August 14, 2025 • 35 mins
In this episode, Ryan discusses the current political landscape as it pertains to the upcoming 2026 midterms, focusing on polling data and its implications for both the Republican and Democratic parties. He highlights the challenges Republicans face in key states and the shifting voter registration dynamics. Additionally, Ryan addresses changes to the U.S. citizenship test, advocating for a more rigorous assessment of potential citizens. And ends with an Ask Me Anything segment, where he answers listener questions about immigration and polling. It's a Numbers Game is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Monday & Thursday.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Welcome back to a numbers game. Thank you all for
being here on this Thursday. I'm happy to be back
with you. I really hope you enjoyed the last episode
on Monday by Congressman Corey Mills. I may have an
update in the future. I know this isn't a gossip
podcast per se, even though my friends really want me
to do a gossip podcast, but this is not it.
(00:25):
When I have a big scoop like that, though that's
a little bit on the gospel side, I'm going to
share with you because otherwise a reporter's going to scoop it,
and you guys should get it first because you're my
loyal audience. I had a family reunion last week actually,
and one of my cousins who listens to the pod
said to me, I really like your show. There's a
little too much math in it, so episode I'm going
(00:47):
to try to break that up a little bit with
episodes that aren't so math intensive. And this episode is
both a little math intensive and has a narrative a
story to it that I think is important something that
the Trump administration is doing that people should know. So
I wanted to do a catch up episode on all
the data that has broken in the last week because
(01:09):
I've had a lot of guests, heavy episodes and more
thematic episodes. So this one is on the twenty twenty
six midterms, right. I want to talk about the generic
ballad because it's how will affect us in a nation
depending on who wins the midterms. So the congressional generic ballad,
which is overall how people are feeling in the country.
(01:30):
They don't talk about a specific race, but you know
who they are likely to support. It shows that Republicans
have slipped about a point or two in the last month.
The Real Clear Politics polling average shows it's a D
plus three five race. That means that the nation as
a whole is voting about three point five percent more
(01:50):
Democrat than Republican. Now, remember the twenty twenty four election
was an R plus two race, so that represents a
five point five percent swinging towards the Democrats from the
previous election. Also remember this, I need this to be
a very important covey when I say we're talking about polling.
Polling does not predict the future. Polling is a snapshot
(02:12):
of the present. Things can change, things will change, but
it's important to know where people are. The economy is
really not great for a lot of people. I know
a lot of people applying for jobs, first time jobs,
college rees and college grads with graduates who are smart,
people who are hardworking, and they cannot get an interview
for a job. They cannot find a job. It's rough.
(02:35):
Interest rates are still pretty high, not high compare like
the nineteen seventies, but they're high in general, and prices
are still high. We're still dealing with the overall ramifications
of printing too much money during President Biden's time in office.
All that's still there. And I think that people hope
for a magic wand that Trump would fix everything, and
it has not happened. So a D plus three zero
(03:00):
point five race is better for Republicans than the twenty
eighteen election, but it likely means it's very likely, means
they're going to lose the House representatives. The Senate is
still probably safe for a Republican. I mean, it would
be very difficult for Democrats to actually win the Senate
at this time. But DP plus three point five means
states like Michigan and Georgia, which are potential pick up
(03:22):
races for Republican It's very difficult. It becomes very difficult
in those states to sit there and see how they
win those states, and it also becomes really hard for
them to see how they hold North Carolina and potentially Maine.
I mean, Main's a weird state. So put that to
the side. Because Susan Collins is her own animal and
it's a unique set of circumstances. There hasn't been a
(03:44):
ton of recently high quality polling. If you look at
the results from the Fabrizio Lee Pole, which is published
in the Most Journal in April than July, it shows
about a one point shift towards Democrat. The Signal poll
also shows about a one point shift towards Democrat. In
the generic ballot Quantus Insight, which was a really good
pollster in twenty twenty four, they have a two point
swing towards Democrats. And the CMBC poll, not a high
(04:08):
quality poll, but it's worth mentioning has a three point
shift towards Democrats. Very few polls have had any kind
of shift towards Republican Atlas Intel did, but they're i mean,
they're saying it's going to be a Democratic landslide. So
it's one point doesn't mean anything. Emerson also has a
one point swing towards Republican, so not great news for
Republicans going into key swing states and key Senate races.
(04:30):
In the twenty twenty six elections. The Georgia Senate race
had a good poll for Republican congress from Mike Collins,
someone I know a little bit. I've spoken him a
few times. I think he's a really good guy. He's
got a lot of legislative accomplishments for somebody who hasn't
spent decades in office. He's only been there for I
think maybe four or six years. But it had him
(04:53):
only one point behind Democrat John Ossop in the state
of Georgia. Allins can win the sea, but he's gone
going to need the national environment to improve, not I
would say significantly. It's gonna have to improve for him
to win the seat, maybe by one point five to
two points in order him to win the seat. Otherwise
they're going to blame Republicans, the people of the votable,
(05:13):
blame Republicans for everything bad, and it will take him
down like everybody else. In North Carolina, an Emerson pole
found that former Governor Roy Cooper has a six point
lead over R and C chairman Michael Wattley. This is
I believe Wattley's first time ever running for office. Cooper
is a great recruit for Democrat. He was a popular
(05:34):
governor in a purple state. Who is young enough that
I mean he's not young he's like sixty eight, but
I mean, I guess in the Senate he's young enough.
He's young enough. Just seems like he's not tainted by
politics because he's only ever run for state positions. He's
not tainted by DC politics in this poll. And I'll
admitted it's an early poll because his election is not
until November of twenty twenty six. Cooper has a benefit
(05:57):
of winning more Republicans than Wattley does Democrat, and Cooper
is crushing it with independence right now. Even though North
Carolina hasn't elected a Democrat to the sentences two thousand
and eight, that doesn't mean that they can't win this year.
I remember Roy Cooper has never lost an election statewide
in North Carolina, and I was looking it up in
(06:17):
twenty twelve when he was running for Attorney general. I
think for the re elect Republicans didn't even put forward
a challenger, and that was the year that Romney won
North Carolina, he almost lost the governor's race in twenty
sixteen as well. And had any of those races gone
the other way, or had they even pit up a challenger,
I don't know why he was running unopposed for a
(06:39):
state wide office. At least, you know, throw Joe Schmo
up there and hope for a miracle, because once in
a while it does happen. They just let him, you know,
have an easy, one hundred per easy ride victory. He also,
I mean in the twenty sixteen governor's race, he would
have lost had the Libertarians not run a candidate. The
Libertarian can for Governor got two percent of the vote
(07:02):
in it, and he Roy Cooper only won by eleven
thousand votes. So another case of a third party candidate
really ruined it for Republicans. It will be a tough
seat to hold. It's not impossible, but it's going to
be a tough seat because Roy Cooper is probably the
top recreit they could have gotten for this election cycle. Now,
there is an election this year that I want to
(07:23):
talk about too. Elections actually won the New Jersey Governor's race.
There was a poll from stem site Research. It's a
new research company, but it's from the Polsters of Monmouth,
which are very well respected polsters in the state. I
honestly think that they get things really way too off
to get as much respect as they do. But they
(07:45):
have a long history of getting things right. But they've
had a couple of doozies, and when they I meanies,
when I mean doozies, I mean doozies in polling, but
before that decades of correct polling. So they find that
Democrat Mickey Cheryl leading Republican Jack Chitdarelli by six points
forty eight to forty two in the Garden State. That
(08:06):
doesn't seem great, but remember four years ago Chitterarelli was
down in the same in the Mammoth Pole, the same
people who did this poll by sixteen points against incumbent
Governor Phil Murphy, and that race wasn't even considered close,
it wasn't considered worth paying attention to. Chitarelli is the
underdog in this fight, but it is not the same
(08:27):
state that it was four years ago. I think people
need to remember that as we're heading towards these very
important governor elections, like including in Pennsylvania, a top recruit
announced they're running against Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania. I think
it's important to remember that it's not the same state.
