February 12, 2025 • 32 mins
Fresh off the release of their new Variety Intelligence Platform research study "Production Pipelines: Film & TV in Flux," analysts Tyler Aquilina and Kaare Eriksen share their insights on how the unfolding tragedy in the heart of the entertainment industry alters the outlook for Hollywood long-form content output.
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Speaker 1 (00:07):
Welcome to another episode of Strictly Business, the podcast in
which we speak with some of the brightest minds working
in the media business today. I'm Andrew Wallenstein, chief media
analyst at Variety Intelligence Platform. One of the many hard
questions the city of Los Angeles finds itself asking, in
the wake of the devastating fires that swept through the
region last month, what will the impact be on the
(00:30):
film and TV production business was already struggling. Analyzing the
state of that business was the subject of the latest
report from Variety Intelligence Platform. So I am glad to
be joined by the authors of that report to dig
into this complicated subject. We'll be back with them in
just a moment. We are back with Tyler Aquillina and
(01:04):
Corey ericson analysts with Variety Intelligence Platform. They are the
authors of Production Pipeline TV and Film in Flux. It's
a report that when they began, it was far before
the fire started, but now with so much damage done
in the heart of Los Angeles that is the home
of the entertainment business, it's where we must start this
(01:27):
conversation with Tyler. Tyler, thanks for being with.
Speaker 2 (01:30):
Us, Thank you for having me.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
So it's a two part question for starters, lay out
for us, first the toll these fires have taken on
the business, but also what was the week in state
of production before that first spark ever burst into a flame.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
Well, yeah, you know, the immediate toll of the fires
is really on the below the line workers who crew
these projects. These are workers who were, as you alluded to,
facing a lot of struggle before this, from the pandemic
through strikes last year that shut down production for much
of the year, and now they're facing additional financial burdens,
many of them who may have you know, lost their
(02:09):
homes or possessions in the fires at a time when
work was already scarce thanks to both the post peak
TV contraction that we've seen that has resulted in a
major drop off in the levels of films and TV
shows being produced, along with the general production exodus away
from LA. And you know, that's really been That's a
(02:33):
reason why, like the impact on production immediately in LA
wasn't as substantial as you might think. Actually, only reportedly
only two major studio films were affected and had to
pause production during the fires, and that's just because of
this sustained exodus away from LA that's been going on
for you know, the last decade or so.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
So in the report, were there any particular data points
that captured this, you know, let's putting the fires aside,
that really captured for you sort of what the state
of LA's production business was like even before the fires hit.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
Yeah. So, well, let's start with the overall numbers. So
overall film and TV production remained pretty depressed last year
relative to peak TV years compared to twenty twenty two.
Last year saw about thirty percent fewer movies and shows
actively filming per week in the United States on average.
That's according to data firm research firm prod Pro, which
(03:31):
tracks how many titles are filming on a kind of
a week by week basis. As for LA specifically Film LA,
which is the nonprofit that overseas and monitors production in
the Los Angeles metro area. They recently reported that twenty
twenty four was the second lowest annual level of LA
production in terms of total shoot days, in terms of
(03:54):
you know, the total number of how many days are
film and TV projects shooting in the LA area. That
was the second lowest for a year that Film LA
has ever observed. Twenty twenty was the only one that
was lower. Of course, when the pandemic shut down occurred.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
And now you talk about the exodus, what was again
putting fires aside. We'll get back to that in the
second What was data telling us about what this exodus
was looking like?
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Essentially, what the data tells us is that production has
kind of dispersed across many different locations, reducing not eliminating,
but vastly reducing LA's status as a production hub. There
was a study by the Otis College of Art and
Design that looked at Bureau of Labor Statistics data. In
(04:42):
twenty twenty three, Los Angeles had thirty two percent of
film and TV employment in the US. By twenty twenty
three that was down to twenty seven percent, and no
one location really emerged to take over. It was really
more a matter of production has bred to various different locations.
(05:02):
George is a big one that has emerged, but you know,
their share in twenty twenty three was still just two
percent of film and TV employment. Or that's in the
Atlanta area. That's not Georgia as a whole. But you know,
Georgia has really spent a lot of money to try
to lure productions. Louisiana's another big one. But really, thirty
eight out of the fifty US states have some form
(05:23):
of financial incentive for film and TV productions. So, you know,
many states are competing and jostling to bring these projects to,
you know, their locales to try to benefit their local economies.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Now let's get back to the fires. How I poorly
I almost hesitate to use this metaphor, But does it
pour gasoline on the fires of this problem of the migration.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
It's sort of hard to tell. I mean, there's been
a lot of speculation that the costs of you know,
production insurance might rise. That's a factor, the costs of
you know, the raw materials you might need for building
sets and things like that. You know, certainly, I think
there's there's a case to be made that you know,
(06:10):
the fires may make LA seem like even less of
an attractive location to bring your you know, production to,
you know, if it's going to be unsafe or might
have to shut down because of these things. What it
has done, you know, in the immediate wake, is it's
really kind of galvanized the creative community in wanting to
keep more production in LA. There was already, California Governor
(06:33):
Gavin Newsom had proposed expanding the state's tax credit budget.
Right now, it's only three hundred and thirty million dollars
per year. Officials in the state Film Office have actually
said that they often have to turn away applicants like
people want to film in California, but the financial incentives
are not available to them because of the cap. So
Newsom has proposed expanding that to seven hundred and fifty
(06:55):
million dollars, and the creative community now many of them
have signed a petition calling for it to be uncapped
for the next three years, so there would actually be
no limit on the tax credit budget if that were approved. Now,
I don't know how likely that is. Obviously, the legislation
to uncap it would have to be introduced. I think
the seven hundred and fifty million dollar proposal is now
(07:15):
in the wake of the fires, actually almost certain to pass,
but it's not clear how much of an impact that's
going to have. It might keep slightly more production in
the state, but it's really not going to be enough
to build LA back to the levels that it had historically.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
Now you also shine a light in this report on
the state of the UK and production levels there. What's
going on overseas, it's really a similar thing in the
UK that's happening in la. You know, the UK is
another area where it's kind of expensive to produce film
and TV, which has caused productions to migrate elsewhere in Europe.
(07:52):
Eastern European countries have really emerged as big production hubs
in the last several years. The Czech Republic and Hungary
are especially popular. There's some really skilled crews there and
their financial incentives are pretty advantageous, and also the cost
of labor and materials tend to be lower there, like
your dollar can go further, whereas that's really not the
(08:15):
case in the UK. You know, it's obviously it's still
a very popular The UK is still a very popular location.
