October 30, 2025 • 36 mins
Hour 2 dives deep into election analysis and political strategy with guest Ryan Girdusky, host of It’s a Numbers Game. The discussion focuses on three major races: New York City mayoral election, New Jersey governor’s race, and Virginia statewide contests. Girdusky breaks down polling trends, turnout patterns, and demographic shifts shaping these contests. In New York City, Zohran Mamdani holds a strong lead, but Andrew Cuomo’s slim path to victory hinges on older voters and Republican turnout. The conversation explores whether far-left candidates have a ceiling in urban politics and what that means for future progressive ambitions.
In New Jersey, Jack Ciattarelli faces an uphill battle against Democrat Mikie Sherrill, with mail-in ballots favoring Democrats and thousands of unreturned Republican ballots looming large. Hispanic voters and Orthodox Jewish communities could be decisive, as Ciattarelli seeks Trump-like gains among nonwhite voters while maintaining strength in suburban areas. Over in Virginia, Republican Jason Miyares leads the attorney general race, while Abigail Spanberger appears poised to win the governor’s race. The hosts analyze how turnout in coal country and Northern Virginia could tip the balance, and why Winsome Sears’ performance in the lieutenant governor contest matters for GOP momentum.
The hour then pivots to the ongoing government shutdown, now in its 29th day. Clay and Buck highlight mounting consequences: unpaid air traffic controllers, looming SNAP benefit cuts for 42 million Americans, and growing bipartisan frustration. They expose the political calculus behind Democrats’ refusal to compromise before the election and share listener insights on furloughed federal workers receiving full back pay—even if they don’t work during the shutdown. The hosts argue this dynamic fuels public anger and could backfire on Democrats as CNN polling shows voters increasingly blaming them.
Additional segments touch on cultural and political trends, including collapsing public concern over climate change, Gavin Newsom’s latest controversies, and JD Vance’s comments on UFOs. Clay and Buck also sprinkle in lighter moments with Halloween costume banter and breaking sports news for Nebraska fans.
Make sure you never miss a second of the show by subscribing to the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton show podcast wherever you get your podcasts! ihr.fm/3InlkL8
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Second hour of Play and Buck kicks off with our
friend Ryan Gerdusky does not have a pag'er on his
person as far as I know right now, does not
have a paper, he joins us.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
He is, of course the host of It's a Numbers Game.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
Like Clay and Forever, you two are like bonded in
the special brotherhood of banned from CNN. So Clay is
banned from CNN, Ryan is banned from CNN.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Quite honestly, I.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
Feel a little left out, but it's all worked out
because Ryan's podcast is fantastic. Highly recommend you go check
it out in the Clay and Buck podcast network. He
is also now on YouTube. It's a Numbers Game. If
you just want to know more about politics and impress
all your friends who think they understand what's going on
in the elections or just the polls month to month
or any data out there, listen to It's a Numbers
(00:50):
Game and just steal all of what Ryan says. He
gives you full permission if you watch and listen to
steal what he says and tell all of your annoying
lib friends. All right, Ryan, with all that, and we
appreciate you making the time for us. Let's dive and
we got three important races here. You know what will
make it to a dealer's choice. Which one do you
want to dive into?
Speaker 2 (01:10):
First? We've got New Jersey, Virginia, New York City mayor's race.
What do you think?
Speaker 4 (01:15):
Let's talk about New York City first. It's the top
of my sheet of my cheat sheet of numbers for
you guys. So New York City the mayor's election obviously
on Tuesday, with a three way race between Cuomo Zaramondani
and Curtis Leewa. The polling has been fairly consistent right
it shows Mandani with an average up fifteen point lead
(01:35):
overall depending on which poll you look at, but it's
about fifteen point lead early on. There was an art
by the Gothamist giving some glimmer of hope to Cuomo
and his supporters, is that the electorate so far in
this election, in the early votes, has been very, very old.
There are more people between the ages of seventy to
seventy five voting than people between the ages of eighteen
(01:56):
to twenty four. That was not happening in the Denver
Creig primary when Mandanni won. The electric has been progressively
becoming younger as the days have gone up. Though when
the voting began, voters under forty were just twenty eight
percent of people showing up in the early vote. Now
they're up to thirty five percent. And what's giving some
(02:16):
anxiety to Cuomo supporters is this Sunday is the New
York City Marathon, which runs through the quote unquote Commi
Corridor of the big socialist blocks of New York City
where people votes and make good weather people might go
and vote right afterwards. The electric has been slightly older,
slightly blacker. Some of the outer boroughs have been showing
up in bigger numbers. Aside from Brooklyn and Manhattan, Staten
(02:38):
Island and Queens are showing up in big numbers. The Bronx,
which is Quomo's best county, is having horrific turnout, though
they're not showing up, you know, in the numbers that
they need to for Cuomo. So that's certainly going to
give his supporters a lot of anxiety. What Cuomo really
needs right now are two very big things Republicans to
(02:58):
start showing up. Republicans are only five percent of all
registered Republicans in New York City have shown up to
go vote so far in the early election. That's compared
to eight percent of all Democrats. Just three percent of
registered independents have shown up. But this electorate is much
more democratic right now than the twenty twenty four election
(03:19):
when Trump got surge in New York City did much
better than people expected him to. So he's going to
need a lot more Republicans to show up and then
to break against against Curtis in a big way, and
Curtis to underperform, and for Republicans to show up, and
really for seniors in the far parts of the Ottle
Borrow of Southern Bronx, Western Queens, Northern Bronx, and southern
(03:40):
Brooklyn to really pick up momentum as this goes on.
This is going to be a gigantic turnout election, probably
the biggest elections of the nineteen ninety three mayor election
when Rudy Giuliani won against Mayor Dinkins. He was sorry, yeah, mens,
Mayor Dinkins, he was a It was a one point
(04:00):
four million person turnout. This could cut closer to two million,
is what I'm hearing from people analyzing on the ground.
A lot more people are showing up. We are at
thirty three percent of the twenty twenty one numbers with
in just five days of early voting, so immense turn
out of New York City Republicans just really got to
start picking up, and they got a break for Cuomo
(04:21):
for him to have a chance, and more seniors have
to show up. But seniors have been showing up, they
have to show up more. So that's the New York
City thing right now. It still looks like I'm in
Donna victory. There is a small path for Cuomo. He
just has to really get on the ground to get
these older voters out to support him.
Speaker 5 (04:37):
We had Curtis Sliwan yesterday, Ryan, and if Curtis Sleiwad
dropped out, let me just ask it to you this way.
What do you think the chances are we wake up
Wednesday and a majority of New York City voters will
have actually voted against Mom Donnie, but that is split
among Cuomo and Sliwa. Do you think that's likely? Do
you think that Mom Donnie will get an overall majority?
(05:00):
Do you think more people will vote against Mamdani? But
in a three way he's going to end up as
the likely winner that direction.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
So in all the polls, Mandani has only gotten a
majority in one poll out of all the polls, saying
in New York City, no one really expects him to
get a majority. Now things could change, especially with it's
going to be a real question of is there a
ceiling for these socialist candidates? Are they so toxic that
they can't get passed? In New York City's case, or
(05:27):
Mandani seven eight nine hundred thousand votes, If he gets
over a million votes, it really shows the ceiling isn't there.
And this is the conversation that Democrats used to have
about Trump, is that he can't get more than forty
seven percent until he got close to fifty. If there
is a ceiling for Mandanni, if they say his policies
are too unpopular or he is too unlikable, and certainly
(05:48):
his favorable ratings have dropped in all the poll I've seen.
And then that shows that that that hurts people like
AOC who wants to run in the future, That hurts
the far left who want to run nationwide in the future.
For the presidency to say, hey, listen, there's a cap
on how many people really are willing to sit there
and go to the far left.
Speaker 3 (06:08):
Speaking of Ryan Gardusky, It's a Numbers Game is his
podcast on the Clay Endbuck Network. Go check that one out.
Go make sure you have the iHeart app and you're
checking out what's in the feed. Ryan, talk to me
about Chitdarelly in New Jersey. I'm seeing some things that
make me feel kind of warm and fuzzy about it.
But I'm getting a little ahead of myself. I'm sure
you're here to set me straight. What's really going on?
(06:29):
Is this the best chance for a Republican shock win?
