April 28, 2025 • 44 mins
In this episode, Ryan and Marc Caputo discuss the first 100 days of Trump's presidency, focusing on key issues such as immigration, tariffs, and the political landscape. They analyze the successes and failures of Trump's policies, the impact on the Republican party, and how these factors may influence future elections. It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Girdusky is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Monday & Thursday.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Grudowski. Thank
you for being here for another week. Very excited. This
is a jam packed week with news. You have the
Pope's funeral over the weekend, the Canadian federal election today.
My birthday is tomorrow, if he wants to shout that out.
And Trump's one hundredth day in office is on Wednesday.
So a very busy week, a very exciting week to do,
(00:24):
and I want to talk to you about the pinnacle
of Wednesday. About Trump's first one hundred days in office.
Technically it's his second one hundred first days in office
because it's, you know, the first non consecutive presidence in
scuover Cleveland. I don't know what you call it, but
that's what it is. Going into his second term, many
in the media expected Trump to be a lame duck
president that they couldn't do very much because he only
(00:46):
had one term to serve unless they change the constitution
and he can run for a third term, which I'm
going to guess is unlikely. So here are some numbers
behind Trump's second one hundred days. He has so far
issued one hundred and thirty seven executive order, a record
breaking number, signed five billion to law and stated that
he would put tariffs of over eleven percent on fifty
seven countries. Now always passed relatively few laws, Joe Biden
(01:11):
and Georgie of b Bush signed seven during their first
one hundred days. Barack Obama signed eleven bill Clinton had
twenty one, and actually Trump's in his first terms first
first one hundred days signed the most, a twenty four
according to the UK and Dependent. I think when you
look down and you boil downs for Trump's first one
hundred days of his second term, you come down to
(01:31):
three big issues. The three issues that have defined these
last one hundred days defined it, especially in the eyes of
the media. They are DOGE, immigration and trade. So let's
start with DOGE. At the behest of the president, Elon
Musk began working to slash spending and make the federal
government more efficient. He announced the last week. Elon Musk
announced last week rather that he's going to step away
(01:53):
slightly from the role as I guess he's not head
of DOGE but overseeing consulting DOGE, but the team he's
created it will still be in charge of the federal
agency's dog is set to sunset on July fourth, twenty
twenty six. So I guess for the next fourteen months
they'll continue. Now, while the group received a lot of
praise from conservatives who cheered that he's going to end
(02:14):
and he's ended contracts and useless federal agencies and programs
like USAID because he gutted that one, musk has claimed
that dog has saved taxpayers one hundred and fifty billion dollars.
That's a lot of money. Heck, I think when you've
deficits this high, anything in the billions as far as
cutting is a lot of money. But the one hundred
(02:35):
and fifty billion dollar claim is just fifteen percent of
what Trump promised. When it comes to waste for ant abuse,
I remember he originally promised two trillion dollars in cuts,
and then when he president came into office, it was
one trillion. Now it's got to me it was one
hundred and fifty billion. When the New York Times looked
at the numbers, it gets a little murkier. According to
the New York Times, sixty percent or ninety two point
(02:56):
two billion of that one hundred and fifty billion dollars
came from uniemized savings things that are very hard to prove.
The savings that are easy to prove, that they can
justifiably prove is thirty two point five billion in itemized grants,
twenty four point eight billion in itemized contracts, and three
hundred and ninety seven million in itemized leases. Basically empty
(03:18):
offices of the building that the government was wasting money
on it empty offices and buildings across DC. So from
what we can itemize from savings, dough just save tax
payers that we know of. Definitely that we know of
fifty eight billion dollars. Now that's not nothing. I believed
in order to balance a budget, you need to cut
anywhere you possibly can. I'm all for cutting wasteful spending
and to do whatever they can. And it's important for
(03:40):
Trump because he needs to sit there in quote unquote
pay for tax cuts. He needs to sit there and
try to balance the budget. It's part of his campaign
from US. But DOGE as a whole came with a
lot of attacks on both Trump and Elon Musk. Elon
Musk's negative numbers have increased substantially during his time at DOGE,
and we saw a series of lawsuits over whether who
we could fire, what contracts he could end, and what
(04:01):
happened to any sensitive federal data he access was the
apple worth the bite. I guess we'll see, but Doge
hasn't seen the level of spending cuts that they hoped for.
But I guess stories on Doge seem so thirty days
ago in this administration. The current crisis the media is
really obsessing over is Trump's handling of mass deportations. So
let's get some numbers on that. The numbers of illegal
(04:23):
aliens who were apprehended our southern border in both February
and March of twenty twenty five were twenty two thousand,
seven hundred and twenty six. That's according to the Border Patrol.
Those are both during months that Trump was fully president,
so he was fully in charged. Twenty two thousand, seven
hundred and twenty six aliens apprehended at the border, with
(04:44):
very very very few being released. In the year prior
February and March twenty twenty four, when Biden was still president,
seventy two illegal aliens came to our southern border, with
many being released into the interior of the United States.
So just by enforcement the law already in the books,
but Trump did not get any new laws. When it
comes to the border, you just use the laws that
are currently on the books. President Trump has saw a
(05:06):
ninety four percent reduction of border crossings over a one
year period. It is truly remarkable. He proved we did
not need new laws, We just needed a president and
political will power to s that they're enforced the current laws. Now,
we signed a number of executive orders on I leege immigration,
most notably ending birthright citizenship for illegal aliens and temporary
(05:27):
visa holders, DNA testing of illegal aliens to say third
country agreements remain in Mexico, ending catcher release holding refugee resettlement,
canceling Joe Biden's absolutely ridiculous CHNV program, which would have
protected migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela from being
deported while they applied for asylum, and he used the
(05:48):
Alien Enemies Act to deport gang members and send them
to a maximum security prison in Al Salvador. Now, most
of these executive orders are tied up in litigation with
district court judges giving an unprecedented amount of nationwide injunctions,
more than any president in history, and I believe actually
almost as many if not more than all the nationwide
injunctions among every president in history combined. Very few have
(06:11):
made their way up to the Supreme Court so far.
Some are slowly making their way. The executive order over birthright,
citizenship or arguments begin or in mid May, so we'll
have to wait and see. We'll see how many of
these executive orders are given the green light by SCOTUS,
how President Trump handles the decision, how he continues to
execute his executive authority. Definitely, Stephen Miller has shown that
(06:35):
he's committed to the project of mass deportation, which Trump
promised during the campaign, and he's using every available law
at his disposal.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Now.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
While it's difficult to get an exact reading of how
many illegal aliens currently are in the country, that in
the country that we're currently deported, these are called removals
by ICE. As of March nineteenth, which is the last
available day that they gave a hard number, they're supposed
to be another one in the next few days as
of this recording, but President Trump removed twenty eight thousand
(07:04):
illegal aliens from the interior of the United States from
his time in office on January twentieth until March nineteenth.
Here's where the data gets tricky. Donald Trump is outpacing
Joe Biden when it comes to removals people that are
in the country that he is arresting with ICE and
deporting that are leaving the country. But the media can
categorize it and has categorized it by saying that actually
(07:26):
he lacks Biden because but ICE also is responsible for
removing illegal aliens detained at the border. Well, as I
said before, Trump's law enforcing the laws on the books
has caused border crossings to drop by ninety four percent,
so there are fewer illegal aliens to remove crossing the
border to begin with. You could make the argument that
(07:49):
Biden deported more people. It's a argument not based completely
in truth. It's an argument used to push a narrative.
But I mean, there's there are some facts into it.
But when you really have to look is interior deportations.
Interior deportations, and when it comes to interior deportations, Trump
is absolutely outpacing Joe Biden. In the first seven weeks,
(08:13):
ICE also arrested forty eight thousand illegal aliens living in
the interior of the United States and put them into
tention centers that is a thirty percent increase compared to
the year prior. So no matter what the media says,
interior deportations interior enforcement under President Trump are up compared
to his predecessor. And lastly, let's talk about trade. Just
(08:34):
a few weeks ago, President Trump announced that it was
Liberation Day from the Rose Garden and that he announced
tariffs on dozens of countries as well as a blanket
ten percent tariff on all products entering the United States.
And to say it went less well than expected as
an understatement. Now, of all the issues Trump has campaigned
on over the last decade, nothing means more to him
than trade and balances and the trade deficit. He has
(08:56):
spoken about this going back to before I was born.
I mean, he's talked about this for decades, that he
wants to rebalance how we do trade. So here he is,
during his second term, doing exactly what he's always wanted
to do. Ten percent tariff on all important goods, increased
tariffs on some countries that have tariffs on American goods
they're called retaliatory tariffs. And at one hundred and forty
(09:17):
five percent tariff on all goods from China. I've talked
a lot on this podcast of why I think it's
important to try to reshore American manufacturing. I can't understand
how did the administration only tackle remasturing manufacturing from just
the tariff perspective. I've said constantly, I've wrote about this,
how federal contracts are a really important part of the
(09:38):
narrative that I don't think the administration is used enough of.
It's also daunting to try to understand and find the
reasoning and the end goal behind these tariffs. Depending on
who you're listening to, whether it be Peter Navarro or
Commerce Secretary Lutnik or Treasury Secretary best Set, you're hearing
different things. If anything, the biggest problem of the latter
(09:59):
part of the Trump's one hundred days of this administration
is that they haven't been on the same page of times,
leading into complicating and sometimes worrying effects in the economy.
The tariffs have caused a lot of volatility, with the
value of the dollar decreasing, the Dow Jones, the NASDAK,
and the S and P five hundred all losing about
ten percent of their value since the day that Trump
(10:19):
was sworn into office. Now, the volatility and the fear
of tariffs have also worked in Trump's favor. This sort
of sort of Madman approach to economic policy was successful
in getting some companies to announced that they're bringing manufacturing back.