There are a lot of, you know, very popular titles
that come out of there. Fool Me Once in Baby
Reindeer where two of the most popular shows on Netflix
last year. Those were both UK imports.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
But you know, really the UK's is facing a similar contraction.
They are. The government there has recently reformed its own
financial incentive program to really try to be more advantageous
toward independent productions. I think lower budget productions have a
more kind of advantageous structure built in now. So really,
this is something that's happening across the world. These you know,
(08:54):
production hubs that have been the centers of film and
TV for so many years are kind of struggling to
hold on to these productions.
Speaker 1 (09:02):
So how does this relate to You have data in
here about overall content spending levels across the biggest media companies,
the biggest tech companies that are in this space as well.
What patterns are we seeing.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
Well, it's an interesting case, you know, of looking at
kind of the big picture and how that trickles down
to you know, ground level decisions. You know, we've heard
over and over again that these major media companies are
becoming more cost conscious. That's very true. Ampere Analysis just
put out a new forecast projecting that total global content
(09:42):
spend by all the major companies will increase by only
zero point four percent this year. That's one billion dollars
from two hundred and forty seven billion dollars in twenty
twenty four to now and expected two hundred and forty
eight in twenty twenty five. Disney just announced that they're
actually reducing what they're expecting to spend on content this year.
(10:02):
They had projected twenty four billion. Now they're projecting twenty
three billion dollars, which is about in line with what
they spent in twenty twenty four. Netflix is only modestly
increasing what they're spending this year from about seventeen billion
to about eighteen billion, I believe. And you know, the
effect that has is that, you know, when these budgets
(10:22):
are being managed, you know this this carefully, your dollar
on you know, a project by project basis has to
go a lot further and that can cause you to,
you know, when you're looking at where to produce something,
say well, you know it's maybe maybe it's too expensive
to shoot in LA or the UK. Where where can
our dollar go further?
Speaker 1 (10:39):
Sure, but you know, to bring us full circle, it
just makes me wonder about the challenges of shooting back
in Los Angeles.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
Yeah, I mean there are certainly, Like I was saying,
I think there are further reforms than just increasing the
tax credit budget that would need to happen in order
to reinvigorate production in the LA area. You know, I
think an underdiscussed factor in this is a permit fees
It's really expensive to shoot in LA. It's more than
nine hundred dollars just to apply for one permit through
(11:10):
Film LA that only covers up to seven days of shooting,
that only covers up to five locations. So if you're
planning to do like a major, large scale film production
in Los Angeles, you know, those fees can really add up,
especially for projects with tighter budgets. So there's really a
lot of factors that need to be looked at in
order to figure out, you know, how can we economically
(11:30):
incentivize production to return.
Speaker 1 (11:32):
To this area. Is that being looked at?
Speaker 2 (11:37):
Certainly? You know, as I said, the creative community is
really banging the drum for it. This petition that I
mentioned earlier has also called on studios and streamers to
pledge at least ten percent more production in LA over
the next three years. But we're really still in very
early phases of you know, dealing with the wake of
the fires and figuring out how the industry is going
(11:59):
to respond to this. I think it's it's going to
be a long process of seeing really how the industry
mobilizes and if it mobilizes to actually you know, do
the work necessary to restore production to the region.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
The title of this report is, you know, production pipeline,
film and TV in flux. So what exactly when when
we talk about this business being in flux, what are
the pieces of the production puzzle that we're talking about
that we're in flux. I just want to sort of
underline that for the readers.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
You know, I, you know, I don't want to be
too high falutint here, but we're really talking about every
phase of the process. You know, every phase of creating
a film or a TV show requires just many, many
decisions about how you're going to shoot it, where you're
going to shoot it, when you're going to shoot it,
you know, where you can place it to reach its
ideal audience, Whether you're going to send a movie straight
(12:59):
to streaming, how much of a theatrical window you're going
to give it. You know, all of these processes are
really in flux right now. As we've discussed, there's a
lot going on in terms of production moving from these
hubs to other locations. There's a rethinking of distribution going
on in terms of there are more movies going to
theaters now, the kind of straight to streaming era of
(13:21):
filmmaking is not entirely winding down, but certainly it's being
reduced from what we've seen in the past. So the
entire industry is really recalibrating and rethinking where's the money going,
where's the content going, and how is it flowing through
these various pipelines.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
Well, we will talk more about the film pipelines when
we come back and talk a bit with Corey Ericsson.
Tyler Aquallina. Thanks for walking through the report. Thank you,
and we are back with another of the variety Intelligence
(13:58):
platform analysts, Corey eric Sincore. You worked on the film
portion of this report, and you've obviously been following the
space very closely. Before we even just dig into the
data stuff, I'm just curious to get your impressions as
we sit here in early February about the state of
the box office. You know, I guess a little bit
(14:21):
of month in here in twenty twenty five. How are
you feeling about the health of the US box office
right now?
Speaker 3 (14:28):
From this year alone? There's still you know, a lot
to come throughout the year. January is typically you know,
a less active month for the box office. You have
a lot of carryovers from the holiday season that are
still drawing in audiences as well as a lot of
you know, awards focused releases starting to open up the
(14:48):
amount of theaters they play in, so it's not the
best time to release, you know, new movies. I think
what is already forming what could be the normality of
this year after last year, is that one film, dog
Man from Universal, an animated family oriented film, not exactly
(15:09):
the biggest film, you know, it's not really tied to
a huge film franchise, but that opened to a little
over thirty million and basically made it the best film
of the month in one weekend. So clearly animation is
still going very very strong. The bigger animated movies that
you know, we're playing in theaters at the sort of
January where Mufasa the Lion King from Disney and Sonic
(15:31):
the Hedgehog three from Paramount, so you know, those are
still towering over a film like dog Man. But clearly
the trend of twenty twenty four with animated films really
drawing in the biggest audiences, you know, even before Inside
Out two took over the summer, I expect that's going
to continue throughout the year.
Speaker 1 (15:52):
Okay, I mean once stat that did jump out at
me looking into twenty twenty five, was your slide of
a theatrical film output, a pretty solid rebound in the
total domestic releases wide release, I should say, one hundred
(16:13):
and ten titles over ninety five, just ninety five in
twenty twenty four. That's a pretty solid rebound. What do
you account for that?
Speaker 3 (16:21):
And that's what's definitely estimated for this year at the
two thousand screen level. You know, it's not too difficult
to figure out the difference there between last year twenty
twenty four was a little under one hundred, but you know,
it's the impact of the strikes in twenty twenty three.
