October 6, 2020 • 47 mins
Swing states are all the rage once again this election season, but the makeup has changed a bit. Learn all about what makes a swing state a swing state right now.
Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Stuff You Should Know, a production of five
Heart Radios How Stuff Works. Hey, and welcome to the podcast.
I'm Josh Clark, and there's Charles W. Chuck Bryan over there,
and Jerry's over there somewhere, I think in our office.
And this is stuff you should know. Uh, the Swinging
(00:23):
super Hip Cat edition. Swing States. They're the swing in
the states of all They like to sleep with each
other based on keys they took out of a fish ball. Uh.
I should say up front thank you to how stuff
Works dot Com for this article, along with Politico, NPR
(00:46):
and I think blog I got some stuff from you.
Sounds like you're giving an acceptance speech for for best
election podcast episode. It's all right, we are not gonna
win you. So this is on swing states, which uh
are all the rage battleground states these days. Everybody loves
(01:07):
them and have been for a while. But uh, some
of this stuff I thought was even enlightened me and
I thought I kind of knew most of this stuff. Yeah,
it's one of those things that I found, um that
you can make a lot more difficult than it actually is,
at least just the general concept of swing states. But um,
there's a lot of detail and info in history to it.
(01:30):
That makes the whole thing really interesting. So to keep
from making the whole thing more difficult than it is,
let's just define swing states at the outset. Swing states
are states during presidential elections in the United States here, um,
that are so closely divided politically that they could go
(01:53):
either way. They could vote one way or the other.
And based on a lot of you know, governmental ins
and outs that will go over depending on which way
they they flip, they could make or break a presidential
campaign and elect the president or deny somebody else the
presidency at the same time. Even that's right, and I'm
(02:16):
glad you said that, because more than anything else in
this episode, we want to drive or I want to
drive home. At least I'm sure you're on board. Um.
A swing state is not just a state that is
very closely divided politically among its constituents and it just
could go one way or the other. It is a
state where there are people who there are enough people
(02:38):
in that state who can be persuaded to change who
they vote for that it can make a state go
one way or the other. We're talking down to the
thousands or even hundreds of votes, and that is why
it is so, so, so so important that everybody votes.
Everybody votes, but especially if you live in one of
(03:00):
these swing states, because there are, believe it or not,
there are people that still haven't made up their mind
in this country, which is really surprising in in this
particular election, because things have gotten superpartisan and polarized in America,
and they had been going that way for many, many
years now. But I mean, it is I don't want
(03:20):
to say it's reached its apex. I hope it's reached
its apex. I'm sure it could get way worse. But
things are real polarized here, so it is very surprising
that there's undecided voters. And I remember from our election
polling episode, we were saying one of the reasons that
the state polling was so far off is because there
were so many undecided voters at the end of two
thousand and sixteen, That in and of itself is pretty
(03:42):
surprising because the candidates were so different, things were so polarized.
Then it's even more surprising now that there's any undecided voters,
but they're out there. There's not a ton of them,
but there's enough of them to swing election and swing
of state um Brookings institutions as sent or more of
a presidential candidate spending occurs in the swing states, and
(04:06):
you know they're they're spending on ads, a lot of it,
as ad bys and social media advis um, you know,
robot calling, stuff like that. But we should go over
just you know, I know we did one on the
electoral college, but just for our friends across the many ponds,
we should give kind of a quick overview of the
very odd way that we do things here. Yeah, because
(04:28):
everybody thinks in the United States that everybody goes to
the polls and during a national election like the presidential
election and elects the president, one person has one vote,
and that is definitely true. Each person does have a vote.
But the thing is, we have something called the electoral college,
and rather than directly elect the president through a popular vote,
(04:52):
we have an indirect way of electing the president where
all those people who go to the polls are going
to the polls to ca to ballot whether they know
it or not, for the the electors for each party.
So if you voted for Donald Trump in two thousand twenties,
say what you're voting for is not necessarily Donald Trump.
(05:13):
You're voting for your state's Republican Party electors to go
to the electoral College to cast their vote for Donald Trump.
Hopefully that is the indirect way of electing the president
that we have. And under this situation, under this indirect
electoral college setup that we have, you can actually get
(05:33):
elected president without winning the popular vote. And that's what
happened in two thousand sixteen. Yes, twice, very recently happened
in the two thousand election where Al Gore I think
one the popular vote by half a million votes. Happened
in two thousands sixteen where Hillary Clinton won the popular
vote by almost three million votes, like two point nine million.
(05:56):
And then it happened a couple of times in the
I think the nineteenth century didn't four times, Yeah, the
other two are pretty far back. And all four times, UM,
Republican candidates lost the popular vote and ended up being
the winning the election. UM. And and we'll get into,
you know, changes on the horizon as far as that goes.
But to kind of put a pin in the electoral
(06:17):
college how it specifically works, as UM, each senator from
each state, which is two senators, because each state has
to get a vote, and then UM for each representative
in the House. Uh, they get a vote, and everywhere
except for Maine in Nebraska does what's called a winner
take all. So um, if if everyone in Georgia or
(06:40):
you know, if Georgia votes for for, let's say, Joe Biden,
then everybody, all the electors would have to vote for
Joe Biden and cast that vote in Maine. In Nebraska,
what they do is I think they and the goal here,
by the ways, two and seventy electoral votes if you
want to win the presidency. But they do the district system,
(07:01):
which is they award two of those electoral votes to
the statewide popular vote winner, and then they go, I
think just a district by district, don't they Yeah, they do,
and so so um you can win. You know, if
you win your statewide election in Maine or in UM Nebraska,
you get two electoral votes automatically, and then you get
(07:25):
one for each district that you want, which is it
seems a little more fair. It does seem a little
more fair. But I saw that UM on fair vote
dot Org. They they said, if you do the math,
it's actually way less fair a raational level. Yeah, like
maybe it works for Maine in Nebraska, but if all
states did that, you would be able to eke out
and even more imbalance between an electoral college win and
(07:48):
a loss of the popular vote. I saw somebody put
out that they there is a path to two hundred
and seventy electoral votes, so you would win the presidency
while also getting just like of the popular vote. Um
that you like to think that could never happen, but
(08:09):
apparently mathematically with this setup of the electoral college, it
could happen. And the reason why is because one the
electoral college exists, like you said, and then too because
of that winner take all system to where it doesn't
matter whether you win a state by one vote, you
get all of the electoral votes for that one state,
(08:30):
and so um in in in creating swing states, the
electoral college also creates what are called safe states. And
a safe state is where so many people so reliably
vote for the party that that candidate UM is running for, UH,
that you can just count on that state giving like
(08:52):
winning their their electoral votes, and you actually start with
a base of that that that like, UM, let's say
there's a hundred and seventy solid electoral votes among like
twenty states for Democrats. Right, that is what you would
rely on, not just on election day but throughout the campaign.
(09:12):
And so you're not spending much time or money in
those states because those are safe states. You don't need
to It doesn't make any sense to do that. It
makes way more sense to spend all of your time
and money and attention on those swing states because those
are the ones that aren't necessarily safe, but they're also
not necessarily leaning the other way either, and you could
conceivably put those swing states together to create that two
(09:34):
hundred and seventy or more electoral votes which should lead
you to the presidency. Right. But you know, it's gotten
a little tricky here in recent years because, uh, there
are a few swing states that are kind of really
solidly swingy, and then there have been a few that
are more swingy or less swingy. And you have to
make a decision as a candidate where you're going to
(09:55):
spend your money in your time, and that's where polling
comes in. UM. A lot of people say that perhaps
Hillary Clinton didn't spend enough time in certain states that
ended up flipping to Donald Trump. Um, it's all strategy. UM,
I think now we can maybe take a little extended
sidebar here about this whole blue state red state thing
(10:16):
with I thought was very interesting because it here in
America we have blue states and red states. The blue
states are the Democratic leaning states. The red states are
the Republican leading states. Um. If you are sort of
in the mix, maybe a swing state, they might call
you purple in the news. If you hear that, that's
what that means. But it didn't always used to be
(10:38):
these colors. Uh, And I got this from NPR. I
found it interesting to know that when the colors first
started being assigned in the mid nineteen seventies, Uh, the uh,
the Democrats were red and the Republicans were blue. Yeah.
So supposedly blue was traditionally the republicans um color because
(11:00):
it was the color of the Union during the Civil War. UM,
and the Union was led by Abraham Lincoln, who was Republican.
And then also apparently in Europe, the conservative parties are
typically associated with the color blue, So it made more sense,
at least at first, to have Republicans be blue and
Democrats be read. And supposedly that's where it debuted back
(11:21):
in nineteen seventy six here in the United States on
NBC because NBC was the first network to um have
to go full color, and so in election Night nineteen
seventies six, they said, check out our amazing interactive map.
Blue states are gonna be ones that Republicans have one,
Red states are gonna be ones that Democrats have one,
(11:41):
and um, have you did you see a picture of
the map. It looks like a giant stained glass window
the United States. It does not look super flashy or
anything now, but at the time it was like, knock
your socks off. Technologically advanced, I guess, yeah. But UM,
here's the thing is, those colors weren't locked in and
like there was never any you know, vote about those
(12:02):
colors or anything like that. They just sort of went
that way. Um, As more and more TV networks went color, UM,
they went with other colors, and it got a little
bit confusing. Um. Depending on which which network you were watching,
you might see different colors representing different parties. I think
always red and blue. But they were kind of flip flopped.
