In this episode, Ryan welcomes Albert Eisenberg to break down the data shaping the 2025 local elections across New Jersey, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. They dive into how soaring electricity costs from data centers are influencing voters, the enthusiasm gap between parties, and what recent polling reveals about key battlegrounds. The discussion highlights Pennsylvania’s shifting electorate, Senator John Fetterman’s standing within his party, and growing Republican momentum among working-class and minority voters. It's a Numbers Game is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Monday & Thursday.
Learn more about Albert's Work Here
Follow Clay & Buck on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/clayandbuck
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Gurdusky. Happy Monday.
There are just fifteen days to an upcoming twenty twenty
five local elections. If you haven't made a plan yet,
make a plan, vote by mail, vote on election day,
or vote early in person. Just make sure your voices
are heard early. Voting matters. Local elections matter, so make
a plan and get a vote. Before I go into
(00:25):
some numbers, I want to take a moment and brag
because I try very hard. I work really hard to
try to make my audience the most informed. They possibly
can be more informed than the average people who listen
to podcasts, and I have very very few talents in
this life. I was a great Brad Sales on The
Victoria's Secret. I was eighteen years old, and I'm really
(00:47):
good at predicting future political trends as they're about to happen,
but they haven't happened yet. On September eighth, more than
a month ago, I did a whole episode on how
the number one issue going to the elections of New
Jersey and Virginia was the rising cost of electricity because
of data centers. Data centers are responsible for two thirds
(01:08):
of the increasing electricity prices in New Jersey, and they've
added tens of millions of new homes worth of electricity
in the Virginia grid are then just a few days ago,
Dave Weigel, who writes for Semaphore, he wrote article colds
as electricity prices rise, both parties blamed data centers. Here's
a quote from the article. Fai Shakir, an advisor to
(01:30):
Senator Bernie Sanders and the founder of the progressive group
A More Perfect Union, said many Democrats were sleeping on
the issue that had ignited grassroots activists. More Perfect Union
has worked with data center opponents in multiple states, sharing
similar stories of worry about energy costs and resource ways.
Sanders has begun asking attendees of his quote fight oligarch
(01:53):
meetings about AI and data centers, and he found there's
very little political support for them. For any Democrat who
wants to think politically about opportunity. Shakir said that people
are way ahead of the politicians. He also goes on
the article. Wygel goes on in the article to sit
there and say, how we met local activists in Virginia
who are supporting the Democratic nominee for governor, but Republicans
(02:15):
locally who based on who's ever most against building new
data centers in Virginia the rise This is a rising
populist issue, one that people who are rooted in place,
people who have lived in the same place for decades,
or they plan to live there for decades, they're gonna
they move to a certain place because they're going to
grow their raise their children there, or maybe they've been
(02:36):
there for generations, will be increasingly angry over this issue.
Working class people will will have up till now, they
have always looked at the tech innovations in your life
as being fairly innocuous, even though we know that the
tech companies, you know, they steal our data that they
(02:59):
you know, sell our data that they they take our
photos for social media profiles that they're selling us. Right,
if you don't buy a product, you are the product.
That's the old phrase. But it has not negatively truly
affected anyone's life. It's going to be different when you
talk about loss of jobs from AI, young kids not
being able to get jobs, or it's just happening in
(03:21):
this economy right now, and increasing electricity prices and the
possibility of shortages of water in some of the Southwest
because of the Data center's cooling. Listen, you don't have
to take my word for it. Just remember I said it.
I said on September eighth. People are filing up with it.
Now I'm regurgitating it here in October. I'll talk about
(03:43):
it more. But this is a trend that will get bigger,
and Republicans better not be caught flat footed when it
is like a massive, massive issue that everyone's talking about. Okay,
Now to some numbers. After about a week or two
of just a drought, speaking of droughts, a drought in polling,
we've gotten some new numbers and it's very exciting. First
(04:06):
in New Jersey, there is a brand new Beacon Shaw
poll released by Fox News and it has Democrat Mikey
Cheryl leading Republican Jack Chitdarelli by five points. This is
a three point jump for Chittarelli in the last month.
Among what they've modeled as likely voters, Mikey Cheryl leads
Chitarelli fifty to forty five. That's down for Cheryl, what's
(04:29):
up for Chitarelly. That was fifty forty two last month
Among registered voters. Her lead is even smaller it's just
four points, forty eight to forty four among both registered
and likely voters. All the movements of undecided voters have
gone in Chittarelli's favor. Mikey Cheryl still leads, but Jack
Chitarelli seems to have a lot of things breaking in
(04:50):
his direction. Now, some of you may have caught this
on CNN. Harry Enton, who I actually anyone who works
at CNN. I respect him probably the most. I think
he does a really good job breaking down data to
make it understandable. He said that Chitarelli is doomed because
he ultimately needs to run over a bigger fraction of
Harris voters. Since Harris won the state by about six points.
(05:11):
He has a point, But I think that he's missing
something that is concerning Democrats in the state of New Jersey,
and that's voter enthusiasm. A fair Lie Dickerson and Quiney
Piac poll that was released this week, they were basically
in line with Fox News fair Line. Dickerson had Mikey
Cheryl leading by seven, Quinny Piac had our leading by six,
(05:32):
very similar to the Fox News pole. But one thing
that they found was that there is a serious double
digit gap in excitement over who they're voting for. Fifty
five percent of Jack Ciarelli voters say they are very
enthusiastic to support him, compared to only forty two percent
of Sharyl voters. That's a thirteen point gap. And there
(05:53):
is a fourteen and sorry, and fourteen percent of Mikey
Cheryl voters say they are not enthusiastic about voting compared
to just eight percent of Jack Chitarelli voters. We're seeing
this in the data in the mail in voting. A
key group of people that Mikey Cheryl has spent the
entire year trying to get excited to convinced to vote
for her, that were support of her in the primaries
(06:16):
has been minorities. Minorities did not want this ritual white
lady from a very elite town being their nominee, and
they are dragging their feet to said they're in vote.
My buddy on Twitter named Cinec, he breaks down data
and needs a great job of it. He found that
precincts in New Jersey that are majority white are voting
(06:37):
on average ten to twelve points at a greater frequency
in the mail in voting than districts that are majority
minorities either majority Black, majority Hispanic majority Asian, majority Black
districts are voting at twenty two percent. Twenty two percent
returned their ballads, twenty percent of Hispanics have returned their ballads,
and just twenty percent of Asians have returned their ballads.
(06:59):
That's a big difference compared to the thirty two percent
of white voters in voters in white majority precincts whoever
turned their ballads. My point has always been, if they're
not anxious to return their ballad when it's mailed to
their home, what are the chances that all the other
(07:20):
people are going to be excited enough to leave their
house on election day or early to get out into
go vote. If it rains, if it snows, if they
have a flat tire, if their kid is sneezing, whatever
the case may be, that is not a great indicator.
So it's not that Chitarelly has to ruin over Harris voters.
Harris voters have to show up, and right now in
(07:42):
the mail in data, it looks like there is a
little reluctancy. Now it's not all goodness for Chitarelly because
Cheryl Mikey Cheryl is building up a massive voter advantage
in the mail in ballads. She has sat there and
has a one hundred and thirty There's one hundred and
thirty thousand more Democrats who have submitted up mail in
ballad than Republicans, so she's going to go on election
(08:03):
Day with one hundred and thirty thousand vote lead. In
both the quenty piac and the Fox News poll and
the fair Line Dicker simple mind you, Chittarelli has a
lead among independents, but it's not enough that he would
have to have to win. In all the polls, he
has a mid single digit lead, and in the polls
(08:23):
previous that had him tied, he would need a twenty
point lead, right, which is of course possible. But these
later polls that show him in a small single digit deficit,
that's because he's not doing what he needs to do
among independences. Set there and win. I also want to
mention that there's a Republican leaning firm named Insider Advantage
that also came out with a poll that found Mikey
(08:45):
Cheryl leading, but she was only leading by one point
in that pole. It's a relatively new firm, so I'm
not putting a ton of stock in it because I
don't know enough about their fundamentals. They were very, very
good in twenty twenty four. They're one of the most
act polsters in twenty twenty four, so I'm even mentioning them,
but I want to see more before I sit there
and say, oh, this is the poll you should trust. Now,
(09:09):
just looking at the fundamentals of the state, Mikey Cheryl
has the advantage of voter registration. There are still more
Democrats than there are Republicans. Even though that number is shrinking,
there are still eight hundred and fifty five thousand more
Democrats than Republicans. That's one hundred and fifty thousand more
Democrats than where there when Chris Christy was first elected
in two thousand and nine. It will be very interesting
(09:29):
to see on November first, if voters if Republicans are
gaining more new voters than Democrats are Yet again, they've
been doing that almost every single month. On the fundamentals,
Mikey Cheryl, the Democrat has the advantage, but all the
momentum is going to Chittarelly. We will have to see
if there's enough time and enough things to break in
(09:50):
his direction before election day. As for Virginia, we only
have a few polls and they are mostly Republican leaning firms.
