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August 9, 2023 60 mins

Is the streaming bubble finally happening? Spotify is doing better than its yearly lows but is the industry in dire need for a correction on future growth? While, Joe examines the psychology of throwing things at artists. This and More on The Biztape!



 

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Spotify’s future:

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Does streaming have any room to grow?

Speaker 2 (00:04):
And how to get fans to stop growing? Stuff on stage.
You're listening to.

Speaker 1 (00:23):
Welcome to the Biz tape You're All Things Music, Business
and Media podcast. I'm Rst. Colin McKay with my lovely
host Coast to Coast Joseph Waizowski, joining us with a hello, relaxed,
positive attitude.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
Very relaxed, very pause paused, very good attitude today. I
started the day out wonderful, Colin, because I was awoken
by my cat getting into a fight with another cat outside.

Speaker 1 (00:56):
I was about to say, how does that work?

Speaker 2 (01:00):
Well, the door was open somehow, and I guess was
just wide opened all night. Wait, yeah, so you after
I heard my partner going, I heard my partner, I
was I like, like, my partner got up to like
get ready for work or whatever, and I was like

(01:20):
being lazy and I was sleeping in okay, and all
of a sudden I hear oh fuck oh fuck, oh
oh fuck oh oh, as I thought someone was in
our house. Yeah. I mean it was a lot of
low growling and hissing and it was scary and she

(01:44):
was all poofed out, but she chills out.

Speaker 1 (01:47):
So the door was open before wide open before my
partner did for hours, Like how wide open? Like give
me like a percentage, Like like the door is wide open.
All the ways went to the door. It was like
someone had walked in. There was wide wide open, it

(02:09):
was open for business. There should have been an open
sign on the back letting everybody know they could just
walk in there.

Speaker 2 (02:17):
I really should have. But what's funny, Like we keep
her in the bathroom because she like we put a
little cozy nest in there for at night because she'll
she'll just go in a studio and she'll just go
crazy and like break shit and like it's it's insane.
But then like you know, in the morning time, once
we're like if we like get up to go to
the bathroom or something, we'll like let her out. And

(02:41):
I mean we let her out. I didn't even notice
the door might have been open.

Speaker 1 (02:46):
Yeah, if you want to meet Joe, he has an
open door policy. Please come on by. Uh yeah, just
come on over.

Speaker 2 (02:54):
I want to look back to Marco. I'm like back
to Marco where I invite a bunch of teenagers.

Speaker 1 (03:00):
It's just like chill and very easy going and just
wants you to be invited into their home.

Speaker 2 (03:05):
I don't know if l A and chill should be
in the correct like in the same.

Speaker 1 (03:10):
Sentence, fair fairer.

Speaker 2 (03:12):
Se, But yeah, my door.

Speaker 1 (03:14):
Is locked, just for reference. But this is where we differ.
You know, Tomato, Tomato you open, do you eave doors? Wide? Open? Eye?
Close mine and lock them. We're just two different people
in the same world.

Speaker 2 (03:29):
We are.

Speaker 1 (03:30):
And you know, mine is so much more of a
popular populated area in Nashville. There's just so many more
people here, and just people walking down the street in Nashville,
there's just so many more in La.

Speaker 2 (03:45):
Nashville is very metrop Metropotolitan is a word we're gonna say.

Speaker 1 (03:50):
Nashville is very Mesopotamia. And I was like, hello, it's
very Mesopotamic. It thrives off of its Mesopotamia. It's the
Kuni form here is insane. Anyway, Joe, who wants to
start today in music business News?

Speaker 2 (04:05):
After that bit, I'll start. I'm down, Okay, So the
big news from Billboard, The big question is how do
we get fans to stop throwing shit on stage?

Speaker 1 (04:20):
And our favorite recurring segment stopped throwing people on stage exactly.

Speaker 2 (04:26):
So we've talked about this for weeks now, which Colin
is alluded to about how huge artists such as Cardi b, Baby, Rexa,
Little nase X, and Pink have all had shit thrown
at them while they are performing on stage, such as
weaponized iPhones, which was the case for Rexa, they got
pelted in the face by some random dude who just

(04:48):
chucked it full force to someone's mom's ashes. In the
case of Pink.

Speaker 1 (04:55):
Which I had the delight of telling Joe about.

Speaker 2 (04:58):
Yeah, which there's a lot of layers to that one,
some of which I don't I think Pink probably still
thinks about.

Speaker 1 (05:07):
So I get what you mean, because like we kind
of had a debate about is this like higher than usual?
Are we also just you know, maybe more observant in
the digital age with phones or people just more you know,
down of throw stuff with people, you know what I mean?
So what does Billboard have to say about this? How

(05:27):
can we have some you know, this world's got a
lot of problems. We don't have a lot of solutions.
Here we go Boards go Well.

Speaker 2 (05:35):
Billboard states that this crowd phenomenon is not really that
new to the music world, and they referenced like, you know,
underwear being tossed at Tom Jones while he's performing, Like
mixtapes being tossed at, like there's this big DJ called
girl Talk, And even a live chicken was tossed on

(05:58):
stage with Alice Cooper who thought that if he threw
it back into the crowd, the chicken would fly. And
the chicken did not fly. So I don't know if
that chicken's alive anymore. But anyways, it's definitely not new, right,

(06:19):
Like things like this have happened before. I think what's
different is that instead of trying to gain attention and
approval from the celebrities performing on stage, a lot of
these recent like throwers are trying to get the approval, yeah,
an attention from the audience themselves. They're trying to get

(06:44):
famous basically from doing this stuff. They're trying to like
have their fifteen minutes of fame, and it's kind of
amped up. I think like the more and more coverage
that is talked about with some of this off, the
more and more people want to do it so that
they could on the news, you know, But yeah, like

(07:06):
why is this the case in general? John Jury, who
is a professional professor and of sociology at the University
of Sussex. Let me read it many too many s,
you know, like keep that in what I want people

(07:26):
to know. I struggled so hard. John Drury, who is
a professor of social psychology at the University of Sussex,
and states that it is a residual impact from COVID,
arguing that fans are quote out of practice and a

(07:50):
lot are new to the concert scene, and of course
people are seeking attention from those people and have seen
that people get online and go viral from doing this stuff.
So yeah, I mean he kind of confirmed the case
for like our hypothesis, right Colin, of like the previous

(08:10):
episode of US talking about this, of like COVID had
a major impact on the way people socialize, in the
way people interact with other people in public that I
think a lot of I think a lot of us
are kind of like not understanding and ignoring on like
a day to day level, right, Like, I mean, I'm

(08:32):
sure like everyone has felt this as well, but like,
like I have felt much more recluse post COVID than
previous and I think it's because it's just like, you know,
it's like two years of just like hunkering down pretty much.

