December 4, 2025 • 22 mins
In this episode, Ryan breaks down the numbers behind the latest political shifts shaping 2026. Using fresh data from Tennessee’s 7th District special election, he examines why Republicans continue to hold strong in gerrymandered districts and where Democratic “overperformance” may have hit its ceiling. Ryan also tackles the myths around abortion as a top voter motivator, explains the growing problem of insurance “social inflation,” and puts current trends in the context of long-term Trump-era realignments. It's a Numbers Game is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Monday & Thursday.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Welcome back to a numbers game with Brian Groski. Thank
you guys for being here. Happy Thursday. Remember how I
mentioned to you in my last episode that we're coming
at the end of the year, so Spotify and Apple
Playlist where it's going to put their end of the
year numbers. Well I said that on Monday and came
out on Wednesday that they said your number one podcast
and song and singer and all of us artists were
(00:25):
and they had interesting Spotify had an interesting thing this
year they've never done before was they guessed your age
by what music you listen to. They guess my age
was sixty eight years old. I am. I am not hip.
I guess like I am I am. I guess I
need to diversify. There's a lot of classic rock on
my playlist from Ozzy Osbourne and Linda Ronstant and Fleetwood
(00:49):
Mac and the Carpenters and Bruce Springsteen. Like, there's a
lot of that going on. I might need to like
just spruce it up with some Taylor Swift or Sabrina Carpenters.
I don't know, but sixty eight was kind of rough
to get Social Security numbers thrown at you. That that's
where you're a that's where your mind is. So I
thought it was funny. Hopefully my podcast came into your
top five list. If it hasn't, please like and subscribe
(01:11):
to this podcast and the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube,
wherever you get this podcast. I love to be your
top five. Come next year, we have a lot of
great end of the year episodes. I'm so excited with
a big announcement coming next year at the the end
of this month rather and the game next year big announcement.
But we have a lot of fun episodes. Because it's December,
there's only so much politics people can really sit there
(01:33):
and take. So we're gonna do a lot of politics.
But we have an episode with a priest right around
Christmas time, my priest actually, so that'll be a fun,
interesting conversation. We'll have one of my consultant friends who
are gonna come on to talk about what it's like
to run a campaign, to be part of a campaign,
what it's like to win. We have questions from the
audience that we're going to ask for them, and also
I'm gonna have this is so great, so accept this.
(01:55):
I have a lot of not a lot. I have
a few gen Z employees. I think I have like
seven ENZ employees. So I'm actually going to hold a
contest on this podcast with three of them. I'm going
to offer them cash to quiz them about millennial and
gen X culture and to see if who can get
it right. And it's going to be great. I'm so
excited for it. Let the public roasting begin. They know
(02:17):
what they're involved with like this, so it's on me
too hard. It's going to be very basic stuff, but
I'm very much looking forward to seeing how much they
know about the world that you know, existed before streaming.
So I'm very very excited. Anyway, let's talk about politics
for a second. There was a special election in the
Tennessee seventh Congressional district where Republican Matthew Van Epps won
(02:38):
by a nine point margin against Democrat often Ben I
think is how prognis her name. She's a little bit crazy. Anyway,
he won fifty four to forty five. So congratulations to
the future Congressman Matt Van Apps. Now it was a
solid victory. Nine points is a decent margin, but remember
it's a district that Trump won by twenty two points.
(02:58):
Last November not a great place where you want to
be for Republicans in this one special election, but it
also is not where you want to be when you
look at the overall change that's been happening in all
these special elections throughout this year. This was just a
thirteen point swing towards the Democrats, but it spells what's
coming up in the future and what's been going on
(03:19):
the pass and where voter sentiment is. Now here's the
thing of why now normally, listen, you shouldn't put too
much emphasis in any one special election. This election was
different because it had a mid term turnout. In twenty
twenty two Congress and Mark Green, the Republican, won his
seat by twenty two points. It was one hundred and
(03:40):
eighty eight hundred and twenty two votes. In this election,
where Matthew Van Epps won by nine points, there was
one hundred and seventy nine eight hundred and ninety nine votes,
almost basically a one thousand z difference. It was a
mid term turnout for a special election. The Democrat candidate,
who was very far left, received eighty one thousand votes,
(04:01):
that's sixty six percent of all the votes. Kamala Harris won,
while Van EPP's got about forty nine to forty eight
percent of all the votes that Trump received in the district.
Not great, and it's just not a turnout thing. Turnout
is very very high for Democrats. Right, Democrats are super engaged,
but there's clearly movement among independent voters who are very
(04:24):
worried about the economy and dealing with the aftermaths of
Biden's inflation. It is like, you know that smell that's
lingering after a couple of days of having food left
out or spoil milk, like it's it's I think voters
really believe Trump was going to reduce overall prices, not
just slow inflation down, which he has been successful at,
but reduce prices and go to maybe a deflationary period
(04:46):
for a little while. That clearly hasn't happened. The job
market is very worrisome for young people. We've had tons
of episodes about this kind of content. Now, there have
been sixty two special elections in the last year, both
for state house states, Senate and Congress, right state legislative
and Congression, and Democrats have overperformed in twenty twenty four
to sixty two special elections by an average of eleven points.
