August 18, 2025 • 36 mins
Hour 1 of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show delivers an in-depth analysis of the high-stakes diplomacy surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war and the pivotal role of the United States in shaping the outcome. The hour begins with a breakdown of the Anchorage Summit in Alaska on Friday and the unprecedented gathering of European leaders at the White House today alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Clay and Buck explore the core question dominating global headlines: can there be a negotiated settlement or ceasefire? They argue that Russia’s primary objective remains territorial control, while Ukraine seeks ironclad security guarantees. The discussion draws historical parallels to the Korean Peninsula, suggesting that a demilitarized zone could be the most realistic path to peace, though such an arrangement presents enormous challenges.
The hosts emphasize the complexity of providing Ukraine with credible security assurances without triggering NATO-style obligations, which remain a red line for Vladimir Putin. They question the effectiveness of sanctions, citing historical failures in Iraq and Libya, and stress that sanctions alone cannot end the war. The conversation shifts to the brutal reality on the ground, describing World War I-style trench warfare updated with modern technology, including drones and fortified defensive lines. Casualty rates are staggering, and the conflict has become a war of attrition, with Russia willing to absorb heavy losses to achieve its goals.
Clay and Buck also highlight the shifting public opinion in Ukraine, where a majority now favors negotiations over fighting until victory, signaling widespread war fatigue. They underscore the enormous financial burden on the United States and Europe, with hundreds of billions already spent and projections nearing a trillion dollars. Against this backdrop, the hosts argue that Donald Trump is uniquely positioned to mediate a resolution, framing him as the only leader with the gravitas to broker a deal that could rival the most significant diplomatic achievements in modern history. The hour closes by acknowledging the broader geopolitical stakes, including breaking news on potential ceasefire developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict, and reiterates the urgent need for a sustainable peace that prioritizes American interests while ending the bloodshed.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome in Monday edition Clay Travis buck Sexton show. We
hope all of you had fabulous weekends. And boy, we
are jumping right into the deep end of the pool
with a major news day underway. We will discuss the
outcome of the Anchorage Summit, but already it is being
(00:21):
replaced by Zelenski on his way to the White House
along with many of the top leaders from throughout Europe.
This will be one of the largest collections of leaders
to ever visit the White House at one point in time.
Here is the list, European Commissioned President Ursula Vonderline. Well,
(00:42):
that's not a good one to start with. I have
no idea how to pronounce that last name, man wonder
lay In, is that right? Italian Prime Minister Georgia. Well, anyway, Italy, France, Britain,
Germany and Finland, along with the Secretary General of NATO,
all going to be participating in this huge meeting. And Buck,
(01:06):
let's just dive right into it because I think this
is the essence of the question. It seems to me,
and you sign off or you take issue with my
analysis here, it seems to me that we now have
a sense for what both sides want, And the question
is can there be some sort of negotiated settlement slash
(01:28):
cease fire. And I've got an idea of how this ends,
but I want to see if you sign on or
if you think it goes a different direction. The thing
that Israel, the thing that Israel, the thing that Russia
wants the most, is the province of Dnesku or Danosk
or however you pronounce it. And it seems quite clear
that that is their primary aim here, and they have
(01:51):
about eighty percent of it so far, and they want
one hundred percent of it.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
Right now.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Ukraine is saying we will not give up any land.
I understand that argument. I think that is past. There
is no world in which Ukraine does not have to
give up land. The question is how much. What Ukraine
most wants is some form of security guarantee. And it
seems to me that there is a resolution of this
(02:20):
conflict that would potentially look something like what happened with
North and South Korea. I don't know that you have
a demilitarized zone necessarily, but we still have a ton
of troops in South Korea. Technically that war has never
really ended, but we provided security guarantees, and as a
result there is a sort of a tenuous piece that
(02:43):
is now extended for multiple generations. That feels to me
like the most likely outcome here. Ukraine gets some form
of security guarantee, Russia gets more of the Ukrainian land,
and we have a tenuous peace that is put in
place with security guarantee in some way trying to act
(03:03):
as a major point of dissuading Russia from ever invading
more parts of Ukraine going forward. Do you sign off
on that idea, that framework in general. If not, what
do you think needs to be added to the equation?
Speaker 3 (03:19):
Yes, we now know after the meeting with Trump and
putin which I saw, of course, a lot of people
in the media who are anti Trump were rushing to say, see,
they don't have a deal. There wasn't going to be
a deal because Ukraine's not there. It's about laying the
groundwork for a deal. This is the biggest, nastiest, most
horrible conflict military conflict in the world right now. It
(03:42):
is not something that you can just snap your fingers
and it goes away. Trump is trying to bring this
to a conclusion. If he does so, it will be
the most successful act of diplomacy from an American president
in I don't know, Clay, since Reagan bringing down the
Berlin Wall and ending the Cold War. I mean, really
you have to go back quite nothing Clinton did, nothing
(04:05):
Bush did, certainly nothing Obama did, and Biden wasn't even
really president as we know. So this is high stakes,
the highest stakes. And yes, you're right, this is really
what it comes down to. You have the Ukrainians who
don't want to seed even more territories than the Russians
currently have, and that's what's so what the Russian demand
is right now is we want everything we've got and
(04:28):
then some to stop this war. That's what's come out
of this sit down with Trump and putin. The Ukrainian
demand is, look, before we can even say we'll give
you anything, we.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
Need to know that this is really it. You know.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
It's a little bit like if you're being blackmailed, what's
the big question for somebody? And this is a form
of blackmail in a sense, this invasion, right, the big
question is, Okay, if I give you a bag of money,
is this the last bag of money or are you
going to show up every six months demanding more? Is
Russia going to just think this is a pause and
(05:00):
then they can take.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
More of Ukraine.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
That's where the security guarantees come in, now, Clay, the
challenge on the security guarantee front is that starts to
sound a lot like NATO Article five to people, which
is a huge red line for Putin and has been
all along and I think for a lot of Americans
too would be Hold on a second. So now, if
Russia does decide to go more, we are going to
(05:23):
you know, send in troops or we are going to
be military. Now I'm sure what's happening is it's going
to be European partners, you know, financial and economic sanctions arrayed.
The problem though, is that that's not enough. And this
is something that we've all seen over and over again.
Sanctions are a tool. They are not an answer. They
were not an answer in a rock with Saddam Hussein.
(05:45):
They were not an answer with well, the Kadafi thing,
there's a whole bunch of stuff we could say about that,
but sanctions alone, because he was actually going in our
direction when we decided to topple when you know, the Clinton,
the Obama Clinton apparatus decided to topple him, but sanctions
alone don't just end things for you. So Clay, this
is where this is where the detailed negotiations really matter.
(06:08):
You know, what is a security guarantee? What security guarantee
for Ukraine is sufficient other than we will put US
troops in harm's way or US troops will be the cavalry.
If after this deal Russia decides to restart hostilities, I
don't see us doing that.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
I don't think we should do that.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
And so then is what's a realistic security guarantee for
a country that the UK Russia and America all promised
when it gave up its nukes big mistake, we will
guarantee your security forty years ago or whatever it was.
So this is tough stuff.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
I'm sympathetic for Ukraine because, as you hit on, it's
not that they're concerned about necessarily how this conflict resolves.
It's that the last decade plus of Russian behavior has
shown them that they never stop. They always want another
bite at the apple. And I believe ukraine position is
(07:05):
we have a very strong defensive works and if we
give up this particular part of our country, that is
going to gum up the apparatus to allow us to
have a strong defensive line going forward, to say nothing
of the fact that Ukraine believes this is their line,
that it's it's their territory and they don't want to
give it up. So and I just think this has
(07:27):
turned into this has turned into to really understand, and
I've been over the weekend. I was kind of going
through as much of the more detailed analysis of this
as I could.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
Clay, this is.
