Interview Only w/ Jonathan Martin - Predictions For Trump & American Politics In 2026 - The Chuck ToddCast

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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wasn't going to have a guest but for the for

(01:48):
for this week, I promised you some what if episodes,
some mailbag episodes. We've already delivered one what if actually
two what IF's in one. But my next guest, who
have course is I believe we've we will crown him.
He's part of the five time toddcast club here just
like SNL hosts. It's none other than Jonathan Martin. J

(02:12):
mart somebody I have known worked with Friends with for
thirty plus years. He wrote one of my favorite He
wrote an homage to one of my favorite columns from
the eighties and nineties, the old Bill Sapphire predictions column.

Speaker 2 (02:27):
He called it the office pool.

Speaker 1 (02:30):
All things Bill Sapphire in the New Year used to
used to consume us. If I remember back in the
day we had had this column, then he would go
on Nightline and do that prediction panel with Copple. It
would always be Sapphire, sometimes modout right, sometimes Peggy Noonan,

(02:52):
you know, I but always Sapphire. And he always had
a lot of fun with this. So you wrote this
column and I thought, I know, Jay Martin's got thirty
minutes for me.

Speaker 2 (03:00):
We've got to We've got to have absolutely, especially the
day after New Year's Day, which is a big day
in New Orleans. Uh yeah, for a lot of reasons.

Speaker 1 (03:08):
So well, we are taping on the second that's going
to drop on the first sort of working Monday of
the year. But let's go through. Look, I've said this,
we all have crutches. Around the end of the year.
You have your best of lists two years a lose,
winners and losers, Right, I do what ifs like we
all have a thing you you, but it really is

(03:32):
the topics you sort of hit on sixteen, topics that
you know is going to get covered this year. You
have a little fun, obviously, but but I'm guessing there
were a few topics you hit on first and foremost
that you really wanted to make a point about, and
then there were others that you had to like, well,

(03:53):
I need more items in here.

Speaker 2 (03:54):
So.

Speaker 1 (03:56):
Right, we all get it, right, So give me your
of sixteen. What was the one you were like the
first couple that were like, this is my obsession and
why I wanted to crank out this column.

Speaker 2 (04:07):
Well, it's interesting. It's kinda like, you know, the hardest
writing sometimes is the shortest writing. And I could have
done twenty five pretty easily, right, it would have been
it would have been hard to done like just five.
I did sixteen because I felt like I had fifteen,
and then like, well it's twenty twenty six, and if
I deal sixteenth, I could have fun with a sports question.

(04:29):
So I tossed in a Laine Kiffin question there in
the end. Well, the ones that I think Chucker's screamingly
obvious are what is Trump got to name after himself next, right,
I mean this is less of presidency than it is
a victory lap of somebody who is. Presidence in public
life is entirely about validation and affirmation more than a

(04:52):
day's really any substantive accomplishment. It's about recognition, right, which
has been Trump's identity for fifty years as he wants
to be. He's got to say he's been consumed with
this arguably his entirety. Yeah. And it's never on the marriage,
it's never on subs it's just am I one of
life's winners? And so like. Of course he's spending his
days like building homage to himself and like quite literally

(05:17):
monuments to himself and renaming everything he can after himself,
because that's the whole ballgame. Right.

Speaker 1 (05:24):
What I find it weirdly impressive is that he picks
things to put his name on that. If you're a
Trump opponent and you obsess over too much in some ways,
you look like you're obsessed with the superficial right, the
Institute of Peace, the Kennedy Center, the ball right. It's

(05:45):
absurd that he's obsessed with this. And if you're a
Democratic member of Congress, you're an idiot. If you want
to line up oversight hearings about it too.

Speaker 2 (05:54):
Right, right, because then you're dragged down to his well. Right.
I'm reminded of of last fall when he he got
up there on the campaign tron of Pennsylvania and was
talking about, you know, Arnold Palmer's endowment, and it was like,
you know, Democrats, like, how do you ignore it? But
at the same time, no.

Speaker 1 (06:13):
It's it is, and and that that's weirdly his genius
and how he does this, which is why it ends
up happening like exactly, you're thinking, like the Institute of Peace,
like one of the cooler buildings that you come into DC.
Now it's it's sort of I've always I've been I've
always been impressed with the architecture of it, and i've
been you know, you know, it's like we cleaned up

(06:36):
that whole part of Constitution Avenue. And I don't even
think he knows why Congress endowed the building in the
first place.

Speaker 2 (06:44):
Of course, not besides the point, totally beside the point.

Speaker 1 (06:47):
So I just need it.

Speaker 2 (06:48):
I did the Trump Uh, I just think I I'm
of the view that Trump should be covered with the
level of seriousness that he takes the job, right, and
he doesn't make the job very seriously, Like he can't
be bothered to do the basis about any policy issue.
Any foreign leader. He barely knows their names. He says
the same thing with every foreign leader. A great guy

(07:10):
doing a great job. We get along really, really well.
It's all interchangeable. He just wants to like do the
public facing aspects of the job to get him attention,
notoriety and affirmation. So like that's what he's about. Now.
That's not to say that there's other elements of his
presidency that are deadly serious, those carried about by carried

(07:32):
out by his lieutenants that dud demand intent scrutiny.

Speaker 1 (07:37):
All right, so let's pick what's he gonna name after himself.
I'm impressed with the you know, cherry picking Dallas Airport.
There isn't a big constituency to protect Alan Dallas, right,
So I think I think if he really wants to,
it's this named after him. You know, it's the most

(07:58):
hated airport in the region.

Speaker 2 (08:00):
And was going to say, who hates b W.

Speaker 1 (08:02):
I Uh, it's equally as much because of the false
advertising of the W in it. It is not nowhere
near Washington. But that's my pet, peeve. But everybody hates Dollis.
Everybody hates Dollis. Okay, nay, truy, you want that on
your go ahead, buddy. It's kind of on the.

Speaker 2 (08:18):
Back door troll, right, it's a back door roll. He is, like,
you know, those in the know would get that Trump
being named after Dollas actually is not omas right, right,
control right? Yeah?

Speaker 1 (08:30):
Is that your assumption or what?

Speaker 2 (08:31):
What do you think he tries No, I think he'll
be tempted to do doll It would surprise me if
he tried to grab Dallas. But I think that the
two hundred and fifty eighth anniversary of the country and
the construction of the arc, the Trump that he's going
to build across Memorial Bridge between the Lincoln Memorial and
the Custosly Mansion, I think that temptation will lead him

(08:54):
to just make that that bridge, which nobody really knows
the name of that bridge, but it's a Memorial bridge.
Just call the Trump Bridge.

Speaker 1 (09:01):
Interesting, you know, I want to you know, one of
the things about him that I think it's an un
This is an uncomfortable fact when I bring it up
to people, because they don't want to believe. They don't
want to believe. But do you know who Trump is
most like? I think of previous presidents, it really is
Teddy Roosevelt in in how he Teddy was obsessed with

(09:23):
his legacy. Teddy was constantly very comfortable with stuff being
named after him. I mean, my got he had his
picture etched. That was the only way Mount Rushmore happened.
You're like, wait a minute, Jefferson, Lincoln, Washington, and you right,
it's always been, you know, and like the logger, we've gone,
we've decided that Teddy legacy now sort of lives it.

(09:45):
But you're like, we probably have the wrong Roosevelt on
the Mount Rushmore.

Speaker 2 (09:48):
Oh, not even close, right, right? And yet.

Speaker 1 (09:53):
You know, I I when I bring up how actually
narcissistic Teddy was and how Trump is really most emblematic
to him, it makes people uncomfortable because we want to
like Teddy.

Speaker 2 (10:07):
Yeah, and because Roosevelt is somehow part of the American spirit, Bully,
you know, He's a great Eastern who went west.

Speaker 1 (10:14):
And isn't Trump very much a part of the American
spirit that not everybody loves?

Speaker 2 (10:19):
Yeah, you know, I've always felt that Trump is less
of a political archetype and more of a a pop
culture archetype. P. T.

Speaker 1 (10:31):
Barnum that he's a modern he's Barnum.

