March 28, 2024 • 19 mins
Buck Sexton breaks down the latest headlines with a fresh and honest perspective! He speaks truth to power, and cuts through the liberal nonsense coming from the mainstream media. Subscribe to never miss an episode of The Buck Sexton Show.
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Speaker 1 (00:11):
You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or
wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everybody, welcome to the
Buck Brief. This episode, Ryan Gardusky joins with the latest
on all things politics. He is the host of the
or rather well, he's a host of many things. He's
also the writer behind the National Populist newsletter on Substack,
(00:36):
which I highly recommend you go check out and subscribe
to you, mister Ryan, good to see you. Explain OURFK Junior.
What is going on? Explain this to me? Is he
going to take more votes from Biden or from Trump?
Is he getting on the ballots? What the heck's with
this VP thing? So just like make this make sense? Please?
Speaker 2 (00:56):
Yeah, you know, it's so funny. I had a conversation
with my buddy Megan McCain and she goes, this is
not going to be the vice president of my contract.
I can tell you that right now. The Yeah, So,
first of all, he's only on the ballad right now
in Utah. He says he has enough signatures and his
pack has enough signatures for other states like Nevada, Georgia,
(01:20):
New Hampshire, Oregon, in a couple few other states, but
there's there's a lot of legal challenges of whether or
not his pack can get signatures for him as a campaign.
They're really unsure about that. So we'll see where he
lands with his With this woman as his VP, she
has an estimated billion dollars from her divorce. They have
(01:42):
money to sit there and fight every legal challenge and
try to get on the ballot in every single state.
But as of right now, it's one state with a
possible I think seven others. The Cornell West, by the way,
is on four states, so Cornell West is on actually
more states right now than than RFK Jr. What is
the phenomena RFK Junior. He does have a hopeful message
(02:03):
his response to the State of the Union, which is
a nine minute video. If you've evern't seen it, it's
really good, Like it's really, really really good. It's not
completely accurate. He talks about how his uncle, when he
left the presidency and was assassinated, left the country in
peace and prosperity. He failed to mention the Vietnam War.
But that's fine, that's okay. Everyone's kind of seeing through
(02:23):
rose colored glasses. I think the VP pick, I think
it's interesting for two reasons. I think with the VP pick,
whatever her name is, I totally forgot it. Actually, pick
Shanahan is her last thing. Yeah, with Shanahan, it's definitely
looking more like a center left campaign than a center
right campaign, because that's what he was trying to do.
(02:45):
He was trying to kind of forge that middle ground.
And she's talking about you know, chronic diseases and a
lot of social justice stuff. She's not going to attract
a lot of right wingers to her cause. I think
the fact that she's like this Asian vegan woman from
California is definitely not the same thing as if you
(03:08):
would have picked that form of baseball player like that
would have been a much different vibe than than you know,
than than who he than Shanahan. I think she was
a pick primarily for her money, although they probably agree ideologically.
Her announcement speech was a little like a Ted talk
more than you know, just a speech, a presidential speech.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
Did did you see the the Native American like chanting
slash apology thing before? I have a rule. I have
a rule Ryan. Anyone who starts off a meeting with
a Native American apology for stealing your land thing. I
don't trust. I don't trust them. That that is my rule.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
Yeah, it's it's definitely giving left wing vibes. I don't
think that it's right when vibes at all. But I
will say, I mean, if Cornell West gets on more states,
and if RFK Junior gets on more states, if that's
the vibe, I don't see how. Yeah, there would be
some crunchy Republicans who like care a lot about vaccines
who might really like RFKG here and they care about
(04:10):
chronic diseases. It's a bit of a It's an important issue,
but it's a niche issue. And if they're doing Native
American tribal dances and reparations for slavery, there's only one
kind of voter that really attracts, and that's either black
voters who like the Kennedy brand or very very very
liberal white voters.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
Need I need you to just narrow this one down
for me, because you see Trump on truth social it's
now worth billions of dollars in public traded markets. Welcome
to America, everybody, this is the country we live in.
