September 25, 2024 • 36 mins
Trump leads polling among Notre Dame students, who voted for Democrats overwhelmingly in '16 and '20. Voters tell MSNBC Jan. 6 doesn't matter to them. In 2005, Kamala supported handgun ban in San Francisco. Pelosi gets snippy with Jake Tapper. Ryan Girdusky joins Clay and Buck to discuss the latest election data.
Follow Clay & Buck on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/clayandbuck
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Oh well, come in hour number two Clay Travis buck
Sexton show. Appreciate all of you hanging out with us.
As we have prepared to go very soon under forty
days until the election. We are inching closer and closer.
We want to continue to emphasize to all of you,
get out, make your voices heard, vote as early as
(00:22):
you possibly can. Buck interesting data points, and we're going
to talk with Ryan Gurdusky here in a moment. But
I saw this come across and I thought it was
super interesting. So Notre Dame has been doing polling of
its college students for many years and they say, Okay,
(00:44):
you're going to vote for the Republic and you're going
to vote for the Democrat. And this year Notre Dame students,
according to this poll that just came out, they are
going to vote for Donald Trump forty eight to forty six.
Other Libertarian candidates whatnot will get additional support.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Indiana.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
Notre Dame is in Indiana, in South Bend, Indiana, Mayor
Pete's beloved hometown for those of you who wonder where
Mayor Pete came from. But it is in many ways
a melting pot buck of Midwestern voters Now, Notre Dame
has very much of a national brand, so I'm sure
they have students on that campus from all fifty states.
(01:27):
But I would assume that the overwhelming majority of the
geography of Notre Dame residents is Northeast or Midwest, right.
I don't think there's some massive amount of Southern kids
that make the trip to Notre Dame. I don't think
that they draw overwhelmingly from the West coast. All those things. Again,
(01:48):
all fifty states would be represented, but I would stay
in general, as a Catholic institution, a lot of people
from the Northeast, a lot of people from the Midwest.
With that square roughly buck with what you would expect
of their student body. In other words, this is not Alabama,
this is not this is not Tennessee, this is not
some SEC school fan base. Forty eight forty six for
(02:09):
Trump is actually pretty interesting. And then I want to
hit you with these two data points. Buck and Ryan Gerduski,
who's going to join us the bottom of the hour,
shared this. In twenty twenty, Biden won among Notre Dame
students sixty six to twenty nine. So four years later,
(02:30):
Trump is now beating Kamala with Notre Dame students. In
twenty twenty, they voted sixty six for twenty nine. In
twenty sixteen, they voted fifty nine to twenty four for
Hillary Clinton. Suddenly Trump is winning this college campus after
losing massively in sixteen and twenty. This is to me
(02:53):
a sign of what you might start to see in
the Midwest. Does it jump out to you, I mean,
that's a pretty massive shift in four years.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
Yes, But I can't say it's surprising really, because when
you look at what Kamala Harris would have to do
to beat Trump, you would have to say, here are
the constituencies within the you know, one hundred and one
hundred and fifty million votes something like that.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
Is one hundred and fifty six twenty twenty.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
Yeah, here are the uh, you know, the the two
or three million people spread across the following states that
will make well, there might be a lot less than that,
but I'm just talking about who she's trying to have.
Is the addressable market? You know they would say in
business right, who who is it that she's trying to get?
Is Kamala going to outperform Joe Biden with black voters?
(03:46):
I think the answer is no, I agree. Is Kamala
going to outperform And we're gonna talk to Ryan Grduski
at the bottom of the hour about this. Kama going
to outperform Biden and Hillary with women voters doesn't seem
like that's really the case. So this is where you
get into who matters in the persuadables. Did you see
there was a poll out that Trump is winning the
(04:07):
national Hispanic vote right now, Yes, which is stunning. Okay,
a majority of the nationwide Hispanic vote. That's fantastic. Into
all of our Hispanic American listeners, this is great news.
We're very pleased. But Hispanics are congregated in states that, unfortunately,
are not really up for grabs, right, I mean, most
Hispanics are not in states that are the battlegrounds. So
(04:30):
that doesn't you know what I mean, that doesn't really matter.
For Kamo to win, she'd have to win. I don't
even know how many more black votes she could get
in those states than Biden got, right, and she's underperforming
right now. She'd have to flip a lot of women
voters who already voted for Biden and came over to
her side. I don't think that's gonna you know, or
(04:51):
rather she had to flip. A lot of voters were
female in general. I don't know where they would come from.
And then you have the white working class.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
That's it. She's already got. You know.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
You know what I'm saying, Everybody who is going to
vote for Biden is already going to vote for Kamala.
What does she bring to the table that Biden didn't
in terms of voters? I just don't see it. And
we'll talk to Ryan and he'll tell me if I'm wrong,
because he likes to do that, so we'll see what
he says.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
So this, again, Notre Dame student poll, I just think
is super fascinating as a data point.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
The other one that I saw.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
Buck is do you see the Gallup party registration poll
that came out that now has Republicans in the Gallup
poll up forty eight to forty five, and it has
nearly mirrored to perfection the overall national vote tally. There
is now talk out there that Trump may be able
(05:48):
to contend in the national popular vote as well. And
this is honestly not a crazy contention. I mean, Quinnipiac
yesterday had Trump up one CNN had either Kamala up
one or a tie. The point on this is, if
Trump is close to even he's gonna win a landslide
in the electoral college. I think there are a lot
(06:09):
of panic and nervousness coming up. And also I think
some of the closing arguments are not actually registering at all. MSNBC,
did you see this? Buck had a panel of voters
in the Midwest and they wanted to talk about what
they thought of January sixth, and it did not go
like MSNBC hoped that it would go.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
Can we play the jan six panel? Please talk to.
Speaker 4 (06:34):
Me about your level of interest in the terminal charges
and so forth. February sixth, January sixth.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
So I remember that day.
Speaker 4 (06:42):
I know he was the standing president.
Speaker 5 (06:45):
I'm not familiar with the chargers that are getting brought
against him for that.
Speaker 1 (06:48):
I don't I'm not following that charge for the There's
multiple court cases going on.
Speaker 6 (06:53):
I'm just not familiar with them.
Speaker 4 (06:55):
I mean, that doesn't sound like it's going to be
a factor in deciding who to vote for. No, Okay,
so when I say January sixth, what do you think?
Speaker 5 (07:02):
Oh, I just remember seeing it on the news, like
all the riots and stuff. Don't really know what it
was about her what happened though.
Speaker 4 (07:07):
I mean, how did it make you feel when you
saw it?
Speaker 5 (07:09):
Oh?
Speaker 7 (07:09):
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (07:10):
I don't really feel any way about it. I don't.
I mean, people showed their emotion. I guess probably in
the wrong way, but it happened, Buck.
Speaker 1 (07:20):
I mean, I think this is how most normal people,
nearly four years later respond to January sixth I think
Democrats drove it into the ground. Whatever last vestige of
power it had they drung out in the midterms. And
I love her trying to just probe what it has
to Really, no, no, not at all. Well, she thinks,
(07:40):
whoever this reporter is, I don't even I don't know.
I'm just hearing her voice.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
But she's a journalist and she's asking about this, and
she's not getting the answer she wants.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
You know, you know what.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
She thinks it's the worst attack on this country since
the Civil War, which means it's worse than nine to
eleven in her mind. It's worse than Pearl Harbor in
her mind, which is insane both counts. I mean, just
completely divorced from reality. But journalists have been programmed like
robots to say this and you are you know, at
(08:10):
this stage play to step away from that would be
an unpardonable sin among the journals.
Speaker 2 (08:16):
So yeah, I think that.
Speaker 3 (08:18):
They are great have greatly overestimated how much January sixth
is going to help.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
Them its selection.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
I also think that there's a sense that there was
an unwillingness to allow the American people to just have
a free and fair election because of all the prosecutions
of Trump. You know, if January sixth is so bad.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
The worst attack since the Civil War.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
Why can't you just let the American people then have
their referendum? And whether they think it was so bad,
why do you have to have all the sham trials,
Why do you have the you know, the civil trials
and the criminal trials, and you know what I mean,
there's something bizarre about all of that, because if it's
so clear to you that this was such an all
that January was so awful that it makes Trump unacceptable, well,
(09:04):
won't the American people find that way? The answer we
all know it was, of course, the American people don't
think that. Journals think that, and Democrats who hate Trump
and people Trump derangement syndrome. Think it was the worst
attack since, you know, since the Civil War.