There's a Trifogar poll which was very accurate in twenty
twenty one, not so accurate in twenty twenty two, accurate
in twenty twenty four. They have shown a sizeable momentum
moving in favor of Republican Attorney General Kennet Jason Miarez.
(10:13):
He has a solid five point lead over Democrat Jay Jones,
who you know is very He's got scandaled in j Jones.
I watched the debate. It was fine, but it was
actually very well respectable. Miara said, the election is a
referendum on j Jones and his horrible text messages. Jones
said the election was about Trump. He actually mentioned Trump's
name almost forty times in a one hour debate. Obviously,
(10:36):
he wanted Democrats to come home and ignore everything he's
said in those horrible text messages. The poll also found
that in the race for Lieutenant governor, that the race
was essentially tied and that wins Sears was only down
two points. That ne Lissen Trafalgar has nailed a lot
of races that no one else saw coming. I'm not
(10:56):
dismissing them as a poll. I want to see something
else that shows this monumental swing towards Republicans before I
sit there and say, guys, this is you know, it
could happen. I don't know that it's an outliar. It's
worth paying attention to. It's a piece of data. I
want to see more. I was on the klam Buck
Show last week and Clay asked me our rather. Buck
(11:18):
asked me if these elections from Mandani and New York,
and the race in New Jersey and the race in
Virginia were signs of the midterms. I said, no, they're
not signs of the midterms. They're signs of the twenty
twenty eight election cycle. Because the only candidate you see
not losing steam at the very end is the socialist
candidate is Mundani in New York. He's been picking up
seen in some of these polls. The acceptable Democratic candidates
(11:41):
in New Jersey and Virginia, they're having to be bailed
out and have that reinforcements come save them. You know
Obama's campaign in Virginia. Democrats are pouring millions of dollars
into New Jersey. In the last minute. More than anything, though,
I think this gives insight into the titular swing state
of Pennsylvania and John Fetterman and whether or not he
can survive a primary challenge, whether he might become a Republican.
(12:04):
I will explore that next. With me on today's episode
is Albert Eisenberg. He is the principal of the red
of Redbridge. Let me try again. I'm not the red Bridge. Okay?
With me on today's episode is out, I'm sorry. With
me on today's episode is Albert Eisenberg. He is the
(12:24):
principal at Redbridge. It's a political firm in Pennsylvania that
has worked on a number of big races and does
outreach with groups that are flirting with being a Republican.
But I haven't given a hard commitment yet. Is that
a fair fair description, Albert?
Speaker 2 (12:38):
Yeah? The term I'm using in my business is they rent, rented,
but did not buy. Yes, well, I like flirting.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Yeah, well I think that's I think that's a little
more interesting, So Albert. There. So, first of all, there
was a story in Axios about Democrats preparing for a
primary challenge against John Fetterman and a Quinny pag poll
that was released a few weeks ago looked at Fetterman
and he was very popular in Pennsylvania, with exception of
one group Democrats. Democrats have really turned on John Fetterman,
(13:10):
which is strange given how much he votes with the party.
What is the story Npare Democrats really organized and committed
to this primary challenge?
Speaker 2 (13:20):
Well, the story nationally is that we're living in an
era of esthetic politics. It is not that he votes
with Democrats. It's that he sounds like an apostate when
he talks about immigration specifically and the Israel Palestine war.
So Fetterman's What people like about Fetterman who are not
(13:41):
liberal Democrats is that he's willing to buck his party
and speak sort of reality focused, unabashed messages on pretty
key central issues where Democrats are very out of step
with the nation as a whole. And that's a problem
with the Democratic base and the media sort of echo
chamber has yet to keyed up against him. The obvious
(14:02):
parallel is going to be what the Democrats did to
Kristen Cinema, who ended up abdicating her seat. And now
we have a more sort of liberal bomb thrower in
Ruben Diego and Arizona flirted with, you know, the independent run,
but ultimately there wasn't a path there. If the Democratic
primary was held today in Pennsylvania, Fetterman would lose. And
there are ambitious younger Democratic congressmen, three of them are
(14:25):
named in that piece by Holly Otter byne at Axios,
who are angling from different parts of the state to
replace Fetterman and primary him. And we'll have to see
what he decides to do before twenty twenty eight.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
Well, it's crazy because Betterman was the Burning bro like
this was. This was arguably Fetterman's election to the Senate
was arguably the Bernie Bros' biggest victory electoral victory. They
actually a statewide elected which they had never accomplished before
in the Senate. And because I guess besides Bernie obviously,
but AOC all these other members of the squad, they're
(15:01):
all House members. There's really no senators like that. Eliza
Warren is not part of the squad. She's just you know,
she just she enjoys mental masturbation a lot, but she's
not part of the squad. There are there are, But
Fetterman was an open burning supporter, and I think that
I think the vengeance for Fetterman comes because the betrayal
(15:23):
feels so real, the fact that we have aren't.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
Israel, Yes certainly. I mean the people that ran his
campaign were the most progressive aggressive. They had no qualms
about papering over his obvious health issues when he had
a stroke, just as a nasty Republican primary was resolving itself. Now,
he's obviously in a much better place mentally when you
listen to him now versus a few years ago. But
(15:47):
then all these stories have leaked about his mental health.
There's cognitive abilities, so they have no you know, they
view it as a betrayal. It sticks in their crawl
and they're going to try and operate against Fetterman the
same way they operated against Cinema. The playbook is there.
The problem for them is that the vibe has shifted
in the year is different, and the mainstream legacy media
has less of a monopoly on the information the voters receive.
(16:11):
And Fetterman, you know, he says he's going to stay
a Democrat. He has been approached by Republicans, will continue
to be approached by Republicans. He might do if I mean,
if I were him, I would do what Angus King
does a reverse of that and say I'm going to
be an independent, I'm going to caucus with the Republicans,
and I'm going to keep voting pro choice. I'm going
to keep voting, you know, pro large welfare state, a
(16:34):
sort of economic populist tone. I'm going to support Israel
and its existential battle. I'm going to support rational immigration
policy and basically be a centrist candidate. And you see
in his polling of Independence and Republicans it's working.
Speaker 1 (16:46):
Yeah. And the craziest thing is that he has an
abandoned night. I mean he's for his position on immigration
is to the left of where Bernie's was in twenty sixteen.
I mean it was Bernie Sanders said mass immigration was
a Koch Brothers pipe dream in twenty sixteen and was
much more pro worker. Now. The difference in Arizona Pennsylvania
(17:08):
is specifically, it's organized labor. Organized labors way more powerful
in Pennsylvania. Has organized labor abandoned abandoned, not Bernie abandoned
this difor there.
Speaker 2 (17:21):
Yeah, I think Fetterman has done a really good job
with the labor unions. There's obviously, right now a split
that you've had your finger on that. Political analysts can
see between sort of the public sector, you know, white
collar workers type unions they ask me is as well,
and the labor unions, you know, the steel guys who
(17:42):
are really into this knee pond deal, the auto workers,
the people that are actually rolling up their sleeves. I
think Fetterman's tone. I can't speak to his connections and
for you know, the official side and the conversations he's
having with teamsters and auto workers and steel workers, but
the tone fit for those hard hat guys. And my
(18:03):
money is on the more left leaning, more progressive unions
absconding and going with whatever viable more left you know
challenger there is, and that's going to be Connor whamb
or Brendan Boyle. I'd be surprised if it was him
or Doings.
