May 22, 2025 • 41 mins
In this episode of 'It's a Numbers Game,' Ryan delves into the latest polling data surrounding Donald Trump, the political landscape in New York, and the shifting sentiments among voters as the 2026 election approaches. He discusses the implications of recent polls, the surprising support for Trump among various demographics, and the potential impact of immigration and social issues on voter behavior. Additionally, Ryan shares a tantalizing piece of gossip from Washington D.C. It's a Numbers Game is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Monday & Thursday.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Grodski. I
am your host. Thank you all for being here again
this week. This week is a solo episode because this
is a number Game podcast and there was a ton
of data that came out this week, and I thought,
let's have a very autistic episode starring just me where
I can give you everything that you're here for, and
(00:27):
then we'll presume with a guest come next week. But
there's three topics I want to get to on today's episode,
which is the Trump whole bounce, what is going on
in New York State that I think is super interesting,
and then data that came out about the twenty twenty
four election that is very, very vital. So let's start
though with the Trump bounce. For those who don't know now,
(00:51):
a month ago, right the media was loving it because
Trump's numbers were down double digits in a number of
very highly accredited public holes. Public polls are not usually
as good as private polls, but they make cross tabs available,
they work with media outlets, they get a lot of coverage.
So these polls were coming out showing Trump's numbers in
(01:12):
the dumps. It was right after Liberation Day and fears
of recession were at a huge high, and since then,
well we haven't had a recession. Actually, the numbers from
the economy are doing pretty good. There was a reduction
in prices in wholesale prices, wages are up over three percent,
inflation is steady. Things are going well for the economy.
(01:35):
The economy is fairly strong, and this has been very
good news for Donald Trump. So I looked at the
seven polls that had come out recently that also came
out a month ago. They are Insider Advantage, Morning Consult,
the Economists, the Daily Mail, who James Johnson, who came
on this podcast a couple weeks ago, RMG Research, Quantus,
(01:59):
and Emerson and Quantas was the third most accurate polster
of the twenty twenty four election cycle, and I believe
Insider Advantage was the second, and Emerson was probably the fourth.
So highly accredited polling firms, but not the type of
polling firms that get huge coverage like The New York
Times does, or like NBC News does or whatnot, but
(02:19):
good polls. Right, their overall net approval for Donald Trump
in on four thirty was about negative four three point
six Right, The Economist and the Daily Mail having double
digit losses, and then RMG Research being at zero, Emerson
being plus two instead of Vanage being plus two, but
overall negative four. If you look at the average of
(02:41):
those of those seven polling firms. Now Trump has a
one point approval rating net approval rating that means people
you know, if the providing is fifty forty nine percent
the negative is forty eight percent right, and favorable rating
of one point. He grew about four point one points
in favorability over the last month. That is substantial. I
(03:03):
did the deep dives in all the cross steps that
were publicly available to me. A big part of the
bump seems to be coming from one man men across
the board, which would make sense if men felt like
a recession was happening at any time, that it would
be important to sit there into that they would have
(03:24):
fears and they'd have worries, and that maybe their numbers
would go down among men, but their backup Republicans are
back up men across every racial line, by the way,
saw a bounce which was very very important. But interestingly enough,
the number among Democrats had increased, specifically minority Democrats, and
what I wonder were those pollsters tracking black men and
(03:50):
Hispanic men who are still Democrats, but they voted for Trump,
and they were the ones having quasi buyers remorse for
a period of time, and now they're back on the
train because the recession that was the media said was
going to happen just never happened. I also wonder, and
this is part of my analyst media brain working, because
(04:15):
the news of Joe Biden's health and the book that
had come out with Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson called
Original Sin was out. I wonder if the conversation being
so heavily about Joe Biden is now feeding into people's
like psyche. Oh yeah, this guy was in charge for
four years and he was not only wrecking the economy
(04:38):
causing runaway inflation the egg prices were going up, but
also he was not mentally acute or had mental decline.
According to some people, he could have had cancer. This
entire time. Some doctors were on television sitting there and saying,
there's no way this cancer diagnosis is recent. I don't know.
(04:58):
I'm not a doctor. I barely pass high school biology.
But this is I think part of the narrative because
historically in the twenty sixteen election, in the twenty twenty election,
and in the twenty twenty four election, when the focus
has not been on Trump, when that heavy media obsession
and gaze has not been so focused on Donald Trump
(05:21):
to the point that they're wondering, if you know how
many scoops of ice from he eats? Does he have
the channel of the apes fighting? This was an old
news headline. But when that focus is not on him
to a ridiculous standpoint where he's, you know, a fascist
who's going to end the world, people generally start thinking
favorably of him. There's an unhealthy news cycle. So I
think that that is when that is dimmed. Because we're
(05:43):
focusing on Joe Biden's health so much, and the recession
that was supposed to happen never did happen. Maybe people's
feelings on Trump relaxed because the media fears never amounted
to anything. That's what I think. If Trump can now
come out in the next few weeks with a deal,
a trade deal, because he's got a couple I guess
(06:05):
in the works of the EU and several other countries,
and if he's able to maybe broke or some kind
of peace deal with either Iran or slow one of
the wars down. Not that I don't think Americans cared
that much about it, but it would be a nice
news cycle if either the Ukraine or Israel stop fighting.
That would be more positive praise in his direction. And
(06:28):
improve upon it at a critical time. We'll see. But
overall for Trump right now, he's had a very very
good couple of weeks. Republicans need this improvement as they
get their tax bill done, as they get the budget passed,
and all the infighting around it kind of is very
(06:48):
intense over spending limits and assault deductions and all the
rest of it, and no tax on tip. But as
they get those things through the finish line, to sit
there and try to go to middle class voters, working
class voters and say and senior citizens and say, look
what we delivered for you, Please reelect us give us
the House majority again, which is on the tipping point
a number of polls. He needs not to seem like
(07:12):
an essential threat. He needs people to be liking the
job that he's doing, and right now they are, so
this is a big win for him. The other thing
that I wanted to talk about there was another poll
that didn't get any publicity whatsoever that I thought was
very interesting. It came out of Siena College. Sana College
is a college in upstate New York. Never been there,
but they do work with The New York Times a
(07:33):
lot during the presidential cycles. They're considered a very accurate polster.
I think they have got an A rating by most analysts.
They produced a report on the election coming up for
governor that wasn't very interesting. But in the election underneath,
the election of vote them was all primary stuff. So
Stephanic versus Lawlor for the Republican side and Kathy Helkel
(07:55):
for the election. None of it was interesting. The interesting thing, though,
was when and they asked them, as the New Yorkers,
how they feel on several issues. Right, so like New
Yorkers still hate congestion pricing, that didn't change. But the
issues that were very interesting was this. They asked New
York State residents right, New York State, Liberal Democratic state
New York State residents if the state government under Governor
(08:20):
Kathy Hochel should be assisting the Trump administration in deporting
illegal immigrants. A plurality of New Yorkers said yes. Forty
five percent of New Yorkers said that the state of
New York under Governor Kathy Hochel should be working with
Donald Trump to deport illegal immigrants. Thirty eight percent said no,
(08:44):
they shouldn't. Twelve percent said they were somewhere in the middle,
they didn't know how they felt about it. The interesting
thing was not only was it basically universally yes among Republicans,
twenty five percent of Democrats said they should be working
with Trump to deported league immigrants, and a majority of
(09:04):
Independence fifty one percent of Independence said yes. Other groups
that had a huge number men fifty percent, not shocking,
but women women were forty one forty three. They were
evenly split, which says a lot. They also had almost
majority of Union members. They had forty percent of residents
(09:24):
of New York City. New York City I think went
thirty percent for Trump, so ten points more than voted
for him wanted his deportation to happen. Fifty percent of
white residents, twenty seven percent of blacks, and among Hispanics
it was tied. It was forty one forty three, which
is tied in the marginal error, but forty one forty
(09:45):
three said yes. Forty one percent of Latinos. This is
once again wall two wall negative mainstream news coverage of
the Maryland Man, of innocent people accidentally being arrested, of
you know, and fear, and white liberals losing their mind
each and every single day, and all the ethnic lobby
coming out and sitting there and saying this is terrorism.