(05:10):
That is historic by any single party in recent history. Right,
that is a lot, and no amount of mid decade
jerrymandering is going to fix it unless I guess if
the VRA Section twelve is over Section two Rothers overturned,
and we have states like Georgia and Alabama, Mississippi all
jumping in in Florida Redistrict, all their states unless that happens,
(05:34):
And I still think even if that happens, it's not
enough to sit there and stop a Democratic way from
taking the House. I didn't think it was going to
be this extreme. A couple like a couple of weeks ago,
were in a couple of months ago. But I looked
at the twenty seventeen to twenty eighteen special elections and
Democrats that year, and that gigantic wave only led in
(05:54):
specials by six points. Remember right now, it's by eleven points.
If the midterm election were to happen today, it is
almost guaranteed that Democrats will perform at nearly the same percentage,
if not greater, than they received performed in twenty eighteen.
The good thing for Republicans is that the election isn't tomorrow,
and things can change. And let me make a point
(06:16):
about the recent past year. Twenty twenty three, there were
dozens of special elections for both state legislature and Congress,
and Democrats overperformed by almost four points, right, four points
from where they had performed in twenty twenty, which was
already a very good year for Democrats. The following year,
in twenty twenty four, there were also dozens of special
elections ahead of the presidential election, and Republicans outperform their
(06:38):
performance in twenty twenty by two points, So there was
a six point swing between just one year in favor
of Republicans ahead of the presidential election, a five to
six point swing. If it happened next year ahead of
the midterms, it wouldn't be enough to save the House Republicans,
but it would definitely move off Democrat from winning seats
(07:01):
that are just lean Republican or seats that Trump won
by eight or nine points and maybe not why twenty
points right, It wouldn't be as bad. They wouldn't have
to sit there and defend as many seats. If this
swing starts coming into next year, we will have to
sit there and see Republicans have been very effective at
jerrymandering as well. This is something that this race really
(07:22):
put me in touch with, is just how effective now
in the Tennessee seven race, which was part of Nashville
and then a lot of exerb suburbs and rural communities,
the average the parts of Nashville right Nashville went sixty
one points for the Democrats. Nashville itself swung twenty points
more from where it was in twenty twenty four. The
(07:43):
rural and exerb and suburb areas swung a little less
than ten points. So there's clearly heavy concentration and energy
among Democrats in Democratic strongholds, which means which means you'll see,
you know, in a state like New York or New Jersey,
places that are super democratic having crazy heigh turn affecting
(08:05):
state wide elections, but not necessarily changing the course of
some swing districts or some lean Republican districts who are
mostly comprised of the exerpts and suburbs. I think that
because the jerrymannering has been so effective in places like
North Carolina, in Texas, in Florida, I don't think Republicans
are going to be dealing with that big of a
(08:26):
calamity where they're going to see Trump plus ten seats flipping.
I just don't. I don't see. I think that's in
the cars. I think that this is you know, where
we're looking at. What seats are in danger is district
that Trump won by five point six points. Those kinds
of seats, which is still quite a few, right, and
you're gonna have to really depend on Republican congressmen having
deep loyalties into those seats and into those districts and
(08:48):
into those areas they've been in for hopefully a long
time they've been working their constituents. I think that's a
really really important part. Now. Part of the reason I
believe that this has happened that those seats will be
protected is not just from this one special in Virginia
in the state legislative during the governors races, Republicans won
(09:08):
every seat of Trump one by more than ten points.
So if they were fine in Virginia, which was a
catastrophic turnout for Republicans, I think they'll be fine nationwide.
That's what I think. I know many people are sitting
there and saying, what, so, what does an icy look
like what would change what's going to happen. I have
spent time sitting there and breaking down the map as
I see what happen. If next year looks a lot
(09:30):
like twenty eighteen, that's going to come up. So there's
no definition of what a wave election is like. It's
not like if you do this percentage or that percentage
or this many seats is considered a wave. It's very
subjective to really what people said there and insists is
a wave. In my opinion, you have to win about
two dozen seats or more for it to considered a wave. Right.
(09:52):
I don't think winning nine seats is a wave election.
I think winning twenty to sixty seats is a way election. Right.
And since the last two decades, there have been four
wave elections two thousand and six, two thousand and eight,
twenty ten, and twenty eighteen. In those elections, Democrats had
three waves in two thousand and six, two eight, twenty eighteen.
(10:13):
Republicans had won in twenty ten in the Republican waver year.
In two thy ten, Republicans netted sixty three House seats,
which is absurdly high. Right, some doesn't happen in the
subsequent House elections in twenty eighteen, Democrats won about forty seats,
and in two thousand and six, in two thousand and
eight they won I think twenty one and twenty five.
(10:34):
So they want to combine about forty seven forty eight seats.