According to CBS News, Johnson and Johnson Abbott Laboratories, Apple, Shabani,
Crazy Art, Honda, Hondai, Roachi, Navidia, and TSMC all announced
(10:45):
multi billion dollar plans to bring manufacturing back into the
United States because the fear of tariffs, so they're going
to start making some stuff in America. That part is
a win, even though it's been very messy and the
stock market has been veried down and sellectible. You know,
tons of bad stories with this administration. Now. While I
think trade, immigration, does are the biggest parts of his
first one hundred days, they're the issues that define it
(11:08):
in the media and to a lot of voters, they're
not the only things he's tackles. He's improved military recruitment
and retention rates. He's been working on this piece deal
with Ukraine and Russia. Let's see where that goes. He's
pushed Arnato allies to increase more spending and defense, and
he's working on his tax policy. It's probably going to
be the most significant piece of legislation during his term
in office is this new tax till he's working on,
(11:30):
no tax on tips, and no tax on social Security,
possibly a millionaire's tax. I mean, who knows. If there's
anything though that I've been surprised by in Trump's first
one hundred days is He's made actually no judicial appointments.
He's not a single one. Remember during first Trump's first term,
he was breaking numbers, breaking records as far as judicial appointments,
and so far he has appointed exactly zero people to
(11:53):
the federal judiciary, despite there being forty five vacancies on
federal courts, three in the appellate court, and forty two
in district courts. So, with all this information I just
gave you, how does this affect him in the eyes
of voters? How does this affect him in the polls?
According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump's approval
writing in April from April seventh to April twenty third
stands at forty six point one percent, while his disapproval
(12:16):
number is at fifty one point six percent. Of course,
not all polls are created equally, and I'm looking only
at certain high quality pollings that give their cross tabs
or the crosstabs available to the public. That's really important
to me. I'm looking primarily at Signal, Pew Research, Fox News, Atlas, Intel,
and CBS. The narrative is basically the same. Americans are
(12:41):
pretty mixed on Doge. They're very unhappy about tariffs, they're
very work with the economy, and they are very much
giving him the thumbs up when it comes to immigration,
although they do want him to listen to court orders
when it comes to people who are deported under stranger
circumstances or there's a lot of litigation over it, but
overall the port mass deportation. But among these major polishers
(13:03):
with cross taps open, Trump has a forty five percent
of crole rating. It stands at fifty percent with men,
forty percent with women fifty percent, with white voters twenty
one percent, with black voters forty percent, with Latinos forty
six percent, with seniors thirty seven percent, with voters under thirty,
forty three percent among voters with a college degree, forty
(13:24):
eight percent of those without a college degree, and thirty
six percent among independents. That isn't wonderful when it comes
to swing voters, especially for Republicans going to the next
year's midterm. He's going to have to increase those numbers
big time and try to get some stability in the
economy and get the economy growing again. That will be
(13:44):
a major point of contention for congressional Republicans going into
the midterms and President Trump now once once again, they
aren't great numbers with swing voters, but among Trump's base,
they are extremely loyal. Almost no Trump voters are sitting
there and saying I made a mistake. It's very, very
high retention among his base, which Trump has kept. He's
(14:08):
kept that for almost a decade at this point. He's
kept his base together through thick and thin, and that
is enough to keep him in office and to wield
significant influence over the party. And when it comes to
keeping the promises he made to those voters, Trump's done
a pretty good job in the first one hundred days.
Mark Puto, a brilliant journalist from Axios, is my guess
(14:29):
he's up next. We're going to talk about the first
one hundred days, what these policies mean, and what it's
looking like in Trump's first one hundred days, his legacy
and the upcoming midterms, Stay tuned. Our guest this week
is my buddy Mark Puto. He is a brilliant reporter
from Axios. Mark, thank you for being on.
Speaker 2 (14:49):
Owe you money for that kind introduction.
Speaker 1 (14:51):
Now, Mark, you are one of the best in the business.
So April thirtieth is Trump's one hundredth day in office.
How would you characterize his first one hundred days.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
I would divide it in half. There was and I
should count the number of days to have a better
specific answer, But there was the Trump administration up until
Liberation Day, and then there was Liberation Day. On Liberation
Day being that period where he's like okay, tariff time
and that's where things got really chopd well.
Speaker 1 (15:23):
I say it's over three issues. Has been the first
one hundred days. There was the doge, which was the first,
which was the first apocalypsecorning the media. Then there was
immigration enforcement, which is the second, and then the tariffs
were the third. That's the three headed apocalypse of the
Trump administration's first one hundred days. Some more successful than
the others. Doge it looks like when they have hard
(15:47):
numbers of what actually saved save about fifty seven billion dollars,
not a small amount in my opinion, but far less
than what everyone was saying was going to happen.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
Like Elon Musk talking about two trillion trillion and one
hundred and fifty billion. Yeah, yeah, that's that's most.
Speaker 1 (16:04):
Most hundred billion is un itemized deductions that they don't
know where he's talking about it from. So, but fifty
seven billion is a hard number. He is announced on
Tuesday he's stepping away from the daily data day activities.
Dose is supposed to sunset in July fourth, twenty twenty six. Overall,
I don't know if it's if it's left the impression
(16:28):
the legacy it was supposed to do, and I don't
know if it's an overwhelming success. I kind of are
on the side of it's probably more more or less not.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
It has all of the quality of over promising and
under delivering, right with an added dose of sort of
kind of the chaos on top of it. Well, when
you talk about the three headed monster, I mean two
of those I generally kind of ignore because to your point,
those were sort of mainstream media freak ass, right, they
didn't really get into the public mind, to the public pocketbook.
(17:00):
When the stock markets started going sort of haywire with
the Trump tariffs and the mixed messaging and the two
steps forward, one step back, another step to the side
that was different up until that point. One of the
folks at the White House I had spoken to talked
about how they kept a calendar and they were happy,
(17:22):
and they said, every day, you know, I put either
a W you know when, loss or a draw. And
at first it was just all WS. Now I haven't
spoken to them again, but there have been far fewer
wus since the tariff situation in drama has taken over.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
Well, I would say that dose is kind of I mean,
I guess fifty seven billions thirty seven billion is not
a loss, but it's not what they promised. On immigration,
interior deportations far exceed Joe Biden's thirty percent increase of
people detained. When they say that the deportations were higher
under Biden, they're including people who were returned away at
the border. Will Since there's been a ninety six percent
(18:02):
reduction of border apprehensions, which is the actual amount of
it was like ninety five point nine percent reduction, there
are less people to turn away at the border. Therefore,
if you look at just interior enforcement, that number is
up significantly. What I and we'll see what happens when
(18:23):
it comes to the actual deportations of all these executive orders,
and the big gem, in my opinion, the big big prize,
if he could get, is the Supreme Court ruling on
birthright citizenship for non citizens, for illegal aliens and temporary
vise holders. That will be the if he can get that.
I don't know if he will be able to, but
if he can, it will be the biggest victory I
(18:44):
think on the right when it comes to immigration. And
I don't even know since Eisenhower, it's a long time.
Speaker 2 (18:51):
Yeah, I find it hard to believe. I'm not a
constitutional scholar, but when I read the plane language the
fourteenth Amendment, it's hard for me to see how the
Court is going to side with the president. I understand
there are these other are these historical readings, historic historical
or historical historical? That is, at the time they were
talking about slaves, they weren't talking about immigrants. Today's immigration
(19:15):
is different now than it was then. Essentially didn't exist
back then. But to the degree the Supreme Court is
a political body, and I think all bodies are political
bodies to a degree when they have human beings on them,
especially those in the government process. Trump's legal team and
(19:35):
his administration have increasingly sort of picked fights with the
courts that it might not needed to have picked. And
so I think it's fair to say that if and
I'm using a lot of weasel words, if there was
sort of some goodwill before where it's like, oh, let's
give them the benefit of the doubt, I think some
(19:57):
of that's exhausted with all but the really hardcore conservatives
on the Supreme Court.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
Why is it because of the not listening to the
lower course decisions on border on deportations.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
I think so. Yeah, And remember Roberts. Justice Roberts took
that sort of extraordinary step of kind of rebuke might
be too strong a verb, but you know, sort of
telling Trump like, hey, you know, back off criticizing these
judges just for doing their jobs. I think that that
was notable. That having been said, I do think that
(20:34):
they are going to be able to get a number
of victories out of the court on immigration. Regarding you know,
the big case Kilmar Abrigo Garcia. The the Supreme Court
has already signified its discomfort in telling having the judicial
branch tell the executive branch, Hey, uh, we're going to
(20:56):
tell you how to conduct foreign policy now that this
guy is overseas. It's a really messy case. My conspiracy
minded hat and when I wear it makes me think
that maybe they chose this case for a reason, but
it's probably a little more organic. My guess is there
was an Ice agent in Maryland, in the Baltimore area
who knew Kilmar, who wanted to get him. And now
(21:19):
that there's you know, the.
Speaker 3 (21:20):
Trump regime, the Trump administration's back, they're like, okay, buddy,
we're gonna get you.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
And so they got him. They got Killmar in the system.
Now it's a question did someone actually know that there
was a deep a withhold on deporting him to El
Salvador or not. I'm not sure. But the bottom line
is is that he was deported to El Salvador unlawfully
or in violation of court order. And now here we
are right.
Speaker 1 (21:44):
I mean, it's just and this is I guess it's
a bigger conversation then we can afford. And I'm not
a legal brain either, but I just I think that
I think when they give the courts give these temporary
protections from deportation out of fear or intimidation, and then
that that that what would have caused fear for your
(22:06):
life has has ended. In the case of of of this,
of the of the Maryland man is this rival gang?
The rival gang doesn't exist anymore, So what is your
fear at a deportation anymore? And that's I mean predates this.
There were cases like in Honduras where there was an
earthquake and people were here for twenty something years out
(22:26):
of fear for their life, or an earthquake on a
temporary protector.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
So earthquaker was a hurricane Mitch.
Speaker 1 (22:32):
I was Hurricane Mitch. That was it? Yeah, but it
was twenty something years ago and they were still here
on a temporary protecting status over a hurricane from twenty
years ago, right.
