September 29, 2025 • 45 mins
In this episode of A Numbers Game, Ryan and guest Matt Rooney break down the changing dynamics of New Jersey politics ahead of the 2025 gubernatorial race. With fresh polling showing Republican Jack Ciattarelli closing the gap—and even drawing support from Democratic mayors—they explore signs of Democratic division and voter frustration with Governor Murphy. The discussion also connects New Jersey’s trends to bigger global and national shifts, from the rise of populist movements in Europe to GOP momentum through redistricting. With demographic changes and mail-in ballot data pointing to unexpected Republican strength, this episode examines what could be a turning point in one of America’s bluest states. It's a Numbers Game is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Monday & Thursday.
Check out Matt's Site - Save Jersey
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome back to a numbers game that Ryan grud Uski.
Happy Monday. We are thirty six days until the twenty
twenty five elections. I know, originally I said today was
going to be all about Virginia, but a number of
people have reached out to me and they want to
talk about New Jersey. A lot of polls have come
out that made this raise much more interesting. And now
I'm a Northeasterner, so I'm kind of really interested in Jersey,
(00:22):
so I couldn't wait to do it as well. We
will do a deep dive on Virginia next Monday. I
already have a guest laid out who knows all things
Virginia data, and they will have a lot of early votes,
will have a lot to decipher and go through. I
think it'll be very, very exciting. I'm also going to
do an episode on Pennsylvania because they have an important
election which is completely going under the radar, which everyone
should be talking about or at least know a little
(00:44):
bit about. All Right, before we get into the Garden State,
here are some other numbers that I think you all
should know and we need to address. First across the
pond in the UK, the polling for an ipsis. They
did a poll on the Prime Minister and is appro
rating Prime Minister Keir Starmer. He is a member of
the Labor Party, the British version of the Democratic Party.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
They found that he has.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
A thirteen percent appro rating a seventy nine percent unfavorable,
writing now, not only is this a bad number, it
is the worst number of any prime minister ever polled
since IPSEY started in nineteen eighty. That includes Liz Trust,
the former Tory Conservative Prime minister who lasted only forty
(01:30):
nine days in the job. This is obviously not a
great place to be and Starmer is reacting by writing
an op ed in The Telegraph, which is a pretty
prominent British paper, talking about how he's going to issue
issue digital ID cards to sit there and crackdown on
illegal immigrants taking British shops. He's also talked about the
(01:52):
fact that they need to crack down on legal immigration.
He knows and immigration is the number one issue for
British voters and there's a direct relation to immigration and
the cost of living, immigration and the economy, and the
economy is the bad spot. They're calling the UK the
sick man of the g seven, that it is doing
horrifically bad in the economy, that the cost of living,
(02:14):
the cost of owning a home is enormously high, and
the British public are outraged and they are looking for
alternatives to the traditional Tory and Labor Party, you know,
chance parties, that they're not looking for the same parties
they've always elected, dating back hundreds of years. In the
case of the Tories, A Sunday Times which is also
(02:36):
another British paper, poll predicts that if the election we're
held today, Reform UK, led by Nigel Faraj, is expected
to win the election with an astounding three hundred and
seventy three seats, while the Labor Party would come in
second with just ninety seats and the Tories would have
just forty. They would be a minority party. Now imagine
(02:57):
had Donald Trump ran under the America Party or a
third party or whatnot and Europe and in just you know,
before he even had you know, first midterm elections or
whatever the case may be in the American version or
his second election, that the Republicans would be a minority
party and the Democrats would be shellacked and losing two
(03:21):
thirds of their support that's what's happening in the UK.
All Over most of Western Europe we're seeing leaders scramble
with declining support and increasing political instability. Leaders in Germany, France,
the UK and Spain are all suffering suffering from declining
support and nationalist party populist parties are surging across the board.
(03:43):
Now the elections in most of Western Europe aren't happening.
There is one election in late October in the Netherlands,
but that's that's it's interesting and I'm going to talk
about it, but it's not the most consequential to the
fairly small cuntry. And also, the Netherlands has like two
hundred political parties, so everyone gets a seat and they
(04:04):
all squabble about, you know, creating political unions.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
It's it's messy.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
Sometimes it takes months for the Netherlands to create a
government while everyone tries to find out who's alliance they're on.
But it's the Netherlands, so no one really notices anyway.
Most Western countries, major Western countries do not have an
election until twenty twenty seven. There's a few smaller countries
like Denmark and Sweden and Hungary and Slovenia, that have elections,
but we're talking the UK, France, Italy, Germany, these big countries, Spain,
(04:34):
they don't have elections for quite some time. And what
these European leaders in Germany and in France with Manuel
Macron and in the UK with Starmar are hoping for
is that they somehow improve the economy some and deal
with at least illegal immigration in some capacity, maybe deport
(04:55):
some criminals. So that way these populous parties like like
Marine Lapenn's national Rally, like the AfD in Germany, like
Box in Spain, taper off support voters come back to
the center and support these traditional left right parties.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
I don't know if that's going to happen.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
I don't know if some of these parties will be
able to keep the government going before they can collapse.
We will see and I will tell you about it.
But this is what's brewing in Europe. It is not
impossible that we close our eyes wake up at twenty
nine and most of Western Europe is governed by a
national populist party and president or prime minister. It is
(05:42):
very interesting how things are unfolding. Now back to the
United States, specifically three states. Let's talk about Missouri, the
show me state. This story flew completely under the radar
Republican Governor Mike Keho SIGNDI bill creating new Congression lines
in Missouri. It will turn the fifth Congressional District, which
(06:03):
is currently represented by a Manual Kleaver who's held the
seat for twenty years. He's a Democrat, into a Republican district.
Under the current lines, the district voted for Kamala Harris
by a sixty one to thirty seven margin. This new
map splits the city of Kansas City into three different
districts and turns the district the fifth Congressional District, which
(06:25):
completely encompasses Kansas City right now from Aharis plus twenty
three seat to a Trump plus eighteen seat. It will
likely guarantee that a Republican will win the seat, adding
to the Republican delegation next year. The map is likely
to end up in some lawsuits, especially given what's going
(06:45):
on right now in Louisiana and Alabama with their lawsuits.
If the Supreme Court decides to strike down or radically
reform Section two of the Voting Rights Act, which protects
minority majority districts throughout the country. Though not white majority
districts in places that they are a minority, like in California.
But if they strike or modify section two of the VRA,
(07:09):
I think that this map will be okay. I think
this map will stay. I think they will gain this
extra seat and Republicans will have one more seat going
into the midterms. Go to another state we're talking about redistricting,
which is Maryland.
Speaker 2 (07:24):
Now.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
When Texas redistricted, a lot of Democratic governors started puffing
their chests and saying they were going to do something,
and most of them didn't because most of them don't
have the power do anything. Well, one of those who
did have the power to do something and could have
is the Democratic governor of Maryland named Wes Moore. Maryland
has one Republican Congression congressional district and he was promising
(07:47):
to redistrict that into oblivion and make it a Democratic seat.
He has since backed away from that comment and he's
giving the the he's giving the smoke.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
Signals that will not happen.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
Why will it not happen, Well, it does anything to
do with him. It has to be with the former
governor Larry Hogan. It was a Republican of Maryland. Now,
for the true blue Republican listeners of the show, you
may have said Larry Hogan was a rhino, Larry Hogan
was terrible. Larry Hogan, you know, didn't like Trump, which
is true, he didn't like Trump. However, what Larry Hogan
(08:20):
did do which many blue state Republican governors do not do,
is he actually appointed Republicans to the Supreme Court of Maryland,
and Maryland Supreme Court is five to Republican. What Democrats,
including Wes Moore, are afraid of is not only will
a new map be struck down by the Republican majority
(08:40):
Supreme Court appointed by Larry Hogan, is that they will
strike down the current map as well, redraw it and
give Republicans not one seat but two and possibly make
a third swing seat in the state. That would be
devastating to Republicans. That would be deructive to Wes Moore.
(09:01):
He knows it, he knows he could not run for
He's saying he's not running for president, but in case
he changes his mind, as politicians are known.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
To do that.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
If he went to a debate stage and Gavin Newsom
said I gained Ford Democratic seats, you lost us one
or two seats. That would be an absolute ko knockout
with Democratic activists. So it doesn't look like Democrats can
count on Maryland to add to their delegation in redistricting
so far. Maybe he'll change his mind, but it looks
(09:33):
like it's he's trying to preempt a move by the
Republican Supreme Court in the state. Okay, now here's for
the main show for the Garden State. For New Jersey,
Jack Chiarelli is continuing to have more news break in
his favor. He received the endorsement of a Democratic mayor
named James Dodd of Dover, New Jersey. Now, Dover is
not a Republican town. It voted for Harris by fifty
(09:54):
six percent and by for Biden in twenty twenty by
sixty seven percent. This is the This isn't the first
time that a Democrat mayor has endorsed Chittarelli. The mayor
of Garfield, New Jersey endorsement. But Garfield is a place
that was very Democratic back in twenty twelve and has
moved to the right in every subsequent election, and in
(10:16):
twenty twenty four Trump won it, So it makes sense
that he's trying to align with his voters in a
town that is increasingly becoming a Republican. That is not
the case with Dover.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
Now.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
The biggest, the big possibility, the biggest possibility for Chitdarelli
around getting Democratic mayor support is a meeting he allegedly
had two weeks ago with a man named Nicholas Sacho.
Saco has been an elected official from Northern Bergen in
New Jersey, Northern New Jersey, right outside of New York
City for since nineteen eighty five, since before I was born.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
He's been an elected official.
Speaker 1 (10:50):
He and his team had a meeting with Jack Chitdarelli
about an endorsement. Now he's denying this. He's saying he's
a Democrat, but he is not endorsing the Demomocrat Mickey Cheryl.
He's kind of sitting there and staying out of it.
Speaker 2 (11:03):
He is not.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
In northern New Jersey, there is a Democrat machine. They
go to the projects, they go to the apartment builities,
they drag people have to go vote. They have a
complete operation. Without the local operation support, it absolutely hurts
the Democrats. His public team is saying that he has
not committed to voting for a supporting for a Republican
and he is a Democrat and he's loyal to his party,
(11:26):
but he is not endorsing Cheryl. And the meeting definitely happened,
because there's enough sources to sit there in say that
the meeting happened. It's not so much that he loves
Chitdarelli or is becoming Republican. He is having a feud
with another mayor or, the Union City, New Jersey mayor,
who loves Mickey Cheryl. So, oh, Mikey Cheryl. So that
(11:46):
is really where it is. It's just about, you know,
Democrat on Democrat violence. It's really about who hates who,
who's backing who, And that's really what's causing a lot
of cast in the Democratic Party. A lot of inner
city Democrats do not like the Democratic nominee. They wanted
a minority, they wanted somebody else, they wanted a man.