Right in Pennsylvania, the Democratic advantage in voter enrollment is
(08:52):
five hundred thousand fewer than it was three years ago
the first time he ran. When he ran in twenty
twenty two, when Oshapi ran for governor, Democrats had five
hundred There was five hundred and sixty thousand more registered
Democrats than Republicans. As of now, and we are still
eighteen months from the election, there were only sixty thousand
(09:13):
more Democrats than Republicans. Once again, super popular governor probably
going to win, has the advantage, but there's a lot less,
you know, meet on the bones for the Democratic base.
The same is true in New Jersey. In November twenty
twenty one, Democrats had one million, seventy thousand more registered
(09:34):
Democrats than Republicans. Bill Murphy always had that advantage of
over a million registered voters. Since then, in the four
years since that election, there are forty thousand fewer Democrats
and one hundred and sixty thousand more Republicans. So and
that was a race that Murphy won by eighty four
thousand votes, and the Republican advantage has increased by two
(09:56):
hundred thousand in that four year period. So if there's
any kind of polling error like there was four years ago,
Chittarelli was supposed to lose by like eight points, and
I think he lost by two and a half. If
any kind of polling error exists this time, like it
did last time, and like it has done in several
other elections. But if that polling error exists of five
(10:18):
to six points, that new voter enrollment advantage in New
Jersey of two hundred thousand, one hundred and sixty thousand
more Republicans forty thousand fewer Democrats means Chitarelly has a chance.
You know, he's not in the lead. It's not a
super tight race right now, but he's the underdog. But
(10:39):
he has a chance. The election is not over in
New Jersey, New York City, the mayor's election in my
home city. This one hurts because it's basically over. It is.
If there was anyone in political leadership in this godforsaken
city with two brain cells of scratched together and start
a fire, we could have a chance. A new Siena poll,
(11:02):
which only had a sample survey of three hundred, so
it's not a very high sample survey, but it has
Mandani Zoram Mandani socialist candidate winning with nineteen points against
former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Mandani has forty four percent, Cuomo
has twenty five, Republican Curtis Leewa has twelve, and incumbent
Mayor Eric Adams has seven percent. Now, I don't know
(11:26):
why these four numbskulls are the candidates that we have
to lead the biggest city in America. I don't know
why Catherine Garcia didn't run. She would have. She's a Democrat,
I don't agree with all of our policies. She would
have actually been able to run the city. I fundamentally
believe she could run the city and make it function
and make sure we weren't falling into the abyss. She
(11:47):
wasn't a thirty three year old IVY list with no
job experience, or a disgraced former governor, or an insane
person who peaked in the eighties, or a disgraced outgoing mayor.
She was a competent woman. She's a Democrat and agree policies,
but she could have. I don't know why we're stuck
with this group. It's extremely frustrating when there were really
good candidates who could have run the race and done it.
(12:11):
All these candidates are flawed, every single one of them.
Only one has a path to beat Mondonnie, and it's
Andrew Cuomo. I know that it's not comfortable to say
I've never voted for Andrew Cuomo. I don't like Andrew Cuomo.
He was a horrible governor. Well it was okay, it's
like a few years of his first term, but after
that it just fell off the cliff. It was just horrific.
He handled COVID terribly. What I find from and this
(12:33):
is maybe a cynical view from a conservative Democrats oftentimes
I find in many of these blue states when they
are governors, are all about managing decline, managing the decline
of New York, which is really sad from somebody who
lived my entire life here and goes back to the state,
(12:54):
you know, eight generations. I think there was no vision
and optimism. It was about how to manage decline and
just you know, rearranged seats in the deck chair of
the Titanic. While our tax base fled and our industries fled,
and that was Andrew Cuomo. But he is the only
person who can beat Mandanni, which I would take managed
to climb over a catastrophe of a socialist. So what
(13:18):
should happen right now if there was a person with
a brain cell in Andrew Cuomo's entire team. Rather than
sending out insane tweets about his family lineage and who
he is and saying that Mandannie you know, is attacking him,
rend freeing his head or whatever he's saying on Twitter
to try to troll Mendanni, he should be meeting with
(13:39):
the county, the borough Republicans. There are five boroughs. Every
borough has a Republican party. There's a Republican elected official
in four of the five boroughs, and say what do
you want? He should be saying, there are six Republican
city council members at a fifty one he'll set. He
should sit there and say, you throw your support behind me.
I will not run any Democrats against all of your
(14:02):
incumbents in four years, and I will back two more.
I'll give you eight city councilors, which will be the
most of the Republicans in decades. I will tell the
unions to back off your incumbents in the city. Make
deals right now. Michael Bloomberg, for all of his ills,
when he was mayor, knew how to make deals, Make
deals with people, to bring everyone together, instead of allowing
(14:23):
Curtis lee While to destroy his legacy by running this
absolute garbage campaign and winning twelve percent and taking the
city down with his ego and his pride. And then
tell Eric Adams and his seven percent, I'll name a
bridge after you, I'll name a garden after you, a school,
whatever you want, will i will do the Eric Adams Library,
(14:47):
whatever you want. Don't do this. Drop out, throw your
support behind me. There's another gentleman in the race who's
getting like two percent. Drop out, throw your support behind me,
and let's have a shot at making sure this city
doesn't work. I'll no many of them as deputy mayors.
Whatever you want, like whatever it's going to take, and
(15:09):
make the deal because Curtis ly one. Erg Adams cannot
win right now. With any poll I have seen, they
are in the between mid to low teens. Eric Adams
is in the single digit numbers. It's just over at
that point. Their negatives are way too high and only
only only silver aligning in this poll. For anyone who
(15:29):
is not up. You know, Mandani's rear end is the
fact that about a quarter of New Yorkers twenty five
percent of New Yorkers do not know who he is.
They have no opinion of him. You have to understand.
I know you guys are listening to a political podcast,
and you probably spend a lot of time thinking listen
to podcasts. The average person doesn't like. The average person
doesn't vote, They don't know. They're going about their day
(15:53):
and they think about this, especially local races, for the
first time, maybe two weeks before election day. That's when
they're you know, they started saying, oh, there might be
an election a couple of weeks. Who's running. There is
an opportunity and a real opportunity. And I've heard that
this is going to happen to blanket the city with
millions of dollars in negative advertising against Mandanni and make
(16:15):
him as unlikable as everybody else. So then you're just
running a race of who's the most unlikable. Cuomo is
very unlikable, Sleeve was very unlikable, Eric Adams is comically corrupt.
Mandanni is a moronic socialist who's also inauthentic and incredibly unlikable.
He's just young enough to be handsome, which the ship
is sale with other ones. I mean, let's not lie.
(16:36):
So that is that if they do not unite at
this point or in the next month or so and
blanket the city with negative advertising about Mandanni and how
truly horrific he is, he'll be the next mayor of
New York and good luck to us. So that is
my rundown of all the politics. Republicans are slipping in
(16:57):
the generic ballad by about a point nationwide, having trouble
in some Senate states like North Carolina. In New Jersey,
Chitdarelli is down but not out, especially if there's a
polling error like there was last time. And in New
York it is getting pretty bleak. I know that's not
the happiest to come and tarry for you guys, but
(17:17):
I would rather tell you the truth than repeat things
you would like to hear. That's my pulling up date. Now.
