December 21, 2025 • 28 mins
Inflation has dropped to 2.7%—the lowest level since spring 2021. Core inflation sits at 2.6%, nearing the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Clay explains why this matters for everyday Americans, connecting the dots between Biden-era spending, skyrocketing prices, and the aggressive interest rate hikes that froze the housing market. He recalls how inflation surged to 9.1% in June 2022 after trillions in stimulus spending, driving mortgage rates above 7% and locking millions of homeowners into historically low rates from 2020–2021. This “housing freeze,” Clay argues, remains one of the biggest drags on economic mobility. Clay then pivots to President Trump’s primetime address, highlighting key announcements that could reshape the economic landscape.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Whether you're lighting a candle on the Manora or placing
Baby Jesus in the Nativity. We hope your holiday is
full of grace, wonder and love.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
And maybe even a little snow. Merry Christmas and happy
Honika from all of us at the Clay and Buck Show.
The Team forty seven podcast is sponsored by Good Ranchers
Making the American Farm Strong Again. Team forty seven with
Clay and Buck start Snow. Inflation has just come in
(00:33):
at the lowest level since the spring of twenty twenty one,
when cost of goods began to skyrocket under Joe Biden
as he poured trillions of dollars into the economy in
the early days of what I think it's fair to
call the worst administration in any of our lives. Inflation
(00:55):
comes in at two point seven percent. Again, the goal
for the Fed is two percent. We have been fighting
our way back down since I believe it was June
of twenty two. Team can correct me if I'm wrong
or right on that. I think it was June of
twenty two that inflation hit nine point one percent in
(01:16):
this country and necessitated a rapid rise overall in interest rates.
I'm going to actually break this down for you, because
a big part of the twenty twenty sixth election is
going to be based on cost of goods affordability. But
I want to give you the latest information. I'll give
(01:37):
you a couple of different ways that this broke down.
This was from CNBC economics reporter Steve Leisman. Here he
is on CNBC reacting in surprise to the numbers on
inflation coming in much lower than expected. Cut to the.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
Number of the morning the CPI, Oh, maybe coming in
a little bit better then expect that two point seven
percent a little light here. I'm not calling I'm just
reading the headlines here year over year two seven ex
Food and Energy Corps two six, So four tenths off.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
That is a very good number here, all right, very
good number. That is CNBC. Here is Maria Bartiromo. Side note.
I got to meet Maria Bartiromo for the first time.
I think it was in early November, uh at a
Fox event, and I was just giddy. And Buck would
(02:31):
tell you this, and my wife would tell you this.
I got to meet Joe Kernan. I was a kid
who liked to watch CNBC back in the day. So
Maria Bartiromo Joe Kernan for those of you who remember
that era when there was no competition. I was so
excited to meet her and she I was just giddy.
And the fact that she knew me and she said, oh,
(02:52):
I love what you and Buck are doing. That was awesome,
which reminds me we should get her on the program.
But here is Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo as this
news comes out, reacting to it. Cut one.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
Inflation is running at maybe two point nine percent right now, two.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Point seven percent year every year. Let me interrupt you.
Speaker 4 (03:10):
I'm sorry, Steve. Two point seven percent year of a
year is the number we were expecting. Two point six
percent is on core, two point six percent is core,
and two point seven percent is headline. This is better
than expected. We were expecting three percent on core. We
got two point six percent CPI for the month of November.
(03:31):
We got headline number of two point seven percent, much
better than the three point one percent expected. Markets are
on the move down dusters now at the highs of
the morning, up one hundred and sixty five on this number.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
Okay, as we speak to you, the Dow is near
and all time high. The s and P five hundred.
It is near in all time high, and the Nasdaq
is near an all time high. And uh, there's no
other way to spin it, says Harvard professor of economics
Ken Rogof here. He is reacting to it as well.
Again cut three.
Speaker 5 (04:03):
I mean, I was surprised. It was a better number
than anyone was expecting. Look, inflation's been very high. It's
stayed high, it has not been coming down. But you know,
people were expecting it to be above three percent. It
was well below three percent. I mean, I think the
president will take this as good news. The investors will
(04:25):
think that interest rates will get cut more. So, you
know it, it was a positive news. There's no other
way to spend it.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
Okay, we're going to get into President Trump's address last night,
but this news has come out since then, and you
might be saying, Okay, Clay, what impact does this have
on my life? Why does this matter? Let me kind
of lay it out for you a little bit. I
get that people are frustrated with what things cost, and
let me take you on a little bit of a
(04:53):
journey and try to make sense of what happened and
why you are angry, many of you, including me, at
what the cost of goods actually are. When Joe Biden
came into office in January of twenty twenty one, inflation
was right around two percent. That is the Fed's stated target.
(05:14):
Very low inflation that is hard to recognize in general
cost of goods two percent inflation. Almost immediately, the decision
that Biden's team made on the economy was, we have
to juice the economy coming out of COVID. There is
danger in not spending enough money. We have to make
(05:35):
sure that the federal government is the fire hose that
is trying to spray as much economic growth as we
can create. And remember Biden came into office and immediately
passed and spent trillions of dollars in spending increases because
that was their idea, Hey, we can't go too small.