Speaker 3 (07:41):
World War One trench warfare with drones and satellite communications.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
That's where we are. So you have a.
Speaker 3 (07:50):
Very detailed I mean, the Wall Street Journal had this
layout of the fortifications. They have a six layer fortification
barrier and and everyone's saying, you know, kind of like
a magian No line, which of course does not Historically
the French magin No line did not work out well.
But this one is being specifically built to be anti
tank as well in nature. So the way the journal
(08:13):
laid it out, they've got barbed wire and metal coils
that are low viz, low visibility to intentionally entrap it
ensnare Russian not just armor, but the Russians have been
using motorbikes to try to just break through small areas
in the lines. Then it's an anti tank ditch. Then
it is anti vehicle barriers they call Dragon's teeth, these
(08:36):
cement pyramids that they're putting down.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
All of you who are GWAT veterans.
Speaker 3 (08:39):
Remember the Hesco barriers, Jersey barriers, Hesco bear huge thing
was these cement, big cement blocks, essentially to stop vehicle
born improvise explosive devices. Then there's a second anti tank
ditch clay, and then a third anti tank ditch with mines,
and then a six layer of additional barbed wire and
metal coil.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
So this is very reminiscent of the trenches in the
First World War.
Speaker 3 (09:06):
It's just higher technology and they have to be very
cognizant of these drones, these anti personnel drones that are
coming down at you from the sky right. So it's
almost like artillery rounds, but they're smart rounds in that
someone is using a camera to find you and get you.
And it is brutal warfare. A lot of people are
(09:27):
being caught up in the coils and the wire and
then they wait and then a drone circling overhead and
the drone comes in and blows them up.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
Trump said, And I don't know how accurate. This is
because sometimes casualties get conflated with deaths. Trump said twenty
thousand Russian troops died in July. Again, that is the
most recent number that I've heard publicly out there. Now,
maybe it's twenty thousand casualties, because again, sometimes those numbers
get used in fluctuating ways. I think it's clear that
(09:58):
hundreds of thousands of people have been severely injured and
or killed on both sides of this of this fight
so far, and so really I do think the benefit
of the meeting in Russia is sorry with Russia in
Anchorage is we now know I think somewhat what Putin wants,
(10:22):
and a lot of people are focused on, well, we
didn't get an immediate ceasefire, and I understand that that
would be better in theory, but really the goal is peace.
It's not a ceasefire, and so Ukraine's gonna have to
give up land and there's going to have to be
some sort of security guarantee that is put in place.
I think the big the asterisk though play is we
know what Putin wants now, and I think that's where
(10:46):
there's a big stumbling block here for Ukraine. That's what
gets in the security guarantees, if they could be certain
that the territory that Russia already has maybe plus a
little bit, would be the end of this.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
That's one thing.
Speaker 3 (10:58):
I think that they feel that this war has been
going on not just since the major invasion, but before that,
the Russian Meskarovka, the Deception War, the oh there's some
separatists who are all just Russians being ordered out of Moscow,
that it would be a ceasefire and then give it
some time, and then the Russians breakthrough again, right because
(11:20):
why not? And so I think that's where this becomes
really hard. You have to be damn sure on the
Ukrainian side, and Zelensky does that whatever the concessions are,
it'll be like North and South Korea, where you're not
just going to punch through that line and do whatever
you want afterwards. And that's been going on for a long.
Speaker 1 (11:40):
Time, which is why I think maybe a solution yere
is some form of demilitarized zone. I know it's more
complicated because no one lives in the demilitarized zone and
this would theoretically be places where people have been living,
but that seems to me the best way to potentially
solve it.
Speaker 3 (11:57):
It's basically what they're building. I mean, when you're talking
about the expansive it's hundreds of miles of these fortifications Clay.
Really it's World War One reducts in that sense. I mean,
this is not it's not a few places where they're
dug in. They're dug in along an entire front of
hundreds of miles. So yeah, it's crazy. It's crazy what
they have built. That's what this that's what this war
(12:19):
has turned into. So this is it's very tough stuff.
I still have a lot of faith, you know, I
even think it's the wrong thing to say, because I
heard Marco Rubio talking about this over the weekend. It's
not just I have faith that if anyone can get
this done, it's Trump. The only person who can get
this done is Donald Trump. And that is that is
not some Trump worship thing. That is the truth. The
(12:40):
only person who could bring this together at this point
in time, who has the gravitas, who's in a position
to bring this horrible war that's killing hundreds of thousands
of people to an end, is Donald Trump. And I
just say that because everyone.
Speaker 4 (12:55):
Especially Ukraine flag waving Slava, Ukraine, America and Europeans should
be rooting for maximum success here and anything short of that,
I think is a really.
Speaker 3 (13:07):
Ugly manifestation of trumpet arrangement syndrome. We'll get into more
of this. We'll take your calls on this as well.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
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Speaker 2 (14:05):
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Speaker 2 (14:20):
Welcome back into Clay and Buck.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
High stakes diplomacy going on today at the White House.
We have some really important stuff underway here. European leaders
are are they well, they're set to arrive. I believe
they've arrived. Zelenski is supposed to be arriving at the
White House run one pm. And so while we are
on air with you today, you will have the other piece.
(14:43):
The first piece of this was putin Trump Trump's top team,
so Rubio Hegseth in Alaska. But the other part of this,
the other necessary part of this is the other party
to a possible deal, Ukraine and really the European and
that comes together today. So we will have Trump in
(15:04):
the Oval Office with Zelenski. I don't think anyone's going
to be able to say there's a deal done today either.
Just to manage expectations, this is to get down on paper,
so to speak, what the Ukrainian needs are in this
situation and what the Europeans are going to do in
order to ensure that.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
That's happening here.
Speaker 3 (15:24):
Secretary of State Rubio, this is cut too on why
Zelenski is up today at the White House.
Speaker 5 (15:29):
Whether it's in business, or in politics or in geopolitics,
the only way to reach a deal is for each
side to get something and each side to give something,
and that's been very difficult. If it was easy, this
wouldn't have been going on for three and a half years. Understand,
the longer these wars go on, the harder they are
to end, unfortunately, because one side is always looking for
leverage on the other, in this particular case, the Russian
(15:50):
side as well. And so I think that's the core
of what we're trying to work through here. That's why
Zelenski's coming tomorrow. That's why European leaders are coming tomorrow.
That's why the President called them from the airplane, spent
two hours in the middle of the night talking to them,
and that's why we've been engaged with them every step
of the way. Is we are trying to find what
can we get to that both sides can agree on,
and it's been difficult. This is a hard issue set.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
It is difficult and clay.
Speaker 3 (16:16):
There's also the added emotional component of this for leaders
on both sides. I know people say, well, Putin's a
sociopath and he doesn't care at all. I think he
cares about Russia. I think he does at some level
care about the Russian people. He thinks this is the
right thing to do. I think it's evil and wrong,
but you know, this is what he has decided to do.
The sunk costs of this, clay, the casualties, the blood
(16:40):
and treasure spent. Both sides want to get the maximum
they can. You know this is not a minor thing
for them.
Speaker 1 (16:48):
No, and I mean it's just I come back again
and again to what is the benefit at all for Russia.
I understand that Putin finds the humiliate of the Soviet
Empire to be unacceptable and seize this as traditional Soviet lands.
I don't think if he had been able to look
(17:08):
into the future and know that hundreds of thousands of
Russians were going to be killed, I don't think he
would have thought that this was a worthy decision to make.
I think he expected that the Russian Army would take
over all of Ukraine very rapidly, and there would be
some sort of negotiated satellite state that Russia basically would control,
(17:29):
and that has not happened, to the credit of the
Ukrainian Imagine. Imagine if his initial Blitzkrig, which we were
reporting on together here on the show three years ago,
was successful. They took they took Kiev, and Zelenski fled
the country and it was just okay, unconditional surrender. He
would be up there in the Russian mines with the
greatest Russian leaders of all time. Unfortunately, that's not what
(17:52):
happened for everybody. Yeah, and I think he expected that
to happen.