(10:08):
This is I think. Governor Mike Waltz compared ICE agents
to the Gestapo very very much, showing how much he
supports law enforcement. Among Catholics in New York State, it
was fifty four percent Jews. It was forty seven to
forty two. They were one of the most liberal groups
in New York, although the Hasidics and Orthodox are not.
(10:29):
But the majority population though is pretty liberal. Protestants it
was fifty five percent, fifty percent of middle income earners.
That is wild. This is New York State. The other part,
the other question that there was was would you see
support a total outright ban on transgender students playing in
(10:54):
any school and any girls' sport, transgender women being biological
and playing in girl sports, a total ban in every school.
Would you want the school districts to decide individually or
would you want a total support like every school has
to allow transgender, transgender girls biological men to play in
(11:16):
girls sports. Right, this is what New York residents said.
Forty six percent of New York residents wanted a full
outright ban. They didn't want individual districts to decide. They
wanted a straightforward ban, including a third of Democrats, fifty
four percent of independence, fifty percent of men, forty four
(11:40):
percent of women, which is the biggest plurality of that
group of women. Right, A plurality of Democrats set a
full outright ban. A third of Democrats that was higher
than any other category, A third right, forty percent of
people in New York City, which was the plurality of
any of the other categories. Other groups, A majority of
(12:01):
the people in the suburbs, a majority of the people
in upstate, forty three percent of black residents. This was
a majority of Catholics, a majority of Protestants, a plurality
of Jews. I'm looking at the numbers right now. That
is incredible in my mind. And here's why it is incredible.
Those two questions in particular, New York State moved the
(12:24):
most right of any state in the country in the
last election. I have lived in New York basically my
entire life. I know the state very well, I know
residents very well. It is not that New York State
is all of a sudden going to be a swing state,
although I do believe it will continue to move several
points to the right. If you look at all the
(12:44):
other questions they asked about free lunches, about like more
spending on social welfare policies, New Yorkers are overwhelmingly for
it right. They have a left wing center left access
to them that high lights why they vote so liberally. However,
a big, big caveat is on these issues that people
(13:08):
most associate with failed governance by the Democratic Party. Even
twenty five to thirty percent of Democrats are willing to
balk at them. A huge percentage of minorities are willing
to sit there and say no. Catholics, who historically were
very Democratic right, there's a lot of Hispanics in the
Catholic Church in New York, but there's also a lot
(13:29):
of ethnic Whites in the Catholic Church. New York Union members.
These are people that should never be aligning with the
Republican Party and on these issues that are the most
identifiable with a single party and their governance. You have
overwhelming numbers on the side of the Conservatives, which explains
(13:52):
why these overall trends of working class, people, of middle class,
people of some younger people of ethnic minorities are moving
away from the Democratic Party even though the despite they
probably agree with them on most economic issues. They feel
uncomfortable with mass immigration, they feel uncomfortable with the illegal immigration,
(14:13):
They feel uncomfortable with the transgender sports issue. There was
another poll that came out earlier today. I'm recording this
on Wednesday for the Thursday episode. It was from Wisconsin,
and they asked would you support a full deportation of
illegal immigrants? And sixty six percent said yes. This is
after hyperbolic reactions from Democrats giving worst case scenarios over
(14:38):
and over and over again, and yet Joe Biden so
broke the back of the American people when it comes
to the issue immigration. They do not care. The sympathy
bank is completely empty. And there is something in our
culture called how do I put this toxic empathy where
(14:58):
you are to feel bad for someone who is doing
you harm. That has been behind the main driver of
many of our political decisions in our culture, which had
been very bad for a very long time, and it
was surrounding our immigration choices for a while, or allowing
our immigration laws to be skirted for a while. That
is completely run dry, so very interesting. If the Democratic
(15:22):
Party continues to be associated with these bad governing policies,
if they don't make an abrupt u turn like the
Labor Party, as we mentioned in the last episode about
what's going on in England right now, then I would
expect places like New Jersey, California, and New York where
these issues are front and center because Democrats refuse to
change ways on it, to be moving more of their
(15:44):
voters to the right. Maybe we'll make California or New
York swing state. Maybe we'll make a few more distress competitive.
It absolutely will be making New Jersey a swing state.
And I think that's very interesting. There's one more data
stuff that I want to talk about with you guys.
It is a blockbuster. Not going to want to miss it.
Stay tuned for these messages. All right, we are back.
(16:06):
And the last thing that I wanted to bring up
to you as far as the data goes, as far
as my autistic my autistic marathon goes, is there is
I know the election was like, you know, months and
months ago, and everyone's kind of passed it. But there
is three organizations that do post election reviews that are
(16:27):
super insightful for describing and analyzing what actually happened, what
actually went through. I mean, the exit polls came out,
but like the exit polls are wrong most of the time.
So there's three organizations. There's David Shore, who is, you know,
very smart, but I think he's a liberal. I don't
think he wants to be on with the Beeber guy,
but who knows. I'm a big fan still. I think
that he's a genius. His stuff came out a month ago.
(16:47):
That's where I said that seventy five per according to
his analysis, seventy five percent of eighteen to twenty one
year old white men in this country voted for Trump.
It was the large group that vote of a Trump
of any demographic. That was his data that came in
a few months ago. Then there's the Pew Research Center.
(17:08):
It's coming out in a few weeks to months. I'm
looking forward to that. I will talk about that. I
know everyone will be done with it by that point,
but I will talk about it because I can't get
enough and then the last is an organization called Catalyst.
Now they have been doing this since twenty twelve and
they are out with their report. It came out on Monday.
It is a blockbuster and it breaks apart a lot
(17:30):
of what Democrats have excused for Kamala Harris's loss. So
there's six points I want to go through. The first
being Democrats said that they had a turnout problem. Right,
you hear this over and over and over again. Oh,
if Omar Billigs turned out, they would have he would
have won. He would have won. Sure, So that was incorrect.
What the Catalyst information says is that not only was turnout, yes,
(17:53):
turnout was lower nationwide, but turnout was higher in the
swing states. So he they you have the turnoff that
they wanted in swing states. The swing state participation rate
was over seventy percent, which was higher than the sixty
four percent nationwide. So there was this excessive higher amount
(18:14):
of turnout in places like Georgia and Arizona and Nevada
where they wanted to have massive turnout. They got there,
but it didn't matter because Trump had won over persuasion.
People wanted him because they were persuaded to vote for
him and they were not persuaded to vote for Kamalo. Secondly,
turnout wasn't the same everywhere. This is something that Democrats
(18:36):
are right about, but it's not super coherent. Turnout was
down nationwide from twenty twenty to twenty twenty four, right,
but it wasn't even across the board. Among white voters,
it was down one percent. Among blacks, it was down
five point six percent, among Latinos three percent, and among
(18:56):
Asians six point seven percent. When you go into the
Swing States, however, black turnout was down one point six percent,
among black men two percent. Now, I want you to
go back to old media interviews in your head if
you remember them. Like there's Van Jones who was on
CNN with a few times and he was a very
(19:17):
nice person. I'm not behind the scenes, gentlemen, but he
would say all the time that there is this push
to get black men to support kamal law, to get
the first woman across the finish line. The Charlemagne, the
God did the same exact thing. They were all sitting
there and saying there's this push to get black man.
We're gonna get black men, We're gonna get black men.
(19:38):
Didn't get black men In fact, in swing states, even
where they did the souls, the polls everything, black male
participation dropped two percent, But guess what black female participation
dropped as well. Black female participation dropped by one percent
in swing states. Now, aside from Wisconsin, one percent wouldn't
have made up the difference. I don't e think what
(19:58):
blackmen make up ten percent to make one percent, So
it doesn't really matter. Black women weren't that interested in
Kamala either. The narrative that Black Americans were not sold
on Kammala as like being a brown a glass of shatterer,
the same way they were over Obama. Let's say it's
true Trump mentioned it, was called a racist for it,
(20:18):
but even like Janet Jackson was saying it, people were
saying it all over the all over that there was
a large percentage of Black America who were not sold
that she was part of their community and they were
not needing to go vote for her. White support was
up one point five percent, but it was mostly driven
by white women. White women did show up in big numbers,
it was up for white men as well. Latinos showed
(20:39):
up and increased numbers as well. Okay, that's that's that's important.