Speaker 4 (06:33):
Yes, this is one hundred percent aside from Jason, here
is the best chance for a Republicans. So here's here's
the here's the thing that get the good thing going
for Chitdarelli is that there's a lot more registered Republicans
and there ever have been for Chittarelli in the last
time that he ran, Like I think eighty thousand more
Republicans and the more of the last time that he ran,
(06:54):
and a lot of fewer Democrats. People have switched registrations
and people have just stopped voting, or they've passed away,
or they just you know, they're no longer keep up
the registration, becoming independent here's the bathing for Chittarelly. In
twenty twenty four, at this point, Republicans had a lead
for Trump in the presidential election in in person voting.
(07:14):
Right there were more Republicans showing up to vote in
person in the early voting than Democrats. Even in a
state like New Jersey has such a big Democratic lead,
that is not the case for Chittarelli. Right now, Democrats
have a seventy three hundred person lead in the early vote.
Now that's not a ton, that's not unimaginable to sit
there and break, because in twenty twenty one, Chittarelli won
(07:35):
election day votes by over by about two hundred thousand votes.
What gives me anxiety is that the mail in vote
lead for Democrats is substantially large. Two hundred and twenty
one thousand more Democrats have submitted a mail in ballid
than Republicans. But the craziest thing is, for this bok,
seventy two thousand Republicans in New Jersey have received a
(07:58):
mail in ballad and have not returned it. There are
seventy two thousand votes for Jack Chendarelli on people's kitchen tables,
and they haven't returned those ballots. Yet that's a lot
of catching up to do to chase those ballots and
make sure they were returned. Now once again, he's gonna
win election day. He may win it by a lot.
There are two different questions when it comes to how
(08:19):
are these voters sitting there and breaking Jack guendarily has
a support of all the Orthodox Jewish communities in New Jersey,
which is substantial, especially like in Ocean County where his
Lakewood in it. That's bringing a lot of votes. Many
of them are registered Democrats. There's also the question of
what is going on with these non white voters who
have been Democrats their whole life and broke for Trump.
(08:40):
Remember in twenty twenty. In the twenty twenty election, Trump
won just twenty six percent of Hispanic majority place of
precincts in New Jersey. In twenty twenty four, Trump won
thirty nine percent thirteen point bounds in New Jersey and
Hispanic majority precincts. How are they going to vote because
they vote just they voted for Jack Chitarelli at the
(09:02):
same rate they voted for Trump in twenty twenty one.
So Trump received twenty six percent, Chittarelly received twenty six percent.
If Chittarelly gets thirty nine percent or anywhere close among
these Hispanic people who have mostly cied registered Democrat, that
could be a big, big difference. The New York Times
is questioning where are these non white voters who broke
substantially in Trump's favor. Trump got forty three percent of
(09:23):
all non white voters in New Jersey, up from sorry
he lost them by twenty seven points. He lost them
by forty three points. Previously, there was a sixteen point
bump in non white communities in New Jersey in from
twenty twenty to twenty twenty four. Chittarelly needs to see
a similar bump. Because Chittarelly does better than Trump in
the white suburbs, he needs to get Trump like numbers
(09:45):
among the Hispanic areas. Overall, in New Jersey, there have
been four hundred and ninety thousand Democrats who have voted,
and two hundred and sixty one thousand Republicans and one
hundred and sixty five thousand Indies. Breaking down percentage wise,
fifty three percent the electric so far has been Democrat,
twenty nine percent of been Republican, and eighteen percent of independent.
(10:06):
Jack Shirelli needs they's Republicans to show up. He's probably
going to need about a quarter of a million to
three hundred thousand on election day to show up advantage
towards him in order to sit there and win this.
And he's going to need some of these Hispanics, especially
Hispanics in northern New Jersey who voted for Trump, to
sit there and vote with him.
Speaker 5 (10:24):
So we think that he could win in New Jersey
challenging path. What about Virginia. It seems to me like
Jason Mire is based on the polling that I'm seeing,
the attorney general candidate that we've had on this program,
the Republican running against Jay Jones is in very good position.
Seems like Abigail Spanberger is in a solid position on
(10:45):
the flip side going up against the win some seers,
Is that an accurate read? What would you say about
the data right now in Virginia?
Speaker 4 (10:55):
Right So, Virginia is one of these states that doesen
registered voters by party, which makes it fair hard to
kind of like parse through the information. In the last
twenty days, there have been thirteen poles in New Jersey.
It's our in Virginia. Rather in the thirteen poles Miaras
has led in ten of them, it's been tied intwo
and Jones has led in just one. Overall, the average
(11:15):
has Mirs with a four point polling advantage. Spamburger has
somewhere around eight or nine point voting advantage. But the
interesting thing and the interesting question is is the lieutenant
governor's race, which isn't really receiving much you know, a
spotlight the Republican read of the same as genre who's running.
He's only down about four points in the polls. If
(11:36):
the if the it's the generic ballot, because no one knows,
they're just basically voting for who they like by party.
If the generic ballot shows the lieutenant governor's race is
within four points, then really Spamburger shows that she's either
a very popular or Winston Seiers is very unpopular and
people are voting one direction for governor and changing their
vote down ballot. That may be the case. What Winston
(11:59):
Sears has to do is not necessarily win, but make
sure the gap doesn't get to double digits. Because if
the gap gets a double digits, if she's leading by ten, sorry,
Winter is losing by ten eleven, twelve points, getting the
ras over the finish line becomes very very difficult. We're
seeing this. We're seeing when we look at the counties
of who is showing up where deep Republican counties are
(12:20):
having some of the best turnout and some of the worst.
And it's really the area around Richmond, Virginia that is
having gang bus turnout, which is very heavily Democrat, very
college educated. What Southwest Virginia, which loves Donald Trump voted
eighty percent for Donald Trump, what they need to do
is start showing up because they are being the lagging
indicator in this entire election. Fairfax doesn't have great turnouts
(12:42):
so far, neither does Virginia Beach, which is a swing
part of Virginia. But if they want to counter Richmond,
they start need to start seeing Southwest Virginia, Coal Country
Virginia really bring up good numbers, and so far it's
been definitely on the lower end of turnout.
Speaker 3 (12:58):
So you think New Jerry just to reac cap here
is Mom Donnie basically a shoe in? Is it pretty
pretty realistic for New Jersey to be good to go realistic?
Speaker 5 (13:09):
Is?
Speaker 2 (13:09):
I guess the best way to say, had to go red?
Speaker 3 (13:11):
And then your span Burger is probably gonna pull this out,
like how would you just if you're forced to?
Speaker 4 (13:16):
Burger is Spanburger's got probably a ninety something percent chance
of winning, ninety five percent chance of winning uh over
in New Over in New York, I would say Mandani
is probably around eighty five percent or eighty percent chances.
There's a small window for Cuomoll actually probably ninety percent
chance Mondanni's going to sit there and win. Cuomo has
a path and he's had some good things break in
(13:37):
his favor. He just needs that to continue over all
early voting, and we need to see if there is
a ceiling for socialist candidates in New York City. Over
and over in Virginia, Miarez I would say probably is
a fifty five percent chance lead. A lot of it's
going to depend on if wins and Sears keeps her
loss margin tight and if Republicans sit there and pick
up down ballad and over in New Jersey, I would
(13:59):
give you rally about a forty percent chance of winning.
Chittarelli has a lot of things looking good in his direction.
He just needs them all to break. And the narrative
right now across the country is this, I don't know
if Republicans are waiting for election day but they have
not shown up in the numbers, they need to in
these early votes to not give Democrats a giant lead.
I know Republicans are nervous or voting early, but on
(14:22):
election day over in over in New Jersey, Mickey Cheryl
is going to start off the day with a quarter
of a million more bang to vote. And that's vote
that Chitarelly needs to show up and needs to break
in his favor on election day.
Speaker 5 (14:36):
Ryan your podcast up on YouTube. We also can you
can find Ryan if you want more detail on the
numbers game inside of the Clay and Buck podcast network.
And occasionally he makes great beeper jokes that make people
at CNN very sad. Ryan, we appreciate you, my man.
Speaker 4 (14:52):
I appreciate you both. Thank you.
Speaker 5 (14:54):
That is Ryan Gardusky. We're all in on Cozy Earth products.
