In this episode, Ryan Girdusky breaks down the numbers behind the upcoming elections, highlighting the critical role of local voting and campaign dynamics in Virginia and New Jersey. He explores how birth data trends and declining birth rates are shaping future demographics, political representation, and electoral strategy. It's a Numbers Game is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Monday & Thursday.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Gerdusky. Today
is Thursday, October ninth, twenty twenty five. It is twenty
five days till the twenty twenty five election local elections
across the country. Make a plan and get out and vote.
Vote by mail, vote early in person, or vote on
election day. Make a plan, just and make sure you vote.
Local elections matter. Everything from school board to governor is
(00:27):
up in different places across the country. So find out
what's on the ballot in your area. Go to the
Secretary of State website or your local county website and
figure it out and make the game plan. It is
really important to have informed, active voters. Okay, I know
that this podcast has been very heavy on campaigns lately.
(00:47):
I come from a campaign background. I'm sure a lot
of other people are kind of getting sick of it
and it gets grading after a while. Not everyone is
like me who lives and eats and breathes campaigns. So
I think next Thursday, I'm going to do a politics
free episode where I will do another issue. I don't
know what it is yet, I'll know it by Monday,
but maybe I'll just do book reviews or something about
(01:11):
true crime or something I'm interested in, something that is
not related to campaign specific I will give my listener
a one day break before we go fall on into
the election, and if you have a topic, by the
way that you want me to research and cover, please
email me ryanat Numbers gamepodcast dot com and throw what
you like to hear about this non political episode. I'm
(01:31):
really leaving up to the audience and letting them decide
what I talk about. I think this would be really
interesting and a nice break from people who just want
to take a breather between all the conversations about the
elections coming up. So for today's episode, I have a
little bit of interesting data coming up with the campaigns
and the elections in our important states We're not just important,
(01:53):
but the ones that are the most high profile, as
well as some non political stuff related to birth data
that I think you'd find really interesting. So first, let's
go on the campaigns, because we're already talking about it.
I heard from a good friend of mine who is
on a statewide race in Virginia that internal polls have
Republican incumbent Attorney General Jason Miarrez in a statistical tie
(02:15):
with Democrat James Jay Jones. Now Jay Jones once again
is the Democrat who made the comment that he wants
to see his colleagues being shot in the head and
having or he would shoot them in the head rather,
and that he wants to see their children being murdered.
This poll was taken on the cusp of those comments.
So since those comments, I imagine he's going to see
(02:36):
a two or three point bump and we could very
well see Miaras in the mix. As far as leading
in the polls, Donald Trump just recently endorsed him. Now,
early voting continues to climb in that state, as well
as all their states. Virginia has forty five days of
early voting, which in my opinion, is too much, and
over four hundred thousand people so far have voted like shit.
(02:59):
Analysis experts estimate that about fifty two percent of registered
Virginians should be expected to vote in this election. That's
down from fifty five percent in twenty twenty one. Overall,
that means, if that's true, that means that between three
point one to three point two million people will be
expected to show up. That means that twelve point five percent,
(03:22):
or one in eight voters already have cast their ballot
lots of for grabs, but what mer is and what
the Republicans running in both lieutenant governor and governor and
all across the state as far as state legislators wanted
to go. Whether which should be trying to do right
now is not only convince moderates and independence to cast
(03:43):
ballots for them, but there are hundreds of thousands of
people who are low propensity voters who don't show up
in every election and convincing them to show up in
this election. Remember Donald Trump received two point zero seven
five million votes in twenty twenty four and Young Can
received one point sixty six million. That's the difference of
four hundred and ten thousand people who vote Republican when
(04:08):
it's convenient for president or when they excited for president
but don't tend to show up in these elections, these
local elections. Four hundred and ten thousand people is a lot.
It's make or break, So really increasing attention towards these
races in the last few days may make the difference
between winning and losing. Miarez has a lot going for
(04:29):
him right now. There is a reporter named Nick Minneck.
He is a reporter for w JLA over in Washington.
A pretty nonpartisan guy from everything I've ever seen from him,
and he says that Jay Jones is in crisis mode
in that election. He said he's on the phone with
Democrat elected officials asking them not to drop their support
(04:49):
for him. The Fraternal Order of Virginia Police came out
with a letter over the week saying that he was
unfit to hold for office, and he was. Jay Jones
was forced to cancel two fundraisers, including one with Senator
Tim King, because he was afraid of being asked questions
about his comments and his text messages. This all comes,
(05:11):
by the way, as the embattled Democrat is facing another controversy.
The Republican who he was texting with came out and
said that Jones had told her that he believed some
police needed to die in order to stop them from
killing people. He allegedly made these comments in twenty twenty eight,
at the height of the Floyd riots. I would love
(05:34):
to see what Jay Jones had to sit there and
text the day Charlie Kirk was assassinated. That would probably
be very eye opening. Ason Mire is the Republican incumbent.
His campaign is dropping an unbelievable one point five million
dollars in the closing weeks on a commercial and about
the text messages that Jones sent. The Club for Growth,
(05:54):
which is a major Republican has a major Republican pack
and millions of millions of dollars in their arsenal. They
are also unveiling a brutal new ad with tagging that
Jones is dressed up in a soup but should be
in a straight jacket. I am unaware how much money
they're putting behind it, but the Club really doesn't do
(06:15):
anything in small doses. They're kind of a major They
you know, a lot of a lot of firepower in
their canon. So I imagine if they're doing an ad
and they're taking out such a brutal ad, that they
are going to be spending a lot of money getting
it out there. Republicans. It's very clear that they think
Jason has Jason Miars has the chance to pull out
(06:38):
an election victory, and he might be the only one
statewide in Virginia who can. But it is something that
they are all doubling and tripling down on, from Donald
Trump to the Club for Growth to his own internal
campaign and j Jones is absolutely got is on his
back heels. We'll see how that shakes up in the
last twenty five days to the election, but it's very
(06:59):
clear a whare the energy is moving and if we'll
probably get a public poll I imagine soon. Washington Post
usually only releases one poll before the election, and they
adjusted it before the scandal broke. Maybe they'll do a
second one. Remember, polls are very, very expensive, so I
don't know. Maybe let's sit there, it's too much news
(07:21):
not to do what you would think. But we'll hopefully
get maybe some public polls next week about where the
state of the Virginia elections are and if anything changed
with Jay Jones's text messages. I genuinely hope for the
sake of our country that they did and that someone
who fantasizes about killing children does not hold elected office
in this country. Okay, now I want to focus on
(07:44):
New Jersey for a second. Republican Jack Chitarelli picked up
some important endorsements from two Democrats in Hudson County, New Jersey.
They are local elected officials in Hudson County. It's also
rumored that by the New Jersey Globe that the chairman
of the Hudson County Democratic Party is preparing to endorse Chittarelli.