Speaker 1 (08:48):
And like and have you know, we had a very
put one foot in front of the other mentality when
it came to life in business after COVID, And I
think you're saying a lot of people may inexplicably because
they had never examined their feelings and grief that they
went through in COVID, have had a personality shift. As

(09:10):
this professor of Sassafras has told us.

Speaker 2 (09:15):
I'm gonna get so many UK people that it gets
so mad.

Speaker 1 (09:19):
At least our schools keep going, That's what they're gonna
say to me.

Speaker 2 (09:25):
So how do we get people to stop throwing shit?
That is? That is the general question here? Well. Self
policing in fan groups seems to be the most ideal way,
as well as possibly the most effective, because when people
understand the rules from other fans, either being educated in

(09:46):
concert etiquette or by leading by example during the event,
it's like it tends to like like take away the
problem before the problem even happened. Yeah, pretty much. And
like I think a good example, right is, like I
think like a Taylor Swift concert is a good example

(10:08):
of that. Everybody knows that there's rules to it. It's
almost like there's even the show itself has like little
catchphrases that you say during like her sets, and like
like things that like people do during the set, and
like same with Harry Styles, where I literally witnessed a
whole line dancing section of a stadium during his set.

Speaker 1 (10:33):
It kind of reminds me of like the same weird
like formality that like Rocky Horror Picture show.

Speaker 2 (10:40):
You know. Yeah, and that's what I was going to
allude to. It's like some of these big event shows
are very much like it's a communal event, like everybody
wants to like pitch in and be part of it,
whereas like Rocky Horror Picture, you know, you're throwing spoons
at the screen. People want to throw spoons at people
in real life, as it seems. But yeah, it's like

(11:03):
even even at like you know, Harry Styles, He's had
shit tossed to him on stage, I didn't seen much
in the tailor realm. I think, like, to be honest,
most people attending Taylor concerts are a bit more versed
with the concert etiquette. But Billboard actually kind of like
notes that one of the main reasons that this could

(11:28):
be occurring is actually because of the concert experience itself.
Where you're kind of asking these people to be in
like very very in clothes, enclosed spaces with a lot
of people, a lot of crowd a lot of the
times you're waiting hours and hours. It's such a hassle
to get to a concert now, Like I feel like

(11:51):
I like went to a big show the other day
and I was like shocked with how much traffic there was.
In the same with Taylor Swift. Right, Like, if you're
driving to Taylor Swift and you're parking your car at
this like massive stadium lot, and then you're walking like
a mile to get to another line, which leads to

(12:14):
another line, which leads to security.

Speaker 1 (12:16):
Everybody then leads to.

Speaker 2 (12:18):
Your seat, and then if you want to go to
the bathroom, guess what, it's another line at the bathroom.
And then when the concert's over and you're heading out,
there's tons of people all heading out at the same time,
driving like in the same time, getting to their cars
at the same time, and it takes like two hours

(12:40):
to get out of concert when you're there at like
twelve am. Right, So people generally are like kind of
being caddled, for lack of a better term. And I
think like in a lot of cases, people like it's
kind of against human nature to some extent right to
just be like packed together this close and for this

(13:03):
long periods of time.

Speaker 1 (13:05):
Well, and one other think of it historically too. It's
definitely one that because I would say it's very akin
to how people who were pre nine to eleven thought
of flying, you know what I mean, Like you could
just get on a butt, you go up to the
tarmac of the plane, you know what I mean, right,

(13:25):
And then post nine to eleven, due to all the
security concerns and all that stuff, we made this all tighter,
and concerts have gotten the same way, right, Like, we
have done the same level of increased security due to
the you know, tragedies that have occurred through time, which
slows everything in the process, which I could totally see
could aggravate fans who feel like this should be easy.

(13:49):
I should just be able to walk in and take
a seat and then leave, right. But the scale of
these concerts has just gotten bigger. So that's another thing.
And then on top of that, it's.

Speaker 2 (14:00):
Just security, arous security.

Speaker 1 (14:02):
And also just these other systems at play that have
to be involved that just slow down the entire thing
and do end up adding to the fan for right reasons,
but psychologically probably could have an impact on someone's well
being being like I feel like I'm trapped here. Fuck it,
I'll just throw us out, you know what I mean,
Like that's I feel like it's just like I'm already

(14:23):
so tired as it is.

Speaker 2 (14:25):
Mm hmm, yeah. I mean. Another way that Drury actually
says it might be in an effective way is to
basically create like happy propaganda that showcases the fun side
of being together, a lot of togetherness and like helping
people and like you know, uh, just kind of spreading

(14:46):
that throughout, like I'm glad for that as Bonnaroo Bonneru
does a great job of that, Like a lot of
outdoor festivals do that. And so maybe it's like now
it's time, Oh, we need to start like migrating that into.

Speaker 1 (15:00):
Time for my dream to occur. We're gonna have the
weird race like in baseball, where like here's all the
tools racing on the side of the field before you know,
Taylor Swift starts and that'll be like the fun and
then we got hey, here, I'm Bob in the stands
and I'm with what's your name? Casey, Casey, if you
can answer these ten questions, we'll give you twenty five

(15:24):
hundred dollars to home depot.

Speaker 2 (15:28):
You know what I mean.

Speaker 1 (15:28):
I would love that, Like if I'm just waiting for
a concert, you know what I mean, Like if we
just started doing those kind of like baseball crowd kind
of things, because they're just so funny. They're honestly my
favorite part of the game sometimes.

Speaker 2 (15:41):
I remember I went to justin Timberlake at Bridgestone Arena
with my buddy Will.

Speaker 1 (15:47):
You've literally been talking about this concert for years I've
heard about.

