Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to today's edition of the Clay, Travis and Buck
Sexton Show podcast. The third Hour Clay and Buck starts
right now, everybody. This is Buck Rockett solo today. Clay
on vacation back next week. But he is having a
in his own words, a phenomenal time and he loves
it over there. Italy's great, great food, great people, beautiful country.
(00:24):
So much to recommend it. So this country's got a
lot of things that recommend it too. Unfortunately, the current administration,
I don't think is on that list people that are
impressing anybody else anywhere else in the world. We have
Joe Biden, as you know, trying to prevent bank failure
(00:47):
from breaking out. Right now here is the former FDIC
chairman who is out there warning everybody, look, this is
this is going to get worse. This is this is
going to get bad with this bank failure stuff. Clip ten.
(01:07):
I do think there are probably going to be more
failures along the way. The problem we have is the
same one when we had back in the nineteen seventies,
when the government was out of control with its fiscal policies.
It's monetary policies, inflation set in and banks We're just
not ready for that or prepared for that, and we
wound up losing some five thousand banks and thrifts during
(01:29):
that period. We won't lose anywhere near that number this
time because we don't have that many, But we lost
so many. We only have about forty five hundred banks today.
And it's also not just the US problem as you
as you see today with credit suites. I mean this
is worldwide. Is global ever everybody's been out of control
of lately. Again, I say this with full respect for
(01:53):
the fact that I'm not an economist. I don't work
in finance. I don't work in banking, um, but I
you know a lot of people who do, including members
of my own family, and I can see how things
are going and how a narrative is being constructed one
way or the other. If you were trying to come
up with how do and I've asked this question before,
(02:16):
what is there to look for that would happen that
would send us into a really brutal, grinding economic recession.
A massive global banking crisis would be high on the list, right.
There are some other things that could pop up. You know,
(02:38):
you have a massive oil shock. Let's say your energy
prices skyrocketing because you know, this was a big discussion
years ago, the Straits of Horror moves, for example, and
you know, twenty to thirty percent of the world's energy
going through this in Iran, could use that as an
energy choke point, you know, stuff like that. Sure, that
(02:58):
could all create major economic decline, But if you're looking
for something that's realistic and and foreseeable at some level,
a massive problem for the banks would have to be
one of the top things that you would say, Okay, well,
now we've got a real issue, because they are really
(03:21):
the foundation of our global financial system. Right bank stop
lending businesses stop functioning. Businesses stop functioning, functioning producers stop
being able to make you know, make the money for
their products. You know, everything from agricultural to finish goods
to manufactured goods, I mean everything. Commodities pricenses are affected.
So you see, there's the cascading effect. And now you
(03:43):
have to ask yourself, what is more likely that banks
are now trying to do everything they can to keep
the you know, keep it close hold, that they maybe
got over extended on the wrong side of these interests hikes,
or or that we've all, we've seen everything so far.
(04:05):
We've seen all okay, Silicon Valley Bank and it was
woke and doing some really risky stuff and all that.
But that's as bad as it's going to get. You think,
so well, here, here's where I have to also put
this out there. Are we going to have another interest
rate hike? Right? So we know that inflation is just
chipping away every day at the money in your bank
(04:29):
account and making everything you buy more expensive. That is
our reality. It is a massive tax on everybody, but
a tax that is the most regressive possible in so
many ways because it is raising the prices of the
goods and services that you need to live. Right, It's
not it's not like, oh gosh, you know the price
(04:49):
of a maserati is going up? What am I going
to do? Right? This is? This is milk, butter, eggs,
rent gas, And so these economic realities we face are
as follows. They can either raise the interest rate, which
will almost certainly. I mean, now, think about the problem
we've seen with the bags up to this point. They've
(05:10):
bought all these long term treasuries and I know this,
this gets and I find this fascining. I love learning
about stuff. One of the reasons I love this job
so much is that I have a mean, an excuse
to the sense, but I have a justification for all
the books I've got dog geared and throw all over
my bedroom and in my study and in my radio studio,
(05:33):
to learn as much new stuff, to bring as much
good information to you as possible, and learning more and
more about this banking crisis is fascinating, and it's also
I think, really instructed for a lot of us about
the weak seems in our financial system, and people the
Ron Paul lights out there are all saying I told
(05:53):
you so. They're all saying it, and they're right. And
in the end, the Fed people are all saying it
and they're looking more and more right. But if you
buy ten year treasury bonds and then you have a
liquidity issue in the meantime and the rates go up
against the bonds that you've bought in the bank, and
(06:15):
you have to sell them before you intended to or
wanted to sell at a loss, essentially right, because the
ten year treasury bond is a liquid instrument that you
can sell at any point before it reaches maturity. But
if you need the cash now, you're selling. Oh, it's
almost like selling a stock at a loss. If you
have a stock that was guaranteed to be one hundred
(06:35):
dollars in ten years, but you need cash now and
right now it's trading at seventy dollars. You're you're out there.
