August 21, 2025 • 26 mins
Ryan dives deep into the tangled world of gerrymandering, focusing on California’s latest proposed map from Governor Gavin Newsom. He traces the history of political redistricting back to the 1990s, examining the strategies Democrats and Republicans have used over the decades. Girdusky also explores how Newsom’s map could reshape California’s political future and answers listener questions in a lively 'Ask Me Anything' segment. It's a Numbers Game is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Monday & Thursday.
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome back to a Numbers Game podcast with Brian Grodski.
Thank you all for being here again on this episode. Okay, so,
I know I've talked about this issue in the past
and I like to have a variety, but I have
to do a deep dive episode on jerrymandering because of
Gavin Newsom and California. That's right, California, here we come. Okay.
Over the weekend, Democrats in the state unveil their new
(00:24):
proposed partisan jerrymandered map. Now, remember, California has fifty two
congressional districts, the most of any state. Under the current map,
Democrats hold forty three seats and Republicans have nine. In
the twenty twenty four election, President Trump won eleven seats.
There are two Trump seats that have a Democratic congressman,
(00:46):
the thirteenth district, which is represented by Democrat Adam Gray.
He won his election by five hundred and fifty five
votes out of one hundred and thirty something that I was
in casts it was a very very tight election and
Josh Harder in California ninth is the Democrats. So the
state begins with overwhelming Democrat and Democratic congressional Democratic congressman
(01:07):
being disproportionately represented compared to the percentage that President Trump
received statewide. Trump won thirty eight percent of the state
wide vote, Republicans hold just nineteen percent of the seats.
It's one of actually the most extreme partisan jerry manders
when you look at it like that, aside from maybe
(01:29):
like New Jersey, New Mexico, and Illinois, even though it's
quote unquote New Jersey in Illinois, New Jersey and California
have quote unquote independent maps. I'm not including like Vermont,
which only has one congressional district. You know, that doesn't
that doesn't matter. But California has a very very very
partisanly jerrymandered map to begin with, that underrepresents Republicans voting
(01:52):
attentions statewide. But because of Texas Republican's decision to jerrymander,
they're trying Texas is I said, this is less supposed
reminding five new seats to make them more Republican. Gavin
Newsom is puffing his chest and insisting that he's going
to do the same thing for Democrats in his state.
It's his way of fighting Trump. I'm going to go
(02:12):
over California in one minute. But I need to pull back.
Guys need to take I need to take a beat,
and I need to talk to about the finger pointing
of who is responsible for the situation we're in with
jerry mandering, Because you hear this a lot on cable
news and on the internet and on talk radio. Who
did it first? Right? Who was responsible? Democrats point to
(02:33):
North Carolina, Republicans point to other states. But if you
want to really understand jerry mandering, you have to go back.
You have to go back several decades. Right. Picture it
nineteen ninety one, A young Ryan Grodowski is four years old.
Operation Desert Storm has commenced. The New York Giants win
the Super Bowl. On Schwarzenegger makes good on his promise
(02:55):
that he'll be back in TERMYO two, and a little
band named Nirvana comes out with an album call never
Mind that changes music. Also happening that year in nineteen
ninety one is redistricting. Now there are four hundred and
thirty five US House seats, State legislatures, and the governors,
especially back then, control how they are redistricted. Guess how
(03:17):
many of those four hundred and thirty five seats Republicans
have full control of redistricting. I'll give you a second.
The correct answer is five, yes, five of the four
hundred and thirty five seats. That is it, the three
in Utah and the two in New Hampshire. The only
other state that has a Republican full control of South Dakota,
(03:38):
which only has one seat and they can't jerrymander it. Democrats,
on their hand, control one thirty eight seats. They have
full control in places like New Jersey, Florida, Texas, Mississippi, Maryland,
and Virginia. In those states, Republicans end up with just
fifty three seats, even though the President won every one
of those states with the exception of two. Yet Republicans
(04:02):
are still overwhelmingly under represented in the Congress. And that's
not by accident. There were several very smart Democratic politicians
and activists who carefully carved out in gerrymandered important states,
and even in states where they didn't have full control,
their activists were very successful in proposing different maps and
(04:23):
having lawsuits in trying to prevent Republicans from gaining any
control whatsoever. From The New York Times on November eighth,
nineteen ninety, election strengths hand on Democrat in ninety one redistricting.
This is very long. This is not a very long quot,
but this is a longer quote. But this is very important,
so listen quote. The nineteen ninety mid term election left
(04:45):
Democrats well positioned to protect their majority in the House
Representatives for the next decade, despite the shift in the
nation's population being more Republican in areas like the South
and the West. By winning the governorships in Texas and
Florida and maintaining just the majorities there, Democrats will have
complete control of drawing new lines for congressional districts where
(05:05):
the two biggest booming states. Next year, Texas will probably
gain three new seats, in Florida four in the reapportionment
of the nation's four hundred and thirty five congressional seats.
The process of redistricting is exquisitely complicated and politically brutal.
