November 4, 2024 • 36 mins
Trump campaign shares public early voting data that shows Democrat underperforming vs. 2020. Betting markets favor Trump on Election Eve. Ohio U.S. Senate candidate Bernie Moreno returns to discuss his closing argument against Sherrod Brown in the most expensive Senate race in American history.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Second hour of Clay and Buck kicks off now the
day before election day, and we got a lot of data.
We want to talk some data. Everybody will to take
your calls bet data. Clay loves data. He should, We
should get you a T shirt. Clay loves the first Amendments.
Something else, booms and data. First Amendment, boobs and data.
(00:21):
We could add that. We got to add one First
Amendment boobs and data. See, we were all evolving in
this life. My friends. Clay's now got a top three
first women, boobs data. We are going to be joined
by Bernie Marino running for that critical Ohio Senate scene
just a little bit, and then third hour Senator Marshall
Blackburn and then Steve Bannon, Warroom podcast host, former White
(00:42):
House chief strategist. He was in prison for months. He
has come out. We wanted to talk to him. We
wanted to express our gratitude as Trump supporters that he
has shown a particularly stiffened spine and a fighting spirit
in the face of the law fair machine. So we
(01:04):
wanted to give Steve a chance to come here and
talk to all of you. But this, this is going
to come out now. This is from the Trump campaign
So look, we're telling you where it's coming from. Trump
campaign sharing some of this data, but they're not going
to share data that's not true. Right, So you know
this will tell you the sores. But I do think
that the numbers are the numbers. This is this is important.
(01:26):
The data we're going to share with you is early
voting data. This is not polls.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
There seventy five million of us, you and me and
a lot of people out there listening right now who
have already voted. This is the Trump team early data,
basically letting you know what we have told you, which
is they've got the halftime lead, Kamal has got a
deficit to make up.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
So here's the thing. We'll give you the numbers and
then we'll talk a little analysis of it. And as
we are saying this, by the way, you know how
the best way to listen to the show if you
haven't voted is to be listening to it in the
car on the way to the polling place.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
Right.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
That's the best way to listen if you haven't voted.
Just throwing that out there, is there's something special about
listening to Clay and Buck on your way to vote early.
If you haven't already voted, so I would recommend I'd
recommend you do that. I think a lot of a
lot of our people, Clay, have already voted. We can't
actually do an official pull on that anyway. Let's get
into some of these numbers, and this is from the
(02:26):
Trump campaign, but they're saying it's data that you can public,
data that you can pull from the Democrat data expert
Tom Banier or Bonnier, I don't know how you say
his name. I mean point being Tom b This guy's
got a website, that's right. Arizona urban turnout down three
(02:47):
hundred and eighty five thousand votes compared to this point
in twenty twenty. Female turnout down one hundred and seventy
thousand compared to twenty twenty. Rural turnout up compared to
twenty twenty, up fifteen fourteen thousand votes. Georgia urban turnout
down one hundred and fifty three thousand compared to twenty Okay,
all these are comparisons to twenty twenty, to be clear, right,
(03:08):
so this is early voting data. Clay's point about, why
are we saying we're up at halftime?
Speaker 3 (03:14):
Right?
Speaker 1 (03:14):
Maybe we're Maybe we're up a touchdown or a field goal.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
I leave that to Clay.
Speaker 1 (03:18):
But you know, we're up some points on the board here.
Why do we think that or why are we saying
that this isn't a this isn't a feeling. I'm not
hooked on a feeling. I'm not high unbelieving. This is
the data. Georgia urban turnout down one hundred and fifty
three thousand, female turnout down, forty six thousand, rural turnout
up one hundred and seventy one thousand. Michigan urban turnout
(03:39):
down three hundred thousand votes compared to twenty twenty female down,
two hundred thousand, rural up, fifty five thousand. North Carolina
urban down, female down, rural up. Nevada urban down, female down,
rural up. So you know, you start to look Clay
at all. And then you got Pennsylvania, wis Conscientisconsin. This
(04:02):
is the only way that this goes for Kamala at
this point, I think is if somehow, without this being
a strategy that anybody had talked about up to this point,
there is a surge of day of Kamala voting all
(04:22):
across the swing states, all across the country that they
have people who somehow did vote early last time and
didn't want to vote early this time, wanted to show
up in person and vote. So it's possible, and there
are a few other ways you could crunch these numbers.
But if you're the Trump team, you're feeling pretty good
(04:44):
about how it's looking right now.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
Yes, and that's why we want to share you. I
think it's fair to say it's halftime, about one hundred
and fifty million ish people are going to vote. We
know seventy five million plus have already voted, so those
numbers are all baked in. A lot of you out
there done what we did, voted two weeks ago, almost
three weeks ago. For me, By the time election day
(05:07):
gets here, my vote's been cast.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
I've weighed in already.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
The numbers on the early vote have been really good
for Republicans and Trump supporters. Now, all of you out
there that didn't want to vote early, now you need
to do your part and show up, and you need
to get other people who are low propensity voters in
your car with you driving to the polling place on Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
And again, I don't want to.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Hear somebody's got a scratchy throat I don't want to
hear oh my bellies aching a little bit. You waited,
Go show up and vote and make your voice heard.
And Kamala is going to need in several of these
states buck to actually have more Democrats turning up than
there are Republicans on election day, which would be again,
(05:58):
is it possible she wins yet, Yes, but it would
be an inversion of the way that Democrats usually win elections.
That is, instead of running up a early absentee ballot
mail early vote lead and then withstanding the Republican surge,
they are going to need for the first time ever
(06:20):
to be making up deficits in many states North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona,
and Nevada in particular. But we're behind in the Midwest.
What we have done is we have limited their advanced lead.
So in a state like Pennsylvania, there are four hundred
thousand more Democrats out there that have voted so far.
(06:44):
Now they had and this is just basic math, they
had a one point one million vote lead in early
and absentee ballot voting mail ballots in twenty twenty. So
if Republicans show up like we did in Earnest on
election day, we should sweep away that four hundred thousand
(07:05):
vote lead, and we should end up winning the state
of Pennsylvania, maybe Michigan, Wisconsin as well. We want to
win every battleground state, but that's the stakes right now,
and that's why we're trying to be honest with you.
We've got a two touchdown lead at halftime. We have
done a really good job in the first half, but
we have to show up now on election day and deliver.
(07:27):
Kamala's camp is nervous. They should be, but they believe
they have a superior get out the vote organization and
their argument at this time is, now, we're going to
swamp the polls on election day and we're going to win.
I would argue we cannot allow that to happen. So
if you have not voted, your vote does matter. This
(07:48):
is as close of an election as we may well
have seen. And a couple of points this is important too,
can be the difference between Trump winning comfortably and Trump
losing because I think a lot of these battleground states
buck are going to move in the same direction because
we have a very nationalized race, and so a one
or two point move can be the difference between victory
(08:11):
or success. We're not talking about Trump winning by ten
points in any of these places. We're talking about the
difference being a one or two point win or loss,
particularly in the Midwest. But I think it's important to
have this data out there. This is the real data.
There's a lot of talk about polling. To me, why
would you use polling which is based on a sample
of a thousand voters or whatever the heck it is
(08:33):
when seventy five million of us have already voted in
many states that we expect to be close. You can
go in and look at the actual raw data files
and have a good sense for how things are going
so far.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
I have to say the fact that it is as
close as it is, it's funny. You can look at
this so many different ways. Kamal Harris is truly, truly
the worst candidate I have ever seen for office of
the presidency in my life time, and it is a
testament to the power of the Democrat machine. I would
argue that this is even still an election, right, So
(09:10):
that also makes me think it doesn't really matter who
the candidate is. Democrats can now effectively get forty eight
or forty nine percent of the vote with anyone. I
mean basically any human being that they decide should be president.