(05:56):
We got to put as much money from the federal
government into this as we can. And what happened almost immediately,
overall inflation started to skyrocket because we were giving too
many people cash. We were still at that time telling
a lot of people stay home, eat cheetos. The government's
(06:17):
got your back. You don't have to worry about income,
you don't have to worry about paying for your cost
of goods. And the value of a dollar began to
plummet and inflation skyrocketed, and by June of twenty twenty two,
everything had gone up. We were at a nine point
one percent inflation rate overnight. And I know many of
(06:41):
you felt this. You would go out to get fast
food or buy a pizza for your family, and everything
just started costing way more than it should have. You
were looking around, you were saying, how in the world
did that pizza cost this much. I have talked about
it a lot because the place that my family goes
the most often is Chick fil A. I love Chick
(07:04):
fil A. My boys love Chick fil A. I've got
three growing boys suddenly going through the Chick fil A
drive through. Starting in twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two,
everything was over fifty dollars for my family. That fifty
dollars used to be. Hey, I can go have a
sit down meal. I can go to Logan's Roadhouse, I
(07:26):
can go to Applebee's, I can go to Chili's. I
can eat an affordable sit down meal with an actual
waitress coming to take our order. And all of you
felt this, And it wasn't just cost of goods, because
inflation skyrocketed so fast the overall rate of the FED
interest rates also began to skyrocket, and this is where
(07:51):
the cost of home started to explode at the same
time that interest rates took off. And for those of
you out there were fortunate enough to buy homes in
twenty twenty or twenty twenty one, you got two and
a half percent mortgage rates, fifteen year, three percent, thirty
year rates, all sorts of unbelievable mortgage rates. And then
(08:15):
suddenly the mortgage rates skyrocketed to over seven percent. And
a lot of you out there listening to me right now,
you're still in those homes, and you're saying, Clay, I'm
not going to move. I've got a two and a
half percent interest rate locked in. I've got a three
percent interest rate locked in. So the overall housing market
froze because a lot of people that otherwise might have
(08:37):
been considering moving to another home because interest rates skyrocketed
so fast. As inflation skyrocketed so fast, money was so
cheap that suddenly we had to raise the cost of
interest rates to try to bring down the overall rate
of inflation. And this was effectively the story of the
(08:57):
Biden administration, many people got locked in to homes, and
so many people got locked out of homes, and instead
of in the spring, typically when moms and dads out
there say hey we got a new kid, it's time
to move to a new school district, you're saying, hey,
we're not moving, We're locking in our two and a
half percent interest rate. And maybe your kids have left school,
(09:19):
going off to college, maybe you're thinking about retiring. You
don't need the same size home you've already had. You're
sitting around saying, why in the world would I sell
my home when I'm going to have to take on
a mortgage that's a lot higher. Price of homes has
gone up so much, everything was broken. That's the world
in which Trump returned to office in January of twenty
(09:42):
twenty five. And what he has tried to do is
focus on bringing down interest rates and bringing down inflation
and putting more money into your pocket. And it is
working now. The challenge is, I'm not sure that it's
going to work fast enough for people to feel it
(10:04):
in twenty twenty six. If we were having this conversation
next year, I think the economy is going to be
firing on all cylinders. I think the thing that you
care about the most, which is more money in your
pocket and the cost of goods increasing at a lower
rate than your overall wage growth, is that's the number one.
(10:24):
If you told me, hey, Clay, what is the number
one economic issue that you think matters the most, it
is you need to be making on average more money
in wage increase than the cost of the goods that
you are buying. That with that is how you feel
better about your wallet, about your pocketbook, about the money there.
Trump is trying to tell that story. Now. The challenge
(10:47):
is people are angry because of how bad Joe Biden was,
and as a result, telling that story is really challenging
because you risk sounding like you we don't understand what's
really going on on the ground. When you tell people
things are getting better but they can't feel it yet.
(11:09):
That is, to me, the story of twenty twenty six.
How much does the reality of things getting better start
to pierce into the expectations of people on the ground
out there because things are getting better. The numbers all
reflect that, but it takes a while of things being
(11:32):
better for people to start to feel it, and for
the anger of the unprecedented economic failures of the Biden
tenure to start to diminish. And this is why I
have made the argument. As you guys know, I love history.
Many of you lived through it. It took a while
for Ronald Reagan to actually start to get popular in
(11:54):
this country. He took over for Jimmy Carter, who was
an economic disaster. Reagan, it took four years for him
to catch fire and for people to recognize that all
of the supply side decisions he was making were starting
to juice the economy. And the inflation from Jimmy Carter
(12:15):
and the interest rates that everybody had to pay on
their mortgages. It took a while for people to recognize
that things were starting to get better. And some of
you who lived through that will remember people weren't sold
on Reagan in eighty one, eighty two, eighty three, and
then lo and behold, by eighty four, the ravages of
the Carter era are fading, and Reagan can go out
(12:37):
and win forty nine states. I'm not sure that we're
going to see a huge victory in twenty twenty six.
I am very confident, based on the decisions that are
being made right now that by twenty twenty eight, everything
is going to be firing on all cylinders. And if
you question me, remember where we were before COVID hit.
(13:02):
In February of twenty twenty. Trump was cruising to re election.
The economy was probably at that time the strongest it
had ever been, virtually no inflation, mortgage rates were incredibly low,
borrowing cost. Everything was starting to fire on all cylinders
in Trump one point zero. And then what happened COVID
(13:25):
and suddenly everything got shut down in March of twenty twenty,
and we bore the brunt of the disastrous decisions made
really in the early part of the Biden administration. While
we're spending time with family this holiday season and Buck
is stuck in a sound booth recording his new book,
you can listen to us on the podcast.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Play Don't Rub It In But That's Right. Just fire
up the iHeartRadio app and kick back with the Sunday
Hang guaranteed laughs, or check out any of our other
great hosts in the Clay and Buck podcast network.
