September 14, 2023 • 36 mins
On today’s episode, Jason kicks this off by previewing tonight’s Thursday Night Football showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Minnesota Vikings. Later, New York Post sports betting analyst Erich Richter swings by to discuss NFL week 2 from a gambling perspective. Richter gives his picks for Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots and much more!
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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and deposit restrictions apply the volume. This is Straight Fire
(01:37):
with Jason McIntyre. What is up? Straight Fire? Fam? It's
me Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire for Thursday, September fourteenth. It's
nearly that time, Folks. Week two almost upon us as
a special guest. We decided, you know, we like gambling
in these these waters. We decided to bring on Eric Richter,
(01:57):
New York Post. He was on last year. He's a
Giants fan. We's let that slide. It's okay, It's okay.
Giants fans are allowed on the podcast, even though I'm
a Jets fan and don't like the Giants at all.
Although as a hint, I do like the Giants. This week,
I've already bet them. We'll talk about that shortly, so
we'll bring on Eric to talk about it. We'll briefly
touch on Vikings Eagles, although I have to listen. You know,
(02:20):
I felt good about money line Lions for last Thursday.
That was a hit. I hit Cowboys Giants under and
I had Jets Jets in the under that hit. So
a little primetime run to start the season. Gotta be honest, guys,
don't know what's going on with this game. I don't
know why money's coming in on the Vikings to take
(02:42):
it from seven and a half to six and a half. Obviously,
clearly some of it has to do with the injuries
to the Eagles. They have just been decimated this week.
At linebacker. You've got na Kobe Dean, the kid from
Georgia on IR so now you're starting someone named Christian Ellis.
Do not know his work. It looks like he's undrafted,
but in the league for a minute. Did not grade
(03:02):
out well last week against the Patriots. So that could
mean a good game for Alex Madison, nice running back
for the Vikings who also catches passes. And then in
the second Aary no Bradbury, no Reed blanket Ship. That's
two starters on the defense. And you know, Darius slay
Good not an amazing cornerback. I know he's had some
good moments, but I'm just telling you that's not ideal.
(03:25):
Going up against Justin Jefferson. And if you saw last week,
Jordan Addison is emerging, emerging enough that I grabbed him
in fantasy. So there's a world where Kirk Cousin has
some success here, right, except for the fact that he's
down his center, and that's not great going up against
Jalen Carter. So Pro Football Focus if you guys don't subscribe.
Jalen Carter had a really, really good game in his
(03:46):
NFL debut against the Patriots. One hundred and twenty seven
defensive lineman got grades. He grabbed it, graded out as
number two in the league. He only played forty snaps,
but he was super effective and disruptive and wreaking havoc
on the Patriots. Now why did he do that? Partially
because their offensive line was a mass unit. Well, Vikings
(04:08):
are down their starting center, derisaw the left guard miss practice.
He's questionable. He was a minor practice on Wednesday. Misspractice Tuesday,
and it's like, are you rushing back your left tackle?
He goes down for the season, You're really screwed. So
you know, I guess what I'm doing is I'm pushing
back a little bit against the over I do think, yes,
(04:31):
there could be points. Brian Floor, as we know, he
likes the blitz. He consistently brought pressure against Mayfield, and
you know, Mayfield beat it because you can't bring pressure
with this Minnesota Vikings defense. That being said, I do
wonder if Flores changes it up just a little bit
and says, you know what, let's avoid the blitz. Let's
(04:52):
play it safe. Jalen Hurst did not look super comfortable
last week, and I could see the Vikings hanging around
this fea. He feels to me like a twenty seven
twenty twenty twenty seven to twenty one in that range,
which is right around the six. And I'm sorry, I've
got to lean to the to the Eagles here. I
(05:12):
just don't trust. I know it's a cheesy handicap, but
I don't trust Kirk Cousins in a primetime spot. Again,
when at the high leverage moments against the Bucks in
the red zone, interception fumble leads directly to Tampa points.
Like sure, in between the thirties, he's awesome, But what
happens when it gets down to crunch time and he's
under pressure because Eagles defensive line is dominating. Now, if
(05:34):
you remember last year on Monday Night Football, I think
both teams run defeated, and the Eagles just smacked the
sh I mean it was a beatdown. It was just brutal.
But this Eagle's defense doesn't look as good as last
year and the offense did not look crisp. But again,
I don't think the world of Minnesota this year, and
I think there's a legit chance they start the season
(05:55):
zero and two and you start to hear rumblings about, well,
this is it for Kirk Cousins. And at what point.
I'm not saying they're gonna openly tank justin Jefferson's not
gonna be happy with that, But like, when do you
start to see them and be like, Okay, well, you know,
we don't have much here, let's assess our talent and
let's think about next season. Like they're just they're not
that good. I know the division is not great, but
if the Packers win to go to two and zo
(06:16):
Vikings lose in the zero to two and it's like, whoa,
we got some problems here. I don't like this Vikings team.
I don't like the schedule, particularly after this. You know,
you got obviously get rest after the Eagles, but you're
then hosting the Chargers and Justin Herbert and you know,
depending on what you think of the Chargers, I think highly.
(06:37):
You stare at Owen three in the face. Now they're
gonna be Carolina after that, but then it's Chiefs and
then it's Bears Niners. Like this is a brutal start.
That loss really hurt to Tampa, set them back, and
now I believe they lose to the Eagles. So I mean,
there's no value in putting Eagles money line. Right, Let's
see what that is here in the they have this
app and it looks like Eagles money line is minus
(07:02):
two someone in the neighborhood of minus two sixty minus
two seventy. I'm not betting two hundred and seventy bucks
to one hundred on the chance that the Eagles screw
it up and lose. I just don't think that's a
big win. So if I had to bet, I would
take the Eagles at six. I think there's a little
bit of value, a little overreaction to them not looking
great again. This is a pizza money bet, right. I'm
(07:24):
not going a whole hog here. That's not a big
play like Falcons last week, and if you missed the
podcast earlier in the week, you'll have to go back
and listen. Already several bets I like some favorites. This
week is bounce back week, overreaction week, whatever you want
to call it. Right, without further ado, let's get to
today's guest, Eric Richter of the New York Post. You
(07:45):
know how guy Jason likes to think he knows everything
when it comes to sports. I know what sports dance wants,
but for.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
Everything he doesn't, he knows a guy who does. Let's
just say I know.
Speaker 1 (07:57):
A guy who knows the guy who knows. Another big,
big day here on the podcast. We are now live
on AMP and we have a guest, Eric Richter from
the New York Post to talk NFL Week two. I
should preface this by saying he's been on the podcast before.
He is a big UFC guy, but he is now
(08:18):
writing a column on NFL picks for the New York Post. Eric,
I'm very curious how do a week one go for you?
Speaker 3 (08:25):
Let's see Giants plus three and a half, So you know, basically,
Giants plus three and a half is probably the worst
pick you could have of the entire week. You know
it's brutal, brutal, but you know we're gonna rebound here
in week two. I'm not worried about it.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
I'm sure the forgiving New York audience was so kind
and respectful to that miss and listen, I nearly took
the Giants. We saw divisional home dogs had been on
a ridiculous tear for something like fifteen twenty years in
week one, and they did go I think five and three,
but the Giants were one of the three they did
not cover. The Colts had another bad beat on the
divisional home dog front. But week two is a different animal. Eric,
(09:02):
I kind of attack it this way. What is everybody
overreacting to in week one? Where I can find some
value in week two? And we can either go through
the games or go back and forth. But I thought
i'd start with you. Is there anything that totally jumps
out at you? And I'm gonna go ahead and guess
the New York Giants might be on your bingo card again.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
Giants are definitely gonna be on my bingo card.
Speaker 3 (09:21):
I think that what we're really overreacting to more than anything,
is the known commodities here. There's a lot of teams
out here that we know are good. Joe Burrow we
know is good. The Chiefs, we know they're good. So
I think that when we look at, you know, the
betting card here for week two and going forward, it's
not just about this week. I'm really looking at going forward,
the elite quarterback play and really like going forward, looking
(09:45):
at trying to attack them in spots where it makes sense,
you know, even like this week you have the Bengals
opened up at two and a half against the Ravens,
who are really banged up, lost a lot of defensive players.
That whole defense really is already injured after one week,
you know. So when I look at it, I see
the Bengals, I see the Chiefs. You know, I feel
like the lines are kind of a little bit low there,
(10:06):
you know. So from from that perspective, I think, don't
overreact to poor performance early. We saw, you know, even
last year Joe Burrow threw foreignerceptions against the Steelers in
Week one last year. So I wouldn't over I wouldn't
overreact to anything like that.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
I'm kind of with you. And the gambling stuff is
weird because here we are recording this Wednesday and I'm
sure if we say Bengals we like them, everybody's gonna
be like, oh well, okay, let me jump on the Bengals.
And then you go look and the line is down
to three and a half when it was two and
a half Monday. And you know I talked about on
the pod, it's like you could tell right out of
the gate Ravens are really beat up. As you said too,
it sounds like two starting offensive linemen may not go.
(10:43):
Linderbaum in the center and then Big Ronnie they're the tackle,
so they're gonna be in some trouble. And the Bengals
obviously are not as bad as they're open or indicated.