And it wasn't until two thousand uh and the Washington Post,
(12:26):
Uh they credit Tim Russert. Um, I think the late
Tim Russert. He passed away to men. Yeah, they credit
Tim Russert with kind of locking in what we now
know as blue states and red states, Blue being for Democrat,
red for Republican during the two thousand election between Gore
and Bush. And these colors are important because it's uh
(12:47):
and one of these writers in here, what's his name,
Bill Bishop, Uh, he's from Texas. He wrote a book
called The Big Sort, and he kind of makes a
really good point that has become a shorthand of not
just a leaning of the state, but sort of a lifestyle.
Like you hear things like, you know, it's a really
blue neighborhood or a red community, and you kind of
(13:09):
know that's shorthand for a certain thing in this country now. Yeah,
And and part of the problem with with especially designating
entire states as like red or blue um is that
it makes it seem like there's this homogeneous group that
is that is that the whole state thinks that way,
And that's not necessarily true. I Mean, there's plenty of
states out there that that are considered red states, but
(13:30):
they were won by one and a half percent or
three percent. You know, it's like a very close call,
but it went Republican in the presidential election, so it's
a red state or like you said, you know you
can you can get it down to like community level,
that kind of thing. And in doing so, all you're
doing is sewing this division, that of tribal ism that
(13:50):
exists in the United States to where it's just so
easy to have this allegiance to blue or red. They
don't even make it donkey or elephant any longer. It's
blue and red. It's one of the most basic things
you can you can sort by, which is colors um
and it's a it's a it's a real problem in
that it's somehow stokes that mentality that in group out
(14:13):
group mentality that is so problematic in the United States
right now and is drowning the country as we speak. Basically,
I hate to say it, but it's absolutely true. It
really is. And it's especially annoying if you have political
leanings like I do and live in a state like
Georgia that is for the past you know, uh twenty
(14:34):
plus years been solidly read and then you know, you
have you know, you used to live in California, have
plenty of friends in California who say things about you know,
places like Georgia with such a disdain right, and just
it just bothers me so much because it is, you know,
these and the thing can be said for people on
the other side of the political spectrum. It's not exclusive
(14:55):
to to me being a liberal in Georgia. It's I'm
sure the same frustrations happened for Republicans in Massachusetts. Absolutely, yeah,
I'm I'm quite sure in that. I think it was.
I don't know what article that came from. They point
out that those people are some of the most die
hard partisans you'll find, you know, people who are minority
(15:16):
in their state because they feel like they're really carrying
the flag for their party or whatever. Um. But yeah,
it's it's it's a real problem and all it takes
away all nuance, and it also makes people think like, oh,
you're you're from a red state. I can't work with you.
My constituents won't like it if I work with you
red state person, rather than you're from Wisconsin and I'm
from California. Let's figure out how to make this highway
(15:39):
bill make more sense kind of thing, you know. Yeah,
Emily and I have a lot of conversations about the
lack of nuance in today's uh world, and it's I
think that's one of the biggest problems we have going
on right now. Nuance has been lost in everything, is
carved very much into red and blue and black and white.
And it's sad. And you know what is what another
(15:59):
thing that makes it sad too is it's not just
like that's just appealing to the lowest common denominator. It
activates in all people, including brilliant, intelligent people who are
otherwise normally level headed, that they still have that part
of their brain stimilar They're like on blue arm red. Um.
I I affiliate with that, and I hate the opposite.
(16:21):
It's um. It is that when you lose nuance, a
lot of stuff goes out the window with it. All Right, well,
let's take a break. That was our first soapbox of
the day. I didn't I thought we started out on
a soapbox was going to be I think pretty even
handed soapboxes. So right, sure, alright, well we'll come back
and we'll build another soapbox in the next couple of
(16:43):
minutes and we'll be back right after this and shocking, okay, um,
(17:16):
so with we're back on swing states, right, and I
think we should kind of talk about how how they
swing or how they have swung or swang uh recently
because with swing states like you, you kind of get
this idea that they're they're the same all all the time.
That's just not the case, especially not lately. Uh. It
(17:38):
seems like in two thousand and sixteen we're both watershed
years as far as just completely recoloring the electoral map. Uh.
And in Bill Clinton did it and in two thousand
and sixteen Donald Trump did it, and it just surprised
everybody both times. Yeah, ninety two and if uh, you know,
(18:00):
if you're our age or younger, you might not have
been super hip to politics when you were in high school,
let's say, or early college, and you may not know
that there was what was called a red wall. They
didn't call it a red wall back then, but it
was a red wall where there was UM. Republicans had
a pretty firm lock on the electoral college. Uh in
(18:22):
that from nineteen sixty six to nine, twenty one states
voted Republican every single election. Uh. And that included you
might be surprised to hear, uh, California, Illinois and New Jersey,
in Virginia and here's the one that's going to really
make your heart stop. Vermont. Yeah. Traditionally, Republican voted twenty
(18:47):
one times in a row, and that is a electoral votes. So, uh,
they the Democrats had a pretty big disadvantage going into
nine historically, meaning that they had to win more than
three quarters of the remaining electoral votes. Um for these
you know, quote unquote competitive or up in the upper
grab states. And that's not counting d C, which Democrats
(19:10):
have always got a lock on. Yeah, for the last
fourteen elections, DC has always gone Democrat, right. Um, So
that the common wisdom was that when George H. W.
Bush went up for re election, not only was he
the incumbent president, which means that you're supposed to be
favored typically. Um, he also had this red wall which
(19:31):
I don't know what they called it, but this lock
on the electoral college, and uh, it was presumed that
he was probably gonna win. And then Bill Clinton came along,
and um, he flipped nine states from that red wall,
not just the swing states, he flipped nine of those
red wall states, um, which was a hundred and eighteen
(19:51):
electoral votes and ended up winning three hundred and seventy
two hundred and sixty eight for in the electoral College votes.
Somebody bring me a sledgehammer. That's basically what he did, though,
I mean, it was it was pretty unprecedented, and like
you said, just flipped the political thinking in this country
on its ear and flipped them so hard that California, Illinois,
(20:15):
New Jersey, and Vermont haven't haven't voted Republican since the election.
So really reshaped the map. Yeah, he flipped those Republican
lock states into Democrat lock states. That's right. And now
they call it the Blue Wall, and they do call
it the blue wall now because blue is firmly ensconced
(20:36):
as Democrat. And there are eighteen states supposedly among this
blue wall, along with d C that have voted Democrat
and each of the most recent six elections from nine
to two, well previously from ninety two to right. And
that's when Trump came in and flipped it on it's
(20:57):
here once again. Yeah, So he flipped some traditionally UM
Democrats strongholds like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, UM. And he he
did so by first of all, energizing voters that hadn't
really been seen at the polls very much um like
UH voters without higher education diploma. A lot of rural workers,
(21:21):
especially blue collar workers who had been lifelong Democrats, went
out and voted for Trump UM and ended up taking
I think he flipped more than just those three. Oh yeah, Um,
he flipped five Maine and Minnesota. No, no, I'm sorry,
he flipped those three, and that's how he won the
electoral college. But he almost won main and he almost
(21:42):
won Minnesota, and both of them were pretty pretty strong
Democratic UH states. Minnesota hadn't voted for Republican in like
fifty years, and he came close to flipping that. And
so here's the thing we're talking about all these states
being flipped, because when a state gets lipped in an election,
especially if it's kind of close or narrowly held rather
(22:06):
than flipped, that state is probably going to be a
battle ground or swing state in the next election. Yeah.
So if you're wondering, I mean, we'll list out the
swing states and sort of in that drama right here.
But if you're wondering if you might be in a
swing state, it has to do with quite a few things. UM. Obviously,
the voting history there being predictable, UM, if you voted
(22:28):
for a long long time for a specific party, you're
probably not a swing state. UM. If your demo demographics
in in that state are UM traditionally really supports the
same candidate, then you're probably not going to be a
swing state. The fact is that most voters in most
regions of the country, or most regions of the states
(22:51):
in this country, they vote based on UM. They have
really different opinions based on the experience of just literally
the physical play is where they live. Right, So like
the rural voters typically go UM GOP a Republican, whereas
people in metropolitan areas, major metropolitan areas frequently go towards
(23:12):
the Democrats, and they have different experiences based on their
geography UM and depending on how balanced that is, how
big the metropolis is, how big the rural area is
in a state UM compared to whatever metropolis or capital
is there, that can make that state of swing state.
Like North Carolina is a really good example of that.