Speaker 2 (13:59):
There's so much you won't even miss us, but.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
We'll miss you and look forward to speaking with you
again in the new year. Until then, she'll time you're
listening to Team forty seven. With Clay and Buck.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
Inflation two point seven percent, lowest in over four years,
and the core inflation two point six percent, we are
narrowing and increasingly almost to the Fed's overall goal for
where inflation should be. Positive news for those of you
out there, I think one point four to five million
(14:36):
of you that are in the current arm services. Trump
announced a Warrior dividend seventeen one hundred and seventy six
dollars non taxable lump sum payment. This is going to
be very popular as we head into the holiday season cut.
Speaker 6 (14:53):
For because of tariffs. Along with the just past one
big beautiful bill. Tonight, I am also so proud to
announce that more than one thousand, four hundred fifty thousand,
think of this, one million, four hundred and fifty thousand
military service members will receive a special we call Warrior
(15:15):
dividend before Christmas, so Warriot Dividend. In honor of our
nations founding in seventeen seventy six, we are sending every
soldier one thousand, seven hundred and seventy six dollars. Think
of that, and the checks are already on the way.
Nobody understood that one until about thirty minutes ago. We
(15:38):
made a lot more money than anybody thought because of tariffs,
and the bill helped us along. Nobody deserves it more
than our military. And I say congratulations everybody.
Speaker 2 (15:49):
That is very, very positive. So Merry Christmas to many
of you out there in the arms services. Let me
hit you with a couple of more comments and then
we'll go into the phone reactions. President Trump, For the
first time in fifty years, we are now seeing people
leaving the country as opposed to illegals coming into the country.
Cut five.
Speaker 6 (16:10):
The worst thing that the Biden administration did to our
country is the invasion at the border. The last administration
and their allies in Congress brought in millions and millions
of migrants and gave them taxpayer funded housing. While your
rent and housing costs kyrocketed. Over sixty percent of growth
in the rental market came from foreign migrants. At the
(16:32):
same time, illegal aliens soule American jobs and flooded emergency rooms,
getting free health care and education paid for by you,
the American taxpayer. For the first time in fifty years,
we are now seeing reverse migration, as migrants go back home,
leaving more housing and more jobs for Americans.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
Okay, and one more cut and then we'll go to
some of your reactions. Get ready. Trump is saying that
the spring tax season, unfortunately that we are projecting the
largest tax refunds of all time.
Speaker 6 (17:07):
Cut six Next year, you will also see the results
of the largest tax cuts in American history that were
really accomplished through our great, big, beautiful bill, perhaps the
most sweeping legislation ever passed in Congress. We wrapped twelve
different bills up into one beautiful bill that includes no
(17:28):
tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax
on Social Security for our great seniors. Under these cuts,
many families will be saving between eleven thousand and twenty
thousand dollars a year, and next spring is projected to
be the largest tax refund season of all time.
Speaker 2 (17:49):
Okay. So that was President Trump last night. We have
been laying out exactly what happened. Let me hit you
with this Andy from Minnesota. This is exactly what I'm
talking about when it comes to the housing market. So
many people who are fortunate enough to get great low
interest rates are just not going to move because the
(18:09):
interest rates have not come back down anywhere close to
what they used to be. Here is Andy in Minnesota.
Listen to his story. I think a lot of you
will understand and also not along because it is a
primary factor here in the way that the economy is stuck,
particularly relating to housing.
Speaker 7 (18:29):
Andy outa Minnesota here. My wife and I have been
talking about moving out of this hellhole state into one
that mora aligns with our beliefs. But we're stuck because
we're at a two and a half percent interest rate.
Speaker 8 (18:41):
I couldn't afford.
Speaker 7 (18:42):
Half the house nowadays as the new rate, with what
the housing market is done, we're stuck here, whether we
like it or not.
Speaker 2 (18:49):
And look, I think if you talk to people out
there in the mortgage industry, we're going to get another
roughly I think this is my projection in twenty twenty six.
I think it is likely that we are going to
have another three quarter point or one point decline in
the Federate, which is going to bring mortgage rates back
down into the fives. Hopefully the high fours not as
(19:13):
good as they were in twenty twenty one, but borrowing
costs are going to come down substantially, and I think
that's going to start to free up the housing market,
because you might not be willing to move if you're
having to go from a two and a half to
a six. But if you're going from a two and
a half percent interest rate to a four and a
half percent interest rate or a five percent interest rate,
(19:34):
maybe it starts to make a little bit more sense.
Let's see, Gary and Houston, you want to weigh in
on what President Trump was talking about when it comes
to cost of rent. We got about two million illegals
that have lost the country, left the country, and now
rents are starting to dial back as a result. It's
(19:56):
basic supply and demand. Gary, what you got for us?
Speaker 9 (20:00):
Well, just as President Trump said, the impact of the
illegal aliens of millions of illegal aliens, we had a
huge impact on rent, but everything else was as a result.
Will that in played and supply and demand a lot more,
a lot more demand and no more supply if it
(20:21):
goes up?
Speaker 2 (20:22):
Thank you?
Speaker 9 (20:22):
Thank the impact of the illegal aliens. We don't have
any idea how much is conscious.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
Thank you. I think he's one hundred percent right. I
believe in general that you're going to start to see
some of these rents dial back. Look there are two
things that I think are moving in a positive direction
when it comes to cost of rent. One is the
illegal immigrants leaving is driving down the people who are
buying up and renting. Two, supply continues to grow in
(20:55):
many parts of the country, and that combination of the
two will bring cost of goods back down to a
reasonable area. Let's see, we got a bunch of people
who want to weigh in. Oh, Bill, Bill in Wisconsin,
you think the Biden economy was actually great, Well, what.