Speaker 2 (10:33):
He's Buffalo Bill, but he's he's the traveling salesman coming
through town on the medicine wagon. It's always been a
part of American culture.

Speaker 1 (10:43):
It was just we've always had with Charles Lindberg, we
can keep going, and just none of them ever became president.

Speaker 2 (10:48):
He's the first one that ever became. We always had
a huckster element that people kind of like in our
pop culture, right, you know what people is saying about
sucker is born every minute. I mean, yeah, this is
an old story in American life that Trump has updated
for the TV age and now the digital age, but
it's not new the Trump. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (11:10):
I think the thing that people like you and I
got wrong about him is I think we thought the
country wasn't susceptible to a huckster, like that's right, And
it turns out yeah, we are, you know right, It
turns out we weren't.

Speaker 2 (11:22):
Yeah, we thought that there was a salt water freshwater
division between our politics and our pop culture, and it
turns out it was bracktish, right.

Speaker 1 (11:29):
One of your other questions you put out their predictions, etcetera.
Is a Supreme Court seat opening. I fully believe this too.
You know, if you if you're looking for political pressure
points to try to goose Republican turnout, and you look
at what happened in ninety eight I mean in eighteen,
excuse me, I mean, you know, without the Kavanaugh nomination,

(11:53):
maybe Democrats hang on to two Senate seats. You know,
maybe mccasko finds a way to win, like she will say,
the Kavanaugh Uh fighting that happened essentially four weeks before
election day galvanized the right and really fired them up.
If I were sitting in the white West wing looking
to goose Republican turnout for the midterms, a Supreme Court

(12:15):
fight this summer, you know, would be would would be
what something I would order up after trying the redistricting gambit,
which looks like it's going to end up if Virginia
goes through with what they do, he can end up
actually a net negative for Republicans. But uh so, which
one of them goes? Does he bully Alito out or
is it Thomas?

Speaker 2 (12:36):
It feels like Alito is the more likely one, you know,
that's what. But I've kind of heard through the grave. Ye.

Speaker 1 (12:44):
And also he's got a clerk he's here. I mean,
you could tell the whole flag thing. He doesn't love
being up. Like it's clear that he and his wife
aren't on the same page on this, like one wants
to be a public figure whatever it is. They're just
sort of and he is of the age of like,
you know, but I keep hearing Thomas is done and

(13:04):
ready to get in the RV and you know, maybe
go go to Georgia bulldog games.

Speaker 2 (13:10):
It's clearly one of those two. I think it's just
a matter of which one it is. And especially if
Trump's numbers by let's say the first of March, if
Trump's approval is down thirty one thirty two percent nationally, boy,
I think the pressure is going to be really intense
on one or both of them.

Speaker 1 (13:30):
Because if you don't get up, then you're risking a
bit ter RBG right, right with RBG six Yeah, yeah, no,
I'm I am. I'm one of those who believes that
Democratic chances of winning the Senate are going to seem
a lot more realistic come October of the calendar year.

(13:52):
It's so much like two thousand and six, and that's
why I completely agree. I think, you know, late developing races.
But yeah, we're going to I don't know if it's Mississippi, Kansas,
or Iowa maybe you know, maybe all of them, right,
but we're gonna see We're going to see more competitive
races pop up in some places we haven't been thinking

(14:13):
about or maybe you and I have been thinking about
them but haven't percolated just yet.

Speaker 2 (14:18):
This is notable, hasn't gotten a ton of attention. But
in Nebraska, the same Indie Dan Osborne who ria am
against dem Fisher and lost, you know, ran a solid campaign,
is running this time with the benefit of having the
Democratic Party of Nebraska's TACIT support. And they ain't had

(14:39):
it the last I'd argue, you had it the last time.
But they're not going to run somebody on the ballot.
They didn't run somebody in the last time. That's what
they did. I thought they felt the same. But like
even even a sort of like Joe six Pack running
with the D label is not going to happen, which
could drain eight percent of the vote, is what I'm saying.

Speaker 1 (14:56):
You know, true, But I don't know if you hear
like me, you will watch any game that's on TV.
And I watched the Nebraska Utah game, and you know what,
I saw a lot of I saw a lot of
Pete Ricketts advertising, just very positive ads, just sort of like, hey,
I'm doing what deb Fisher never did, which remind people
that I'm your United States senator.

Speaker 2 (15:17):
He's got money to do.

Speaker 1 (15:19):
Jeb Fisher didn't spend. I am a I am a
skeptic of this race because it's hard to do this.
It's hard to be an insurgent twice.

Speaker 2 (15:29):
It is. It's also a little harder I think for
a Democrat to win a Trump cycle. What Trump's on
top of the ticket, you know, true, and.

Speaker 1 (15:38):
This time he won't be I hear.

Speaker 2 (15:40):
You know. It's funny.

Speaker 1 (15:43):
Deb Fisher was the more vulnerable, you know, if you
think about it like antelopes, like right, you know when
the dinosaurs or the or the cheetahs are going to
take the weakest, you know, the slowest antelope in the herd. Right,
Fisher slower than Rickets because of the mound.

Speaker 2 (15:58):
Right, But yeah, Osborne could could lose by four and
Jasmincrockett could lose by seven. So there you go. Chuck,
I gotta get into the jasmine crowd. By the way,
speaking of Trump not being on top of the ticket,
and I think that that can't be over emphasized enough
in these Senate races right where Kenadates have relied on

(16:20):
that looks Susan Collins wins in twenty twenty in a
Trump in a Trump cycle. Even though Trump loses nationally
and loses Maine, He's Trump still wins the second congressional
district and drives out a lot of voters in Maine
that voted for Collins. Are those folks coming out this time?
I don't know, you know, Chuck, North Carolina? You know

(16:40):
Trump drives rural turnout, right, Are those folks that come
out from Michael Wantley in a midterm cycle in North Carolina?
I don't look.

Speaker 1 (16:49):
I I'm skeptical of Ashley Moody in Florida. The Democrats
syst haven't found in challenge, right, you know, I'm skeptical
of Sydney Hyde Smith and Mississippi. Yeah, you know, there
are a lot of these weaker Look I think, by
the way, I'm surprised you didn't do this one. So
I think the Cynthia Lummus retirement is intriguing in which

(17:15):
Trump adjacent carpetbagger is going to float running in that race.
And you know, one of my favorite rumors that I
had that I had like it was like you know
the chatter, yet you trust you know the chatter that
you trust that Junior was very interested in a Wyoming center.

Speaker 2 (17:35):
Yeah. I heard that last year.

Speaker 1 (17:37):
Yeah, And suddenly when that Lumbus retirement happened, I went up,
this is how it would happen. And given how easily
the Trump Trump folks took over the Wyoming Republican Party,
I mean, just as Liz Cheney, I wouldn't.

Speaker 2 (17:52):
Rule it out.

Speaker 1 (17:53):
And then suddenly you have Vance Junior UH ticket ready
to go. I don't think that's done yet.

Speaker 2 (18:01):
I heard that chatter the early part of twenty twenty five,
like January, February twenty five, I guess a year ago.
Now got done flies and I checked it out and
nobody out there had had heard of it. But Hageman
jumped in immediately got drums endorsement. That feels like a
done deal. I did hear for the junkies will love

(18:22):
this Foster Freeze the lake yas owner late he just
passed away right this year, a year or two ago.
His son apparently still lives around Jackson Hole. I think
his son's sniffing it either well, it would be now
the government Jackson whole carpetbagers have always, you know, always
there's got to be one of that.

Speaker 1 (18:39):
There's got to be Sometimes you get fully rejected, right
and sometimes Look, Liz Cheney wanted to come in early.
Remember she wanted to be a senator first and was
sort of ready to bully out Mike Enzie, and that
didn't work.

