had
the two awful turnovers early. I love Vic Fangio too.
He was the architect of those forty nine ers defenses.
When they went to the Super Bowl. Went to Denver,
(34:43):
I thought did a serviceable job as the head coach there.
Now he's in Miami. The key to the game between
Miami and Denver. I know it's cliche, but whoever wants
a turnover battle is going to win that game. Russell
Wilson's been in enough high pressure games and I think
he's showing flash. Sean Payton's just about got him back
to reasonable facts, simile.
Speaker 4 (35:04):
But Denver has no margin of error.
Speaker 1 (35:06):
They're gonna have to finish their drives we're gonna have
to you know, look, third downs, the money down. Russell
Wilson's got to move the chains on third down. They
don't pay it a punt on third down. You've got
to payoff drives in the red zone. If if Denver
can do that, do not be surprised. If that's a
nail bider game going to the end. I think you're
gonna get max effort out of Denver. Miami starts out
to you a key divisional win, you can't bring it
(35:27):
every week. I mean, it's a situation. Do you know
what human beings here? Denver's gonna be the more motivated team.
And again you've got an O two team for some
two OHO team. The over history sixty two percent of
the time Denver tells us. That tells us Denver is
gonna hang around here.
Speaker 2 (35:43):
All right, we can wrap up with this one, Bertie
real quick. Pittsburgh Steelers going to Vegas. I'm assuming. I
don't know if it's a full SOFI situation where the
road team is gonna have a lot of fans, but
my guess is Pittsburgh's gonna travel.
Speaker 1 (35:54):
Well.
Speaker 2 (35:55):
They had a tough game Monday night. I haven't seen
any status, Bertie, this is line that surprises me more
than any other line. This week, the Raiders are favored
by two and a half over Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (36:07):
TJ.
Speaker 2 (36:07):
Watt looks healthy to me. Kenny Pickett looks healthy, Bernie.
This is all about everybody said, Oh, Pittsburgh looked awful.
They couldn't move the ball against the Browns.
Speaker 1 (36:15):
Bertie.
Speaker 2 (36:15):
I just want to remind people the Steelers face arguably
the best defense in the NFC in Week one, the
forty nine Ers, and then they faced the best defense
maybe in the AFC in Week two, the Browns, who
look incredible defensively. And yeah, of course the Steels are
gonna look like dogshit. What's gonna happen now when they
have to face the Raiders defense, which was just torched
by Josh Allen and his historically not good I don't know, man,
(36:38):
I think this has to be a big wager on Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (36:40):
No, what am I missing?
Speaker 1 (36:43):
I love the Pittsburgh side here, Jason, Mike Tomlin dressed
up as a dog has typically been money over the years,
and you are right. Their first two games Pittsburgh catch
kept much faster company. Pittsburgh can stop the run, it's
going to be a real long day for the Raiders,
long night for the Raiders. Josh Jacobs ran for minus
(37:03):
two yards against Buffalo and everything flowed from there.
Speaker 4 (37:06):
The Raiders are not a good team. They're not well coached.
Speaker 1 (37:08):
I'm not a big Josh McDaniels guy at all, you know,
I'm a big fan of in the NFL, how deceiving
looks can be one week and how a team can
look completely different the following week. Right, Seattle gets pushed
around by the Rams at home Week one, they go
to Detroit. Troit's got the third best offensive line in
the league, They've got a much upgraded defensive, powerful offense.
(37:31):
Seattle ten point lead, they hang on it ghost overtime
and they get her done.
Speaker 4 (37:35):
Completely different team.
Speaker 1 (37:36):
I think you're going to see a completely different Pittsburgh team.
And oh, by the way, you know, don't adjust your dial,
and you're gonna see black and gold instead of black and.
Speaker 4 (37:44):
Silver in the in the in the Allegiant Stadium.
Speaker 1 (37:47):
It'll be sixty seventy percent Pittsburgh fans, no doubt about it.
Speaker 2 (37:50):
I Perttie, I just I don't get why they would
hang this line. Is it because a short week for Pittsburgh.
Maybe there's listen, I know they can't stop the run,
and Chubb looked at before the injury, and then Ford
broke off a seventy yarder. I get it, you know,
the mister, the big guy in the middle again. I
just don't know what I'm missing. Why at the Raiders.
Speaker 1 (38:08):
Are favor Okay, this is a great question, and I
thought I always enjoyed kidd seeing with you. The one
thing I think that's a misnomer for all folks who
are fans of are betting is that when Vegas posts
the line, it's never a predictor. Vegas is not in
the fortune telling business and they're not in the predication.
They're merely putting a mathematical lineup designed to create equal
(38:30):
action on both sides so the book can maximize profit
and minimize loss.
Speaker 4 (38:34):
It all comes to power ratings, the power ratings. The
first two weeks for Pittsburgh have been terrible.
Speaker 1 (38:40):
They've not been good offensively, They're not been good defensively.
The Raiders had a deceivingly good game Week one at
Denver and looked pretty good. So when you look at
you know, yards per play, yards are lot per play
third down conversion, total yards, points, et cetera. Right now,
Pittsburgh mathematically off to a rough start. So you post
(39:01):
that line and let the markets signed from there, and
I think, right.
Speaker 4 (39:05):
Now all the values on Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1 (39:07):
But again, the two and a half is not a
predictive that the Raiders are going to win by three.
It's merely a market line designed mathematically to create equal
action on both sides.
Speaker 4 (39:15):
Honestly, that's all it really is.
Speaker 2 (39:17):
I think we'll see some game day money coming on
Pittsburgh and Hamlin the underdog. All right, Bernie Prouto, Fox
Sports Radio, great stuff as always, Bernie, a good thirty
minutes of NFL gambling talk.
Speaker 3 (39:27):
Be safe, and I'm sure I'll see you as soon, buddy.
Speaker 4 (39:29):
Best to you, Jason, Thanks for having me.