(23:33):
There's a lot of highly educated tech types, scientific researchers
who live in the research triangle UM in North Carolina,
but there's also a ton of rural voters to who
are active in politics, and those two balance each other out,
and so North Carolina is very frequently a swing state
in presidential elections because of that. Yeah, and you know,
(23:56):
I want to be clear, we're not like disparaging people
who don't have college diplomas. Um, there are all kinds
of ways to be smart. Uh. There are a lot
of people with college diplomas that can't change their oil
on their car, or you know, or build defense and
those those are other types of smarts. And they're all
different ways to be smart. Yeah. Yeah, I'm not saying
(24:18):
that at all. Now. I think if you listen to
our election polling episode, a divide between college educated and
non college educated voters was created in two thousands, sixteens
where it hadn't been there before, and now that is
a major part of American politics. Right, so along with
North Carolina this year and again, you know, this is
(24:39):
what they expect to see. Um, it could be turned on.
It's here once again, and states could be in the
mix that we didn't even forecast. You never know. But
right now they're saying that North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, always
Florida is so important, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Uh. Some people
say New Hampshire. Some people say Georgia, Uh, that's that's
(25:01):
a big one. Um, Georgia hasn't voted for a Democratic
presidential candidate, I think, I mean, has it been since Clinton? Yeah,
that's what I would say since. And I think Texas
remarkably and Georgia have both drifted left by four points
with each of the last couple of elections. And they're
(25:22):
saying that, you know, it's gonna be very tight in Georgia,
and I don't think anyone is anticipating that it will flip.
But it's purple and in the mix for the first
time in a long time. Yeah, which is really saying
something because I mean in Georgia, for many years, if
you were a Democrat, it just did not matter, Like
(25:43):
you just didn't need to bother to vote. And that's
a big problem with swing states in the electoral college
that we'll talk about that metaphorically, by the way, right exactly,
But I mean there's this this whole concept of a
wasted vote in a safe state for the opposition party,
their votes wasted. Um. But we'll talk about that later.
But um, just like there's some some surprising states that
(26:04):
are now considered swing states or battleground states. There's also
some that have customarily been swing states that aren't necessarily
And the big standout one for that is Ohio. Ohio
has voted for the president um correctly or I should
say they went they the nominee or the candidate that
(26:28):
that Ohio voted for has been the president, the one
who won the presidential race in like dozens of of
of elections, maybe not dozens, but they've been voting correctly
for the president, correctly picking the president. I feel like
I'm digging myself deeper into a hole here. Anyway. What
(26:49):
that says about Ohio is that, wow, Ohio is like
really a thinking group politically speaking, because we have had
Republican presidents and we have had Democrat president through throughout
the last few decades and Ohio has you know, voted
uh differently, you know, just about every time. And that
says that Ohio is the longstanding swing state. Well, Ohio
(27:11):
is flipped in two thousand and sixteen, and there's a
lot of political observers who are like, Ohio is now
leans conservative, now a red state, and that's a really
surprising turn of events. For Yeah, I think Colorado, Ohio
and Virginia are three of the traditional swing states that
have been taken off that list, Arizona and Georgia. I
don't think Texas is officially on the list at all,
(27:33):
but I think because Texas has always been so solidly conservative,
for it to eke towards the Democrats at all just
makes it a lot of Hey, so there's a lot
more talk about it on the news and stuff like
that because there's so much media influence, and I think
that the liberal media probably thinks that, like, oh, Texas
(27:53):
is leaning, maybe we can help push him over the edge.
We talk about it all the time. Yeah, probably, um,
because that's how things work if you listen to the
polling podcast. Uh. And like you mentioned earlier, in Minnesota,
UM hasn't voted for a Republican in in about fifty years,
and they are you know, they have inched a little bit, right. Yeah.
I think Trump just missed Minnesota and Clinton just barely one.
(28:18):
Minnesota by like three and Maine by one and a
half percent. So those two are definitely in play like
they haven't been in a while. Should we take another break.
Let's take another break, and then we're gonna come back
and talk about get this swing states, Josh and Shock
(28:50):
and things like stop so Chuck. One of the things
that we talked about early on is that UM swing
states basically tell campaigns where they need to concentrate their focus,
(29:13):
their money, their candidates time. Uh, you know, election stops,
that kind of thing, stumping UM and they do that
like that's that's where the vast majority of the money
goes is it's advertising campaigns in these swing states. Florida
is a really good example of a longstanding swing state
that gets tons and tons of advertising money. Yeah. Florida
(29:36):
is such an interesting state to me because it is
it's really hard to pin down politically, and I think
it's because, I think, more so than almost any other
state except maybe California, I feel like there are more
versions of Florida than almost any other state has versions
(29:58):
of itself. Absolutely, and it's not I mean, Florida is
not small. It's not the side of California. But you know,
you think about the Gulf Coast and then inland from
the Gulf Coast, very different people. Yeah, the people Inland
wouldn't be caught dead in Florabama. Yeah. You think about
Miami Beach and that area and in Key West and
(30:20):
Fort Lauderdale, and then you've got the interior of like
the Tampa Clearwater area, which is really different. And then
let's not forget about the most magical place on Earth, Orlando. Well,
you've got Orlando, and then you've also got up in
the north, you know, borderline Georgia. You have places like
Jacksonville and St. Augustine, and just Florida has so many
different kinds of places within its own state that it
(30:43):
doesn't surprise me that it's really hard to pin down
politically because it's hard to pin down just sort of culturally,
I think, right, and because you have so many different
places that geographically informed the voters, um, that are so
demographically diverse, all in one state, then that of course
is going to be a swing state in Florida probably
(31:04):
always will be a swing state just for those reasons.
So the retirees are a big um. They always point
to retirees in Florida traditional conservatives. But apparently the youngest
three generations amount to registered voters there now, so that's surprising. Yeah,
I mean, I guess the sad way to say it
is is that many of these people are dying. Yeah,
(31:28):
I mean, surely, I mean, there's an elderly population is
going to eventually die off, then you've got a younger
population is actually going to age into it. But it
seems like right now they're the elderly population in Florida
has been losing ground numbers wise, while the younger populations
have been gaining ground. There coming after you for a
state because you need all those young people to work
(31:50):
to take care of all those old peopleres So um,
Florida gets a tremendous amount of attention, a lot of money,
a lot of campaign visits, all that stuff. And because
it's a swing state, all swing states get that kind
of stuff um in presidential elections. But people in other states,
especially in solid states that have gone one way for
(32:13):
many many election cycles, those people say, well, hey, what
about us. We want attention, we want these campaign stops.
We have things that are important to us that we
want to talk to you about and hear from you about.
We don't care about Florida. We care about uh Idaho,
So come to Idaho and talk to us in Idaho.
And the candidate usually says like, I don't even know
(32:35):
where Idaho is. Please leave me alone. I'm trying to
pay attention to Florida and you're being very distracting right now. Yeah.
And here's the thing, Like, in my mind, I say,
who cares if a presidential candidate comes and talks to
people at a dumb rally, like like does that really matter?
But what they do is, you know, it's not just
a broad sort of let me make a stop there.
(32:56):
It's very pinpointed and calculated, like they might be going
after a really specific constituency there, like because how close
some of these swing states are. Uh, and they might say,
you know what, if we can get auto workers to
vote for you will be set. Or if we can
(33:16):
get people that work on on public roads and infrastructure
flipped our way, then we can win by a thousand votes.
And so they may make pit stops in these states
to go to the factory. I mean, that's why do
you do that stuff? It's not just to uh, you know,
it's I mean, it's it's all just very calculated and
very specific. Right because the viewer on TV is like, hey,
(33:39):
I work in a factory and they're in a factory
right now. They must mean that they really identify with
my needs and wants. Well, true, And that's someone from
another state that also just happens to work in a factory.
But the people in that state, I feel like, Wow,
they're here to talk to the coal miners, right. I
can't believe they came to Michigan. No one ever comes
to Michigan on purpose. Hey, we went to Michigan on
(34:02):
purpose once, are we? We haven't ragged on Detroit in
a long time. No, it's been a while, but that's
really what we're talking about. Michigan is code for Detroit
when you're talking about not going to Michigan. But it's
just interesting how pinpointed and how um just like razor
sharp and focused and laser focus campaigns are these days
with talking to very specific groups of people. If they
(34:25):
think they can win a thousand votes out of a state,
that that could make a difference. It can because again
here's here's why a thousand lit literally a thousand votes
could make the president UM in a state because of
that winner take all electoral votes. Whereas if like those
states use the district system like Maine in Nebraska, UM,
(34:48):
you know, if you won, you might get half of
the delegates and they get the other half. Basically, but
the fact that it's winner take all is that. Yeah,
those extra thousand votes really count in a good sized
state for ten electoral votes twenty electoral votes, So it's
definitely worth spending that much time and focus on one
(35:08):
single state, and a lot of other states resent a
lot of non swing states. So safe states resents swing
states because they say, basically, it's up to Ohio and
Virginia to decide who gets to be president. The rest
of us are going to go vote is we're expected
to because if you're in a safe state, it doesn't
matter if you win by a thousand votes or win
by a million votes. You're gonna it's winner take all
(35:31):
again too, So you're not gonna pay that much attention,
and really you're not in a way, you're not producing
the president. That's a little cynical in my opinion, because
without that solid safe state, you wouldn't have that foundation
that the president the candidate is building the swing state
um electoral votes off of. I don't think that's fully accurate,
(35:52):
but there does seem to be like some sour grapes
among safe state people. That makes sense to me most
of all. Chuck when you're talking walking about people who
feel like their vote is wasted because they're voting for
the party. That's the opposite of how the state traditionally goes.