This is a pretty big surprise. Hudson County is a
(08:05):
plurality Hispanic county that has voted for Democrat every presidential
election since nineteen eighty four, and where Jack Chiarelli only
received twenty five percent of the vote last time. Well,
obviously it's that wouldn't that would give permission for Democrats
to support basically any Democrat because it's such a democratic area,
(08:26):
They're not going to be held accountable by voters in
such a blue area. But like most places with large
Hispanic populations, it saw a right wing shift. The district
was eight points right from twenty seventeen to twenty twenty
one in the governor's election, and sixteen points to the
right between twenty twenty and twenty twenty four. Trump received
(08:47):
twice as many votes that in twenty twenty four as
Jack Charelli did in twenty twenty one. Who knows that
these people are going to be stay Republican or if
they're going to be animated to vote in a govern
election that's not a presidential election. If they're all just
low propensity voters, there's a lot of a lot of
(09:07):
this comes out of internal party politics of who hates
who and who doesn't like the Democrat Mickey Cheryl and
who doesn't like who's supported her. Part of this is
elected Democrats feeling the ability to be more for lack
of a better term, liberal in their decision making when
(09:28):
it comes to who to pick from, because normally you
would say, oh, I'm going to lose everything if I
endorse the Republican. They're probably only doing this if they
feel like the Republican might win. Now, it's still solid
Democratic county in a state that leans Democratic, but party
but the party has some reason to be concerned. There
(09:50):
are internal polls showing that Mikey Cheryl is with only
three point lead against Jack Chidarelli. This is from a
new report from Axios. What's interesting about that is that
Democratic commentators have been saying publicly, don't worry, we are fine.
We have these Fox News polls that are showing that
(10:10):
Mikey Cheryl's up by eight points. It's still New Jersey.
New Jersey is still a blue state. Quietly, they've been
dumping twenty five million dollars into this race from packs
to try to sit there and brand that Jack Ciarelli
is just like Trump, so if you hate Trump, you
have to vote against Jack Ciarelli. Democrats have been saying
this is not a five alarm fire, but it's clearly
(10:31):
not a cake walk. It's somewhere in between. Democrats still
hold an election turnout advantage. So far, New Jersey's voter
turnout has had a Democrat advantage of seventy five thousand.
They're all mail in votes because the early in person
voting has not yet begun in New Jersey, so that
should tighten. But Democrats are really trying to build this
(10:52):
massive early vote lead from mail in ballads in case
they get swamped on election day. Republicans are returning ballots
at a slightly larger pace than they were in twenty twenty,
but a lot of people are there's more Democrats asking
for these ballots. In twenty twenty one, one hundred and
sixty thousand people requested ballots. In twenty twenty five, about
(11:17):
two hundred thousand people have requested ballots, and Democrats just
hold a larger lead in the physical number of ballots
they have returned. They're really animated to get these lower
propensalty people to vote by mail, and Republicans are still
skittish about voting by mail, so Democrats are looking to
take advantage where they have the opportunity, basically using Republican
(11:38):
skiittishness on mail in ballots to get as many older
people or lower pensity people to sit there and show up.
The same thing is happening, by the way, in Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania's not a race that a lot of people are covering,
but is a Supreme Court race. This will matter heavily
when Pennsylvania Supreme Court is a majority Democrats a statewide
(12:01):
elected position. This will matter intensely when they go into
the twenty thirty two redistricting map because the Democrat Pennsylvania
Supreme Court is not going to rule any map that
favors a Republican even if you know we have a
Republican governor and Republican legislature. They're not going to go
with any map that overly favors Republicans. And Pennsylvania has
(12:22):
slated toulu Is one congressional seat next year, so there's
a lot on the line right now. Democrats have requested
six hundred and thirty one thousand, that's while Republicans have
only requested two hundred and thirty five thousand. Pennsylvania has
no early voting aside from mail and balloting, so this
is intensely important. Democrats like to build this idea that
(12:44):
there's this firewall that they have built from early ballot voting.
Because here's the thing, my people who only wait till
election day. If you are a person who's never missed
an election, you're probably not going to miss this election. Now,
if you're the average Joe Schmoe, who cares. They they
maybe listen to, you know, conservative talk radio, but they're busy,
(13:04):
They got kids, they have a job, they have a
social life. They sleep in that day, they have to
cook dinner, or they're surraining outside, they don't feel like
doing it, the weather's bad or what. Everyone makes excuses
of why they can and cannot show up on election day.
And for people who've only voted in one of the
four or zero of the four last elections, or even
two of the last four elections, it is intensely important
(13:27):
to try to get those people out early because those
are the ones who always make excuses. You know these
kinds of people in your life, I have them. You
know those people who will be like, oh, I'm gonna
cook for a fourth of July. I'm gonna come over
and bring over all the hamburgers and then they're an
hour and a half late like that and they only
have like three bunths. That is the kind of person
who you need to sit there and make sure that
(13:47):
they show up to vote, because if there's an excuse
why they can't show why they can be late, they're
gonna find the excuse. We all have that people in
our life. Someone listen this podcast, maybe you are that
person in that case, figure out a to go vote early.
I'm just going to touch on one other race, So
Pennsylvania rounding up. Democrats definitely have been building up this lead.
(14:08):
It's not as large as it was the last time
they had a Supreme Court race, which was another odd year,
but it is much larger percentage wise than during the
presidential election when Trump where Republicans really did start two
Republicans credit. In the twenty twenty four election, Republicans in Pennsylvania,
especially at the end, really ramped up mail in voting.
They were turning those suckers in at a very very
(14:30):
fast rate. Last race I want to just touch on
because I want to cover all the big ones that
you guys could be updated, and that is the New
York City mayor's race. Social Zora Mandani is still has
a healthy double digit lead, about like twelve or thirteen
percent in most private and public polling I have seen.
He's not going to hit fifty percent. But there is
(14:51):
this conflict. Is that Curtis Leewaugh, who's the Republican nominee,
someone I've met many times over the years, doesn't have
a snowballs chance in hell of winning. His advisors are
telling him that he does. Andrew Cuomo is running one
of the worst campaigns I've ever seen in my life,
where he should be reaching out to Republicans in New
York and he's not doing any of that. He should
(15:11):
be telling to Republicans in New York. Remember, I was
once a moderate governor, and I will govern for all
New Yorkers, whether you are a Republican or not. I
don't know if it's his advisors, I don't know if
Cuomo just really doesn't care about Republicans. I actually found
out with this is the most interesting thing. I have
a friend who is I mean, this is a fire
breathing Republican someone younger than me and randomly brings up
(15:35):
that he is, you know, Andrew Cuomo's first cousin. I
was like what, I was like, how are you related
to this person? I mean, I guess that's true in
all families, but I don't. He can't have this absolute
hatred I think for Republicans, you know, considering that family
members close to him are, you know, our Republican clearly.
(15:55):
I just think that he is trying to appease the
most act out parts of the base. And he's the
same guy who said if you are pro life, you
don't belong in New York State. So enough of those
comments have, I think, really caught up to him, and
this is the time where he should be saying too Republicans,
to Republican Party bosses, to Republican Party voters, Hey, if
(16:17):
you support me, I will the Democrats and the unions
that he essentially has a lot of sway with and
would if he was a mayor, support all the Republican
incumbents in New York City for City Council and for
State Assembly and for State Senate. That's a lot that
would do so much for Republicans if he just even
(16:40):
gave that little breadcrumb, but I don't know what he's doing.