Speaker 2 (09:18):
Whatever.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
Yeah, And I just I look at this Buck, and
I can't escape the conclusion that Kamala Harris's campaign is
really starting to flounder. And I can't stop laughing about
Biden's team going to argue either. I saw our good
(09:42):
friend Moron Sunny Houston on the View compared Biden to
George Washington. But that's really what they're going to try
to roll with if Kamala Harris wins. But if she loses,
and I do think she's gonna lose, it's gonna be
one of the most epic election nights and election weeks
(10:03):
that we have ever seen because Democrats are going to
turn on each other with a fury and everything we've
been saying on this program, Wait, are we sure we
want to elevate the least popular vice presidential candidate of
all time? Does it really make sense to have somebody
as our nominee who's never gotten a vote? You know
what else is going to get dissected in.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
A big way.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
Buck, Tim Walls as the VP over Josh Shapiro is
one of the most If she loses Pennsylvania by twenty
five or thirty thousand votes, as she might, it will
be seen as one of the most catastrophic vice presidential
choices of all time. Now, you may be right that
Jos Shapiro wasn't that excited to hit hitch his cart
(10:43):
to Kamala Harris's campaign. But I just get I get
giddy just thinking about how this is all going to
play out.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
I was wondering about this because the Hillary. One of
my great regrets is that I was so elated in
twenty sixteen when Trump won and how to just find
my friends who were conservatives. So because it was I mean,
I lived in I lived in the Flat Iron district
of New York.
Speaker 2 (11:05):
You were close to Hillary's celebration party.
Speaker 3 (11:08):
My big regret is that I just didn't think, dude,
go over there, right.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
I could have walked.
Speaker 3 (11:15):
I could have walked to the Javits Convention Center and
just seen the wreckage of the hopes.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
And dreams of the Hillary campaign.
Speaker 3 (11:21):
They were all because I heard later they were all crying,
and you know, all the male feminists were crying, and
you know they were asking their wives to hold them.
And anyway, I wish I had gone to see that
do you know where Kamala's campaign headquarters is. I had
to look this up, so I'm not trying to put
you Well, they kept it in Delaware, right because kept
it in Wilmington, Delaware, which I don't even you know,
(11:44):
you don't hear much about that. I never I've taken
a train through. I've never been in Wilmington, Delaware. There's
a part of me that's like, man, it might be
kind of fun to be at the Kamala headquarters or
with an earshot of it on election night, but it'd
be really sad if you're there and they're actually very
happy because she won.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
So that's a dangerous game to play.
Speaker 1 (12:05):
Story just breaking buck, This is interesting. I mean it's
not groundbreaking, but Kamala Harris says she owns a handgun.
In two thousand and five, she wanted handguns mandatory confiscated
in San Francisco.
Speaker 2 (12:22):
Do you think she actually owns a handgun? I don't.
I'm going to tell you this, Yeah, I I do.
I do not believe her. And the thing is we'll
never really be able to you know.
Speaker 3 (12:33):
It's she could say that she bought it from somebody
in a private sale or something and there's always ways
around this.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
I don't know. I don't believe it. Do you believe it?
The only reason I think she might have had a
handgun is because she will choose the DA.
Speaker 1 (12:47):
Yeah, because like DA's you know, they they if she had,
if she.
Speaker 3 (12:52):
Has it, well, here's what I would say. I do
not believe that she went of her own accord to
buy a handgun as a private citizen. If she has
a handgun, it's a leave behind from when she's the DA.
And I would say I would bet money that she
has not been to a shooting range in I don't know,
five years. Wouldn't there be a video of her somewhere
shooting if she actually had a handgun, like that she
(13:14):
legit instead of somebody just giving her a gun in
a case that she put in her car and just
kind of drove around with or whatever.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
You know, Well, if if somebody asked me, hey, Bud,
if the fuck are you a gun owner? Be like
am I a gun owner?
Speaker 7 (13:25):
Like?
Speaker 3 (13:26):
Oh man, I was like, I got I've got my
I've got my Grizzly nine millimeter from Bear Creek. I've
got my BC fifteen, I've got a clock nineteen, I've
got a staccato c too. You know, i'd list all
the guns and all the all the optics and all.
This is what people own guns can do because they
actually pay attention to this stuff. I wish they had
said what kind of gun do you have? Well, I
think Trump, because I think she would have said one
of the ones that goes bang. You know, she has
(13:47):
no idea. I think you're right on that. We'll read
into some of more of these stories. I remember she
called Donald Trump a liar for saying that she wanted
to take away people's guns in two thousand and five.
She would have she supported the banning of buying, selling,
or possessing handguns in San Francisco. She was going to
take people's guns away in San Francisco. It's crazy. We'll
(14:12):
dive into that here in just a second. I just
mentioned Barrack Creek Arsenal because I've got my BC fifteen.
I'm going shooting this weekend out at the range. So
that's the Bear Creek Arsenal, one of their AR fifteen's.
You know, they make whole complete firearms. They also have
the best selection and the best prices on uppers for
your rifle that you will find absolutely anywhere. I've been
(14:33):
to their factory in North Carolina, as you know, did
some shooting there. We had a great time. And this
weekend I'm going out with the CEO of Bear Creek
and we're just gonna have a whole day at the range.
We're going to try out all the different Bear Creek
Barcreek pistols and rifles that I have, and we're going
to just put them through the test, because so far,
every time I go out to the range, I'm like,
I just wish I had known about Barrack Creek Arsenal
(14:54):
a long time ago. And look, if you're saying, you know, Buck,
I don't have any room in the gun safe right
now for another rifle. Get in upper receiver from Bear
Creek Arsenal. You can get them for a couple of
you know, in the couple of hundred bucks range. The
prices are unbeatable. And I'm talking about full bolt carrier,
everything that you need to just change up the caliber
(15:15):
on your rifle. Bear Creek Arsenal has you covered. Go
to Barcreek Arsenal dot com use coupon code Buck. You
save ten percent off your first order. Also hunting season,
they've got great rifle, super accurate, unbeatable prices.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
Hunting season, gets yourself a new rifle.
Speaker 3 (15:31):
Right We're in the season right now in a lot
of places, or are coming up on the season. Depends
where you are, depends what you're going for. Bearcreekarsenal dot
com use that coupon code buck. You've got a nice
ten percent discount off your first order. And also, just
let me say, Bear Creek Arsenal are patriots and their
Second Amendment defenders. They're all about our right as Americans
(15:51):
as citizens to bear arms. And you should stand with
companies as two way people. You should stand with companies
that do what they do, which is stand with show
like this one. They don't run away from all. We're
firearms company, but we don't want people to know that
we sow firearms. There's a lot of that out there.
I'll tell you Bear Creek Arsenal the real deal. Go
to Bear Creek Arsenal dot com. Use that coupon code
(16:12):
buck for ten percent off. Two guys walk up to
a mic.
Speaker 8 (16:18):
Anything goes Clay Travis and Fuck Sexton. Find them on
the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
Ah Yes Nancy Pelosi. This is a fun one.
Speaker 3 (16:31):
She got a little snippy with Jake Tapper because mister
Tapper and CNN started reading.
Speaker 2 (16:38):
Some of Trump's criticisms of Comma. This is cut twenty player.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
Donald Trump saying that Kamala Harins says bigger cognitive problems
than Joe Biden.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
Why would you even cover that?
Speaker 7 (16:48):
This is a person who's not on the level. He
is their nominee for president, He is incompetent. Let's not
even talk about the silliness of it all and the
weirdness of it all, the assault on women that it is.
Speaker 2 (17:02):
We're not going to talk issues.
Speaker 3 (17:04):
I just I just love that that Pelosi is like
ready to send Tapper to bed without his supper.
Speaker 2 (17:08):
She's like, how don't dare you, Jake?
Speaker 3 (17:11):
I know what time it is. We're supposed to be
all in for Kamala. I'm not gonna lie.
Speaker 1 (17:15):
I secretly respect that Nancy Pelosi just makes so many
people her bitch. I mean, she just slaps people around, right,
Like how many actual Republicans will slap around media figures
like Nancy Pelosi does.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
I don't agree with her politics, but I.
Speaker 3 (17:31):
Respect she's with brass knuckles and we don't have that
on our side.
Speaker 1 (17:37):
There's so many people who are like, oh, if we're
just a little nice or maybe they'll respect us more.
And Nancy Pelosi just walks in and slaps that phony
Jake Tapper right in the face live on television. I
kind of respect it. I mean, I disagree with her,
but I respect it.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
Pelosi.
Speaker 3 (17:52):
All this talk about the new iPhone sixteen reminds me
that we still get jazz about a new device and
what it can do. Phones will be with us for
the rest of our lives, in one form or another,
and so with that cell phone build that comes with it.
Puretalk wants your cell phone to be the lowest it
can be, and there's good logic that goes with it.
