Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Gruduski. Thank
you all for being here yet again. I want to
start off the show with a couple announcements. First, our
release time has changed. If you didn't know, our Monday
podcast episodes are coming out at five PM instead of
the morning release. It was a decision by management to
change the release times to try to broaden the listenership.
(00:24):
And I hope you will stay with the show and
listen at our new time, or listen the next morning
when you're on your way to work or school or
wherever you're listening. I'm going to continue to bring you
useful information and hope you can sit there and join
us along. Secondly, I am at the beginning stages of
setting up a video podcast for a YouTube channel. It
(00:44):
will be out sometime this fall, I believe.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
So.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
I've gotten a lot of requests asking for a full
video podcast because some of you want to watch me.
I'm not exactly sure why, but you will be able
to see it sometime this fall, and we're going to
go along and I'm very very exciting with that for that,
I'm going to tee that up when it actually happens. Lastly,
I brought this up a while ago. I don't know
who remembers and who doesn't, but I'm going to do
(01:09):
a special episode for the nine to eleven anniversary on
nine to eleven. It will be come out on the
nine elevens of the Thursday. This year, my podcast is
released on Thursday, so I want to bring on my
family members who worked in the World Trade Center, my
lifelong New York were born and raised and my mom,
I've talked to this before. She worked in ninety seven
(01:29):
floor of Tower one for Marsha mcclennan. My uncle was
a window washer. I had a lot of people who
were family members. They worked at COP as cops and
through an active luck and God's grace and everything, no,
everyone survived like it was a truly miracle. Farming people
I had in my life that were down there, they
all lived. A lot of people I knew growing up
did not have that experience. A lot of people I
(01:51):
knew lost a dad, especially a lot of dads I
knew were just relatives and uncles. So I am going
to do an episode on that special and I have
invited my family members to come to talk about that day,
because you know, I know it doesn't. It's so funny
and eleven feels like it's something that was like five
(02:11):
years ago, if unless I think about it and I
realized how long it was. I have employees that like
they weren't alive for it, or they were just born.
And the people who were there, a lot of them
are very healthy and they've got a long life ahead
of them, but they won't be around forever and for
all the coverage has ever been done a lot of
(02:32):
times from the perspective of leaders or Mayor Giuliani or
people who were on the ground, a lot of them
haven't been from people who were just working there, and
that was my family, and I think I could bring
an interesting conversation and perspective. They haven't all agreed yet.
I have a few held outs, but I'm trying to
convince them. But that will be out, I guess in
two weeks for a special episode. So I've mentioned in
(02:54):
the past, and I'm kind of figuring all other details
out of making sure they're all comfortab because they're very
private people. But I think it will be really really
nice to have that kind of conversation and very cathartic
for me. And yeah, I hope you'll be there for that.
So all right, let's get to the topic of the show.
And it is the cold war, that is the redistricting
(03:16):
fight that is now a full arms race across the country.
And I want to preface by starting to say that
I know I've talked about redistricting at nauseum. I know
you're probably like, I can't do one more redistricting podcast episode, Ryan,
I got you, I understand, and I put you all
through it, but this will be the last one for
a while. Like, but it needs to be said because
it is. It's now happening across the country, Like we
(03:38):
are at a spark point where the map is going
to look very different in multiple states in twenty twenty six.
So first Texas past their redistricted map, they have five
new Republican seats. California is going far with their new map,
which will give four new Democratic seats. In California, they
still vote for the popular vote by the people in November.
(04:02):
Polls show that it is favored among the people so
far by a sixteen point lead according to the New
Berkeley poll. So Republicans are spending a lot of money.
Kevin McCarthy is coming up there on Schwarzenegger's campaigning against it.
There's still time for it to go down. I mean,
poles are not predictors of the future. There are snapshots
of the present, so who knows, but right now definitely there.
(04:25):
The momentum is on Gavin Newsom side. Things can change
though other states, like Democrat Governor of Maryland Wes Moore,
has announced he's going to redistrict the sole Republican seat
in Maryland to a Democratic seat, so that will take
Democrats and give them another seat in Congress. Florida Governor
Ron de Santis, though, has sat there and staid that
he's preparing to redistrict Florida. Florida currently has twenty Republicans
(04:49):
and eight Democrats. Well, Florida has become so Republican, and
it's so balanced in their republicanness and how Republicans vote like,
it's not like it's all concentrated in one place that
Republicans could very easily draw out four or five Democrats
into Republican districts. Congressman Darren Soto, Kathy Castor, Lewis Frankel,
(05:11):
Jared Moscowitz, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz are all the most
likely people to end up finding themselves in a Republican
district will be very, very difficult for them to win.