Speaker 2 (18:53):
It was one of the most fun stories I wrote
for The Times in my ten years. There was in
the summer of twenty thirteen. I spent a day with
the late Mike Enzi. God loved me. Was a sweet
mam uh. He was doing a town hall tour imagine
that town hall tour by himself down the eastern spine
of Wyoming. I followed them all the day to these
small little towns, and I ended the day in a

(19:15):
town called Lusk, Wyoming. Great date, Lione, And after the
town hall ended, he finally said, I got some time
for you, and I'll come over and pull up a chair.
It couldn't have been nicer, and I said, Senator, I
I hears some chatter that Liz Cheney's thinking about coming
home to primary you. And he said, oh, that's so interesting.
You know, she actually just called me last week about that,

(19:37):
and my face just you know what, White, It's like
one of those moments were like you look down at
your camp record, like make sure it's on. Oh she did,
Senator tell me about that. He totally dropped the dime
on her and basically flushed her out before she wanted
to announce her challenge to Enzi. But you're right that
there's a lot of for the you know, the money. Now,

(20:00):
the changes are different because obviously Dick and Lynn grew
up in Casper, but there's always that element in especially
around Jackson Hole, of folks that have money who want
to run. I was joking with a friend of mine,
I said, I said, I think Teton Village needs a
voice in Washington, and my friends the Titon Village is
doing just fine and Washington trust me.

Speaker 1 (20:20):
Yeah, I was just gonna say, I think they having
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Going back to Supreme Court, I love your I love
your four dominees, puro Oldman, Alien Cannon, Ted Cruz. So
this the machiavellian in me says it'll be Ted Cruz

(22:32):
to eliminate him as a dvance primary opponent.

Speaker 2 (22:36):
Well, I was gonna say, you know, that'd be the
vance preference exactly to get Cruz Cruise out of the
Senate onto the Court. I think Trump is so taken
with these traditional credentials of Harvard clerkships, you know, federalist society,
this and that, and this young fellow not young but

(22:57):
he's forty seven. Uh, Andrew Oldham is is on a
circuit now down in Austin, Texas, play.

Speaker 1 (23:04):
In the game, right, and he's he was he was
an Alito.

Speaker 2 (23:07):
Clerk, Chuck Sam with a Cavanaugh was a clerk for
oh God, Stanford, Tony Kennedy. You know, I just think
that this makes the most sense. But you're right, Cruise
would be the play if it was Vansa's call. Come
back to the actually Moody race. By the way, but

(23:28):
you mentioned actually movie. There are a couple of people
I hear.

Speaker 1 (23:31):
She's not crazy about the job, by the way. She
doesn't love it, sort of got pushed it, talked into it.
I've heard, like I said, I I've just heard some
interesting chatter that she may not be long for that
seat even if she wins the like she may finish
the term but not seek the full six.

Speaker 2 (23:49):
I think one of the most under reported storylines of
the mid term cycle are the two appointees who are
basically anonymous in DC and don't get any tension in
the national press.

Speaker 1 (24:01):
John Hewn and Houstead in Ohio, right.

Speaker 2 (24:04):
And actually Moody in Florida. Here are these two states
that you know in this century, were like the pre
eminent battleground states. They're red tilted. Now, I get that,
but you have two appointees with not much of profile
in DC. Now, Houston has more a profile back home
in Ohio because he was in politics so long. But
I just think that there's so much ink spilled shock

(24:25):
on the Texas Senate race. And then I can just
rank thembout this for an hour.

Speaker 1 (24:29):
I know the politic you know, Texas senator. Remember remember
my rants of two thousand about the damn New York
Senate race, and we kept covering Clinton Lazio as if
it was competitive. And it's like, this race is not competitive,
and the only thing national reporters wanted to cover in

(24:49):
the Senate was the Hillary Clinton Center ration.

Speaker 2 (24:51):
You're like, guys, that's not competitive. Go see the Rod
Grahams and stop.

Speaker 1 (24:56):
Let's go to two. Let's that was a real race,
Mark Dayton and Rod Grahams.

Speaker 2 (25:00):
Yeah, I spent Abrahim w stabanow Man.

Speaker 1 (25:05):
Now, but I would argue this Ken Paxton and Jasmine
Crocketts the Senate race our politics deserves, yes, and in
some ways I'd like it, you know, let's have it out.
And I don't know who would win that. I really
don't you know. I think you would assume that it's

(25:26):
Texas and that an African American woman's kind of a
harder time winning than a white male. But Paxton is
so corrupt, is so corrupted an anti woman that I
don't rule anything out.

Speaker 2 (25:39):
What percent of like Democratic donors activists could even tell
you the name of the incumbent senator in Ohio, where
they've got a much better shot I would argue to
win a race than in Texas. It's incredible, Like you
have Sharon Brown running I state, think he's won elections
in for half century against an appointee, and it gets
next to no buzz anyways, as does my ram hell.

(26:01):
I would say even Roy Cooper, the former tutor and
governor of North Carolina, that race gets oddly little attention.
I think it's the political hobbyist culture that's taken over
the internet, right, so everything is about Platiner in Maine,
or now it's Tall Rico and Crockett in Texas. Like
the less sexy races, whether it's Houston and Ohio against

(26:24):
Brown or uh Cooper Carolina.

Speaker 1 (26:27):
Don't you think it's the obsession of trying to find
like these. You know, you're like, well, we missed keep Boodhages,
we missed Ted Cruz, right, and they both were the
next avatar? Yeah, who's the next you know, one of those?
And everybody's constantly looking for that, right, is it?

Speaker 2 (26:43):
Graham Platner, right, is exactly? Is it? Also there's there's
the forever Hillary Bernie proxy war too, right, which will
never never end, right, And so that's part of.

Speaker 1 (26:54):
Well now it really is just Bernie's proxy war with everybody.

Speaker 2 (27:00):
Right, He's still rocking that same jacket and gloves.

Speaker 1 (27:02):
I saw, you know, you know, I'll tell you that,
you know, the campaign we never had. And I thought about, Look,
I went through my the what if that I dropped
earlier this week was what if I did it? I
did it at two parter. It was essentially what if
Trump had either conceded normally in twenty twenty or what

(27:23):
if Trump had won in twenty twenty?

Speaker 2 (27:25):
Yeah, And.

Speaker 1 (27:28):
I really was, you know, when I when I went
through the exercise, what the most fascinating thing was actually
realizing how much January sixth really changed Biden and Ron
Klaine and how they conducted that presidency, you know, and
how much. It changed everything because there's not a democratic Senate.
If there's no if if Trump doesn't do what he does,

(27:48):
like I'm convinced that Georgia goes at least one and
one doesn't go both in directions Democrats And what is
the Joe Biden agenda with a Republican Senate? Right, it
doesn't completely different presidency and who you knowing deals?

Speaker 2 (28:05):
Right McConnell and Biden are doing deals. There are Democrats
will privately tell you they regret. The day January fifth,
twenty January fenty was a huge It bleated that ruined.
Biden didn't run to be that president. He ran to
be the transformational let's settle down, and in some ways
the only way that could be successful is if you

(28:27):
had divided government, and not having divide a government almost
forced them to, well, we better try to go big now,
because how often do you get this? You know? And
by the way, nobody will be.

Speaker 3 (28:40):
More about this than one term due to Biden's collapsing
numbers in the fall of twenty twenty one, because.

Speaker 2 (28:50):
Of in part we Afghanistan in part, but also because
of Biden's vaulting ambitions, and by the way, the day
after that twenty twenty one election, I had an up
and coming Democrat. Tell me, mister president Nobody, I'd like
you to be Franklin Roosevelt. We wanted to make where
is that up becoming democrats. Democrat's name was albig Els

(29:10):
Bamberger Governor. I lacked Abigail's Bamberger.

Speaker 1 (29:12):
Yeah, she's she's almost governor. We're only a few days
away on that one. A few other things from your
prediction column, Uh, the next place, what's that? The next
place he's ordering airstrikes, and your choices of Venezuela ran
again Russia, and then you have some fun with Canada.
But I want to single out Iran. And I'm going

(29:36):
to have a guest on this in a in about
ten days. But I think when when I think about
the stories that I'm trying to prepare for that not
a lot of people are focused on, I think that
I think the regime is going to collapse in Iran.
It's I was in Abu Dhabi a couple of weeks
ago at a journalism conference.

Speaker 2 (29:53):
There.