I think this is one of the worst campaigns I've
ever seen in my life and courteously should have drop
that a long time ago. Okay, that's my political roundup
for this episode. I will cover politics probably on Monday,
especially if the Supreme Court decides on Section two eighty
eight the Voting Rights Act. I'll give you probably a
(17:01):
brief update about it, and then Thursday we'll do a
non political episode. I have a non political issue that
I want to bring up on this episode, and it
is about birth data trends and I think it's fascinating
and you will too, so stay tuned next. So, the
CDC is the official authority on data relating to births
(17:22):
and deaths. The Census usually puts out its own estimates,
and the media loves to talk about the Census estimates,
but the Census estimates are not the ones the government uses.
It's the CDC and CDC Wonder, which is their website.
They have a preliminary monthly numbers before the final estimation
is given out and the final aust mission comes out
usually eighteen months after the year's over. Because they do
(17:45):
all the calculations and we wait for the official estimate,
obviously official numbers, and that will be released for twenty
twenty five, sometimes in late twenty twenty six or early
twenty twenty seven. On October first, they put out their
estimates for the year of twenty twenty five from January
to August, and there's some interesting data that tells a
bigger story about our country and where we're going. First,
(18:08):
let's look at the top line numbers. From January to
August twenty twenty five, there were a little less than
two point four million babies born in this country. That's
down about a half a percentage point from the year prior.
And they don't break down babies born by the race
of the child. They break it down by the race
of the mother. Forty nine point seven to six percent
of all babies born from the from January to August
(18:31):
were had white mothers, twenty six point seven seven had
Hispanic mothers, twelve point six had Black mothers, six percent
had Asian mothers, and the rest were either a multi
racial American, Indian, Pacific Islander, or other. The decline infertility
rates in the birth rates in the last during this
(18:51):
year is not equal among all racial groups. Specifically, two
groups have seen a noticeable drop in fertility, one being
non Hispanic blacks and the second being foreigners, people whose
women born in another country, specifically women from high populations
of illegal immigrants, soies, so women who come from countries
(19:14):
with large illegal alien populations. In the United States, let's
start with the non Hispanic black number. It is a
strange phenomenon that happened sometime in the mid to late
two thousands, and it's that the black birth rate has
been just steadily declining to the point of collapsing in
(19:35):
some parts of this country. The black female birth rate
in twenty twenty four, for the first time in a
very long time, was actually lower than whites, and at
the rate that has declined this year, twenty twenty five
will have a larger gap in the white fertility rate,
the non Hispanic white fertility rate versus the black fertility rate.
This has started. This general decline has started for a
(19:57):
bit of time. It started in the ninety when there
was a real effort presented by both the federal government
as well as the local and state to one do
welfare reform and the second only to stop to provide
basically protection, so there was less teen births. The teen
birth rate from the nineties has it's gone down like
(20:19):
well over ninety five ninety eight percent of teen births.
Teen births just don't happen, not nearly like they used to.
But the birth rate for non Hispanic Black women remained
around the same from the late nineties into the late
two thousands and then just nose dives and it's fallen
(20:40):
three point six percent this year alone. Now a lot
of conservative commentators immediately bring up abortion. They say, well,
access to abortion is what's killing black babies in the womb.
That is partially true. But states with very strict abortion
laws even abortion bands, don't have a significantly higher Black
for ten rate with states with very little to no
(21:02):
abortion bands. So states like Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida,
they all have very strict abortion laws, they have a
birth rate well below replacement and pretty much equal to
places like Colorado, Delaware, Ohio, and Michigan. There's not been
a single sociological examination of that this is happening. I
(21:26):
doubt that even sociologists have realized how much this is happening.
I guarantee. A lot of other people aren't even talking
about this right now, but around the twenty tens, there
was a dramatic increase in the number of Black women
attending college. Remember when women attend college, especially in a
master's degree or a PhD program, they put child rearing
(21:46):
well into their late thirties or early forties, or just
give up on it altogether, and they have fewer children
than they would have had they didn't pursue a doctorate
or a master's. There was about eleven percent of black
women had a bachelor's degree in nineteen ninety. That was
up to twenty six percent and twenty twenty three. So
college as part of it, as well as the declining
number of teen pregnancies, and then a third part of
(22:08):
it is the cost of living. States like New York,
New Jersey, California, Connecticut, they have a fertility level of
Black women that is heading towards about one child per woman,
which is that means the population will have over the
course of the next twenty to twenty five years as
older generations pass away and younger generations are significantly smaller.
(22:31):
This is the problem you're seeing like in Japan and
in South Korea and in Italy and Poland, is that
the generations are literally half of what they were just
twenty years ago, and they're continuing to decline because people
are not having enough babies. What that sits there and
says to me specifically, given that these birth rates come
(22:52):
out of big blue states where the populations are not
having a lot of children, is that you're going to
see the Democrats increasingly dependent on immigrants to make up
the declining population in the states from the Americans who
are not having children today. Right, And I want to
go over the whole idea of policies affecting children in
(23:14):
one second, but before I do, I want to bring
up the illegal aliens for a second. Not illegal aliens,
all aliens, foreigners who are having children. The number of
foreigners giving birth in America skyrocketed during Biden's administration, which
would make sense because he had an open border and
they know, hey, citizenship, if I just give birth to
(23:34):
a baby during this time period twenty twenty five, looks
like as of right now, that the number of births
by foreigners is down at one point seven percent across
the board. That's not even among people of every single country.
President Biden, if you remember, in his last year as administration,
did something called the CCHNV Parole program, where he was
(23:56):
he was so nervous with the optics of people flooding
the border that he was lying people into this country
if they came from four specific countries where there was
large populations of people trying to cross the border, Cuba, Hating, Nicaragua,
and Venezuela. Currently, birth rates for Cubans, Haitians, and Venezuelan
Venezuelans are up twelve percent this year versus last year.
(24:18):
Because even though Trump has ended the program, they're clearly
very well aware that if they have children now, they'll
have a case to sit there and try to get
some kind of amnesty, they'll have a foothold for citizenship.
They are very very well aware of that, and I
think that's part of it. The other group that is
still having a lot more kids than they used to
(24:39):
are Afghanistanian Afghanistan because they are I mean a lot
more refugees live in this country now too. Their birth
rates members are up significantly. So those are the people
who are increasing who's declining as far as foreign women
having children in America, who are there for them becoming
American citizens women from Mexico. They are birth rates down
(24:59):
for point six percent. L Salvador is down thirteen percent.
Or remember under President Bukeli, L Salvador is a very
safe country now and he's doing all these economic reforms
to try to get the economy going and the standard
of living you can get more bang for your buck
down there, a lot of L Salvadorians are it looks like,
(25:20):
starting to move back to El Salvador or considering it
as Trump is cracked down on illegal immigration and there's
job opportunity and safe streets in El Salvador. The number
of illegal aliens people from El Salvador are even trying
to illegally immigrate to this country is declining and was
declining even going back to Biden's last year because El
Salvador was becoming so safe. El Salvadorians are down thirteen percent,
(25:43):
Hondurans are down six percent, Chinese are down five percent,
and Nigerians are down ten percent. Populations with large illegal
alien groups in this country who are fearing deportation or
are self deporting or are physically being deported, you're seeing
declining birth rates among those populations. So I've find that
all very very interesting how those numbers are being how
(26:05):
public policy is reflecting in our birthnverage going forward. Lastly,
there's a big significant split based on politics and religion
and child rearing. Most fertile counties in our country with
a population of over one hundred thousand people all voted
for Trump, every one of them. The top fifty all
(26:25):
voted for Trump unanimously. The bottom fifty, the ones who
have the fewest children, of counties with one hundred thousand
people or less, all voted for Comma. I think, except
for one. That is a stark difference in priorities in policy,
in just view of your way of life, view in
(26:50):
what you want to do. Listen, we don't live in
America in twenty twenty five. Children are not an economic
asset the way that they were one hundred years ago. Right,
your child is not going to be farm a farm
hand or work in a factory. In bringing home their paycheck.