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up
straight Fire, Fam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire or Thursday,
September twenty first. Got a great guest today to break
down Week three in the NFL. You know him if
you listened to the podcast last year. We had him
on Vegas Guy Fox Sports Radio Guy, Bernie Fratto. Listen.
(00:34):
I love talking gambling with Bernie and we got a
lot of gambling fans, degenerates and reasonable smart people who
are using in numbers based analytics to thrive on the
gambling front. Bernie mixes it all in. You're really gonna
like it. Before we get to Bernie, I'll give you
a quick best bet on Niners Giants tonight. There's really
no other big story percolating. There was the cam Acer's trade.
(00:57):
The Rams somehow got off cam Akers sent him to
the Vikings under the guys of hey, Kevin O'Connell, you
knew cam Would you like him? Would you you know Madison,
you know, had had that rough fumble against the Eagles.
You want cam Akers? And the Vikers were like, sure,
we'll swap late round draft picks. So it's basically just
get him off to get him out of town, ship
him out. So it's Kyrien Williams now the man for
(01:18):
the Rams. If you are a fantasy player, I don't
think this trade does much, except if you have Alexander
Madison in fantasy you're not thrilled. Although I think it's
gonna be a pass happy attack. Sunday when the Chargers
play the Vikings, I don't know why I like the
Chargers again in that game. Then again, I've liked the
Chargers every week. What's not to love? I mean, they
should have won the first game against I mean, Miami
(01:38):
converts two long ass third downs late in that game
and then go in and score, and then the Chargers
had plenty of time, they just couldn't protect Herbert. And
then the Chargers leading virtually the entire way against the Titans.
They're driving with plenty of time left, plenty of timeouts,
and they have to settle for a field goal, force
overtime and then blow it like they should be two
and oh, Like you could make the case Denver could
be two and oh Chargers should be two and oh.
(02:00):
I'm I'm not out on the Chargers. I don't think
you make a big bet on a coin toss game.
But I think, as I said earlier in the week
to over in Vikings, Chargers, feels like a lot it's
going up all week. I'm not gonna get into the
bear stuff because as soon as Field's got the gist
from teammates or pr whoever, that he kind of stepped
in it. When he threw the coach under the bus,
(02:20):
it was it sounded like, you know, after he explained it,
it sounded like maybe he just simply misspoke and there's
no need to freak out, you know that being said,
Forty nine Ers Giants tonight, and it looks like it's
going to be headed up a little bit on Thursday.
No Saquon Barkley, No Andrew Thomas, the left tackle for
(02:43):
the Giants. The Giants are also going to be down.
I believe they're right guard its You guys can toss
this office. Oh it doesn't really matter, and they're just
down a guard and Andrew Thomas. Okay, I mean, you know,
you're facing an elite team in the San Francisco forty
nine Ers, an elite front in the Niners. They're gonna
be trotting out a defensive line. Evan Neil, according to
(03:04):
Pro Football Focus, ranked seventieth of seventy one tackles. Their
one guard mckethan. I'm not that familiar with him. He
played in week two. He graded out pretty well. It
was against Arizona. They have no pass rush Smitch who
had the rookie Michael Schmidt's adam? I think Minnesota. He
had a terrible snap that was a killer on that drive.
(03:26):
He grades out as the twenty fourth of thirty three centers.
The left guard, whoever this guy is, Mark Glowinski played
a little bit in Week two, and then Izunu is
going to fill in at left tackle. He filled in
for Andrew Thomas last game against you.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
I don't want to hear.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
Oh, he did well against Arizona, Like to stop, what
does that mean? Doesn't mean Jack squat. So one of
the ways I look at the matchups is you go
to Pro Football Focus, assuming you have an account or
you know you're biting off your friend's account, and you
can they they actually have the game, and you can
look at lineups. So you can look at, oh, let's
see who Bosa is gonna line up against. Let's see
who the Giants will put up against. One of the
(04:09):
best pass rushers. Oh, it's gonna be Evan Neil, the
second to worst right tackle in the league is gonna
face mister Bosa, who, by the way, if you care
about such grades, is the second edg rusher out of
one hundred and seven. And then in the middle you've
got Armstead and Hargrave, both who are Hardgrave is twelfth
and Armstead is twenty second. And again this is going
(04:29):
up against Pittsburgh's offensive line, and then the Rams, who
Rams are improved clearly, but like this defensive line is
gonna obliterate the Giants.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
Do you remember what the Cowboys did?
Speaker 4 (04:40):
Like?
Speaker 2 (04:40):
Why is that not gonna happen again? Like none of
these Giants receivers Hodskins slate and they don't scare you.
You know, I'm even hearing the oh well, the Giants
could all that great? The good vibes they had in
the second half against Arizona, what are you talking about?
Like just because they got hot and they were desperate,
and they said, Daniel Jones just go run around ramble
(05:00):
good luck?
Speaker 3 (05:01):
Yeah, try scrambling.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Against the forty nine ers linebackers, Warner Greenlaw good luck?
Who funo you gonna running around with that guy back there,
Dane Jones, to get decapitated. I just don't see how
they score. Maybe there's a miscue on special teams and
the Giants. I just don't see how the Giants get
to like thirteen points. I just don't see it. So
I'm on the Niners. You know ten, I got ten
(05:25):
and ten and a half.
Speaker 4 (05:26):
I don't.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
I just don't hate it. I do hate that they
got shafted last week at the Rams kick at the
end there by McVeigh, who, by the way, has tried
to explain it, and it's still not making sense two
days later. Maybe I'm missing something, maybe the Niners who
are sleepy. I saw a stat that the forty nine
Ers in their last seven home games are seven or
(05:48):
zero against the spread. Whatever that's worth, you know, a
trend alert. But it's just like Giants stayed out West.