In fact, I'm up in Chicago and I got in
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(15:16):
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Speaker 6 (16:14):
Stories of Freedom, Stories of America, Inspirational stories that you
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Speaker 5 (16:28):
Welcome back in Clay Travis buck Sexton Show. We are
rolling through the Thursday edition of the program Halloween Eve Buck.
When's the last time you dressed up? Une nine?
Speaker 2 (16:45):
My twenties? Maybe?
Speaker 4 (16:46):
Oh?
Speaker 5 (16:46):
Okay, so you weren't anti costume guy as an adult.
Speaker 3 (16:50):
I mean I was single guy who liked seeing the
ladies in my general milieu of DC or New York
dressed up as various nurses.
Speaker 2 (17:02):
You know.
Speaker 5 (17:04):
So I just didn't know because I could see you
being like, I don't do costumes. I don't go to
costume A lot of.
Speaker 3 (17:09):
Lara Croft, a lot of Lara Croft tomb later costumes
in tomb raador costumes in my world.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
Things like that, you know a.
Speaker 5 (17:17):
Lot more slutty nurses costumes than slutty nurses ever in
real life, just you know, tossing that out there, i'n't
never seen that many, you know, nurse sexy, also chambermaids.
I don't think I.
Speaker 3 (17:28):
Play throws like a clay, throws like a wounded dug
pass across the middle, just wondering if Buck's gonna catch
that one and just get laid out.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
But you know what, I'm just gonna leave your slutty
nurse comments.
Speaker 5 (17:39):
First time I went to France, I was like, I
can't wait to see the maids. I've never actually seen
an attractive French maid either. And there is a little
bit of falsehood, I think in the costume industry out there.
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(18:21):
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(18:43):
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Speaker 2 (18:53):
All right, welcome back in here to Clay and Buck.
Speaker 7 (18:55):
You know what.
Speaker 3 (18:55):
The shutdown is still going on right now, which is
pretty pretty rough. When you start to see you start
to line up some of the challenges some of the
problems here that we've got. And Senator thun who's the
Senate Majority leader. He's not a guy who you see
getting a lot of headlines or viral clips for being
(19:18):
angry about anything and being demonstrative in his outrage, but.
Speaker 2 (19:25):
He's pretty ticked off.
Speaker 3 (19:27):
It seems this has cut twenty Senate Majority leader though,
and let's hear it.
Speaker 7 (19:30):
We are twenty nine days into a Democrat shutdown and
the senator from New Mexico is absolutely right. Snap recipient
shouldn't go without food. People should be getting paid in
this country, and we've tried to do that thirteen times,
and you voted no thirteen times. This is a political game.
These are real people's lives that we're talking about, and
you all just figured out twenty nine days in that. Oh,
(19:52):
there might be some consequences there are, people will run out.
Speaker 3 (19:55):
Of money, Clay, Let's get into some of these concerts. Quince's,
for example, really good piece from a friend of mine,
friend of ours, Kim Strassele over the Wall Street Journal,
laying out what's going on here. For one thing, air
traffic controllers have as of Tuesday, missed their paycheck. Now
they have to show up, but in the past they
(20:17):
have started to call in sick. You know, because even
if you're legally required to show up to work, well,
if you say you have the flu, right, you're not
legally required anymore. So that could be really rough for travelers.
The American Federation of Government Employees, they are four different
unions for commercial pilots, teamsters, etc. They're very, very agitated
(20:41):
about the shutdown snap, which is food stamps that runs
out on the first of November. So that will leave
forty two million people without food stamp benefits.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
And you got some.
Speaker 3 (20:57):
Real stuff coming together here that could be a challenge,
you know, Democrats, Clay have started to break party lines
a little bit. You've had ass Off and Warnock in
Georgia because they know those are competitive seats. That's a
purple state. They have voted with Republicans. Democrats like Fetterman,
(21:18):
Angus King, and Catherine Cortes Mastow have voted with Republicans
all along to reopen the government. So they're getting pretty
close to the sixty threshold here, Clay. I don't think
Republicans can blink on this one, but this has turned
into a real game of chicken.
Speaker 5 (21:36):
Yeah. Look, I mean you have to get to sixty.
We have fifty three Republicans. You just laid it out.
I think the number they've gotten the highest is fifty
six so far, depending on exactly what motion we're talking about.
I also got this email from a listener. I thought
it was interesting. I'm not going to name them, but
listen to this this email that he sent. Hey, Clay,
we met in Omaha at the College World Series. Longtime
(21:58):
follower and love the show. Here's something you may want
to include. Federal employees who opted to work during the
shutdown will be paid in full when the government reopens.
I think everybody out there is nodding along and saying, yeah,
that should happen. This is what he says, and I
would be curious to read more about this. I haven't
(22:19):
seen this reported very much. He says federal employees who
opted not to work will also be paid in full
when the government reopens, and he says, here, you read
that right. My wife. I'm not going to say what
she does, but she's been working during the shutdown because
she's deemed essential and it's the right thing to do. However,
several of her peers opted not to work and to
(22:41):
take a fully paid furlough. So while some federal employees
are working without pay, there are others who are traveling,
going to festivals, relaxing, doing nothing who will be paid
exactly the same as those who worked during the shutdown.
Most of those who aren't working are Trump hating bureaucrats
who just want to stick it to them. This is
(23:03):
something that should be looked into. Look I understand some
people have to go to work air traffic controllers, great example,
because we can't stop air traffic in the country TSA
agents even I flew this morning. I mean that these
guys and gals are showing up because without them, we
can't have security clearance, all those things. I respect anybody
(23:23):
who goes to work and puts in a hard day's work,
but yeah, for some of these government employees, they just
are treating this as a one month paid vacation because
they know they're going to eventually get back pay, and
in the meantime, they just don't show up at work.
So I think that's one reason you're not seeing this
drum beat of anger in some of the same way
(23:44):
that you, because they know their salaries are good and
if you don't have to show up. I wonder what
percentage of federal employees are just not showing up at all,
not doing anything, and know they're basically going to get
paid for a month's vacation. How many of you would
like to have a fully paid month's vacation. I've bet
almost everybody listening right now I would appreciate that.
Speaker 3 (24:04):
Well, there's very different versions of shut down pain for
federal government employees.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
Right.
Speaker 3 (24:10):
For example, you could be in the and I know
that there was that donor that now they've de anonymized, right,
They've come forward to say that the donor is it's
a Trump.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
Trump supporter came forward.
Speaker 3 (24:22):
To pay one hundred and thirty million dollars for military salaries.
So if you're a military family, I mean, for example,
my wife's family, military family, you're generally living paycheck to paycheck, right,
I mean, that's a very very common thing for people
who are active duty, and and that's very common thing
for Americans in general, but it's certainly common for people
(24:43):
who are on the military side of things. So now
they've been covered for a period of time. If you're
in one of these dual income DC bureaucrat households, probably
you went to GW I live in DC. We know
some of these you're talking about households where now I
know D she costs a livings pretty high. But households
where the combined income is quarter of a million bucks
(25:05):
pretty easily, two hundred and fifty k, maybe three hundred k.
Maybe have somebody who works with the federal government, somebody
else who's at an overpaid NGO post. You're making three
hundred k between the two of them, something like that.
So for some of those households, this is more of
a all right, put it on the credit card for a
week or two, we'll pay it off when all the
when the funds all get turned on, I think Clay.
(25:27):
The places where the real pressure starts to come together
is air traffic controllers.
Speaker 5 (25:34):
They should be getting full pay. They should be getting
full pay. Let's just be honest.
Speaker 3 (25:38):
And the idea that they're coming into not getting paid,
and that some of them are going to say, you
know what, this is bull crap and I'm gonna stay home,
and that means there's gonna be shortages, and that means
long difficult lines. My friends, how angry are people going
to get if at some of the major airports. I
(25:58):
love Miami, but I cannot say bad things about m
I a airport. Miami Airport is.
Speaker 5 (26:02):
Just one not well designed for a post nine to
eleven world.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
It's horrible.
Speaker 3 (26:07):
It's like, well, it's it's they should, honestly, if they
could just start from scratch, I wish they would. It's
terrible airport. But when you have to wait three or
four hours because of air traffic control delays, or maybe
your flight even just gets canceled out right when you
get to the airport, or.
Speaker 2 (26:22):
You can't those.
