In this episode, Ryan analyzes new polling data showing a shift among Latino voters toward the GOP, challenging Democrat dominance in key districts. He then welcomes British journalist Freddie Gray to discuss the UK’s political upheaval: the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, Labour’s struggles amid Jeremy Corbyn’s new far-left party, and the Conservative Party’s decline under Kemi Badenoch. The episode highlights growing public frustration with mass immigration and censorship, drawing parallels between American and British political realignments and underscoring the challenges facing establishment parties on both sides of the Atlantic. It's a Numbers Game is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Monday & Thursday.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Grodowski. Thank
you all for being here. So I have some polling
data that I think you liked hear, and then I
want to get to the main topic to discuss. But
on the polling data, a poll from Equis Research came out. Now,
this is a liberal polling firm that specializes in American
Hispanics and the Hispanic vote.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
And they're not the most accurate.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
They did estimate that Trump was going to lose the
Hispanic vote in swing states by eighteen points in twenty
twenty four, and he only lost them by ten points.
So it's not a great firm, but they put out
some data that I think is important because no one
else has put it out so far. So I want
you to take it with a grain of salts, but
understand it's important. It may be like, you know, liberal wishcasting,
(00:49):
but they're the only ones asking this question as we
go into the twenty twenty six election. So the poll
looks at Latinos that voted for Biden in twenty twenty
and then Trump in twenty twenty four. So the first
first part of the poll is they looked at Latinos
that back from twenty twenty twenty four, and they find
that they are less likely to show up in twenty
(01:12):
twenty six than Latinos that voted for Harris. Now, that
shouldn't be shocking because Trump's support came from younger men,
it came from people without college degrees, people who don't
vote as often lower pensity voters, so it's not surprising
that they're not showing up in huge numbers like maybe
college educated Latinos are, or Latino senior citizens or women.
The Pole also finds so that Latinos disapprove of Trump's
(01:34):
tariffs and is handling of the economy. Now, once again,
that's also not surprising because it's in line with every
other poll. People feel like the tariffs are attacks and
that you know, the media has been pushing this idea
that there's a recession around the corner that they're wishing
into existence, and they're all affected by it. Everyone's affected
by it because they're nervous and they're uncertain. Nonetheless, the
(01:56):
Pole states that disapprove for Trump's for Trump's handling the
economy has not transferred over to broad support for the Democrats.
And this is where it gets really interesting. The poll
found that among Latinos who voted for Trump in twenty
twenty four, only eight percent say they're committed to voting
for Democrats in twenty twenty six. In the House and Senate.
(02:18):
Among Biden defectors, those are Latinos that voted for Biden
in twenty twenty and then Trump in twenty twenty four,
the numbers who are committed to voting for Democrats are
at thirty one percent. Another twenty percent say they're undecided.
That means one in three Latinos who consistently voted for
Democrats up till twenty twenty four are saying they're switching
back to the Democratic Party. That may seem like a
(02:40):
high number, and it's decently high, especially if you're in
a heavily Latino district that barely voted for Trump, like
Nelly Poe in New Jersey's ninth district or Gave Vasquez
in New Mexico's second. But it's not where Democrats really
want to be. Democrats were always expecting some kind of
revival with their former voters who took a chance on Trump.
After all, like the consequence of being an incumbent and
(03:04):
being in office is you actually have to achieve something,
and there's always an area, a gray area of disappointment
with all voters, for all candidates, whether it doesn't matter
if you're Obama or Biden or Trump. There's always going
to be someone who supported you who feels disappointed in you.
And that's just the name of the game, and every
elected official has that. But that being said, Democrats really
(03:26):
needed to get to a space where they were winning
a majority of Biden Trump Latinos and they're nowhere near
that number, which means maybe we've hit a new floor
of support for Latinos who back Republicans, and that the
growth we saw in twenty twenty four is basically here
to stay.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
Now.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
I've had several analysts on the show, you know, Zachary
Denini said the same thing, and other data scientists have
sat there and said that they expected Republicans support among
Latinos to continue to grow and basically some of the
changes that we saw in red states like Texas and
Arizona and blue states like California, New York, New Jersey,
and Illinois could be here to stay. Very important data
(04:08):
set will have a lot more as the election comes forward,
but this is the first poll to look at this
crucial group and you know, you may not think this
is a huge win for Republicans. It's certainly not a
home run, but it is not a home run for Democrats,
especially the numbers that they were hoping to get to. Okay,
So for the main topic of this episode, I asked
you guys several months ago if you wanted me to
(04:29):
hit on politics from abroad, especially in Europe, and you
said yes. So that's what I'm gonna do today. The
UK has had a series of major political upheavals in
the last few months that the American media has ignored,
but you should pay attention to. First, and possibly the
most consequential piece of information is that the former leader
of the Labor Party, Jeremy Corbin, announced that he intends
to create his own new far left party called Your Party.
(04:53):
The new party will have a host of far left positions,
especially related to the Israel and Palestine conflict. Now, if
you don't remember Jeremy Corbyn, he was the leader of
the Party of the Labor Party for four and a
half years and he was one of the most viscerally
anti Semitic mainstream candidates in all of Europe and the
Labor Party did terribly under his leadership. Throughout his political career,
(05:16):
Corbin has supported things like overturning convictions of Islamic terrorists
who bombed the Israeli embassy in London. He supported the
Iranian regime. He stood next to speakers at an event
where they call the BBC Zionist liars. It was so
bad that the UK Human Rights watchdog group so that
the Labor Party was responsible for quote, unlawful acts of
(05:36):
harassment and discrimination during Corbyn's four and a half years
as the party leader. This is at a time when
activist within the Labor Party said things like all Jews
in Israel should be relocated to the US. That they
also said that the creation of Israel is what Hitler
really wanted and that Jews were really responsible for the
Atlantic slave trade. Corbin was kicked out of the Labor Party,
(05:57):
but you can tell that who his new coalition is
based on the people who've been saying they're going to
join your party, and they're all Muslim MPs. They're all
Muslim members of Parliament. Other policies championed by your party
will include wealth redistribution, nationalizing industries, and actions against climate
change basically your standard socialism. Now your party doesn't have
(06:19):
a lot of support, especially not compared to Nija Faraj's
Reform UK, but they're eating away at Labor parties already
falling numbers. A Fine Out Now poll from July seventeenth
has Reform UK this is the Nigel Faraj new nationalist
populist party at thirty four percent, The Conservatives are known
as the Tories, are at seventeen percent, and Labor is
(06:42):
tied with your party at fifteen percent. Remember, Labor is
the one the last election, so being tied for fourth
or third is not where you want to be. Other
left wing parties like the Liberal Democrats and Greens are
also losing support to Korbyn's party. The growing instability among
the left is worrying Labor leaders as their poll number sink.
