Chuck's Commentary - Trump’s Coalition Is Starting To Crack + Why America Can’t Quit Saudi Arabia - The Chuck ToddCast

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They're happy Wednesday, and welcome to another episode of the

(01:24):
Chuck Toodcast. So I feel like I have to do
a previously on the Chuck Toodcast. I literally taped about
an hour before Donald Trump did his own vote counting
and realized he was about to see a mass repudiation
of his party going on the record to release the

(01:45):
Epstein Files, And rather than look like a guy no
longer in charge of his party, he decided to instead
get in front of a parade, if you will, and
lo and behold all but one House Republic and joined
what was nearly a unanimous decision by the House of
Representatives to urge the House to release everything it has

(02:10):
in the so called Epstein Files. Now, of course, we
got a long way to go before there's any anything
that gets released. But there's a few things that I
think are worth understanding about Trump's actions, right number one,
And I think first and foremost, and in fact, I
would and I sort of brought this up before that. Look,

(02:32):
he's probably already a lame duck president, right, but we are.
He is certainly not in the acceptance phase that it's
a lame duck president. And I'm myself want to be
careful assuming that we are. I think as I had
compared this, I can't remember previously, but it's it's sort
of like trying to figure out when when the lame
duck period of a presidency begins. Is like trying to

(02:53):
figure out whene a recession begins. You know, after it started,
but you don't quite know when it started until after
the fact. Now do I think eventually we will go
in about three months, we'll say, oh, this lame duck
presidency began, or it may take us another year or
two to determine that the lame duck presidency began on November,

(03:14):
during the November of elections of twenty twenty five. Right,
I think that that clearly is going to be a
line of demarcation because but he is certainly I think
desperate to stave off lame ducdom, if you will. Right, So,
what are the evidence that he's trying to stave it off? Well,
something like we're seeing here, right, I went through a

(03:35):
whole series of things where you're going to start to
see a crackup of the Trump coalition. And frankly, this
is a normal We're actually in a normal time period
for a crackup like this to happen. Trump's essentially been
in charge of America's political weather for about a decade, right,
even though he is he is in the fifth year

(03:58):
of the sixth year of his collective two terms as president,
the four years of Biden. In some way, we're right
it was Trump making the political weather or not Joe Biden.
Joe Biden may have been president, but we were still
living in the Trump era. And Trump's election into sort
of reelection in twenty twenty four after serving from twenty

(04:21):
seventeen to twenty twenty one, I think reinforces that notion.
But it's important to understand we've been living sort of
ten years this under the cloud of Trump, if you will,
And anytime you go back into sort of periods of
political of periods where sort of one person or one

(04:43):
entity sort of controlled the political landscape, right FDR from
nineteen thirty two to his death in forty five. But
you know, in some ways his sort of peak of
powers was in this first four to six years, and
then even as he won a third term in a
fourth term, each time he was starting to see his

(05:04):
power chip away on that front. You know, the Republican
run of the Reagan era sort of started to peter
out right around nineteen ninety. That was sort of the
tax deal that Bush cut with a Democratic House and
Senate that ended up sort of accelerating a right wing

(05:25):
primary challenge sort of the first shot of the new
Trump era, if you will, with the challenge of Path Buchanan.
But the point is this tenure run that Trump has
sort of dominated the political space we're about at the end,
Like no entity has ever been able to sort of
make this a fifteen year run or a twenty year

(05:47):
run where sort of one person and one entity sort
of dominates an era. Like I said, even FDR couldn't
push it much past twelve years, but it was really,
you know, arguably year ten that he was in some
ways at his peak and it was certainly before that
that he was at his peak. So I do think

(06:10):
that this is one of those This is almost political
gravity the situation that we're in now, he's going to
do everything he can to stave it off, right, So
he suddenly is lopping off tariffs from all the tariffs
he added to food, he suddenly is getting rid of them.
By the way, if you wonder, if you've ever wondered
about what is the actual definition of gas lighting? While

(06:31):
the Trump White House on food tariffs is exhibit A
of what gaslighting is, which is they put out a
press release claiming they're trying to lower the cost of food.
This is why they're getting rid of these reciprocal tariffs
on food. What they don't tell you is they put
the reciprocal tariffs on food, which is why the cost

(06:52):
of those food items was going up and contributing to
the rising cost of your grocery bill. But hey, no
one said he didn't listen to the voters when the
voter spoke, and the voter spoke it earlier this month
in November, and that's another way he's trying to get
out of it. So he's trying to stave off lame
ductam with the Epstein files. He gets in front of it,
then endorses it, says he's signed the bill. Nothing to

(07:15):
see here, nothing to hide. He wants to try to
put that chipping away at his power to bet. Then
you've got what he's trying to do with tariffs. Now
we're going to see another round of this when the
courts rule his power is likely unconstitutional. Does it get
used as a moment for other Republicans to come out

(07:37):
against the tariffs and say, hey, we've got to follow
the law and this has got to be voting in Congress.
And by the way, if Trump has to go to
Congress to get them to agree to his tariffs in
an election year, I don't think he's going to get
the vote that he wants out of that. So I
suspect he'll instead look for other executive authorities to try

(08:00):
to issue these tariffs. But it is going to set
him back, and in the meantime, Republicans who are looking
for an opportunity to have some distance from an unpopular president,
and not just unpopular, but a president that is just
sort of wearing out his welcome right. This is where
Trump fatigue, I think becomes a real thing. And again,

(08:20):
this is not some sort of Trump derangement syndrome, oh
hoopium type of thing that I'm smoking. This is just
what happens when you're in your tenth year of political domination.
That there is just your shtick wears out. Your Jedi mind.
Tricks don't have the same impact that they once did.

(08:41):
I mean, even look at how you know his insults right,
we're and I hate this, We're kind of all numb
to his insults. I mean, the guy is a misogynist.
Every time a woman dares question him in the press corps,
he lashes out and goes after looks or goes after
the woman and is so sneering. He cannot handle a woman.