So if you're a Georgia voter and you're a Democrat
(36:12):
for the last several elections, you could very easily feel
like your vote was so wasted you might not even
bother going to the pulse because your vote in this
sense of electoral college. And this is a really good
reason to do away with the electoral college. As far
as the electoral college is concerned, your vote didn't count you.
You had no reason to go vote as far as
(36:34):
electing the president goes, because it was washed away and
drowned out by all the other votes that went towards
the other candidate. And since it's a winner take all
system of electoral votes, that that your vote didn't matter
because they were always going to win all those delegates
because you were going to get out voted. Right. But um,
and and I'm glad you said president specifically, you should
(36:57):
always vote for the president, of course, But um, there
are so many ballot measures in local um local considerations
on the ballot local elections that really have such an
impact that you always always always vote UM. But it's
almost like It's almost like filling out your census form.
In a way, it's the only information that we have
(37:18):
of where a state is politically, is you casting your vote.
So if you cast your vote in Georgia like I do,
and Donald Trump wins Georgia, again, it's not a wasted
vote because the Democratic Party will look up the numbers
and say, wow, you know, like they're doing. Now, look
how many you know, Stacy Abrams almost got elected. The
first African American female governor in the United States, almost
(37:41):
won in Georgia in an election that many people thought
was undermined by the Republican candidate with voter suppression, and
that was a big deal. So now that's why so
much attention is on Georgia, because it's like you're filling
out your little census thing, you're casting that vote, and
they're saying, Okay, well George is in the mix. Now
we're gonna We're gonna campaign in Georgia. Moore. Plus, also,
(38:02):
there's another really good reason to vote in those situations
as well. Um, Like, I'm sure other voters in Vermont
who felt like they were probably wasting their vote in
two but they went dutifully to the polls and exercise
their real, basic important right as a citizen there, right
to vote. Um. And Bill Clinton ended up flipping the state.
Had those people been like it's just a waste to
(38:24):
vote anyway and stay at home, that state wouldn't have
been flipped. The same goes for Wisconsin or Michigan for
Trump in two thousand sixteen. Um. So there's a lot
of good reasons to go out and vote, even if
you feel like your vote is wasted. That's just it's
just too cynical, you know, And I understand especially in
(38:44):
the in the during the coronavirus pandemic. You know, things
are definitely different, but under normal circumstances, especially the idea
of just staying home and not voting unless you're protesting
against your party's candidate. That's different. But candidate okay, sure,
I mean just the idea of getting out to the
polls on election dame, participating in government on that one
(39:07):
day every four years. Even it's important, it's it's just
important in ways that you can't fully put your finger on,
but you just know it's important and important enough to
just do it. Well, it's a right that people in
this country literally lost their lives to ensure and it's
a right that not everyone in this country had until
fairly recently. Uh, and so it would be a very
(39:29):
sort of privileged. I know that word is thrown around
a lot, but it's a it's a truly privileged frame
of mind to think, why bother voting when so many
people in this country, women and people of color didn't
even have the right to vote, and you know, within
the last like hundred years. So it just that's something
that that's the only thing that really burns me up.
(39:50):
Vote for whoever you want to vote for. But if
you sit at home and you don't even vote, then
just get out and you know what, Yeah, vote or die,
as he did, he says. Yeah. So one other thing
that really has grabbed me in the last like several
years is the the idea. You know, when I was
a younger, lad, I was like, voting doesn't even matter,
(40:12):
doesn't count. Everything is controlled by the illuminati anyways, right, So, um,
the idea that that the Russians are meddling in our
election and that the the candidates take um the the
election so seriously. In super paxuris so much money to
spend and try to sway people's public opinions. The idea
(40:34):
that that actually happens in real life, to me, goes
to support the idea that your votes actually do count,
that voting really does matter in the United States still,
and things are not so thrown off course and controlled
and under the thumb of people who who um, you know,
are really pulling the strings and calling the shots that
that actually doesn't exist, That in reality, voting matters, and
(40:57):
I think that the threats to voting that we've seen
over the last like several years, UM have really kind
of driven that home for me. Yeah, And you know what,
by the time this comes out, will be a couple
of months to go before the election, UM, or actually
maybe one month to go. Check your voter registration. Make
sure you know where you're going to vote. If you're
(41:17):
voting early, make sure you understand that if you're voting
absentee or by mail, make sure you fully understand how
that all works. Don't be surprised on election day. You
don't want any surprises. You want to make sure you
know exactly how you're going to vote and that you
can ensure that you can vote absolutely UM. Go to
(41:38):
USA dot gov to check out voter registration UM, and
to make sure that you are like to confirm that
you're registered to vote. I still check. Yeah, I checked
recently too, and I tweeted it out on the Stuff
You Should Know podcast M Twitter platform to totally UM.
And we should put a bow on this one by
talking a little bit about the National Popular Vote Interstate
(42:00):
Compact and this, uh, the n p V. I see,
this is a group of states that advocate for a
different plan moving forward. Uh. These are states and people
that say, how can a candidate win by three million
votes or five thousand votes and not be president? Because
that is clearly not the will of the people. We
(42:22):
have a broken system. Let's get rid of this electoral college.
And right now there are Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Vermont,
New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland,
d C. And Hawaii are all signed up in a
past legislation to enter this compact, with several more pending. Ohio, Pennsylvania,
(42:47):
South Carolina, and Virginia are pending. Right. And so what
this compact says is the state signs onto the compact
that says, UM, under normal electoral college rules, we um
give our electoral votes to whoever wins the statewide ballot. Instead,
we're going to give it to whoever wins the national vote,
the national popular vote. So even if say, um, Joe
(43:10):
Biden loses Idaho, if Idaho was signed on to this
and this thing, we're in effect, but he won the
national popular vote, Idaho would give its electoral votes to Biden.
So that the states are gonna follow the popular vote
and basically go around the electoral college, not using by
using the electoral college. Yeah, because you can't abolish it. It
It would take a constitutional amendment and ratification by thirty
(43:33):
eight states I believe to get rid of the electoral college.
This requires none of that. It's the states signing on
to go around the electoral college by using the electoral college.
And I mean we should say to the electoral college
is part of the Framer's vision for the Constitution, but
they specifically added this provision to keep the popular vote
(43:54):
from selecting the president. They wanted to keep this elite
group of politicos in charge of who actually picked the president.
And that's they created the electoral college to get in
the way of the popular vote. Yeah, it's interesting, it
really is. So that's swing states. Ah, that swing states.
If you want to know more about swing states, start
(44:15):
reading up on swing states, start reading up on politics.
It's pretty interesting stuff. And like we said earlier, go vote,
just vote. Uh. And since I said that, everybody's time
for listener mail. Uh. This is from McKenna bridge And
this is in defensive baby carrots. Uh. Just like Chuck,
the thought of baby carrots disgusted me in the past,
(44:37):
conjuring up, conjuring up images of towering piles of food
waste that I imagined where the byproduct of these smooth
little suckers. But we got it all wrong, my friend.
While the baby carrot is of course a very manicured
and aesthetically fleasing version of the real carrot pulled straight
from the soil, their invention basically changed the entire carrot
industry forever. Uh. And there was a guy name Mike
(45:01):
euro Sick who decided to smooth carrots down in the
nineteen eighties into these little, aerodynamic, bite sized cylinders, and
they were called baby carrots. Uh. He figured carrots are
ugly and uh, too plentiful to profit to profit from
his farmers, so they had a long growing season and
the people just weren't buying them. So Mike Yousroic, I'm sorry,
(45:24):
Eurosic introduces the baby carrot, and boom carrot sales absolutely skyrocketed,
and even today's baby carrots frequently top the list for
the largest share of supermarket sales. Asking about the peels, guys, well,
they are just about the perfect byproduct for making carrot
juice baby character tasty, convenient, and turns out a wonderful
(45:45):
invention the more you know, right, Anyway, I'm not completely
caught up on your podcast, so maybe someone's beat me
to the punch, but I didn't want to chance y'all
making fools of yourself the next time baby baby Carrots
comes up. Think you guys are great. To keep up
the amazing work. You're a listener and baby carrot convert
McKenna bridge and I even looked it up too, and
(46:06):
I think I saw that it was a myth that
they are bleached. M but it sounds like something I
would buy into. It sounds like something i'd buy into.
Two big carrot or I'm sorry, small carrot carrots are bleached.
The Illuminati really runs things, So you know that I
haven't fully vetted all that, but that's what mckinnabridge says,
is that they really turned around carrots as a whole
(46:28):
and that they do use those uh shavings. That's really
carret juice, is what she says. Well, McKenna, that was
really great stuff. Thank you for trying to keep us
from making fools of ourselves again. It's not gonna know,
it won't stick. If you want to get in touch
with us, like McKenna did, you can send us an
email to Stuff podcast at iHeart radio dot com. Stuff
(46:54):
you should know is a production of iHeart Radios. How
stuff works for more podcasts for my heart radio because
that the iHeart Radio a Apple podcasts are wherever you
listen to your favorite shows. H m hm
Welcome to Stuff You Should Know, a production of five
Heart Radios How Stuff Works. Hey, and welcome to the podcast.