That could be beneficial. It's just to me in the trenches,
a huge advantage to San Francisco. And I like the
Niners here. Sorry, I think they get it done fairly easily.
I don't expect this to be a fun game, and
(06:10):
for the bank roll, I would like it if it
was not very fun. And the Niners just choked him out,
and you know, halftime it was like twenty zero or something.
All Right, without further ado, let's get to our guest,
Fox Sports Radio's Bertie Fratto.
Speaker 1 (06:28):
You know a guy, Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
I know what sports dance wants.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
But for everything he doesn't, he knows the guy who does.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows the
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
All right, let's bring in a guest we've had on
the podcast before.
Speaker 3 (06:48):
You know him big. He's big time.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
I saw a big article in the Sun Times about
him from December. He's in Vegas making things happen, although
I don't like the Raiders. This weekend, we'll get into it.
Bertie Fratto joining us, Bernie, How you doing, my man?
Speaker 4 (07:01):
Hey, Jason, Good to be with you again. It must
be that time of year.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
We always do this at the beginning of football season,
and I just got to say one thing. It didn't
take long and Brandon Staley is already making history again,
you know, Jason. In the history of the NFL, there
have been thirty three occasions where a team in their
first two games, has scored more than fifty points and
(07:25):
ten turned the ball over once.
Speaker 4 (07:28):
The Chargers scored fifty eight points in the first two.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
Games, didn't turn the ball over once, and yet they
lost both games. That has never happened in the history
of the NFL until now.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
Brutal. I was not on them in the contest in
the circuit contest either week. I really wanted to take
them against the Titans, thank thank goodness. I may like
them this week. We'll get into that soon, Bernie. Let's
start with just macro big picture on the first two
weeks that are in the books. You give us the
divisional dogs every year. In week one, I think they
went five and three in week one. I'm just curious,
(07:59):
how did you do? Did you make out in the
first two weeks so far?
Speaker 1 (08:02):
I'm off to a pretty good start fortunately. Yeah, Divisional Dogs.
Week one, we're five and three. Three of the dogs
one out right last week. Teams who lost by double
digits Week one cover about sixty percent of the time.
In Week two had a couple nice sunders and I
had to hold my nose on one particular game this past week.
(08:22):
But I was glad that the Seattle Seahawks came through
for me, I got it at six before it went
down to four.
Speaker 4 (08:29):
But be that as to me, I'm still pretty high
in the lion.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
So Jason, yeah, that's interesting. No closing line value? What
the opposite way? And you still cash it?
Speaker 3 (08:37):
Is Bernie. There's so many like quote unquote rules.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
And trends, and all these guys are trying to make
their way with little kernels of information.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
None of that stuff's predictive.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
And you know, I think we talk about this with
a lot of guests, and I know you look into it,
but like here we are week three and you see
a lot of double digit favorites, and you know the
rule is don't touch a double digit favorites. At what
point do we This is not blackjack, right, This is
not like hey, you hit on the book says that's
out the window. I'm curious where you are heading into
(09:09):
this week. Does anything jump off the board at you?
Speaker 1 (09:12):
Well, this is the last week, Jason, Week three where
I believe there are bona fide viable trends that truly correlate.
And one of the trends that's been pretty strong over
the years is teams that start out oh and two,
and in the NFL, if you start oh and two,
you're covering week three about fifty eight percent of the time.
(09:32):
If you start out oh and two and you're not
only oh and two straight up, but you were zero
and two against the spread, you're covering about sixty three
percent of the time. The Cincinnati Bengals fall into that
category in some of the Houston Texans, which are actually
my best bet. And I'll get to both of those
in a minute.
Speaker 4 (09:50):
We'll get to that. We'll tease that for a minute.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
But what I was gonna say, though, I'm still kind
of high on Cincinnati.
Speaker 4 (09:56):
I know everybody is, you know, prisoner of the moment.
Speaker 1 (09:59):
They they've been owing to two of the last three years,
and even in twenty twenty one, they had to go
overtime in week two to not go oh and two.
Jason the send off line for that game against the
Rams two weeks ago with six and a half, you
can now get it minus two, and I think I
think you'll see the Bengals right the ship this week.
So again, that's another team I like, I know.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Soon Wait, but Bernie, let me ask, how does the
Burrow handicap How are you factoring that in do you
want to bet it now at two in the hopes
that Borough plays, or do you just trust Jake Browning
and the Cincinnati defense. It doesn't it doesn't give it
matter at all. You're Rocke Macincy.
Speaker 4 (10:38):
Okay, that's a very good question.
Speaker 1 (10:40):
If Burrow was not going to play, I think we'd
see that more reflected in the line. I'm certain Burrow
will play. I don't think that, you know, the Bengals
want to take a chance on going oh and three.
The structure that offense, look, they're rusty. He watched most
of the preseason from a golf cart, and interestingly enough, Jason,
as you well know, Sean McVay fielding a very young
(11:00):
team this year, so ironically his Rams played a lot
more snaps in the preseason than they did than most
teams did. So I think tough travel spot for the
Rams since he's got a little extra time to prepare
for this game. Bottom line is this. I think you
see Cincinnati right the ship. I love lou Anna Rumo's defense.
He'll pick Stafford off twice. Love my guy, Matt Stafford
(11:22):
right on Q fourth quarter last week two key picks
could have had four. I think Cincinnati's got the much
better squad, and you're gonna get him a real cheap
right now, you got a real bargain with him.
Speaker 4 (11:32):
I think they're right the ship.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
So one of the pushbacks would be so I missed
on the Rams in week one, for sure. I didn't
take Seattle in the contest. But what I missed was
mcveigh's familiarity with Pete Carroll. He knew them intimately, and
he beat the hell out of Carroll historically, and they
crushed him in Week two. He knows Shanahan. Shanahan's got
the better of him. Shanahan should have got the cover
(11:56):
that late field goal.