They can get forty eight or forty nine percent of
(09:31):
the electorate to vote for that person. So what you
end up having is months and months or in the
case of this campaign, you know, three or four months
of and billions of dollars spent to convince two percent
of the country maybe of the electorate. I should say,
two percent of the electorate to go one way or
the other, to show up or not show up. It's
(09:52):
pretty remarkable when you think about it.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
I mean, I have to say, what do you think
about releasing the early voting data from the Trump team directly?
Speaker 1 (10:01):
I think they feel good. It's funny because people you
can have this two ways, right, or you can approach
this two ways. Some people say, don't talk about it
until it's done, because you'll people will say, oh, it's
in the back. I actually don't agree. I think that
whenever a political campaign can claim momentum. What was Kamala's
team saying in August. Were they saying, oh, these polls,
(10:25):
don't pay attention to them. They were saying, we're up
five in Michigan, were up seven?
Speaker 3 (10:29):
You know they were.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
Because momentum matters. The psychology of politics, I would argue,
is much more momentum based than it is, you know,
underdog focus. So yeah, you don't want to take anything
for granted, of course, But if they if they had
date I'll tell you that. Here, here's a perfect way
to look at this play. If Kamala's campaign had data
(10:52):
showing that compared to twenty twenty, the female vote, the
urban vote was up dramatically. It isn't just what the
campaign would release. It is all you would hear about
on every Democrat allied media channel, show everything between now
and the election. Guarantee. I have zero doubt about that.
Speaker 4 (11:14):
So this is where we get into Oh, but you know,
we shouldn't get we shouldn't get too excited too soon.
No one's excited about anything really until the votes are
counted and Trump wins. But you have to look at
the numbers as they are, and the numbers are encouraging,
and I would argue that good numbers at this stage,
(11:35):
at halftime, as we'recalling a clay, encourages the last quarter
of play to be the strongest quarter of play for
the MAGA movement and for Trump supporters.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
And by the way we come back. I'll tell you, Okay,
give me the counter argument. What would the Kamala team
be arguing right now as they look at all these
early vote numbers. I'll tell you what I think they're
trying to say to their supporters. So you have a
good sense of where we are sitting as we sit
on election eve. Go vote, Go vote, go vote. We
(12:10):
want to celebrate with all of you on Wednesday. It
would be a joyful show and you can make it so.
But I want to tell you right now, a lot
of you out there trying to decide. We just talked Buck.
What I just say. How many dudes out there have
waited until Christmas Eve eve or Christmas Eve that is
December twenty third or December twenty fourth to get out
(12:32):
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I bet a huge number of you have found yourself
in that position because men tend to wait until the
absolute latest moment. So if that is you, why don't
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Speaker 4 (13:46):
Stories of Freedom, Stories of America, inspirational stories that you
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Speaker 1 (13:53):
Spend time with Clay and Boy.
Speaker 2 (13:55):
Find them on the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you
get your podcast. Welcome back in Clay Travis buck Sexton Show. Okay,
I know a lot of you have enjoyed following the
election gambling odds on Election Eve, Buck, and there's been
a lot of movement in this stuff. But I'm speaking
to you literally at this exact moment. The gambling markets
(14:18):
with over three billion dollars wager. At poly market, they
have Trump as a fifty eight percent chance to win,
Kamala Harris at forty two percent. The best Trump has
done is about sixty six in the last month, and
this was dead even about a month ago when Trump
(14:39):
started to pull away as the favorite. And in the
individual because I know people care about this in the
individual swing states, Trump is a favorite in Pennsylvania, and
we've been saying this for a while. I think whoever
wins Pennsylvania is going to be the next president of
the United States. Fifty six percent chance Trump wins Pennsylvania,
(15:00):
sixty seven percent, North Carolina sixty four percent, Nevada sixty
seven percent, Georgia those are and seventy seven percent Arizona.
So Trump is a big favorite or a favorite in
five of the seven battlegrounds. You can bet on this
at polymarket dot com. Michigan Kamala sixty percent favorite to win.
(15:26):
That would make Trump roughly forty percent, so close. And
then Wisconsin Kamala a fifty nine percent favorite, Trump a
forty two. So what are they saying on the Kamala
sidebuck I think they're saying, we are going to have
an incredible election day turnout. And I think they're saying
all three of the big ten states are going to
(15:47):
go in one direction, and they're going to go in
our direction. They are saying, we're gonna win Pennsylvania, Michigan,
and Wisconsin. And if she does that, and she wins Omaha,
she's the president of the United States. That's assuming that
New Hampshire doesn't flip, that Virginia doesn't flip. But she
could lose North Carolina, she could lose Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
(16:11):
She could lose all four of those battleground states. If
she won Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and Omaha, she would
get to two seventy and Trump would have two sixty eight.
That's the worst case scenario to me of how this
thing could shake out if it were going to be
a close election and Kamala was going to win. But
I think they are telling all their people, we're going
(16:33):
to storm the polls on election day. Women are going
to vote. I don't know about you, Buck, but I've
been watching. I mean, they're just basically lying. They're like
Trump's going to drag you out of your home by
your hair if you're pregnant, and put you in in
a mental institution and force you to give birth. I mean,
that's basically what they're arguing now. And they've got a
lot of women convinced that they're only going to vote
(16:54):
for president of the United States based on abortion.
Speaker 3 (16:56):
I mean, there are.
Speaker 2 (16:57):
Tens of millions of people. That's only issue they care about,
and they are trying to drive it home because they're
wrong on the economy, they're wrong on the border, they're
wrong on crime. That's their closing argument.
Speaker 1 (17:08):
Yeah, Trump is running against the machine in every sense.
He is outside of the machine in terms of his
creation as a political candidate. He's not a lifelong politician
as we know, and now he is having to run
against a totally Democrat machine candidate alongside the law fair
(17:29):
and everything else that has been used to try to
hobble his campaign up to this point. So it's in
some sense amazing that he's making as much of a
horse race of it as he is. With multiple indictments
and multiple impeachments and all these things that they've done
in all the insurrection and all.
Speaker 2 (17:48):
The you know what I mean, it's the fact that
it's close is staggering when you consider all the rig
job working against they would have broken broken other people
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Speaker 1 (17:59):
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additional fifty percent off your first month. The most expensive
non presidential political race in the history of the country.
(19:05):
Have you seen this? Ohio Senate race between Bernie Marino
and Shared Brown is estimated to cost at this point
four hundred and sixty seven million dollars. It is an
absolute razor thin margin. Bernie Marino is with us. We
(19:25):
are confident he is going to win. Bernie, great to
have you back. Why are Democrats throwing so much money
into this? I mean a Senate seat. I'm not saying
it's not an important and valuable thing, but half a
billion dollars what's going on here?
Speaker 5 (19:41):
Yeah, half a billion is probably where it ends up.
For sixty seven was probably a week or so ago.
It's that expensive for one simple reason. I win Republicans
control the United States Senate. And of course, if that happens,
it means DC won't be a state, por Rico won't
be a state. They won't pack the Supreme Court, they
won't give so this is ship to be legals. They
(20:01):
won't banfracking, We're not going to fund endless wars. This
is their agenda. So are their agenda? Ends Tomorrow night?
The minute I am declared the winner of this race.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
Bernie, good news, and I know you want everybody to
show up, and I just I bet we've said this
a billion times on this show. Go vote, go, vote,
go vote. But Emerson Polling just came out with a poll.
I think I saw it in the last few minutes.
They have Trump up twelve in the state of Ohio.