I'm Josh Clark, and there's Charles W. Chuck Bryan over there,
and Jerry's over there somewhere, I think in our office.
And this is stuff you should know. Uh, the Swinging
(00:23):
super Hip Cat edition. Swing States. They're the swing in
the states of all They like to sleep with each
other based on keys they took out of a fish ball. Uh.
I should say up front thank you to how stuff
Works dot Com for this article, along with Politico, NPR
(00:46):
and I think blog I got some stuff from you.
Sounds like you're giving an acceptance speech for for best
election podcast episode. It's all right, we are not gonna
win you. So this is on swing states, which uh
are all the rage battleground states these days. Everybody loves
(01:07):
them and have been for a while. But uh, some
of this stuff I thought was even enlightened me and
I thought I kind of knew most of this stuff. Yeah,
it's one of those things that I found, um that
you can make a lot more difficult than it actually is,
at least just the general concept of swing states. But um,
there's a lot of detail and info in history to it.
(01:30):
That makes the whole thing really interesting. So to keep
from making the whole thing more difficult than it is,
let's just define swing states at the outset. Swing states
are states during presidential elections in the United States here, um,
that are so closely divided politically that they could go
(01:53):
either way. They could vote one way or the other.
And based on a lot of you know, governmental ins
and outs that will go over depending on which way
they they flip, they could make or break a presidential
campaign and elect the president or deny somebody else the
presidency at the same time. Even that's right, and I'm
(02:16):
glad you said that, because more than anything else in
this episode, we want to drive or I want to
drive home. At least I'm sure you're on board. Um.
A swing state is not just a state that is
very closely divided politically among its constituents and it just
could go one way or the other. It is a
state where there are people who there are enough people
(02:38):
in that state who can be persuaded to change who
they vote for that it can make a state go
one way or the other. We're talking down to the
thousands or even hundreds of votes, and that is why
it is so, so, so so important that everybody votes.
Everybody votes, but especially if you live in one of
(03:00):
these swing states, because there are, believe it or not,
there are people that still haven't made up their mind
in this country, which is really surprising in in this
particular election, because things have gotten superpartisan and polarized in America,
and they had been going that way for many, many
years now. But I mean, it is I don't want
(03:20):
to say it's reached its apex. I hope it's reached
its apex. I'm sure it could get way worse. But
things are real polarized here, so it is very surprising
that there's undecided voters. And I remember from our election
polling episode, we were saying one of the reasons that
the state polling was so far off is because there
were so many undecided voters at the end of two
thousand and sixteen, That in and of itself is pretty
(03:42):
surprising because the candidates were so different, things were so polarized.
Then it's even more surprising now that there's any undecided voters,
but they're out there. There's not a ton of them,
but there's enough of them to swing election and swing
of state um Brookings institutions as sent or more of
a presidential candidate spending occurs in the swing states, and
(04:06):
you know they're they're spending on ads, a lot of it,
as ad bys and social media advis um, you know,
robot calling, stuff like that. But we should go over
just you know, I know we did one on the
electoral college, but just for our friends across the many ponds,
we should give kind of a quick overview of the
very odd way that we do things here. Yeah, because
(04:28):
everybody thinks in the United States that everybody goes to
the polls and during a national election like the presidential
election and elects the president, one person has one vote,
and that is definitely true. Each person does have a vote.
But the thing is, we have something called the electoral college,
and rather than directly elect the president through a popular vote,
(04:52):
we have an indirect way of electing the president where
all those people who go to the polls are going
to the polls to ca to ballot whether they know
it or not, for the the electors for each party.
So if you voted for Donald Trump in two thousand twenties,
say what you're voting for is not necessarily Donald Trump.
(05:13):
You're voting for your state's Republican Party electors to go
to the electoral College to cast their vote for Donald Trump.
Hopefully that is the indirect way of electing the president
that we have. And under this situation, under this indirect
electoral college setup that we have, you can actually get
(05:33):
elected president without winning the popular vote. And that's what
happened in two thousand sixteen. Yes, twice, very recently happened
in the two thousand election where Al Gore I think
one the popular vote by half a million votes. Happened
in two thousands sixteen where Hillary Clinton won the popular
vote by almost three million votes, like two point nine million.
(05:56):
And then it happened a couple of times in the
I think the nineteenth century didn't four times, Yeah, the
other two are pretty far back. And all four times, UM,
Republican candidates lost the popular vote and ended up being
the winning the election. UM. And and we'll get into,
you know, changes on the horizon as far as that goes.
But to kind of put a pin in the electoral
(06:17):
college how it specifically works, as UM, each senator from
each state, which is two senators, because each state has
to get a vote, and then UM for each representative
in the House. Uh, they get a vote, and everywhere
except for Maine in Nebraska does what's called a winner
take all. So um, if if everyone in Georgia or
(06:40):
you know, if Georgia votes for for, let's say, Joe Biden,
then everybody, all the electors would have to vote for
Joe Biden and cast that vote in Maine. In Nebraska,
what they do is I think they and the goal here,
by the ways, two and seventy electoral votes if you
want to win the presidency. But they do the district system,
(07:01):
which is they award two of those electoral votes to
the statewide popular vote winner, and then they go, I
think just a district by district, don't they Yeah, they do,
and so so um you can win. You know, if
you win your statewide election in Maine or in UM Nebraska,
you get two electoral votes automatically, and then you get
(07:25):
one for each district that you want, which is it
seems a little more fair. It does seem a little
more fair. But I saw that UM on fair vote
dot Org. They they said, if you do the math,
it's actually way less fair a raational level. Yeah, like
maybe it works for Maine in Nebraska, but if all
states did that, you would be able to eke out
and even more imbalance between an electoral college win and
(07:48):
a loss of the popular vote. I saw somebody put
out that they there is a path to two hundred
and seventy electoral votes, so you would win the presidency
while also getting just like of the popular vote. Um
that you like to think that could never happen, but
(08:09):
apparently mathematically with this setup of the electoral college, it
could happen. And the reason why is because one the
electoral college exists, like you said, and then too because
of that winner take all system to where it doesn't
matter whether you win a state by one vote, you
get all of the electoral votes for that one state,
(08:30):
and so um in in in creating swing states, the
electoral college also creates what are called safe states. And
a safe state is where so many people so reliably
vote for the party that that candidate UM is running for, UH,
that you can just count on that state giving like
(08:52):
winning their their electoral votes, and you actually start with
a base of that that that like, UM, let's say
there's a hundred and seventy solid electoral votes among like
twenty states for Democrats. Right, that is what you would
rely on, not just on election day but throughout the campaign.
(09:12):
And so you're not spending much time or money in
those states because those are safe states. You don't need
to It doesn't make any sense to do that. It
makes way more sense to spend all of your time
and money and attention on those swing states because those
are the ones that aren't necessarily safe, but they're also
not necessarily leaning the other way either, and you could
conceivably put those swing states together to create that two
(09:34):
hundred and seventy or more electoral votes which should lead
you to the presidency. Right. But you know, it's gotten
a little tricky here in recent years because, uh, there
are a few swing states that are kind of really
solidly swingy, and then there have been a few that
are more swingy or less swingy. And you have to
make a decision as a candidate where you're going to
(09:55):
spend your money in your time, and that's where polling
comes in. UM. A lot of people say that perhaps
Hillary Clinton didn't spend enough time in certain states that
ended up flipping to Donald Trump. Um, it's all strategy. UM,
I think now we can maybe take a little extended
sidebar here about this whole blue state red state thing
(10:16):
with I thought was very interesting because it here in
America we have blue states and red states. The blue
states are the Democratic leaning states. The red states are
the Republican leading states. Um. If you are sort of
in the mix, maybe a swing state, they might call
you purple in the news. If you hear that, that's
what that means. But it didn't always used to be
(10:38):
these colors. Uh, And I got this from NPR. I
found it interesting to know that when the colors first
started being assigned in the mid nineteen seventies, Uh, the uh,
the Democrats were red and the Republicans were blue. Yeah.
So supposedly blue was traditionally the republicans um color because
(11:00):
it was the color of the Union during the Civil War. UM,
and the Union was led by Abraham Lincoln, who was Republican.
And then also apparently in Europe, the conservative parties are
typically associated with the color blue, So it made more sense,
at least at first, to have Republicans be blue and
Democrats be read. And supposedly that's where it debuted back
(11:21):
in nineteen seventy six here in the United States on
NBC because NBC was the first network to um have
to go full color, and so in election Night nineteen
seventies six, they said, check out our amazing interactive map.
Blue states are gonna be ones that Republicans have one,
Red states are gonna be ones that Democrats have one,
(11:41):
and um, have you did you see a picture of
the map. It looks like a giant stained glass window
the United States. It does not look super flashy or
anything now, but at the time it was like, knock
your socks off. Technologically advanced, I guess, yeah. But UM,
here's the thing is, those colors weren't locked in and
like there was never any you know, vote about those
(12:02):
colors or anything like that. They just sort of went
that way. Um, As more and more TV networks went color, UM,
they went with other colors, and it got a little
bit confusing. Um. Depending on which which network you were watching,
you might see different colors representing different parties. I think
always red and blue. But they were kind of flip flopped.