(12:08):
A lot of cases. Mikey Sheryl comes from a very
very wealthy white area of New Jersey and Montclair. She
does not represent their interests, she does not speak their language.
And it shows. And a lot of these polls that
are showing a jump ball raise are because a lot
of minorities, a lot of Kamala Harris, voters are not
(12:30):
committed to supporting her. I think that that really speaks
to a bigger problem the Democrats are having right now
in the state and nationwide. Republicans so far in this
election for governor are doing a better job at returning
ballots than Democrats are. As of Monday, September twenty ninth,
(12:52):
four percent of all Republicans who have requested a mail
in ballad have returned them. That's better than the three
zero point five percent for Democrats. Independents like way behind
at one point eight. The difference is now. This is good,
this is not cause for great celebration because Democrats have
(13:13):
way more ballots out there for mail in voters. Democrats
are still very comfortable mail in voters. Republicans have gotten
more comfortable, but they are not nearly where the Democrats are.
Fifty eight percent of all mail in ballid applications are
from Democrats, but they have to return them. Returning your
ballid is more important than just receiving it, so Republicans
(13:35):
are returning it at a higher rate. That's a great
news for the Republican candidate. However, Democrats are still.
Speaker 2 (13:42):
Going to win the mail in ballot vote. It's not
a question.
Speaker 1 (13:44):
It's just a matter of is there a chance that
five or six or seven or eight percent or ten
percent or twelve percent do not return their ballot? They
just they forget gets lost in the mail, They go
on vacation, they don't think about it. Last number before
I get into a conversation with about New Jersey, is
a new poll out.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Now.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
Remember last week we had the Emerson Pole. We had
an internal poll showing Chitdarelli either tied or ahead. A
new poll has come out from the conservative website Save Jersey,
finding Cheryl with a two point lead over Republican Chitarelli,
basically the margin of error. The poll was connected by
a firm named Valcore. I don't know that firm particularly well.
I've never heard of it before. Not saying it's a
(14:24):
bad one, I'm just not familiar with it. Betty Markets
still gives Cheryl a seventy percent chance on winning this election.
She's still the odds on favorite, but trends are moving
away from her and Democrats and it's becoming obvious. And
Chitarelli has momentum, which is what you want more than
anything before an election. Is momentum. People feel like you
(14:46):
can win. Polls aren't everything, but sometimes they become self
fulfilling prophecies. I want to do another Jersey election for
a perfect image of this. In twenty thirteen, Chris Christy
won in a huge landslide against a woman named Barbara Bono.
(15:06):
I didn't even have to look up her name. This
is how sick my brain is that I remember the
Demo losing Democratic campaign from a decade ago. But she
went by a huge margin. But the voter turnout was extremely,
extremely low because Poles had sat there and said it's
going to be a blowout, don't even worry about voting
to vote, and Democrats didn't go out and vote, so
it helped with Christy's overall number. When Poles say this
(15:30):
is a tight election, it does ignite the more passionate
group to sit there and show up. Which is what
helped Donald Trump in twenty twenty four is they said
anybody can win, and so you know, somebody who usually
could sit there and sleep on the couch is going
to sit there and show up and turn out and
vote because he said that his guy can win, even
(15:52):
in a state that's not super red, even if a
state that's a purple or a blue state, they were like,
could we could have a complete upset. The opportunities abound.
That's what's happening in these polls. So with me this
week is someone who I'm very interested. He knows all
things New Jersey, the land that gave us John bon Jovi,
Whitney Houston, and Tony Soprano. He is coming up next.
(16:17):
Matt Rooney is the host of the Matt Rooney Show
and founder of Save Jersey dot Com. Matt, thanks for
being here.
Speaker 3 (16:22):
Appreciate you having me. Ryan, good to talk to you.
Speaker 1 (16:24):
Now, Matt, like I feel like I started reading you
in twenty thirteen with Christie's reelect Have you been writing
for that long? Am I like going crazy?
Speaker 3 (16:34):
It's worse than that. Actually, two thousand and eight, I
was a law student at Rutgers University, and naturally I
didn't want to hang out with my comedy classmates twenty
four to seven. As much as I love some of them,
they're nice people, but their ideas are out in left field.
So instead of hitting the books as I probably should have,
I started Save Jersey dot com partially. And you could
(16:57):
appreciate this, Ryan as event. It was Catharta to write
about all the garbage going on in my home state.
But lo and behold, people started reading it and we've
been around ever since.
Speaker 1 (17:07):
Do you know this is how weird my brain works.
I remember you venting in twenty thirteen that Christy did
not do enough to support candidates running for the state
legislature and there was only one pick up in the
whole state legislature that year. Christie had that blowout reelect.
But I remember you venting, and I was really learning.
I mean I was twenty thirteen, it was a while ago.
(17:29):
I was in my early twenties, but I was really
like learning about different ways that how blue state Republican
governors sometimes work with the legislatures, like Larry Hogan and
the Republican governor of Vermont does, and then how some
make it about themselves and so like Schwarzenegger or Christy.
But anyway, I learned that education from Save Jersey. That's
(17:50):
how long I have been reading that website. So you
guys have a poll out today we do breaking news.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
What does the poll say about the race for governor?
Speaker 3 (18:01):
The poll says that Jack can win, which you, being
someone that follows blue state Republican politics very closely is
very much the first obstacle we have to overcome in
a place like Jersey if we ever want to be successful.
People just don't believe they can do it, that it's
worth it. It's easier to move to Florida, South Carolina
(18:23):
wherever else where. We all agree the weather is better,
but the pizza, with all due respect, tastes like ketchup
on a cracker, So we'd prefer to stay in the
pizza belt up here. So what this poll really tells us,
Ryan is that Jack is there. Mikey Cheryl's at forty
seven percent with a universe of almost thirteen hundred likely voters.
(18:45):
Jack's at forty five percent. It very much felt when
I was looking at this as if I was evaluating
a Trump Clinton twenty sixteen pole. You have almost, in
some ways kind of the de facto incumbent Cheryl, because
we're talking about a Democrat whose state party has an
eight hundred and fifty thousand register and advantage statewide but
(19:06):
unable to get the fifty percent, and Jack right there
and winning just about every issue. If you look at
the top lines, whether it be crime, utility, bill increases,
no one is buying what Mikey Cheryl is selling. And
that was before the Naval Academy scandal broke. This poll
(19:27):
came out of the field about twenty four hours before
we learned all of that. So, if you're going to
take one thing away from this survey we conducted, it's that, yeah,
your vote, your vote matters in New Jersey this year,
we could actually win.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
And it's the third poll almost consecutive to say it's
a jump ball race. There was another poll by a
nonprofit and I said, I'm not I'm not a polling truther,
but if I don't know the polling institution, I make
a claim I don't know this institution doing this poll.
And they texted me there, they tweeted me and they
were like, we'll show you our cross ups well she
or methodology, and I said, okay, my dms are open,
(20:02):
sent them to me. Never got them, like so, still
going to be a polling truth about that one. But
among Emerson among the internals that Chitarelly put out, which
was done by a very very well respected within New
Jersey polster, and this poll I don't know this polster
by the way, that that did your poll but I'm
going to trust you because you know you've been in
this for a while. What the thing that is interesting
(20:26):
about those two of those three poles I didn't read
of the crossteps of your pol just for the top lines,
was that Chitterrelly which separates those two polls from all others.
Chitarelly is dominating among independence. Is that the same in
your poll?
Speaker 3 (20:41):
Yeah, he's up with independence. But you know, arguably even
more significantly, the thing that made me nearly fall out
of my chair, He's got about thirty percent of the
urban vote, which, for those of you that fall in
New Jersey or if you're just tuning in for the
first time, part of the reason why New Jersey has
been tough to flip traditionally is that I ninety five corridor,
(21:04):
the part you see on the intro to the Sopranos.
The rest of the state's acting quite lush and green.
Ryan'll backed me up on this, but that's really what
it is, you know, Elizabeth Patterson Hudson and Essex Towny.
But Trump really broke into that Democrat blue firewall last year.
I mean, he won and Jane nine. That's the congressional
(21:27):
district that has Patterson at the heart of it. So early.
I would love I would have loved.
Speaker 1 (21:33):
To been a fly on the wall in New Jersey
Democratic circles when that when Nelly posed district, I mean
she barely won, but they drew that to be a
super safe, impossible to win Democrats seat, and Trump won
it by two points. I would have just loved to
see what they look like when that happened.
Speaker 3 (21:51):
It did not go according to plan, that's the nice
way to put it right. And we know that she's
an empty suit. She's out there last week taking credit
for votes she didn't even take. She was touring MetLife
Stadium talking about all the funds that are going to
be brought in for security for the World Cup next year.
She voted against the bill. So there's a lot of
(22:12):
buyers regret right now across the board in Democrat politics
because Nelly's week, they're very worried about that last year.
The NRCC is already running digital ads in that district.
And then, of course in the gubernatorial race, Mikey Cheryl
I used to call her Kamala of the East Coast.
I'm starting to think it is unfair to Kamala because
(22:33):
Kamala at least occasionally, I don't know, maybe borrow some
of the vitamins they used to inject into Biden and
sounds halfway coherent. Cheryl's not there in a good day.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
And Trump one Passic County, which is extremely important, which
has a heavy Latino population as well, and we saw
that in a number of pockets. Now, I had a
few quick questions to ask you, So what is the
first Gitterally ran in twenty twenty one and did surprisingly well.
I was in a doing a city council race in
(23:05):
New York which we won, and they said, they said
Chittarelly is tied. And it was like eleven PM, and
I go, no, there's no way. I wasn't even looking
at the jersey, was like, oh, that can't be. And
I look at it, go holy cow. What is he
doing differently this time that is better? Is it just
that he's not against an incumbent or is there is
he doing something differently that is more that it is
(23:27):
working his benefit?
Speaker 3 (23:29):
Well, I think some of it, as much as I
want to give him credit, is doing some things better.