It's pretty amazing. But Trump tweeted, tweeted truth doubt Like
RFK is a left wing lunatic basically, but I'm glad
(04:53):
he's running because he'll take more Biden votes. Are let's
say that he gets on, meaning RFK Junior, a bunch
of different like twenty different states, and so he's on
you know, at least three or four important swing states, right,
let's say that that happens, or even just three or
four important swing states, forget about the overall number. Are
(05:14):
we very highly confident based on what we can see
in the data that he will take more Biden than
Trump votes or is that very much still TBD?
Speaker 2 (05:25):
I think it's I think it's I believe it's probably
more well in fact, that Biden is attacking him aggressively.
Biden's already released his first ad against RFK Junior. That
shows you the amount that they fear he resonates because
it is only one percent or two percent in some
of these states that will move the whole election. And
I think they know that, and RFK nationally, she'll probably
(05:49):
get somewhere between two and five percent of the vote
at the current rate he's that, I imagine, I mean, the
independent vote is always higher in the end of the
year and always gets lower as the year goes on,
So that I think is really problematic for his candidacy.
But if he's able to get on and really kind
of be an issues candidate that talks about things that
people care about, I think you'll either A see I
(06:11):
didn't start trying to capitalize on his issues. I think
that Cornell West is going to run completely on a
pro Hamas pro Palestine thing, and he's going to try
to get those Palestine voters for his campaign. I think
that RFK Junior really cares with healthcare a lot and
chronic disease, and it's very what he's saying is not wrong.
I mean, it is not wrong that we are in
a very sick and morbally obese country. I just think
(06:33):
that when you're talking about what pesticides are being used
and what, you know, what did she talk about she
says something.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
Like that, I just feel like RFK is running to
be somebody else's like EPA chief or something, you know
what I'm saying, like to me or FDA. I mean,
it doesn't seem like I know enough even about what
he thinks generally philosophically about government to know, like, what
is this guy all about? Right? He's good on the
COVID stuff, okay, right.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
And he's on immigration on the border. Yeah, Like he
does talk about positive on the border. We need a
border wall. He does say those things. But every time
I've heard him essentially tall, I mean he talks about
bringing back manufacturing, he does mention these things. His ad
was like, we used to make blue jeans in this
country and we don't make anything anymore. That's not an
(07:24):
uncompelling ad for people, But the vibe you give out
it matters a lot. I don't necessarily think he gives off.
He doesn't even remind me of his father and uncle.
I think that he gives off. I think he gives
off much more of a left wing coastal you know, elite.
I mean, for crying aloud. You know, he's the godfather
of Glenn Close's daughter and his ex wife was on
(07:46):
Curby your enthusiasm. This is not a man or his
current wife rather was on Curby ruthuism. It's not a
man who's really moving into Michigan and marching in Mississippi
for the poverty strikes with MLK like his dad did.
This is somebody who is very much giving the sense
that he is a very early person. But there's a
lot of disenfranchised voters on all sides who don't like
(08:08):
Trump and who don't like Biden, who will be probably
casting a valid for him out of protest, and maybe
he'll get a few issues voters, and that's what really matters,
if he can pick up like the whole Hamas is
a genocidal thing, or Biden is too old voters and
who knows.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
All right, we're going to come back in and you're
going to answer this question for me, Ryan, I was
asked this at a live event recently. Who is going
to win the House? Control of the House and why
We're going to get to that with you in a second.
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Patriot Defender dot com. All right, now, my question to
(09:28):
you was who's going in the House and why? What
do you think?