Speaker 2 (15:51):
But literally the first off, the opener was like this
boy band right and like makes like yeah. I was like, okay, cool.
They were like fine. They weren't like mind blowing, the
songs weren't that good, you know, but they danced. They
danced their little hearts out, and I appreciated them for that.

(16:14):
But after every song they like were like, guys, if
you follow us and dm us, it enters you into
a competition today to where you could meet us back
stage and literally me well, looked at each other and

(16:35):
they did this like five times throughout the set. Too
many set. They did it so many times, and then
we were like, like, we looked at their account and
the account wasn't getting too much action. Colin, it was,
it wasn't doing well, and we were kind of like,
I think if we DM them, we would win, right,

(16:58):
somebody else is doing it.

Speaker 1 (16:59):
It reminds me that infamous like one of the one
of my favorite, like top ten year YouTube videos of
all time, which is Drew Gooden going to the uh
Jake Paul concert and like, yeah, all of the openers
do that the entire time. They're all like, hey, follow
me on Spotify, you like this, my name's DJ whatever,
And they do it like twenty times, so then it

(17:21):
becomes nothing. But I also wanted to add is like
in that way, there is a lot in which I
will give the NLB out of all things, I didn't
think they were gonna get a shout out, you know,
or you know, I think that they realize their sport
has a lot of boring stuff going on in the
middle of it while we're waiting for logistics to do right.

(17:43):
So it's kind of funny because now concerts on top
of it takes forever to get in there, it takes
forever to get out because of the systems of play
that we've all agreed are essential to provide safety. I
think on top of that, it's the length of the
concerts is insane too, you know what I mean, You're
just gonna have more fatigued people, right, So I'm not saying,

(18:04):
like mid show, it's not gonna be like, oh, Taylor, wait,
we're gonna do the corgy race in the middle of
the set, you know, Like no, like that's not what
we want. But what I mean is like, why isn't
there just like we're just all waiting here, you know
what I mean, Just let the house guys and the
entertainment crew being like we have a T shirt canon
for all the Taylor Swift fans who wants a T

(18:25):
shirt freaking shirt.

Speaker 2 (18:27):
I think a lot of that is is very dependent
on openers too, and that's why, like picking your opener
is very important. But a lot of acts tend to
not care who their openers are. Oh yeah, I mean
so sometimes it can like lead to people who are disgruntled,
weird pairings just wait, yeah, weird pairings, and like just

(18:47):
kind of people being like why am I listening to this?

Speaker 1 (18:49):
That was like I saw Bob Dylan when I was
like fifteen sixteen, told me about this concept. Here's another
for years and so here's one like that. I saw
Bob Dylan and it was at the Amphitheater near Atlanta,
and I was the Lakewood and literally we were there

(19:10):
and for some reason Bob Dylan, which was fine, but
I just was like not part of this crew of
people that was excited for this. They just had every
like kind of adjacent indie. And this was before Americana
really started becoming a term, but it was like indie
Americana adjacent would open and it was like four or

(19:31):
five bands before Bob Dylan, and so it was I
remember it was like at the time it was like
my Morning Jacket, which was okay, I like Jim James
better than I like My Morning Jacket. And it was
like it just wasn't the best performance I've ever seen. Also,
for some reason, Bob Weir was at every set. Bob
Weir would just come up and play for whatever. It

(19:53):
just felt very like individually, I'd probably be like I
like these bands, but for some reason, I like all together,
I was like this is too much. I just wanted
to see this person will co play, will co played too.
I was just like, it was just like two thousand.
It was like every kind of two thousands indie band.
But it was like too much, and I was just like, I,

(20:16):
you know, no offense to them. I bought these tickets
for Bob. And so this is kind of where I'm
thinking that maybe people get aggravated and start making stupid
decisions because then their emotions start to play and it
just spirals, you know what I mean.

Speaker 2 (20:30):
Yeah, I don't know it. I think a lot of
I think the majority of it is definitely like the
Internet fame, oh right, like the infamy that you get
from it, like people are excited about it.

Speaker 1 (20:42):
By the way, I wanted to add this story through
my kind of connections because you mentioned Cardi B. Because
if you guys didn't know, Cardi B had a drink
like directly thrown at her and she basically retaliated and
she threw a microphone at the person that threw the
drink at her. She was gonna get sued for a
second by that person, and then the lawsuit got dropped.

(21:04):
That was kind of the end of the story. But
through the connections, I know in audio, I've seen a
link to it and it's still up. I actually went
and checked it. The company that owns the microphone is
auctioning it for charity right now, and it's just a
regular This is the post on eBay. You can find it.
It's sure accient digital Mike CARDI b through at a

(21:26):
person auctioned for charity.

Speaker 2 (21:29):
Shit, that's so genius.

Speaker 1 (21:30):
It is, okay, And then like, I mean, I don't
know if this is truly gonna happen because it's eBay.
I'm you know, hoping the best that this is what
it's for. It said, I would they would do something
good with the profit. They like, go into how they
have this connection or whatever. They're the local sound company
that provides it. They said, one percent of the property
will be our profit will be split between two charities.

(21:53):
First charity is the Las Vegas charity called the Friendship
Circle Las Vegas. The Friendship Circle is an organization that
has teens and young adultsvolunteer helping children, teens and other
young adults with special needs. And the second is the
Wounded Warrior Project. Right the microphone's at ninety nine thousand dollars.

Speaker 2 (22:10):
Holy shit, that's insane.

Speaker 1 (22:13):
The microphone itself probably like just an equipment like no, no, no,
this is an accident digital like handheld, so it's an
eighty two. So it's like it's you know, I deal
with this all the time, which is so funny that
I kind of get, you know, off the price. It's
about a grand yeah, push you get the uh. I

(22:35):
guess there's a fifty eight capsule on the top, so
it's probably like eleven hundred dollars. Yeah. Anyway, I thought
that was funny.

Speaker 2 (22:43):
I was.

Speaker 1 (22:43):
I was like, this is literally becoming such an event
to people being like this is a point in history
because of the throwing stuff that people are literally going,
I will put literally top dollar on this.