Production got pushed back, some releases were delayed from twenty
(16:42):
twenty four to twenty twenty five, and you know, throughout
twenty twenty four there was a lot of catch up
with you know, film shoots that had to take you know,
nearly half a year off. So twenty twenty five is
simply resembling what you know, a typical post pandemic year
looks like. And it's still well, at least for this year,
where there's going to be a little bit more than
(17:03):
we saw in you know, twenty twenty three. For instance.
But you know, this is the continue to scent out
of the COVID years, with studios returning to fairly robust slates.
You know, at least, you know, the current rate is
at least ten each but most of the studios have
a bit more than that at the wide level. So
it's nothing, it's nothing too complicated. It's just the reality
(17:24):
of what happens when the industry has to take time
off from production and now they're catching back up.
Speaker 1 (17:32):
Give us your read on twenty twenty four, which from
my perspective looked like you know, I think when you
look at that top line number, you're like, oh, well,
you know, it didn't measure up to the previous year.
But I think also you could say probably did better
than a lot of people than expected it would.
Speaker 3 (17:52):
Of course, yeah, it was a given last year that
at you know, the pure numbers level, it was never
going to match twenty twenty three just because of the
shrunken output. But as we talked about with Julie Sesnovich
over Illuminate last year, she was still very very optimistic
about you know, none of the big, big franchise releases
(18:15):
that were coming up, but you know, a lot of
you know, stuff that was a little bit more of
a gamble but proved to gross really well, like Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice,
and of course, you know the Wicked adaptation that did
tremendously well over Thanksgiving window. And by the end of
twenty twenty four, you know, the total domestic number really
wasn't far behind twenty twenty three. I think it was
only like a little less than four hundred million short.
(18:37):
So twenty twenty four did end on a pretty strong
note all things considered. Does that mean there's going to
be a repeat of that in twenty twenty five and
we're going to get, you know, the best number yet
since the pandemic. That's not necessarily a given, just because
even if you know, Disney is back in full force
with a robust slate full of franchises, a lot of
(19:00):
the other studios are showing a bit more diverse lates
this time around. Warner Brothers in particular, is not at
all heavy on the franchises. They have a lot of
more tour driven films hitting theaters, and a lot of
those films are also they have quite big budgets, like
Bond Juno, who won Best picture for Parasite his follow up,
Mickey seventeen, that's said to be around one hundred and
(19:21):
fifty million budget, and you know, that's a completely original
sci fi film. So there are still quite a bit
of gambles on the calendar. And I think the test
for this year versus last year is going to be
do we get a lot more of those surprise hits
that you know, help fill out the numbers that would
otherwise be you know, filled if we had a slate
(19:43):
as franchise driven as twenty nineteen.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
For instance, we were talking in the first half of
the conversation, Tyler was referencing the difference between a theatrical
output and the output for films on the streaming side
of things. It seems like there's been a clear shift
in momentum pulling out of the streaming side. What do
(20:08):
you account for that shift?
Speaker 3 (20:10):
I mean, what I count for that shit is just
you can't compete with Netflix on the streaming output side.
They you know, between their original films, you know that
they fully develop and produce themselves their acquired films, and
then all these international films that go you know, straight
to Netflix after playing you know, a very small theatrical
release for one weekend. You know, Netflix is still consistently
(20:33):
putting out, you know, around two hundred films each year
that you can't watch anywhere else but Netflix. So there's
really no point in competing with that on any other streamer.
I mean, Prime still has a good number of films,
but obviously they're not really even seen as Prime anymore.
As much as Amazon MGM. You know, they're still trying
to get most of their theaters that are developed through MGM,
(20:56):
most of the films developed through MGM out into theaters. So,
you know, especially if Netflix is deciding it's not going
to be spending you know, two hundred or even three
hundred million on films anymore as of Dan Lynn replacing
Scott Stuber, if they're going to maintain their output, it
just doesn't make a ton of sense for any of
(21:17):
the other studios in the space to try to, you know,
even matter fraction of that you have theaters now, people
are still going to the movies. It's never going to
be what it was before the pandemic, but people still
go to movies. You can still make as much money
back as you can try to there versus putting it
all out in streaming.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
First, of course you reference Dan Lynn. He did strike
an interesting and some might would some might have said
unexpected deal on Narnia to carve out a theatrical distribution
of what was it a week in theaters?
Speaker 3 (21:53):
I actually think it's longer than its going to be
four weeks. Yeah, so it's uh, that's going to come
through Gretit is of course known for Lady Bird, Little Women,
and obviously.
Speaker 1 (22:04):
Barbie Barbie movie.
Speaker 3 (22:05):
Yeah, so yeah, that was a condition for her in
setting up that deal with a Narnia film. She wants,
you know, an exclusive theatrical release. So they're going to
commit to four weeks for that, which is going to
be longer than their last theatrical test, which was the
Knives Out sequel Glass Onion that you know, it was
in theaters for more than a week. I think that
(22:27):
was ultimately around two weeks.
Speaker 1 (22:29):
But what is the significance of that deal? Does that
tell us Netflix is perhaps is this an outlier or
is this Netflix telling the community like, all right, maybe
we are gonna loosen our standards when it comes to
this supposed hard line on theaters for now.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
I'd say it's an outlier simply because I think they
really just wanted Greta Gerwick. You know, they wanted to
have a flashy director attached to what. You know, after
this Electric State movie comes out in March, is going
to be sort of their next you know, massively budgeted
project project. But in this day and age, it just
(23:07):
doesn't make sense to commit that much money to a
film and not have it play in theaters. You know,
why not utilize every single revenue stream. But again, that's
just you know, one movie in a hopeful new franchise
for Netflix, and you know they're not even saying, Okay,
you know, we're going to put it out in theaters
exclusively and see how long that goes for They're already
(23:29):
they already seem to be putting a hard limit on
it with this you know, four week IMAX release. But
you know, it's a step up for sure. It's just
it's a step up we won't see until next year
at the very least, assuming you know, the project stays
on time.
Speaker 1 (23:42):
Another data point you feature in the Production Pipelines report
from Variety Intelligence Platform, which we just put out in
early February, was a look at the so called dependency
on film franchises what did you charge out in terms
of the latest trends. I guess what I'm saying is
(24:04):
how dependent is the industry on franchises these days? And
what will twenty twenty five tell us in terms of
that dependency.