Analysts and both parties were pouring over the outcome Tuesdays,
voting to divine its full meaning for the ordeal, but
(05:27):
Democrats said it's clear Republicans had fallen shorten their goals
and they had set a decade ago to have enough
influence over redistricting, so they could so they could break
the Democratic Party's thirty five year old on the House
of Representatives. Democrats are optimistic. California Republicans believe that the
boundaries drawn in the nineteen eighty one election. Remember this
(05:47):
is ten years before this article was written. The nineteen
eighty one election cheated them out of six House seats,
and they say that they would like in nineteen ninety
one a plan to give them some of those seats back,
as well as some of the seven new House seats
that California received that year. The last three elections for
governor have produced Republican victories, but the state's congression deligration
(06:11):
is eleven more Democrats than Republicans. Many politicians predict that
the entire issue of California redistricting will end up in
the courts after deadlock between the Republican governor and the
Democratic legislature. Okay, I know it was a long quote,
but think about that. Even in nineteen ninety one, the
New York Times, which was no friend of conservatives at
any point in its history, but nineteen ninety one, is
(06:33):
sit in there and saying California in the eighties, this
is when Reagan was president, was carved up and jerrymannered
to support Democratic congressman. And remember, Reagan never had the
House of Representatives. The House of Representatives has been at
that point in nineteen ninety from nineteen ninety four backwards
(06:54):
right before the new Englishe election from nineteen thirty four
to nineteen ninety for over sixty years. Democrats controlled the
House for fifty six of those sixty years. So let's
look at Texas now. In nineteen ninety one nineteen ninety one,
there's a congressman named Martin Frost who represented a district
in Dallas. He represented from nineteen seventy nine to two
(07:14):
thousand and five. He represents the seat that Beth Van
Dyne currently holds. It's in like the Dallas mixture of
Dallas and some of the suburbs. Frost was endangered of
losing his seat, not to Republicans, but because minority Democrats
were demanding more representation for black and Hispanic congressmen. Well
he worked. Frost worked with a state senator by the
(07:36):
name of Eddie Bernice Johnson to create black majority district
in Dallas that she ran for and she won. That
is currently occupied by Jasmine Crockett Johnson and Frost worked
together to protect all nineteen incommon Democrats and create new
areas that for three black and Hispanic majority districts that
(07:57):
would vote Democrat in the future. This forced Republicans to
hold just eight seats in the Texas congressional election. The
Almanac of American Politics says called their jerrymandering quote the
shrewdest jerrymander of the nineteen nineties, ensuring that Democrats would
win fifty three percent of all seats in super safe
districts despite the fact that Republican Congression accudiates won fifty
(08:20):
three percent of the popular vote in the state. They
purposely carved up Texas six ways from Sunday Now I
had mentioned the New York Times article about California in
the eighties. California in the nineties also came up to
an immense complicated redistricting. Why. There's two men responsible. They're
called the Burton brothers, Philip and John Burton, and they
(08:43):
were masterminds at redistricting California throughout the eighties and nineties.
Philip was the mastermind of the nineteen eighty one map
that the New York Times cited. He passed away nineteen
eighty three, but his brother John, who was still with
us at the age of ninety two, continue the family
legacy in the nineteen ninety one redistricting. Now Democrats control
the legislator, but Republicans had the governorship with Governor Pete Wilson.
(09:06):
John worked with asseliment Speaker Willie Brown and used his
brother's blueprint that he made in nineteen eighty like using
the Voting Rights Act to confine Republicans and make more
minority districts that would vote Democrat, especially to draw white
Republicans in as few seats as possible. Now, this map
was vetoed by the governor, and the courts got involved,
(09:27):
and ultimately the former Republican governor, Okay, I'm gonna say
his name, but you know I can never pronounce the name,
probably George Duke Majine drew the lines. And while it's
obvious that the Republican involved, but he kind of used
an outlook to protect incumbents, right, So he didn't overturn
the nineteen eighty maps that were jerrymandered. He just kind
(09:50):
of drew the lines. He made it so that incumbents
were not drawn out of districts. That districts weren't encompassing
only Republican seats, and he gave it to I mean
I give it to Democrats. They held the complaint, and
in the end, despite getting all these new congressional seats
and having a Republican draw the map, Republicans gained a
net of just one House seat in all of California,
(10:12):
and they only defeated one incumbent Democrat in California. Democrats
used the Voting Rights Act, Section two of the Voting
Rights actively particular and partisan Jerry manderin and lawsuits to
protect the map because they thought it would prevent the
impossibility of Republicans winning back the House in the nineties.
They thought they were going to continue their fifty six
(10:34):
of sixty years of domination in the nineties, which is
why the Republican Revolution of nineteen ninety four is truly
a miracle. It was never ever supposed to happen. Democrats
drew the maps to prevent it from ever happening. And
I'm going to give you a hot take. And this
is something you do not hear on cable television, and
especially if you are a person of a certain age,
(10:54):
if you are a baby boomer or an older gen xer.
And I'm not saying that to be disrespectful, but if
you are, you heard this legacy of new Gingridge and
his contract with America, and it is mostly nonsense. The
reason that the Republicans won was not so much to
do with new Gingridge or his contract with America. It
was to do with Hillary Clinton and her attempt to
(11:15):
take over the nation's healthcare system with hillary Care. The
number one issue in exit polls on election date in
nineteen ninety four was not the economy, it was not taxes,
it was not almost anything new was talking about. It
was healthcare. And voters were fuming that Hillary Clinton wanted
to take over the nation's health care. So when you
(11:36):
hear Democrats say that Republicans started this and point to
North Carolina and point to Texas currently, no, that's absolutely
not true. Democrats have been doing this since before I
was born, in the nineteen eighties, with the Burden Brothers,
in the nineteties, with Martin Frost and Texas, and to
a certain extent, I don't blame them. They had the power.
Republicans had no power. Remember, I mean the Republican Democrats
(12:02):
whine and complain and progresses in the media run cover
for them. But the truth is the Democrats long before
Greg Abbott ever rolled over to his desk to create
five Republican districts, Republicans had no power in large parts
of this country, going back to like the reconstruction of
the Solid South, the Solid South, the southern states like Mississippi, Alabama,
(12:23):
arkets of West Virginia. Republicans didn't gain control of those
state legislators until twenty ten, after I had gone through puberty.
Twenty ten is a very long time ago. That's how
long Democrats control. One hundred and forty, one hundred and
fifty years they had direct control of the Deep South.