I know you before we started recording, you recorded or
you referenced DVOA and the Cincinnati Bengals are thirty one
in D and we know that's just not accurate, right.
It was just a bad game, bad weather Burrow. And
(11:05):
I saw this note by Peter King. Burrow last year
was like averaging sixteen miles an hour, you know, being
elusive in the pocket. And I guess in the season
opener it was the fourth slowest game he's ever had.
Maybe the calf is something more than just a minor issue.
They did shut him down early. You think the Bengals
(11:26):
offense just opens a can on Baltimore because their defense
did not look great. I saw the pressure rates, Eric, like,
they're not gonna be able to get to the quarterback.
Speaker 3 (11:33):
No, they're not gonna able to get to the quarterback.
You know, I mean the Bengals. You know their offensive
line is a little shaky too. We know that if
you were watching the Bengals game. Also, he pointed to
his ankle a couple of times he was walking off,
so you know that might be a problem. I like
Joe Mixon though here the Ravens rush defense not wasn't
The Ravens rush defense isn't exactly, you know, one of
(11:54):
the best in the league. And for me, like I'm
looking at trying to a target something where you have
a running back that is one of the better ones
in the league. Chase Brown barely got any touches last week.
You know, I feel like Joe Mixon, you know, for
player props purposes, is someone that I would like to target,
especially for this game against the Ravens.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
And let me just ask you quickly, what did you
make of the Ravens. They did not play Lamar in
the preseason. They've got a great wide receiver room, but
it's very new and they looked a little clunky offensively.
I thought they were going to drop forty on the Texans,
and they struggled to get to twenty five. Lamar pick
I think he had two fumbles, lost one. They lose
Dobbins to injury. The running back rooms always decimated. Zay
(12:38):
Flowers look good, no Mark Andrews. It just felt like
an uneven performance from Baltimore. A lot of expectations for
the new OC and Lamar this year.
Speaker 3 (12:46):
Yeah, new offensive coordinator, a new totally new offense or
trying to spread them out. They're trying to throw it more.
You know, I didn't like I didn't like the usage
of Isaiah Likely. To be honest with you, I think
that he's a good tight end. Yeah, I'm concerned about that.
You know, Za Flowers, it was kind of a lot
of underneath throws, and he's definitely electric with the ball
in his hand. But I didn't like the way that
they were getting him used. How about some slant routes
(13:07):
instead of some underneath uh, some underneath dump offs.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
That's what it felt like. It was to me with
the Zay Flowers thing.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
Odell had that one catch that was pretty good for
like twenty seven yards I believe in the third quarter.
But you know, I off the passing offense. Little concern
there for sure. You know, Bengals minus three and a half,
it's still pretty tempting there that that hook there, and
you know books are trying to get you in on
that hook so that you know, divisional game, there's no
strongle in there on a bed. If it got back
(13:34):
down to three, I'd be I'd be intrigued out of
Bengals minus three. But yeah, that's that's kind of where
I'm at right now.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
Let's go to the Giants there in Arizona. Arizona one
of the fakest, most fraudulent scores you'll see now. I
was on Washington, Thank goodness they got there for me
and survivor. But essentially Sam Howell, who looked like total
garbage and they had zero confidence in him. In fourth quarter.
I saw stat I don't know if it's accurate that
in the final twelve minutes in like a one score game,
(14:02):
he threw one pass and it's like, what are we doing?
They were behind for some of that time, and even
when they take the lead, it's like, oh, we got
to convert, try to stay aggressive. Uh. The enemy and Rivera,
I don't know if they're on the same page. Washington
did not look great, but Arizona was bad. Most penalty
yards in the league in Week one. The offense just pathetic.
And you know, if Howell doesn't fumble it up there
(14:25):
at the one yard line and they walk it in
for seven and then the other one gave him a
field goal. I think he had a red zone turnover
as well. It's like Washington wins that game twenty seven
to six or something. So I'm kind of with you.
I like the Giants in Arizona, although I'm just curious.
We saw this go up from four on Monday to
like five and a half. Does that impact your decision?
Speaker 2 (14:45):
Well, six is my number. You know that's a key number.
I want five and a half. You could still get it.
It's widely available.
Speaker 3 (14:51):
Some Just to point piggyback off of how bad Sam
Howell was, right, he got sacked the second most in
the league, got sacked seven, six or seven times.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
I forget horrible. The offensive line actually.
Speaker 3 (15:02):
Graded out very well by the Commanders, according to Pro
Football Focus, eighth best passing pass blocking in the NFL
last week. The Cardinals didn't weren't even getting credit for
those sacks. It was really just about same howe holding
onto the ball too long. So that's a major problem
for me. The big reason why I like the Giants
and so stay with me here. Ftn's had some awesome
data here shout out Aaron Schultz from Football Outsiders. Now
(15:25):
is a FDN the Cardinals against play action worst in the.
Speaker 2 (15:31):
NFL by a wide margin.
Speaker 3 (15:34):
The Giants ran play action third most in the NFL
last year, and the Cardinals were allowing seventy one point
seven completion rate in the against play action, worse in
the NFL by a lot. They also allowed eleven touchdowns
one to twenty point six. Quarterback grating also really bad.
Here's the interesting thing for me and why I think
this plays out specifically well for the Giants with the
(15:55):
play action is the average depth of target for the
Cardinals was also the lowest of every team for play action,
So people are just beating them down low really like
on the flats. Basically, I mean that that screams Darren
Waller to me, for your props.
Speaker 1 (16:11):
You know that.
Speaker 2 (16:11):
Screams sa Quon Barkley receiving props.
Speaker 3 (16:15):
You know, I think that the Giants are gonna really
just utilize play action here and kind of play action
the Cardinals' death. You know, the Cardinals do have a
different defensive coordinator. Twenty nine year old from the Eagles
linebacking coach is now over there. You know, the personal
didn't change that much. It seems like the Cardinals are
trying to get worse. You know, I'm not I'm not
in I'm the Cardinals my spot and I'll plus.
Speaker 1 (16:37):
Yeah, I don't know how how often you listen to
the pot Eric, but I've talked about this a lot.
When I was a kid, I wanted to be a
lawyer because I just loved arguing. Of course, my parents
and teachers love that, as you might imagine. So I
hear everything you just said, and then something at the
end and slipped in and I was like, oh wait
a minute. Gannon was with the Eagles last year. The
Eagles absolutely kicked the Giants ass all three meetings. And
(16:59):
I'm not saying that was because again, and the Eagles
obviously had a superior roster and the offense is a
machine however, again, and it you know, it's not like
he's seeing Daniel Jones and the play action and Dable
and Saque for the first time, so there is some familiarity.
That playoff game was like a layup, right. I mean,
everybody in their mom had the Eagles. I just wonder
can gen and take anything from that and extrapolate it
(17:22):
and use it here. Frankly, though, the Eagles defense last
year was amazing, and as you said, like, nobody on
the Cardinals defense is any good except I don't Buddha Baker.
Speaker 2 (17:32):
Yeah, no, literally literally is the only good player on
their defense. It's it's bad. It's bad.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
You know, the scheme the you could definitely scheme some
things up, especially having familiarity with Jones and Barkley and
you know, the Dable offense. What I really like about
the Giants is that is their amount their usage of
motion preplay. Giants aould always top of the league in
motion preplay. That's huge for me, you know, And also
(17:57):
like personnel wise, the Eagles per Snella, is like, you know,
top two in the league at least, you know, the
Cardinals don't have any Pro Bowl players on their team.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
I think maybe Buddha bakers. Maybe.
Speaker 3 (18:09):
Uh, there's really just there's not a whole lot there
for me to to latch onto and say, like, you know, hey,
like the Giants offense is this bad?
Speaker 2 (18:17):
They got shut out by the Cowboys.
Speaker 3 (18:18):
Like that game, I'm almost throwing it up as a wash,
Like I know it sounds crazy to do, but it
just got off to such a bad start. And then
they started running spread they started spread them out. They
give up on the run. That's just not their game.
So that first drive where that's that little glimmer of
hope that I'm kind of latching onto here, the little
glimmer of hope in that running game with the pat
(18:38):
with the play action, that's that's where I'm leaning here.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Well, you know I'm with you Giants, obviously on the side,
just I had to go look at the game log.
So the Giants moved the ball well on that drive.
Remember Collinsworth was like, hey, they're running all over these guys.
And then they had the flukey block field goal, Like
come on, a guy hurdles block run back, so already
you're at a deficit. However, Dallas's offense I didn't think
was great. Their scripted drive went down the field, they
(19:02):
got a field goal, and we're all unraveled. Was the
fluky pick six? I don't know they calling that a
fumble or a pick.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
Or whatboy pick?
Speaker 1 (19:11):
Yeah, I don't know. I thought Barkley caught it and
then his helmet, the defender's helmet just popped it out
and then he runs it back and at that point
it's a wrap. But if you look at Dallas, I'm
seeing here. So they had a sixty yard drive resulting
in a field goal, thirty eight yard drive touchdown. Second half,
they came out with the seventy five yard touchdown drive
to hammer it down, but they did not move the ball.