Kids cost a lot of money. They're a big sacrifice.
(27:10):
And unless you are motivated by a calling to have children,
or religion or something like that, or the idea that
strong families build strong countries. A lot of conservative ideas,
there's nothing driving you to have children. And that is
why we're seeing birth rates among progressives and improgressive areas
(27:33):
just knows, dive across the board so far in twenty
twenty five. This is according to CDC wonder st one
percent of all births that have happened in this country
happened in states that Donald Trump won. Now, remember Trump
got forty nine percent of the vote, but sixty one
percent of all the births are happening in Trump states.
(27:55):
That's a tremendous difference when you especial when you consider
that states like Illinois and New York and Maryland in
Connecticut and New Jersey, in California and Washington, those are
big states. Colorado's not a small state. Colorado is not
you know, North Dakota. This is a lot of people
just flat out saying this is not for me. I'm
not going to either have kids or maybe I'll have
(28:17):
one if that, And it's going to be a problem
in the future as you have two parties that have
very different conceptions of how to prioritize and invest in things. Right,
a lot of times in the last decade, the two
leading politicians that fought for increased tax breaks for families
(28:41):
were Mike Lee and Mark Rubio, because one represent a
lot of Hispanics that have not a crazy high fertility anymore,
but higher than the average. And the other was Mormons,
and there's a lot of Mormons with big families. Their politics,
they what they prioritize was historically different than what a
lot of Democrats prioritize, and which party is inclined to
(29:04):
care about issues like that will matter immensely as states.
You'll have states with lots of children or with just children,
even if it's two per couple, and you will have
states with less than one per couple, and that will
bring out two different countries in a different way. Pew
researched a study just a few days ago, and they asked,
(29:25):
are you concerned about the declining birth rates? A majority
of Americans for the first time said yes, that they
think it's negative and they are worried. But even then
there was a partisan break. Sixty three percent of Republicans
said yes, forty four percent of Democrats said yes, And
the most concerned group about declining birth rates and declining
families were young Republican men. The least concerned young Democratic women.
(29:51):
It is a very, very very big question, and as
states hollow out in the next decade, in the next
two decades because of declining birth rates, Democrats are going
to be increasingly dependent on illegal and legal immigration. As
voters leave their state because of failed economic policies, because
(30:14):
of high taxes, because of declining quality of life, illegal
immigrants and legal immigrants will fill that void. Even though
they have failed American people, They will look for foreigners
to fill the void of Americans who either gave up
on children or gave up on their state. This is
(30:35):
why reducing immigration, both legal and illegal, is so utterly important.
If we continue at the rate we are at and
we just impoort people California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland,
these failed blue state experiments, they're politicians who should be
(30:57):
losing congressional seats at a faster than they are will
not suffer those ramifications. So long as we have mass immigration,
the electoral college vote will not shrink as it should
because of mass immigration. Does come down to that, over
and over and over again, and I think the birth
data really does sit there and extrapolate to a larger
(31:17):
question of who we are, our priorities, what we value,
our values as a country, and I think you're going
to have a bigger going forward to you have a
bigger split on the idea of investing in families. All right, now,
time for Ask Me Anything. Stay tuned now it's time
(31:38):
for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to
be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me
Ryan at Numbers gamepodcast dot com. Send me a question.
I read them all. Anyone I don't get you on
aar I sent a private email too, and I appreciate
all my listeners who make this show happen. So this
one comes from Ryan or Day. He wants to know
how to Democrats hold the Kentucky governor election. Sorr, I
(31:59):
win the election for Kentucky's governorship even though the state
has moved significantly towards Republicans both federally and in voter registration.
That is a great question, Robert, So Democrats, this is
in that this is in the most recent election. Democrats
have had the governor's mansion for most of the last
one hundred years. Republicans have only controlled the governorship of
(32:20):
Kentucky for twelve years since nineteen forty seven twenty fifteen.
Matt Bevian won Republican. Matt Bevan won a significant victory
for Republicans. He won by nine points in a state
that doesn't elect Republicans, only to lose it by half
a percentage points to Andy Basheer in twenty nineteen. Now,
Andy Basheer is also floating that he's going to run
(32:42):
for president. So what happened? First, Evan was one of
the least popular governors going into reelection in twenty twenty three.
He had a thirty two percent of favorability rating and
he even had a forty percent disciperating with Republicans going
to election day. Remember, Kentucky has a lot of working
(33:03):
class Republicans, a lot of people who were in unions,
a lot of people who are on welfare and depend
on foodstamps, and a lot of them who were recently Democrats,
and they still hold a lot of Democratic issues on
fiscal policy. So first Bevans, I think First Bevan's first
mistake was he's very bombastic. I think people like look
(33:24):
at Trump and sit there and say I could be
just like him, and they take the wrong lessons, and
the lessons should be Hey, I could speak towards the
American people's interests on America first topics, and instead they're like, hey,
I could act, you know, rude to people and be
funny get away with it. Most people are not funny.
Matt Evans not particularly funny. Donald Trump's hilarious, so that
he has that advantage. But Matt Bevan went after not
(33:45):
the teachers' union, but teachers, which is two very separate things.
He went after the profession himself. He said they were
selfish and had a thug like mentality. Then he went
after trying to stop the Medicaid expansion that the previous
Democratic governor had already okayed, which would have given four
(34:05):
hundred thousand Kentucky residents, mostly poor, rural white Republicans were
on So cutting four hundred thousand Republican voters from the
medicaid Medicaid expansion was definitely a big, big hit. Lastly,
you know Kentucky. I've done some business in Kentucky. Kentucky
is business owners like paper like. It's a nightmare. It's
(34:30):
a night where to employ people you have to go.
It's tons of red tape. It reminds of Illinois and
New York. It should be a lot, a lot easier
to do business in Kentucky than it currently is, and
they have a lot of fiscal problems on the state levels.
There's a lot of money owed in pension programs that
they have not they don't have a they don't have
(34:51):
a plan for So Bevan's plan was austerity, and austerity
is never popular, but especially not when people are already
economically and uncertain areas, and when you're cutting off Medicaid
expansion and you're not a particularly lovable person because you're
a bombastic All of those things ended up counting. So
(35:11):
that's why Bevan lost. It seems like it was an
easy win to have and he just yeah, he just
had a lot. It was a it was a death
by a thousand paper cuts. So but that's the story
and that's why map Evan lost and that's why Democrats
currently hold the governorship of Kentucky. Anyway, thank you for
your question, Robert, great question. Love telling stories about political
campaigns and the history, so love questions like that. Anyway,
(35:34):
Thank you guys for listening. I will speak to you
all on Monday. Stay tuned a please liken subscribe on
the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts.
Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Gerdusky. Today
is Thursday, October ninth, twenty twenty five. It is twenty
five days till the twenty twenty five election local elections
across the country. Make a plan and get out and vote.
Vote by mail, vote early in person, or vote on
election day. Make a plan, just and make sure you vote.
Local elections matter. Everything from school board to governor is
(00:27):
up in different places across the country. So find out
what's on the ballot in your area. Go to the
Secretary of State website or your local county website and
figure it out and make the game plan. It is
really important to have informed, active voters. Okay, I know
that this podcast has been very heavy on campaigns lately.
(00:47):
I come from a campaign background. I'm sure a lot
of other people are kind of getting sick of it
and it gets grading after a while. Not everyone is
like me who lives and eats and breathes campaigns. So
I think next Thursday, I'm going to do a politics
free episode where I will do another issue. I don't
know what it is yet, I'll know it by Monday,
but maybe I'll just do book reviews or something about
(01:11):
true crime or something I'm interested in, something that is
not related to campaign specific I will give my listener
a one day break before we go fall on into
the election, and if you have a topic, by the
way that you want me to research and cover, please
email me ryanat Numbers gamepodcast dot com and throw what
you like to hear about this non political episode. I'm
(01:31):
really leaving up to the audience and letting them decide
what I talk about. I think this would be really
interesting and a nice break from people who just want
to take a breather between all the conversations about the
elections coming up. So for today's episode, I have a
little bit of interesting data coming up with the campaigns
and the elections in our important states We're not just important,
(01:53):
but the ones that are the most high profile, as
well as some non political stuff related to birth data
that I think you'd find really interesting. So first, let's
go on the campaigns, because we're already talking about it.
I heard from a good friend of mine who is
on a statewide race in Virginia that internal polls have
Republican incumbent Attorney General Jason Miarrez in a statistical tie
(02:15):
with Democrat James Jay Jones. Now Jay Jones once again
is the Democrat who made the comment that he wants
to see his colleagues being shot in the head and
having or he would shoot them in the head rather,
and that he wants to see their children being murdered.
This poll was taken on the cusp of those comments.
So since those comments, I imagine he's going to see
(02:36):
a two or three point bump and we could very
well see Miaras in the mix. As far as leading
in the polls, Donald Trump just recently endorsed him. Now,
early voting continues to climb in that state, as well
as all their states. Virginia has forty five days of
early voting, which in my opinion, is too much, and
over four hundred thousand people so far have voted like shit.
(02:59):
Analysis experts estimate that about fifty two percent of registered
Virginians should be expected to vote in this election. That's
down from fifty five percent in twenty twenty one. Overall,
that means, if that's true, that means that between three
point one to three point two million people will be
expected to show up. That means that twelve point five percent,
(03:22):
or one in eight voters already have cast their ballot
lots of for grabs, but what mer is and what
the Republicans running in both lieutenant governor and governor and
all across the state as far as state legislators wanted
to go. Whether which should be trying to do right
now is not only convince moderates and independence to cast
(03:43):
ballots for them, but there are hundreds of thousands of
people who are low propensity voters who don't show up
in every election and convincing them to show up in
this election. Remember Donald Trump received two point zero seven
five million votes in twenty twenty four and Young Can
received one point sixty six million. That's the difference of
four hundred and ten thousand people who vote Republican when
(04:08):
it's convenient for president or when they excited for president
but don't tend to show up in these elections, these
local elections. Four hundred and ten thousand people is a lot.
It's make or break, So really increasing attention towards these
races in the last few days may make the difference
between winning and losing. Miarez has a lot going for
(04:29):
him right now. There is a reporter named Nick Minneck.
He is a reporter for w JLA over in Washington.
A pretty nonpartisan guy from everything I've ever seen from him,
and he says that Jay Jones is in crisis mode
in that election. He said he's on the phone with
Democrat elected officials asking them not to drop their support
(04:49):
for him. The Fraternal Order of Virginia Police came out
with a letter over the week saying that he was
unfit to hold for office, and he was. Jay Jones
was forced to cancel two fundraisers, including one with Senator
Tim King, because he was afraid of being asked questions
about his comments and his text messages. This all comes,
(05:11):
by the way, as the embattled Democrat is facing another controversy.
The Republican who he was texting with came out and
said that Jones had told her that he believed some
police needed to die in order to stop them from
killing people. He allegedly made these comments in twenty twenty eight,
at the height of the Floyd riots. I would love
(05:34):
to see what Jay Jones had to sit there and
text the day Charlie Kirk was assassinated. That would probably
be very eye opening. Ason Mire is the Republican incumbent.
His campaign is dropping an unbelievable one point five million
dollars in the closing weeks on a commercial and about
the text messages that Jones sent. The Club for Growth,
(05:54):
which is a major Republican has a major Republican pack
and millions of millions of dollars in their arsenal. They
are also unveiling a brutal new ad with tagging that
Jones is dressed up in a soup but should be
in a straight jacket. I am unaware how much money
they're putting behind it, but the Club really doesn't do
(06:15):
anything in small doses. They're kind of a major They
you know, a lot of a lot of firepower in
their canon. So I imagine if they're doing an ad
and they're taking out such a brutal ad, that they
are going to be spending a lot of money getting
it out there. Republicans. It's very clear that they think
Jason has Jason Miars has the chance to pull out
(06:38):
an election victory, and he might be the only one
statewide in Virginia who can. But it is something that
they are all doubling and tripling down on, from Donald
Trump to the Club for Growth to his own internal
campaign and j Jones is absolutely got is on his
back heels. We'll see how that shakes up in the
last twenty five days to the election, but it's very
(06:59):
clear a whare the energy is moving and if we'll
probably get a public poll I imagine soon. Washington Post
usually only releases one poll before the election, and they
adjusted it before the scandal broke. Maybe they'll do a
second one. Remember, polls are very, very expensive, so I
don't know. Maybe let's sit there, it's too much news
(07:21):
not to do what you would think. But we'll hopefully
get maybe some public polls next week about where the
state of the Virginia elections are and if anything changed
with Jay Jones's text messages. I genuinely hope for the
sake of our country that they did and that someone
who fantasizes about killing children does not hold elected office
in this country. Okay, now I want to focus on
(07:44):
New Jersey for a second. Republican Jack Chitarelli picked up
some important endorsements from two Democrats in Hudson County, New Jersey.
They are local elected officials in Hudson County. It's also
rumored that by the New Jersey Globe that the chairman
of the Hudson County Democratic Party is preparing to endorse Chittarelli.