And going back until the nineteen fifties is when the
(12:45):
Democrats contrade gain control places like California and Connecticut, and
they gained control of like New Jersey and Illinois in
the nineteen seventies, and they have always had control places
like Maryland. You know the animosity towards Republicans for the
Civil War specifically, I mean that's what it was. Because
they freed the slaves, they had a locked out of
(13:06):
a huge portion of this country. And then you have
like the Great Depression, Herbert Hoover and his Misshandley Great Depression,
which locks him out of other parts of this country
for decades. It's only until Hillary Clinton shows up on
the scene that America says, no, I'm done with this
Democratic Party, you know, not today satan like that. Literally
(13:26):
was the catalyst that changed everything was Hillary Clinton not
just getting Trump e liked it, but really giving Republicans
a chance to control local legislatures, redistricting, and the House
representatives for the first time in a generation. People imagine
that there's just a gone time when people didn't use
(13:46):
political power to influence congressional redistricting, and they are living
in a fantasy. There was power being used, but it
was only basically on one side because they had all
the power. Well, they did it. And now I'm going
to expla how that history lesson applies in context to
what's going on in California today. That's coming up next. Okay,
(14:11):
now the history lesson's over, Let's talk about the map
with Gavin Newsom's pushing in California. The map essentially moves
four Republican districts from being lean or likely Republican to
being all but safe Democrat representative Lamafa's district in northern
California goes from Trump plus twenty five to Harris plus twelve.
Represent Ken Kevin Kiley's district goes from Trump plus four
(14:31):
to Harris plus ten, Darryl IS's district goes from Trump
plus fifteen to Harris plus three, and Ken Calvert's district
goes from Trump plus six to Harris plus fourteen. David Valdeo,
he's a moderate Republican who's in the Central Valley. His
district moves the left, but it's still a swing district
in the honesty, probably when it David Valdeo performs very
(14:52):
strongly as a local politician for Republicans. Young Kim j Alberton,
Tom McClintock, and Vincent Fong all have their districts become
super safe Republican. Right they go from there like Trump
plus twelve to Trump plus thirty. They're absolutely going to
win every time they put every Republican in those four
districts essentially. Now, remember when I told you that In
(15:13):
Texas back in the nineteen nineties, state Senator Eddie Bernice
Johnson jerry mannered herself a majority black tister so she
could run for Congress. That was part of her deal
that she got a seat. That same exact thing is
happening in California today. Senate Leader Mike McGuire drew himself
a safe Democratic seat in northern California as part of
this deal. Right, the most interesting development about this map
(15:37):
is they could have actually gone even further. Democrats could
have actually taken out six or seven Republicans. They really
have that kind of vote lead in California. And I'm
not endorsing that map, but I'm saying it's interesting that
they didn't. But why didn't they? Right, think for a second,
why wouldn't they go even further when they could, when
they could even gain from compared to what Texas is doing.
(16:00):
Because vulnerable incumbents like Josh Harder, he currently represents the
Trump district. Well, his new district is Harris plus eleven,
Adam Gray, that other Trump Republican, that other Democrat who
oh sorry, Trump Democrat, the Democrat who represents a Trump seat.
His seat moved six points to the left. A bunch
of vulnerable Democrats were asked to shore up their districts
become more democratic rather than knocking out another few Republicans
(16:25):
and I have thoughts about this. First, Democrats in California
are aware that the ground is shifting below them. Remember
Hillary Clinton won California by thirty points. Kamala Harris, who
is from the state and is one state wide elections
there and represented in the United States Senate, she won
California by twenty points. Now, I'm not saying that California
(16:47):
will shift another ten points. I don't know that, but
there have been indicators that the Golden State is trending
towards Republicans, even after the twenty twenty four election, even
after that ten point shift. Over the two elections from
November twenty twenty four to March twenty twenty five, Republicans
have gained one hundred and thirty eight thousand new members
(17:08):
of their party in their voter roles. Democrats have gained
twelve thousand. Independences gained the most with one hundred and
fifty five thousand, but one hundred and thirty eight thousand
to twelve thousand, ten times as many new Republicans as
new Democrats in California. Politics is not a pond. It
is not stagnant, is a river. It is changing. Every
(17:31):
day someone is born, someone turns eighteen, someone becomes a citizen,
someone moves out of the country, someone dies, five change,
parties change different candidates are elected to be the face
of the party. So while they understand the state is changing,
I don't think that the Democrats realize by how much.
Because their map is more aggressive and sloppy than the
Texas map, the Texa congressional map. You can say a
(17:54):
lot of it, but really none of the states even
in when you compare to the governor's election, which is worse,
which is on par with Trump's election, but different kinds
of coalitions, less support among Hispanics, less among support among
South Texans. None of the seats are swingdish districts. Maybe one.
Maybe one in South Texas would be a swing district.
In California, nine of the seats are swing districts when
(18:18):
you compare them to how other Republicans performed only in
the last two years. Shawan trend of Real Clear Politics,
pointed this out, and sotead that the map gets the
job done for Democrats in twenty twenty six, but there's
a big question as of twenty twenty eight and beyond.
Let's say California ships half as much as it did
between twenty twenty and twenty twenty four. So it moves
five points. Well, instead of four safe Republican seats, you
(18:41):
have six, and instead of two swing districts, who have eight.
Let's say shifts another a whole ten points. Let's say
it is continuation. Let's say Republicans are gonna win California
by ten or eleven points in twenty twenty eight, which
I know I'm not saying it's gonna happen, but let's
say it does, because it just did. If that ten
point shift happens, well, you have ten safe Republican seats,
seven more swing seats. The ground is changing very very quickly.
(19:04):
This map is tactical for what it understands and protecting incumbents,
and there needs being needs to be protections because their
ground is shifting. But I don't think they understand how
severe it is. And that means that this map could
become a dummy mander, not a gerrymander. If the state
ships half the rate as it did over the last
(19:25):
eight years, a trend that we're not only seeing throughout
the country, we're seeing all over the anglosphere, well, then
Democrats doomed a lot of their own incumbents, including incumbents
who just gave up tons of Democratic voters to protect
other incumbents. It might not work for anybody. Now, how
realistic is that this map will become law? The Democrats
have the votes to get it through the legislator. They
(19:47):
have a super majority in both the state Senate and
the State Assembly. While they lost seats in the last election,
they still have seventy five percent of the vote. After
they get it through the legislature. News some will have
three months to put this on the ballot in November.