They have you up four. You are now and you
(20:33):
may not be comfortable with this, but in real clear politics,
you are now the favorite to win the race. I
know you want everybody to go vote, sprint through the
finish line, everything else, But does that reflect the momentum
that you are seeing on the ground in Ohio and
the fact that you have taken control of this race
in your mind.
Speaker 3 (20:51):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (20:51):
Absolutely, because look it comes out of this. If my
opponent is a fifty year career politician, he's run eighteen campaigns.
People are sick and tied to these people that go
to DC forever. This guy's racked up trillions of dollars
of debt, he's for the Green New Deal. He wants
men playing women's sports. I mean, that's not what Ohio
cares about. They want to turn the page and cancel
(21:13):
the Shriff Brown Show. And at the end of the day,
they just want their country back and they want leaders
that won't treat them like garbage. They want people who
go to DC that actually advocate for them, care about them. Actually,
I'll say it this way, that actually loved the American
people and love this country. And that's not who Sharon
Brown is. He's a total fake, a total fraud. And
We're gonna win this election tomorrow. We feel really good
(21:34):
about where we are. President Trump is gonna win Ohio
big time. Ohio loves President Trump, So we feel good
about where we are in the race.
Speaker 1 (21:42):
What's the closing message like, because my understanding, Clay was
in Pennsylvania, right, you just saw some of the last
ads for Casey there. Yes, they're running ads in Pennsylvania, Like, Yeah,
Bob Casey, he's a reasonable guy, he's gonna work with Trump,
he's gonna do the cross the aisle thing. You can try,
Bob Casey. I have a feeling I'll live in Ohio.
(22:03):
But Shared Brown's running a similar playbook in the closing hours,
What can you tell us about how that's going?
Speaker 3 (22:09):
Well?
Speaker 5 (22:10):
His messaging has been all over the board, generally, his
message is Bernie Marino is a bad guy.
Speaker 3 (22:16):
He's the only thing he's got.
Speaker 5 (22:17):
But what's interesting is his closing message is something I
didn't anticipate.
Speaker 3 (22:22):
His closing message.
Speaker 5 (22:23):
Is that he wants Ohio to vote for him because
he sent hundreds of billions of dollars to Ukraine.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
Like, you can't even make that up. It is so crazy.
Speaker 5 (22:32):
I mean, that is not even a top twenty issue
here in Ohio. My closings message wasn't delivered by my
amazing team or my campaign consultants. It was delivered by
a six year old in first grade in Columbus, Ohio,
when I went to visit that school last week, when
he looked at me and said, you're Bernie Marino and
you're gonna win. And I said, well, why do you
say that? He said to me, because Sharon Brown is
(22:54):
just too liberal for Ohio.
Speaker 3 (22:57):
I love that.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
What will you be looking for in the state of
Ohio on election day tomorrow where you think you'll be
able to glean how the race is going. We've been
number one in Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati at different points
during the course of this year, so obviously the state
loves this show what part of Ohio do you think?
(23:19):
And I know all of it is the answer, but
what would you like to be able to have access
to right now a day early to have a sense
for how this is going to go?
Speaker 5 (23:28):
Well, you have to understand that in Ohio early voting
is over. It ended yesterday. Over two point five million
people in Ohio voted already, so that's done. There's no
voting today. Polls open tomorrow at six point thirty until
seven thirty pm. Republicans have a two hundred and sixty
thousand vote advantage over Democrats as I talk to you
(23:50):
right now, thirty hours before this is over. What we
need is every last Republican to go out and vote tomorrow.
This has got to be a landslide election. In that
Emerson Pole, the most important number was in the up
four is that share. Brown's at forty five. So we
got to have a double digit win tomorrow. And the
way we do that is get everybody who's listening on
(24:10):
this call, make a plan to go vote tomorrow. If
you've already voted, find a friend, find a relative that
you can go take to the polling booth, or watch
their kids while they pull or do whatever you can,
but we have to swamp the vote tomorrow, not not
only to the people of Ohio, to the people of
this country. This election matters. We've got to vote like
our country depends on it, because it does.
Speaker 1 (24:32):
Bernie Marina with us now running for Senate against Shared
Brown in Ohio, and it's a critical seat, as he's
pointed out, I mean, they're spending hundreds of millions of
dollars on this race because it's control of the Senate
really that we're talking about here. It's not just another
Senate seat because of the way the numbers are likely
to play out here. To that end, Bernie, we get
(24:52):
so many people that you know they've already voted earlier,
or they're about to go vote there. Sure they're about
to do it if they haven't voted yet, but they're concerned.
There's a very palpable, very real fear out there that
there's gonna be shenanigans. I'm just wondering, can you speak
to any election integrity measures that you know the rnc's
(25:13):
got in place, pole watchers, lawyers. I mean, just so
that people because I think that if they feel like
it's all going to be more likely on the up
and up. There are a lot of people on our side,
on the right who are more likely to make sure
they get there, especially if they're Day of voters.
Speaker 5 (25:27):
Well, first of all, and Ohio were in great shape. Ohio,
we're gonna have a result tomorrow night. It will happen
pretty quickly. We tabulate our early and absentee votes right
at seven thirty pm Eastern. There's a possibility this gets
this race gets called early. So Ohio, don't worry about Ohio.
The other states. President Trump and Michael Wattley, the chairman
of the R and C, has done a phenomenal job
(25:48):
of protecting the ballot. We've had lawsuits that we've been
victorious on all over America. So I think we're going
to have a good election tomorrow. Look, they're not going
to cheat. They're trying to lie. They're just trying to
pretend there's something they're not. Look, they're running on a
campaign of hope, except that the hope that they have
is that you forget the last four.
Speaker 3 (26:06):
Years I mean, Bernie.
Speaker 1 (26:08):
They're hoping Hitler doesn't win, is really what they seem
to be telling everybody.
Speaker 5 (26:12):
So they hope that Americans forget about the twelve million illegals, generationally,
high inflation, instability all of the world, are com messes in.
Speaker 3 (26:20):
Our cities that are a disaster.
Speaker 5 (26:23):
So that's what they're hoping for, is that we just
have amnesia and that we pretend that Joe Biden Kamala
Harris didn't exist. But the reality is Ohio and Americans
are too smart for that. We're gonna win big demorro.
But everybody listening, make up plan for tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (26:36):
You go out there and vote.
Speaker 5 (26:37):
And if it's a two hour line or a three
hour line or a four hour line, you remember what
the people who came before us gave up. They give
up their lives, they give up their fortunes. They give
us his freedom. You stand in line and you vote,
and you make your voice heard. That's the most important
thing we can do tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (26:53):
You are surging.
Speaker 2 (26:54):
We're talking to Bernie Marino and helping Republicans take back
control of the Senate. Tim Sheehe is dominating right now
in Montana, West Virginia is a pickup. Are you seeing
the same thing? We got listeners all over the country.
I was with Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania Saturday. You got
Mike Rodgers up in Michigan. You've got Eric Hovedy in Wisconsin,
(27:15):
Carrie Lake in Arizona, Sam Brown and Nevada. A rising
tide can lift all boats. There are a lot of
Senate races out there that could be decided by a
couple of points. What are you seeing on the battleground
map overall for the Senate.
Speaker 5 (27:30):
I mean, it's a chance that we have in epic class,
I mean Nella Domenici in New Mexico, Honkow and Virginia.
You know, it's possible that we all win. And here's
what I'll tell you, because we've had a lot of
conversations between us, this would be a freshman class that's
going to go there to actually get the agenda done.
We're going to secure the border, have energy dominance, peace
(27:51):
around the world. We're actually going to cut the deficit.