Those types of elections where can its win or parties
rather win dozens of seats thirty forty, fifty sixty are
becoming increasingly rare, which is why you saw them clustered
together in two thousand and six, two thousand and twenty ten,
and then it takes another decade for it to even
(10:54):
really happen again. Part of the reason it was able
to happen again was because when Donald Trump showed up
on the scene, turnout in midterms spiked through the roof
and they've been spiking through the roof ever since. Midterms
used to have like thirty five percent turnout from where
they were in the presidential elections, and now they're closer
towards fifty to fifty five percent, and in some states
(11:14):
north of fifty five percent. There's also been a settling
as terms of realignments. Now there are still some realignments
happening in twenty twenty four, so Trump's surgeon with Hispanic voters,
and they were very concentrated in very very blue areas,
which didn't result in many seats flipping, but they got
a lot closer In twenty ten southern seats right, you
(11:37):
may not even remember this, most of Arkansas had a
Democratic congressman. Three out of the four seats was Democratic congressmen.
States like Tennessee had tons of Democratic congressmen. Mississippi had
three of their fourth seats were Democratic congressmen. Alabama had more,
Georgia had more. Texas had tons are not tons, but
they had a handful of white, southern, middle cent rural
(12:01):
Democrats that represented those areas. That was very normal for
decades until finally those voters who had voted for Ronald
Reagan and Richard Nixon and George W. Bush finally said,
you know what, why do I have a Democratic congressman?
Tickets splitting really slowed down immensely, and Republicans made gigantic
gains throughout the entire Prairie states, throughout the Midwest, and
(12:24):
throughout the South. Likewise, in six and oh eight, Democrats
they gained seats in Connecticut, where Republicans used to have
three seats they gained seats in New Hampshire, and in Maine,
they gained seats in areas that you would have thought
I didn't know there were Republicans there as recently as
two thousand and six, two thousand and eight, as well
as seats in northern California where Republicans still tolled, seats
like in the suburbs not too far away from San Francisco,
(12:48):
not directly San Francisco, but more like towards Sacramento. But
those areas had Republican commissions that don't exist anymore. So
that kind of settling has already happened. And I think
that because that that has already happened, it is unlikely
to happen again, which is why I said, we're not
going to see an effect where you know, Republicans lose,
(13:08):
you know, Montana or Wyoming. You know, that's just it's
not really in the cars. And because there are not
any Republicans in Connecticut, or any Republicans in Rhode Island
or other deep blue areas, there's limitations to how much
their games can really manifest in these house elections. So
I played a game for you know this podcast where
(13:30):
I souther there and said, what would a election like
twenty ten if it happened for Republicans look like in
terms of turnout and victories? What would it look like
for Democrats if it was twenty eighteen? Because two thousand
and six, two six, eight ten, and twenty eighteen had
about the same exact margin, right, it was very very
close in favor of both Republicans and Democrats. It was
(13:52):
about eight points. So what would happen if Democrats won
the election by eight points? How many seats can they
possibly gain? What would happen for Republicans if they had
won an election by eight points? I think because of
how both Jerry mannered some Republicans states are, like Texas,
like North Carolina, there are serious limitations to Republicans democratic gains.
(14:16):
I think if the election my prediction and the map
is on the YouTube page. If you're listening to this,
you can turn on YouTube and I will show you
what I think the map would look like. If the
election were held and it was a Democrat plus eight year,
I think Democrats would win about two one hundred and
thirty seats to Republicans two hundred and four seats. Their
gains would come in a lot of Midwestern places like Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa,
(14:38):
they would all see Democrat gains. Likewise, they'd also see gaines.
We're going to get gains because of California because of
jerry mandering. But you'll see gains in New York definitely.
In Pennsylvania, day would see some gains, and those in Virginia.
Virginia is another area I think Democrats have the right
option of making gains. Florida. The only seat that I
could think of them even coming close to is Anelina
(14:59):
pulled Anna Paulina Luna. That's her name. Sorry, no offends
to Congressman Anna Polina Luna, but that is the only
seat that I could see with them and say, if
they have a phenomenal year and an incredible election turnout,
that I would say she could be in trouble, but
probably not even her. I put her as a possible
Democrat pickup if it was an incredible year, but she's
(15:21):
really the only one from from from Florida. Texas. I
don't see them winning any Republican members of Texas, no
matter what how they're licking their chops and saying they
over Jerrymanner. I just don't see how that's possible. Arizona
would have a few Democratic congressman pickups, and Democrats would
protect their uncumbents. Comments In most seats, there could be
one or two surprises. Someone gets indicted, somebody you know
(15:41):
gets sick, or somebody says something on the campaign trail
that affects them. I can't count for that, but if
that happened, certainly those changes would happen. The most interesting
thing is if it was a Republican plus eight year,
Republicans would have the chance to pick up a fifty
three seats. Now you're like, Ryan, that is so crazy,
that's not possible. That's even more than the Tea Party wave.
Here's why I think it is. I think Republicans would
(16:03):
one hold onto the older incumbents and they would make
gains in specifically Hispanic districts that they were definitely we're
gonna get to a Trump Republican plus eighty year, make
gains in Hispanic districts that Trump did very well and
exceed those numbers. Remember Trump one by two, so it
would be an excess of six more. You would see
(16:25):
some jerrymandering on the Democratic side, which would over over,
which wouldn't do enough to protect them. Right, So like Nevada.
Nevada is a perfect example. Nevada has four seats, three
of them are jerrymannered to protect Democrats, and Republicans came
close to pick the two of those four seats last term.