Speaker 3 (17:56):
Yeah, just because the casualties have gotten so much higher
than anybody would have anticipated. I think at that point,
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Speaker 2 (18:15):
Bringing jobs back to our cities.
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Speaker 1 (18:57):
Welcome back in, Clay, Travis buck Sexton. Shit, all of
the European leaders are arriving exactly right now as we
are speaking to all of you walking into the White House.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
I think one way that is the.
Speaker 1 (19:14):
Easiest to kind of explain Trump's perspective here, and I
think some of you will understand it because you may
have been through it before is before you end up
in a courtroom. Almost all major disputes go to mediation,
and Trump is effectively the mediator. And I know that
(19:38):
everybody wants immediate outcome, But for those of you who
have not been to a mediation before, both parties are
in different rooms and sometimes it's in the same venue
other times. Now with technology, it's basically set up on
a zoom call or whatever it might be, and you
have a mediator going back and forth constantly trying to
(20:03):
figure out a way to get a solution to the problem.
And so I think that's the easiest way to kind
of structurally think about what exactly is going on. From
the Trump perspective, the United States effectively is the mediator here.
We are trying to bring peace, and I do believe
(20:23):
we have a little bit better idea after the face
to face meeting what Putin wants, what his most desired
outcomes are, where he might be able to give, And
I think the same thing is true after today, we
will have a better sense for exactly what Ukraine's so
called red lines are, what is and what is not acceptable,
(20:45):
And as anyone who has ever been involved in a
mediation knows. It is often very unsettling because nobody gets
everything that they want.
Speaker 2 (20:56):
Nobody get.
Speaker 1 (20:57):
Ukraine wants Russia to put down their arms and even say, hey,
you know what, that boundaries in place for a reason,
we never should have invaded your territory. We apologize, We're
going to go back to Russia. We'll just pretend the
last three and a half years never happen. And Russia
wants for multiple parts of Ukraine, certainly the parts that
(21:18):
it has taken so far to become a part of
the Russian homeland as a part of the Russian territory.
And so to me, Buck, I think the most difficult
question for the United States is what exactly is our
role going forward? Because right now we can be a
neutral arbiter. We are effectively the mediator. We are Switzerland
(21:40):
in this respect. But going forward, what sort of security
guarantees will we be a part of enforcing. And remember
this was a big part of the mineral rights. The
whole aspect of Ukraine giving up their mineral rights, which
turned into a big issue in the White House earlier
this year, was that the United States, when it has
(22:02):
a property interest in Ukraine assets in theory, is more
likely to protect those assets. That's the gamble that effectively
Ukraine made in giving up some of the purported value
of their mineral rights. And that's why I keep coming
back to the Korea situation. Seems to me the best
historical analogy at this point.
Speaker 3 (22:23):
I hope for you have CNN's Harry Anson here. I
think this is worth noting as well because there are
Democrats in Congress, for example, Senators and some Republicans Lindsay
Graham are very hawkish on we need to do whatever
we need to do to get Ukraine to victory. And
(22:45):
the challenge here is that victory for Ukraine would mean
pushing It's not just holding what it has now. It
would mean pushing Russia out of where it currently is,
and I think there's no chance whatsoever that that is
going to happen. So Ranians are getting weary of this
fight as well. This is what the data says. To
CNN's Harry Enton, play five.
Speaker 6 (23:08):
Ukrainians on the war versus Russia. You go back to
twenty twenty two, to the start of the war, fight
until Ukraine wins. Look at this, the vast majority, about
three quarters seventy three percent agreed with that position, negotiate
to end the war as soon as possible, only twenty
two percent.
Speaker 2 (23:21):
Look at where we are now, it's a complete flip.
It's the inverse.
Speaker 6 (23:24):
Now, sixty nine percent want to negotiate to end the
war as soon as possible, compared to just twenty four
percent who want to fight until Ukraine wins. That's a
forty nine point drop in this position. Now, of course,
negotiating to end the war as soon as possible, that's
a bit more nuanced. Right, Ukrainians don't want to agree
to all of Russia's demand, But I think the idea
of even there being some territory that would be not
formally recognized as being given that Russia could in fact
(23:47):
stay and that does have a majority sport. But the
idea of formal recognition of Russia's man's absolutely not clay.
Speaker 3 (23:54):
This is the challenge when you're dealing with the Russian
military is you have to be you have to be
ready for the fact that they will make blunders. They
will do things that make it seem like there's tremendous
incompetence in the ranks of leadership. They will make big mistakes,
(24:14):
but they will keep the meat grinder of Russian casualties going.
And you know, I think historically, and we could get
into this another time maybe, like the Russian psychology around
warfare is whatever it takes, however many it takes, and
they have a lot more people than Ukraine. So if
you're in a World War One trench warfare style setup,
(24:37):
which is effectively what they are, this is trench warfare
two point zero on the Ukraine front. If that's where
things are, you're also in a war of attrition, which
you know, I find the First World War both fascinating
and horrifying right when you read about the history of it,
and any of you who haven't seen it, just as
in a side to get a sense of what it
was like, that movie All Quiet on the Western Front
(24:59):
the Netflix put out is a fantastic movie.
Speaker 2 (25:02):
Harrowing.
Speaker 3 (25:02):
I mean, it's not it's not like a pleasant watch
in that sense, but it really shows you what trench
warfare in the First World War was like. And now
we're in a place where the casualties are mounting, but
Russia can afford far higher casualties in the Ukrainians, and
because there's no political mechanism of pressure on Putin, really
(25:23):
no internal political mechanism of pressure.
Speaker 2 (25:25):
He just keeps it going.
Speaker 3 (25:27):
And this is when you're up against autocracy, and Russia
is an autocracy.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
We understand that when you're up against an autocracy.
Speaker 3 (25:34):
This is one of the challenges democracies have to care
about body counts. Whether you think Ukraine is truly democracy
or not, I know he but Ukrainian people certainly they
think that they should have more of a voice in
this than what you have with the Russians. Autocrats can
just feed people into the meat grinder until they decide enough,
until they decide enough is enough. And that's where putin
(25:54):
I think Clay has positioned himself.
Speaker 1 (25:56):
Yeah, and again I think the Trump mediator role also
then becomes how involved does the United States get? And
I do think I know everybody wants to pretend that
we're not involved. I still think the fact that we're
giving almost all the weapons that are being used to
kill the Russians, it's.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
Kind of a big deal.
Speaker 1 (26:17):
I mean, right, I mean, I know nobody really wants
to talk about it. But if you are constantly giving
someone weapons that they're using to kill other people, at
some point in time, most people would see that as
you being an accessory. I mean, this is the entire
argument about Iran's involvement with Hezbola, Iran's involvement with Hamas,
(26:39):
Iran's involvement with the UTIs and so many other different
terror groups. It's that they fund the weaponry that allows
them to execute the terrorism. If I lived in Russia,
the idea that the United States is claiming that it
is in some way not involved when every weapon that
is basically being used to kill Russian troops is produced
(27:02):
and provided by the United States by and large, I
know there's some European assistants weapon wise, I would find
that hard to accept. And so when I think about
what the security agreement's going to look like, Buck, We've
provided a certain level of securitized in a securitization to
Ukraine already, so boots on the ground is a little
(27:24):
bit different. But when you're providing all of the weapons,
I do think it's hard to say, well, the United
States a completely unbiased participant non combatant here.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
You know, there's I don't think enough of this part
of the Soviet Afghan War that is in the public consciousness,
because you know, everyone's seeing Charlie Wilson's war pretty much,
very slick, a little glib, but it's it's a good movie,
it's a good watch, but it glides over some stuff.