Speaker 1 (29:54):
People that are going in and out of of Tehran
are just it's And you know, Abu Dhabi has a
huge rainy and diaspora. It is all the buzz that
the regimes days are numbered now, you know. Look, it's
like with a sod in Syria. You knew it was
going to happen. You just is it today? Is it
next year? Is it five years? But it was gonna

(30:16):
there was no way this was sustainable. And you know
the lack of running water in Tehran is going to
blow this regime up? Is it in twenty six? And
what does Trump do? Who will probably want a little
bit of credit when it happens on his watch.

Speaker 2 (30:33):
Right, he'll probably name the airport in Toronto for himself. Exactly. No, Yeah, Look,
presidencies are always about the unexpected events, right, and that's
the maximum our times. And I mean nobody would have
guessed that, like the second Trump residency could be defined
by right though the fall of the Aatola but and

(30:53):
the regime that has governed her on for the last
forty five years, but totally plausible.

Speaker 1 (30:57):
Oh, Chris, you want to talk about reshaping the Middle East?
You have a we have a demo semi democratic regime
in Iran. I mean, it's going to be fascinating, it's
you know it, We really could finally resolve World War One.

Speaker 2 (31:16):
Yeah, mhm. And and also I mean it takes a
massive sponsor of terrorism, you know, off the map really does, uh.
And also undermines the broader access between a lot of
these countries who are obviously against the West, Russia and.

Speaker 1 (31:37):
The irony is that the only person staying in the
way for a stable Biddlelaet might be be being at
Yahoo right after that point, that he could be seen
as the most unstable force, not not his his government,
not the country, but his government. And also it also
seems unsettled. He does seem a little unsettled about all this. Suddenly, Oh,

(31:59):
Trump's gonna cut deals with Syria now, and Trump's gonna
cut deals all over the like, and you know he'll
do it with Iran if there's a new regime in Iran,
look how openly and of course he would love.

Speaker 2 (32:11):
A lot of money. It also makes you wonder how
the Saladies react. But you know, if they're you know,
if if the major Shei country in the region suddenly
has a vacuum, what does MBS do, uh? And how
does he operate?

Speaker 1 (32:24):
And I think U A out maneuvers them. And in Iran,
part of it is just because they, like I said,
there's a big Iranian diaspora, and yeah, yeah, with money.

Speaker 2 (32:35):
It's fascinating.

Speaker 1 (32:36):
No, it is, and it's going to be. Look do
I think Venezuela. Look, I think Venezuela could become a
real political problem for Trump because this is the pottery
barn rule.

Speaker 2 (32:46):
Right.

Speaker 1 (32:47):
If we're going to keep bombing on land, yes, and
we succeed, are we walking away from rebuilding Caracas?

Speaker 2 (32:54):
I don't think so. Also, Uh, Steven Miller, pick up
your phone, because if you create some kind of regime
change in Venezuela and you've got a flight of Venezuelans,
you know, into the US. Well, the history of countries
that we meddle him is that a lot of folks
from those countries come to our country. Right, So, speaking

(33:17):
of great historical ironies, the the market Rubio of Venezuela
policy could be the Steven Miller nightmare. Right.

Speaker 1 (33:23):
Well, I've often wondered, I feel like Rubio, Look, we
know Rubios the architect of all this, right, Yeah, And
I've often thought that Rubio, I hope he realizes that
the second things go wrong, he's the fall guy, right, Like,
I don't know when Rubio's time with Trump comes to

(33:44):
an end, but I think I know what it's over.
And at some point when Trump has to blame somebody
else for a foreign policy adventure, it ain't going to
be him. It's going to be his secretary State.

Speaker 2 (34:00):
And this is why, by the way, Chuck a different prediction,
but for the same principle that you just outline, I
think Cash Battel is going to be a fall guy
in twenty twenty six too, because whenever there's some kind
of incident or a manhunt that goes awry, or some
big flap and embarrassment in which, you know, so there's
a tragedy that happens, somebody's taken the fall for that,

(34:21):
and it's not going to be somebody in the White House,
you know, I don't.

Speaker 1 (34:24):
I get the sense that Cash Hotel doesn't have as
many supporters in the West wing as perhaps he did
around in Trump's inner circle in twenty two and twenty
three that he does in the current West.

Speaker 2 (34:34):
Clearly, and by the way, one of the big storylines
of the second Trump term is the leaks are still coming,
but they're coming more about the cabinet than they are
the principal himself. The first term, the leaks were about
Trump himself and Trump's behavior in the West Wing sort
of well, because you had a mix of establishmentarians in

(34:56):
the West Wing who are at the guest. Yeah, the
leaks this time are about the cabinet because it's between
cabinet folks. It's between West Wing staff and cabinet folks.
So there's this idea of like, oh, there's no more
leaks this time. There's plenty of leaks. It's just it's
about the cabinet and the staff, not Trump. All right,
let me give you.

Speaker 1 (35:15):
I'm going to give you Christy Nome, Cash, Betel Pete
Haigset who's the least likely to finish the year calendar year?

Speaker 2 (35:22):
And I think Pel, yeah, Cash, and I think no,
I would put no second yeah, and also Chuck. I
think for a similar reason. I hate to say this,
but look it, we're just a vulnerable you know, you know,
in this country, in the West broadly, and if there
is God forbid, some kind of a tragedy, you know
they're gonna get get homeland security.

Speaker 1 (35:41):
It took their eye off the ball or yeah, you
could picture that storyline right totally. I won't ask you
a question though about Florida.

Speaker 2 (35:48):
Yeah, all right, it's actually kind of a fun story
the two traditional Maybe I should write this the two
traditional battleground states of the odds Florida and Ohio. Yeah,
they used to have football programs too. I think more
on that leader.

Speaker 1 (36:04):
But Florida and Ohio, well, the rightful order has been
is being restored with the other state of Miami on tap.

Speaker 2 (36:10):
But anyway, it's but Florida and Ohio right totally undercovered.
I think in twenty twenty six, talk to me about Florida,
your your home state, which is the more leftic to flip?
If the dams were to strike gold and win in
twenty six and Florida is a governor senate.

Speaker 1 (36:27):
Oh, it's one hundred percent gov because of the financial
if the look I think the state is. I think
senate races are harder to win in Florida now for
Democrats than governors races. Right, you're going to get to
that point, we're going to move, We're going to shift

(36:47):
towards the sort of in Kansas. Right, I don't know
if Democrats were still probably I think by the by
twenty thirty six, they'll be a Democratic senator in Kansas.
I do I think in the next ten years we're
getting there. It's shifting. It has all the elements. You know,
you've got three suburban areas. That's you know, when you

(37:08):
look at how red states become purple states, Kansas looks
very similar to what we've seen in Georgia, what we've
seen in Aunt. You're seeing Colorado. So I buy it, right,
I sort of buy it that it's coming. But in Florida,
I do think the Jersey matters a lot more in
Senate races, right, you're like, Okay, who who's going to

(37:29):
be representing us in Washington. But you know, you've got
a property tax problem in the state. You've got high
electricity bills in the state. You've got all these sort
of issues that really are state driven, less less so
than the fed fed driven. DeSantis isn't popular. He's not
like he's not you know, in his work. He's probably
more popular than Trump, right because right now Trump's got

(37:51):
the economy sort of really dragging him.

Speaker 2 (37:53):
Down a little bit.

Speaker 1 (37:54):
But DeSantis doesn't have many friends in Tallahassee these days,
and primary could get a messy. I I and you know,
in theory, Democrats actually have two viable candidates in Jerry
Demings and David Jolly, but it is silly that they're

(38:16):
primary in each other. One ought to be running in
the Senate race. Right here we go again, right, one
of them ought to be running in the center race
because they could use a better ticket. Okay, But I
do think if you're saying if the bottom falls out
for the right, what would fall first? Look, I think
that I think Donalds is a terrible first name. It's congressman,

(38:37):
and I think that's going to be a tough you know. Now,
I think David Jolly is a terrible first name. It's
former congressman and former lobbyists. Like in a weird way, Demings,
the Donald's is intriguing to me because he gets to
be a mayor, a former mayor versus a former congressman.
I just look, there's a huge financial disparity. So I'm

(39:00):
not gonna I don't want people to think, hey, Chuck
Todd says the Florida governor's.