Next is a story that should be getting more attention
about something that Trump administration is doing, but it hasn't,
So that is coming up next. Stay tuned. There was
a little blurb in The New York Times two weeks
ago that the new head of USCAS, that's the United
(17:40):
States Citizenship and Immigration Services, that their new head, Joseph Edlow,
is overhauling the citizenship test. Now. It didn't get a
lot of mention after that. It was like one sentence
and a bigger article about him, and there weren't many
follow up deep dives. And he finally started giving interviews
to some conservative outlets like Fox News and Brepbart News.
(18:02):
He said the test was too easy and he needs
to reflect the letter and the spirit in which Congress
intended when they pass citizenship law. Says it's not about
the questions aren't up to par. It's that there aren't
enough of them, and they people applying for citizenship don't
get a sense of who we are as a country. Now,
I know that you all have heard, and I have
heard it a million times, so I'm guessing you guys
(18:23):
at least heard one hundred that the average American cannot
pass this citizenship test. I know you've heard that because
I know I have heard that, and you hear about, Oh,
there's all these questions and it's very detailed. There are
between ninety to one hundred questions on the test, right,
only ten are actually asked. I don't know if everyone
(18:44):
understands this. So yes, you have to memorize one hundred
different answers, but only ten are given and you only
have to get six of those ten correctly to pass.
So access to a lifetime in the United States, the
ability to access our welfare state, our security state, our
(19:05):
you know, everything, are lower taxes than most parts of
the developed world. Everything, because you can answer six questions correctly.
Six lifetime, right to vote to cancel out my vote,
to cancel out your vote to cancel out Donald Trump's vote.
Six questions, six questions. And I'm sure if you're like
(19:29):
me and you have been around the general public, you
don't have much faith of the hours person is informed
enough to pass these questions. So for your entertainment and
you and if you've never looked at the test, I'm
going to take this test right now, right, I'm going
to read these ten This is on Americanhistory dot SI
(19:50):
dot edu. You can take the citizenship test yourself. It's
only ten questions, and I'm going to read you possibly
a question. You can tell me, how hard do you
think it is. First question, what was one promise you
make when you become a United States citizen? Ay, never
leave the US, be obey the laws, see offer housing
to soldiers or de pay taxes for traveling to other countries.
(20:15):
That is not a hard question that you don't even
have to study that. That's literally just logic. That's basic logic.
It's be obey the laws. Okay. Next, that is correct.
By the way, I didn't read these beforehand. This is
just me going off with it. What is one reason
colonialists came to the America slavery, political liberty, communism to
set up their own monarchy? Okay, it's a basic history question.
(20:36):
It's it's political liberty. I guess if you don't know
anything about history, that might be a difficult question of whatever.
So okay, Next one, what is one responsibility that is
only for United States citizens? Join a political party, write
for a newspaper, serve a jury, join the military. I mean,
could the average person really do they all think they
(20:56):
have to write for a newspaper. I don't. I don't
think that that's how I just I cannot imagine that
they would not get that correctly. Next question, what do
we show loyalty to when we pledge allegiance to the
United Nations, to the national anthem, to the United States,
or to the party of the current president. You have
(21:19):
to say that this is not like this is are
you smarter than a fifth grader? I don't think think
it's smarter than you a third grader? Like this is
not a This is for citizenship. This is to get
to vote in all of our elections. This is not
a hard thing. I don't believe people could possibly be
getting these things wrong. What groups of people were taken
(21:41):
to America and sold as slaves Australians, African, Chinese or Spaniards.
I think an alien would actually know this answer, because
we've talked about so often. It's Africans. What are the
two major political parties of the United States? The judicial
and executive checks and balances Democrats and Republicans, the Senate
and the House. If you got a question like this
(22:03):
wrong and you were not a citizen, you should have
to be ejected from the country. You should have to
sit in the last row of a jet blue flight
that has one of the windows blown out near the toilet.
If you possibly get questions like these wrong, what is
the capital of the United States. I'm not even going
(22:24):
to give you guys options, but this is for citizenship.
This is how easy it is to give this away. Literally,
what did the Declaration of Independence do? Start the first
free libraries, free the I'm not joking when I said
that was actually the answer. Start the first free libraries,
free the slaves. Define the government said the United States
(22:46):
is free. It's said the United States is free. That
wasn't I guess maybe you might have gotten the Constitution confused,
but it wasn't to set up libraries. How many senators
are there? There's one hundred. Okay, I'm done now with
the question. I got all of them correctly. I think
you get my point. This is the most important thing.
(23:09):
These are questions that I would argue the average third
grader could probably answer. Maybe I have too much faith
in the average third grader, but by fifth grade they
would all know this basic step. They've all been taught
it at least once. And if you're looking at the
itinerary of what we want from a person who is
(23:29):
newly added to our country, you would want someone better
than the average ten year old, not someone who is
on par with a ten year old and they may
be in their forties or fifties, like you would want
someone of advanced intelligence and understanding. Also, it doesn't tell
you who we really are as a country. It asked
you to memorize the several historical events and dates, which
(23:51):
I get some people can't do that well. I mean
I can, but a lot of people can't. The most
basic premise of our government, I mean the most basic
and a few dates or like you know, common sense questions.
It's it's a little little bit of civics, a tiny
bit of very basic history, and you get to vote
(24:12):
and change the course of our history, course of our
country because you can memorize how many stars and stripes
there are. I'm very glad that Edlow is doing this.
I think this couldn't have happened fast enough. And I
think that if we if the average adult cannot pass this,
cannot get six six. All they do is six. When
(24:34):
I went to high school, seventy five was failing. It's
not even meeting the Saint Francis Prep minimum of passing
at least up at nine. So I'm glad this new
citizenship test should be out sometime. I think in the
beginning of next year. I'm looking forward to seeing how
he hopes to enhance it to make sure that it
is more comprehensive towards who we are as a country.
(24:57):
I know he says he's planning on ending the loop
holes that allow people to take the test not in English,
which is beyond me that that's even possible. Anyway, we're
the greatest nation in the world. You shouldn't have to
play are you smarter than a fifth grade or civic
questions in order to be a citizen. It should be
a lot lot harder. You're listening to It's a Numbers
Game with Ryan Grodowsky. We'll be right back now. It's
(25:20):
time for the Ask Me Anything segment of the show.
If you want to be part of the Ask Me
Anything segment, email me Ryan at Numbers Game podcast dot com.
That's ryanat Numbers Game podcast dot com. Okay. First question
comes from Patrick. He writes that he has seen the
abuse of the H one B VISA system firsthand, and
it's frustrated that Republicans have drank the kool aid and
(25:40):
believing we're taking in the best and brightest. He wants
to know given comments by Senator Mike Lee, which if
anyone knows Senator Lee's history on H Oneb's it's been horrific,
but all of a sudden he's been talking of a
big game or Vice President Jade Vans. Are we going
to see this issue address as at two in each?
And also, what are your opinions of Senator Schmidt? Senator
(26:01):
Schmid is the senator from Missouri. I don't know much
about him. One of my friends works for him and
does the social media, and he's super based and very
very good. So I think that's why his social media
is very good. And I guess I like that he
hired him. I have to read. I've read up a
little bit on his legislative history, and there was only
one Bill of substance and it was dealing with broadband
(26:21):
spectrum when it comes to space travel. I didn't really
know what it was talking about. But I don't dislike him.