Speaker 3 (11:57):
But like, the.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
Preparation was different for teams that you know and facing
division and you've been facing them twice a year or
three times in the case of Sanfray. Now it's got
to be a Bengals team.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
I mean, Bernie, I.
Speaker 2 (12:08):
Don't know what prep is like for the Rams, but
I could guarantee you they weren't doing any almost any
Bengals prep here the last like three weeks, right, they
were all preparing for Seattle in Sanfray. So now it's
like on a short week, well not a short week,
but you got a week together to put together a
game plan. How does that impact the Bengals.
Speaker 1 (12:27):
Well, I think the Bengals are going to be extra motivated.
Not only are the Bengals zeroing to Jason, they lost
both games.
Speaker 4 (12:35):
To divisional opponents.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
And in the history of the NFL, it's only happened
seven times where a team starts so and two and
they lost both games to divisional opponents. In each of
those instances, all seven, none of those teams went on
to make the playoffs. But I think you're going to
see an extra motivated Cincinnati team. I'm glad you brought
up Seattle and the Rams Week one. That was another
(12:57):
one of those divisional dogs who covered Yes, right, when
you've got two divisional teams playing each other Week one,
Remember both teams are healthy. Depression hasn't said it yet.
You've had plenty of time to game plan and prepare.
To your point about how well that Sean McVay knows
Pete Carroll. And finally, it takes about three or four
(13:20):
weeks in the NFL for the Cream to sort of
separate from the pack.
Speaker 4 (13:24):
Seattle's a better team than the Rams.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
You didn't see that Week one you'll see it with
those two play again in a few weeks, so Seattle
will hit their stride. They started two against Detroit. The
Rams have probably already level off somewhat. You're gonna get
a max effort out of them. But clearly on paper,
this is an eight nine to nine to eight team
at best. For Seattle, I think is a ten win team.
So Week one common you know pattern that we've seen
(13:46):
over the years. Two divisional opponents, very evenly matched, and
you know, the better team hasn't had a chance to
separate yet because they haven't got their legs under him
at that point in the season.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
Gotcha, Let's go to the Houston game. You mentioned Houston
is I believe at Jacksonville. Jacksonville coming off a humbling
loss to the Chiefs. A lot of people I think
the Jags took money last week in this spot and everybody,
all the sharp money was wrong. I just like to
say that, because all the sharps think that they're so
sharp and great. Sharp money's wrong often, but usually you
(14:18):
know what, fifty percent of a little less than fifty
percent of the time, and they were way off on
the Jags. So now the Jags face a Houston team
Bernie that they crushed them last year thirty one to three,
but the prior nine meetings Houston had beaten them. They
had their number for whatever reason. I just saw the
Houston injury report. Holy hell, they are so beat up.
(14:39):
Sounds like four offensive linemen will be down. Top three
safeties out like Trevor Lawrence should bounce back strong here,
I like an idiot, bet the Jags at eight and
a half. I see it's at nine and a half
added toward ten, But you like the Texans. Are you
waiting on the ten or did you already grab grab
a number just thinking that Houston's acide.
Speaker 1 (14:57):
Haven't done anything yet. But I insist on getting the
ten if I have to buy the half point. Let
me digress for just a second. Jason, you bring up
a great point about the term sharp money in Vegas.
The sharp money is the respected money, the way to
be considered respected money. Books pay attention to the amounts
folks bet, but moreover, when they make the bet.
Speaker 4 (15:18):
What do I mean by that?
Speaker 1 (15:20):
The sharp money folks always managed to get the best
line value when they bet the game. For instance, they're
not going to chase the line last week again Seattle
open at six. The Sharps would have come in at six,
they wouldn't have chased it down to four and a half.
So sharp money becomes respected money when it is noted
that time and time again, the timing in which the
(15:42):
individual or the syndicates make the bet seems to be
the most opportune, when the line is at its most
right for the better, whether you're taking the dog or
the favorite. Now, let me tell you why I like
Houston this week. Yes they're zer and two, and yes
they didn't cover either game. History tells us zero to
two teams who start going too that don't cover this
pride either week cover the spread sixty three percent week three.
(16:06):
That's built into the line. Here, you're getting a nice
heavy line, double digit line. You know CJ's dropped three
for three hundred and eighty four yards last week. I
thought he looked pretty good. Nico Collins and Robert Woods
establishing themselves as legitimate weapons. Houston blocks and tackles well,
and they're pretty physical under Dimico Ryans. Here's the problem.
(16:26):
Something's wrong with the Jaguars offense. They've only scored forty
points in two games. That's twelve less than the Colts
right now, if you watch the way this offense is yeah,
I mean, if you watch the way this offense is functioning,
you know, they couldn't score in a women's prison with
a fifth full of fifties.
Speaker 4 (16:42):
They're struggling.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
Houston contest, every player they blocked, they tackle. I'm really
impressed physically with how they handle their business against Baltimore.
Baltimore got the late front door cover. The Jags ranked
thirtieth and EPA playoffensively, and they're thirty first in the
pass rush.
Speaker 4 (16:59):
By the way, Houston ranks tenth and pass rush. Add
it all up.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
I think it's going to be a grind out affair
for the Jaguars, and I like Houston to hang that number.
Speaker 4 (17:07):
Ten is a nice good numbers.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
Yeah, no, it's a great point about ten.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
I am curious though that Colts game.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
So I watched a little bit Anthony Richardson. I was
on the Colts for peanuts, but I saw Anthony Richardson
go down.
Speaker 3 (17:20):
I'm like, damn it, I'm cooked.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
Should I buy back on the Texans? And then Gardner
Minshew comes in. He runs Stichens offense. I mean, Bernie,
they're winning thirty one ten in the fourth quarter before
some garbage time action from Stroud made it look respectable.
I don't know, man, are the Texans the worst team
in the league.
Speaker 4 (17:39):
I wouldn't say that.