Second point of the entire thing, the racial breakdown, because
the white number had decreased the lowest amount nationwide and
increased the highest in swing states, was unchanged from twenty twenty.
Now there's this constant notion that, oh, you know, whites
(21:01):
are decreasing in every electorate. Didn't happen in twenty twenty.
It didn't happen in twenty sixteen, Monch either. It was
basically the same in twenty sixteen, but it'd not been
in twenty twenty four. But the one thing that did
happen with the racial and an education breakdown that is
extremely important is for the very first time ever as
(21:21):
far as I can go back, and this is especially
of the Catalyst research, non college educated whites were no
longer the largest voting block in the Democratic coalition. They
have been surpassed by college educated whites. Believe it or not,
even though the spokespeople for the Democratic Party absolutely hate
(21:42):
non college educated white people and trash talk them constantly.
They were still about a third of all Kamala voters,
but they were almost forty percent. They were thirty seven
percent of all guidance supporters versus twenty four percent sorry
Biden Obama twenty twelve, they were almost They were thirty
(22:03):
seven percent of all Obama voters and only thirty one
percent of all Comma voters. Kamala and the Democratic Party,
because of their aggressive attacks against working class white people,
have sheed twenty percent of their non college educated white
voting base, twenty percent of the largest single demographic in
(22:26):
the country. So while they increase their numbers among college
educated whites and lost a lot of non college educated whites,
they've also lost a lot of black support over time
because of declining participation rates, especially going back to Obama.
And they're stagnant with the Latinos because as even the
Latinos are growing in population, they are not increasing their
(22:47):
size and support for the Democratic Party. It's gotten done
significantly since Obama. One other caveat that I thought was
really really interesting, twenty percent of people who voted for
Trump were non white. That is the biggest single Republican
candidacy ever as far as a minority constituency, one in five.
That's never happened before, not even for George W. Bush.
(23:09):
It is it is the multi racial working class that
a lot of people have sat there and talked about okay.
Third point, there is this big notion that like, white
women are the end of the world, and they're all Karens.
This is an ocean among like the right, it's all
white women who are you know, the ones pushing all
the progressive agenda and they are pushing the Democratic Party
(23:30):
to the left. White women, however, voted more for Trump
in this election than they voted for him in the
last election. Trump won white women in this country. I
fifty two to forty eight. We got the catalyst, probably
gets rid of all the third party things, so they
make it even fifty to fifty fifty two forty eight.
(23:53):
Among college educated white women, Trump actually improved by one
point from twenty twenty. He actually did better among college
educated white women. After I don't know how many times
I was on the CNN panel hearing about fascism and
abortion rights and abortion rights and abortion rights and these
were going to move all these women over. He did
one point better. All of that rhetoric was nonsense. All
(24:18):
of that rhetoric was complete and total nonsense. Among white men.
Among white men without a college degree, Harris only got
thirty percent of the vote. Now think about it, white
men are white people are about sixty percent of the country.
White men are thirty percent White to a college degree
of twenty percent is the single largest block. Maybe white
women without a college degree are also similar, but a
(24:39):
twenty percent one in five voters. They've lost twenty percent
of their support, more than twenty percent of their support
with that voting base since twenty twelve, super significant in
the white vote and why the white vote has The
white vote has been basically flat though for the last
couple of election cycles, at forty two percent support for
demrik Rats. And that is because college college educated whites
(25:03):
have typically been moving to the left, although in this
last election they moved to the right. White men with
a college degree moved six points to the right. I know,
I'm three on a lot of numbers. I will try
to rein it back and get back to the narrative. Okay,
minority men, this is where the popular vote win happened, right,
(25:23):
It wasn't just I mean, making a Republican president is
like baking a cake. The batter is the white vote.
You can't win with if you don't get large sport
with the white vote. The minority vote is the cream
filling the the I don't know what are you put
on a cake? Everything, all the trimmings is the minority vote.
(25:45):
You can have a cake, but you can't have the
trimmings about the minority vote. Okay, So that's the popular
vote win. Among black men, ninety five percent of whom
voted for Barack Obama, almost one hundred percent universe. So
ninety percent of Black men vote for Barack Obama. Nine
percent voted for Kamala Harris inde nine percent. Among battleground
(26:10):
Black voters it was eighty four. So they did do
a better job in the battlegrounds where they spent more resources.
But in the nation as a whole, seventy nine percent.
If it's seventy nine percent, nation went as a whole,
and you were taking out place like Georgia and North Carolina,
in other places like Mississippi, Alabama, probably Texas as a
decent black population. You're talking about, you know, New York.
(26:33):
It's probably you know, maybe a third. Trump probably got
a third of the black vote. If you take out
that portion among black women, that vote was stagnant, That
vote is very hardly cemented. It was ninety percent of
the Black women voted for Trump this time ninety percent
voted last time. Maybe he went maybe one by half
a point or less than half a point, but it
wasn't significant. Black men, though, it is a gigantic drop
(26:58):
ninety five to seventy nine among black women from twenty
twelve overs it's a seven point drop, but among black
men sixteen points. It is substantial. Among black men under
the age of thirty, it's seventy five percent. One in
four Black men under the age of thirty voted for
(27:20):
Donald Trump. That is not a small, insignificant, minor group
of people. That is not a tiny fraction of a coalition.
That's one in four of the Democratic Party's base. Among
Black women under thirty, it was eighty eight percent. So
(27:41):
it was so younger black people in general, but mostly
younger Black men, one in four versus go back twenty
years ago, go back ten years ago to Barack Obama,
it was like one in twenty five, we're voting four
for the Republican. Now it's one in four. This is
(28:01):
a crazy, crazy, crazy shift. Okay, go to latinos now,
because this is wild. Trump won. This is the second
time that has been confirmed. But this is this proves it,
This proves it to be true. Trump won Latino men.
I think George W. Bush may have won it, but
the exit polling was really really bad at the time,
so you can't really trust it. But Trump won Latino
(28:22):
men by six points. That is insane. He only lost
the over all Latino vote by eight. This is a group.
Once again. Hillary won them by forty in the overall
head to head according to catalysts, she won them seventy thirty.
Harris won them fifty four to forty six. And the
(28:44):
craziest thing was they asked them across the ages. They said,
among ages, right, how old are you? How are you voting?
Among the ages, young Latinos, millennial Latinos, zoomer Latinos, fifty
seven percent voted for Harris. It dips down to fifty
two or Gen xers and early boomers, and then goes
back up to fifty seven. When you get to late Jane, sorry,
(29:07):
late boomers and silent generation. So old Latinos and young
Latinos at fifty seven all the middle of fifty two.
What does that show you? That shows you that the reconfiguration,
the realignment of minorities is universal. Now, this isn't true
for black voters. Black voters. There is a substantial drop
(29:28):
when you get younger, right, you go to older Black voters,
it's still over ninety percent. They're immovable. The only way
Republicans will win those voters they can't. I'm just gonna
say something else, but they can't. Those voters will be
Democrats of the day they die. It is the all.
It is their natural born inheritance. There is no moving
older Black voters. We can just give up on trying
(29:48):
to whoever we have is all we're going to have.
Of the older group, But the younger group, it's like
a thirteen point overall drop when you include men and women, right, Latinos,
it's across the board. The only group that is getting
substantially more democratic as the younger are Asians. And I
want to it to Asians. In one second, among Asians
(30:09):
still democratic support for among Asians among for Barack Obama
twenty twelve, seventy one percent, support for Kamala Harris twenty
twenty four fifty five percent, another sixteen point drop. This
is a male revolution, it's a male driven revolution. So
those are the important things that it's the racial breakdown
(30:30):
I think is very important. It does substantiate shores earlier conversation.