You know, if you if you paid one hundred four
US how a bond works. But you know, if you're
if you paid more than you're selling before, you're taking
a loss. That's the problem these banks space. If they
raise interest rates, it could do this again. You could
(06:56):
have another round of this, and now how do the
banks handle this? Right? What are they gonna because nobody
wants to be the bank that's like, hey guys, if
you raise interest rates, we're gonna go under two. But
by the same token, what do you do about inflation?
This is because they have created these distortions. Policy and
(07:19):
politics have been driving monetary decision making, and finally the
bill has come due and we don't have any good
options right now. They're we're just sort of hoping. We're
just hoping it's not gonna be that bad. It's like
we're waiting for the storm to hate. You know. The
tracker is showing a nasty storm on the way. They
(07:40):
a weather tracker, and we're just like, well, maybe it
won't be that bad. Good luck with that one. And
then you've of course got the leadership right now of
the Biden administration. Kamala Harris by the way here saying
on just the very straightforward issue of is Joe Biden
(08:03):
going to be running for president again? Still this kind
of non committed, noncommittal, you know, kind of sort of
maybe he plays six as R. Joe Biden has said
he intends to run, and if he does, I will
be running with him. If he does, it's March of
(08:24):
twenty twenty three, right, I'd be worth in a year.
It's super Tuesday, my friends, right, Like, what are we
even talking about here? If he runs, this is his
vice president. Now. I still think he is going to run,
But I do think it's interesting that the Democrats are
(08:45):
hoping to keep this. They want to keep the focus
off Biden right now as much as possible and make
it seem like his appointees and the experts in the
banking system are the ones who have this issue fully
in hand. But they really don't, and they're going to
have to make a choice, and I'm not even sure
how they think this is going to go. They're either
(09:07):
going to raise interest rates. As I said, you know,
they're gonna hike interest rates, and that means you're gonna
almost certainly push the US into a recession and you're
gonna have banks that are going to fail and you're
gonna have more problems. Or you're just gonna let inflation
continue to go up and up it up, and the
(09:28):
problem inflation is longer it goes on, the harder it
is to bring it down. So you only got six
what is this now? Five? I'm sorry, five days before
Federal Reserve policymakers are going to sit down in Washington
and decide what interest rates are going to be, and
(09:51):
they have no This is where you got to keep
in mind, they have no good options. They are choosing
between bad decision in terms of the risks. So it
was just a week ago Powell was saying the Central
Bank might accelerate its interest rate hikes because of inflation.
(10:13):
But now we've got the bank crisis, So now what
are they gonna do? So maybe they do a little
bit of a small a small hike, but this effects
like I say this affects all of us, all of
the people listening this right now, all of us across
the country. And they keep acting like, if we just
calibrate this properly, if we just hit that special, that
(10:34):
that sweet spot of just raising enough, they're you know,
they're throwing number, they're throwing darts at a board here,
at someone that they don't really know. And we know
that they can't know what's on the balance sheets of
all these banks. So maybe Silicon Valley was well. Obviously
there have been other banks too, but maybe it was
the worst defender. But there are gonna be other banks
(10:56):
that might come under a whole lot of pressure here too.
That could be a major problem. And I think that
what you're going to see is a recession on the
horizon here. People have been saying we're already in recession,
but really what they've done is stretch out the pain
so much that we are all the proverbial frog in
(11:19):
the pot of boiling water right inflatians, going up and
up and up and up and up, and then try
to bring it down a little bit. And they just
they don't want people to realize, oh my gosh, that hole.