They can offer superior service at the lowest price. You'll
(18:13):
be a customer for life. And one way that Puretalk
does that is making sure you're not paying for data
you don't use. Most cell phone companies want that. That's
how they're making their money. They're charging you more and
not giving you what you need. Puretalk has plans that
started twenty five dollars with data that's going to be
enough for a vast majority of the phone customer consumers
out there having one of these plans, keep your cell phone,
(18:34):
they'll lower for just twenty five dollars a month. With
pure Talk you get a limited talk text and five
gigs of data plus mobile hotspot that's enough to watch
ten hours of video. Make the switch to Puretalk. Dial
pound two fifty, say Clay and Buck. You'll save fifty
percent off your first month. Again Dial pound two five
zero say Clay and Buck. We walk back in Clay
(18:55):
Travis Buck Sexton Show. We are joined now by Ryan Gerdusky,
National populist newsletter, founder of the seventeen seventy six Project Pack,
and I've been reading his substack I believe it is,
which has a lot of data and analytics as it
pertains to election data out there.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
And Ryan, I want to start with this.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
I think I read this on Friday of last week
or thereabouts, maybe over the weekend. You went into the
cross tabs and kind of looked at the data coming
out of Pennsylvania and you've compared it to twenty sixteen
and twenty twenty and your theory of why these polls
have drastically under reported Donald Trump's strength and sixteen and
(19:38):
twenty is older white voters being underrepresented and not accurately
reflected in poll results. Walk our audience through it. I
found it to be a really persuasive argument.
Speaker 6 (19:52):
Right. So, on the National Populous newsletter on Substack, which
is my substack, Nate Cohen, who runs the New York
Times polling staff at Sanna University, they had Trump tied
nationally but losing Pennsylvania by four. And the big question
was why Nate Cohene even went through Twitter and said
again was responding people saying, well, it's not through this
(20:12):
sub group. It's not through this subgroup. And the group
he'd never mentioned was seniors. In the New York Times
Santa Pol Nationally, Trump is winning seniors by six. This
is a group that he won them by four last time,
and he won them by I think it was nine
the time. Before then, republic seniors had voted Republican in
every election, majority in every election going back at least
(20:33):
twenty five years. So it is a very good assumption
to say seniors will be voting Republican this time as well.
Seniors in Pennsylvania vote to the right of seniors nationally.
So in twenty twelve, Romney won seniors nationally by twelve.
He won seniors in Pennsylvania by fourteen. In sixteen, Trump
won them by nine nationally, ten in Pennsylvania. In twenty
(20:54):
Trump won them by four nationally seven in Pennsylvania, so
they vote to the right. In the New York Times poll,
Trump is winning seniors nationally by six but losing seniors
in Pennsylvania by three. Now I know they say, don't
get sit there, don't get so tied up in in
cross tabs. But at the same exact time, this is
not a cross tub of like Hispanics, which make a
(21:15):
five percent of Pennsylvania, so they have extremely high margins
of error. Seniors in Pennsylvania are a third of voters.
The margin of era is fairly low. He probably will
be winning seniors by close to ten points, which is
a if the national poll is correct at six, they'll
probably win close to ten points among seniors. And that
thirteen point difference is the margin between him winning or losing.
(21:38):
And I only made a big point of the New
York Times poll is because in all these polling aggregators.
Nate Silver wrote to the White House, the economists, the
New York Times, Sanapol puts a lot they put a
lot of weight into that polling institution. So when they
all sit there and say, well, Harris's favor to win Pennsylvania,
a lot of it is because of the New York
Times sandapol, which I think personally as this flaw of
(22:01):
not correctly waiting the senior vote. And it's the same mistake,
I mind you, that they made in twenty twenty and
in twenty sixteen, but more especially in twenty twenty when
they were looking at how Biden and Trump were going
to do. It was the same exact group because liberal seniors,
older liberals who like listen to Rachel Mattow every day
and thinks she's the voice of God, really love to
(22:22):
tell strangers their opinions on Donald Trump.
Speaker 3 (22:25):
Ryan, if you had to assess whether the Kamala campaign
is based on the data aware that they are behind,
they obviously won't say that.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
Is it clear enough?
Speaker 3 (22:39):
You think that even that they would know, even if
they won't say it publicly, that they're trailing. And also,
what's your assessment of Kamala with women?
Speaker 6 (22:49):
So that's a really great question, abou Kamala of women
because the perception out in the media, and I guess
The perception for even myself as a voter, was that
Kamala is going to break all the numbers of women,
record breaking support among women. And I decided on the
substack National Popyist newsletter substack to break down all the polling.
And I broke it down between two sets of polls,
(23:09):
polls that have Kamala's surging with more than a four
percent margin of victory nationwide and polls that have a
very very close election. And shockingly, Kamala performs with women
the same exact way. In both sets of polls. She
beats Donald Trump on average by fifteen points. No matter
if the race shows at being very tied or the
(23:31):
ratios that Kamala blowout the polling, the pulling difference is
not among women. She does not perform any better with
women than Joe Biden did or Hillary Clinton did. It's
they both had about a fifteen point margin over Donald
Trump in twenty twenty and twenty sixteen, respectively. So she
is not winning over many new women voters. This whole
(23:52):
perception that there's this army of pro choice women who
never voted before and they're voting for the very first time,
that one isn't true historically, but true, it's not even
in the data this time. The entire difference is among men.
The big question is is Donald Trump going to perform
his Joe Biden numbers among men when he won men
by a four point margin or somewhere around there, or
(24:14):
is going to perform among men like he did against
Hillary Clinton, which was an eleven point margin. That's the
entire really difference. And they break into different subcategories like
black men, Hispanic men, YadA, YadA, YadA. But it's the
question of men is how well is Donald Trump performing
with men? Is this the men the man election, because
with women it seems fairly unchanged completely. When it comes
(24:36):
to the voting data, look, we're starting to see early
votes come in. A lot of states do not have
voter registration by political party, like Virginia. Virginia has already
had one hundred and fifty thousand people vote in it,
but we don't know if there Republicans or Democrats because
they don't register voters by party. We just know if
their conservative districts or their liberal districts, and a lot
of conservative districts voting. Early voting turnout is over one
(24:58):
hundred percent of where it was twenty twentieth this time,
and in some liberal districts they have hit that point
and they've even surpassed it, like in fair Fact City.
But what we're looking at right now is a lot
of mail in data, and the mail in data in
the ballad requests in Pennsylvania, Democrats are down fairly large.
The numbers are about four percentage points tighter than they
(25:19):
were back in twenty twenty. In North Carolina they were
down big, big, big time. As far as people with
early mail ballad requests, does that mean that they won't
vote at all because they didn't get the early ballot requests,
I don't know. But the early ballot requests for Democrats
where they're going to mail in tons of votes and
basically have these votes ready to count it on election day,
(25:40):
that doesn't look like it's happening so far.
Speaker 2 (25:43):
We're talking to Ryan Gardeski. Okay, two parter here for you.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
Ryan Buck and I both believe that Joe Biden is
going to outperform Kamala. That is, Biden's twenty twenty numbers
are going to outperform kamala Is twenty twenty four numbers.
I'm curious if you would agree with that. That's nationwide,
not on an individual state basis. Second part of this question,
if you had to place a wager right now, would
(26:08):
you place a wager on Trump to win in twenty
twenty four based on the data analytics as you see it,
or would you place a wager on Kamala to win?
It's two I think kind of essence of the election questions.
But first, how will Kamala do compared to Biden?
Speaker 6 (26:24):
Well, she's almost certain to get lower because Trump's numbers
have basically been stagnant. I think he got forty six
point two percent the first time, forty six point eight
percent the second time. Trump's numbers are fairly fixed. I
have a very difficult time seeing how if you voted
for him in sixteen and how you voted for him
in twenty that all of a sudden, you're not going
to vote for him in twenty four. That's why they
(26:45):
show these huge swings away from college educated whites. I
think to myself, and now I don't have any data
to prove this, but I think he when forty four
percent of that group in two straight elections. I don't
really see how many of them are going to sit
there and I'm like, oh, you know this third time
that gone, you know, Bridge too far. So she's most
certainly going to be doing worse. The question is how
much of the independent vote, the third party vote isn't
(27:07):
going to be taken up of her. Of her numbers,
the third party vote was detrimental to Hillary in twenty sixteen,
there was a much smaller part of it, and a
lot of those anti Hillary voters just went to Joe Biden.
I would say She's probably earned forty nine percent in
the polls and Trump's are forty seven or forty eight percent,
but that's really where it is. So yeah, she'll be
much lower. She'll be lower by a good point point
(27:29):
and a half percent. What Buck was saying in the
previous segment of Hispanic support increasing or Black support increasing,
If the numbers are real and Hispanic supporters are increasing,
you may see a situation where New York or Los
Angeles are significantly tighter, but that does not bear out
into an electoral victory. The only state that really matters
(27:49):
right now is Pennsylvania, because if Trump wins North Carolina
and Georgia as he's favored to, Pennsylvania flips the entire map,
So judging based on Pennsylvania, I think based on Mullerberg
poll that just was released and the Washington Post poll,
and I think of the era in the New York
Times poll, I think I would say Trump, in my opinion,
is probably favored to win Pennsylvania.
