March 5, 2024 • 53 mins
It's Super Tuesday! The black vote. Mass deportations. Ryan Girdusky breaks down the data.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to today's edition of the Clay Travis and Buck
Sexton Show podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
All right, so we're talking about the election underway today
with the primary Super Tuesday. Fifteen states plus American Samoa. Yes, Clay,
I was right about that. By the way, that's why
people are saying sixteen American Samoa and not a state
but gets to vote.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (00:22):
I've never been to American Samo. I wonder.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
I have friends who have been to Guam because of
the military base there, and they say that it's a
military base on an island, not super exciting.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
I wonder what American Samo is like. I have no idea.
Speaker 4 (00:37):
Maybe I'll go check it out someday, but I know
on live to Hawaii. Other than I would love to
go to the Hawaiian Islands. It's one of my places
that I still haven't been to.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
I've heard Hawaii is one of the most beautiful places
on earth. It is a truly blessed state in terms
of just natural beauty, resources and everything else. But unfortunately
it's very democrat, which is a shame. You and I
are funny that way, we both I was just talking
to somebody who was a senior person in the Trump
administration a few days ago, and she was we were
(01:06):
talking about it, and I said, you know, Clay and
I both we have a I think it's because I
started my career and you were in college there, so
we were in fun when you're twenty twenty years old,
twenty two years old, which is good. I think you
can have fun wherever you are, basically, but I have
fun memories of DC, even though it's a communist heel hole.
She was saying that she couldn't get out of DC
fast enough as an adult every single weekend that she
(01:28):
worked for the Trump administration because she loved it.
Speaker 4 (01:30):
I thought d C was fantastic. Now I know the
crimes out of control right now, it's setting all time highs.
It's probably, honestly, not much different than it was back
in the nineties. When the late nineties when I was there,
it was high.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
I think it was probably a lot worse than actually
by the number it maybe things got so good in
a lot of cities because you know, enforcing the law works.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
What a shock. Things got so.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
Good in a lot of cities that now I think
people have really you know, they've forgotten how bad it
was before it got good. But anyway, back to Super
Tuesday stuff. Oh yeah, whai is amazing You Laura and
the boys should definitely go. I've been a few times.
Absolutely fantastic stake. As for Biden, I mentioned this at
(02:12):
the very very top, a series of Biden aids. This
is from a New Yorker reporter or journalist, a series
of senior Biden aids. Quote told me that they doubt
Biden is trailing Trump as much as some.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
Polls have suggested.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
Quote.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
Polling is broken. Okay, let's before we die. Now.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
That's interesting because, as we've said, guys, the polling so
far in this election cycle has been pretty spot on
across the board.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
There's been no big surprises to speak of.
Speaker 2 (02:44):
CNN's data guy was on TV. This is pretty funny.
This is I think where the Democrats are right now.
They don't know what to do because the numbers don't
make sense to them because what they think should be
destrewing Trump, what they think should be pushing Trump under
the water, is elevating him out, is lifting him up
(03:08):
into the skies. This has cut six. This is CNN
freaking out.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
Player.
Speaker 5 (03:12):
I like to dig a little bit deeper into the
polling data, and this to me sort of says it all.
Has Trump committed serious federal crimes A majority, a majority
of likely voters say.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
Yes he did.
Speaker 5 (03:23):
Yeah he's still ahead.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
How is that possible?
Speaker 5 (03:26):
Because look at twenty twenty four Trump supporters. It turns
out eighteen percent of them say that Trump has actually
committed serious federal crimes, and yet they're still voting for it.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
Clay, I just think this is so significant because it
starts to go to maybe they really did just miscalculate
on this whole thing. Maybe the prosecutions are just backfiring
ways that they didn't anticipate because they have Trump arrangement syndrome.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
I think that's one hundred percent accurate. And I said
yesterday and to me, this is the essence of the race.
If you look at that New York Times poll has
Trump up four or five points, depending, which is the
biggest lead he's ever had in.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
New York Times poll.
Speaker 4 (04:05):
Sienna, and also we should mention in general, when your
argument is the polls are wrong, it always means you're losing.
Nobody ever says the polls are wrong when they're winning.
Just out there for everybody to think about. Sometimes the
polls were wrong in sixteen, they were in twenty not
so much right, and in twenty two they were actually
(04:27):
wrong in favor of Republicans. So and by the way,
wrong can mean one or two points off because our
races are so close.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
But Buck, the data actually reflects. And this is what
I would say to the Trump team.
Speaker 4 (04:40):
You've got to make Joe Biden the story because people's
opinions of Trump haven't actually changed. And I think that's
ultimately what that CNN analyst who's losing his mind over
is coming to grips with the favorability and unfavorability for Trump,
Buck is nearly identical in twenty and twenty four have collapsed.
(05:01):
That's will change. Also, I think that it makes it
very clear how much they have miscalculated this. If the
numbers really do show and continue to show, that Donald
Trump as a convicted felon.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
Put aside that you know, we think that it's garbage
and that these are it's lawfair, it's just the reality.
The technical reality would be that he would in this scenario,
that he would be a convicted felon, and that he
would still as a convicted felon. Trounce Joe Biden. There
is absolutely not a single prominent Democrat I think thought
(05:39):
that would be the case like that that you know, yeah,
they thought Republicans would still vote.
Speaker 3 (05:43):
They didn't think though, that.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
More people would vote for him if you were if
you were tried and convicted of all this, And that
seems to be the trend right now, which is quite
a shock to them.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
I think it's Biden collapsing. And this is why I
don't think the money's gonna They're going to spend billions
of dollars, billions of dollars on this election. Who doesn't
have their mind made up about Trump or Biden right now?
We've not it was eighteen ninety two when we had
a rematch. We effectively have two incumbent presidents. Everyone on
(06:16):
the planet, but certainly every one of the United States,
has an opinion of Donald Trump.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
We know that.
Speaker 4 (06:22):
And the opinion of Donald Trump is about eight or
nine points to the negative Biden. Now everybody has an
opinion on him and Biden. At the time of the
twenty twenty election, Buck had a I jotted this down.
Biden at the time of the twenty twenty election had
a plus ten net positive fifty two percent of people
(06:43):
liked Biden and forty two percent of people disliked him.
Compared to Trump, that was a plus twenty because Trump
was about ten points underwater. I'm talking about just whether
you like the guy or not. And so they ran
the Joe Biden's a good guy and and everybody's going
to be you know, he's this year kindly old grandfather.
(07:05):
And what happened is those numbers have taint. Biden's favorability
went from fifty two in the last election to thirty eight,
and his lack of favorability is unfavorable rating skyrocketed from
forty two to fifty nine. So Biden went from plus
ten people kind of like him to minus twenty one.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
Trump hasn't moved at all. That's the election, and that's what.
Speaker 4 (07:30):
I think is going to stay the same, because I
don't think people are going to change their opinion about
Biden or Trump, and I think Trump's gonna win eight
months out.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
That's what the numbers would reflect.
Speaker 4 (07:40):
I don't think they're gonna move much, and I think
Democrats are slowly starting.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
To recognize that.
Speaker 4 (07:45):
And anytime you say the polls are wrong, your guy's
probably not doing that well.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
Just just FYI, the.
Speaker 4 (07:52):
Polls are wrong. The polls are wrong. Have you even
heard of democrat make that argument before in the presidential election?
Speaker 2 (07:59):
No, it's this is the last This is the last
option you have is to say the numbers aren't really
the numbers, or we don't believe the numbers. That's because
you can't spin them because they're so clear in one direction.
And look, it's still ongoing. But the big plan, the
trojan horse that they were trying to roll out before
(08:19):
Maga front Gate here is so far a massive failure,
which is this whole legal thing. Yes, and I'll be honest,
I didn't think it would be such a failure. I
thought that, you know, because there was some early polling
and I figured, well, maybe they're they're gonna be able
to fool people. But you know, maybe people have a
little more memory of Russia collusion and the farce that
(08:39):
that was. Maybe maybe there's the exhaustion with all the
screaming about Trump as Hitler and destroying the Republic has
finally reached a point where people have just had enough.
Speaker 3 (08:49):
I don't know, we'll see.
Speaker 4 (08:51):
I think they likely have. And you know what, I
haven't had enough of yet. Buck March madness.
Speaker 3 (08:56):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (08:57):
I'm gonna watch college basketball.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
Tonight while I'm gonna be I don't know how many
of you are going to be like me, flipping back
and forth between the Alabama Florida basketball game, also to
see what the Super Tuesday results are going to be,
just to confirm. I think basically, as soon as the
polls are shutting down in each state, they're going to
immediately go ahead and call it, and then we'll see
how much of a margin we're going to run up,
meaning Donald Trump. But I am super excited to watch
(09:21):
the Florida game tonight. Go ahead to head with Alabama.
It's a great SEC basketball game. It's probably the best
Top twenty five matchup for the evening. Let me make
sure about that as we all get geared up for it.
Purdue Illinois also going to be a really good game
that is going on. Purdue is going to have a
tough time on the road at Illinois. But Alabama Florida game,
(09:42):
I'm going to be watching the most. Both those games
kick tipping off at seven o'clock Eastern, and I want
to make sure that you can have fun with me
watching those games. If you sign up for price picks
right now. You can get hooked up one hundred dollars.
I don't think we do any ads where we say, hey,
we'll give you one hundred dollars. If you put one
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(10:03):
have to do is go to price picks dot com.
Use my name Clay as the code boom. You can
have some fun. I'm going to give you picks tomorrow
that I am confident in, that I am hopeful that
we're going to get back on the winning track with.
But in the meantime, why don't you go ahead and
put one hundred dollars in your pocket. Prize picks dot com.
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(10:23):
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use that code Clay.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
Do it.
Speaker 4 (10:39):
Let's have some fun tonight watching Floridabama, watching Purdue Illinois,
and getting ready for March Madness A boil boy, I
love it and we're almost there. Price picks dot com,
Code Clay.
Speaker 1 (10:50):
Subscribe to CNB twenty four to seven and never miss
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Speaker 4 (10:54):
Buck while getting behind the scene access to special content
for members on label Welcome in our number two Clay
Travis Buck Sexton show.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
All right, let's hit a couple of stories here. Buck one.
Speaker 4 (11:08):
Michelle Obama, who I still believe is going to be
the nominee in the twenty twenty four race, has officially
issued a statement saying she has no interest in being
the nominee and that she supports Joe Biden and Kamala Harris,
which Buck I will say is exactly what she would
(11:28):
say if she were going to.
Speaker 6 (11:33):
No.
Speaker 4 (11:33):
I'm just saying, if it goes to the convention, there's
going to be a ton of people out there begging
for the nomination. Gavin Newsom will take you into fancy
French laundering dinners. Gretchen Whitmer will take you out on
her husband's boat that he took out when everybody else
(11:54):
wasn't allowed to have their boat out.
Speaker 1 (11:56):
But nobody remembers that. Evidently, in during the covid Era, JB.
Speaker 4 (12:01):
Pritzker, billionaire Air of the I believe Marriott, Hotel Fortune,
I think that or Hilton or something, Hotel Air. He'll
buy you whatever he needs to buy you. Shapiro the
governor up in Pennsylvania. He'll throw his name in the mix.
And out there sitting on the edge watching all of
(12:21):
this playout, Michelle Obama, the savior of the Democrat Party
come August.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
So you think it is disinformation when Michelle Obama's team
puts out there that she has absolutely no interest in running,
that she fully backs Joe Biden.
Speaker 3 (12:38):
And this is not happening.
Speaker 4 (12:39):
This is what everybody does when they actually want the job.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
I'm just telling you right now, I'm gonna make Clay.
He's gonna cut up my steak. You know, he's gonna
cut up my steak in front of me, and he's
gonna have to tie a little bib, like you know
when you go to red Lobster or something, a little
bib around my neck and maybe even feed me the
steak and say that you know the choo choo train
is coming or whatever. Because this is you are dead
ending this one, my friend. You are not budgeting I'm
(13:08):
not getting off.