Speaker 2 (39:03):
Race is competitive. It's not competitive yet.

Speaker 1 (39:06):
It may not get there. But if you're asking me,
I would, I would. I would have an easier time
concocting a campaign against thirty years of Republican rule against
you know what I mean, Like, are you really frustrated
by the rising cost of living in Florida? Well, you
know who's not fixed property taxes, who's not fixed insurance?

Speaker 2 (39:25):
Who's not? Right?

Speaker 1 (39:26):
Like, it's an easier campaign to be very similar to
what Nancy excuse me, Kathleen Sibilius and then Laura Kelly
essentially successfully pulled off in Kansas.

Speaker 2 (39:37):
Yeah, right, yeah, I might be my guess the.

Speaker 1 (39:43):
Now, I'll give you a one wild card, yep, Okay,
I do think DeSantis is going to try to do
redistricting in Florida. The seat they may target is Jared Moskowitz,
one of the seats they may target. And he said
he's said to me, I mean he's he's on the
record of this. He goes, if they come after me,

(40:03):
then I may run for Senate.

Speaker 2 (40:05):
And he could be a.

Speaker 1 (40:05):
Pretty good Senate he could. He could raise a decent
chunk of money. He would be the pro Israel Democratic
Senate candidate in Florida. Right, you couldn't ledge him out
on that one issue, which is very meaningful in South Florida,
And uh, you know I wouldn't. I'm skeptical that I'm
skeptical he could win votes north of Okalla, but you know, uh,

(40:29):
he certainly could make it an.

Speaker 2 (40:30):
Interesting That's fascinating, that's fascinating. But coming back to our
two thousand and six scenario, Yeah, we have to we
have to think about a world in which after Labor Day,
Trump's at thirty percent approval and the world looks different. Now,
let's go ahead.

Speaker 1 (40:44):
No, I look, I agree. It's why I'm keeping an
eye on. You know, I don't even completely right off
the independent candidacies, the sort of the the the Osborne
like guys at South Dakota. Yeah, Missipi Andippian in in Idaho,
although Idaho feels like a real stretch. This was my

(41:12):
favorite one that you did because I feel like you
had a hidden agenda in this one, mister Martin. So
I'm going to read this one which twenty twenty eight
Democratic presidential hopeful will unwittingly hurt their candidacy by writing
a book. And what I found interesting is you didn't
just list names. You had a very specific assumption that
you made that My guess is you already know this

(41:35):
is making the round. So with Newsome, it is by
revealing he's still doing self discovery in his late fifties.
Shapiro by making his origin story a tragedy and that
it may come across a little too glib over time,
it won't wear well. Harris confusing her book to her.
I completely agree with you on the Harris thing. I
think I think she's confusing interest in her book and

(41:56):
the book to her into interest in her candidacy. And
then Bootage, you know, Botag, It to me is the
the Bruce Willis sixth sense candidate. Everybody knows he has
no chance except him, and it's because you know, he
became and the irony is he if Biden, if if

(42:17):
there's no COVID, he was the nominee in twenty I'm
like eighty percent convinced of that.

Speaker 2 (42:23):
But I do think Bootage has never got a path,
No Chuck, forget COVID for a minute. Let's start with Iowa.
If the Iowa Democrats get their account locked up, right, he.

Speaker 1 (42:35):
Probably won't, but I still think, but let's let's play
it out.

Speaker 2 (42:38):
The way it will wins Iowa, he gets a clean
balance in new Hamshter, he wins in.

Speaker 1 (42:42):
Hampshire, you know, right, But even still it's a split decision,
and it's Bernie versus Pete and and there's no Biden
in this scenario. Right with with COVID, COVID made it
easier for everybody to say, off, screw it, We'll just
rally around the old guy. But without that, without COVID,

(43:02):
I think it's Bernie and Bootage. And I do think
Boothajige wins simply out of absolute fear that Bernie would lose.

Speaker 2 (43:10):
Yeah, yeah, so let's take all of them. So yeah,
So I look, anyway, going back Newsom, Shapiro, Harris, it
feels like it feels like you know something on Newsome
and Shapiro, or you're already you already think that they've
maybe already peaked. I think it's more just like I've
heard about these books and what's in them, and I

(43:32):
know they're the personalities of all these folks. And look,
Newsome's challenge is that, you know, it's not a fair line.
Jerry Brown's gonna hear this and get mad at me.
But California folks, they're a little flaky. It's the land
of fruit and nuts. And Gavin's a good looking guy
and comes off as articulate, but he's still doing this

(43:53):
self discovery stuff and how old is See, it's just
easier to kind of caricature I think him and this book.
I've been told that he's coming out with here pretty soon.
Pretty raw about him knew his self discovery. On the
Shapiro thing, this is more sensitive. But he had this
terrible family tragedy that's you know, arsening at the mansion
in Harrisburg. The risk for Shapiro is he just uses

(44:17):
that as a political origin story to run a presidential
campaign and it backfires because it's just too unsubtle about
what happened. In the case of Harris, it's a straightforward
she thinks folks buying her book beings they wanted to
run again, which ain't the case. On Buddha Jedge, he's
a smart guy, and his book will show that he's
a smart guy, but he's the smartest guy in the room,

(44:39):
which is why his future in politics is in a
pointive not electoral politics. I think you could pick and
he had those four tell you the truth. I chose
the Kamala Harris. There's no appetite among Democrats, Chuck to
relive anything to do with twenty twenty four. All Right,
I completely agree, Joe Biden, come here.

Speaker 1 (45:01):
If you have Biden on your resume, you're done. And
this is my issue. I think Pete and Kamala have
the same issue.

Speaker 2 (45:07):
It's a similar challenge. Look who was not on a
campaign trail in twenty twenty one. Joe Biden, Kamala Harris
Tim Walls, who are the three main actors from the
twenty twenty four campaign, could not be fell on anywhere
on a campaign trail the following year because the party
doesn't want to relive the battle days of twenty four.
I think that is her challenge, and I think she

(45:28):
knows that, and we'll flirt with this, but ultimately she's
not going to want to come back to lose a primary.

Speaker 1 (45:34):
What do you make, By the way, let's do a
quick little rabbit hole, which is what you and I do.
What do you make of the California governor's race and
the lack of.

Speaker 2 (45:44):
I feel like the field is not sad. Oh.

Speaker 1 (45:48):
I know it's funny to be The prediction markets have
Eric Swallwell as the front runner now and you're just
like wow, and I'm you know, prediction markets in some
places I don't pay attention to California races. I do
just because I know it's more Californiaan's throwing money in
there than most most other places.

Speaker 2 (46:09):
We'll see at least one additional candidate. It feels a
little bit like the fall of twenty nineteen shock when
Mike Bloomberg and Deval Patrick jumped in the late into
the Democratic primary for president. Forget Patrick even jumped in.
There's a vacuum there.

Speaker 1 (46:25):
Other than one hundred percent of vacuum.

Speaker 2 (46:26):
It's the biggest.

Speaker 1 (46:27):
Don't you think Kamala gets talked back. I've heard that
they she was Some were trying to tuck her back
into it.

Speaker 2 (46:34):
I think that's I'm that's certainly one scenario. Rick Caruso, who,
of course wrong.

Speaker 1 (46:40):
Caruso is the one that everybody is saying is waiting
in the war, waiting in the wings our friend Mike Murphy.
Is he really going to run his first Democratic campaign?

Speaker 2 (46:50):
I know, right? Is this really?

Speaker 1 (46:52):
Is he going to go full? Is it like I've
always thought he wasn't going to do that, that he'd
run it independent. I'll be very curious what our buddy
mine does.

Speaker 2 (47:00):
What it feels like Caruso is tempted to do mayor
what he ran for one so already rather than governor.
But we'll see if folks can change his mind. And
then you know, if the think about the Democratic ranking
member check of the Oversight Committee, Robert Garcia from Long Beach,
somebody who liked Jared Moscovitz is one of these gung
house Democrats that has a knack for attention and publicity.