It's substantially is what we thought that this was a
male dominated movement and that the women are moving. But
it is. But you have to go with the context
of it's not all white women. In fact, the majority
of white women's still voter for Republicans, stale voter for
Donald Trump, and there is increased support among non white
(30:53):
women who are not black. Black women are just immovable
in college educated women, college educated white women right. Other
still moved towards Trump, although they gave the majority of
their support to Kamala Harris let's I'm gonna, I'm gonna,
I'm gonna land this plane very soon. I promised, stick
with me if you're still with me. Right. They gave
a demographic a demographic breakdown the only group two point
(31:16):
two things one for the first time in my lifetime,
first time Catalysts ever seen this. Not my lifetime, I'm
kind of old now, but first time the Catalyst has
reported this. Publicans won non college educated voters by double digits,
first time ever. Right, huge among non college educated whites. Overall,
(31:39):
they won them by twenty eight points. That's the same
number he won them by in twenty sixteen. This is
a general movement among a cementing of that base, non
college educated white voters that you have to have to
have to hear this point. It is so essential on
(32:00):
college educated white voters were the only group in America demographically,
education and race base right to give a majority of
their support for Donald Trump. College educated whites didn't, Blacks
didn't of any college education, Latinos didn't, Asians didn't, others didn't.
(32:20):
It was solely, solely based on the vote of the
non college educated white that gave a majority of their
support to Donald Trump. I say that not because I
want to emphasize that one group is better than the
other or more loyal than the other. I want to
say that because when we have conversations around what can
(32:41):
the Republican Party do more for black voters or Latino voters,
or this group or that group, or women or whatnot,
I think it's very important to understand and to remind
ourselves who is bringing home the votes to get a
Republican elected. It is non college educated white voters. What
is the Trump administration? What are Republicans? Congressional Republicans are they?
(33:04):
What are the Republican governors? What are they doing for them?
For all the analysts dribble, we have to hear constantly
about what are we doing to sit there and shed
one percentage more among black women? What are we doing
to deliver support for our voters, whether that be tax cuts,
whether that be opioid relief because their population has been
(33:27):
deficit with the opioid effect, pro family stuff. What are
we doing for those voters on all those issues? That
should be the question Republicans should take from this as Wow,
these are the only will give us a majority support?
What are we doing for them? Has to be emphasized. Okay,
landing the plane once again, back to the age range thing.
Kamala Harris lost support among every single age range in
(33:52):
the country. I had said this a while ago, that
these polls were coming out New York Times, Sienna, especially
where Harris seniors by like twenty points in Pennsylvania and
Wisconsin and she was going to win the senior vote.
The number of polls that said she was going to
win the senior vote were were out of control. They
were out of control. They were completely insane, and I
(34:13):
didn't believe it for a second. Turns out it wasn't true.
Senior citizens voted majority for Trump and actually increased their
support for Donald Trump among Trump also won every age
range of white voters. White voters between the age of
eighteen to twenty nine voted for Trump by two points.
This was a group that voted for Joe Biden. They
(34:33):
had moved eight points to the right for Donald Trump.
This is once again it goes back to what the
David Shore was saying, where he said young people under
twenty one who had lived during the worst of COVID
were the most radical right wing. So maybe he was
onto something right there. Double digit support and swing for
Trump came from every bracket of Latino voters, over twenty
(34:53):
points among young Latinos, double digits among Black voters under
the age of forty five, and and a twenty point
margin a twenty point swaying towards Trump among Asians in
that category. That's also very important and why it's important
one is seniors are changing, right people. People have come
(35:15):
up to me a lot and say, what's going on
with the senior But why are seniors becoming more liberal?
They are not becoming more liberal. The seniors you have
in your head as seniors are probably like your grandparents,
or their friends who may or may not have passed away,
right and increased likelihood. That's what comes with the age.
It's sad. I'm not wishing anything, but that is what
(35:36):
the truth is. Archie Bunker has passed away. Meathead is
a senior. Henry Fonder Fonda has passed away. Jane Fonda
is a senior. The liberal baby boomers are in their
seventies and eighties, the greatest generation, the people who worked
for Richard Nixon, the people who worked against the counter culturalists,
(36:00):
the ones that you probably were seniors in your mind
in the early two thousands, if you were like me,
you're a millennial, and you know you watch little giants
growing up. Those people, the World War II veterans that
you see in the stands who are rooting on the
pee football team, they're almost all gone. And it's the
liberals who were middle aged at the time who are
part of the counterculture that are like of the Joe
(36:22):
Biden's era, or a little young or a little older,
who are the ones who are seniors now. Nonetheless, and
yet still they didn't know for a majority for Kamala Harris,
which was a narrative the media was pushing endlessly. It's
a narrative David Shup push which I disagreed with his data.
I agree with the Kittle Catalyst data. Those are the
narratives worth dispelling, worth breaking down. I had to go
(36:44):
into it. I know that was long winded. I know
that that was probably a lot for people to listen to.
But thank you for hearing all the numbers because it's
a numbers game. Okay, So this is the part of
the podcast where I talk about I do you know
questions I asked me anything segment? Ryant Email me Ryan
at Numbers Game Podcast dot com, Ryan at Numbers Plural,
Numbers gamepodcast dot com. You can tweet me. I'm gonna
(37:05):
put a pin tweet where I'll take questions from Twitter.
If you no one can take the time to email me,
It's fine you guys send me questions. I love to
answer them on literally anything. That's what I usually do.
But this week I came across a piece of gossip
that I have to tell you guys about. I haven't
tweeted this, I haven't talked about it. I'm saving it
specifically for you. It's about a member of Congress. It
(37:28):
is some of the wildest stories I've ever heard it
is George Santos on steroids. I'll be back with it
after these messages. Okay, we are back for the final segment,
which is usually where I ask take questions, and I
want your questions. Email me Ryan at numbers Game dot
com right Ryan at numbers Game podcast dot com. Sorry
by that, guys. Okay, so there is a Republican member
(37:51):
of Congress. Stories are in the works right now, so
I don't want to burst anyone's but some have been
published already. This is a member of Congress. I'm not
going to say the name because it's going to come
out publicly, but I will give you an offense where
if you're in the know, you will know. This is
somebody who was a police had shown up at his
(38:11):
house because he was having a domestic with his girlfriend,
even though at the time he had said he was
married to another woman. This is a person who has
said that he has over exaggerated his military service to
the point where it could be possibly considered stolen valor
if you're in the military. I'm not so I don't
(38:33):
know what the record says for that are, but I've
heard people in the military say it's the degree that
it's stolen valor. I have heard, and I'm going to
get the journalist on here who's been working on it.
I have heard his dealings, his business dealings, or to
the millions and millions of dollars of debt, millions of
(38:53):
dollars of debt, that it's extremely shady and I'm not
sure if the debtors, the people who are lending money
are even American. This is somebody who has been trying
to sleep with every single conservative influencer woman in the business,
(39:15):
saying repeated lies over and over and over again. And
then this was the craziest thing. Multiple of these women
told me that he was trying to convert them to Islam. Now,
this is not a reported Muslim. This is somebody who
says that he's a Christian, who where is his religion
(39:37):
on his sleeve? Stories had emerged that he was married
by a very prominent in mom in a mosque by
the unindicted co conspirator of the nineteen ninety three World
Trades utder bombing, that all of his business dealings are
extraordinarily shady and weird, that his military record is completely
(39:59):
and totally f acated, if not fabricated, over exaggerated, and
there are multiple women speaking constantly with each other that
he has created lies about the state of one his
marriage where he says he's divorced when he's when he
wasn't at the time, or maybe now he's divorced, but
he wasn't at the time. And then once he gets
in these relationships with them, these precarious relationships, they find
(40:23):
themselves in position where they feel like they are threatened,
and he spends time to sit there and say, I
think the exact quotes that he was saying to them
is how Islam and Christianity were close to the same thing,
even though I'm not a religious scholar, but I know
that much they're not. And he was married by the
nineteen ninety three World Trade Center conspirat, a co conspirator.
(40:47):
I am going to give it to the journalist. I'm
going to invite him up. When this story is up,
and there's a woman to who's doing another story on this,
I'm going to write them both to talk about this.
I know this is not typically a numbers game. It
is the craziest, most salacious, most interesting news story about
a person. If Donald Trump was not an office right now.
This would be the front page of every single newspaper.