Speaker 2 (22:55):
Well. Yeah, and that's that's another thing, is like that
internet kind of historic moment, right, is like that's what
people get their high on, right from like throwing shit that. Yeah,
and I and I hope like eventually that's going to
die out, as like the fad of it dies out.

(23:15):
But what they were saying too in the article is like,
I mean one of the biggest ways is being strict
when someone crosses the line, such as the fanny throw
through the phone at baby Rexo, which is now he's
now facing credal charges. Yeah, yeah, from throwing that he
might fell in eve jail time. Yeah, so it's should

(23:41):
just not throw shit on stage.

Speaker 1 (23:43):
Also in terms of bad takes, which I understand, maybe
the sentiment I saw this going around. I don't know
if you saw Jelly Roll talk about this at all,
but basically I'll give him some diligence here. He he
basically said, quote, I've been getting shit thrown at me
my whole career. Dude, I can't believe people are throwing

(24:03):
such a fuss aback getting stuff thrown at them. And
then he said, uh, you know, like people he knows
have agged them on the crowd and then you know
kind of like play stupid games, get superprises. But it's
like kind of like these people aren't doing it. A
lot of these people that are getting stuff thrown at them.
But he said, quote, I'm not making light of getting

(24:24):
thrown stuff thrown at them, but I grew up in bars.
I've been getting ship thrown at me, I've been having
beers thrown at me. I've jumped off stage and gotten
in physical fights in the early days, and basically saying, yeah, well,
I think maybe it's a little bit like I'm tough.

Speaker 2 (24:40):
Yeah, guys, I've fought shit like everyone.

Speaker 1 (24:44):
I think it's that's kind of part of his mystique.
But like he's kind of like, I'm tough, you know
what I mean. But like at the same time I
would say I know, I would say, I'd be like, man,
you just you can't. In the same way, he has
this example with Yellow Yellow Wolf where he said yellow
Wolf had the audacity to say that you can't hit

(25:05):
me with the bottle rocket and got dozens of them.
He had to ask them to stop. I'm like, Jelly Roll,
you're asking the same thing.

Speaker 2 (25:12):
He's only human after all.

Speaker 1 (25:14):
Oh god, a god no. But like basically anyway, that's
kind of my point is like Jelly Roll is like,
I'm tough. I got this, and I'm like, I'm not
agoning it all, And I'm like, you just did a
thing where you said I'm tough, you know what I mean.
I don't care people are making too big of a

(25:36):
deal of it. But literally, when people are getting black
eyes on stage, and also it's just a stepping stone,
right if people think this is normal behavior at a concert,
someone's gonna do something, someone's gonna throw something more dangerous,
you know what I mean?

Speaker 2 (25:50):
Yeah, and like not to be like this. Ultimately, it's
concerts should be a safe environment for everyone, right, that
should be the line.

Speaker 1 (26:02):
And a bare minimum. We should be disincentivizing throwing stuff, right,
Like we shouldn't be exactly you're an artist, you should
just be able to take it. It should just be like,
uh no, this shouldn't happen at all, even if it
was like something that's not gonna you know, immediately kill you.
It's like we should, like you said, have disincentive likezation
of the whole thing going like no, if you throw

(26:25):
stuff at them, you're out of here, because it disincentivizes
someone throwing something even crazier, you know what I mean.

Speaker 2 (26:31):
Yeah, I think that's the biggest thing is like a
lot of these venues need to have a zero tolerance
mentality on it. Yeah, as harsh as that is, but
like if you throw something on stage, you need to
be just kicked out of the show.

Speaker 1 (26:44):
And you don't know, like you just don't know, like
some of the things, Like I think it's also a
slippery slope kind of thing where you know, if you
kind of allow this, then you're gonna get more dangerous
stuff that'll kind of permeate through. And then on top
of that, mundane things can be very dangerous, Like a
beer bottle could be very dangerous if it hits you
in the right way, you know what I mean.

Speaker 2 (27:04):
So I's dangerous, right, and you gotta think that the
biggest shiner I've seen.

Speaker 1 (27:11):
Well, you got to think too, like these are people
that if they're not like they're looking at hundreds of
people in front of their siteline at one time. It's
not like you're in a room with someone and you
feel like there's a chance they could throw something at it,
so you can kind of ready your body like it's
like this can come from absolute no nowhere. You can
get completely blindsided up there. So things that are mundane

(27:32):
can get really dangerous really fast.

Speaker 2 (27:35):
Mm hmm. Well, Colin, are you gonna throw anything on
stage anytime soon? And so what what would you throw
on stage? I?

Speaker 1 (27:47):
No comment would throw.

Speaker 2 (27:50):
Probably my what would I throw my support? It's a
good one. That's a good one, But you know what
I'd actually I'm gonna throw my smoke detector because it's
been beeping too much and I don't want to deal
with anything.

Speaker 1 (28:10):
I have one smoke detector currently not in its socket
because it kept beeping. Anyway, Joe's leeman doors open. I'm
going to die in a fire. You know, these are
the things that we live at. Anyway, what's talking about
my story? Spotify? Let's go into this. I like talking

(28:30):
about Spotify every time on the show because people always
wonder why I talk about Spotify a lot, because they
are the poster triital of music streaming, so if something's
happening with them, it's kind of happening to everybody, right,
And so we talked about it, like the last time
we really talked about it, like the stock had rallied.
I mean, like I've been talking about it since, you know,
the whole Joe Rogan, Neil Young thing that tank the stock,

(28:55):
and then we've had the bubble kind of bursts for
a lot of these streaming model companies over the last year,
you know and everything. So, what the heck's going on
with Spotify? Well, it's not great, but it's not bad,
but it's definitely something that needs some answers basically, and
I kind of have a radical answer that music business
world wide asks and has been asked apparently multiple times,

(29:18):
is what they say, so, I've wanted to get into it,
but first let me give you some context. Spotify again
is doing better than it has done of late. Like
it's kind of you know, the stock's rallied up, but
it's nowhere close to the heights it was during twenty
twenty anything close to that. And you know, with all
these streaming companies, they have the same problem, which is

(29:40):
that they're just not consistently profitable, right, Like they're just
not profit They'll maybe have one quarter and they're consistently
not They're all steen growth stocks, and as the economy
and the interest rates get worse, people are asked, where
is my money? Right, so they have a lot of
pressure on them. Spotify's revenue as of care, because we

(30:00):
finally have these Q two numbers, Spotify had the revenue
of three point one eight billion euros. Remembering that Spotify
is a European company, which was thirty million dollars under
analysts like predictions. So they fell under their predictions. Still
making money, but not as much as people think they should.
So this caused the stock to fall over fourteen percent

(30:25):
last Tuesday, and now it sits close to that amount
down as well. Now, so people are wondering, where can
Spotify get this more money? You know what I mean?
Where can we get this more money? And I'll hit
on it later. You know, there's a lot of prevailing
theory that we're getting close to the market utilization and

(30:45):
market cap of how many people can join streaming for
the first time. Right, And I'll get into that whole
conversation at the end. But Music Business Worldwide asserts the
question what if Spotify got rid of the free tier
to generate more revenue, like completely got rid of the tier.