Speaker 1 (18:18):
Boyle has taken some very right wing stances and immigration. Yeah,
it was just surprising because he's represents Philadelphia city proper.
Speaker 2 (18:26):
Yeah, but he represents a part of Philadelphia that I've
worked in that I came up in. Politically, I'm from
Philly that has swung it. It is the political realignment
and action. It's a you know, working class multi racial,
multi ethnic, multi religious, and these voters have swung right
to a significant degree over the last few cycles. And
in fact, we doubled our Republican representation in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
(18:49):
state capital, last November by flipping a state Senate seat.
It was the only state legislative flip to Republicans in
the state of a district of northeast Philly that's very
working class butts the Brian Fitzpatrick.
Speaker 1 (19:01):
But twenty five year olds who did it right.
Speaker 2 (19:04):
Yeah, Joe Pecozzy, Now.
Speaker 1 (19:07):
Yeah, I met him and he was like, I'm gonna
wear my sneakers like to the to the ground. And
I think he actually does a things. I think he
told me. He's like, I knocked on every door like
three times in the whole entire district. So what ultimately
Fetterman is looking at. The problem that Fetterman is going
to have in twenty twenty eight when he runs is
(19:29):
that he's gonta the same problem that Andrew Clonell has.
The middle the Democrats who were Democrats because their parents
were Democrats, because they've be long in a labor union,
are either dying, moving to a retirement home in Florida,
or their children are Republican. Like, there's no connection as
that movement has come and Virginia or Pennsylvania Democrats have
(19:51):
lost about five hundred thousand registered voter registration advantage over
the last four years. How does I mean the only
people who want to be Democrats at this point really
really also want to have trans children. There is a
very big like the event diagram is very overloaded at
this point. How does and I mean you said that
(20:15):
Fetterman would could possibly become an independent who votes in
the middle and hopefully gets an endorsement from somebody. How
does Fetterman also possibly avoid the shared brown How does
he avoid being the last Democrat left? Because everyone in
the state is a Demo, is a Republican statewide except
for the governor, lieutenant governor, and one senator.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
Yeah, I mean pens So there's a lot in there.
As far as Fetterman, he has a political vehicle problem,
which is basically, in the last century, you need one
of the major parties, you need to be their nominee,
and then you need to go into the general election
and you need to win. He has said he does
not want to switch to being a Republican. I don't
(20:58):
see a space. Although I think it would be smart
if the pagop said, hey, flip to being a Democrat
and we won't run anybody against you. That would be smart.
But there has not been somebody to successfully run up
the middle, even though in poll after poll, and you know,
anecdotal conversation after anecdotal conversation, people are craving sort of normal, pragmatic.
(21:19):
You know, people are problem solvers who are not bomb bass.
They're not throwing bombs from the left or right. So
his issue is not popularity, clearly, the Kynipiac pole you mentioned,
he's above water with a number of key groups. It's
the vehicle and the Democrats, I can guarantee you are
going to be successful at primarying him, and he's not
going to have the vehicle to run as John Fetterman
(21:41):
democratic nominee. And there's never really been somebody who's lost
that primary and then run as an independent with somebody
to the right and the left and succeeded. So he
would need to have that infrastructure behind him. And a
lot of the people who have talked and floated, you know,
the Larry Hogan's of the world, the Andrew Yangs of
the world haven't actually executed to that infrastructure. That being said,
(22:02):
we're living in a whole new political paradigm, so it's possible.
I think there's a path there for him. So that's
your question about Fetterman and his path to the future.
It's not about popularity and sort of his policies down
the middle. It's about the vehicle that it's going to
be attached to his name to be on the ballot
for voters. As far as Pennsylvania, it is truly a
purple state. Tinged blue. Twenty twenty four was a high
(22:26):
water mark. We took home all three Row offices, Attorney General,
Honor General, and Treasurer. We flipped the US Senate. See
it was the only US Senate flip in a swing
state in one of the seven swing states. Dave McCormick
won by a margin of just under sixteen thousand votes,
which is very, very teeny tiny. We do so we
(22:46):
have a lot of Republican representation right now, but it
really is a purple to left leaning state. Republicans are
making registration gains everywhere from Philadelphia to northeast Pennsylvania. Ancestrally
Democrat where we flipped a sort of progressive congressman old school,
you know, longstanding guy Matt Kart right out of office
for Rob Resnihan. And we have four congressional toss up
(23:11):
seats in twenty twenty six, so it's the most in
the country. So all eyes are going to continue being
on Pennsylvania. Republicans are making registration gains. As you've noted before,
the people who want to have a transkit are also
the people that think voting is a dogma and or
religious sacrament. Those people are going to be super activated voting.
So both sides have their relative advantages and it's really
(23:32):
going to be a you know, bloody fight.
Speaker 1 (23:34):
Okay, So two last two questions. One, what is going
on with the twenty twenty five Supreme Court collection, because
that is really important because these people will be probably
drawing the next map for the Pennsylvania congressional districts in
twenty thirty.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
Definitely, So that is a key question. That we have
an activist Democratic run state Supreme Court of five to
two majority in Pennsylvania. There's a question about retainer, which
a little confusing to the average voter. Effectively, were voting
whether to retain or not three Democratic justices based on
where the voting base is right now and the energy
(24:10):
is in the off year. My strong guess is that
Democrats vote yes on retention and that those justices prevail
and we have to move on to twenty twenty six
and work really hard to persuade more voters and turn
our base out. So that's what I would guess would
happen with the State Supreme Court.
Speaker 1 (24:26):
Okay, that's interesting. And then finally is I mean, there's
this saying that's online and I don't know how much
I believe in it. I kind of do, kind of
don't do the saying that Pennsylvania is the new Ohio
and New Jersey is the new Pennsylvania. Do you take
any stock in that? Like that Pennsylvania is just a
red state waiting to happen, and then New Jersey is
(24:47):
of purple state waiting to happen.
Speaker 2 (24:49):
I think that's a very cute thing to say. Pennsylvania
has exploding suburban affluent communities in the southeast color Counties
around Philadelphia, South central Pennsylvania around Lancaster Greater Harrisburg has exploded.
People who are commuting to d C. These are people
without roots in Pennsylvania. These are upper you know, bachelor's
(25:10):
degree at a minimum. Those populations are exploding. The rural
white population is declining and most you know, of our
two thirds of our counties are rural. So that helps Democrats.
What has helped Republicans and why we narrowly flip the
state in twenty twenty four is that working black and
Hispanic voters have moved to the right in significant numbers,
(25:31):
and working black voters their turnout has dropped significantly versus
the state as a whole. So it's it's countervailing trends.
Pennsylvania continues to be the Keystone state. It's the largest
swing state. It's going to remain that way. It encapsulates
a lot of the country's populations, problems, opportunities. I think
(25:51):
New Jersey is a very interesting state that is trending right,
But I think Pennsylvania is going to maintain its status.
And I'm not just saying that because I run a
business there.
Speaker 1 (25:58):
Yeah, now, well, listen doesn't count anymore. I think the
one thing that I agree with everything you said about
the Hispanics and the black vote and whatnot. I think
the thing that no one that people underestimate is that
in twenty sixteen. There was an article written for five
thirty eight that I remember called the Missing White Vote.
It was about I think there was like two or
three million non college educated white Americans in Pennsylvania who
(26:22):
were not even registered to vote. And when the governor
did automatic voter registration, weeple got their licenses. The number
of Republican registrations surged. Because it's the guy, it's, for
lack of a better phrase, but it's Billy Bob who's
never ready to vote all of a sudden has to
what is going to resist it? I'll be a Republican.
And I think that that also saw a huge pickup.
(26:44):
And also people reregister their licenses and they were voting
Republican where they were a Democrat, you know on paper.
They sat there and so they were like, oh, I'll
make the change. I don't think people understand how much
Josh Shapiro's position to make automatic voter registration backfired the
same way it happened for Kemp in Georgia, and reverse
got a lot of blacks who didn't vote to register
(27:05):
to vote and they vote a Democrat. In Pennsylvania, shap
Here got a lot of white people who were not
college educated to sit there and vote and registered Republicans.