Speaker 2 (09:33):
So the House has never the House has only flipped
I think once where they're president is one the the
House is flipped in the other direction from the presidency
right now. Poles have Trump. I reve as for my subsecond,
the national copy subsect high quality polls holes that are
really well reviewed, well sourced, and well trusted. They come
(09:53):
from a variety people answer from text message and email
and live callers versus just internet poles. They are They
show Trump with about a one point five to two
to two and a half percent of a national advantage,
which is extremely large, largest he's ever had in his
entire all three candidacies online polls or lower lower value
(10:17):
polls that showed Biden actually edging Trump out for the
very first time in six or seven months. The national
election electorate in twenty twenty two was a two point
Republican majority, and Republicans got a bare minimum of the
popular vote. If it is, oh, I'm sorry, of the
House in twenty twenty two. If it is, if it's
(10:39):
looking like those hyperpency polls are right and Trump is
not gonna win but win the popular vote, Republicans are
still not going to win the House by that much.
You're talking about probably you know, ten to fifteen seat
majority at the very very most, just because a lot
of states have been jerrymandered six ways from Sunday.
Speaker 1 (10:56):
You know, New.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
Jersey, there's only three House seats that Republicans really can
win in New Jersey. There's only three maybe four in Illinois, California,
maybe one or two that Republicans currently don't hold. It
is the most borrow of margins. New Mexico is maybe one,
we like capped out of Florida, Republicans have no seats
that currently are not Republican that they can hope to
(11:19):
win in Florida, they have no seats in In Georgia
they have won. They have none. In North Carolina they
have well're going to pick up the three in North Carolina.
Besides that they're done. Virginia has one, West Virginia zero,
Ohio has two. Indiana maybe has won. There's not many though,
everywhere where it's going to matter. Where the where it's
going to matter if Republicans win is in the blue
(11:40):
state Republicans. There are I think fourteen Republicans right in
Africa because of George Sanders leaving. Maybe there's maybe it's
thirteen thirteen Republicans who are in Biden districts. If those
thirteen Republicans can hold on and they can pick up
the few Democrats who are in Trump districts, then they'll
hold on. But it's those thirteen Biden Republicans are what
(12:02):
really matter.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
But Joe, you think that there's a good shot Republicans
could could maintain that House, then it sounds like that vote.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
Yeah, if Trump win's the popular vote, if he gets
with him, if these hyper pency poles are correct, and
he continues going on, I know the media saying, you know,
inflation isn't great now, and you know, things are things
are all wonderful.
Speaker 1 (12:22):
He's Biden to get that.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
Amazing State of the Union speech, and he's on the
up and up, and he's showing he's got energy. I
don't know how well that media narrative is actually working.
Aside from these Internet poles, but I don't particularly see
it the state polling that high quality state poles that
have come out in the last three weeks have all
been very good for Trump. The Maris poles in Texas
(12:46):
and in it was North Carolina and Arizona, and the
Des Moines registered pole in Iowa all very very well,
well sourced, high quality polling, all were very very good
for Trump.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
I want to ask you in just a second to
tell us how they think they turned this against Trump,
or you know, switch the momentum around so that Biden
is at least starting to even out the field, if
not pull ahead. We'll get to that in a second.
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one zero nine for details, credit costs and terms. Ryan,
what's the plan? Is it just democracies and peril? Trump
is hitler, and uh, they're not gonna let you get
abortions all nine months of a pregnancy like it. It
just feels like that can't be.
Speaker 2 (14:20):
Enough to certain voters. It's enough for sure, but they're there.
They are emphasizing that Trump's second term is going to
be a blood bath. I mean we heard that, we
heard the term blood was a blood bath, right, That's
what he said there and said about the cars. Yes, yeah,
(14:42):
that was like, I mean, end of the world a
style conversation. And at the same time, you have here's
the problem. You have a niche group of Republicans nationwide
who are making the party seem very weird to average voters.
They're scaring the normies the Alabama IVF case for example.
All of these little things say to moderate voters who
(15:06):
are let's say, double haters. Double haters are really who
deicizes this election and people who hate both trum Biden
and Trump. Back last year, back when I was very pessimistic,
that's when the Wall Street Journal for Brizio Lepole said
that the double haters were voting for Biden by fifty points.