Some of it's just environmental. At this point, you've had
eight years of Phil Murphy. He's relatively unpopular in most polling.
We didn't pull him in this survey. I'm kind of
having regret about that because many surveys are coming back
(23:50):
showing him with actually a worse net approval rating than
governor than President Trump in New Jersey, which again is
kind of remarkable when you think about the state that
we're talking about. This is a state that hasn't voted
Republican for president since nineteen eighty eight. But now you've
got someone who is running on Phil Murphy's record. She's
(24:10):
not interested in changing anything. We kind of got a
Kamala ask answer from her when she was asked what
she wanted to do. Differently, I think she gave Phil
Murphy a B plus when asked at one of the
Democrat debates for what rating she would give him.
Speaker 2 (24:26):
I think people so Obama gave himself.
Speaker 1 (24:28):
Do you remember that Obama was like, I'm a solid
B plus president, a.
Speaker 3 (24:33):
Solid B plus president.
Speaker 2 (24:34):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (24:37):
Though, in fairness, when my wife has asked me, I've
said I'm a solid B plus husband. I've kind of
recycled that answer on occasion.
Speaker 1 (24:45):
What is going so what is very unused? It's not
New Jersey is not alone in this, but New Jersey
does the best. I'd give New Jersey a big piece
of credit. Besides the way you don't have to pump
your own gas, which is a great thing New.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
Jersey now Oregon thru in the town quick.
Speaker 1 (25:03):
I know what is what is great about New Jersey
is you do solid monthly reporting on voting data. Unlike
New York and California and other places which take forever,
New Jersey is one of the blue states that does it.
Speaker 2 (25:14):
Every month.
Speaker 1 (25:15):
They show you how many new registered Republicans and Democrats
county wide, congressional district, state Assembly district. New Jersey went
from having one point one million Democrats advantage at one
point one million Democratic advantage in twenty twenty to have
an eight hundred and fifty thousand. Now Republicans have netted
two hundred thousand votes between what Democrats have lost more
(25:35):
Republicans have gained. And it's been fairly organic. There is
not really a Jersey Republican machine. It's not flawd, you
know what I mean, not as close what is going on.
And by the way, and that was during COVID when
a lot of Republicans were leaving Jersey for the for
you know, a free year state.
Speaker 2 (25:54):
So what was what is.
Speaker 1 (25:56):
Going on on the ground in a place like New Jersey,
which are getting either independence or Democrats or just eighteen
year olds to register Republican.
Speaker 3 (26:04):
Yeah, it's a very good point. It's one I've made
to many friends outside in New Jersey in recent weeks.
Scott Presler or Cliff Maloney, these famous Republican ballot chasers.
They're here now, but they've only been here for months,
not for years. Jack Chitdarelli came within three points in
twenty one. Trump came under six points in twenty twenty
(26:26):
four with no infrastructure. And I think the simple answer
is twofold one. As I was talking about before, we've
seen a preview of where the left is going nationally
for a while now, and we don't love it. I
always like to say a little crass. I apologize, but
it doesn't matter who gets to pee in which bathroom.
(26:46):
If no one can afford to live here, their priorities
are whacked out. And with our utility bills jumping, highest
property taxes in the nation, I think perhaps here there's
fatigue with that messaging. First. Also, so we're a very
diverse state relative to a lot of the other states
in the Union, and certainly some of the purple and
red states, like in Ohio, we have a lot of
(27:08):
Hispanic voters. Here, there's a lot of blackmail voters. There's
a lot of young New Jerseyans that don't necessarily vote
the same way as their parents or their grandparents. So
for the longest time, these kind of woke, affluent suburbs
in places like Morris County have helped Democrats remain strong here.
But if all of a sudden, a Republican like Jack
(27:28):
Schittarelli starts getting thirty percent of the urban vote, because
these voters don't recognize their values, of their priorities in
what they're hearing from someone like Mikey Cheryl, they're not
just in trouble, they're arguably doomed. We used to hear
when you and I were a little younger, demographics or
destiny for an argument as to why Republicans were eventually
going to go the way of the dinosaur. That's now
(27:50):
completely flipped, and you may be seeing it most acutely
here in New Jersey.
Speaker 1 (27:55):
Yeah, Mikey Cheryl was really bad in the Democratic prime
already in the urban vote the urban Democrat minority Democrats
specifically did not want her.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
She lives, I.
Speaker 1 (28:05):
Think in a community where I think the averaging comes
one hundred and sixty thousand dollars per person. It's an
incredibly white area.
Speaker 3 (28:12):
They don't go to church Chamont Clair. They go to
Drag Queen's Story Houry their secular ritual. Yeah, and it's
it illustrates very much Ryan Like, that's the bubble that
she occupies, and I think everyone outside of that bubble
in New Jersey is starting to wake up.
Speaker 1 (28:30):
What does it say that two Democratic mayors now have
endorsed her and there was allegedly and I know you
guys talked about it on Save Jersey. The meeting with
Nick Saiko is how you pronounce the last name Nick Jacho? Oh, yeah,
there was a meeting.
Speaker 3 (28:44):
Boss.
Speaker 2 (28:45):
He's denying it, but there was a meeting.
Speaker 1 (28:47):
He does not like, uh, the Union City Democratic mayor
who loves Cheryl.
Speaker 2 (28:53):
What does it say that.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
Some Democratic mayors are willing to throw their hat in
behind Chitdarelli.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
Well, I mean all the way back to the beginning
name of our convo of twenty thirteen, even two thousand
and nine, when Chris Christie was coming on strong. That's
what you began to see all across New Jersey. The
Democrat bosses began to split from the progressive base because
at the end of the day, these guys, they don't
really believe in anything. They're transactional, so in order to
(29:20):
main control of the street, they don't want to go
in a complete opposite direction of it. So if they're
hearing as we're hearing, and we're seeing in certain data,
including an air poll, that black voters, Hispanic voters are saying,
you know, we're not picking up what Mikey Cheryl's putting down.
I wouldn't be surprised if you see a few more
Democrat mayors before the end of this cycle say you
(29:44):
know what we're gonna We're gonna make a deal with Jack.
We're going to join up with the Republicans at least
this time around, in signal our independence. And that's particularly
bad news for her because, let's face it, we have
to pull Republicans out of the House to get him
to vote early. Right, it's getting a little bit easier,
but it's still not hard. These old krusty again, they
(30:04):
look like extras from the sopranos party bosses up north.
They know how to get it done. They go door
to door, They've got lists. She can't win without them.
Speaker 1 (30:13):
Right, The Democratic Party machine is no joke, especially in
the case of Sacho in that city. Now peddling back
from the there's not just the governor's race, which is
obviously the most important and the most paid attention to,
especially with all this momentum hind Shittarelli. The legislature is
up for a vote, and Republicans made in men's gains
(30:34):
I think four years ago, and then they lost their
gains two years ago in the state House. Now they
have it up again. Is there any chance for Republicans
to gain the state legislature this time?
Speaker 3 (30:45):
Yeah, there is, and you know significantly enough, Chitdarelli. Even
though we lost by three points last time, to your point,
had those tremendous cottails in twenty twenty one, we picked
up a bunch of seats in South Jersey. I think
we could do it again. I'll give you one very
clear example, the third Legislative District, which is deep South Jersey,
(31:05):
so deep that you actually will get a Southern accent occasionally.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
I don't know. I don't know about that one mat
you look.
Speaker 3 (31:13):
Next time you visit. We have a rodeo. It's called
the Cowtown Rodeo in LD three, and I took a
friend there from Montanda and he said it was legitimate.
So okay, I will make I'll make a believer of you.
That's a seven point five percent Trump district. It's currently
represented by an entirely Democrat legislative delegation. So if Jack
(31:35):
wins by what he should, I think you could see
Republicans pick up anywhere between a few seats to as
many as nine or even ten seats in the Assembly. Unfortunately,
the state Senate's not up this year. They won't be
on the bout again n till twenty seven. That may
be one of the only silver linings for Democrats right now,
because it might stave off a potentially larger catastrophe if
(31:58):
Jack really does run up the numbers. So I would.
I'll tell you this much. If you're listening to Ryan's
podcast and you want a viewer guide for election night,
New Jersey two counties in particular, you got to keep
your eye on Bergen and Gloucester. Gloucester has pieces of
three which I just mentioned in four, which I want
(32:19):
to say, is like a Harris plus one or two
district baked into it.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
As South Jersey for those who don't know. But Gloucester's
in South Jersey.
Speaker 3 (32:27):
It's in South Jersey, not far from Philly. It's traditionally
been a purple county, but it's moving to the right.
I think Jack wanted by like ten points last time,
so watch that also Bergen. Bergen got pretty blue because
of the suburban shift in the early part of the
Trump error, but it is now swinging back. Trump actually
(32:48):
performed pretty strongly there in twenty twenty four. This is
the most populous county in New Jersey, classic New York suburbs.
Watch that county. If Jack is closer wins Bergen County
on election night, he's going to succeed. And there are
maybe about four Assembly seats that he can win in
that county alone, thirty eight and thirty six.
Speaker 1 (33:10):
You know, Matt is not in your writing anyway, though.
This is the first time I ever spoken. You are
not an optimist, so you are coming off this is
a this you are I feel like you feel like
there's a lot going in favor of the Republicans right now.
Speaker 2 (33:22):
In New Jersey.
Speaker 3 (33:24):
What I always like to say, my friend is I'm
a hyperrealist, right we if you are working in a
state like New Jersey, you have to proceed sometimes in
the absence of hope because we don't.
Speaker 2 (33:37):
Right, I understand, I relate completely. I'm from New York.
I get it.
Speaker 3 (33:40):
Yeah, you get It's one of the reasons we get
along famously now because it's we have a similar mindset,
similar worldview. At look, at the end of the day,
I am optimistic this year because of what I can
see with my eyes. Disregard the glasses for a second,
because I can see well enough with them. This Trump
coalition that came together over the course of nearly a decade. Now,
(34:02):
the fear has been that it's only going to stand
with the President, that it's not going to translate to
anyone else. What we suspect we're seeing here in New Jersey,
and we've got a lot of evidence to back it up,
is that no, it is something that is part of
a sustainable realignment. Now, of course, it's up to Republican
candidates to make sure they continue to earn those votes.