Speaker 3 (24:14):
It's still quite dependent. Looking at what's currently scheduled and
you know, excluding films that are expected for twenty twenty
five but don't have a release date yet. The you
know number I got was around fifty four percent of
the current studio slates are tied to franchises some degree,
whether that's a new sequel and you know, a well
(24:36):
known franchise, a reboot or remake of something that came before.
It's definitely you know, nothing much has changed there. This
is going to be a little bit more of a
franchise a year than twenty twenty four, but not a ton.
What's most interesting is, you know, the attempt the continued
(24:57):
attempts to take old ip we haven't seen for some time,
and you know, try to make something new out of them,
like we saw with Twisters last year in Beatlejuice Beetlejuice
last year. This time around, it's really Sony that's taking
the biggest gambal on that regard, they're launching a film
called twenty eight Years Later, which is basically a reboot
sequel to twenty twos twenty eight days Later. They have
(25:18):
the same team from that, that's director Danny Boyle and
screenwriter Alex Garland, who is you know, at this point
more well known for films like Civil War that he's
directed himself. So they've got Killian Murphy back after he
won Best Actor for Oppenheimer. So you know, it's a
project that has a lot of flare. But they're not
even waiting to see how that film does in the summer.
(25:40):
They already greenlit it as a trilogy, so a second
film has essentially already been shot and it's slated for
January twenty twenty six. And I think the first film
has a budget of around seventy million, so you know,
they're not not taking it seriously, and they are giving
it a heftier budget than you typically see for horror films.
But at the same time, there is you know, something
(26:02):
to be said there for wanting to create a new
franchise that you know is under one hundred million. I think,
you know, Sony recognizes that it can't solely rely on
its little chunk of Marvel with the Tom Holland Spider
Man movies. One thing that could be driving that is
that their own attempt at you know, their own Spider
Man universe with these movies based around villains like the
(26:24):
three Venom movies and then of course Morbus and Madam
Webb that hasn't really taken off of them and the
way they wanted it to. The new Venom film that
came out last fall, did you know, it didn't do terribly,
not like Madam Webb and Morbius, but definitely not as
well as the twenty twenty one Venom film. So I
think they're ready to try to figure out a new
(26:45):
path forward for franchises that is much more economical, but
you know, can still kick off with a lot of flair,
and you know, if they are willing to green light
a trilogy instead of just you know, one of these
twenty eight years later films, I think, you know, that's
a good example of their confidence there.
Speaker 1 (27:00):
And just to go back to that stat you offered
earlier about the fifty four percent of the twenty twenty
five slate being franchise associated back in twenty twenty one,
would be the only time, going back on the six
years that you charted where there was a higher number,
which was fifty seven percent. Just throwing that out there.
Speaker 3 (27:22):
Yeah, that one. I think that was mostly because of
the sheer amount of films from twenty twenty that were delayed.
Speaker 1 (27:29):
I'd be remiss not alluding to the recently concluded Sundance
Film Festival, because we also have a slide from you
about the festivals, and so I was curious as you
looked at the Sundance Festival that just completed, there was
(27:52):
a lot of chatter about slow buying and although I
think it picked up a bit towards the end, any
impressions as you looked past the Sundance that just concluded,
did it conform with your expectations? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (28:08):
At the you know, number level of the films that
you know, debut at the festival that hasn't changed. That's consistently,
you know, like been between eighty and one hundred in
the past few years. But yeah, as you pointed out,
and as you know, the press was really noting the
you know, there weren't a lot of flashy buys coming
out of it like there used to be. I think
one thing that could be driving that is just you know,
(28:31):
maybe the streamers are being a little bit more economical.
Netflix in the past has of course bought films, you know,
at the twenty million level of the twenty five million level,
but maybe this time, you know, if there's a strategy
to really bring those costs down on the film side,
that could be applying to the acquisition front as well. Obviously,
if you know, they don't get a lot of Oscars
(28:51):
from Amelia Perez this Oscar season, that could influence that
as well. One of the notable buys that did sort
of come out right out of the gate was Neon
scooping up yet another horror film. They bought this film
called Together. That made a little bit of a splash there,
and like going back to what I was saying about
(29:12):
horror and like Sony taking a chance on a horror franchise,
that genre alone is still such a big draw at
the box office that I expect you're going to see
a lot more acquisitions on the horror side at you know,
the festivals throughout the year, because you know, Neon already
had I think at least six films scheduled on their
slate with actual dates or twenty to twenty five that
(29:33):
you know, can definitely be considered horror movies. So if
they hit the festival and almost immediately come back with
another film, that's showing a lot about their thinking, because
Neon isn't just you know, they don't just put out
neat horror films. They also put out quite a lot
of foreign language films. They have a knack for films
than when the Palm dor can uh Anora for instance,
(29:54):
which is you know, one of their front runners for
this Oscar season, that's a Neon film and that also
took on Palm d'Or So. The fact that studio is
bridging such an interesting gap between stuff that plays very
very well with film audiences and you know, the other
Christige fair they're known for, I think it's a good
indication that festivals could get a lot more genre centric.
Speaker 1 (30:16):
You mentioned the Oscars, You mentioned in Nora anything else
as the Oscars approach that you're going to be looking
at as the award show season is in high gear.
Speaker 3 (30:27):
A twenty four is the Brutalist that's pretty front of mind,
not just because it's a front runner for awards, but
it's actually been doing pretty decently at the box office.
Initially that had a very small release, you know, over
the holiday season, was playing in just a few theaters
on seventy millimeter. I checked that out on Christmas and
that is a very very long movie. It's over three hours,
(30:50):
and it's from a director who is you know, becoming
increasingly lauded, but isn't Martin Scorsese, who I think can
get away a bit easier with putting films out his
name again, Uh, pretty Corbett right, Yeah, So that expanded
in January now has about twelve million domestically, which you know,
not a ton compared to what most of the studio
(31:13):
pictures draw in, but is still I think evidence of
you know, half the strength of A twenty four's brand,
but also that there is still a willingness to see
movies with a lot of praise behind them, you know,
no matter their length, if people feel they'll get a
decent theatrical experience out of it.
Speaker 1 (31:31):
Well, barely a month into the calendar, but plenty, plenty
of trends to be watching across the entertainment industry, and
you could do worse. And check out the Variety Intelligence
platform latest report on production pipelines, film and TV in Flux.
My fellow Variety Intelligence platform analysts Tyler Aquillina and Corey
(31:55):
Ericksson did some great work that you got to check out,
and I thank them both for being here.
Speaker 3 (32:00):
Thank you, Thanks for listening.
Speaker 2 (32:06):
Be sure to leave us a review at Apple Podcasts
or Amazon Music. We love to hear from listeners.