Speaker 8 (21:14):
Was the rate of unemployment? Just tell me what it
was then and now? How many were more people employed
or less people employed? What's the answer?
Speaker 2 (21:23):
Well, the answer is that there were actually most of
Joe Biden's employment growth was actually in illegal immigrants Americans
who lived in the common This is true.
Speaker 8 (21:35):
Come on, that's mine, you know. Okay, let's talk about
the illegals. Let's talk about them. When we didn't have
these closed borders. Do you know how many illegals were
paying taxes to America and they weren't getting cadillacs and
they weren't getting free phones in.
Speaker 2 (21:52):
Well, okay, you think we should have more illegal immigration
in the country. What is the right number of illegal
immage that you would like to see here. Because Biden
let in around ten million that we know of the
illegals into the country, what would the right number have been?
Should we have let twenty million? In thirty million? What
do you think the right numbers?
Speaker 8 (22:13):
We could do a wonderful job of bringing people into
this country without concertina wire and everything else. The right
amount the numbers? So do you want right amount of number?
Is this? Here's the right amount of number, the number
that the country can handle.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
Now, okay, what's that number.
Speaker 8 (22:27):
I'm not gonna say fifty million?
Speaker 2 (22:30):
Go ahead, No, what number do you think that is?
Speaker 8 (22:33):
Okay? What number? I'll say ten million?
Speaker 2 (22:36):
Okay, So you think Biden and the border because he
let in ten million, you think he did a good
job at the border?
Speaker 8 (22:43):
Well? Did were we spending all the money, the billions
maybe trillions on ice? Were we spending all that wasteful
money tracking these people down who didn't have half the
felonies that your president has?
Speaker 2 (22:59):
Okay, So, Bill, how then do you listen to the show?
Speaker 8 (23:02):
I listened to a lot of used to listen to
Rush Limbaugh before.
Speaker 2 (23:05):
Okay, So did you what what do I say? Or
does Buck say? That you agree with.
Speaker 8 (23:11):
Well you do. I mean, yeah, there's there's points to
agree with. We can find. You brought up something the
other day that I thought. Now we're on the same page.
You know, I grew up in the era of Dwight Eisenhower,
and I'm met. I'm older than you are, a lot older.
Back then, we had something called honesty, integrity, diplomacy, and humanitarianism.
That's all gone, presently all gone. It's important that.
Speaker 2 (23:35):
Vote for president. Did you have a president Trump or Kamala? U?
Speaker 8 (23:40):
Kamala without a doubt. I mean she's educated.
Speaker 2 (23:44):
Okay, So you wish that we had Kamala Harris, you
were I'm assuming a white dude for Kamala.
Speaker 8 (23:51):
Yes, I wasn't. Wait, You're done right, because she had
as a for a lady, she had a backbone, she
stood when she made a mistake, she dealt with it.
She didn't blame it on somebody else. She was had character.
This guy you've got now, remember he's a touch show host.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
Yeah that's all am I he's a to show. How
do you think I would do as president?
Speaker 8 (24:13):
By the way, I gotta say something for you on
your behalf. I want to give me a pat in
the back and I'm not joking. Thanks for at least
having an open end debate. I appreciate that with Americans.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
Well, thank you for listening more of it. Thank I
do agree we need more debate. Thank you for listening. Bill.
I didn't know that Bill in Wisconsin was going to
call in and be a white dude for Harris and say, hey,
we need more open borders. I actually think that, you know,
if some of you are going to say, oh, Bill,
you know, it's crazy, I don't agree with. I actually
appreciate when people just own what they think. Most people
(24:45):
won't say what Bill said. This is the question. Look,
I would love to have Kamala Harris on this program
because the question that Bill was asked is one that
I think Democrats should have to answer. Okay, we need
more immigration. What is the number of people that would
be too many to come into the country right because look,
(25:06):
I mean there are eight billion people that live in
the world right now. Eight billion. Okay, h we are
so incredibly fortunate to be around. I think the population
of the United States around three hundred and forty million.
And here's a great stat for you. How big is
this country? Do you know that just in Texas, every
(25:27):
single American could live in Texas on a one acre
yard and the rest of the country could still be empty.
Think about it. That's how big the state of Texas is.
But that's how vast the country is. Okay, But at
some point in time there is a number where we
sit around and say, there's eight billion people in the world.
(25:50):
I bet that seven billion of them, if you ask them,
would say, yeah, I would like to live in the
United States. I really believe that. I think huge majorities
of people in Asia and Africa and Europe and everywhere
around the world. I think if you said, despite the
fact that people say, oh I hate America now, you
could pick any country in the world to live in,
(26:12):
I think about seven billion of those people, if they
were being honest, would say I'd like to live in
the United States. So for those of us that are
born in the United States, we have received the greatest
gift that could ever be out there that we were
born in America and we get to live in the
greatest country, the wealthiest country, the freest country that I
believe has ever existed in the history of the world.
And the way Warren Buffett puts it, is I think
(26:32):
such a great way of thinking about it. He says, Look,
if every person in the world was a marble, and
there was just a big collection of all those marbles,
and you had your marble and that represented the life
that you are living today, would you trade your marble
with a random marble that you could just pull out
of that eight billion? And he says, and this is true. Basically,
(26:57):
no American should ever make that trade. That is, no
matter what life you are living. Right now, almost every
American is wealthier than who you would draw out. There's
a good stat the poorest Americans are far wealthier than
almost the wealthiest people who live in most countries around
(27:19):
the world. The poorest Americans would be in the top
twenty percent wealthiest people in India right now. Right the
standard of living here, even for the people who are
the bottom of the economic ladder in the United States,
is vastly higher than almost the peak for the vast majority.