(47:23):
I don't know, maybe he jumps in. It just feels
like there's or maybe somebody from the outside, a sort
of Tom Steyer type figure.

Speaker 1 (47:35):
Well, Styer jumped in, I think thinking it was. I mean, look,
I just think Stier's problem is he doesn't wear well
yeah right, he's so intense. And I say this sort
of out of respect. By the way, you don't become
as successful as he is if you don't have an
intensity or drive all of those things. But it's not

(47:55):
a pleasant it doesn't come across as very accessible, Chuck.

Speaker 2 (48:01):
I also wonder if Newsom and Newsom's lieutenants may try
to get back at maybe Padilla, have Padilla take a
look at it again, Tomal, the thing is possible.

Speaker 1 (48:13):
Well, you know what opposite of this state I think,
don't underestibate via Ragosa to suddenly charm his way. If
they don't, if this field doesn't get better.

Speaker 2 (48:26):
Well. Also, also let's let's take swallowed seriously for a minutes,
speaking of young House Democrats.

Speaker 1 (48:31):
I know he can raise a ton of money.

Speaker 2 (48:34):
He knows how to raise money. And that's the that's
the that's table stakes out there. You gotta get to
the with with money, and I think he can do that.
And also I'll tell you a little story here real fast.
The day before the election in November now of last year,
when California was voting on the ballot measure and reapportionment,
I was in San Francisco for the final rally that

(48:55):
Newsom had at a labor hall. But it was traded
with drama, not things have new, some of his future,
but because Pelosi was about to announce her retirement and
this is her hometown. So at the press conference after
the rally, Gavin's not there. It's just it's it's Pelosi
in the House Democrats, including Zoe Lofgren and including Swallwell,

(49:17):
and the body language of Pelosi trying to give attention
to Swallwell and nudge Swallwell forward to get to the
camera as fashionate like Swawell. And I'll tell you you're Swalwell.
That's not a bad person to have in your corner.

Speaker 1 (49:30):
She's well, it's funny you brought up San Francisco. My
dark horse candidate to get talked into running is the
mayor of San Francisco's daniel lewiy Because he could self
fund a raise. He's already seen as like the center
left mayor that's not woke and somehow is making San
Francisco work right.

Speaker 2 (49:50):
Well, the point of personal privilege here, I think I
was the first national writery work. You usually are to
do a big piece on Luriy. I was there for
his inauguration in January. In fact, it was such a
smart move when you did that. I remember this time
last year and I wrote a cable card with with
he and his family. He's the anti Gavin. He's not flashy,
he's not he's not Swath. There's no gel in that here.

(50:14):
He's just a sort of grinder chuck and he's a
business type. And but he's got I mean speaking of
a nact for publicity. He has figured out the key
to being mayor is he got a cell sell sell
and boy, he has sold San Francisco and everybody in
the press loves a comeback story. This city. There was
all the drug user and the homeless nest everything. It's backff,

(50:36):
It's back here we are. You know, the super Bowl
is going to be there next month in Santa Clara.
But it's okay. He has gotten Just count the Wall
Street Journal news stories and opinion columns about Daniel Lwry
in that city in the last calendar year.

Speaker 1 (50:52):
Yeah, no, I mean it is.

Speaker 2 (50:54):
We'll find out.

Speaker 1 (50:55):
At least I've been one of the first people. You say,
one of the one of the worst things you could
have on your resume to be a national figure is
former mayor of San Francisco or former office holder in
San Francisco. I just think, like you know, Kamala Harris
and Gavin Newsom are never going to become president because
of that, right, the perception of San Francisco being sort
of our like wild and crazy city, et cetera, et cetera.

(51:16):
But Lourie's interesting to me and in some ways, you
know there. I don't think a tech self funder is
going to be trusted. I think the pitchforks are out
everywhere around the country, so I don't think the old well,
maybe somebody in Silicon Valley will throw money around. I
think Lurie has laundered that image of himself by actually

(51:39):
being in office, so he can run as an office holder,
not as just.

Speaker 2 (51:42):
Sort of somebody else who Lord knows craves and craves attention,
and it has certainly huge ambitions. And that's Roe Connell,
the House member right now.

Speaker 1 (51:52):
I think I heard he already rejected this. I've heard
people went to him said, you know, you.

Speaker 2 (51:56):
Can win this. He's just not going to be denied
the national state.

Speaker 1 (52:01):
He's not a Californian. I say this with respect. How
often when you've had a conversation with Conna does he
make sure to know he grew up in Bucks County.
He does not want to be associated with a California.
So he has so far talked himself out of that,
you know, and in some ways trying to rebrand himself

(52:21):
as the guy who moved to California to learn about tech.
But he's really a kid from.

Speaker 2 (52:26):
Bucks you know, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah yeah.

Speaker 1 (52:30):
All right, all right, let me get this one more
and then I'll get you out of here, I promise.
By the end of twenty twenty six, which Republican will
emerge is the best position to challenge JD. Vance for
the twenty twenty eight nomination. Your fours are Ted Cruz,
who I've put in the Supreme Court by now, Ivanka Trump.
I might I might have done anybody with the Trump

(52:53):
last name, not just Ivanka, but we'll put a pin
in that.

Speaker 2 (52:56):
Tucker Carlson or Marco Rubia. What was your answer? I
had some fun here, Chuck, because I am a student
of the Chris Christie school of Donald J. Trump studies. Uh,
And the Chris Christie axiom is everybody around Donald Trump
starts with a hundred points on a debit line, and
the debit line only goes one direction. It only goes sick. Right.

(53:19):
The only exception to this is Ivanka Trump. She does
not have that same challenge and Christie's Christie's bid is
that the debit line goes south faster for some than others,
but it's only going one direction. And so if you
if why did that, maximum, Chuck, then Ivanka Trump is
going to be the person who is best positioned to

(53:40):
challenge Vance because Trump will get tired of everybody else, right,
why her and not Laura. It's his daughter, I know.

Speaker 1 (53:52):
I mean blood, blood is thicker than then than the
marriage license.

Speaker 2 (53:56):
Yeah, I mean I think we underestimate Trump's desire for
you know, just sort of keeping the Trump name.

Speaker 1 (54:06):
And see, I totally agree with this. I am convinced
that a Trump is going to be a candidate. I'm
so glad you wrote now. I just don't believe It'savanka.
I actually, if I can buy stock, or it's Eric,
I think Trump. I think you know, it's interesting. Have
you did you notice during Eric's book tour he totally
floated the idea of running for president himself someday. Yes,

(54:29):
he didn't, and he never plays deference to his brother ever, Okay,
ever he is. I think there's a weird rivalry between
the two. I think it's obvious who Daddy trusts to
run the business and who he doesn't trust to run
the business. And I think it's obvious who he thinks
is the most competent of his kids. I think he

(54:50):
thinks it's Eric. I think that's why Laura gets so
much stuff. So I do think that you know you're
you're in the same arena. I'man belief system my men,
which is Trump is not going to let Vance have
this easy. He may eventually come around to Vance, but

(55:12):
he's going to This is going to be something Vance
is going to have to He may have to get
more I mean, he may have to get thicker knee pads.

Speaker 2 (55:23):
Vance was anti Trump down now he's pro Trump. What's
to say he couldn't be anti Trump again, Ivonka.

Speaker 1 (55:29):
Especially if he's sitting at thirty one percent. Vance is machiavelliant,
that's right. Peter Thial is going to be telling him, Hey,
maybe time to ditch Trump.

Speaker 2 (55:37):
Eric and Ivanka Trump are never going to be anti
Trump because their last name was Trump. So it's like
this is the family project.

Speaker 1 (55:44):
Yeah, I think this is more likely than folks realize.
I know. And we're so dismissive. We're collectively dismissive of
it because we're always dismissive of things we've never seen before.

Speaker 2 (55:55):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (55:56):
And the thing with Donald Trump, with we all have
had to learn is just because it hasn't had and
doesn't mean it.