(09:03):
Look does he attack male reporters who do this? Sure,
I've been attacked, but he does not attack with the
personal viciousness and the ugliness and the unseemliness that he
does to women reporters. And it's a shame how many
powerful women that work for the president aren't ashamed of

(09:25):
that behavior. It's a bummer. I wish you know, I'm
not going to sit here. It's like, you know, there's
always this like molism moralizing that now takes place on
social media. Where's everybody standing up on this issue? And
where's you and where's you and where's you look? We're
we're all well past that. We're kind of numb to.
It doesn't make it right. It just means a reality.

(09:45):
But I do think that's the type of stuff that
folks are tiring of. But it's also to me extraordinarily revealing.
Right Trump is feeling he knows the end is near.
He's feeling power slip away. And when hour starts to
slip away, when you're about to lose your status, you
get angry and you lash out, and so he's angry.

(10:07):
He's lashing out. He knows this situation isn't going well.
His vision of what he thought was going to work
is not working. On the domestic economy, we are not
bringing manufacturing back the way he thought we were bringing
manufacturing back. Cutting these deals with these AI companies is
going to end up blowing up in his face. This
is not the populism that he ran on. And then,

(10:30):
of course he's in the midst of legacy building. He loves,
particularly working with the Gulf States, because they always are
so transactional, meaning they are willing to pay him, they
are willing to enrich his family businesses. So he loves
doing these deals, but it actually undermines his entire America
First agenda, as Marjorie Taylor Green so uncomfortably likes to

(10:54):
point out. And she's part of that wing of the
party that really did want to say advertise with the
internationalist wing of the GOP, really didn't want to see
American interventions, whether it's in Venezuela, whether it's in Ukraine,
whether it's in the Middle East. So that is a real,

(11:15):
always has been a real movement inside the conservative side
of the aisle. The question is how big or small
it is at any given moment, And right now I
think it is a little bit larger than Donald Trump realizes,
which is why his as he gravitates towards the international
in order to try to build his own legacy, It's

(11:37):
not like the rank and file are following him on that.
So look, like I said, when we previously checked in,
you know we had it was more about, Okay, how
many Republicans are going to be comfortable breaking with Trump?
And then Trump realized, oh my god, over one hundred
we're going to be comfortable doing this. This is going

(11:57):
to get ugly. This is going to have people questioning
my leadership of this party. I want to put that
question off. I don't want that debate to begin. And
so that is why he jumped in front of this
in there. Now. The reality is are we going to
see anything? Are we actually going to see these files?
Or is the opening of an investigation that Trump ordered

(12:20):
Pambondi to do for quote unquote Democrats caught up in
the Epstein situation going to then have justice invoking while
we're in the middle of an open investigation, and so
we can't we can't make public any of these records
while we're in the middle of an open investigation, which,
by the way, if that is true, you actually couldn't,
you know, it wouldn't be right. But it does feel

(12:43):
as if that Trump is going to want to find
another way to either slow down or prevent the eventual
release of the full amount of of these documents. A

(13:03):
few other a few other notes about I sort of
more have a I'd say the rest of my introduction
here is a little bit more of a political notebook item.
Jamal Kushoge and NBS. I know there's a lot of
people moralizing over and look what Trump Our relationship with

(13:27):
Saudi Arabia is what it is, and I don't like it.
I don't like that we don't prioritize human rights here.
I don't like that we didn't lean on the Saudi's
when we could have at a certain moment when they
when when it was clear that he had ordered the

(13:48):
assassination and the dismemberment of a journalist. But we didn't
do it. And you know what else, it didn't do it.
Joe Biden didn't do it. There is a lot of
foreign policy experts that are whispering in the ears of
both Donald Trump and Joe Biden and whispered in the air,
and look at Jake Sullivan would say it publicly that

(14:10):
Saudi Arabia is a swing country and that we had
to accept them warts and all, peeing coming in our
tent and peeing on the outside, rather than moving over
to China's tent and peeing and peeing on our tent,
if you will. And so I know there's a lot
of I think the criticism that Trump is so dismissive

(14:37):
of the finding that NBS had something to do with
Kushogi's death, that NBS didn't that we didn't sort of.
But look, that's not a democracy that Saderreba is not
a democracy. It is a it's a dictatorship. I mean
it's called a monarchy. But let's you know, I think
I've said this before. All monarchies are dictator Are they

(15:02):
benevolent dictatorships or malevolent dictatorships? Right? Are they? Are they?
You know, there's a handful of monarchies that believe in
them that have allowed democracy to happen. But a lot
of these monarchies in the Middle East, they're just glorified.
They're just dictatorships with just titles that aren't general or president.
Instead they are titles that are king or prince. But

(15:27):
there there's a form of a dictatorship. And obviously we
are in there are so many ties with the Saudis,
and there's been so many presidents that the Saudis have
been sidling up to and you know, with various actors.
This is this is real politique, right, This is sometimes
you you you know, you don't have the allies that

(15:52):
you want, you have the allies that you need. And
at the end of the day, if Saudi Arabia and
Israel have official relations. That's a big deal in the
Middle East, and that only increases the chances of stability
in the Middle East. Stability in the Middle East is
good for the United States and good for our national security.
It doesn't excuse what NBS did. It is a shame

(16:17):
that we have not come up with a better way
to hold Saudi Arabia accountable. But it's well passed holding
them accountable. And you can be as angry about Donald
Trump's dismissive of this yesterday as you can, but realize
Joe Biden and he may have been dragged to Saudi

(16:39):
Arabia kicking and screaming, but he made nice with Saudi
Arabia because there has been a decision made that for
the greater good of America's national security interests, Saudi Arabia
has to be an ally and we can't alienate them.
And apparently, the more you go after MBS over Jamal
shuk Kushoki, the more it gets alien the more they

(17:01):
may get alienated. And we can't afford to drive them
in the arms of Russia and China. It's an uncomfortable fact.
But this is why the job of being president and
leader of the so called free world is quite difficult,
and why you want as moral and ethical of people
as you could possibly find to sit in that chair,

(17:23):
because when you have amorl people, they will just shrug
their shoulders when people commit amorl and immoral acts, which
is exactly what Donald Trump has done with the Saudis.
I suppose we should be happier that Joe Biden condemned
what Thesadis did, but it did not change our behavior
towards Thesati's, nor did it change the Saudi behavior. So