You had about a million Afghans killed in that war,
(27:57):
and the upper estimate is more like two million. A
million people dead in that from all kinds of Soviet
you know, everything, the enemy fire and.
Speaker 1 (28:10):
A lesson maybe that we should have thought of before
we went into Afghanistan, by the way, like in recent
history about that place basically being unconquerable or the.
Speaker 3 (28:19):
Lesson that too British wars in that region learned very painfully,
or Alexander the Great learned very painfully, or go down
the list. It's just an ungovernable region for a whole
bunch of reasons. Really, the topography is a huge part
of it. And having seen that topography, especially when you
get up in a helicopter and you see Afghanistan, You're like,
(28:41):
how's anyone going to control this place? Place is wild,
very hard to control. You know, I was This is
I know, quite an aside, but I was just an
Apalachically it's very hard to control mountain people who don't
want to be controlled, especially in a pre computer, pre
industrial age. So that's something that all over the world,
all throughout history, whether you're in Scotland or you're in
(29:02):
Southeast Asia, people who live in the mountains tend to
tell the government to you know, to leave, you know,
bleep off if you will. But back to the casualty
rates here. This is why you know, early on, I
mean I kept saying, and I'm remembering this because there
was a tremendous ebulliance once. And to be clear, I
don't wish that Putin had taken, you know, the capital
(29:24):
of the Ukraine and cut the country in half. I'm
just saying I just wish the war had ed it
a long time ago. Like one way or another, this
thing being over would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives.
That would have been a better outcome, I think, given
all the people who are now killed. And you're talking
about the switch of territory, switching territory in areas where
you know, Russia is not Nazi Germany. Okay, they're not
(29:46):
going to exterminate all the Russian speaking peoples in these
areas or something. You're talking about Russian federation versus Ukrainian
control at the end of the day, and you know
they're not. The Russians are not going to be operating
death camps for they're not. They'd certainly not do it
in Crimea, which they took, right, So I think we
have to also keep that into context here. We're not
(30:08):
trying to hold back the Russian Federation from committing genocide
against the civilian population once it has control. I don't
think that's going to happen at all. There are a
lot of Russian speaking peoples.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
In the East.
Speaker 3 (30:20):
This never gets talked about, but I've actually known some
of them. I've known Ukrainian Russian speaking Ukrainians Clay who
actually would this is this is like, I know this
is a traitorous comment to the Slava Ukrainian, but there
are some people in the Far East who would rather
be a part of the Russian Federation. They see it
as a much more powerful country with much better long
term prospects. That is reality too, right, So I think
(30:42):
that has to be taken into camp when we're negotiating this.
It's not are you going to be in East Berlin
or West Berlin?
Speaker 1 (30:49):
Uh, It's it's not North and South Korea, like you
can't leave North Korea, right, I mean, we want to
continue to have ingress and egress outside of these countries
going forward.
Speaker 3 (30:59):
I mean the perfect example this would be look at Crimea.
Are you hearing stories about you know, death camps in
Crimea for the Russian speaking, No, Russians control it now.
They have Russian passports and it's kind of business as
usual in a lot of ways over there.
Speaker 4 (31:14):
Now.
Speaker 3 (31:14):
I'm not trying to be flipping about it, but that's
what's gone on there. That is the outcome that we
really want to see. To stop the carnage in eastern Ukraine,
Russian Federation takes over. I know it's you know, upsetting
to a lot of people in Ukraine, a lot of Ukrainians.
But if they don't like that as the end state,
they have to come up with what's the better answer,
And we, the American people have to always in the
(31:36):
background be thinking America first. We just want this thing
to end. That's the most important thing. We don't want
this conflict to continue on. It is bad for humanity,
it is bad for business. It is bad for.
Speaker 2 (31:47):
Us because we are funding this thing.
Speaker 3 (31:49):
I think I said when it started it'll end up
costing a trillion dollars. I think Clay when you look
at the European and American cost in this, it will
be pretty close to that. When all's said and done,
it's already in the hundreds of billions. We're already on
the hook for I think two hundred billion on this.
So we are not just bystanders trying to bring about
an end. We're also very much incentivized for that end
(32:11):
to happen.
Speaker 1 (32:14):
No doubt, we'll take some of your calls, by the way,
your reactions, and a lot more as this is ongoing.
And keep in mind, we don't know exactly how this
is going to go. Remember the last time Zolensky, I believe,
visited the White House, it kind of got some fireworks.
So we may have to break in, we may have
press conferences. We don't expect again all the European leaders
in the White House right now, Zolinski there. We will
(32:36):
see how all of this continues to play out. But
wanted to tell you as we're breaking down all of
this ongoing news. Nine to eleven more than a day
in history. It's a day still taking lives. We remember
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(32:57):
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the Towers nine to eleven Institute is writing that wrong
by helping teachers educate kids and grades K through twelve
with nonfiction resources. That's full curriculum units, scripted lessons, activities,
(33:21):
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Donate eleven dollars a month to Tunnel of the Towers at
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(33:43):
t dot org.
Speaker 6 (33:49):
Clay Travison, Buck Sexton, telling it like it is.
Speaker 1 (33:52):
Find them on the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you
get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (33:57):
All right, welcome back into Clay and Buck. Everybody.
Speaker 3 (33:59):
It is is a big day at the White House.
Speaker 2 (34:02):
You've got European leaders.
Speaker 3 (34:03):
Vladimir Zelenski of Ukraine, Donald Trump his top team sitting
down trying to solve the biggest in terms of casualties,
in terms of men in materiel, the biggest conflict in
the world right now, and we will bring you updates
on this. We're also obviously very much watching what's going
on in Israel and in Gaza.
Speaker 7 (34:24):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (34:24):
There seems to be some possible breaking news there.
Speaker 3 (34:28):
Do we haven't confirmed yet about well got.
Speaker 1 (34:31):
And Hamas has evidently agreed to some of the terms
in terms of a cease fire and a prisoner exchange,
and we haven't heard Israel's response. So a lot of
different big stories in geopolitics happening in real time right now.
Speaker 3 (34:44):
You want to talk about boosting the I mean not
that everything's about the economy, but sort of boosting the
global economy. We end that war, you know, the Israel
finishes the job, ends that war, this war in Ukraine
comes to a conclusion. The world could be at peace.
Actually it could happen for a while here at least
most the major conflicts. Let's take James in North Carolina.
What's going on, James?
Speaker 8 (35:04):
Yes, good afternoon you guys.
Speaker 2 (35:07):
Yes, yeah, fire away, we got you.
Speaker 8 (35:09):
Yep. Yes. I was a student of the Limball advanced
conservative studies, and one of the things that Rush definitely
said was there's some exceptions, but for the most part,
until there's a decisive victory, you know, there's just no peace.
Speaker 3 (35:24):
That may be the case here, and that's that's the challenge,
that's the problem. Remember in World War One, the decisive
victory only came with American intervention. So that's a little
bit of a scary Uh. That's a that's not necessarily
the historical parallel we want to be citing.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
I also think buck the calendar matters here. We've talked
about this a little bit, but the weather is so
brutal in the winter there that moving men and materiel
becomes very difficult. So and the winter obviously hits faster
in Ukraine than it does here, So you're only talking
about a fighting season of two and a half three
more months at this point too.
Speaker 2 (36:01):
Mike, in Massachusetts, we got about forty seconds go for.
Speaker 7 (36:04):
It, okay, real quick. One of the things that I
don't think you guys have mentioned is how China fits
into this equation and how they have essentially been a
bulwark for the Russian economy when this whole thing started.
I think one of the objectives of the Europeans and
probably the Democrats here was their hatred of Putin was
(36:26):
a driving force, and thinking we would bleed Russia dry
eventually and that Putin would basically be overthrown a dozen
seem to be playing out.