Speaker 1 (17:41):
I still think probably Arizona, although Arizona gives an effort
to Buddy and they're catching a nice points to get
at home against Dallas this week, and that's one of
those all and two situations. You know, Week three is
still when you look at the technical factors, meaning all
in two teams and all the up against it, you're
gonna You're gonna a max effort. There's thet's say, one, two, three, four,
(18:03):
five six. There are eight own two teams that are
in action this week. By the way, there are only
two oh and two teams that face each other, Minnesota
and the Chargers. And when that ever happens, you take
the dog and that covers sixty four percent of the time.
Speaker 4 (18:18):
Right now in the games and pick them. But there's
no way I can back Randon stately. There's just no way.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
He's supposed to be defensive specialists, and ironically their defense
stinks can't hold the lead right so that I'm gonna
pass on that game, and I'm also gonna pass on
the Bears. They're ower and two, getting thirteen against Kansas City.
I cannot, will not, never have will back justin fields. Uh,
there are serious issues there. He's five and twenty two
(18:43):
as a starter. I don't know why people are treating
this guy with k gloves. I said it a year ago, Jason,
You've been around the game a long time. Football quarterback
is a position you play with your eyes. You receive
the ball, you make mental snapshots, you make a pre
posting that reachs. You try to match up the offensive
scheme you're running versus the defensive set you're opposing. You
try to find openings. He can't do it. He's the
(19:05):
game is too fast for him. He's he observes what
he's seeing, and he's slow to make a decision. He's
slow to react, and he's got a very slow release,
and he's not accurate facts.
Speaker 4 (19:16):
You know.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
Other than that, he's brilliant. That's why he is five
and twenty two. His default mechanism is to run. He's
not at Ohio State anymore. At Ohio State he was
an outstanding quarterback because college football rewards that eleventh athlete.
You're if you're a dual threat quarterback, a college version
of a dual threat quarterback. Your default mechanism is to
run first because defenses aren't prepared for it. Not in
(19:37):
a National Football League, They'll kill you. He's gonna get hurt.
Anthony Richardson's already banged up. If Justin Field sinks, he's
going to play improvisational freelancer this week against Kansas City.
It's about to get even uglier than it already has.
I cannot back that team.
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(21:16):
Eligibility and deposit restrictions apply. My big issue with Fields
is I was on them in the contest against Tampa.
I was like, listen, Tampa's not that good. What's his debaker?
Mayfield will make mistakes. He has his through an entire career,
and you know what, this is a good run game
for Fields and lo and behold Fields has I think
three rushes for four yards or two rushes for some
(21:37):
minuscule number.
Speaker 3 (21:38):
I'm like, what are you doing, Bernie. He's sitting in
the pocket getting.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
Sacked left and right there. Goaloffensive line is already decimated
by injuries. I guess the question would be, why isn't
he running? I know, maybe long term you want to
win from the pocket, but you need to get a
win here. You gotta go ninety ninety five yards in
the fourth quarter to tie it up. I'm like, hey,
Shador Sanders could do it in Colorado, Justin Fields could
get it done in Tampa.
Speaker 3 (22:00):
To play the prevent Fields.
Speaker 2 (22:02):
Throws a frigging pick six on like the on an
awful call that he actually kind of blamed on the
on the coordinator, you know, and Tampa even said, dude,
we saw this play like five minutes before or a
quarter before, we knew it.
Speaker 3 (22:14):
Was coming, and it's like, what's happening in Chicago.
Speaker 1 (22:16):
Bernie Chudor Sanders is actually a better quarterback than Justin Fields.
He's got better footwork, better recognition, his decision making. Oh,
I'm telling you this kid, he's a first round draft choice.
Let's go back to Field.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
That's a major hot take. Shoe a hold on Bernie Shadoor.
Sanders is is better. We're going to be better than Fields.
Speaker 4 (22:35):
I mean Field's numbers, but he's better. He's better now, Jason.
Speaker 1 (22:40):
If you if people ascertain what is expected of a
quarterback on the NFL level, Chudoor Sanders is more NFL ready.
Speaker 4 (22:47):
He knows what he's looking at.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
He's got an ability to not only make the right
decision quickly and get the damn ball out of his hands.
Speaker 4 (22:55):
Fields can't get the ball out of his hands. He can't.
Speaker 1 (22:58):
Shador does and gets it to the right guy. It's incredible.
Hold that thought. We get to get to that laker.
So here's what's happening in Chicago. Justin Fields is a
big miss and no one wants to admit it. He's
five and twenty two as a starter. He ran for
a thousand yards last year and they won three games.
So if running was so important, why doesn't it lead
to winning games. There's another thing that's bothersome. Look at
the offense they're running Week one against Tampa Bay. They
(23:21):
allowed him four attempts of more than ten yards. They're
not even allowing him to do it and do anything
because they're afraid he's gonna turn the ball over. This
is an unmitigated disaster. And what he said today is
very bothersome. Justin Fields is an improvisational freelancer.
Speaker 4 (23:36):
Look, there's been.
Speaker 1 (23:37):
A lot of athletic quarterbacks come out of college over
the years. Cam Newton threw for four hundred yards this
first game. He could actually operate from the pocket. So
could Kyler Murray. Soa can Lamar Jackson. Do you understand
that you can keep a play alive with your feet?
But defensive coordinators are too smart. If you make yourself
one dimensional and they know you can't pass, you're in trouble.
That's what's happening to Justin Fields. And I'll even taking
(23:59):
a step further, Jason. When Justin Field is making his
pre snap red walking toward the line of scrimmage, he's
got to notice if the defense is in a zone
or manda man because even when he runs, he's a freelancer.
If a quarterback sees his own defense, your job is
to run latterly so your receivers can cider just their
routes and get open. If the defense is man to man,
(24:20):
most likely the dbs have their back to the quarterback,
which means you could run vertically. The closest defender to
you is thirty yards away, your strong safety. He's not
even recognizing that. It looks like it looks like a
Monty Python cartoon. He just run around all over the place.