And it wasn't until two thousand uh and the Washington Post,
(12:26):
Uh they credit Tim Russert. Um, I think the late
Tim Russert. He passed away to men. Yeah, they credit
Tim Russert with kind of locking in what we now
know as blue states and red states, Blue being for Democrat,
red for Republican during the two thousand election between Gore
and Bush. And these colors are important because it's uh
(12:47):
and one of these writers in here, what's his name,
Bill Bishop, Uh, he's from Texas. He wrote a book
called The Big Sort, and he kind of makes a
really good point that has become a shorthand of not
just a leaning of the state, but sort of a lifestyle.
Like you hear things like, you know, it's a really
blue neighborhood or a red community, and you kind of
(13:09):
know that's shorthand for a certain thing in this country now. Yeah,
And and part of the problem with with especially designating
entire states as like red or blue um is that
it makes it seem like there's this homogeneous group that
is that is that the whole state thinks that way,
And that's not necessarily true. I Mean, there's plenty of
states out there that that are considered red states, but
(13:30):
they were won by one and a half percent or
three percent. You know, it's like a very close call,
but it went Republican in the presidential election, so it's
a red state or like you said, you know you
can you can get it down to like community level,
that kind of thing. And in doing so, all you're
doing is sewing this division, that of tribal ism that
(13:50):
exists in the United States to where it's just so
easy to have this allegiance to blue or red. They
don't even make it donkey or elephant any longer. It's
blue and red. It's one of the most basic things
you can you can sort by, which is colors um
and it's a it's a it's a real problem in
that it's somehow stokes that mentality that in group out
(14:13):
group mentality that is so problematic in the United States
right now and is drowning the country as we speak. Basically,
I hate to say it, but it's absolutely true. It
really is. And it's especially annoying if you have political
leanings like I do and live in a state like
Georgia that is for the past you know, uh twenty
(14:34):
plus years been solidly read and then you know, you
have you know, you used to live in California, have
plenty of friends in California who say things about you know,
places like Georgia with such a disdain right, and just
it just bothers me so much because it is, you know,
these and the thing can be said for people on
the other side of the political spectrum. It's not exclusive
(14:55):
to to me being a liberal in Georgia. It's I'm
sure the same frustrations happened for Republicans in Massachusetts. Absolutely, yeah,
I'm I'm quite sure in that. I think it was.
I don't know what article that came from. They point
out that those people are some of the most die
hard partisans you'll find, you know, people who are minority
(15:16):
in their state because they feel like they're really carrying
the flag for their party or whatever. Um. But yeah,
it's it's it's a real problem and all it takes
away all nuance, and it also makes people think like, oh,
you're you're from a red state. I can't work with you.
My constituents won't like it if I work with you
red state person, rather than you're from Wisconsin and I'm
from California. Let's figure out how to make this highway
(15:39):
bill make more sense kind of thing, you know. Yeah,
Emily and I have a lot of conversations about the
lack of nuance in today's uh world, and it's I
think that's one of the biggest problems we have going
on right now. Nuance has been lost in everything, is
carved very much into red and blue and black and white.
And it's sad. And you know what is what another
(15:59):
thing that makes it sad too is it's not just
like that's just appealing to the lowest common denominator. It
activates in all people, including brilliant, intelligent people who are
otherwise normally level headed, that they still have that part
of their brain stimilar They're like on blue arm red. Um.
I I affiliate with that, and I hate the opposite.
(16:21):
It's um. It is that when you lose nuance, a
lot of stuff goes out the window with it. All Right, well,
let's take a break. That was our first soapbox of
the day. I didn't I thought we started out on
a soapbox was going to be I think pretty even
handed soapboxes. So right, sure, alright, well we'll come back
and we'll build another soapbox in the next couple of
(16:43):
minutes and we'll be back right after this and shocking, okay, um,
(17:16):
so with we're back on swing states, right, and I
think we should kind of talk about how how they
swing or how they have swung or swang uh recently
because with swing states like you, you kind of get
this idea that they're they're the same all all the time.
That's just not the case, especially not lately. Uh. It
(17:38):
seems like in two thousand and sixteen we're both watershed
years as far as just completely recoloring the electoral map. Uh.
And in Bill Clinton did it and in two thousand
and sixteen Donald Trump did it, and it just surprised
everybody both times. Yeah, ninety two and if uh, you know,
(18:00):
if you're our age or younger, you might not have
been super hip to politics when you were in high school,
let's say, or early college, and you may not know
that there was what was called a red wall. They
didn't call it a red wall back then, but it
was a red wall where there was UM. Republicans had
a pretty firm lock on the electoral college. Uh in
(18:22):
that from nineteen sixty six to nine, twenty one states
voted Republican every single election. Uh. And that included you
might be surprised to hear, uh, California, Illinois and New Jersey,
in Virginia and here's the one that's going to really
make your heart stop. Vermont. Yeah. Traditionally, Republican voted twenty
(18:47):
one times in a row, and that is a electoral votes. So, uh,
they the Democrats had a pretty big disadvantage going into
nine historically, meaning that they had to win more than
three quarters of the remaining electoral votes. Um for these
you know, quote unquote competitive or up in the upper
grab states. And that's not counting d C, which Democrats
(19:10):
have always got a lock on. Yeah, for the last
fourteen elections, DC has always gone Democrat, right. Um, So
that the common wisdom was that when George H. W.
Bush went up for re election, not only was he
the incumbent president, which means that you're supposed to be
favored typically. Um, he also had this red wall which
(19:31):
I don't know what they called it, but this lock
on the electoral college, and uh, it was presumed that
he was probably gonna win. And then Bill Clinton came along,
and um, he flipped nine states from that red wall,
not just the swing states, he flipped nine of those
red wall states, um, which was a hundred and eighteen
(19:51):
electoral votes and ended up winning three hundred and seventy
two hundred and sixty eight for in the electoral College votes.
Somebody bring me a sledgehammer. That's basically what he did, though,
I mean, it was it was pretty unprecedented, and like
you said, just flipped the political thinking in this country
on its ear and flipped them so hard that California, Illinois,
(20:15):
New Jersey, and Vermont haven't haven't voted Republican since the election.
So really reshaped the map. Yeah, he flipped those Republican
lock states into Democrat lock states. That's right. And now
they call it the Blue Wall, and they do call
it the blue wall now because blue is firmly ensconced
(20:36):
as Democrat. And there are eighteen states supposedly among this
blue wall, along with d C that have voted Democrat
and each of the most recent six elections from nine
to two, well previously from ninety two to right. And
that's when Trump came in and flipped it on it's
(20:57):
here once again. Yeah, So he flipped some traditionally UM
Democrats strongholds like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, UM. And he he
did so by first of all, energizing voters that hadn't
really been seen at the polls very much um like
UH voters without higher education diploma. A lot of rural workers,
(21:21):
especially blue collar workers who had been lifelong Democrats, went
out and voted for Trump UM and ended up taking
I think he flipped more than just those three. Oh yeah, Um,
he flipped five Maine and Minnesota. No, no, I'm sorry,
he flipped those three, and that's how he won the
electoral college. But he almost won main and he almost
(21:42):
won Minnesota, and both of them were pretty pretty strong
Democratic UH states. Minnesota hadn't voted for Republican in like
fifty years, and he came close to flipping that. And
so here's the thing we're talking about all these states
being flipped, because when a state gets lipped in an election,
especially if it's kind of close or narrowly held rather
(22:06):
than flipped, that state is probably going to be a
battle ground or swing state in the next election. Yeah.
So if you're wondering, I mean, we'll list out the
swing states and sort of in that drama right here.
But if you're wondering if you might be in a
swing state, it has to do with quite a few things. UM. Obviously,
the voting history there being predictable, UM, if you voted
(22:28):
for a long long time for a specific party, you're
probably not a swing state. UM. If your demo demographics
in in that state are UM traditionally really supports the
same candidate, then you're probably not going to be a
swing state. The fact is that most voters in most
regions of the country, or most regions of the states
(22:51):
in this country, they vote based on UM. They have
really different opinions based on the experience of just literally
the physical play is where they live. Right, So like
the rural voters typically go UM GOP a Republican, whereas
people in metropolitan areas, major metropolitan areas frequently go towards
(23:12):
the Democrats, and they have different experiences based on their
geography UM and depending on how balanced that is, how
big the metropolis is, how big the rural area is
in a state UM compared to whatever metropolis or capital
is there, that can make that state of swing state.
Like North Carolina is a really good example of that.
(23:33):
There's a lot of highly educated tech types, scientific researchers
who live in the research triangle UM in North Carolina,
but there's also a ton of rural voters to who
are active in politics, and those two balance each other out,
and so North Carolina is very frequently a swing state
in presidential elections because of that. Yeah, and you know,
(23:56):
I want to be clear, we're not like disparaging people
who don't have college diplomas. Um, there are all kinds
of ways to be smart. Uh. There are a lot
of people with college diplomas that can't change their oil
on their car, or you know, or build defense and
those those are other types of smarts. And they're all
different ways to be smart. Yeah. Yeah, I'm not saying
(24:18):
that at all. Now. I think if you listen to
our election polling episode, a divide between college educated and
non college educated voters was created in two thousands, sixteens
where it hadn't been there before, and now that is
a major part of American politics. Right, so along with
North Carolina this year and again, you know, this is
(24:39):
what they expect to see. Um, it could be turned on.