Speaker 4 (13:09):
I'm not getting off the Michelle Obama train until Joe
Biden is officially accepting the Democrat nomination. That's what I
will say. Okay, there is nobody else it has to be,
and whatever day that is, Ali can look up the date.
I will come on the show the day after Joe
Biden officially accepts the nomination, if it happens in August,
(13:30):
and I will say, Buck Sexton, you have won yourself
a stake.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
You can pick time and place.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
And also I think that day I get to just
play we are the champions. Every time I bring us
back from a break, that'll be my rejoin music.
Speaker 4 (13:44):
So so we'll see, we'll see what ends up happening there.
I don't think the denial surprises me at all. In fact,
the denial just actually means that the Michelle Obama chatter
had become so loud that somebody said, hey, can you
please put out a statement to make them know that
we're not planning on this again. It's going to be
(14:05):
the draft Michelle movement, all right. I saw this though yesterday. Buck,
I told you my new prediction, which I reserve the
right to alter, is that if I were betting right now,
I think Tim Scott is going to be the selection
for Donald Trump for VP. And I said that because
I believe Trump believes, and I think there may be
(14:25):
some evidence of it, that black men may support Trump
at a level that black men have never supported a
Republican before. And I was out last night buck at
an event with our guys Lit, who do the opening
song that we play every hour, charity event, and there
were other people there at charity event. I won't say
(14:46):
who I was talking to, but he's involved in athletics,
and he was saying that inside of college locker rooms
right now, there is on athletic teams young black men
who are far more favorably disposed to Donald Trump right
now than they are Joe Biden, that that is a
(15:08):
conversation happening in locker rooms college athletes sitting around as
they're you know, talking about politics sometimes probably not super
plugged in right they're playing basketball, they're playing football, they're
playing baseball, whatever it is. But that the young black
voter mail is up for grabs in a way that
may not have happened before. And I think Trump believes
(15:31):
not only that, but also black men in general, I
think Trump thinks he can get twenty five percent of
the black mail vote. I think if Donald Trump are
on with us right now, he would say I can
get a quarter of the black mail voter.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
But I Trump would say that he could get more
than that. I don't think Donald Trump will be able
to get the when you owe the of the black
mail vote.
Speaker 4 (15:51):
He's not gonna get Black women. They are committed, they
are committed to Joe Biden. But more than any group.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
I think he might get an extra you know, I
don't know, two or three points total among the black
vote compared to the last time around.
Speaker 3 (16:04):
You know, you're you're talking about trying to move the.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
Needle, so to speak, with the most you know, solidified
loyal party line voting block of of any of any
group that you could think, right, I mean, the Black
community votes more in lockstep with the Democrat Party than
any other major demographic that you could look at.
Speaker 3 (16:27):
Not even anybody else close. It's not even close. It's
always over.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
I mean, it's basically ninety percent plus every time, ninety
percent plus every time in national elections. So I don't
know if Donald Trump can really move the needle with
them that much. I think that the smarter strategy for
Trump is probably to just look at how did he
win in twenty sixteen, right, And how he won in
twenty sixteen was bringing over white working class voters from
(16:54):
key states, and that's what And some of them didn't
show up twenty twenty, some of them weren't as motivated
in twenty twenty.
Speaker 3 (17:04):
And you know, there's a whole bunch of stuff we
could talk about, but.
Speaker 2 (17:08):
That's I think the likelier pathway to victory for him
is to because it's just so much bigger in terms
of the raw numbers, it's just a much bigger group demographically, right.
I mean, put as on whether you think it's even
possible to move much of the black vote toward Donald Trump,
which would be great, And I'm sure you know, like
I said, Trump is going to say probably fifty percent,
maybe eighty percent. I mean, he's going to say that
(17:28):
he can do much better.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
But I think that.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
It's likely or that you'll see the deciding factor in
the swing states will be white working class voters because
Trump is the demographic that he has really lost in
recent years. It's basically anybody went to college that's college
educated across the board is a big problem for Trump,
which I think actually says a lot about what a
(17:51):
college education does to people ideologically.
Speaker 3 (17:55):
But that's a separate issue.
Speaker 4 (17:56):
We're going to talk to Ryan Gardski about some of
this data and also super Tuesday at Bout Out of
the Out.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
Can I agree about some of your supposition? I want to, like,
I haven't. I haven't previewed this with him. I want
to know what he thinks about getting more than black ones.
Let's ask him. Yeah, yeah, we'll ask him about that directly.
Speaker 4 (18:08):
But what I was going to tie in with this
is I want to play this clip from Charles Barkley
that was on CNN with Gail King. I think is
her name right? That he does his show weekly with
h They have a they have a show, and I'm
actually the reason why I want to play it is
I think there's now some trepidation that the black male
(18:31):
vote maybe trending towards Trump, because you're hearing a lot
of people suddenly it feels like, try to police what
black male voters.
Speaker 1 (18:40):
Are able to do. Right.
Speaker 4 (18:41):
This is what you see from Democrats a lot. If
you are black and you're willing to vote for Trump,
female or male, but in particular I see it with
male influencers, so to speak. They try to say, hey,
you're not really able to do that. And here's Charles
Barkley saying that on CNN. I want you to all listen.
(19:01):
I like Charles Barkley, I know him, interviewed him a
bunch of times, been out to dinner with him. I
don't agree with everything he says, and I certainly disagree
with this, but I want you to listen.
Speaker 7 (19:12):
If I see a black person walking around with Trump munks,
I'm gonna punch him in the face.
Speaker 8 (19:16):
Charles, I know, Gil, Gil, Gil.
Speaker 6 (19:19):
You really can't say that because A, you don't mean that.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
Oh, I mean that sincerely, I'm gonna.
Speaker 8 (19:23):
Just tell you something and then you will be arrested
for assault and.
Speaker 6 (19:26):
Then what I'm gonna bail myself out and go celebrate.
Speaker 3 (19:30):
If I still encourage him.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
Don't encourage him, Okay, but continue.
Speaker 3 (19:35):
First off, I was at that at that conference, I'd
have got up and walked out.
Speaker 7 (19:38):
That was an insult to all black people because he
basically just saying to compare black history where we've been discriminated.
Speaker 3 (19:45):
Against his plights.
Speaker 7 (19:46):
Yes, well, first of all, he's a billionaire and they're
prosecuting him for stuff he did wrong.
Speaker 4 (19:52):
Okay, So again part of the challenge on a lot
of these things is Charles Barkley is very funny. So
when and she says you don't mean that, and he says,
I do mean it, it's also still played for laughs.
But even if you were playing that for laughs, if
a white political prognosticator said, if I see somebody who's
(20:14):
voting for somebody I don't like, wearing a shirt I
don't like, I'm gonna walk up and hit them, it
would be evidence of white supremacy. It would be taken
completely seriously, even if it's an attempt at a joke.
But what to me this represents buck is there is
an inroads that Trump has tried to make in Black America,
black men in particular, and I think there is some registration. Now,
(20:34):
I don't think Trump's argument of I'm getting arrested and
I'm getting prosecuted and so that makes black people like
me more is very likely true. But the fact that
he's attempting this outreach I think has a lot of
people uncomfortable, because if he got twenty five percent of
the black vote, the Democrat coalition doesn't work. I'm talking
(20:57):
about twenty five percent of the black mail vote. It
just doesn't doesn't add up. Or even if he just
gets people not to show up.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
He's not going to get anywhere near twenty five percent
of the Black vote. It's just not the clay.
Speaker 4 (21:09):
That would be a political earthquake black male vote. When
I say twenty five percent, I mean one in four
Black men could vote for Trump.
Speaker 2 (21:18):
I think what would the aggregate Let's look at the
aggregate number, though, So what are you thinking? I think
last time it would be like nine of the total
Black vote.
Speaker 1 (21:27):
I think it was nine percent something like that.
Speaker 4 (21:29):
Yeah, and that is ninety nine percent female, right, so
ninety nine percent of Black women are voting for Yes.
Of black women are Black Democrats. So much of that
number already is coming from black men. I think the
number is around twelve or thirteen percent of Black men
supposedly voted for Trump in twenty twenty. I think that's
(21:51):
the number. So you're talking about a doubling. I think
I think he could double black male support in twenty
twenty four. I think that's what he believes, and I
think if he puts Tim Scott on the ticket. That's
what he's gambling that he's going to be able to do.
Speaker 2 (22:09):
I feel like every election cycle Republicans go down this
pathway and they say, you know, maybe this time because yeah,
we would love we would love a lot more than
twenty five percent of the blackmail vote or the black
vote in general to be Republican.
Speaker 1 (22:23):
But we go through this.
Speaker 2 (22:25):
And it's always you know, people raise a bunch of
money and they say, oh, we're going to change the
voting habits of the black community this time around. Never works.
Just this is cynical meat, just telling you never works.
I can try, it doesn't work, I know, you know
what I mean. And that to me is the other
thing we're forgetting on the ticket. That's the way that
(22:46):
doesn't But that doesn't work what he's thinking, I know.
But that's what he's thinking if he does it. To me,
if he's thinking that and he does it, I think
he's not paying attention to what's happened in American politics
for like the last forty years.
Speaker 3 (22:56):
Anytime that you.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
Have a black person, by the way, shock you. No,
that doesn't mean yeah, that he won't do it. I'm
just saying he actually might just you know, but black
Republicans do not get the allegiance of black voters. That's
not how you know, that's not how it works. That's
just I mean, look at it. Look at all these
(23:19):
different times you've had, you know, look at the kind
of numbers that when you know, when Herman Kane rest
in peace, when he was running in GOP and you know,
you see when I say you see a little bit
of movement, there's maybe a little more of a sense
of okay, like, but the the black vote is just
is incredibly consistent and solidified for Democrats and has been
for so I.
Speaker 1 (23:40):
Get it right.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
It's like, if you can break that coalition, you've broken
the Democrat Party effectively. But this is a little bit
like when Democrats say they want to win Texas. It's like, okay,
but you know, you're you're going, you know, you ever
play Capture the Flag back in the day, right, You're
you're just making a sprint for the flag. You're not
doing any tactics. You're going right for it to take
the fight to the other side.
Speaker 3 (24:00):
So yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 1 (24:03):
We'll see.
Speaker 4 (24:03):
I'm actually curious what Kurdusky will say at the bottom
of the hour but that is to me again, if
he's going to pick as his vice presidential candidate Tim Scott,
that is Trump saying, I believe we're going to make
an inroads with black mail voters again, black and mail.
Speaker 1 (24:18):
I don't think it's gonna be.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
Hard to do that.
Speaker 2 (24:20):
Before and there was the First Step Act and the
stuff that Jared Kushner was involved in, and that backfired.
Speaker 3 (24:26):
Actually that was not good because.
Speaker 1 (24:28):
Then that was a man.
Speaker 2 (24:29):
Black Lives Matter was rampaging through American cities.
Speaker 3 (24:34):
It was it didn't.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
We just do a whole jail Break Act thing and
let all these people out of prison who were supposed
to serve much longer sentences, remember that, So you know.
Speaker 4 (24:42):
Yeah, and by the way, we should put We talked
a lot about October surprises. BLM has been very quiet.
Every four years, BLM finds somebody to rally around. They
did with George Floyd in twenty twenty. I think that
destroyed any possibility of Trump had much inroads with the
black vote. Will there be another BLM uprising in the
(25:06):
next few months. It's about time for that to start
to get percolating. If they're going to try to turn
that dial up again, very well.
Speaker 3 (25:15):
Could be.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
We'll take some calls eight hundred two two two eight two.
You know, as Kamala Harris shouts out about the right
to abortion, do you think she takes people into consideration
that might be outside her circle of friends?