Speaker 9 (27:38):
Of the world.
Speaker 2 (27:40):
So everybody wants to come here. My argument would be
that we should have almost almost no, almost no zero
people who come into this country and aren't able to
immediately make a living. If you're going to become a
ward of the state. If you're going to need welfare,
should never be allowed to come in here.
Whether you're lighting a candle on the Manora or placing
Baby Jesus in the Nativity. We hope your holiday is
full of grace, wonder and love.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
And maybe even a little snow. Merry Christmas and happy
Honika from all of us at the Clay and Buck Show.
The Team forty seven podcast is sponsored by Good Ranchers
Making the American Farm Strong Again. Team forty seven with
Clay and Buck start Snow. Inflation has just come in
(00:33):
at the lowest level since the spring of twenty twenty one,
when cost of goods began to skyrocket under Joe Biden
as he poured trillions of dollars into the economy in
the early days of what I think it's fair to
call the worst administration in any of our lives. Inflation
(00:55):
comes in at two point seven percent. Again, the goal
for the Fed is two percent. We have been fighting
our way back down since I believe it was June
of twenty two. Team can correct me if I'm wrong
or right on that. I think it was June of
twenty two that inflation hit nine point one percent in
(01:16):
this country and necessitated a rapid rise overall in interest rates.
I'm going to actually break this down for you, because
a big part of the twenty twenty sixth election is
going to be based on cost of goods affordability. But
I want to give you the latest information. I'll give
(01:37):
you a couple of different ways that this broke down.
This was from CNBC economics reporter Steve Leisman. Here he
is on CNBC reacting in surprise to the numbers on
inflation coming in much lower than expected. Cut to the.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
Number of the morning the CPI, Oh, maybe coming in
a little bit better then expect that two point seven
percent a little light here. I'm not calling I'm just
reading the headlines here year over year two seven ex
Food and Energy Corps two six, So four tenths off.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
That is a very good number here, all right, very
good number. That is CNBC. Here is Maria Bartiromo. Side note.
I got to meet Maria Bartiromo for the first time.
I think it was in early November, uh at a
Fox event, and I was just giddy. And Buck would
(02:31):
tell you this, and my wife would tell you this.
I got to meet Joe Kernan. I was a kid
who liked to watch CNBC back in the day. So
Maria Bartiromo Joe Kernan for those of you who remember
that era when there was no competition. I was so
excited to meet her and she I was just giddy.
And the fact that she knew me and she said, oh,
(02:52):
I love what you and Buck are doing. That was awesome,
which reminds me we should get her on the program.
But here is Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo as this
news comes out, reacting to it. Cut one.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
Inflation is running at maybe two point nine percent right now, two.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Point seven percent year every year. Let me interrupt you.
Speaker 4 (03:10):
I'm sorry, Steve. Two point seven percent year of a
year is the number we were expecting. Two point six
percent is on core, two point six percent is core,
and two point seven percent is headline. This is better
than expected. We were expecting three percent on core. We
got two point six percent CPI for the month of November.
(03:31):
We got headline number of two point seven percent, much
better than the three point one percent expected. Markets are
on the move down dusters now at the highs of
the morning, up one hundred and sixty five on this number.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
Okay, as we speak to you, the Dow is near
and all time high. The s and P five hundred.
It is near in all time high, and the Nasdaq
is near an all time high. And uh, there's no
other way to spin it, says Harvard professor of economics
Ken Rogof here. He is reacting to it as well.
Again cut three.
Speaker 5 (04:03):
I mean, I was surprised. It was a better number
than anyone was expecting. Look, inflation's been very high. It's
stayed high, it has not been coming down. But you know,
people were expecting it to be above three percent. It
was well below three percent. I mean, I think the
president will take this as good news. The investors will
(04:25):
think that interest rates will get cut more. So, you
know it, it was a positive news. There's no other
way to spend it.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
Okay, we're going to get into President Trump's address last night,
but this news has come out since then, and you
might be saying, Okay, Clay, what impact does this have
on my life? Why does this matter? Let me kind
of lay it out for you a little bit. I
get that people are frustrated with what things cost, and
let me take you on a little bit of a
(04:53):
journey and try to make sense of what happened and
why you are angry, many of you, including me, at
what the cost of goods actually are. When Joe Biden
came into office in January of twenty twenty one, inflation
was right around two percent. That is the Fed's stated target.
(05:14):
Very low inflation that is hard to recognize in general
cost of goods two percent inflation. Almost immediately, the decision
that Biden's team made on the economy was, we have
to juice the economy coming out of COVID. There is
danger in not spending enough money. We have to make
(05:35):
sure that the federal government is the fire hose that
is trying to spray as much economic growth as we
can create. And remember Biden came into office and immediately
passed and spent trillions of dollars in spending increases because
that was their idea, Hey, we can't go too small.