It's not working, Jason, you can see that it's not working.
He drops back. You know you saw dan Orlofski's diagram.
(24:41):
It was brilliant and two wide open receivers. He caught
like he was ready to throw, and I don't know
what happened. He was afraid to let go of the ball.
He wasn't sure trusting his red or he's lost his confidence.
It takes a lot to be a major league quarterback.
It's a position you play with your eyes. By the way,
what I've seen that of Bryce Young.
Speaker 4 (24:58):
Be patient.
Speaker 1 (24:59):
He's going to be fine. He's got command of the position.
Now back to Shudor Sanders. It's clearly he's been coached
by Brady and Dion. You know, spent what sixteen years
in the NFL, so he knows what he's looking at.
This is a young man who understands how to operate
from the pocket and let the offensive schemes and the
row trees flow from there and make decisions with your
(25:20):
eyes and then execute. You can't just drop back and
take off and run because it's convenient you don't know
what to do.
Speaker 4 (25:27):
Not the National Football League.
Speaker 2 (25:28):
Boy crushing Justin fields man. That was harsh. All right,
let's quickly pivot to the Thursday game, Giants at Niners.
I just saw the Giants injury report before we came
on to record here Wednesday afternoon. Saikwan's out left tackle
Andrew Thomas is out. One of their starting guards is out.
One of their head rushers, o Jalari is out.
Speaker 3 (25:50):
Bernie, I know you.
Speaker 2 (25:51):
The card is supposed to say, don't take double digit
don't take double digit favorites.
Speaker 3 (25:56):
I'm sorry.
Speaker 2 (25:56):
I have a couple bets on the Niners already at
ten and a half and at ten, and I can't
help myself. I can't make a case for the Giants here.
The Niners, I believe, are one of the best three
teams in the NFL, and I think they should be
able to handle New York here. Bottle up the Saquon
less Giants. Remember Daniel Jones without Saquon Barkley was hot garbage.
(26:17):
Only last year when Saquon was healthy did it work.
Matt Brida, he ain't the guy.
Speaker 3 (26:21):
Bernie. I gotta go Niners here.
Speaker 4 (26:24):
Jason, I really can't disagree with anything you've said.
Speaker 1 (26:27):
Just as a rule of ThM, I don't want to
ever lay double digit numbers in the history of the NFL,
going back to the the merger. If you just blindly
took double digit dogs, you'd be at fifty four percent.
Speaker 4 (26:38):
But you really can't make a case for New York
right here. Tough travel spot.
Speaker 1 (26:41):
They stayed on the left coast, got to go to
San Francisco back to back road games. You mentioned they're
depleted in injuries. The forty nine ers are the most
complete team on both sides of the ball. And by
the way, brock Purdy, I don't know why you would
have dollars at this point. Justin fields take notes. Brock
Purdy plays the position the way it's supposed to be played.
Speaker 3 (27:00):
I think he's got Kyle Shanahan.
Speaker 1 (27:02):
You know, well, yeah, fair, but you've still got to
execute the system. Rielance couldn't do it either. So the
bottom line.
Speaker 3 (27:10):
Is that's fair, that's right.
Speaker 1 (27:12):
I would just I would just say this. I won't
be on the game, but the Niners are the only
side I can look to.
Speaker 4 (27:18):
Would not surprise me.
Speaker 1 (27:19):
If you look up in the fourth quarter, it's thirty
one to seven and you got a rocking tier game
on your hands.
Speaker 4 (27:24):
I can't make a case for New York. Everything you
said is it is spot on.
Speaker 2 (27:29):
Yeah, A next game I want to attack. I bet
this early Buffalo Washington. I thought there's no way this
game stays at six and a half. I'll let me
grab a chunk of the Bills. My biggest bet of
the year lot so far is Bills over Raiders, which
is a lot last. I just think like Buffalo got
their clunker out. When they face an elite defense, it's tough.
Washington is not any elite defense. Russell Wilson embarrassed them
(27:52):
for a half. I don't see why Josh Allen and
company is aren't going to be able to move the ball.
Speaker 4 (27:56):
It will.
Speaker 2 (27:57):
The only question here is are they be able to
get pressure on Josh Allen. We know the Raiders couldn't,
but Ken Washington win at the line of scrimmage and
maybe force Allandard some mistakes.
Speaker 3 (28:07):
I just I don't know.
Speaker 2 (28:08):
I think the Bills are almost undervalued, Bernie because of
that primetime clunker. Well, they did lead thirteen three, but
primetime wasted game against the Jets and the opener.
Speaker 4 (28:18):
Well, and we all know why. There were four turnovers.
Speaker 1 (28:21):
And whenever a team, yeah in the National Football League,
loses the turn over a battle by three or more,
you lose that game thaninety four percent of the time. Okay,
Buffalo was fine then except for turnovers. I'm not a
daughter on Buffalo. I think they're gonna be very good.
They had the odd ball year last year, they lost
von Miller, they had to go to Detroit back to
back games in four days because of the snowstorm. In thanksgaming,
(28:43):
he had the unfortunate situation with Deamar Hamlin. Look, Josh
Allen is who he is. Eighty four turnovers and seventy
eight games, but he's also a dynamic playmaker and they
know it, and they got plenty of weapons. This is
a mismatch. And I also think they're going to be
chasing Sam hartmullell all over the field or not Sam Hartman,
Sam Houston, Well, yeah, probably Sam Hartman while we're at
(29:04):
But the bottom line is, yeah, I think you mentioned
Washington's front seven and it's good. Buffalo's front seven is
pretty good too, And I think if they have any
success on the ground, you're looking at a double. Did
you win for the Bills? I think you got a
good play there.