It will have to spend millions to pass it. Remember,
California currently as an independent commissioner thanks to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Schwarzenegger and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy are preparing to spend
(20:10):
about one hundred and fifty million dollars to defeat this
ballot initiative, which is significantly more than Republicans usually spend
in California. In twenty twenty two, the Republican GOP candidate,
who received forty one percent of the vote, spent two
point six million dollars on his election, and polls show
that independent redistricting is very popular a poll by the
University of California at Berkeley found that voters opposed Newsom's
(20:33):
plan by a margin of sixty four to thirty six. Incidentally,
Newsome just released a poll as of the record of
this podcast, saying that his internal show that this is
actually very popular. Don't know if I believe that the
devil is really in the details, because it depends on
how the cons Social Amendment is written. I'm sure they're
going to try to write to be as vague and
(20:54):
confusing as possible. But if Republicans throw their weight behind
this and registration, register new voters, and put action behind this,
it could ultimately backfire on Democrats and their efforts to redistrict.
It's also a special election, however, Californias aren't supposed to
be voting this November, so only higher propensity voters will matter.
They'll matter a lot more, and that could tip the
(21:16):
scales for Newsom and he can get this jerrymander Dune,
who knows. In the end. I don't think Newsom cares
so much about this map for twenty twenty six because
it's not about twenty twenty six, it's about twenty twenty eight.
It's about whether or not he will or won't be
the Democratic nominee when American. When America was having their
racial reckoning in twenty twenty, Knewsome supported reparations for slaves
(21:37):
in his state, like the ancestors of slaves in California.
Not that there were any, but if there were, ever,
maybe there's a handful. They all get money. He supported
that effort when being loyal to Biden mattered, despite his
cognitive decline, despite everything, he was Biden's biggest champion, totally
ignored all the situation going on when being bipartisan was
(21:57):
a thing to do. Right up to the election. Well,
he had Charlie Kirk and Stee Band on his podcast
and told him how his kids listen to them. Now,
the plan is to be the biggest resist Lib. And
Newsom is going to be the biggest resist Lib in
the entire country. Why because he's the candidate for anybody.
He sheds his skin like the snake he is, and
he'll do anything to be the nominee. In twenty twenty eight.
(22:18):
We'll be back with Ask Me Anything next. Now it's
time for the Ask Me Anything segment of this podcast.
If you want a part of the ask me anything segment,
please email me Ryan at numbers Game podcast dot com.
That's Ryan at numbers Game podcast dot com. I look
forward to these emails and some of them are so interesting.
This one from Ryan Fox on our last episode. I
(22:40):
answered it, but I didn't feel like I answered it
to its fullest, so I actually relooked at it. He asked,
what would our legislator Senate look like if the seventeenth Amendment,
which allows for the direct election of senators, if that
never had been ratified, what will we how would the
map look if we still had the legislators picking out
the Senate? And I said, I didn't feel like the
answer I gave last time was actually sufficient, so I
(23:02):
went fall autists. Not that I am. I don't mean
disrespectfully any autistic listeners, but I went full autists. And
I spent so much time looking at elections of US
senators compared to how the legislature was made up at
the time to try to get the best possible answer
I possibly could for what it would look like currently.
And based on my calculation, if the state legislators were
(23:26):
picking the senators at the time of their election, there
will be sixty two Republican senators and thirty eight Democrats.
Obviously much different than the map we currently have. The
biggest changeould get the Midwest would basically all have Republican
senators except for Illinois. New Hampshire to have two Republican senators.
Georgia and Arizona would have two Republican senators. Maine would
(23:46):
have two Democrats, so no Susan Collins. Unfortunately. The only
state that I wasn't sure about there's two states, Alaska
and Minnesota. Alaska is a very strange date when it
comes to a local government, there you have fusion governments.
We're based like a bunch of Republicans don't like the
other Republicans, so they call themselves the true Republicans, and
then the other Republicans work with the Democrats. So I
(24:07):
counted as they would ele liked one Republican and one independent.
And Minnesota their margins are so tight depending on the year,
and there's a few independents in the legislature, so I
put it as one Republican and one Democrat, just you know,
for argument's sake and my best guests. And so that's
why I got with sixty two Republicans and thirty eight Democrats,
it would be a different country. But thank you Brian
(24:28):
Fox with that answer. I actually really enjoyed doing that research,
like way too much anyway. Next question is from Bill
to Bias. He has a question on Colorado's declining support
for Republicans. He asked if the declining number of workers
in the state, if there was a declined number of
workers in the state in the gas, boil and mining industry,
because they would likely vote for Republicans. The short answer
(24:50):
is yes. The number of people who directly work in
the field of oil mining and gas has declined pretty substantially.
They went from thirty three thousand jobs in twenty nineteen
to twenty thousand jobs in twenty twenty two. They went
up a little bit in twenty twenty three, but they're
nowhere near the twenty nineteen numbers. But even though they
say that they've had this slight increase in jobs, they
(25:13):
make up less than one percent of the state's workforce.
And remember, three million people voted in Colorado in the
last presidential election. It's just that Colorado has just become
a destination for progressives who can't deal with California's high taxes.
Anymore and that's just what it is. And also a
lot of Hispanic migration. So those two things have kind
(25:34):
of made the state into this ever growing blue you know,
blue paradise, I guess in the middle of our country
in the mountains, and you know, there's also art festivals
and other things in the environment and hiking and you know,
I don't know, there's a lot of things that everything
attract certain people that lifestyle who lean progressive. I think
the same thing as like the Pacific Northwest, as a
(25:56):
lot of people are attracted to that kind of lifestyle
who are aggressive. So that's why Cholorason situation they're in,
and that's why they're one of the few states who
despite everything great that happened in twenty twenty four for Republicans,
is not looking like they are gaining much support in
the future. Well that's our show today. If you like
this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app
(26:16):
Apple podcast where we get your podcast and I will
see you guys on Monday.