(31:05):
And according to the Music Business Worldwide, they say they've
actually been getting this question a lot. So this is
why they, you know, did a pretty good research article
about it, and they say, quote a couple of high
profile music execs have even been asking them over and
over and I was like, vague, but okay, Music Business Worldwide,
I'll take it because I like your articles. But some

(31:28):
of their competition has joined the likes of like the
No Free Service Club. I will say they're not alone.
Their biggest competitor Apple, Their bread and butter is the
free you know, kind of like six months on Verizon
all that kind of stuff. So not nothing like that,
but some of the smaller fauna have done it. So
we have a Gnana Deezer and now the newly named

(31:48):
TikTok Music. All don't have a free service whatsoever. That
used to be a Rezo if you remember me talking
about that months ago.

Speaker 2 (31:56):
TikTok Music Live.

Speaker 1 (31:58):
Now, it's not live in the United States yet. It
has some trial runs in Australia and a couple other territories.
It has not launched in the United States. When I
was talking about Rizzo and their music streaming platform, this
is the same platform, but they've now rebranded it to
TikTok Music, and it's definitely going to come to the

(32:18):
United States eventually. So they're taking it slow, but they
from the get go, and even in these other territories
that are traditionally have more free members in them, they
are starting off, hey, you got to pay for the service.
So music business worldwide is like, hey, Spotify is not
alone on this. There's some other competitors that are going
with this, and they've kind of made some calculations and

(32:41):
assertions to calculate what has Spotify got to gain if
they tried to convert specifically all their United States and
Canada free users to page users because that is overall
the biggest market in general for streaming but also for
free music right and so Music Businusiness Worldwide estimates through

(33:01):
a bunch of math you can read the article below,
which we link all our articles below, estimates that there's
forty eight point six million free users that are actively
in the United States and Canada.

Speaker 2 (33:14):
Damn.

Speaker 1 (33:14):
That is also that estimation basically came with another estimation
that they're making around two hundred and twenty million dollars
a year in ADS on the platform. Basically, so if
you think about it, if we made all of these
free users into paid users, they would lose the two

(33:35):
hundred and twenty million dollars in AD revenue, but they
would gain more money from people paying a flat subscription fee.
But obviously, if you're trying to convert everybody to free,
from free to paid, you're gonna have some people that
just say no. So Music Business Worldwide did some more
calculations and they estimate that about and this is a range,

(33:56):
about a third of them would have to become premium
service to offset the loss of AD revenue. So fourteen
million people of those three million people would have to
start paying for Spotify for it to just break even,
right again, A lot of this is estimation because Spotify

(34:20):
has this very lucrative market in the United States and Canada,
as many streaming services do, and there's a lot of
estimation of how much money they make off specifically each
user because in Canada and the United States that it's
just more efficient how that money goes basically, so instead
like if you have a twelve dollar subscription, Spotify could

(34:40):
make eight dollars in reality off of you because they
have their costs and other things and you know, just
very very nerdy money things where they just lose money
in that transaction. So basically, depending on the range of
how much money they actually make per subscriber, which they're
never going to tell you, they have to convert between

(35:03):
that one third twenty nine percent to eighteen percent of
those free people to cover the cost of ad revenue,
which is actually like like a third is where it
starts getting gargantuan, but like eighteen percent, you know, conversion
rate is not out of this world, you know what
I mean, Like to get people to pay for the
service that some of these free users have been using

(35:24):
for years, so they're kind of addicted to it, so
they're probably just going to pay for it. And we
saw that with as well. Netflix I mentioned briefly and
I'll mention them again. Probably in this story is a
couple of shows ago when Netflix did their hole. Hey,
if you got another account, you know, you got to
buy another account, like you can't share it with all

(35:46):
your family. You know, it's all ip based, all that
kind of stuff, so we'll know if you're not in
the same household. That has gone over remarkably well. So
I think this is what's spurring these conversations is that
Spotify probably could have a good, good margin to recruit
these free members to premium members, even when Netflix as

(36:06):
an example. There's also two arguments to supplement the risk
of trying to convert these free users. Number One, Spotify's
ad sector actually operates at a loss. They lose money
on this two hundred and twenty million dollars. It costs
more money to Spotify to get pitch well in the

(36:29):
whole advertising machine. So like it costs money for Spotify
to curtail the certain ads, to Spotify, it costs money
to manage all these ads, you know, to effectively distribute
them through the platform. And have the staff to distribute them.
They lose money on their ad sector business right now.

(36:50):
So that's one thing. And then on top of that
number two ads. You know, if you're looking for a
less risky approach, ads to have to go all away.
They could have a lowered price model like a Netflix,
where some ads could be on the platform, but you
still have to pay right Like Netflix has their lower

(37:11):
tier that's like eight dollars, nine dollars, I think, but
you have some ads and like Hannah Montana, they could
have the best of both worlds. But the last incentive
I will say is that many in the industry are
theorizing and you may have heard me say this before
that we're kind of hidden the cap on how many

(37:32):
people are left to gain into the streaming marketplace. And
I'm talking about like people that are like what you know,
I could join, you know kind of stuff, people who
have dipping their toes. Finally, in right, Will Page, who
is actually Spotify's former chief economists, argues that there are
only one hundred and ten million qualified households who have

(37:53):
the capacity and expendable income to pay for streaming, which
is a lot, but there's some concerning numbers with that, right,
the general growth of like getting more streaming users per
year is stagnating. So eight new million, like eight million
new paying subscribers join the music streaming you know, industry

(38:16):
in twenty twenty two, which sounds great, right, Like if
I told you eight million more people decided to take
the plunge into streaming, that sounds great.