People are asking me if it would be easy, especially
for Wasserman Schultz, because I mean, she was the former
spokesman for the DNC. She has a lot of hate
from Republicans, some rightfully, so if it would be easy
(05:31):
to redistrict her, And I'm like, it's so easy. I
could do it with a box of crayons in the
back of a TGA have Friday Kids menu, Like she
can easily be drawn into a Republican district. Trump and
Vice President of Vance have also made headway and getting
Indiana considered redistricting. Indiana easily can draw one Republican district
in the northwest part of the state. They could probably
even do two in the Indianapolis seat if they get
(05:52):
creative Missouri as well as considering redrawing their one seat
in western Missouri in the Kansas City area. Other states
have joined the conversation. In Nebraska Kansas, I don't know
how serious they are in that. The biggest question comes
though with the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court in will decide.
(06:12):
I think it's in December or is October rather in
October will have a side on Section two of the
Voting Rights Act. The Section two of the Voting Right
Rights Act forces states to draw congressional districts where minorities
will get proper representation and a vote for people that
represent them, i e. Other minorities. Like they say, unless
the district will vote for a black person in a
(06:33):
black majority district, then it's not really Then it's an
interruption of the Voting Rights Act. So the court is
having this big fight over Louisiana. Louisiana was forced to
draw a second black majority district in the state, and
Alabama is as well. But the Louisiana cases going to
the Supreme Court. If the Court sits there and says,
not only does Louisiana not have to have a second
(06:54):
black majority district, but the entire Section two of the
Voting Rights Act is no longer constitutional. It extends from
the nineteen sixties. We don't have the same we don't
have the same barriers to voting that they did back then.
Jim Crow is obviously not a thing anymore, neither are
poll taxes. Well, then if that happens, if Section two
is stricken down. It is going to be craziness because Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi,
(07:20):
South Carolina, North Carolina, and Georgia are all going to
start redistricting. Those are nine House seats that Democrats have
in those very very red states or purple states in
Georgia states. But in the very red states and the
rest of the country where they could easily draw out
Democratic districts like Jim Cliburn will be gone, like you
will have no chance of reelection if they strike down
(07:41):
the Voting Rights Act because his district is very easy
to draw into a very Republican district. Same thing in Alabama,
same thing for the two Democrats in Alabama, same thing
for the one Democrat, Bounty Thompson in Mississippi. In Georgia,
you could draw out two Democrats. It is going to
be crazy how quickly it could happen, really redistrict the
last Democrats of the Deep South. So and there's also,
(08:04):
by the way, there's Ohio. Ohio is considering redistricting now
three Democrat seats into Republican seats. So for those who
are counting with me, in just Indiana, Ohio, Texas, and Florida,
Republicans have the ability to really draw fourteen new Republican
seats if the Voting Rights Act is struck down, which
I don't know is I mean, the Supreme Court does
(08:26):
what they want to do. If it is struck down,
that number goes to twenty two, twenty two or twenty three,
whether or not North Carolina can pass it because I
don't think they have the super majority anymore, so it's
probably not, But twenty two twenty two seats can be
drawn for Republicans. Even with California and Maryland redistricting. For Democrats,
that number for how things have changed goes to plus
(08:47):
seventeen for Republicans. That seventeen more Republican districts, even when
you subtract what's what will likely be lost in California
and Maryland, that is really big. I mean, Democrats have
just won another court case in Utah where they have
to draw Salt Lake County into one seat, which is
a very democratic part of Utah. Even with that, they
(09:10):
will still have Republicans will still netted sixteen seats, not
on top of the majority of they have. It becomes
much harder for Democrats than to sit there and to
win the House in the midterms not impossible. Still not impossible.
Anything can happen, but it becomes much more difficult because
these House seats are so Republican or so Democrat that
(09:33):
they're not competitive. The number of competitive seats is like
a dozen, so it becomes extremely difficult for Democrats. And
President Trump and Vice President Bands are really working hard
to convince legislators to go over the line redistrict and
give the Republicans as many safe seats as humanly possible
going to this election. Democrats are in this position where
(09:56):
they don't have as many states to work with because
they already jerrymannered the first time in places like Illinois,
in places like Oregon and Connecticut and Massachusetts and New Jersey,
which New Jersey is a quote unquote independent commission, but
let's be honest, it is a Democrat jerrymander. There are
districts in Connecticut that are joined by the water. There's
no land masks or bridge to connect them. So Republicans
(10:19):
really have this ability to sit, they're and change ahead
of the midterms. What I think is at stake long term,
which no one's talking about and no one's even thinking about,
is that we are only two election cycles out till
twenty thirty, which I know twenty thirty seems like it's
a million years away, but it's not. And then the
census comes out and states start redistricting, and in the
(10:41):
twenty thirty census, it is extremely likely that states like
California and New York and Illinois and Rhode Island are
all losing congressional districts. Early estimates say that California will
lose three, Illinois will lose one, and New York will
lose two. I've heard that New York might lose one
and Illinois will lose two, back and forth, but it's
six overall. By jerry mandering ahead of time in places
(11:06):
like Illinois and in California. New York is not as
gerrymandered as those two states, but in Illinois and in California,
Democrats are setting themselves up in a position where they're
going to force Democrats to go at each other because
they've already lumped every republic possible Republican voter in the
same district, so it's not like they can take out
many more Republicans. They're going to sit there and have
(11:27):
to take out their own, and they're putting their own
Democrats in very uncomfortable positions just four years out, where
you'll see incumbents having to face off each other if
they want to keep the level of democratic districts that
are uncompetitive so high, they can make competitive districts that
they wanted to but they don't want to. And with
(11:47):
President Trump aggressley working to deport illegal immigrants and the
foreign born population shrinking this year, who knows how that's
going to shake up California and Illinois. New York depend
on immigrants. I've talked with this a lot in this podcast.