Speaker 3 (26:25):
Because some of those people, that's right, they get ticked
off and they start calling, calling congressional switchboards and you
know that there or you've got people that are really angry.
And it also hurts the airlines. Now the airlines have
to rebook people and they gotta pay people all this stuff.
So I think that's a real pressure point. And and
(26:46):
my sense right now is the Democrats are just waiting
till after the election, right, I think the postry. I
think Democrats are gonna are gonna cave, but they're gonna
cave after election day.
Speaker 5 (26:54):
I also think the increasingly, even the media. I saw
Jake Tapper calling out Democrats and saying, actually, you're the
ones that shut down the government. Increasingly, it's hard for
them to argue somebody else's to blame. Really more of
a gentle reminder from me, Yeah, right, But I mean
when even CNN is saying, hey, ultimately, this is your fault.
Do we have the Harry Inton clip where also politically,
(27:17):
I know we had it yesterday. I don't know if
we rolled it over today. But when CNN has got
their pulling and they're coming on and they're saying, actually,
now voters are starting to blame Democrats in a substantial way.
And this overall shutdown is benefiting to a large extent
the Republican Party. When all that starts to stack up,
(27:40):
then people are looking around and saying, I think we
talked about this a little bit yesterday. Buck. What's the
off ramp? How do you get out of this mess
that you're in right now? What is the what is
the escape hatch for Democrats? Right now? There isn't a
good one, which is why I think they'll wait till after,
(28:02):
you know, five days from now, when we have the
twenty twenty five elections, and then they'll find a way
to step off of the government shut down conveyor belt.
Speaker 2 (28:14):
I don't see a way around it.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
And the Democrats really what they're hoping for is what
they've been able to do in the past, where they
just have they have a bigger megaphone and they lie
more aggressively about what's going on, and so they can say,
you know, it's not our fault. No, this is the
Democrats have absolutely full responsibility for this government shutdown.
Speaker 2 (28:35):
They chose it, they've made it happen.
Speaker 3 (28:37):
Republicans have been voting to open the government and the
Democrats now have just done this thing of well Republicans could, no,
you can't, you know, if you're holding up a deal.
Be honest about how you're holding up a deal. That's
not what they're doing, Clay. You're trying to just change
the narrative to this is somehow the Republicans that have
(28:57):
brought this thing to a halt and it's just a lie.
And they don't have the kind of media power that
they're used to having where they can shout down the
truth as effectively.
Speaker 5 (29:10):
Yeah, and ultimately if they lose again, I think that's
just raw political calculus. I think they've been nervous about
Virginia and turn out in Northern Virginia, and they feel
like if people are angry and they aren't working and
they're overwhelmingly federal employees as often is the case in
Northern Virginia, that they're likely to turn out and vote Democrat.
(29:32):
They couldn't ben the knee before this stupid no king's protest.
I saw someone tweet this buck, but it is very funny.
How funny is it to go from we're not going
to allow kings to please give me food? It is
like a ultimately, please can't give me food. It is
the ultimate thing that you see historically kings please everybody's starving,
(29:53):
will you please give us food. That's like the snap angle.
Now we're not gonna allow a king, Oh, king, please
give us food. But I think they see it as
politically beneficial in Northern Virginia, they can't ben the knee
before no kings. Now, they see it as politically beneficial
before the midterm, as soon of the before the twenty
twenty five elections, as soon as that's over. They want
(30:15):
people to forget about this before the midterms because I
think politically it is turn toxic for them nationwide, and it's.
Speaker 3 (30:23):
Only going to become more toxic as these pain points
continue on. So well, I just wanted to update on
this one. I think that it is coming to an
end here, but it's not going to come to come
to an end for.
Speaker 2 (30:36):
A few more days.
Speaker 3 (30:38):
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sizes are growing as a part of this economy every day,
and there's a real appetite for AI to make everyone's
(31:01):
life easier and more productive. The White House, the Trump administration,
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(31:21):
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Speaker 6 (32:06):
You ain't imagining it. The world has gone insane.
Speaker 5 (32:10):
We claim your Sanity with Clay and Fun.
Speaker 6 (32:13):
Find them on the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you
get your podcasts.
Speaker 5 (32:18):
Welcome back in Clay Travis bock Sexton Show. We've got
a couple of different things that I wanted to play
for you here. As we finish off second hour, I
had the team pull over the audio that we had
had of Harry Inton on CNN. I believe telling everybody, Hey,
the numbers are not ideal for Democrats on this shutdown.
(32:42):
Voters are blaming Democrats. That's cut thirty three.
Speaker 8 (32:45):
The worry in terms of climate change, simply put, hasn't shifted.
It has not reached the majority of Americans. What are
we talking about greatly worried about climate change? You go
all the way back to nineteen hundred and eighty nine,
it was thirty five percent, twty six percent, and in
twenty two, twenty five, look at that, it's forty percent,
the same number as we had twenty five years ago.
Speaker 2 (33:04):
Is it the biggest thing they're worried about?
Speaker 8 (33:06):
Yeah, it is not anywhere close to being the biggest
thing that people are worried about. Top issue facing United
States climate change it was three percent and twenty twenty
one two percent on average of polls in twenty twenty
three and this year the average.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
Polls two one two.
Speaker 8 (33:19):
It is very very low on the list of priorities.
Speaker 5 (33:23):
To the bottom.
Speaker 8 (33:23):
Line is not only are we seeing that the number
has not really.
Speaker 5 (33:27):
Moved over the last thirty six years, but.
Speaker 8 (33:29):
In terms of being the top issue, it's simply put
has not broken through.
Speaker 5 (33:34):
All Right, that was actually the climate change collapse, not
the government shutdown collapse in support. We'll see if we
can get that in the third hour for you, Keith
and Illinois. I was reading a email from a listener
about federal furloughed workers and what exactly is going on?
What you got for us?
Speaker 9 (33:54):
Yeah, I'm a furloughed worker, and because of my position
description in my job, I am not allowed to go
to work. In fact, if I even log on a
government computer to check my email, I risk getting fired.
Speaker 5 (34:07):
Okay, but will you get paid for the full shutdown?
Speaker 9 (34:12):
I will because of the law they passed, But it's
not a vacation. I don't have a choice, so I'm
not allowed to go in.
Speaker 5 (34:19):
Correct, But I would love to be told I can't
check an email or I'll immediately get fired and I mean, again,
thank you for the call. I understand the Hey, they
won't let me work. I think there's a lot of
people out there who if you told them, hey, if
you check your email, you're going to get fired, and
you get a full month of pay without having to
(34:39):
do anything, I would like to sign up for that.
Speaker 2 (34:42):
This is this is a mindset thing.
Speaker 6 (34:43):
Really.
Speaker 3 (34:44):
A lot of our listeners don't like who are affected
by the shutdown, and I get this. They don't like
the implication that you know, well, it's you know, I'm
being lazy and just getting paid to do nothing. They
do have no choice. But another way to see this is,
if you know you're going to get paid when the
government opens, it's not that bad of it, not that
bad of a situation. I have a friend who is
(35:04):
on furlough who's working on a memoir. Yeah, so you
know it's not that bad.
Speaker 5 (35:09):
I mean, if I knew I got full paid furlough,
I wouldn't mind being on full paid furlough.
Speaker 3 (35:15):
And you can't be and you can't be punished, right that.
One of the things about vacation a lot of jobs
is you think you take too much time. Even if
people say it's Okay, you're like, but is it really okay?
In this situation, everybody's it's like being mandated to stay
home during COVID, Like it's not your fault and there's
no punishment for this.
Speaker 5 (35:32):
I would also point out, and I've always thought this,
if you cannot work for a month and everything's fine,
your job's not that important. I'm just gonna say, like,
you can leave for a month and not do it,
and then you come back and you're just able to
do it. All right, We got the correct Harry Inton
in now Buck Cut thirty four, we heard Harry Inton
talk about climate James collapsing, which the support for you.
Speaker 3 (35:54):
You know, we gotta play it we come back. We don't,
we don't have time. All right, we'll play it when
we come back to stay with us through the break.