Speaker 3 (32:12):
Please go to Variety dot com and sign up for
the free weekly Strictly Business newsletter, and don't forget to
tune in next week for another episode of Strictly Business
Welcome to another episode of Strictly Business, the podcast in
which we speak with some of the brightest minds working
in the media business today. I'm Andrew Wallenstein, chief media
analyst at Variety Intelligence Platform. One of the many hard
questions the city of Los Angeles finds itself asking, in
the wake of the devastating fires that swept through the
region last month, what will the impact be on the
(00:30):
film and TV production business was already struggling. Analyzing the
state of that business was the subject of the latest
report from Variety Intelligence Platform. So I am glad to
be joined by the authors of that report to dig
into this complicated subject. We'll be back with them in
just a moment. We are back with Tyler Aquillina and
(01:04):
Corey ericson analysts with Variety Intelligence Platform. They are the
authors of Production Pipeline TV and Film in Flux. It's
a report that when they began, it was far before
the fire started, but now with so much damage done
in the heart of Los Angeles that is the home
of the entertainment business, it's where we must start this
(01:27):
conversation with Tyler. Tyler, thanks for being with.
Speaker 2 (01:30):
Us, Thank you for having me.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
So it's a two part question for starters, lay out
for us, first the toll these fires have taken on
the business, but also what was the week in state
of production before that first spark ever burst into a flame.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
Well, yeah, you know, the immediate toll of the fires
is really on the below the line workers who crew
these projects. These are workers who were, as you alluded to,
facing a lot of struggle before this, from the pandemic
through strikes last year that shut down production for much
of the year, and now they're facing additional financial burdens,
many of them who may have you know, lost their
(02:09):
homes or possessions in the fires at a time when
work was already scarce thanks to both the post peak
TV contraction that we've seen that has resulted in a
major drop off in the levels of films and TV
shows being produced, along with the general production exodus away
from LA. And you know, that's really been That's a
(02:33):
reason why, like the impact on production immediately in LA
wasn't as substantial as you might think. Actually, only reportedly
only two major studio films were affected and had to
pause production during the fires, and that's just because of
this sustained exodus away from LA that's been going on
for you know, the last decade or so.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
So in the report, were there any particular data points
that captured this, you know, let's putting the fires aside,
that really captured for you sort of what the state
of LA's production business was like even before the fires hit.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
Yeah. So, well, let's start with the overall numbers. So
overall film and TV production remained pretty depressed last year
relative to peak TV years compared to twenty twenty two.
Last year saw about thirty percent fewer movies and shows
actively filming per week in the United States on average.
That's according to data firm research firm prod Pro, which
(03:31):
tracks how many titles are filming on a kind of
a week by week basis. As for LA specifically Film LA,
which is the nonprofit that overseas and monitors production in
the Los Angeles metro area. They recently reported that twenty
twenty four was the second lowest annual level of LA
production in terms of total shoot days, in terms of
(03:54):
you know, the total number of how many days are
film and TV projects shooting in the LA area. That
was the second lowest for a year that Film LA
has ever observed. Twenty twenty was the only one that
was lower. Of course, when the pandemic shut down occurred.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
And now you talk about the exodus, what was again
putting fires aside. We'll get back to that in the
second What was data telling us about what this exodus
was looking like?
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Essentially, what the data tells us is that production has
kind of dispersed across many different locations, reducing not eliminating,
but vastly reducing LA's status as a production hub. There
was a study by the Otis College of Art and
Design that looked at Bureau of Labor Statistics data. In
(04:42):
twenty twenty three, Los Angeles had thirty two percent of
film and TV employment in the US. By twenty twenty
three that was down to twenty seven percent, and no
one location really emerged to take over. It was really
more a matter of production has bred to various different locations.
(05:02):
George is a big one that has emerged, but you know,
their share in twenty twenty three was still just two
percent of film and TV employment. Or that's in the
Atlanta area. That's not Georgia as a whole. But you know,
Georgia has really spent a lot of money to try
to lure productions. Louisiana's another big one. But really, thirty
eight out of the fifty US states have some form
(05:23):
of financial incentive for film and TV productions. So, you know,
many states are competing and jostling to bring these projects to,
you know, their locales to try to benefit their local economies.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Now let's get back to the fires. How I poorly
I almost hesitate to use this metaphor, But does it
pour gasoline on the fires of this problem of the migration.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
It's sort of hard to tell. I mean, there's been
a lot of speculation that the costs of you know,
production insurance might rise. That's a factor, the costs of
you know, the raw materials you might need for building
sets and things like that. You know, certainly, I think
there's there's a case to be made that you know,
(06:10):
the fires may make LA seem like even less of
an attractive location to bring your you know, production to,
you know, if it's going to be unsafe or might
have to shut down because of these things. What it
has done, you know, in the immediate wake, is it's
really kind of galvanized the creative community in wanting to
keep more production in LA. There was already, California Governor
(06:33):
Gavin Newsom had proposed expanding the state's tax credit budget.
Right now, it's only three hundred and thirty million dollars
per year. Officials in the state Film Office have actually
said that they often have to turn away applicants like
people want to film in California, but the financial incentives
are not available to them because of the cap. So
Newsom has proposed expanding that to seven hundred and fifty
(06:55):
million dollars, and the creative community now many of them
have signed a petition calling for it to be uncapped
for the next three years, so there would actually be
no limit on the tax credit budget if that were approved. Now,
I don't know how likely that is. Obviously, the legislation
to uncap it would have to be introduced. I think
the seven hundred and fifty million dollar proposal is now
(07:15):
in the wake of the fires, actually almost certain to pass,
but it's not clear how much of an impact that's
going to have. It might keep slightly more production in
the state, but it's really not going to be enough
to build LA back to the levels that it had historically.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
Now you also shine a light in this report on
the state of the UK and production levels there. What's
going on overseas, it's really a similar thing in the
UK that's happening in la. You know, the UK is
another area where it's kind of expensive to produce film
and TV, which has caused productions to migrate elsewhere in Europe.
(07:52):
Eastern European countries have really emerged as big production hubs
in the last several years. The Czech Republic and Hungary
are especially popular. There's some really skilled crews there and
their financial incentives are pretty advantageous, and also the cost
of labor and materials tend to be lower there, like
your dollar can go further, whereas that's really not the
(08:15):
case in the UK. You know, it's obviously it's still
a very popular The UK is still a very popular location.
There are a lot of, you know, very popular titles
that come out of there. Fool Me Once in Baby
Reindeer where two of the most popular shows on Netflix
last year. Those were both UK imports.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
But you know, really the UK's is facing a similar contraction.