(07:04):
A July twenty twenty five poll from YUGA found that
Labour's unfabrile writing is sixty six percent and their favorable
writing is only twenty three percent. That's worse than both
the Conservatives and the Reform UK leaders numbers. Labor leaders
are asking themselves a question, do they try to tack
to the center and even the right, especially on issues
(07:26):
like immigration to win over former voters who are moved
over to Nijel Faraj, Or do they move to the
far left to keep Jeremy corbynet Bay and basically win
over some liberal Democrats and some green voters. In the
midst of all this news from the far left are
the ongoing protests against mass immigration throughout the country, and
there's a reasonable question of whether things are getting so
(07:46):
bad that we may expect to see violence break out
in multiple cities. With me to discuss as the British
journalist who knows what's happening in the mother country, and
he'll be up to discuss.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
Next with me on.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
This episode is Freddie Gray. He is the deputy editor
of The Spectator and the editor of the American Spectator.
Thank you for being here, Freddie.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
Good after day runs. Lovely to be with you.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
So, Freddie, what I told my listeners from the get
go is this new party called Your Party by former
Labor leader Jeremy Corbin, that it kind of had a
very messy announcement, but polling have showed that he will
eat heavily into the labor numbers. He's at fifteen percent
in the most recent more in common poll eat at
(08:33):
Liberal Democrat numbers. When the Labor Party is looking at
where they stand in the nation as a whole, right now,
are they saying, let's move to the left to win
over those voters, or should we move to the center
to stop Nigel Farage from continuing to surge in the polls?
Speaker 2 (08:50):
Well, the Labor Polity is in an extremely peculiar and
bad position considering what a position of strength it was
in just a year ago. They won a huge majority.
But they won a huge majority in a rather sort
of freakish election because you had reform on the right
doing very well and the Conservatives doing pretty badly. I mean,
(09:10):
historically the worst of the Conservatives ever done. But the
right vote was especially was pretty much split, and so
therefore Labour got a huge majority with actually not that
big a share of the electorate, and they have had
a disastrous year. I think it's objectively fair to say
you talk to Labor people, they would admit that it's
been a disastrous year. And what happened to the Conservative
(09:34):
Party is it seems going to happen to Labor, which
is a threat, an insurgent threat from the extreme end
of the party. The left in this case, which is
Jeremy Corbyn and Zara Sultana. Who are these two? I mean, well,
your listeners probably might know about this, but Jeremy Corbyn
(09:56):
was blindsided by the announcement. He didn't even know that
this party has been having been Labor leader of the
Labor Party, and it took him about twenty four hours
to confirm that, yes, he was doing this. But nobody
quite knows if this party is real. It's a bit
like Elil Muss's America Party. It's sort of a lot
of excitement about it. A lot of people think it
(10:19):
makes sense and then it happens where it isn't like
Elon muss America Party. Is I think it is a
serious threat. You think it's a serious threat for Labor, Yes,
I mean so Labor this week recognized or said that
they would recognize Palestine at the UN. And that is
purely because of concerns. Not purely that's too cynical. That
(10:44):
is largely driven, I would say by it concerns about
internal dissent over the issue. Kirstarma does not want to
be anti Israel at all. He became leader because he
campaigned against anti Semitism of the Labor Party under Jeremy Corbyn,
(11:04):
and so he has found himself boxed in by two
hundred or so MPs who wrote a letter demanding that
Labor recognized the state of Palestine, and so they have
come up with this extraordinary fudge this week, which is
to say we will recognize the state of Palestine. If
(11:26):
there is no ceasefire and if aid doesn't reach the
Palestinians and if Harmas does not return Hosedges, we will
recognize the state of Palestine, which is odd because even
if you're very pro Palestinian, it's essentially saying you have
to keep suffering and dying and we will recognize you
as the state. But if Israel suddenly declares ceasefire floods
(11:51):
the zone with humanitarian aid, we'll go back to not
recognizing Palestine's the state. So it's completely incoherent, and it's
because they're terribly torn with this issue and they have
this threat from the left with Jeremy Colbyn and sorrow Sultoma.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Well, let me ask about Nigel Farage's It's funny because
Reform UK is not a big party. They've won a
total of seven elections since they really launched a year ago,
a year and a half ago, I guess, and already
two of their members have defected, but one was pushed
out and onee deffected.
Speaker 2 (12:22):
That gives a lot of question over.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
His ability to lead the most popular party and keep
it together, because you, I mean, to do the reforms
he's talking about, you would.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
Need a strong leader.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
And Farage is definitely positively the most consequential living British
politician right now, already in his career. But he can
he really lead to people believe that he could lead
the country.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
It's that's the question that everybody's asking on the rights
of British politics at the moment. I mean, it's odd
because you talk to concerns and they will say, yes,
we're in big trouble. Reform are doing so well, but
they are going to emplay. They're going to blow up. Look,
they're already fighting like rats in a sack. I had
you know Niger Farrage. He's a great TV guy, he's
(13:11):
a great communicator, but he's not really serious about being
Prime minister, et cetera, et cetera. They say all this,
and it's true to a certain extent. I think Farage
is a bit of an enigma. But it's certainly true
that the party keeps having fallouts and squabbles and so on,
and yet they're leading the poll. Polls just gets bigger
(13:32):
or bigger and bigger. They are now on course. You know,
if the polls are correct, they would win a general
election tomorrow. And I at the moment, I cannot see
how they are stopped. And they have this Trump like
momentum of it doesn't matter. You can have a major
scandal about reform, you know, a corruption scandal, and you
(13:54):
probably will and the electorate would just say no, that's
the leads again. Just the hatred of the two policies
is so intense that the labor and the conservative polity
is so intense in this country it's hard to exaggerate.
And they deserve it, you know. I think everybody agrees
that the labor and Conservatives deserve to be disinfranchised and disinboweled.
(14:19):
Some people would say, yeah.
Speaker 1 (14:24):
I saw my friend Ann Coulter on GBN News a
few days ago. She was on with Nigel and he
is not as I hate seeing the word far right,
but as as nationalist as I think some Americans especially
would hope that he would be because he was talking
about she was talking about deportations, and he was not
(14:45):
super firm on it. He's become more firm, but there
have been times where he was pretty much like, no,
we can't do mass deportations, and now he's like, oh,
maybe we could do some master deportetions of illegals.
Speaker 2 (14:56):
I think he's moving to the right.
Speaker 1 (14:59):
Is it that he just the last man standing or
does he genuinely is he a weather vane for the
mood of the country.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
Well, I think, funnily enough, I saw An called it
this morning and and we were discussing reform as well.
I think it's interesting. There are some Conservatives now who
are very despondent about their leader, Kemmy Badendock, who's been
a bit of a failure, been a bit of a
disaster about and yeah, they think they think that there's
the the opening for them. There's this is a small
(15:28):
section of the party but quite an influential section of
the Conservative body. They think the space that's opening up
to them is to the right of Nigel Faraj. Because
Farage is trying to professionalize his party. He has this chairman,
Zia Yusuf, who was he seemed to quit and then
he came back and no one knows what's going on
there but za Yusif is a It was.
Speaker 1 (15:49):
It was like the announcement of the KORbin Party. He
quit but no one knew it, and he came back
without anyone knowing.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
Remember it was it was, it was. It was farstical,
even by the standards of British politics. But their use
of is obviously a he's a Muslim and he's a
you know, he seems pretty conservative about immigration and so on,
but he is he doesn't want the party to be
(16:15):
the sort of toxic what he would regard as the
toxic anti immigrant party. They want to be anti immigration,
anti illegal immigration particularly, but they don't want to be
anti immigrant and they think that they are finding the
new center ground. And if you look at some of
their bust ups that they've had with this MP called
Rupert Lowe, that was partly because Elon Musk kept retweeting
(16:38):
Rupert low and not Nigel Flowers was part of the reason,
but it was also because Rupert Lowe was considered a
bit too right wing, a bit too toxic.