Speaker 2 (56:00):
Well, there was a column I was going to write
if Laura Trump had run for the Senate. I wanted
to write this. Now she obviously that didn't do it,
but I think her not running was significant because if
she had run, it would have been very important chuckle,
because if she was to have won, it would have
perpetuated the Trump name and created the Trump dynasty. I

(56:22):
know liberals are going to hate to hear that, but
that's one step closer to making this a longer term project.
It makes it two generations of Trump's. I just think
Laura took a pass in twenty six North Carolina. I
don't think that we're going to have the next generation
of Trump's take a pass forever, whether it's twenty eight
or thirty. I remind you, will remind you of two cycles.

(56:47):
Nineteen ninety two, George HW. Bush loses a reelection. The
following cycle of nineteen ninety four, his two sons run
for governor of to the biggest states in the country.
One wins, one loses. But the point is that one
cycle between the two sons of the president running for governor.

(57:07):
The Trump's are nobles, the ambitious of the Bushes.

Speaker 1 (57:10):
There are four names that there are four names out
there in American history that have produced multiple presidents or
close to presidents, right, and it's it's the Adams is
the Roosevelts, the Bushes, and the Kennedy's, and Trump wants
to be all of them.

Speaker 2 (57:27):
Of course he does. I mean back to Mount Rushmore.
He wants, you know, literally but also better for k
He wants to be on Rushmore. And one of the
ways you do that is you name stuff after yourself.
You get peace prizes, you do big trade deals with countries.

Speaker 1 (57:42):
That you get a kid elected, and you get a
sign elected.

Speaker 2 (57:46):
And you get a sign one who can carry the
banner going forward. We haven't talked about this yet, but
this is important. Twenty twenty six. The biggest China dove
in Washington is Donald Trump, right always has Trump is
a total China dove. Look, it was so cla when
he was asked at mar Lago about the new Trump
class of chefs. Speaking of Trump namestuff after himself, he said,

(58:07):
is this is this being done to send a message
of containment or whatever against the Chinese? He said, no, no,
no, no no. We got along with China very very well.
I mean, he doesn't want to be in conflict with China.
He wants to deals with China. Schuck. I think twenty
twenty six will see Trump and en g standing together

(58:28):
in Beijing signing a major deal. Now, who knows what
the actual details are going to be. Trump doesn't care
about that, but the image is going to be indelible.
Trump will say I brought the two superpowers of the
world together. I preempted World War three, and I have
done this great personal diplomacy and brought brought our great

(58:48):
nations together. I'm telling you it's gonna happen in twenty
twenty six.

Speaker 1 (58:52):
And that will be politically unpopular both sides of the eye.
Getting neck cozy with China. That could be what splinters
his coalition. Yeah, you know, the dirty little secret about
the twenty twelve presidential election is how much China bashing
helped Obama defeat Romney. Yes, in the in the industry,
in the agricultural and industrial Midwest, right, And I just

(59:15):
you know, I don't.

Speaker 2 (59:16):
Think every time Trump says he's for h one, BV
says because we can't do those jobs in America, says, yeah,
we're gonna have Chinese kids here studying at universities. We
need their money. It's what he actually believes.

Speaker 1 (59:28):
Because the MAGA hates it. Now, the true believers in
MAGA hate it. Dead fun with Lane Kiff, the Lane
Kiff and experience in Aution. We are speaking the night
the morning after Ole misses, upset of Georgia. Yes, and

(59:52):
the and the lesser and the and the changing of
the guard, the humiliation. I'm I'm a what Alabama is
going through. I went through in two thousand and four,
two thousand and five with Miami, where you're a you're
you're still a dynasty, but you could feel the exhaust
fumes are catching up. Other teams have caught up. For Miami,

(01:00:13):
it was in a humiliation by LSU actually in a
Peach Bowl we lost forty two to three. It just
sort of that was it. That's when you knew it
was over. The dynasty was ending, a pay the era
was ending for Miami for that period that Indiana loss
felt that way. I'm going in a long about way

(01:00:33):
of this. Klen de Bor now has eight losses in
two years. It took Nick Saban five years to get
eight losses. Another three loss or worse season in Tuscaloosa
means he's gone by the end of twenty six. Yes,
I think Klein de Bor is miserable. I think it's
it sucks. The ghost you're chasing lives in Tuscalaloosa. He's

(01:00:56):
on ESPN all the time. God bless him. I love
bet Man. I love Nick Saban, Okay, i'm a.

Speaker 2 (01:01:02):
I'm a.

Speaker 1 (01:01:02):
I love the guy I would I do. I want him.
I want him to be commissioned. I think his idea
uh to to to move spring practices in the and
the portal to May and June makes like total sense.

Speaker 2 (01:01:14):
Right.

Speaker 1 (01:01:14):
So, but I think the choice you left out on
on Lane Kiff and experience in l s U will
be drama and debacle of a year, et cetera, et cetera.
The one thing you leave out is him leaving for Alabama.
But I think there is one job. He was the
reason he didn't sign that deal with LSU as quickly
as he did is he was waiting to see if

(01:01:35):
Alabama would lose the Iron Bowl to Auburn. He was
waiting to see if Alabama to get left out of
the play. He if the Alabama job opens up, he
wants it. I'm telling you he wants it, and Lane
kit and it and I and I think especially if
LSU does pretty well next year, which if they use
old Missus roster.

Speaker 2 (01:01:54):
They will get it in fairness to myself, I haven't
written that. I wrote it before Bama got sped Indiana.
I know you did. So there was no scenario in
which kiln to Boor was going to be on the
hot seat in twenty twenty six. There is now had
gone to or won a national title this year. Now
that said, I agree, kill the Bore loses three to

(01:02:18):
five games this fall in Alabama, it's going to be hard,
uh up for him to hang on. And yeah, Kiffin
the mercenario, he would certainly love to hop the Bama.
There's there's no question about it. I wonder if the
Boor self deports Joe. I think he does. I think
he would have.

Speaker 1 (01:02:34):
I think if the Michigan I think the Michigan job
is such a potential nightmare scenario that anybody in there,
like I, you want to I'll be the guy after
the next guy in Michigan.

Speaker 2 (01:02:46):
Right like that, Let's let's stop bearing the leader and
talk about what's actually on your mind, which is the
University of Miami Hurricanes return to greatness. I mean, first
of all, I'm happy for you as your friend, that
your your experience in this.

Speaker 1 (01:03:00):
We're doing it the right way. That we're doing it
in a sustainable way, that's all. I think it's pretty sustainable.

Speaker 2 (01:03:06):
We'll see this so good for the game of college football.

Speaker 1 (01:03:14):
Look at this Final four.

Speaker 2 (01:03:15):
Jonathan Bama and Clemson were winning every other year. We're
deadening for the national game to have a West Coast
team like Oregon really competitive every year on upstart Big
Ten that never had a football for Again.

Speaker 1 (01:03:31):
We've culturally all four regions of this country are representing
because Miami is not a southern school. Miami really is
an East coast school, right. Oh Miss is the southern school,
Indiana's the Midwestern school, Oregon is the West coast school.
We really have the three major cultural regions all represented
in this Final four, which is always what's made college

(01:03:51):
football better than the other sports because of this ability
to have fan bases in diverse cultural.

Speaker 2 (01:04:00):
The only part of the country that didn't have a
real real foot was the Northeast because it's a pro
sports reagion never wanted to be right. Well, you could
argue that Miami surg has Northeast.

Speaker 1 (01:04:10):
Miami is the team of the Northeast, right, because that's
what I mean. Culturally, Miami is the combination of the
East Coast and the northeast. You know, it just happens
to be in the in the in in the south.

Speaker 2 (01:04:23):
It's kind of down basketball.

Speaker 1 (01:04:24):
Back in the day, you know the joke of Florida,
the farther south you go, the farther north.

Speaker 2 (01:04:29):
You go north. You got right, although nowadays the further
south you go in Florida, like the further south you
go into the Caribbean itself. So a lot of America.

Speaker 1 (01:04:39):
But what is the what is the vibe of an
LSU world? I know you're pretty you're pretty connected with.

Speaker 2 (01:04:45):
These days about all that are really really hopeful that
that Lane can do this. There's this mentality that we
have to have the biggest, the best, the shiniest the
first things, think both loves, get Saban to come back. Second,
and think was who's the next best current coach? And
it was Laying Kiffin.