(17:44):
that is what it is. Sometimes I think we have
to understand the uncomfortable reality of the situation, and this
is who the King of Saudi Arabia has chosen to
run his government and run a very powerful regional power

(18:05):
in the Middle East. And sometimes you have to deal
with leaders. You know, is Air Towan the best leader
of Turkey we could have? The answer is no, but
we have no choice but to deal with them as
a ally. Is bb Netan Yahoo an ideal ally? As
head of government Israel Harden? Of course, hardon now, but

(18:28):
this is the situation we live in. So anyway, I
just wanted to it is because it really I personally,
really struggle with it. I am so outraged right by
the dismissiveness of the just killing of journalists, the disregard

(18:49):
that Donald Trump has for journalists, the threats that he makes,
the fact that his behavior echoes what an authoritarian leader
NBS behaved, and that he somehow is condoning that behavior.
It would be nice if we at least paid lip
service to the First Amendment, and if we had a

(19:12):
sitting president of the United States that gave two shits
about the Constitution. But unfortunately that is not the situation
we live in in the moment. But we can I think,
you know, I try to sort of be I can
tell you how I personally feel and at the same

(19:32):
time trying to explain the political reality of the situation
that we are in. And when it comes to relationships
with Saudi Arabia, this country has come to the bipartisan
conclusion that we have to work with this dictatorship, not
necessarily work to change the regime or undermine it, or

(19:54):
to ostracize it, given that everything is always seen through
the prism of we've got to have it more checks
on China and Russia. That's how you find yourself in
bed with people that you wouldn't necessarily want to be
morally or ethically connected to. But hence this is where

(20:15):
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A few other notes. I will confess to reading a

(22:02):
lot about the Olivia Newsy stuff. I am there are
so many things I'd like to say about it. I
am disgusted that any news organization has hired her as
a quote unquote journalist. The minute you sleep with your sources,
you have compromised your journalism. I you know, her personal

(22:23):
decisions are her personal decisions. I'm not going to judge her.
I'd certainly not date her, and I'd certainly not want
to be in relationship with her, and I'd certainly be
recommending that perhaps she ought a look at the pattern
of creepy old men she finds herself attracted to and
would wonder, what is there a pattern here? But you know,

(22:45):
I hope she goes and talks with somebody. I hope
she can find some peace and find some therapy on that.
You know, the creepy old men that she has associated
herself with, none of them are people I would want
my son to emulate. They are not role models for anybody,

(23:06):
and they maybe one of them may have been a
talented broadcaster, but it doesn't mean he is not a
despicable human being. One of them may have a famous name,
but it doesn't mean he's not a despicable human being.
And one of them may have been a former public
servant and he seems to be shall we say, morally challenged.

(23:31):
But I think one of the three people she's been
connected with is not a total scumback two of them
that actually might be a debate about whether that description
describes them, But I'm gonna leave them nameless because one
of them just cares about hearing their name said and

(23:53):
is so desperate for relevancy and to profess grievance that
that he doesn't know just when to go away, and
he certainly has treated anybody that has tried to give
him grace. He is treated like crap. And here we
have another example of this person treating another human being

(24:17):
just horrifically and despicably. But the whole thing, I feel
like I'm watching a car wreck that I shouldn't be watching.
And yet I will accept the premise that I've been
following it like one might follow all my children or
days of our lives. But I will say this, it's

(24:39):
really a shame that the institution of sort of the
media and political media and journalism that people that sort
of abuse their privilege of being political journalists like Olivia
Newsy has done, has then, you know, sort of disgraces

(25:00):
the institution for those of us that have worked really
hard to try to build credibility, you know. And this
is why it's you know, I can't even I mean,
you know, she's not alone. It's sort of bringing shame
upon the industry that is quote media these days. I mean,
what Megan Kelly's bizarre defense that somehow desiring a fifteen

(25:22):
year old is different than desiring an eight year old
is sort of like that is the weirdest hair to
choose to split. It is an obvious play simply for
algorithm or to just play Kate. By the way, how
embarrassed is she now that even the President wants to
release the Epstein files. So, but when you are so

(25:42):
concerned about not alienating your audience, if you've wondered here,
as you could tell, I am not interested in playkating
one side or the other just to build a cheap audience.
I respect the folks that choose to come here too
much not to tell them the actual reality of the

(26:04):
situation as best as I can present it and as
best as I see it. I'm not guaranteeing you that
I am all knowing or all anything. I am simply
telling you I'm giving you the honest assessment based on
my experience, based on what I think I'm looking at,
and I'm not playing to an algorithm or playing to
an audience just to make the audience feel better. And

(26:27):
it is shameful that someone like Megan Kelly, who has
legacy media credentials and has used them to claim credibility
as a media reporter, to then go out there and
use whatever remaining credibility she may have with some people
to defend pedophilia, to say, well, you know, hey, creepy

(26:49):
old men that desire fifteen year olds, they shouldn't be
treated as harshly as creepy old men who may desire
eight year olds. I mean, come on, you know, stop digging,
and you know, you know stop you know I will
tell you this. I hate nothing more than her being

(27:11):
classified as part of the larger media ecosystem because it
brings disrepute on all of us. But hey, I think
this is why so many of you have chosen to
trust individuals and not institutions, because the institutions themselves, I
have been corrupted in many ways, are corroded by some

(27:32):
of these people, and the best you can do is
to is to focus on individuals. All right, Sorry, my
crankiness is over. But I mean, I can't believe Vanity Fair,
which which I think feels like it used to be
this sort of prideful news magazine that would would do

(27:55):
aggressive reporting but always grounded in real journalism. I'm sure
they've had reporters who've slept sources in the past, but
not like this into knowingly hire a reporter who has
done this serially. I think shows you that something has
gone totally off the rails right now at Conde Nast,

(28:17):
and that's a bummer. That's too bad. I hope somebody
sobers up given what we're all seeing and witnessing on that.
All right, very quickly, a few political items. I hope
you're paying attention. There's a special before the year goes out,
there's a special election in Tennessee seven. We have seen

(28:38):
that Donald Trumps superpack has dropped a whole bunch of
money into that special election. They're trying to help the
Republican candidate, Mark Van Epps in that one. I will
say this the Democratic candidate. One could argue that the
Democrats didn't get the candidate that they would have won,
that actually could have pulled this upset right in bain Ben.