Speaker 1 (16:47):
So what my American answer doesn't know Rupert Lowe is
a member of Parliament for he was like to with
a Form UK party. He's very popular in his constituency
and he was probably the most concerned an immigration, fully
embracing mass deportations and all the rest of it. And
the leader of the Reform UK insisted that a year
(17:08):
ago he had bullied him, and he was ill said,
but there's really no evidence he was bullying him. It
does seem like it was kind of made up. It
was a year prior to he had not mentioned it
for a year.
Speaker 2 (17:19):
Yeah, it was a sort of cooked top meat too
eat type.
Speaker 1 (17:22):
Yeah, it was a little strange. And then since then
another member of Reform has followed him and has also
said we need mass deportations, we know no immigration. James
I can't name his last name, but his first name
is Chance. He was in Reform UK. So then you're
just backstory for those who don't know.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
Yes, so the two people who've left, the two MP's
have left, and you know they don't have many m pieces,
quite substantial that they've lost two. So they both left
because they sort of felt that the party wasn't really
representing the true anger of the British people. Was something
like that, and that shows to some Conservatives who now
(18:03):
think maybe they need to get rid of Kemmy Bayden.
I know you want to talk about her to say,
they're thinking, well, maybe the opportunity then is to team
up with people like Rupert Lowe and go really, really,
quite quite seriously to the right. Obviously that's going to
cause even more problems for the Conservative Party because a
lot of the Conservative electorate, the Conservative base are not
(18:26):
like that at all.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
Well, okay, so let's talk about the Conservatives and Cammy.
Kemmy is somebody that I've always thought was a weak link.
I've always told my British Conservative friends, you like her
because she's a black woman, and you just don't want
to be called a racist. And that is really because
she's there's nothing remotely interesting. She's not that's right, she's
not a great speaker, she's not really to where the
base of the party is and or where the mood
(18:50):
of the country is. And they just said no, wait
and see. And now now the Tories, which is horrendous
in the last election, are even lower. They're pulling around
seventeen percent and most polls, which would be I mean,
they there are polls that they estimate the toy so sorry,
the Conservatives would go under thirty seats in the House
of Presenters, which would fundamentally make them a minor party
(19:11):
even smaller on a lib dam. Why does Keemy still
have her job? Well, it's very interesting.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
Probably the reason she still has her job is because
the toys have killed so many leaders recently. They just
don't want to do it again. They can't face the
psychodrama of doing it again. They know that the public
thinks that they're a mess, and they think they'll look.
Like I said, there's some putting on it. Keeping up
appearances is part of it. But you're quite right to
(19:38):
your political antenna is absolutely right as ever, Ryan, that
I mean, Kemy is has been a complete failure so far.
She is not an impressive speaker, despite her reputation as
an impressive speaker. She's not tremendously bright, despite the fact
she constantly quotes for dis scrutin and people like that.
She she she is said to be, and I could
(20:03):
sort of vouch from it because she used to work
at the Spectator where I work. She's pretty lazy, said
not not overly across the detail, and she seems to
be nervous. I think the job is bigger than her
that The New Statesman, which is our rival magazine on
(20:23):
the left, did a very interesting profile of her last week.
It was called Kemy Isn't working and I mean it
was pretty devastating. I have to say it. A lot
of Tory quotes on and off the record saying pretty
much what all conservatives will say if you've talked to
them for long enough, that the party isn't working with her,
(20:46):
it's not going very well. And you know, my boss,
my editor, Michael Gove, he supports Kemmy still. He was
a politician himself as a minister and I had various
roles in the last government. And he thinks the problem
is more substantial. It's to do with the policy. The
(21:06):
policy itself needs to completely reform, regroup and so on.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
Well, the problem not to be an American to talk
to tell you about British politics. This problem is is
there's two essential problems. Is one Bojo was Boris Johnson
was a personality without a plan, and the people who
made the plan for him fell by the wayside, especially
including his former wife. And then the second thing is
that Rishi Sunak was like the Lady macbeth of the
(21:33):
Conservative Party, willing to kill anybody until he assumed power.
And he's kind of like the American version of Paul Ryan.
I had to hear how much of a genius he
was and then he had to lead, and it was horrendous,
and you're like, where is this what genius are we
all supposed to be looking at right now? And that
is really the essential two problems of the last couple
of years of I mean, David Cameron comes out smelling
(21:57):
like roses in comparison to these two.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
True, But I mean, now, kem you is so bad
that people are pining for Rishi because with Leaf he
was he was sort of hard working, you know, at
least he kind of. He wasn't very effective, he wasn't
very charismatic, he wasn't a great communicator, but he was
hardworking and he did have a he had a good
brain and he had.
Speaker 1 (22:18):
Well they would sell for Teresa May May and her
dance moves at this point, okay, I want to talk
about one other thing in the in the UK right now,
which is the protest over mass immigration, because it does
feel from an outsider's perspective like it is boiling over. Now.
I know there's new laws in the UK which reduce
the amount of online content people can sit there and see,
(22:39):
but this feels like it's a genuine boiling point, like
it is in Ireland, where there is kind of no
going back if things aren't reformed, and things are only
going to get worse.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
What is the actual mood of the country. The mood
of the country is quite feebrile. That you know that
it's outside these hotels where they put migrants up in
pretty comfortable luxury will be exaggerating but fairly luxurious by
the standards. Most people live in conditions on the taxpayer's
(23:12):
dime and it cost a huge amount of money. And
this is for people who've entered the country illegally, and
this drives people mad. It gets people very, very angry,
and understandably so. But I think the protest there was
these Southport murders last year where a terrible crime a
(23:33):
mad man who was of African origin but he was
in fact a British citizen. He murdered several girls in
a school while they were doing a dance class, and
obviously little girls being murdered is a very emotive subject.
Rightly so, and there were these protests and then the
(23:55):
process was sort of quickly categorized as a sort of
fun right uprising and they were anti immigrant, they were
explicitly anti immigrant, and unpleasant people said unpleasant things and
so on. But that then triggered this clampdown on speech
ordered by Kis Darmer kiss Armer, the Prime Minister who
doesn't he's sort of has the power it is, but
(24:16):
he told judges to be particularly harsh in their sentencing
of people who got carried away in these anti immigrant protests.
And so you've seen what Jade Vance has raised this
a few times. You've seen people in jail for things
that they've tweeted, and Donald Trump was made aware of
it this week, and kiss Armer, sitting next to Donald
(24:39):
Trump this week, kind of played it down and said, no, no,
we're not censoring anyone. That's just not true. And then
to add on top of it another layer of complexity,
you have this online safety bill that came in this week,
and it's rather clever because what it's made anybody who's
a bit worried about the hate speech element of it,
who thinks maybe censorship, they've made it all about pornography
(25:03):
and children. So if you say you're worried about it,
people go, oh, you're in favor of pornography for children,
are you? And no, let's the answer. Most people are
not in favor of pornography for children. Some people are.