(34:23):
It's not something that's a birthright that's going to get
handed down as a matter of right. But Jack has
hit the right notes. Republicans this year running strong in
New Jersey, and there's all the evidence that they are
going to put some semblance of that Trump coalition together
this November. And as I'm always telling my friends in Pennsylvania,
New York, everywhere else, if New Jersey's purple, some of
(34:44):
these other purple states are never going to be anything
but read.
Speaker 1 (34:46):
Again, Well, the slogan people are saying is Pennsylvania is
the new Ohio and New Jersey is in New Pennsylvania.
My last question is one of the Trump so looking
at twenty twenty four, did significantly better than Trump in
western New Jersey, in southern New Jersey and in like
more of the affluent suburbs. Trump did much better among
(35:09):
minorities and among the Orthodox Jewish. But there's a large
Orthodox Jewish vote in Lakewood, New Jersey. Lakewood has a
Democratic state House member, even though it is a super
Republican area, because he's an Orthodox Jew. Do Republicans have
a chance both at winning back that state House seat?
And two, how are the Orthodox Jews because they split
their vote last time? Even though that Chitarelly won it
(35:30):
they were not as I think Trump won the Orthodox
Jews by like plus seventy seven and Chittle went like
plus thirty. Is it more that's a big population. Is
there more of a chance of Chitarelly getting some support
from them?
Speaker 3 (35:44):
Oh, it's it's massive. I think the next time we
draw the districts, they're probably going to have their own
legislative district, which is really it's really remarkable. I think
there's a good chance that Jack is going to get them.
Phil Murphy, for as much as I like to make
fun of the guy and criticize the guy, because he
deserves every little bit of it, he's a shrewd politician.
(36:05):
Nobody would accuse him of being stupid. He cut the
r ideals and the leaders of that particular community. Again,
like many bosses in New Jersey politics tend to be transactional.
Part of the reason why there's now a Democrat there
is not because the guy is super far left. It's
because they couldn't break in and get their own Republican seats.
They decided to make a deal with somebody that would
(36:27):
give them one. So the way you win out there
is by not trying to win the Republican primary, it's
by becoming a Democrat. But I think Jack is going
to do very well. And I think that we could
get to a point on election night Ryan where if
he really does run away with this thing and opens
it up, and by New Jersey standards, that would be
Jack winning by a few points statewide reflected down ballot
(36:51):
a red place like Ocean County, the margin might just
get so wide that some wacky things start to happen,
including a Republican regaining his seat eat when otherwise, because
of all the deals have been made down ballot, you
might not really have a chance of recapturing that lake
would seed well.
Speaker 1 (37:08):
And I also think because they want it in twenty
twenty three, when turnout was much lower, but except for
the Jewish community to turnout.
Speaker 2 (37:15):
Was very very high.
Speaker 1 (37:16):
So I'm hopeful that because you know, Joe Shmo, who
doesn't usually vote, goes to vote for Jack down all
Republican and they'll win that seat. I'm curious about it.
Where can people go to read more of the Great
Matt Rooney and all things New Jersey.
Speaker 3 (37:29):
The Great Matt Runey I did not pay him to
say that, so you can check me out on X
of course Matt Rooney and Jay and then of course
you can visit Savejersey dot com. That's where I post
all my rantings and ramblings. And obviously we're going to
continue to analyze the data and provide plenty of commentary
now through November. It's going to be exciting. That's the
(37:51):
one thing we can guarantee. And if it goes the
way that I really do believe it can go, here Ryan,
stay tuned, don't tune turn away or tune now after
overb fourth because if New Jersey has an America first governor,
can you imagine the leftists freak out?
Speaker 1 (38:06):
Well if New Jersey, I mean Trump lost New Jersey
by about six If New Jersey is a swing state,
I mean the whole country changes. I mean, it really
does change. And of all the states aside from like
when was the last time like a true blue state
became a swing state. I mean a lot of swing
(38:26):
states have become red states, and a few red states
have become blues dates, but I the last like true
blue red state is hard to think of that became
a I mean you have to go back to the nineties,
I think.
Speaker 2 (38:38):
So it's a big big, big change, a big deal.
Speaker 3 (38:40):
It's a big deal, and it's also a huge deal
for the mid terms. I keep reminding every one of
their history before New Gingridge's Republican Revolution, it was preceded
in ninety three by a victory in New Jersey, the
Tea Party Revolution to twenty ten, two thousand and ninety
year before Chris Christie upset John resign and flip New Jersey.
(39:02):
So it's not just about the larger picture, it's also
about two thousand and twenty six. If the Republicans are
successful in my home state this year, this whole blue
wave backlash against the tyrant Trump narrative they're trying to
run with it evaporates.
Speaker 2 (39:19):
Well, Matt, thanks coming on this podcast. I appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (39:22):
Thanks for having me, sir.
Speaker 1 (39:23):
Hey, we'll be right back after this. Now it's time
to Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to be
part of the Ask Me Anything segment, please email me
Ryan at Numbers Gamepodcast dot com. That's Ryan at Numbers Plural,
Numbers Game Podcast dot com. I love via emails.
Speaker 2 (39:40):
I get them all.
Speaker 1 (39:41):
I've been reading a lot about my mom's interview about
the nine to eleven surviving the nine to eleven. I'm
going to pass them along to her. Such nice comments,
I genuinely appreciate it. But if you have any show
ideas or questions you want me to answer on the show,
I'm here for it.
Speaker 2 (39:55):
I'm down for it. Okay, first question, Hey Ryan, my
name is Robbi.
Speaker 1 (39:59):
I've actually bumped into you a few times about a
decade and a half ago, back in New York. I
live in northeastern Pennsylvania. It's hell, sorry, Robby. I like
Northeast in Pennsylvania, but I've never lived there. I've was
inspired to get involved in my first campaign in twenty
twenty four for Trump and a few other candidates. My
(40:19):
top issue is immigration, immigration, immigration, crime, and inflation. I've
been avid follower for fifteen years and listen to you everywhere.
I'm excited about your video for the podcast. Is there
any chance that you can make ask me anything into
a sort of two way? No, because I don't tape
at the same time every week, so i'd have to
(40:39):
make sure that everyone knew what time I was taping.
It's not a fixed thing. I don't know the technology either.
It would just be very, very difficult. I'll probably just
read your answers and maybe publish like a little snippet.
Speaker 2 (40:51):
But I'm not gonna.
Speaker 1 (40:52):
I can't do that. It's just the technology has passed
me and my schedule is too crazy. I'm actually not
paid to be Ryan Gradusky. I don't just do personality
stuff I do. I have a company and I work,
so it's very difficult. I have to work around guest time.
It's just that's a little impossible for me right now.
Maybe if the show really takes off and all I
do is the show, that we can make that happen,
but it's not capable right now. My reason for this
(41:14):
emails if you could do an episode or two in
political violence. I think I did one. You probably send
it before this the podcast and bring on an colter
to share her own past experiences and has been my
number one favorite for many years. And maybe you two
could do a podcast and then a little tour together.
I would love to have another episode with ann On.
I have to reach out to her. This is a
(41:35):
great idea. I think we could really speak to like
left wing violence. I had ann on the very beginning
of the show, on like the first episode, as far
as like a live event. It's my that's my big ambition.
One day you do a live event with this podcast.
I just need to boost the numbers up to make
sure that people will show up. And I'm not speaking
to an empty room, not like I'm not doing that
right now, but to have people to listen to me.
(41:59):
So tell your friends and family and like and subscribe
to this podcast, and maybe that will happen. But thank you, Robbie. Okay,
last question for this episode. Hi, Ryan, I just listened
to your nine to eleven episode.
Speaker 2 (42:10):
Your mom.
Speaker 1 (42:10):
Thank you for sharing her story. Nine to eleven becomes more
abstract even from any of us, so it was good
to hear a personal perspective. Thank you for that comment.
By the way, this reader's name is Stephanie. Thank you, Stephanie.
I love your podcast. I learn a lot each episode.
Thank you for bringing data. I would be interested in
data about interracial marriage. In what parts of the country
is interracial marriage rate highest lowest, How does it differ
(42:33):
across so so economic classes, how does it differ across races,
which immigrant groups are more or less likely to marry
outside their race? And has a gun up or down?
Since BLM, Stephanie, that is a great question that I've
never really thought about before.
Speaker 2 (42:46):
Let me, I did crunch some data, so let me
get it for you.
Speaker 1 (42:50):
It's a little difficult to answer because Latinos, for example.
Speaker 2 (42:55):
Or Arabs are not a race. They are an ethnic group, so.
Speaker 1 (43:00):
They it's not a perfect way did I decipher this?
It's kind of a little a little messy. And marriage
data is not like birth data, where we publish it
constantly in the CDC or in the Yeah, in the
CDC every year, and the scale of what is considered
(43:21):
a white person changes pretty dramatically with over time. Like
you know, one hundred years ago, Italians and Irish weren't
classified as white and now Armenians and Georgians are. So
working with what I had at my availability, the number
one group I actually did not know. I didn't know this,
but I didn't. I didn't put this in my head
(43:41):
for some reason. This comes from twenty fifteen's Pew Research data,
so it's a little dated. But the number one group
for interracial marriage, and it is by far the highest,
is actually Asians. Asian Americans. Forty six percent of all
Asian Americans who are born in the US married out
side their race. It is wide scale. The farthest highest.
(44:03):
The second would be Latinos. Latinos are at twenty seven percent,
so which is very high, one in four, with forty
percent of those being Hispanics who marry whites. Anyway, that
is the that's the number one, and number two it's
Asians and then Hispanics. And you asked about immigrant group, obviously,
then it's Asian because Asians have our fairly new immigrant
(44:26):
group in the long history of our country, and by
the second generation, a lot of them marry outside of
their race, of Asian women being the highest among all
groups at thirty seven percent of all Asian women. Among
Asian women born in america's over fifty percent. As far
as which area it is in the West that the
(44:46):
state that is the number one interracial marriage is actually Hawaii,
something else I did not know, and they said overall
the West Coast has the highest map when it comes
to socioeconomic class. I would guess, and this is a
guest because the data didn't say this, but if it's
Asian Americans who have the highest level of college degree holders,
it's probably higher income people with higher college degree levels.
(45:11):
Once again, that's a guest, but that is probably which
one it is, and as far as going up or down,
the data is all pre BLMS, so I don't have
any new data to give to you. It's not like
the government reports every year along with other information. So
that's that's the info, Stephanie. On interracial marriage. I hope
you found interesting. I found interesting researching it, even there
(45:33):
are questions that I don't I'm not super passionate about.