(29:01):
I hope I'm pronouncing her name correctly. It's b e
h n Is was the more progressive candidate. It is not.
This is not a Connor Lamb situation or a John
Ossoff situation. Someone that's a little bit closer to the center.
That quote unquote fits the district. I think Republicans think

(29:23):
they will be able to paint her as just a
bit too progressive for Tennessee, a bit too progressive for
the national suburbs. But we're looking at single digits in this,
you know, I think that I think the fair over
underline on this, if you were going to set a spread,
is somewhere in the five to seven point range, and

(29:47):
I would say over seven you have to feel pretty
good as a Republican that maybe you know, you can
stave off a massive way. But if this is under
five with a candidate this progressive on the Democratic side,
that means that is all environment, that is all sort
of that lopsided turnout. So you know, I keep an

(30:09):
eye on it. It's you know, it's obviously it's a
big twenty plus point Trump district. If a Democrat wins Trump,
a Republican would likely win it in a regular general election.
But the fact that Republicans are spending money there is
just yet another sign that they do have a massive
turnout issue. Right. Their voters don't come out for these

(30:30):
non presidential elections as it is, and now you have
sort of an enthusiastic, sort of anti Trump base that
is surging to the polls, as we've now seen in
these off off your elections. So not surprising that they're
dropping money there. Frankly, it's probably a smart investment and
it should it should keep things. It probably will keep that,

(30:54):
keep that district Republican. The other thing that happened just
before I went to I went to air. Here is
the court ruling in Texas. Now I'm still looking for
some clarification, but it looks like California. You know, So
if Texas is maps the re redisterting, if the new
maps right now have been thrown out, the decision will

(31:16):
get appealed. Then we shall see what happens. But if
they stay thrown out, the California map doesn't revert, even
though originally the original legislation and the proposition was that
the map, you know that they wouldn't do this if
Texas stood down. Once Texas went through it, they got
rid of that language. So if the Texas maps get

(31:38):
thrown out but California's maps stay, you want to talk
about a karma moment for Donald Trump, you know he
instigated this. We could be in a situation where Democrats
actually net more seats out of re redistricting because of
the Texas map getting thrown out throughout right, We've already

(31:58):
seen what happened in Utah. We saw the compromise that
Republicans made with Democrats. In Ohio. We have an Indiana
state Senator that continues to stand up and say no
to redistricting, and it looks like that that's at least
going to prevent a special session. So I don't know
how they're going to get I don't think they can
will it to happen because the clock is going to
run out. But if they if Republicans can't get a

(32:22):
court to bless this map in Texas, this entire exercise
will have cost them seats, not gain them seats. As
with the Texas map, it would now tall an open question.
Does Virginia stand down if the Texas because Virginia is
looking to add yet three or four more to the
Democratic column, or do Republicans start to put pressure in

(32:47):
some of these others. Does Florida get aggressive and trying
to change its map and then therefore Virginia stays this.
So look, we've got a bit of a shake up here.
As I've told you, I still think the re redistricting
wars they're either it's most likely going to be a
net change of no more than two or three to
benefit the Republicans, but if the Texas mech gets thrown out,

(33:08):
it could end up being two or three, then ends
up benefiting the Democrats. And again, those of you that
believe in karma would say, hey, karma is a bitch, right,
Welcome to that world, mister president. But there's an appeals process.
We'll see what happens here. But you know it, one

(33:30):
would hope the courts would be uncomfortable with the willy
nilly nature that all of these states and all of
these legislatures are going about the attempt at redistricting every
two years. I was recently doing a I was on
a panel with my friend Brad Todd, a longtime Republican consultant.
He says, you know, he says, the last time that

(33:51):
this country regularly had states redistricting every two years was
the eighteen forties. He goes, I don't want to have
to tell you where what would happen, what happened from
the eighteen forties to the eighteen fifties, and what that
eventually led to. But the point is this re redistricting
is unhealthy for our politics. It's unhealthy for the system.

(34:13):
It was such a It is such a corrosive thing
that Donald Trump, a war that Donald Trump started, but
now that you have the Democrats willing to engage in it,
it certainly is creating a landscape for twenty twenty six
that is suddenly looking a lot more bullish for the

(34:36):
Democrats and a lot more bearish for the Republicans. And
throwing out this Texas map would only make a mediocre
environment suddenly look a whole lot worse.

Speaker 2 (34:51):
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they win. I am sticking with my theme of all
things twenty twenty six.

Speaker 1 (35:57):
As I promised you, it's a top five. It's time,
it's way, which means I have a new top five list,
Top top It's an update. Right. A month ago, I
debuted my top five most likely governor's seats to flip

(36:18):
parties and at that time this was October, which meant
the Virginia and New Jersey races were part of my
top five. And just to recount my top five in
October of races most likely to change of governor's seats
or governor's mansions, ver you want to describe it, most
likely to flip parties, Number one was Virginia. Number two

(36:41):
was Kansas. Number three was Wisconsin. Number four was Michigan
and number five was Iowa. Now what do all five
of those races have in common? They're all open seats.
And as I will say every time I talk about
governor's races, one of the hard the hardest things to
do in politics is to defeat a sitting governor after
they've served only one term. It just rarely happens. Frank

(37:02):
Murkowski is one of the few examples where it happened,
when Sarah Palin defeated Lisa Markowski's father in a primary
after he had served one term. But it is not easy.
Joe Lombardo defeated Governor Sicilac out of Steve Sicilac out
of Nevada in twenty twenty two, not the easiest thing

(37:27):
to defeat a sitting of the only I think he
was the only incumbent to lose statewide on the Democratic
side in twenty twenty two Senate or governor. So that
is just how difficult it is voters in general, unless
they really can't stand their governor and they do something
sort of just something that they never thought that they

(37:49):
would do. And in Sicilac's casey shut down the strip
right like get out. That's why he lost reelection. He
shut the strip down during COVID and that had all
sorts of massive economic fallout for Nevada residents, which explains
the point is you're my top five list will likely
not include a sitting governor. In fact, I think if