If it was a Trump a Republican plus eight year,
(16:46):
all three of those seats would swing Republican. Likewise, Orgon
would probably lose two of their Democratic seats because they've
just jerrymandered a little too much and spread them outselves
a little too thin. That's where I would see Republicans
make those gains to get us as a high number,
because I don't think that Democrats did enough to I
think that Democrats took for granted that certain populations could
(17:07):
never move, and twenty twenty four obviously proof that they
are moving. So that's where I have that estimate from.
If it was a tea party like wave fifty three
seats for Republicans, and I think it's a twenty eighteen year,
it's about two hundred and thirty one seats for Democrats.
Majorities are both parties. But I think that Democrats have
a lot less to work with than I think that
they that they used to and I don't foresee a
(17:28):
Tea Party style sixty seat wave, even in a great year,
kind of happening again for the foreseeable future. And for Democrats,
I think they're kind of stuck in a position where
they're maybe looking at twenty seats if it's an incredible year,
but they're not going to get to where they USU,
which is forty seats. Anyway, I think it's fascinating and
I think that's really where we're where we're looking at
(17:49):
limitations and why there's such heavy concentration going into next
year on certain House seats because there's fewer and fewer
which are swing seats voting, you know, fewer tickets splitting
and less swing seats. And I think that they'll be
immense concentration effort in just a few dozen and then
the other three three, four hundred, it will be in
(18:13):
the bag one way or the other day. Everyone can,
you know, spend the night, you know, hanging out and
not worrying about the election, maybe for state wide elections,
but not necessarily these independent House seats. All right, Next
up is Ask Me Anything. Stay tuned now, it's time
for the ask Me Anything segment. If you want to
be part of the Ask Me Anything segment. Email me
(18:33):
Ryan at Numbers Game podcast dot com. That's Ryan at
Numbers Plural Numbers Game Podcasts dot Com. Love getting these questions.
I answer them every episode. I get to all your
questions either privately through email or I answer them on
the show. So here's the first one comes from Jeffrey Dean.
He writes, Ryan, thank you for your great episode with
John from Breitbart. Are you familiar with the concept of
social inflation. It's a big driver of insurance increases you
(18:55):
reference in the episode. Several states are looking to mitigate
the nuclear verdicts driving the situation. South Carolina has some
good examples involving restaurants and liquor liability. Very interesting, with
more needing to be done. Keep up the great work,
Jeff Okay, I did not know about social inflation before
this email. I looked up. Social inflation refers to the
increased in claim severity above what could be anticipated under
(19:18):
the usual scope of economic inflation and claims trends. This
is from a website. This is from an insurance website.
Here are four factors fueling social inflation. One is desensitization
to a large verdicts and media impact. Second is negative
public sentiment towards corporate accountability. Thirty is erosion of tort reform.
And the last and I didn't even think of this
(19:38):
attorney tactics of litigation funding. Basically attorneys, ambulance, chaser attorneys.
They're spending over a billion dollars a year on advertising
and targeting certain areas, certain venues for lawsuits, areas they
think they can win a lot of money, which is
causing insurance overall to spike in several parts of our country.
(20:00):
They think they can get this because that's that's their business.
It's causing all of our rates to go up. I
did not know about the social inflation. I'm going to
look deeper into this and when I'm talking about it,
but Jeff really really enlightening, So thank you for that.
Next question comes from Andrew Zimmerman. He writes, is there
any data to suggest abortion was a strong motivating factor
for Democrats in the twenty twenty five election or was
(20:22):
it just a subset among costs of living and shut
down for federal workforce issues in Virginia the only state
wide election we've had since overturning Roe V. WAD was
twenty twenty three I, which, according to Public Access Project
only at thirty nine percent turnout and only gave Democrats
a slight majority in the House Delegates. I live in
District seventy five, a Richmond metro suburb district that does
(20:42):
include the city of Hope. Well, it's swung from R
plus six and twenty twenty three to D plus five
deplus six and twenty twenty five. Okay, so I looked
this up. I looked up several different both expert analysis
and exit polling and cross tabs, and abortion never made
it as a top issue in anywhere that I was
able to pull data from about sixty percent of Virginian
(21:03):
support access to abortion in most or all circumstances. Thirty
five percent would be pro life, wanting it and wanting
you know, the restrict abortion in most in all circumstances,
which is kind of where I thought it would be.
Maybe it's a little higher, but it could also be
higher because Democrat turnout was higher. The interesting thing was
that more pro choice voters voted Republican for governor than
(21:26):
pro life voters voted for the Democrat, according to seeing
an exepul seventeen percent of pro choice voters in Virginia
voted for Wins and Sars, while only eleven percent of
pro lifers voted for Spamberg. So I mean, that's interesting.
But no, I don't think that it was enough of
a driver. I mean, I'm sure there are some people
that it was, you know, a big issue for like
abortion is always a big issue for some people. I
(21:47):
think that predominantly, though, it was cost of living, government
shut down and just hating Trump and excessive democratic turnout.
I mean I looked, I looked really hard for it.