Welcome back to a Numbers Game podcast with Brian Grodski.
Thank you all for being here again on this episode. Okay, so,
I know I've talked about this issue in the past
and I like to have a variety, but I have
to do a deep dive episode on jerrymandering because of
Gavin Newsom and California. That's right, California, here we come. Okay.
Over the weekend, Democrats in the state unveil their new
(00:24):
proposed partisan jerrymandered map. Now, remember, California has fifty two
congressional districts, the most of any state. Under the current map,
Democrats hold forty three seats and Republicans have nine. In
the twenty twenty four election, President Trump won eleven seats.
There are two Trump seats that have a Democratic congressman,
(00:46):
the thirteenth district, which is represented by Democrat Adam Gray.
He won his election by five hundred and fifty five
votes out of one hundred and thirty something that I was
in casts it was a very very tight election and
Josh Harder in California ninth is the Democrats. So the
state begins with overwhelming Democrat and Democratic congressional Democratic congressman
(01:07):
being disproportionately represented compared to the percentage that President Trump
received statewide. Trump won thirty eight percent of the state
wide vote, Republicans hold just nineteen percent of the seats.
It's one of actually the most extreme partisan jerry manders
when you look at it like that, aside from maybe
(01:29):
like New Jersey, New Mexico, and Illinois, even though it's
quote unquote New Jersey in Illinois, New Jersey and California
have quote unquote independent maps. I'm not including like Vermont,
which only has one congressional district. You know, that doesn't
that doesn't matter. But California has a very very very
partisanly jerrymandered map to begin with, that underrepresents Republicans voting
(01:52):
attentions statewide. But because of Texas Republican's decision to jerrymander,
they're trying Texas is I said, this is less supposed
reminding five new seats to make them more Republican. Gavin
Newsom is puffing his chest and insisting that he's going
to do the same thing for Democrats in his state.
It's his way of fighting Trump. I'm going to go
(02:12):
over California in one minute. But I need to pull back.
Guys need to take I need to take a beat,
and I need to talk to about the finger pointing
of who is responsible for the situation we're in with
jerry mandering, Because you hear this a lot on cable
news and on the internet and on talk radio. Who
did it first? Right? Who was responsible? Democrats point to
(02:33):
North Carolina, Republicans point to other states. But if you
want to really understand jerry mandering, you have to go back.
You have to go back several decades. Right. Picture it
nineteen ninety one, A young Ryan Grodowski is four years old.
Operation Desert Storm has commenced. The New York Giants win
the Super Bowl. On Schwarzenegger makes good on his promise
(02:55):
that he'll be back in TERMYO two, and a little
band named Nirvana comes out with an album call never
Mind that changes music. Also happening that year in nineteen
ninety one is redistricting. Now there are four hundred and
thirty five US House seats, State legislatures, and the governors,
especially back then, control how they are redistricted. Guess how
(03:17):
many of those four hundred and thirty five seats Republicans
have full control of redistricting. I'll give you a second.
The correct answer is five, yes, five of the four
hundred and thirty five seats. That is it, the three
in Utah and the two in New Hampshire. The only
other state that has a Republican full control of South Dakota,
(03:38):
which only has one seat and they can't jerrymander it. Democrats,
on their hand, control one thirty eight seats. They have
full control in places like New Jersey, Florida, Texas, Mississippi, Maryland,
and Virginia. In those states, Republicans end up with just
fifty three seats, even though the President won every one
of those states with the exception of two. Yet Republicans
(04:02):
are still overwhelmingly under represented in the Congress. And that's
not by accident. There were several very smart Democratic politicians
and activists who carefully carved out in gerrymandered important states,
and even in states where they didn't have full control,
their activists were very successful in proposing different maps and
(04:23):
having lawsuits in trying to prevent Republicans from gaining any
control whatsoever. From The New York Times on November eighth,
nineteen ninety, election strengths hand on Democrat in ninety one redistricting.
This is very long. This is not a very long quot,
but this is a longer quote. But this is very important,
so listen quote. The nineteen ninety mid term election left
(04:45):
Democrats well positioned to protect their majority in the House
Representatives for the next decade, despite the shift in the
nation's population being more Republican in areas like the South
and the West. By winning the governorships in Texas and
Florida and maintaining just the majorities there, Democrats will have
complete control of drawing new lines for congressional districts where
(05:05):
the two biggest booming states. Next year, Texas will probably
gain three new seats, in Florida four in the reapportionment
of the nation's four hundred and thirty five congressional seats.
The process of redistricting is exquisitely complicated and politically brutal.