It's here once again, and states could be in the
mix that we didn't even forecast. You never know. But
right now they're saying that North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, always
Florida is so important, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Uh. Some people
say New Hampshire. Some people say Georgia, Uh, that's that's
(25:01):
a big one. Um, Georgia hasn't voted for a Democratic
presidential candidate, I think, I mean, has it been since Clinton? Yeah,
that's what I would say since. And I think Texas
remarkably and Georgia have both drifted left by four points
with each of the last couple of elections. And they're
(25:22):
saying that, you know, it's gonna be very tight in Georgia,
and I don't think anyone is anticipating that it will flip.
But it's purple and in the mix for the first
time in a long time. Yeah, which is really saying
something because I mean in Georgia, for many years, if
you were a Democrat, it just did not matter, Like
(25:43):
you just didn't need to bother to vote. And that's
a big problem with swing states in the electoral college
that we'll talk about that metaphorically, by the way, right exactly,
But I mean there's this this whole concept of a
wasted vote in a safe state for the opposition party,
their votes wasted. Um. But we'll talk about that later.
But um, just like there's some some surprising states that
(26:04):
are now considered swing states or battleground states. There's also
some that have customarily been swing states that aren't necessarily
And the big standout one for that is Ohio. Ohio
has voted for the president um correctly or I should
say they went they the nominee or the candidate that
(26:28):
that Ohio voted for has been the president, the one
who won the presidential race in like dozens of of
of elections, maybe not dozens, but they've been voting correctly
for the president, correctly picking the president. I feel like
I'm digging myself deeper into a hole here. Anyway. What
(26:49):
that says about Ohio is that, wow, Ohio is like
really a thinking group politically speaking, because we have had
Republican presidents and we have had Democrat president through throughout
the last few decades and Ohio has you know, voted
uh differently, you know, just about every time. And that
says that Ohio is the longstanding swing state. Well, Ohio
(27:11):
is flipped in two thousand and sixteen, and there's a
lot of political observers who are like, Ohio is now
leans conservative, now a red state, and that's a really
surprising turn of events. For Yeah, I think Colorado, Ohio
and Virginia are three of the traditional swing states that
have been taken off that list, Arizona and Georgia. I
don't think Texas is officially on the list at all,
(27:33):
but I think because Texas has always been so solidly conservative,
for it to eke towards the Democrats at all just
makes it a lot of Hey, so there's a lot
more talk about it on the news and stuff like
that because there's so much media influence, and I think
that the liberal media probably thinks that, like, oh, Texas
(27:53):
is leaning, maybe we can help push him over the edge.
We talk about it all the time. Yeah, probably, um,
because that's how things work if you listen to the
polling podcast. Uh. And like you mentioned earlier, in Minnesota,
UM hasn't voted for a Republican in in about fifty years,
and they are you know, they have inched a little bit, right. Yeah.
I think Trump just missed Minnesota and Clinton just barely one.
(28:18):
Minnesota by like three and Maine by one and a
half percent. So those two are definitely in play like
they haven't been in a while. Should we take another break.
Let's take another break, and then we're gonna come back
and talk about get this swing states, Josh and Shock
(28:50):
and things like stop so Chuck. One of the things
that we talked about early on is that UM swing
states basically tell campaigns where they need to concentrate their focus,
(29:13):
their money, their candidates time. Uh, you know, election stops,
that kind of thing, stumping UM and they do that
like that's that's where the vast majority of the money
goes is it's advertising campaigns in these swing states. Florida
is a really good example of a longstanding swing state
that gets tons and tons of advertising money. Yeah. Florida
(29:36):
is such an interesting state to me because it is
it's really hard to pin down politically, and I think
it's because, I think, more so than almost any other
state except maybe California, I feel like there are more
versions of Florida than almost any other state has versions
(29:58):
of itself. Absolutely, and it's not I mean, Florida is
not small. It's not the side of California. But you know,
you think about the Gulf Coast and then inland from
the Gulf Coast, very different people. Yeah, the people Inland
wouldn't be caught dead in Florabama. Yeah. You think about
Miami Beach and that area and in Key West and
(30:20):
Fort Lauderdale, and then you've got the interior of like
the Tampa Clearwater area, which is really different. And then
let's not forget about the most magical place on Earth, Orlando. Well,
you've got Orlando, and then you've also got up in
the north, you know, borderline Georgia. You have places like
Jacksonville and St. Augustine, and just Florida has so many
different kinds of places within its own state that it
(30:43):
doesn't surprise me that it's really hard to pin down
politically because it's hard to pin down just sort of culturally,
I think, right, and because you have so many different
places that geographically informed the voters, um, that are so
demographically diverse, all in one state, then that of course
is going to be a swing state in Florida probably
(31:04):
always will be a swing state just for those reasons.
So the retirees are a big um. They always point
to retirees in Florida traditional conservatives. But apparently the youngest
three generations amount to registered voters there now, so that's surprising. Yeah,
I mean, I guess the sad way to say it
is is that many of these people are dying. Yeah,
(31:28):
I mean, surely, I mean, there's an elderly population is
going to eventually die off, then you've got a younger
population is actually going to age into it. But it
seems like right now they're the elderly population in Florida
has been losing ground numbers wise, while the younger populations
have been gaining ground. There coming after you for a
state because you need all those young people to work
(31:50):
to take care of all those old peopleres So um,
Florida gets a tremendous amount of attention, a lot of money,
a lot of campaign visits, all that stuff. And because
it's a swing state, all swing states get that kind
of stuff um in presidential elections. But people in other states,
especially in solid states that have gone one way for
(32:13):
many many election cycles, those people say, well, hey, what
about us. We want attention, we want these campaign stops.
We have things that are important to us that we
want to talk to you about and hear from you about.
We don't care about Florida. We care about uh Idaho,
So come to Idaho and talk to us in Idaho.
And the candidate usually says like, I don't even know
(32:35):
where Idaho is. Please leave me alone. I'm trying to
pay attention to Florida and you're being very distracting right now. Yeah.
And here's the thing, Like, in my mind, I say,
who cares if a presidential candidate comes and talks to
people at a dumb rally, like like does that really matter?
But what they do is, you know, it's not just
a broad sort of let me make a stop there.
(32:56):
It's very pinpointed and calculated, like they might be going
after a really specific constituency there, like because how close
some of these swing states are. Uh, and they might say,
you know what, if we can get auto workers to
vote for you will be set. Or if we can
(33:16):
get people that work on on public roads and infrastructure
flipped our way, then we can win by a thousand votes.
And so they may make pit stops in these states
to go to the factory. I mean, that's why do
you do that stuff? It's not just to uh, you know,
it's I mean, it's it's all just very calculated and
very specific. Right because the viewer on TV is like, hey,
(33:39):
I work in a factory and they're in a factory
right now. They must mean that they really identify with
my needs and wants. Well, true, And that's someone from
another state that also just happens to work in a factory.
But the people in that state, I feel like, Wow,
they're here to talk to the coal miners, right. I
can't believe they came to Michigan. No one ever comes
to Michigan on purpose. Hey, we went to Michigan on
(34:02):
purpose once, are we? We haven't ragged on Detroit in
a long time. No, it's been a while, but that's
really what we're talking about. Michigan is code for Detroit
when you're talking about not going to Michigan. But it's
just interesting how pinpointed and how um just like razor
sharp and focused and laser focus campaigns are these days
with talking to very specific groups of people. If they
(34:25):
think they can win a thousand votes out of a state,
that that could make a difference. It can because again
here's here's why a thousand lit literally a thousand votes
could make the president UM in a state because of
that winner take all electoral votes. Whereas if like those
states use the district system like Maine in Nebraska, UM,
(34:48):
you know, if you won, you might get half of
the delegates and they get the other half. Basically, but
the fact that it's winner take all is that. Yeah,
those extra thousand votes really count in a good sized
state for ten electoral votes twenty electoral votes, So it's
definitely worth spending that much time and focus on one
(35:08):
single state, and a lot of other states resent a
lot of non swing states. So safe states resents swing
states because they say, basically, it's up to Ohio and
Virginia to decide who gets to be president. The rest
of us are going to go vote is we're expected
to because if you're in a safe state, it doesn't
matter if you win by a thousand votes or win
by a million votes. You're gonna it's winner take all
(35:31):
again too, So you're not gonna pay that much attention,
and really you're not in a way, you're not producing
the president. That's a little cynical in my opinion, because
without that solid safe state, you wouldn't have that foundation
that the president the candidate is building the swing state
um electoral votes off of. I don't think that's fully accurate,
(35:52):
but there does seem to be like some sour grapes
among safe state people. That makes sense to me most
of all. Chuck when you're talking walking about people who
feel like their vote is wasted because they're voting for
the party. That's the opposite of how the state traditionally goes.