This would be George Sando's on crack. But you know
(41:10):
the media can only focus on Trump. That is my
dog snoring, by the way, Smory about that. That's that
little yelp that you hear. That's not me. It is
a wild story. Not many people are covering it. I'm
going to when this comes out because people's heads are
going to explode. It is crazy. That's my little piece
of gossip. Send me your messages Ryan at numbers gamepodcast
(41:33):
dot com. Please like and subscribe to this podcast and
iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, wherever podcasts are we ever give
your podcast. I have some incredible guests coming up next
week and the week after. You will not want to
miss it. Please like and subscribe, give me a five
star review if you're feeling generous, and I will see
you guys next week
Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Grodski. I
am your host. Thank you all for being here again
this week. This week is a solo episode because this
is a number Game podcast and there was a ton
of data that came out this week, and I thought,
let's have a very autistic episode starring just me where
I can give you everything that you're here for, and
(00:27):
then we'll presume with a guest come next week. But
there's three topics I want to get to on today's episode,
which is the Trump whole bounce, what is going on
in New York State that I think is super interesting,
and then data that came out about the twenty twenty
four election that is very, very vital. So let's start
though with the Trump bounce. For those who don't know now,
(00:51):
a month ago, right the media was loving it because
Trump's numbers were down double digits in a number of
very highly accredited public holes. Public polls are not usually
as good as private polls, but they make cross tabs available,
they work with media outlets, they get a lot of coverage.
So these polls were coming out showing Trump's numbers in
(01:12):
the dumps. It was right after Liberation Day and fears
of recession were at a huge high, and since then,
well we haven't had a recession. Actually, the numbers from
the economy are doing pretty good. There was a reduction
in prices in wholesale prices, wages are up over three percent,
inflation is steady. Things are going well for the economy.
(01:35):
The economy is fairly strong, and this has been very
good news for Donald Trump. So I looked at the
seven polls that had come out recently that also came
out a month ago. They are Insider Advantage, Morning Consult,
the Economists, the Daily Mail, who James Johnson, who came
on this podcast a couple weeks ago, RMG Research, Quantus,
(01:59):
and Emerson and Quantas was the third most accurate polster
of the twenty twenty four election cycle, and I believe
Insider Advantage was the second, and Emerson was probably the fourth.
So highly accredited polling firms, but not the type of
polling firms that get huge coverage like The New York
Times does, or like NBC News does or whatnot, but
(02:19):
good polls. Right, their overall net approval for Donald Trump
in on four thirty was about negative four three point
six Right, The Economist and the Daily Mail having double
digit losses, and then RMG Research being at zero, Emerson
being plus two instead of Vanage being plus two, but
overall negative four. If you look at the average of
(02:41):
those of those seven polling firms. Now Trump has a
one point approval rating net approval rating that means people
you know, if the providing is fifty forty nine percent
the negative is forty eight percent right, and favorable rating
of one point. He grew about four point one points
in favorability over the last month. That is substantial. I
(03:03):
did the deep dives in all the cross steps that
were publicly available to me. A big part of the
bump seems to be coming from one man men across
the board, which would make sense if men felt like
a recession was happening at any time, that it would
be important to sit there into that they would have
(03:24):
fears and they'd have worries, and that maybe their numbers
would go down among men, but their backup Republicans are
back up men across every racial line, by the way,
saw a bounce which was very very important. But interestingly enough,
the number among Democrats had increased, specifically minority Democrats, and
what I wonder were those pollsters tracking black men and
(03:50):
Hispanic men who are still Democrats, but they voted for Trump,
and they were the ones having quasi buyers remorse for
a period of time, and now they're back on the
train because the recession that was the media said was
going to happen just never happened. I also wonder, and
this is part of my analyst media brain working, because
(04:15):
the news of Joe Biden's health and the book that
had come out with Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson called
Original Sin was out. I wonder if the conversation being
so heavily about Joe Biden is now feeding into people's
like psyche. Oh yeah, this guy was in charge for
four years and he was not only wrecking the economy
(04:38):
causing runaway inflation the egg prices were going up, but
also he was not mentally acute or had mental decline.
According to some people, he could have had cancer. This
entire time. Some doctors were on television sitting there and saying,
there's no way this cancer diagnosis is recent. I don't know.
(04:58):
I'm not a doctor. I barely pass high school biology.
But this is I think part of the narrative because
historically in the twenty sixteen election, in the twenty twenty election,
and in the twenty twenty four election, when the focus
has not been on Trump, when that heavy media obsession
and gaze has not been so focused on Donald Trump
(05:21):
to the point that they're wondering, if you know how
many scoops of ice from he eats? Does he have
the channel of the apes fighting? This was an old
news headline. But when that focus is not on him
to a ridiculous standpoint where he's, you know, a fascist
who's going to end the world, people generally start thinking
favorably of him. There's an unhealthy news cycle. So I
think that that is when that is dimmed. Because we're
(05:43):
focusing on Joe Biden's health so much, and the recession
that was supposed to happen never did happen. Maybe people's
feelings on Trump relaxed because the media fears never amounted
to anything. That's what I think. If Trump can now
come out in the next few weeks with a deal,
a trade deal, because he's got a couple I guess
(06:05):
in the works of the EU and several other countries,
and if he's able to maybe broke or some kind
of peace deal with either Iran or slow one of
the wars down. Not that I don't think Americans cared
that much about it, but it would be a nice
news cycle if either the Ukraine or Israel stop fighting.
That would be more positive praise in his direction. And
(06:28):
improve upon it at a critical time. We'll see. But
overall for Trump right now, he's had a very very
good couple of weeks. Republicans need this improvement as they
get their tax bill done, as they get the budget passed,
and all the infighting around it kind of is very
(06:48):
intense over spending limits and assault deductions and all the
rest of it, and no tax on tip. But as
they get those things through the finish line, to sit
there and try to go to middle class voters, working
class voters and say and senior citizens and say, look
what we delivered for you, Please reelect us give us
the House majority again, which is on the tipping point
a number of polls. He needs not to seem like
(07:12):
an essential threat. He needs people to be liking the
job that he's doing, and right now they are, so
this is a big win for him. The other thing
that I wanted to talk about there was another poll
that didn't get any publicity whatsoever that I thought was
very interesting. It came out of Siena College. Sana College
is a college in upstate New York. Never been there,
but they do work with The New York Times a
(07:33):
lot during the presidential cycles. They're considered a very accurate polster.
I think they have got an A rating by most analysts.
They produced a report on the election coming up for
governor that wasn't very interesting. But in the election underneath,
the election of vote them was all primary stuff. So
Stephanic versus Lawlor for the Republican side and Kathy Helkel
(07:55):
for the election. None of it was interesting. The interesting thing, though,
was when and they asked them, as the New Yorkers,
how they feel on several issues. Right, so like New
Yorkers still hate congestion pricing, that didn't change. But the
issues that were very interesting was this. They asked New
York State residents right, New York State, Liberal Democratic state
New York State residents if the state government under Governor
(08:20):
Kathy Hochel should be assisting the Trump administration in deporting
illegal immigrants. A plurality of New Yorkers said yes. Forty
five percent of New Yorkers said that the state of
New York under Governor Kathy Hochel should be working with
Donald Trump to deport illegal immigrants. Thirty eight percent said no,
(08:44):
they shouldn't. Twelve percent said they were somewhere in the middle,
they didn't know how they felt about it. The interesting
thing was not only was it basically universally yes among Republicans,
twenty five percent of Democrats said they should be working
with Trump to deported league immigrants, and a majority of
(09:04):
Independence fifty one percent of Independence said yes. Other groups
that had a huge number men fifty percent, not shocking,
but women women were forty one forty three. They were
evenly split, which says a lot. They also had almost
majority of Union members. They had forty percent of residents
(09:24):
of New York City. New York City I think went
thirty percent for Trump, so ten points more than voted
for him wanted his deportation to happen. Fifty percent of
white residents, twenty seven percent of blacks, and among Hispanics
it was tied. It was forty one forty three, which
is tied in the marginal error, but forty one forty
(09:45):
three said yes. Forty one percent of Latinos. This is
once again wall two wall negative mainstream news coverage of
the Maryland Man, of innocent people accidentally being arrested, of
you know, and fear, and white liberals losing their mind
each and every single day, and all the ethnic lobby
coming out and sitting there and saying this is terrorism.
(10:08):
This is I think. Governor Mike Waltz compared ICE agents
to the Gestapo very very much, showing how much he
supports law enforcement. Among Catholics in New York State, it
was fifty four percent Jews. It was forty seven to
forty two. They were one of the most liberal groups
in New York, although the Hasidics and Orthodox are not.