I don't particularly like him. I don't really think a
lot about him. He hasn't had a lot of really
enticing legislation that I really could sit there and say, Wow,
this is leadership and this is thought provoking. I think
that he's fine. He votes well, and he votes much
(26:42):
better than the Senator Blunt did who he replaced, but yeah,
I have a very basic opinion of him. When it
comes to H one bs and skilled immigration. Polling is
clear that Americans believe that we have a large skills
gap and that H one B system is the only
way to fix that problem. I couldn't find an exact
poll break down by party, but one pole I found
(27:03):
sid seventy one percent of Trump supporters believe that we
need more high skilled immigration to our country. I think
the problem is in both the wording of the polling
and our conception of immigration. Rather than thinking we need
more high skilled immigration, the question should be should all
immigrants be skilled? Right? Because once we weed out low
(27:25):
skilled immigration, that's unnecessary, the ones through family reunification and
the visa lottery system and all the rest of it.
And like ninety percent of our immigration is skilled, I
guess we could use some farm hands or some you know,
I don't know, people who clean hotels or whatever. But
if like eighty to ninety percent of our immigration was skilled,
then it's just a question on levels. Then it's just
a question of how many numbers were taking in. And
(27:48):
that is a better place to be in than the
overall idea of skilled versus not skilled immigration. I think
that when you're dealing with that kind of concept or oh,
people are naturally going to be on the side of
wanting more skilled immigration. But if almost all immigration is skilled,
then it's just a question of numbers, and people more
times than not prefer lower numbers and higher As far
(28:11):
as changes go, by the way, the White House did
to prove some changes to the H one B system,
including changing the way that H oneb's are distributed. This
comes from the Hindustan Times. And by the way, if
you care about this issue, because it sounds like you
do about the H one B issue, I highly recommend
reading English language versions of Indian newspapers because Indian newspapers,
(28:32):
because India loves, you know, flooding H one B systems,
H one B visas, they cover this issue like you know,
white girls covering true crime, like they are all over
this issue completely. So this is from the Hindustan Times.
The new rules anticipated to relaunch a Trump administration plan
that would prioritize H one B applicants based on earnings
(28:55):
rather than the existing random lottery system. At present, there's
an annual cap up eighty five thousand visas under the
H one B program, which is widely used by the
tech sector on annual basis, a random lottery selects which
employers may fill the visa requests. In twenty twenty one,
DHS recommended allocating visas based on earning, separated into four
(29:16):
categories to prioritize high paying positions. DHS attempted to switch
from a random selection procedure to a wage priority approach
under the Trump administration. Suggested regulation would put applicants based
on wag's promise, with higher paying positions given preference. According
to the administrations by American Higher American Program. So this
(29:37):
is something that's great. I think it's really really important.
I think it's necessary, and I think that it's just
I think the beginning of what we're going to see
changes to the H one B system. I think more
will actually come as time goes on. I know that
Trump has not been super coherent in his overall vision
of H one b's I know he's waffled the times,
he's gone very friendly with the tech sector, But it
(29:57):
seems to me that this is something that the overall
administration is wanting to weed out, especially the immense amount
of corruption. Okay. Next question comes from Joel in Ohio.
He has a long I've been Ohio so many times.
I should tell Ohiohio campaign stories over time because Ohio
is a special place. He has a long response to
(30:18):
my episode on the iPhone filtering unknown calls, which I
was great part of the email, but the question part,
because I don't want to give everyone too much to
chew on on. It was asking should people answer polls
when you get text mess from polls? Yes, Joel, please
if you get a poll answer it. My dad never
(30:40):
answers polls and then constantly complains about them, and I
say you have to be part of answering them and
not just saying how left wing poles are. Here's the
one of the basic problems with our polling industry. There
are a lot of people who watch MSNBC all day
long and dream of the mo A polster is going
(31:01):
to call them and ask them their opinion, so they
can scream that they hate Donald Trump to somebody who
has to listen. If they have the numbers, they would
call the polsters themselves and give them a daily update.
And then you have people like my dad, God love them,
Joel you know, you have to answer these polls. They're
not asking you for money nine times out of ten,
and it makes and if they answer, if they ask
(31:22):
for money, just hang up whatever, it's fine, hang up.
It's not a big deal if you it makes it
harder for people like me and people in who work
in government who want to see the feelings of the
public on a number of different issues when we don't
have accurate polsters pulling because the people who are overwhelmingly
responding to the polling are you know, writing letters to
(31:45):
MSBC saying please bring back joy read like that is
who are answering the polling too often? And we are
not getting people who are right wing or lower repensity
or no college degree, and like they're not sampling enough
of those people. So Joel, please please please answer the
pole if you get a text and if you're not
(32:06):
interested in any donations or anything like that, just eggs
out of it. But a pole should only take a
few minutes, and it's really important for how corporations, nonprofits, politicians,
everybody responds to things. So please Republicans answer polls. Okay.
Last question for this episode of the podcast comes from
David Rolf. He asked about my feelings of the Senate
(32:27):
races in Texas and Kentucky. In Texas, I think Senator
Cornyn is done. I don't think he's going to win
unless the establishment White Knight shows up and Qrnan agrees
to step down and they rally around him. I think
it's likely to Ken Paxton. I don't think Wesley Hunt
can do it. I think Paxson has this level of
(32:47):
built in trust with the average Conservative voter or the
average Trump voter, and they under they view him in
the same way they view Trump. They understand that he
is a deeply her sony, problematic figure as far as
his personal life goes right. They don't want to live
his personal life or don't want their children to live
(33:08):
in their person life. But they believe he is a fighter.
And America right now, Republicans right now are not looking
for They're not looking for a pastor. They're looking for
a man who will step up and fight, and they
view Paxton as that person. You know, I talked to
one Texas politician last year about Paxton. He said, Look,
(33:31):
he's a crook, but he's our crook. Like he's corrupt,
but he's our corrupt. Guy because he's going to fight,
and he sued the Biden administration. He sued the I
think he was there for Obama too, but he sued
the Biden administration endlessly to try to stall their agenda.
And he's just considered a champion for the base and
they're going to stick with them. They're going to ride
with them. And unless somebody comes in who is universally
(33:54):
beloved and Cornyn is no longer there, so the attacks
against corn because he's so bad on so many policies,
doesn't happen if he can't attack Cornyan. And there's this
universally loved white knight, which I don't know who that is,
but if that person shows up, it's going to be Paxton,
and then that will be a billion dollar center race
in Kentucky. I am biased because I have a lot
(34:14):
of friends who work for Nate Morris. He is the
businessman for Kentucky. I really like a lot of what
he says. I think he'd be a good senator based
on what I know. I do think he's probably the
favorite right now. I think Mark Alprin said the same thing.
There's a lot of JD. Vans for Senate alumni. Work
in his campaign right now. So if you're a real
campaign nerd, you could probably see some overlaps of the JD.
(34:36):
Vans campaign and Nate Morris's campaign and what they're kind
of doing. There's a lot of similarities I'm seeing. So
I like Nate Morris. I like him based on what
I know, and I think he's probably likely to win.