(19:31):
I didn't think Dallas was particularly sharp, So I think
I'm with you so far. Agreement Giants and Bengals. However,
this next game, since we started talking about the Cowboys, Eric,
let's go there. Cowboys are hosting Zach Wilson and the Jets.
You are a Giants fan. I don't know if you
took Glee and Aaron Rodgers going down, hopefully not. You
(19:52):
don't seem like that kind of guy. But but the
Cowboys are now nine and a half point favorites. However,
seeing a couple books, you know, we're recording this, and
in the last hour, I've seen a couple go down
to nine. Draft Kings is still at nine and a half,
and it's like, Okay, what's happening here? Is somebody, you know,
(20:14):
just taking some educated guesses on the Jets. I know,
at first, blush, it's like all the cowboys are gonna
murder them. But Eric, you've seen the numbers on teams
that win by thirty in week one, you know, massive regression.
They're feeling themselves. Michael Parsons going on podcasts and it's
everybody's all gassed up. I am curious, though, Jets short week,
(20:35):
you've basically had to install an offense for Zach Wilson.
Is this just too much for the Jets to compete?
Or can this defense remember Deck led the league in
picks last year? Can this defense lock down Dallas and
keep it respectable? And then you know you're going to
the fourth quarter down nine to six or something.
Speaker 2 (20:50):
Yeah, I was interested at nine and a half. I
was hoping to get to ten there.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
Yeah, I was sitting I was like, all right, ten, ten, ten,
But doesn't know that that's gonna happen.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
I know that some Brandon Cook's news just dropped right.
We were jumping on here. Brandon Cooks didn't practice today
and it sounded like he might not play at all.
So I believe it was a hamstring injury.
Speaker 3 (21:07):
Yeah, so you know, maybe there's some line movement because
of Brandon Cooks. I'm not too sure. But for me,
you know what's crazy. And I know that Rhodes said
this to you on the podcast yesterday. He thought Zach
Wilson played well, you know, I can kind of see
where he's coming from there. I know that sounds crazy.
I was like, man, he might be the only person
on planet Earth to agree that Zach Wilson didn't do terribly.
(21:31):
Bill's defense, It's not bad. That Garret Wilson pass wasn't good.
You were right, it wasn't. That was not a good
pass for the touchdown. But you know, I think if
they let him loose and trust him a little bit,
Like I'm third and that third and twelve play near
the end of regulation, they ran it up the middle
with cook and I think he got like six yards.
Then they kicked the field goal to take the lead.
Speaker 2 (21:50):
For me, I would have thrown it there on third
and twelve.
Speaker 3 (21:53):
I know that sounds crazy, but yeah, I know, I know.
I think that Zach Wilson needs a little bit of trust.
I think that you do some quick plays, Garrett Wilson,
a lot of screens. Do the two running back set.
They were doing that a lot out of out of shotgun.
They were doing the two running backs with Cook Breeze,
Breese Hall and you know, then you have the receivers.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
I want to see more of that where like you can.
Speaker 3 (22:17):
Kind of get the motion going, uh and then you know,
hit hit Wilson on a slant, you know, things like that.
I thought Wilson looked all right given the circumstances. It
wasn't expecting to play.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
Yeah, yeah, I know that crazy.
Speaker 1 (22:29):
So I'll ask Eric, so you want to give Wilson
some rope? So do you? I don't. You can't do
it with the lead, right, Sala knows and listen, fair
or unfair? Rogers was going to save his job in
the GM's job. Right, So what happens if they win
six games with Zack Wilson, Like, does Sala get another
chance next year? I don't know. So if he's thinking
about his job, yo, we're going straight to conservative here.
(22:51):
You know we're gonna hand it off Breese Hall, Brees's lightning.
Let's just not make mistakes. You remember your young guy Eric,
but Mark Sanchez game managed the Jets to a couple
AFC title games. Hey, we've got a great defense in
a growing strong run game. Let's not screw it up.
Can you say that to Zach Wilson or because he
looks like he has some YOLO in him, Like every
(23:12):
third possession, he's like just scrambling for his let me
just chuck it up and.
Speaker 3 (23:15):
Yeah, if he if he can just I know it
sounds like if you could just avoid that, but you know,
you know, anything happens. You know, if you just avoid,
it's almost like he like starts scrambling. It thinks he's
at BYU again. He just starts throwing it up. It's
like he's like, oh b yu, He's like, I remember
I used to do this and then just chuck it
for me. I would say, you know, I'd like to
see Zach Wilson get some rope. You know, even RG
(23:37):
three said it yesterday on Get Up. You know the
Jets their future is tied to Zach Wilson. No matter what,
this year, there's no quarterback that's gonna come in there
and save them.
Speaker 2 (23:48):
It's gonna be the Zach Wilson.
Speaker 3 (23:49):
So Zach Wilson's either gonna play really well this year
and maybe even slidify himself as the quarterback of two
years from now, or he's gonna play way out.
Speaker 2 (23:56):
Of the league. That's it.
Speaker 1 (23:57):
That's nicy.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
He's either out of the league.
Speaker 3 (23:59):
He's either out of league or he is the quarterback
for the future in two years from now.
Speaker 2 (24:04):
I don't think there's any there's no.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
Yeah, I kind of I would largely agree because if
he screws up like this is his last chance, I
want to go to another game. This is this is
uh one that I bet at three and I just
looked at It's not three anymore. The Chicago Bears going
to Tampa. They were getting through. This was pick them
on the look ahead a week ago. It's now was
it three? It has since come off to two and
a half. No, listen, I know nobody's gonna say this.
(24:28):
Everybody's overreacting all the same O Bears. They stink eber
Flush is gone, blah blah blah. I kind of liked
the Chicago Bears in this spot going to Tampa. Eric,
what was it three weeks ago that the world was saying, oh,
Tampa could be a fire sale come trade deadline Tampa,
Caleb Williams like Todd Bowless put your house up for
sale like it was. The vibes were strange in Tampa. Now,
(24:49):
I did have them last week in the contest, but
I don't love them going forward.
Speaker 3 (24:53):
No, definitely don't love them going forward, especially with Baker Mayfion.
They were going to trade Mike Evans like yesterday, you know,
I was already buying my Mike Evans Giants Jersey. I
was ready to go. So I hear what you're saying
on the Bears plus three. Actually, you know everybody had
a Justin Field's MVP ticket.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
Oh you know what I mean. No, I'm not even kidding.
He was the most bet MVP guy.
Speaker 3 (25:16):
He is the most bet MVP guy who's eighty to
one all the way down to thirty to one during
the off season.
Speaker 1 (25:21):
Oh yeah, man, I'm more Wait a minute.
Speaker 2 (25:26):
Well think about it. Yeah, in like a week, yeah,
in like a week. But like, think about it.
Speaker 3 (25:33):
He can run and he has an arm, so like,
the thought process was, if he can, if they can
really expand the passing game, the running, the running stats
will still be there. So that was the thought process
from the betting side, and it was before they even
got DJ moore. My, that's my major concern is that
they are not even really getting DJ more involved. I'm
not a big Darnell MOONI fan the running back situation.
(25:56):
They have Roshan Johnson, who is that ground pick this
past year. I don't even know where he went to college,
but he's got the size. He's six foot two twenty.
He runs a four to four, so he's got the size.
He's got the bell cow size. That like kind of
makes sense, you know. I got a Cloil Herbert Shares
in fantasy. For me, Buccaneers are probably the side once
(26:20):
once that field.
Speaker 2 (26:21):
Goal goes away.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
I'd probably lean Tampa Bay just because I thought that
the Bears defense looked so bad.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
I can't get on the Bears band higging with you.
I'd love to.
Speaker 3 (26:31):
And my old co worker Jeremy Layton, big Bears guy.
He he's on the full telling the owner to sell
the team. He's starting to petition the whole thing.
Speaker 2 (26:40):
So yeah, it's.
Speaker 1 (26:42):
Yeah, so Bowles loves to blitz, and last week Kirk
Cousins shredded them up and down the field. He put
up big stats. The problem is Kirk made some dumb
Kirk Cousins mistakes. My guess is instead of Justin Field's
forcing crap this week, he will just say, you know what.
I know you guys want me to win from the pocket,
but when I'm under dress, I'm talking and running, and
(27:03):
I just I think that Green Bay defense has like
seven first round picks. I think they're way better than
the Tampa defense. I don't know. I mean, I would
agree with you. The Tampa cornerbacks are pretty good. But
something wants to me. You know, I think I'm gonna
hope ride with the Bears, but you did give me
something to think about going against them. Not a sexy matchup,
but you know, fascinating to me. One of these two
(27:25):
teams is going to start to and oh, the Falcons
or the Packers. Do you have any read on this side?
This was I think Falcons by one, and now it's
Packers by one and a half. So a swing through zero,
not a huge swing, but a swing.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
Nonetheless, injuries are going to tell the story for this one.
Aaron Jones is in practicing, Christian Watson's not practicing, Romo
Dobbs is in practicing. So pretty much all of the
major weapons in Green Bay are aren't playing right now,
aren't practicing. So if they were to play all in
Green Bay, I would bet at to three right. And
the reason that I would say that is a has
(27:59):
been ready to look awful if he gets behind it.