(10:29):
But the majority population though is pretty liberal. Protestants it
was fifty five percent, fifty percent of middle income earners.
That is wild. This is New York State. The other part,
the other question that there was was would you see
support a total outright ban on transgender students playing in
(10:54):
any school and any girls' sport, transgender women being biological
and playing in girl sports, a total ban in every school.
Would you want the school districts to decide individually or
would you want a total support like every school has
to allow transgender, transgender girls biological men to play in
(11:16):
girls sports. Right, this is what New York residents said.
Forty six percent of New York residents wanted a full
outright ban. They didn't want individual districts to decide. They
wanted a straightforward ban, including a third of Democrats, fifty
four percent of independence, fifty percent of men, forty four
(11:40):
percent of women, which is the biggest plurality of that
group of women. Right, A plurality of Democrats set a
full outright ban. A third of Democrats that was higher
than any other category, A third right, forty percent of
people in New York City, which was the plurality of
any of the other categories. Other groups, A majority of
(12:01):
the people in the suburbs, a majority of the people
in upstate, forty three percent of black residents. This was
a majority of Catholics, a majority of Protestants, a plurality
of Jews. I'm looking at the numbers right now. That
is incredible in my mind. And here's why it is incredible.
Those two questions in particular, New York State moved the
(12:24):
most right of any state in the country in the
last election. I have lived in New York basically my
entire life. I know the state very well, I know
residents very well. It is not that New York State
is all of a sudden going to be a swing state,
although I do believe it will continue to move several
points to the right. If you look at all the
(12:44):
other questions they asked about free lunches, about like more
spending on social welfare policies, New Yorkers are overwhelmingly for
it right. They have a left wing center left access
to them that high lights why they vote so liberally. However,
a big, big caveat is on these issues that people
(13:08):
most associate with failed governance by the Democratic Party. Even
twenty five to thirty percent of Democrats are willing to
balk at them. A huge percentage of minorities are willing
to sit there and say no. Catholics, who historically were
very Democratic right, there's a lot of Hispanics in the
Catholic Church in New York, but there's also a lot
(13:29):
of ethnic Whites in the Catholic Church. New York Union members.
These are people that should never be aligning with the
Republican Party and on these issues that are the most
identifiable with a single party and their governance. You have
overwhelming numbers on the side of the Conservatives, which explains
(13:52):
why these overall trends of working class, people, of middle class,
people of some younger people of ethnic minorities are moving
away from the Democratic Party even though the despite they
probably agree with them on most economic issues. They feel
uncomfortable with mass immigration, they feel uncomfortable with the illegal immigration,
(14:13):
They feel uncomfortable with the transgender sports issue. There was
another poll that came out earlier today. I'm recording this
on Wednesday for the Thursday episode. It was from Wisconsin,
and they asked would you support a full deportation of
illegal immigrants? And sixty six percent said yes. This is
after hyperbolic reactions from Democrats giving worst case scenarios over
(14:38):
and over and over again, and yet Joe Biden so
broke the back of the American people when it comes
to the issue immigration. They do not care. The sympathy
bank is completely empty. And there is something in our
culture called how do I put this toxic empathy where
(14:58):
you are to feel bad for someone who is doing
you harm. That has been behind the main driver of
many of our political decisions in our culture, which had
been very bad for a very long time, and it
was surrounding our immigration choices for a while, or allowing
our immigration laws to be skirted for a while. That
is completely run dry, so very interesting. If the Democratic
(15:22):
Party continues to be associated with these bad governing policies,
if they don't make an abrupt u turn like the
Labor Party, as we mentioned in the last episode about
what's going on in England right now, then I would
expect places like New Jersey, California, and New York where
these issues are front and center because Democrats refuse to
change ways on it, to be moving more of their
(15:44):
voters to the right. Maybe we'll make California or New
York swing state. Maybe we'll make a few more distress competitive.
It absolutely will be making New Jersey a swing state.
And I think that's very interesting. There's one more data
stuff that I want to talk about with you guys.
It is a blockbuster. Not going to want to miss it.
Stay tuned for these messages. All right, we are back.
(16:06):
And the last thing that I wanted to bring up
to you as far as the data goes, as far
as my autistic my autistic marathon goes, is there is
I know the election was like, you know, months and
months ago, and everyone's kind of passed it. But there
is three organizations that do post election reviews that are
(16:27):
super insightful for describing and analyzing what actually happened, what
actually went through. I mean, the exit polls came out,
but like the exit polls are wrong most of the time.
So there's three organizations. There's David Shore, who is, you know,
very smart, but I think he's a liberal. I don't
think he wants to be on with the Beeber guy,
but who knows. I'm a big fan still. I think
that he's a genius. His stuff came out a month ago.
(16:47):
That's where I said that seventy five per according to
his analysis, seventy five percent of eighteen to twenty one
year old white men in this country voted for Trump.
It was the large group that vote of a Trump
of any demographic. That was his data that came in
a few months ago. Then there's the Pew Research Center.
(17:08):
It's coming out in a few weeks to months. I'm
looking forward to that. I will talk about that. I
know everyone will be done with it by that point,
but I will talk about it because I can't get
enough and then the last is an organization called Catalyst.
Now they have been doing this since twenty twelve and
they are out with their report. It came out on Monday.
It is a blockbuster and it breaks apart a lot
(17:30):
of what Democrats have excused for Kamala Harris's loss. So
there's six points I want to go through. The first
being Democrats said that they had a turnout problem. Right,
you hear this over and over and over again. Oh,
if Omar Billigs turned out, they would have he would
have won. He would have won. Sure, So that was incorrect.
What the Catalyst information says is that not only was turnout, yes,
(17:53):
turnout was lower nationwide, but turnout was higher in the
swing states. So he they you have the turnoff that
they wanted in swing states. The swing state participation rate
was over seventy percent, which was higher than the sixty
four percent nationwide. So there was this excessive higher amount
(18:14):
of turnout in places like Georgia and Arizona and Nevada
where they wanted to have massive turnout. They got there,
but it didn't matter because Trump had won over persuasion.
People wanted him because they were persuaded to vote for
him and they were not persuaded to vote for Kamalo. Secondly,
turnout wasn't the same everywhere. This is something that Democrats
(18:36):
are right about, but it's not super coherent. Turnout was
down nationwide from twenty twenty to twenty twenty four, right,
but it wasn't even across the board. Among white voters,
it was down one percent. Among blacks, it was down
five point six percent, among Latinos three percent, and among
(18:56):
Asians six point seven percent. When you go into the
Swing States, however, black turnout was down one point six percent,
among black men two percent. Now, I want you to
go back to old media interviews in your head if
you remember them. Like there's Van Jones who was on
CNN with a few times and he was a very
(19:17):
nice person. I'm not behind the scenes, gentlemen, but he
would say all the time that there is this push
to get black men to support kamal law, to get
the first woman across the finish line. The Charlemagne, the
God did the same exact thing. They were all sitting
there and saying there's this push to get black man.
We're gonna get black men, We're gonna get black men.
(19:38):
Didn't get black men In fact, in swing states, even
where they did the souls, the polls everything, black male
participation dropped two percent, But guess what black female participation
dropped as well. Black female participation dropped by one percent
in swing states. Now, aside from Wisconsin, one percent wouldn't
have made up the difference. I don't e think what
(19:58):
blackmen make up ten percent to make one percent, So
it doesn't really matter. Black women weren't that interested in
Kamala either. The narrative that Black Americans were not sold
on Kammala as like being a brown a glass of shatterer,
the same way they were over Obama. Let's say it's
true Trump mentioned it, was called a racist for it,
(20:18):
but even like Janet Jackson was saying it, people were
saying it all over the all over that there was
a large percentage of Black America who were not sold
that she was part of their community and they were
not needing to go vote for her. White support was
up one point five percent, but it was mostly driven
by white women. White women did show up in big numbers,
it was up for white men as well. Latinos showed
(20:39):
up and increased numbers as well. Okay, that's that's that's important.
Second point of the entire thing, the racial breakdown, because
the white number had decreased the lowest amount nationwide and
increased the highest in swing states, was unchanged from twenty twenty.
Now there's this constant notion that, oh, you know, whites
(21:01):
are decreasing in every electorate. Didn't happen in twenty twenty.