Speaker 2 (38:24):
Yeah, but that's like so tiny in comparison to the
global population.

Speaker 1 (38:28):
Well yeah, and on top of that, the rate of
growing is not happening, like it's stagnating. So it was
eight million new people in twenty twenty two. In twenty
twenty one, it was eight point five million. In twenty
twenty Remember you got to keep in mind the pandemic
like boom with this number, it was fifteen point one million,

(38:50):
but in twenty nineteen it was thirteen point five million.
So less people are getting on the streaming train because
they're just they're capping on the market. There's no more
way that could utilize this, right, It is estimated that apparently,
which remember that one hundred and ten million marker that
Will Page said is probably the top of it. Again,

(39:12):
this is a very respected economists in this field. One
hundred and ten million qualifying households. It's estimated the streaming
industry is already at about the ninety two million dollar mark.

Speaker 2 (39:25):
Damn.

Speaker 1 (39:26):
So if we were continuing on with this eight million
a year, which we're not, it's gonna get slower. And
then on top of that, the last few holdouts are
going to be harder and harder to acquire. We at
most probably have like four to five years of like
before we hit market capitalization, Like there's no more like, oh,
you know, I've never tried this. This is like everybody

(39:48):
that's gonna stream has streamed, and it's going to go
down to a nearer war between everybody, which is what
I was going to leave you on before me and
Joe talk kind of general thoughts, it said in the
article quote this near saturation, Paige suggests, will ultimately see
the herb herbifore. Sorry, Herb, I can't say it. I'm

(40:10):
the Joe. We're gonna leave this in for you. You have
this and I have this. The herbivore behavior of music
streaming in the United States today will transform into a
carnivore behavior. Where there was more unconverted music streaming subscribers
available in the US market, streaming services will have to
switch to stealing each other's customers.

Speaker 2 (40:33):
Damn.

Speaker 1 (40:34):
So yeah, this is where it's gonna get interesting. Because
remember when I was saying that all these people say
that Spotify's a growth company, this is proving there's nowhere
left to grow, yeah, right, and so in the industry
in general. So that means we're gonna go into for

(40:56):
lack of a better term, which actually I really like
the term, carnivore behavior. We're gonna have more of a
direct you know, we've had And Joe tell me if
I'm wrong. I feel like this. I feel like a
lot of streaming services when I was coming up and
streaming became like a thing. Really we're all like we
pride ourselves on good business. We're really good, you know

(41:18):
what I mean. We have all of this, and then
it's gonna become less of that, and it's gonna become
We're much better than this guy. We're so much better
than this guy. This guy sucks, you know what I mean.
Like it's gonna become how like you know, like how
cell phone commercials are, where it'll be like it used
to be really bad in the two thousands, where it'd
be like sink or sucks. You shouldn't have singular, you

(41:39):
should come to eighteen and t you know what I mean.
And then they show that giant map of everything.

Speaker 2 (41:45):
It's gonna be like very dependent on kind of these
extra deals that Spotify has kind of toyed around with before,
where it was like, oh, if you're a student, then
you get this like package deal between like Amazon, and like.

Speaker 1 (41:58):
It's all about bundles, you know.

Speaker 2 (42:00):
And then yeah, like I think it's gonna be they're
gonna try to get more into the bundle game of like, oh,
if you sign up now, you're actually gonna like save
more money than if you signed up see Divisually, the only.

Speaker 1 (42:13):
Thing about that that I don't like is that Spotify
because it is an into it's a huge company, but
in terms of the rest of the competitors of streaming
music streaming, it's the only just streaming company. It's independent, right,
It's the Netflix of the streaming companies right where Netflix
isn't part of like an Amazon, it's just Netflix by

(42:34):
itself on an island. Spotify, with a lot of its bundles,
has historically had to be like insane, like the student bundle,
you know, where it was just the lowest thing ever
and it seemed like a deal that was too good
to be true. I'm afraid they'll lose the bundle argument
because of competitors such as Apple, who are going to
be able to bundle it with their phones and all

(42:55):
these cell carriers very easily, or you know, an Amazon
that can with a prime and stuff like that. So
I feel like that's where I agree with you, and
I think we've said it on the show before, is
that almost the only thing that currently separates all these
streaming technologies is the bundling, because they all look the

(43:15):
same and they basically have near identical features. Right. So
I'm a little excited because we had talked about it
before and I think this is really starting to see
the economic kind of part of it. This will force
some competition in the space. What I'm afraid though, is
it's going to force now that we're kind of in

(43:37):
this place where Spotify is by, you know, on an
island by itself, Apple is its own thing, Amazon Music
thing is that it's gonna go from. Instead of being like,
oh it's a carnivore, it's all open free market, we're
all fighting each other. This deals better, it's gonna innovate,
it's gonna go Now, we'll just to eat Spotify live,
and then we'll be an oligarchy for the rest of
our careers, you know what I mean. Like Apple will

(43:58):
be its own thing, Amazon will be its own thing,
will be you know what I mean, We'll just take
from Spotify basically.

Speaker 2 (44:05):
M hm.

Speaker 1 (44:07):
So you know, I thought this was really interesting because one,
this is very clear numbers about the stagnation of streaming,
because I think for a long time people have just thought, oh,
this number can grow and grow and grow. We're kind
of getting to the point where it's not anymore.

Speaker 2 (44:23):
And the other thing, kind of just that Silicon Valley
hype that we are growing up with is dying out
where it's it's not as it's not as important as
it once was.

Speaker 1 (44:36):
We've also seen a unifying increase in trying to find
different revenue other places. I mean, all of the major
streaming companies, not just not just music have universally raised
their prices in the last year or two right as
a group to generate more revenue. On top of that,
we're also seeing you know, arguments like this one I'm

(44:58):
making about having no free service anymore, Right, And I
wanted to kind of get your opinion about this shoe.
Do you think Spotify could get do you do you
think it's a disservice for Spotify to get rid of
the free service? I think this is a pretty good
Like you could argue either way.