This is a pretty big surprise. Hudson County is a
(08:05):
plurality Hispanic county that has voted for Democrat every presidential
election since nineteen eighty four, and where Jack Chiarelli only
received twenty five percent of the vote last time. Well,
obviously it's that wouldn't that would give permission for Democrats
to support basically any Democrat because it's such a democratic area,
(08:26):
They're not going to be held accountable by voters in
such a blue area. But like most places with large
Hispanic populations, it saw a right wing shift. The district
was eight points right from twenty seventeen to twenty twenty
one in the governor's election, and sixteen points to the
right between twenty twenty and twenty twenty four. Trump received
(08:47):
twice as many votes that in twenty twenty four as
Jack Charelli did in twenty twenty one. Who knows that
these people are going to be stay Republican or if
they're going to be animated to vote in a govern
election that's not a presidential election. If they're all just
low propensity voters, there's a lot of a lot of
(09:07):
this comes out of internal party politics of who hates
who and who doesn't like the Democrat Mickey Cheryl and
who doesn't like who's supported her. Part of this is
elected Democrats feeling the ability to be more for lack
of a better term, liberal in their decision making when
(09:28):
it comes to who to pick from, because normally you
would say, oh, I'm going to lose everything if I
endorse the Republican. They're probably only doing this if they
feel like the Republican might win. Now, it's still solid
Democratic county in a state that leans Democratic, but party
but the party has some reason to be concerned. There
(09:50):
are internal polls showing that Mikey Cheryl is with only
three point lead against Jack Chidarelli. This is from a
new report from Axios. What's interesting about that is that
Democratic commentators have been saying publicly, don't worry, we are fine.
We have these Fox News polls that are showing that
(10:10):
Mikey Cheryl's up by eight points. It's still New Jersey.
New Jersey is still a blue state. Quietly, they've been
dumping twenty five million dollars into this race from packs
to try to sit there and brand that Jack Ciarelli
is just like Trump, so if you hate Trump, you
have to vote against Jack Ciarelli. Democrats have been saying
this is not a five alarm fire, but it's clearly
(10:31):
not a cake walk. It's somewhere in between. Democrats still
hold an election turnout advantage. So far, New Jersey's voter
turnout has had a Democrat advantage of seventy five thousand.
They're all mail in votes because the early in person
voting has not yet begun in New Jersey, so that
should tighten. But Democrats are really trying to build this
(10:52):
massive early vote lead from mail in ballads in case
they get swamped on election day. Republicans are returning ballots
at a slightly larger pace than they were in twenty twenty,
but a lot of people are there's more Democrats asking
for these ballots. In twenty twenty one, one hundred and
sixty thousand people requested ballots. In twenty twenty five, about
(11:17):
two hundred thousand people have requested ballots, and Democrats just
hold a larger lead in the physical number of ballots
they have returned. They're really animated to get these lower
propensalty people to vote by mail, and Republicans are still
skittish about voting by mail, so Democrats are looking to
take advantage where they have the opportunity, basically using Republican
(11:38):
skiittishness on mail in ballots to get as many older
people or lower pensity people to sit there and show up.
The same thing is happening, by the way, in Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania's not a race that a lot of people are covering,
but is a Supreme Court race. This will matter heavily
when Pennsylvania Supreme Court is a majority Democrats a statewide
(12:01):
elected position. This will matter intensely when they go into
the twenty thirty two redistricting map because the Democrat Pennsylvania
Supreme Court is not going to rule any map that
favors a Republican even if you know we have a
Republican governor and Republican legislature. They're not going to go
with any map that overly favors Republicans. And Pennsylvania has
(12:22):
slated toulu Is one congressional seat next year, so there's
a lot on the line right now. Democrats have requested
six hundred and thirty one thousand, that's while Republicans have
only requested two hundred and thirty five thousand. Pennsylvania has
no early voting aside from mail and balloting, so this
is intensely important. Democrats like to build this idea that
(12:44):
there's this firewall that they have built from early ballot voting.
Because here's the thing, my people who only wait till
election day. If you are a person who's never missed
an election, you're probably not going to miss this election. Now,
if you're the average Joe Schmoe, who cares. They they
maybe listen to, you know, conservative talk radio, but they're busy,
(13:04):
They got kids, they have a job, they have a
social life. They sleep in that day, they have to
cook dinner, or they're surraining outside, they don't feel like
doing it, the weather's bad or what. Everyone makes excuses
of why they can and cannot show up on election day.
And for people who've only voted in one of the
four or zero of the four last elections, or even
two of the last four elections, it is intensely important
(13:27):
to try to get those people out early because those
are the ones who always make excuses. You know these
kinds of people in your life, I have them. You
know those people who will be like, oh, I'm gonna
cook for a fourth of July. I'm gonna come over
and bring over all the hamburgers and then they're an
hour and a half late like that and they only
have like three bunths. That is the kind of person
who you need to sit there and make sure that
(13:47):
they show up to vote, because if there's an excuse
why they can't show why they can be late, they're
gonna find the excuse. We all have that people in
our life. Someone listen this podcast, maybe you are that
person in that case, figure out a to go vote early.
I'm just going to touch on one other race, So
Pennsylvania rounding up. Democrats definitely have been building up this lead.
(14:08):
It's not as large as it was the last time
they had a Supreme Court race, which was another odd year,
but it is much larger percentage wise than during the
presidential election when Trump where Republicans really did start two
Republicans credit. In the twenty twenty four election, Republicans in Pennsylvania,
especially at the end, really ramped up mail in voting.
They were turning those suckers in at a very very
(14:30):
fast rate. Last race I want to just touch on
because I want to cover all the big ones that
you guys could be updated, and that is the New
York City mayor's race. Social Zora Mandani is still has
a healthy double digit lead, about like twelve or thirteen
percent in most private and public polling I have seen.
He's not going to hit fifty percent. But there is
(14:51):
this conflict. Is that Curtis Leewaugh, who's the Republican nominee,
someone I've met many times over the years, doesn't have
a snowballs chance in hell of winning. His advisors are
telling him that he does. Andrew Cuomo is running one
of the worst campaigns I've ever seen in my life,
where he should be reaching out to Republicans in New
York and he's not doing any of that. He should
(15:11):
be telling to Republicans in New York. Remember, I was
once a moderate governor, and I will govern for all
New Yorkers, whether you are a Republican or not. I
don't know if it's his advisors, I don't know if
Cuomo just really doesn't care about Republicans. I actually found
out with this is the most interesting thing. I have
a friend who is I mean, this is a fire
breathing Republican someone younger than me and randomly brings up
(15:35):
that he is, you know, Andrew Cuomo's first cousin. I
was like what, I was like, how are you related
to this person? I mean, I guess that's true in
all families, but I don't. He can't have this absolute
hatred I think for Republicans, you know, considering that family
members close to him are, you know, our Republican clearly.
(15:55):
I just think that he is trying to appease the
most act out parts of the base. And he's the
same guy who said if you are pro life, you
don't belong in New York State. So enough of those
comments have, I think, really caught up to him, and
this is the time where he should be saying too Republicans,
to Republican Party bosses, to Republican Party voters, Hey, if
(16:17):
you support me, I will the Democrats and the unions
that he essentially has a lot of sway with and
would if he was a mayor, support all the Republican
incumbents in New York City for City Council and for
State Assembly and for State Senate. That's a lot that
would do so much for Republicans if he just even
(16:40):
gave that little breadcrumb, but I don't know what he's doing.