Send everybody home and spend trillions of dollars thing that
we did. And then on top of that, now I
will say, there's a pretty strong argument to be made,
and I'm hearing some economists making it that we were
(11:41):
able to handle that pretty well under the circumstances. And
then Biden comes into office and just decides, oh, man,
you mean the house hasn't burned down, Let's throw some
gasoline on it. Let's let's go after this with the
one point nine trillion. And then the additional spending beyond that,
I mean that they did was essentially modern monetary. It was.
(12:04):
It was a Bernie Sanders budgetary moves that Biden was pulling,
and the Democrats were spending and they wanted to do
even more. So this is why we're heading into a
precarious phase. And I would just say the one thing
that Democrats happen on their back to their minds is
that a plunging us into a recession in the election
(12:27):
year is gonna make it no matter how much they lie,
cheat and steel at the ballot box, plunging us into
a recession is going to make it really hard for
any Democrat to win. So they're they're stuck. They're stuck
between a rock and a hard place right now. They
have no good options and they're trying to just sort
of shield Biden from the blowback of I think what
(12:49):
we can all see coming, Because if this isn't, if
this is not the moment before the plunge, what is?
What is? I mean? I really I asked that at
all earnestness, Like, if we're not about to hit the
rough times now, given all the factors involved, I guess
we're just never going to go into a recession? Is
(13:10):
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(13:31):
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past and still lit every day the Clay Travis and
Buck Sexton Show. Oh the Fouch is still out there
(14:55):
arguing that, you know, he did everything right pretty much,
except the problem is he was wrong on everything. So
how do you argue that you were right on the
stuff when you were wrong on the stuff that at
the time you said you were certain of You didn't
say I think, little Fouch, you said I know. When
(15:18):
you say I know and you don't, you are lying.
But here's how he explains it on Morning Joe. Here
is Fouci talking about being wrong all the time, but
actually being right. The big surprise of all when we
expected that it would go up and then go back
down and then sort of disappear and go into the background,
(15:40):
we wound up having variant after variant and surge after
surge right up to what we're having right now, which
are sublineages of the Amicron surge, which started well over
a year ago. So this has been really a moving
target and that's the reason why we've had a many
times change some of the things that we said and recommended,
(16:02):
people saying that's flip flopping but it isn't. It's learning
as you go along and making your recommendations according to
the new data as it evolves. It's a learning as
you go. Did he say anything about learning as they go? Really?
You know, this is something of a revelation from Fauci,
(16:23):
isn't it? Was there ever a point in the two
plus years, and folks, this is still an issue because
you still got people wearing masks. You still have medical
centers all over the country, even here in Miami, making
you wear masks. This is not gone. This is still
a reality around us. But they shed over and over
(16:43):
and over again. We know, and they simply did not,
and they were lying to you. That's what comes across here.
You don't get to say, I am certain the science
is settled many many times on different thing things, And
actually it turns out the science was not settled. You
were wrong on all of those points, and say, you know,
(17:06):
we were just figuring it out as we went, because
that's what we were saying at the time. You guys
don't know, there will be more data. Don't mandate this stuff.
There's no evidentiary basis for it. And they were saying,
shut up, we've got it. We know what we're doing here.
The science that Fauci exemplifies, that he embodies the he's
(17:29):
the personification of science. Apparently that's what he told us,
you know it, That's what he told us. And and
for a lot of Democrats, you might wonder, why do
they still put this guy on TV? Why do they
still want to hear from him? It's because somewhere in
the backs of their minds, the you know, amend soy
(17:52):
milk Frappuccino Morning Joe crowd knows they were wrong. They
know that they were They were on the rong side
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number two T dot org. So what's gonna happen in
twenty twenty four? We don't know. It's very early. Nobody knows,
but interesting dynamics to see right now that will be
playing out for many months. CNN, what is you know?