Speaker 3 (25:26):
Probably not.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
There are so many people in this country who believe
in the value of life, people who think that life
starts a conception. It's a deeply personal issue, no question,
Thankfully though, there's an organization like Preborn that acts with
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The supply chain of Smarts, Sanity and Truth Uninterrupted.
Speaker 1 (26:35):
Clay Travis and Buck Sexton.
Speaker 2 (26:37):
Welcome back into Clay and Buck. I want to talk
a little bit about immigration here for a second. This
up on Daily Mail, Elon Musk bashed President Biden's administration
after they admitted to flying three hundred and twenty thousand
unvetted migrants in the US. As Musk said, it could
mean something far worse than eleven that was on X.
(27:02):
Musk took to his platform on Tuesday said the president's
administration is importing voters and creating a national security threat.
Elon also tweeted out Clay America will fail if it
tries to absorb the world. That is why I am
banging the drums so much about this issue. I think
(27:23):
it is the most important issue in the country faces
right now. Donald Trump out there, this is cut eighteen.
He's out there telling everybody that there are going to
be and as we all, I think now the left,
the Democrats are realizing this is something they better take
seriously because Trump is way ahead. There are going to
be mass deportations of illegal aliens in this country.
Speaker 3 (27:46):
Play eighteen.
Speaker 8 (27:46):
Will you order mass deportations if you win the White House?
Speaker 6 (27:50):
Oh?
Speaker 8 (27:50):
Day one, we have no choice, said, We'll start with
the bad ones, and you know who knows who they are?
Speaker 6 (27:55):
Local police. Local police have.
Speaker 8 (27:57):
To be given back their authority, and they have to
begin giving back their respect and immunity. We're going to
give them immunity, and they don't them by the first name,
the middle name in the last name, and they will
take them out, and they will we will get them out. Look,
this is not sustainable by any country, even if they
weren't as bad as they are. This is not sustainable
by any country.
Speaker 2 (28:19):
That's true. I think that's an important point as well
with all this play. No other country would do this.
No other country on the planet would allow what is
happening to us to happen to them.
Speaker 4 (28:28):
And remember, many of these people are going to have kids,
and those kids are going to become citizens. And that's
why I say there are two primary incentive structors. This
is where the conversation needs to go. Everything occurs in
life to a large extent based on the incentives that
you create. People respond to incentives. One is, thankfully, we
(28:51):
are a capitalist society, and our economy produces a massive
amount of jobs.
Speaker 1 (28:59):
And the reason why a lot.
Speaker 4 (29:00):
Of people are coming to the United States is because
those jobs pay far more than the jobs if they
exist in their home countries. So the economic incentive is
almost impossible to erase. Now you could say, well, we
need to start finding companies that hire illegals, and there
need to be substantial consequences for that. All of those
things can be true, but the incentive structure of jobs
(29:23):
is a major driver.
Speaker 1 (29:24):
The other one is we've got to end birthright citizenship
once and for all.
Speaker 4 (29:29):
So building a wall to help to keep people from
being able to get in, having effective border security that matters.
But also we have to do away with birthright citizenship
because I think a lot fewer people would come here
if they weren't thinking, oh, I'm going to go there
and I'm gonna have a kid. And once you have
a kid that's an American citizen, your chances of ever
(29:50):
getting deported out of America collapse.
Speaker 1 (29:55):
So the two incentive structures.
Speaker 4 (29:57):
You have to address them if we want to truly
address this issue. And this is why I get disappointed
sometimes in the way that these conversations occur. For instance,
if you believe, as I think you and I both do,
and everybody out there, no matter where you are in
the country, that we have too much violent crime in America,
then you have to have a real conversation about who
commits violent crime. And the reality is over half of
(30:19):
all murders are committed by young black men. They represent
about three or four percent of the population. They commit
over half of all murders. If you are going to
stop and by the way, most of their victims are
young black men as well. If you are going to
stop violent crime in America, you would have to police
more aggressively young black men. That's the only way to
(30:41):
stop it. So when you have all these people out
there saying, oh, the criminal justice system is racist, look
at well, we arrest people who commit violent crime and
tend to put people in prison who commit violent crime.
And even the argument of well, look at all the
non violent offenders. I think this is really important too.
They're non violent offenders because they pled guilty to a
non violviolent crime to avoid getting on trial for a
(31:02):
violent crime. Nobody has the If we really want to
solve things, you have to look at the facts and
the data, and you have to analyze them. You have
to have rational adult conversations. We don't have a lot
of rational adult conversations in this country, and so that
is one of the things that super frustrates me about
our discourse. If you're going to address the border or
violent crime or any of these issues, you have to
(31:24):
actually analyze them and talk about them like adults, as
opposed to artificially circumscribing what's allowed to be said. And
you pointed out, I think it's important no other country
does this. There's no other country in the world that
has in the last four three and a half years
allowed eight million illegals to come into its country.
Speaker 1 (31:46):
No one else in the world it would allow this
to happen.
Speaker 2 (31:50):
Everyone knows that it's a fraud, and they're saying this
now out loud. I've been saying it's a fraud for
the whole time, but now even Democrats are admitting it.
And so instead of saying we're not going to allow
people to perpetuate the fraud, that what the Democrats are
trying to do is just move the blame around and
act like somehow this was just a bipartisan thing that happened,
(32:12):
and it's not necessarily the result of decisions that were
made by people like or by Joe Biden and those
around him.
Speaker 3 (32:21):
I thought this was interesting too.
Speaker 2 (32:22):
John Fetterman, who we have been I think rightly on
some issues praising on this show because I think he
is a sound of sound mind on the issue of
Israel and Hamas and on immigration. You know, he's in Pennsylvania.
He's not up in this cycle, but he wants the
(32:46):
Pennsylvany I mean, he wants the Democrat running against who's
we just had him.
Speaker 8 (32:50):
On the.
Speaker 2 (32:52):
Who's running for Pennsylvania Republic Dave McCormick, thank you. He
doesn't want McCormick to win. So they've got to seem
re on the issue of immigration. And here is Fetterman
saying that he's willing to do a stronger immigration deal
than what was already even talked about in the Senate
play seventeen at.
Speaker 7 (33:12):
Least I as a Democrat, you know, and am willing
and eager to go stronger than the border deal that
was here it might be actually appropriate given the circumstance
here at the border.
Speaker 2 (33:25):
Okay, so Fetterman keeps saying things that are sensible. I
don't know what to say other than we're just going
to keep calling it out because he's saying we need
something even stronger. Because here's what's interesting. There was this
crossover between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders supporters. Yeah, everyone
remembers us for a little while on the issue of
immigration and workers. Because you even had Bernie Sanders going
(33:49):
out and saying, sometimes, forget about all the other comedy
stuff he says on this one issue, he understands. He
recognizes that if you have open borders, you are going
to hurt working class people or low income hourly wage
workers are going to bear the economic consequences of this
far more than anybody else. Trump was saying it, and
(34:11):
he was also speaking about it more in terms of
just national sovereignty and rule of law, but Bernie Sanders
was saying it as it pertains to workers. I think
someone like John Fetterman, who's really a you know, Bernie Sanders,
comes out of the Bernie Sanders mold, recognizes you're dumping
eight million people on the country. Who have low skills,
almost no ability to speak English, almost no educational background.
(34:33):
I mean, you know, by the numbers, based on what
we can see, Guess what that's going to mean. People
who rely on the state for services and people who
are trying to climb the economic ladder are going to
be pulled down.
Speaker 3 (34:48):
This is what happens. It's blind demand, no doubt.
Speaker 4 (34:52):
And I'm glad you brought that up because there was
a lot of people in New Hampshire and in Iowa.
Speaker 1 (34:57):
I mean, we'll forget now in twenty.
Speaker 4 (34:59):
Sixteen that we're deciding, hey, should I vote for Bernie
Sanders or Donald Trump in the primary, because there was
a massive desire for a disruptor, and you know before
they rigged the DNC, which I'm glad we finally got
those emails, But the DNC rigged the election in twenty
sixteen for Hillary Clinton. They did everything they could to
(35:20):
ensure that she was the nominee. But yes, I meant
there's a lot of people listening to us right now
in Iowa and New Hampshire, maybe even in other states too,
who weren't full on the Trump train yet in twenty
sixteen and may have been uncertain about even what primary
they were going to vote in. And this, to me
is another part of Biden's collapse. I hit you with
(35:41):
those Iowa numbers, Buck, but ten percent of Joe Biden
voters now are saying they're going to flip to Trump.
I never thought that that high of a percentage would flip.
That's according to the New York Times of Senapol that
they just came out with a lot of people bought
the Grandpa Joe argument and now they found out, you
know what, I was sold to Bill of goods.
Speaker 1 (36:01):
And it's not just that Biden has collapsed.
Speaker 4 (36:04):
It's that some people, maybe a lot of you listening
to us right now even were willing to buy into
Biden in twenty twenty and have seen the clarity and
the wrongness of their ways, and in twenty twenty four
are going to go back to Trump. I think that's
a big part of this story. Biden's collapse isn't just
hurting him with the turnout. There's actually a lot of
(36:25):
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Listen to the program live, catch up on any part
of the show you might have missed.
Speaker 4 (37:43):
You your CNB twenty four to seven subscription to get
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Speaker 1 (37:48):
Fine the Clay and Buck app in your app store
and make it part of your day.
Speaker 4 (37:52):
Welcome back in Clay, Travis buck Sexton Show. Appreciate all
of you hanging out with us. We go down to
our buddy, Ryan Gerdusky, data guru of the voting universe.
He is down in Texas where they are having their
primary today. A lot of big different battles that are
taking place in the state of Texas in the Republican primary. Again,
(38:13):
encourage all of you to go vote. My wife Laura
is working. It's gotta be careful. The phrase working the
poll definitely sounds like a stripper and she is working
at a polling site. I don't think you're working the
poll there, Ryan, hopefully not anyway.
Speaker 3 (38:27):
Uh yeah, yeah, that wouldn't be.
Speaker 4 (38:30):
I don't think you'd get a lot of dollar bills.
I don't think you either, Buck, nor I would either.
But so Buck and I were just talking VP right
as to what Trump is going to do. And I
said yesterday on the show that I thought, if I
were betting right now, I would take Tim Scott that
(38:50):
Trump believes that he can make a run at blackmail
voters in a way that has not occurred before. Buck says,
not gonna happen. That there's there's Trump's belief, and there's
what's going to happen. Trump believe you sure, I'm saying
it's not going to happen.
Speaker 2 (39:05):
It never happens. But Republicans are obsessed with talking about this. Ryan,
what do you say?
Speaker 4 (39:09):
We both agree black women are not going to vote
for Trump and they're not moving much. But are black men,
in your opinion, based on the data persuadable? Do you
buy into the idea that Trump seems to have bought
into that he can get blackmail voting support twenty five percent?
I think he could get twenty five percent.
Speaker 6 (39:30):
Okay, First of all, if you're in northern Texas, please
go for Brandon Gill on campaigny four.
Speaker 2 (39:34):
Secondly, wait, that's Brandon Gill, that's my friend Danielle de Suz's.
Speaker 6 (39:38):
Husband, Yes, Brandon gal Texas twenty six northern the Denton
County area. As far as the blackmail vote, so this
is what's happening with black voters. Older Black voters are
like ninety nine to one Democrat voters, so that is
not changing. But as that population begins aging and dying out,
younger Black voters were less connected to the Black Church especially,
(40:00):
are more independent. It went to the more Republican, but
the more independent. So you're seeing this gradual change. It's
not I mean, part of it is for Trump, but
not all of it's for Trump. Part of it is
just the changing demographics of that vote, especially for black
malt voters. Can you get twenty five percent of the
black mail vote? I don't know. I think that's a
little ambitious. You know, maybe he can. I think the
(40:20):
last time I got twelve or fifteen. Maybe he can
break twenty. That's probably at best because part of it
is just the demographic changes of younger Black people. Like
younger people period just don't vote that much. As far
as Vice President goes, I have on good authority, it's
not going to be Tim Scott, especially after Tim Scott
said that Mike Pence did everything right on January sixth.