(38:10):
you're wondering which incumbent governor is the most vulnerable in
the country, I will tell you it is Katie Hobbs
in Arizona. Of all the incumbent governors seeking reelection, she's
probably at the most vulnerable. She narrowly won over Carrie
Lake the first time. She's not the most front facing

(38:33):
candidate she is. There isn't going to be a Senate
race that becomes the bigger attention seeker. Her race is
going to be the front and center race in swing
state Arizona. And if Congressman David Schweikert, who is represented
a swing district in Arizona, ends up the Republican nominee,

(38:53):
I think she's in for a real nail buyer. So
I will say she does not make my top at
the moment of five most vulnerable to flip because I
will tell you there's a whole bunch more open seats
that are more likely to flip parties first before we
get to Arizona. But if you told me sometime between

(39:14):
now and next November, Arizona makes it intoto my top five,
it would be the one state with an incumbent governor
that I think that it's likely to do that. So
with that said, my top five number one now, and
I think it's it's fair to put this. It's Kansas. Now.
It's interesting. I have a little update on Kansas Lora Kelly,

(39:36):
who's term limited, and it is worth noting that Democrats
have had the governor's office sixteen of the last twenty
four years, right had Kathleen Sibelius, then had and you
had your eight years of Brown back, and then you
had eight years of lor Kelly. Now she has endorsed

(39:59):
her successor, a state Senator by the name of Ethan Carson.
Excuse me, Ethan corson co R so O N my
apologies there. She claims that he's going to be that
he's the Democrat, he's in a primary, but that he's
the Democrat best position to continue to appeal to sort

(40:19):
of moderate Republicans and independents, which is what lor Kelly
has successfully done in order to win in Kansas, we'll
see Kathleen Sibilius had her own successor and that person
couldn't win. So look, I do think you're likely to
see the windshield wiper effect take place in Kansas, which

(40:39):
is why you've got to make it's somewhat of a
crowded Republican primary. But I think it's fair to put
that you got to put that seat is most likely
to flip at the moment. Right, it's the most Republican
state with a democratic open seat in the governors in
all of the governor's races. Because of that, I think

(41:01):
you have to put Kansas in the one spot, So
number two. Last week I had it at number tho
last month, excuse me, I had it at number three.
I am putting it at number two. I mean, the
fact is the Democrats are in the tougher position in
this three way race, right. You know, if Dougan catches fire,
it's at the expense of the Democrats. If Dugan doesn't

(41:23):
catch fire but still gets low double digits, it's at
the expense of the Democrat. So there are not a
ton of scenarios that give in this case, that put
the advantage in the in the Democrats column here on
this one. So I think you have to put you know,
if I've got Kansas in the number one slot, I

(41:43):
think you have to put Michigan is the second most
likely state not to have a Democratics the same party
succeed the party the incumbent party, in this case, the Democrats. Look,
I will continue to say that I think the state
of Michigan is the single most important set of primaries.

(42:06):
That Democratic primary in the Senate campaign is going to
be just, you know, just what direction does the party
go in that Senate race. If you have a progressive
like Abdul say Ed who ends up not just the nominee,
but wins that senen see, it will be it will
help set the tone of what the primary debate about

(42:26):
Israel looks like. In the Democratic presidential primaries. The point is, boy,
what happens in Michigan. This three way governor's race and
a general election, that Democratic primary and Senate race, it's
just so many. If you're a serious political reporter and
you want to make a name for yourself, plant yourself
in the state of Michigan. Anyway, So Michigan in my

(42:47):
number two slot. Look, and then number three right now,
I'm going to put battleground state Georgia, and this is
the new entry into my top five list, and I'm
the case I make and on why Georgia now is
here is what happened in the off off year elections.
I think when you it's the same reason why I
dropped Osoft down the list of Senate seats most likely

(43:12):
to flip in our last top five and why I
rise the Georgia governor's race. I thought this would be
a competitive race, but slight advantage to the Republicans. But
what happened in those Public Service Commission races where Democrats
won by double digits. And if you've got a turnout
and you've got a week Senate field, you've got a

(43:33):
well funded incumbent candidate in John Ossoff, you have a
very competent potential gubernatorial nominee uh in Keisha Keisha Lance Bottoms,
and she is I think very electable statewide, was not
somebody that alienated the business community as mayor of Atlanta.

(43:55):
So you put this combination up there and suddenly you've
I just feel a lot more bullish about Democrats in
general and their chances in Georgia, right now than I've
had in a while, even more so than the success
the Democrats had in the twenty twenty campaign, right, sort
of the most successful year that they've ever had in

(44:15):
Georgia in this century, where they carry the presidency and
won two sentence seats thanks to runoffs. By the way,
considering that we're going to have super competitive races, in
the likelihood there'll be some libertarian candidate on the ballot,
the likelihood we have runoff somewhere in Georgia in December
of twenty twenty six is probably higher than we any
of us want to contemplate at this moment. But just

(44:38):
put that in the back of your memory bank, that
that is coming. So number one, Kansas, number two, Michigan,
number three, Georgia in the four spot. I got to
put Wisconsin pretty much for the same reason. Why Michigan
is there, Why Kansas is there? This is an open seat.
Wisconsin's been a bit of a windshield wiper at least
in the twenty first century. Eight years one party, eight

(44:59):
years the other. And here we go again for Democrats.
Will the national win blowing at their back allow them
to overcome what could be a state wind blowing in
their faith. Well didn't hurt Mikey Sheryl in New Jersey
right where the let you know, where you had an
outgoing governor that wasn't super popular. He wasn't super unpopular either,

(45:23):
but he was sort of middly, if you will. He
certainly had a lower job rating than Glenn Younkin had
in Virginia. And so, you know, you just just due
to the swinging nature of Wisconsin, you had to put
that in the four slot and in the five slot.
I'm going to keep the same. And it's simply because

(45:44):
Democrats have their candidate and Republicans don't yet, because there's
going to be a competitive primary and that's Iowa, and
you have the Democratic Canada rob saying you just got
to know Josh Turreck a little bit. It does appear
as if the sort of populous, sort of more culturally
conservative but economic populous wing of the Democratic Party is

(46:07):
flexing its muscle in Iowa. If that is what if
you see that sort of if that is that the
unofficial ticket that is leading statewide in Iowa, that puts
them in a strong position. And I happen to believe
Iowa is a lot more winnable for Democrats than Ohio is.