We we've we've asked the question, you know, how does
(19:20):
it left define say a woman or you know, what
is a citizen? There a lot of questions, but what
is CNN? What is CNN? Is it? Is it still
going for the whole news network? They? I don't know,
but it exists, that's for short. It's still a thing
out there. And CNN has a has some polling that
(19:41):
I wanted to share with you. I thought this was
interesting talk about how this is perhaps reflecting our political
realities right now. But it shows Disantist versus Biden, Biden
versus Trump play seventeen. There is this new poll from
quinnipianc University and it's not about the base, but it
is an argument in favor of the Santists. If you're
(20:02):
of the Santis campaign person, it's with independent voters and
it head to head matchup forty nine percent of Independence
favored to Santists over Biden Biden forty five. But then
you have a Biden Trump matchup and fifty percent of
Independence go to Biden versus forty two percent for Trump. Obviously,
it's way early and DeSantis hasn't even announced the candidacy,
(20:22):
although that hasn't stopped Congressman Chip Roy from endorsing. Yeah,
this is a strong argument for DeSantis. So here's what
we see. Independent voters are going to largely determine the
twenty twenty four presidency. That's just a fact. Now, the
(20:43):
primary has to come first, and the primary is where
I think Donald Trump clearly and I've seen polling that
that supports this Donald Trump is at his strongest because
Trump's support within the Republican base is unlike anything that
we certainly are scene for any Republican politician in my lifetime.
(21:03):
I mean maybe technically Reagan. I was alive when Reagan
was in office, so but I was a kid. I
don't really remember it. So Trump has a huge momentum
I think behind him with the primary, but on the
independent side of things, and it matters. I know, we
(21:24):
don't think about it a lot, especially going to the primary,
but it matters on the independent side of things. What
is the Trump plan to win over independence? That's what
I'm getting out. I'm not suggesting that you know, even
CNN there was saying that it's super early. I'm not
suggesting that this really means anything. I think it's just
more of an interesting piece of analysis that needs to
(21:45):
be done on we often are. We're so focused on
Trump in the primary that there also needs to be
a discussion of Trump winning independent voters. How's he going?
And this is what the people that I know, and
we had some reach out yesterday. The people who I
know are already decided in favor of Trump in the primary.
(22:10):
Now they know they can count on other Republicans to
vote along with Trump. I mean, I think that's pretty
pretty clear. There's always we're talking in very broad strokes here,
But but how do they think if independence and by
the numbers, by registration and recent electoral history, independence are
(22:31):
going to be essential to twenty twenty four, If independence
are going to be essential, what is the Trump plan
to win them over. I've heard some interesting policies recently
about pro family growth policies and things like this. You know,
what is Trump going to present to independence that will
(22:54):
be compelling? Because that's a problem for him right now.
That's a challenge. I also think that what we're seeing
with the possible economic let the market just had a
little bit of variety today, maybe you know, maybe the
bank somehow and we just sort of keep stumbling along.
That's possible too. But if we go into rough economic times,
(23:17):
then I think it benefits Trump considerably because his background
as a businessman and also as a president who put
COVID aside, which is a pandemic that you know, shut
down the world. Basically, when Trump was president, the economy
was roaring. That is just what happened. So maybe that
(23:39):
then becomes the pitch maybe that becomes the way that
Trump is able to start to break through with independent voters.
But I haven't seen anything yet. Now. I'm sure the
Trump team would say, if asked something along the lines of, well,
we're not focused on that. We're focused on winning the primary,
and that's all fine, But I'm just focused on saving
(24:00):
the country right. We're focused on this place known as
America and what's best for us going forward, and that
means defeating the Democrats full stop in twenty twenty four.
That means not allowing Joe Biden eight years as president,
eight years of Biden as president. You know, sometimes I
(24:21):
think about this and I just what has happened to
this once great land of ours? Like Joe Biden, it's
gonna be eighty four years old at the end of
his second term, maybe even older than that, guys, check me.
Is that he's gonna be eighty five or eighty six.
I mean, he's gonna be way up there for a president.
And yet they have changed the structure of the Democrat primary.
(24:45):
I think it's they're going to There might be some
steps they still have to take here, but here is
Representative Jim Clyburne, who is saying yeah, of course, moving
the first Democrat primary to South Carolina, changing around the
primary schedule. This was the Democrat machine, the DNC machinery,
(25:07):
moving in such a way that is too Joe Biden's benefit.