Speaker 2 (28:09):
Not by much.
Speaker 6 (28:10):
It's not going to be a landslide, but that number
in Pennsylvania would give him electoral college two seventy he needs.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
And who would the votes be assuming Trump is ahead
and does end up winning in Pennsylvania, Ryan, is it
again that basically white guys, white guys who are non
college educated, who are the difference makers.
Speaker 6 (28:30):
You're going to see an uptick in places like Yes One.
The white vote in Pennsylvania matters immensely, especially the senior vote.
But you see the numbers and registrations moving significantly. I
think in one county, say there's four thousand more registered
people that they've not tabulated yet. You're going to see
Trump uppick in Hispanic cities and secondary cities like Redding,
like Lancaster, like Bethlehem, these are huge Hispanic populations. They
(28:54):
experienced fifteen to twenty point swings from sixteen to twenty
you'll see that again, probably maybe at a smaller level,
but you'll still see an upswing in those areas. You
won't see the numbers coming out of Pittsburgh and Philly
that I think people are expecting to sit there and see.
And then Trump is going to have to do his
sixteen numbers in rural counties and manage to have enough
(29:14):
medium to big size county victories Erie County, Lancaster County,
York County to upset and upstage the numbers coming out
of the coller counties Delaware County, for example, or Montgomery County.
Montgomery County is the big one. It's it's an absolute
Republican killer is Montgomery County. So if if Kamala breaks
out of Montgomery County with you know, a forty forty
(29:36):
five point victory, that will be a very very hard
number to overcome.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
But the Virginia stuff, by the way, Ryan started started
to interpet but this is really I'm very curious. Virginia
seems much closer than a lot of people would have
anticipated at this point. I believe goveror Younkin has a
sixty percent approval rating in the state, which the Republican
and state like Virginia is really solid. Is Virginia a
(30:03):
long shot for Trump or is it not a shot
for Trump?
Speaker 6 (30:08):
It's still a long shot because of how the liberal
counties outside of Washington DC, those super blue counties Fairfax,
for example, had four times the amount of early voters
in twenty twenty four for the first day of early
voting then they did in twenty twenty. However, the red counties,
the red counties in smaller areas, they're experiencing overall one
hundred percent increase in early voter turnouts. So it's not
(30:30):
like just the left is mobilized and the right is
and they both are equally mobilized. We have to just
see where those key demographics are breaking. How much are
hispanics breaking, are Black men breaking, and how much are
men period breaking? Because the women numbers are very, very
fairly even as I said in the top of the segment,
the women numbers aren't where it's moving. It's about men.
Do men come out for Trump in the numbers that
(30:52):
some of the polls that say it's a tied election
do or do they kind of lack Are their lackluster?
Are they Joe Biden levels where they underperform what expectations
our hopes would be from the trumpet.
Speaker 1 (31:02):
We're talking to Ryan Gardeski. By the way, my theory
on that is just there's a lot of people fed
up with election advertising, and as soon as they can
get their vote in, whether it's red or blue, they
just want to get the ballots done, and then they're like,
I'm out, I'm not paying attention to this anymore.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
That's one theory that I have. Okay, Ryan, last question
for you.
Speaker 1 (31:19):
Will we get any data prior to election day that
you think could be important in giving us an indication?
You mentioned early voting in Virginia. Is there any state
where we're going to get data that's reliable in any
way to kind of give us a sense for what
might be coming prior to election day? Is there anything
you're waiting for or watching for.
Speaker 6 (31:40):
So the Republican early vote right now in Pennsylvania's twenty
six percent. It was lower, I think, with maybe twenty
seven percent, but the Democratic vote went from seventy to
sixty three. So I think those are the numbers. They're
roughly around the numbers. So the numbers in the early
mail in votes in Pennsylvania are five points more faarable
to a Republicans than they were four years ago. I
(32:03):
want to see where that trend is moving. If Republicans
can easily cross thirty or maybe thirty one percent and
Democrats in full hunder sixty percent, that's an extremely, extremely
good sign for Trump. He's winning in the early mail
in ballad requests and a number of small counties. I
also want to see partially where the Amish counties are heavily.
Amish areas are pulling up because they apparently having this
(32:26):
big get out the vote effort on the part of
Amish voters. Pennsylvania is where it's all at. So that's
why I want to see Pennsylvania's early ballid request. There's
already a million. I want to see how far it
goes and how high percentage wise Republicans go up and
Democrats go down.
Speaker 2 (32:41):
Ryan appreciate the time.
Speaker 1 (32:42):
I man encourage all of you to go follow Ryan
on Twitter, by the way, and even mentioned it, great
job of late on CNN. It's been fun to see
you taking a sword with some of these awful arguments.
So you've been killing it there.
Speaker 2 (32:52):
Thank you, Yah appreciation.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
So check out check out Ryan's work at at a
substaf and go follow inim on social media. We'll share
that certainly on clayanbuck dot com. Thanks Ryan, thank you.
Look tomorrow, I'm gonna give you a winner.
Speaker 2 (33:08):
Buck. I'm happy.
Speaker 1 (33:09):
I can feel it in the cosmos with prize Picks Thursday.
Speaker 3 (33:14):
Jump in really quickly because because you feel sorry for
me because of how expensive you've been lately, sir, I
need to make some money with your prize picks, So
go ahead.
Speaker 1 (33:22):
After what Buck had to spend on my very understated
not to draw attention to it, bet steak down in
Miami on Sunday night, I feel compelled to give you
all a winner at prize Picks.
Speaker 2 (33:34):
I'm gonna be down. I can't wait.
Speaker 1 (33:35):
Actually, it's amazing game Alabama hosting Georgia. I may have
some picks on Friday for you in that college football game.
But go ahead and get signed up right now so
you are ready to play either with us or against us.
When it comes to prize picks, you go to prizepicks
dot com. You put in my name, Clay. You get
fifty bucks when you play five dollars more or less
(33:56):
a variety of different players.
Speaker 2 (33:58):
We're going to give you a winner.
Speaker 1 (34:00):
I'm telling you tomorrow and I'm also going to give
you one Friday, and I want you to be signed
up and be able to play along. Whether you live
in California, Texas, Georgia, maybe you're filling left out Florida,
thirty different states you.
Speaker 2 (34:12):
Can play in.
Speaker 1 (34:13):
Just use my name Clay and you get fifty bucks prize.
Pick dot com my name Clay. Do it today as.
Speaker 8 (34:23):
It's silly, it's goofy, it's good times. Fight it in
the Clay and Buck podcast feed on the iHeartRadio app
or wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 3 (34:32):
All right, welcome back into Clay and Buck. We're going
to dive in here in just a few minutes to
the credible threats according to the intelligence community, of an
Iranian plot to assassinate Trump to sow chaos in the
United States. Plus some more information on the investigation into
the Butler Pennsylvania assassination attack attack attempt, sorry, plus more
(34:59):
information about the second assassination attempt on Donald Trump. The
son of the assassin was arrested for a grotesque crime.
So we will we'll get into all of that here
in a moment. Also, just wanted to take a second
to say, you know, Clay's got his mug. Mine's actually
being washed right now. But Krocket Coffee, everybody, the new
(35:21):
Suncreek Light Roast is in the store.
Speaker 2 (35:25):
We've been trying to get it set up. We only
bring you the best.
Speaker 3 (35:28):
Please go to Krocketcoffee dot com subscribe try the light Roast.
Remember light Roast coffee actually has more caffeine for those
of you like me who like a little extra kick.
So Krocketcoffee dot Com. A new blend organic is coming
soon matter of weeks, and then all the gear. But
we're building out this company. Actually you are building out
this company. So thank you all for subscribing and helping
(35:50):
us with this and so many more initiatives coming. And
remember ten percent of the profits goes to all the
Towers Foundation. Clay, can I just throw out one more requests?
I'm making requests, yes, firea So I know a while
ago I had put out a call on behalf of
the Sextons in New York for French or English Bulldog readers.
(36:11):
I have been informed by credible sources that they are
now ready to pull the trigger, so to speak, on
a frendsheet or if you have a French who or
an English rescue that.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
You know of.
Speaker 3 (36:23):
Email me let me know, because my sister is ready
for a bulldog again and I want to help her
get when there were so many clay. We have so
many dog breaders in this aud like people that breed dogs.
This audience or restaurants. Lots of dog people and lots
of gun people. Lots of overlap there, for sure. Yes,
I think that might actually be the perth. I think
we're in the ninety ninth percentile for love, dogs, love
(36:46):
firearms with this audience.