I find interesting doing this research. So that's a great question, Stepanie.
Thank you for sending it to me. I appreciate you listening,
and I appreciate you all listening. If you like this podcast,
please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
wherever you get your podcasts, and I will talk to
you guys on Thursday
Welcome back to a numbers game that Ryan grud Uski.
Happy Monday. We are thirty six days until the twenty
twenty five elections. I know, originally I said today was
going to be all about Virginia, but a number of
people have reached out to me and they want to
talk about New Jersey. A lot of polls have come
out that made this raise much more interesting. And now
I'm a Northeasterner, so I'm kind of really interested in Jersey,
(00:22):
so I couldn't wait to do it as well. We
will do a deep dive on Virginia next Monday. I
already have a guest laid out who knows all things
Virginia data, and they will have a lot of early votes,
will have a lot to decipher and go through. I
think it'll be very, very exciting. I'm also going to
do an episode on Pennsylvania because they have an important
election which is completely going under the radar, which everyone
should be talking about or at least know a little
(00:44):
bit about. All Right, before we get into the Garden State,
here are some other numbers that I think you all
should know and we need to address. First across the
pond in the UK, the polling for an ipsis. They
did a poll on the Prime Minister and is appro
rating Prime Minister Keir Starmer. He is a member of
the Labor Party, the British version of the Democratic Party.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
They found that he has.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
A thirteen percent appro rating a seventy nine percent unfavorable,
writing now, not only is this a bad number, it
is the worst number of any prime minister ever polled
since IPSEY started in nineteen eighty. That includes Liz Trust,
the former Tory Conservative Prime minister who lasted only forty
(01:30):
nine days in the job. This is obviously not a
great place to be and Starmer is reacting by writing
an op ed in The Telegraph, which is a pretty
prominent British paper, talking about how he's going to issue
issue digital ID cards to sit there and crackdown on
illegal immigrants taking British shops. He's also talked about the
(01:52):
fact that they need to crack down on legal immigration.
He knows and immigration is the number one issue for
British voters and there's a direct relation to immigration and
the cost of living, immigration and the economy, and the
economy is the bad spot. They're calling the UK the
sick man of the g seven, that it is doing
horrifically bad in the economy, that the cost of living,
(02:14):
the cost of owning a home is enormously high, and
the British public are outraged and they are looking for
alternatives to the traditional Tory and Labor Party, you know,
chance parties, that they're not looking for the same parties
they've always elected, dating back hundreds of years. In the
case of the Tories, A Sunday Times which is also
(02:36):
another British paper, poll predicts that if the election we're
held today, Reform UK, led by Nigel Faraj, is expected
to win the election with an astounding three hundred and
seventy three seats, while the Labor Party would come in
second with just ninety seats and the Tories would have
just forty. They would be a minority party. Now imagine
(02:57):
had Donald Trump ran under the America Party or a
third party or whatnot and Europe and in just you know,
before he even had you know, first midterm elections or
whatever the case may be in the American version or
his second election, that the Republicans would be a minority
party and the Democrats would be shellacked and losing two
(03:21):
thirds of their support that's what's happening in the UK.
All Over most of Western Europe we're seeing leaders scramble
with declining support and increasing political instability. Leaders in Germany, France,
the UK and Spain are all suffering suffering from declining
support and nationalist party populist parties are surging across the board.
(03:43):
Now the elections in most of Western Europe aren't happening.
There is one election in late October in the Netherlands,
but that's that's it's interesting and I'm going to talk
about it, but it's not the most consequential to the
fairly small cuntry. And also, the Netherlands has like two
hundred political parties, so everyone gets a seat and they
(04:04):
all squabble about, you know, creating political unions.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
It's it's messy.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
Sometimes it takes months for the Netherlands to create a
government while everyone tries to find out who's alliance they're on.
But it's the Netherlands, so no one really notices anyway.
Most Western countries, major Western countries do not have an
election until twenty twenty seven. There's a few smaller countries
like Denmark and Sweden and Hungary and Slovenia, that have elections,
but we're talking the UK, France, Italy, Germany, these big countries, Spain,
(04:34):
they don't have elections for quite some time. And what
these European leaders in Germany and in France with Manuel
Macron and in the UK with Starmar are hoping for
is that they somehow improve the economy some and deal
with at least illegal immigration in some capacity, maybe deport
(04:55):
some criminals. So that way these populous parties like like
Marine Lapenn's national Rally, like the AfD in Germany, like
Box in Spain, taper off support voters come back to
the center and support these traditional left right parties.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
I don't know if that's going to happen.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
I don't know if some of these parties will be
able to keep the government going before they can collapse.
We will see and I will tell you about it.
But this is what's brewing in Europe. It is not
impossible that we close our eyes wake up at twenty
nine and most of Western Europe is governed by a
national populist party and president or prime minister. It is
(05:42):
very interesting how things are unfolding. Now back to the
United States, specifically three states. Let's talk about Missouri, the
show me state. This story flew completely under the radar
Republican Governor Mike Keho SIGNDI bill creating new Congression lines
in Missouri. It will turn the fifth Congressional District, which
(06:03):
is currently represented by a Manual Kleaver who's held the
seat for twenty years. He's a Democrat, into a Republican district.
Under the current lines, the district voted for Kamala Harris
by a sixty one to thirty seven margin. This new
map splits the city of Kansas City into three different
districts and turns the district the fifth Congressional District, which
(06:25):
completely encompasses Kansas City right now from Aharis plus twenty
three seat to a Trump plus eighteen seat. It will
likely guarantee that a Republican will win the seat, adding
to the Republican delegation next year. The map is likely
to end up in some lawsuits, especially given what's going
(06:45):
on right now in Louisiana and Alabama with their lawsuits.
If the Supreme Court decides to strike down or radically
reform Section two of the Voting Rights Act, which protects
minority majority districts throughout the country. Though not white majority
districts in places that they are a minority, like in California.
But if they strike or modify section two of the VRA,
(07:09):
I think that this map will be okay. I think
this map will stay. I think they will gain this
extra seat and Republicans will have one more seat going
into the midterms. Go to another state we're talking about redistricting,
which is Maryland.
Speaker 2 (07:24):
Now.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
When Texas redistricted, a lot of Democratic governors started puffing
their chests and saying they were going to do something,
and most of them didn't because most of them don't
have the power do anything. Well, one of those who
did have the power to do something and could have
is the Democratic governor of Maryland named Wes Moore. Maryland
has one Republican Congression congressional district and he was promising
(07:47):
to redistrict that into oblivion and make it a Democratic seat.
He has since backed away from that comment and he's
giving the the he's giving the smoke.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
Signals that will not happen.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
Why will it not happen, Well, it does anything to
do with him. It has to be with the former
governor Larry Hogan. It was a Republican of Maryland. Now,
for the true blue Republican listeners of the show, you
may have said Larry Hogan was a rhino, Larry Hogan
was terrible. Larry Hogan, you know, didn't like Trump, which
is true, he didn't like Trump. However, what Larry Hogan
(08:20):
did do which many blue state Republican governors do not do,
is he actually appointed Republicans to the Supreme Court of Maryland,
and Maryland Supreme Court is five to Republican. What Democrats,
including Wes Moore, are afraid of is not only will
a new map be struck down by the Republican majority
(08:40):
Supreme Court appointed by Larry Hogan, is that they will
strike down the current map as well, redraw it and
give Republicans not one seat but two and possibly make
a third swing seat in the state. That would be
devastating to Republicans. That would be deructive to Wes Moore.
(09:01):
He knows it, he knows he could not run for
He's saying he's not running for president, but in case
he changes his mind, as politicians are known.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
To do that.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
If he went to a debate stage and Gavin Newsom
said I gained Ford Democratic seats, you lost us one
or two seats. That would be an absolute ko knockout
with Democratic activists. So it doesn't look like Democrats can
count on Maryland to add to their delegation in redistricting
so far. Maybe he'll change his mind, but it looks
(09:33):
like it's he's trying to preempt a move by the
Republican Supreme Court in the state. Okay, now here's for
the main show for the Garden State. For New Jersey,
Jack Chiarelli is continuing to have more news break in
his favor. He received the endorsement of a Democratic mayor
named James Dodd of Dover, New Jersey. Now, Dover is
not a Republican town. It voted for Harris by fifty
(09:54):
six percent and by for Biden in twenty twenty by
sixty seven percent. This is the This isn't the first
time that a Democrat mayor has endorsed Chittarelli. The mayor
of Garfield, New Jersey endorsement. But Garfield is a place
that was very Democratic back in twenty twelve and has
moved to the right in every subsequent election, and in
(10:16):
twenty twenty four Trump won it, So it makes sense
that he's trying to align with his voters in a
town that is increasingly becoming a Republican. That is not
the case with Dover.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
Now.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
The biggest, the big possibility, the biggest possibility for Chitdarelli
around getting Democratic mayor support is a meeting he allegedly
had two weeks ago with a man named Nicholas Sacho.
Saco has been an elected official from Northern Bergen in
New Jersey, Northern New Jersey, right outside of New York
City for since nineteen eighty five, since before I was born.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
He's been an elected official.
Speaker 1 (10:50):
He and his team had a meeting with Jack Chitdarelli
about an endorsement. Now he's denying this. He's saying he's
a Democrat, but he is not endorsing the Demomocrat Mickey Cheryl.
He's kind of sitting there and staying out of it.
Speaker 2 (11:03):
He is not.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
In northern New Jersey, there is a Democrat machine. They
go to the projects, they go to the apartment builities,
they drag people have to go vote. They have a
complete operation. Without the local operation support, it absolutely hurts
the Democrats. His public team is saying that he has
not committed to voting for a supporting for a Republican
and he is a Democrat and he's loyal to his party,
(11:26):
but he is not endorsing Cheryl. And the meeting definitely happened,
because there's enough sources to sit there in say that
the meeting happened. It's not so much that he loves
Chitdarelli or is becoming Republican. He is having a feud
with another mayor or, the Union City, New Jersey mayor,
who loves Mickey Cheryl. So, oh, Mikey Cheryl. So that
(11:46):
is really where it is. It's just about, you know,
Democrat on Democrat violence. It's really about who hates who,
who's backing who, And that's really what's causing a lot
of cast in the Democratic Party. A lot of inner
city Democrats do not like the Democratic nominee. They wanted
a minority, they wanted somebody else, they wanted a man.