It didn't happen in twenty sixteen, Monch either. It was
basically the same in twenty sixteen, but it'd not been
in twenty twenty four. But the one thing that did
happen with the racial and an education breakdown that is
extremely important is for the very first time ever as
(21:21):
far as I can go back, and this is especially
of the Catalyst research, non college educated whites were no
longer the largest voting block in the Democratic coalition. They
have been surpassed by college educated whites. Believe it or not,
even though the spokespeople for the Democratic Party absolutely hate
(21:42):
non college educated white people and trash talk them constantly.
They were still about a third of all Kamala voters,
but they were almost forty percent. They were thirty seven
percent of all guidance supporters versus twenty four percent sorry
Biden Obama twenty twelve, they were almost They were thirty
(22:03):
seven percent of all Obama voters and only thirty one
percent of all Comma voters. Kamala and the Democratic Party,
because of their aggressive attacks against working class white people,
have sheed twenty percent of their non college educated white
voting base, twenty percent of the largest single demographic in
(22:26):
the country. So while they increase their numbers among college
educated whites and lost a lot of non college educated whites,
they've also lost a lot of black support over time
because of declining participation rates, especially going back to Obama.
And they're stagnant with the Latinos because as even the
Latinos are growing in population, they are not increasing their
(22:47):
size and support for the Democratic Party. It's gotten done
significantly since Obama. One other caveat that I thought was
really really interesting, twenty percent of people who voted for
Trump were non white. That is the biggest single Republican
candidacy ever as far as a minority constituency, one in five.
That's never happened before, not even for George W. Bush.
(23:09):
It is it is the multi racial working class that
a lot of people have sat there and talked about okay.
Third point, there is this big notion that like, white
women are the end of the world, and they're all Karens.
This is an ocean among like the right, it's all
white women who are you know, the ones pushing all
the progressive agenda and they are pushing the Democratic Party
(23:30):
to the left. White women, however, voted more for Trump
in this election than they voted for him in the
last election. Trump won white women in this country. I
fifty two to forty eight. We got the catalyst, probably
gets rid of all the third party things, so they
make it even fifty to fifty fifty two forty eight.
(23:53):
Among college educated white women, Trump actually improved by one
point from twenty twenty. He actually did better among college
educated white women. After I don't know how many times
I was on the CNN panel hearing about fascism and
abortion rights and abortion rights and abortion rights and these
were going to move all these women over. He did
one point better. All of that rhetoric was nonsense. All
(24:18):
of that rhetoric was complete and total nonsense. Among white men.
Among white men without a college degree, Harris only got
thirty percent of the vote. Now think about it, white
men are white people are about sixty percent of the country.
White men are thirty percent White to a college degree
of twenty percent is the single largest block. Maybe white
women without a college degree are also similar, but a
(24:39):
twenty percent one in five voters. They've lost twenty percent
of their support, more than twenty percent of their support
with that voting base since twenty twelve, super significant in
the white vote and why the white vote has The
white vote has been basically flat though for the last
couple of election cycles, at forty two percent support for
demrik Rats. And that is because college college educated whites
(25:03):
have typically been moving to the left, although in this
last election they moved to the right. White men with
a college degree moved six points to the right. I know,
I'm three on a lot of numbers. I will try
to rein it back and get back to the narrative. Okay,
minority men, this is where the popular vote win happened, right,
(25:23):
It wasn't just I mean, making a Republican president is
like baking a cake. The batter is the white vote.
You can't win with if you don't get large sport
with the white vote. The minority vote is the cream
filling the the I don't know what are you put
on a cake? Everything, all the trimmings is the minority vote.
(25:45):
You can have a cake, but you can't have the
trimmings about the minority vote. Okay, So that's the popular
vote win. Among black men, ninety five percent of whom
voted for Barack Obama, almost one hundred percent universe. So
ninety percent of Black men vote for Barack Obama. Nine
percent voted for Kamala Harris inde nine percent. Among battleground
(26:10):
Black voters it was eighty four. So they did do
a better job in the battlegrounds where they spent more resources.
But in the nation as a whole, seventy nine percent.
If it's seventy nine percent, nation went as a whole,
and you were taking out place like Georgia and North Carolina,
in other places like Mississippi, Alabama, probably Texas as a
decent black population. You're talking about, you know, New York.
(26:33):
It's probably you know, maybe a third. Trump probably got
a third of the black vote. If you take out
that portion among black women, that vote was stagnant, That
vote is very hardly cemented. It was ninety percent of
the Black women voted for Trump this time ninety percent
voted last time. Maybe he went maybe one by half
a point or less than half a point, but it
wasn't significant. Black men, though, it is a gigantic drop
(26:58):
ninety five to seventy nine among black women from twenty
twelve overs it's a seven point drop, but among black
men sixteen points. It is substantial. Among black men under
the age of thirty, it's seventy five percent. One in
four Black men under the age of thirty voted for
(27:20):
Donald Trump. That is not a small, insignificant, minor group
of people. That is not a tiny fraction of a coalition.
That's one in four of the Democratic Party's base. Among
Black women under thirty, it was eighty eight percent. So
(27:41):
it was so younger black people in general, but mostly
younger Black men, one in four versus go back twenty
years ago, go back ten years ago to Barack Obama,
it was like one in twenty five, we're voting four
for the Republican. Now it's one in four. This is
(28:01):
a crazy, crazy, crazy shift. Okay, go to latinos now,
because this is wild. Trump won. This is the second
time that has been confirmed. But this is this proves it,
This proves it to be true. Trump won Latino men.
I think George W. Bush may have won it, but
the exit polling was really really bad at the time,
so you can't really trust it. But Trump won Latino
(28:22):
men by six points. That is insane. He only lost
the over all Latino vote by eight. This is a group.
Once again. Hillary won them by forty in the overall
head to head according to catalysts, she won them seventy thirty.
Harris won them fifty four to forty six. And the
(28:44):
craziest thing was they asked them across the ages. They said,
among ages, right, how old are you? How are you voting?
Among the ages, young Latinos, millennial Latinos, zoomer Latinos, fifty
seven percent voted for Harris. It dips down to fifty
two or Gen xers and early boomers, and then goes
back up to fifty seven. When you get to late Jane, sorry,
(29:07):
late boomers and silent generation. So old Latinos and young
Latinos at fifty seven all the middle of fifty two.
What does that show you? That shows you that the reconfiguration,
the realignment of minorities is universal. Now, this isn't true
for black voters. Black voters. There is a substantial drop
(29:28):
when you get younger, right, you go to older Black voters,
it's still over ninety percent. They're immovable. The only way
Republicans will win those voters they can't. I'm just gonna
say something else, but they can't. Those voters will be
Democrats of the day they die. It is the all.
It is their natural born inheritance. There is no moving
older Black voters. We can just give up on trying
(29:48):
to whoever we have is all we're going to have.
Of the older group, But the younger group, it's like
a thirteen point overall drop when you include men and women, right, Latinos,
it's across the board. The only group that is getting
substantially more democratic as the younger are Asians. And I
want to it to Asians. In one second, among Asians
(30:09):
still democratic support for among Asians among for Barack Obama
twenty twelve, seventy one percent, support for Kamala Harris twenty
twenty four fifty five percent, another sixteen point drop. This
is a male revolution, it's a male driven revolution. So
those are the important things that it's the racial breakdown
(30:30):
I think is very important. It does substantiate shores earlier conversation.
It's substantially is what we thought that this was a
male dominated movement and that the women are moving. But
it is. But you have to go with the context
of it's not all white women. In fact, the majority
of white women's still voter for Republicans, stale voter for
Donald Trump, and there is increased support among non white
(30:53):
women who are not black. Black women are just immovable
in college educated women, college educated white women right. Other
still moved towards Trump, although they gave the majority of
their support to Kamala Harris let's I'm gonna, I'm gonna,
I'm gonna land this plane very soon. I promised, stick
with me if you're still with me. Right. They gave
a demographic a demographic breakdown the only group two point
(31:16):
two things one for the first time in my lifetime,
first time Catalysts ever seen this. Not my lifetime, I'm
kind of old now, but first time the Catalyst has
reported this. Publicans won non college educated voters by double digits,
first time ever. Right, huge among non college educated whites. Overall,
(31:39):
they won them by twenty eight points. That's the same
number he won them by in twenty sixteen. This is
a general movement among a cementing of that base, non
college educated white voters that you have to have to
have to hear this point. It is so essential on
(32:00):
college educated white voters were the only group in America demographically,
education and race base right to give a majority of
their support for Donald Trump. College educated whites didn't, Blacks
didn't of any college education, Latinos didn't, Asians didn't, others didn't.