So that's my opinion. I don't know if you have
a change on that.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
Yeah, I mean, you know, file it under high on
their own supply. That whole democratic everyone needs to vote.
Rock the vote turn out everyone Now they know that
that actually helps Republicans and it's going to keep helping
us both in the off year and the midterms and
in the next presidential So, you know, the situation nationally
has changed so much as we have a more working
class people who are not addicted to politics and being
(27:40):
online all the time. When we turn those people out
will win more elections as Republicans, and certainly on the margins,
those policies matter. One thing that's very interesting is that
black voter turnout has really collapsed in places like Harrisburg
and majority black wards in Philadelphia, in majority black wards
in Chester City in Pittsburgh has gone down from two
(28:02):
to ten percent since Obama's reelection in twenty twelve, while
the states turnout has surged by ten percent. So that's
a relative gap of up to twenty percent that is
dooming Democrats. And what's that telling us? It's the Canary
and the coal mine. Working black voters are saying, I'm
no longer engaged by either party, which is a catastrophe
if you're winning them ninety two to eight, and now
(28:25):
they've started to shift to the right. So working voters
of all backgrounds really are going to be the plus
and the magaplus coalition. They're going to determine whether we're
able to take home statewide wins and keep our congressional
seats that we flipped offs.
Speaker 1 (28:39):
I love the term magaplus. Never heard it, Albert. Where
people go to read more about are you and red
Bridge and what you guys do?
Speaker 2 (28:47):
You can find us online at your Redbridge dot com.
Our firm has put the political realignment into action very
uniquely in Pennsylvania nationally. We take all these trends that
you talk about every episode and put them into action
for campaigns and causes. Very excited about the work. So
check us out your Redbridge dot com and you can
find me on Twitter slash x, depending on whether you've
(29:08):
switched over your nomenclature at Albidelphia A L B Y
D E L P h I. A.
Speaker 1 (29:15):
Well, thank you so much for coming on this podcast.
Thanks for having me Ryan, You're listening to It's a
Numbers Game with Ryan Gradsky. We'll be right back now
it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment of this podcast.
If you want to be part of the Ask Me
Anything segment segment, email me Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast
dot com. That's Ryan at Numbers Plural Numbers Game Podcast
(29:37):
dot com. I love these emails. They really get the
show interesting and going, and please send them to me
whatever questions you could possibly have about basically anything. This
first question is from Gary from Wisconsin, a lifelong Mets fan.
He points out. He says, since you mentioned you might
do a non political episode of the show, which I
did on Thursday, he said, maybe you could talk with
(29:58):
the baseball playoffs. It might be interesting how many times
the team with the best record Brewers this year go
all the way? How often the wild card teams win?
It does pitching? I would do good hitting. I think
it'd be very timely, and I don't feel like looking
it up. Lol. Okay, Gary, I appreciate thank you for
your email. Thank you for listening. I cannot tell you
(30:21):
how little I know about professional sports. It would actually
baffle you. You would think, is this man being raised in America,
Like it is shocking how little I know. I grew
up as a Yankees fan, but like I liked players.
I loved Bernie Williams and Tina Martinez and I'm like
(30:42):
Chuck Knoblock, Derek Cheter, I mean, I love I grew
up with the Dynasty Yankees, the Yankees that won four
World Series in five years. But then they got old
and retired, and then I got old and stopped making
baseball a big part of my life. And now, like
if I get him, I did to a sporting event,
I go because like, oh, I love live sports. It's fun,
(31:04):
it's entertaining, but I don't watch it. I couldn't. I probably,
I mean there's a few players I probably know, but
I couldn't. I couldn't. I couldn't do it. I'm sorry.
I would give you. I mean, I would have to
be like literally reading a Google search because I don't
know enough about it and I would have to spend
so much time learning about it. I've done a sports
episode on this podcast before, but I had the Super Bowl,
(31:24):
and the money by the super Bowl is very interesting,
So maybe another super Bowl episode. I don't know, I'll
think about it. Email me if there's anyone else who
wants to talk about baseball, it would be comical. You'll
be like, Wow, this guy has no clue what he's
talking about, which would be true. I will tell you
a really quick story though. When I was a kid,
my dad works security for the Old Shay Stadium and
(31:47):
the Yankees and Mets were in the two thousand Subway
Series and he was like, hey, there's a section of
the stadium that they put handicap people in. There's no seas,
but you could just stand there. So he brought me
and my best friend at the time, a kid named
Rob who I haven't spoken to in a long time,
but they brought He brought us to the game and
(32:10):
he just like parked us in the handicap section and said,
here you are. You're at the World Series. It was
Game four, which was the one that they won on
because I think, sorry, game five, it's Game five because
Yankees won four games and I think that's one won
that season. But it was last game before the World
Series though, and let's come out of the World Series.
(32:32):
And we were there watching it live and we were like,
we're not going to stay here. I mean, my dad
wasn't watching us. We were just like you know, ten
year olds being like, hey, we're in Shay Stadium. Let's
just go wander and see if anyone stops. Let's go
see there's any empty seats, as if there would be
empty seats of the World Series. And back then pre
nine to eleven, pre electronic everything, there was physical ticket
(32:53):
still there was no one like there to scan. There
was like more security. So we walked all the way
up front. We've found two empty seats, but it turns
out that they were like people at the bathroom who
came back and they were like, you could like just
hang out with us and sit like and like sit
on our laps or whatever. I don't even know what
the help we said. We just hung out there though,
(33:15):
and there was like an actor from like melrose Place
or whatever who's sitting next to us. I forget, but
it was I remember the instance, but not all the
late signing details that I was only ten. But I
did go to a World Series game, a final World
Series game in the two thousand Subway series, and it
was it was great. So okay, that's my only story
about baseball I have for you. Next question comes from Kevin.
(33:36):
Kevin writes, I love Numbers Game. Listen to every episode.
Thank you, Kevin. I appreciate that so much. He I
also share my friends who are interested in particular subjects.
I know you know you said Mickey cows as a liberal,
but almost nothing, he says on Monday's podcast sounded liberal.
Most was common seemed right of center. Kevin, thank you
for listening. Yeah, Mickey's an old school liberal about a
(33:57):
lot of things. And immigration, He's always been a thing
that the left was. I don't say always, but in
the nineties in the eighties, the left a lot of
times was much better on securing the border than the
right was, because they were the party of like saysar Chavez,
and they were wanting to reduce illegal labor so they
(34:17):
wouldn't water, like, you know, bring down workers payments. And
they were the party of the unions, and the unions
all hated illegal immigrants. And then around the two thousands,
early two thousands is when you saw a lot of
these groups, like the environmental groups, by the way, were
all against illegal immigration because they didn't want mass over population.
They wanted to reduce immigration numbers. In fact, and in
(34:42):
the two thousands it became about racial identity, and so
they were all down with the browning of America. They
were all down with mass transition of the country from
a majority white country to a non majority white country
because the new immigrants were voting Democrat and they didn't
care about what that meant for the working class. They
were going to be the party of the educated bourgeois anyway. Yeah,
(35:06):
so it Mickey is a classical old liberal. There are
a few of them out there. There are a few
who still believe that.
Speaker 2 (35:13):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (35:14):
And it makes having a bad position on immigration as
a liberal makes every one of your other positions, you know,
not everyone, but almost every almost every other immig position,
like Nolan Void, like, you can't be an environmentalist and
want one hundred million people to move to the country.
You can't you get rid of well, people sleeping in
(35:35):
parts with people sleeping in you know, in our in
our wilderness. You have to build cities everywhere. You cannot
be a liberal and support ending the gap between the
poor and the and the and the rich, because you're
importing poor people every year. That gap keeps growing. Immigration
makes everything harder. Mass makers makes everything harder. And Democrats
(35:57):
used to know it and it said they did they
forgot it. And Mickey, he's an old school liberal who
hasn't and God bless him. He's a great guest and
a really good friend, so you should follow his work.
It's really really smart. He's a really smart guy. Anyway,
that concludes this episode. I hope you enjoy it. If
you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the
iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts. Give
(36:17):
me a five star review. If you're being generous, it
makes it much easier to find this podcast. And I
will speak to you guys on Thursday.
Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Gurdusky. Happy Monday.