I couldn't find it. So but hey, there's always another
like in two years, so hopefully your area will swing
back towards Republicans. That's it for this episode. Thank you
guys for listening to this podcast. If you like this podcast,
please like and subscribe to the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts,
(22:10):
where we get your podcast YouTube Now. My videos are
on YouTube. If you liked this episode and you like
this show, please give me a five star review. It
really helps get the word out. Thank you guys, and
I will see you all next week.
Welcome back to a numbers game with Brian Groski. Thank
you guys for being here. Happy Thursday. Remember how I
mentioned to you in my last episode that we're coming
at the end of the year, so Spotify and Apple
Playlist where it's going to put their end of the
year numbers. Well I said that on Monday and came
out on Wednesday that they said your number one podcast
and song and singer and all of us artists were
(00:25):
and they had interesting Spotify had an interesting thing this
year they've never done before was they guessed your age
by what music you listen to. They guess my age
was sixty eight years old. I am. I am not hip.
I guess like I am I am. I guess I
need to diversify. There's a lot of classic rock on
my playlist from Ozzy Osbourne and Linda Ronstant and Fleetwood
(00:49):
Mac and the Carpenters and Bruce Springsteen. Like, there's a
lot of that going on. I might need to like
just spruce it up with some Taylor Swift or Sabrina Carpenters.
I don't know, but sixty eight was kind of rough
to get Social Security numbers thrown at you. That that's
where you're a that's where your mind is. So I
thought it was funny. Hopefully my podcast came into your
top five list. If it hasn't, please like and subscribe
(01:11):
to this podcast and the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube,
wherever you get this podcast. I love to be your
top five. Come next year, we have a lot of
great end of the year episodes. I'm so excited with
a big announcement coming next year at the the end
of this month rather and the game next year big announcement.
But we have a lot of fun episodes. Because it's December,
there's only so much politics people can really sit there
(01:33):
and take. So we're gonna do a lot of politics.
But we have an episode with a priest right around
Christmas time, my priest actually, so that'll be a fun,
interesting conversation. We'll have one of my consultant friends who
are gonna come on to talk about what it's like
to run a campaign, to be part of a campaign,
what it's like to win. We have questions from the
audience that we're going to ask for them, and also
I'm gonna have this is so great, so accept this.
(01:55):
I have a lot of not a lot. I have
a few gen Z employees. I think I have like
seven ENZ employees. So I'm actually going to hold a
contest on this podcast with three of them. I'm going
to offer them cash to quiz them about millennial and
gen X culture and to see if who can get
it right. And it's going to be great. I'm so
excited for it. Let the public roasting begin. They know
(02:17):
what they're involved with like this, so it's on me
too hard. It's going to be very basic stuff, but
I'm very much looking forward to seeing how much they
know about the world that you know, existed before streaming.
So I'm very very excited. Anyway, let's talk about politics
for a second. There was a special election in the
Tennessee seventh Congressional district where Republican Matthew Van Epps won
(02:38):
by a nine point margin against Democrat often Ben I
think is how prognis her name. She's a little bit crazy. Anyway,
he won fifty four to forty five. So congratulations to
the future Congressman Matt Van Apps. Now it was a
solid victory. Nine points is a decent margin, but remember
it's a district that Trump won by twenty two points.
(02:58):
Last November not a great place where you want to
be for Republicans in this one special election, but it
also is not where you want to be when you
look at the overall change that's been happening in all
these special elections throughout this year. This was just a
thirteen point swing towards the Democrats, but it spells what's
coming up in the future and what's been going on
(03:19):
the pass and where voter sentiment is. Now here's the
thing of why now normally, listen, you shouldn't put too
much emphasis in any one special election. This election was
different because it had a mid term turnout. In twenty
twenty two Congress and Mark Green, the Republican, won his
seat by twenty two points. It was one hundred and
(03:40):
eighty eight hundred and twenty two votes. In this election,
where Matthew Van Epps won by nine points, there was
one hundred and seventy nine eight hundred and ninety nine votes,
almost basically a one thousand z difference. It was a
mid term turnout for a special election. The Democrat candidate,
who was very far left, received eighty one thousand votes,
(04:01):
that's sixty six percent of all the votes. Kamala Harris won,
while Van EPP's got about forty nine to forty eight
percent of all the votes that Trump received in the district.
Not great, and it's just not a turnout thing. Turnout
is very very high for Democrats. Right, Democrats are super engaged,
but there's clearly movement among independent voters who are very
(04:24):
worried about the economy and dealing with the aftermaths of
Biden's inflation. It is like, you know that smell that's
lingering after a couple of days of having food left
out or spoil milk, like it's it's I think voters
really believe Trump was going to reduce overall prices, not
just slow inflation down, which he has been successful at,
but reduce prices and go to maybe a deflationary period
(04:46):
for a little while. That clearly hasn't happened. The job
market is very worrisome for young people. We've had tons
of episodes about this kind of content. Now, there have
been sixty two special elections in the last year, both
for state house states, Senate and Congress, right state legislative
and Congression, and Democrats have overperformed in twenty twenty four
to sixty two special elections by an average of eleven points.