(46:28):
Even though I suspect the Ohio governor's race to be
quite close. We're still waiting for Tim Ryan to make
a decision on that one. I'm not ready to put
Ohio in any top five list on that front, but
I am with Iowa. So to recap my top five
for this month, the five governors mansions most likely to

(46:49):
flip Kansas one, Michigan two, Georgia three, Wisconsin four, Iowa five.
And I think when you look at that, it's three Democratic,
it's three Republican held seats, two Democratic health seats. No
excuse me, three Democratic health seats, two Republican health seats.

(47:14):
I think it's because you've seen Democrats had some good
success in twenty eighteen, winning in some light red states
now and in the swing states they're about to give that.
You know, now those folks are term limited and the
party is lucking out that it's likely they'll have the
win that they're back. So one would assume they hold

(47:35):
at least two of those three important Midwestern in states
that they want to hold Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. By
the way, in case you're wondering, the following races I
contemplated for this top five list. I told you about Arizona.
I think Katie Obbs is the most vulnerable incumbent in
the country. But again I have my caveats there. The

(47:56):
hardest thing to do in politics, other than outstates sitting
one term president, is to outstay sitting one term governor.
Other seats that I are in my competitive category that
I did contemplate for this top five Maine, an open
seat there, Nevada, Joe Lombardo the sitting you know he

(48:17):
just won. You know this is a swingy state. We'll see.
I think I think Lombardo's in pretty good shape for reelection,
but it's going to be tight, and he certainly is
running a bit against a We think it's going to
be a breeze against him. Ohio and the open seat
in Alaska. But until we find out the full field
in Alaska, what does Mary Patello do before I'm willing

(48:39):
to put Alaska truly in the very very competitive column.
So there you go my top five list this week.
Ask Chuck, all right, little last Chuck, I apologize for
not doing any ass check last week or excuse me,
last episode. I was as many of you know, I've

(49:02):
been traveling a lot, so I was a bit behind
on the question front, and I want to ask a bunch.
I promise you next week I'm gonna have a heavy
dose of questions so that I can get to as
many of them as you've been sending in over the
last few weeks. And we have a ton of terrific questions.
So this one comes from Amy from I'm gonna see
if I get this right. Amy is writing from Sheppichett,

(49:25):
Rhode Island. It's spelled c chp a c ch t.
I'm assuming a soft ce on that SHEPPI set. Maybe
it's chepichet. Somebody will tell me. And Amy writes, Dear Chuck,
If and when the Epstein File's are released, can we
really trust they're complete and untouched? Probably not. They've been
floating around for years and we've been told many eyes,

(49:45):
every few of them recently appreciate the podcasts or trust
you and always learn something new. Look. I think, unfortunately
the way this situation has been handled, I think there's
gonna be a lot of questions about what we see
and in fact we are, you know, in some ways
the Epstein File it entered the Oswald files territory right
with JFK. The government's withheld those files for so long

(50:06):
that what they do release you assume you can't trust
what you've seen. So this is a case where an
untrustworthy institution is releasing files that you've been skeptical of anyway,
So I understand the skepticism on this. Look, I suspect
that we're not going to see these files for a while.

(50:28):
I suspect that you're going to see an amendment in
the you know, let's see what the Senate does. Do
they add any caveats to it, or do they vote
on it untouched. There's been a little bit of back
and forth on that, but I think the most likely
result is there's an open investigation that Pambondi just opened
on Democrats connected to Epstein, and that that will serve

(50:51):
as the pretext for not releasing anything at least in
the immediate future. Maybe we get them on January nineteenth,
twenty twenty nine. Just something think about. But yes, I'm
very skeptical that we're still going to see it. But
we'll see Thomas in Montana, right, Chuck, Thanks for what
you do. I don't always agree, but I always walk
away more informed. I even subscribe to a new local

(51:12):
weekly paper. Right on, quick question, are you aware of
the football game this week in Missoula, Montana? It's kat Griz.
I'm aware of the rivalry aka the Brawl of the Wild,
A fierce rivalry game with big states and bigger emotions.
One team might win fifty to ten, but nobody knows which.
It's one of the most captivating events in college sports.
Thomas and Montana, you are right, this is one of
I am. I've spent a lion's share of my first

(51:38):
college football season away from NBC, mostly focused on my
University of Miami Hurricanes. But within the next couple of years,
I plan to embark on what I call a rivalry tour.
If you will missus. Todd is a huge college football
fan as well. We've talked about this. We want to
go to Michigan, Ohiose State. I want to go to

(51:59):
Iowa State, Iowa. She's been to Iowa State, IOA. I
have not. She's been a noted name USC, I have not.
I'd like to go to Montana Montana State. First of all,
it's a great excuse to get up to Montana, and
that is a great one. I want to go to
an Auburn Alabama game, so I am well aware of that.

(52:20):
One one of my longtime sources that I've dealt with
over the years off and on is a former Obama
campaign hand named Jim Messina. He's a Montana native. There's
nothing like getting him to talk about this rivalry. So
one of I will confess. One of the great currencies
I've used as a reporter over the years is college football.

(52:41):
It is it is a it is a common language
that I've used to, you know, to get to know
sources that you need to report on politics and a
good political good political strategists, good political candidates, whether they

(53:02):
like college football or not, know how to talk about
college football rivalries. Anyway, Thank you for that reminder. And
let's just say that's that's going to be one we
all need to pay attention to. Regardless. Yes it's an
FCS but I'll tell you if they had, you know,
one of those one of those Montana schools are goa
be Both of them have the passionate fan base that

(53:27):
you know, they could make a pretty good FBS team.
You know, it does feel like those plain states between
the Dakotas and Montana. There's some really good FCS football
up there. When they play any teams in the division above,
they can sometimes give some scare so I'm well aware
it's very much quality football. All right. Next question comes

(53:48):
from Lee Heck. Oh I think I know Lee. I
know Lee Heck in Seattle. Hey Lee, this is an
old friend. Anyway, Hey, check love the election live stream
and now I have a soft spot for the newsgirls.
Good as you should their terrific subscribe to their podcast.
I'm wondering if your view on Californias we're justtring voter
shifted after Tuesday give them the growing national momentum. Well,
I still favorite independent comissions. I understand the strategy to

(54:10):
office at GOP controlled stage. Also, it's a lifelong Hoosier.
It's been thrilling to see how you football finally shine.
Now we just need basketball to catch up. Yeah, I know.
I feel sorry for the basketball coach right now in Indiana.
Right now, there's so much more pressure to perform. If
the football team can do it, then why the hell
can't who's your basketball get there? Get their crap together?