(40:41):
I think he's on some Sunday show and I was
told on good authority the last few people really being
considered right now are Rubio, jd Vance, and Katie Britt.
Speaker 2 (40:53):
I've been saying jd Vance all along. And the fact
that wait, Clay's face what. He's been the leader of
the Katie Britt for VP squad here on the radio
at least for a few weeks. And I will say this,
Trump tends to like pretty, and she's pretty, so that
helps Katy Brit.
Speaker 6 (41:09):
Katie Britt is definitely pretty. She's good looking, She's really
energetic on the campaign trail. She's very very good. She
was very close to Mitch mccollins. She was late in
endorsing Trump. So it might not be her, but Trump,
I've heard from people in good Authoria. Trump actually is
a very good relations with her, likes her. He likes
him Scott too. But a part of it is an
issue of loyalty that he questions and he worries about.
(41:32):
And you know, there is definitely a deep conversation. I
wrote this on my substec, the National Popular Subtect. There
is a deep worry about both the relationship if he
wants to have somebody he likes, because he never didn't
dislike Mike Pence, but they were never bros. They were
never hanging out. They didn't exactly always like vibe great together.
That's part of it. But also he believes the Democrats
(41:53):
are going to try to prosecute him for the rest
of his life, regardless of if he does something, he
doesn't do something, so he wants them who if they're
the next Republican president, will just.
Speaker 3 (42:03):
They've got his back?
Speaker 4 (42:04):
Yeah, they continue to protect to protect all these mind
talk at d vance, Rubio would kind of come out
of nowhere, right, That's what I want. What's would the
Rubio play on this? I would have never guessed that.
Speaker 6 (42:16):
Well, he's probably the most prominent Latino in America right now.
It's not Ted Cruz. Ted CRUs I think still and
he took probably just endorsed Donald Trump. But Rubio has
definitely been talked about, and multiple people have told me
that Rubio was in the running and that now it's
really dwindling to the top two, top three, and he's
in the conversation. I don't know how series in the conversation.
(42:38):
Certainly JD. Van and Katie Brett are very high in
the conversation, and aesthetics matter and looks matter, and he
loves to sit there and say they came out of
Central casting. So they came out of central casting part
of it.
Speaker 2 (42:51):
Yeah, so Ryan, we're being Ryan Gerdusky. Check out his
substack National Populist Newsletter. I'm a subscriber. I highly recommend
you do the same, Ryan, for Super Tuesday. What do
you look what matters today? Like, what are you looking
at in terms of these numbers? We'll have the data
for everybody tomorrow or the outcomes for everybody, Well.
Speaker 3 (43:10):
What are you looking at?
Speaker 2 (43:11):
And saying, well, that'll be an interesting indicator or that
will at least be something worth paying attention to, because
right now it feels like Nikki Haley's about to get
wiped out in fifteen states plus American Samoa.
Speaker 6 (43:21):
Yeah, I mean, she might do well in Vermont, but
we'll wait and see. She didn't make issues. She's not
the first woman to ever win our Republican primary, so
she has that at least let's put on her head.
But the thing that we're looking forward to, I mean,
Trump did very well in the suburbs of Michigan surprisingly well.
I thought that Haley would probably break forty five percent
and a few of them, and she really didn't outside
(43:42):
of ann Arbor, which was surprising. So I'm going to
look at the Northern Virginia suburbs of DC to see
how they vote. It's a lot of government jobs, but
also the Richmond suburbs to see how they vote if
Trump's strong or not with them. I'm going to look
at to see in the Texas suburbs of Dallas, which
are trending blue every single solitary year they do. And
I'm also very importantly going to be looking at how
(44:03):
Hispanics vote in South Texas and in other Hispanic hubs
because Biden has been performing very badly with Hispanics in
the Democratic primaries, and that no one has really been
talking about. But turnout among the banks has not been
strong in support for Biden has been weaker overall among
Hispanics in the Democratic primary in the early States, even
in like New Hampshire, this is not very Hispanic, but
(44:24):
there's a few Hispanic precincts he performed worse in. So
those are really two things I'll be very very heavy
looking at what are the suburbs looking like and what
are the Hispanics in the Democratic primary you're looking like,
because those are two key constituencies that both menu to
do well with Ryan.
Speaker 4 (44:39):
Do you buy into the fact that Trump is up
right now? I know we the last time we talked
to you, you said you would pick Trump if the
election were then I'm assuming you'd pick Trump if the
election were today instead of Super Tuesday. Biden's saying the
polls aren't accurate, but I've also seen behind the scenes
and again, and you always you never argue the polls
are are inaccurate if you're doing well, and that is
(45:01):
a general consensus that there seems to be a great
deal of fear in Georgia and Arizona. I even saw
a top Democrat officials a few of them say, yeah,
we're kind of almost thinking about taking these states off
the board based on the numbers they're seeing, which would
mean Biden's only pathway is to, you know, get Wisconsin, Michigan,
and Pennsylvania again. But I wanted to ask you whether
(45:24):
you buy into that. And second part of that, Maine
is Maine in play? Is there a state that we
aren't talking about as a swing state Minnesota, Virginia. Is
there one that you could look at and say, hey,
maybe this one's in play. I think the seven or
eight that we talk about usually. Is there any other
state out there that's standing out to you?
Speaker 6 (45:44):
So it's important to remember that poles are not predictors
of the futures. There are snapshots of the president, so
things could change. But in the last since New Year's
there have been forty four poles and five nationwide poles,
and Biden has only led in six of them. That
is truly not only unprecedented for Biden and any Republican
(46:05):
against Trump, but any Republican really going back to two
thousand a. Bush was not leading in many early polls
in two thousand and four when he won the national vote.
So and state polls are starting to reflect that. There's
the den Moine Register ple today, which is the best polster.
An Feldzer is the best poster in America. She is
very rarely wrong. She had Trump up plus seven in
(46:26):
both sixteen and twenty in Iowa, and he won by eight.
Today's pole came out he is up by fifteen. And
the way people vote is people voting clusters Iowa is
not moving to the right, and have Minnesota and Wisconsin
maybe move to the left. They're all moving to the
right together. And if Iowa is going from an R
plus seventh state to an R plus fifteen state, that
(46:47):
is a Republican plus two national environment, that is a
Trump plus two national environment. Things are very, very very bad.
I mean, I know Biden has a lot of money
in the bank. Is about two hundred five million dollars
what I understand for the fall, But when voters have
an opinion that is fixated the way that Obama was
able to create the narrative around Mitt Romney months before
(47:10):
people even voted, there's really no shaking that. I don't
know many people unless they radically changes in our country,
which could happen a terrorist attack or war or whatever.
I don't see how people's opinions of Bride are going
to change to being a competent, serious person. And I
just think the news cycles are getting worse for me.
He just gave a promotion to that woman who was
(47:30):
in charge of leaving Afghanistan. I mean, which is I
was ulver for leaving Afghanism, but the way they did
it was a disaster. He doesn't. There's no real noticing
how bad things are, and they're still if they did,
if they really cared, something would be done on the
border right now. And nothing is being done on the
border right now, and that is testament to why they
how they think that they're not changing direction. And that's
(47:52):
a very bad place when you're that far behind in
so many national poles.
Speaker 2 (47:56):
What do you think, Ryan, if we could try to
surmise the top advisors around Biden and the people at
the very top of the DNC hierarchy, if we could
be in their smoke filled, you know, back room understanding
what they think is going to turn this around or
what their plan is. Do you know, do you have
(48:16):
a sense of what it would be or do you
think that the plan right now is they don't have
one because the plans are failing so far.
Speaker 6 (48:23):
Well. Their plan is that people are going to care
about democracy and think of January sixth and the election
is stolen. They even said so much yesterday in some
media report that no January sixth is going to get
us to election day victory. And with a certain voter demographic,
they are one hundred percent right. There are certain people
that think January six happened basically yesterday, and that democracy
(48:43):
and result. They're not wrong about that, but it is
a very luxury belief. It is a very bourgeois belief.
And as much as they can sit there and say that,
you know, the economy is doing so well, and in
some sectors it probably is, people are not feeling it
when they're going grocery shopping. Inflation is still on their mind.
Things that are not changing, and the border is becoming
a bigger and bigger issue. According to the latest poll
(49:05):
from I think it was the New York Times, it
was twenty percent and now say the border is their
number one issue, which is extremely high. It's higher than
the economy. And that is not a great place. That
was the Wall Street Journal rather there said that that
is not a great place to be in when your
biggest weakness of all polling is the number one issue.
And we are early, they're already admitting there's six million
(49:26):
more people. Are two million more people coming between now
and election day as they come into our cities like
Denver and New York, Boston, these places that are and
those are not in swing states, but Philadelphia, those places
are experiencing huge cuts their public sector health there if
they're acping explosion of homelessness as these stories of the
(49:47):
illegal alien and migrant crime keep coming up. There was
like nine big stories in the last week alone. Venezuela
allegedly emptied out their prisons to send their gang members here.
That is only going to make things worse for him,
and they seem not to even notice because they believe
there are enough white suburbanites who care enough about January
sixth to get them to election day. Maybe they're right,
(50:10):
but there is no hard indication in any of the
data showing that.
Speaker 1 (50:13):
Ryan.
Speaker 3 (50:14):
Do you buy it?
Speaker 4 (50:14):
I mentioned in a second ago quick hit here to
finish with you, Maine, Maine. Right now, I know they
divvy up their four electoral votes by congressional district. I
think gets one for each and then two overall. Right now,
they have Trump on the board, winning at least one
of those districts and potentially winning the state.
Speaker 6 (50:31):
Do you buy it if RFK is on the ballot?
I think so. Maine is the state that Pero almost won.
I think he lost Maine by one point back in
ninety two, and he did very well in ninety six.
Is a very independent thinking state. If they vote independence
their senators, and Gus King is an independent former governor
was an independent. It absolutely could be if rfk's on
the ballot. I don't think he's got ballot access, yeh,
(50:52):
but we'll have to wait and see first.
Speaker 4 (50:54):
Ryan, you kill it, we'll have you on quite a lot.
Good luck one more time. The candidate you're working for,
we'll let you give him at a poppy.
Speaker 6 (51:00):
Here text twenty six and the newsletters, the National popularst
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Speaker 1 (51:05):
Good stuff.
Speaker 4 (51:05):
Ryan Gardowski, he's got good energy. He's working down in Dallas,
working the poll It's impossible for me to say that
without thinking I've been a strip club. But a lot
of you out there working the polls. Maybe maybe you're
a little bit tired. Maybe you woke up, don't have
the same energy that you used to. It's the middle
of the week.
Speaker 1 (51:26):
You're starting to think.
Speaker 4 (51:27):
Ah, I don't even know if I'm gonna make it
to Friday. It's only Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (51:30):
It feels like it's Thursday already.
Speaker 4 (51:31):
Maybe you're gonna stay up late tonight watch some of
the results come in. Maybe you're gonna be watching college
basketball like me. Good game Perdue, Illinois, Great game maybe Alabama, Florida,
and you just don't have the energy when you wake
up in the morning. How much different would you feel
if you had twenty percent more energy? How about if
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(51:55):
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Chalk Choq. Use my name Clay.
Speaker 1 (52:50):
That's Chalk Cchoq check it out today Cheap Up with
Clay and Bucks campaign coverage with twenty four A Sunday
highlight reel from the week you did on
Speaker 4 (53:00):
The free iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
Welcome to today's edition of the Clay Travis and Buck
Sexton Show podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
All right, so we're talking about the election underway today
with the primary Super Tuesday. Fifteen states plus American Samoa. Yes, Clay,
I was right about that. By the way, that's why
people are saying sixteen American Samoa and not a state
but gets to vote.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (00:22):
I've never been to American Samo. I wonder.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
I have friends who have been to Guam because of
the military base there, and they say that it's a
military base on an island, not super exciting.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
I wonder what American Samo is like. I have no idea.