They shouldn't do, but but they. But the point is
is that that you know, rather than doing a law
(25:24):
about online pornography, they also made it about hate and
so you know, you cannot access hateful content unless you
explicitly sign up for it, which you are unlikely to do.
So it's a I mean, there are serious free speech concerns.
And kirstinand has now twice in front of Donald Trump
(25:46):
said no, no, no, we have a proud tradition of
free speech and our country far older than you, you know,
sort of sort of patronizing tone, and and got away
with it to a certain extent that I do get
the impression that we would. Jordan seems to be raising
the America's concerns about that law. And I think the
(26:09):
Trump led Republican Party is fully aware that Kis Starmer
is not being honest when he says that there's no
censorship in Britain.
Speaker 1 (26:17):
Yeah, that's a conversation American conservas are having, and a
number of our states do have anti abortion or anti
pornography laws for children, and there's all age verification. It's
attached to age verification, so you have to put in
your driver's license to go look at pornography. So we
don't have that same and we won't have any hate
speech laws in this country. But this all comes with
(26:39):
the like just weeks after the conversation over grooming gangs
and the and kre Stormer finally kicking and dragging doing
a national investigation into grimming gangs. So it does feel
like it's Domino's Like it's a domino effect that is just.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
Getting bigger and bigger and bigger, and one.
Speaker 1 (26:59):
Thing is leading the mind of the public into the other.
It's not like in America, where well we have a
much shorter attention span, I think than the British public does,
but we can get distracted with Epstein or you know,
something else, and no one talks to tariffs anymore. No
one talks about this anymore because we're in the moment,
the conversion of the moment, the conversation of the British
moment constantly feels like it's leading up to anything. And
(27:22):
you've heard conversation. I've heard rumors, and I don't know
if any of it's true. So I wanted to ask you,
are is there a possibility of leading to like a
real violent riot in the UK over these migrants.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
Yes, I think it's quite possible an incident could happen.
There's a lot of fear at the moment over the summer,
with the heat and so on. A violent incident could happen,
and it could sort of crescendo into something truly terrible,
a massive riot of some sort. I tend to think probably,
(27:57):
not probably, things will just muddle on. The British not
very revolutionary in temperament. We've never had one, and so
we tend but there is certainly a deep well of
anger that we saw last year with Southport, and we
could see again. And people feel to use an overword,
(28:19):
overused word, we feel gas lit. We feel we're told
we don't have any problem with we don't have any
free speech laws. We do have laws against free speech.
We you know, we are told that the boat's crisis
is being resolved, the small boat's illegal crossings by small boat.
We're told that they're deporting people by thousand, but and
yet everybody knows numbers are going up. So we we are.
(28:43):
It's interesting you say that about Americans having a less
ault retention. Man, I think we're just slightly down upstream, downstream.
Now you're downstream from us in terms of Internet culture,
and we are. We are sort of at a I say,
twenty sixteen to twenty eighteen social media phase where everybody's
(29:03):
losing their minds. We're not quite your level of you know,
cotfal Post wherever America.
Speaker 1 (29:10):
Is a phrennier. You just have ADHD at the moment.
So I mean we're very instprumental. The story at the
Internet clauses on people we too.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
Have We're just we've got we're just entering ADHD properly
a the hdl FLA we're fall on.
Speaker 1 (29:24):
In straight jackets. Well, Freddy, where can people go to
read more about what you write about and what you
talk about?
Speaker 2 (29:33):
Well, I've run, so I run as we have Spectator
will which is our US edition. So for if you
want my obnoxiously British takes on American politics, you can
read them there. And then obviously Spectator dot co dot
UK is our British site for analysis on British politics,
but you can get it at the Spectator dot com
or Spectator dot co dot u K.
Speaker 1 (29:54):
Well, thank you for dealing with my obnoxious American takes
on British politics.
Speaker 2 (29:58):
But no I am at all, and I mean you'll
far more on the money than ninety eight percent of
British commentation. Well, the funny the good thing.
Speaker 1 (30:05):
The funny thing is is that I'm one of the
few Americans who knows any about British politics. So that's
that makes it entertaining. But thank you for coming on
this podcast, and I enjoyed it and I hope to
have you on again soon. You're listening to It's a
Numbers Game with Ryan Grodski.
Speaker 2 (30:20):
We'll be right back.
Speaker 1 (30:24):
And now it's time for the ask Me anythink segment
of the podcast. If you want a part of the
Ask Me Anything segment, emai me Ryan at Numbers Game
podcast dot com. That's ryanat Numbers Game podcast dot com.
I love getting these questions. I look forward to them
every week. Is actually the favorite part of the show.
This one comes from Robert diaz Arista. I hope I'm
pronouncing your last name correctly, so thank you for listening
(30:46):
to this podcast. As I Butcher everyone's last name, and
he says, Hi, Ryan, I really enjoy your podcast and
appreciate you taking questions. It really makes the data so
much more digestible. Trump won twenty eight percent of the
LGBT vote in twenty two twenty, almost doubling his share
from twenty sixteen and by far the best performance of
any Republican. Gay and lesbian Republicans like myself were optimistic
(31:07):
about twenty twenty four, and I was at a conference
for log Cabin Republicans in June, right before Biden dropped out,
where Rick Ranow and Charles Moran and the log Cabin
who was the log Cabin president. We're showing data where
they said that they were going to exceed that number
and suggests that forty two percent was the new benchmark.
This obviously proved wishful thinking, but I was expecting us
(31:30):
to improve from twenty twenty. Instead, the vote share collapsed
to twelve percent. A lot of my friends talked it
down to now having derange liberals calling themselves queer as
they catch all and dilute the vote of the actual
LGBT voters. But I believe that they are mostly trying
to cope, and I've never seen any data to back
that up. Do you have any data that might answer
(31:50):
what happened? Okay, Robert, great question. So I will say
this about the LGBT vote. I I hate using that acronym,
but of like gay and lesbian voters primarily the biggest
thing behind that twelve percent is exit polls that were
taken immediately after the election of the major institutions catalyst
Pew Research, David Shore Data. No one else even asked
(32:15):
how gays and lesbians voted, so they didn't look at
voter rolls and then try to match that with voting
intention and precinct results. So I don't believe that twelve
percent number because it's exit polls. And remember it's self identifying.
So think of your average let's say, gay Trump voter. Now,
(32:36):
there are a lot of you know, out and proud
gay Trump voters. I know quite a few of them,
but there are also a lot of them who don't
care to just make their gen their sexual preference, their personality.
So they may not have told a pollster leaving an
at exit site that they are gay. They may have
(32:56):
not answered at all, or they may have just said right,
or they may have, you know, just left it alone
and not answered at all and left and didn't respond,
And the exit poles and the media aftermath were very incorrect.
Remember the exit poles right after the election also so
that Trump didn't gain much with the Latino vote, which
was clearly not true. So I wouldn't put that much
(33:21):
stock in that exit pole. I don't think that it's
I don't believe the twelve percent number. I don't believe.
I don't believe that he did worse, considering he did
better with basically every single group, and especially young voters.
And there's more young gay people than there are older
gay people. So I would chalk it up to that
(33:41):
that don't believe the exit pole numbers. It's probably not correct.