They depend on immigration, both legal and illegal, to bolster
lower levels of domestic migration of American citizens wanting to
(12:10):
move to their states because it's so highly regulated in
so many taxes, and so expensive to live in and
also it's woke as hell in some parts of the state.
I think that in less places like North Carolina or
Georgia or Arizona take hard turns to the left, which
maybe Georgia will. We're going to see ourselves in the
(12:33):
twenty thirties go to a place where Democrats can't win
on the White House unless they win Georgia, unless they
win all the Blue Wall states, unless they win Arizona again,
it will become very difficult for the win the House
because of this, like Democrats are putting themselves in the
position long term that makes the twenty thirty decade a
(12:54):
very tough decade for them. And I think that what's
the law in this entire conversation are states that are
not talked about, right Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, They all
have democratic governors. Why aren't they in the middle of
this redistricting fight where all these people are Gavin Newsom
(13:16):
is launching a presidential race to facto by redistricting. He
is saying, I am the great resistor, I will fight Trump.
He's using very involuntary, like very violent language. Why is
why aren't like Tim Walls. Tim Wats wants to run
for president, He would love to be a presidential figure.
Why is he not doing this well? Because he can't
(13:36):
because he lost the state legislature. Because Arizona State Legislature,
despite them having a Democratic governor, have two of the
Republican State Senate and the Republican State House. Republicans of
the State Senate in Pennsylvania, Republicans of the State House
in Michigan, it's so important that in these blue and
purple states, Republicans have managed to gain an iota of
(14:00):
political power and iota of a presence that stops these
Democratic governors from doing to their states what Gavin Newsom
is and Wes Moore in Maryland are trying to do
to their states. That make sure is that the entire
electorate isn't fixed against Republicans nationwide. And that's what I
want to talk about for this upcoming interviewing for this thing.
(14:23):
Is it worth Republicans? I know I have a lot
of Republicans who listen to this podcast in blue states.
Is it worth staying in your blue state and fighting?
The answer is obviously yes to a certain degree. I mean,
it depends on whether the state is, but the answer
is obviously yes. Because if it were not for those
Republicans who stayed in Michigan when Gretchen Whitmer was going
(14:44):
full tilt boogie on COVID that won the state House back,
well Michigan will very well maybe the next California. Same
thing with the Democrat Republicans who stayed in Minnesota year
after year after year after year. And what we've seen
in a lot in the last election or Republicans. They
gained a lot in state legislators across the country, in California,
in Hawaii, in Vermont, in Colorado, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Mexico,
(15:09):
all these blue and purple states. Republicans gained not enough
to flip, even though they got very close in Vermont
and Maine, not enough to flip the legislature, but they
gain significant amount. Had they done the job of flipping
the legislature, well, we mean a completely different conversation. Had
Republicans won the state House or state Senate in Vermont
and I think, sorry not Vermont, California and they won
(15:31):
I think four seats total. Have they done that? Well,
Gavin Newson wouldn't have the ability to do this. He'd
just be you know, screaming, you know, on MSNBC or
CNN or Fox or something like that. He wouldn't have
the ability to sit there in redistrict.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
That's why.
Speaker 1 (15:47):
You know a lot of pundits that they're in site.
Just leave your blue state. Just get out of New Jersey.
Just go out of New Jersey and get to Florida,
and we'll all live in Florida together and we'll you know,
sing Kumbaya and dance in a circle and just embrace
this on and I get the appeal of that. However,
we are coming to a place in so many of
these states where it is possible, and we've seen this
(16:07):
in the voter registration numbers. It's possible to win a governorship,
to win a state Senate, to win a state house,
to affect change on a national level by winning locally.