Analysts and both parties were pouring over the outcome Tuesdays,
voting to divine its full meaning for the ordeal, but
(05:27):
Democrats said it's clear Republicans had fallen shorten their goals
and they had set a decade ago to have enough
influence over redistricting, so they could so they could break
the Democratic Party's thirty five year old on the House
of Representatives. Democrats are optimistic. California Republicans believe that the
boundaries drawn in the nineteen eighty one election. Remember this
(05:47):
is ten years before this article was written. The nineteen
eighty one election cheated them out of six House seats,
and they say that they would like in nineteen ninety
one a plan to give them some of those seats back,
as well as some of the seven new House seats
that California received that year. The last three elections for
governor have produced Republican victories, but the state's congression deligration
(06:11):
is eleven more Democrats than Republicans. Many politicians predict that
the entire issue of California redistricting will end up in
the courts after deadlock between the Republican governor and the
Democratic legislature. Okay, I know it was a long quote,
but think about that. Even in nineteen ninety one, the
New York Times, which was no friend of conservatives at
any point in its history, but nineteen ninety one, is
(06:33):
sit in there and saying California in the eighties, this
is when Reagan was president, was carved up and jerrymannered
to support Democratic congressman. And remember, Reagan never had the
House of Representatives. The House of Representatives has been at
that point in nineteen ninety from nineteen ninety four backwards
(06:54):
right before the new Englishe election from nineteen thirty four
to nineteen ninety for over sixty years. Democrats controlled the
House for fifty six of those sixty years. So let's
look at Texas now. In nineteen ninety one nineteen ninety one,
there's a congressman named Martin Frost who represented a district
in Dallas. He represented from nineteen seventy nine to two
(07:14):
thousand and five. He represents the seat that Beth Van
Dyne currently holds. It's in like the Dallas mixture of
Dallas and some of the suburbs. Frost was endangered of
losing his seat, not to Republicans, but because minority Democrats
were demanding more representation for black and Hispanic congressmen. Well
he worked. Frost worked with a state senator by the
(07:36):
name of Eddie Bernice Johnson to create black majority district
in Dallas that she ran for and she won. That
is currently occupied by Jasmine Crockett Johnson and Frost worked
together to protect all nineteen incommon Democrats and create new
areas that for three black and Hispanic majority districts that
(07:57):
would vote Democrat in the future. This forced Republicans to
hold just eight seats in the Texas congressional election. The
Almanac of American Politics says called their jerrymandering quote the
shrewdest jerrymander of the nineteen nineties, ensuring that Democrats would
win fifty three percent of all seats in super safe
districts despite the fact that Republican Congression accudiates won fifty
(08:20):
three percent of the popular vote in the state. They
purposely carved up Texas six ways from Sunday Now I
had mentioned the New York Times article about California in
the eighties. California in the nineties also came up to
an immense complicated redistricting. Why. There's two men responsible. They're
called the Burton brothers, Philip and John Burton, and they
(08:43):
were masterminds at redistricting California throughout the eighties and nineties.
Philip was the mastermind of the nineteen eighty one map
that the New York Times cited. He passed away nineteen
eighty three, but his brother John, who was still with
us at the age of ninety two, continue the family
legacy in the nineteen ninety one redistricting. Now Democrats control
the legislator, but Republicans had the governorship with Governor Pete Wilson.
(09:06):
John worked with asseliment Speaker Willie Brown and used his
brother's blueprint that he made in nineteen eighty like using
the Voting Rights Act to confine Republicans and make more
minority districts that would vote Democrat, especially to draw white
Republicans in as few seats as possible. Now, this map
was vetoed by the governor, and the courts got involved,
(09:27):
and ultimately the former Republican governor, Okay, I'm gonna say
his name, but you know I can never pronounce the name,
probably George Duke Majine drew the lines. And while it's
obvious that the Republican involved, but he kind of used
an outlook to protect incumbents, right, So he didn't overturn
the nineteen eighty maps that were jerrymandered. He just kind
(09:50):
of drew the lines. He made it so that incumbents
were not drawn out of districts. That districts weren't encompassing
only Republican seats, and he gave it to I mean
I give it to Democrats. They held the complaint, and
in the end, despite getting all these new congressional seats
and having a Republican draw the map, Republicans gained a
net of just one House seat in all of California,
(10:12):
and they only defeated one incumbent Democrat in California. Democrats
used the Voting Rights Act, Section two of the Voting
Rights actively particular and partisan Jerry manderin and lawsuits to
protect the map because they thought it would prevent the
impossibility of Republicans winning back the House in the nineties.
They thought they were going to continue their fifty six
(10:34):
of sixty years of domination in the nineties, which is
why the Republican Revolution of nineteen ninety four is truly
a miracle. It was never ever supposed to happen. Democrats
drew the maps to prevent it from ever happening. And
I'm going to give you a hot take. And this
is something you do not hear on cable television, and
especially if you are a person of a certain age,
(10:54):
if you are a baby boomer or an older gen xer.
And I'm not saying that to be disrespectful, but if
you are, you heard this legacy of new Gingridge and
his contract with America, and it is mostly nonsense. The
reason that the Republicans won was not so much to
do with new Gingridge or his contract with America. It
was to do with Hillary Clinton and her attempt to
(11:15):
take over the nation's healthcare system with hillary Care. The
number one issue in exit polls on election date in
nineteen ninety four was not the economy, it was not taxes,
it was not almost anything new was talking about. It
was healthcare. And voters were fuming that Hillary Clinton wanted
to take over the nation's health care. So when you
(11:36):
hear Democrats say that Republicans started this and point to
North Carolina and point to Texas currently, no, that's absolutely
not true. Democrats have been doing this since before I
was born, in the nineteen eighties, with the Burden Brothers,
in the nineteties, with Martin Frost and Texas, and to
a certain extent, I don't blame them. They had the power.
Republicans had no power. Remember, I mean the Republican Democrats
(12:02):
whine and complain and progresses in the media run cover
for them. But the truth is the Democrats long before
Greg Abbott ever rolled over to his desk to create
five Republican districts, Republicans had no power in large parts
of this country, going back to like the reconstruction of
the Solid South, the Solid South, the southern states like Mississippi, Alabama,
(12:23):
arkets of West Virginia. Republicans didn't gain control of those
state legislators until twenty ten, after I had gone through puberty.
Twenty ten is a very long time ago. That's how
long Democrats control. One hundred and forty, one hundred and
fifty years they had direct control of the Deep South.