(54:30):
Look as look, Hey, I you should check out the
column I wrote this week on substack, which is all
about Gavin Newsom and the vacuum he has filled for
I think a lot of people who have felt frustrated
that the Democrats don't know how to fight back against Trump.
It's I am, I am not gonna I'm not going

(54:53):
to be one over that this is a good idea.
I think making fewer congressional seats COMPA is bad for
American politics, and that is the ultimate what is the
what is the consequence of all this. We now have
fewer competitive seats. That's bad. That means there are fewer
races in America that are sort of you know that

(55:17):
the people having it can have an impact on right.
There are fewer that are deciding the balance of power.
That's not healthy. But I understand the uh, I understand
the tactic, and it's been a very successful CounterPunch to
the point, you know, I'm I am. I am relieved

(55:39):
to know that there are courts that think we shouldn't
be doing this willy nilly re redistricting every two years.
So kudos to the to the court in Texas to
putting a pause on what's happening there. And it could
mean that that that a court challenge to California is
redistricting could have an impact here. But what I will

(56:00):
say is I do think it is certainly fired up Democrats,
and it has really been good for Gavin Newsom. And
one thing that I that is crystal clear to me
is that there is an appetite in the base of
the Democratic Party for a fighter at this moment to

(56:21):
fight back, to figure out if you have power, do
you know how to use it when they're trying to
wedge you with the power that they have. And I
think what you saw in Gavin Newsom was an ability
to figure out how to use power when he felt
is necessary. You're gonna have a hard time convincing me
this is good governance. I accept the premise we are

(56:41):
necessarily in a good governance moment, and I do think
the unintended consequence is less competition, which is bad for everybody.
I can't sit here and say it has not been
tactically successful for Democrats. Michael T from Chicago always pretty
you're inside. I'm curious what you think about Fox. Ititis

(57:02):
this idea that about thirty percent of the country fully
believes the misinformation Fox spreads. My retired father now watches
it from morning tonight and it's convinced Trump and Magar
are the solution everything. My siblings and I tread family
gatherings because all he wants to do is educate us
with Fox talking points. How can we save our democracy
when so many people are trapped in this misinformation bubble?
Michael T Look, it's unfortunately we know this disease, and

(57:27):
I by the way it exists with those that just
sit in front of MSNBC or MS now and watch
it ten hours a day. You know what's unhealthy watching
one stream of anything for eight to ten hours a day.
And for many retirees, many older folks, I do think

(57:47):
that Fox and MS and even Seeing End or lesser
extent are sort of their background comfort, right, They're sort
of you know, if you're living alone, they provide some
noise so it doesn't feel so lonely. And yes, it
has I think it has a corrosive Uh, it can

(58:09):
have a corrosive effect, especially you know, over over time.
And you know, I can tell you I've got relatives
who watch I might argue, watch too much of MS
and they are convinced that literally the republic is going
to fall within days. Just like there are folks that
I discover who watch so much Fox that are convinced

(58:31):
that there is some sort of communist conspiracy that is
taken over the Democratic Party. Can I make you feel
better that the average age of a viewer of any
cable news is now seventy plus, that this is an
aging demographic that is listening to this. I would argue

(58:52):
that it is no more influential than talk radio was
thirty years ago. On those that just allowed rush Limbaugh
to sort of program their brains for three hours a
day as they were, you know, doing you know, driving
around with sales or marketing and things like that for
the for the for the for the traveling sales uh,

(59:13):
the salesforce that was out there, or those that make
it made a living driving. So I I I think
you might have asked that a generation before would have
talked about talk radio and you know, hey, you know,
I've got a father who listens to too much talk
radio and he seems to believe everything that comes out

(59:35):
of Rush Limbaugh. Right, So.

Speaker 2 (59:39):
It is.

Speaker 1 (59:40):
I think the real danger is are the lack of
you know, the way the algorithms work, that the algorithms
don't allow us to diversify our news streams don't allow it.
It is really difficult to diversify your new stream. I
have an unusual feed, right, but I have intentionally created
a feed that is as as you know, as sort

(01:00:02):
of whiplashy as you can get because I'm trying to
keep track of the crazy MAGA, right, I'm trying to
keep track of the democratic socialist left, including the crazy
version of the democratic socialist left as well as you know.
I think there are mainstream MEGA, and I think there's
crazy MEGA. I think there's mainstream democratic socialism. I think

(01:00:23):
there's crazy democratic socialists. So I'm trying to understand that
if the full spectrum that's out there, but you have
to intentionally do it as a feed, and it is.
It is more and more difficult because some people have
simply left X because they because it's clear that Elon
Musk is sort of screwed with the algorithms to sort

(01:00:43):
of suppress one side of the aisle and he sort
of amplifies the other side of the aisle, which also
can be screwy with your feet. But I think the
thing that is most dangerous is this is the is
the algorithmic driven bubbles. Right, Cable has fallen prey to this,
But this is just as much of a problem on

(01:01:04):
TikTok with young people and only getting one you know,
a source, you know, one sided source there. I mean,
this is I wish this were an isolated issue, just
with fox eyness. But I guess my point is that
we sort of we're almost a tapestry of these bubbles,
and I think they've all been pretty destructive on the

(01:01:25):
information ecosystem. That's the core issue, right, The information ecosystem
currently has an incentive structure, that is, that pushes us
away from quality information and pushes us towards amplification and affirmation.