We're going to make certain that we shrink the size
of scale the federal government. We're going to get normalcy
back to them America. So if you're in any of
those states, go out there and vote vote Republican all
the way down to ticket. You know, if President Trump
wins Arizona and everybody who votes for President Trump votes
for Kerry Lake, she'll win, same as Sam in Wisconsin.
(28:12):
So that's what we got to do. You got to
go in there and vote. Don't you just vote for
President Trump, go all the way down to ticket.
Speaker 3 (28:17):
It's really important.
Speaker 5 (28:19):
This is the election we'll talk to our kids and
grandkids about because this is the election that America decides
who it is. We're the country that's founded on freedom,
personal responsibility, a small government that gets out of our way.
It's not a socialist country. It's not a communist country.
We're not the country of Bernie Sanders. That's not who
we are. We're going to reject that tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (28:40):
Bernie Marino, everybody, Bernie. We've got a lot of confidence
in you. We got a lot of Ohio listeners, and
I know that they're going to get out there and
get it done. So we'll let you get back to it,
focus on it, and just promise us when you have
a victory lap to run, you'll come and do one
here on the show.
Speaker 5 (28:56):
Absolutely, I'd be happy to you know, this is a
big sports state. So if you'll have me, if I
win tomorrow, we'll give our voters updates every once in
a while on your show, and thank you for everything
that you guys have done. You're making a difference.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
Amen, by the way you are killing it. Get out Ohio.
Put Bernie Marino in the Senate, have fun this last
twenty four hours, and enjoy tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (29:18):
You got it.
Speaker 2 (29:18):
Thank you, guys, Bernie Marino.
Speaker 1 (29:22):
Buck.
Speaker 2 (29:22):
I mean, look, West Virginia again, We're focused. We want
Trump to win, but I think you need to understand
the overall Senate map, West Virginia is a win. Thank
you West. I was trying not to curse, by God, Virginia.
So you guys got it to fifty to fifty. Problem
is with fifty to fifty, obviously, the VP is the
tie breaker in the Senate. We saw that with Kamala
(29:43):
too often in the last four years. Tim Sa sheehe
and in Montana is looking great. Bernie is now favored
in Ohio. All the polls, he's surging. And then I'm
telling y'all McCormick in Pennsylvania, Eric Hovedy in Wisconsin, and
Mike Rogers in Michigan. He just ran through a lot
of that list. Sam Brown were up right now in Nevada.
(30:06):
Carrie Lake Arizona is storming the polls, Buck, I mean,
Republicans have a two hundred thousand early vote lead in Arizona.
This could be a transformative race in the Senate. Trump
matters a great deal, but senators have six year terms.
So if you flip the Senate and Republicans take a
three or four lead, it's gonna be really hard to
(30:28):
suddenly take back control of the Senate in any of
the upcoming election cycles.
Speaker 1 (30:33):
Look, it's gonna be a very interesting night tomorrow night.
This is the point of the game. And you're like,
whoever has more points on the board is gonna win.
I Bernie Marino's run a great campaign, and he's clearly
better for the country and would be a better option
than his opponent, Shared Brown. And I will just say this,
(30:54):
you know that something's up when no Republicans in the
Senate or when running for and and I should say
Clay are pretending to be Democrats to win. You know
what I mean? This is this is not happening anywhere.
There's no Republican who's in a tight race who's like,
you know what, I think Kamala Harris is really smart
and I really want to work.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
With people to reach across the Aisle with Kamala I
can't wait. That gives you a really good sense for
what their number show.
Speaker 6 (31:21):
But it's it's not even just the numbers there, right
of course, yes, it's also it's so dishonest because they
will not do that at all. Shared Brown will do
exactly what Chuck Schumer tells him. And I'm not even
just saying this because we just had Bernie Bernie on
This is the.
Speaker 1 (31:35):
Maneuver they do. They they have a huge advantage with
the legacy media. You know Kamala. They spent a billion
dollars in what four months on Kamala errors, And they're
just trying to use just blunt force propaganda to convince people,
whether it's Senate or President Presidency Clay that the people
that that they're voting for or you know that that
(31:57):
you're voting for people who aren't what they so clearly are,
which is left wing partisan democrats who will do exactly
what the machine tells them. All the money that's being spent,
right is actually to obviously demonize Republicans and convince independence
that Democrats aren't actually democrats. But there's something else. Some
a maverick I'm in the middle. I do my you
know what I mean, It's just so dishonest. It's so dishonest.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
True, That's why you can't split, right. I understand some
of you out there are like, oh, I'm by partisan,
like I'm gonna vote Trump, but I'm also good. No,
if you are voting Trump, you need to be voting
for the Republican candidates in your jurisdictions, in your states
and your congressional districts, because otherwise you're saying you want Trump,
but you want him kneecaps so that he can't actually
(32:40):
accomplish anything.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
Yeah, it makes ticket splitting makes no sense to me
like that that I'm just like, why even my bod
if you're gonna give Trump a Democrats Senate and House,
you know what they're gonna do, dig in their heels,
impeach him and act like maniacs the whole time. That's
all they're gonna do. That's all they're gonna do. I
guarante I would place a bet with anybody on it.
(33:03):
It's quite clear to me. And you know, one of
the big problems we face here is that there are
so many Democrats out there, unfortunately who lack you know,
strength comes from within and that intercolm, that piece of
having the stamina, the oomph to get get it done
and know that you can count on yourself. You know,
if you feel like you're lacking a little bit of that.
You know a lot of Democrats not enough tea, let's
(33:24):
be honest talking about the guys now, not enough testosterone,
and there are other things that you need to have
the biochemistry balanced forward to get the most out of
your day, to be as productive and as as much
of a champ as you can. This is where chalk
comes in. Telling you right now, people take chalk. They're
voting Republican because they can get what they need out
(33:45):
of their day. They don't need the government to state
to step in and be like, oh, I'm Brian Stelter,
I can't do anything. You need to help me. I
need a bottle.
Speaker 3 (33:53):
No.
Speaker 1 (33:54):
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Speaker 3 (35:01):
Ready to go, Ready to rock.
Speaker 2 (35:03):
Peek out with the guys on the Sunday Hang with
Clay and Buck podcast, a new episode every Sunday. Find
it on the iHeart app or wherever you get your podcasts.
Welcome back in Clay Travis buck Sexton show. Let me
tell you Marsha Blackburn top of the next hour. She's
running for the Senate in my home state of Tennessee.
Will be on the ballot tomorrow two thirty Steve Bannon.
(35:25):
Those are obviously East Coast times. Lots of people weighing in,
but a couple of VIP emails. Chris says, I'm nervous.
How is this different from twenty two? I feel like
we get the same confident vibes. We were so confident.
Why would this be different. Ps I'm a Kentucky football fan,
so forgive me for being pessimistic. But the very funny like, So,
(35:46):
here's the deal. We won. Republicans did the overall vote
in twenty twenty two. It was not that one percent
that we needed in order to carry everybody over. I'm
saying the same thing right now. All of the signs
are there. I was gonna say there was a red
wave in twenty twenty two. It just splashed in the
(36:07):
wrong places. And that red wave, I should know, did
give us control of the House through places, through seats
in Congress from California and New York specifically, So you know,
it was just we've warned about this. It's going to
be close in some of these key states. I also
think there were some particularly weak candidates in twenty twenty two.
(36:28):
I don't think anyone think Donald Trump's are particularly weak candadate.
He's already been president.
Speaker 1 (36:31):
One.
Speaker 2 (36:32):
What Buck just said is also important. New York California
won the House in twenty twenty two. Maybe your state
is not going to be competitive in the Senate or
in the presidency, but you can control who wins the
House if you're in New York in California. In fact,
it is probably those two states that will decide who
controls the House.