Then when the Falcons get behind in a negative game
script they are going they're gonna get blown out a lot.
The blownout potential in Atlanta is massive. Same thing with
the Giants. To be honest, it's kind of like the
the same problem. When you're playing ahead. You can do
the play action, you can run the ball, you can
do the RPO stuff. But once that lead goes away
(28:19):
and you're down by two scores, you have to start
airing and out and the quarterbacks can't do it. That's
the big problem. So when for me I look at it,
it's a dome game. So the Packers don't even really
have to deal with weather. You know, I think Jordan
Love looked amazing last week even without Christian Watson. Once
he comes back, I'm interested the offensive line. You got
still got Batari there. Yeah, I would say, you know, Packers.
(28:42):
I mean I believe that Love was one of the
highest ranked passers in the NFL on Pro Football Focus.
Speaker 2 (28:48):
No one saw that coming, so.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
Yeah, I definitely did not. I don't know what to make.
It feels like a bit of an overreaction. But this
Aaron Jones thing now has to be freaked out because
I loved him in Fantasy. We have I think me
and my son, you know, we have him on like
three or four teams, and he starts going bonkers on
the screen passes and we're freaking out, you know, winning
fantasy games. We went five to zero. Nobody cares, but
no Jones is huge, like losing that element. I mean,
(29:12):
I don't think Dylan's as deadly in the screen game,
is he?
Speaker 2 (29:15):
No? Not really. He's really good at the goal line.
He's more just a pure runner.
Speaker 3 (29:19):
He kind of like reminds me of Josh Jacobs, but
maybe like a poor version of Josh Jacobs. Yeah, I
would say, you're looking if you're This is a wait
till Friday. This is to the all the straight fire listeners.
This is a wait till Friday. See the injury report
and then even maybe throw a packer beat writer on
tweet notifications because that's what I do, and wait for
(29:41):
the injury report because once that injury report comes out,
that line is going to move immediately.
Speaker 1 (29:47):
Yeah, all right, let's do a couple more games here.
I'm looking at this one. I don't think anyone is
gonna like it. It's maybe the coaching mismatch of the week.
Mike Rabel at home against Brandon Staley and the Chargers.
Chargers were I think three and a half on the
It's now down to three and it looks like we
could be headed for two and a half. I listen.
(30:07):
I think people are overreacting to the Chargers defense, like
Tua tyreekan company are gonna shred all season. Okay, it's
nothing embarrassing that you got destroyed by Tua. We'll see.
I mean, he looked incredible. Here's what I don't understand.
Tennessee looked awful. I mean, Ryan Tannehill was arguably the worst. Well,
I can't say the worst. Daniel Jones was horrible, but
Tannehill had three bad picks. The offense is stuck in
(30:30):
the mud. I don't see any I don't see what
people are on with Tennessee here. I know Eckler could
be a situation and maybe missed the game. I hope
you got Josh Kelly and fantasy. But I like the
Chargers here to go on the road. If you look
Eric historically, they've been good on the road.
Speaker 3 (30:45):
Yeah, charge Chargers. So here's my thing with the with
the Chargers, that is the run defense. The run defense
is still terrible, and Derek Henry is still there. So
that's what that's what you're seeing here is people are
expecting Derrick Henry three touchdowns, two hundred yards rushing Chargers,
some late penalties, some late turnovers, things like that, kind
(31:07):
of screwing them if you will. You know, I'm just
so done with the My thing with Justin Herbert and
I had a Justin Herbert MVP ticket last year. My
thing with Justin Herbert is that he how many times
have we seen him come up small in game winning
opportunities where you have, you know, a minute and a
half left, two timeouts, Go get a field goal to win,
(31:28):
Go get a field goal to tie, and then sack
fumble penalty and now all of a sudden, it's third
and twenty and you have to either punt or your
or a fourth and twenty and it's turnover on downs.
It happens way too much of the Chargers. So I
just don't trust the Chargers late in the game. I'd
look to jump maybe on on an under, I believe.
Let me see what the number is right now, I
(31:49):
would look for Yeah, I'd look for an under there
for that game. For yeah, it's forty five even actually,
so i'd look for an under there. Unders were crushing
last week. I don't know if you saw, I.
Speaker 1 (32:03):
Think twelve and four or something like twelve and.
Speaker 3 (32:05):
Four, eleven and thirty something like that. Unders are crushing
Week one, a big and you know it's funny. I
was listening to a podcast, one of the FTN podcasts,
and a reason that they said that the Unders were
hitting at such a high rate is that the sack
rates were so high. Across the league. Offensive line play
was really really bad on Sunday. Quarterback play, offensive line
play all kind of combined together. So you know, I
(32:28):
would kind of look at some of the Unders in
this one and across the league really, you know, especially
for the Thursday night game. You know, you look at
it under there too.
Speaker 1 (32:37):
We'll get to Thursday in a second. The one thing
about the Chargers, so this Tennessee defense get very ballyhooed, right.
Everybody loves Simmons and Varabel's a great coach. Cars moved
the ball up and down the field with like garbage weapons.
I mean, Rashid Shaheed whoever that is, had a monster game,
and it was like they were getting kind of I
(32:59):
think Car at three hundred yards passing, and I thought
they moved the ball well just ineptitude when it mattered,
and Car kept getting sacked. I like Chargers offensive line
better than the Saints. I like the weapons better. Although
Mike Williams is concussed already, I I guess I'm gonna
have to give it more thought. But I thought I
would definitely have a Chargers ticket in my pocket and
I'd be on them. What's that?
Speaker 2 (33:20):
Sounds like Eckler is not gonna play.
Speaker 3 (33:22):
So that's a tough one because he was really really
involved in their game plan, like big time.
Speaker 2 (33:25):
He got like twenty carries in the first three quarters.
Speaker 1 (33:28):
Yeah, no, Eckler a machine. And then of course he
kind of took some jabs at the coach this week fun.
All right, last one before Thursday and at football, let's
go Dolphins Patriots. Will Bill Belichick start zero and two?
I'm seeing Dolphins favored by three, and Miami, I think
universally looked like the best offense in the league. Two
(33:48):
has never lost to Belichick. You know, Tyreek Hill, who
just shredded J C. Jackson, looks like he's gonna maybe
line up against Christian Gonzalez, the rookie who played well,
but he's a rookie, Andreek is Tyreek. It isn't indoors,
it's outdoors. Although that doesn't see there's gonna be weather.
Are you back Intua here again or no?
Speaker 3 (34:09):
At three? That's a tough one. I would say it
really comes down to the defense. Uh for New England.
This is an underspot for me for sure, Like this
is one of the many unders of the of the day.
This is probably one that I target the most. Everybody's
so in on the Miami, on the Miami defense, on
the Miami offense. Excuse me, I actually really liked the
(34:31):
Patriots defense. They looked amazing against the Eagles. Eagles are
high flying, you know, the the volume of which that
the Eagles usually look to throw. You know, I think
that the Patriots did a really good job. The time
to throw stat that the Patriots had, it's eluding me
right now, is like it was like under two point
four seconds per throw was the lowest in the league.
(34:53):
Time to throw for for hurts before we started scrambling.
So I think that the Patriots defense is the key,
and I think I'm gonna I would go under there
really interesting.
Speaker 1 (35:05):
I'm just trying to think, like what advantage does New
England have, Like, I know they have some dudes on defense.
Jude On is very good, but Miami's got some names
defensively as well. I know they were torched in the
run game, and I'm assuming this is going to be
a Romandre Stevenson twenty five carry kind of game. Maybe
Zeke's getting ten carries, but you know, this throwing thing,
(35:27):
like they're down sixteen to nothing and Mac has got
to start chucking and duck and I think he attempted
fifty four passes. Like that's not a winning formula for
the Patriots. I think you're onto something with this under
a lot of running overall, Do you like the Patriots
this year or not? Really?
Speaker 3 (35:42):
They're like the good, bad team, if that makes sense,
Like they're good, but they're probably gonna come up short
in a lot of games. That's why I'm kind of
avoiding the plus three there, because I think that it's
really gonna come down to the last possession or two
where it could be a touchdown late, it could be
a field goal that puts it to.
Speaker 2 (36:00):
Six, et cetera.
Speaker 3 (36:02):
So you know, I think that they're gonna be competitive
with everybody, and I think that they're gonna win a
lot of close games. They're gonna lose a lot of
close games that look like an eight to nine team
if I were, if I were to guess really, because
I don't I don't believe in the quarterback play at all.
Speaker 2 (36:14):
I also don't think they should have liked o Jacoby Myers.
I love Jacoby Myers, and Jujusmuthschuster didn't look very good either,
So uh yeah, I'm gonna I'm I.
Speaker 3 (36:24):
Would target them at a bigger number. I was hoping
if they were like if they were on the road,
I would actually target them.
Speaker 2 (36:29):
I'd I'm more likely to target them because I get
maybe i'd get six, because I would like to.
Speaker 1 (36:33):
Eric Richter, New York Post great stuff, good luck with
the column, and uh you know I would say good
luck to your giants, but only this week as I'm
a Jets fan.