Speaker 1 (36:47):
So craziness out of a rod. We'll tell you the
latest and we come back
Oh well, come in hour number two Clay Travis buck
Sexton show. Appreciate all of you hanging out with us.
As we have prepared to go very soon under forty
days until the election. We are inching closer and closer.
We want to continue to emphasize to all of you,
get out, make your voices heard, vote as early as
(00:22):
you possibly can. Buck interesting data points, and we're going
to talk with Ryan Gurdusky here in a moment. But
I saw this come across and I thought it was
super interesting. So Notre Dame has been doing polling of
its college students for many years and they say, Okay,
(00:44):
you're going to vote for the Republic and you're going
to vote for the Democrat. And this year Notre Dame students,
according to this poll that just came out, they are
going to vote for Donald Trump forty eight to forty six.
Other Libertarian candidates whatnot will get additional support.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Indiana.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
Notre Dame is in Indiana, in South Bend, Indiana, Mayor
Pete's beloved hometown for those of you who wonder where
Mayor Pete came from. But it is in many ways
a melting pot buck of Midwestern voters Now, Notre Dame
has very much of a national brand, so I'm sure
they have students on that campus from all fifty states.
(01:27):
But I would assume that the overwhelming majority of the
geography of Notre Dame residents is Northeast or Midwest, right.
I don't think there's some massive amount of Southern kids
that make the trip to Notre Dame. I don't think
that they draw overwhelmingly from the West coast. All those things. Again,
(01:48):
all fifty states would be represented, but I would stay
in general, as a Catholic institution, a lot of people
from the Northeast, a lot of people from the Midwest.
With that square roughly buck with what you would expect
of their student body. In other words, this is not Alabama,
this is not this is not Tennessee, this is not
some SEC school fan base. Forty eight forty six for
(02:09):
Trump is actually pretty interesting. And then I want to
hit you with these two data points. Buck and Ryan Gerduski,
who's going to join us the bottom of the hour,
shared this. In twenty twenty, Biden won among Notre Dame
students sixty six to twenty nine. So four years later,
(02:30):
Trump is now beating Kamala with Notre Dame students. In
twenty twenty, they voted sixty six for twenty nine. In
twenty sixteen, they voted fifty nine to twenty four for
Hillary Clinton. Suddenly Trump is winning this college campus after
losing massively in sixteen and twenty. This is to me
(02:53):
a sign of what you might start to see in
the Midwest. Does it jump out to you, I mean,
that's a pretty massive shift in four years.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
Yes, But I can't say it's surprising really, because when
you look at what Kamala Harris would have to do
to beat Trump, you would have to say, here are
the constituencies within the you know, one hundred and one
hundred and fifty million votes something like that.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
Is one hundred and fifty six twenty twenty.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
Yeah, here are the uh, you know, the the two
or three million people spread across the following states that
will make well, there might be a lot less than that,
but I'm just talking about who she's trying to have.
Is the addressable market? You know they would say in
business right, who who is it that she's trying to get?
Is Kamala going to outperform Joe Biden with black voters?
(03:46):
I think the answer is no, I agree. Is Kamala
going to outperform And we're gonna talk to Ryan Grduski
at the bottom of the hour about this. Kama going
to outperform Biden and Hillary with women voters doesn't seem
like that's really the case. So this is where you
get into who matters in the persuadables. Did you see
there was a poll out that Trump is winning the
(04:07):
national Hispanic vote right now, Yes, which is stunning. Okay,
a majority of the nationwide Hispanic vote. That's fantastic. Into
all of our Hispanic American listeners, this is great news.
We're very pleased. But Hispanics are congregated in states that, unfortunately,
are not really up for grabs, right, I mean, most
Hispanics are not in states that are the battlegrounds. So
(04:30):
that doesn't you know what I mean, that doesn't really matter.
For Kamo to win, she'd have to win. I don't
even know how many more black votes she could get
in those states than Biden got, right, and she's underperforming
right now. She'd have to flip a lot of women
voters who already voted for Biden and came over to
her side. I don't think that's gonna you know, or
(04:51):
rather she had to flip. A lot of voters were
female in general. I don't know where they would come from.
And then you have the white working class.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
That's it. She's already got. You know.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
You know what I'm saying, Everybody who is going to
vote for Biden is already going to vote for Kamala.
What does she bring to the table that Biden didn't
in terms of voters? I just don't see it. And
we'll talk to Ryan and he'll tell me if I'm wrong,
because he likes to do that, so we'll see what
he says.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
So this, again, Notre Dame student poll, I just think
is super fascinating as a data point.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
The other one that I saw.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
Buck is do you see the Gallup party registration poll
that came out that now has Republicans in the Gallup
poll up forty eight to forty five, and it has
nearly mirrored to perfection the overall national vote tally. There
is now talk out there that Trump may be able
(05:48):
to contend in the national popular vote as well. And
this is honestly not a crazy contention. I mean, Quinnipiac
yesterday had Trump up one CNN had either Kamala up
one or a tie. The point on this is, if
Trump is close to even he's gonna win a landslide
in the electoral college. I think there are a lot
(06:09):
of panic and nervousness coming up. And also I think
some of the closing arguments are not actually registering at all. MSNBC,
did you see this? Buck had a panel of voters
in the Midwest and they wanted to talk about what
they thought of January sixth, and it did not go
like MSNBC hoped that it would go.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
Can we play the jan six panel? Please talk to.
Speaker 4 (06:34):
Me about your level of interest in the terminal charges
and so forth. February sixth, January sixth.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
So I remember that day.
Speaker 4 (06:42):
I know he was the standing president.
Speaker 5 (06:45):
I'm not familiar with the chargers that are getting brought
against him for that.
Speaker 1 (06:48):
I don't I'm not following that charge for the There's
multiple court cases going on.
Speaker 6 (06:53):
I'm just not familiar with them.
Speaker 4 (06:55):
I mean, that doesn't sound like it's going to be
a factor in deciding who to vote for. No, Okay,
so when I say January sixth, what do you think?
Speaker 5 (07:02):
Oh, I just remember seeing it on the news, like
all the riots and stuff. Don't really know what it
was about her what happened though.
Speaker 4 (07:07):
I mean, how did it make you feel when you
saw it?
Speaker 5 (07:09):
Oh?
Speaker 7 (07:09):
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (07:10):
I don't really feel any way about it. I don't.
I mean, people showed their emotion. I guess probably in
the wrong way, but it happened, Buck.
Speaker 1 (07:20):
I mean, I think this is how most normal people,
nearly four years later respond to January sixth I think
Democrats drove it into the ground. Whatever last vestige of
power it had they drung out in the midterms. And
I love her trying to just probe what it has
to Really, no, no, not at all. Well, she thinks,
(07:40):
whoever this reporter is, I don't even I don't know.
I'm just hearing her voice.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
But she's a journalist and she's asking about this, and
she's not getting the answer she wants.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
You know, you know what.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
She thinks it's the worst attack on this country since
the Civil War, which means it's worse than nine to
eleven in her mind. It's worse than Pearl Harbor in
her mind, which is insane both counts. I mean, just
completely divorced from reality. But journalists have been programmed like
robots to say this and you are you know, at
(08:10):
this stage play to step away from that would be
an unpardonable sin among the journals.
Speaker 2 (08:16):
So yeah, I think that.
Speaker 3 (08:18):
They are great have greatly overestimated how much January sixth
is going to help.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
Them its selection.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
I also think that there's a sense that there was
an unwillingness to allow the American people to just have
a free and fair election because of all the prosecutions
of Trump. You know, if January sixth is so bad.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
The worst attack since the Civil War.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
Why can't you just let the American people then have
their referendum? And whether they think it was so bad,
why do you have to have all the sham trials,
Why do you have the you know, the civil trials
and the criminal trials, and you know what I mean,
there's something bizarre about all of that, because if it's
so clear to you that this was such an all
that January was so awful that it makes Trump unacceptable, well,
(09:04):
won't the American people find that way? The answer we
all know it was, of course, the American people don't
think that. Journals think that, and Democrats who hate Trump
and people Trump derangement syndrome. Think it was the worst
attack since, you know, since the Civil War.