Speaker 1 (36:53):
Go vote no matter where you live.
Second hour of Clay and Buck kicks off now the
day before election day, and we got a lot of data.
We want to talk some data. Everybody will to take
your calls bet data. Clay loves data. He should, We
should get you a T shirt. Clay loves the first Amendments.
Something else, booms and data. First Amendment, boobs and data.
(00:21):
We could add that. We got to add one First
Amendment boobs and data. See, we were all evolving in
this life. My friends. Clay's now got a top three
first women, boobs data. We are going to be joined
by Bernie Marino running for that critical Ohio Senate scene
just a little bit, and then third hour Senator Marshall
Blackburn and then Steve Bannon, Warroom podcast host, former White
(00:42):
House chief strategist. He was in prison for months. He
has come out. We wanted to talk to him. We
wanted to express our gratitude as Trump supporters that he
has shown a particularly stiffened spine and a fighting spirit
in the face of the law fair machine. So we
(01:04):
wanted to give Steve a chance to come here and
talk to all of you. But this, this is going
to come out now. This is from the Trump campaign
So look, we're telling you where it's coming from. Trump
campaign sharing some of this data, but they're not going
to share data that's not true. Right, So you know
this will tell you the sores. But I do think
that the numbers are the numbers. This is this is important.
(01:26):
The data we're going to share with you is early
voting data. This is not polls.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
There seventy five million of us, you and me and
a lot of people out there listening right now who
have already voted. This is the Trump team early data,
basically letting you know what we have told you, which
is they've got the halftime lead, Kamal has got a
deficit to make up.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
So here's the thing. We'll give you the numbers and
then we'll talk a little analysis of it. And as
we are saying this, by the way, you know how
the best way to listen to the show if you
haven't voted is to be listening to it in the
car on the way to the polling place.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
Right.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
That's the best way to listen if you haven't voted.
Just throwing that out there, is there's something special about
listening to Clay and Buck on your way to vote early.
If you haven't already voted, so I would recommend I'd
recommend you do that. I think a lot of a
lot of our people, Clay, have already voted. We can't
actually do an official pull on that anyway. Let's get
into some of these numbers, and this is from the
(02:26):
Trump campaign, but they're saying it's data that you can public,
data that you can pull from the Democrat data expert
Tom Banier or Bonnier, I don't know how you say
his name. I mean point being Tom b This guy's
got a website, that's right. Arizona urban turnout down three
(02:47):
hundred and eighty five thousand votes compared to this point
in twenty twenty. Female turnout down one hundred and seventy
thousand compared to twenty twenty. Rural turnout up compared to
twenty twenty, up fifteen fourteen thousand votes. Georgia urban turnout
down one hundred and fifty three thousand compared to twenty Okay,
all these are comparisons to twenty twenty, to be clear, right,
(03:08):
so this is early voting data. Clay's point about, why
are we saying we're up at halftime?
Speaker 3 (03:14):
Right?
Speaker 1 (03:14):
Maybe we're Maybe we're up a touchdown or a field goal.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
I leave that to Clay.
Speaker 1 (03:18):
But you know, we're up some points on the board here.
Why do we think that or why are we saying
that this isn't a this isn't a feeling. I'm not
hooked on a feeling. I'm not high unbelieving. This is
the data. Georgia urban turnout down one hundred and fifty
three thousand, female turnout down, forty six thousand, rural turnout
up one hundred and seventy one thousand. Michigan urban turnout
(03:39):
down three hundred thousand votes compared to twenty twenty female down,
two hundred thousand, rural up, fifty five thousand. North Carolina
urban down, female down, rural up. Nevada urban down, female down,
rural up. So you know, you start to look Clay
at all. And then you got Pennsylvania, wis Conscientisconsin. This
(04:02):
is the only way that this goes for Kamala at
this point, I think is if somehow, without this being
a strategy that anybody had talked about up to this point,
there is a surge of day of Kamala voting all
(04:22):
across the swing states, all across the country that they
have people who somehow did vote early last time and
didn't want to vote early this time, wanted to show
up in person and vote. So it's possible, and there
are a few other ways you could crunch these numbers.
But if you're the Trump team, you're feeling pretty good
(04:44):
about how it's looking right now.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
Yes, and that's why we want to share you. I
think it's fair to say it's halftime, about one hundred
and fifty million ish people are going to vote. We
know seventy five million plus have already voted, so those
numbers are all baked in. A lot of you out
there done what we did, voted two weeks ago, almost
three weeks ago. For me, By the time election day
(05:07):
gets here, my vote's been cast.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
I've weighed in already.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
The numbers on the early vote have been really good
for Republicans and Trump supporters. Now, all of you out
there that didn't want to vote early, now you need
to do your part and show up, and you need
to get other people who are low propensity voters in
your car with you driving to the polling place on Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
And again, I don't want to.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Hear somebody's got a scratchy throat I don't want to
hear oh my bellies aching a little bit. You waited,
Go show up and vote and make your voice heard.
And Kamala is going to need in several of these
states buck to actually have more Democrats turning up than
there are Republicans on election day, which would be again,
(05:58):
is it possible she wins yet, Yes, but it would
be an inversion of the way that Democrats usually win elections.
That is, instead of running up a early absentee ballot
mail early vote lead and then withstanding the Republican surge,
they are going to need for the first time ever
(06:20):
to be making up deficits in many states North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona,
and Nevada in particular. But we're behind in the Midwest.
What we have done is we have limited their advanced lead.
So in a state like Pennsylvania, there are four hundred
thousand more Democrats out there that have voted so far.
(06:44):
Now they had and this is just basic math, they
had a one point one million vote lead in early
and absentee ballot voting mail ballots in twenty twenty. So
if Republicans show up like we did in Earnest on
election day, we should sweep away that four hundred thousand
(07:05):
vote lead, and we should end up winning the state
of Pennsylvania, maybe Michigan, Wisconsin as well. We want to
win every battleground state, but that's the stakes right now,
and that's why we're trying to be honest with you.
We've got a two touchdown lead at halftime. We have
done a really good job in the first half, but
we have to show up now on election day and deliver.
(07:27):
Kamala's camp is nervous. They should be, but they believe
they have a superior get out the vote organization and
their argument at this time is, now, we're going to
swamp the polls on election day and we're going to win.
I would argue we cannot allow that to happen. So
if you have not voted, your vote does matter. This
(07:48):
is as close of an election as we may well
have seen. And a couple of points this is important too,
can be the difference between Trump winning comfortably and Trump
losing because I think a lot of these battleground states
buck are going to move in the same direction because
we have a very nationalized race, and so a one
or two point move can be the difference between victory
(08:11):
or success. We're not talking about Trump winning by ten
points in any of these places. We're talking about the
difference being a one or two point win or loss,
particularly in the Midwest. But I think it's important to
have this data out there. This is the real data.
There's a lot of talk about polling. To me, why
would you use polling which is based on a sample
of a thousand voters or whatever the heck it is
(08:33):
when seventy five million of us have already voted in
many states that we expect to be close. You can
go in and look at the actual raw data files
and have a good sense for how things are going
so far.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
I have to say the fact that it is as
close as it is, it's funny. You can look at
this so many different ways. Kamal Harris is truly, truly
the worst candidate I have ever seen for office of
the presidency in my life time, and it is a
testament to the power of the Democrat machine. I would
argue that this is even still an election, right, So
(09:10):
that also makes me think it doesn't really matter who
the candidate is. Democrats can now effectively get forty eight
or forty nine percent of the vote with anyone. I
mean basically any human being that they decide should be president.