Speaker 2 (36:42):
Appreciate you J Mack.
Speaker 1 (36:43):
Thanks buddy,
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and deposit restrictions apply the volume. This is Straight Fire
(01:37):
with Jason McIntyre. What is up? Straight Fire? Fam? It's
me Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire for Thursday, September fourteenth. It's
nearly that time, Folks. Week two almost upon us as
a special guest. We decided, you know, we like gambling
in these these waters. We decided to bring on Eric Richter,
(01:57):
New York Post. He was on last year. He's a
Giants fan. We's let that slide. It's okay, It's okay.
Giants fans are allowed on the podcast, even though I'm
a Jets fan and don't like the Giants at all.
Although as a hint, I do like the Giants. This week,
I've already bet them. We'll talk about that shortly, so
we'll bring on Eric to talk about it. We'll briefly
touch on Vikings Eagles, although I have to listen. You know,
(02:20):
I felt good about money line Lions for last Thursday.
That was a hit. I hit Cowboys Giants under and
I had Jets Jets in the under that hit. So
a little primetime run to start the season. Gotta be honest, guys,
don't know what's going on with this game. I don't
know why money's coming in on the Vikings to take
(02:42):
it from seven and a half to six and a half. Obviously,
clearly some of it has to do with the injuries
to the Eagles. They have just been decimated this week.
At linebacker. You've got na Kobe Dean, the kid from
Georgia on IR so now you're starting someone named Christian Ellis.
Do not know his work. It looks like he's undrafted,
but in the league for a minute. Did not grade
(03:02):
out well last week against the Patriots. So that could
mean a good game for Alex Madison, nice running back
for the Vikings who also catches passes. And then in
the second Aary no Bradbury, no Reed blanket Ship. That's
two starters on the defense. And you know, Darius slay
Good not an amazing cornerback. I know he's had some
good moments, but I'm just telling you that's not ideal.
(03:25):
Going up against Justin Jefferson. And if you saw last week,
Jordan Addison is emerging, emerging enough that I grabbed him
in fantasy. So there's a world where Kirk Cousin has
some success here, right, except for the fact that he's
down his center, and that's not great going up against
Jalen Carter. So Pro Football Focus if you guys don't subscribe.
Jalen Carter had a really, really good game in his
(03:46):
NFL debut against the Patriots. One hundred and twenty seven
defensive lineman got grades. He grabbed it, graded out as
number two in the league. He only played forty snaps,
but he was super effective and disruptive and wreaking havoc
on the Patriots. Now why did he do that? Partially
because their offensive line was a mass unit. Well, Vikings
(04:08):
are down their starting center, derisaw the left guard miss practice.
He's questionable. He was a minor practice on Wednesday. Misspractice Tuesday,
and it's like, are you rushing back your left tackle?
He goes down for the season, You're really screwed. So
you know, I guess what I'm doing is I'm pushing
back a little bit against the over I do think, yes,
(04:31):
there could be points. Brian Floor, as we know, he
likes the blitz. He consistently brought pressure against Mayfield, and
you know, Mayfield beat it because you can't bring pressure
with this Minnesota Vikings defense. That being said, I do
wonder if Flores changes it up just a little bit
and says, you know what, let's avoid the blitz. Let's
(04:52):
play it safe. Jalen Hurst did not look super comfortable
last week, and I could see the Vikings hanging around
this fea. He feels to me like a twenty seven
twenty twenty twenty seven to twenty one in that range,
which is right around the six. And I'm sorry, I've
got to lean to the to the Eagles here. I
(05:12):
just don't trust. I know it's a cheesy handicap, but
I don't trust Kirk Cousins in a primetime spot. Again,
when at the high leverage moments against the Bucks in
the red zone, interception fumble leads directly to Tampa points.
Like sure, in between the thirties, he's awesome, But what
happens when it gets down to crunch time and he's
under pressure because Eagles defensive line is dominating. Now, if
(05:34):
you remember last year on Monday Night Football, I think
both teams run defeated, and the Eagles just smacked the
sh I mean it was a beatdown. It was just brutal.
But this Eagle's defense doesn't look as good as last
year and the offense did not look crisp. But again,
I don't think the world of Minnesota this year, and
I think there's a legit chance they start the season
(05:55):
zero and two and you start to hear rumblings about, well,
this is it for Kirk Cousins. And at what point.
I'm not saying they're gonna openly tank justin Jefferson's not
gonna be happy with that, But like, when do you
start to see them and be like, Okay, well, you know,
we don't have much here, let's assess our talent and
let's think about next season. Like they're just they're not
that good. I know the division is not great, but
if the Packers win to go to two and zo
(06:16):
Vikings lose in the zero to two and it's like, whoa,
we got some problems here. I don't like this Vikings team.
I don't like the schedule, particularly after this. You know,
you got obviously get rest after the Eagles, but you're
then hosting the Chargers and Justin Herbert and you know,
depending on what you think of the Chargers, I think highly.
(06:37):
You stare at Owen three in the face. Now they're
gonna be Carolina after that, but then it's Chiefs and
then it's Bears Niners. Like this is a brutal start.
That loss really hurt to Tampa, set them back, and
now I believe they lose to the Eagles. So I mean,
there's no value in putting Eagles money line. Right, Let's
see what that is here in the they have this
app and it looks like Eagles money line is minus
(07:02):
two someone in the neighborhood of minus two sixty minus
two seventy. I'm not betting two hundred and seventy bucks
to one hundred on the chance that the Eagles screw
it up and lose. I just don't think that's a
big win. So if I had to bet, I would
take the Eagles at six. I think there's a little
bit of value, a little overreaction to them not looking
great again. This is a pizza money bet, right. I'm
(07:24):
not going a whole hog here. That's not a big
play like Falcons last week, and if you missed the
podcast earlier in the week, you'll have to go back
and listen. Already several bets I like some favorites. This
week is bounce back week, overreaction week, whatever you want
to call it. Right, without further ado, let's get to
today's guest, Eric Richter of the New York Post. You
(07:45):
know how guy Jason likes to think he knows everything
when it comes to sports. I know what sports dance wants,
but for.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
Everything he doesn't, he knows a guy who does. Let's
just say I know.
Speaker 1 (07:57):
A guy who knows the guy who knows. Another big,
big day here on the podcast. We are now live
on AMP and we have a guest, Eric Richter from
the New York Post to talk NFL Week two. I
should preface this by saying he's been on the podcast before.
He is a big UFC guy, but he is now
(08:18):
writing a column on NFL picks for the New York Post. Eric,
I'm very curious how do a week one go for you?
Speaker 3 (08:25):
Let's see Giants plus three and a half, So you know, basically,
Giants plus three and a half is probably the worst
pick you could have of the entire week. You know
it's brutal, brutal, but you know we're gonna rebound here
in week two. I'm not worried about it.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
I'm sure the forgiving New York audience was so kind
and respectful to that miss and listen, I nearly took
the Giants. We saw divisional home dogs had been on
a ridiculous tear for something like fifteen twenty years in
week one, and they did go I think five and three,
but the Giants were one of the three they did
not cover. The Colts had another bad beat on the
divisional home dog front. But week two is a different animal. Eric,
(09:02):
I kind of attack it this way. What is everybody
overreacting to in week one? Where I can find some
value in week two? And we can either go through
the games or go back and forth. But I thought
i'd start with you. Is there anything that totally jumps
out at you? And I'm gonna go ahead and guess
the New York Giants might be on your bingo card again.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
Giants are definitely gonna be on my bingo card.
Speaker 3 (09:21):
I think that what we're really overreacting to more than anything,
is the known commodities here. There's a lot of teams
out here that we know are good. Joe Burrow we
know is good. The Chiefs, we know they're good. So
I think that when we look at, you know, the
betting card here for week two and going forward, it's
not just about this week. I'm really looking at going forward,
the elite quarterback play and really like going forward, looking
(09:45):
at trying to attack them in spots where it makes sense,
you know, even like this week you have the Bengals
opened up at two and a half against the Ravens,
who are really banged up, lost a lot of defensive players.
That whole defense really is already injured after one week,
you know. So when I look at it, I see
the Bengals, I see the Chiefs. You know, I feel
like the lines are kind of a little bit low there,
(10:06):
you know. So from from that perspective, I think, don't
overreact to poor performance early. We saw, you know, even
last year Joe Burrow threw foreignerceptions against the Steelers in
Week one last year. So I wouldn't over I wouldn't
overreact to anything like that.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
I'm kind of with you. And the gambling stuff is
weird because here we are recording this Wednesday and I'm
sure if we say Bengals we like them, everybody's gonna
be like, oh well, okay, let me jump on the Bengals.
And then you go look and the line is down
to three and a half when it was two and
a half Monday. And you know I talked about on
the pod, it's like you could tell right out of
the gate Ravens are really beat up. As you said too,
it sounds like two starting offensive linemen may not go.
(10:43):
Linderbaum in the center and then Big Ronnie they're the tackle,
so they're gonna be in some trouble. And the Bengals
obviously are not as bad as they're open or indicated.
I know you before we started recording, you recorded or
you referenced DVOA and the Cincinnati Bengals are thirty one
in D and we know that's just not accurate, right.