Speaker 2 (09:18):
Whatever.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
Yeah, And I just I look at this Buck, and
I can't escape the conclusion that Kamala Harris's campaign is
really starting to flounder. And I can't stop laughing about
Biden's team going to argue either. I saw our good
(09:42):
friend Moron Sunny Houston on the View compared Biden to
George Washington. But that's really what they're going to try
to roll with if Kamala Harris wins. But if she loses,
and I do think she's gonna lose, it's gonna be
one of the most epic election nights and election weeks
(10:03):
that we have ever seen because Democrats are going to
turn on each other with a fury and everything we've
been saying on this program, Wait, are we sure we
want to elevate the least popular vice presidential candidate of
all time? Does it really make sense to have somebody
as our nominee who's never gotten a vote? You know
what else is going to get dissected in.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
A big way.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
Buck, Tim Walls as the VP over Josh Shapiro is
one of the most If she loses Pennsylvania by twenty
five or thirty thousand votes, as she might, it will
be seen as one of the most catastrophic vice presidential
choices of all time. Now, you may be right that
Jos Shapiro wasn't that excited to hit hitch his cart
(10:43):
to Kamala Harris's campaign. But I just get I get
giddy just thinking about how this is all going to
play out.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
I was wondering about this because the Hillary. One of
my great regrets is that I was so elated in
twenty sixteen when Trump won and how to just find
my friends who were conservatives. So because it was I mean,
I lived in I lived in the Flat Iron district
of New York.
Speaker 2 (11:05):
You were close to Hillary's celebration party.
Speaker 3 (11:08):
My big regret is that I just didn't think, dude,
go over there, right.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
I could have walked.
Speaker 3 (11:15):
I could have walked to the Javits Convention Center and
just seen the wreckage of the hopes.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
And dreams of the Hillary campaign.
Speaker 3 (11:21):
They were all because I heard later they were all crying,
and you know, all the male feminists were crying, and
you know they were asking their wives to hold them.
And anyway, I wish I had gone to see that
do you know where Kamala's campaign headquarters is. I had
to look this up, so I'm not trying to put
you Well, they kept it in Delaware, right because kept
it in Wilmington, Delaware, which I don't even you know,
(11:44):
you don't hear much about that. I never I've taken
a train through. I've never been in Wilmington, Delaware. There's
a part of me that's like, man, it might be
kind of fun to be at the Kamala headquarters or
with an earshot of it on election night, but it'd
be really sad if you're there and they're actually very
happy because she won.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
So that's a dangerous game to play.
Speaker 1 (12:05):
Story just breaking buck, This is interesting. I mean it's
not groundbreaking, but Kamala Harris says she owns a handgun.
In two thousand and five, she wanted handguns mandatory confiscated
in San Francisco.
Speaker 2 (12:22):
Do you think she actually owns a handgun? I don't.
I'm going to tell you this, Yeah, I I do.
I do not believe her. And the thing is we'll
never really be able to you know.
Speaker 3 (12:33):
It's she could say that she bought it from somebody
in a private sale or something and there's always ways
around this.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
I don't know. I don't believe it. Do you believe it?
The only reason I think she might have had a
handgun is because she will choose the DA.
Speaker 1 (12:47):
Yeah, because like DA's you know, they they if she had,
if she.
Speaker 3 (12:52):
Has it, well, here's what I would say. I do
not believe that she went of her own accord to
buy a handgun as a private citizen. If she has
a handgun, it's a leave behind from when she's the DA.
And I would say I would bet money that she
has not been to a shooting range in I don't know,
five years. Wouldn't there be a video of her somewhere
shooting if she actually had a handgun, like that she
(13:14):
legit instead of somebody just giving her a gun in
a case that she put in her car and just
kind of drove around with or whatever.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
You know, Well, if if somebody asked me, hey, Bud,
if the fuck are you a gun owner? Be like
am I a gun owner?
Speaker 7 (13:25):
Like?
Speaker 3 (13:26):
Oh man, I was like, I got I've got my
I've got my Grizzly nine millimeter from Bear Creek. I've
got my BC fifteen, I've got a clock nineteen, I've
got a staccato c too. You know, i'd list all
the guns and all the all the optics and all.
This is what people own guns can do because they
actually pay attention to this stuff. I wish they had
said what kind of gun do you have? Well, I
think Trump, because I think she would have said one
of the ones that goes bang. You know, she has
(13:47):
no idea. I think you're right on that. We'll read
into some of more of these stories. I remember she
called Donald Trump a liar for saying that she wanted
to take away people's guns in two thousand and five.
She would have she supported the banning of buying, selling,
or possessing handguns in San Francisco. She was going to
take people's guns away in San Francisco. It's crazy. We'll
(14:12):
dive into that here in just a second. I just
mentioned Barrack Creek Arsenal because I've got my BC fifteen.
I'm going shooting this weekend out at the range. So
that's the Bear Creek Arsenal, one of their AR fifteen's.
You know, they make whole complete firearms. They also have
the best selection and the best prices on uppers for
your rifle that you will find absolutely anywhere. I've been
(14:33):
to their factory in North Carolina, as you know, did
some shooting there. We had a great time. And this
weekend I'm going out with the CEO of Bear Creek
and we're just gonna have a whole day at the range.
We're going to try out all the different Bear Creek
Barcreek pistols and rifles that I have, and we're going
to just put them through the test, because so far,
every time I go out to the range, I'm like,
I just wish I had known about Barrack Creek Arsenal
(14:54):
a long time ago. And look, if you're saying, you know, Buck,
I don't have any room in the gun safe right
now for another rifle. Get in upper receiver from Bear
Creek Arsenal. You can get them for a couple of
you know, in the couple of hundred bucks range. The
prices are unbeatable. And I'm talking about full bolt carrier,
everything that you need to just change up the caliber
(15:15):
on your rifle. Bear Creek Arsenal has you covered. Go
to Barcreek Arsenal dot com use coupon code Buck. You
save ten percent off your first order. Also hunting season,
they've got great rifle, super accurate, unbeatable prices.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
Hunting season, gets yourself a new rifle.
Speaker 3 (15:31):
Right We're in the season right now in a lot
of places, or are coming up on the season. Depends
where you are, depends what you're going for. Bearcreekarsenal dot
com use that coupon code buck. You've got a nice
ten percent discount off your first order. And also, just
let me say, Bear Creek Arsenal are patriots and their
Second Amendment defenders. They're all about our right as Americans
(15:51):
as citizens to bear arms. And you should stand with
companies as two way people. You should stand with companies
that do what they do, which is stand with show
like this one. They don't run away from all. We're
firearms company, but we don't want people to know that
we sow firearms. There's a lot of that out there.
I'll tell you Bear Creek Arsenal the real deal. Go
to Bear Creek Arsenal dot com. Use that coupon code
(16:12):
buck for ten percent off. Two guys walk up to
a mic.
Speaker 8 (16:18):
Anything goes Clay Travis and Fuck Sexton. Find them on
the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
Ah Yes Nancy Pelosi. This is a fun one.
Speaker 3 (16:31):
She got a little snippy with Jake Tapper because mister
Tapper and CNN started reading.
Speaker 2 (16:38):
Some of Trump's criticisms of Comma. This is cut twenty player.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
Donald Trump saying that Kamala Harins says bigger cognitive problems
than Joe Biden.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
Why would you even cover that?
Speaker 7 (16:48):
This is a person who's not on the level. He
is their nominee for president, He is incompetent. Let's not
even talk about the silliness of it all and the
weirdness of it all, the assault on women that it is.
Speaker 2 (17:02):
We're not going to talk issues.
Speaker 3 (17:04):
I just I just love that that Pelosi is like
ready to send Tapper to bed without his supper.
Speaker 2 (17:08):
She's like, how don't dare you, Jake?
Speaker 3 (17:11):
I know what time it is. We're supposed to be
all in for Kamala. I'm not gonna lie.
Speaker 1 (17:15):
I secretly respect that Nancy Pelosi just makes so many
people her bitch. I mean, she just slaps people around, right,
Like how many actual Republicans will slap around media figures
like Nancy Pelosi does.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
I don't agree with her politics, but I.
Speaker 3 (17:31):
Respect she's with brass knuckles and we don't have that
on our side.
Speaker 1 (17:37):
There's so many people who are like, oh, if we're
just a little nice or maybe they'll respect us more.
And Nancy Pelosi just walks in and slaps that phony
Jake Tapper right in the face live on television. I
kind of respect it. I mean, I disagree with her,
but I respect it.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
Pelosi.
Speaker 3 (17:52):
All this talk about the new iPhone sixteen reminds me
that we still get jazz about a new device and
what it can do. Phones will be with us for
the rest of our lives, in one form or another,
and so with that cell phone build that comes with it.
Puretalk wants your cell phone to be the lowest it
can be, and there's good logic that goes with it.