Speaker 2 (22:41):
I mean, it just goes to show that a lot
of things, once once they're called temporary, really aren't temporary.
There is, of course, the media coverage angle of this.
The the a lot of people in mainstream media are
elighting some of the more complicating aspects of a Brago
Garcia's story. If the reports out of Tennessee are true,
(23:02):
where he was stopped driving a vehicle of a guy
who had been busted for human smuggling, and he had
a bunch of people in the car he wasn't related to,
who all gave the same address that he did. Like, well,
maybe we should look at whether or not the Fed's
(23:22):
got it right that this guy was engaged in.
Speaker 4 (23:27):
Unlawful activities if you, I mean, by the left making
him the face the poster boy of the perfect illegal
immigant who should never have been deported.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
If it goes left and there is you know, a
literal or figurative body in the closet, it's a real
problem for Democrats. It kind of undermines their entire argument
for any stopping any future deportations under President Trump. So
but overall, on illegal immigration, Trump has been more a
(24:00):
pretty big win overall successful by far.
Speaker 2 (24:03):
I mean, he's delivering on by large on what he said.
I haven't even said. I do understand that the civil
libertarian argument that you know, a court order is a
court order and you shouldn't violate it, even if I'm.
Speaker 1 (24:14):
Not yeah, I'm not I'm not making I'm not giving
I'm just saying. I'm saying as far as promises to voters,
go I think on immigration is probably one of the
biggest runaway successes. Inflation has certainly gone down. Despite what
I mean. You should live in the media. There's breadlines
out of everyone's door. Now let's go to tariff. Tariffs
(24:37):
are problem. Tariffs are what I don't understand, Mark, and
you are you. I pay attention to the news, but
you write the news. So maybe you can understand if
you listen to Peter Navarro, if you listen to the
Secretary of Commerce, and if you look at the Secretary
of Treasury, they all have different reasons of why we're
doing these tariffs. They all have different end goals for
(24:59):
why we're doing these tariffs. Okay, so if you listen
to and maybe I'm wrong, so correct me wrong. Record
of the Peter Navarro story is we're going to basically
a neoliberalism as we know it, and change the way
we do international economics and become named meticulals mercantile, mercantile
(25:20):
nation in one way or the other. If you listened
to best set the Secretary of the Treasury, it's to
end all these opposing tariffs on us. We'll have real
free trade except for China. China is its own thing,
and then if you listen to the Commerce Secretary, it's
somewhere in between, but his own kind of thing that
(25:41):
he's doing on his own. Why hasn't the administration seemed
to have one single narrative for the last three weeks?
Speaker 2 (25:49):
I touched on this to plug my own story in Axios,
in a story called Trump's Tariff Brain, Inside Trump's Tariff Brain.
The answer is all of the above. Donald Trump he
wants to do lots of things with tariffs. And if
you understand that, Donald Trump has been talking about other
countries have ripped us off for you know years. I
(26:09):
mean first he first gave us in a speech in
nineteen eighty seven, thirty eight years ago. Boy, now I
feel rilled he gave this.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
So he gave the speech at nineteen eighty seven, we're
talking about other nations are ripping us off. He didn't
quite say tariffs, but that's what he's talking about, negotiating
better trade deals.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
Understanding that, look at Trump as a guy who is
often or more often directionally right than his critics give
him credit for. Okay, So it's a very kind of
a very specific phrase I'm using there. And if you understand,
like the direction he wants to go. He wants to
(26:49):
go in the direction of more manufacturing. He wants to
go in the direction of a different trade deficit, a
more balanced trade deficit with other nations. He wants to
go in the direction of Ian government revenue from this
in part to pay for the tax cuts, so to speak,
pay for that he wants to extend. He wants to
have more manufacturing in the country. Those are all things
(27:10):
he wants to do. So all of those guys who
are out there speaking are sort of different avatars of him.
And the reality says Donald Trump hasn't made up his mind.
And Donald Trump has last guy in the room syndrome
as well. So he frequently falls victim to analysis paralysis
because he surrounds himself. And this is perhaps to his credit.
(27:35):
It certainly is the credit if you believe in like
open minded epistemology, like get acquiring information. That is, he
gets everyone's opinion in the room. The thing is, he
doesn't know when to stop and right or it takes
a while for him to kind of arrive at them.
So that's one. And then there's the last guy in
(27:55):
the room syndrome.
Speaker 3 (27:56):
So He's got all these different advisors who have these
different faces of sort of the tear and what they
could do, and he likes all of them.
Speaker 2 (28:03):
So I don't know this for a fact, but generally
I can totally see it where Howard Lutnik is in
there like hey, here's what we gotta do, like, oh yeah, great,
go out there, and he says it, and then that's true,
and then best's in They're like, hey, here's what we
gotta do, Like great, you go out there and you
do that. And this is what we're seeing. For those
(28:24):
of us who are accustomed.
Speaker 3 (28:25):
To Donald Trump and the sort of you know, are
able to understand that there's always gonna be a lot
of noise and you just have to focus on the
directional signal.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
It makes a lot more sense. The thing is is
the stock market doesn't work that way, right. He's approaching
this like a political campaign where he's never quite clear.
He likes to have leverage. It's all the sort of
now you see me, now you don't stuff. It's asymmetry
very good at that stock market hates that shit. And
so here we are.
Speaker 1 (28:53):
What I don't understand is and I send a message
song on you in the White House, and I said, this,
manufacturing is your main goal, and and it's important, it's
an important effort that we should be undertaking as a country,
but it is your main goal. There are there is
a lot of different hammers to use to nail that,
to nail that into the wall well, And I mentioned
(29:16):
this on this podcast. I wrote about this federal like
federal contracts. Make sure federal contracts are focused on restoring
like pharmaceuticals or military equipment or whatever. That part hasn't happened,
Like there's no, they're not. It's not a full uh
you know, full court press on to faces on every front.
(29:36):
It seems like it's just tariffs, and that makes it
confusing and people worrysome and also allowing people who have
stocks and in companies that are way overvalued to sit
there and deplete their stocks and to sell them and
to make sure that you know, blame the terrists for
it instead of some crappy companies that are well up
too much money on their hands and whatever. That's that's
(30:00):
whether their stocks are revalue, I should say to us.
But their stocks are revalued. That is all happening. And
he's allowing himself to do it, and it just seems
like it's a mess. And I saw that he wants
to reduce tariffs in China. Where is he right now?
Do we have tariffs on any country as there is there?
Speaker 2 (30:15):
We have the ten percent across the board tark. Yeah,
that we do have, and and technically we have one
hundred and forty five percent tariff on goods from China,
which is effectively, as one of the folks in his
economic team has pointed out to me, this is not
tariffs really we're talking about right now, this is a
trade embargo.
Speaker 1 (30:35):
Right.
Speaker 2 (30:35):
Wall Street Journal had an interesting story with an anecdote
as their lead, like there was this I didn't realize
that people import that we import eyelashes, And there's like
China sends us eyelashes. Now god knows where they came from.
But you know, someone.
Speaker 3 (30:53):
Spoke against President g and is now you know, an
eyelash donor or whatever.
Speaker 2 (30:57):
But there's this truck of eyelashes that's like stuck at
the Mexico border. Like we are, in effectively for a
lot of these goods, a trade embargo like zero trade.
I had reported the other day on Tuesday that when
Donald Trump met Monday with the heads of Walmart, Home
(31:23):
Depot and Target that what they privately told him was, hey,
we're looking at some empty shelves in as early as
two weeks. So there are these different messages they're getting
to him, and he is sort of reacting to it.
But generally speaking, here I'm sort of scooping myself. One
of the people I'd spoken to who who's spoken to
(31:46):
Trump with some regularity, you know, when the stock market
was doing all this stuff, I asked him like, well,
what's what's the present's mindset.
Speaker 3 (31:51):
They're like, oh, he's having a great time. I said yeah,
and I said yeah. He just keeps talking about the
deals they're gonna do. He's like Japan's coming in and yeah,
knobs coming in.
Speaker 2 (32:00):
You wouldn't believe what's going to happen with South Korea.
So he's sort of on cloud nine. And the portrayal
there is a little bit of a disconnect between what
a lot of people are seeing and certainly you know,
those people who have money in the stock market, but
his general sense right now is still again, actually this
way and we're in this you know, this is Trump's world.
(32:24):
We're all living in it right now. Where he's going
to be kind of fine tuning and real time testing
this stuff. But I think there's a long roundabout answer
to I think it was a question you posed, which
is this wasn't necessarily very well thought out in the implementation.
And I think this is an old man in a hurry.
(32:45):
He's wanted to do this since nineteen eighty seven at least. Okay,
he is now president for his second and final term.
And let's ignore Steve Man and saying he's gonna get
their term. Yeah, you know, he's almost eighty years old,
so he wants to do this stuff now.
Speaker 3 (33:02):
And let's face it, when I said he was more
often directionally right than his critics, you have him credit
for he's the only guy who's really come out and
made free trade an issue and said, hey, a lot
of the free trade has been bad as hollowed out
or manufacturing sector.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
You really didn't hear that in the Republican Party before
twenty fifteen, right, you just didn't. And he's the he's
the guy, right, Yeah, the good point. Yeah, there's a
great political.
Speaker 1 (33:29):
Six But since nineteen ninety six in Buchanan ran, it's
been though twenty or sixteen to twenty nineteen ninety six
to twenty sixteen was twenty years.
Speaker 3 (33:37):
Yeah, and he is the only guy, the only president
who's like, Okay, fuck it, you know you're talking about you.
Speaker 2 (33:45):
Know, the problem of the hammer or everything looks like
a nail. I mean, he just hit the glass. Yeah,
So we're there now. Whether it's going to work or not,
it is a big experiment and it is kind of
a shock to the system. But the reality is he
is the only present who's really given voice to this
problem and the only president who's really tried to solve it.