The most recent poll, I think it was the Maris
Texas poll said that they were voting now for Biden
(15:28):
by five points. Trump had closed the gap with people
who hate both Trump and Biden. And if you look
at the five thirty eight average. This is the first
time that Biden's approval r's are actually worse than Trump's.
If you, I think they they are a disasbrating the
divide and they get back those people by Satana saying
he really is a rec lose. He's really, you know,
(15:52):
he's really he's going to prison. He's got all these trials,
he you know, all this money. He can't be trusted.
Look at all of his former aids who hate him. Now,
why would you vote for this chaos? And I think
them selling camp is the message over Biden nomic. They're
dropped Biden. I don't know if you said the access
to that came out Accio's report having times Biden has
(16:13):
said Biden nominal so the last few months and it's
gone from like eighteen times in a month to zero.
He doesn't speak about that at all anymore. That messaging failed.
People personally don't feel good about the economy every time
they go to the grocery store. Inflation is still higher
than what people would like it to be, and you
have high interest rates at the home mortgages where people
(16:33):
feel like they can't buy their first home. Gaza has
definitely splintered a portion and a fraction of the Democratic Party.
The Gallup poll show that a majority of Democrats support
Gaza over Israel, and that's definitely splinting over some Arab
There's a lot of things going wrong for him. So
sometimes you are unified by the people as you hate
in common. Certainly, in twenty sixteen, Trump won a lot
(16:55):
of people who just could not bring themselves to allow
Hillary Cling to be president. That hatred for Hillary was
enough to unite people who didn't like Trump. Biden is
hoping that that happens again, that the hatred for Trump
is so strong, it's strong enough for strong enough to
elect to re elect him despite everything going.
Speaker 1 (17:12):
Wrong for him. Before we let you go, and everyone
should check out the National Populas newsletter. I'm a subscriber.
It's great, Ryan's Substack newsletter. Uh, you have a Springsteen
T shirt on? Is this because is this because there
was a special deal for two dollars at the thrift store?
Or is this because you are a Bruce Springsteen fan.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
Bruce Springsteen was like the soundtrack of my father's life.
And I've seen him concert probably seven times. He is
the greatest living.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
Life Before Oh my god, he is.
Speaker 2 (17:49):
Artist and he's the greatest living life performance.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
This is terrified. Ryan is so wise on so many pigs,
the most the most overrated musician or you know, music
act in modern history, like America anywhere Bruce Springsteen has
got one song, it's not even that good. Everybody didn't
even get one song. I can't. I can't even so
(18:12):
much for music.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
That's like people who want to hate Bob Dylan or
the Beatles because they're like, oh, you know their.
Speaker 1 (18:17):
Own Bob Dylan sucks, Bob Dylan sucks. Bob Dylan? Can wait?
Speaker 2 (18:23):
Can I tell you a good story?
Speaker 1 (18:24):
I was with him.
Speaker 2 (18:24):
I was out a dinner with his grandson and who
was like an arms dealer or something now, and I
was like, this is like the depressing decline of America.
But I had nothing to talk to him about. And
so I texted a friend and I was like, who,
what do I ask Bob Dylan's grandson? They go ask
him if his grandfather banged Evie Sedgwick. So I looked
over him and go, did your grandfather bang Edie Sedgwick?
And he goes, what? I go? Did he? I just
(18:46):
need to know? And he was like, no, he did it,
and I was like, okay, cool. That was the last
eightie Sedgwick, who's that? Yeah? Don't talk about culture, Buck,
don't talk about culture.
Speaker 1 (18:58):
Okay, all right, all right, I gotta stick down.
Speaker 2 (19:01):
It was Andy Warhol and Bob Dylan's muse and in
the sixties, and Andy Warhol got her addicted to heroin.