Play a team making sure South Caroline goes first. Congressman
was indeed a political choice. So the part of the
president and his team to make sure he does not
run into any LBJ problems. Right, Oh my goodness, you
mean there's a political choice being man in the political process.
(25:30):
Come on, man, I absolutely, yeah, we all know this, right,
but it's just going to show you that's what we
know that. You know, sometimes you have to look at
some of these factors that there's no explanation for other
than somebody's running. I said this before. I know some
(25:50):
of you think I'm maybe a little a little crazy
on this. But as soon as I saw the scientists
them most recently and saw that this guy had gotten
in really good physical shape, meaning he had lost he
was he was kind of a cuddly dad looking guy.
You know, I'm not casting spersions or throwing stones. You know,
he heavy, d was a little heavier, you know, Rhonda
(26:11):
Santis was a little was a little bigger. As soon
as he dropped all this way, I'm like, oh, this
guy's running for president obviously, and there are a lot
of other reasons to believe it too, but for me,
that was just the that was it, like that as
soon as I thought, okay, so there's no question they've
moved the Democrat primary to benefit Joe Biden. So there's
no real discussion I think, as to whether or not.
And you know, I've been very consistent on this that
(26:34):
the the Democrat machinery of of getting the votes out
coupled with the propaganda machinery of pretending Joe Biden is
something that he is not. That's how they think they
stay in power. They don't have another There is no
other game plan. If there was some other game plan,
(26:55):
we would already see what it is at some point.
Maybe the other options Kamala Harris, and she sort of
takes the you know, they passed the baton or the
past the scepter. You know, they passed the authority on
to Kamala from Joe. But I don't think that they believe,
and they're they're right to believe that they would have
(27:16):
no real shot of Kamala Harris being able to win
an actual national election. So these are just some of
the early dynamics for twenty twenty four. How does Trump
appeal to independent voters? And I think that will matter
somewhat in the primary, because there's gonna be an argument
made by any Trump challenger, Nicky Haley, Pompeio, Bolton. I mean,
(27:41):
he's in there too, and obviously de Santis that that's
Trump's weakness in a general election. Now that was that
is a much bigger weakness than it would have been
in twenty sixteen because of you know, all the things
that they're going to throw out there about Trump's record.
They're gonna say Trump can appeal to independence. How does
Trump come back at that. That's something that as much
(28:05):
as people think of it as a general election issue,
I think it will matter more in the primary than
maybe some anticipate because it goes to electability. If you
can't convince those independence, you can't get elected. So how
does Trump tell the Republican face I can also get independence?
And again I asked the question, I'm not suggesting this
(28:26):
is rhetorical like he has no answer. I'm saying he's
going to have to address this with Russia and then
with Biden, it's yeah, this guy's running and this is
the plan. Even though Kamala is still doing this. Maybe
is that just kamalas when she says if he runs,
I'll run with him. Do you think she's just leaving
open the possibility that there's some last minute change that
(28:48):
favors her. I don't know. It does strike me as
a strange, strange answer from her, though. We've talked about
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(29:59):
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(30:23):
Jedediah blah as the Pile that came out today for
our deep dive. Talked about the valuing of masculinity, how
feminism is causing feminism there we Go is causing or
the feminists are causing misery for women. A whole lot
of interesting sort of cultural social conversation with Jedediah. But
(30:46):
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It's a fantastic app. You can listen to a whole
bunch of stuff on it, but the Clay and Buck
podcast should be at the top of the list. And Clay,
I've gotten the update from him during the show. He
misses all of you, but he is having a great
time with his family in Italy. He sent me a
(31:08):
photo of him with the h with his wife and
three boys at the coliseum. I think so he's having
a great time loves Italy. He'll be back next week.
So I'm holding the fort down here obviously this week tomorrow,
and I think it's Clay back Monday. Guys, will he
back Tuesday? Well, anyway, he'll be back next week for sure.
And with all of that established, I would very much
(31:33):
like to get to some of your calls Thomas in Westchester,
New York. Have actually spent a lot of time with Westchester.
What's going on? Thomas? Hey, Hey a Buck. Two points. First,
if the economy two years is doing well, you're not
beating Joe Biden. You could bring back Reagan, You'll beating
(31:53):
Joe Biden. Second with Trump. Trump's argument is going to
be on stage, whether you love much tweet or not.