(05:10):
That is historic by any single party in recent history. Right,
that is a lot, and no amount of mid decade
jerrymandering is going to fix it unless I guess if
the VRA Section twelve is over Section two Rothers overturned,
and we have states like Georgia and Alabama, Mississippi all
jumping in in Florida Redistrict, all their states unless that happens,
(05:34):
And I still think even if that happens, it's not
enough to sit there and stop a Democratic way from
taking the House. I didn't think it was going to
be this extreme. A couple like a couple of weeks ago,
were in a couple of months ago. But I looked
at the twenty seventeen to twenty eighteen special elections and
Democrats that year, and that gigantic wave only led in
(05:54):
specials by six points. Remember right now, it's by eleven points.
If the midterm election were to happen today, it is
almost guaranteed that Democrats will perform at nearly the same percentage,
if not greater, than they received performed in twenty eighteen.
The good thing for Republicans is that the election isn't tomorrow,
and things can change. And let me make a point
(06:16):
about the recent past year. Twenty twenty three, there were
dozens of special elections for both state legislature and Congress,
and Democrats overperformed by almost four points, right, four points
from where they had performed in twenty twenty, which was
already a very good year for Democrats. The following year,
in twenty twenty four, there were also dozens of special
elections ahead of the presidential election, and Republicans outperform their
(06:38):
performance in twenty twenty by two points, So there was
a six point swing between just one year in favor
of Republicans ahead of the presidential election, a five to
six point swing. If it happened next year ahead of
the midterms, it wouldn't be enough to save the House Republicans,
but it would definitely move off Democrat from winning seats
(07:01):
that are just lean Republican or seats that Trump won
by eight or nine points and maybe not why twenty
points right, It wouldn't be as bad. They wouldn't have
to sit there and defend as many seats. If this
swing starts coming into next year, we will have to
sit there and see Republicans have been very effective at
jerrymandering as well. This is something that this race really
(07:22):
put me in touch with, is just how effective now
in the Tennessee seven race, which was part of Nashville
and then a lot of exerb suburbs and rural communities,
the average the parts of Nashville right Nashville went sixty
one points for the Democrats. Nashville itself swung twenty points
more from where it was in twenty twenty four. The
(07:43):
rural and exerb and suburb areas swung a little less
than ten points. So there's clearly heavy concentration and energy
among Democrats in Democratic strongholds, which means which means you'll see,
you know, in a state like New York or New Jersey,
places that are super democratic having crazy heigh turn affecting
(08:05):
state wide elections, but not necessarily changing the course of
some swing districts or some lean Republican districts who are
mostly comprised of the exerpts and suburbs. I think that
because the jerrymannering has been so effective in places like
North Carolina, in Texas, in Florida, I don't think Republicans
are going to be dealing with that big of a
(08:26):
calamity where they're going to see Trump plus ten seats flipping.
I just don't. I don't see. I think that's in
the cars. I think that this is you know, where
we're looking at. What seats are in danger is district
that Trump won by five point six points. Those kinds
of seats, which is still quite a few, right, and
you're gonna have to really depend on Republican congressmen having
deep loyalties into those seats and into those districts and
(08:48):
into those areas they've been in for hopefully a long
time they've been working their constituents. I think that's a
really really important part. Now. Part of the reason I
believe that this has happened that those seats will be
protected is not just from this one special in Virginia
in the state legislative during the governors races, Republicans won
(09:08):
every seat of Trump one by more than ten points.
So if they were fine in Virginia, which was a
catastrophic turnout for Republicans, I think they'll be fine nationwide.
That's what I think. I know many people are sitting
there and saying, what, so, what does an icy look
like what would change what's going to happen. I have
spent time sitting there and breaking down the map as
I see what happen. If next year looks a lot
(09:30):
like twenty eighteen, that's going to come up. So there's
no definition of what a wave election is like. It's
not like if you do this percentage or that percentage
or this many seats is considered a wave. It's very
subjective to really what people said there and insists is
a wave. In my opinion, you have to win about
two dozen seats or more for it to considered a wave. Right.
(09:52):
I don't think winning nine seats is a wave election.
I think winning twenty to sixty seats is a way election. Right.
And since the last two decades, there have been four
wave elections two thousand and six, two thousand and eight,
twenty ten, and twenty eighteen. In those elections, Democrats had
three waves in two thousand and six, two eight, twenty eighteen.
(10:13):
Republicans had won in twenty ten in the Republican waver year.
In two thy ten, Republicans netted sixty three House seats,
which is absurdly high. Right, some doesn't happen in the
subsequent House elections in twenty eighteen, Democrats won about forty seats,
and in two thousand and six, in two thousand and
eight they won I think twenty one and twenty five.
(10:34):
So they want to combine about forty seven forty eight seats.
Those types of elections where can its win or parties
rather win dozens of seats thirty forty, fifty sixty are
becoming increasingly rare, which is why you saw them clustered
together in two thousand and six, two thousand and twenty ten,
and then it takes another decade for it to even
(10:54):
really happen again. Part of the reason it was able
to happen again was because when Donald Trump showed up
on the scene, turnout in midterms spiked through the roof
and they've been spiking through the roof ever since. Midterms
used to have like thirty five percent turnout from where
they were in the presidential elections, and now they're closer
towards fifty to fifty five percent, and in some states
(11:14):
north of fifty five percent. There's also been a settling
as terms of realignments. Now there are still some realignments
happening in twenty twenty four, so Trump's surgeon with Hispanic voters,
and they were very concentrated in very very blue areas,
which didn't result in many seats flipping, but they got
a lot closer In twenty ten southern seats right, you
(11:37):
may not even remember this, most of Arkansas had a
Democratic congressman. Three out of the four seats was Democratic congressmen.