Speaker 4 (00:37):
Maybe I'll go check it out someday, but I know
on live to Hawaii. Other than I would love to
go to the Hawaiian Islands. It's one of my places
that I still haven't been to.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
I've heard Hawaii is one of the most beautiful places
on earth. It is a truly blessed state in terms
of just natural beauty, resources and everything else. But unfortunately
it's very democrat, which is a shame. You and I
are funny that way, we both I was just talking
to somebody who was a senior person in the Trump
administration a few days ago, and she was we were
(01:06):
talking about it, and I said, you know, Clay and
I both we have a I think it's because I
started my career and you were in college there, so
we were in fun when you're twenty twenty years old,
twenty two years old, which is good. I think you
can have fun wherever you are, basically, but I have
fun memories of DC, even though it's a communist heel hole.
She was saying that she couldn't get out of DC
fast enough as an adult every single weekend that she
(01:28):
worked for the Trump administration because she loved it.
Speaker 4 (01:30):
I thought d C was fantastic. Now I know the
crimes out of control right now, it's setting all time highs.
It's probably, honestly, not much different than it was back
in the nineties. When the late nineties when I was there,
it was high.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
I think it was probably a lot worse than actually
by the number it maybe things got so good in
a lot of cities because you know, enforcing the law works.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
What a shock. Things got so.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
Good in a lot of cities that now I think
people have really you know, they've forgotten how bad it
was before it got good. But anyway, back to Super
Tuesday stuff. Oh yeah, whai is amazing You Laura and
the boys should definitely go. I've been a few times.
Absolutely fantastic stake. As for Biden, I mentioned this at
(02:12):
the very very top, a series of Biden aids. This
is from a New Yorker reporter or journalist, a series
of senior Biden aids. Quote told me that they doubt
Biden is trailing Trump as much as some.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
Polls have suggested.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
Quote.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
Polling is broken. Okay, let's before we die. Now.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
That's interesting because, as we've said, guys, the polling so
far in this election cycle has been pretty spot on
across the board.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
There's been no big surprises to speak of.
Speaker 2 (02:44):
CNN's data guy was on TV. This is pretty funny.
This is I think where the Democrats are right now.
They don't know what to do because the numbers don't
make sense to them because what they think should be
destrewing Trump, what they think should be pushing Trump under
the water, is elevating him out, is lifting him up
(03:08):
into the skies. This has cut six. This is CNN
freaking out.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
Player.
Speaker 5 (03:12):
I like to dig a little bit deeper into the
polling data, and this to me sort of says it all.
Has Trump committed serious federal crimes A majority, a majority
of likely voters say.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
Yes he did.
Speaker 5 (03:23):
Yeah he's still ahead.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
How is that possible?
Speaker 5 (03:26):
Because look at twenty twenty four Trump supporters. It turns
out eighteen percent of them say that Trump has actually
committed serious federal crimes, and yet they're still voting for it.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
Clay, I just think this is so significant because it
starts to go to maybe they really did just miscalculate
on this whole thing. Maybe the prosecutions are just backfiring
ways that they didn't anticipate because they have Trump arrangement syndrome.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
I think that's one hundred percent accurate. And I said
yesterday and to me, this is the essence of the race.
If you look at that New York Times poll has
Trump up four or five points, depending, which is the
biggest lead he's ever had in.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
New York Times poll.
Speaker 4 (04:05):
Sienna, and also we should mention in general, when your
argument is the polls are wrong, it always means you're losing.
Nobody ever says the polls are wrong when they're winning.
Just out there for everybody to think about. Sometimes the
polls were wrong in sixteen, they were in twenty not
so much right, and in twenty two they were actually
(04:27):
wrong in favor of Republicans. So and by the way,
wrong can mean one or two points off because our
races are so close.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
But Buck, the data actually reflects. And this is what
I would say to the Trump team.
Speaker 4 (04:40):
You've got to make Joe Biden the story because people's
opinions of Trump haven't actually changed. And I think that's
ultimately what that CNN analyst who's losing his mind over
is coming to grips with the favorability and unfavorability for Trump,
Buck is nearly identical in twenty and twenty four have collapsed.
(05:01):
That's will change. Also, I think that it makes it
very clear how much they have miscalculated this. If the
numbers really do show and continue to show, that Donald
Trump as a convicted felon.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
Put aside that you know, we think that it's garbage
and that these are it's lawfair, it's just the reality.
The technical reality would be that he would in this scenario,
that he would be a convicted felon, and that he
would still as a convicted felon. Trounce Joe Biden. There
is absolutely not a single prominent Democrat I think thought
(05:39):
that would be the case like that that you know, yeah,
they thought Republicans would still vote.
Speaker 3 (05:43):
They didn't think though, that.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
More people would vote for him if you were if
you were tried and convicted of all this, And that
seems to be the trend right now, which is quite
a shock to them.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
I think it's Biden collapsing. And this is why I
don't think the money's gonna They're going to spend billions
of dollars, billions of dollars on this election. Who doesn't
have their mind made up about Trump or Biden right now?
We've not it was eighteen ninety two when we had
a rematch. We effectively have two incumbent presidents. Everyone on
(06:16):
the planet, but certainly every one of the United States,
has an opinion of Donald Trump.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
We know that.
Speaker 4 (06:22):
And the opinion of Donald Trump is about eight or
nine points to the negative Biden. Now everybody has an
opinion on him and Biden. At the time of the
twenty twenty election, Buck had a I jotted this down.
Biden at the time of the twenty twenty election had
a plus ten net positive fifty two percent of people
(06:43):
liked Biden and forty two percent of people disliked him.
Compared to Trump, that was a plus twenty because Trump
was about ten points underwater. I'm talking about just whether
you like the guy or not. And so they ran
the Joe Biden's a good guy and and everybody's going
to be you know, he's this year kindly old grandfather.
(07:05):
And what happened is those numbers have taint. Biden's favorability
went from fifty two in the last election to thirty eight,
and his lack of favorability is unfavorable rating skyrocketed from
forty two to fifty nine. So Biden went from plus
ten people kind of like him to minus twenty one.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
Trump hasn't moved at all. That's the election, and that's what.
Speaker 4 (07:30):
I think is going to stay the same, because I
don't think people are going to change their opinion about
Biden or Trump, and I think Trump's gonna win eight
months out.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
That's what the numbers would reflect.
Speaker 4 (07:40):
I don't think they're gonna move much, and I think
Democrats are slowly starting.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
To recognize that.
Speaker 4 (07:45):
And anytime you say the polls are wrong, your guy's
probably not doing that well.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
Just just FYI, the.
Speaker 4 (07:52):
Polls are wrong. The polls are wrong. Have you even
heard of democrat make that argument before in the presidential election?
Speaker 2 (07:59):
No, it's this is the last This is the last
option you have is to say the numbers aren't really
the numbers, or we don't believe the numbers. That's because
you can't spin them because they're so clear in one direction.
And look, it's still ongoing. But the big plan, the
trojan horse that they were trying to roll out before
(08:19):
Maga front Gate here is so far a massive failure,
which is this whole legal thing. Yes, and I'll be honest,
I didn't think it would be such a failure. I
thought that, you know, because there was some early polling
and I figured, well, maybe they're they're gonna be able
to fool people. But you know, maybe people have a
little more memory of Russia collusion and the farce that
(08:39):
that was. Maybe maybe there's the exhaustion with all the
screaming about Trump as Hitler and destroying the Republic has
finally reached a point where people have just had enough.
Speaker 3 (08:49):
I don't know, we'll see.
Speaker 4 (08:51):
I think they likely have. And you know what, I
haven't had enough of yet. Buck March madness.
Speaker 3 (08:56):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (08:57):
I'm gonna watch college basketball.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
Tonight while I'm gonna be I don't know how many
of you are going to be like me, flipping back
and forth between the Alabama Florida basketball game, also to
see what the Super Tuesday results are going to be,
just to confirm. I think basically, as soon as the
polls are shutting down in each state, they're going to
immediately go ahead and call it, and then we'll see
how much of a margin we're going to run up,
meaning Donald Trump. But I am super excited to watch
(09:21):
the Florida game tonight. Go ahead to head with Alabama.
It's a great SEC basketball game. It's probably the best
Top twenty five matchup for the evening. Let me make
sure about that as we all get geared up for it.
Purdue Illinois also going to be a really good game
that is going on. Purdue is going to have a
tough time on the road at Illinois. But Alabama Florida game,
(09:42):
I'm going to be watching the most. Both those games
kick tipping off at seven o'clock Eastern, and I want
to make sure that you can have fun with me
watching those games. If you sign up for price picks
right now. You can get hooked up one hundred dollars.
I don't think we do any ads where we say, hey,
we'll give you one hundred dollars. If you put one
hundred dollars down, they will double your money. All you
(10:03):
have to do is go to price picks dot com.
Use my name Clay as the code boom. You can
have some fun. I'm going to give you picks tomorrow
that I am confident in, that I am hopeful that
we're going to get back on the winning track with.
But in the meantime, why don't you go ahead and
put one hundred dollars in your pocket. Prize picks dot com.
Use my name Clay Clay one hundred dollars. You put
(10:23):
in one hundred dollars, you get back one hundred dollars.
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Speaker 1 (10:38):
Do it.
Speaker 4 (10:39):
Let's have some fun tonight watching Floridabama, watching Purdue Illinois,
and getting ready for March Madness A boil boy, I
love it and we're almost there. Price picks dot com,
Code Clay.
Speaker 1 (10:50):
Subscribe to CNB twenty four to seven and never miss
a minute of Clay and.
Speaker 4 (10:54):
Buck while getting behind the scene access to special content
for members on label Welcome in our number two Clay
Travis Buck Sexton show.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
All right, let's hit a couple of stories here. Buck one.
Speaker 4 (11:08):
Michelle Obama, who I still believe is going to be
the nominee in the twenty twenty four race, has officially
issued a statement saying she has no interest in being
the nominee and that she supports Joe Biden and Kamala Harris,
which Buck I will say is exactly what she would
(11:28):
say if she were going to.
Speaker 6 (11:33):
No.
Speaker 4 (11:33):
I'm just saying, if it goes to the convention, there's
going to be a ton of people out there begging
for the nomination. Gavin Newsom will take you into fancy
French laundering dinners. Gretchen Whitmer will take you out on
her husband's boat that he took out when everybody else
(11:54):
wasn't allowed to have their boat out.
Speaker 1 (11:56):
But nobody remembers that. Evidently, in during the covid Era, JB.
Speaker 4 (12:01):
Pritzker, billionaire Air of the I believe Marriott, Hotel Fortune,
I think that or Hilton or something, Hotel Air. He'll
buy you whatever he needs to buy you. Shapiro the
governor up in Pennsylvania. He'll throw his name in the mix.
And out there sitting on the edge watching all of
(12:21):
this playout, Michelle Obama, the savior of the Democrat Party
come August.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
So you think it is disinformation when Michelle Obama's team
puts out there that she has absolutely no interest in running,
that she fully backs Joe Biden.
Speaker 3 (12:38):
And this is not happening.
Speaker 4 (12:39):
This is what everybody does when they actually want the job.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
I'm just telling you right now, I'm gonna make Clay.
He's gonna cut up my steak. You know, he's gonna
cut up my steak in front of me, and he's
gonna have to tie a little bib, like you know
when you go to red Lobster or something, a little
bib around my neck and maybe even feed me the
steak and say that you know the choo choo train
is coming or whatever. Because this is you are dead
ending this one, my friend. You are not budgeting I'm
(13:08):
not getting off.
Speaker 4 (13:09):
I'm not getting off the Michelle Obama train until Joe
Biden is officially accepting the Democrat nomination. That's what I
will say. Okay, there is nobody else it has to be,
and whatever day that is, Ali can look up the date.