I wouldn't be shocked if you see Don Junior, Charlie Kirk,
the President, a bunch of go rally around him. I
think that the president, maybe the President will stay out
(34:57):
of it because I think he's got relationships with congres
some bar but I wouldn't be surprised that they all
rally around Morris in the end and he ends up
winning the nomination. I also want you to do one thing,
by the way, because this makes me laugh every time
I think about it. Take out your phone, we're here,
your computer, and I want you to google the name
Nate Morris, Kentucky and see what he looks like. And
(35:18):
then google stand from the show American Dad, from the
cartoon American Dad, and you tell me this is not
the same person. That's all for the show today. Thank you,
guys for listening. I'll be back on Monday. If you
like this podcast, please subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
wherever you get your podcasts, and I will see you
guys soon
Welcome back to a numbers game. Thank you all for
being here on this Thursday. I'm happy to be back
with you. I really hope you enjoyed the last episode
on Monday by Congressman Corey Mills. I may have an
update in the future. I know this isn't a gossip
podcast per se, even though my friends really want me
to do a gossip podcast, but this is not it.
(00:25):
When I have a big scoop like that, though that's
a little bit on the gospel side, I'm going to
share with you because otherwise a reporter's going to scoop it,
and you guys should get it first because you're my
loyal audience. I had a family reunion last week actually,
and one of my cousins who listens to the pod
said to me, I really like your show. There's a
little too much math in it, so episode I'm going
(00:47):
to try to break that up a little bit with
episodes that aren't so math intensive. And this episode is
both a little math intensive and has a narrative a
story to it that I think is important something that
the Trump administration is doing that people should know. So
I wanted to do a catch up episode on all
the data that has broken in the last week because
(01:09):
I've had a lot of guests, heavy episodes and more
thematic episodes. So this one is on the twenty twenty
six midterms, right. I want to talk about the generic
ballad because it's how will affect us in a nation
depending on who wins the midterms. So the congressional generic ballad,
which is overall how people are feeling in the country.
(01:30):
They don't talk about a specific race, but you know
who they are likely to support. It shows that Republicans
have slipped about a point or two in the last month.
The Real Clear Politics polling average shows it's a D
plus three five race. That means that the nation as
a whole is voting about three point five percent more
(01:50):
Democrat than Republican. Now, remember the twenty twenty four election
was an R plus two race, so that represents a
five point five percent swinging towards the Democrats from the
previous election. Also remember this, I need this to be
a very important covey when I say we're talking about polling.
Polling does not predict the future. Polling is a snapshot
(02:12):
of the present. Things can change, things will change, but
it's important to know where people are. The economy is
really not great for a lot of people. I know
a lot of people applying for jobs, first time jobs,
college rees and college grads with graduates who are smart,
people who are hardworking, and they cannot get an interview
for a job. They cannot find a job. It's rough.
(02:35):
Interest rates are still pretty high, not high compare like
the nineteen seventies, but they're high in general, and prices
are still high. We're still dealing with the overall ramifications
of printing too much money during President Biden's time in office.
All that's still there. And I think that people hope
for a magic wand that Trump would fix everything, and
it has not happened. So a D plus three zero
(03:00):
point five race is better for Republicans than the twenty
eighteen election, but it likely means it's very likely, means
they're going to lose the House representatives. The Senate is
still probably safe for a Republican. I mean, it would
be very difficult for Democrats to actually win the Senate
at this time. But DP plus three point five means
states like Michigan and Georgia, which are potential pick up
(03:22):
races for Republican It's very difficult. It becomes very difficult
in those states to sit there and see how they
win those states, and it also becomes really hard for
them to see how they hold North Carolina and potentially Maine.
I mean, Main's a weird state. So put that to
the side. Because Susan Collins is her own animal and
it's a unique set of circumstances. There hasn't been a
(03:44):
ton of recently high quality polling. If you look at
the results from the Fabrizio Lee Pole, which is published
in the Most Journal in April than July, it shows
about a one point shift towards Democrat. The Signal poll
also shows about a one point shift towards Democrat. In
the generic ballot Quantus Insight, which was a really good
pollster in twenty twenty four, they have a two point
swing towards Democrats. And the CMBC poll, not a high
(04:08):
quality poll, but it's worth mentioning has a three point
shift towards Democrats. Very few polls have had any kind
of shift towards Republican Atlas Intel did, but they're i mean,
they're saying it's going to be a Democratic landslide. So
it's one point doesn't mean anything. Emerson also has a
one point swing towards Republican, so not great news for
Republicans going into key swing states and key Senate races.
(04:30):
In the twenty twenty six elections. The Georgia Senate race
had a good poll for Republican congress from Mike Collins,
someone I know a little bit. I've spoken him a
few times. I think he's a really good guy. He's
got a lot of legislative accomplishments for somebody who hasn't
spent decades in office. He's only been there for I
think maybe four or six years. But it had him
(04:53):
only one point behind Democrat John Ossop in the state
of Georgia. Allins can win the sea, but he's gone
going to need the national environment to improve, not I
would say significantly. It's gonna have to improve for him
to win the seat, maybe by one point five to
two points in order him to win the seat. Otherwise
they're going to blame Republicans, the people of the votable,
(05:13):
blame Republicans for everything bad, and it will take him
down like everybody else. In North Carolina, an Emerson pole
found that former Governor Roy Cooper has a six point
lead over R and C chairman Michael Wattley. This is
I believe Wattley's first time ever running for office. Cooper
is a great recruit for Democrat. He was a popular
(05:34):
governor in a purple state. Who is young enough that
I mean he's not young he's like sixty eight, but
I mean, I guess in the Senate he's young enough.
He's young enough. Just seems like he's not tainted by
politics because he's only ever run for state positions. He's
not tainted by DC politics in this poll. And I'll
admitted it's an early poll because his election is not
until November of twenty twenty six. Cooper has a benefit
(05:57):
of winning more Republicans than Wattley does Democrat, and Cooper
is crushing it with independence right now. Even though North
Carolina hasn't elected a Democrat to the sentences two thousand
and eight, that doesn't mean that they can't win this year.
I remember Roy Cooper has never lost an election statewide
in North Carolina, and I was looking it up in
(06:17):
twenty twelve when he was running for Attorney general. I
think for the re elect Republicans didn't even put forward
a challenger, and that was the year that Romney won
North Carolina, he almost lost the governor's race in twenty
sixteen as well. And had any of those races gone
the other way, or had they even pit up a challenger,
I don't know why he was running unopposed for a
(06:39):
state wide office. At least, you know, throw Joe Schmo
up there and hope for a miracle, because once in
a while it does happen. They just let him, you know,
have an easy, one hundred per easy ride victory. He also,
I mean in the twenty sixteen governor's race, he would
have lost had the Libertarians not run a candidate. The
Libertarian can for Governor got two percent of the vote
(07:02):
in it, and he Roy Cooper only won by eleven
thousand votes. So another case of a third party candidate
really ruined it for Republicans. It will be a tough
seat to hold. It's not impossible, but it's going to
be a tough seat because Roy Cooper is probably the
top recreit they could have gotten for this election cycle. Now,
there is an election this year that I want to
(07:23):
talk about too. Elections actually won the New Jersey Governor's race.
There was a poll from stem site Research. It's a
new research company, but it's from the Polsters of Monmouth,
which are very well respected polsters in the state. I
honestly think that they get things really way too off
to get as much respect as they do. But they
(07:45):
have a long history of getting things right. But they've
had a couple of doozies, and when they I meanies,
when I mean doozies, I mean doozies in polling, but
before that decades of correct polling. So they find that
Democrat Mickey Cheryl leading Republican Jack Chitdarelli by six points
forty eight to forty two in the Garden State. That
(08:06):
doesn't seem great, but remember four years ago Chitterarelli was
down in the same in the Mammoth Pole, the same
people who did this poll by sixteen points against incumbent
Governor Phil Murphy, and that race wasn't even considered close,
it wasn't considered worth paying attention to. Chitarelli is the
underdog in this fight, but it is not the same
(08:27):
state that it was four years ago. I think people
need to remember that as we're heading towards these very
important governor elections, like including in Pennsylvania, a top recruit
announced they're running against Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania. I think
it's important to remember that it's not the same state.