I think this is one of the worst campaigns I've
ever seen in my life and courteously should have drop
that a long time ago. Okay, that's my political roundup
for this episode. I will cover politics probably on Monday,
especially if the Supreme Court decides on Section two eighty
eight the Voting Rights Act. I'll give you probably a
(17:01):
brief update about it, and then Thursday we'll do a
non political episode. I have a non political issue that
I want to bring up on this episode, and it
is about birth data trends and I think it's fascinating
and you will too, so stay tuned next. So, the
CDC is the official authority on data relating to births
(17:22):
and deaths. The Census usually puts out its own estimates,
and the media loves to talk about the Census estimates,
but the Census estimates are not the ones the government uses.
It's the CDC and CDC Wonder, which is their website.
They have a preliminary monthly numbers before the final estimation
is given out and the final aust mission comes out
usually eighteen months after the year's over. Because they do
(17:45):
all the calculations and we wait for the official estimate,
obviously official numbers, and that will be released for twenty
twenty five, sometimes in late twenty twenty six or early
twenty twenty seven. On October first, they put out their
estimates for the year of twenty twenty five from January
to August, and there's some interesting data that tells a
bigger story about our country and where we're going. First,
(18:08):
let's look at the top line numbers. From January to
August twenty twenty five, there were a little less than
two point four million babies born in this country. That's
down about a half a percentage point from the year prior.
And they don't break down babies born by the race
of the child. They break it down by the race
of the mother. Forty nine point seven to six percent
of all babies born from the from January to August
(18:31):
were had white mothers, twenty six point seven seven had
Hispanic mothers, twelve point six had Black mothers, six percent
had Asian mothers, and the rest were either a multi
racial American, Indian, Pacific Islander, or other. The decline infertility
rates in the birth rates in the last during this
(18:51):
year is not equal among all racial groups. Specifically, two
groups have seen a noticeable drop in fertility, one being
non Hispanic blacks and the second being foreigners, people whose
women born in another country, specifically women from high populations
of illegal immigrants, soies, so women who come from countries
(19:14):
with large illegal alien populations. In the United States, let's
start with the non Hispanic black number. It is a
strange phenomenon that happened sometime in the mid to late
two thousands, and it's that the black birth rate has
been just steadily declining to the point of collapsing in
(19:35):
some parts of this country. The black female birth rate
in twenty twenty four, for the first time in a
very long time, was actually lower than whites, and at
the rate that has declined this year, twenty twenty five
will have a larger gap in the white fertility rate,
the non Hispanic white fertility rate versus the black fertility rate.
This has started. This general decline has started for a
(19:57):
bit of time. It started in the ninety when there
was a real effort presented by both the federal government
as well as the local and state to one do
welfare reform and the second only to stop to provide
basically protection, so there was less teen births. The teen
birth rate from the nineties has it's gone down like
(20:19):
well over ninety five ninety eight percent of teen births.
Teen births just don't happen, not nearly like they used to.
But the birth rate for non Hispanic Black women remained
around the same from the late nineties into the late
two thousands and then just nose dives and it's fallen
(20:40):
three point six percent this year alone. Now a lot
of conservative commentators immediately bring up abortion. They say, well,
access to abortion is what's killing black babies in the womb.
That is partially true. But states with very strict abortion
laws even abortion bands, don't have a significantly higher Black
for ten rate with states with very little to no
(21:02):
abortion bands. So states like Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida,
they all have very strict abortion laws, they have a
birth rate well below replacement and pretty much equal to
places like Colorado, Delaware, Ohio, and Michigan. There's not been
a single sociological examination of that this is happening. I
(21:26):
doubt that even sociologists have realized how much this is happening.
I guarantee. A lot of other people aren't even talking
about this right now, but around the twenty tens, there
was a dramatic increase in the number of Black women
attending college. Remember when women attend college, especially in a
master's degree or a PhD program, they put child rearing
(21:46):
well into their late thirties or early forties, or just
give up on it altogether, and they have fewer children
than they would have had they didn't pursue a doctorate
or a master's. There was about eleven percent of black
women had a bachelor's degree in nineteen ninety. That was
up to twenty six percent and twenty twenty three. So
college as part of it, as well as the declining
number of teen pregnancies, and then a third part of
(22:08):
it is the cost of living. States like New York,
New Jersey, California, Connecticut, they have a fertility level of
Black women that is heading towards about one child per woman,
which is that means the population will have over the
course of the next twenty to twenty five years as
older generations pass away and younger generations are significantly smaller.
(22:31):
This is the problem you're seeing like in Japan and
in South Korea and in Italy and Poland, is that
the generations are literally half of what they were just
twenty years ago, and they're continuing to decline because people
are not having enough babies. What that sits there and
says to me specifically, given that these birth rates come
(22:52):
out of big blue states where the populations are not
having a lot of children, is that you're going to
see the Democrats increasingly dependent on immigrants to make up
the declining population in the states from the Americans who
are not having children today. Right, And I want to
go over the whole idea of policies affecting children in
(23:14):
one second, but before I do, I want to bring
up the illegal aliens for a second. Not illegal aliens,
all aliens, foreigners who are having children. The number of
foreigners giving birth in America skyrocketed during Biden's administration, which
would make sense because he had an open border and
they know, hey, citizenship, if I just give birth to
(23:34):
a baby during this time period twenty twenty five, looks
like as of right now, that the number of births
by foreigners is down at one point seven percent across
the board. That's not even among people of every single country.
President Biden, if you remember, in his last year as administration,
did something called the CCHNV Parole program, where he was
(23:56):
he was so nervous with the optics of people flooding
the border that he was lying people into this country
if they came from four specific countries where there was
large populations of people trying to cross the border, Cuba, Hating, Nicaragua,
and Venezuela. Currently, birth rates for Cubans, Haitians, and Venezuelan
Venezuelans are up twelve percent this year versus last year.
(24:18):
Because even though Trump has ended the program, they're clearly
very well aware that if they have children now, they'll
have a case to sit there and try to get
some kind of amnesty, they'll have a foothold for citizenship.
They are very very well aware of that, and I
think that's part of it. The other group that is
still having a lot more kids than they used to
(24:39):
are Afghanistanian Afghanistan because they are I mean a lot
more refugees live in this country now too. Their birth
rates members are up significantly. So those are the people
who are increasing who's declining as far as foreign women
having children in America, who are there for them becoming
American citizens women from Mexico. They are birth rates down
(24:59):
for point six percent. L Salvador is down thirteen percent.
Or remember under President Bukeli, L Salvador is a very
safe country now and he's doing all these economic reforms
to try to get the economy going and the standard
of living you can get more bang for your buck
down there, a lot of L Salvadorians are it looks like,
(25:20):
starting to move back to El Salvador or considering it
as Trump is cracked down on illegal immigration and there's
job opportunity and safe streets in El Salvador. The number
of illegal aliens people from El Salvador are even trying
to illegally immigrate to this country is declining and was
declining even going back to Biden's last year because El
Salvador was becoming so safe. El Salvadorians are down thirteen percent,
(25:43):
Hondurans are down six percent, Chinese are down five percent,
and Nigerians are down ten percent. Populations with large illegal
alien groups in this country who are fearing deportation or
are self deporting or are physically being deported, you're seeing
declining birth rates among those populations. So I've find that
all very very interesting how those numbers are being how
(26:05):
public policy is reflecting in our birthnverage going forward. Lastly,
there's a big significant split based on politics and religion
and child rearing. Most fertile counties in our country with
a population of over one hundred thousand people all voted
for Trump, every one of them. The top fifty all
(26:25):
voted for Trump unanimously. The bottom fifty, the ones who
have the fewest children, of counties with one hundred thousand
people or less, all voted for Comma. I think, except
for one. That is a stark difference in priorities in policy,
in just view of your way of life, view in
(26:50):
what you want to do. Listen, we don't live in
America in twenty twenty five. Children are not an economic
asset the way that they were one hundred years ago. Right,
your child is not going to be farm a farm
hand or work in a factory. In bringing home their paycheck.