Speaker 1 (36:35):
It's a great point, Buck, and we should talk about
the China impact also the economic side on the backside
of this. When we come back, second hour, good quality,
good call, we'll discuss.
Speaker 3 (36:45):
We'll dive well, no, we'll dive into that because remember,
the sanctions were supposed to destroy the Russian economy.
Speaker 2 (36:50):
That's what they said three years ago. Not even close.
We'll talk about why
Welcome in Monday edition Clay Travis buck Sexton show. We
hope all of you had fabulous weekends. And boy, we
are jumping right into the deep end of the pool
with a major news day underway. We will discuss the
outcome of the Anchorage Summit, but already it is being
(00:21):
replaced by Zelenski on his way to the White House
along with many of the top leaders from throughout Europe.
This will be one of the largest collections of leaders
to ever visit the White House at one point in time.
Here is the list, European Commissioned President Ursula Vonderline. Well,
(00:42):
that's not a good one to start with. I have
no idea how to pronounce that last name, man wonder
lay In, is that right? Italian Prime Minister Georgia. Well, anyway, Italy, France, Britain,
Germany and Finland, along with the Secretary General of NATO,
all going to be participating in this huge meeting. And Buck,
(01:06):
let's just dive right into it because I think this
is the essence of the question. It seems to me,
and you sign off or you take issue with my
analysis here, it seems to me that we now have
a sense for what both sides want, And the question
is can there be some sort of negotiated settlement slash
(01:28):
cease fire. And I've got an idea of how this ends,
but I want to see if you sign on or
if you think it goes a different direction. The thing
that Israel, the thing that Israel, the thing that Russia
wants the most, is the province of Dnesku or Danosk
or however you pronounce it. And it seems quite clear
that that is their primary aim here, and they have
(01:51):
about eighty percent of it so far, and they want
one hundred percent of it.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
Right now.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Ukraine is saying we will not give up any land.
I understand that argument. I think that is past. There
is no world in which Ukraine does not have to
give up land. The question is how much. What Ukraine
most wants is some form of security guarantee. And it
seems to me that there is a resolution of this
(02:20):
conflict that would potentially look something like what happened with
North and South Korea. I don't know that you have
a demilitarized zone necessarily, but we still have a ton
of troops in South Korea. Technically that war has never
really ended, but we provided security guarantees, and as a
result there is a sort of a tenuous piece that
(02:43):
is now extended for multiple generations. That feels to me
like the most likely outcome here. Ukraine gets some form
of security guarantee, Russia gets more of the Ukrainian land,
and we have a tenuous peace that is put in
place with security guarantee in some way trying to act
(03:03):
as a major point of dissuading Russia from ever invading
more parts of Ukraine going forward. Do you sign off
on that idea, that framework in general. If not, what
do you think needs to be added to the equation?
Speaker 3 (03:19):
Yes, we now know after the meeting with Trump and
putin which I saw, of course, a lot of people
in the media who are anti Trump were rushing to say, see,
they don't have a deal. There wasn't going to be
a deal because Ukraine's not there. It's about laying the
groundwork for a deal. This is the biggest, nastiest, most
horrible conflict military conflict in the world right now. It
(03:42):
is not something that you can just snap your fingers
and it goes away. Trump is trying to bring this
to a conclusion. If he does so, it will be
the most successful act of diplomacy from an American president
in I don't know, Clay, since Reagan bringing down the
Berlin Wall and ending the Cold War. I mean, really
you have to go back quite nothing Clinton did, nothing
(04:05):
Bush did, certainly nothing Obama did, and Biden wasn't even
really president as we know. So this is high stakes,
the highest stakes. And yes, you're right, this is really
what it comes down to. You have the Ukrainians who
don't want to seed even more territories than the Russians
currently have, and that's what's so what the Russian demand
is right now is we want everything we've got and
(04:28):
then some to stop this war. That's what's come out
of this sit down with Trump and putin. The Ukrainian
demand is, look, before we can even say we'll give
you anything, we.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
Need to know that this is really it. You know.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
It's a little bit like if you're being blackmailed, what's
the big question for somebody? And this is a form
of blackmail in a sense, this invasion, right, the big
question is, Okay, if I give you a bag of money,
is this the last bag of money or are you
going to show up every six months demanding more? Is
Russia going to just think this is a pause and
(05:00):
then they can take.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
More of Ukraine.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
That's where the security guarantees come in, now, Clay, the
challenge on the security guarantee front is that starts to
sound a lot like NATO Article five to people, which
is a huge red line for Putin and has been
all along and I think for a lot of Americans
too would be Hold on a second. So now, if
Russia does decide to go more, we are going to
(05:23):
you know, send in troops or we are going to
be military. Now I'm sure what's happening is it's going
to be European partners, you know, financial and economic sanctions arrayed.
The problem though, is that that's not enough. And this
is something that we've all seen over and over again.
Sanctions are a tool. They are not an answer. They
were not an answer in a rock with Saddam Hussein.
(05:45):
They were not an answer with well, the Kadafi thing,
there's a whole bunch of stuff we could say about that,
but sanctions alone, because he was actually going in our
direction when we decided to topple when you know, the Clinton,
the Obama Clinton apparatus decided to topple him, but sanctions
alone don't just end things for you. So Clay, this
is where this is where the detailed negotiations really matter.
(06:08):
You know, what is a security guarantee? What security guarantee
for Ukraine is sufficient other than we will put US
troops in harm's way or US troops will be the cavalry.
If after this deal Russia decides to restart hostilities, I
don't see us doing that.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
I don't think we should do that.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
And so then is what's a realistic security guarantee for
a country that the UK Russia and America all promised
when it gave up its nukes big mistake, we will
guarantee your security forty years ago or whatever it was.
So this is tough stuff.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
I'm sympathetic for Ukraine because, as you hit on, it's
not that they're concerned about necessarily how this conflict resolves.
It's that the last decade plus of Russian behavior has
shown them that they never stop. They always want another
bite at the apple. And I believe ukraine position is
(07:05):
we have a very strong defensive works and if we
give up this particular part of our country, that is
going to gum up the apparatus to allow us to
have a strong defensive line going forward, to say nothing
of the fact that Ukraine believes this is their line,
that it's it's their territory and they don't want to
give it up. So and I just think this has
(07:27):
turned into this has turned into to really understand, and
I've been over the weekend. I was kind of going
through as much of the more detailed analysis of this
as I could.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
Clay, this is.
Speaker 3 (07:41):
World War One trench warfare with drones and satellite communications.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
That's where we are. So you have a.
Speaker 3 (07:50):
Very detailed I mean, the Wall Street Journal had this
layout of the fortifications. They have a six layer fortification
barrier and and everyone's saying, you know, kind of like
a magian No line, which of course does not Historically
the French magin No line did not work out well.
But this one is being specifically built to be anti
tank as well in nature. So the way the journal
(08:13):
laid it out, they've got barbed wire and metal coils
that are low viz, low visibility to intentionally entrap it
ensnare Russian not just armor, but the Russians have been
using motorbikes to try to just break through small areas
in the lines. Then it's an anti tank ditch. Then
it is anti vehicle barriers they call Dragon's teeth, these
(08:36):
cement pyramids that they're putting down.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
All of you who are GWAT veterans.
Speaker 3 (08:39):
Remember the Hesco barriers, Jersey barriers, Hesco bear huge thing
was these cement, big cement blocks, essentially to stop vehicle
born improvise explosive devices. Then there's a second anti tank
ditch clay, and then a third anti tank ditch with mines,
and then a six layer of additional barbed wire and
metal coil.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
So this is very reminiscent of the trenches in the
First World War.