She died tragically, but she was an eight girl of
the late sixties. Look or ask somebody.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
I don't know, ask somebody, I'll figure something out. Subscribe
to Ryan's newsletter. Just don't listen to you. Don't listen
to his you know, kay won't know. Just listen to
listen to his politics, not his music taste. Don't go
get his spristy and T shirt Ryan or Dusk everybody, Ryan,
thank you, Welcome,
You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or
wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everybody, welcome to the
Buck Brief. This episode, Ryan Gardusky joins with the latest
on all things politics. He is the host of the
or rather well, he's a host of many things. He's
also the writer behind the National Populist newsletter on Substack,
(00:36):
which I highly recommend you go check out and subscribe
to you, mister Ryan, good to see you. Explain OURFK Junior.
What is going on? Explain this to me? Is he
going to take more votes from Biden or from Trump?
Is he getting on the ballots? What the heck's with
this VP thing? So just like make this make sense? Please?
Speaker 2 (00:56):
Yeah, you know, it's so funny. I had a conversation
with my buddy Megan McCain and she goes, this is
not going to be the vice president of my contract.
I can tell you that right now. The Yeah, So,
first of all, he's only on the ballad right now
in Utah. He says he has enough signatures and his
pack has enough signatures for other states like Nevada, Georgia,
(01:20):
New Hampshire, Oregon, in a couple few other states, but
there's there's a lot of legal challenges of whether or
not his pack can get signatures for him as a campaign.
They're really unsure about that. So we'll see where he
lands with his With this woman as his VP, she
has an estimated billion dollars from her divorce. They have
(01:42):
money to sit there and fight every legal challenge and
try to get on the ballot in every single state.
But as of right now, it's one state with a
possible I think seven others. The Cornell West, by the way,
is on four states, so Cornell West is on actually
more states right now than than RFK Jr. What is
the phenomena RFK Junior. He does have a hopeful message
(02:03):
his response to the State of the Union, which is
a nine minute video. If you've evern't seen it, it's
really good, Like it's really, really really good. It's not
completely accurate. He talks about how his uncle, when he
left the presidency and was assassinated, left the country in
peace and prosperity. He failed to mention the Vietnam War.
But that's fine, that's okay. Everyone's kind of seeing through
(02:23):
rose colored glasses. I think the VP pick, I think
it's interesting for two reasons. I think with the VP pick,
whatever her name is, I totally forgot it. Actually, pick
Shanahan is her last thing. Yeah, with Shanahan, it's definitely
looking more like a center left campaign than a center
right campaign, because that's what he was trying to do.
(02:45):
He was trying to kind of forge that middle ground.
And she's talking about you know, chronic diseases and a
lot of social justice stuff. She's not going to attract
a lot of right wingers to her cause. I think
the fact that she's like this Asian vegan woman from
California is definitely not the same thing as if you
(03:08):
would have picked that form of baseball player like that
would have been a much different vibe than than you know,
than than who he than Shanahan. I think she was
a pick primarily for her money, although they probably agree ideologically.
Her announcement speech was a little like a Ted talk
more than you know, just a speech, a presidential speech.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
Did did you see the the Native American like chanting
slash apology thing before? I have a rule. I have
a rule Ryan. Anyone who starts off a meeting with
a Native American apology for stealing your land thing. I
don't trust. I don't trust them. That that is my rule.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
Yeah, it's it's definitely giving left wing vibes. I don't
think that it's right when vibes at all. But I
will say, I mean, if Cornell West gets on more states,
and if RFK Junior gets on more states, if that's
the vibe, I don't see how. Yeah, there would be
some crunchy Republicans who like care a lot about vaccines
who might really like RFKG here and they care about
(04:10):
chronic diseases. It's a bit of a It's an important issue,
but it's a niche issue. And if they're doing Native
American tribal dances and reparations for slavery, there's only one
kind of voter that really attracts, and that's either black
voters who like the Kennedy brand or very very very
liberal white voters.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
Need I need you to just narrow this one down
for me, because you see Trump on truth social it's
now worth billions of dollars in public traded markets. Welcome
to America, everybody, this is the country we live in.