And going back until the nineteen fifties is when the
(12:45):
Democrats contrade gain control places like California and Connecticut, and
they gained control of like New Jersey and Illinois in
the nineteen seventies, and they have always had control places
like Maryland. You know the animosity towards Republicans for the
Civil War specifically, I mean that's what it was. Because
they freed the slaves, they had a locked out of
(13:06):
a huge portion of this country. And then you have
like the Great Depression, Herbert Hoover and his Misshandley Great Depression,
which locks him out of other parts of this country
for decades. It's only until Hillary Clinton shows up on
the scene that America says, no, I'm done with this
Democratic Party, you know, not today satan like that. Literally
(13:26):
was the catalyst that changed everything was Hillary Clinton not
just getting Trump e liked it, but really giving Republicans
a chance to control local legislatures, redistricting, and the House
representatives for the first time in a generation. People imagine
that there's just a gone time when people didn't use
(13:46):
political power to influence congressional redistricting, and they are living
in a fantasy. There was power being used, but it
was only basically on one side because they had all
the power. Well, they did it. And now I'm going
to expla how that history lesson applies in context to
what's going on in California today. That's coming up next. Okay,
(14:11):
now the history lesson's over, Let's talk about the map
with Gavin Newsom's pushing in California. The map essentially moves
four Republican districts from being lean or likely Republican to
being all but safe Democrat representative Lamafa's district in northern
California goes from Trump plus twenty five to Harris plus twelve.
Represent Ken Kevin Kiley's district goes from Trump plus four
(14:31):
to Harris plus ten, Darryl IS's district goes from Trump
plus fifteen to Harris plus three, and Ken Calvert's district
goes from Trump plus six to Harris plus fourteen. David Valdeo,
he's a moderate Republican who's in the Central Valley. His
district moves the left, but it's still a swing district
in the honesty, probably when it David Valdeo performs very
(14:52):
strongly as a local politician for Republicans. Young Kim j Alberton,
Tom McClintock, and Vincent Fong all have their districts become
super safe Republican. Right they go from there like Trump
plus twelve to Trump plus thirty. They're absolutely going to
win every time they put every Republican in those four
districts essentially. Now, remember when I told you that In
(15:13):
Texas back in the nineteen nineties, state Senator Eddie Bernice
Johnson jerry mannered herself a majority black tister so she
could run for Congress. That was part of her deal
that she got a seat. That same exact thing is
happening in California today. Senate Leader Mike McGuire drew himself
a safe Democratic seat in northern California as part of
this deal. Right, the most interesting development about this map
(15:37):
is they could have actually gone even further. Democrats could
have actually taken out six or seven Republicans. They really
have that kind of vote lead in California. And I'm
not endorsing that map, but I'm saying it's interesting that
they didn't. But why didn't they? Right, think for a second,
why wouldn't they go even further when they could, when
they could even gain from compared to what Texas is doing.
(16:00):
Because vulnerable incumbents like Josh Harder, he currently represents the
Trump district. Well, his new district is Harris plus eleven,
Adam Gray, that other Trump Republican, that other Democrat who
oh sorry, Trump Democrat, the Democrat who represents a Trump seat.
His seat moved six points to the left. A bunch
of vulnerable Democrats were asked to shore up their districts
become more democratic rather than knocking out another few Republicans
(16:25):
and I have thoughts about this. First, Democrats in California
are aware that the ground is shifting below them. Remember
Hillary Clinton won California by thirty points. Kamala Harris, who
is from the state and is one state wide elections
there and represented in the United States Senate, she won
California by twenty points. Now, I'm not saying that California
(16:47):
will shift another ten points. I don't know that, but
there have been indicators that the Golden State is trending
towards Republicans, even after the twenty twenty four election, even
after that ten point shift. Over the two elections from
November twenty twenty four to March twenty twenty five, Republicans
have gained one hundred and thirty eight thousand new members
(17:08):
of their party in their voter roles. Democrats have gained
twelve thousand. Independences gained the most with one hundred and
fifty five thousand, but one hundred and thirty eight thousand
to twelve thousand, ten times as many new Republicans as
new Democrats in California. Politics is not a pond. It
is not stagnant, is a river. It is changing. Every
(17:31):
day someone is born, someone turns eighteen, someone becomes a citizen,
someone moves out of the country, someone dies, five change,
parties change different candidates are elected to be the face
of the party. So while they understand the state is changing,
I don't think that the Democrats realize by how much.
Because their map is more aggressive and sloppy than the
Texas map, the Texa congressional map. You can say a
(17:54):
lot of it, but really none of the states even
in when you compare to the governor's election, which is worse,
which is on par with Trump's election, but different kinds
of coalitions, less support among Hispanics, less among support among
South Texans. None of the seats are swingdish districts. Maybe one.
Maybe one in South Texas would be a swing district.
In California, nine of the seats are swing districts when
(18:18):
you compare them to how other Republicans performed only in
the last two years. Shawan trend of Real Clear Politics,
pointed this out, and sotead that the map gets the
job done for Democrats in twenty twenty six, but there's
a big question as of twenty twenty eight and beyond.
Let's say California ships half as much as it did
between twenty twenty and twenty twenty four. So it moves
five points. Well, instead of four safe Republican seats, you
(18:41):
have six, and instead of two swing districts, who have eight.
Let's say shifts another a whole ten points. Let's say
it is continuation. Let's say Republicans are gonna win California
by ten or eleven points in twenty twenty eight, which
I know I'm not saying it's gonna happen, but let's
say it does, because it just did. If that ten
point shift happens, well, you have ten safe Republican seats,
seven more swing seats. The ground is changing very very quickly.
(19:04):
This map is tactical for what it understands and protecting incumbents,
and there needs being needs to be protections because their
ground is shifting. But I don't think they understand how
severe it is. And that means that this map could
become a dummy mander, not a gerrymander. If the state
ships half the rate as it did over the last
(19:25):
eight years, a trend that we're not only seeing throughout
the country, we're seeing all over the anglosphere, well, then
Democrats doomed a lot of their own incumbents, including incumbents
who just gave up tons of Democratic voters to protect
other incumbents. It might not work for anybody. Now, how
realistic is that this map will become law? The Democrats
have the votes to get it through the legislator. They
(19:47):
have a super majority in both the state Senate and
the State Assembly. While they lost seats in the last election,
they still have seventy five percent of the vote. After
they get it through the legislature. News some will have
three months to put this on the ballot in November.