That's my best number for you, And until a major
firm study is how gays and lesbian's voted, I would
assume that they are that they voted to the right
of where they did in twenty twenty. Thank you so
much for listening to this episode. Please like and subscribe
on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast wherever you get your podcasts,
and I will see you guys next time
Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Grodowski. Thank
you all for being here. So I have some polling
data that I think you liked hear, and then I
want to get to the main topic to discuss. But
on the polling data, a poll from Equis Research came out. Now,
this is a liberal polling firm that specializes in American
Hispanics and the Hispanic vote.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
And they're not the most accurate.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
They did estimate that Trump was going to lose the
Hispanic vote in swing states by eighteen points in twenty
twenty four, and he only lost them by ten points.
So it's not a great firm, but they put out
some data that I think is important because no one
else has put it out so far. So I want
you to take it with a grain of salts, but
understand it's important. It may be like, you know, liberal wishcasting,
(00:49):
but they're the only ones asking this question as we
go into the twenty twenty six election. So the poll
looks at Latinos that voted for Biden in twenty twenty
and then Trump in twenty twenty four. So the first
first part of the poll is they looked at Latinos
that back from twenty twenty twenty four, and they find
that they are less likely to show up in twenty
(01:12):
twenty six than Latinos that voted for Harris. Now, that
shouldn't be shocking because Trump's support came from younger men,
it came from people without college degrees, people who don't
vote as often lower pensity voters, so it's not surprising
that they're not showing up in huge numbers like maybe
college educated Latinos are, or Latino senior citizens or women.
The Pole also finds so that Latinos disapprove of Trump's
(01:34):
tariffs and is handling of the economy. Now, once again,
that's also not surprising because it's in line with every
other poll. People feel like the tariffs are attacks and
that you know, the media has been pushing this idea
that there's a recession around the corner that they're wishing
into existence, and they're all affected by it. Everyone's affected
by it because they're nervous and they're uncertain. Nonetheless, the
(01:56):
Pole states that disapprove for Trump's for Trump's handling the
economy has not transferred over to broad support for the Democrats.
And this is where it gets really interesting. The poll
found that among Latinos who voted for Trump in twenty
twenty four, only eight percent say they're committed to voting
for Democrats in twenty twenty six. In the House and Senate.
(02:18):
Among Biden defectors, those are Latinos that voted for Biden
in twenty twenty and then Trump in twenty twenty four,
the numbers who are committed to voting for Democrats are
at thirty one percent. Another twenty percent say they're undecided.
That means one in three Latinos who consistently voted for
Democrats up till twenty twenty four are saying they're switching
back to the Democratic Party. That may seem like a
(02:40):
high number, and it's decently high, especially if you're in
a heavily Latino district that barely voted for Trump, like
Nelly Poe in New Jersey's ninth district or Gave Vasquez
in New Mexico's second. But it's not where Democrats really
want to be. Democrats were always expecting some kind of
revival with their former voters who took a chance on Trump.
After all, like the consequence of being an incumbent and
(03:04):
being in office is you actually have to achieve something,
and there's always an area, a gray area of disappointment
with all voters, for all candidates, whether it doesn't matter
if you're Obama or Biden or Trump. There's always going
to be someone who supported you who feels disappointed in you.
And that's just the name of the game, and every
elected official has that. But that being said, Democrats really
(03:26):
needed to get to a space where they were winning
a majority of Biden Trump Latinos and they're nowhere near
that number, which means maybe we've hit a new floor
of support for Latinos who back Republicans, and that the
growth we saw in twenty twenty four is basically here
to stay.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
Now.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
I've had several analysts on the show, you know, Zachary
Denini said the same thing, and other data scientists have
sat there and said that they expected Republicans support among
Latinos to continue to grow and basically some of the
changes that we saw in red states like Texas and
Arizona and blue states like California, New York, New Jersey,
and Illinois could be here to stay. Very important data
(04:08):
set will have a lot more as the election comes forward,
but this is the first poll to look at this
crucial group and you know, you may not think this
is a huge win for Republicans. It's certainly not a
home run, but it is not a home run for Democrats,
especially the numbers that they were hoping to get to. Okay,
So for the main topic of this episode, I asked
you guys several months ago if you wanted me to
(04:29):
hit on politics from abroad, especially in Europe, and you
said yes. So that's what I'm gonna do today. The
UK has had a series of major political upheavals in
the last few months that the American media has ignored,
but you should pay attention to. First, and possibly the
most consequential piece of information is that the former leader
of the Labor Party, Jeremy Corbin, announced that he intends
to create his own new far left party called Your Party.
(04:53):
The new party will have a host of far left positions,
especially related to the Israel and Palestine conflict. Now, if
you don't remember Jeremy Corbyn, he was the leader of
the Party of the Labor Party for four and a
half years and he was one of the most viscerally
anti Semitic mainstream candidates in all of Europe and the
Labor Party did terribly under his leadership. Throughout his political career,
(05:16):
Corbin has supported things like overturning convictions of Islamic terrorists
who bombed the Israeli embassy in London. He supported the
Iranian regime. He stood next to speakers at an event
where they call the BBC Zionist liars. It was so
bad that the UK Human Rights watchdog group so that
the Labor Party was responsible for quote, unlawful acts of
(05:36):
harassment and discrimination during Corbyn's four and a half years
as the party leader. This is at a time when
activist within the Labor Party said things like all Jews
in Israel should be relocated to the US. That they
also said that the creation of Israel is what Hitler
really wanted and that Jews were really responsible for the
Atlantic slave trade. Corbin was kicked out of the Labor Party,
(05:57):
but you can tell that who his new coalition is
based on the people who've been saying they're going to
join your party, and they're all Muslim MPs. They're all
Muslim members of Parliament. Other policies championed by your party
will include wealth redistribution, nationalizing industries, and actions against climate
change basically your standard socialism. Now your party doesn't have
(06:19):
a lot of support, especially not compared to Nija Faraj's
Reform UK, but they're eating away at Labor parties already
falling numbers. A Fine Out Now poll from July seventeenth
has Reform UK this is the Nigel Faraj new nationalist
populist party at thirty four percent, The Conservatives are known
as the Tories, are at seventeen percent, and Labor is
(06:42):
tied with your party at fifteen percent. Remember, Labor is
the one the last election, so being tied for fourth
or third is not where you want to be. Other
left wing parties like the Liberal Democrats and Greens are
also losing support to Korbyn's party. The growing instability among
the left is worrying Labor leaders as their poll number sink.
(07:04):
A July twenty twenty five poll from YUGA found that
Labour's unfabrile writing is sixty six percent and their favorable
writing is only twenty three percent. That's worse than both
the Conservatives and the Reform UK leaders numbers. Labor leaders
are asking themselves a question, do they try to tack
to the center and even the right, especially on issues
(07:26):
like immigration to win over former voters who are moved
over to Nijel Faraj, Or do they move to the
far left to keep Jeremy corbynet Bay and basically win
over some liberal Democrats and some green voters. In the
midst of all this news from the far left are
the ongoing protests against mass immigration throughout the country, and
there's a reasonable question of whether things are getting so
(07:46):
bad that we may expect to see violence break out
in multiple cities. With me to discuss as the British
journalist who knows what's happening in the mother country, and
he'll be up to discuss.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
Next with me on.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
This episode is Freddie Gray. He is the deputy editor
of The Spectator and the editor of the American Spectator.