I will come on the show the day after Joe
Biden officially accepts the nomination, if it happens in August,
(13:30):
and I will say, Buck Sexton, you have won yourself
a stake.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
You can pick time and place.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
And also I think that day I get to just
play we are the champions. Every time I bring us
back from a break, that'll be my rejoin music.
Speaker 4 (13:44):
So so we'll see, we'll see what ends up happening there.
I don't think the denial surprises me at all. In fact,
the denial just actually means that the Michelle Obama chatter
had become so loud that somebody said, hey, can you
please put out a statement to make them know that
we're not planning on this again. It's going to be
(14:05):
the draft Michelle movement, all right. I saw this though yesterday. Buck,
I told you my new prediction, which I reserve the
right to alter, is that if I were betting right now,
I think Tim Scott is going to be the selection
for Donald Trump for VP. And I said that because
I believe Trump believes, and I think there may be
(14:25):
some evidence of it, that black men may support Trump
at a level that black men have never supported a
Republican before. And I was out last night buck at
an event with our guys Lit, who do the opening
song that we play every hour, charity event, and there
were other people there at charity event. I won't say
(14:46):
who I was talking to, but he's involved in athletics,
and he was saying that inside of college locker rooms
right now, there is on athletic teams young black men
who are far more favorably disposed to Donald Trump right
now than they are Joe Biden, that that is a
(15:08):
conversation happening in locker rooms college athletes sitting around as
they're you know, talking about politics sometimes probably not super
plugged in right they're playing basketball, they're playing football, they're
playing baseball, whatever it is. But that the young black
voter mail is up for grabs in a way that
may not have happened before. And I think Trump believes
(15:31):
not only that, but also black men in general, I
think Trump thinks he can get twenty five percent of
the black mail vote. I think if Donald Trump are
on with us right now, he would say I can
get a quarter of the black mail voter.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
But I Trump would say that he could get more
than that. I don't think Donald Trump will be able
to get the when you owe the of the black
mail vote.
Speaker 4 (15:51):
He's not gonna get Black women. They are committed, they
are committed to Joe Biden. But more than any group.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
I think he might get an extra you know, I
don't know, two or three points total among the black
vote compared to the last time around.
Speaker 3 (16:04):
You know, you're you're talking about trying to move the.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
Needle, so to speak, with the most you know, solidified
loyal party line voting block of of any of any
group that you could think, right, I mean, the Black
community votes more in lockstep with the Democrat Party than
any other major demographic that you could look at.
Speaker 3 (16:27):
Not even anybody else close. It's not even close. It's
always over.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
I mean, it's basically ninety percent plus every time, ninety
percent plus every time in national elections. So I don't
know if Donald Trump can really move the needle with
them that much. I think that the smarter strategy for
Trump is probably to just look at how did he
win in twenty sixteen, right, And how he won in
twenty sixteen was bringing over white working class voters from
(16:54):
key states, and that's what And some of them didn't
show up twenty twenty, some of them weren't as motivated
in twenty twenty.
Speaker 3 (17:04):
And you know, there's a whole bunch of stuff we
could talk about, but.
Speaker 2 (17:08):
That's I think the likelier pathway to victory for him
is to because it's just so much bigger in terms
of the raw numbers, it's just a much bigger group demographically, right.
I mean, put as on whether you think it's even
possible to move much of the black vote toward Donald Trump,
which would be great, And I'm sure you know, like
I said, Trump is going to say probably fifty percent,
maybe eighty percent. I mean, he's going to say that
(17:28):
he can do much better.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
But I think that.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
It's likely or that you'll see the deciding factor in
the swing states will be white working class voters because
Trump is the demographic that he has really lost in
recent years. It's basically anybody went to college that's college
educated across the board is a big problem for Trump,
which I think actually says a lot about what a
(17:51):
college education does to people ideologically.
Speaker 3 (17:55):
But that's a separate issue.
Speaker 4 (17:56):
We're going to talk to Ryan Gardski about some of
this data and also super Tuesday at Bout Out of
the Out.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
Can I agree about some of your supposition? I want to, like,
I haven't. I haven't previewed this with him. I want
to know what he thinks about getting more than black ones.
Let's ask him. Yeah, yeah, we'll ask him about that directly.
Speaker 4 (18:08):
But what I was going to tie in with this
is I want to play this clip from Charles Barkley
that was on CNN with Gail King. I think is
her name right? That he does his show weekly with
h They have a they have a show, and I'm
actually the reason why I want to play it is
I think there's now some trepidation that the black male
(18:31):
vote maybe trending towards Trump, because you're hearing a lot
of people suddenly it feels like, try to police what
black male voters.
Speaker 1 (18:40):
Are able to do. Right.
Speaker 4 (18:41):
This is what you see from Democrats a lot. If
you are black and you're willing to vote for Trump,
female or male, but in particular I see it with
male influencers, so to speak. They try to say, hey,
you're not really able to do that. And here's Charles
Barkley saying that on CNN. I want you to all listen.
(19:01):
I like Charles Barkley, I know him, interviewed him a
bunch of times, been out to dinner with him. I
don't agree with everything he says, and I certainly disagree
with this, but I want you to listen.
Speaker 7 (19:12):
If I see a black person walking around with Trump munks,
I'm gonna punch him in the face.
Speaker 8 (19:16):
Charles, I know, Gil, Gil, Gil.
Speaker 6 (19:19):
You really can't say that because A, you don't mean that.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
Oh, I mean that sincerely, I'm gonna.
Speaker 8 (19:23):
Just tell you something and then you will be arrested
for assault and.
Speaker 6 (19:26):
Then what I'm gonna bail myself out and go celebrate.
Speaker 3 (19:30):
If I still encourage him.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
Don't encourage him, Okay, but continue.
Speaker 3 (19:35):
First off, I was at that at that conference, I'd
have got up and walked out.
Speaker 7 (19:38):
That was an insult to all black people because he
basically just saying to compare black history where we've been discriminated.
Speaker 3 (19:45):
Against his plights.
Speaker 7 (19:46):
Yes, well, first of all, he's a billionaire and they're
prosecuting him for stuff he did wrong.
Speaker 4 (19:52):
Okay, So again part of the challenge on a lot
of these things is Charles Barkley is very funny. So
when and she says you don't mean that, and he says,
I do mean it, it's also still played for laughs.
But even if you were playing that for laughs, if
a white political prognosticator said, if I see somebody who's
(20:14):
voting for somebody I don't like, wearing a shirt I
don't like, I'm gonna walk up and hit them, it
would be evidence of white supremacy. It would be taken
completely seriously, even if it's an attempt at a joke.
But what to me this represents buck is there is
an inroads that Trump has tried to make in Black America,
black men in particular, and I think there is some registration. Now,
(20:34):
I don't think Trump's argument of I'm getting arrested and
I'm getting prosecuted and so that makes black people like
me more is very likely true. But the fact that
he's attempting this outreach I think has a lot of
people uncomfortable, because if he got twenty five percent of
the black vote, the Democrat coalition doesn't work. I'm talking
(20:57):
about twenty five percent of the black mail vote. It
just doesn't doesn't add up. Or even if he just
gets people not to show up.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
He's not going to get anywhere near twenty five percent
of the Black vote. It's just not the clay.
Speaker 4 (21:09):
That would be a political earthquake black male vote. When
I say twenty five percent, I mean one in four
Black men could vote for Trump.
Speaker 2 (21:18):
I think what would the aggregate Let's look at the
aggregate number, though, So what are you thinking? I think
last time it would be like nine of the total
Black vote.
Speaker 1 (21:27):
I think it was nine percent something like that.
Speaker 4 (21:29):
Yeah, and that is ninety nine percent female, right, so
ninety nine percent of Black women are voting for Yes.
Of black women are Black Democrats. So much of that
number already is coming from black men. I think the
number is around twelve or thirteen percent of Black men
supposedly voted for Trump in twenty twenty. I think that's
(21:51):
the number. So you're talking about a doubling. I think
I think he could double black male support in twenty
twenty four. I think that's what he believes, and I
think if he puts Tim Scott on the ticket. That's
what he's gambling that he's going to be able to do.
Speaker 2 (22:09):
I feel like every election cycle Republicans go down this
pathway and they say, you know, maybe this time because yeah,
we would love we would love a lot more than
twenty five percent of the blackmail vote or the black
vote in general to be Republican.
Speaker 1 (22:23):
But we go through this.
Speaker 2 (22:25):
And it's always you know, people raise a bunch of
money and they say, oh, we're going to change the
voting habits of the black community this time around. Never works.
Just this is cynical meat, just telling you never works.
I can try, it doesn't work, I know, you know
what I mean. And that to me is the other
thing we're forgetting on the ticket. That's the way that
(22:46):
doesn't But that doesn't work what he's thinking, I know.
But that's what he's thinking if he does it. To me,
if he's thinking that and he does it, I think
he's not paying attention to what's happened in American politics
for like the last forty years.
Speaker 3 (22:56):
Anytime that you.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
Have a black person, by the way, shock you. No,
that doesn't mean yeah, that he won't do it. I'm
just saying he actually might just you know, but black
Republicans do not get the allegiance of black voters. That's
not how you know, that's not how it works. That's
just I mean, look at it. Look at all these
(23:19):
different times you've had, you know, look at the kind
of numbers that when you know, when Herman Kane rest
in peace, when he was running in GOP and you know,
you see when I say you see a little bit
of movement, there's maybe a little more of a sense
of okay, like, but the the black vote is just
is incredibly consistent and solidified for Democrats and has been
for so I.
Speaker 1 (23:40):
Get it right.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
It's like, if you can break that coalition, you've broken
the Democrat Party effectively. But this is a little bit
like when Democrats say they want to win Texas. It's like, okay,
but you know, you're you're going, you know, you ever
play Capture the Flag back in the day, right, You're
you're just making a sprint for the flag. You're not
doing any tactics. You're going right for it to take
the fight to the other side.
Speaker 3 (24:00):
So yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 1 (24:03):
We'll see.
Speaker 4 (24:03):
I'm actually curious what Kurdusky will say at the bottom
of the hour but that is to me again, if
he's going to pick as his vice presidential candidate Tim Scott,
that is Trump saying, I believe we're going to make
an inroads with black mail voters again, black and mail.
Speaker 1 (24:18):
I don't think it's gonna be.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
Hard to do that.
Speaker 2 (24:20):
Before and there was the First Step Act and the
stuff that Jared Kushner was involved in, and that backfired.
Speaker 3 (24:26):
Actually that was not good because.
Speaker 1 (24:28):
Then that was a man.
Speaker 2 (24:29):
Black Lives Matter was rampaging through American cities.
Speaker 3 (24:34):
It was it didn't.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
We just do a whole jail Break Act thing and
let all these people out of prison who were supposed
to serve much longer sentences, remember that, So you know.
Speaker 4 (24:42):
Yeah, and by the way, we should put We talked
a lot about October surprises. BLM has been very quiet.
Every four years, BLM finds somebody to rally around. They
did with George Floyd in twenty twenty. I think that
destroyed any possibility of Trump had much inroads with the
black vote. Will there be another BLM uprising in the
(25:06):
next few months. It's about time for that to start
to get percolating. If they're going to try to turn
that dial up again, very well.
Speaker 3 (25:15):
Could be.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
We'll take some calls eight hundred two two two eight two.
You know, as Kamala Harris shouts out about the right
to abortion, do you think she takes people into consideration
that might be outside her circle of friends?
Speaker 3 (25:26):
Probably not.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
There are so many people in this country who believe
in the value of life, people who think that life
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Thankfully though, there's an organization like Preborn that acts with
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The supply chain of Smarts, Sanity and Truth Uninterrupted.
Speaker 1 (26:35):
Clay Travis and Buck Sexton.
Speaker 2 (26:37):
Welcome back into Clay and Buck. I want to talk
a little bit about immigration here for a second. This
up on Daily Mail, Elon Musk bashed President Biden's administration
after they admitted to flying three hundred and twenty thousand
unvetted migrants in the US. As Musk said, it could
mean something far worse than eleven that was on X.