Speaker 2 (29:20):
And the other thing with Washington, everybody's all excited. Hey,
they beat Denver on the road.
Speaker 3 (29:24):
Just hold up.
Speaker 2 (29:25):
They look like complete dog shit against Arizona and the
opener they didn't cover. For me, I had them, they
didn't cover, and Howell looked awful.
Speaker 3 (29:34):
And then on the road.
Speaker 2 (29:35):
They start out down twenty one to three before Russell
Wilson vomits up a couple turnovers and makes it interesting.
I just I think people a lot of overreactions non
divisional matchup.
Speaker 3 (29:45):
You know, I don't love this one for Washington. How
about this? Why don't you pick a game you go after.
Speaker 4 (29:50):
Real quick, real quick? Jason?
Speaker 1 (29:52):
Well, the key takeaway for me is Washington surrendered thirty
three points. Denver just scores about thirty three points a
month last year after nine weeks jasons. You know, last year,
had Denver just averaged eighteen points per game in regulation,
they would have been eight and one after nine games.
So and then they come out Week one against the
(30:13):
stinky Raiders and they only score what sixty points? For
the fact they put up thirty three against that Washington defense,
Buffalo is gonna get their points, and yeah, Washington can't
get in a shootout with Buffalo.
Speaker 4 (30:25):
It's a big step up in class.
Speaker 3 (30:28):
I'll let you pick the next game. There's some stuff
out there.
Speaker 2 (30:30):
Bryce Young ankle injury, he missed practice. I don't know
if that appeals to you.
Speaker 3 (30:35):
Is there any have you hit any of.
Speaker 2 (30:37):
The other these other games before we get to obviously
Jets and Patriots, which I think I'm gonna have to
stay away from betting this week, But I don't know.
Speaker 3 (30:43):
I'm just curious as to your thoughts.
Speaker 1 (30:45):
Well, the one game that jumped at me, but I
don't know if you can chase it now. I got
it at fifty one? Is the total in the Minnesota
Oh yeah, Charger's game. The Chargers six most in points
in the Vikings offense, I think it's been pretty good now.
The either defense has been great. You got perfect conditions
and doors. That game honestly feels like a thirty four
to thirty one game to me. I think it roars
over the total problem now is it's up to fifty four.
(31:08):
But I'm a big fan, honestly of the O and
two teams that are underdogs this week. Don't go to
sleep on Denver catching six and a half against Miami.
I wouldn't go to sleep on New England. They're at
the Jets and they're laying two points. But I actually
like who living in the spot. I've already told you
about Houston. You mentioned Carolina. Carolina plus five and a half.
(31:31):
Carolina went up there last year and pushed Seattle around
the field. Now they're getting five and a half. Maybe
you buy it to six and again. Arizona plus twelve
at home is appealing to me. So I'm focusing primarily
on the O and two teams that are dogs, with
the exception of the Bears, of course, and I do
like the over in the Minnesota Chargers game.
Speaker 3 (31:51):
Hold on, I gotta go back to something.
Speaker 2 (31:53):
So you a lot of these oh and two teams
that are dogs Patriots OHO and two oh and two
against the spread and their favorite Do you have anything
on favorites just by being too h and to two against.
Speaker 4 (32:04):
The Well, that's extremely rare. But the Lion's telling you
everything you need to know.
Speaker 1 (32:07):
The key is when you go back twenty two seasons,
the two thousand teams that are zero and two heading
into Week three, they're covering fifty eight percent of the time.
Speaker 4 (32:16):
And I don't think the Pats covered ether game, did they? Jason?
So that sixty.
Speaker 1 (32:22):
The Jets offenses. Look, Bill Belichick is gonna wreak havoc
on on Zach Wilson. And I think New England is
going to be able to run the ball, and they're
showing enough in flashes. They got to the red zone
repeatedly against Miami, a good team, So I think you're
looking at a grind out seventeen to thirteen game here.
I think New England wins. But again this only two
things served as well. Just like the the Divisional Dogs
(32:46):
Week one, you get desperate teams that are owing too
and they typically play a little but their head and
it's it's baked into the line.
Speaker 2 (32:53):
The Denver Miami thing is interesting. So a lot of
the perception here is Miami's favored by six and a half.
The big money won't let it hit seven and they'll
buy back. But I'm seeing, as of right now, bet Chris,
one of these offshore books is at minus seven minus
one oh two, so not the usual minus one ten.
(33:14):
It's interesting because Denver I saw statle. They're number one
in points per possession like Russ and Sean Payton is
working in the opener. They miss a field goal, they
missed an extra point, they lose a game in the
second one, they're up twenty one three, like some fluky
stuff has happened. I get I did bet, you know,
Miami at six and a half. I kind of regret it.
I'm not gonna do it in the contest. I don't think,
(33:36):
but I don't know. Like you know, all I heard
Sean Payton came into the studio last year almost every week,
and all he intimated was I want Vic Fangio.
Speaker 3 (33:45):
I want him as my DC.
Speaker 2 (33:46):
I want to get vict Like it was clear wherever
he went he wanted Fanngio. Now he has to face him,
and I just wonder if he wanted him because he's
such a defensive goods defensive coach, he's got a rich history,
and now that he's got to face.
Speaker 3 (33:59):
Him, I wonder, like, is Peyton a little nervous?
Speaker 2 (34:03):
Listen, you know they're gonna bring the house coming after
Russell Wilson, given he looks a lot slower. I don't
know do you break stuff down like that or do
you Is there no value because you know that's all
baked into the number.
Speaker 4 (34:17):
Jason, I wouldn't say there's no value. It's part of
the conversation.
Speaker 1 (34:21):
It's like Week one when Philadelphia played New England and
people were talking about how Matt Patricius from Aire with
New England and how do you quantify that. New England
played absolutely well enough to cover that game. They had
the two awful turnovers early. I love Vic Fangio too.