It's really important to put yourself in that context of
how close we've gotten in a number of these big
blue states, and how we have done successfully in Minnesota
and Michigan and Pennsylvania to keep them from going full
(16:31):
full tilts California. States can change. I think that it's
important to realize states can change. West Virginia was one
of the bluest states in this country from the thirties
to the nineteen nineties, right the legislator was Democrat. To
the twenty tens, New Jersey was a so solidly red state.
(16:53):
What I think that it's important to think of is
that politics isn't permanent in any place. Republicans, even though
it could seem so dark in some areas and so
lost and so unbelievably not possible it is even to
gain one foothold of power somewhere, it is possible for
(17:14):
Republicans to win with me this week. My guess is
as a Republican who's walked the walk, he's ran for
office in a deep blue area, he's won his seat
in a deep blue area, and now he's running for governor,
and he's saying to a Republicans, stay and fight with me,
and let's sit there and take the seat of power
for common sense and quality of life and everything that
(17:36):
he believes in in a deep blue state, and let's
see if that will affect the country as a whole.
That entry's coming up right after this. Ryan Fazio is
a state center from Connecticut's thirty sixth district, which is,
if you're looking at a map, as the air of
a Greenwich, New Canaan, North Stanford. Ryan is having a
very busy summer. On August tenth, he announced he's engaged.
(17:56):
In August thirteenth that he was running for governor of
the state. That's a lot in seventy two hours, Ryan,
So thank you for being here. I know you are
a busy guy.
Speaker 2 (18:05):
Yeah, Well, compared to that week, this feels like nothing.
Speaker 1 (18:09):
So Ryan, you first ran for office when you're thirty
years old in twenty twenty. What made you decide to
get involved in running for office at a relatively young age.
Speaker 3 (18:18):
You know, it was just something that was so in
my heart and in my gut. I grew up in
the district that I represent now in the state Senate.
I grew up in Connecticut, and I just look at
the state. I think it's a great place with great people,
but like many other high tax blue states, it's been
suffering economically. It's too expensive to live here. I care
(18:39):
a lot about economic policy. I care a lot about
making sure the American dream is accessible to all people,
regardless of their station in life. And I thought that
if I wanted a job done right or better, that
ultimately had to do it myself. So I resigned from
the job I was in and ran for the state Senate.
(18:59):
And you know, I've been in the state Senate for
now three terms, about four or five years, and it's
been a great experience. But I think there's more that
the state government needs to do, far more, and that's
why I've ultimately chosen to to run for higher office.
Speaker 1 (19:15):
Well, you lost your first rates in twenty twenty and
then won the following year in a special election, and
you've been a prime target for Democrats in the state. They'
spent a lot of money against you. Every year you've run,
your district has voted consistently Democrat at the federal level
that Kamal Harris want to buy sixteen points in the
same year you want it by three points. So describe
a Harris Fasio voter, like, how do you reach people
(19:39):
who vote for Democrats federally? Because I think that's a
lot a big question. A lot of Republicans stress what
they say. How do I reach voters who, you know,
they either don't like Trump, or they like the Democrats,
or they agree with them on this issue or that issue,
but they you know, understand that there's a common sense
or quality of life issue that you could talk to
them about.
Speaker 3 (19:58):
I think it's a few things. First, you got to listen.
You know, so much of politics these days is who
can talk the loudest. But I think listening is very important.
And I don't mean that in a cliche sense. You know,
we do still have a democracy. People still do choose
what they prefer, maybe not what they like, but what
(20:19):
they prefer and in order to really understand what they prefer,
you do have to listen to them. And then I
think you have to work really hard. You have to
try to, you know, acquaint yourself with as many people
who you're trying to represent as possible, So hard work.
I think on a state senate level, certainly on a
state representative or a first selectman or a city council level,
(20:39):
how many doors you knock is going to be very important.
Once you get to the state senate, it's kind of
in between. I do knock on a lot of doors,
but then once you get to the congressional level or
the goubmnatorial level, then you have to find a way
to press flesh in different ways.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
But I would say working hard.
Speaker 3 (20:54):
To try to acquaint yourself with as many people as possible,
and then focusing on the issues that matter to the
most number of people, prioritizing those. For us in Connecticut,
it's the high cost of electricity, it's the high taxes,
it's other kind of idiosyncratic issues like whether decisions can
be made locally or at the state level regarding development
(21:15):
and other things.
Speaker 2 (21:17):
Maybe public safety is fourth. So I would say it's.
Speaker 3 (21:21):
Listening then focusing on the issues that the most people
care about religiously, and then working really hard to acquaint
yourself with as many people you're trying to represent as possible.
Speaker 1 (21:30):
Connecticut it's an interesting state because I grew up in
New York and in when I was young, Connecticut was
considered an ideal It was much safer for the New
York City was certainly in the early nineties when I
was growing up. It had no income tax until nineteen
ninety one. And Republicans had the governorship for a long time.