That's right, we call the teas. Also, by the way,
breaking news for people in Omaha. Since I was reading
in Omaha email book, your head coach is staying present,
Matt Ruhle is staying in Nebraska. Probably didn't expect to
hear that, but kve fab which should be called KFAB,
(36:18):
I guarantee you that is big news there. When we
come back We'll play you the Harry int and the
fact that that's collapsing. We will talk with you about
Gavin Newsom being caught and yet more lies about what
he said about Charlie Kirk and Jade Vance on some
UFOs plus will be joined by the Lieutenant Governor of
Indiana to talk redistricting in that state.
Speaker 5 (36:41):
All that and more. You won't want to miss it,
and we will be hanging out with you. Coming up
with the third Hour Thursday edition ex
Second hour of Play and Buck kicks off with our
friend Ryan Gerdusky does not have a pag'er on his
person as far as I know right now, does not
have a paper, he joins us.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
He is, of course the host of It's a Numbers Game.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
Like Clay and Forever, you two are like bonded in
the special brotherhood of banned from CNN. So Clay is
banned from CNN, Ryan is banned from CNN.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Quite honestly, I.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
Feel a little left out, but it's all worked out
because Ryan's podcast is fantastic. Highly recommend you go check
it out in the Clay and Buck podcast network. He
is also now on YouTube. It's a Numbers Game. If
you just want to know more about politics and impress
all your friends who think they understand what's going on
in the elections or just the polls month to month
or any data out there, listen to It's a Numbers
(00:50):
Game and just steal all of what Ryan says. He
gives you full permission if you watch and listen to
steal what he says and tell all of your annoying
lib friends. All right, Ryan, with all that, and we
appreciate you making the time for us. Let's dive and
we got three important races here. You know what will
make it to a dealer's choice. Which one do you
want to dive into?
Speaker 2 (01:10):
First? We've got New Jersey, Virginia, New York City mayor's race.
What do you think?
Speaker 4 (01:15):
Let's talk about New York City first. It's the top
of my sheet of my cheat sheet of numbers for
you guys. So New York City the mayor's election obviously
on Tuesday, with a three way race between Cuomo Zaramondani
and Curtis Leewa. The polling has been fairly consistent right
it shows Mandani with an average up fifteen point lead
(01:35):
overall depending on which poll you look at, but it's
about fifteen point lead early on. There was an art
by the Gothamist giving some glimmer of hope to Cuomo
and his supporters, is that the electorate so far in
this election, in the early votes, has been very, very old.
There are more people between the ages of seventy to
seventy five voting than people between the ages of eighteen
(01:56):
to twenty four. That was not happening in the Denver
Creig primary when Mandanni won. The electric has been progressively
becoming younger as the days have gone up. Though when
the voting began, voters under forty were just twenty eight
percent of people showing up in the early vote. Now
they're up to thirty five percent. And what's giving some
(02:16):
anxiety to Cuomo supporters is this Sunday is the New
York City Marathon, which runs through the quote unquote Commi
Corridor of the big socialist blocks of New York City
where people votes and make good weather people might go
and vote right afterwards. The electric has been slightly older,
slightly blacker. Some of the outer boroughs have been showing
up in bigger numbers. Aside from Brooklyn and Manhattan, Staten
(02:38):
Island and Queens are showing up in big numbers. The Bronx,
which is Quomo's best county, is having horrific turnout, though
they're not showing up, you know, in the numbers that
they need to for Cuomo. So that's certainly going to
give his supporters a lot of anxiety. What Cuomo really
needs right now are two very big things Republicans to
(02:58):
start showing up. Republicans are only five percent of all
registered Republicans in New York City have shown up to
go vote so far in the early election. That's compared
to eight percent of all Democrats. Just three percent of
registered independents have shown up. But this electorate is much
more democratic right now than the twenty twenty four election
(03:19):
when Trump got surge in New York City did much
better than people expected him to. So he's going to
need a lot more Republicans to show up and then
to break against against Curtis in a big way, and
Curtis to underperform, and for Republicans to show up, and
really for seniors in the far parts of the Ottle
Borrow of Southern Bronx, Western Queens, Northern Bronx, and southern
(03:40):
Brooklyn to really pick up momentum as this goes on.
This is going to be a gigantic turnout election, probably
the biggest elections of the nineteen ninety three mayor election
when Rudy Giuliani won against Mayor Dinkins. He was sorry, yeah, mens,
Mayor Dinkins, he was a It was a one point
(04:00):
four million person turnout. This could cut closer to two million,
is what I'm hearing from people analyzing on the ground.
A lot more people are showing up. We are at
thirty three percent of the twenty twenty one numbers with
in just five days of early voting, so immense turn
out of New York City Republicans just really got to
start picking up, and they got a break for Cuomo
(04:21):
for him to have a chance, and more seniors have
to show up. But seniors have been showing up, they
have to show up more. So that's the New York
City thing right now. It still looks like I'm in
Donna victory. There is a small path for Cuomo. He
just has to really get on the ground to get
these older voters out to support him.
Speaker 5 (04:37):
We had Curtis Sliwan yesterday, Ryan, and if Curtis Sleiwad
dropped out, let me just ask it to you this way.
What do you think the chances are we wake up
Wednesday and a majority of New York City voters will
have actually voted against Mom Donnie, but that is split
among Cuomo and Sliwa. Do you think that's likely? Do
you think that Mom Donnie will get an overall majority?
(05:00):
Do you think more people will vote against Mamdani? But
in a three way he's going to end up as
the likely winner that direction.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
So in all the polls, Mandani has only gotten a
majority in one poll out of all the polls, saying
in New York City, no one really expects him to
get a majority. Now things could change, especially with it's
going to be a real question of is there a
ceiling for these socialist candidates? Are they so toxic that
they can't get passed? In New York City's case, or
(05:27):
Mandani seven eight nine hundred thousand votes, If he gets
over a million votes, it really shows the ceiling isn't there.
And this is the conversation that Democrats used to have
about Trump, is that he can't get more than forty
seven percent until he got close to fifty. If there
is a ceiling for Mandanni, if they say his policies
are too unpopular or he is too unlikable, and certainly
(05:48):
his favorable ratings have dropped in all the poll I've seen.
And then that shows that that that hurts people like
AOC who wants to run in the future, That hurts
the far left who want to run nationwide in the future.
For the presidency to say, hey, listen, there's a cap
on how many people really are willing to sit there
and go to the far left.
Speaker 3 (06:08):
Speaking of Ryan Gardusky, It's a Numbers Game is his
podcast on the Clay Endbuck Network. Go check that one out.
Go make sure you have the iHeart app and you're
checking out what's in the feed. Ryan, talk to me
about Chitdarelly in New Jersey. I'm seeing some things that
make me feel kind of warm and fuzzy about it.
But I'm getting a little ahead of myself. I'm sure
you're here to set me straight. What's really going on?
(06:29):
Is this the best chance for a Republican shock win?
Speaker 4 (06:33):
Yes, this is one hundred percent aside from Jason, here
is the best chance for a Republicans. So here's here's
the here's the thing that get the good thing going
for Chitdarelli is that there's a lot more registered Republicans
and there ever have been for Chittarelli in the last
time that he ran, Like I think eighty thousand more
Republicans and the more of the last time that he ran,
(06:54):
and a lot of fewer Democrats. People have switched registrations
and people have just stopped voting, or they've passed away,
or they just you know, they're no longer keep up
the registration, becoming independent here's the bathing for Chittarelly. In
twenty twenty four, at this point, Republicans had a lead
for Trump in the presidential election in in person voting.
(07:14):
Right there were more Republicans showing up to vote in
person in the early voting than Democrats. Even in a
state like New Jersey has such a big Democratic lead,
that is not the case for Chittarelli. Right now, Democrats
have a seventy three hundred person lead in the early vote.
Now that's not a ton, that's not unimaginable to sit
there and break, because in twenty twenty one, Chittarelli won
(07:35):
election day votes by over by about two hundred thousand votes.
What gives me anxiety is that the mail in vote
lead for Democrats is substantially large. Two hundred and twenty
one thousand more Democrats have submitted a mail in ballid
than Republicans. But the craziest thing is, for this bok,
seventy two thousand Republicans in New Jersey have received a
(07:58):
mail in ballad and have not returned it. There are
seventy two thousand votes for Jack Chendarelli on people's kitchen tables,
and they haven't returned those ballots. Yet that's a lot
of catching up to do to chase those ballots and
make sure they were returned. Now once again, he's gonna
win election day. He may win it by a lot.