It's pretty amazing. But Trump tweeted, tweeted truth doubt Like
RFK is a left wing lunatic basically, but I'm glad
(04:53):
he's running because he'll take more Biden votes. Are let's
say that he gets on, meaning RFK Junior, a bunch
of different like twenty different states, and so he's on
you know, at least three or four important swing states, right,
let's say that that happens, or even just three or
four important swing states, forget about the overall number. Are
(05:14):
we very highly confident based on what we can see
in the data that he will take more Biden than
Trump votes or is that very much still TBD?
Speaker 2 (05:25):
I think it's I think it's I believe it's probably
more well in fact, that Biden is attacking him aggressively.
Biden's already released his first ad against RFK Junior. That
shows you the amount that they fear he resonates because
it is only one percent or two percent in some
of these states that will move the whole election. And
I think they know that, and RFK nationally, she'll probably
(05:49):
get somewhere between two and five percent of the vote
at the current rate he's that, I imagine, I mean, the
independent vote is always higher in the end of the
year and always gets lower as the year goes on,
So that I think is really problematic for his candidacy.
But if he's able to get on and really kind
of be an issues candidate that talks about things that
people care about, I think you'll either A see I
(06:11):
didn't start trying to capitalize on his issues. I think
that Cornell West is going to run completely on a
pro Hamas pro Palestine thing, and he's going to try
to get those Palestine voters for his campaign. I think
that RFK Junior really cares with healthcare a lot and
chronic disease, and it's very what he's saying is not wrong.
I mean, it is not wrong that we are in
a very sick and morbally obese country. I just think
(06:33):
that when you're talking about what pesticides are being used
and what, you know, what did she talk about she
says something.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
Like that, I just feel like RFK is running to
be somebody else's like EPA chief or something, you know
what I'm saying, like to me or FDA. I mean,
it doesn't seem like I know enough even about what
he thinks generally philosophically about government to know, like, what
is this guy all about? Right? He's good on the
COVID stuff, okay, right.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
And he's on immigration on the border. Yeah, Like he
does talk about positive on the border. We need a
border wall. He does say those things. But every time
I've heard him essentially tall, I mean he talks about
bringing back manufacturing, he does mention these things. His ad
was like, we used to make blue jeans in this
country and we don't make anything anymore. That's not an
(07:24):
uncompelling ad for people, But the vibe you give out
it matters a lot. I don't necessarily think he gives off.
He doesn't even remind me of his father and uncle.
I think that he gives off. I think he gives
off much more of a left wing coastal you know, elite.
I mean, for crying aloud. You know, he's the godfather
of Glenn Close's daughter and his ex wife was on
(07:46):
Curby your enthusiasm. This is not a man or his
current wife rather was on Curby ruthuism. It's not a
man who's really moving into Michigan and marching in Mississippi
for the poverty strikes with MLK like his dad did.
This is somebody who is very much giving the sense
that he is a very early person. But there's a
lot of disenfranchised voters on all sides who don't like
(08:08):
Trump and who don't like Biden, who will be probably
casting a valid for him out of protest, and maybe
he'll get a few issues voters, and that's what really matters,
if he can pick up like the whole Hamas is
a genocidal thing, or Biden is too old voters and
who knows.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
All right, we're going to come back in and you're
going to answer this question for me, Ryan, I was
asked this at a live event recently. Who is going
to win the House? Control of the House and why
We're going to get to that with you in a second.
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(09:28):
you was who's going in the House and why? What
do you think?
Speaker 2 (09:33):
So the House has never the House has only flipped
I think once where they're president is one the the
House is flipped in the other direction from the presidency
right now. Poles have Trump. I reve as for my subsecond,
the national copy subsect high quality polls holes that are
really well reviewed, well sourced, and well trusted. They come
(09:53):
from a variety people answer from text message and email
and live callers versus just internet poles. They are They
show Trump with about a one point five to two
to two and a half percent of a national advantage,
which is extremely large, largest he's ever had in his
entire all three candidacies online polls or lower lower value
(10:17):
polls that showed Biden actually edging Trump out for the
very first time in six or seven months. The national
election electorate in twenty twenty two was a two point
Republican majority, and Republicans got a bare minimum of the
popular vote. If it is, oh, I'm sorry, of the
House in twenty twenty two. If it is, if it's
(10:39):
looking like those hyperpency polls are right and Trump is
not gonna win but win the popular vote, Republicans are
still not going to win the House by that much.