(01:01:46):
All right, Next question comes from Joshua Bee and he
simply writes, does Amy Acting or Tim Ryan give give
Democrats the best shot? Does Amy Acting or Tim Ryan
give Democrats the best shot at winning the twenty twenty
six Ohio Governor's race. You know, it's interesting, I'm I
I know both of these Democrats pretty well. I know
Vivik Ramaswami somewhat well as two and in fact he

(01:02:12):
this is one of those races where I've I think
I've hosted all three of them at various times as
podcast guests and various iterations. I find them all to
be interesting conversationalists. I learned something from all three of them.
This is I could make a case this could be
the smartest set of candidates for governor that you could have.

(01:02:33):
You know, I'm not I don't want to make a
moral or ethical judgment about about that. I have a
feeling you may have some strong feelings about Ramaswami, but
I'll tell you this. I think ramas Swami is a
weak potential Republican nominee. I think, uh connection with Doge

(01:02:53):
isn't that negative? I think that it's you know, Amy
acting being Mike Dewin's former health advisor. Is that a help? Now?
I'm I think there's such a negative view of COVID
that even though I think Amy acting frankly would be

(01:03:16):
a fascinating governor, I don't know if leaning into COVID
or having that be your origin story on the political
map is a net positive, right. I just think people
are so they don't want to think about COVID, and
so I don't know if that just costs her a

(01:03:38):
couple of you know, makes her a weaker candidate. But
Tim Ryan feels like a serial candidate for office, right,
how much does he really want to be governor? He
just ran for Senate and lost? Is he just looking
for is this a stepping stone? Right? He thought about
running for president in twenty twenty almost did it right,
you know? Or is he really serious about being governor?
And why hasn't he gotten in yet? Right? And he's

(01:04:03):
gotten in bed with the crypto world, which I don't
know whether that's a net positive because it neutralizes the
issue and they won't all come in for Ramaswami, or
it neutralizes it in a way that's a net negative
for Ryan if you are a cryptoskeptic, or you're worried
about sort of how Silicon Valley has there has entrenched

(01:04:24):
themselves in the campaign. So I could make a case
that either one of the I guess on paper, I
think Tim Ryan's probably the slightly stronger profile, and it's
simply due to COVID fatigue and the fact that the
electorate just and that doctor Acton could just be could

(01:04:49):
be a reminder of something that many voters just want
to compartmentalize and not talk about. But here's what I
do believe. I think Ramaswami is the among the weaker.
Can that's they could get for governor. I think this
is a more winnable race than Democrats have treated it.
I think, Ohio, I say this, it's light red, not
dark red. And if there was ever a if there,

(01:05:14):
now you know, I really think would have been the
strongest candidate for governor wouldn't have been either Amy Actor
or Tim Ryan. It had been Shared Brown. Just something
to think about, all right, last question? And then I
got and then we'll call it. We'll call it a podcast.
This comes from Jacob. He says, Hey, Chuck, loving the
new podcast. It actually reminds me of Peter King's Monday
Morning Quarterback. I'll take that as high praise. I like

(01:05:36):
that podcast. Peter King's a friend. I like Peter, especially
how your football segment's had a personal, engaging touch. I
wanted to suggest a Netflix style docu series on conspiracy theories.
Oh buddy, I have I have a treatment already written
on this stuff. But this is great, Jacob, Can I
get you to get a job in Netflix so they
could greenlight this series. But anyway, you've already touched on
the Nixon tapes. JFK and Jonestown, and with the rise

(01:05:58):
in UFO sightings and current there's plenty to explore. A
short three episode series could really work. Keep up the
great work, looking forward to more. Look. I think it's
a great idea. And here's why. I think conspiracy theories
actually are a terrific sort of way to engage the
public in learning how to critically think. There is a

(01:06:19):
Florida State University a couple of years ago started a
class that was essentially about news literacy, but instead of
calling it about news literacy, they called it Introduction to
conspiracy theory. And the point being is that and I
could do this. I could make a forty seven forty
seven part series on presidential conspiracy theories, because every single

(01:06:44):
president has had some conspiracy theory dog them, and learning
how that conspiracy theory got traction helps you understand the
media ecosystem right of that era, whether it's about Warren
Harding and Teapot Dome, whether it's about James Garfield and
and and Roscoe Conkling, or whether it's about JFK. Or

(01:07:09):
whether it's about Nixon or or or the Trilateral Commission.
Right we can and George W. George H. W. Bush
Whitewater and Vince Foster and Bill Clinton. But when you
when explaining every presidential conspiracy theory, it's actually a terrific

(01:07:30):
way to get people to understand sort of. When you
understand how a conspiracy theory takes takes hold, then it
just helps you be a better critical thinker when it
comes to consuming news and information period. So uh, and oh,
by the way you entertain people at the same time,

(01:07:51):
that's the sweet spot. And I'm a huge look. I
believe at the end of the day, what we're really doing.
What if my podcast is or a failure based on
whether I'm educating, And if I'm educating, I think I'm
doing something successful. If I'm not educating you and making
you smarter and making you understand something better than I'm
not doing my job. And I think in some ways,

(01:08:14):
the best way to educate people about news consumption, the
best way to educate people sometimes about American history is
to make the entry point something shocking and tabloid, like
a conspiracy theory, and you suck them in with that,
and then you accidentally teach them about American and oh,
they're accidentally better better in formed. So love where you're headed.

(01:08:38):
Love where you're thinking, and hey, Netflix, if you're listening,
we could be doing a lot more of these, you know,
instead of doing cliff notes of history like you did
with Death by Lightning, where you it's sort of I
find myself ultimately disappointed in this Garf and Death by
Lightning because yes, there's so much they could have done better,

(01:09:01):
and there's so much more of the era that they
could have you know. It literally is like a tasting menu,
like having a taste of what could be an incredible meal.
If Netflix would have let Benioffen Whites do what would
have made an incredible meal, an eight or a ten
part docus series on st of the Rise and follow

(01:09:25):
Carfield anyway, with that, with that programming lineup, getting ready
to be prepared in the back of my brain, I'll
see in twenty four hours, ten minutes, Okay,

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Chuck's Commentary - Trump’s Coalition Is Starting To Crack + Why America Can’t Quit Saudi Arabia