So if you're a Georgia voter and you're a Democrat
(36:12):
for the last several elections, you could very easily feel
like your vote was so wasted you might not even
bother going to the pulse because your vote in this
sense of electoral college. And this is a really good
reason to do away with the electoral college. As far
as the electoral college is concerned, your vote didn't count you.
You had no reason to go vote as far as
(36:34):
electing the president goes, because it was washed away and
drowned out by all the other votes that went towards
the other candidate. And since it's a winner take all
system of electoral votes, that that your vote didn't matter
because they were always going to win all those delegates
because you were going to get out voted. Right. But um,
and and I'm glad you said president specifically, you should
(36:57):
always vote for the president, of course, But um, there
are so many ballot measures in local um local considerations
on the ballot local elections that really have such an
impact that you always always always vote UM. But it's
almost like It's almost like filling out your census form.
In a way, it's the only information that we have
(37:18):
of where a state is politically, is you casting your vote.
So if you cast your vote in Georgia like I do,
and Donald Trump wins Georgia, again, it's not a wasted
vote because the Democratic Party will look up the numbers
and say, wow, you know, like they're doing. Now, look
how many you know, Stacy Abrams almost got elected. The
first African American female governor in the United States, almost
(37:41):
won in Georgia in an election that many people thought
was undermined by the Republican candidate with voter suppression, and
that was a big deal. So now that's why so
much attention is on Georgia, because it's like you're filling
out your little census thing, you're casting that vote, and
they're saying, Okay, well George is in the mix. Now
we're gonna We're gonna campaign in Georgia. Moore. Plus, also,
(38:02):
there's another really good reason to vote in those situations
as well. Um, Like, I'm sure other voters in Vermont
who felt like they were probably wasting their vote in
two but they went dutifully to the polls and exercise
their real, basic important right as a citizen there, right
to vote. Um. And Bill Clinton ended up flipping the state.
Had those people been like it's just a waste to
(38:24):
vote anyway and stay at home, that state wouldn't have
been flipped. The same goes for Wisconsin or Michigan for
Trump in two thousand sixteen. Um. So there's a lot
of good reasons to go out and vote, even if
you feel like your vote is wasted. That's just it's
just too cynical, you know, And I understand especially in
(38:44):
the in the during the coronavirus pandemic. You know, things
are definitely different, but under normal circumstances, especially the idea
of just staying home and not voting unless you're protesting
against your party's candidate. That's different. But candidate okay, sure,
I mean just the idea of getting out to the
polls on election dame, participating in government on that one
(39:07):
day every four years. Even it's important, it's it's just
important in ways that you can't fully put your finger on,
but you just know it's important and important enough to
just do it. Well, it's a right that people in
this country literally lost their lives to ensure and it's
a right that not everyone in this country had until
fairly recently. Uh, and so it would be a very
(39:29):
sort of privileged. I know that word is thrown around
a lot, but it's a it's a truly privileged frame
of mind to think, why bother voting when so many
people in this country, women and people of color didn't
even have the right to vote, and you know, within
the last like hundred years. So it just that's something
that that's the only thing that really burns me up.
(39:50):
Vote for whoever you want to vote for. But if
you sit at home and you don't even vote, then
just get out and you know what, Yeah, vote or die,
as he did, he says. Yeah. So one other thing
that really has grabbed me in the last like several
years is the the idea. You know, when I was
a younger, lad, I was like, voting doesn't even matter,
(40:12):
doesn't count. Everything is controlled by the illuminati anyways, right, So, um,
the idea that that the Russians are meddling in our
election and that the the candidates take um the the
election so seriously. In super paxuris so much money to
spend and try to sway people's public opinions. The idea
(40:34):
that that actually happens in real life, to me, goes
to support the idea that your votes actually do count,
that voting really does matter in the United States still,
and things are not so thrown off course and controlled
and under the thumb of people who who um, you know,
are really pulling the strings and calling the shots that
that actually doesn't exist, That in reality, voting matters, and
(40:57):
I think that the threats to voting that we've seen
over the last like several years, UM have really kind
of driven that home for me. Yeah, And you know what,
by the time this comes out, will be a couple
of months to go before the election, UM, or actually
maybe one month to go. Check your voter registration. Make
sure you know where you're going to vote. If you're
(41:17):
voting early, make sure you understand that if you're voting
absentee or by mail, make sure you fully understand how
that all works. Don't be surprised on election day. You
don't want any surprises. You want to make sure you
know exactly how you're going to vote and that you
can ensure that you can vote absolutely UM. Go to
(41:38):
USA dot gov to check out voter registration UM, and
to make sure that you are like to confirm that
you're registered to vote. I still check. Yeah, I checked
recently too, and I tweeted it out on the Stuff
You Should Know podcast M Twitter platform to totally UM.
And we should put a bow on this one by
talking a little bit about the National Popular Vote Interstate
(42:00):
Compact and this, uh, the n p V. I see,
this is a group of states that advocate for a
different plan moving forward. Uh. These are states and people
that say, how can a candidate win by three million
votes or five thousand votes and not be president? Because
that is clearly not the will of the people. We
(42:22):
have a broken system. Let's get rid of this electoral college.
And right now there are Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Vermont,
New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland,
d C. And Hawaii are all signed up in a
past legislation to enter this compact, with several more pending. Ohio, Pennsylvania,
(42:47):
South Carolina, and Virginia are pending. Right. And so what
this compact says is the state signs onto the compact
that says, UM, under normal electoral college rules, we um
give our electoral votes to whoever wins the statewide ballot. Instead,
we're going to give it to whoever wins the national vote,
the national popular vote. So even if say, um, Joe
(43:10):
Biden loses Idaho, if Idaho was signed on to this
and this thing, we're in effect, but he won the
national popular vote, Idaho would give its electoral votes to Biden.
So that the states are gonna follow the popular vote
and basically go around the electoral college, not using by
using the electoral college. Yeah, because you can't abolish it. It
It would take a constitutional amendment and ratification by thirty
(43:33):
eight states I believe to get rid of the electoral college.
This requires none of that. It's the states signing on
to go around the electoral college by using the electoral college.
And I mean we should say to the electoral college
is part of the Framer's vision for the Constitution, but
they specifically added this provision to keep the popular vote
(43:54):
from selecting the president. They wanted to keep this elite
group of politicos in charge of who actually picked the president.
And that's they created the electoral college to get in
the way of the popular vote. Yeah, it's interesting, it
really is. So that's swing states. Ah, that swing states.
If you want to know more about swing states, start
(44:15):
reading up on swing states, start reading up on politics.
It's pretty interesting stuff. And like we said earlier, go vote,
just vote. Uh. And since I said that, everybody's time
for listener mail. Uh. This is from McKenna bridge And
this is in defensive baby carrots. Uh. Just like Chuck,
the thought of baby carrots disgusted me in the past,
(44:37):
conjuring up, conjuring up images of towering piles of food
waste that I imagined where the byproduct of these smooth
little suckers. But we got it all wrong, my friend.
While the baby carrot is of course a very manicured
and aesthetically fleasing version of the real carrot pulled straight
from the soil, their invention basically changed the entire carrot
industry forever. Uh. And there was a guy name Mike
(45:01):
euro Sick who decided to smooth carrots down in the
nineteen eighties into these little, aerodynamic, bite sized cylinders, and
they were called baby carrots. Uh. He figured carrots are
ugly and uh, too plentiful to profit to profit from
his farmers, so they had a long growing season and
the people just weren't buying them. So Mike Yousroic, I'm sorry,
(45:24):
Eurosic introduces the baby carrot, and boom carrot sales absolutely skyrocketed,
and even today's baby carrots frequently top the list for
the largest share of supermarket sales. Asking about the peels, guys, well,
they are just about the perfect byproduct for making carrot
juice baby character tasty, convenient, and turns out a wonderful
(45:45):
invention the more you know, right, Anyway, I'm not completely
caught up on your podcast, so maybe someone's beat me
to the punch, but I didn't want to chance y'all
making fools of yourself the next time baby baby Carrots
comes up. Think you guys are great. To keep up
the amazing work. You're a listener and baby carrot convert
McKenna bridge and I even looked it up too, and
(46:06):
I think I saw that it was a myth that
they are bleached. M but it sounds like something I
would buy into. It sounds like something i'd buy into.
Two big carrot or I'm sorry, small carrot carrots are bleached.
The Illuminati really runs things, So you know that I
haven't fully vetted all that, but that's what mckinnabridge says,
is that they really turned around carrots as a whole
(46:28):
and that they do use those uh shavings. That's really
carret juice, is what she says. Well, McKenna, that was
really great stuff. Thank you for trying to keep us
from making fools of ourselves again. It's not gonna know,
it won't stick. If you want to get in touch
with us, like McKenna did, you can send us an
email to Stuff podcast at iHeart radio dot com. Stuff
(46:54):
you should know is a production of iHeart Radios. How
stuff works for more podcasts for my heart radio because
that the iHeart Radio a Apple podcasts are wherever you
listen to your favorite shows. H m hm
Stuff You Should Know News
Hosts And Creators
Chuck Bryant
Josh Clark
Show Links
AboutOrder Our BookStoreSYSK ArmyRSSPopular Podcasts
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com