Speaker 2 (45:14):
I feel like, well, first off, I guess I'm biased.
I just if you're gonna stream, why would you stream
with ads? You know understand this is it's if you
can't afford it, Like that is one thing I will say,
out of a lot of like entertainment things, Spotify is

(45:37):
probably the cheapest on the list, even with the price.

Speaker 1 (45:40):
If you're at a point and I'll say this, like, look,
you have to think value time wise with this, Right,
If you're at a point where you're listening to Spotify
and you're using it all the time and it's free,
like you got to think of the time you're spending
for these ads and at least Spotify is completely free.
The one that makes me more upset, which I don't

(46:01):
think as much of an option, is a low tier
price model that has ads, because at that point you're
paying for it and then it's a stone's throw away.
Look like an at you Hulu, Right, it's a stone's
throw away to get no ads, right, Like it would
literally just be like, hey, pay us four dollars more

(46:22):
and you could have no ads. And I just think
it's crazy because you know people that are going into
the ads side of it, because you just have to
think of the value of your time that you're losing
to ads every time you watch TV. Right. And on
top of that, like if it's if you really like,
let's say, let's see Spotify now is fifteen ninety nine, right,

(46:45):
And then there was an ad ad one that was
like ten ninety nine, right, if you really need that
five dollars, don't have Spotify. If your five dollars is
going to murder your budget and your life and your
success financially, do not have Spotify because and so that's

(47:05):
what I'm afraid for in that kind of in the
middle argument is because it's not like you it would
be a different story, right because Netflix and all these
other companies that do traditional kind of TV movies streaming
have a walled garden that is very well defended. Music
does not you know what I mean, if you were

(47:29):
going to say, hey, we can have it both ways
I would just go no YouTube. Why because there's no
incentive to their UI whatsoever. There's nothing more cool about
Spotify that would make me go, I need to have
this for ten dollars than YouTube for free, you know

(47:49):
what I mean? YouTube's got ads And on top of that,
the only thing, the only thing I can think of
that would be a difference between like the kind of
like ad tier spot in YouTube is that YouTube regular
you can't close the phone with the audio still playing, right.
But I think most people for ten dollars a month

(48:11):
would take that, you know what I mean, negative and
be like I have this for free. And like I
was saying with Netflix and stuff like that, they have
a wall garden. You can stream the identical song on
YouTube for free. It's not like Netflix where it's like
we have the Crown. You can't go anywhere else and
go watch the Crown, right, So, like that's what I

(48:34):
think it's interesting about this argument is I think they
would have to go all or nothing. I don't know
about you, but I think they would have to go
all or nothing if they're going to try to get
rid of the ad tier.

Speaker 2 (48:46):
Yeah, I feel like it. I don't know, I would
agree with you. I think, like generally, I I feel
like it would be like a waste of time to
just kind of have that like middle tier action of
of just like well you kind of have ads right
here now. But to be honest, like I mean, I

(49:07):
do think like Hulu has a pretty successful like business
structure when it comes to the ad space. And I
think it's because in a lot of case, in a
lot of ways, Hulu's managed to skirt by a lot
of bad design and so bad, so bad and honestly

(49:27):
bad pricing just because they're the oldest streaming service.

Speaker 1 (49:30):
Well. The other thing about visual service is that unlike
unlike Spotify, it is owned by the Walt Disney Corporation,
and so the one thing that it has incentivized compared
to like a Netflix, which is the closest kind of
you know, comparison to Spotify in that streaming space, is bundling,

(49:51):
just the same as like Apple Music and Amazon habit.
The only, I really, the only reason that I think
Hulu is at the top of like a lot of
people streaming services is because of that Disney bundle, which
I want, okay, number can I go on a tangent
here for a second number one thing in business that

(50:13):
I've always been told is that if someone wants to
give you money, let them give you money. Why in
the actual world can you get the Disney Hulu bundle
through a phone package and you can't pay more money
to have no ads? What is going on? I want

(50:36):
to give you more money anyway. This is why I
don't have Hulu currently, because it just pissed me off
so much I went no more. That's my ted talk.
Thanks for coming to it. Next is Mark Zuckerberg, But
you know, uh, I just think it's that. That's like
one of my biggest things with Hulu is that like
that whole thing. But also again, Hulu has a parable

(50:58):
here where it is by the Walt Disney Corporation. It
can have these bundles that no one else can beat
because of the bundling situation with it. And at the
same time, like it's other owners of the company are
like Comcast, so it's like it can bundle with live
TV in the same way like Amazon can bundle with

(51:20):
their Amazon package and Amazon Video and all that stuff
under Prime and it's clean, and Apple can do it
with the phones. It can be defaultly it works right
when you get a phone, it can go with your
service plan, all that stuff. That's why I think Spotify,
if they did this, would have to just cut the
ad sector out completely, which again I would save the

(51:41):
company some money, even though they wouldn't gain as much capital,
which in the game of high politics, it's good to
have capital, right, even if it's at a loss. You know,
to have it around in your company to have capitalization.
But at the same time, I just think they would
have to go full force. I think they would have
to say there's no more ads, you have to pay

(52:01):
for it. But the other thing I think is they
would have to one up the bundling situation, like you
said very stutely, or to just differentiate the platform from
these other competitors, because, like we've always talked about on
the show, streaming, it's like tomato Tomato, I bet you
other that if you put I bet you this could

(52:23):
be a real thing. If you took like Amazon, Apple
and Spotify and put them all in the same screen
together in black and white, I bet you couldn't figure
out which one was which.

Speaker 2 (52:36):
M h.

Speaker 1 (52:37):
Like, that's how bad it is now. So I'm I'm
incentivized to see how this goes. I'm just really afraid
of it becoming an oligarchy of streaming, you know what
I mean, just being like, ah, we'll just eat Spotify
alive and then me and Bezos, you know, Apple and
Bezos will just keep it. We'll keep our separate ways.

Speaker 2 (52:55):
Yeah, I don't know. I think like it's definitely in
a very interesting spot. We're kind of due to have
some sort of disruptor come.

Speaker 1 (53:06):
CDs are back, baby, Yeah, I.