They had they were at least competitive at the state
legislative level. They had the state centered a few times
(21:51):
in the eighties and nineties, and they were tied in
twenty seventeen, and then it just takes this very sharp turn.
How as governor, if you that role, would you be
able to make Connecticut more affordable and ideal location, especially
for people from Massachusetts and New York or like, I
got to get out of here, but I have to,
like live somewhere close by. I have a relative, I
(22:11):
have a job, whatever, but I don't. I can't walk
to Florida, but I want to. I got to get
out of where I am right now. How do you
make a Connecticut more affordable with that?
Speaker 3 (22:19):
Well, as you said, Connecticut is a really great place.
You've got really great people.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
There's so much working in its advantage.
Speaker 3 (22:27):
You know, it's why people move out here like almost
like as a right of passage. You know, they age
out of New York City, they come they look to Connecticut.
Fewer people are doing that because it is so expensive
and the opportunity is lesser than it used to be.
Speaker 2 (22:42):
But you don't need to.
Speaker 3 (22:43):
Make it the most affordable place in the country. I mean,
that would be difficult to do.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
You just need to.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
Make it reasonable. So, for instance, at electricity costs have
been in the news a lot recently, but they've been
top of mind in Connecticut for longer than the rest
of the country. We have the third highest electric rates
in the country. Embedded in those electric rates in Connecticut
is a twenty percent what it's called a public benefits charge.
(23:09):
It's really a tax to fund over fifty different government programs. Basically,
the politicians in the state government in Connecticut they exhausted
their ability to tax people's incomes and their purchases so
much in the state budget that they started taxing them
through their electric bills.
Speaker 2 (23:25):
That was hidden for many, many years until.
Speaker 3 (23:28):
I passed the law two years ago that requires it
be disclosed how much this public benefits charge is in
people's electric bill every month. We can cut that reduce
electric rates by twenty percent. I think that not only
makes Connecticut more affordable, for example, but it also creates
more investment and job creation, especially in heavy industry technology, manufacturing,
(23:49):
and so on. You just have to limit the growth
of spending in the state in order to cut taxes substantially.
I have a plan for one five hundred dollars income
tax cut for the average family, and that doesn't even
require cutting again spending, just reducing the growth of spending,
reducing debt funded spending, and then also capping property taxes.
(24:14):
Other states have done property tax caps. Connecticut is in
the top five for highest property tax burdens in the country.
I think there are ways to do this without too
much difficulty, to make Connecticut more affordable. And then finally,
I would say, the probability is that when I'm elected governor,
I will still have at least a state House that
(24:34):
is Democrat, because the state House has not been Republican
in my lifetime.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
Not since nineteen eighty six.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
The state Senate sometimes will catch a lightning in a bottle.
The governorship we have one of several times in my lifetime.
But it's a powerful governorship. There's a line item veto,
so there's a lot of leverage you have as governor.
Not only that, I think I have success in building
relationships with moderate Democrats to move things forward. So I
think I wouldn't do this if I didn't think it
(25:01):
could be done. It can be done.
Speaker 1 (25:03):
You know a lot of times with blue state Republican governors.
There's two types right Like there's like Larry Hogan and
current governor of Vermont whose name just the B Scott,
Phil Scott, as I'm trying to reach it, Phil Scott
and Larry Hogan. For as much you know, bad names
as they get from national conservative outlets, they did a
(25:24):
lot to campaign for Republicans at the legislative level, versus
that of like a Chris Christy or Arnold Schwarzenegger who
did nothing for Republicans at the legislative level. They Chris
Christy wouldn't even let people put his name on the
ball when he was running for reelection and super popular.
What kind of approach would you take to supporting the
local and soutional Republican Party, Because that's a really big
question that a lot of a lot of I don't
(25:46):
want to call them ladder pullers, but there are some
like Larry Hogan worked really hard to get Republicans like
it locally, and in the last election Phil Scott almost
won the State Center in Vermont, something I did not
ever expect. Do you have an opinion about that, How
people approach that?
Speaker 3 (26:00):
Well, I put it this way. I've already said this,
so I have no promise saying it again. If I
could spend an extra hour talking to voters in a
place where there is a swing state senator state House
district or not, I will do it in the swing
state senator house district. It is very important, not just
in Connecticut but anywhere to elect good Republican legislators. It's
(26:25):
the difference between people leaving your state in droves over
many years, like in New York or California, or coming
to your state to seek the American dream in droves
like in Florida or Texas or Tennessee. I care about
that a lot, not least of which because I served
in the legislature. These people are my friends, they care,
(26:45):
they're good people.
Speaker 2 (26:47):
We need more of them.
Speaker 3 (26:48):
There are even Democrats in the state that if you
get them, I think a few beers deep in private,
that they will say, boy, we don't need any more
Democrats in the state legislature, where it's already two to one.