(34:05):
The question is is is solution Is the cure worse
than the sickness because one of the things his advisors
have said, and sorry, I'm I'll get this out, is
is that they view the American economy as a sick
patient and and it's in and it is in bad
need of medicine. And I in one of my conversations
(34:26):
with one of these people, said, well, yeah, that's true.
But you know, if you have cancer, they give you
a chemo very often, and chemotherapy is basically poison. That
boils down to this, you either are going to kill
the cancer or kill yourself. And so you have to
be careful administering the medicine of the poison in chemotherapy.
And what I wonder here is is did Trump just
(34:49):
come in and just inject a whole bunch of I
don't know, rat poison or whatever into this and we're
going to see or maybe not?
Speaker 1 (34:56):
Uhh, I mean, I mean, and you have some headlines
with some companies and and they're reassuring jobs in America.
There's a lots to live on for those headlines. To
Let's ask two questions. One, what is this? What does
this do for Republicans looking at twenty twenty six?
Speaker 2 (35:12):
How you're looking tough? I have not been talking to
Republicans much, but man, in our in our elections are
our elections generally break on the fault line of a
division of desire and terror right right and anger and love.
(35:34):
There's not a lot of love out there, so let's
just throw that out. So the gasoline that powers the
engines of our elections is anger, and the left is angry.
They're out there protesting Tesla, you know. So I see
more energy, and I understand, with respect to Saint Paul,
(35:55):
that I see through a glass darkly that I don't
understand the tire picture on Donald the whole nation, but
the energy looks like it's on on the left when
you look at the fact that the stock market is
not doing so well, the dollar is deflating, is devaluing,
the IMF is cutting growth rate forecasts of the United States.
Home sales are starting to decline. And Donald Trump, through
(36:18):
implementing these tariffs in such a way, made this his economy.
It's really gonna be difficult for him to sit around
and blame Biden.
Speaker 1 (36:25):
All the Republicans have well blue pass expectations on fundraising numbers,
and there were was good economic indicators before Liberation Day.
But I mean, we'll see.
Speaker 2 (36:36):
I mean the market, the market really wants. The market
is almost like, uh, you know, an abused person who
just wants a little bit of good news.
Speaker 3 (36:46):
Like literally, where Donald Trump gives a little bit of
good news, it's like and the market shoots back and
then it comes back down. So uh, I don't know
how long that's gonna last, but there is still some
sort of pent up goodwill in the market. Where if
there is a more I think, if there's a more cohesive, intelligible, predictable,
(37:07):
reliable presentation of where we're going to go and how
we're going to get there that if you were to
ask me this question of how Republicans are feeling, my
answer might change. But right now I think things favor
Democrats more.
Speaker 1 (37:23):
Yeah, well, okay, in terms of prompt My last question,
in terms of promises to his voters, things he campaigned on,
and what he's achieved. How would you grade Trump's first
one hundred days, not solely on the success or how
it's looking, but what he promised and then what he's
been delivered.
Speaker 2 (37:37):
I mean, from all the supporters I know of his
and the people who didn't vote for him, who support him,
they're very happy, like because, as they pointed out, there's
a possibility that a majority or a plurality of his
voters aren't real stock market people. So I don't really
give a shit about a lot of stuff I just
talked about there. They voted for him because of immigration
(37:57):
and attitude and.
Speaker 1 (38:00):
Demograph poles is eighteen to twenty one year olds.
Speaker 2 (38:03):
What's that.
Speaker 1 (38:04):
Trump's best demographic in the latest Yale poll is eighteen
to twenty one year olds.
Speaker 2 (38:09):
The Harvard David Sure found too. That's the Harvard poll
that John Delavelpie had released showed that he was hamorrhaging
support of younger people.
Speaker 1 (38:20):
That was the Harvard Harris pol I think, so, I
know it's Harvard.
Speaker 2 (38:23):
I don't know if it's Harvard Harris.
Speaker 1 (38:24):
Yeah, Harvard Harris poles are terrible. And I'm just gonna
tell you like but no, no, no, I take polsters like
ignore Harvard Harris is a joke of bolster, just my
own personal opinion. I never listened to them. But the
Yale poll, I think is back. They are. They're a
joke of pual So they do a terrible job each
and every time. The Yale poll is decent. The Pew
(38:45):
Pearl poll is very good, it's very thorough, but it's
I mean, it's terrible for Trump. It was his worst
poll by far. The NBC NBC Post pole that was good,
The Washington Post pole was decent. So he's had some
decent ones. I think that none of time is settled
to really see what the tariff situation is looking like.
But the problem we have a Trump as far as
(39:06):
as far as like the Democrats have with Trump is
there's such a little elasticity, like he's never going to
get to Joe Biden or George W. Bush numbers into
the twenties because he can't because his base that loves
him is so fervently committed, and the.
Speaker 2 (39:20):
It's kind of like a thirty five percent floor. Basically,
it's like, yeah.
Speaker 1 (39:23):
It's in the mid thirties percent floor and the ceiling
is fifty two percent, and we just live in that
fifteen percent range. Wherever we go. He'll never be never
have Joe Biden positive numbers, He'll never have Joe Biden
negative numbers, will never have Bush positive numbers, and have
Bush negative numbers. And so we live in this world
where he's just kind of stuck and everyone has a
strong opinion of him. But the fact that eighteen to
(39:45):
twenty one year olds and both the David Short data
on the election and then the NBA and then the
Yale pole is pretty wild. And it might be because
one they don't have stocks and two because it's you know,
I like the attitude.
Speaker 2 (39:57):
Oh yeah, I think it's a big part of it.
I don't think the the left has really helped its case,
especially among young men, that that horse has been beaten
and kicked to death. The other issue, I think that
Republicans need to think about, which you saw a play
out in Wisconsin, is that the Trump machine without Trump
is not much of a machine, like he activates certain
voters right.
Speaker 1 (40:18):
Well, seniors are increasingly becoming democratic as baby boomer like
you time when they're like, what happened to seniors? Because
the seniors that live in your head have died, Like
you're not willing to admit that, but you're thinking of
your grandparents who aren't alive anymore, and you're not understanding,
like Archie Bunker is not the senior citizen, he's dead.
Meathead is the senior citizen. Jane Fond is a senior citizen,
(40:42):
Like these are the senior citizens. Rosie o'donald is a
senior A meathead? No, but those are, But those are
senior citizens now. They are not the British generation or
Joe Biden's generation. I mean there are a few of
those left people up, but not many. They are overwhelmingly
the counter culture.
Speaker 2 (40:58):
Yeah, as a Florida based guy, we experienced that quite clearly.
We used to have, especially in South Florida, Southeast Florida,
what we would call the condo commandos. These are these
older FDR voters who were just reliably blue, and it's
what kept Florida bloom at first, and then with the
wave of more Republicans, we kept at purple. Now we're
(41:21):
just importing Republican super voters.
Speaker 1 (41:23):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I really where we have to go.
But on a really quick story, my grandfather grew up
from from Lowie side of Manhattan and Brooklyn. His whole life,
almost all his friends were Jewish, and those typical New
York Liberal Democratic Jewish like almost like a cartoon of
what a Jewish voter from New York's politics are like.
And I remember the Bloomberg election at five, is my
(41:44):
first election I could get vote in earsthing and I said,
I was like, oh, yeah, I'm voting for Bloomberg, you know,
as a Republican. And his friends said, oh, I voted
for Bloomberg as a Democrat. And I said, no, you didn't.
You voted No, he's not a Democrat as a Republican.
Literally twenty minutes screaming over the dining room table. This man,
He's like, I never voted for a Republican in my life.
I wouldn't vote. I voted for him as a Democrat.
I'm like he would not admit to his own self
(42:07):
that it was possibly could vote for a Republican. So yeah,
I know those voters very well. But most of them
have suns, you know, gone to their great rust. So
that is the eternal rust. So that is what Uh,
that's what people do. Mark, thank you so much. We're
gonna end up. Mark, thank you for being on this podcast.
Speaker 2 (42:25):
Note yes, yes, sir, that was great.
Speaker 1 (42:27):
Where people go to read your stuff.
Speaker 2 (42:29):
Axidos dot com. Uh, and I'm on Twitter at Mark A. Caputo.
It's Mark with the C marc Antonio. Now, Mark tell
you Mark Antonio is technically my first name. Okay, one word.
Speaker 1 (42:41):
Well, thank you so much. Mark. I'll speak to you soon.
Speaker 2 (42:44):
Appreciate you. Man.
Speaker 1 (42:45):
You're listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Grodowsky.
We'll be right back. This is the ask Me Anything
segment of the podcast, where you guys can send me
any kinds of questions you want and I'm depending on
those questions. Send them my way and let me I'll
tell you if I can find out any information and
give you the data behind what you're worried about. You
(43:05):
could email me at ryanat Numbers Game podcast dot com
numbers is plural. Ryan at Numbers gamepodcast dot com question
this week, do we think that AOC will be the
Democratic nominee in twenty twenty eight? I don't know, is
the simple short of it. No one knows. I will
say two things. One, she's raising a lot of money,
and she has her face in the media. And that's
(43:26):
what a lot of people assume is the answer is
who they've seen the most. Like Gavin Newsom's face is
always in the media, you will assume it means he
must be the nominee. What you need to look at, though,
and what a smart analysis of elections look like, is
where is the primary process going to begin in twenty
twenty eight. If it begins in Iowa and New Hampshire
as it had for one hundred years, they are more
(43:50):
open to more progressive candidates. They help Barack Obama, they
help Bernie Sanders, those kinds of states. If the election
begins in South Carolina, that is a much more and
we're a different electorate. It's black primarily, but it's a
majority of black and the Democratic primary and it is
much more conservative both socially and economically. They are not
down hardcore progressive voters. So if the party primary starts
(44:14):
in the Deep South and in specially in South Carolina,
it's a primary process looking to try to nominate a moderate,
and that's what we'll probably see. Anyway, we're three years away,
so we'll find out. Ben Thank you Social listeners podcast.