(05:56):
We got to put as much money from the federal
government into this as we can. And what happened almost immediately,
overall inflation started to skyrocket because we were giving too
many people cash. We were still at that time telling
a lot of people stay home, eat cheetos. The government's
(06:17):
got your back. You don't have to worry about income,
you don't have to worry about paying for your cost
of goods. And the value of a dollar began to
plummet and inflation skyrocketed, and by June of twenty twenty two,
everything had gone up. We were at a nine point
one percent inflation rate overnight. And I know many of
(06:41):
you felt this. You would go out to get fast
food or buy a pizza for your family, and everything
just started costing way more than it should have. You
were looking around, you were saying, how in the world
did that pizza cost this much. I have talked about
it a lot because the place that my family goes
the most often is Chick fil A. I love Chick
(07:04):
fil A. My boys love Chick fil A. I've got
three growing boys suddenly going through the Chick fil A
drive through. Starting in twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two,
everything was over fifty dollars for my family. That fifty
dollars used to be. Hey, I can go have a
sit down meal. I can go to Logan's Roadhouse, I
(07:26):
can go to Applebee's, I can go to Chili's. I
can eat an affordable sit down meal with an actual
waitress coming to take our order. And all of you
felt this, And it wasn't just cost of goods, because
inflation skyrocketed so fast the overall rate of the FED
interest rates also began to skyrocket, and this is where
(07:51):
the cost of home started to explode at the same
time that interest rates took off. And for those of
you out there were fortunate enough to buy homes in
twenty twenty or twenty twenty one, you got two and
a half percent mortgage rates, fifteen year, three percent, thirty
year rates, all sorts of unbelievable mortgage rates. And then
(08:15):
suddenly the mortgage rates skyrocketed to over seven percent. And
a lot of you out there listening to me right now,
you're still in those homes, and you're saying, Clay, I'm
not going to move. I've got a two and a
half percent interest rate locked in. I've got a three
percent interest rate locked in. So the overall housing market
froze because a lot of people that otherwise might have
(08:37):
been considering moving to another home because interest rates skyrocketed
so fast. As inflation skyrocketed so fast, money was so
cheap that suddenly we had to raise the cost of
interest rates to try to bring down the overall rate
of inflation. And this was effectively the story of the
(08:57):
Biden administration, many people got locked in to homes, and
so many people got locked out of homes, and instead
of in the spring, typically when moms and dads out
there say hey we got a new kid, it's time
to move to a new school district, you're saying, hey,
we're not moving, We're locking in our two and a
half percent interest rate. And maybe your kids have left school,
(09:19):
going off to college, maybe you're thinking about retiring. You
don't need the same size home you've already had. You're
sitting around saying, why in the world would I sell
my home when I'm going to have to take on
a mortgage that's a lot higher. Price of homes has
gone up so much, everything was broken. That's the world
in which Trump returned to office in January of twenty
(09:42):
twenty five. And what he has tried to do is
focus on bringing down interest rates and bringing down inflation
and putting more money into your pocket. And it is
working now. The challenge is, I'm not sure that it's
going to work fast enough for people to feel it
(10:04):
in twenty twenty six. If we were having this conversation
next year, I think the economy is going to be
firing on all cylinders. I think the thing that you
care about the most, which is more money in your
pocket and the cost of goods increasing at a lower
rate than your overall wage growth, is that's the number one.
(10:24):
If you told me, hey, Clay, what is the number
one economic issue that you think matters the most, it
is you need to be making on average more money
in wage increase than the cost of the goods that
you are buying. That with that is how you feel
better about your wallet, about your pocketbook, about the money there.
Trump is trying to tell that story. Now. The challenge
(10:47):
is people are angry because of how bad Joe Biden was,
and as a result, telling that story is really challenging
because you risk sounding like you we don't understand what's
really going on on the ground. When you tell people
things are getting better but they can't feel it yet.
(11:09):
That is, to me, the story of twenty twenty six.
How much does the reality of things getting better start
to pierce into the expectations of people on the ground
out there because things are getting better. The numbers all
reflect that, but it takes a while of things being
(11:32):
better for people to start to feel it, and for
the anger of the unprecedented economic failures of the Biden
tenure to start to diminish. And this is why I
have made the argument. As you guys know, I love history.
Many of you lived through it. It took a while
for Ronald Reagan to actually start to get popular in
(11:54):
this country. He took over for Jimmy Carter, who was
an economic disaster. Reagan, it took four years for him
to catch fire and for people to recognize that all
of the supply side decisions he was making were starting
to juice the economy. And the inflation from Jimmy Carter
(12:15):
and the interest rates that everybody had to pay on
their mortgages. It took a while for people to recognize
that things were starting to get better. And some of
you who lived through that will remember people weren't sold
on Reagan in eighty one, eighty two, eighty three, and
then lo and behold, by eighty four, the ravages of
the Carter era are fading, and Reagan can go out
(12:37):
and win forty nine states. I'm not sure that we're
going to see a huge victory in twenty twenty six.
I am very confident, based on the decisions that are
being made right now that by twenty twenty eight, everything
is going to be firing on all cylinders. And if
you question me, remember where we were before COVID hit.
(13:02):
In February of twenty twenty. Trump was cruising to re election.
The economy was probably at that time the strongest it
had ever been, virtually no inflation, mortgage rates were incredibly low,
borrowing cost. Everything was starting to fire on all cylinders
in Trump one point zero. And then what happened COVID
(13:25):
and suddenly everything got shut down in March of twenty twenty,
and we bore the brunt of the disastrous decisions made
really in the early part of the Biden administration. While
we're spending time with family this holiday season and Buck
is stuck in a sound booth recording his new book,
you can listen to us on the podcast.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Play Don't Rub It In But That's Right. Just fire
up the iHeartRadio app and kick back with the Sunday
Hang guaranteed laughs, or check out any of our other
great hosts in the Clay and Buck podcast network.
Speaker 2 (13:59):
There's so much you won't even miss us, but.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
We'll miss you and look forward to speaking with you
again in the new year. Until then, she'll time you're
listening to Team forty seven. With Clay and Buck.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
Inflation two point seven percent, lowest in over four years,
and the core inflation two point six percent, we are
narrowing and increasingly almost to the Fed's overall goal for
where inflation should be. Positive news for those of you
out there, I think one point four to five million
(14:36):
of you that are in the current arm services. Trump
announced a Warrior dividend seventeen one hundred and seventy six
dollars non taxable lump sum payment. This is going to
be very popular as we head into the holiday season cut.