He was the architect of those forty nine ers defenses.
When they went to the Super Bowl. Went to Denver,
(34:43):
I thought did a serviceable job as the head coach there.
Now he's in Miami. The key to the game between
Miami and Denver. I know it's cliche, but whoever wants
a turnover battle is going to win that game. Russell
Wilson's been in enough high pressure games and I think
he's showing flash. Sean Payton's just about got him back
to reasonable facts, simile.
Speaker 4 (35:04):
But Denver has no margin of error.
Speaker 1 (35:06):
They're gonna have to finish their drives we're gonna have
to you know, look, third downs, the money down. Russell
Wilson's got to move the chains on third down. They
don't pay it a punt on third down. You've got
to payoff drives in the red zone. If if Denver
can do that, do not be surprised. If that's a
nail bider game going to the end. I think you're
gonna get max effort out of Denver. Miami starts out
to you a key divisional win, you can't bring it
(35:27):
every week. I mean, it's a situation. Do you know
what human beings here? Denver's gonna be the more motivated team.
And again you've got an O two team for some
two OHO team. The over history sixty two percent of
the time Denver tells us. That tells us Denver is
gonna hang around here.
Speaker 2 (35:43):
All right, we can wrap up with this one, Bertie
real quick. Pittsburgh Steelers going to Vegas. I'm assuming. I
don't know if it's a full SOFI situation where the
road team is gonna have a lot of fans, but
my guess is Pittsburgh's gonna travel.
Speaker 1 (35:54):
Well.
Speaker 2 (35:55):
They had a tough game Monday night. I haven't seen
any status, Bertie, this is line that surprises me more
than any other line. This week, the Raiders are favored
by two and a half over Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (36:07):
TJ.
Speaker 2 (36:07):
Watt looks healthy to me. Kenny Pickett looks healthy, Bernie.
This is all about everybody said, Oh, Pittsburgh looked awful.
They couldn't move the ball against the Browns.
Speaker 1 (36:15):
Bertie.
Speaker 2 (36:15):
I just want to remind people the Steelers face arguably
the best defense in the NFC in Week one, the
forty nine Ers, and then they faced the best defense
maybe in the AFC in Week two, the Browns, who
look incredible defensively. And yeah, of course the Steels are
gonna look like dogshit. What's gonna happen now when they
have to face the Raiders defense, which was just torched
by Josh Allen and his historically not good I don't know, man,
(36:38):
I think this has to be a big wager on Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (36:40):
No, what am I missing?
Speaker 1 (36:43):
I love the Pittsburgh side here, Jason, Mike Tomlin dressed
up as a dog has typically been money over the years,
and you are right. Their first two games Pittsburgh catch
kept much faster company. Pittsburgh can stop the run, it's
going to be a real long day for the Raiders,
long night for the Raiders. Josh Jacobs ran for minus
(37:03):
two yards against Buffalo and everything flowed from there.
Speaker 4 (37:06):
The Raiders are not a good team. They're not well coached.
Speaker 1 (37:08):
I'm not a big Josh McDaniels guy at all, you know,
I'm a big fan of in the NFL, how deceiving
looks can be one week and how a team can
look completely different the following week. Right, Seattle gets pushed
around by the Rams at home Week one, they go
to Detroit. Troit's got the third best offensive line in
the league, They've got a much upgraded defensive, powerful offense.
(37:31):
Seattle ten point lead, they hang on it ghost overtime
and they get her done.
Speaker 4 (37:35):
Completely different team.
Speaker 1 (37:36):
I think you're going to see a completely different Pittsburgh team.
And oh, by the way, you know, don't adjust your dial,
and you're gonna see black and gold instead of black and.
Speaker 4 (37:44):
Silver in the in the in the Allegiant Stadium.
Speaker 1 (37:47):
It'll be sixty seventy percent Pittsburgh fans, no doubt about it.
Speaker 2 (37:50):
I Perttie, I just I don't get why they would
hang this line. Is it because a short week for Pittsburgh.
Maybe there's listen, I know they can't stop the run,
and Chubb looked at before the injury, and then Ford
broke off a seventy yarder. I get it, you know,
the mister, the big guy in the middle again. I
just don't know what I'm missing. Why at the Raiders.
Speaker 1 (38:08):
Are favor Okay, this is a great question, and I
thought I always enjoyed kidd seeing with you. The one
thing I think that's a misnomer for all folks who
are fans of are betting is that when Vegas posts
the line, it's never a predictor. Vegas is not in
the fortune telling business and they're not in the predication.
They're merely putting a mathematical lineup designed to create equal
(38:30):
action on both sides so the book can maximize profit
and minimize loss.
Speaker 4 (38:34):
It all comes to power ratings, the power ratings. The
first two weeks for Pittsburgh have been terrible.
Speaker 1 (38:40):
They've not been good offensively, They're not been good defensively.
The Raiders had a deceivingly good game Week one at
Denver and looked pretty good. So when you look at
you know, yards per play, yards are lot per play
third down conversion, total yards, points, et cetera. Right now,
Pittsburgh mathematically off to a rough start. So you post
(39:01):
that line and let the markets signed from there, and
I think, right.
Speaker 4 (39:05):
Now all the values on Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1 (39:07):
But again, the two and a half is not a
predictive that the Raiders are going to win by three.
It's merely a market line designed mathematically to create equal
action on both sides.
Speaker 4 (39:15):
Honestly, that's all it really is.
Speaker 2 (39:17):
I think we'll see some game day money coming on
Pittsburgh and Hamlin the underdog. All right, Bernie Prouto, Fox
Sports Radio, great stuff as always, Bernie, a good thirty
minutes of NFL gambling talk.
Speaker 3 (39:27):
Be safe, and I'm sure I'll see you as soon, buddy.
Speaker 4 (39:29):
Best to you, Jason, Thanks for having me.
Host
Jason McIntyre
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