Speaker 3 (09:06):
It's just higher technology and they have to be very
cognizant of these drones, these anti personnel drones that are
coming down at you from the sky right. So it's
almost like artillery rounds, but they're smart rounds in that
someone is using a camera to find you and get you.
And it is brutal warfare. A lot of people are
(09:27):
being caught up in the coils and the wire and
then they wait and then a drone circling overhead and
the drone comes in and blows them up.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
Trump said, And I don't know how accurate. This is
because sometimes casualties get conflated with deaths. Trump said twenty
thousand Russian troops died in July. Again, that is the
most recent number that I've heard publicly out there. Now,
maybe it's twenty thousand casualties, because again, sometimes those numbers
get used in fluctuating ways. I think it's clear that
(09:58):
hundreds of thousands of people have been severely injured and
or killed on both sides of this of this fight
so far, and so really I do think the benefit
of the meeting in Russia is sorry with Russia in
Anchorage is we now know I think somewhat what Putin wants,
(10:22):
and a lot of people are focused on, well, we
didn't get an immediate ceasefire, and I understand that that
would be better in theory, but really the goal is peace.
It's not a ceasefire, and so Ukraine's gonna have to
give up land and there's going to have to be
some sort of security guarantee that is put in place.
I think the big the asterisk though play is we
know what Putin wants now, and I think that's where
(10:46):
there's a big stumbling block here for Ukraine. That's what
gets in the security guarantees, if they could be certain
that the territory that Russia already has maybe plus a
little bit, would be the end of this.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
That's one thing.
Speaker 3 (10:58):
I think that they feel that this war has been
going on not just since the major invasion, but before that,
the Russian Meskarovka, the Deception War, the oh there's some
separatists who are all just Russians being ordered out of Moscow,
that it would be a ceasefire and then give it
some time, and then the Russians breakthrough again, right because
(11:20):
why not? And so I think that's where this becomes
really hard. You have to be damn sure on the
Ukrainian side, and Zelensky does that whatever the concessions are,
it'll be like North and South Korea, where you're not
just going to punch through that line and do whatever
you want afterwards. And that's been going on for a long.
Speaker 1 (11:40):
Time, which is why I think maybe a solution yere
is some form of demilitarized zone. I know it's more
complicated because no one lives in the demilitarized zone and
this would theoretically be places where people have been living,
but that seems to me the best way to potentially
solve it.
Speaker 3 (11:57):
It's basically what they're building. I mean, when you're talking
about the expansive it's hundreds of miles of these fortifications Clay.
Really it's World War One reducts in that sense. I mean,
this is not it's not a few places where they're
dug in. They're dug in along an entire front of
hundreds of miles. So yeah, it's crazy. It's crazy what
they have built. That's what this that's what this war
(12:19):
has turned into. So this is it's very tough stuff.
I still have a lot of faith, you know, I
even think it's the wrong thing to say, because I
heard Marco Rubio talking about this over the weekend. It's
not just I have faith that if anyone can get
this done, it's Trump. The only person who can get
this done is Donald Trump. And that is that is
not some Trump worship thing. That is the truth. The
(12:40):
only person who could bring this together at this point
in time, who has the gravitas, who's in a position
to bring this horrible war that's killing hundreds of thousands
of people to an end, is Donald Trump. And I
just say that because everyone.
Speaker 4 (12:55):
Especially Ukraine flag waving Slava, Ukraine, America and Europeans should
be rooting for maximum success here and anything short of that,
I think is a really.
Speaker 3 (13:07):
Ugly manifestation of trumpet arrangement syndrome. We'll get into more
of this. We'll take your calls on this as well.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
Here.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
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Speaker 2 (14:05):
Buy Americans for Americans. The world has gone insane.
Speaker 1 (14:12):
Reclaim your sanity with Clay and find them on the
free iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcast.
Speaker 2 (14:20):
Welcome back into Clay and Buck.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
High stakes diplomacy going on today at the White House.
We have some really important stuff underway here. European leaders
are are they well, they're set to arrive. I believe
they've arrived. Zelenski is supposed to be arriving at the
White House run one pm. And so while we are
on air with you today, you will have the other piece.
(14:43):
The first piece of this was putin Trump Trump's top team,
so Rubio Hegseth in Alaska. But the other part of this,
the other necessary part of this is the other party
to a possible deal, Ukraine and really the European and
that comes together today. So we will have Trump in
(15:04):
the Oval Office with Zelenski. I don't think anyone's going
to be able to say there's a deal done today either.
Just to manage expectations, this is to get down on paper,
so to speak, what the Ukrainian needs are in this
situation and what the Europeans are going to do in
order to ensure that.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
That's happening here.
Speaker 3 (15:24):
Secretary of State Rubio, this is cut too on why
Zelenski is up today at the White House.
Speaker 5 (15:29):
Whether it's in business, or in politics or in geopolitics,
the only way to reach a deal is for each
side to get something and each side to give something,
and that's been very difficult. If it was easy, this
wouldn't have been going on for three and a half years. Understand,
the longer these wars go on, the harder they are
to end, unfortunately, because one side is always looking for
leverage on the other, in this particular case, the Russian
(15:50):
side as well. And so I think that's the core
of what we're trying to work through here. That's why
Zelenski's coming tomorrow. That's why European leaders are coming tomorrow.
That's why the President called them from the airplane, spent
two hours in the middle of the night talking to them,
and that's why we've been engaged with them every step
of the way. Is we are trying to find what
can we get to that both sides can agree on,
and it's been difficult. This is a hard issue set.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
It is difficult and clay.
Speaker 3 (16:16):
There's also the added emotional component of this for leaders
on both sides. I know people say, well, Putin's a
sociopath and he doesn't care at all. I think he
cares about Russia. I think he does at some level
care about the Russian people. He thinks this is the
right thing to do. I think it's evil and wrong,
but you know, this is what he has decided to do.
The sunk costs of this, clay, the casualties, the blood
(16:40):
and treasure spent. Both sides want to get the maximum
they can. You know this is not a minor thing
for them.
Speaker 1 (16:48):
No, and I mean it's just I come back again
and again to what is the benefit at all for Russia.
I understand that Putin finds the humiliate of the Soviet
Empire to be unacceptable and seize this as traditional Soviet lands.
I don't think if he had been able to look
(17:08):
into the future and know that hundreds of thousands of
Russians were going to be killed, I don't think he
would have thought that this was a worthy decision to make.
I think he expected that the Russian Army would take
over all of Ukraine very rapidly, and there would be
some sort of negotiated satellite state that Russia basically would control,
(17:29):
and that has not happened, to the credit of the
Ukrainian Imagine. Imagine if his initial Blitzkrig, which we were
reporting on together here on the show three years ago,
was successful. They took they took Kiev, and Zelenski fled
the country and it was just okay, unconditional surrender. He
would be up there in the Russian mines with the
greatest Russian leaders of all time. Unfortunately, that's not what
(17:52):
happened for everybody. Yeah, and I think he expected that
to happen.
Speaker 3 (17:56):
Yeah, just because the casualties have gotten so much higher
than anybody would have anticipated. I think at that point,
all right, our federal government has a spending problem. Decades
of spending beyond our own means have put our government
in a tough situation finding necessary funding without huge tax
rate increases. DOGE cuts will help, tariffincume will help, as
will massive business investments by companies making commitments.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
Bringing jobs back to our cities.
Speaker 3 (18:17):
Our federal government will have to be more industrious to
reduce our deficit and start paying down debt.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
But there is hope for a solution.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
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Speaker 1 (18:57):
Welcome back in, Clay, Travis buck Sexton. Shit, all of
the European leaders are arriving exactly right now as we
are speaking to all of you walking into the White House.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
I think one way that is the.