(32:20):
It was solely, solely based on the vote of the
non college educated white that gave a majority of their
support to Donald Trump. I say that not because I
want to emphasize that one group is better than the
other or more loyal than the other. I want to
say that because when we have conversations around what can
(32:41):
the Republican Party do more for black voters or Latino voters,
or this group or that group, or women or whatnot,
I think it's very important to understand and to remind
ourselves who is bringing home the votes to get a
Republican elected. It is non college educated white voters. What
is the Trump administration? What are Republicans? Congressional Republicans are they?
(33:04):
What are the Republican governors? What are they doing for them?
For all the analysts dribble, we have to hear constantly
about what are we doing to sit there and shed
one percentage more among black women? What are we doing
to deliver support for our voters, whether that be tax cuts,
whether that be opioid relief because their population has been
(33:27):
deficit with the opioid effect, pro family stuff. What are
we doing for those voters on all those issues? That
should be the question Republicans should take from this as Wow,
these are the only will give us a majority support?
What are we doing for them? Has to be emphasized. Okay,
landing the plane once again, back to the age range thing.
Kamala Harris lost support among every single age range in
(33:52):
the country. I had said this a while ago, that
these polls were coming out New York Times, Sienna, especially
where Harris seniors by like twenty points in Pennsylvania and
Wisconsin and she was going to win the senior vote.
The number of polls that said she was going to
win the senior vote were were out of control. They
were out of control. They were completely insane, and I
(34:13):
didn't believe it for a second. Turns out it wasn't true.
Senior citizens voted majority for Trump and actually increased their
support for Donald Trump among Trump also won every age
range of white voters. White voters between the age of
eighteen to twenty nine voted for Trump by two points.
This was a group that voted for Joe Biden. They
(34:33):
had moved eight points to the right for Donald Trump.
This is once again it goes back to what the
David Shore was saying, where he said young people under
twenty one who had lived during the worst of COVID
were the most radical right wing. So maybe he was
onto something right there. Double digit support and swing for
Trump came from every bracket of Latino voters, over twenty
(34:53):
points among young Latinos, double digits among Black voters under
the age of forty five, and and a twenty point
margin a twenty point swaying towards Trump among Asians in
that category. That's also very important and why it's important
one is seniors are changing, right people. People have come
(35:15):
up to me a lot and say, what's going on
with the senior But why are seniors becoming more liberal?
They are not becoming more liberal. The seniors you have
in your head as seniors are probably like your grandparents,
or their friends who may or may not have passed away,
right and increased likelihood. That's what comes with the age.
It's sad. I'm not wishing anything, but that is what
(35:36):
the truth is. Archie Bunker has passed away. Meathead is
a senior. Henry Fonder Fonda has passed away. Jane Fonda
is a senior. The liberal baby boomers are in their
seventies and eighties, the greatest generation, the people who worked
for Richard Nixon, the people who worked against the counter culturalists,
(36:00):
the ones that you probably were seniors in your mind
in the early two thousands, if you were like me,
you're a millennial, and you know you watch little giants
growing up. Those people, the World War II veterans that
you see in the stands who are rooting on the
pee football team, they're almost all gone. And it's the
liberals who were middle aged at the time who are
part of the counterculture that are like of the Joe
(36:22):
Biden's era, or a little young or a little older,
who are the ones who are seniors now. Nonetheless, and
yet still they didn't know for a majority for Kamala Harris,
which was a narrative the media was pushing endlessly. It's
a narrative David Shup push which I disagreed with his data.
I agree with the Kittle Catalyst data. Those are the
narratives worth dispelling, worth breaking down. I had to go
(36:44):
into it. I know that was long winded. I know
that that was probably a lot for people to listen to.
But thank you for hearing all the numbers because it's
a numbers game. Okay, So this is the part of
the podcast where I talk about I do you know
questions I asked me anything segment? Ryant Email me Ryan
at Numbers Game Podcast dot com, Ryan at Numbers Plural,
Numbers gamepodcast dot com. You can tweet me. I'm gonna
(37:05):
put a pin tweet where I'll take questions from Twitter.
If you no one can take the time to email me,
It's fine you guys send me questions. I love to
answer them on literally anything. That's what I usually do.
But this week I came across a piece of gossip
that I have to tell you guys about. I haven't
tweeted this, I haven't talked about it. I'm saving it
specifically for you. It's about a member of Congress. It
(37:28):
is some of the wildest stories I've ever heard it
is George Santos on steroids. I'll be back with it
after these messages. Okay, we are back for the final segment,
which is usually where I ask take questions, and I
want your questions. Email me Ryan at numbers Game dot
com right Ryan at numbers Game podcast dot com. Sorry
by that, guys. Okay, so there is a Republican member
(37:51):
of Congress. Stories are in the works right now, so
I don't want to burst anyone's but some have been
published already. This is a member of Congress. I'm not
going to say the name because it's going to come
out publicly, but I will give you an offense where
if you're in the know, you will know. This is
somebody who was a police had shown up at his
(38:11):
house because he was having a domestic with his girlfriend,
even though at the time he had said he was
married to another woman. This is a person who has
said that he has over exaggerated his military service to
the point where it could be possibly considered stolen valor
if you're in the military. I'm not so I don't
(38:33):
know what the record says for that are, but I've
heard people in the military say it's the degree that
it's stolen valor. I have heard, and I'm going to
get the journalist on here who's been working on it.
I have heard his dealings, his business dealings, or to
the millions and millions of dollars of debt, millions of
(38:53):
dollars of debt, that it's extremely shady and I'm not
sure if the debtors, the people who are lending money
are even American. This is somebody who has been trying
to sleep with every single conservative influencer woman in the business,
(39:15):
saying repeated lies over and over and over again. And
then this was the craziest thing. Multiple of these women
told me that he was trying to convert them to Islam. Now,
this is not a reported Muslim. This is somebody who
says that he's a Christian, who where is his religion
(39:37):
on his sleeve? Stories had emerged that he was married
by a very prominent in mom in a mosque by
the unindicted co conspirator of the nineteen ninety three World
Trades utder bombing, that all of his business dealings are
extraordinarily shady and weird, that his military record is completely
(39:59):
and totally f acated, if not fabricated, over exaggerated, and
there are multiple women speaking constantly with each other that
he has created lies about the state of one his
marriage where he says he's divorced when he's when he
wasn't at the time, or maybe now he's divorced, but
he wasn't at the time. And then once he gets
in these relationships with them, these precarious relationships, they find
(40:23):
themselves in position where they feel like they are threatened,
and he spends time to sit there and say, I
think the exact quotes that he was saying to them
is how Islam and Christianity were close to the same thing,
even though I'm not a religious scholar, but I know
that much they're not. And he was married by the
nineteen ninety three World Trade Center conspirat, a co conspirator.
(40:47):
I am going to give it to the journalist. I'm
going to invite him up. When this story is up,
and there's a woman to who's doing another story on this,
I'm going to write them both to talk about this.
I know this is not typically a numbers game. It
is the craziest, most salacious, most interesting news story about
a person. If Donald Trump was not an office right now.
This would be the front page of every single newspaper.
This would be George Sando's on crack. But you know
(41:10):
the media can only focus on Trump. That is my
dog snoring, by the way, Smory about that. That's that
little yelp that you hear. That's not me. It is
a wild story. Not many people are covering it. I'm
going to when this comes out because people's heads are
going to explode. It is crazy. That's my little piece
of gossip. Send me your messages Ryan at numbers gamepodcast
(41:33):
dot com. Please like and subscribe to this podcast and
iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, wherever podcasts are we ever give
your podcast. I have some incredible guests coming up next
week and the week after. You will not want to
miss it. Please like and subscribe, give me a five
star review if you're feeling generous, and I will see
you guys next week
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