Kids cost a lot of money. They're a big sacrifice.
(27:10):
And unless you are motivated by a calling to have children,
or religion or something like that, or the idea that
strong families build strong countries. A lot of conservative ideas,
there's nothing driving you to have children. And that is
why we're seeing birth rates among progressives and improgressive areas
(27:33):
just knows, dive across the board so far in twenty
twenty five. This is according to CDC wonder st one
percent of all births that have happened in this country
happened in states that Donald Trump won. Now, remember Trump
got forty nine percent of the vote, but sixty one
percent of all the births are happening in Trump states.
(27:55):
That's a tremendous difference when you especial when you consider
that states like Illinois and New York and Maryland in
Connecticut and New Jersey, in California and Washington, those are
big states. Colorado's not a small state. Colorado is not
you know, North Dakota. This is a lot of people
just flat out saying this is not for me. I'm
not going to either have kids or maybe I'll have
(28:17):
one if that, And it's going to be a problem
in the future as you have two parties that have
very different conceptions of how to prioritize and invest in things. Right,
a lot of times in the last decade, the two
leading politicians that fought for increased tax breaks for families
(28:41):
were Mike Lee and Mark Rubio, because one represent a
lot of Hispanics that have not a crazy high fertility anymore,
but higher than the average. And the other was Mormons,
and there's a lot of Mormons with big families. Their politics,
they what they prioritize was historically different than what a
lot of Democrats prioritize, and which party is inclined to
(29:04):
care about issues like that will matter immensely as states.
You'll have states with lots of children or with just children,
even if it's two per couple, and you will have
states with less than one per couple, and that will
bring out two different countries in a different way. Pew
researched a study just a few days ago, and they asked,
(29:25):
are you concerned about the declining birth rates? A majority
of Americans for the first time said yes, that they
think it's negative and they are worried. But even then
there was a partisan break. Sixty three percent of Republicans
said yes, forty four percent of Democrats said yes, And
the most concerned group about declining birth rates and declining
families were young Republican men. The least concerned young Democratic women.
(29:51):
It is a very, very very big question, and as
states hollow out in the next decade, in the next
two decades because of declining birth rates, Democrats are going
to be increasingly dependent on illegal and legal immigration. As
voters leave their state because of failed economic policies, because
(30:14):
of high taxes, because of declining quality of life, illegal
immigrants and legal immigrants will fill that void. Even though
they have failed American people, They will look for foreigners
to fill the void of Americans who either gave up
on children or gave up on their state. This is
(30:35):
why reducing immigration, both legal and illegal, is so utterly important.
If we continue at the rate we are at and
we just impoort people California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland,
these failed blue state experiments, they're politicians who should be
(30:57):
losing congressional seats at a faster than they are will
not suffer those ramifications. So long as we have mass immigration,
the electoral college vote will not shrink as it should
because of mass immigration. Does come down to that, over
and over and over again, and I think the birth
data really does sit there and extrapolate to a larger
(31:17):
question of who we are, our priorities, what we value,
our values as a country, and I think you're going
to have a bigger going forward to you have a
bigger split on the idea of investing in families. All right, now,
time for Ask Me Anything. Stay tuned now it's time
(31:38):
for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to
be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me
Ryan at Numbers gamepodcast dot com. Send me a question.
I read them all. Anyone I don't get you on
aar I sent a private email too, and I appreciate
all my listeners who make this show happen. So this
one comes from Ryan or Day. He wants to know
how to Democrats hold the Kentucky governor election. Sorr, I
(31:59):
win the election for Kentucky's governorship even though the state
has moved significantly towards Republicans both federally and in voter registration.
That is a great question, Robert, So Democrats, this is
in that this is in the most recent election. Democrats
have had the governor's mansion for most of the last
one hundred years. Republicans have only controlled the governorship of
(32:20):
Kentucky for twelve years since nineteen forty seven twenty fifteen.
Matt Bevian won Republican. Matt Bevan won a significant victory
for Republicans. He won by nine points in a state
that doesn't elect Republicans, only to lose it by half
a percentage points to Andy Basheer in twenty nineteen. Now,
Andy Basheer is also floating that he's going to run
(32:42):
for president. So what happened? First, Evan was one of
the least popular governors going into reelection in twenty twenty three.
He had a thirty two percent of favorability rating and
he even had a forty percent disciperating with Republicans going
to election day. Remember, Kentucky has a lot of working
(33:03):
class Republicans, a lot of people who were in unions,
a lot of people who are on welfare and depend
on foodstamps, and a lot of them who were recently Democrats,
and they still hold a lot of Democratic issues on
fiscal policy. So first Bevans, I think First Bevan's first
mistake was he's very bombastic. I think people like look
(33:24):
at Trump and sit there and say I could be
just like him, and they take the wrong lessons, and
the lessons should be Hey, I could speak towards the
American people's interests on America first topics, and instead they're like, hey,
I could act, you know, rude to people and be
funny get away with it. Most people are not funny.
Matt Evans not particularly funny. Donald Trump's hilarious, so that
he has that advantage. But Matt Bevan went after not
(33:45):
the teachers' union, but teachers, which is two very separate things.
He went after the profession himself. He said they were
selfish and had a thug like mentality. Then he went
after trying to stop the Medicaid expansion that the previous
Democratic governor had already okayed, which would have given four
(34:05):
hundred thousand Kentucky residents, mostly poor, rural white Republicans were
on So cutting four hundred thousand Republican voters from the
medicaid Medicaid expansion was definitely a big, big hit. Lastly,
you know Kentucky. I've done some business in Kentucky. Kentucky
is business owners like paper like. It's a nightmare. It's
(34:30):
a night where to employ people you have to go.
It's tons of red tape. It reminds of Illinois and
New York. It should be a lot, a lot easier
to do business in Kentucky than it currently is, and
they have a lot of fiscal problems on the state levels.
There's a lot of money owed in pension programs that
they have not they don't have a they don't have
(34:51):
a plan for So Bevan's plan was austerity, and austerity
is never popular, but especially not when people are already
economically and uncertain areas, and when you're cutting off Medicaid
expansion and you're not a particularly lovable person because you're
a bombastic All of those things ended up counting. So
(35:11):
that's why Bevan lost. It seems like it was an
easy win to have and he just yeah, he just
had a lot. It was a it was a death
by a thousand paper cuts. So but that's the story
and that's why map Evan lost and that's why Democrats
currently hold the governorship of Kentucky. Anyway, thank you for
your question, Robert, great question. Love telling stories about political
campaigns and the history, so love questions like that. Anyway,
(35:34):
Thank you guys for listening. I will speak to you
all on Monday. Stay tuned a please liken subscribe on
the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts.
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