They are. The government there has recently reformed its own
financial incentive program to really try to be more advantageous
toward independent productions. I think lower budget productions have a
more kind of advantageous structure built in now. So really,
this is something that's happening across the world. These you know,
(08:54):
production hubs that have been the centers of film and
TV for so many years are kind of struggling to
hold on to these productions.
Speaker 1 (09:02):
So how does this relate to You have data in
here about overall content spending levels across the biggest media companies,
the biggest tech companies that are in this space as well.
What patterns are we seeing.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
Well, it's an interesting case, you know, of looking at
kind of the big picture and how that trickles down
to you know, ground level decisions. You know, we've heard
over and over again that these major media companies are
becoming more cost conscious. That's very true. Ampere Analysis just
put out a new forecast projecting that total global content
(09:42):
spend by all the major companies will increase by only
zero point four percent this year. That's one billion dollars
from two hundred and forty seven billion dollars in twenty
twenty four to now and expected two hundred and forty
eight in twenty twenty five. Disney just announced that they're
actually reducing what they're expecting to spend on content this year.
(10:02):
They had projected twenty four billion. Now they're projecting twenty
three billion dollars, which is about in line with what
they spent in twenty twenty four. Netflix is only modestly
increasing what they're spending this year from about seventeen billion
to about eighteen billion, I believe. And you know, the
effect that has is that, you know, when these budgets
(10:22):
are being managed, you know this this carefully, your dollar
on you know, a project by project basis has to
go a lot further and that can cause you to,
you know, when you're looking at where to produce something,
say well, you know it's maybe maybe it's too expensive
to shoot in LA or the UK. Where where can
our dollar go further?
Speaker 1 (10:39):
Sure, but you know, to bring us full circle, it
just makes me wonder about the challenges of shooting back
in Los Angeles.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
Yeah, I mean there are certainly, Like I was saying,
I think there are further reforms than just increasing the
tax credit budget that would need to happen in order
to reinvigorate production in the LA area. You know, I
think an underdiscussed factor in this is a permit fees
It's really expensive to shoot in LA. It's more than
nine hundred dollars just to apply for one permit through
(11:10):
Film LA that only covers up to seven days of shooting,
that only covers up to five locations. So if you're
planning to do like a major, large scale film production
in Los Angeles, you know, those fees can really add up,
especially for projects with tighter budgets. So there's really a
lot of factors that need to be looked at in
order to figure out, you know, how can we economically
(11:30):
incentivize production to return.
Speaker 1 (11:32):
To this area. Is that being looked at?
Speaker 2 (11:37):
Certainly? You know, as I said, the creative community is
really banging the drum for it. This petition that I
mentioned earlier has also called on studios and streamers to
pledge at least ten percent more production in LA over
the next three years. But we're really still in very
early phases of you know, dealing with the wake of
the fires and figuring out how the industry is going
(11:59):
to respond to this. I think it's it's going to
be a long process of seeing really how the industry
mobilizes and if it mobilizes to actually you know, do
the work necessary to restore production to the region.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
The title of this report is, you know, production pipeline,
film and TV in flux. So what exactly when when
we talk about this business being in flux, what are
the pieces of the production puzzle that we're talking about
that we're in flux. I just want to sort of
underline that for the readers.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
You know, I, you know, I don't want to be
too high falutint here, but we're really talking about every
phase of the process. You know, every phase of creating
a film or a TV show requires just many, many
decisions about how you're going to shoot it, where you're
going to shoot it, when you're going to shoot it,
you know, where you can place it to reach its
ideal audience, Whether you're going to send a movie straight
(12:59):
to streaming, how much of a theatrical window you're going
to give it. You know, all of these processes are
really in flux right now. As we've discussed, there's a
lot going on in terms of production moving from these
hubs to other locations. There's a rethinking of distribution going
on in terms of there are more movies going to
theaters now, the kind of straight to streaming era of
(13:21):
filmmaking is not entirely winding down, but certainly it's being
reduced from what we've seen in the past. So the
entire industry is really recalibrating and rethinking where's the money going,
where's the content going, and how is it flowing through
these various pipelines.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
Well, we will talk more about the film pipelines when
we come back and talk a bit with Corey Ericsson.
Tyler Aquallina. Thanks for walking through the report. Thank you,
and we are back with another of the variety Intelligence
(13:58):
platform analysts, Corey eric Sincore. You worked on the film
portion of this report, and you've obviously been following the
space very closely. Before we even just dig into the
data stuff, I'm just curious to get your impressions as
we sit here in early February about the state of
the box office. You know, I guess a little bit
(14:21):
of month in here in twenty twenty five. How are
you feeling about the health of the US box office
right now?
Speaker 3 (14:28):
From this year alone? There's still you know, a lot
to come throughout the year. January is typically you know,
a less active month for the box office. You have
a lot of carryovers from the holiday season that are
still drawing in audiences as well as a lot of
you know, awards focused releases starting to open up the
(14:48):
amount of theaters they play in, so it's not the
best time to release, you know, new movies. I think
what is already forming what could be the normality of
this year after last year, is that one film, dog
Man from Universal, an animated family oriented film, not exactly
(15:09):
the biggest film, you know, it's not really tied to
a huge film franchise, but that opened to a little
over thirty million and basically made it the best film
of the month in one weekend. So clearly animation is
still going very very strong. The bigger animated movies that
you know, we're playing in theaters at the sort of
January where Mufasa the Lion King from Disney and Sonic
(15:31):
the Hedgehog three from Paramount, so you know, those are
still towering over a film like dog Man. But clearly
the trend of twenty twenty four with animated films really
drawing in the biggest audiences, you know, even before Inside
Out two took over the summer, I expect that's going
to continue throughout the year.
Speaker 1 (15:52):
Okay, I mean once stat that did jump out at
me looking into twenty twenty five, was your slide of
a theatrical film output, a pretty solid rebound in the
total domestic releases wide release, I should say, one hundred
(16:13):
and ten titles over ninety five, just ninety five in
twenty twenty four. That's a pretty solid rebound. What do
you account for that?
Speaker 3 (16:21):
And that's what's definitely estimated for this year at the
two thousand screen level. You know, it's not too difficult
to figure out the difference there between last year twenty
twenty four was a little under one hundred, but you know,
it's the impact of the strikes in twenty twenty three.