Please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio Apple podcast. Wherever
you listen to your podcast, give me a five star
review if you feel generous, Thank you so much. Listen
(44:36):
on Thursday and see it later this week.
Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Grudowski. Thank
you for being here for another week. Very excited. This
is a jam packed week with news. You have the
Pope's funeral over the weekend, the Canadian federal election today.
My birthday is tomorrow, if he wants to shout that out.
And Trump's one hundredth day in office is on Wednesday.
So a very busy week, a very exciting week to do,
(00:24):
and I want to talk to you about the pinnacle
of Wednesday. About Trump's first one hundred days in office.
Technically it's his second one hundred first days in office
because it's, you know, the first non consecutive presidence in
scuover Cleveland. I don't know what you call it, but
that's what it is. Going into his second term, many
in the media expected Trump to be a lame duck
president that they couldn't do very much because he only
(00:46):
had one term to serve unless they change the constitution
and he can run for a third term, which I'm
going to guess is unlikely. So here are some numbers
behind Trump's second one hundred days. He has so far
issued one hundred and thirty seven executive order, a record
breaking number, signed five billion to law and stated that
he would put tariffs of over eleven percent on fifty
seven countries. Now always passed relatively few laws, Joe Biden
(01:11):
and Georgie of b Bush signed seven during their first
one hundred days. Barack Obama signed eleven bill Clinton had
twenty one, and actually Trump's in his first terms first
first one hundred days signed the most, a twenty four
according to the UK and Dependent. I think when you
look down and you boil downs for Trump's first one
hundred days of his second term, you come down to
(01:31):
three big issues. The three issues that have defined these
last one hundred days defined it, especially in the eyes of
the media. They are DOGE, immigration and trade. So let's
start with DOGE. At the behest of the president, Elon
Musk began working to slash spending and make the federal
government more efficient. He announced the last week. Elon Musk
announced last week rather that he's going to step away
(01:53):
slightly from the role as I guess he's not head
of DOGE but overseeing consulting DOGE, but the team he's
created it will still be in charge of the federal
agency's dog is set to sunset on July fourth, twenty
twenty six. So I guess for the next fourteen months
they'll continue. Now, while the group received a lot of
praise from conservatives who cheered that he's going to end
(02:14):
and he's ended contracts and useless federal agencies and programs
like USAID because he gutted that one, musk has claimed
that dog has saved taxpayers one hundred and fifty billion dollars.
That's a lot of money. Heck, I think when you've
deficits this high, anything in the billions as far as
cutting is a lot of money. But the one hundred
(02:35):
and fifty billion dollar claim is just fifteen percent of
what Trump promised. When it comes to waste for ant abuse,
I remember he originally promised two trillion dollars in cuts,
and then when he president came into office, it was
one trillion. Now it's got to me it was one
hundred and fifty billion. When the New York Times looked
at the numbers, it gets a little murkier. According to
the New York Times, sixty percent or ninety two point
(02:56):
two billion of that one hundred and fifty billion dollars
came from uniemized savings things that are very hard to prove.
The savings that are easy to prove, that they can
justifiably prove is thirty two point five billion in itemized grants,
twenty four point eight billion in itemized contracts, and three
hundred and ninety seven million in itemized leases. Basically empty
(03:18):
offices of the building that the government was wasting money
on it empty offices and buildings across DC. So from
what we can itemize from savings, dough just save tax
payers that we know of. Definitely that we know of
fifty eight billion dollars. Now that's not nothing. I believed
in order to balance a budget, you need to cut
anywhere you possibly can. I'm all for cutting wasteful spending
and to do whatever they can. And it's important for
(03:40):
Trump because he needs to sit there in quote unquote
pay for tax cuts. He needs to sit there and
try to balance the budget. It's part of his campaign
from US. But DOGE as a whole came with a
lot of attacks on both Trump and Elon Musk. Elon
Musk's negative numbers have increased substantially during his time at DOGE,
and we saw a series of lawsuits over whether who
we could fire, what contracts he could end, and what
(04:01):
happened to any sensitive federal data he access was the
apple worth the bite. I guess we'll see, but Doge
hasn't seen the level of spending cuts that they hoped for.
But I guess stories on Doge seem so thirty days
ago in this administration. The current crisis the media is
really obsessing over is Trump's handling of mass deportations. So
let's get some numbers on that. The numbers of illegal
(04:23):
aliens who were apprehended our southern border in both February
and March of twenty twenty five were twenty two thousand,
seven hundred and twenty six. That's according to the Border Patrol.
Those are both during months that Trump was fully president,
so he was fully in charged. Twenty two thousand, seven
hundred and twenty six aliens apprehended at the border, with
(04:44):
very very very few being released. In the year prior
February and March twenty twenty four, when Biden was still president,
seventy two illegal aliens came to our southern border, with
many being released into the interior of the United States.
So just by enforcement the law already in the books,
but Trump did not get any new laws. When it
comes to the border, you just use the laws that
are currently on the books. President Trump has saw a
(05:06):
ninety four percent reduction of border crossings over a one
year period. It is truly remarkable. He proved we did
not need new laws, We just needed a president and
political will power to s that they're enforced the current laws. Now,
we signed a number of executive orders on I leege immigration,
most notably ending birthright citizenship for illegal aliens and temporary
(05:27):
visa holders, DNA testing of illegal aliens to say third
country agreements remain in Mexico, ending catcher release holding refugee resettlement,
canceling Joe Biden's absolutely ridiculous CHNV program, which would have
protected migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela from being
deported while they applied for asylum, and he used the
(05:48):
Alien Enemies Act to deport gang members and send them
to a maximum security prison in Al Salvador. Now, most
of these executive orders are tied up in litigation with
district court judges giving an unprecedented amount of nationwide injunctions,
more than any president in history, and I believe actually
almost as many if not more than all the nationwide
injunctions among every president in history combined. Very few have
(06:11):
made their way up to the Supreme Court so far.
Some are slowly making their way. The executive order over birthright,
citizenship or arguments begin or in mid May, so we'll
have to wait and see. We'll see how many of
these executive orders are given the green light by SCOTUS,
how President Trump handles the decision, how he continues to
execute his executive authority. Definitely, Stephen Miller has shown that
(06:35):
he's committed to the project of mass deportation, which Trump
promised during the campaign, and he's using every available law
at his disposal.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Now.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
While it's difficult to get an exact reading of how
many illegal aliens currently are in the country, that in
the country that we're currently deported, these are called removals
by ICE. As of March nineteenth, which is the last
available day that they gave a hard number, they're supposed
to be another one in the next few days as
of this recording, but President Trump removed twenty eight thousand
(07:04):
illegal aliens from the interior of the United States from
his time in office on January twentieth until March nineteenth.
Here's where the data gets tricky. Donald Trump is outpacing
Joe Biden when it comes to removals people that are
in the country that he is arresting with ICE and
deporting that are leaving the country. But the media can
categorize it and has categorized it by saying that actually
(07:26):
he lacks Biden because but ICE also is responsible for
removing illegal aliens detained at the border. Well, as I
said before, Trump's law enforcing the laws on the books
has caused border crossings to drop by ninety four percent,
so there are fewer illegal aliens to remove crossing the
border to begin with. You could make the argument that
(07:49):
Biden deported more people. It's a argument not based completely
in truth. It's an argument used to push a narrative.
But I mean, there's there are some facts into it.
But when you really have to look is interior deportations.
Interior deportations, and when it comes to interior deportations, Trump
is absolutely outpacing Joe Biden. In the first seven weeks,
(08:13):
ICE also arrested forty eight thousand illegal aliens living in
the interior of the United States and put them into
tention centers that is a thirty percent increase compared to
the year prior. So no matter what the media says,
interior deportations interior enforcement under President Trump are up compared
to his predecessor. And lastly, let's talk about trade. Just
(08:34):
a few weeks ago, President Trump announced that it was
Liberation Day from the Rose Garden and that he announced
tariffs on dozens of countries as well as a blanket
ten percent tariff on all products entering the United States.
And to say it went less well than expected as
an understatement. Now, of all the issues Trump has campaigned
on over the last decade, nothing means more to him
than trade and balances and the trade deficit. He has
(08:56):
spoken about this going back to before I was born.
I mean, he's talked about this for decades, that he
wants to rebalance how we do trade. So here he is,
during his second term, doing exactly what he's always wanted
to do. Ten percent tariff on all important goods, increased
tariffs on some countries that have tariffs on American goods
they're called retaliatory tariffs. And at one hundred and forty
(09:17):
five percent tariff on all goods from China. I've talked
a lot on this podcast of why I think it's
important to try to reshore American manufacturing. I can't understand
how did the administration only tackle remasturing manufacturing from just
the tariff perspective. I've said constantly, I've wrote about this,
how federal contracts are a really important part of the
(09:38):
narrative that I don't think the administration is used enough of.
It's also daunting to try to understand and find the
reasoning and the end goal behind these tariffs. Depending on
who you're listening to, whether it be Peter Navarro or
Commerce Secretary Lutnik or Treasury Secretary best Set, you're hearing
different things. If anything, the biggest problem of the latter
(09:59):
part of the Trump's one hundred days of this administration
is that they haven't been on the same page of times,
leading into complicating and sometimes worrying effects in the economy.
The tariffs have caused a lot of volatility, with the
value of the dollar decreasing, the Dow Jones, the NASDAK,
and the S and P five hundred all losing about
ten percent of their value since the day that Trump
(10:19):
was sworn into office. Now, the volatility and the fear
of tariffs have also worked in Trump's favor. This sort
of sort of Madman approach to economic policy was successful
in getting some companies to announced that they're bringing manufacturing back.