They can get forty eight or forty nine percent of
(09:31):
the electorate to vote for that person. So what you
end up having is months and months or in the
case of this campaign, you know, three or four months
of and billions of dollars spent to convince two percent
of the country maybe of the electorate. I should say,
two percent of the electorate to go one way or
the other, to show up or not show up. It's
(09:52):
pretty remarkable when you think about it.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
I mean, I have to say, what do you think
about releasing the early voting data from the Trump team directly?
Speaker 1 (10:01):
I think they feel good. It's funny because people you
can have this two ways, right, or you can approach
this two ways. Some people say, don't talk about it
until it's done, because you'll people will say, oh, it's
in the back. I actually don't agree. I think that
whenever a political campaign can claim momentum. What was Kamala's
team saying in August. Were they saying, oh, these polls,
(10:25):
don't pay attention to them. They were saying, we're up
five in Michigan, were up seven?
Speaker 3 (10:29):
You know they were.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
Because momentum matters. The psychology of politics, I would argue,
is much more momentum based than it is, you know,
underdog focus. So yeah, you don't want to take anything
for granted, of course, But if they if they had
date I'll tell you that. Here, here's a perfect way
to look at this play. If Kamala's campaign had data
(10:52):
showing that compared to twenty twenty, the female vote, the
urban vote was up dramatically. It isn't just what the
campaign would release. It is all you would hear about
on every Democrat allied media channel, show everything between now
and the election. Guarantee. I have zero doubt about that.
Speaker 4 (11:14):
So this is where we get into Oh, but you know,
we shouldn't get we shouldn't get too excited too soon.
No one's excited about anything really until the votes are
counted and Trump wins. But you have to look at
the numbers as they are, and the numbers are encouraging,
and I would argue that good numbers at this stage,
(11:35):
at halftime, as we'recalling a clay, encourages the last quarter
of play to be the strongest quarter of play for
the MAGA movement and for Trump supporters.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
And by the way we come back. I'll tell you, Okay,
give me the counter argument. What would the Kamala team
be arguing right now as they look at all these
early vote numbers. I'll tell you what I think they're
trying to say to their supporters. So you have a
good sense of where we are sitting as we sit
on election eve. Go vote, Go vote, go vote. We
(12:10):
want to celebrate with all of you on Wednesday. It
would be a joyful show and you can make it so.
But I want to tell you right now, a lot
of you out there trying to decide. We just talked Buck.
What I just say. How many dudes out there have
waited until Christmas Eve eve or Christmas Eve that is
December twenty third or December twenty fourth to get out
(12:32):
and take care of all of your all of your gifts.
I bet a huge number of you have found yourself
in that position because men tend to wait until the
absolute latest moment. So if that is you, why don't
you go ahead and take care of an incredible gift
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Stories of Freedom, Stories of America, inspirational stories that you
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Speaker 1 (13:53):
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Speaker 2 (13:55):
Find them on the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you
get your podcast. Welcome back in Clay Travis buck Sexton Show. Okay,
I know a lot of you have enjoyed following the
election gambling odds on Election Eve, Buck, and there's been
a lot of movement in this stuff. But I'm speaking
to you literally at this exact moment. The gambling markets
(14:18):
with over three billion dollars wager. At poly market, they
have Trump as a fifty eight percent chance to win,
Kamala Harris at forty two percent. The best Trump has
done is about sixty six in the last month, and
this was dead even about a month ago when Trump
(14:39):
started to pull away as the favorite. And in the
individual because I know people care about this in the
individual swing states, Trump is a favorite in Pennsylvania, and
we've been saying this for a while. I think whoever
wins Pennsylvania is going to be the next president of
the United States. Fifty six percent chance Trump wins Pennsylvania,
(15:00):
sixty seven percent, North Carolina sixty four percent, Nevada sixty
seven percent, Georgia those are and seventy seven percent Arizona.
So Trump is a big favorite or a favorite in
five of the seven battlegrounds. You can bet on this
at polymarket dot com. Michigan Kamala sixty percent favorite to win.
(15:26):
That would make Trump roughly forty percent, so close. And
then Wisconsin Kamala a fifty nine percent favorite, Trump a
forty two. So what are they saying on the Kamala
sidebuck I think they're saying, we are going to have
an incredible election day turnout. And I think they're saying
all three of the big ten states are going to
(15:47):
go in one direction, and they're going to go in
our direction. They are saying, we're gonna win Pennsylvania, Michigan,
and Wisconsin. And if she does that, and she wins Omaha,
she's the president of the United States. That's assuming that
New Hampshire doesn't flip, that Virginia doesn't flip. But she
could lose North Carolina, she could lose Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
(16:11):
She could lose all four of those battleground states. If
she won Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and Omaha, she would
get to two seventy and Trump would have two sixty eight.
That's the worst case scenario to me of how this
thing could shake out if it were going to be
a close election and Kamala was going to win. But
I think they are telling all their people, we're going
(16:33):
to storm the polls on election day. Women are going
to vote. I don't know about you, Buck, but I've
been watching. I mean, they're just basically lying. They're like
Trump's going to drag you out of your home by
your hair if you're pregnant, and put you in in
a mental institution and force you to give birth. I mean,
that's basically what they're arguing now. And they've got a
lot of women convinced that they're only going to vote
(16:54):
for president of the United States based on abortion.
Speaker 3 (16:56):
I mean, there are.
Speaker 2 (16:57):
Tens of millions of people. That's only issue they care about,
and they are trying to drive it home because they're
wrong on the economy, they're wrong on the border, they're
wrong on crime. That's their closing argument.
Speaker 1 (17:08):
Yeah, Trump is running against the machine in every sense.
He is outside of the machine in terms of his
creation as a political candidate. He's not a lifelong politician
as we know, and now he is having to run
against a totally Democrat machine candidate alongside the law fair
(17:29):
and everything else that has been used to try to
hobble his campaign up to this point. So it's in
some sense amazing that he's making as much of a
horse race of it as he is. With multiple indictments
and multiple impeachments and all these things that they've done
in all the insurrection and all.
Speaker 2 (17:48):
The you know what I mean, it's the fact that
it's close is staggering when you consider all the rig
job working against they would have broken broken other people
of this stuff.
Speaker 1 (17:59):
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additional fifty percent off your first month. The most expensive
non presidential political race in the history of the country.
(19:05):
Have you seen this? Ohio Senate race between Bernie Marino
and Shared Brown is estimated to cost at this point
four hundred and sixty seven million dollars. It is an
absolute razor thin margin. Bernie Marino is with us. We
(19:25):
are confident he is going to win. Bernie, great to
have you back. Why are Democrats throwing so much money
into this? I mean a Senate seat. I'm not saying
it's not an important and valuable thing, but half a
billion dollars what's going on here?
Speaker 5 (19:41):
Yeah, half a billion is probably where it ends up.
For sixty seven was probably a week or so ago.
It's that expensive for one simple reason. I win Republicans
control the United States Senate. And of course, if that happens,
it means DC won't be a state, por Rico won't
be a state. They won't pack the Supreme Court, they
won't give so this is ship to be legals. They
(20:01):
won't banfracking, We're not going to fund endless wars. This
is their agenda. So are their agenda? Ends Tomorrow night?
The minute I am declared the winner of this race.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
Bernie, good news, and I know you want everybody to
show up, and I just I bet we've said this
a billion times on this show. Go vote, go, vote,
go vote. But Emerson Polling just came out with a poll.
I think I saw it in the last few minutes.
They have Trump up twelve in the state of Ohio.
They have you up four. You are now and you
(20:33):
may not be comfortable with this, but in real clear politics,
you are now the favorite to win the race. I
know you want everybody to go vote, sprint through the
finish line, everything else, But does that reflect the momentum
that you are seeing on the ground in Ohio and
the fact that you have taken control of this race
in your mind.