(12:08):
A lot of cases. Mikey Sheryl comes from a very
very wealthy white area of New Jersey and Montclair. She
does not represent their interests, she does not speak their language.
And it shows. And a lot of these polls that
are showing a jump ball raise are because a lot
of minorities, a lot of Kamala Harris, voters are not
(12:30):
committed to supporting her. I think that that really speaks
to a bigger problem the Democrats are having right now
in the state and nationwide. Republicans so far in this
election for governor are doing a better job at returning
ballots than Democrats are. As of Monday, September twenty ninth,
(12:52):
four percent of all Republicans who have requested a mail
in ballad have returned them. That's better than the three
zero point five percent for Democrats. Independents like way behind
at one point eight. The difference is now. This is good,
this is not cause for great celebration because Democrats have
(13:13):
way more ballots out there for mail in voters. Democrats
are still very comfortable mail in voters. Republicans have gotten
more comfortable, but they are not nearly where the Democrats are.
Fifty eight percent of all mail in ballid applications are
from Democrats, but they have to return them. Returning your
ballid is more important than just receiving it, so Republicans
(13:35):
are returning it at a higher rate. That's a great
news for the Republican candidate. However, Democrats are still.
Speaker 2 (13:42):
Going to win the mail in ballot vote. It's not
a question.
Speaker 1 (13:44):
It's just a matter of is there a chance that
five or six or seven or eight percent or ten
percent or twelve percent do not return their ballot? They
just they forget gets lost in the mail, They go
on vacation, they don't think about it. Last number before
I get into a conversation with about New Jersey, is
a new poll out.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Now.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
Remember last week we had the Emerson Pole. We had
an internal poll showing Chitdarelli either tied or ahead. A
new poll has come out from the conservative website Save Jersey,
finding Cheryl with a two point lead over Republican Chitarelli,
basically the margin of error. The poll was connected by
a firm named Valcore. I don't know that firm particularly well.
I've never heard of it before. Not saying it's a
(14:24):
bad one, I'm just not familiar with it. Betty Markets
still gives Cheryl a seventy percent chance on winning this election.
She's still the odds on favorite, but trends are moving
away from her and Democrats and it's becoming obvious. And
Chitarelli has momentum, which is what you want more than
anything before an election. Is momentum. People feel like you
(14:46):
can win. Polls aren't everything, but sometimes they become self
fulfilling prophecies. I want to do another Jersey election for
a perfect image of this. In twenty thirteen, Chris Christy
won in a huge landslide against a woman named Barbara Bono.
(15:06):
I didn't even have to look up her name. This
is how sick my brain is that I remember the
Demo losing Democratic campaign from a decade ago. But she
went by a huge margin. But the voter turnout was extremely,
extremely low because Poles had sat there and said it's
going to be a blowout, don't even worry about voting
to vote, and Democrats didn't go out and vote, so
it helped with Christy's overall number. When Poles say this
(15:30):
is a tight election, it does ignite the more passionate
group to sit there and show up. Which is what
helped Donald Trump in twenty twenty four is they said
anybody can win, and so you know, somebody who usually
could sit there and sleep on the couch is going
to sit there and show up and turn out and
vote because he said that his guy can win, even
(15:52):
in a state that's not super red, even if a
state that's a purple or a blue state, they were like,
could we could have a complete upset. The opportunities abound.
That's what's happening in these polls. So with me this
week is someone who I'm very interested. He knows all
things New Jersey, the land that gave us John bon Jovi,
Whitney Houston, and Tony Soprano. He is coming up next.
(16:17):
Matt Rooney is the host of the Matt Rooney Show
and founder of Save Jersey dot Com. Matt, thanks for
being here.
Speaker 3 (16:22):
Appreciate you having me. Ryan, good to talk to you.
Speaker 1 (16:24):
Now, Matt, like I feel like I started reading you
in twenty thirteen with Christie's reelect Have you been writing
for that long? Am I like going crazy?
Speaker 3 (16:34):
It's worse than that. Actually, two thousand and eight, I
was a law student at Rutgers University, and naturally I
didn't want to hang out with my comedy classmates twenty
four to seven. As much as I love some of them,
they're nice people, but their ideas are out in left field.
So instead of hitting the books as I probably should have,
I started Save Jersey dot com partially. And you could
(16:57):
appreciate this, Ryan as event. It was Catharta to write
about all the garbage going on in my home state.
But lo and behold, people started reading it and we've
been around ever since.
Speaker 1 (17:07):
Do you know this is how weird my brain works.
I remember you venting in twenty thirteen that Christy did
not do enough to support candidates running for the state
legislature and there was only one pick up in the
whole state legislature that year. Christie had that blowout reelect.
But I remember you venting, and I was really learning.
I mean I was twenty thirteen, it was a while ago.
(17:29):
I was in my early twenties, but I was really
like learning about different ways that how blue state Republican
governors sometimes work with the legislatures, like Larry Hogan and
the Republican governor of Vermont does, and then how some
make it about themselves and so like Schwarzenegger or Christy.
But anyway, I learned that education from Save Jersey. That's
(17:50):
how long I have been reading that website. So you
guys have a poll out today we do breaking news.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
What does the poll say about the race for governor?
Speaker 3 (18:01):
The poll says that Jack can win, which you, being
someone that follows blue state Republican politics very closely is
very much the first obstacle we have to overcome in
a place like Jersey if we ever want to be successful.
People just don't believe they can do it, that it's
worth it. It's easier to move to Florida, South Carolina
(18:23):
wherever else where. We all agree the weather is better,
but the pizza, with all due respect, tastes like ketchup
on a cracker, So we'd prefer to stay in the
pizza belt up here. So what this poll really tells us,
Ryan is that Jack is there. Mikey Cheryl's at forty
seven percent with a universe of almost thirteen hundred likely voters.
(18:45):
Jack's at forty five percent. It very much felt when
I was looking at this as if I was evaluating
a Trump Clinton twenty sixteen pole. You have almost, in
some ways kind of the de facto incumbent Cheryl, because
we're talking about a Democrat whose state party has an
eight hundred and fifty thousand register and advantage statewide but
(19:06):
unable to get the fifty percent, and Jack right there
and winning just about every issue. If you look at
the top lines, whether it be crime, utility, bill increases,
no one is buying what Mikey Cheryl is selling. And
that was before the Naval Academy scandal broke. This poll
(19:27):
came out of the field about twenty four hours before
we learned all of that. So, if you're going to
take one thing away from this survey we conducted, it's that, yeah,
your vote, your vote matters in New Jersey this year,
we could actually win.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
And it's the third poll almost consecutive to say it's
a jump ball race. There was another poll by a
nonprofit and I said, I'm not I'm not a polling truther,
but if I don't know the polling institution, I make
a claim I don't know this institution doing this poll.
And they texted me there, they tweeted me and they
were like, we'll show you our cross ups well she
or methodology, and I said, okay, my dms are open,
(20:02):
sent them to me. Never got them, like so, still
going to be a polling truth about that one. But
among Emerson among the internals that Chitarelly put out, which
was done by a very very well respected within New
Jersey polster, and this poll I don't know this polster
by the way, that that did your poll but I'm
going to trust you because you know you've been in
this for a while. What the thing that is interesting
(20:26):
about those two of those three poles I didn't read
of the crossteps of your pol just for the top lines,
was that Chitterrelly which separates those two polls from all others.
Chitarelly is dominating among independence. Is that the same in
your poll?
Speaker 3 (20:41):
Yeah, he's up with independence. But you know, arguably even
more significantly, the thing that made me nearly fall out
of my chair, He's got about thirty percent of the
urban vote, which, for those of you that fall in
New Jersey or if you're just tuning in for the
first time, part of the reason why New Jersey has
been tough to flip traditionally is that I ninety five corridor,
(21:04):
the part you see on the intro to the Sopranos.
The rest of the state's acting quite lush and green.
Ryan'll backed me up on this, but that's really what
it is, you know, Elizabeth Patterson Hudson and Essex Towny.
But Trump really broke into that Democrat blue firewall last year.
I mean, he won and Jane nine. That's the congressional
(21:27):
district that has Patterson at the heart of it. So early.
I would love I would have loved.
Speaker 1 (21:33):
To been a fly on the wall in New Jersey
Democratic circles when that when Nelly posed district, I mean
she barely won, but they drew that to be a
super safe, impossible to win Democrats seat, and Trump won
it by two points. I would have just loved to
see what they look like when that happened.
Speaker 3 (21:51):
It did not go according to plan, that's the nice
way to put it right. And we know that she's
an empty suit. She's out there last week taking credit
for votes she didn't even take. She was touring MetLife
Stadium talking about all the funds that are going to
be brought in for security for the World Cup next year.
She voted against the bill. So there's a lot of
(22:12):
buyers regret right now across the board in Democrat politics
because Nelly's week, they're very worried about that last year.
The NRCC is already running digital ads in that district.
And then, of course in the gubernatorial race, Mikey Cheryl
I used to call her Kamala of the East Coast.
I'm starting to think it is unfair to Kamala because
(22:33):
Kamala at least occasionally, I don't know, maybe borrow some
of the vitamins they used to inject into Biden and
sounds halfway coherent. Cheryl's not there in a good day.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
And Trump one Passic County, which is extremely important, which
has a heavy Latino population as well, and we saw
that in a number of pockets. Now, I had a
few quick questions to ask you, So what is the
first Gitterally ran in twenty twenty one and did surprisingly well.
I was in a doing a city council race in
(23:05):
New York which we won, and they said, they said
Chittarelly is tied. And it was like eleven PM, and
I go, no, there's no way. I wasn't even looking
at the jersey, was like, oh, that can't be. And
I look at it, go holy cow. What is he
doing differently this time that is better? Is it just
that he's not against an incumbent or is there is
he doing something differently that is more that it is
(23:27):
working his benefit?
Speaker 3 (23:29):
Well, I think some of it, as much as I
want to give him credit, is doing some things better.
Some of it's just environmental. At this point, you've had
eight years of Phil Murphy. He's relatively unpopular in most polling.