Right in Pennsylvania, the Democratic advantage in voter enrollment is
(08:52):
five hundred thousand fewer than it was three years ago
the first time he ran. When he ran in twenty
twenty two, when Oshapi ran for governor, Democrats had five
hundred There was five hundred and sixty thousand more registered
Democrats than Republicans. As of now, and we are still
eighteen months from the election, there were only sixty thousand
(09:13):
more Democrats than Republicans. Once again, super popular governor probably
going to win, has the advantage, but there's a lot less,
you know, meet on the bones for the Democratic base.
The same is true in New Jersey. In November twenty
twenty one, Democrats had one million, seventy thousand more registered
(09:34):
Democrats than Republicans. Bill Murphy always had that advantage of
over a million registered voters. Since then, in the four
years since that election, there are forty thousand fewer Democrats
and one hundred and sixty thousand more Republicans. So and
that was a race that Murphy won by eighty four
thousand votes, and the Republican advantage has increased by two
(09:56):
hundred thousand in that four year period. So if there's
any kind of polling error like there was four years ago,
Chittarelli was supposed to lose by like eight points, and
I think he lost by two and a half. If
any kind of polling error exists this time, like it
did last time, and like it has done in several
other elections. But if that polling error exists of five
(10:18):
to six points, that new voter enrollment advantage in New
Jersey of two hundred thousand, one hundred and sixty thousand
more Republicans forty thousand fewer Democrats means Chitarelly has a chance.
You know, he's not in the lead. It's not a
super tight race right now, but he's the underdog. But
(10:39):
he has a chance. The election is not over in
New Jersey, New York City, the mayor's election in my
home city. This one hurts because it's basically over. It is.
If there was anyone in political leadership in this godforsaken
city with two brain cells of scratched together and start
a fire, we could have a chance. A new Siena poll,
(11:02):
which only had a sample survey of three hundred, so
it's not a very high sample survey, but it has
Mandani Zoram Mandani socialist candidate winning with nineteen points against
former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Mandani has forty four percent, Cuomo
has twenty five, Republican Curtis Leewa has twelve, and incumbent
Mayor Eric Adams has seven percent. Now, I don't know
(11:26):
why these four numbskulls are the candidates that we have
to lead the biggest city in America. I don't know
why Catherine Garcia didn't run. She would have. She's a Democrat,
I don't agree with all of our policies. She would
have actually been able to run the city. I fundamentally
believe she could run the city and make it function
and make sure we weren't falling into the abyss. She
(11:47):
wasn't a thirty three year old IVY list with no
job experience, or a disgraced former governor, or an insane
person who peaked in the eighties, or a disgraced outgoing mayor.
She was a competent woman. She's a Democrat and agree policies,
but she could have. I don't know why we're stuck
with this group. It's extremely frustrating when there were really
good candidates who could have run the race and done it.
(12:11):
All these candidates are flawed, every single one of them.
Only one has a path to beat Mondonnie, and it's
Andrew Cuomo. I know that it's not comfortable to say
I've never voted for Andrew Cuomo. I don't like Andrew Cuomo.
He was a horrible governor. Well it was okay, it's
like a few years of his first term, but after
that it just fell off the cliff. It was just horrific.
He handled COVID terribly. What I find from and this
(12:33):
is maybe a cynical view from a conservative Democrats oftentimes
I find in many of these blue states when they
are governors, are all about managing decline, managing the decline
of New York, which is really sad from somebody who
lived my entire life here and goes back to the state,
(12:54):
you know, eight generations. I think there was no vision
and optimism. It was about how to manage decline and
just you know, rearranged seats in the deck chair of
the Titanic. While our tax base fled and our industries fled,
and that was Andrew Cuomo. But he is the only
person who can beat Mandanni, which I would take managed
to climb over a catastrophe of a socialist. So what
(13:18):
should happen right now if there was a person with
a brain cell in Andrew Cuomo's entire team. Rather than
sending out insane tweets about his family lineage and who
he is and saying that Mandannie you know, is attacking him,
rend freeing his head or whatever he's saying on Twitter
to try to troll Mendanni, he should be meeting with
(13:39):
the county, the borough Republicans. There are five boroughs. Every
borough has a Republican party. There's a Republican elected official
in four of the five boroughs, and say what do
you want? He should be saying, there are six Republican
city council members at a fifty one he'll set. He
should sit there and say, you throw your support behind me.
I will not run any Democrats against all of your
(14:02):
incumbents in four years, and I will back two more.
I'll give you eight city councilors, which will be the
most of the Republicans in decades. I will tell the
unions to back off your incumbents in the city. Make
deals right now. Michael Bloomberg, for all of his ills,
when he was mayor, knew how to make deals, Make
deals with people, to bring everyone together, instead of allowing
(14:23):
Curtis lee While to destroy his legacy by running this
absolute garbage campaign and winning twelve percent and taking the
city down with his ego and his pride. And then
tell Eric Adams and his seven percent, I'll name a
bridge after you, I'll name a garden after you, a school,
whatever you want, will i will do the Eric Adams Library,
(14:47):
whatever you want. Don't do this. Drop out, throw your
support behind me. There's another gentleman in the race who's
getting like two percent. Drop out, throw your support behind me,
and let's have a shot at making sure this city
doesn't work. I'll no many of them as deputy mayors.
Whatever you want, like whatever it's going to take, and
(15:09):
make the deal because Curtis ly one. Erg Adams cannot
win right now. With any poll I have seen, they
are in the between mid to low teens. Eric Adams
is in the single digit numbers. It's just over at
that point. Their negatives are way too high and only
only only silver aligning in this poll. For anyone who
(15:29):
is not up. You know, Mandani's rear end is the
fact that about a quarter of New Yorkers twenty five
percent of New Yorkers do not know who he is.
They have no opinion of him. You have to understand.
I know you guys are listening to a political podcast,
and you probably spend a lot of time thinking listen
to podcasts. The average person doesn't like. The average person
doesn't vote, They don't know. They're going about their day
(15:53):
and they think about this, especially local races, for the
first time, maybe two weeks before election day. That's when
they're you know, they started saying, oh, there might be
an election a couple of weeks. Who's running. There is
an opportunity and a real opportunity. And I've heard that
this is going to happen to blanket the city with
millions of dollars in negative advertising against Mandanni and make
(16:15):
him as unlikable as everybody else. So then you're just
running a race of who's the most unlikable. Cuomo is
very unlikable, Sleeve was very unlikable, Eric Adams is comically corrupt.
Mandanni is a moronic socialist who's also inauthentic and incredibly unlikable.
He's just young enough to be handsome, which the ship
is sale with other ones. I mean, let's not lie.
(16:36):
So that is that if they do not unite at
this point or in the next month or so and
blanket the city with negative advertising about Mandanni and how
truly horrific he is, he'll be the next mayor of
New York and good luck to us. So that is
my rundown of all the politics. Republicans are slipping in
(16:57):
the generic ballad by about a point nationwide, having trouble
in some Senate states like North Carolina. In New Jersey,
Chitdarelli is down but not out, especially if there's a
polling error like there was last time. And in New
York it is getting pretty bleak. I know that's not
the happiest to come and tarry for you guys, but
(17:17):
I would rather tell you the truth than repeat things
you would like to hear. That's my pulling up date. Now.