They can offer superior service at the lowest price. You'll
(18:13):
be a customer for life. And one way that Puretalk
does that is making sure you're not paying for data
you don't use. Most cell phone companies want that. That's
how they're making their money. They're charging you more and
not giving you what you need. Puretalk has plans that
started twenty five dollars with data that's going to be
enough for a vast majority of the phone customer consumers
out there having one of these plans, keep your cell phone,
(18:34):
they'll lower for just twenty five dollars a month. With
pure Talk you get a limited talk text and five
gigs of data plus mobile hotspot that's enough to watch
ten hours of video. Make the switch to Puretalk. Dial
pound two fifty, say Clay and Buck. You'll save fifty
percent off your first month. Again Dial pound two five
zero say Clay and Buck. We walk back in Clay
(18:55):
Travis Buck Sexton Show. We are joined now by Ryan Gerdusky,
National populist newsletter, founder of the seventeen seventy six Project Pack,
and I've been reading his substack I believe it is,
which has a lot of data and analytics as it
pertains to election data out there.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
And Ryan, I want to start with this.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
I think I read this on Friday of last week
or thereabouts, maybe over the weekend. You went into the
cross tabs and kind of looked at the data coming
out of Pennsylvania and you've compared it to twenty sixteen
and twenty twenty and your theory of why these polls
have drastically under reported Donald Trump's strength and sixteen and
(19:38):
twenty is older white voters being underrepresented and not accurately
reflected in poll results. Walk our audience through it. I
found it to be a really persuasive argument.
Speaker 6 (19:52):
Right. So, on the National Populous newsletter on Substack, which
is my substack, Nate Cohen, who runs the New York
Times polling staff at Sanna University, they had Trump tied
nationally but losing Pennsylvania by four. And the big question
was why Nate Cohene even went through Twitter and said
again was responding people saying, well, it's not through this
(20:12):
sub group. It's not through this subgroup. And the group
he'd never mentioned was seniors. In the New York Times
Santa Pol Nationally, Trump is winning seniors by six. This
is a group that he won them by four last time,
and he won them by I think it was nine
the time. Before then, republic seniors had voted Republican in
every election, majority in every election going back at least
(20:33):
twenty five years. So it is a very good assumption
to say seniors will be voting Republican this time as well.
Seniors in Pennsylvania vote to the right of seniors nationally.
So in twenty twelve, Romney won seniors nationally by twelve.
He won seniors in Pennsylvania by fourteen. In sixteen, Trump
won them by nine nationally, ten in Pennsylvania. In twenty
(20:54):
Trump won them by four nationally seven in Pennsylvania, so
they vote to the right. In the New York Times poll,
Trump is winning seniors nationally by six but losing seniors
in Pennsylvania by three. Now I know they say, don't
get sit there, don't get so tied up in in
cross tabs. But at the same exact time, this is
not a cross tub of like Hispanics, which make a
(21:15):
five percent of Pennsylvania, so they have extremely high margins
of error. Seniors in Pennsylvania are a third of voters.
The margin of era is fairly low. He probably will
be winning seniors by close to ten points, which is
a if the national poll is correct at six, they'll
probably win close to ten points among seniors. And that
thirteen point difference is the margin between him winning or losing.
(21:38):
And I only made a big point of the New
York Times poll is because in all these polling aggregators.
Nate Silver wrote to the White House, the economists, the
New York Times, Sanapol puts a lot they put a
lot of weight into that polling institution. So when they
all sit there and say, well, Harris's favor to win Pennsylvania,
a lot of it is because of the New York
Times sandapol, which I think personally as this flaw of
(22:01):
not correctly waiting the senior vote. And it's the same mistake,
I mind you, that they made in twenty twenty and
in twenty sixteen, but more especially in twenty twenty when
they were looking at how Biden and Trump were going
to do. It was the same exact group because liberal seniors,
older liberals who like listen to Rachel Mattow every day
and thinks she's the voice of God, really love to
(22:22):
tell strangers their opinions on Donald Trump.
Speaker 3 (22:25):
Ryan, if you had to assess whether the Kamala campaign
is based on the data aware that they are behind,
they obviously won't say that.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
Is it clear enough?
Speaker 3 (22:39):
You think that even that they would know, even if
they won't say it publicly, that they're trailing. And also,
what's your assessment of Kamala with women?
Speaker 6 (22:49):
So that's a really great question, abou Kamala of women
because the perception out in the media, and I guess
The perception for even myself as a voter, was that
Kamala is going to break all the numbers of women,
record breaking support among women. And I decided on the
substack National Popyist newsletter substack to break down all the polling.
And I broke it down between two sets of polls,
(23:09):
polls that have Kamala's surging with more than a four
percent margin of victory nationwide and polls that have a
very very close election. And shockingly, Kamala performs with women
the same exact way. In both sets of polls. She
beats Donald Trump on average by fifteen points. No matter
if the race shows at being very tied or the
(23:31):
ratios that Kamala blowout the polling, the pulling difference is
not among women. She does not perform any better with
women than Joe Biden did or Hillary Clinton did. It's
they both had about a fifteen point margin over Donald
Trump in twenty twenty and twenty sixteen, respectively. So she
is not winning over many new women voters. This whole
(23:52):
perception that there's this army of pro choice women who
never voted before and they're voting for the very first time,
that one isn't true historically, but true, it's not even
in the data this time. The entire difference is among men.
The big question is is Donald Trump going to perform
his Joe Biden numbers among men when he won men
by a four point margin or somewhere around there, or
(24:14):
is going to perform among men like he did against
Hillary Clinton, which was an eleven point margin. That's the
entire really difference. And they break into different subcategories like
black men, Hispanic men, YadA, YadA, YadA. But it's the
question of men is how well is Donald Trump performing
with men? Is this the men the man election, because
with women it seems fairly unchanged completely. When it comes
(24:36):
to the voting data, look, we're starting to see early
votes come in. A lot of states do not have
voter registration by political party, like Virginia. Virginia has already
had one hundred and fifty thousand people vote in it,
but we don't know if there Republicans or Democrats because
they don't register voters by party. We just know if
their conservative districts or their liberal districts, and a lot
of conservative districts voting. Early voting turnout is over one
(24:58):
hundred percent of where it was twenty twentieth this time,
and in some liberal districts they have hit that point
and they've even surpassed it, like in fair Fact City.
But what we're looking at right now is a lot
of mail in data, and the mail in data in
the ballad requests in Pennsylvania, Democrats are down fairly large.
The numbers are about four percentage points tighter than they
(25:19):
were back in twenty twenty. In North Carolina they were
down big, big, big time. As far as people with
early mail ballad requests, does that mean that they won't
vote at all because they didn't get the early ballot requests,
I don't know. But the early ballot requests for Democrats
where they're going to mail in tons of votes and
basically have these votes ready to count it on election day,
(25:40):
that doesn't look like it's happening so far.
Speaker 2 (25:43):
We're talking to Ryan Gardeski. Okay, two parter here for you.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
Ryan Buck and I both believe that Joe Biden is
going to outperform Kamala. That is, Biden's twenty twenty numbers
are going to outperform kamala Is twenty twenty four numbers.
I'm curious if you would agree with that. That's nationwide,
not on an individual state basis. Second part of this question,
if you had to place a wager right now, would
(26:08):
you place a wager on Trump to win in twenty
twenty four based on the data analytics as you see it,
or would you place a wager on Kamala to win?
It's two I think kind of essence of the election questions.
But first, how will Kamala do compared to Biden?
Speaker 6 (26:24):
Well, she's almost certain to get lower because Trump's numbers
have basically been stagnant. I think he got forty six
point two percent the first time, forty six point eight
percent the second time. Trump's numbers are fairly fixed. I
have a very difficult time seeing how if you voted
for him in sixteen and how you voted for him
in twenty that all of a sudden, you're not going
to vote for him in twenty four. That's why they
(26:45):
show these huge swings away from college educated whites. I
think to myself, and now I don't have any data
to prove this, but I think he when forty four
percent of that group in two straight elections. I don't
really see how many of them are going to sit
there and I'm like, oh, you know this third time
that gone, you know, Bridge too far. So she's most
certainly going to be doing worse. The question is how
much of the independent vote, the third party vote isn't
(27:07):
going to be taken up of her. Of her numbers,
the third party vote was detrimental to Hillary in twenty sixteen,
there was a much smaller part of it, and a
lot of those anti Hillary voters just went to Joe Biden.
I would say She's probably earned forty nine percent in
the polls and Trump's are forty seven or forty eight percent,
but that's really where it is. So yeah, she'll be
much lower. She'll be lower by a good point point
(27:29):
and a half percent. What Buck was saying in the
previous segment of Hispanic support increasing or Black support increasing,
If the numbers are real and Hispanic supporters are increasing,
you may see a situation where New York or Los
Angeles are significantly tighter, but that does not bear out
into an electoral victory. The only state that really matters
(27:49):
right now is Pennsylvania, because if Trump wins North Carolina
and Georgia as he's favored to, Pennsylvania flips the entire map,
So judging based on Pennsylvania, I think based on Mullerberg
poll that just was released and the Washington Post poll,
and I think of the era in the New York
Times poll, I think I would say Trump, in my opinion,
is probably favored to win Pennsylvania.