Speaker 1 (19:14):
Easiest to kind of explain Trump's perspective here, and I
think some of you will understand it because you may
have been through it before is before you end up
in a courtroom. Almost all major disputes go to mediation,
and Trump is effectively the mediator. And I know that
(19:38):
everybody wants immediate outcome, But for those of you who
have not been to a mediation before, both parties are
in different rooms and sometimes it's in the same venue
other times. Now with technology, it's basically set up on
a zoom call or whatever it might be, and you
have a mediator going back and forth constantly trying to
(20:03):
figure out a way to get a solution to the problem.
And so I think that's the easiest way to kind
of structurally think about what exactly is going on. From
the Trump perspective, the United States effectively is the mediator here.
We are trying to bring peace, and I do believe
(20:23):
we have a little bit better idea after the face
to face meeting what Putin wants, what his most desired
outcomes are, where he might be able to give, And
I think the same thing is true after today, we
will have a better sense for exactly what Ukraine's so
called red lines are, what is and what is not acceptable,
(20:45):
And as anyone who has ever been involved in a
mediation knows. It is often very unsettling because nobody gets
everything that they want.
Speaker 2 (20:56):
Nobody get.
Speaker 1 (20:57):
Ukraine wants Russia to put down their arms and even say, hey,
you know what, that boundaries in place for a reason,
we never should have invaded your territory. We apologize, We're
going to go back to Russia. We'll just pretend the
last three and a half years never happen. And Russia
wants for multiple parts of Ukraine, certainly the parts that
(21:18):
it has taken so far to become a part of
the Russian homeland as a part of the Russian territory.
And so to me, Buck, I think the most difficult
question for the United States is what exactly is our
role going forward? Because right now we can be a
neutral arbiter. We are effectively the mediator. We are Switzerland
(21:40):
in this respect. But going forward, what sort of security
guarantees will we be a part of enforcing. And remember
this was a big part of the mineral rights. The
whole aspect of Ukraine giving up their mineral rights, which
turned into a big issue in the White House earlier
this year, was that the United States, when it has
(22:02):
a property interest in Ukraine assets in theory, is more
likely to protect those assets. That's the gamble that effectively
Ukraine made in giving up some of the purported value
of their mineral rights. And that's why I keep coming
back to the Korea situation. Seems to me the best
historical analogy at this point.
Speaker 3 (22:23):
I hope for you have CNN's Harry Anson here. I
think this is worth noting as well because there are
Democrats in Congress, for example, Senators and some Republicans Lindsay
Graham are very hawkish on we need to do whatever
we need to do to get Ukraine to victory. And
(22:45):
the challenge here is that victory for Ukraine would mean
pushing It's not just holding what it has now. It
would mean pushing Russia out of where it currently is,
and I think there's no chance whatsoever that that is
going to happen. So Ranians are getting weary of this
fight as well. This is what the data says. To
CNN's Harry Enton, play five.
Speaker 6 (23:08):
Ukrainians on the war versus Russia. You go back to
twenty twenty two, to the start of the war, fight
until Ukraine wins. Look at this, the vast majority, about
three quarters seventy three percent agreed with that position, negotiate
to end the war as soon as possible, only twenty
two percent.
Speaker 2 (23:21):
Look at where we are now, it's a complete flip.
It's the inverse.
Speaker 6 (23:24):
Now, sixty nine percent want to negotiate to end the
war as soon as possible, compared to just twenty four
percent who want to fight until Ukraine wins. That's a
forty nine point drop in this position. Now, of course,
negotiating to end the war as soon as possible, that's
a bit more nuanced. Right, Ukrainians don't want to agree
to all of Russia's demand, But I think the idea
of even there being some territory that would be not
formally recognized as being given that Russia could in fact
(23:47):
stay and that does have a majority sport. But the
idea of formal recognition of Russia's man's absolutely not clay.
Speaker 3 (23:54):
This is the challenge when you're dealing with the Russian
military is you have to be you have to be
ready for the fact that they will make blunders. They
will do things that make it seem like there's tremendous
incompetence in the ranks of leadership. They will make big mistakes,
(24:14):
but they will keep the meat grinder of Russian casualties going.
And you know, I think historically, and we could get
into this another time maybe, like the Russian psychology around
warfare is whatever it takes, however many it takes, and
they have a lot more people than Ukraine. So if
you're in a World War One trench warfare style setup,
(24:37):
which is effectively what they are, this is trench warfare
two point zero on the Ukraine front. If that's where
things are, you're also in a war of attrition, which
you know, I find the First World War both fascinating
and horrifying right when you read about the history of it,
and any of you who haven't seen it, just as
in a side to get a sense of what it
was like, that movie All Quiet on the Western Front
(24:59):
the Netflix put out is a fantastic movie.
Speaker 2 (25:02):
Harrowing.
Speaker 3 (25:02):
I mean, it's not it's not like a pleasant watch
in that sense, but it really shows you what trench
warfare in the First World War was like. And now
we're in a place where the casualties are mounting, but
Russia can afford far higher casualties in the Ukrainians, and
because there's no political mechanism of pressure on Putin, really
(25:23):
no internal political mechanism of pressure.
Speaker 2 (25:25):
He just keeps it going.
Speaker 3 (25:27):
And this is when you're up against autocracy, and Russia
is an autocracy.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
We understand that when you're up against an autocracy.
Speaker 3 (25:34):
This is one of the challenges democracies have to care
about body counts. Whether you think Ukraine is truly democracy
or not, I know he but Ukrainian people certainly they
think that they should have more of a voice in
this than what you have with the Russians. Autocrats can
just feed people into the meat grinder until they decide enough,
until they decide enough is enough. And that's where putin
(25:54):
I think Clay has positioned himself.
Speaker 1 (25:56):
Yeah, and again I think the Trump mediator role also
then becomes how involved does the United States get? And
I do think I know everybody wants to pretend that
we're not involved. I still think the fact that we're
giving almost all the weapons that are being used to
kill the Russians, it's.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
Kind of a big deal.
Speaker 1 (26:17):
I mean, right, I mean, I know nobody really wants
to talk about it. But if you are constantly giving
someone weapons that they're using to kill other people, at
some point in time, most people would see that as
you being an accessory. I mean, this is the entire
argument about Iran's involvement with Hezbola, Iran's involvement with Hamas,
(26:39):
Iran's involvement with the UTIs and so many other different
terror groups. It's that they fund the weaponry that allows
them to execute the terrorism. If I lived in Russia,
the idea that the United States is claiming that it
is in some way not involved when every weapon that
is basically being used to kill Russian troops is produced
(27:02):
and provided by the United States by and large, I
know there's some European assistants weapon wise, I would find
that hard to accept. And so when I think about
what the security agreement's going to look like, Buck, We've
provided a certain level of securitized in a securitization to
Ukraine already, so boots on the ground is a little
(27:24):
bit different. But when you're providing all of the weapons,
I do think it's hard to say, well, the United
States a completely unbiased participant non combatant here.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
You know, there's I don't think enough of this part
of the Soviet Afghan War that is in the public consciousness,
because you know, everyone's seeing Charlie Wilson's war pretty much,
very slick, a little glib, but it's it's a good movie,
it's a good watch, but it glides over some stuff.
You had about a million Afghans killed in that war,
(27:57):
and the upper estimate is more like two million. A
million people dead in that from all kinds of Soviet
you know, everything, the enemy fire and.
Speaker 1 (28:10):
A lesson maybe that we should have thought of before
we went into Afghanistan, by the way, like in recent
history about that place basically being unconquerable or the.