Next is a story that should be getting more attention
about something that Trump administration is doing, but it hasn't,
So that is coming up next. Stay tuned. There was
a little blurb in The New York Times two weeks
ago that the new head of USCAS, that's the United
(17:40):
States Citizenship and Immigration Services, that their new head, Joseph Edlow,
is overhauling the citizenship test. Now. It didn't get a
lot of mention after that. It was like one sentence
and a bigger article about him, and there weren't many
follow up deep dives. And he finally started giving interviews
to some conservative outlets like Fox News and Brepbart News.
(18:02):
He said the test was too easy and he needs
to reflect the letter and the spirit in which Congress
intended when they pass citizenship law. Says it's not about
the questions aren't up to par. It's that there aren't
enough of them, and they people applying for citizenship don't
get a sense of who we are as a country. Now,
I know that you all have heard, and I have
heard it a million times, so I'm guessing you guys
(18:23):
at least heard one hundred that the average American cannot
pass this citizenship test. I know you've heard that because
I know I have heard that, and you hear about, Oh,
there's all these questions and it's very detailed. There are
between ninety to one hundred questions on the test, right,
only ten are actually asked. I don't know if everyone
(18:44):
understands this. So yes, you have to memorize one hundred
different answers, but only ten are given and you only
have to get six of those ten correctly to pass.
So access to a lifetime in the United States, the
ability to access our welfare state, our security state, our
(19:05):
you know, everything, are lower taxes than most parts of
the developed world. Everything, because you can answer six questions correctly.
Six lifetime, right to vote to cancel out my vote,
to cancel out your vote to cancel out Donald Trump's vote.
Six questions, six questions. And I'm sure if you're like
(19:29):
me and you have been around the general public, you
don't have much faith of the hours person is informed
enough to pass these questions. So for your entertainment and
you and if you've never looked at the test, I'm
going to take this test right now, right, I'm going
to read these ten This is on Americanhistory dot SI
(19:50):
dot edu. You can take the citizenship test yourself. It's
only ten questions, and I'm going to read you possibly
a question. You can tell me, how hard do you
think it is. First question, what was one promise you
make when you become a United States citizen? Ay, never
leave the US, be obey the laws, see offer housing
to soldiers or de pay taxes for traveling to other countries.
(20:15):
That is not a hard question that you don't even
have to study that. That's literally just logic. That's basic logic.
It's be obey the laws. Okay. Next, that is correct.
By the way, I didn't read these beforehand. This is
just me going off with it. What is one reason
colonialists came to the America slavery, political liberty, communism to
set up their own monarchy? Okay, it's a basic history question.
(20:36):
It's it's political liberty. I guess if you don't know
anything about history, that might be a difficult question of whatever.
So okay, Next one, what is one responsibility that is
only for United States citizens? Join a political party, write
for a newspaper, serve a jury, join the military. I mean,
could the average person really do they all think they
(20:56):
have to write for a newspaper. I don't. I don't
think that that's how I just I cannot imagine that
they would not get that correctly. Next question, what do
we show loyalty to when we pledge allegiance to the
United Nations, to the national anthem, to the United States,
or to the party of the current president. You have
(21:19):
to say that this is not like this is are
you smarter than a fifth grader? I don't think think
it's smarter than you a third grader? Like this is
not a This is for citizenship. This is to get
to vote in all of our elections. This is not
a hard thing. I don't believe people could possibly be
getting these things wrong. What groups of people were taken
(21:41):
to America and sold as slaves Australians, African, Chinese or Spaniards.
I think an alien would actually know this answer, because
we've talked about so often. It's Africans. What are the
two major political parties of the United States? The judicial
and executive checks and balances Democrats and Republicans, the Senate
and the House. If you got a question like this
(22:03):
wrong and you were not a citizen, you should have
to be ejected from the country. You should have to
sit in the last row of a jet blue flight
that has one of the windows blown out near the toilet.
If you possibly get questions like these wrong, what is
the capital of the United States. I'm not even going
(22:24):
to give you guys options, but this is for citizenship.
This is how easy it is to give this away. Literally,
what did the Declaration of Independence do? Start the first
free libraries, free the I'm not joking when I said
that was actually the answer. Start the first free libraries,
free the slaves. Define the government said the United States
(22:46):
is free. It's said the United States is free. That
wasn't I guess maybe you might have gotten the Constitution confused,
but it wasn't to set up libraries. How many senators
are there? There's one hundred. Okay, I'm done now with
the question. I got all of them correctly. I think
you get my point. This is the most important thing.
(23:09):
These are questions that I would argue the average third
grader could probably answer. Maybe I have too much faith
in the average third grader, but by fifth grade they
would all know this basic step. They've all been taught
it at least once. And if you're looking at the
itinerary of what we want from a person who is
(23:29):
newly added to our country, you would want someone better
than the average ten year old, not someone who is
on par with a ten year old and they may
be in their forties or fifties, like you would want
someone of advanced intelligence and understanding. Also, it doesn't tell
you who we really are as a country. It asked
you to memorize the several historical events and dates, which
(23:51):
I get some people can't do that well. I mean
I can, but a lot of people can't. The most
basic premise of our government, I mean the most basic
and a few dates or like you know, common sense questions.
It's it's a little little bit of civics, a tiny
bit of very basic history, and you get to vote
(24:12):
and change the course of our history, course of our
country because you can memorize how many stars and stripes
there are. I'm very glad that Edlow is doing this.
I think this couldn't have happened fast enough. And I
think that if we if the average adult cannot pass this,
cannot get six six. All they do is six. When
(24:34):
I went to high school, seventy five was failing. It's
not even meeting the Saint Francis Prep minimum of passing
at least up at nine. So I'm glad this new
citizenship test should be out sometime. I think in the
beginning of next year. I'm looking forward to seeing how
he hopes to enhance it to make sure that it
is more comprehensive towards who we are as a country.
(24:57):
I know he says he's planning on ending the loop
holes that allow people to take the test not in English,
which is beyond me that that's even possible. Anyway, we're
the greatest nation in the world. You shouldn't have to
play are you smarter than a fifth grade or civic
questions in order to be a citizen. It should be
a lot lot harder. You're listening to It's a Numbers
Game with Ryan Grodowsky. We'll be right back now. It's
(25:20):
time for the Ask Me Anything segment of the show.
If you want to be part of the Ask Me
Anything segment, email me Ryan at Numbers Game podcast dot com.
That's ryanat Numbers Game podcast dot com. Okay. First question
comes from Patrick. He writes that he has seen the
abuse of the H one B VISA system firsthand, and
it's frustrated that Republicans have drank the kool aid and
(25:40):
believing we're taking in the best and brightest. He wants
to know given comments by Senator Mike Lee, which if
anyone knows Senator Lee's history on H Oneb's it's been horrific,
but all of a sudden he's been talking of a
big game or Vice President Jade Vans. Are we going
to see this issue address as at two in each?
And also, what are your opinions of Senator Schmidt? Senator
(26:01):
Schmid is the senator from Missouri. I don't know much
about him. One of my friends works for him and
does the social media, and he's super based and very
very good. So I think that's why his social media
is very good. And I guess I like that he
hired him. I have to read. I've read up a
little bit on his legislative history, and there was only
one Bill of substance and it was dealing with broadband
(26:21):
spectrum when it comes to space travel. I didn't really
know what it was talking about. But I don't dislike him.