(27:02):
Musk took to his platform on Tuesday said the president's
administration is importing voters and creating a national security threat.
Elon also tweeted out Clay America will fail if it
tries to absorb the world. That is why I am
banging the drums so much about this issue. I think
(27:23):
it is the most important issue in the country faces
right now. Donald Trump out there, this is cut eighteen.
He's out there telling everybody that there are going to
be and as we all, I think now the left,
the Democrats are realizing this is something they better take
seriously because Trump is way ahead. There are going to
be mass deportations of illegal aliens in this country.
Speaker 3 (27:46):
Play eighteen.
Speaker 8 (27:46):
Will you order mass deportations if you win the White House?
Speaker 6 (27:50):
Oh?
Speaker 8 (27:50):
Day one, we have no choice, said, We'll start with
the bad ones, and you know who knows who they are?
Speaker 6 (27:55):
Local police. Local police have.
Speaker 8 (27:57):
To be given back their authority, and they have to
begin giving back their respect and immunity. We're going to
give them immunity, and they don't them by the first name,
the middle name in the last name, and they will
take them out, and they will we will get them out. Look,
this is not sustainable by any country, even if they
weren't as bad as they are. This is not sustainable
by any country.
Speaker 2 (28:19):
That's true. I think that's an important point as well
with all this play. No other country would do this.
No other country on the planet would allow what is
happening to us to happen to them.
Speaker 4 (28:28):
And remember, many of these people are going to have kids,
and those kids are going to become citizens. And that's
why I say there are two primary incentive structors. This
is where the conversation needs to go. Everything occurs in
life to a large extent based on the incentives that
you create. People respond to incentives. One is, thankfully, we
(28:51):
are a capitalist society, and our economy produces a massive
amount of jobs.
Speaker 1 (28:59):
And the reason why a lot.
Speaker 4 (29:00):
Of people are coming to the United States is because
those jobs pay far more than the jobs if they
exist in their home countries. So the economic incentive is
almost impossible to erase. Now you could say, well, we
need to start finding companies that hire illegals, and there
need to be substantial consequences for that. All of those
things can be true, but the incentive structure of jobs
(29:23):
is a major driver.
Speaker 1 (29:24):
The other one is we've got to end birthright citizenship
once and for all.
Speaker 4 (29:29):
So building a wall to help to keep people from
being able to get in, having effective border security that matters.
But also we have to do away with birthright citizenship
because I think a lot fewer people would come here
if they weren't thinking, oh, I'm going to go there
and I'm gonna have a kid. And once you have
a kid that's an American citizen, your chances of ever
(29:50):
getting deported out of America collapse.
Speaker 1 (29:55):
So the two incentive structures.
Speaker 4 (29:57):
You have to address them if we want to truly
address this issue. And this is why I get disappointed
sometimes in the way that these conversations occur. For instance,
if you believe, as I think you and I both do,
and everybody out there, no matter where you are in
the country, that we have too much violent crime in America,
then you have to have a real conversation about who
commits violent crime. And the reality is over half of
(30:19):
all murders are committed by young black men. They represent
about three or four percent of the population. They commit
over half of all murders. If you are going to
stop and by the way, most of their victims are
young black men as well. If you are going to
stop violent crime in America, you would have to police
more aggressively young black men. That's the only way to
(30:41):
stop it. So when you have all these people out
there saying, oh, the criminal justice system is racist, look
at well, we arrest people who commit violent crime and
tend to put people in prison who commit violent crime.
And even the argument of well, look at all the
non violent offenders. I think this is really important too.
They're non violent offenders because they pled guilty to a
non violviolent crime to avoid getting on trial for a
(31:02):
violent crime. Nobody has the If we really want to
solve things, you have to look at the facts and
the data, and you have to analyze them. You have
to have rational adult conversations. We don't have a lot
of rational adult conversations in this country, and so that
is one of the things that super frustrates me about
our discourse. If you're going to address the border or
violent crime or any of these issues, you have to
(31:24):
actually analyze them and talk about them like adults, as
opposed to artificially circumscribing what's allowed to be said. And
you pointed out, I think it's important no other country
does this. There's no other country in the world that
has in the last four three and a half years
allowed eight million illegals to come into its country.
Speaker 1 (31:46):
No one else in the world it would allow this
to happen.
Speaker 2 (31:50):
Everyone knows that it's a fraud, and they're saying this
now out loud. I've been saying it's a fraud for
the whole time, but now even Democrats are admitting it.
And so instead of saying we're not going to allow
people to perpetuate the fraud, that what the Democrats are
trying to do is just move the blame around and
act like somehow this was just a bipartisan thing that happened,
(32:12):
and it's not necessarily the result of decisions that were
made by people like or by Joe Biden and those
around him.
Speaker 3 (32:21):
I thought this was interesting too.
Speaker 2 (32:22):
John Fetterman, who we have been I think rightly on
some issues praising on this show because I think he
is a sound of sound mind on the issue of
Israel and Hamas and on immigration. You know, he's in Pennsylvania.
He's not up in this cycle, but he wants the
(32:46):
Pennsylvany I mean, he wants the Democrat running against who's
we just had him.
Speaker 8 (32:50):
On the.
Speaker 2 (32:52):
Who's running for Pennsylvania Republic Dave McCormick, thank you. He
doesn't want McCormick to win. So they've got to seem
re on the issue of immigration. And here is Fetterman
saying that he's willing to do a stronger immigration deal
than what was already even talked about in the Senate
play seventeen at.
Speaker 7 (33:12):
Least I as a Democrat, you know, and am willing
and eager to go stronger than the border deal that
was here it might be actually appropriate given the circumstance
here at the border.
Speaker 2 (33:25):
Okay, so Fetterman keeps saying things that are sensible. I
don't know what to say other than we're just going
to keep calling it out because he's saying we need
something even stronger. Because here's what's interesting. There was this
crossover between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders supporters. Yeah, everyone
remembers us for a little while on the issue of
immigration and workers. Because you even had Bernie Sanders going
(33:49):
out and saying, sometimes, forget about all the other comedy
stuff he says on this one issue, he understands. He
recognizes that if you have open borders, you are going
to hurt working class people or low income hourly wage
workers are going to bear the economic consequences of this
far more than anybody else. Trump was saying it, and
(34:11):
he was also speaking about it more in terms of
just national sovereignty and rule of law, but Bernie Sanders
was saying it as it pertains to workers. I think
someone like John Fetterman, who's really a you know, Bernie Sanders,
comes out of the Bernie Sanders mold, recognizes you're dumping
eight million people on the country. Who have low skills,
almost no ability to speak English, almost no educational background.
(34:33):
I mean, you know, by the numbers, based on what
we can see, Guess what that's going to mean. People
who rely on the state for services and people who
are trying to climb the economic ladder are going to
be pulled down.
Speaker 3 (34:48):
This is what happens. It's blind demand, no doubt.
Speaker 4 (34:52):
And I'm glad you brought that up because there was
a lot of people in New Hampshire and in Iowa.
Speaker 1 (34:57):
I mean, we'll forget now in twenty.
Speaker 4 (34:59):
Sixteen that we're deciding, hey, should I vote for Bernie
Sanders or Donald Trump in the primary, because there was
a massive desire for a disruptor, and you know before
they rigged the DNC, which I'm glad we finally got
those emails, But the DNC rigged the election in twenty
sixteen for Hillary Clinton. They did everything they could to
(35:20):
ensure that she was the nominee. But yes, I meant
there's a lot of people listening to us right now
in Iowa and New Hampshire, maybe even in other states too,
who weren't full on the Trump train yet in twenty
sixteen and may have been uncertain about even what primary
they were going to vote in. And this, to me
is another part of Biden's collapse. I hit you with
(35:41):
those Iowa numbers, Buck, but ten percent of Joe Biden
voters now are saying they're going to flip to Trump.
I never thought that that high of a percentage would flip.
That's according to the New York Times of Senapol that
they just came out with a lot of people bought
the Grandpa Joe argument and now they found out, you
know what, I was sold to Bill of goods.
Speaker 1 (36:01):
And it's not just that Biden has collapsed.
Speaker 4 (36:04):
It's that some people, maybe a lot of you listening
to us right now even were willing to buy into
Biden in twenty twenty and have seen the clarity and
the wrongness of their ways, and in twenty twenty four
are going to go back to Trump. I think that's
a big part of this story. Biden's collapse isn't just
hurting him with the turnout. There's actually a lot of
(36:25):
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Listen to the program live, catch up on any part
of the show you might have missed.
Speaker 4 (37:43):
You your CNB twenty four to seven subscription to get
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Speaker 1 (37:48):
Fine the Clay and Buck app in your app store
and make it part of your day.
Speaker 4 (37:52):
Welcome back in Clay, Travis buck Sexton Show. Appreciate all
of you hanging out with us. We go down to
our buddy, Ryan Gerdusky, data guru of the voting universe.
He is down in Texas where they are having their
primary today. A lot of big different battles that are
taking place in the state of Texas in the Republican primary. Again,
(38:13):
encourage all of you to go vote. My wife Laura
is working. It's gotta be careful. The phrase working the
poll definitely sounds like a stripper and she is working
at a polling site. I don't think you're working the
poll there, Ryan, hopefully not anyway.
Speaker 3 (38:27):
Uh yeah, yeah, that wouldn't be.
Speaker 4 (38:30):
I don't think you'd get a lot of dollar bills.
I don't think you either, Buck, nor I would either.
But so Buck and I were just talking VP right
as to what Trump is going to do. And I
said yesterday on the show that I thought, if I
were betting right now, I would take Tim Scott that
(38:50):
Trump believes that he can make a run at blackmail
voters in a way that has not occurred before. Buck says,
not gonna happen. That there's there's Trump's belief, and there's
what's going to happen. Trump believe you sure, I'm saying
it's not going to happen.
Speaker 2 (39:05):
It never happens. But Republicans are obsessed with talking about this. Ryan,
what do you say?
Speaker 4 (39:09):
We both agree black women are not going to vote
for Trump and they're not moving much. But are black men,
in your opinion, based on the data persuadable? Do you
buy into the idea that Trump seems to have bought
into that he can get blackmail voting support twenty five percent?
I think he could get twenty five percent.
Speaker 6 (39:30):
Okay, First of all, if you're in northern Texas, please
go for Brandon Gill on campaigny four.
Speaker 2 (39:34):
Secondly, wait, that's Brandon Gill, that's my friend Danielle de Suz's.
Speaker 6 (39:38):
Husband, Yes, Brandon gal Texas twenty six northern the Denton
County area. As far as the blackmail vote, so this
is what's happening with black voters. Older Black voters are
like ninety nine to one Democrat voters, so that is
not changing. But as that population begins aging and dying out,
younger Black voters were less connected to the Black Church especially,
(40:00):
are more independent. It went to the more Republican, but
the more independent. So you're seeing this gradual change. It's
not I mean, part of it is for Trump, but
not all of it's for Trump. Part of it is
just the changing demographics of that vote, especially for black
malt voters. Can you get twenty five percent of the
black mail vote? I don't know. I think that's a
little ambitious. You know, maybe he can. I think the
(40:20):
last time I got twelve or fifteen. Maybe he can
break twenty. That's probably at best because part of it
is just the demographic changes of younger Black people. Like
younger people period just don't vote that much. As far
as Vice President goes, I have on good authority, it's
not going to be Tim Scott, especially after Tim Scott
said that Mike Pence did everything right on January sixth.
(40:41):
I think he's on some Sunday show and I was
told on good authority the last few people really being
considered right now are Rubio, jd Vance, and Katie Britt.
Speaker 2 (40:53):
I've been saying jd Vance all along. And the fact
that wait, Clay's face what. He's been the leader of
the Katie Britt for VP squad here on the radio
at least for a few weeks. And I will say this,
Trump tends to like pretty, and she's pretty, so that
helps Katy Brit.