It will have to spend millions to pass it. Remember,
California currently as an independent commissioner thanks to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Schwarzenegger and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy are preparing to spend
(20:10):
about one hundred and fifty million dollars to defeat this
ballot initiative, which is significantly more than Republicans usually spend
in California. In twenty twenty two, the Republican GOP candidate,
who received forty one percent of the vote, spent two
point six million dollars on his election, and polls show
that independent redistricting is very popular a poll by the
University of California at Berkeley found that voters opposed Newsom's
(20:33):
plan by a margin of sixty four to thirty six. Incidentally,
Newsome just released a poll as of the record of
this podcast, saying that his internal show that this is
actually very popular. Don't know if I believe that the
devil is really in the details, because it depends on
how the cons Social Amendment is written. I'm sure they're
going to try to write to be as vague and
(20:54):
confusing as possible. But if Republicans throw their weight behind
this and registration, register new voters, and put action behind this,
it could ultimately backfire on Democrats and their efforts to redistrict.
It's also a special election, however, Californias aren't supposed to
be voting this November, so only higher propensity voters will matter.
They'll matter a lot more, and that could tip the
(21:16):
scales for Newsom and he can get this jerrymander Dune,
who knows. In the end. I don't think Newsom cares
so much about this map for twenty twenty six because
it's not about twenty twenty six, it's about twenty twenty eight.
It's about whether or not he will or won't be
the Democratic nominee when American. When America was having their
racial reckoning in twenty twenty, Knewsome supported reparations for slaves
(21:37):
in his state, like the ancestors of slaves in California.
Not that there were any, but if there were, ever,
maybe there's a handful. They all get money. He supported
that effort when being loyal to Biden mattered, despite his
cognitive decline, despite everything, he was Biden's biggest champion, totally
ignored all the situation going on when being bipartisan was
(21:57):
a thing to do. Right up to the election. Well,
he had Charlie Kirk and Stee Band on his podcast
and told him how his kids listen to them. Now,
the plan is to be the biggest resist Lib. And
Newsom is going to be the biggest resist Lib in
the entire country. Why because he's the candidate for anybody.
He sheds his skin like the snake he is, and
he'll do anything to be the nominee. In twenty twenty eight.
(22:18):
We'll be back with Ask Me Anything next. Now it's
time for the Ask Me Anything segment of this podcast.
If you want a part of the ask me anything segment,
please email me Ryan at numbers Game podcast dot com.
That's Ryan at numbers Game podcast dot com. I look
forward to these emails and some of them are so interesting.
This one from Ryan Fox on our last episode. I
(22:40):
answered it, but I didn't feel like I answered it
to its fullest, so I actually relooked at it. He asked,
what would our legislator Senate look like if the seventeenth Amendment,
which allows for the direct election of senators, if that
never had been ratified, what will we how would the
map look if we still had the legislators picking out
the Senate? And I said, I didn't feel like the
answer I gave last time was actually sufficient, so I
(23:02):
went fall autists. Not that I am. I don't mean
disrespectfully any autistic listeners, but I went full autists. And
I spent so much time looking at elections of US
senators compared to how the legislature was made up at
the time to try to get the best possible answer
I possibly could for what it would look like currently.
And based on my calculation, if the state legislators were
(23:26):
picking the senators at the time of their election, there
will be sixty two Republican senators and thirty eight Democrats.
Obviously much different than the map we currently have. The
biggest changeould get the Midwest would basically all have Republican
senators except for Illinois. New Hampshire to have two Republican senators.
Georgia and Arizona would have two Republican senators. Maine would
(23:46):
have two Democrats, so no Susan Collins. Unfortunately. The only
state that I wasn't sure about there's two states, Alaska
and Minnesota. Alaska is a very strange date when it
comes to a local government, there you have fusion governments.
We're based like a bunch of Republicans don't like the
other Republicans, so they call themselves the true Republicans, and
then the other Republicans work with the Democrats. So I
(24:07):
counted as they would ele liked one Republican and one independent.
And Minnesota their margins are so tight depending on the year,
and there's a few independents in the legislature, so I
put it as one Republican and one Democrat, just you know,
for argument's sake and my best guests. And so that's
why I got with sixty two Republicans and thirty eight Democrats,
it would be a different country. But thank you Brian
(24:28):
Fox with that answer. I actually really enjoyed doing that research,
like way too much anyway. Next question is from Bill
to Bias. He has a question on Colorado's declining support
for Republicans. He asked if the declining number of workers
in the state, if there was a declined number of
workers in the state in the gas, boil and mining industry,
because they would likely vote for Republicans. The short answer
(24:50):
is yes. The number of people who directly work in
the field of oil mining and gas has declined pretty substantially.
They went from thirty three thousand jobs in twenty nineteen
to twenty thousand jobs in twenty twenty two. They went
up a little bit in twenty twenty three, but they're
nowhere near the twenty nineteen numbers. But even though they
say that they've had this slight increase in jobs, they
(25:13):
make up less than one percent of the state's workforce.
And remember, three million people voted in Colorado in the
last presidential election. It's just that Colorado has just become
a destination for progressives who can't deal with California's high taxes.
Anymore and that's just what it is. And also a
lot of Hispanic migration. So those two things have kind
(25:34):
of made the state into this ever growing blue you know,
blue paradise, I guess in the middle of our country
in the mountains, and you know, there's also art festivals
and other things in the environment and hiking and you know,
I don't know, there's a lot of things that everything
attract certain people that lifestyle who lean progressive. I think
the same thing as like the Pacific Northwest, as a
(25:56):
lot of people are attracted to that kind of lifestyle
who are aggressive. So that's why Cholorason situation they're in,
and that's why they're one of the few states who
despite everything great that happened in twenty twenty four for Republicans,
is not looking like they are gaining much support in
the future. Well that's our show today. If you like
this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app
(26:16):
Apple podcast where we get your podcast and I will
see you guys on Monday.
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