You're talking about probably you know, ten to fifteen seat
majority at the very very most, just because a lot
of states have been jerrymandered six ways from Sunday.
Speaker 1 (10:56):
You know, New.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
Jersey, there's only three House seats that Republicans really can
win in New Jersey. There's only three maybe four in Illinois, California,
maybe one or two that Republicans currently don't hold. It
is the most borrow of margins. New Mexico is maybe one,
we like capped out of Florida, Republicans have no seats
that currently are not Republican that they can hope to
(11:19):
win in Florida, they have no seats in In Georgia
they have won. They have none. In North Carolina they
have well're going to pick up the three in North Carolina.
Besides that they're done. Virginia has one, West Virginia zero,
Ohio has two. Indiana maybe has won. There's not many though,
everywhere where it's going to matter. Where the where it's
going to matter if Republicans win is in the blue
(11:40):
state Republicans. There are I think fourteen Republicans right in
Africa because of George Sanders leaving. Maybe there's maybe it's
thirteen thirteen Republicans who are in Biden districts. If those
thirteen Republicans can hold on and they can pick up
the few Democrats who are in Trump districts, then they'll
hold on. But it's those thirteen Biden Republicans are what
(12:02):
really matter.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
But Joe, you think that there's a good shot Republicans
could could maintain that House, then it sounds like that vote.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
Yeah, if Trump win's the popular vote, if he gets
with him, if these hyper pency poles are correct, and
he continues going on, I know the media saying, you know,
inflation isn't great now, and you know, things are things
are all wonderful.
Speaker 1 (12:22):
He's Biden to get that.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
Amazing State of the Union speech, and he's on the
up and up, and he's showing he's got energy. I
don't know how well that media narrative is actually working.
Aside from these Internet poles, but I don't particularly see
it the state polling that high quality state poles that
have come out in the last three weeks have all
been very good for Trump. The Maris poles in Texas
(12:46):
and in it was North Carolina and Arizona, and the
Des Moines registered pole in Iowa all very very well,
well sourced, high quality polling, all were very very good
for Trump.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
I want to ask you in just a second to
tell us how they think they turned this against Trump,
or you know, switch the momentum around so that Biden
is at least starting to even out the field, if
not pull ahead. We'll get to that in a second.
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what's the plan? Is it just democracies and peril? Trump
is hitler, and uh, they're not gonna let you get
abortions all nine months of a pregnancy like it. It
just feels like that can't be.
Speaker 2 (14:20):
Enough to certain voters. It's enough for sure, but they're there.
They are emphasizing that Trump's second term is going to
be a blood bath. I mean we heard that, we
heard the term blood was a blood bath, right, That's
what he said there and said about the cars. Yes, yeah,
(14:42):
that was like, I mean, end of the world a
style conversation. And at the same time, you have here's
the problem. You have a niche group of Republicans nationwide
who are making the party seem very weird to average voters.
They're scaring the normies the Alabama IVF case for example.
All of these little things say to moderate voters who
(15:06):
are let's say, double haters. Double haters are really who
deicizes this election and people who hate both trum Biden
and Trump. Back last year, back when I was very pessimistic,
that's when the Wall Street Journal for Brizio Lepole said
that the double haters were voting for Biden by fifty points.
The most recent poll, I think it was the Maris
Texas poll said that they were voting now for Biden
(15:28):
by five points. Trump had closed the gap with people
who hate both Trump and Biden. And if you look
at the five thirty eight average. This is the first
time that Biden's approval r's are actually worse than Trump's.