There are two different questions when it comes to how
(08:19):
are these voters sitting there and breaking Jack guendarily has
a support of all the Orthodox Jewish communities in New Jersey,
which is substantial, especially like in Ocean County where his
Lakewood in it. That's bringing a lot of votes. Many
of them are registered Democrats. There's also the question of
what is going on with these non white voters who
have been Democrats their whole life and broke for Trump.
(08:40):
Remember in twenty twenty. In the twenty twenty election, Trump
won just twenty six percent of Hispanic majority place of
precincts in New Jersey. In twenty twenty four, Trump won
thirty nine percent thirteen point bounds in New Jersey and
Hispanic majority precincts. How are they going to vote because
they vote just they voted for Jack Chitarelli at the
(09:02):
same rate they voted for Trump in twenty twenty one.
So Trump received twenty six percent, Chittarelly received twenty six percent.
If Chittarelly gets thirty nine percent or anywhere close among
these Hispanic people who have mostly cied registered Democrat, that
could be a big, big difference. The New York Times
is questioning where are these non white voters who broke
substantially in Trump's favor. Trump got forty three percent of
(09:23):
all non white voters in New Jersey, up from sorry
he lost them by twenty seven points. He lost them
by forty three points. Previously, there was a sixteen point
bump in non white communities in New Jersey in from
twenty twenty to twenty twenty four. Chittarelly needs to see
a similar bump. Because Chittarelly does better than Trump in
the white suburbs, he needs to get Trump like numbers
(09:45):
among the Hispanic areas. Overall, in New Jersey, there have
been four hundred and ninety thousand Democrats who have voted,
and two hundred and sixty one thousand Republicans and one
hundred and sixty five thousand Indies. Breaking down percentage wise,
fifty three percent the electric so far has been Democrat,
twenty nine percent of been Republican, and eighteen percent of independent.
(10:06):
Jack Shirelli needs they's Republicans to show up. He's probably
going to need about a quarter of a million to
three hundred thousand on election day to show up advantage
towards him in order to sit there and win this.
And he's going to need some of these Hispanics, especially
Hispanics in northern New Jersey who voted for Trump, to
sit there and vote with him.
Speaker 5 (10:24):
So we think that he could win in New Jersey
challenging path. What about Virginia. It seems to me like
Jason Mire is based on the polling that I'm seeing,
the attorney general candidate that we've had on this program,
the Republican running against Jay Jones is in very good position.
Seems like Abigail Spanberger is in a solid position on
(10:45):
the flip side going up against the win some seers,
Is that an accurate read? What would you say about
the data right now in Virginia?
Speaker 4 (10:55):
Right So, Virginia is one of these states that doesen
registered voters by party, which makes it fair hard to
kind of like parse through the information. In the last
twenty days, there have been thirteen poles in New Jersey.
It's our in Virginia. Rather in the thirteen poles Miaras
has led in ten of them, it's been tied intwo
and Jones has led in just one. Overall, the average
(11:15):
has Mirs with a four point polling advantage. Spamburger has
somewhere around eight or nine point voting advantage. But the
interesting thing and the interesting question is is the lieutenant
governor's race, which isn't really receiving much you know, a
spotlight the Republican read of the same as genre who's running.
He's only down about four points in the polls. If
(11:36):
the if the it's the generic ballot, because no one knows,
they're just basically voting for who they like by party.
If the generic ballot shows the lieutenant governor's race is
within four points, then really Spamburger shows that she's either
a very popular or Winston Seiers is very unpopular and
people are voting one direction for governor and changing their
vote down ballot. That may be the case. What Winston
(11:59):
Sears has to do is not necessarily win, but make
sure the gap doesn't get to double digits. Because if
the gap gets a double digits, if she's leading by ten, sorry,
Winter is losing by ten eleven, twelve points, getting the
ras over the finish line becomes very very difficult. We're
seeing this. We're seeing when we look at the counties
of who is showing up where deep Republican counties are
(12:20):
having some of the best turnout and some of the worst.
And it's really the area around Richmond, Virginia that is
having gang bus turnout, which is very heavily Democrat, very
college educated. What Southwest Virginia, which loves Donald Trump voted
eighty percent for Donald Trump, what they need to do
is start showing up because they are being the lagging
indicator in this entire election. Fairfax doesn't have great turnouts
(12:42):
so far, neither does Virginia Beach, which is a swing
part of Virginia. But if they want to counter Richmond,
they start need to start seeing Southwest Virginia, Coal Country
Virginia really bring up good numbers, and so far it's
been definitely on the lower end of turnout.
Speaker 3 (12:58):
So you think New Jerry just to reac cap here
is Mom Donnie basically a shoe in? Is it pretty
pretty realistic for New Jersey to be good to go realistic?
Speaker 5 (13:09):
Is?
Speaker 2 (13:09):
I guess the best way to say, had to go red?
Speaker 3 (13:11):
And then your span Burger is probably gonna pull this out,
like how would you just if you're forced to?
Speaker 4 (13:16):
Burger is Spanburger's got probably a ninety something percent chance
of winning, ninety five percent chance of winning uh over
in New Over in New York, I would say Mandani
is probably around eighty five percent or eighty percent chances.
There's a small window for Cuomoll actually probably ninety percent
chance Mondanni's going to sit there and win. Cuomo has
a path and he's had some good things break in
(13:37):
his favor. He just needs that to continue over all
early voting, and we need to see if there is
a ceiling for socialist candidates in New York City. Over
and over in Virginia, Miarez I would say probably is
a fifty five percent chance lead. A lot of it's
going to depend on if wins and Sears keeps her
loss margin tight and if Republicans sit there and pick
up down ballad and over in New Jersey, I would
(13:59):
give you rally about a forty percent chance of winning.
Chittarelli has a lot of things looking good in his direction.
He just needs them all to break. And the narrative
right now across the country is this, I don't know
if Republicans are waiting for election day but they have
not shown up in the numbers, they need to in
these early votes to not give Democrats a giant lead.
I know Republicans are nervous or voting early, but on
(14:22):
election day over in over in New Jersey, Mickey Cheryl
is going to start off the day with a quarter
of a million more bang to vote. And that's vote
that Chitarelly needs to show up and needs to break
in his favor on election day.
Speaker 5 (14:36):
Ryan your podcast up on YouTube. We also can you
can find Ryan if you want more detail on the
numbers game inside of the Clay and Buck podcast network.
And occasionally he makes great beeper jokes that make people
at CNN very sad. Ryan, we appreciate you, my man.
Speaker 4 (14:52):
I appreciate you both. Thank you.
Speaker 5 (14:54):
That is Ryan Gardusky. We're all in on Cozy Earth products.
In fact, I'm up in Chicago and I got in
my hotel room already dropped off the bags before I
came over to the studio here, and I even looked
at the bed and thought, for a minute, you know,
these sheets are not going to be as nice as
the ones that I have at home. And I've never
even thought about sheets before. That's how nice Cozy Earth
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and she said, you know a lot of my friends
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Speaker 6 (16:14):
Stories of Freedom, Stories of America, Inspirational stories that you
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find them on the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you
get your podcasts.
Speaker 5 (16:28):
Welcome back in Clay Travis buck Sexton Show. We are
rolling through the Thursday edition of the program Halloween Eve Buck.
When's the last time you dressed up? Une nine?
Speaker 2 (16:45):
My twenties? Maybe?
Speaker 4 (16:46):
Oh?
Speaker 5 (16:46):
Okay, so you weren't anti costume guy as an adult.
Speaker 3 (16:50):
I mean I was single guy who liked seeing the
ladies in my general milieu of DC or New York
dressed up as various nurses.
Speaker 2 (17:02):
You know.
Speaker 5 (17:04):
So I just didn't know because I could see you
being like, I don't do costumes. I don't go to
costume A lot of.
Speaker 3 (17:09):
Lara Croft, a lot of Lara Croft tomb later costumes
in tomb raador costumes in my world.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
Things like that, you know a.
Speaker 5 (17:17):
Lot more slutty nurses costumes than slutty nurses ever in
real life, just you know, tossing that out there, i'n't
never seen that many, you know, nurse sexy, also chambermaids.
I don't think I.