Speaker 6 (14:53):
For because of tariffs. Along with the just past one
big beautiful bill. Tonight, I am also so proud to
announce that more than one thousand, four hundred fifty thousand,
think of this, one million, four hundred and fifty thousand
military service members will receive a special we call Warrior
(15:15):
dividend before Christmas, so Warriot Dividend. In honor of our
nations founding in seventeen seventy six, we are sending every
soldier one thousand, seven hundred and seventy six dollars. Think
of that, and the checks are already on the way.
Nobody understood that one until about thirty minutes ago. We
(15:38):
made a lot more money than anybody thought because of tariffs,
and the bill helped us along. Nobody deserves it more
than our military. And I say congratulations everybody.
Speaker 2 (15:49):
That is very, very positive. So Merry Christmas to many
of you out there in the arms services. Let me
hit you with a couple of more comments and then
we'll go into the phone reactions. President Trump, For the
first time in fifty years, we are now seeing people
leaving the country as opposed to illegals coming into the country.
Cut five.
Speaker 6 (16:10):
The worst thing that the Biden administration did to our
country is the invasion at the border. The last administration
and their allies in Congress brought in millions and millions
of migrants and gave them taxpayer funded housing. While your
rent and housing costs kyrocketed. Over sixty percent of growth
in the rental market came from foreign migrants. At the
(16:32):
same time, illegal aliens soule American jobs and flooded emergency rooms,
getting free health care and education paid for by you,
the American taxpayer. For the first time in fifty years,
we are now seeing reverse migration, as migrants go back home,
leaving more housing and more jobs for Americans.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
Okay, and one more cut and then we'll go to
some of your reactions. Get ready. Trump is saying that
the spring tax season, unfortunately that we are projecting the
largest tax refunds of all time.
Speaker 6 (17:07):
Cut six Next year, you will also see the results
of the largest tax cuts in American history that were
really accomplished through our great, big, beautiful bill, perhaps the
most sweeping legislation ever passed in Congress. We wrapped twelve
different bills up into one beautiful bill that includes no
(17:28):
tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax
on Social Security for our great seniors. Under these cuts,
many families will be saving between eleven thousand and twenty
thousand dollars a year, and next spring is projected to
be the largest tax refund season of all time.
Speaker 2 (17:49):
Okay. So that was President Trump last night. We have
been laying out exactly what happened. Let me hit you
with this Andy from Minnesota. This is exactly what I'm
talking about when it comes to the housing market. So
many people who are fortunate enough to get great low
interest rates are just not going to move because the
(18:09):
interest rates have not come back down anywhere close to
what they used to be. Here is Andy in Minnesota.
Listen to his story. I think a lot of you
will understand and also not along because it is a
primary factor here in the way that the economy is stuck,
particularly relating to housing.
Speaker 7 (18:29):
Andy outa Minnesota here. My wife and I have been
talking about moving out of this hellhole state into one
that mora aligns with our beliefs. But we're stuck because
we're at a two and a half percent interest rate.
Speaker 8 (18:41):
I couldn't afford.
Speaker 7 (18:42):
Half the house nowadays as the new rate, with what
the housing market is done, we're stuck here, whether we
like it or not.
Speaker 2 (18:49):
And look, I think if you talk to people out
there in the mortgage industry, we're going to get another
roughly I think this is my projection in twenty twenty six.
I think it is likely that we are going to
have another three quarter point or one point decline in
the Federate, which is going to bring mortgage rates back
down into the fives. Hopefully the high fours not as
(19:13):
good as they were in twenty twenty one, but borrowing
costs are going to come down substantially, and I think
that's going to start to free up the housing market,
because you might not be willing to move if you're
having to go from a two and a half to
a six. But if you're going from a two and
a half percent interest rate to a four and a
half percent interest rate or a five percent interest rate,
(19:34):
maybe it starts to make a little bit more sense.
Let's see, Gary and Houston, you want to weigh in
on what President Trump was talking about when it comes
to cost of rent. We got about two million illegals
that have lost the country, left the country, and now
rents are starting to dial back as a result. It's
(19:56):
basic supply and demand. Gary, what you got for us?
Speaker 9 (20:00):
Well, just as President Trump said, the impact of the
illegal aliens of millions of illegal aliens, we had a
huge impact on rent, but everything else was as a result.
Will that in played and supply and demand a lot more,
a lot more demand and no more supply if it
(20:21):
goes up?
Speaker 2 (20:22):
Thank you?
Speaker 9 (20:22):
Thank the impact of the illegal aliens. We don't have
any idea how much is conscious.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
Thank you. I think he's one hundred percent right. I
believe in general that you're going to start to see
some of these rents dial back. Look there are two
things that I think are moving in a positive direction
when it comes to cost of rent. One is the
illegal immigrants leaving is driving down the people who are
buying up and renting. Two, supply continues to grow in
(20:55):
many parts of the country, and that combination of the
two will bring cost of goods back down to a
reasonable area. Let's see, we got a bunch of people
who want to weigh in. Oh, Bill, Bill in Wisconsin,
you think the Biden economy was actually great, Well, what.
Speaker 8 (21:14):
Was the rate of unemployment? Just tell me what it
was then and now? How many were more people employed
or less people employed? What's the answer?
Speaker 2 (21:23):
Well, the answer is that there were actually most of
Joe Biden's employment growth was actually in illegal immigrants Americans
who lived in the common This is true.