Speaker 3 (20:51):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (20:51):
Absolutely, because look it comes out of this. If my
opponent is a fifty year career politician, he's run eighteen campaigns.
People are sick and tied to these people that go
to DC forever. This guy's racked up trillions of dollars
of debt, he's for the Green New Deal. He wants
men playing women's sports. I mean, that's not what Ohio
cares about. They want to turn the page and cancel
(21:13):
the Shriff Brown Show. And at the end of the day,
they just want their country back and they want leaders
that won't treat them like garbage. They want people who
go to DC that actually advocate for them, care about them. Actually,
I'll say it this way, that actually loved the American
people and love this country. And that's not who Sharon
Brown is. He's a total fake, a total fraud. And
We're gonna win this election tomorrow. We feel really good
(21:34):
about where we are. President Trump is gonna win Ohio
big time. Ohio loves President Trump, So we feel good
about where we are in the race.
Speaker 1 (21:42):
What's the closing message like, because my understanding, Clay was
in Pennsylvania, right, you just saw some of the last
ads for Casey there. Yes, they're running ads in Pennsylvania, Like, Yeah,
Bob Casey, he's a reasonable guy, he's gonna work with Trump,
he's gonna do the cross the aisle thing. You can try,
Bob Casey. I have a feeling I'll live in Ohio.
(22:03):
But Shared Brown's running a similar playbook in the closing hours,
What can you tell us about how that's going?
Speaker 3 (22:09):
Well?
Speaker 5 (22:10):
His messaging has been all over the board, generally, his
message is Bernie Marino is a bad guy.
Speaker 3 (22:16):
He's the only thing he's got.
Speaker 5 (22:17):
But what's interesting is his closing message is something I
didn't anticipate.
Speaker 3 (22:22):
His closing message.
Speaker 5 (22:23):
Is that he wants Ohio to vote for him because
he sent hundreds of billions of dollars to Ukraine.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
Like, you can't even make that up. It is so crazy.
Speaker 5 (22:32):
I mean, that is not even a top twenty issue
here in Ohio. My closings message wasn't delivered by my
amazing team or my campaign consultants. It was delivered by
a six year old in first grade in Columbus, Ohio,
when I went to visit that school last week, when
he looked at me and said, you're Bernie Marino and
you're gonna win. And I said, well, why do you
say that? He said to me, because Sharon Brown is
(22:54):
just too liberal for Ohio.
Speaker 3 (22:57):
I love that.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
What will you be looking for in the state of
Ohio on election day tomorrow where you think you'll be
able to glean how the race is going. We've been
number one in Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati at different points
during the course of this year, so obviously the state
loves this show what part of Ohio do you think?
(23:19):
And I know all of it is the answer, but
what would you like to be able to have access
to right now a day early to have a sense
for how this is going to go?
Speaker 5 (23:28):
Well, you have to understand that in Ohio early voting
is over. It ended yesterday. Over two point five million
people in Ohio voted already, so that's done. There's no
voting today. Polls open tomorrow at six point thirty until
seven thirty pm. Republicans have a two hundred and sixty
thousand vote advantage over Democrats as I talk to you
(23:50):
right now, thirty hours before this is over. What we
need is every last Republican to go out and vote tomorrow.
This has got to be a landslide election. In that
Emerson Pole, the most important number was in the up
four is that share. Brown's at forty five. So we
got to have a double digit win tomorrow. And the
way we do that is get everybody who's listening on
(24:10):
this call, make a plan to go vote tomorrow. If
you've already voted, find a friend, find a relative that
you can go take to the polling booth, or watch
their kids while they pull or do whatever you can,
but we have to swamp the vote tomorrow, not not
only to the people of Ohio, to the people of
this country. This election matters. We've got to vote like
our country depends on it, because it does.
Speaker 1 (24:32):
Bernie Marina with us now running for Senate against Shared
Brown in Ohio, and it's a critical seat, as he's
pointed out, I mean, they're spending hundreds of millions of
dollars on this race because it's control of the Senate
really that we're talking about here. It's not just another
Senate seat because of the way the numbers are likely
to play out here. To that end, Bernie, we get
(24:52):
so many people that you know they've already voted earlier,
or they're about to go vote there. Sure they're about
to do it if they haven't voted yet, but they're concerned.
There's a very palpable, very real fear out there that
there's gonna be shenanigans. I'm just wondering, can you speak
to any election integrity measures that you know the rnc's
(25:13):
got in place, pole watchers, lawyers. I mean, just so
that people because I think that if they feel like
it's all going to be more likely on the up
and up. There are a lot of people on our side,
on the right who are more likely to make sure
they get there, especially if they're Day of voters.
Speaker 5 (25:27):
Well, first of all, and Ohio were in great shape. Ohio,
we're gonna have a result tomorrow night. It will happen
pretty quickly. We tabulate our early and absentee votes right
at seven thirty pm Eastern. There's a possibility this gets
this race gets called early. So Ohio, don't worry about Ohio.
The other states. President Trump and Michael Wattley, the chairman
of the R and C, has done a phenomenal job
(25:48):
of protecting the ballot. We've had lawsuits that we've been
victorious on all over America. So I think we're going
to have a good election tomorrow. Look, they're not going
to cheat. They're trying to lie. They're just trying to
pretend there's something they're not. Look, they're running on a
campaign of hope, except that the hope that they have
is that you forget the last four.
Speaker 3 (26:06):
Years I mean, Bernie.
Speaker 1 (26:08):
They're hoping Hitler doesn't win, is really what they seem
to be telling everybody.
Speaker 5 (26:12):
So they hope that Americans forget about the twelve million illegals, generationally,
high inflation, instability all of the world, are com messes in.
Speaker 3 (26:20):
Our cities that are a disaster.
Speaker 5 (26:23):
So that's what they're hoping for, is that we just
have amnesia and that we pretend that Joe Biden Kamala
Harris didn't exist. But the reality is Ohio and Americans
are too smart for that. We're gonna win big demorro.
But everybody listening, make up plan for tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (26:36):
You go out there and vote.
Speaker 5 (26:37):
And if it's a two hour line or a three
hour line or a four hour line, you remember what
the people who came before us gave up. They give
up their lives, they give up their fortunes. They give
us his freedom. You stand in line and you vote,
and you make your voice heard. That's the most important
thing we can do tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (26:53):
You are surging.
Speaker 2 (26:54):
We're talking to Bernie Marino and helping Republicans take back
control of the Senate. Tim Sheehe is dominating right now
in Montana, West Virginia is a pickup. Are you seeing
the same thing? We got listeners all over the country.
I was with Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania Saturday. You got
Mike Rodgers up in Michigan. You've got Eric Hovedy in Wisconsin,
(27:15):
Carrie Lake in Arizona, Sam Brown and Nevada. A rising
tide can lift all boats. There are a lot of
Senate races out there that could be decided by a
couple of points. What are you seeing on the battleground
map overall for the Senate.
Speaker 5 (27:30):
I mean, it's a chance that we have in epic class,
I mean Nella Domenici in New Mexico, Honkow and Virginia.
You know, it's possible that we all win. And here's
what I'll tell you, because we've had a lot of
conversations between us, this would be a freshman class that's
going to go there to actually get the agenda done.
We're going to secure the border, have energy dominance, peace
(27:51):
around the world. We're actually going to cut the deficit.
We're going to make certain that we shrink the size
of scale the federal government. We're going to get normalcy
back to them America. So if you're in any of
those states, go out there and vote vote Republican all
the way down to ticket. You know, if President Trump
wins Arizona and everybody who votes for President Trump votes
for Kerry Lake, she'll win, same as Sam in Wisconsin.