States like Tennessee had tons of Democratic congressmen. Mississippi had
three of their fourth seats were Democratic congressmen. Alabama had more,
Georgia had more. Texas had tons are not tons, but
they had a handful of white, southern, middle cent rural
(12:01):
Democrats that represented those areas. That was very normal for
decades until finally those voters who had voted for Ronald
Reagan and Richard Nixon and George W. Bush finally said,
you know what, why do I have a Democratic congressman?
Tickets splitting really slowed down immensely, and Republicans made gigantic
gains throughout the entire Prairie states, throughout the Midwest, and
(12:24):
throughout the South. Likewise, in six and oh eight, Democrats
they gained seats in Connecticut, where Republicans used to have
three seats they gained seats in New Hampshire, and in Maine,
they gained seats in areas that you would have thought
I didn't know there were Republicans there as recently as
two thousand and six, two thousand and eight, as well
as seats in northern California where Republicans still tolled, seats
like in the suburbs not too far away from San Francisco,
(12:48):
not directly San Francisco, but more like towards Sacramento. But
those areas had Republican commissions that don't exist anymore. So
that kind of settling has already happened. And I think
that because that that has already happened, it is unlikely
to happen again, which is why I said, we're not
going to see an effect where you know, Republicans lose,
(13:08):
you know, Montana or Wyoming. You know, that's just it's
not really in the cars. And because there are not
any Republicans in Connecticut, or any Republicans in Rhode Island
or other deep blue areas, there's limitations to how much
their games can really manifest in these house elections. So
I played a game for you know this podcast where
(13:30):
I souther there and said, what would a election like
twenty ten if it happened for Republicans look like in
terms of turnout and victories? What would it look like
for Democrats if it was twenty eighteen? Because two thousand
and six, two six, eight ten, and twenty eighteen had
about the same exact margin, right, it was very very
close in favor of both Republicans and Democrats. It was
(13:52):
about eight points. So what would happen if Democrats won
the election by eight points? How many seats can they
possibly gain? What would happen for Republicans if they had
won an election by eight points? I think because of
how both Jerry mannered some Republicans states are, like Texas,
like North Carolina, there are serious limitations to Republicans democratic gains.
(14:16):
I think if the election my prediction and the map
is on the YouTube page. If you're listening to this,
you can turn on YouTube and I will show you
what I think the map would look like. If the
election were held and it was a Democrat plus eight year,
I think Democrats would win about two one hundred and
thirty seats to Republicans two hundred and four seats. Their
gains would come in a lot of Midwestern places like Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa,
(14:38):
they would all see Democrat gains. Likewise, they'd also see gaines.
We're going to get gains because of California because of
jerry mandering. But you'll see gains in New York definitely.
In Pennsylvania, day would see some gains, and those in Virginia.
Virginia is another area I think Democrats have the right
option of making gains. Florida. The only seat that I
could think of them even coming close to is Anelina
(14:59):
pulled Anna Paulina Luna. That's her name. Sorry, no offends
to Congressman Anna Polina Luna, but that is the only
seat that I could see with them and say, if
they have a phenomenal year and an incredible election turnout,
that I would say she could be in trouble, but
probably not even her. I put her as a possible
Democrat pickup if it was an incredible year, but she's
(15:21):
really the only one from from from Florida. Texas. I
don't see them winning any Republican members of Texas, no
matter what how they're licking their chops and saying they
over Jerrymanner. I just don't see how that's possible. Arizona
would have a few Democratic congressman pickups, and Democrats would
protect their uncumbents. Comments In most seats, there could be
one or two surprises. Someone gets indicted, somebody you know
(15:41):
gets sick, or somebody says something on the campaign trail
that affects them. I can't count for that, but if
that happened, certainly those changes would happen. The most interesting
thing is if it was a Republican plus eight year,
Republicans would have the chance to pick up a fifty
three seats. Now you're like, Ryan, that is so crazy,
that's not possible. That's even more than the Tea Party wave.
Here's why I think it is. I think Republicans would
(16:03):
one hold onto the older incumbents and they would make
gains in specifically Hispanic districts that they were definitely we're
gonna get to a Trump Republican plus eighty year, make
gains in Hispanic districts that Trump did very well and
exceed those numbers. Remember Trump one by two, so it
would be an excess of six more. You would see
(16:25):
some jerrymandering on the Democratic side, which would over over,
which wouldn't do enough to protect them. Right, So like Nevada.
Nevada is a perfect example. Nevada has four seats, three
of them are jerrymannered to protect Democrats, and Republicans came
close to pick the two of those four seats last term.
If it was a Trump a Republican plus eight year,
(16:46):
all three of those seats would swing Republican. Likewise, Orgon
would probably lose two of their Democratic seats because they've
just jerrymandered a little too much and spread them outselves
a little too thin. That's where I would see Republicans
make those gains to get us as a high number,
because I don't think that Democrats did enough to I
think that Democrats took for granted that certain populations could
(17:07):
never move, and twenty twenty four obviously proof that they
are moving. So that's where I have that estimate from.