Speaker 1 (01:05:03):
So why wasn't it Signetti. Why didn't they throw a
barrel of money? Because actually that's who I think Alabama's
going to go at.

Speaker 2 (01:05:09):
Athleen kiffens a bigger name. Look, I think summer all
at two Lane is now going to Florida was more
of an up and comer. I tell my Lsu brother
in this, I said, guys, Nick Saban was not Nick
Saban when he came to Baton Rouge. Right, it was
the Michigan state coach.

Speaker 1 (01:05:25):
No, but he had won there. But let me but
that in the way it works now you realize in
college because I look at how you know why Mario
Christobal got the job because he had a super pack
waiting to go, Meaning just like in politics, now, you're
a better candidate for a job if you also can
bring donors to the situation.

Speaker 2 (01:05:44):
And Mario had it.

Speaker 1 (01:05:46):
There was a donor community in South Florida that was
ready to cut checks if Mario has made the coach.
If Manny was Diaz was kept the coach a very
good coach, mind you, okay, but if he was, he
the same amount of donors weren't going to write as
big as checks. So the point is is that Mario
came in with Joey Maguire came in with checks. Right,

(01:06:08):
I think this is the new world. You've got to
bring Lane Kiffin brings money, gott to bring he said,
just like with you know, how are you a viable
senate candidate to the John Thuns and Chuck Schumers In
the world.

Speaker 2 (01:06:23):
I haven't any rich friends if you ask LSU fans
probably though what's over under on Lane's tenure basically for years,
you know. Anyway, More importantly, I'm happy for you. It's
gonna be means uh, it's cool to see there were
the return to greatness. It's we haven't returned yet. We're
knocking on the door in Miami. There's only one thing

(01:06:46):
that counts championships. We've never heard about old mister a
minute too, because city has obviously, I mean speaking of
a state film of insecurities. Oh gosh, in so many categories, right,
you know, they always have the best part aready in
the grove, but they do always have the best success
on the field, and here they have this dream season.

(01:07:07):
Their coach abandons them, breaks their heart and they still
are are are winning And how a you have to
win the national titles? I don't think this. I mean,
obviously Indiana has been a cool story nationally and this
has really griped Mississippi like I don't think any other
story this year because it just means so much to them,
right I.

Speaker 1 (01:07:27):
You know it's interesting is is that this is one
of those where there are there are good narratives for
whatever winner we get. The Indiana narrative is obvious, even
like Signetti said it the other day.

Speaker 2 (01:07:36):
Yeah, it's kind of.

Speaker 1 (01:07:37):
A sports movie, right, but one could argue Ole Miss
is a sports movie. The coach leaves and it's a
rally around. But even Oregon and Miami have their own narratives, right.
Oregon has been this organ's been knocking on the door,
but not really. They've been allowed into the into the
club with a with a chaperone, but they've never been
able to Actually they're not They don't have membership. They're

(01:07:59):
always invited, but they've never actually earned a membership into
the club. Even Miami has an old card into the
club right there. Now, they they're the lone blue blood
left and I've never thought of Miami as a blue blood,
but historically they have the resume of one stories.

Speaker 2 (01:08:19):
You can see the movie for a little Miss to
Archie Manning shows up atice, you know, and uh gets
the team fired up and they play by the way
they've played. Archie clips last night in the Superdome during
the Sugar Bowl. That's fun and it's incredible the hold
he still has on that program. He's a great guy,
and he still means so much to that program. The
crowd went crazy.

Speaker 1 (01:08:40):
The signs of the Mannings. By the way, does a
Manning win office before a Trump child wins office?

Speaker 2 (01:08:47):
What do you think? I think the meetings will stick
to commercials and ESPN. I think and we'll stay, we'll stay.

Speaker 1 (01:08:55):
One of them will get talked into running for something.
You know it Cooper. Who knows which one of them
it is?

Speaker 2 (01:09:00):
Cooper?

Speaker 1 (01:09:01):
Eli Peyton.

Speaker 2 (01:09:02):
I think I think the Manning crew remembers the Michael
Jordan Maxim and Michael Jordan Maxim was Republicans by sneakers
too well.

Speaker 1 (01:09:12):
They're very savvy, they are the very sad.

Speaker 2 (01:09:15):
They've got They've got a fairly a political identity, and
which is hard in this era. It's really hard in
this era. And I think they probably prefer to keep
that for a while. You know, uh k Mark you,
how do you?

Speaker 1 (01:09:30):
How do you feel as a uv A guy about
James Madison?

Speaker 2 (01:09:32):
Do you did you pull for him? Are we a little?
I think JMU was a great one double a school
that would have been it's good for Virginia. I look,
I I grew up to hearing for UVA basketball and
football growing up in Virginia and George Welsh was an
incredible coach, and those teams were fantastic in the nineties

(01:09:56):
and and and and the ads. It's just hard to
sustain the model and football year at a UVA a
competitive football program, but if they had a hell of
a year. Basketball is more interesting there because of the
portal era, uh and because of what Bennett put together.
And I think, you know, I know Ryan Otum out
to college with them. Ryan Otum has got I think,

(01:10:17):
great promise. It's gonna be fun to watch UVA basketball
this year.

Speaker 1 (01:10:20):
I'm excited for him. And I know there's a lot
of a lot of our UVA friends, Danielle Jones and Jones.
I mean, everybody's pull it for Ryan, right like there
is a there's a big community behind him.

Speaker 2 (01:10:32):
So that's fun. Yeah, And look, I think I think
he's taking that program in the right direction. And I
think they have great, great problems. It's just tough chucking.
All these coaches every year are putting together at least
four new kids on the court, uh, if not five,
and there's just not much continuity.

Speaker 1 (01:10:50):
Here's what it does put a premium on is I
do think there's an extra premium. And this is true
now in college football, in it with the coordinators and
in college basketball with the coaches. There's an extra premium
on actually coaching.

Speaker 2 (01:11:02):
Right.

Speaker 1 (01:11:02):
It used to be you had to be a recruiter
and all this stuff, but you've got to because the
differentiators in football now are the quarterback and the coach.
The different because talent is going to be evened out, right,
the market is going to is going to essentially even
it out. Ditto in basketball, so the distinctions are going
to be coaching schemes and chemistry and things like that

(01:11:25):
that should make it more exciting. I think college basketball
ten years from now is going to be deeper and better. Uh,
and it's going to be as high quality as college
basketball was when you and I were growing up in
the eighties.

Speaker 2 (01:11:38):
I really gotta be. Because of nil. Well, there's got
to be some rules. There's got to go will be
I know, you know there's a rebellion now because some
of these kids who are drafted and blading the DEALI
are now coming back to play in college. There's got
to be some regulation. But I agree it's got huge potential.

Speaker 1 (01:11:55):
Yeah, you know, who's a terrible spokesperson for lamenting about
the Nili Well, John, he's got to look just. He
may be right about his complaints, but you're like, dude,
you know you benefited in a system that allowed Kentucky
to benefit in ways that we still don't know the truth. Okay,

(01:12:19):
I guess you know. The point is you, John Calipari,
are upset that you don't get to create the velvet
rope that you benefited from for a long time. So,
while again his complaints are correct, he's a terrible spokesperson
to be complaining.

Speaker 2 (01:12:32):
All right, Chuck Todd, don't go to Fayville anytime soon.
All right.

Speaker 1 (01:12:36):
I love my friends in Fade Phil. I don't think
they're so you know, let's let's see if if I
had you know, I'm an old A ten guy, John Calipario,
is what if gw at those games? Those games were
at that fantas always, we own them. We are the

(01:12:56):
only A ten team that owned you mass in those
Keep the rabbit hole.

Speaker 2 (01:12:59):
Now we should end on Marcus Cambia you. Oh my god,
Happy New Year man, the late Happy New Year, my friend. Yes,
it's good to see you, Artile. Happy New Year.

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Interview Only w/ Jonathan Martin - Predictions For Trump & American Politics In 2026

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Interview Only w/ Jonathan Martin - Predictions For Trump & American Politics In 2026