(28:12):
So that's what we got to do. You got to
go in there and vote. Don't you just vote for
President Trump, go all the way down to ticket.
Speaker 3 (28:17):
It's really important.
Speaker 5 (28:19):
This is the election we'll talk to our kids and
grandkids about because this is the election that America decides
who it is. We're the country that's founded on freedom,
personal responsibility, a small government that gets out of our way.
It's not a socialist country. It's not a communist country.
We're not the country of Bernie Sanders. That's not who
we are. We're going to reject that tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (28:40):
Bernie Marino, everybody, Bernie. We've got a lot of confidence
in you. We got a lot of Ohio listeners, and
I know that they're going to get out there and
get it done. So we'll let you get back to it,
focus on it, and just promise us when you have
a victory lap to run, you'll come and do one
here on the show.
Speaker 5 (28:56):
Absolutely, I'd be happy to you know, this is a
big sports state. So if you'll have me, if I
win tomorrow, we'll give our voters updates every once in
a while on your show, and thank you for everything
that you guys have done. You're making a difference.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
Amen, by the way you are killing it. Get out Ohio.
Put Bernie Marino in the Senate, have fun this last
twenty four hours, and enjoy tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (29:18):
You got it.
Speaker 2 (29:18):
Thank you, guys, Bernie Marino.
Speaker 1 (29:22):
Buck.
Speaker 2 (29:22):
I mean, look, West Virginia again, We're focused. We want
Trump to win, but I think you need to understand
the overall Senate map, West Virginia is a win. Thank
you West. I was trying not to curse, by God, Virginia.
So you guys got it to fifty to fifty. Problem
is with fifty to fifty, obviously, the VP is the
tie breaker in the Senate. We saw that with Kamala
(29:43):
too often in the last four years. Tim Sa sheehe
and in Montana is looking great. Bernie is now favored
in Ohio. All the polls, he's surging. And then I'm
telling y'all McCormick in Pennsylvania, Eric Hovedy in Wisconsin, and
Mike Rogers in Michigan. He just ran through a lot
of that list. Sam Brown were up right now in Nevada.
(30:06):
Carrie Lake Arizona is storming the polls, Buck, I mean,
Republicans have a two hundred thousand early vote lead in Arizona.
This could be a transformative race in the Senate. Trump
matters a great deal, but senators have six year terms.
So if you flip the Senate and Republicans take a
three or four lead, it's gonna be really hard to
(30:28):
suddenly take back control of the Senate in any of
the upcoming election cycles.
Speaker 1 (30:33):
Look, it's gonna be a very interesting night tomorrow night.
This is the point of the game. And you're like,
whoever has more points on the board is gonna win.
I Bernie Marino's run a great campaign, and he's clearly
better for the country and would be a better option
than his opponent, Shared Brown. And I will just say this,
(30:54):
you know that something's up when no Republicans in the
Senate or when running for and and I should say
Clay are pretending to be Democrats to win. You know
what I mean? This is this is not happening anywhere.
There's no Republican who's in a tight race who's like,
you know what, I think Kamala Harris is really smart
and I really want to work.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
With people to reach across the Aisle with Kamala I
can't wait. That gives you a really good sense for
what their number show.
Speaker 6 (31:21):
But it's it's not even just the numbers there, right
of course, yes, it's also it's so dishonest because they
will not do that at all. Shared Brown will do
exactly what Chuck Schumer tells him. And I'm not even
just saying this because we just had Bernie Bernie on
This is the.
Speaker 1 (31:35):
Maneuver they do. They they have a huge advantage with
the legacy media. You know Kamala. They spent a billion
dollars in what four months on Kamala errors, And they're
just trying to use just blunt force propaganda to convince people,
whether it's Senate or President Presidency Clay that the people
that that they're voting for or you know that that
(31:57):
you're voting for people who aren't what they so clearly are,
which is left wing partisan democrats who will do exactly
what the machine tells them. All the money that's being spent,
right is actually to obviously demonize Republicans and convince independence
that Democrats aren't actually democrats. But there's something else. Some
a maverick I'm in the middle. I do my you
know what I mean, It's just so dishonest. It's so dishonest.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
True, That's why you can't split, right. I understand some
of you out there are like, oh, I'm by partisan,
like I'm gonna vote Trump, but I'm also good. No,
if you are voting Trump, you need to be voting
for the Republican candidates in your jurisdictions, in your states
and your congressional districts, because otherwise you're saying you want Trump,
but you want him kneecaps so that he can't actually
(32:40):
accomplish anything.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
Yeah, it makes ticket splitting makes no sense to me
like that that I'm just like, why even my bod
if you're gonna give Trump a Democrats Senate and House,
you know what they're gonna do, dig in their heels,
impeach him and act like maniacs the whole time. That's
all they're gonna do. That's all they're gonna do. I
guarante I would place a bet with anybody on it.
(33:03):
It's quite clear to me. And you know, one of
the big problems we face here is that there are
so many Democrats out there, unfortunately who lack you know,
strength comes from within and that intercolm, that piece of
having the stamina, the oomph to get get it done
and know that you can count on yourself. You know,
if you feel like you're lacking a little bit of that.
You know a lot of Democrats not enough tea, let's
(33:24):
be honest talking about the guys now, not enough testosterone,
and there are other things that you need to have
the biochemistry balanced forward to get the most out of
your day, to be as productive and as as much
of a champ as you can. This is where chalk
comes in. Telling you right now, people take chalk. They're
voting Republican because they can get what they need out
(33:45):
of their day. They don't need the government to state
to step in and be like, oh, I'm Brian Stelter,
I can't do anything. You need to help me. I
need a bottle.
Speaker 3 (33:53):
No.
Speaker 1 (33:54):
Chalk makes it so that you are fired up and
ready to get after it day in and day out. Guys,
as we get older, no matter how right wing you are,
somethings start to drop. It's natural. It's just the circle
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(34:17):
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Speaker 3 (35:01):
Ready to go, Ready to rock.
Speaker 2 (35:03):
Peek out with the guys on the Sunday Hang with
Clay and Buck podcast, a new episode every Sunday. Find
it on the iHeart app or wherever you get your podcasts.
Welcome back in Clay Travis buck Sexton show. Let me
tell you Marsha Blackburn top of the next hour. She's
running for the Senate in my home state of Tennessee.
Will be on the ballot tomorrow two thirty Steve Bannon.
(35:25):
Those are obviously East Coast times. Lots of people weighing in,
but a couple of VIP emails. Chris says, I'm nervous.
How is this different from twenty two? I feel like
we get the same confident vibes. We were so confident.
Why would this be different. Ps I'm a Kentucky football fan,
so forgive me for being pessimistic. But the very funny like, So,
(35:46):
here's the deal. We won. Republicans did the overall vote
in twenty twenty two. It was not that one percent
that we needed in order to carry everybody over. I'm
saying the same thing right now. All of the signs
are there. I was gonna say there was a red
wave in twenty twenty two. It just splashed in the
(36:07):
wrong places. And that red wave, I should know, did
give us control of the House through places, through seats
in Congress from California and New York specifically, So you know,
it was just we've warned about this. It's going to
be close in some of these key states. I also
think there were some particularly weak candidates in twenty twenty two.
(36:28):
I don't think anyone think Donald Trump's are particularly weak candadate.
He's already been president.
Speaker 1 (36:31):
One.
Speaker 2 (36:32):
What Buck just said is also important. New York California
won the House in twenty twenty two. Maybe your state
is not going to be competitive in the Senate or
in the presidency, but you can control who wins the
House if you're in New York in California. In fact,
it is probably those two states that will decide who
controls the House.
Speaker 1 (36:53):
Go vote no matter where you live.
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