According to CBS News, Johnson and Johnson Abbott Laboratories, Apple, Shabani,
Crazy Art, Honda, Hondai, Roachi, Navidia, and TSMC all announced
(10:45):
multi billion dollar plans to bring manufacturing back into the
United States because the fear of tariffs, so they're going
to start making some stuff in America. That part is
a win, even though it's been very messy and the
stock market has been veried down and sellectible. You know,
tons of bad stories with this administration. Now. While I
think trade, immigration, does are the biggest parts of his
first one hundred days, they're the issues that define it
(11:08):
in the media and to a lot of voters, they're
not the only things he's tackles. He's improved military recruitment
and retention rates. He's been working on this piece deal
with Ukraine and Russia. Let's see where that goes. He's
pushed Arnato allies to increase more spending and defense, and
he's working on his tax policy. It's probably going to
be the most significant piece of legislation during his term
in office is this new tax till he's working on,
(11:30):
no tax on tips, and no tax on social Security,
possibly a millionaire's tax. I mean, who knows. If there's
anything though that I've been surprised by in Trump's first
one hundred days is He's made actually no judicial appointments.
He's not a single one. Remember during first Trump's first term,
he was breaking numbers, breaking records as far as judicial appointments,
and so far he has appointed exactly zero people to
(11:53):
the federal judiciary, despite there being forty five vacancies on
federal courts, three in the appellate court, and forty two
in district courts. So, with all this information I just
gave you, how does this affect him in the eyes
of voters? How does this affect him in the polls?
According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump's approval
writing in April from April seventh to April twenty third
stands at forty six point one percent, while his disapproval
(12:16):
number is at fifty one point six percent. Of course,
not all polls are created equally, and I'm looking only
at certain high quality pollings that give their cross tabs
or the crosstabs available to the public. That's really important
to me. I'm looking primarily at Signal, Pew Research, Fox News, Atlas, Intel,
and CBS. The narrative is basically the same. Americans are
(12:41):
pretty mixed on Doge. They're very unhappy about tariffs, they're
very work with the economy, and they are very much
giving him the thumbs up when it comes to immigration,
although they do want him to listen to court orders
when it comes to people who are deported under stranger
circumstances or there's a lot of litigation over it, but
overall the port mass deportation. But among these major polishers
(13:03):
with cross taps open, Trump has a forty five percent
of crole rating. It stands at fifty percent with men,
forty percent with women fifty percent, with white voters twenty
one percent, with black voters forty percent, with Latinos forty
six percent, with seniors thirty seven percent, with voters under thirty,
forty three percent among voters with a college degree, forty
(13:24):
eight percent of those without a college degree, and thirty
six percent among independents. That isn't wonderful when it comes
to swing voters, especially for Republicans going to the next
year's midterm. He's going to have to increase those numbers
big time and try to get some stability in the
economy and get the economy growing again. That will be
(13:44):
a major point of contention for congressional Republicans going into
the midterms and President Trump now once once again, they
aren't great numbers with swing voters, but among Trump's base,
they are extremely loyal. Almost no Trump voters are sitting
there and saying I made a mistake. It's very, very
high retention among his base, which Trump has kept. He's
(14:08):
kept that for almost a decade at this point. He's
kept his base together through thick and thin, and that
is enough to keep him in office and to wield
significant influence over the party. And when it comes to
keeping the promises he made to those voters, Trump's done
a pretty good job in the first one hundred days.
Mark Puto, a brilliant journalist from Axios, is my guess
(14:29):
he's up next. We're going to talk about the first
one hundred days, what these policies mean, and what it's
looking like in Trump's first one hundred days, his legacy
and the upcoming midterms, Stay tuned. Our guest this week
is my buddy Mark Puto. He is a brilliant reporter
from Axios. Mark, thank you for being on.
Speaker 2 (14:49):
Owe you money for that kind introduction.
Speaker 1 (14:51):
Now, Mark, you are one of the best in the business.
So April thirtieth is Trump's one hundredth day in office.
How would you characterize his first one hundred days.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
I would divide it in half. There was and I
should count the number of days to have a better
specific answer, But there was the Trump administration up until
Liberation Day, and then there was Liberation Day. On Liberation
Day being that period where he's like okay, tariff time
and that's where things got really chopd well.
Speaker 1 (15:23):
I say it's over three issues. Has been the first
one hundred days. There was the doge, which was the first,
which was the first apocalypsecorning the media. Then there was
immigration enforcement, which is the second, and then the tariffs
were the third. That's the three headed apocalypse of the
Trump administration's first one hundred days. Some more successful than
the others. Doge it looks like when they have hard
(15:47):
numbers of what actually saved save about fifty seven billion dollars,
not a small amount in my opinion, but far less
than what everyone was saying was going to happen.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
Like Elon Musk talking about two trillion trillion and one
hundred and fifty billion. Yeah, yeah, that's that's most.
Speaker 1 (16:04):
Most hundred billion is un itemized deductions that they don't
know where he's talking about it from. So, but fifty
seven billion is a hard number. He is announced on
Tuesday he's stepping away from the daily data day activities.
Dose is supposed to sunset in July fourth, twenty twenty six. Overall,
I don't know if it's if it's left the impression
(16:28):
the legacy it was supposed to do, and I don't
know if it's an overwhelming success. I kind of are
on the side of it's probably more more or less not.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
It has all of the quality of over promising and
under delivering, right with an added dose of sort of
kind of the chaos on top of it. Well, when
you talk about the three headed monster, I mean two
of those I generally kind of ignore because to your point,
those were sort of mainstream media freak ass, right, they
didn't really get into the public mind, to the public pocketbook.
(17:00):
When the stock markets started going sort of haywire with
the Trump tariffs and the mixed messaging and the two
steps forward, one step back, another step to the side
that was different up until that point. One of the
folks at the White House I had spoken to talked
about how they kept a calendar and they were happy,
(17:22):
and they said, every day, you know, I put either
a W you know when, loss or a draw. And
at first it was just all WS. Now I haven't
spoken to them again, but there have been far fewer
wus since the tariff situation in drama has taken over.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
Well, I would say that dose is kind of I mean,
I guess fifty seven billions thirty seven billion is not
a loss, but it's not what they promised. On immigration,
interior deportations far exceed Joe Biden's thirty percent increase of
people detained. When they say that the deportations were higher
under Biden, they're including people who were returned away at
the border. Will Since there's been a ninety six percent
(18:02):
reduction of border apprehensions, which is the actual amount of
it was like ninety five point nine percent reduction, there
are less people to turn away at the border. Therefore,
if you look at just interior enforcement, that number is
up significantly. What I and we'll see what happens when
(18:23):
it comes to the actual deportations of all these executive orders,
and the big gem, in my opinion, the big big prize,
if he could get, is the Supreme Court ruling on
birthright citizenship for non citizens, for illegal aliens and temporary
vise holders. That will be the if he can get that.
I don't know if he will be able to, but
if he can, it will be the biggest victory I
(18:44):
think on the right when it comes to immigration. And
I don't even know since Eisenhower, it's a long time.
Speaker 2 (18:51):
Yeah, I find it hard to believe. I'm not a
constitutional scholar, but when I read the plane language the
fourteenth Amendment, it's hard for me to see how the
Court is going to side with the president. I understand
there are these other are these historical readings, historic historical
or historical historical? That is, at the time they were
talking about slaves, they weren't talking about immigrants. Today's immigration
(19:15):
is different now than it was then. Essentially didn't exist
back then. But to the degree the Supreme Court is
a political body, and I think all bodies are political
bodies to a degree when they have human beings on them,
especially those in the government process. Trump's legal team and
(19:35):
his administration have increasingly sort of picked fights with the
courts that it might not needed to have picked. And
so I think it's fair to say that if and
I'm using a lot of weasel words, if there was
sort of some goodwill before where it's like, oh, let's
give them the benefit of the doubt, I think some
(19:57):
of that's exhausted with all but the really hardcore conservatives
on the Supreme Court.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
Why is it because of the not listening to the
lower course decisions on border on deportations.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
I think so. Yeah, And remember Roberts. Justice Roberts took
that sort of extraordinary step of kind of rebuke might
be too strong a verb, but you know, sort of
telling Trump like, hey, you know, back off criticizing these
judges just for doing their jobs. I think that that
was notable. That having been said, I do think that
(20:34):
they are going to be able to get a number
of victories out of the court on immigration. Regarding you know,
the big case Kilmar Abrigo Garcia. The the Supreme Court
has already signified its discomfort in telling having the judicial
branch tell the executive branch, Hey, uh, we're going to
(20:56):
tell you how to conduct foreign policy now that this
guy is overseas. It's a really messy case. My conspiracy
minded hat and when I wear it makes me think
that maybe they chose this case for a reason, but
it's probably a little more organic. My guess is there
was an Ice agent in Maryland, in the Baltimore area
who knew Kilmar, who wanted to get him. And now
(21:19):
that there's you know, the.
Speaker 3 (21:20):
Trump regime, the Trump administration's back, they're like, okay, buddy,
we're gonna get you.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
And so they got him. They got Killmar in the system.
Now it's a question did someone actually know that there
was a deep a withhold on deporting him to El
Salvador or not. I'm not sure. But the bottom line
is is that he was deported to El Salvador unlawfully
or in violation of court order. And now here we
are right.
Speaker 1 (21:44):
I mean, it's just and this is I guess it's
a bigger conversation then we can afford. And I'm not
a legal brain either, but I just I think that
I think when they give the courts give these temporary
protections from deportation out of fear or intimidation, and then
that that that what would have caused fear for your
(22:06):
life has has ended. In the case of of of this,
of the of the Maryland man is this rival gang?
The rival gang doesn't exist anymore, So what is your
fear at a deportation anymore? And that's I mean predates this.
There were cases like in Honduras where there was an
earthquake and people were here for twenty something years out
(22:26):
of fear for their life, or an earthquake on a
temporary protector.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
So earthquaker was a hurricane Mitch.
Speaker 1 (22:32):
I was Hurricane Mitch. That was it? Yeah, but it
was twenty something years ago and they were still here
on a temporary protecting status over a hurricane from twenty
years ago, right.
Speaker 2 (22:41):
I mean, it just goes to show that a lot
of things, once once they're called temporary, really aren't temporary.