Were starting to lose our minds. You know, this is
very important. It's very important we elect more Republicans to
the legislature to achieve more balance for everyone's benefit. So
(27:12):
I would be the type of governor and gubernatorial candidate
who would.
Speaker 1 (27:15):
Prioritize that, you know, affordability. You mentioned it before, you know,
being a New Yorker Mandani, that's it was. His message
was that he was speaking to mostly progresses, but he
was speaking on an issue that people can sit there
and connect with. You know, we are several years out
of a high inflationary period. We're still in a fairly
weak job market situation where people looking for their first job.
(27:36):
How do you make the case as a Republican speaking
on the issue of affordability without sounding like Zoran? You know, like,
how does like what is the key issues to there?
And say, as a Republican like I want to make
life easier and more affordable to you, especially people are
age group will younger than me now because I'm like
sliding into middle age, but like people your age group
and younger who are like I want to buy my
(27:57):
first home, I want to get married, I want to
start a family.
Speaker 3 (28:01):
I think you can't fool people. I think they can
tell if you care. Mom DOMMI believes what he's saying.
What he's saying is insane, but he believes what he's saying.
Like there's there's that sort of like credibility, like people
know Trump like believes the things he's saying. They can
also tell that you know someone like Andrew Cuomo or
(28:23):
Kamala Harris, they don't believe the things they're saying. Let's
start by running for office. If you actually believe what
you're saying, then let's also make sure that what you're
saying makes sense and it's not a bunch of crap
like it is with Mom Dami. I think there is
a heavy I've actually done very well with young voters,
and I've done better with them over time. I don't
think it has to think. I don't think it's necessarily
(28:45):
my age I think that, you know, I've been saying
the same things over and over that not everyone has
been saying all the time. You know, I focus a
lot on electric costs, utility costs, economic opportunity, and growth.
Maybe in a slightly different way than I'll do, but
I've been talking about it for years, and I've been
talking about it because I really believe it, like in
(29:05):
my heart of hearts, that there's these performs we can
make to make the state genuinely affordable and genuinely create
opportunity for people who.
Speaker 2 (29:13):
Don't have it otherwise.
Speaker 3 (29:15):
You know, my first election, the largest highs the second
largest high school in the state is Greenwich High School.
Speaker 2 (29:21):
It's in my district.
Speaker 3 (29:23):
They do every presidential election, they do a mock election
and it's over two thousand kids vote in that election.
So it's actually a critical, massive.
Speaker 2 (29:31):
People sample size. It is a good sample size if
you're poster.
Speaker 3 (29:35):
So in my first race, I lost my first race
in twenty twenty against an incumbent. I lost it by
two percent in the in the district. I lost the
mock election at Greenwich High School by over ten percent.
In my last election, I was running for reelection. I
won my district by four percent. I won Greenwich High
School is mock election by over ten percent.
Speaker 2 (29:56):
So that's a shocking. I was shocked, and I was
more proud of that than it was actually winning your entire.
Speaker 1 (30:01):
Disc that's how do they How do they vote in
the presidential election?
Speaker 2 (30:05):
Do you remember?
Speaker 3 (30:05):
It probably shifted toward the redder, but he still lost.
He still lost the price. I just watch the whole
gen Z change. Yes, that I think it's partly that
gen Z is getting redder.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
I talked to a Polster. This is something complete side note,
but it's very interesting to polsting. So what is like
the main reason you see gen Z changing? And he
said because among COVID and all the things that everyone knows,
he says, something no one really thinks about is that
older gen Z still have Boomer parents. Younger gen Z
have gen X parents, and gen X is more conservative
than boomers are. Just something I think is fascinating about
(30:38):
all that. What. Okay, so you talk about winning your
local race, how do you win in Connecticut? I mean,
Connecticut has not voted for a republic since two thousand
and six, but they keep coming up slightly sure one
point in twenty ten two in twenty fourteen, three and
twenty eighteen. Twenty twenty two is not great, but the
governor was very popular time. But they come up such
(30:59):
just just missing it. How do you actually win?
Speaker 3 (31:03):
In some ways it's easier. In some ways, it's more challenging.
On the executive level. Voters are more willing to split
their tickets. You know, Kansas is willing to vote for
Democrats or governor. New England states. Every New England state
has voted for a Republican governor in this century, and
Connecticut was really close in twenty ten.
Speaker 2 (31:23):
Twenty fourteen, and twenty eighteen.
Speaker 3 (31:24):
As you say, I think it's because voters like the
first of all, they divorced their executives on the state
and local level from kind of national partisan politics. It's
still correlated, but they they're more willing to make an
individual decision. They're more willing to vote on practical issues,
and they like checks and balances. I do not think
(31:45):
the voters of Connecticut want one party rule with two
to one Democratic majorities. Or they're giving amnesty to criminal
convicted felon illegal immigrants, and they are imposing the third
highest electric grades in the country, and people are leaving
the stake. I don't think they want that. I think
they want something more practical.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
And more balanced.