Four years under an economy we were doing great. We
weren't in a Ukraine spanning one hundred billion dollars. I'm
approving I proved myself. The other people on stage have not.
It's like playing minor league baseball. Yes you're doing great
in the minor leagues, but can you perform in the
(32:15):
big leagues? And that's going to be Trump's argument. You
might not love my tweets, but when I was president,
we didn't have all these commotions. I'm gonna tell you,
I think that I just want to I want to
add thank you Tom for calling in from from Westchester,
New York. Uh. I think I think what Thomas says
is correct. I would agree that, first of all, if
(32:35):
if you have a good economy and the incumbent president
Joe Biden, plus all the advantage he gets built in
from the Democrat media and all the little propagandists running
around as journalists, UH, it's gonna be very tough to beat.
I'm I'm clear on this, and I want everyone else
to be. You know, this is this is going to
be an up hill battle for Republicans no matter who
(33:01):
our nominee is. Okay, it's going to be hard to
win this election, very hard, meaning I think the odds
are actually against the Republican with the exception this is
part of what he said of if we go into
a really bad economy that switches. It doesn't mean it's
a given, but it means that I think the odds
favor the Republican challenger if if we're in a straight
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if we're in a nasty recession, or we go into
a really bad period of stagflation, which I mentioned yesterday,
continuously rising inflation, low productivity, high unemployment, and then I
think you're you're going to have people say enough, enough
is enough. So the economy is going to be a huge,
a huge piece of this. Look, I mean, people, there's
a lot of things we've said about the twenty twenty
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to election already and how how disappointing it was, how
wrong the polls were, and what a what a mess
it turned out to be for those of us who
are hoping for a reversal of Bidenism and all the
craziness he represents. And I would just say the economy
wasn't that bad. Inflation was pretty high, but people had
gotten pretty used to it at that point. Now when
(34:08):
I say it wasn't that bad yet, it's a bad economy.
It wasn't what it should be, but it wasn't bad
enough to crush the Democrats. Obviously, look at what happened.
So if you have a really bad economy, I think
that will make a big difference. But then also what
he said about Trump's pitch to the voters, I think
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that's that's where Trump needs to go. Trump needs to
talk policies. He needs to talk what he would do
go you know, if president again, and also what he
did while president, and talk about China trade, talk about
US Mexico Canada agreement, talk about you know, the lowest
you know, unemployment rate for a whole bunch of different categories.
(34:49):
But one thing he used to always say was lowest
unemployment for the black and Hispanic communities respectively. I think
ever in this country, I mean there were there were
all these different figures that he would cite. And just
also where the stock market was, homeownership. You go down
the list, right, So guys, i'm your I'm your your
a team, top tier big league player, and I'm the
(35:14):
one who can get it done again. That is Trump's
sweet spot for trying to get both a primary win
and election. This stuff about Rhonda Santists, it was bad
on COVID. It's it's honestly, and I you know, I
say this with with fondness for Trump. Um, it's just
it's a it's a bad look. It's it's a it's
(35:36):
a little insulting to the people who hear it. It's
a little insulting, you know, because it's just not true.
This like Rhonda Santists wasn't so great in Florida, thing
like that. Don't attack on things that aren't true, right, Um,
don't attack on things that that are objectively false. I
know it's politics and people to fight dirty. But when
I say don't do it, I mean from to do
whatever he wants, I think it won't be effective. He's
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effective when he is what Thomas was just saying a
moment ago, which is talk about what he did that
was great and what he can do that as great,
and why he's the guy, you know more so than
other candidates. That that's his pitch. This uh, you know,
getting really down into the gutter and throwing throwing low
blows at other Republicans in the ring. It's not a
(36:21):
good look. It's not gonna work. I don't think it's
gonna work. I mean, I could see, I could be wrong. Um,
what do we got tomorrow? Friends? Oh, we have a
director who will be coming on the show, or I
should say a representative of the movie Jesus Revolution. So
Jesus Revolution, which is doing very very well. We love
(36:42):
content that is well conservative, religious pro Jesus stuff like that.
We'll talk about it tomorrow on the show with all
the news of the day. This is Buck signing off
shields high