It was just a bad game, bad weather Burrow. And
(11:05):
I saw this note by Peter King. Burrow last year
was like averaging sixteen miles an hour, you know, being
elusive in the pocket. And I guess in the season
opener it was the fourth slowest game he's ever had.
Maybe the calf is something more than just a minor issue.
They did shut him down early. You think the Bengals
(11:26):
offense just opens a can on Baltimore because their defense
did not look great. I saw the pressure rates, Eric, like,
they're not gonna be able to get to the quarterback.
Speaker 3 (11:33):
No, they're not gonna able to get to the quarterback.
You know, I mean the Bengals. You know their offensive
line is a little shaky too. We know that if
you were watching the Bengals game. Also, he pointed to
his ankle a couple of times he was walking off,
so you know that might be a problem. I like
Joe Mixon though here the Ravens rush defense not wasn't
The Ravens rush defense isn't exactly, you know, one of
(11:54):
the best in the league. And for me, like I'm
looking at trying to a target something where you have
a running back that is one of the better ones
in the league. Chase Brown barely got any touches last week.
You know, I feel like Joe Mixon, you know, for
player props purposes, is someone that I would like to target,
especially for this game against the Ravens.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
And let me just ask you quickly, what did you
make of the Ravens. They did not play Lamar in
the preseason. They've got a great wide receiver room, but
it's very new and they looked a little clunky offensively.
I thought they were going to drop forty on the Texans,
and they struggled to get to twenty five. Lamar pick
I think he had two fumbles, lost one. They lose
Dobbins to injury. The running back rooms always decimated. Zay
(12:38):
Flowers look good, no Mark Andrews. It just felt like
an uneven performance from Baltimore. A lot of expectations for
the new OC and Lamar this year.
Speaker 3 (12:46):
Yeah, new offensive coordinator, a new totally new offense or
trying to spread them out. They're trying to throw it more.
You know, I didn't like I didn't like the usage
of Isaiah Likely. To be honest with you, I think
that he's a good tight end. Yeah, I'm concerned about that.
You know, Za Flowers, it was kind of a lot
of underneath throws, and he's definitely electric with the ball
in his hand. But I didn't like the way that
they were getting him used. How about some slant routes
(13:07):
instead of some underneath uh, some underneath dump offs.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
That's what it felt like. It was to me with
the Zay Flowers thing.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
Odell had that one catch that was pretty good for
like twenty seven yards I believe in the third quarter.
But you know, I off the passing offense. Little concern
there for sure. You know, Bengals minus three and a half,
it's still pretty tempting there that that hook there, and
you know books are trying to get you in on
that hook so that you know, divisional game, there's no
strongle in there on a bed. If it got back
(13:34):
down to three, I'd be I'd be intrigued out of
Bengals minus three. But yeah, that's that's kind of where
I'm at right now.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
Let's go to the Giants there in Arizona. Arizona one
of the fakest, most fraudulent scores you'll see now. I
was on Washington, Thank goodness they got there for me
and survivor. But essentially Sam Howell, who looked like total
garbage and they had zero confidence in him. In fourth quarter.
I saw stat I don't know if it's accurate that
in the final twelve minutes in like a one score game,
(14:02):
he threw one pass and it's like, what are we doing?
They were behind for some of that time, and even
when they take the lead, it's like, oh, we got
to convert, try to stay aggressive. Uh. The enemy and Rivera,
I don't know if they're on the same page. Washington
did not look great, but Arizona was bad. Most penalty
yards in the league in Week one. The offense just pathetic.
And you know, if Howell doesn't fumble it up there
(14:25):
at the one yard line and they walk it in
for seven and then the other one gave him a
field goal. I think he had a red zone turnover
as well. It's like Washington wins that game twenty seven
to six or something. So I'm kind of with you.
I like the Giants in Arizona, although I'm just curious.
We saw this go up from four on Monday to
like five and a half. Does that impact your decision?
Speaker 2 (14:45):
Well, six is my number. You know that's a key number.
I want five and a half. You could still get it.
It's widely available.
Speaker 3 (14:51):
Some Just to point piggyback off of how bad Sam
Howell was, right, he got sacked the second most in
the league, got sacked seven, six or seven times.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
I forget horrible. The offensive line actually.
Speaker 3 (15:02):
Graded out very well by the Commanders, according to Pro
Football Focus, eighth best passing pass blocking in the NFL
last week. The Cardinals didn't weren't even getting credit for
those sacks. It was really just about same howe holding
onto the ball too long. So that's a major problem
for me. The big reason why I like the Giants
and so stay with me here. Ftn's had some awesome
data here shout out Aaron Schultz from Football Outsiders. Now
(15:25):
is a FDN the Cardinals against play action worst in the.
Speaker 2 (15:31):
NFL by a wide margin.
Speaker 3 (15:34):
The Giants ran play action third most in the NFL
last year, and the Cardinals were allowing seventy one point
seven completion rate in the against play action, worse in
the NFL by a lot. They also allowed eleven touchdowns
one to twenty point six. Quarterback grating also really bad.
Here's the interesting thing for me and why I think
this plays out specifically well for the Giants with the
(15:55):
play action is the average depth of target for the
Cardinals was also the lowest of every team for play action,
So people are just beating them down low really like
on the flats. Basically, I mean that that screams Darren
Waller to me, for your props.
Speaker 1 (16:11):
You know that.
Speaker 2 (16:11):
Screams sa Quon Barkley receiving props.
Speaker 3 (16:15):
You know, I think that the Giants are gonna really
just utilize play action here and kind of play action
the Cardinals' death. You know, the Cardinals do have a
different defensive coordinator. Twenty nine year old from the Eagles
linebacking coach is now over there. You know, the personal
didn't change that much. It seems like the Cardinals are
trying to get worse. You know, I'm not I'm not
in I'm the Cardinals my spot and I'll plus.
Speaker 1 (16:37):
Yeah, I don't know how how often you listen to
the pot Eric, but I've talked about this a lot.
When I was a kid, I wanted to be a
lawyer because I just loved arguing. Of course, my parents
and teachers love that, as you might imagine. So I
hear everything you just said, and then something at the
end and slipped in and I was like, oh wait
a minute. Gannon was with the Eagles last year. The
Eagles absolutely kicked the Giants ass all three meetings. And
(16:59):
I'm not saying that was because again, and the Eagles
obviously had a superior roster and the offense is a
machine however, again, and it you know, it's not like
he's seeing Daniel Jones and the play action and Dable
and Saque for the first time, so there is some familiarity.
That playoff game was like a layup, right. I mean,
everybody in their mom had the Eagles. I just wonder
can gen and take anything from that and extrapolate it
(17:22):
and use it here. Frankly, though, the Eagles defense last
year was amazing, and as you said, like, nobody on
the Cardinals defense is any good except I don't Buddha Baker.
Speaker 2 (17:32):
Yeah, no, literally literally is the only good player on
their defense. It's it's bad. It's bad.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
You know, the scheme the you could definitely scheme some
things up, especially having familiarity with Jones and Barkley and
you know, the Dable offense. What I really like about
the Giants is that is their amount their usage of
motion preplay. Giants aould always top of the league in
motion preplay. That's huge for me, you know, And also
(17:57):
like personnel wise, the Eagles per Snella, is like, you know,
top two in the league at least, you know, the
Cardinals don't have any Pro Bowl players on their team.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
I think maybe Buddha bakers. Maybe.
Speaker 3 (18:09):
Uh, there's really just there's not a whole lot there
for me to to latch onto and say, like, you know, hey,
like the Giants offense is this bad?
Speaker 2 (18:17):
They got shut out by the Cowboys.
Speaker 3 (18:18):
Like that game, I'm almost throwing it up as a wash,
Like I know it sounds crazy to do, but it
just got off to such a bad start. And then
they started running spread they started spread them out. They
give up on the run. That's just not their game.
So that first drive where that's that little glimmer of
hope that I'm kind of latching onto here, the little
glimmer of hope in that running game with the pat
(18:38):
with the play action, that's that's where I'm leaning here.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Well, you know I'm with you Giants, obviously on the side,
just I had to go look at the game log.
So the Giants moved the ball well on that drive.
Remember Collinsworth was like, hey, they're running all over these guys.
And then they had the flukey block field goal, Like
come on, a guy hurdles block run back, so already
you're at a deficit. However, Dallas's offense I didn't think
was great. Their scripted drive went down the field, they
(19:02):
got a field goal, and we're all unraveled. Was the
fluky pick six? I don't know they calling that a
fumble or a pick.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
Or whatboy pick?
Speaker 1 (19:11):
Yeah, I don't know. I thought Barkley caught it and
then his helmet, the defender's helmet just popped it out
and then he runs it back and at that point
it's a wrap. But if you look at Dallas, I'm
seeing here. So they had a sixty yard drive resulting
in a field goal, thirty eight yard drive touchdown. Second half,
they came out with the seventy five yard touchdown drive
to hammer it down, but they did not move the ball.
(19:31):
I didn't think Dallas was particularly sharp, So I think
I'm with you so far. Agreement Giants and Bengals. However,
this next game, since we started talking about the Cowboys, Eric,
let's go there. Cowboys are hosting Zach Wilson and the Jets.