Speaker 3 (32:06):
And you know, it's a matter of time if, if,
and only if we run good campaigns focused on the
issues that people care about the most, like their cost
of living, like public safety in a religious way. You know,
over and over again, we have to be disciplined about
what our priorities are, and those are the priorities, and
we also have to have some depth. We have to
(32:27):
be disciplined in our messaging. But we also have to
have depth. There has to be truth to what we're saying.
We have to know the issues. There has to be
that credibility there. I think I can present that credibility
as a candidate as a governor.
Speaker 2 (32:40):
So I think it's multipromped.
Speaker 1 (32:42):
Yeah, do you think that that's because of your time
in the legislature and your ability to reach across the
aisle or because of your consistency what would you say
is your leverage in that area?
Speaker 2 (32:52):
Then I think it's both.
Speaker 3 (32:53):
I know the issues very well, both from being in
the legislature, but also because I care about these I
care about economic policy, I care about out making sure
the American dream is something that is not you know, fleeting.
It's still accessible to people, especially in Connecticut. I know
the issues as well because I've spent four or five
years or four years in the legislature. Now I've won
(33:14):
really tough races. I think, you know, we we had
this thing, you know, where we just kind of parachute
in a wealthy, self funding candidate. And you know, some
of those people are really good people. I know them,
they're really good people. But I think having someone who
has you know, who is the battle scars from a
really tough race. You mentioned I wanted really blue a
(33:36):
pretty blue district multiple times. I also defeated the most
expensive state legislative campaign in state history last year in
order to be re elected. I think those battle scars
will prove useful running a state wide race.
Speaker 1 (33:49):
And your level of support has gone up every time,
and will give you the black credit because like, it's
not you, You're you had a little bit more breathing
room than you were. A zero point three percent victory.
I cannot imagine election night after the polls closed with that.
So we are five year post COVID, and that's kind
of what I wanted to bring up as I talked
about in amanalag We're five years post COVID. A lot
(34:10):
of people left Blue states, especially in New York, not
as much as Connecticut, but actually I move to Connecticut
because they got out of New York. But we are
five years post COVID, and a lot of conservatives in
blue states are asking themselves, do I just pack it in?
Do I just go to Florida? Do I just go
to Tennessee or Texas? And I mean I asked myself
(34:30):
questions like this all the time, too, So I'm not like,
it's not just a it's not just a hypothetical that
I've never thought of. Why is it worth staying in
your blue state and fighting.
Speaker 3 (34:38):
I think that you know where your home is matters.
I think politics is not just about ideas, it's also
about people and places. And this is my home. You know,
it's much easier to get elected as a Republican in
other places, but this place is my home. And I
think your home is worth fighting for the people you
know that intimately are are worth fighting for. And you
(35:01):
know we have in modern times politics become a lot
more partisan and polarized, but place and people still matter
in politics. Some politics is still local, maybe to borrow
or phrase, but I think people in places still matter,
and the place you're from still matters, and you know,
(35:23):
community still matters and makes people's lives richer. And so,
you know, I think devoting yourself or dedicating yourself to
you know, a positive change, even if it's less likely
in the place that you call home is is it's
a very rewarding thing. You know, winning my home district,
representing my home district that I grew up in, which
(35:45):
has also gotten gone from red to blue over many years,
that's a special feeling.
Speaker 2 (35:50):
You know.
Speaker 3 (35:51):
Seeing people on the campaign trail are representing people, are
helping people with constituent service who you know, you don't
know well, but you've you met twenty years ago when
you were a kid. That is kind of a special
thing to me. And I think it's it's gratifying to
anyone if it's you know, if you do it. So
that's why I think it's still important. It's not worth
(36:13):
giving up on. And it's also I mean, if Republicans
had governorships in places like New York or even Connecticut,
a lot of these redistricting fights that we're seeing now,
I think on a national level, we would they wouldn't
be going on because they would have these It wouldn't
be a nuclear war that we're seeing with changing congressional lines.
Where can people go to read it more about?
Speaker 1 (36:34):
You support? You donate to your candidacy? What do you
need from my listeners?
Speaker 2 (36:39):
Ryanfazio dot com is my website.
Speaker 3 (36:42):
You know, we're raising money, we're connecting with people, so
please go there to learn more.
Speaker 2 (36:47):
This is a grassroots effort and we need all the
help we can get.
Speaker 1 (36:51):
Last question, who is your Democratic opponent? I don't even
I know you have a primary opponent with former mayor
Aaron Aaron Stewart. I think your name is right together?