Production got pushed back, some releases were delayed from twenty
(16:42):
twenty four to twenty twenty five, and you know, throughout
twenty twenty four there was a lot of catch up
with you know, film shoots that had to take you know,
nearly half a year off. So twenty twenty five is
simply resembling what you know, a typical post pandemic year
looks like. And it's still well, at least for this year,
where there's going to be a little bit more than
(17:03):
we saw in you know, twenty twenty three. For instance.
But you know, this is the continue to scent out
of the COVID years, with studios returning to fairly robust slates.
You know, at least, you know, the current rate is
at least ten each but most of the studios have
a bit more than that at the wide level. So
it's nothing, it's nothing too complicated. It's just the reality
(17:24):
of what happens when the industry has to take time
off from production and now they're catching back up.
Speaker 1 (17:32):
Give us your read on twenty twenty four, which from
my perspective looked like you know, I think when you
look at that top line number, you're like, oh, well,
you know, it didn't measure up to the previous year.
But I think also you could say probably did better
than a lot of people than expected it would.
Speaker 3 (17:52):
Of course, yeah, it was a given last year that
at you know, the pure numbers level, it was never
going to match twenty twenty three just because of the
shrunken output. But as we talked about with Julie Sesnovich
over Illuminate last year, she was still very very optimistic
about you know, none of the big, big franchise releases
(18:15):
that were coming up, but you know, a lot of
you know, stuff that was a little bit more of
a gamble but proved to gross really well, like Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice,
and of course, you know the Wicked adaptation that did
tremendously well over Thanksgiving window. And by the end of
twenty twenty four, you know, the total domestic number really
wasn't far behind twenty twenty three. I think it was
only like a little less than four hundred million short.
(18:37):
So twenty twenty four did end on a pretty strong
note all things considered. Does that mean there's going to
be a repeat of that in twenty twenty five and
we're going to get, you know, the best number yet
since the pandemic. That's not necessarily a given, just because
even if you know, Disney is back in full force
with a robust slate full of franchises, a lot of
(19:00):
the other studios are showing a bit more diverse lates
this time around. Warner Brothers in particular, is not at
all heavy on the franchises. They have a lot of
more tour driven films hitting theaters, and a lot of
those films are also they have quite big budgets, like
Bond Juno, who won Best picture for Parasite his follow up,
Mickey seventeen, that's said to be around one hundred and
(19:21):
fifty million budget, and you know, that's a completely original
sci fi film. So there are still quite a bit
of gambles on the calendar. And I think the test
for this year versus last year is going to be
do we get a lot more of those surprise hits
that you know, help fill out the numbers that would
otherwise be you know, filled if we had a slate
(19:43):
as franchise driven as twenty nineteen.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
For instance, we were talking in the first half of
the conversation, Tyler was referencing the difference between a theatrical
output and the output for films on the streaming side
of things. It seems like there's been a clear shift
in momentum pulling out of the streaming side. What do
(20:08):
you account for that shift?
Speaker 3 (20:10):
I mean, what I count for that shit is just
you can't compete with Netflix on the streaming output side.
They you know, between their original films, you know that
they fully develop and produce themselves their acquired films, and
then all these international films that go you know, straight
to Netflix after playing you know, a very small theatrical
release for one weekend. You know, Netflix is still consistently
(20:33):
putting out, you know, around two hundred films each year
that you can't watch anywhere else but Netflix. So there's
really no point in competing with that on any other streamer.
I mean, Prime still has a good number of films,
but obviously they're not really even seen as Prime anymore.
As much as Amazon MGM. You know, they're still trying
to get most of their theaters that are developed through MGM,
(20:56):
most of the films developed through MGM out into theaters. So,
you know, especially if Netflix is deciding it's not going
to be spending you know, two hundred or even three
hundred million on films anymore as of Dan Lynn replacing
Scott Stuber, if they're going to maintain their output, it
just doesn't make a ton of sense for any of
(21:17):
the other studios in the space to try to, you know,
even matter fraction of that you have theaters now, people
are still going to the movies. It's never going to
be what it was before the pandemic, but people still
go to movies. You can still make as much money
back as you can try to there versus putting it
all out in streaming.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
First, of course you reference Dan Lynn. He did strike
an interesting and some might would some might have said
unexpected deal on Narnia to carve out a theatrical distribution
of what was it a week in theaters?
Speaker 3 (21:53):
I actually think it's longer than its going to be
four weeks. Yeah, so it's uh, that's going to come
through Gretit is of course known for Lady Bird, Little Women,
and obviously.
Speaker 1 (22:04):
Barbie Barbie movie.
Speaker 3 (22:05):
Yeah, so yeah, that was a condition for her in
setting up that deal with a Narnia film. She wants,
you know, an exclusive theatrical release. So they're going to
commit to four weeks for that, which is going to
be longer than their last theatrical test, which was the
Knives Out sequel Glass Onion that you know, it was
in theaters for more than a week. I think that
(22:27):
was ultimately around two weeks.
Speaker 1 (22:29):
But what is the significance of that deal? Does that
tell us Netflix is perhaps is this an outlier or
is this Netflix telling the community like, all right, maybe
we are gonna loosen our standards when it comes to
this supposed hard line on theaters for now.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
I'd say it's an outlier simply because I think they
really just wanted Greta Gerwick. You know, they wanted to
have a flashy director attached to what. You know, after
this Electric State movie comes out in March, is going
to be sort of their next you know, massively budgeted
project project. But in this day and age, it just
(23:07):
doesn't make sense to commit that much money to a
film and not have it play in theaters. You know,
why not utilize every single revenue stream. But again, that's
just you know, one movie in a hopeful new franchise
for Netflix, and you know they're not even saying, Okay,
you know, we're going to put it out in theaters
exclusively and see how long that goes for They're already
(23:29):
they already seem to be putting a hard limit on
it with this you know, four week IMAX release. But
you know, it's a step up for sure. It's just
it's a step up we won't see until next year
at the very least, assuming you know, the project stays
on time.
Speaker 1 (23:42):
Another data point you feature in the Production Pipelines report
from Variety Intelligence Platform, which we just put out in
early February, was a look at the so called dependency
on film franchises what did you charge out in terms
of the latest trends. I guess what I'm saying is
(24:04):
how dependent is the industry on franchises these days? And
what will twenty twenty five tell us in terms of
that dependency.
Speaker 3 (24:14):
It's still quite dependent. Looking at what's currently scheduled and
you know, excluding films that are expected for twenty twenty
five but don't have a release date yet. The you
know number I got was around fifty four percent of
the current studio slates are tied to franchises some degree,
whether that's a new sequel and you know, a well
(24:36):
known franchise, a reboot or remake of something that came before.