If it was a tea party like wave fifty three
seats for Republicans, and I think it's a twenty eighteen year,
it's about two hundred and thirty one seats for Democrats.
Majorities are both parties. But I think that Democrats have
a lot less to work with than I think that
they that they used to and I don't foresee a
(17:28):
Tea Party style sixty seat wave, even in a great year,
kind of happening again for the foreseeable future. And for Democrats,
I think they're kind of stuck in a position where
they're maybe looking at twenty seats if it's an incredible year,
but they're not going to get to where they USU,
which is forty seats. Anyway, I think it's fascinating and
I think that's really where we're where we're looking at
(17:49):
limitations and why there's such heavy concentration going into next
year on certain House seats because there's fewer and fewer
which are swing seats voting, you know, fewer tickets splitting
and less swing seats. And I think that they'll be
immense concentration effort in just a few dozen and then
the other three three, four hundred, it will be in
(18:13):
the bag one way or the other day. Everyone can,
you know, spend the night, you know, hanging out and
not worrying about the election, maybe for state wide elections,
but not necessarily these independent House seats. All right, Next
up is Ask Me Anything. Stay tuned now, it's time
for the ask Me Anything segment. If you want to
be part of the Ask Me Anything segment. Email me
(18:33):
Ryan at Numbers Game podcast dot com. That's Ryan at
Numbers Plural Numbers Game Podcasts dot Com. Love getting these questions.
I answer them every episode. I get to all your
questions either privately through email or I answer them on
the show. So here's the first one comes from Jeffrey Dean.
He writes, Ryan, thank you for your great episode with
John from Breitbart. Are you familiar with the concept of
social inflation. It's a big driver of insurance increases you
(18:55):
reference in the episode. Several states are looking to mitigate
the nuclear verdicts driving the situation. South Carolina has some
good examples involving restaurants and liquor liability. Very interesting, with
more needing to be done. Keep up the great work,
Jeff Okay, I did not know about social inflation before
this email. I looked up. Social inflation refers to the
increased in claim severity above what could be anticipated under
(19:18):
the usual scope of economic inflation and claims trends. This
is from a website. This is from an insurance website.
Here are four factors fueling social inflation. One is desensitization
to a large verdicts and media impact. Second is negative
public sentiment towards corporate accountability. Thirty is erosion of tort reform.
And the last and I didn't even think of this
(19:38):
attorney tactics of litigation funding. Basically attorneys, ambulance, chaser attorneys.
They're spending over a billion dollars a year on advertising
and targeting certain areas, certain venues for lawsuits, areas they
think they can win a lot of money, which is
causing insurance overall to spike in several parts of our country.
(20:00):
They think they can get this because that's that's their business.
It's causing all of our rates to go up. I
did not know about the social inflation. I'm going to
look deeper into this and when I'm talking about it,
but Jeff really really enlightening, So thank you for that.
Next question comes from Andrew Zimmerman. He writes, is there
any data to suggest abortion was a strong motivating factor
for Democrats in the twenty twenty five election or was
(20:22):
it just a subset among costs of living and shut
down for federal workforce issues in Virginia the only state
wide election we've had since overturning Roe V. WAD was
twenty twenty three I, which, according to Public Access Project
only at thirty nine percent turnout and only gave Democrats
a slight majority in the House Delegates. I live in
District seventy five, a Richmond metro suburb district that does
(20:42):
include the city of Hope. Well, it's swung from R
plus six and twenty twenty three to D plus five
deplus six and twenty twenty five. Okay, so I looked
this up. I looked up several different both expert analysis
and exit polling and cross tabs, and abortion never made
it as a top issue in anywhere that I was
able to pull data from about sixty percent of Virginian
(21:03):
support access to abortion in most or all circumstances. Thirty
five percent would be pro life, wanting it and wanting
you know, the restrict abortion in most in all circumstances,
which is kind of where I thought it would be.
Maybe it's a little higher, but it could also be
higher because Democrat turnout was higher. The interesting thing was
that more pro choice voters voted Republican for governor than
(21:26):
pro life voters voted for the Democrat, according to seeing
an exepul seventeen percent of pro choice voters in Virginia
voted for Wins and Sars, while only eleven percent of
pro lifers voted for Spamberg. So I mean, that's interesting.
But no, I don't think that it was enough of
a driver. I mean, I'm sure there are some people
that it was, you know, a big issue for like
abortion is always a big issue for some people. I
(21:47):
think that predominantly, though, it was cost of living, government
shut down and just hating Trump and excessive democratic turnout.
I mean I looked, I looked really hard for it.
I couldn't find it. So but hey, there's always another
like in two years, so hopefully your area will swing
back towards Republicans. That's it for this episode. Thank you
guys for listening to this podcast. If you like this podcast,
please like and subscribe to the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts,
(22:10):
where we get your podcast YouTube Now. My videos are
on YouTube. If you liked this episode and you like
this show, please give me a five star review. It
really helps get the word out. Thank you guys, and
I will see you all next week.
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