I don't particularly like him. I don't really think a
lot about him. He hasn't had a lot of really
enticing legislation that I really could sit there and say, Wow,
this is leadership and this is thought provoking. I think
that he's fine. He votes well, and he votes much
(26:42):
better than the Senator Blunt did who he replaced, but yeah,
I have a very basic opinion of him. When it
comes to H one bs and skilled immigration. Polling is
clear that Americans believe that we have a large skills
gap and that H one B system is the only
way to fix that problem. I couldn't find an exact
poll break down by party, but one pole I found
(27:03):
sid seventy one percent of Trump supporters believe that we
need more high skilled immigration to our country. I think
the problem is in both the wording of the polling
and our conception of immigration. Rather than thinking we need
more high skilled immigration, the question should be should all
immigrants be skilled? Right? Because once we weed out low
(27:25):
skilled immigration, that's unnecessary, the ones through family reunification and
the visa lottery system and all the rest of it.
And like ninety percent of our immigration is skilled, I
guess we could use some farm hands or some you know,
I don't know, people who clean hotels or whatever. But
if like eighty to ninety percent of our immigration was skilled,
then it's just a question on levels. Then it's just
a question of how many numbers were taking in. And
(27:48):
that is a better place to be in than the
overall idea of skilled versus not skilled immigration. I think
that when you're dealing with that kind of concept or oh,
people are naturally going to be on the side of
wanting more skilled immigration. But if almost all immigration is skilled,
then it's just a question of numbers, and people more
times than not prefer lower numbers and higher As far
(28:11):
as changes go, by the way, the White House did
to prove some changes to the H one B system,
including changing the way that H oneb's are distributed. This
comes from the Hindustan Times. And by the way, if
you care about this issue, because it sounds like you
do about the H one B issue, I highly recommend
reading English language versions of Indian newspapers because Indian newspapers,
(28:32):
because India loves, you know, flooding H one B systems,
H one B visas, they cover this issue like you know,
white girls covering true crime, like they are all over
this issue completely. So this is from the Hindustan Times.
The new rules anticipated to relaunch a Trump administration plan
that would prioritize H one B applicants based on earnings
(28:55):
rather than the existing random lottery system. At present, there's
an annual cap up eighty five thousand visas under the
H one B program, which is widely used by the
tech sector on annual basis, a random lottery selects which
employers may fill the visa requests. In twenty twenty one,
DHS recommended allocating visas based on earning, separated into four
(29:16):
categories to prioritize high paying positions. DHS attempted to switch
from a random selection procedure to a wage priority approach
under the Trump administration. Suggested regulation would put applicants based
on wag's promise, with higher paying positions given preference. According
to the administrations by American Higher American Program. So this
(29:37):
is something that's great. I think it's really really important.
I think it's necessary, and I think that it's just
I think the beginning of what we're going to see
changes to the H one B system. I think more
will actually come as time goes on. I know that
Trump has not been super coherent in his overall vision
of H one b's I know he's waffled the times,
he's gone very friendly with the tech sector, But it
(29:57):
seems to me that this is something that the overall
administration is wanting to weed out, especially the immense amount
of corruption. Okay. Next question comes from Joel in Ohio.
He has a long I've been Ohio so many times.
I should tell Ohiohio campaign stories over time because Ohio
is a special place. He has a long response to
(30:18):
my episode on the iPhone filtering unknown calls, which I
was great part of the email, but the question part,
because I don't want to give everyone too much to
chew on on. It was asking should people answer polls
when you get text mess from polls? Yes, Joel, please
if you get a poll answer it. My dad never
(30:40):
answers polls and then constantly complains about them, and I
say you have to be part of answering them and
not just saying how left wing poles are. Here's the
one of the basic problems with our polling industry. There
are a lot of people who watch MSNBC all day
long and dream of the mo A polster is going
(31:01):
to call them and ask them their opinion, so they
can scream that they hate Donald Trump to somebody who
has to listen. If they have the numbers, they would
call the polsters themselves and give them a daily update.
And then you have people like my dad, God love them,
Joel you know, you have to answer these polls. They're
not asking you for money nine times out of ten,
and it makes and if they answer, if they ask
(31:22):
for money, just hang up whatever, it's fine, hang up.
It's not a big deal if you it makes it
harder for people like me and people in who work
in government who want to see the feelings of the
public on a number of different issues when we don't
have accurate polsters pulling because the people who are overwhelmingly
responding to the polling are you know, writing letters to
(31:45):
MSBC saying please bring back joy read like that is
who are answering the polling too often? And we are
not getting people who are right wing or lower repensity
or no college degree, and like they're not sampling enough
of those people. So Joel, please please please answer the
pole if you get a text and if you're not
(32:06):
interested in any donations or anything like that, just eggs
out of it. But a pole should only take a
few minutes, and it's really important for how corporations, nonprofits, politicians,
everybody responds to things. So please Republicans answer polls. Okay.
Last question for this episode of the podcast comes from
David Rolf. He asked about my feelings of the Senate
(32:27):
races in Texas and Kentucky. In Texas, I think Senator
Cornyn is done. I don't think he's going to win
unless the establishment White Knight shows up and Qrnan agrees
to step down and they rally around him. I think
it's likely to Ken Paxton. I don't think Wesley Hunt
can do it. I think Paxson has this level of
(32:47):
built in trust with the average Conservative voter or the
average Trump voter, and they under they view him in
the same way they view Trump. They understand that he
is a deeply her sony, problematic figure as far as
his personal life goes right. They don't want to live
his personal life or don't want their children to live
(33:08):
in their person life. But they believe he is a fighter.
And America right now, Republicans right now are not looking
for They're not looking for a pastor. They're looking for
a man who will step up and fight, and they
view Paxton as that person. You know, I talked to
one Texas politician last year about Paxton. He said, Look,
(33:31):
he's a crook, but he's our crook. Like he's corrupt,
but he's our corrupt. Guy because he's going to fight,
and he sued the Biden administration. He sued the I
think he was there for Obama too, but he sued
the Biden administration endlessly to try to stall their agenda.
And he's just considered a champion for the base and
they're going to stick with them. They're going to ride
with them. And unless somebody comes in who is universally
(33:54):
beloved and Cornyn is no longer there, so the attacks
against corn because he's so bad on so many policies,
doesn't happen if he can't attack Cornyan. And there's this
universally loved white knight, which I don't know who that is,
but if that person shows up, it's going to be Paxton,
and then that will be a billion dollar center race
in Kentucky. I am biased because I have a lot
(34:14):
of friends who work for Nate Morris. He is the
businessman for Kentucky. I really like a lot of what
he says. I think he'd be a good senator based
on what I know. I do think he's probably the
favorite right now. I think Mark Alprin said the same thing.
There's a lot of JD. Vans for Senate alumni. Work
in his campaign right now. So if you're a real
campaign nerd, you could probably see some overlaps of the JD.
(34:36):
Vans campaign and Nate Morris's campaign and what they're kind
of doing. There's a lot of similarities I'm seeing. So
I like Nate Morris. I like him based on what
I know, and I think he's probably likely to win.
I wouldn't be shocked if you see Don Junior, Charlie Kirk,
the President, a bunch of go rally around him. I
think that the president, maybe the President will stay out
(34:57):
of it because I think he's got relationships with congres
some bar but I wouldn't be surprised that they all
rally around Morris in the end and he ends up
winning the nomination. I also want you to do one thing,
by the way, because this makes me laugh every time
I think about it. Take out your phone, we're here,
your computer, and I want you to google the name
Nate Morris, Kentucky and see what he looks like. And
(35:18):
then google stand from the show American Dad, from the
cartoon American Dad, and you tell me this is not
the same person. That's all for the show today. Thank you,
guys for listening. I'll be back on Monday. If you
like this podcast, please subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
wherever you get your podcasts, and I will see you
guys soon
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