It's definitely you know, nothing much has changed there. This
is going to be a little bit more of a
franchise a year than twenty twenty four, but not a ton.
What's most interesting is, you know, the attempt the continued
(24:57):
attempts to take old ip we haven't seen for some time,
and you know, try to make something new out of them,
like we saw with Twisters last year in Beatlejuice Beetlejuice
last year. This time around, it's really Sony that's taking
the biggest gambal on that regard, they're launching a film
called twenty eight Years Later, which is basically a reboot
sequel to twenty twos twenty eight days Later. They have
(25:18):
the same team from that, that's director Danny Boyle and
screenwriter Alex Garland, who is you know, at this point
more well known for films like Civil War that he's
directed himself. So they've got Killian Murphy back after he
won Best Actor for Oppenheimer. So you know, it's a
project that has a lot of flare. But they're not
even waiting to see how that film does in the summer.
(25:40):
They already greenlit it as a trilogy, so a second
film has essentially already been shot and it's slated for
January twenty twenty six. And I think the first film
has a budget of around seventy million, so you know,
they're not not taking it seriously, and they are giving
it a heftier budget than you typically see for horror films.
But at the same time, there is you know, something
(26:02):
to be said there for wanting to create a new
franchise that you know is under one hundred million. I think,
you know, Sony recognizes that it can't solely rely on
its little chunk of Marvel with the Tom Holland Spider
Man movies. One thing that could be driving that is
that their own attempt at you know, their own Spider
Man universe with these movies based around villains like the
(26:24):
three Venom movies and then of course Morbus and Madam
Webb that hasn't really taken off of them and the
way they wanted it to. The new Venom film that
came out last fall, did you know, it didn't do terribly,
not like Madam Webb and Morbius, but definitely not as
well as the twenty twenty one Venom film. So I
think they're ready to try to figure out a new
(26:45):
path forward for franchises that is much more economical, but
you know, can still kick off with a lot of flair,
and you know, if they are willing to green light
a trilogy instead of just you know, one of these
twenty eight years later films, I think, you know, that's
a good example of their confidence there.
Speaker 1 (27:00):
And just to go back to that stat you offered
earlier about the fifty four percent of the twenty twenty
five slate being franchise associated back in twenty twenty one,
would be the only time, going back on the six
years that you charted where there was a higher number,
which was fifty seven percent. Just throwing that out there.
Speaker 3 (27:22):
Yeah, that one. I think that was mostly because of
the sheer amount of films from twenty twenty that were delayed.
Speaker 1 (27:29):
I'd be remiss not alluding to the recently concluded Sundance
Film Festival, because we also have a slide from you
about the festivals, and so I was curious as you
looked at the Sundance Festival that just completed, there was
(27:52):
a lot of chatter about slow buying and although I
think it picked up a bit towards the end, any
impressions as you looked past the Sundance that just concluded,
did it conform with your expectations? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (28:08):
At the you know, number level of the films that
you know, debut at the festival that hasn't changed. That's consistently,
you know, like been between eighty and one hundred in
the past few years. But yeah, as you pointed out,
and as you know, the press was really noting the
you know, there weren't a lot of flashy buys coming
out of it like there used to be. I think
one thing that could be driving that is just you know,
(28:31):
maybe the streamers are being a little bit more economical.
Netflix in the past has of course bought films, you know,
at the twenty million level of the twenty five million level,
but maybe this time, you know, if there's a strategy
to really bring those costs down on the film side,
that could be applying to the acquisition front as well. Obviously,
if you know, they don't get a lot of Oscars
(28:51):
from Amelia Perez this Oscar season, that could influence that
as well. One of the notable buys that did sort
of come out right out of the gate was Neon
scooping up yet another horror film. They bought this film
called Together. That made a little bit of a splash there,
and like going back to what I was saying about
(29:12):
horror and like Sony taking a chance on a horror franchise,
that genre alone is still such a big draw at
the box office that I expect you're going to see
a lot more acquisitions on the horror side at you know,
the festivals throughout the year, because you know, Neon already
had I think at least six films scheduled on their
slate with actual dates or twenty to twenty five that
(29:33):
you know, can definitely be considered horror movies. So if
they hit the festival and almost immediately come back with
another film, that's showing a lot about their thinking, because
Neon isn't just you know, they don't just put out
neat horror films. They also put out quite a lot
of foreign language films. They have a knack for films
than when the Palm dor can uh Anora for instance,
(29:54):
which is you know, one of their front runners for
this Oscar season, that's a Neon film and that also
took on Palm d'Or So. The fact that studio is
bridging such an interesting gap between stuff that plays very
very well with film audiences and you know, the other
Christige fair they're known for, I think it's a good
indication that festivals could get a lot more genre centric.
Speaker 1 (30:16):
You mentioned the Oscars, You mentioned in Nora anything else
as the Oscars approach that you're going to be looking
at as the award show season is in high gear.
Speaker 3 (30:27):
A twenty four is the Brutalist that's pretty front of mind,
not just because it's a front runner for awards, but
it's actually been doing pretty decently at the box office.
Initially that had a very small release, you know, over
the holiday season, was playing in just a few theaters
on seventy millimeter. I checked that out on Christmas and
that is a very very long movie. It's over three hours,
(30:50):
and it's from a director who is you know, becoming
increasingly lauded, but isn't Martin Scorsese, who I think can
get away a bit easier with putting films out his
name again, Uh, pretty Corbett right, Yeah, So that expanded
in January now has about twelve million domestically, which you know,
not a ton compared to what most of the studio
(31:13):
pictures draw in, but is still I think evidence of
you know, half the strength of A twenty four's brand,
but also that there is still a willingness to see
movies with a lot of praise behind them, you know,
no matter their length, if people feel they'll get a
decent theatrical experience out of it.
Speaker 1 (31:31):
Well, barely a month into the calendar, but plenty, plenty
of trends to be watching across the entertainment industry, and
you could do worse. And check out the Variety Intelligence
platform latest report on production pipelines, film and TV in Flux.
My fellow Variety Intelligence platform analysts Tyler Aquillina and Corey
(31:55):
Ericksson did some great work that you got to check out,
and I thank them both for being here.
Speaker 3 (32:00):
Thank you, Thanks for listening.
Speaker 2 (32:06):
Be sure to leave us a review at Apple Podcasts
or Amazon Music. We love to hear from listeners.
Speaker 3 (32:12):
Please go to Variety dot com and sign up for
the free weekly Strictly Business newsletter, and don't forget to
tune in next week for another episode of Strictly Business
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