If you, I think they they are a disasbrating the
divide and they get back those people by Satana saying
he really is a rec lose. He's really, you know,
(15:52):
he's really he's going to prison. He's got all these trials,
he you know, all this money. He can't be trusted.
Look at all of his former aids who hate him. Now,
why would you vote for this chaos? And I think
them selling camp is the message over Biden nomic. They're
dropped Biden. I don't know if you said the access
to that came out Accio's report having times Biden has
(16:13):
said Biden nominal so the last few months and it's
gone from like eighteen times in a month to zero.
He doesn't speak about that at all anymore. That messaging failed.
People personally don't feel good about the economy every time
they go to the grocery store. Inflation is still higher
than what people would like it to be, and you
have high interest rates at the home mortgages where people
(16:33):
feel like they can't buy their first home. Gaza has
definitely splintered a portion and a fraction of the Democratic Party.
The Gallup poll show that a majority of Democrats support
Gaza over Israel, and that's definitely splinting over some Arab
There's a lot of things going wrong for him. So
sometimes you are unified by the people as you hate
in common. Certainly, in twenty sixteen, Trump won a lot
(16:55):
of people who just could not bring themselves to allow
Hillary Cling to be president. That hatred for Hillary was
enough to unite people who didn't like Trump. Biden is
hoping that that happens again, that the hatred for Trump
is so strong, it's strong enough for strong enough to
elect to re elect him despite everything going.
Speaker 1 (17:12):
Wrong for him. Before we let you go, and everyone
should check out the National Populas newsletter. I'm a subscriber.
It's great, Ryan's Substack newsletter. Uh, you have a Springsteen
T shirt on? Is this because is this because there
was a special deal for two dollars at the thrift store?
Or is this because you are a Bruce Springsteen fan.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
Bruce Springsteen was like the soundtrack of my father's life.
And I've seen him concert probably seven times. He is
the greatest living.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
Life Before Oh my god, he is.
Speaker 2 (17:49):
Artist and he's the greatest living life performance.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
This is terrified. Ryan is so wise on so many pigs,
the most the most overrated musician or you know, music
act in modern history, like America anywhere Bruce Springsteen has
got one song, it's not even that good. Everybody didn't
even get one song. I can't. I can't even so
(18:12):
much for music.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
That's like people who want to hate Bob Dylan or
the Beatles because they're like, oh, you know their.
Speaker 1 (18:17):
Own Bob Dylan sucks, Bob Dylan sucks. Bob Dylan? Can wait?
Speaker 2 (18:23):
Can I tell you a good story?
Speaker 1 (18:24):
I was with him.
Speaker 2 (18:24):
I was out a dinner with his grandson and who
was like an arms dealer or something now, and I
was like, this is like the depressing decline of America.
But I had nothing to talk to him about. And
so I texted a friend and I was like, who,
what do I ask Bob Dylan's grandson? They go ask
him if his grandfather banged Evie Sedgwick. So I looked
over him and go, did your grandfather bang Edie Sedgwick?
And he goes, what? I go? Did he? I just
(18:46):
need to know? And he was like, no, he did it,
and I was like, okay, cool. That was the last
eightie Sedgwick, who's that? Yeah? Don't talk about culture, Buck,
don't talk about culture.
Speaker 1 (18:58):
Okay, all right, all right, I gotta stick down.
Speaker 2 (19:01):
It was Andy Warhol and Bob Dylan's muse and in
the sixties, and Andy Warhol got her addicted to heroin.
She died tragically, but she was an eight girl of
the late sixties. Look or ask somebody.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
I don't know, ask somebody, I'll figure something out. Subscribe
to Ryan's newsletter. Just don't listen to you. Don't listen
to his you know, kay won't know. Just listen to
listen to his politics, not his music taste. Don't go
get his spristy and T shirt Ryan or Dusk everybody, Ryan,
thank you, Welcome,
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Buck Sexton
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