Thank you for being here, Freddie.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
Good after day runs. Lovely to be with you.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
So, Freddie, what I told my listeners from the get
go is this new party called Your Party by former
Labor leader Jeremy Corbin, that it kind of had a
very messy announcement, but polling have showed that he will
eat heavily into the labor numbers. He's at fifteen percent
in the most recent more in common poll eat at
(08:33):
Liberal Democrat numbers. When the Labor Party is looking at
where they stand in the nation as a whole, right now,
are they saying, let's move to the left to win
over those voters, or should we move to the center
to stop Nigel Farage from continuing to surge in the polls?
Speaker 2 (08:50):
Well, the Labor Polity is in an extremely peculiar and
bad position considering what a position of strength it was
in just a year ago. They won a huge majority.
But they won a huge majority in a rather sort
of freakish election because you had reform on the right
doing very well and the Conservatives doing pretty badly. I mean,
(09:10):
historically the worst of the Conservatives ever done. But the
right vote was especially was pretty much split, and so
therefore Labour got a huge majority with actually not that
big a share of the electorate, and they have had
a disastrous year. I think it's objectively fair to say
you talk to Labor people, they would admit that it's
been a disastrous year. And what happened to the Conservative
(09:34):
Party is it seems going to happen to Labor, which
is a threat, an insurgent threat from the extreme end
of the party. The left in this case, which is
Jeremy Corbyn and Zara Sultana. Who are these two? I mean, well,
your listeners probably might know about this, but Jeremy Corbyn
(09:56):
was blindsided by the announcement. He didn't even know that
this party has been having been Labor leader of the
Labor Party, and it took him about twenty four hours
to confirm that, yes, he was doing this. But nobody
quite knows if this party is real. It's a bit
like Elil Muss's America Party. It's sort of a lot
of excitement about it. A lot of people think it
(10:19):
makes sense and then it happens where it isn't like
Elon muss America Party. Is I think it is a
serious threat. You think it's a serious threat for Labor, Yes,
I mean so Labor this week recognized or said that
they would recognize Palestine at the UN. And that is
purely because of concerns. Not purely that's too cynical. That
(10:44):
is largely driven, I would say by it concerns about
internal dissent over the issue. Kirstarma does not want to
be anti Israel at all. He became leader because he
campaigned against anti Semitism of the Labor Party under Jeremy Corbyn,
(11:04):
and so he has found himself boxed in by two
hundred or so MPs who wrote a letter demanding that
Labor recognized the state of Palestine, and so they have
come up with this extraordinary fudge this week, which is
to say we will recognize the state of Palestine. If
(11:26):
there is no ceasefire and if aid doesn't reach the
Palestinians and if Harmas does not return Hosedges, we will
recognize the state of Palestine, which is odd because even
if you're very pro Palestinian, it's essentially saying you have
to keep suffering and dying and we will recognize you
as the state. But if Israel suddenly declares ceasefire floods
(11:51):
the zone with humanitarian aid, we'll go back to not
recognizing Palestine's the state. So it's completely incoherent, and it's
because they're terribly torn with this issue and they have
this threat from the left with Jeremy Colbyn and sorrow Sultoma.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Well, let me ask about Nigel Farage's It's funny because
Reform UK is not a big party. They've won a
total of seven elections since they really launched a year ago,
a year and a half ago, I guess, and already
two of their members have defected, but one was pushed
out and onee deffected.
Speaker 2 (12:22):
That gives a lot of question over.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
His ability to lead the most popular party and keep
it together, because you, I mean, to do the reforms
he's talking about, you would.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
Need a strong leader.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
And Farage is definitely positively the most consequential living British
politician right now, already in his career. But he can
he really lead to people believe that he could lead
the country.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
It's that's the question that everybody's asking on the rights
of British politics at the moment. I mean, it's odd
because you talk to concerns and they will say, yes,
we're in big trouble. Reform are doing so well, but
they are going to emplay. They're going to blow up. Look,
they're already fighting like rats in a sack. I had
you know Niger Farrage. He's a great TV guy, he's
(13:11):
a great communicator, but he's not really serious about being
Prime minister, et cetera, et cetera. They say all this,
and it's true to a certain extent. I think Farage
is a bit of an enigma. But it's certainly true
that the party keeps having fallouts and squabbles and so on,
and yet they're leading the poll. Polls just gets bigger
(13:32):
or bigger and bigger. They are now on course. You know,
if the polls are correct, they would win a general
election tomorrow. And I at the moment, I cannot see
how they are stopped. And they have this Trump like
momentum of it doesn't matter. You can have a major
scandal about reform, you know, a corruption scandal, and you
(13:54):
probably will and the electorate would just say no, that's
the leads again. Just the hatred of the two policies
is so intense that the labor and the conservative polity
is so intense in this country it's hard to exaggerate.
And they deserve it, you know. I think everybody agrees
that the labor and Conservatives deserve to be disinfranchised and disinboweled.
(14:19):
Some people would say, yeah.
Speaker 1 (14:24):
I saw my friend Ann Coulter on GBN News a
few days ago. She was on with Nigel and he
is not as I hate seeing the word far right,
but as as nationalist as I think some Americans especially
would hope that he would be because he was talking
about she was talking about deportations, and he was not
(14:45):
super firm on it. He's become more firm, but there
have been times where he was pretty much like, no,
we can't do mass deportations, and now he's like, oh,
maybe we could do some master deportetions of illegals.
Speaker 2 (14:56):
I think he's moving to the right.
Speaker 1 (14:59):
Is it that he just the last man standing or
does he genuinely is he a weather vane for the
mood of the country.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
Well, I think, funnily enough, I saw An called it
this morning and and we were discussing reform as well.
I think it's interesting. There are some Conservatives now who
are very despondent about their leader, Kemmy Badendock, who's been
a bit of a failure, been a bit of a
disaster about and yeah, they think they think that there's
the the opening for them. There's this is a small
(15:28):
section of the party but quite an influential section of
the Conservative body. They think the space that's opening up
to them is to the right of Nigel Faraj. Because
Farage is trying to professionalize his party. He has this chairman,
Zia Yusuf, who was he seemed to quit and then
he came back and no one knows what's going on
there but za Yusif is a It was.
Speaker 1 (15:49):
It was like the announcement of the KORbin Party. He
quit but no one knew it, and he came back
without anyone knowing.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
Remember it was it was, it was. It was farstical,
even by the standards of British politics. But their use
of is obviously a he's a Muslim and he's a
you know, he seems pretty conservative about immigration and so on,
but he is he doesn't want the party to be
(16:15):
the sort of toxic what he would regard as the
toxic anti immigrant party. They want to be anti immigration,
anti illegal immigration particularly, but they don't want to be
anti immigrant and they think that they are finding the
new center ground. And if you look at some of
their bust ups that they've had with this MP called
Rupert Lowe, that was partly because Elon Musk kept retweeting
(16:38):
Rupert low and not Nigel Flowers was part of the reason,
but it was also because Rupert Lowe was considered a
bit too right wing, a bit too toxic.