There are just fifteen days to an upcoming twenty twenty
five local elections. If you haven't made a plan yet,
make a plan, vote by mail, vote on election day,
or vote early in person. Just make sure your voices
are heard early. Voting matters. Local elections matter, so make
a plan and get a vote. Before I go into
(00:25):
some numbers, I want to take a moment and brag
because I try very hard. I work really hard to
try to make my audience the most informed. They possibly
can be more informed than the average people who listen
to podcasts, and I have very very few talents in
this life. I was a great Brad Sales on The
Victoria's Secret. I was eighteen years old, and I'm really
(00:47):
good at predicting future political trends as they're about to happen,
but they haven't happened yet. On September eighth, more than
a month ago, I did a whole episode on how
the number one issue going to the elections of New
Jersey and Virginia was the rising cost of electricity because
of data centers. Data centers are responsible for two thirds
(01:08):
of the increasing electricity prices in New Jersey, and they've
added tens of millions of new homes worth of electricity
in the Virginia grid are then just a few days ago,
Dave Weigel, who writes for Semaphore, he wrote article colds
as electricity prices rise, both parties blamed data centers. Here's
a quote from the article. Fai Shakir, an advisor to
(01:30):
Senator Bernie Sanders and the founder of the progressive group
A More Perfect Union, said many Democrats were sleeping on
the issue that had ignited grassroots activists. More Perfect Union
has worked with data center opponents in multiple states, sharing
similar stories of worry about energy costs and resource ways.
Sanders has begun asking attendees of his quote fight oligarch
(01:53):
meetings about AI and data centers, and he found there's
very little political support for them. For any Democrat who
wants to think politically about opportunity. Shakir said that people
are way ahead of the politicians. He also goes on
the article. Wygel goes on in the article to sit
there and say, how we met local activists in Virginia
who are supporting the Democratic nominee for governor, but Republicans
(02:15):
locally who based on who's ever most against building new
data centers in Virginia the rise This is a rising
populist issue, one that people who are rooted in place,
people who have lived in the same place for decades,
or they plan to live there for decades, they're gonna
they move to a certain place because they're going to
grow their raise their children there, or maybe they've been
(02:36):
there for generations, will be increasingly angry over this issue.
Working class people will will have up till now, they
have always looked at the tech innovations in your life
as being fairly innocuous, even though we know that the
tech companies, you know, they steal our data that they
(02:59):
you know, sell our data that they they take our
photos for social media profiles that they're selling us. Right,
if you don't buy a product, you are the product.
That's the old phrase. But it has not negatively truly
affected anyone's life. It's going to be different when you
talk about loss of jobs from AI, young kids not
being able to get jobs, or it's just happening in
(03:21):
this economy right now, and increasing electricity prices and the
possibility of shortages of water in some of the Southwest
because of the Data center's cooling. Listen, you don't have
to take my word for it. Just remember I said it.
I said on September eighth. People are filing up with it.
Now I'm regurgitating it here in October. I'll talk about
(03:43):
it more. But this is a trend that will get bigger,
and Republicans better not be caught flat footed when it
is like a massive, massive issue that everyone's talking about. Okay,
Now to some numbers. After about a week or two
of just a drought, speaking of droughts, a drought in polling,
we've gotten some new numbers and it's very exciting. First
(04:06):
in New Jersey, there is a brand new Beacon Shaw
poll released by Fox News and it has Democrat Mikey
Cheryl leading Republican Jack Chitdarelli by five points. This is
a three point jump for Chittarelli in the last month.
Among what they've modeled as likely voters, Mikey Cheryl leads
Chitarelli fifty to forty five. That's down for Cheryl, what's
(04:29):
up for Chitarelly. That was fifty forty two last month
Among registered voters. Her lead is even smaller it's just
four points, forty eight to forty four among both registered
and likely voters. All the movements of undecided voters have
gone in Chittarelli's favor. Mikey Cheryl still leads, but Jack
Chitarelli seems to have a lot of things breaking in
(04:50):
his direction. Now, some of you may have caught this
on CNN. Harry Enton, who I actually anyone who works
at CNN. I respect him probably the most. I think
he does a really good job breaking down data to
make it understandable. He said that Chitarelli is doomed because
he ultimately needs to run over a bigger fraction of
Harris voters. Since Harris won the state by about six points.
(05:11):
He has a point, But I think that he's missing
something that is concerning Democrats in the state of New Jersey,
and that's voter enthusiasm. A fair Lie Dickerson and Quiney
Piac poll that was released this week, they were basically
in line with Fox News fair Line. Dickerson had Mikey
Cheryl leading by seven, Quinny Piac had our leading by six,
(05:32):
very similar to the Fox News pole. But one thing
that they found was that there is a serious double
digit gap in excitement over who they're voting for. Fifty
five percent of Jack Ciarelli voters say they are very
enthusiastic to support him, compared to only forty two percent
of Sharyl voters. That's a thirteen point gap. And there
(05:53):
is a fourteen and sorry, and fourteen percent of Mikey
Cheryl voters say they are not enthusiastic about voting compared
to just eight percent of Jack Chitarelli voters. We're seeing
this in the data in the mail in voting. A
key group of people that Mikey Cheryl has spent the
entire year trying to get excited to convinced to vote
for her, that were support of her in the primaries
(06:16):
has been minorities. Minorities did not want this ritual white
lady from a very elite town being their nominee, and
they are dragging their feet to said they're in vote.
My buddy on Twitter named Cinec, he breaks down data
and needs a great job of it. He found that
precincts in New Jersey that are majority white are voting
(06:37):
on average ten to twelve points at a greater frequency
in the mail in voting than districts that are majority
minorities either majority Black, majority Hispanic majority Asian, majority Black
districts are voting at twenty two percent. Twenty two percent
returned their ballads, twenty percent of Hispanics have returned their ballads,
and just twenty percent of Asians have returned their ballads.
(06:59):
That's a big difference compared to the thirty two percent
of white voters in voters in white majority precincts whoever
turned their ballads. My point has always been, if they're
not anxious to return their ballad when it's mailed to
their home, what are the chances that all the other
(07:20):
people are going to be excited enough to leave their
house on election day or early to get out into
go vote. If it rains, if it snows, if they
have a flat tire, if their kid is sneezing, whatever
the case may be, that is not a great indicator.
So it's not that Chitarelly has to ruin over Harris voters.
Harris voters have to show up, and right now in
(07:42):
the mail in data, it looks like there is a
little reluctancy. Now it's not all goodness for Chitarelly because
Cheryl Mikey Cheryl is building up a massive voter advantage
in the mail in ballads. She has sat there and
has a one hundred and thirty There's one hundred and
thirty thousand more Democrats who have submitted up mail in
ballad than Republicans, so she's going to go on election
(08:03):
Day with one hundred and thirty thousand vote lead. In
both the quenty piac and the Fox News poll and
the fair Line Dicker simple mind you, Chittarelli has a
lead among independents, but it's not enough that he would
have to have to win. In all the polls, he
has a mid single digit lead, and in the polls
(08:23):
previous that had him tied, he would need a twenty
point lead, right, which is of course possible. But these
later polls that show him in a small single digit deficit,
that's because he's not doing what he needs to do
among independences. Set there and win. I also want to
mention that there's a Republican leaning firm named Insider Advantage
that also came out with a poll that found Mikey
(08:45):
Cheryl leading, but she was only leading by one point
in that pole. It's a relatively new firm, so I'm
not putting a ton of stock in it because I
don't know enough about their fundamentals. They were very, very
good in twenty twenty four. They're one of the most
act polsters in twenty twenty four, so I'm even mentioning them,
but I want to see more before I sit there
and say, oh, this is the poll you should trust. Now,
(09:09):
just looking at the fundamentals of the state, Mikey Cheryl
has the advantage of voter registration. There are still more
Democrats than there are Republicans. Even though that number is shrinking,
there are still eight hundred and fifty five thousand more
Democrats than Republicans. That's one hundred and fifty thousand more
Democrats than where there when Chris Christy was first elected
in two thousand and nine. It will be very interesting
(09:29):
to see on November first, if voters if Republicans are
gaining more new voters than Democrats are Yet again, they've
been doing that almost every single month. On the fundamentals,
Mikey Cheryl, the Democrat has the advantage, but all the
momentum is going to Chittarelly. We will have to see
if there's enough time and enough things to break in
(09:50):
his direction before election day. As for Virginia, we only
have a few polls and they are mostly Republican leaning firms.