Speaker 2 (36:58):
Right, Okay?
Speaker 1 (37:00):
Who's your Democrat? Is the governing running for reelection?
Speaker 2 (37:02):
It's to be determined.
Speaker 3 (37:03):
We're waiting to see if he runs for a third
term or not. But whether it's him or another Democrat,
we're running for change and I think that's going to resonate.
Speaker 1 (37:14):
All right, Well, Ryan, thank you on this podcast. I
really appreciate it. Thank you, Ryan, you're listening to It's
a Numbers Game with Ryan Gradsky.
Speaker 2 (37:21):
We'll be right back now.
Speaker 1 (37:25):
It's time for the ask me anything segment. This comes
from Brent from Oklahoma, and he writes, how do you
spot an accurate polster? I think he's specifically as asking
on behalf of being someone who's polled, not someone who
is like looking at a pole. So he asked specifically
about money, about fraud. Fraudulent polsters who are asking for
(37:48):
money at the end of their poll one. A legitimate
pollster will never tell you who they're polling for. So
if you get a call from somebody who says I'm
pulling for the Peace and Love Party or I'm pulling
for the you know, Save the Dolphins Foundation, that's a polster.
I will probably ask you for money. Polsters who are
legitimate polsters do not ask, do not give their their
(38:10):
clients information out. So that's a big red flag right immediately.
You can ask what a you're pulling for. If they say,
we can't tell you that information, then that's a legit polster.
You can may be able to figure it out on
your own with certain terminology that they use. If they
use a chair like a word like access to abortion,
it's probably a right wing polster. If these were like abortion,
(38:33):
but they use right to choose as probably a left
wing polster. You can kind of figure out the words
that they're using. That's a that's a that's a one way.
Brent also asked about selling polling data. I have never
seen that happen, and I'll tell you why. When you're
pulling a congressional district or even a state in a primary,
you're pulling five hundred people, like I did a poll
(38:54):
for a governor's race in a plane state a couple
of months ago, and you know, it's like seventy percent
undecided at a five hundred person pole, So it's like
three hundred and fifty people saying they were undecided. I'm
not going to benefit by selling the people information. It's
not they represent the larger population. But it's not like
those three hundred fifty people individually are going to change
(39:16):
the race. A million people will vote, maybe they will
if it's super close, but no one's going to hunt
those three hundred four hundred voters down. Like that doesn't happen,
So I wouldn't worry so much about selling data. And
other polsters actually, if they it's a long pole, like you,
GUV sometimes pays people to take their poll. I think
that that's an important thing. But overall, those are the
(39:37):
things I would look for. As far as figuring out
who who are the legitimate polsters who are not the
legitimate polsters? I would sit there and say, if they
will tell you who they're pulling for, they are not legitimate,
and if they don't tell you, they probably are legitimate.
That's the first telltale sign. My next question comes from Tristan,
(39:58):
who says I saw on exit some districts are illegally
drawn in the new California map and they're not compliant
with Voting Rights Act Section two. I just mentioned Voting
Rights Act at the beginning of this podcast. If the
map passes in November and gets struck down by the courts,
are the courts the ones who draw the new map?
If so, how long could it take for that to
be effective? Okay, I heard that it was VRA compliant.
(40:21):
I think no matter what happens, a lawsuit will happen. Right,
A lawsuit's going to happen no matter what. The courts
in California are very democratic. There's only a few Republicans
left from the Schwarzenegger era. My best bet is that
it will go to the courts no matter what happens.
And then if the complaint's legitimate and they have a
real argument for the VRA, what they will likely do
(40:43):
is the court will appoint somebody to redraw the maps
and who knows how that happens, like who knows where
that goes? And the last time that happened for California
was in the in nineties or the Yeah, I think
it was nineteen ninety one. I mentioned the last podcast
episode and the court appointed a judge and the judge
(41:04):
having to be a former Republican. I don't think we'll
get that lucky this time. But the court will appoint somebody,
probably from the Independent Commission or something, and they'll give
guidelines and guidance to the person drawing the map, and
then we really won't know what's happening. Then it will
really go into crazy town.
Speaker 2 (41:22):
But I don't know.
Speaker 1 (41:23):
I heard that the VRA is complying with the VRA,
so I'll have to reread that. But if I find
anything new information on it, I will talk about it
on the next episode of the podcast as well. Anyway,
that's it for this part of Ask Me Anything. If
you want to be part of Ask Me Anything, email
me Ryan at numbers Game podcast dot com. That's ryanat
numbers Game podcast dot com. Thank you for listening again.
(41:45):
Please join me again on Monday. I have a great
episode for you, not on redistricting. I promise I've maxed
out that story and that topic for quite sometime. Please
like and subscribing the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you
get your podcasts. Thank you and we'll see then.