Speaker 1 (16:47):
So what my American answer doesn't know Rupert Lowe is
a member of Parliament for he was like to with
a Form UK party. He's very popular in his constituency
and he was probably the most concerned an immigration, fully
embracing mass deportations and all the rest of it. And
the leader of the Reform UK insisted that a year
(17:08):
ago he had bullied him, and he was ill said,
but there's really no evidence he was bullying him. It
does seem like it was kind of made up. It
was a year prior to he had not mentioned it
for a year.
Speaker 2 (17:19):
Yeah, it was a sort of cooked top meat too
eat type.
Speaker 1 (17:22):
Yeah, it was a little strange. And then since then
another member of Reform has followed him and has also
said we need mass deportations, we know no immigration. James
I can't name his last name, but his first name
is Chance. He was in Reform UK. So then you're
just backstory for those who don't know.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
Yes, so the two people who've left, the two MP's
have left, and you know they don't have many m pieces,
quite substantial that they've lost two. So they both left
because they sort of felt that the party wasn't really
representing the true anger of the British people. Was something
like that, and that shows to some Conservatives who now
(18:03):
think maybe they need to get rid of Kemmy Bayden.
I know you want to talk about her to say,
they're thinking, well, maybe the opportunity then is to team
up with people like Rupert Lowe and go really, really,
quite quite seriously to the right. Obviously that's going to
cause even more problems for the Conservative Party because a
lot of the Conservative electorate, the Conservative base are not
(18:26):
like that at all.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
Well, okay, so let's talk about the Conservatives and Cammy.
Kemmy is somebody that I've always thought was a weak link.
I've always told my British Conservative friends, you like her
because she's a black woman, and you just don't want
to be called a racist. And that is really because
she's there's nothing remotely interesting. She's not that's right, she's
not a great speaker, she's not really to where the
base of the party is and or where the mood
(18:50):
of the country is. And they just said no, wait
and see. And now now the Tories, which is horrendous
in the last election, are even lower. They're pulling around
seventeen percent and most polls, which would be I mean,
they there are polls that they estimate the toy so sorry,
the Conservatives would go under thirty seats in the House
of Presenters, which would fundamentally make them a minor party
(19:11):
even smaller on a lib dam. Why does Keemy still
have her job? Well, it's very interesting.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
Probably the reason she still has her job is because
the toys have killed so many leaders recently. They just
don't want to do it again. They can't face the
psychodrama of doing it again. They know that the public
thinks that they're a mess, and they think they'll look.
Like I said, there's some putting on it. Keeping up
appearances is part of it. But you're quite right to
(19:38):
your political antenna is absolutely right as ever, Ryan, that
I mean, Kemy is has been a complete failure so far.
She is not an impressive speaker, despite her reputation as
an impressive speaker. She's not tremendously bright, despite the fact
she constantly quotes for dis scrutin and people like that.
She she she is said to be, and I could
(20:03):
sort of vouch from it because she used to work
at the Spectator where I work. She's pretty lazy, said
not not overly across the detail, and she seems to
be nervous. I think the job is bigger than her
that The New Statesman, which is our rival magazine on
(20:23):
the left, did a very interesting profile of her last week.
It was called Kemy Isn't working and I mean it
was pretty devastating. I have to say it. A lot
of Tory quotes on and off the record saying pretty
much what all conservatives will say if you've talked to
them for long enough, that the party isn't working with her,
(20:46):
it's not going very well. And you know, my boss,
my editor, Michael Gove, he supports Kemmy still. He was
a politician himself as a minister and I had various
roles in the last government. And he thinks the problem
is more substantial. It's to do with the policy. The
(21:06):
policy itself needs to completely reform, regroup and so on.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
Well, the problem not to be an American to talk
to tell you about British politics. This problem is is
there's two essential problems. Is one Bojo was Boris Johnson
was a personality without a plan, and the people who
made the plan for him fell by the wayside, especially
including his former wife. And then the second thing is
that Rishi Sunak was like the Lady macbeth of the
(21:33):
Conservative Party, willing to kill anybody until he assumed power.
And he's kind of like the American version of Paul Ryan.
I had to hear how much of a genius he
was and then he had to lead, and it was horrendous,
and you're like, where is this what genius are we
all supposed to be looking at right now? And that
is really the essential two problems of the last couple
of years of I mean, David Cameron comes out smelling
(21:57):
like roses in comparison to these two.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
True, But I mean, now, kem you is so bad
that people are pining for Rishi because with Leaf he
was he was sort of hard working, you know, at
least he kind of. He wasn't very effective, he wasn't
very charismatic, he wasn't a great communicator, but he was
hardworking and he did have a he had a good
brain and he had.
Speaker 1 (22:18):
Well they would sell for Teresa May May and her
dance moves at this point, okay, I want to talk
about one other thing in the in the UK right now,
which is the protest over mass immigration, because it does
feel from an outsider's perspective like it is boiling over. Now.
I know there's new laws in the UK which reduce
the amount of online content people can sit there and see,
(22:39):
but this feels like it's a genuine boiling point, like
it is in Ireland, where there is kind of no
going back if things aren't reformed, and things are only
going to get worse.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
What is the actual mood of the country. The mood
of the country is quite feebrile. That you know that
it's outside these hotels where they put migrants up in
pretty comfortable luxury will be exaggerating but fairly luxurious by
the standards. Most people live in conditions on the taxpayer's
(23:12):
dime and it cost a huge amount of money. And
this is for people who've entered the country illegally, and
this drives people mad. It gets people very, very angry,
and understandably so. But I think the protest there was
these Southport murders last year where a terrible crime a
(23:33):
mad man who was of African origin but he was
in fact a British citizen. He murdered several girls in
a school while they were doing a dance class, and
obviously little girls being murdered is a very emotive subject.
Rightly so, and there were these protests and then the
(23:55):
process was sort of quickly categorized as a sort of
fun right uprising and they were anti immigrant, they were
explicitly anti immigrant, and unpleasant people said unpleasant things and
so on. But that then triggered this clampdown on speech
ordered by Kis Darmer kiss Armer, the Prime Minister who
doesn't he's sort of has the power it is, but
(24:16):
he told judges to be particularly harsh in their sentencing
of people who got carried away in these anti immigrant protests.
And so you've seen what Jade Vance has raised this
a few times. You've seen people in jail for things
that they've tweeted, and Donald Trump was made aware of
it this week, and kiss Armer, sitting next to Donald
(24:39):
Trump this week, kind of played it down and said, no, no,
we're not censoring anyone. That's just not true. And then
to add on top of it another layer of complexity,
you have this online safety bill that came in this week,
and it's rather clever because what it's made anybody who's
a bit worried about the hate speech element of it,
who thinks maybe censorship, they've made it all about pornography
(25:03):
and children. So if you say you're worried about it,
people go, oh, you're in favor of pornography for children,
are you? And no, let's the answer. Most people are
not in favor of pornography for children. Some people are.
They shouldn't do, but but they. But the point is
is that that you know, rather than doing a law
(25:24):
about online pornography, they also made it about hate and
so you know, you cannot access hateful content unless you
explicitly sign up for it, which you are unlikely to do.
So it's a I mean, there are serious free speech concerns.