There is, of course, the media coverage angle of this.
The the a lot of people in mainstream media are
elighting some of the more complicating aspects of a Brago
Garcia's story. If the reports out of Tennessee are true,
(23:02):
where he was stopped driving a vehicle of a guy
who had been busted for human smuggling, and he had
a bunch of people in the car he wasn't related to,
who all gave the same address that he did. Like, well,
maybe we should look at whether or not the Fed's
(23:22):
got it right that this guy was engaged in.
Speaker 4 (23:27):
Unlawful activities if you, I mean, by the left making
him the face the poster boy of the perfect illegal
immigant who should never have been deported.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
If it goes left and there is you know, a
literal or figurative body in the closet, it's a real
problem for Democrats. It kind of undermines their entire argument
for any stopping any future deportations under President Trump. So
but overall, on illegal immigration, Trump has been more a
(24:00):
pretty big win overall successful by far.
Speaker 2 (24:03):
I mean, he's delivering on by large on what he said.
I haven't even said. I do understand that the civil
libertarian argument that you know, a court order is a
court order and you shouldn't violate it, even if I'm.
Speaker 1 (24:14):
Not yeah, I'm not I'm not making I'm not giving
I'm just saying. I'm saying as far as promises to voters,
go I think on immigration is probably one of the
biggest runaway successes. Inflation has certainly gone down. Despite what
I mean. You should live in the media. There's breadlines
out of everyone's door. Now let's go to tariff. Tariffs
(24:37):
are problem. Tariffs are what I don't understand, Mark, and
you are you. I pay attention to the news, but
you write the news. So maybe you can understand if
you listen to Peter Navarro, if you listen to the
Secretary of Commerce, and if you look at the Secretary
of Treasury, they all have different reasons of why we're
doing these tariffs. They all have different end goals for
(24:59):
why we're doing these tariffs. Okay, so if you listen
to and maybe I'm wrong, so correct me wrong. Record
of the Peter Navarro story is we're going to basically
a neoliberalism as we know it, and change the way
we do international economics and become named meticulals mercantile, mercantile
(25:20):
nation in one way or the other. If you listened
to best set the Secretary of the Treasury, it's to
end all these opposing tariffs on us. We'll have real
free trade except for China. China is its own thing,
and then if you listen to the Commerce Secretary, it's
somewhere in between, but his own kind of thing that
(25:41):
he's doing on his own. Why hasn't the administration seemed
to have one single narrative for the last three weeks?
Speaker 2 (25:49):
I touched on this to plug my own story in Axios,
in a story called Trump's Tariff Brain, Inside Trump's Tariff Brain.
The answer is all of the above. Donald Trump he
wants to do lots of things with tariffs. And if
you understand that, Donald Trump has been talking about other
countries have ripped us off for you know years. I
(26:09):
mean first he first gave us in a speech in
nineteen eighty seven, thirty eight years ago. Boy, now I
feel rilled he gave this.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
So he gave the speech at nineteen eighty seven, we're
talking about other nations are ripping us off. He didn't
quite say tariffs, but that's what he's talking about, negotiating
better trade deals.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
Understanding that, look at Trump as a guy who is
often or more often directionally right than his critics give
him credit for. Okay, So it's a very kind of
a very specific phrase I'm using there. And if you understand,
like the direction he wants to go. He wants to
(26:49):
go in the direction of more manufacturing. He wants to
go in the direction of a different trade deficit, a
more balanced trade deficit with other nations. He wants to
go in the direction of Ian government revenue from this
in part to pay for the tax cuts, so to speak,
pay for that he wants to extend. He wants to
have more manufacturing in the country. Those are all things
(27:10):
he wants to do. So all of those guys who
are out there speaking are sort of different avatars of him.
And the reality says Donald Trump hasn't made up his mind.
And Donald Trump has last guy in the room syndrome
as well. So he frequently falls victim to analysis paralysis
because he surrounds himself. And this is perhaps to his credit.
(27:35):
It certainly is the credit if you believe in like
open minded epistemology, like get acquiring information. That is, he
gets everyone's opinion in the room. The thing is, he
doesn't know when to stop and right or it takes
a while for him to kind of arrive at them.
So that's one. And then there's the last guy in
(27:55):
the room syndrome.
Speaker 3 (27:56):
So He's got all these different advisors who have these
different faces of sort of the tear and what they
could do, and he likes all of them.
Speaker 2 (28:03):
So I don't know this for a fact, but generally
I can totally see it where Howard Lutnik is in
there like hey, here's what we gotta do, like, oh yeah, great,
go out there, and he says it, and then that's true,
and then best's in They're like, hey, here's what we
gotta do, Like great, you go out there and you
do that. And this is what we're seeing. For those
(28:24):
of us who are accustomed.
Speaker 3 (28:25):
To Donald Trump and the sort of you know, are
able to understand that there's always gonna be a lot
of noise and you just have to focus on the
directional signal.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
It makes a lot more sense. The thing is is
the stock market doesn't work that way, right. He's approaching
this like a political campaign where he's never quite clear.
He likes to have leverage. It's all the sort of
now you see me, now you don't stuff. It's asymmetry
very good at that stock market hates that shit. And
so here we are.
Speaker 1 (28:53):
What I don't understand is and I send a message
song on you in the White House, and I said, this,
manufacturing is your main goal, and and it's important, it's
an important effort that we should be undertaking as a country,
but it is your main goal. There are there is
a lot of different hammers to use to nail that,
to nail that into the wall well, And I mentioned
(29:16):
this on this podcast. I wrote about this federal like
federal contracts. Make sure federal contracts are focused on restoring
like pharmaceuticals or military equipment or whatever. That part hasn't happened,
Like there's no, they're not. It's not a full uh
you know, full court press on to faces on every front.
(29:36):
It seems like it's just tariffs, and that makes it
confusing and people worrysome and also allowing people who have
stocks and in companies that are way overvalued to sit
there and deplete their stocks and to sell them and
to make sure that you know, blame the terrists for
it instead of some crappy companies that are well up
too much money on their hands and whatever. That's that's
(30:00):
whether their stocks are revalue, I should say to us.
But their stocks are revalued. That is all happening. And
he's allowing himself to do it, and it just seems
like it's a mess. And I saw that he wants
to reduce tariffs in China. Where is he right now?
Do we have tariffs on any country as there is there?
Speaker 2 (30:15):
We have the ten percent across the board tark. Yeah,
that we do have, and and technically we have one
hundred and forty five percent tariff on goods from China,
which is effectively, as one of the folks in his
economic team has pointed out to me, this is not
tariffs really we're talking about right now, this is a
trade embargo.
Speaker 1 (30:35):
Right.
Speaker 2 (30:35):
Wall Street Journal had an interesting story with an anecdote
as their lead, like there was this I didn't realize
that people import that we import eyelashes, And there's like
China sends us eyelashes. Now god knows where they came from.
But you know, someone.
Speaker 3 (30:53):
Spoke against President g and is now you know, an
eyelash donor or whatever.
Speaker 2 (30:57):
But there's this truck of eyelashes that's like stuck at
the Mexico border. Like we are, in effectively for a
lot of these goods, a trade embargo like zero trade.
I had reported the other day on Tuesday that when
Donald Trump met Monday with the heads of Walmart, Home
(31:23):
Depot and Target that what they privately told him was, hey,
we're looking at some empty shelves in as early as
two weeks. So there are these different messages they're getting
to him, and he is sort of reacting to it.
But generally speaking, here I'm sort of scooping myself. One
of the people I'd spoken to who who's spoken to
(31:46):
Trump with some regularity, you know, when the stock market
was doing all this stuff, I asked him like, well,
what's what's the present's mindset.
Speaker 3 (31:51):
They're like, oh, he's having a great time. I said yeah,
and I said yeah. He just keeps talking about the
deals they're gonna do. He's like Japan's coming in and yeah,
knobs coming in.
Speaker 2 (32:00):
You wouldn't believe what's going to happen with South Korea.
So he's sort of on cloud nine. And the portrayal
there is a little bit of a disconnect between what
a lot of people are seeing and certainly you know,
those people who have money in the stock market, but
his general sense right now is still again, actually this
way and we're in this you know, this is Trump's world.
(32:24):
We're all living in it right now. Where he's going
to be kind of fine tuning and real time testing
this stuff. But I think there's a long roundabout answer
to I think it was a question you posed, which
is this wasn't necessarily very well thought out in the implementation.
And I think this is an old man in a hurry.
(32:45):
He's wanted to do this since nineteen eighty seven at least. Okay,
he is now president for his second and final term.
And let's ignore Steve Man and saying he's gonna get
their term. Yeah, you know, he's almost eighty years old,
so he wants to do this stuff now.
Speaker 3 (33:02):
And let's face it, when I said he was more
often directionally right than his critics, you have him credit
for he's the only guy who's really come out and
made free trade an issue and said, hey, a lot
of the free trade has been bad as hollowed out
or manufacturing sector.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
You really didn't hear that in the Republican Party before
twenty fifteen, right, you just didn't. And he's the he's
the guy, right, Yeah, the good point. Yeah, there's a
great political.
Speaker 1 (33:29):
Six But since nineteen ninety six in Buchanan ran, it's
been though twenty or sixteen to twenty nineteen ninety six
to twenty sixteen was twenty years.
Speaker 3 (33:37):
Yeah, and he is the only guy, the only president
who's like, Okay, fuck it, you know you're talking about you.
Speaker 2 (33:45):
Know, the problem of the hammer or everything looks like
a nail. I mean, he just hit the glass. Yeah,
So we're there now. Whether it's going to work or not,
it is a big experiment and it is kind of
a shock to the system. But the reality is he
is the only present who's really given voice to this
problem and the only president who's really tried to solve it.
(34:05):
The question is is is solution Is the cure worse
than the sickness because one of the things his advisors
have said, and sorry, I'm I'll get this out, is
is that they view the American economy as a sick
patient and and it's in and it is in bad
need of medicine. And I in one of my conversations
(34:26):
with one of these people, said, well, yeah, that's true.