Speaker 2 (53:08):
Don't know, like something, something's something's coming, funny enough.

Speaker 1 (53:12):
I ordered a CD today. Do you know? It's incredibly
it's incredibly difficult to get lossless audio easily without having
to stream it every time, So you have to buy
a CD because it's cheaper. Anyway, don't get me started
in that, Joe.

Speaker 2 (53:31):
You could be like, you could just buy flag files
on band.

Speaker 1 (53:34):
Came now, We're not doing that. Are converted in three
threes into flags? Yes, every every time? Anyway, Joe, tell
me what you've been listening to.

Speaker 2 (53:49):
I got influenced this week.

Speaker 1 (53:52):
You know I got influenced too, so did I Are
we going to say the same thing?

Speaker 2 (53:57):
Are we going to say the same all right? Tell
me what your three thousand Busted.

Speaker 1 (54:02):
I have a different one, damn, all right, tell.

Speaker 2 (54:04):
Me about yours though, Well, year three thousand Busted, That's
that's the track I've been bumping the last couple of days.
But I saw on a TikTok and I was like, damn,
that song was that song slapped back in the day.
But most people know it from the Jonas Brothers cover.

(54:28):
They like popularized it in America pretty much, but the
original track was from a UK band called Busted, and
it's pretty much the only track anybody knows from them,
to be honest. But they're still kicking and they look cool.
They have cool tattoos now, which is fun. But yeah,

(54:53):
I've been listening a lot to that. Listened to Light
Me Up by Illiterate Light, which was a band that
had like a ton of hype in Nashville. Uh for
a while. I think that they're kind of they're like
split between Nashville and I think like another spot. But
it's like two dudes and they like do vocal, guitar,
drums and harmonies together and it's really really sick. If

(55:18):
you like like harder rock, like alternative rock stuff, they're
definitely the band for you. And then yeah, that's it's
about it. Honestly, what have you been listening to? Call?

Speaker 1 (55:32):
I also got an influence. I've been listening to this
full song isn't out, but I really like uh it
stirred from this TikTok and then I think it the
TikTok basically blew up, and so the the person who
made the song was like, I'm gonna make this a
full song. It's a jokey song, which is very on
part for me. But uh, it's called the Planet of

(55:55):
the Bass Nice, which is uh, which is a parody
of like euro kind of euro dance music, basically like
em nineties euro dance music. And it's this comedian guy
who I'd actually been following for other stuff on TikTok.
His name is Kyle Gordon. But like it kind of
made this like fun little parody with this other person,

(56:19):
and like their artist's name is like featuring DJ Crazy Times,
and this is blunge electronica, you know, like very very
on the notes of what they're kind of like poking
fun at, but like they do this video and the
song is really catchy. It comes out on the fifteenth.
From what I've seen from his TikTok because I don't
think he was intending to make it into a huge

(56:40):
thing and then it blew up. But it's like the
perfect parody of eurodance nineties music. You're thinking about, like
very nineties Eurovision music where none of the it's like
all in English, but it's like half English, you know,
where it's like not it's it's not grammatically correct. It's
like the words don't add up. It's like life, it

(57:02):
never die. Women are my favorite guy, you know, stuff
like that. You're like, I get what he's singing, but
like no cybersystem overload, you know, that kind of stuff.
And it's got the same thing where it's got like,
you know, the attractive like you know, very ballady woman

(57:22):
singing the song over the d M bait and then
he's then the background as like the hype you know
euro guy being like put your hands up, you know
what I mean the entire time, and and so it's
really funny. But I love that he's leaned into it.
He did another TikTok. He's done three tiktoks with it.
First one was like them in this like set and
or this place that I don't really know. It's got

(57:45):
to be in like New York or something, but it
looks like an art museum or something.

Speaker 2 (57:49):
And like the r said, it was the mall across
the street from the nine to eleven.

Speaker 1 (57:56):
That's what it was, yep. And so like he he
he's like where he's got dyed red hair and like
reflective sunglasses and like an assault vest on in black
pants with so many pockets, and the girl's wearing like
almost like a Barbis nineties outfit as well, But like
that's kind of the whole point of it. Anyway. The
funniest part about it is that he's like leaned into

(58:18):
kind of that it's a parody of Eurodance, and he's
done it three times now and every time he has
a different singer in the video, because that's how Euro's
dance was, is that they just replaced the main person
every time and so and he's the same person every time,
and they don't make any acknowledge it that it's anybody different.
So I really like it. I think it's really funny.

(58:40):
And then there he's also using like I think the
first one was another influencer that I had seen on
the platform with TikTok, whose name escapes me right now.
And then the second one was that I think the
actual girl who sang it this is all my accusations,
I think based on he says I flew to create
Croatia film this, and I'm like, maybe this was actually

(59:02):
the girl. And then the third one is another influencer
girl that I've seen do a lot of comedy videos too.
So it seems like one of those things where he
just got lightning in a bottle, just hit something so
hard and people are like, actually, I kind of fuck
with this song, and so I really like it. I
think it's really funny. I saw a video of him
like performing it in a club too, that was really funny.

Speaker 2 (59:25):
Anyway, it's just like saw musical joke his other videos.
He's like a comedian.

Speaker 1 (59:31):
Yeah, he just does like straight up comedy videos usually,
and then like clearly has some musical background as well,
but it's like he's not like a oh I'm a
you know, singer songwriter. He just does a lot of parodies.

Speaker 2 (59:45):
Iconic.

Speaker 1 (59:46):
But maybe maybe this will be the start, Maybe he'll
just crazy.

Speaker 2 (59:50):
Times DJ crazy Times for life. Right well, I've had
a DJ crazy time with you.

Speaker 1 (59:58):
Colin Doors, hold your kids guys, thanks for listening to
the Biz tape. You're all thanks to Music, Business and
Media podcast. We sure new appreciate you out there. You
want to do one more favorite pots, please rate it
and share it. Do whatever you want helps out the
show anyway. But we also have our socials at the

(01:00:20):
usday pretty much everywhere if you feel like you want
to listen to more, as well as many episodes of
many different topics on this page where you're listening to now. Anyways, guys,
thank you so much for listening and we'll see you
next time.
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