You are a Giants fan. I don't know if you
took Glee and Aaron Rodgers going down, hopefully not. You
(19:52):
don't seem like that kind of guy. But but the
Cowboys are now nine and a half point favorites. However,
seeing a couple books, you know, we're recording this, and
in the last hour, I've seen a couple go down
to nine. Draft Kings is still at nine and a half,
and it's like, Okay, what's happening here? Is somebody, you know,
(20:14):
just taking some educated guesses on the Jets. I know,
at first, blush, it's like all the cowboys are gonna
murder them. But Eric, you've seen the numbers on teams
that win by thirty in week one, you know, massive regression.
They're feeling themselves. Michael Parsons going on podcasts and it's
everybody's all gassed up. I am curious, though, Jets short week,
(20:35):
you've basically had to install an offense for Zach Wilson.
Is this just too much for the Jets to compete?
Or can this defense remember Deck led the league in
picks last year? Can this defense lock down Dallas and
keep it respectable? And then you know you're going to
the fourth quarter down nine to six or something.
Speaker 2 (20:50):
Yeah, I was interested at nine and a half. I
was hoping to get to ten there.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
Yeah, I was sitting I was like, all right, ten, ten, ten,
But doesn't know that that's gonna happen.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
I know that some Brandon Cook's news just dropped right.
We were jumping on here. Brandon Cooks didn't practice today
and it sounded like he might not play at all.
So I believe it was a hamstring injury.
Speaker 3 (21:07):
Yeah, so you know, maybe there's some line movement because
of Brandon Cooks. I'm not too sure. But for me,
you know what's crazy. And I know that Rhodes said
this to you on the podcast yesterday. He thought Zach
Wilson played well, you know, I can kind of see
where he's coming from there. I know that sounds crazy.
I was like, man, he might be the only person
on planet Earth to agree that Zach Wilson didn't do terribly.
(21:31):
Bill's defense, It's not bad. That Garret Wilson pass wasn't good.
You were right, it wasn't. That was not a good
pass for the touchdown. But you know, I think if
they let him loose and trust him a little bit,
Like I'm third and that third and twelve play near
the end of regulation, they ran it up the middle
with cook and I think he got like six yards.
Then they kicked the field goal to take the lead.
Speaker 2 (21:50):
For me, I would have thrown it there on third
and twelve.
Speaker 3 (21:53):
I know that sounds crazy, but yeah, I know, I know.
I think that Zach Wilson needs a little bit of trust.
I think that you do some quick plays, Garrett Wilson,
a lot of screens. Do the two running back set.
They were doing that a lot out of out of shotgun.
They were doing the two running backs with Cook Breeze,
Breese Hall and you know, then you have the receivers.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
I want to see more of that where like you can.
Speaker 3 (22:17):
Kind of get the motion going, uh and then you know,
hit hit Wilson on a slant, you know, things like that.
I thought Wilson looked all right given the circumstances. It
wasn't expecting to play.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
Yeah, yeah, I know that crazy.
Speaker 1 (22:29):
So I'll ask Eric, so you want to give Wilson
some rope? So do you? I don't. You can't do
it with the lead, right, Sala knows and listen, fair
or unfair? Rogers was going to save his job in
the GM's job. Right, So what happens if they win
six games with Zack Wilson, Like, does Sala get another
chance next year? I don't know. So if he's thinking
about his job, yo, we're going straight to conservative here.
(22:51):
You know we're gonna hand it off Breese Hall, Brees's lightning.
Let's just not make mistakes. You remember your young guy Eric,
but Mark Sanchez game managed the Jets to a couple
AFC title games. Hey, we've got a great defense in
a growing strong run game. Let's not screw it up.
Can you say that to Zach Wilson or because he
looks like he has some YOLO in him, Like every
(23:12):
third possession, he's like just scrambling for his let me
just chuck it up and.
Speaker 3 (23:15):
Yeah, if he if he can just I know it
sounds like if you could just avoid that, but you know,
you know, anything happens. You know, if you just avoid,
it's almost like he like starts scrambling. It thinks he's
at BYU again. He just starts throwing it up. It's
like he's like, oh b yu, He's like, I remember
I used to do this and then just chuck it
for me. I would say, you know, I'd like to
see Zach Wilson get some rope. You know, even RG
(23:37):
three said it yesterday on Get Up. You know the
Jets their future is tied to Zach Wilson. No matter what,
this year, there's no quarterback that's gonna come in there
and save them.
Speaker 2 (23:48):
It's gonna be the Zach Wilson.
Speaker 3 (23:49):
So Zach Wilson's either gonna play really well this year
and maybe even slidify himself as the quarterback of two
years from now, or he's gonna play way out.
Speaker 2 (23:56):
Of the league. That's it.
Speaker 1 (23:57):
That's nicy.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
He's either out of the league.
Speaker 3 (23:59):
He's either out of league or he is the quarterback
for the future in two years from now.
Speaker 2 (24:04):
I don't think there's any there's no.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
Yeah, I kind of I would largely agree because if
he screws up like this is his last chance, I
want to go to another game. This is this is
uh one that I bet at three and I just
looked at It's not three anymore. The Chicago Bears going
to Tampa. They were getting through. This was pick them
on the look ahead a week ago. It's now was
it three? It has since come off to two and
a half. No, listen, I know nobody's gonna say this.
(24:28):
Everybody's overreacting all the same O Bears. They stink eber
Flush is gone, blah blah blah. I kind of liked
the Chicago Bears in this spot going to Tampa. Eric,
what was it three weeks ago that the world was saying, oh,
Tampa could be a fire sale come trade deadline Tampa,
Caleb Williams like Todd Bowless put your house up for
sale like it was. The vibes were strange in Tampa. Now,
(24:49):
I did have them last week in the contest, but
I don't love them going forward.
Speaker 3 (24:53):
No, definitely don't love them going forward, especially with Baker Mayfion.
They were going to trade Mike Evans like yesterday, you know,
I was already buying my Mike Evans Giants Jersey. I
was ready to go. So I hear what you're saying
on the Bears plus three. Actually, you know everybody had
a Justin Field's MVP ticket.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
Oh you know what I mean. No, I'm not even kidding.
He was the most bet MVP guy.
Speaker 3 (25:16):
He is the most bet MVP guy who's eighty to
one all the way down to thirty to one during
the off season.
Speaker 1 (25:21):
Oh yeah, man, I'm more Wait a minute.
Speaker 2 (25:26):
Well think about it. Yeah, in like a week, yeah,
in like a week. But like, think about it.
Speaker 3 (25:33):
He can run and he has an arm, so like,
the thought process was, if he can, if they can
really expand the passing game, the running, the running stats
will still be there. So that was the thought process
from the betting side, and it was before they even
got DJ moore. My, that's my major concern is that
they are not even really getting DJ more involved. I'm
not a big Darnell MOONI fan the running back situation.
(25:56):
They have Roshan Johnson, who is that ground pick this
past year. I don't even know where he went to college,
but he's got the size. He's six foot two twenty.
He runs a four to four, so he's got the size.
He's got the bell cow size. That like kind of
makes sense, you know. I got a Cloil Herbert Shares
in fantasy. For me, Buccaneers are probably the side once
(26:20):
once that field.
Speaker 2 (26:21):
Goal goes away.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
I'd probably lean Tampa Bay just because I thought that
the Bears defense looked so bad.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
I can't get on the Bears band higging with you.
I'd love to.
Speaker 3 (26:31):
And my old co worker Jeremy Layton, big Bears guy.
He he's on the full telling the owner to sell
the team. He's starting to petition the whole thing.
Speaker 2 (26:40):
So yeah, it's.
Speaker 1 (26:42):
Yeah, so Bowles loves to blitz, and last week Kirk
Cousins shredded them up and down the field. He put
up big stats. The problem is Kirk made some dumb
Kirk Cousins mistakes. My guess is instead of Justin Field's
forcing crap this week, he will just say, you know what.
I know you guys want me to win from the pocket,
but when I'm under dress, I'm talking and running, and
(27:03):
I just I think that Green Bay defense has like
seven first round picks. I think they're way better than
the Tampa defense. I don't know. I mean, I would
agree with you. The Tampa cornerbacks are pretty good. But
something wants to me. You know, I think I'm gonna
hope ride with the Bears, but you did give me
something to think about going against them. Not a sexy matchup,
but you know, fascinating to me. One of these two
(27:25):
teams is going to start to and oh, the Falcons
or the Packers. Do you have any read on this side?
This was I think Falcons by one, and now it's
Packers by one and a half. So a swing through zero,
not a huge swing, but a swing.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
Nonetheless, injuries are going to tell the story for this one.
Aaron Jones is in practicing, Christian Watson's not practicing, Romo
Dobbs is in practicing. So pretty much all of the
major weapons in Green Bay are aren't playing right now,
aren't practicing. So if they were to play all in
Green Bay, I would bet at to three right. And
the reason that I would say that is a has
(27:59):
been ready to look awful if he gets behind it.
Then when the Falcons get behind in a negative game
script they are going they're gonna get blown out a lot.