Speaker 3 (17:28):
Play throws like a clay, throws like a wounded dug
pass across the middle, just wondering if Buck's gonna catch
that one and just get laid out.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
But you know what, I'm just gonna leave your slutty
nurse comments.
Speaker 5 (17:39):
First time I went to France, I was like, I
can't wait to see the maids. I've never actually seen
an attractive French maid either. And there is a little
bit of falsehood, I think in the costume industry out there.
But you know what, there's not falsehood in Saber. They'll
keep you safe, whether you're going to a Halloween costume
party or you're just walking around in your parking garage.
(17:59):
Maybe you got a little bit of a late night job,
maybe you got an early morning start, maybe you are
just not that comfortable in many different parts of your city. Heck,
I'm in Chicago right now, and as soon as I
said I was in Chicago, everybody was like, better keep
your head on a swivel. No telling what might happen
with Jesse Smallett's attackers downtown later tonight, Clay. But I've
(18:21):
got Saber help take care of me and my family.
It's spelled sab r e the website saberradio dot com.
They will hook you up no matter what you're looking for,
whether it's a home defense projectile pepper spray launcher, or
how about if it's just pepper spray itself. We have
every single one of these products in the Travis household.
(18:43):
You're gonna want them to saberradio dot Com. Sab R
radio dot com fifteen percent off saberradio dot Com.
Speaker 2 (18:53):
All right, welcome back in here to Clay and Buck.
Speaker 7 (18:55):
You know what.
Speaker 3 (18:55):
The shutdown is still going on right now, which is
pretty pretty rough. When you start to see you start
to line up some of the challenges some of the
problems here that we've got. And Senator thun who's the
Senate Majority leader. He's not a guy who you see
getting a lot of headlines or viral clips for being
(19:18):
angry about anything and being demonstrative in his outrage, but.
Speaker 2 (19:25):
He's pretty ticked off.
Speaker 3 (19:27):
It seems this has cut twenty Senate Majority leader though,
and let's hear it.
Speaker 7 (19:30):
We are twenty nine days into a Democrat shutdown and
the senator from New Mexico is absolutely right. Snap recipient
shouldn't go without food. People should be getting paid in
this country, and we've tried to do that thirteen times,
and you voted no thirteen times. This is a political game.
These are real people's lives that we're talking about, and
you all just figured out twenty nine days in that. Oh,
(19:52):
there might be some consequences there are, people will run out.
Speaker 3 (19:55):
Of money, Clay, Let's get into some of these concerts. Quince's,
for example, really good piece from a friend of mine,
friend of ours, Kim Strassele over the Wall Street Journal,
laying out what's going on here. For one thing, air
traffic controllers have as of Tuesday, missed their paycheck. Now
they have to show up, but in the past they
(20:17):
have started to call in sick. You know, because even
if you're legally required to show up to work, well,
if you say you have the flu, right, you're not
legally required anymore. So that could be really rough for travelers.
The American Federation of Government Employees, they are four different
unions for commercial pilots, teamsters, etc. They're very, very agitated
(20:41):
about the shutdown snap, which is food stamps that runs
out on the first of November. So that will leave
forty two million people without food stamp benefits.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
And you got some.
Speaker 3 (20:57):
Real stuff coming together here that could be a challenge,
you know, Democrats, Clay have started to break party lines
a little bit. You've had ass Off and Warnock in
Georgia because they know those are competitive seats. That's a
purple state. They have voted with Republicans. Democrats like Fetterman,
(21:18):
Angus King, and Catherine Cortes Mastow have voted with Republicans
all along to reopen the government. So they're getting pretty
close to the sixty threshold here, Clay. I don't think
Republicans can blink on this one, but this has turned
into a real game of chicken.
Speaker 5 (21:36):
Yeah. Look, I mean you have to get to sixty.
We have fifty three Republicans. You just laid it out.
I think the number they've gotten the highest is fifty
six so far, depending on exactly what motion we're talking about.
I also got this email from a listener. I thought
it was interesting. I'm not going to name them, but
listen to this this email that he sent. Hey, Clay,
we met in Omaha at the College World Series. Longtime
(21:58):
follower and love the show. Here's something you may want
to include. Federal employees who opted to work during the
shutdown will be paid in full when the government reopens.
I think everybody out there is nodding along and saying, yeah,
that should happen. This is what he says, and I
would be curious to read more about this. I haven't
(22:19):
seen this reported very much. He says federal employees who
opted not to work will also be paid in full
when the government reopens, and he says, here, you read
that right. My wife. I'm not going to say what
she does, but she's been working during the shutdown because
she's deemed essential and it's the right thing to do. However,
several of her peers opted not to work and to
(22:41):
take a fully paid furlough. So while some federal employees
are working without pay, there are others who are traveling,
going to festivals, relaxing, doing nothing who will be paid
exactly the same as those who worked during the shutdown.
Most of those who aren't working are Trump hating bureaucrats
who just want to stick it to them. This is
(23:03):
something that should be looked into. Look I understand some
people have to go to work air traffic controllers, great example,
because we can't stop air traffic in the country TSA
agents even I flew this morning. I mean that these
guys and gals are showing up because without them, we
can't have security clearance, all those things. I respect anybody
(23:23):
who goes to work and puts in a hard day's work,
but yeah, for some of these government employees, they just
are treating this as a one month paid vacation because
they know they're going to eventually get back pay, and
in the meantime, they just don't show up at work.
So I think that's one reason you're not seeing this
drum beat of anger in some of the same way
(23:44):
that you, because they know their salaries are good and
if you don't have to show up. I wonder what
percentage of federal employees are just not showing up at all,
not doing anything, and know they're basically going to get
paid for a month's vacation. How many of you would
like to have a fully paid month's vacation. I've bet
almost everybody listening right now I would appreciate that.
Speaker 3 (24:04):
Well, there's very different versions of shut down pain for
federal government employees.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
Right.
Speaker 3 (24:10):
For example, you could be in the and I know
that there was that donor that now they've de anonymized, right,
They've come forward to say that the donor is it's
a Trump.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
Trump supporter came forward.
Speaker 3 (24:22):
To pay one hundred and thirty million dollars for military salaries.
So if you're a military family, I mean, for example,
my wife's family, military family, you're generally living paycheck to paycheck, right,
I mean, that's a very very common thing for people
who are active duty, and and that's very common thing
for Americans in general, but it's certainly common for people
(24:43):
who are on the military side of things. So now
they've been covered for a period of time. If you're
in one of these dual income DC bureaucrat households, probably
you went to GW I live in DC. We know
some of these you're talking about households where now I
know D she costs a livings pretty high. But households
where the combined income is quarter of a million bucks
(25:05):
pretty easily, two hundred and fifty k, maybe three hundred k.
Maybe have somebody who works with the federal government, somebody
else who's at an overpaid NGO post. You're making three
hundred k between the two of them, something like that.
So for some of those households, this is more of
a all right, put it on the credit card for a
week or two, we'll pay it off when all the
when the funds all get turned on, I think Clay.
(25:27):
The places where the real pressure starts to come together
is air traffic controllers.
Speaker 5 (25:34):
They should be getting full pay. They should be getting
full pay. Let's just be honest.
Speaker 3 (25:38):
And the idea that they're coming into not getting paid,
and that some of them are going to say, you
know what, this is bull crap and I'm gonna stay home,
and that means there's gonna be shortages, and that means
long difficult lines. My friends, how angry are people going
to get if at some of the major airports. I
(25:58):
love Miami, but I cannot say bad things about m
I a airport. Miami Airport is.
Speaker 5 (26:02):
Just one not well designed for a post nine to
eleven world.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
It's horrible.
Speaker 3 (26:07):
It's like, well, it's it's they should, honestly, if they
could just start from scratch, I wish they would. It's
terrible airport. But when you have to wait three or
four hours because of air traffic control delays, or maybe
your flight even just gets canceled out right when you
get to the airport, or.
Speaker 2 (26:22):
You can't those.
Speaker 3 (26:25):
Because some of those people, that's right, they get ticked
off and they start calling, calling congressional switchboards and you
know that there or you've got people that are really angry.
And it also hurts the airlines. Now the airlines have
to rebook people and they gotta pay people all this stuff.
So I think that's a real pressure point. And and
(26:46):
my sense right now is the Democrats are just waiting
till after the election, right, I think the postry. I
think Democrats are gonna are gonna cave, but they're gonna
cave after election day.