There's a Trifogar poll which was very accurate in twenty
twenty one, not so accurate in twenty twenty two, accurate
in twenty twenty four. They have shown a sizeable momentum
moving in favor of Republican Attorney General Kennet Jason Miarez.
(10:13):
He has a solid five point lead over Democrat Jay Jones,
who you know is very He's got scandaled in j Jones.
I watched the debate. It was fine, but it was
actually very well respectable. Miara said, the election is a
referendum on j Jones and his horrible text messages. Jones
said the election was about Trump. He actually mentioned Trump's
name almost forty times in a one hour debate. Obviously,
(10:36):
he wanted Democrats to come home and ignore everything he's
said in those horrible text messages. The poll also found
that in the race for Lieutenant governor, that the race
was essentially tied and that wins Sears was only down
two points. That ne Lissen Trafalgar has nailed a lot
of races that no one else saw coming. I'm not
(10:56):
dismissing them as a poll. I want to see something
else that shows this monumental swing towards Republicans before I
sit there and say, guys, this is you know, it
could happen. I don't know that it's an outliar. It's
worth paying attention to. It's a piece of data. I
want to see more. I was on the klam Buck
Show last week and Clay asked me our rather. Buck
(11:18):
asked me if these elections from Mandani and New York,
and the race in New Jersey and the race in
Virginia were signs of the midterms. I said, no, they're
not signs of the midterms. They're signs of the twenty
twenty eight election cycle. Because the only candidate you see
not losing steam at the very end is the socialist
candidate is Mundani in New York. He's been picking up
seen in some of these polls. The acceptable Democratic candidates
(11:41):
in New Jersey and Virginia, they're having to be bailed
out and have that reinforcements come save them. You know
Obama's campaign in Virginia. Democrats are pouring millions of dollars
into New Jersey. In the last minute. More than anything, though,
I think this gives insight into the titular swing state
of Pennsylvania and John Fetterman and whether or not he
can survive a primary challenge, whether he might become a Republican.
(12:04):
I will explore that next. With me on today's episode
is Albert Eisenberg. He is the principal of the red
of Redbridge. Let me try again. I'm not the red Bridge. Okay?
With me on today's episode is out, I'm sorry. With
me on today's episode is Albert Eisenberg. He is the
(12:24):
principal at Redbridge. It's a political firm in Pennsylvania that
has worked on a number of big races and does
outreach with groups that are flirting with being a Republican.
But I haven't given a hard commitment yet. Is that
a fair fair description, Albert?
Speaker 2 (12:38):
Yeah? The term I'm using in my business is they rent, rented,
but did not buy. Yes, well, I like flirting.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Yeah, well I think that's I think that's a little
more interesting, So Albert. There. So, first of all, there
was a story in Axios about Democrats preparing for a
primary challenge against John Fetterman and a Quinny pag poll
that was released a few weeks ago looked at Fetterman
and he was very popular in Pennsylvania, with exception of
one group Democrats. Democrats have really turned on John Fetterman,
(13:10):
which is strange given how much he votes with the party.
What is the story Npare Democrats really organized and committed
to this primary challenge?
Speaker 2 (13:20):
Well, the story nationally is that we're living in an
era of esthetic politics. It is not that he votes
with Democrats. It's that he sounds like an apostate when
he talks about immigration specifically and the Israel Palestine war.
So Fetterman's What people like about Fetterman who are not
(13:41):
liberal Democrats is that he's willing to buck his party
and speak sort of reality focused, unabashed messages on pretty
key central issues where Democrats are very out of step
with the nation as a whole. And that's a problem
with the Democratic base and the media sort of echo
chamber has yet to keyed up against him. The obvious
(14:02):
parallel is going to be what the Democrats did to
Kristen Cinema, who ended up abdicating her seat. And now
we have a more sort of liberal bomb thrower in
Ruben Diego and Arizona flirted with, you know, the independent run,
but ultimately there wasn't a path there. If the Democratic
primary was held today in Pennsylvania, Fetterman would lose. And
there are ambitious younger Democratic congressmen, three of them are
(14:25):
named in that piece by Holly Otter byne at Axios,
who are angling from different parts of the state to
replace Fetterman and primary him. And we'll have to see
what he decides to do before twenty twenty eight.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
Well, it's crazy because Betterman was the Burning bro like
this was. This was arguably Fetterman's election to the Senate
was arguably the Bernie Bros' biggest victory electoral victory. They
actually a statewide elected which they had never accomplished before
in the Senate. And because I guess besides Bernie obviously,
but AOC all these other members of the squad, they're
(15:01):
all House members. There's really no senators like that. Eliza
Warren is not part of the squad. She's just you know,
she just she enjoys mental masturbation a lot, but she's
not part of the squad. There are there are, But
Fetterman was an open burning supporter, and I think that
I think the vengeance for Fetterman comes because the betrayal
(15:23):
feels so real, the fact that we have aren't.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
Israel, Yes certainly. I mean the people that ran his
campaign were the most progressive aggressive. They had no qualms
about papering over his obvious health issues when he had
a stroke, just as a nasty Republican primary was resolving itself. Now,
he's obviously in a much better place mentally when you
listen to him now versus a few years ago. But
(15:47):
then all these stories have leaked about his mental health.
There's cognitive abilities, so they have no you know, they
view it as a betrayal. It sticks in their crawl
and they're going to try and operate against Fetterman the
same way they operated against Cinema. The playbook is there.
The problem for them is that the vibe has shifted
in the year is different, and the mainstream legacy media
has less of a monopoly on the information the voters receive.
(16:11):
And Fetterman, you know, he says he's going to stay
a Democrat. He has been approached by Republicans, will continue
to be approached by Republicans. He might do if I mean,
if I were him, I would do what Angus King
does a reverse of that and say I'm going to
be an independent, I'm going to caucus with the Republicans,
and I'm going to keep voting pro choice. I'm going
to keep voting, you know, pro large welfare state, a
(16:34):
sort of economic populist tone. I'm going to support Israel
and its existential battle. I'm going to support rational immigration
policy and basically be a centrist candidate. And you see
in his polling of Independence and Republicans it's working.
Speaker 1 (16:46):
Yeah. And the craziest thing is that he has an
abandoned night. I mean he's for his position on immigration
is to the left of where Bernie's was in twenty sixteen.
I mean it was Bernie Sanders said mass immigration was
a Koch Brothers pipe dream in twenty sixteen and was
much more pro worker. Now. The difference in Arizona Pennsylvania
(17:08):
is specifically, it's organized labor. Organized labors way more powerful
in Pennsylvania. Has organized labor abandoned abandoned, not Bernie abandoned
this difor there.
Speaker 2 (17:21):
Yeah, I think Fetterman has done a really good job
with the labor unions. There's obviously, right now a split
that you've had your finger on that. Political analysts can
see between sort of the public sector, you know, white
collar workers type unions they ask me is as well,
and the labor unions, you know, the steel guys who
(17:42):
are really into this knee pond deal, the auto workers,
the people that are actually rolling up their sleeves. I
think Fetterman's tone. I can't speak to his connections and
for you know, the official side and the conversations he's
having with teamsters and auto workers and steel workers, but
the tone fit for those hard hat guys. And my
(18:03):
money is on the more left leaning, more progressive unions
absconding and going with whatever viable more left you know
challenger there is, and that's going to be Connor whamb
or Brendan Boyle. I'd be surprised if it was him
or Doings.
Speaker 1 (18:18):
Boyle has taken some very right wing stances and immigration. Yeah,
it was just surprising because he's represents Philadelphia city proper.
Speaker 2 (18:26):
Yeah, but he represents a part of Philadelphia that I've
worked in that I came up in. Politically, I'm from
Philly that has swung it. It is the political realignment
and action. It's a you know, working class multi racial,
multi ethnic, multi religious, and these voters have swung right
to a significant degree over the last few cycles. And
in fact, we doubled our Republican representation in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
(18:49):
state capital, last November by flipping a state Senate seat.