And kirstinand has now twice in front of Donald Trump
(25:46):
said no, no, no, we have a proud tradition of
free speech and our country far older than you, you know,
sort of sort of patronizing tone, and and got away
with it to a certain extent that I do get
the impression that we would. Jordan seems to be raising
the America's concerns about that law. And I think the
(26:09):
Trump led Republican Party is fully aware that Kis Starmer
is not being honest when he says that there's no
censorship in Britain.
Speaker 1 (26:17):
Yeah, that's a conversation American conservas are having, and a
number of our states do have anti abortion or anti
pornography laws for children, and there's all age verification. It's
attached to age verification, so you have to put in
your driver's license to go look at pornography. So we
don't have that same and we won't have any hate
speech laws in this country. But this all comes with
(26:39):
the like just weeks after the conversation over grooming gangs
and the and kre Stormer finally kicking and dragging doing
a national investigation into grimming gangs. So it does feel
like it's Domino's Like it's a domino effect that is just.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
Getting bigger and bigger and bigger, and one.
Speaker 1 (26:59):
Thing is leading the mind of the public into the other.
It's not like in America, where well we have a
much shorter attention span, I think than the British public does,
but we can get distracted with Epstein or you know,
something else, and no one talks to tariffs anymore. No
one talks about this anymore because we're in the moment,
the conversion of the moment, the conversation of the British
moment constantly feels like it's leading up to anything. And
(27:22):
you've heard conversation. I've heard rumors, and I don't know
if any of it's true. So I wanted to ask you,
are is there a possibility of leading to like a
real violent riot in the UK over these migrants.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
Yes, I think it's quite possible an incident could happen.
There's a lot of fear at the moment over the summer,
with the heat and so on. A violent incident could happen,
and it could sort of crescendo into something truly terrible,
a massive riot of some sort. I tend to think probably,
(27:57):
not probably, things will just muddle on. The British not
very revolutionary in temperament. We've never had one, and so
we tend but there is certainly a deep well of
anger that we saw last year with Southport, and we
could see again. And people feel to use an overword,
(28:19):
overused word, we feel gas lit. We feel we're told
we don't have any problem with we don't have any
free speech laws. We do have laws against free speech.
We you know, we are told that the boat's crisis
is being resolved, the small boat's illegal crossings by small boat.
We're told that they're deporting people by thousand, but and
yet everybody knows numbers are going up. So we we are.
(28:43):
It's interesting you say that about Americans having a less
ault retention. Man, I think we're just slightly down upstream, downstream.
Now you're downstream from us in terms of Internet culture,
and we are. We are sort of at a I say,
twenty sixteen to twenty eighteen social media phase where everybody's
(29:03):
losing their minds. We're not quite your level of you know,
cotfal Post wherever America.
Speaker 1 (29:10):
Is a phrennier. You just have ADHD at the moment.
So I mean we're very instprumental. The story at the
Internet clauses on people we too.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
Have We're just we've got we're just entering ADHD properly
a the hdl FLA we're fall on.
Speaker 1 (29:24):
In straight jackets. Well, Freddy, where can people go to
read more about what you write about and what you
talk about?
Speaker 2 (29:33):
Well, I've run, so I run as we have Spectator
will which is our US edition. So for if you
want my obnoxiously British takes on American politics, you can
read them there. And then obviously Spectator dot co dot
UK is our British site for analysis on British politics,
but you can get it at the Spectator dot com
or Spectator dot co dot u K.
Speaker 1 (29:54):
Well, thank you for dealing with my obnoxious American takes
on British politics.
Speaker 2 (29:58):
But no I am at all, and I mean you'll
far more on the money than ninety eight percent of
British commentation. Well, the funny the good thing.
Speaker 1 (30:05):
The funny thing is is that I'm one of the
few Americans who knows any about British politics. So that's
that makes it entertaining. But thank you for coming on
this podcast, and I enjoyed it and I hope to
have you on again soon. You're listening to It's a
Numbers Game with Ryan Grodski.
Speaker 2 (30:20):
We'll be right back.
Speaker 1 (30:24):
And now it's time for the ask Me anythink segment
of the podcast. If you want a part of the
Ask Me Anything segment, emai me Ryan at Numbers Game
podcast dot com. That's ryanat Numbers Game podcast dot com.
I love getting these questions. I look forward to them
every week. Is actually the favorite part of the show.
This one comes from Robert diaz Arista. I hope I'm
pronouncing your last name correctly, so thank you for listening
(30:46):
to this podcast. As I Butcher everyone's last name, and
he says, Hi, Ryan, I really enjoy your podcast and
appreciate you taking questions. It really makes the data so
much more digestible. Trump won twenty eight percent of the
LGBT vote in twenty two twenty, almost doubling his share
from twenty sixteen and by far the best performance of
any Republican. Gay and lesbian Republicans like myself were optimistic
(31:07):
about twenty twenty four, and I was at a conference
for log Cabin Republicans in June, right before Biden dropped out,
where Rick Ranow and Charles Moran and the log Cabin
who was the log Cabin president. We're showing data where
they said that they were going to exceed that number
and suggests that forty two percent was the new benchmark.
This obviously proved wishful thinking, but I was expecting us
(31:30):
to improve from twenty twenty. Instead, the vote share collapsed
to twelve percent. A lot of my friends talked it
down to now having derange liberals calling themselves queer as
they catch all and dilute the vote of the actual
LGBT voters. But I believe that they are mostly trying
to cope, and I've never seen any data to back
that up. Do you have any data that might answer
(31:50):
what happened? Okay, Robert, great question. So I will say
this about the LGBT vote. I I hate using that acronym,
but of like gay and lesbian voters primarily the biggest
thing behind that twelve percent is exit polls that were
taken immediately after the election of the major institutions catalyst
Pew Research, David Shore Data. No one else even asked
(32:15):
how gays and lesbians voted, so they didn't look at
voter rolls and then try to match that with voting
intention and precinct results. So I don't believe that twelve
percent number because it's exit polls. And remember it's self identifying.
So think of your average let's say, gay Trump voter. Now,
(32:36):
there are a lot of you know, out and proud
gay Trump voters. I know quite a few of them,
but there are also a lot of them who don't
care to just make their gen their sexual preference, their personality.
So they may not have told a pollster leaving an
at exit site that they are gay. They may have
(32:56):
not answered at all, or they may have just said right,
or they may have, you know, just left it alone
and not answered at all and left and didn't respond,
And the exit poles and the media aftermath were very incorrect.
Remember the exit poles right after the election also so
that Trump didn't gain much with the Latino vote, which
was clearly not true. So I wouldn't put that much
(33:21):
stock in that exit pole. I don't think that it's
I don't believe the twelve percent number. I don't believe.
I don't believe that he did worse, considering he did
better with basically every single group, and especially young voters.
And there's more young gay people than there are older
gay people. So I would chalk it up to that
(33:41):
that don't believe the exit pole numbers. It's probably not correct.
That's my best number for you, And until a major
firm study is how gays and lesbian's voted, I would
assume that they are that they voted to the right
of where they did in twenty twenty. Thank you so
much for listening to this episode. Please like and subscribe
on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast wherever you get your podcasts,
and I will see you guys next time
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