Speaker 5 (26:54):
I also think the increasingly, even the media. I saw
Jake Tapper calling out Democrats and saying, actually, you're the
ones that shut down the government. Increasingly, it's hard for
them to argue somebody else's to blame. Really more of
a gentle reminder from me, Yeah, right, But I mean
when even CNN is saying, hey, ultimately, this is your fault.
Do we have the Harry Inton clip where also politically,
(27:17):
I know we had it yesterday. I don't know if
we rolled it over today. But when CNN has got
their pulling and they're coming on and they're saying, actually,
now voters are starting to blame Democrats in a substantial way.
And this overall shutdown is benefiting to a large extent
the Republican Party. When all that starts to stack up,
(27:40):
then people are looking around and saying, I think we
talked about this a little bit yesterday. Buck. What's the
off ramp? How do you get out of this mess
that you're in right now? What is the what is
the escape hatch for Democrats? Right now? There isn't a
good one, which is why I think they'll wait till after,
(28:02):
you know, five days from now, when we have the
twenty twenty five elections, and then they'll find a way
to step off of the government shut down conveyor belt.
Speaker 2 (28:14):
I don't see a way around it.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
And the Democrats really what they're hoping for is what
they've been able to do in the past, where they
just have they have a bigger megaphone and they lie
more aggressively about what's going on, and so they can say,
you know, it's not our fault. No, this is the
Democrats have absolutely full responsibility for this government shutdown.
Speaker 2 (28:35):
They chose it, they've made it happen.
Speaker 3 (28:37):
Republicans have been voting to open the government and the
Democrats now have just done this thing of well Republicans could, no,
you can't, you know, if you're holding up a deal.
Be honest about how you're holding up a deal. That's
not what they're doing, Clay. You're trying to just change
the narrative to this is somehow the Republicans that have
(28:57):
brought this thing to a halt and it's just a lie.
And they don't have the kind of media power that
they're used to having where they can shout down the
truth as effectively.
Speaker 5 (29:10):
Yeah, and ultimately if they lose again, I think that's
just raw political calculus. I think they've been nervous about
Virginia and turn out in Northern Virginia, and they feel
like if people are angry and they aren't working and
they're overwhelmingly federal employees as often is the case in
Northern Virginia, that they're likely to turn out and vote Democrat.
(29:32):
They couldn't ben the knee before this stupid no king's protest.
I saw someone tweet this buck, but it is very funny.
How funny is it to go from we're not going
to allow kings to please give me food? It is
like a ultimately, please can't give me food. It is
the ultimate thing that you see historically kings please everybody's starving,
(29:53):
will you please give us food. That's like the snap angle.
Now we're not gonna allow a king, Oh, king, please
give us food. But I think they see it as
politically beneficial in Northern Virginia, they can't ben the knee
before no kings. Now, they see it as politically beneficial
before the midterm, as soon of the before the twenty
twenty five elections, as soon as that's over. They want
(30:15):
people to forget about this before the midterms because I
think politically it is turn toxic for them nationwide, and it's.
Speaker 3 (30:23):
Only going to become more toxic as these pain points
continue on. So well, I just wanted to update on
this one. I think that it is coming to an
end here, but it's not going to come to come
to an end for.
Speaker 2 (30:36):
A few more days.
Speaker 3 (30:38):
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and there's a real appetite for AI to make everyone's
(31:01):
life easier and more productive. The White House, the Trump administration,
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Speaker 6 (32:06):
You ain't imagining it. The world has gone insane.
Speaker 5 (32:10):
We claim your Sanity with Clay and Fun.
Speaker 6 (32:13):
Find them on the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you
get your podcasts.
Speaker 5 (32:18):
Welcome back in Clay Travis bock Sexton Show. We've got
a couple of different things that I wanted to play
for you here. As we finish off second hour, I
had the team pull over the audio that we had
had of Harry Inton on CNN. I believe telling everybody, Hey,
the numbers are not ideal for Democrats on this shutdown.
(32:42):
Voters are blaming Democrats. That's cut thirty three.
Speaker 8 (32:45):
The worry in terms of climate change, simply put, hasn't shifted.
It has not reached the majority of Americans. What are
we talking about greatly worried about climate change? You go
all the way back to nineteen hundred and eighty nine,
it was thirty five percent, twty six percent, and in
twenty two, twenty five, look at that, it's forty percent,
the same number as we had twenty five years ago.
Speaker 2 (33:04):
Is it the biggest thing they're worried about?
Speaker 8 (33:06):
Yeah, it is not anywhere close to being the biggest
thing that people are worried about. Top issue facing United
States climate change it was three percent and twenty twenty
one two percent on average of polls in twenty twenty
three and this year the average.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
Polls two one two.
Speaker 8 (33:19):
It is very very low on the list of priorities.
Speaker 5 (33:23):
To the bottom.
Speaker 8 (33:23):
Line is not only are we seeing that the number
has not really.
Speaker 5 (33:27):
Moved over the last thirty six years, but.
Speaker 8 (33:29):
In terms of being the top issue, it's simply put
has not broken through.
Speaker 5 (33:34):
All Right, that was actually the climate change collapse, not
the government shutdown collapse in support. We'll see if we
can get that in the third hour for you, Keith
and Illinois. I was reading a email from a listener
about federal furloughed workers and what exactly is going on?
What you got for us?
Speaker 9 (33:54):
Yeah, I'm a furloughed worker, and because of my position
description in my job, I am not allowed to go
to work. In fact, if I even log on a
government computer to check my email, I risk getting fired.
Speaker 5 (34:07):
Okay, but will you get paid for the full shutdown?
Speaker 9 (34:12):
I will because of the law they passed, But it's
not a vacation. I don't have a choice, so I'm
not allowed to go in.
Speaker 5 (34:19):
Correct, But I would love to be told I can't
check an email or I'll immediately get fired and I mean, again,
thank you for the call. I understand the Hey, they
won't let me work. I think there's a lot of
people out there who if you told them, hey, if
you check your email, you're going to get fired, and
you get a full month of pay without having to
(34:39):
do anything, I would like to sign up for that.
Speaker 2 (34:42):
This is this is a mindset thing.
Speaker 6 (34:43):
Really.
Speaker 3 (34:44):
A lot of our listeners don't like who are affected
by the shutdown, and I get this. They don't like
the implication that you know, well, it's you know, I'm
being lazy and just getting paid to do nothing. They
do have no choice. But another way to see this is,
if you know you're going to get paid when the
government opens, it's not that bad of it, not that
bad of a situation. I have a friend who is
(35:04):
on furlough who's working on a memoir. Yeah, so you
know it's not that bad.
Speaker 5 (35:09):
I mean, if I knew I got full paid furlough,
I wouldn't mind being on full paid furlough.
Speaker 3 (35:15):
And you can't be and you can't be punished, right that.
One of the things about vacation a lot of jobs
is you think you take too much time. Even if
people say it's Okay, you're like, but is it really okay?
In this situation, everybody's it's like being mandated to stay
home during COVID, Like it's not your fault and there's
no punishment for this.
Speaker 5 (35:32):
I would also point out, and I've always thought this,
if you cannot work for a month and everything's fine,
your job's not that important. I'm just gonna say, like,
you can leave for a month and not do it,
and then you come back and you're just able to
do it. All right, We got the correct Harry Inton
in now Buck Cut thirty four, we heard Harry Inton
talk about climate James collapsing, which the support for you.
Speaker 3 (35:54):
You know, we gotta play it we come back. We don't,
we don't have time. All right, we'll play it when
we come back to stay with us through the break.
That's right, we call the teas. Also, by the way,
breaking news for people in Omaha. Since I was reading
in Omaha email book, your head coach is staying present,
Matt Ruhle is staying in Nebraska. Probably didn't expect to
hear that, but kve fab which should be called KFAB,
(36:18):
I guarantee you that is big news there. When we
come back We'll play you the Harry int and the
fact that that's collapsing. We will talk with you about
Gavin Newsom being caught and yet more lies about what
he said about Charlie Kirk and Jade Vance on some
UFOs plus will be joined by the Lieutenant Governor of
Indiana to talk redistricting in that state.
Speaker 5 (36:41):
All that and more. You won't want to miss it,
and we will be hanging out with you. Coming up
with the third Hour Thursday edition ex
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