It was the only state legislative flip to Republicans in
the state of a district of northeast Philly that's very
working class butts the Brian Fitzpatrick.
Speaker 1 (19:01):
But twenty five year olds who did it right.
Speaker 2 (19:04):
Yeah, Joe Pecozzy, Now.
Speaker 1 (19:07):
Yeah, I met him and he was like, I'm gonna
wear my sneakers like to the to the ground. And
I think he actually does a things. I think he
told me. He's like, I knocked on every door like
three times in the whole entire district. So what ultimately
Fetterman is looking at. The problem that Fetterman is going
to have in twenty twenty eight when he runs is
(19:29):
that he's gonta the same problem that Andrew Clonell has.
The middle the Democrats who were Democrats because their parents
were Democrats, because they've be long in a labor union,
are either dying, moving to a retirement home in Florida,
or their children are Republican. Like, there's no connection as
that movement has come and Virginia or Pennsylvania Democrats have
(19:51):
lost about five hundred thousand registered voter registration advantage over
the last four years. How does I mean the only
people who want to be Democrats at this point really
really also want to have trans children. There is a
very big like the event diagram is very overloaded at
this point. How does and I mean you said that
(20:15):
Fetterman would could possibly become an independent who votes in
the middle and hopefully gets an endorsement from somebody. How
does Fetterman also possibly avoid the shared brown How does
he avoid being the last Democrat left? Because everyone in
the state is a Demo, is a Republican statewide except
for the governor, lieutenant governor, and one senator.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
Yeah, I mean pens So there's a lot in there.
As far as Fetterman, he has a political vehicle problem,
which is basically, in the last century, you need one
of the major parties, you need to be their nominee,
and then you need to go into the general election
and you need to win. He has said he does
not want to switch to being a Republican. I don't
(20:58):
see a space. Although I think it would be smart
if the pagop said, hey, flip to being a Democrat
and we won't run anybody against you. That would be smart.
But there has not been somebody to successfully run up
the middle, even though in poll after poll, and you know,
anecdotal conversation after anecdotal conversation, people are craving sort of normal, pragmatic.
(21:19):
You know, people are problem solvers who are not bomb bass.
They're not throwing bombs from the left or right. So
his issue is not popularity, clearly, the Kynipiac pole you mentioned,
he's above water with a number of key groups. It's
the vehicle and the Democrats, I can guarantee you are
going to be successful at primarying him, and he's not
going to have the vehicle to run as John Fetterman
(21:41):
democratic nominee. And there's never really been somebody who's lost
that primary and then run as an independent with somebody
to the right and the left and succeeded. So he
would need to have that infrastructure behind him. And a
lot of the people who have talked and floated, you know,
the Larry Hogan's of the world, the Andrew Yangs of
the world haven't actually executed to that infrastructure. That being said,
(22:02):
we're living in a whole new political paradigm, so it's possible.
I think there's a path there for him. So that's
your question about Fetterman and his path to the future.
It's not about popularity and sort of his policies down
the middle. It's about the vehicle that it's going to
be attached to his name to be on the ballot
for voters. As far as Pennsylvania, it is truly a
purple state. Tinged blue. Twenty twenty four was a high
(22:26):
water mark. We took home all three Row offices, Attorney General,
Honor General, and Treasurer. We flipped the US Senate. See
it was the only US Senate flip in a swing
state in one of the seven swing states. Dave McCormick
won by a margin of just under sixteen thousand votes,
which is very, very teeny tiny. We do so we
(22:46):
have a lot of Republican representation right now, but it
really is a purple to left leaning state. Republicans are
making registration gains everywhere from Philadelphia to northeast Pennsylvania. Ancestrally
Democrat where we flipped a sort of progressive congressman old school,
you know, longstanding guy Matt Kart right out of office
for Rob Resnihan. And we have four congressional toss up
(23:11):
seats in twenty twenty six, so it's the most in
the country. So all eyes are going to continue being
on Pennsylvania. Republicans are making registration gains. As you've noted before,
the people who want to have a transkit are also
the people that think voting is a dogma and or
religious sacrament. Those people are going to be super activated voting.
So both sides have their relative advantages and it's really
(23:32):
going to be a you know, bloody fight.
Speaker 1 (23:34):
Okay, So two last two questions. One, what is going
on with the twenty twenty five Supreme Court collection, because
that is really important because these people will be probably
drawing the next map for the Pennsylvania congressional districts in
twenty thirty.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
Definitely, So that is a key question. That we have
an activist Democratic run state Supreme Court of five to
two majority in Pennsylvania. There's a question about retainer, which
a little confusing to the average voter. Effectively, were voting
whether to retain or not three Democratic justices based on
where the voting base is right now and the energy
(24:10):
is in the off year. My strong guess is that
Democrats vote yes on retention and that those justices prevail
and we have to move on to twenty twenty six
and work really hard to persuade more voters and turn
our base out. So that's what I would guess would
happen with the State Supreme Court.
Speaker 1 (24:26):
Okay, that's interesting. And then finally is I mean, there's
this saying that's online and I don't know how much
I believe in it. I kind of do, kind of
don't do the saying that Pennsylvania is the new Ohio
and New Jersey is the new Pennsylvania. Do you take
any stock in that? Like that Pennsylvania is just a
red state waiting to happen, and then New Jersey is
(24:47):
of purple state waiting to happen.
Speaker 2 (24:49):
I think that's a very cute thing to say. Pennsylvania
has exploding suburban affluent communities in the southeast color Counties
around Philadelphia, South central Pennsylvania around Lancaster Greater Harrisburg has exploded.
People who are commuting to d C. These are people
without roots in Pennsylvania. These are upper you know, bachelor's
(25:10):
degree at a minimum. Those populations are exploding. The rural
white population is declining and most you know, of our
two thirds of our counties are rural. So that helps Democrats.
What has helped Republicans and why we narrowly flip the
state in twenty twenty four is that working black and
Hispanic voters have moved to the right in significant numbers,
(25:31):
and working black voters their turnout has dropped significantly versus
the state as a whole. So it's it's countervailing trends.
Pennsylvania continues to be the Keystone state. It's the largest
swing state. It's going to remain that way. It encapsulates
a lot of the country's populations, problems, opportunities. I think
(25:51):
New Jersey is a very interesting state that is trending right,
But I think Pennsylvania is going to maintain its status.
And I'm not just saying that because I run a
business there.
Speaker 1 (25:58):
Yeah, now, well, listen doesn't count anymore. I think the
one thing that I agree with everything you said about
the Hispanics and the black vote and whatnot. I think
the thing that no one that people underestimate is that
in twenty sixteen. There was an article written for five
thirty eight that I remember called the Missing White Vote.
It was about I think there was like two or
three million non college educated white Americans in Pennsylvania who
(26:22):
were not even registered to vote. And when the governor
did automatic voter registration, weeple got their licenses. The number
of Republican registrations surged. Because it's the guy, it's, for
lack of a better phrase, but it's Billy Bob who's
never ready to vote all of a sudden has to
what is going to resist it? I'll be a Republican.
And I think that that also saw a huge pickup.
(26:44):
And also people reregister their licenses and they were voting
Republican where they were a Democrat, you know on paper.
They sat there and so they were like, oh, I'll
make the change. I don't think people understand how much
Josh Shapiro's position to make automatic voter registration backfired the
same way it happened for Kemp in Georgia, and reverse
got a lot of blacks who didn't vote to register
(27:05):
to vote and they vote a Democrat. In Pennsylvania, shap
Here got a lot of white people who were not
college educated to sit there and vote and registered Republicans.
So that's my opinion. I don't know if you have
a change on that.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
Yeah, I mean, you know, file it under high on
their own supply. That whole democratic everyone needs to vote.