We didn't pull him in this survey. I'm kind of
having regret about that because many surveys are coming back
(23:50):
showing him with actually a worse net approval rating than
governor than President Trump in New Jersey, which again is
kind of remarkable when you think about the state that
we're talking about. This is a state that hasn't voted
Republican for president since nineteen eighty eight. But now you've
got someone who is running on Phil Murphy's record. She's
(24:10):
not interested in changing anything. We kind of got a
Kamala ask answer from her when she was asked what
she wanted to do. Differently, I think she gave Phil
Murphy a B plus when asked at one of the
Democrat debates for what rating she would give him.
Speaker 2 (24:26):
I think people so Obama gave himself.
Speaker 1 (24:28):
Do you remember that Obama was like, I'm a solid
B plus president, a.
Speaker 3 (24:33):
Solid B plus president.
Speaker 2 (24:34):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (24:37):
Though, in fairness, when my wife has asked me, I've
said I'm a solid B plus husband. I've kind of
recycled that answer on occasion.
Speaker 1 (24:45):
What is going so what is very unused? It's not
New Jersey is not alone in this, but New Jersey
does the best. I'd give New Jersey a big piece
of credit. Besides the way you don't have to pump
your own gas, which is a great thing New.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
Jersey now Oregon thru in the town quick.
Speaker 1 (25:03):
I know what is what is great about New Jersey
is you do solid monthly reporting on voting data. Unlike
New York and California and other places which take forever,
New Jersey is one of the blue states that does it.
Speaker 2 (25:14):
Every month.
Speaker 1 (25:15):
They show you how many new registered Republicans and Democrats
county wide, congressional district, state Assembly district. New Jersey went
from having one point one million Democrats advantage at one
point one million Democratic advantage in twenty twenty to have
an eight hundred and fifty thousand. Now Republicans have netted
two hundred thousand votes between what Democrats have lost more
(25:35):
Republicans have gained. And it's been fairly organic. There is
not really a Jersey Republican machine. It's not flawd, you
know what I mean, not as close what is going on.
And by the way, and that was during COVID when
a lot of Republicans were leaving Jersey for the for
you know, a free year state.
Speaker 2 (25:54):
So what was what is.
Speaker 1 (25:56):
Going on on the ground in a place like New Jersey,
which are getting either independence or Democrats or just eighteen
year olds to register Republican.
Speaker 3 (26:04):
Yeah, it's a very good point. It's one I've made
to many friends outside in New Jersey in recent weeks.
Scott Presler or Cliff Maloney, these famous Republican ballot chasers.
They're here now, but they've only been here for months,
not for years. Jack Chitdarelli came within three points in
twenty one. Trump came under six points in twenty twenty
(26:26):
four with no infrastructure. And I think the simple answer
is twofold one. As I was talking about before, we've
seen a preview of where the left is going nationally
for a while now, and we don't love it. I
always like to say a little crass. I apologize, but
it doesn't matter who gets to pee in which bathroom.
(26:46):
If no one can afford to live here, their priorities
are whacked out. And with our utility bills jumping, highest
property taxes in the nation, I think perhaps here there's
fatigue with that messaging. First. Also, so we're a very
diverse state relative to a lot of the other states
in the Union, and certainly some of the purple and
red states, like in Ohio, we have a lot of
(27:08):
Hispanic voters. Here, there's a lot of blackmail voters. There's
a lot of young New Jerseyans that don't necessarily vote
the same way as their parents or their grandparents. So
for the longest time, these kind of woke, affluent suburbs
in places like Morris County have helped Democrats remain strong here.
But if all of a sudden, a Republican like Jack
(27:28):
Schittarelli starts getting thirty percent of the urban vote, because
these voters don't recognize their values, of their priorities in
what they're hearing from someone like Mikey Cheryl, they're not
just in trouble, they're arguably doomed. We used to hear
when you and I were a little younger, demographics or
destiny for an argument as to why Republicans were eventually
going to go the way of the dinosaur. That's now
(27:50):
completely flipped, and you may be seeing it most acutely
here in New Jersey.
Speaker 1 (27:55):
Yeah, Mikey Cheryl was really bad in the Democratic prime
already in the urban vote the urban Democrat minority Democrats
specifically did not want her.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
She lives, I.
Speaker 1 (28:05):
Think in a community where I think the averaging comes
one hundred and sixty thousand dollars per person. It's an
incredibly white area.
Speaker 3 (28:12):
They don't go to church Chamont Clair. They go to
Drag Queen's Story Houry their secular ritual. Yeah, and it's
it illustrates very much Ryan Like, that's the bubble that
she occupies, and I think everyone outside of that bubble
in New Jersey is starting to wake up.
Speaker 1 (28:30):
What does it say that two Democratic mayors now have
endorsed her and there was allegedly and I know you
guys talked about it on Save Jersey. The meeting with
Nick Saiko is how you pronounce the last name Nick Jacho? Oh, yeah,
there was a meeting.
Speaker 3 (28:44):
Boss.
Speaker 2 (28:45):
He's denying it, but there was a meeting.
Speaker 1 (28:47):
He does not like, uh, the Union City Democratic mayor
who loves Cheryl.
Speaker 2 (28:53):
What does it say that.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
Some Democratic mayors are willing to throw their hat in
behind Chitdarelli.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
Well, I mean all the way back to the beginning
name of our convo of twenty thirteen, even two thousand
and nine, when Chris Christie was coming on strong. That's
what you began to see all across New Jersey. The
Democrat bosses began to split from the progressive base because
at the end of the day, these guys, they don't
really believe in anything. They're transactional, so in order to
(29:20):
main control of the street, they don't want to go
in a complete opposite direction of it. So if they're
hearing as we're hearing, and we're seeing in certain data,
including an air poll, that black voters, Hispanic voters are saying,
you know, we're not picking up what Mikey Cheryl's putting down.
I wouldn't be surprised if you see a few more
Democrat mayors before the end of this cycle say you
(29:44):
know what we're gonna We're gonna make a deal with Jack.
We're going to join up with the Republicans at least
this time around, in signal our independence. And that's particularly
bad news for her because, let's face it, we have
to pull Republicans out of the House to get him
to vote early. Right, it's getting a little bit easier,
but it's still not hard. These old krusty again, they
(30:04):
look like extras from the sopranos party bosses up north.
They know how to get it done. They go door
to door, They've got lists. She can't win without them.
Speaker 1 (30:13):
Right, The Democratic Party machine is no joke, especially in
the case of Sacho in that city. Now peddling back
from the there's not just the governor's race, which is
obviously the most important and the most paid attention to,
especially with all this momentum hind Shittarelli. The legislature is
up for a vote, and Republicans made in men's gains
(30:34):
I think four years ago, and then they lost their
gains two years ago in the state House. Now they
have it up again. Is there any chance for Republicans
to gain the state legislature this time?
Speaker 3 (30:45):
Yeah, there is, and you know significantly enough, Chitdarelli. Even
though we lost by three points last time, to your point,
had those tremendous cottails in twenty twenty one, we picked
up a bunch of seats in South Jersey. I think
we could do it again. I'll give you one very
clear example, the third Legislative District, which is deep South Jersey,
(31:05):
so deep that you actually will get a Southern accent occasionally.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
I don't know. I don't know about that one mat
you look.
Speaker 3 (31:13):
Next time you visit. We have a rodeo. It's called
the Cowtown Rodeo in LD three, and I took a
friend there from Montanda and he said it was legitimate.
So okay, I will make I'll make a believer of you.
That's a seven point five percent Trump district. It's currently
represented by an entirely Democrat legislative delegation. So if Jack
(31:35):
wins by what he should, I think you could see
Republicans pick up anywhere between a few seats to as
many as nine or even ten seats in the Assembly. Unfortunately,
the state Senate's not up this year. They won't be
on the bout again n till twenty seven. That may
be one of the only silver linings for Democrats right now,
because it might stave off a potentially larger catastrophe if
(31:58):
Jack really does run up the numbers. So I would.
I'll tell you this much. If you're listening to Ryan's
podcast and you want a viewer guide for election night,
New Jersey two counties in particular, you got to keep
your eye on Bergen and Gloucester. Gloucester has pieces of
three which I just mentioned in four, which I want
(32:19):
to say, is like a Harris plus one or two
district baked into it.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
As South Jersey for those who don't know. But Gloucester's
in South Jersey.
Speaker 3 (32:27):
It's in South Jersey, not far from Philly. It's traditionally
been a purple county, but it's moving to the right.
I think Jack wanted by like ten points last time,
so watch that also Bergen. Bergen got pretty blue because
of the suburban shift in the early part of the
Trump error, but it is now swinging back. Trump actually
(32:48):
performed pretty strongly there in twenty twenty four. This is
the most populous county in New Jersey, classic New York suburbs.
Watch that county. If Jack is closer wins Bergen County
on election night, he's going to succeed. And there are
maybe about four Assembly seats that he can win in
that county alone, thirty eight and thirty six.
Speaker 1 (33:10):
You know, Matt is not in your writing anyway, though.
This is the first time I ever spoken. You are
not an optimist, so you are coming off this is
a this you are I feel like you feel like
there's a lot going in favor of the Republicans right now.
Speaker 2 (33:22):
In New Jersey.
Speaker 3 (33:24):
What I always like to say, my friend is I'm
a hyperrealist, right we if you are working in a
state like New Jersey, you have to proceed sometimes in
the absence of hope because we don't.
Speaker 2 (33:37):
Right, I understand, I relate completely. I'm from New York.
I get it.
Speaker 3 (33:40):
Yeah, you get It's one of the reasons we get
along famously now because it's we have a similar mindset,
similar worldview. At look, at the end of the day,
I am optimistic this year because of what I can
see with my eyes. Disregard the glasses for a second,
because I can see well enough with them. This Trump
coalition that came together over the course of nearly a decade. Now,
(34:02):
the fear has been that it's only going to stand
with the President, that it's not going to translate to
anyone else. What we suspect we're seeing here in New Jersey,
and we've got a lot of evidence to back it up,
is that no, it is something that is part of
a sustainable realignment. Now, of course, it's up to Republican
candidates to make sure they continue to earn those votes.
(34:23):
It's not something that's a birthright that's going to get
handed down as a matter of right. But Jack has
hit the right notes. Republicans this year running strong in
New Jersey, and there's all the evidence that they are
going to put some semblance of that Trump coalition together
this November. And as I'm always telling my friends in Pennsylvania,
New York, everywhere else, if New Jersey's purple, some of
(34:44):
these other purple states are never going to be anything
but read.