Speaker 6 (41:09):
Katie Britt is definitely pretty. She's good looking, She's really
energetic on the campaign trail. She's very very good. She
was very close to Mitch mccollins. She was late in
endorsing Trump. So it might not be her, but Trump,
I've heard from people in good Authoria. Trump actually is
a very good relations with her, likes her. He likes
him Scott too. But a part of it is an
issue of loyalty that he questions and he worries about.
(41:32):
And you know, there is definitely a deep conversation. I
wrote this on my substec, the National Popular Subtect. There
is a deep worry about both the relationship if he
wants to have somebody he likes, because he never didn't
dislike Mike Pence, but they were never bros. They were
never hanging out. They didn't exactly always like vibe great together.
That's part of it. But also he believes the Democrats
(41:53):
are going to try to prosecute him for the rest
of his life, regardless of if he does something, he
doesn't do something, so he wants them who if they're
the next Republican president, will just.
Speaker 3 (42:03):
They've got his back?
Speaker 4 (42:04):
Yeah, they continue to protect to protect all these mind
talk at d vance, Rubio would kind of come out
of nowhere, right, That's what I want. What's would the
Rubio play on this? I would have never guessed that.
Speaker 6 (42:16):
Well, he's probably the most prominent Latino in America right now.
It's not Ted Cruz. Ted CRUs I think still and
he took probably just endorsed Donald Trump. But Rubio has
definitely been talked about, and multiple people have told me
that Rubio was in the running and that now it's
really dwindling to the top two, top three, and he's
in the conversation. I don't know how series in the conversation.
(42:38):
Certainly JD. Van and Katie Brett are very high in
the conversation, and aesthetics matter and looks matter, and he
loves to sit there and say they came out of
Central casting. So they came out of central casting part
of it.
Speaker 2 (42:51):
Yeah, so Ryan, we're being Ryan Gerdusky. Check out his
substack National Populist Newsletter. I'm a subscriber. I highly recommend
you do the same, Ryan, for Super Tuesday. What do
you look what matters today? Like, what are you looking
at in terms of these numbers? We'll have the data
for everybody tomorrow or the outcomes for everybody, Well.
Speaker 3 (43:10):
What are you looking at?
Speaker 2 (43:11):
And saying, well, that'll be an interesting indicator or that
will at least be something worth paying attention to, because
right now it feels like Nikki Haley's about to get
wiped out in fifteen states plus American Samoa.
Speaker 6 (43:21):
Yeah, I mean, she might do well in Vermont, but
we'll wait and see. She didn't make issues. She's not
the first woman to ever win our Republican primary, so
she has that at least let's put on her head.
But the thing that we're looking forward to, I mean,
Trump did very well in the suburbs of Michigan surprisingly well.
I thought that Haley would probably break forty five percent
and a few of them, and she really didn't outside
(43:42):
of ann Arbor, which was surprising. So I'm going to
look at the Northern Virginia suburbs of DC to see
how they vote. It's a lot of government jobs, but
also the Richmond suburbs to see how they vote if
Trump's strong or not with them. I'm going to look
at to see in the Texas suburbs of Dallas, which
are trending blue every single solitary year they do. And
I'm also very importantly going to be looking at how
(44:03):
Hispanics vote in South Texas and in other Hispanic hubs
because Biden has been performing very badly with Hispanics in
the Democratic primaries, and that no one has really been
talking about. But turnout among the banks has not been
strong in support for Biden has been weaker overall among
Hispanics in the Democratic primary in the early States, even
in like New Hampshire, this is not very Hispanic, but
(44:24):
there's a few Hispanic precincts he performed worse in. So
those are really two things I'll be very very heavy
looking at what are the suburbs looking like and what
are the Hispanics in the Democratic primary you're looking like,
because those are two key constituencies that both menu to
do well with Ryan.
Speaker 4 (44:39):
Do you buy into the fact that Trump is up
right now? I know we the last time we talked
to you, you said you would pick Trump if the
election were then I'm assuming you'd pick Trump if the
election were today instead of Super Tuesday. Biden's saying the
polls aren't accurate, but I've also seen behind the scenes
and again, and you always you never argue the polls
are are inaccurate if you're doing well, and that is
(45:01):
a general consensus that there seems to be a great
deal of fear in Georgia and Arizona. I even saw
a top Democrat officials a few of them say, yeah,
we're kind of almost thinking about taking these states off
the board based on the numbers they're seeing, which would
mean Biden's only pathway is to, you know, get Wisconsin, Michigan,
and Pennsylvania again. But I wanted to ask you whether
(45:24):
you buy into that. And second part of that, Maine
is Maine in play? Is there a state that we
aren't talking about as a swing state Minnesota, Virginia. Is
there one that you could look at and say, hey,
maybe this one's in play. I think the seven or
eight that we talk about usually. Is there any other
state out there that's standing out to you?
Speaker 6 (45:44):
So it's important to remember that poles are not predictors
of the futures. There are snapshots of the president, so
things could change. But in the last since New Year's
there have been forty four poles and five nationwide poles,
and Biden has only led in six of them. That
is truly not only unprecedented for Biden and any Republican
(46:05):
against Trump, but any Republican really going back to two
thousand a. Bush was not leading in many early polls
in two thousand and four when he won the national vote.
So and state polls are starting to reflect that. There's
the den Moine Register ple today, which is the best polster.
An Feldzer is the best poster in America. She is
very rarely wrong. She had Trump up plus seven in
(46:26):
both sixteen and twenty in Iowa, and he won by eight.
Today's pole came out he is up by fifteen. And
the way people vote is people voting clusters Iowa is
not moving to the right, and have Minnesota and Wisconsin
maybe move to the left. They're all moving to the
right together. And if Iowa is going from an R
plus seventh state to an R plus fifteen state, that
(46:47):
is a Republican plus two national environment, that is a
Trump plus two national environment. Things are very, very very bad.
I mean, I know Biden has a lot of money
in the bank. Is about two hundred five million dollars
what I understand for the fall, But when voters have
an opinion that is fixated the way that Obama was
able to create the narrative around Mitt Romney months before
(47:10):
people even voted, there's really no shaking that. I don't
know many people unless they radically changes in our country,
which could happen a terrorist attack or war or whatever.
I don't see how people's opinions of Bride are going
to change to being a competent, serious person. And I
just think the news cycles are getting worse for me.
He just gave a promotion to that woman who was
(47:30):
in charge of leaving Afghanistan. I mean, which is I
was ulver for leaving Afghanism, but the way they did
it was a disaster. He doesn't. There's no real noticing
how bad things are, and they're still if they did,
if they really cared, something would be done on the
border right now. And nothing is being done on the
border right now, and that is testament to why they
how they think that they're not changing direction. And that's
(47:52):
a very bad place when you're that far behind in
so many national poles.
Speaker 2 (47:56):
What do you think, Ryan, if we could try to
surmise the top advisors around Biden and the people at
the very top of the DNC hierarchy, if we could
be in their smoke filled, you know, back room understanding
what they think is going to turn this around or
what their plan is. Do you know, do you have
(48:16):
a sense of what it would be or do you
think that the plan right now is they don't have
one because the plans are failing so far.
Speaker 6 (48:23):
Well. Their plan is that people are going to care
about democracy and think of January sixth and the election
is stolen. They even said so much yesterday in some
media report that no January sixth is going to get
us to election day victory. And with a certain voter demographic,
they are one hundred percent right. There are certain people
that think January six happened basically yesterday, and that democracy
(48:43):
and result. They're not wrong about that, but it is
a very luxury belief. It is a very bourgeois belief.
And as much as they can sit there and say that,
you know, the economy is doing so well, and in
some sectors it probably is, people are not feeling it
when they're going grocery shopping. Inflation is still on their mind.
Things that are not changing, and the border is becoming
a bigger and bigger issue. According to the latest poll
(49:05):
from I think it was the New York Times, it
was twenty percent and now say the border is their
number one issue, which is extremely high. It's higher than
the economy. And that is not a great place. That
was the Wall Street Journal rather there said that that
is not a great place to be in when your
biggest weakness of all polling is the number one issue.
And we are early, they're already admitting there's six million
(49:26):
more people. Are two million more people coming between now
and election day as they come into our cities like
Denver and New York, Boston, these places that are and
those are not in swing states, but Philadelphia, those places
are experiencing huge cuts their public sector health there if
they're acping explosion of homelessness as these stories of the
(49:47):
illegal alien and migrant crime keep coming up. There was
like nine big stories in the last week alone. Venezuela
allegedly emptied out their prisons to send their gang members here.
That is only going to make things worse for him,
and they seem not to even notice because they believe
there are enough white suburbanites who care enough about January
sixth to get them to election day. Maybe they're right,
(50:10):
but there is no hard indication in any of the
data showing that.
Speaker 1 (50:13):
Ryan.
Speaker 3 (50:14):
Do you buy it?
Speaker 4 (50:14):
I mentioned in a second ago quick hit here to
finish with you, Maine, Maine. Right now, I know they
divvy up their four electoral votes by congressional district. I
think gets one for each and then two overall. Right now,
they have Trump on the board, winning at least one
of those districts and potentially winning the state.
Speaker 6 (50:31):
Do you buy it if RFK is on the ballot?
I think so. Maine is the state that Pero almost won.
I think he lost Maine by one point back in
ninety two, and he did very well in ninety six.
Is a very independent thinking state. If they vote independence
their senators, and Gus King is an independent former governor
was an independent. It absolutely could be if rfk's on
the ballot. I don't think he's got ballot access, yeh,
(50:52):
but we'll have to wait and see first.
Speaker 4 (50:54):
Ryan, you kill it, we'll have you on quite a lot.
Good luck one more time. The candidate you're working for,
we'll let you give him at a poppy.
Speaker 6 (51:00):
Here text twenty six and the newsletters, the National popularst
newsletter on sub sex.
Speaker 1 (51:05):
Good stuff.
Speaker 4 (51:05):
Ryan Gardowski, he's got good energy. He's working down in Dallas,
working the poll It's impossible for me to say that
without thinking I've been a strip club. But a lot
of you out there working the polls. Maybe maybe you're
a little bit tired. Maybe you woke up, don't have
the same energy that you used to. It's the middle
of the week.
Speaker 1 (51:26):
You're starting to think.
Speaker 4 (51:27):
Ah, I don't even know if I'm gonna make it
to Friday. It's only Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (51:30):
It feels like it's Thursday already.
Speaker 4 (51:31):
Maybe you're gonna stay up late tonight watch some of
the results come in. Maybe you're gonna be watching college
basketball like me. Good game Perdue, Illinois, Great game maybe Alabama, Florida,
and you just don't have the energy when you wake
up in the morning. How much different would you feel
if you had twenty percent more energy? How about if
you had a little bit more vitality. Maybe your New
(51:55):
year's resolution has already kind of gone by the wayside
as we get into early March, maybe you need to
consider chalk. You don't want to look like Joe Biden
walking along on the border slow plotting. At any moment,
you might just fall over because you don't have the
energy to just take another step. Get hooked up today
(52:15):
with Chalk. They got a great offer for you. It's
madness not to consider it as we roll through March.
Speaker 1 (52:21):
Use my name Clay. You get hooked up Chalk is Choq.
Speaker 4 (52:25):
Get twenty percent more testosterone in your life, all natural
by just taking their chalk supplements again Choq, go check
it out. They also have female vitality stacks. They will
hook you up and you will be well on your
way to having the energy you need for twenty twenty
four to get through your day and have a little
bit left and in the tank. Get hooked up today
(52:47):
Chalk Choq. Use my name Clay.
Speaker 1 (52:50):
That's Chalk Cchoq check it out today Cheap Up with
Clay and Bucks campaign coverage with twenty four A Sunday
highlight reel from the week you did on
Speaker 4 (53:00):
The free iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
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