The blownout potential in Atlanta is massive. Same thing with
the Giants. To be honest, it's kind of like the
the same problem. When you're playing ahead. You can do
the play action, you can run the ball, you can
do the RPO stuff. But once that lead goes away
(28:19):
and you're down by two scores, you have to start
airing and out and the quarterbacks can't do it. That's
the big problem. So when for me I look at it,
it's a dome game. So the Packers don't even really
have to deal with weather. You know, I think Jordan
Love looked amazing last week even without Christian Watson. Once
he comes back, I'm interested the offensive line. You got
still got Batari there. Yeah, I would say, you know, Packers.
(28:42):
I mean I believe that Love was one of the
highest ranked passers in the NFL on Pro Football Focus.
Speaker 2 (28:48):
No one saw that coming, so.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
Yeah, I definitely did not. I don't know what to make.
It feels like a bit of an overreaction. But this
Aaron Jones thing now has to be freaked out because
I loved him in Fantasy. We have I think me
and my son, you know, we have him on like
three or four teams, and he starts going bonkers on
the screen passes and we're freaking out, you know, winning
fantasy games. We went five to zero. Nobody cares, but
no Jones is huge, like losing that element. I mean,
(29:12):
I don't think Dylan's as deadly in the screen game,
is he?
Speaker 2 (29:15):
No? Not really. He's really good at the goal line.
He's more just a pure runner.
Speaker 3 (29:19):
He kind of like reminds me of Josh Jacobs, but
maybe like a poor version of Josh Jacobs. Yeah, I
would say, you're looking if you're This is a wait
till Friday. This is to the all the straight fire listeners.
This is a wait till Friday. See the injury report
and then even maybe throw a packer beat writer on
tweet notifications because that's what I do, and wait for
(29:41):
the injury report because once that injury report comes out,
that line is going to move immediately.
Speaker 1 (29:47):
Yeah, all right, let's do a couple more games here.
I'm looking at this one. I don't think anyone is
gonna like it. It's maybe the coaching mismatch of the week.
Mike Rabel at home against Brandon Staley and the Chargers.
Chargers were I think three and a half on the
It's now down to three and it looks like we
could be headed for two and a half. I listen.
(30:07):
I think people are overreacting to the Chargers defense, like
Tua tyreekan company are gonna shred all season. Okay, it's
nothing embarrassing that you got destroyed by Tua. We'll see.
I mean, he looked incredible. Here's what I don't understand.
Tennessee looked awful. I mean, Ryan Tannehill was arguably the worst. Well,
I can't say the worst. Daniel Jones was horrible, but
Tannehill had three bad picks. The offense is stuck in
(30:30):
the mud. I don't see any I don't see what
people are on with Tennessee here. I know Eckler could
be a situation and maybe missed the game. I hope
you got Josh Kelly and fantasy. But I like the
Chargers here to go on the road. If you look
Eric historically, they've been good on the road.
Speaker 3 (30:45):
Yeah, charge Chargers. So here's my thing with the with
the Chargers, that is the run defense. The run defense
is still terrible, and Derek Henry is still there. So
that's what that's what you're seeing here is people are
expecting Derrick Henry three touchdowns, two hundred yards rushing Chargers,
some late penalties, some late turnovers, things like that, kind
(31:07):
of screwing them if you will. You know, I'm just
so done with the My thing with Justin Herbert and
I had a Justin Herbert MVP ticket last year. My
thing with Justin Herbert is that he how many times
have we seen him come up small in game winning
opportunities where you have, you know, a minute and a
half left, two timeouts, Go get a field goal to win,
(31:28):
Go get a field goal to tie, and then sack
fumble penalty and now all of a sudden, it's third
and twenty and you have to either punt or your
or a fourth and twenty and it's turnover on downs.
It happens way too much of the Chargers. So I
just don't trust the Chargers late in the game. I'd
look to jump maybe on on an under, I believe.
Let me see what the number is right now, I
(31:49):
would look for Yeah, I'd look for an under there
for that game. For yeah, it's forty five even actually,
so i'd look for an under there. Unders were crushing
last week. I don't know if you saw, I.
Speaker 1 (32:03):
Think twelve and four or something like twelve and.
Speaker 3 (32:05):
Four, eleven and thirty something like that. Unders are crushing
Week one, a big and you know it's funny. I
was listening to a podcast, one of the FTN podcasts,
and a reason that they said that the Unders were
hitting at such a high rate is that the sack
rates were so high. Across the league. Offensive line play
was really really bad on Sunday. Quarterback play, offensive line
play all kind of combined together. So you know, I
(32:28):
would kind of look at some of the Unders in
this one and across the league really, you know, especially
for the Thursday night game. You know, you look at
it under there too.
Speaker 1 (32:37):
We'll get to Thursday in a second. The one thing
about the Chargers, so this Tennessee defense get very ballyhooed, right.
Everybody loves Simmons and Varabel's a great coach. Cars moved
the ball up and down the field with like garbage weapons.
I mean, Rashid Shaheed whoever that is, had a monster game,
and it was like they were getting kind of I
(32:59):
think Car at three hundred yards passing, and I thought
they moved the ball well just ineptitude when it mattered,
and Car kept getting sacked. I like Chargers offensive line
better than the Saints. I like the weapons better. Although
Mike Williams is concussed already, I I guess I'm gonna
have to give it more thought. But I thought I
would definitely have a Chargers ticket in my pocket and
I'd be on them. What's that?
Speaker 2 (33:20):
Sounds like Eckler is not gonna play.
Speaker 3 (33:22):
So that's a tough one because he was really really
involved in their game plan, like big time.
Speaker 2 (33:25):
He got like twenty carries in the first three quarters.
Speaker 1 (33:28):
Yeah, no, Eckler a machine. And then of course he
kind of took some jabs at the coach this week fun.
All right, last one before Thursday and at football, let's
go Dolphins Patriots. Will Bill Belichick start zero and two?
I'm seeing Dolphins favored by three, and Miami, I think
universally looked like the best offense in the league. Two
(33:48):
has never lost to Belichick. You know, Tyreek Hill, who
just shredded J C. Jackson, looks like he's gonna maybe
line up against Christian Gonzalez, the rookie who played well,
but he's a rookie, Andreek is Tyreek. It isn't indoors,
it's outdoors. Although that doesn't see there's gonna be weather.
Are you back Intua here again or no?
Speaker 3 (34:09):
At three? That's a tough one. I would say it
really comes down to the defense. Uh for New England.
This is an underspot for me for sure, Like this
is one of the many unders of the of the day.
This is probably one that I target the most. Everybody's
so in on the Miami, on the Miami defense, on
the Miami offense. Excuse me, I actually really liked the
(34:31):
Patriots defense. They looked amazing against the Eagles. Eagles are
high flying, you know, the the volume of which that
the Eagles usually look to throw. You know, I think
that the Patriots did a really good job. The time
to throw stat that the Patriots had, it's eluding me
right now, is like it was like under two point
four seconds per throw was the lowest in the league.
(34:53):
Time to throw for for hurts before we started scrambling.
So I think that the Patriots defense is the key,
and I think I'm gonna I would go under there
really interesting.
Speaker 1 (35:05):
I'm just trying to think, like what advantage does New
England have, Like, I know they have some dudes on defense.
Jude On is very good, but Miami's got some names
defensively as well. I know they were torched in the
run game, and I'm assuming this is going to be
a Romandre Stevenson twenty five carry kind of game. Maybe
Zeke's getting ten carries, but you know, this throwing thing,
(35:27):
like they're down sixteen to nothing and Mac has got
to start chucking and duck and I think he attempted
fifty four passes. Like that's not a winning formula for
the Patriots. I think you're onto something with this under
a lot of running overall, Do you like the Patriots
this year or not? Really?
Speaker 3 (35:42):
They're like the good, bad team, if that makes sense,
Like they're good, but they're probably gonna come up short
in a lot of games. That's why I'm kind of
avoiding the plus three there, because I think that it's
really gonna come down to the last possession or two
where it could be a touchdown late, it could be
a field goal that puts it to.
Speaker 2 (36:00):
Six, et cetera.
Speaker 3 (36:02):
So you know, I think that they're gonna be competitive
with everybody, and I think that they're gonna win a
lot of close games. They're gonna lose a lot of
close games that look like an eight to nine team
if I were, if I were to guess really, because
I don't I don't believe in the quarterback play at all.
Speaker 2 (36:14):
I also don't think they should have liked o Jacoby Myers.
I love Jacoby Myers, and Jujusmuthschuster didn't look very good either,
So uh yeah, I'm gonna I'm I.
Speaker 3 (36:24):
Would target them at a bigger number. I was hoping
if they were like if they were on the road,
I would actually target them.
Speaker 2 (36:29):
I'd I'm more likely to target them because I get
maybe i'd get six, because I would like to.
Speaker 1 (36:33):
Eric Richter, New York Post great stuff, good luck with
the column, and uh you know I would say good
luck to your giants, but only this week as I'm
a Jets fan.
Speaker 2 (36:42):
Appreciate you J Mack.
Speaker 1 (36:43):
Thanks buddy,
Host
Jason McIntyre
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