Rock the vote turn out everyone Now they know that
that actually helps Republicans and it's going to keep helping
us both in the off year and the midterms and
in the next presidential So, you know, the situation nationally
has changed so much as we have a more working
class people who are not addicted to politics and being
(27:40):
online all the time. When we turn those people out
will win more elections as Republicans, and certainly on the margins,
those policies matter. One thing that's very interesting is that
black voter turnout has really collapsed in places like Harrisburg
and majority black wards in Philadelphia, in majority black wards
in Chester City in Pittsburgh has gone down from two
(28:02):
to ten percent since Obama's reelection in twenty twelve, while
the states turnout has surged by ten percent. So that's
a relative gap of up to twenty percent that is
dooming Democrats. And what's that telling us? It's the Canary
and the coal mine. Working black voters are saying, I'm
no longer engaged by either party, which is a catastrophe
if you're winning them ninety two to eight, and now
(28:25):
they've started to shift to the right. So working voters
of all backgrounds really are going to be the plus
and the magaplus coalition. They're going to determine whether we're
able to take home statewide wins and keep our congressional
seats that we flipped offs.
Speaker 1 (28:39):
I love the term magaplus. Never heard it, Albert. Where
people go to read more about are you and red
Bridge and what you guys do?
Speaker 2 (28:47):
You can find us online at your Redbridge dot com.
Our firm has put the political realignment into action very
uniquely in Pennsylvania nationally. We take all these trends that
you talk about every episode and put them into action
for campaigns and causes. Very excited about the work. So
check us out your Redbridge dot com and you can
find me on Twitter slash x, depending on whether you've
(29:08):
switched over your nomenclature at Albidelphia A L B Y
D E L P h I. A.
Speaker 1 (29:15):
Well, thank you so much for coming on this podcast.
Thanks for having me Ryan, You're listening to It's a
Numbers Game with Ryan Gradsky. We'll be right back now
it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment of this podcast.
If you want to be part of the Ask Me
Anything segment segment, email me Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast
dot com. That's Ryan at Numbers Plural Numbers Game Podcast
(29:37):
dot com. I love these emails. They really get the
show interesting and going, and please send them to me
whatever questions you could possibly have about basically anything. This
first question is from Gary from Wisconsin, a lifelong Mets fan.
He points out. He says, since you mentioned you might
do a non political episode of the show, which I
did on Thursday, he said, maybe you could talk with
(29:58):
the baseball playoffs. It might be interesting how many times
the team with the best record Brewers this year go
all the way? How often the wild card teams win?
It does pitching? I would do good hitting. I think
it'd be very timely, and I don't feel like looking
it up. Lol. Okay, Gary, I appreciate thank you for
your email. Thank you for listening. I cannot tell you
(30:21):
how little I know about professional sports. It would actually
baffle you. You would think, is this man being raised in America,
Like it is shocking how little I know. I grew
up as a Yankees fan, but like I liked players.
I loved Bernie Williams and Tina Martinez and I'm like
(30:42):
Chuck Knoblock, Derek Cheter, I mean, I love I grew
up with the Dynasty Yankees, the Yankees that won four
World Series in five years. But then they got old
and retired, and then I got old and stopped making
baseball a big part of my life. And now, like
if I get him, I did to a sporting event,
I go because like, oh, I love live sports. It's fun,
(31:04):
it's entertaining, but I don't watch it. I couldn't. I probably,
I mean there's a few players I probably know, but
I couldn't. I couldn't. I couldn't do it. I'm sorry.
I would give you. I mean, I would have to
be like literally reading a Google search because I don't
know enough about it and I would have to spend
so much time learning about it. I've done a sports
episode on this podcast before, but I had the Super Bowl,
(31:24):
and the money by the super Bowl is very interesting,
So maybe another super Bowl episode. I don't know, I'll
think about it. Email me if there's anyone else who
wants to talk about baseball, it would be comical. You'll
be like, Wow, this guy has no clue what he's
talking about, which would be true. I will tell you
a really quick story though. When I was a kid,
my dad works security for the Old Shay Stadium and
(31:47):
the Yankees and Mets were in the two thousand Subway
Series and he was like, hey, there's a section of
the stadium that they put handicap people in. There's no seas,
but you could just stand there. So he brought me
and my best friend at the time, a kid named
Rob who I haven't spoken to in a long time,
but they brought He brought us to the game and
(32:10):
he just like parked us in the handicap section and said,
here you are. You're at the World Series. It was
Game four, which was the one that they won on
because I think, sorry, game five, it's Game five because
Yankees won four games and I think that's one won
that season. But it was last game before the World
Series though, and let's come out of the World Series.
(32:32):
And we were there watching it live and we were like,
we're not going to stay here. I mean, my dad
wasn't watching us. We were just like you know, ten
year olds being like, hey, we're in Shay Stadium. Let's
just go wander and see if anyone stops. Let's go
see there's any empty seats, as if there would be
empty seats of the World Series. And back then pre
nine to eleven, pre electronic everything, there was physical ticket
(32:53):
still there was no one like there to scan. There
was like more security. So we walked all the way
up front. We've found two empty seats, but it turns
out that they were like people at the bathroom who
came back and they were like, you could like just
hang out with us and sit like and like sit
on our laps or whatever. I don't even know what
the help we said. We just hung out there though,
(33:15):
and there was like an actor from like melrose Place
or whatever who's sitting next to us. I forget, but
it was I remember the instance, but not all the
late signing details that I was only ten. But I
did go to a World Series game, a final World
Series game in the two thousand Subway series, and it
was it was great. So okay, that's my only story
about baseball I have for you. Next question comes from Kevin.
(33:36):
Kevin writes, I love Numbers Game. Listen to every episode.
Thank you, Kevin. I appreciate that so much. He I
also share my friends who are interested in particular subjects.
I know you know you said Mickey cows as a liberal,
but almost nothing, he says on Monday's podcast sounded liberal.
Most was common seemed right of center. Kevin, thank you
for listening. Yeah, Mickey's an old school liberal about a
(33:57):
lot of things. And immigration, He's always been a thing
that the left was. I don't say always, but in
the nineties in the eighties, the left a lot of
times was much better on securing the border than the
right was, because they were the party of like saysar Chavez,
and they were wanting to reduce illegal labor so they
(34:17):
wouldn't water, like, you know, bring down workers payments. And
they were the party of the unions, and the unions
all hated illegal immigrants. And then around the two thousands,
early two thousands is when you saw a lot of
these groups, like the environmental groups, by the way, were
all against illegal immigration because they didn't want mass over population.
They wanted to reduce immigration numbers. In fact, and in
(34:42):
the two thousands it became about racial identity, and so
they were all down with the browning of America. They
were all down with mass transition of the country from
a majority white country to a non majority white country
because the new immigrants were voting Democrat and they didn't
care about what that meant for the working class. They
were going to be the party of the educated bourgeois anyway. Yeah,
(35:06):
so it Mickey is a classical old liberal. There are
a few of them out there. There are a few
who still believe that.
Speaker 2 (35:13):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (35:14):
And it makes having a bad position on immigration as
a liberal makes every one of your other positions, you know,
not everyone, but almost every almost every other immig position,
like Nolan Void, like, you can't be an environmentalist and
want one hundred million people to move to the country.
You can't you get rid of well, people sleeping in
(35:35):
parts with people sleeping in you know, in our in
our wilderness. You have to build cities everywhere. You cannot
be a liberal and support ending the gap between the
poor and the and the and the rich, because you're
importing poor people every year. That gap keeps growing. Immigration
makes everything harder. Mass makers makes everything harder. And Democrats
(35:57):
used to know it and it said they did they
forgot it. And Mickey, he's an old school liberal who
hasn't and God bless him. He's a great guest and
a really good friend, so you should follow his work.
It's really really smart. He's a really smart guy. Anyway,
that concludes this episode. I hope you enjoy it. If
you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the
iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts. Give
(36:17):
me a five star review. If you're being generous, it
makes it much easier to find this podcast. And I
will speak to you guys on Thursday.
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show News
Hosts And Creators
Clay Travis
Buck Sexton
Show Links
WebsiteNewsletterPopular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
CrimeLess: Hillbilly Heist
It’s 1996 in rural North Carolina, and an oddball crew makes history when they pull off America’s third largest cash heist. But it’s all downhill from there. Join host Johnny Knoxville as he unspools a wild and woolly tale about a group of regular ‘ol folks who risked it all for a chance at a better life. CrimeLess: Hillbilly Heist answers the question: what would you do with 17.3 million dollars? The answer includes diamond rings, mansions, velvet Elvis paintings, plus a run for the border, murder-for-hire-plots, and FBI busts.