Speaker 3 (28:19):
Lesson that too British wars in that region learned very painfully,
or Alexander the Great learned very painfully, or go down
the list. It's just an ungovernable region for a whole
bunch of reasons. Really, the topography is a huge part
of it. And having seen that topography, especially when you
get up in a helicopter and you see Afghanistan, You're like,
(28:41):
how's anyone going to control this place? Place is wild,
very hard to control. You know, I was This is
I know, quite an aside, but I was just an
Apalachically it's very hard to control mountain people who don't
want to be controlled, especially in a pre computer, pre
industrial age. So that's something that all over the world,
all throughout history, whether you're in Scotland or you're in
(29:02):
Southeast Asia, people who live in the mountains tend to
tell the government to you know, to leave, you know,
bleep off if you will. But back to the casualty
rates here. This is why you know, early on, I
mean I kept saying, and I'm remembering this because there
was a tremendous ebulliance once. And to be clear, I
don't wish that Putin had taken, you know, the capital
(29:24):
of the Ukraine and cut the country in half. I'm
just saying I just wish the war had ed it
a long time ago. Like one way or another, this
thing being over would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives.
That would have been a better outcome, I think, given
all the people who are now killed. And you're talking
about the switch of territory, switching territory in areas where
you know, Russia is not Nazi Germany. Okay, they're not
(29:46):
going to exterminate all the Russian speaking peoples in these
areas or something. You're talking about Russian federation versus Ukrainian
control at the end of the day, and you know
they're not. The Russians are not going to be operating
death camps for they're not. They'd certainly not do it
in Crimea, which they took, right, So I think we
have to also keep that into context here. We're not
(30:08):
trying to hold back the Russian Federation from committing genocide
against the civilian population once it has control. I don't
think that's going to happen at all. There are a
lot of Russian speaking peoples.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
In the East.
Speaker 3 (30:20):
This never gets talked about, but I've actually known some
of them. I've known Ukrainian Russian speaking Ukrainians Clay who
actually would this is this is like, I know this
is a traitorous comment to the Slava Ukrainian, but there
are some people in the Far East who would rather
be a part of the Russian Federation. They see it
as a much more powerful country with much better long
term prospects. That is reality too, right, So I think
(30:42):
that has to be taken into camp when we're negotiating this.
It's not are you going to be in East Berlin
or West Berlin?
Speaker 1 (30:49):
Uh, It's it's not North and South Korea, like you
can't leave North Korea, right, I mean, we want to
continue to have ingress and egress outside of these countries
going forward.
Speaker 3 (30:59):
I mean the perfect example this would be look at Crimea.
Are you hearing stories about you know, death camps in
Crimea for the Russian speaking, No, Russians control it now.
They have Russian passports and it's kind of business as
usual in a lot of ways over there.
Speaker 4 (31:14):
Now.
Speaker 3 (31:14):
I'm not trying to be flipping about it, but that's
what's gone on there. That is the outcome that we
really want to see. To stop the carnage in eastern Ukraine,
Russian Federation takes over. I know it's you know, upsetting
to a lot of people in Ukraine, a lot of Ukrainians.
But if they don't like that as the end state,
they have to come up with what's the better answer,
And we, the American people have to always in the
(31:36):
background be thinking America first. We just want this thing
to end. That's the most important thing. We don't want
this conflict to continue on. It is bad for humanity,
it is bad for business. It is bad for.
Speaker 2 (31:47):
Us because we are funding this thing.
Speaker 3 (31:49):
I think I said when it started it'll end up
costing a trillion dollars. I think Clay when you look
at the European and American cost in this, it will
be pretty close to that. When all's said and done,
it's already in the hundreds of billions. We're already on
the hook for I think two hundred billion on this.
So we are not just bystanders trying to bring about
an end. We're also very much incentivized for that end
(32:11):
to happen.
Speaker 1 (32:14):
No doubt, we'll take some of your calls, by the way,
your reactions, and a lot more as this is ongoing.
And keep in mind, we don't know exactly how this
is going to go. Remember the last time Zolensky, I believe,
visited the White House, it kind of got some fireworks.
So we may have to break in, we may have
press conferences. We don't expect again all the European leaders
in the White House right now, Zolinski there. We will
(32:36):
see how all of this continues to play out. But
wanted to tell you as we're breaking down all of
this ongoing news. Nine to eleven more than a day
in history. It's a day still taking lives. We remember
the twenty nine hundred and seventy seven people lost on
nine to eleven, including many first responders. Yet even more
(32:57):
have died since from related illnesses. We have a whole
generation of kids now, it's kind of crazy to think
about that know basically nothing about nine to eleven, little
to nothing for sure, and that's why the Tunnel of
the Towers nine to eleven Institute is writing that wrong
by helping teachers educate kids and grades K through twelve
with nonfiction resources. That's full curriculum units, scripted lessons, activities,
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background for teachers. They also provide first person accounts told
through videos and the Discovering Heroes book series, even a
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Donate eleven dollars a month to Tunnel of the Towers at
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t dot org.
Speaker 6 (33:49):
Clay Travison, Buck Sexton, telling it like it is.
Speaker 1 (33:52):
Find them on the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you
get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (33:57):
All right, welcome back into Clay and Buck. Everybody.
Speaker 3 (33:59):
It is is a big day at the White House.
Speaker 2 (34:02):
You've got European leaders.
Speaker 3 (34:03):
Vladimir Zelenski of Ukraine, Donald Trump his top team sitting
down trying to solve the biggest in terms of casualties,
in terms of men in materiel, the biggest conflict in
the world right now, and we will bring you updates
on this. We're also obviously very much watching what's going
on in Israel and in Gaza.
Speaker 7 (34:24):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (34:24):
There seems to be some possible breaking news there.
Speaker 3 (34:28):
Do we haven't confirmed yet about well got.
Speaker 1 (34:31):
And Hamas has evidently agreed to some of the terms
in terms of a cease fire and a prisoner exchange,
and we haven't heard Israel's response. So a lot of
different big stories in geopolitics happening in real time right now.
Speaker 3 (34:44):
You want to talk about boosting the I mean not
that everything's about the economy, but sort of boosting the
global economy. We end that war, you know, the Israel
finishes the job, ends that war, this war in Ukraine
comes to a conclusion. The world could be at peace.
Actually it could happen for a while here at least
most the major conflicts. Let's take James in North Carolina.
What's going on, James?
Speaker 8 (35:04):
Yes, good afternoon you guys.
Speaker 2 (35:07):
Yes, yeah, fire away, we got you.
Speaker 8 (35:09):
Yep. Yes. I was a student of the Limball advanced
conservative studies, and one of the things that Rush definitely
said was there's some exceptions, but for the most part,
until there's a decisive victory, you know, there's just no peace.
Speaker 3 (35:24):
That may be the case here, and that's that's the challenge,
that's the problem. Remember in World War One, the decisive
victory only came with American intervention. So that's a little
bit of a scary Uh. That's a that's not necessarily
the historical parallel we want to be citing.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
I also think buck the calendar matters here. We've talked
about this a little bit, but the weather is so
brutal in the winter there that moving men and materiel
becomes very difficult. So and the winter obviously hits faster
in Ukraine than it does here, So you're only talking
about a fighting season of two and a half three
more months at this point too.
Speaker 2 (36:01):
Mike, in Massachusetts, we got about forty seconds go for.
Speaker 7 (36:04):
It, okay, real quick. One of the things that I
don't think you guys have mentioned is how China fits
into this equation and how they have essentially been a
bulwark for the Russian economy when this whole thing started.
I think one of the objectives of the Europeans and
probably the Democrats here was their hatred of Putin was
(36:26):
a driving force, and thinking we would bleed Russia dry
eventually and that Putin would basically be overthrown a dozen
seem to be playing out.
Speaker 1 (36:35):
It's a great point, Buck, and we should talk about
the China impact also the economic side on the backside
of this. When we come back, second hour, good quality,
good call, we'll discuss.
Speaker 3 (36:45):
We'll dive well, no, we'll dive into that because remember,
the sanctions were supposed to destroy the Russian economy.
Speaker 2 (36:50):
That's what they said three years ago. Not even close.
We'll talk about why
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