But you know, if you have cancer, they give you
a chemo very often, and chemotherapy is basically poison. That
boils down to this, you either are going to kill
the cancer or kill yourself. And so you have to
be careful administering the medicine of the poison in chemotherapy.
And what I wonder here is is did Trump just
(34:49):
come in and just inject a whole bunch of I
don't know, rat poison or whatever into this and we're
going to see or maybe not?
Speaker 1 (34:56):
Uhh, I mean, I mean, and you have some headlines
with some companies and and they're reassuring jobs in America.
There's a lots to live on for those headlines. To
Let's ask two questions. One, what is this? What does
this do for Republicans looking at twenty twenty six?
Speaker 2 (35:12):
How you're looking tough? I have not been talking to
Republicans much, but man, in our in our elections are
our elections generally break on the fault line of a
division of desire and terror right right and anger and love.
(35:34):
There's not a lot of love out there, so let's
just throw that out. So the gasoline that powers the
engines of our elections is anger, and the left is angry.
They're out there protesting Tesla, you know. So I see
more energy, and I understand, with respect to Saint Paul,
(35:55):
that I see through a glass darkly that I don't
understand the tire picture on Donald the whole nation, but
the energy looks like it's on on the left when
you look at the fact that the stock market is
not doing so well, the dollar is deflating, is devaluing,
the IMF is cutting growth rate forecasts of the United States.
Home sales are starting to decline. And Donald Trump, through
(36:18):
implementing these tariffs in such a way, made this his economy.
It's really gonna be difficult for him to sit around
and blame Biden.
Speaker 1 (36:25):
All the Republicans have well blue pass expectations on fundraising numbers,
and there were was good economic indicators before Liberation Day.
But I mean, we'll see.
Speaker 2 (36:36):
I mean the market, the market really wants. The market
is almost like, uh, you know, an abused person who
just wants a little bit of good news.
Speaker 3 (36:46):
Like literally, where Donald Trump gives a little bit of
good news, it's like and the market shoots back and
then it comes back down. So uh, I don't know
how long that's gonna last, but there is still some
sort of pent up goodwill in the market. Where if
there is a more I think, if there's a more cohesive, intelligible, predictable,
(37:07):
reliable presentation of where we're going to go and how
we're going to get there that if you were to
ask me this question of how Republicans are feeling, my
answer might change. But right now I think things favor
Democrats more.
Speaker 1 (37:23):
Yeah, well, okay, in terms of prompt My last question,
in terms of promises to his voters, things he campaigned on,
and what he's achieved. How would you grade Trump's first
one hundred days, not solely on the success or how
it's looking, but what he promised and then what he's
been delivered.
Speaker 2 (37:37):
I mean, from all the supporters I know of his
and the people who didn't vote for him, who support him,
they're very happy, like because, as they pointed out, there's
a possibility that a majority or a plurality of his
voters aren't real stock market people. So I don't really
give a shit about a lot of stuff I just
talked about there. They voted for him because of immigration
(37:57):
and attitude and.
Speaker 1 (38:00):
Demograph poles is eighteen to twenty one year olds.
Speaker 2 (38:03):
What's that.
Speaker 1 (38:04):
Trump's best demographic in the latest Yale poll is eighteen
to twenty one year olds.
Speaker 2 (38:09):
The Harvard David Sure found too. That's the Harvard poll
that John Delavelpie had released showed that he was hamorrhaging
support of younger people.
Speaker 1 (38:20):
That was the Harvard Harris pol I think, so, I
know it's Harvard.
Speaker 2 (38:23):
I don't know if it's Harvard Harris.
Speaker 1 (38:24):
Yeah, Harvard Harris poles are terrible. And I'm just gonna
tell you like but no, no, no, I take polsters like
ignore Harvard Harris is a joke of bolster, just my
own personal opinion. I never listened to them. But the
Yale poll, I think is back. They are. They're a
joke of pual So they do a terrible job each
and every time. The Yale poll is decent. The Pew
(38:45):
Pearl poll is very good, it's very thorough, but it's
I mean, it's terrible for Trump. It was his worst
poll by far. The NBC NBC Post pole that was good,
The Washington Post pole was decent. So he's had some
decent ones. I think that none of time is settled
to really see what the tariff situation is looking like.
But the problem we have a Trump as far as
(39:06):
as far as like the Democrats have with Trump is
there's such a little elasticity, like he's never going to
get to Joe Biden or George W. Bush numbers into
the twenties because he can't because his base that loves
him is so fervently committed, and the.
Speaker 2 (39:20):
It's kind of like a thirty five percent floor. Basically,
it's like, yeah.
Speaker 1 (39:23):
It's in the mid thirties percent floor and the ceiling
is fifty two percent, and we just live in that
fifteen percent range. Wherever we go. He'll never be never
have Joe Biden positive numbers, He'll never have Joe Biden
negative numbers, will never have Bush positive numbers, and have
Bush negative numbers. And so we live in this world
where he's just kind of stuck and everyone has a
strong opinion of him. But the fact that eighteen to
(39:45):
twenty one year olds and both the David Short data
on the election and then the NBA and then the
Yale pole is pretty wild. And it might be because
one they don't have stocks and two because it's you know,
I like the attitude.
Speaker 2 (39:57):
Oh yeah, I think it's a big part of it.
I don't think the the left has really helped its case,
especially among young men, that that horse has been beaten
and kicked to death. The other issue, I think that
Republicans need to think about, which you saw a play
out in Wisconsin, is that the Trump machine without Trump
is not much of a machine, like he activates certain
voters right.
Speaker 1 (40:18):
Well, seniors are increasingly becoming democratic as baby boomer like
you time when they're like, what happened to seniors? Because
the seniors that live in your head have died, Like
you're not willing to admit that, but you're thinking of
your grandparents who aren't alive anymore, and you're not understanding,
like Archie Bunker is not the senior citizen, he's dead.
Meathead is the senior citizen. Jane Fond is a senior citizen,
(40:42):
Like these are the senior citizens. Rosie o'donald is a
senior A meathead? No, but those are, But those are
senior citizens now. They are not the British generation or
Joe Biden's generation. I mean there are a few of
those left people up, but not many. They are overwhelmingly
the counter culture.
Speaker 2 (40:58):
Yeah, as a Florida based guy, we experienced that quite clearly.
We used to have, especially in South Florida, Southeast Florida,
what we would call the condo commandos. These are these
older FDR voters who were just reliably blue, and it's
what kept Florida bloom at first, and then with the
wave of more Republicans, we kept at purple. Now we're
(41:21):
just importing Republican super voters.
Speaker 1 (41:23):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I really where we have to go.
But on a really quick story, my grandfather grew up
from from Lowie side of Manhattan and Brooklyn. His whole life,
almost all his friends were Jewish, and those typical New
York Liberal Democratic Jewish like almost like a cartoon of
what a Jewish voter from New York's politics are like.
And I remember the Bloomberg election at five, is my
(41:44):
first election I could get vote in earsthing and I said,
I was like, oh, yeah, I'm voting for Bloomberg, you know,
as a Republican. And his friends said, oh, I voted
for Bloomberg as a Democrat. And I said, no, you didn't.
You voted No, he's not a Democrat as a Republican.
Literally twenty minutes screaming over the dining room table. This man,
He's like, I never voted for a Republican in my life.
I wouldn't vote. I voted for him as a Democrat.
I'm like he would not admit to his own self
(42:07):
that it was possibly could vote for a Republican. So yeah,
I know those voters very well. But most of them
have suns, you know, gone to their great rust. So
that is the eternal rust. So that is what Uh,
that's what people do. Mark, thank you so much. We're
gonna end up. Mark, thank you for being on this podcast.
Speaker 2 (42:25):
Note yes, yes, sir, that was great.
Speaker 1 (42:27):
Where people go to read your stuff.
Speaker 2 (42:29):
Axidos dot com. Uh, and I'm on Twitter at Mark A. Caputo.
It's Mark with the C marc Antonio. Now, Mark tell
you Mark Antonio is technically my first name. Okay, one word.
Speaker 1 (42:41):
Well, thank you so much. Mark. I'll speak to you soon.
Speaker 2 (42:44):
Appreciate you. Man.
Speaker 1 (42:45):
You're listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Grodowsky.
We'll be right back. This is the ask Me Anything
segment of the podcast, where you guys can send me
any kinds of questions you want and I'm depending on
those questions. Send them my way and let me I'll
tell you if I can find out any information and
give you the data behind what you're worried about. You
(43:05):
could email me at ryanat Numbers Game podcast dot com
numbers is plural. Ryan at Numbers gamepodcast dot com question
this week, do we think that AOC will be the
Democratic nominee in twenty twenty eight? I don't know, is
the simple short of it. No one knows. I will
say two things. One, she's raising a lot of money,
and she has her face in the media. And that's
(43:26):
what a lot of people assume is the answer is
who they've seen the most. Like Gavin Newsom's face is
always in the media, you will assume it means he
must be the nominee. What you need to look at, though,
and what a smart analysis of elections look like, is
where is the primary process going to begin in twenty
twenty eight. If it begins in Iowa and New Hampshire
as it had for one hundred years, they are more
(43:50):
open to more progressive candidates. They help Barack Obama, they
help Bernie Sanders, those kinds of states. If the election
begins in South Carolina, that is a much more and
we're a different electorate. It's black primarily, but it's a
majority of black and the Democratic primary and it is
much more conservative both socially and economically. They are not
down hardcore progressive voters. So if the party primary starts
(44:14):
in the Deep South and in specially in South Carolina,
it's a primary process looking to try to nominate a moderate,
and that's what we'll probably see. Anyway, we're three years away,
so we'll find out. Ben Thank you Social listeners podcast.
Please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio Apple podcast. Wherever
you listen to your podcast, give me a five star
review if you feel generous, Thank you so much. Listen
(44:36):
on Thursday and see it later this week.
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