Speaker 2 (28:09):
Not by much.
Speaker 6 (28:10):
It's not going to be a landslide, but that number
in Pennsylvania would give him electoral college two seventy he needs.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
And who would the votes be assuming Trump is ahead
and does end up winning in Pennsylvania, Ryan, is it
again that basically white guys, white guys who are non
college educated, who are the difference makers.
Speaker 6 (28:30):
You're going to see an uptick in places like Yes One.
The white vote in Pennsylvania matters immensely, especially the senior vote.
But you see the numbers and registrations moving significantly. I
think in one county, say there's four thousand more registered
people that they've not tabulated yet. You're going to see
Trump uppick in Hispanic cities and secondary cities like Redding,
like Lancaster, like Bethlehem, these are huge Hispanic populations. They
(28:54):
experienced fifteen to twenty point swings from sixteen to twenty
you'll see that again, probably maybe at a smaller level,
but you'll still see an upswing in those areas. You
won't see the numbers coming out of Pittsburgh and Philly
that I think people are expecting to sit there and see.
And then Trump is going to have to do his
sixteen numbers in rural counties and manage to have enough
(29:14):
medium to big size county victories Erie County, Lancaster County,
York County to upset and upstage the numbers coming out
of the coller counties Delaware County, for example, or Montgomery County.
Montgomery County is the big one. It's it's an absolute
Republican killer is Montgomery County. So if if Kamala breaks
out of Montgomery County with you know, a forty forty
(29:36):
five point victory, that will be a very very hard
number to overcome.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
But the Virginia stuff, by the way, Ryan started started
to interpet but this is really I'm very curious. Virginia
seems much closer than a lot of people would have
anticipated at this point. I believe goveror Younkin has a
sixty percent approval rating in the state, which the Republican
and state like Virginia is really solid. Is Virginia a
(30:03):
long shot for Trump or is it not a shot
for Trump?
Speaker 6 (30:08):
It's still a long shot because of how the liberal
counties outside of Washington DC, those super blue counties Fairfax,
for example, had four times the amount of early voters
in twenty twenty four for the first day of early
voting then they did in twenty twenty. However, the red counties,
the red counties in smaller areas, they're experiencing overall one
hundred percent increase in early voter turnouts. So it's not
(30:30):
like just the left is mobilized and the right is
and they both are equally mobilized. We have to just
see where those key demographics are breaking. How much are
hispanics breaking, are Black men breaking, and how much are
men period breaking? Because the women numbers are very, very
fairly even as I said in the top of the segment,
the women numbers aren't where it's moving. It's about men.
Do men come out for Trump in the numbers that
(30:52):
some of the polls that say it's a tied election
do or do they kind of lack Are their lackluster?
Are they Joe Biden levels where they underperform what expectations
our hopes would be from the trumpet.
Speaker 1 (31:02):
We're talking to Ryan Gardeski. By the way, my theory
on that is just there's a lot of people fed
up with election advertising, and as soon as they can
get their vote in, whether it's red or blue, they
just want to get the ballots done, and then they're like,
I'm out, I'm not paying attention to this anymore.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
That's one theory that I have. Okay, Ryan, last question
for you.
Speaker 1 (31:19):
Will we get any data prior to election day that
you think could be important in giving us an indication?
You mentioned early voting in Virginia. Is there any state
where we're going to get data that's reliable in any
way to kind of give us a sense for what
might be coming prior to election day? Is there anything
you're waiting for or watching for.
Speaker 6 (31:40):
So the Republican early vote right now in Pennsylvania's twenty
six percent. It was lower, I think, with maybe twenty
seven percent, but the Democratic vote went from seventy to
sixty three. So I think those are the numbers. They're
roughly around the numbers. So the numbers in the early
mail in votes in Pennsylvania are five points more faarable
to a Republicans than they were four years ago. I
(32:03):
want to see where that trend is moving. If Republicans
can easily cross thirty or maybe thirty one percent and
Democrats in full hunder sixty percent, that's an extremely, extremely
good sign for Trump. He's winning in the early mail
in ballad requests and a number of small counties. I
also want to see partially where the Amish counties are heavily.
Amish areas are pulling up because they apparently having this
(32:26):
big get out the vote effort on the part of
Amish voters. Pennsylvania is where it's all at. So that's
why I want to see Pennsylvania's early ballid request. There's
already a million. I want to see how far it
goes and how high percentage wise Republicans go up and
Democrats go down.
Speaker 2 (32:41):
Ryan appreciate the time.
Speaker 1 (32:42):
I man encourage all of you to go follow Ryan
on Twitter, by the way, and even mentioned it, great
job of late on CNN. It's been fun to see
you taking a sword with some of these awful arguments.
So you've been killing it there.
Speaker 2 (32:52):
Thank you, Yah appreciation.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
So check out check out Ryan's work at at a
substaf and go follow inim on social media. We'll share
that certainly on clayanbuck dot com. Thanks Ryan, thank you.
Look tomorrow, I'm gonna give you a winner.
Speaker 2 (33:08):
Buck. I'm happy.
Speaker 1 (33:09):
I can feel it in the cosmos with prize Picks Thursday.
Speaker 3 (33:14):
Jump in really quickly because because you feel sorry for
me because of how expensive you've been lately, sir, I
need to make some money with your prize picks, So
go ahead.
Speaker 1 (33:22):
After what Buck had to spend on my very understated
not to draw attention to it, bet steak down in
Miami on Sunday night, I feel compelled to give you
all a winner at prize Picks.
Speaker 2 (33:34):
I'm gonna be down. I can't wait.
Speaker 1 (33:35):
Actually, it's amazing game Alabama hosting Georgia. I may have
some picks on Friday for you in that college football game.
But go ahead and get signed up right now so
you are ready to play either with us or against us.
When it comes to prize picks, you go to prizepicks
dot com. You put in my name, Clay. You get
fifty bucks when you play five dollars more or less
(33:56):
a variety of different players.
Speaker 2 (33:58):
We're going to give you a winner.
Speaker 1 (34:00):
I'm telling you tomorrow and I'm also going to give
you one Friday, and I want you to be signed
up and be able to play along. Whether you live
in California, Texas, Georgia, maybe you're filling left out Florida,
thirty different states you.
Speaker 2 (34:12):
Can play in.
Speaker 1 (34:13):
Just use my name Clay and you get fifty bucks prize.
Pick dot com my name Clay. Do it today as.
Speaker 8 (34:23):
It's silly, it's goofy, it's good times. Fight it in
the Clay and Buck podcast feed on the iHeartRadio app
or wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 3 (34:32):
All right, welcome back into Clay and Buck. We're going
to dive in here in just a few minutes to
the credible threats according to the intelligence community, of an
Iranian plot to assassinate Trump to sow chaos in the
United States. Plus some more information on the investigation into
the Butler Pennsylvania assassination attack attack attempt, sorry, plus more
(34:59):
information about the second assassination attempt on Donald Trump. The
son of the assassin was arrested for a grotesque crime.
So we will we'll get into all of that here
in a moment. Also, just wanted to take a second
to say, you know, Clay's got his mug. Mine's actually
being washed right now. But Krocket Coffee, everybody, the new
(35:21):
Suncreek Light Roast is in the store.
Speaker 2 (35:25):
We've been trying to get it set up. We only
bring you the best.
Speaker 3 (35:28):
Please go to Krocketcoffee dot com subscribe try the light Roast.
Remember light Roast coffee actually has more caffeine for those
of you like me who like a little extra kick.
So Krocketcoffee dot Com. A new blend organic is coming
soon matter of weeks, and then all the gear. But
we're building out this company. Actually you are building out
this company. So thank you all for subscribing and helping
(35:50):
us with this and so many more initiatives coming. And
remember ten percent of the profits goes to all the
Towers Foundation. Clay, can I just throw out one more requests?
I'm making requests, yes, firea So I know a while
ago I had put out a call on behalf of
the Sextons in New York for French or English Bulldog readers.
(36:11):
I have been informed by credible sources that they are
now ready to pull the trigger, so to speak, on
a frendsheet or if you have a French who or
an English rescue that.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
You know of.
Speaker 3 (36:23):
Email me let me know, because my sister is ready
for a bulldog again and I want to help her
get when there were so many clay. We have so
many dog breaders in this aud like people that breed dogs.
This audience or restaurants. Lots of dog people and lots
of gun people. Lots of overlap there, for sure. Yes,
I think that might actually be the perth. I think
we're in the ninety ninth percentile for love, dogs, love
(36:46):
firearms with this audience.
Speaker 1 (36:47):
So craziness out of a rod. We'll tell you the
latest and we come back
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show News
Hosts And Creators
Clay Travis
Buck Sexton
Show Links
WebsiteNewsletterPopular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!