Speaker 1 (34:46):
Again, Well, the slogan people are saying is Pennsylvania is
the new Ohio and New Jersey is in New Pennsylvania.
My last question is one of the Trump so looking
at twenty twenty four, did significantly better than Trump in
western New Jersey, in southern New Jersey and in like
more of the affluent suburbs. Trump did much better among
(35:09):
minorities and among the Orthodox Jewish. But there's a large
Orthodox Jewish vote in Lakewood, New Jersey. Lakewood has a
Democratic state House member, even though it is a super
Republican area, because he's an Orthodox Jew. Do Republicans have
a chance both at winning back that state House seat?
And two, how are the Orthodox Jews because they split
their vote last time? Even though that Chitarelly won it
(35:30):
they were not as I think Trump won the Orthodox
Jews by like plus seventy seven and Chittle went like
plus thirty. Is it more that's a big population. Is
there more of a chance of Chitarelly getting some support
from them?
Speaker 3 (35:44):
Oh, it's it's massive. I think the next time we
draw the districts, they're probably going to have their own
legislative district, which is really it's really remarkable. I think
there's a good chance that Jack is going to get them.
Phil Murphy, for as much as I like to make
fun of the guy and criticize the guy, because he
deserves every little bit of it, he's a shrewd politician.
(36:05):
Nobody would accuse him of being stupid. He cut the
r ideals and the leaders of that particular community. Again,
like many bosses in New Jersey politics tend to be transactional.
Part of the reason why there's now a Democrat there
is not because the guy is super far left. It's
because they couldn't break in and get their own Republican seats.
They decided to make a deal with somebody that would
(36:27):
give them one. So the way you win out there
is by not trying to win the Republican primary, it's
by becoming a Democrat. But I think Jack is going
to do very well. And I think that we could
get to a point on election night Ryan where if
he really does run away with this thing and opens
it up, and by New Jersey standards, that would be
Jack winning by a few points statewide reflected down ballot
(36:51):
a red place like Ocean County, the margin might just
get so wide that some wacky things start to happen,
including a Republican regaining his seat eat when otherwise, because
of all the deals have been made down ballot, you
might not really have a chance of recapturing that lake
would seed well.
Speaker 1 (37:08):
And I also think because they want it in twenty
twenty three, when turnout was much lower, but except for
the Jewish community to turnout.
Speaker 2 (37:15):
Was very very high.
Speaker 1 (37:16):
So I'm hopeful that because you know, Joe Shmo, who
doesn't usually vote, goes to vote for Jack down all
Republican and they'll win that seat. I'm curious about it.
Where can people go to read more of the Great
Matt Rooney and all things New Jersey.
Speaker 3 (37:29):
The Great Matt Runey I did not pay him to
say that, so you can check me out on X
of course Matt Rooney and Jay and then of course
you can visit Savejersey dot com. That's where I post
all my rantings and ramblings. And obviously we're going to
continue to analyze the data and provide plenty of commentary
now through November. It's going to be exciting. That's the
(37:51):
one thing we can guarantee. And if it goes the
way that I really do believe it can go, here Ryan,
stay tuned, don't tune turn away or tune now after
overb fourth because if New Jersey has an America first governor,
can you imagine the leftists freak out?
Speaker 1 (38:06):
Well if New Jersey, I mean Trump lost New Jersey
by about six If New Jersey is a swing state,
I mean the whole country changes. I mean, it really
does change. And of all the states aside from like
when was the last time like a true blue state
became a swing state. I mean a lot of swing
(38:26):
states have become red states, and a few red states
have become blues dates, but I the last like true
blue red state is hard to think of that became
a I mean you have to go back to the nineties,
I think.
Speaker 2 (38:38):
So it's a big big, big change, a big deal.
Speaker 3 (38:40):
It's a big deal, and it's also a huge deal
for the mid terms. I keep reminding every one of
their history before New Gingridge's Republican Revolution, it was preceded
in ninety three by a victory in New Jersey, the
Tea Party Revolution to twenty ten, two thousand and ninety
year before Chris Christie upset John resign and flip New Jersey.
(39:02):
So it's not just about the larger picture, it's also
about two thousand and twenty six. If the Republicans are
successful in my home state this year, this whole blue
wave backlash against the tyrant Trump narrative they're trying to
run with it evaporates.
Speaker 2 (39:19):
Well, Matt, thanks coming on this podcast. I appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (39:22):
Thanks for having me, sir.
Speaker 1 (39:23):
Hey, we'll be right back after this. Now it's time
to Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to be
part of the Ask Me Anything segment, please email me
Ryan at Numbers Gamepodcast dot com. That's Ryan at Numbers Plural,
Numbers Game Podcast dot com. I love via emails.
Speaker 2 (39:40):
I get them all.
Speaker 1 (39:41):
I've been reading a lot about my mom's interview about
the nine to eleven surviving the nine to eleven. I'm
going to pass them along to her. Such nice comments,
I genuinely appreciate it. But if you have any show
ideas or questions you want me to answer on the show,
I'm here for it.
Speaker 2 (39:55):
I'm down for it. Okay, first question, Hey Ryan, my
name is Robbi.
Speaker 1 (39:59):
I've actually bumped into you a few times about a
decade and a half ago, back in New York. I
live in northeastern Pennsylvania. It's hell, sorry, Robby. I like
Northeast in Pennsylvania, but I've never lived there. I've was
inspired to get involved in my first campaign in twenty
twenty four for Trump and a few other candidates. My
(40:19):
top issue is immigration, immigration, immigration, crime, and inflation. I've
been avid follower for fifteen years and listen to you everywhere.
I'm excited about your video for the podcast. Is there
any chance that you can make ask me anything into
a sort of two way? No, because I don't tape
at the same time every week, so i'd have to
(40:39):
make sure that everyone knew what time I was taping.
It's not a fixed thing. I don't know the technology either.
It would just be very, very difficult. I'll probably just
read your answers and maybe publish like a little snippet.
Speaker 2 (40:51):
But I'm not gonna.
Speaker 1 (40:52):
I can't do that. It's just the technology has passed
me and my schedule is too crazy. I'm actually not
paid to be Ryan Gradusky. I don't just do personality
stuff I do. I have a company and I work,
so it's very difficult. I have to work around guest time.
It's just that's a little impossible for me right now.
Maybe if the show really takes off and all I
do is the show, that we can make that happen,
but it's not capable right now. My reason for this
(41:14):
emails if you could do an episode or two in
political violence. I think I did one. You probably send
it before this the podcast and bring on an colter
to share her own past experiences and has been my
number one favorite for many years. And maybe you two
could do a podcast and then a little tour together.
I would love to have another episode with ann On.
I have to reach out to her. This is a
(41:35):
great idea. I think we could really speak to like
left wing violence. I had ann on the very beginning
of the show, on like the first episode, as far
as like a live event. It's my that's my big ambition.
One day you do a live event with this podcast.
I just need to boost the numbers up to make
sure that people will show up. And I'm not speaking
to an empty room, not like I'm not doing that
right now, but to have people to listen to me.
(41:59):
So tell your friends and family and like and subscribe
to this podcast, and maybe that will happen. But thank you, Robbie. Okay,
last question for this episode. Hi, Ryan, I just listened
to your nine to eleven episode.
Speaker 2 (42:10):
Your mom.
Speaker 1 (42:10):
Thank you for sharing her story. Nine to eleven becomes more
abstract even from any of us, so it was good
to hear a personal perspective. Thank you for that comment.
By the way, this reader's name is Stephanie. Thank you, Stephanie.
I love your podcast. I learn a lot each episode.
Thank you for bringing data. I would be interested in
data about interracial marriage. In what parts of the country
is interracial marriage rate highest lowest, How does it differ
(42:33):
across so so economic classes, how does it differ across races,
which immigrant groups are more or less likely to marry
outside their race? And has a gun up or down?
Since BLM, Stephanie, that is a great question that I've
never really thought about before.
Speaker 2 (42:46):
Let me, I did crunch some data, so let me
get it for you.
Speaker 1 (42:50):
It's a little difficult to answer because Latinos, for example.
Speaker 2 (42:55):
Or Arabs are not a race. They are an ethnic group, so.
Speaker 1 (43:00):
They it's not a perfect way did I decipher this?
It's kind of a little a little messy. And marriage
data is not like birth data, where we publish it
constantly in the CDC or in the Yeah, in the
CDC every year, and the scale of what is considered
(43:21):
a white person changes pretty dramatically with over time. Like
you know, one hundred years ago, Italians and Irish weren't
classified as white and now Armenians and Georgians are. So
working with what I had at my availability, the number
one group I actually did not know. I didn't know this,
but I didn't. I didn't put this in my head
(43:41):
for some reason. This comes from twenty fifteen's Pew Research data,
so it's a little dated. But the number one group
for interracial marriage, and it is by far the highest,
is actually Asians. Asian Americans. Forty six percent of all
Asian Americans who are born in the US married out
side their race. It is wide scale. The farthest highest.
(44:03):
The second would be Latinos. Latinos are at twenty seven percent,
so which is very high, one in four, with forty
percent of those being Hispanics who marry whites. Anyway, that
is the that's the number one, and number two it's
Asians and then Hispanics. And you asked about immigrant group, obviously,
then it's Asian because Asians have our fairly new immigrant
(44:26):
group in the long history of our country, and by
the second generation, a lot of them marry outside of
their race, of Asian women being the highest among all
groups at thirty seven percent of all Asian women. Among
Asian women born in america's over fifty percent. As far
as which area it is in the West that the
(44:46):
state that is the number one interracial marriage is actually Hawaii,
something else I did not know, and they said overall
the West Coast has the highest map when it comes
to socioeconomic class. I would guess, and this is a
guest because the data didn't say this, but if it's
Asian Americans who have the highest level of college degree holders,
it's probably higher income people with higher college degree levels.
(45:11):
Once again, that's a guest, but that is probably which
one it is, and as far as going up or down,
the data is all pre BLMS, so I don't have
any new data to give to you. It's not like
the government reports every year along with other information. So
that's that's the info, Stephanie. On interracial marriage. I hope
you found interesting. I found interesting researching it, even there
(45:33):
are questions that I don't I'm not super passionate about.
I find interesting doing this research. So that's a great question, Stepanie.
Thank you for sending it to me. I appreciate you listening,
and I appreciate you all listening. If you like this podcast,
please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
wherever you get your podcasts, and I will talk to
you guys on Thursday
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