Speaker 8 (21:35):
Come on, that's mine, you know. Okay, let's talk about
the illegals. Let's talk about them. When we didn't have
these closed borders. Do you know how many illegals were
paying taxes to America and they weren't getting cadillacs and
they weren't getting free phones in.
Speaker 2 (21:52):
Well, okay, you think we should have more illegal immigration
in the country. What is the right number of illegal
immage that you would like to see here. Because Biden
let in around ten million that we know of the
illegals into the country, what would the right number have been?
Should we have let twenty million? In thirty million? What
do you think the right numbers?
Speaker 8 (22:13):
We could do a wonderful job of bringing people into
this country without concertina wire and everything else. The right
amount the numbers? So do you want right amount of number?
Is this? Here's the right amount of number, the number
that the country can handle.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
Now, okay, what's that number.
Speaker 8 (22:27):
I'm not gonna say fifty million?
Speaker 2 (22:30):
Go ahead, No, what number do you think that is?
Speaker 8 (22:33):
Okay? What number? I'll say ten million?
Speaker 2 (22:36):
Okay, So you think Biden and the border because he
let in ten million, you think he did a good
job at the border?
Speaker 8 (22:43):
Well? Did were we spending all the money, the billions
maybe trillions on ice? Were we spending all that wasteful
money tracking these people down who didn't have half the
felonies that your president has?
Speaker 2 (22:59):
Okay, So, Bill, how then do you listen to the show?
Speaker 8 (23:02):
I listened to a lot of used to listen to
Rush Limbaugh before.
Speaker 2 (23:05):
Okay, So did you what what do I say? Or
does Buck say? That you agree with.
Speaker 8 (23:11):
Well you do. I mean, yeah, there's there's points to
agree with. We can find. You brought up something the
other day that I thought. Now we're on the same page.
You know, I grew up in the era of Dwight Eisenhower,
and I'm met. I'm older than you are, a lot older.
Back then, we had something called honesty, integrity, diplomacy, and humanitarianism.
That's all gone, presently all gone. It's important that.
Speaker 2 (23:35):
Vote for president. Did you have a president Trump or Kamala? U?
Speaker 8 (23:40):
Kamala without a doubt. I mean she's educated.
Speaker 2 (23:44):
Okay, So you wish that we had Kamala Harris, you
were I'm assuming a white dude for Kamala.
Speaker 8 (23:51):
Yes, I wasn't. Wait, You're done right, because she had
as a for a lady, she had a backbone, she
stood when she made a mistake, she dealt with it.
She didn't blame it on somebody else. She was had character.
This guy you've got now, remember he's a touch show host.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
Yeah that's all am I he's a to show. How
do you think I would do as president?
Speaker 8 (24:13):
By the way, I gotta say something for you on
your behalf. I want to give me a pat in
the back and I'm not joking. Thanks for at least
having an open end debate. I appreciate that with Americans.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
Well, thank you for listening more of it. Thank I
do agree we need more debate. Thank you for listening. Bill.
I didn't know that Bill in Wisconsin was going to
call in and be a white dude for Harris and say, hey,
we need more open borders. I actually think that, you know,
if some of you are going to say, oh, Bill,
you know, it's crazy, I don't agree with. I actually
appreciate when people just own what they think. Most people
(24:45):
won't say what Bill said. This is the question. Look,
I would love to have Kamala Harris on this program
because the question that Bill was asked is one that
I think Democrats should have to answer. Okay, we need
more immigration. What is the number of people that would
be too many to come into the country right because look,
(25:06):
I mean there are eight billion people that live in
the world right now. Eight billion. Okay, h we are
so incredibly fortunate to be around. I think the population
of the United States around three hundred and forty million.
And here's a great stat for you. How big is
this country? Do you know that just in Texas, every
(25:27):
single American could live in Texas on a one acre
yard and the rest of the country could still be empty.
Think about it. That's how big the state of Texas is.
But that's how vast the country is. Okay, But at
some point in time there is a number where we
sit around and say, there's eight billion people in the world.
(25:50):
I bet that seven billion of them, if you ask them,
would say, yeah, I would like to live in the
United States. I really believe that. I think huge majorities
of people in Asia and Africa and Europe and everywhere
around the world. I think if you said, despite the
fact that people say, oh I hate America now, you
could pick any country in the world to live in,
(26:12):
I think about seven billion of those people, if they
were being honest, would say I'd like to live in
the United States. So for those of us that are
born in the United States, we have received the greatest
gift that could ever be out there that we were
born in America and we get to live in the
greatest country, the wealthiest country, the freest country that I
believe has ever existed in the history of the world.
And the way Warren Buffett puts it, is I think
(26:32):
such a great way of thinking about it. He says, Look,
if every person in the world was a marble, and
there was just a big collection of all those marbles,
and you had your marble and that represented the life
that you are living today, would you trade your marble
with a random marble that you could just pull out
of that eight billion? And he says, and this is true. Basically,
(26:57):
no American should ever make that trade. That is, no
matter what life you are living. Right now, almost every
American is wealthier than who you would draw out. There's
a good stat the poorest Americans are far wealthier than
almost the wealthiest people who live in most countries around
(27:19):
the world. The poorest Americans would be in the top
twenty percent wealthiest people in India right now. Right the
standard of living here, even for the people who are
the bottom of the economic ladder in the United States,
is vastly higher than almost the peak for the vast majority.
Speaker 9 (27:38):
Of the world.
Speaker 2 (27:40):
So everybody wants to come here. My argument would be
that we should have almost almost no, almost no zero
people who come into this country and aren't able to
immediately make a living. If you're going to become a
ward of the state. If you're going to need welfare,
should never be allowed to come in here.
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