August 26, 2025 • 26 mins
In this episode, Lisa and Sentinel Action Fund President Jessica Anderson examine the shifting political landscape ahead of the midterms. They highlight a dramatic 45 million voter swing toward Republicans since 2020, discuss the GOP’s improved campaign infrastructure, and emphasize the enduring influence of President Trump’s agenda. The conversation covers key battleground races, redistricting advantages, and the Democrats’ declining popularity. The Truth with Lisa Boothe is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Tuesday & Thursday.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Truth with Lisa Booth, where we get
to the heart of the issues that matter to you. Today,
we're getting to the heart of the mid term elections,
the shifting political landscape ahead of it. We're going to
dig into it with Jessica Anderson. She is the president
of the Sentinel Action Fund. You might remember her from
before the twenty twenty four election. We had her on
(00:23):
the show and she wisely and astutelee told us not
to worry about the early voting and the mail in ballots,
that they were not cannibalizing the election day vote. I
don't know if you remember, but that was the message
from the left heading into election day that because Republicans
were having a strong early turnout, that would mean that
they would not have a strong turnout on election day.
She was right, The left and the media were wrong.
(00:45):
So that's why we're having her on again today. But
we're going to talk about a really interesting new development,
this report from the New York Times talking about a
seismic four point five million voter swing towards Republicans since
two thousand and two. Why is that happening?
Speaker 2 (01:01):
What does it mean.
Speaker 1 (01:02):
We'll also break down some of these key Bellweather races
coming up this November. Prior to next November, you've got
those gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
We'll talk about that.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
Also, we've got a redistricting arms race. What does that
mean for the midterm elections. All of that and more,
obviously a lot to dig into with Jessica Anderson. Stay tuned,
Jessica Anderson, It's great to have you on. I think
since we last had you on, well, we won the election.
(01:34):
A lot happened. President Trump won the popular vote and
the Republicans, you know, took power of all of Washington DC,
so kind of a big deal.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
So I did a big deal.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
Yeah, and you're a big part of that at the
Sentinel Action Fund, and you know, getting those early votes
and those mail and ballot votes.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
So but yeah, so a lots change's changed.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Actually, I think, Lisa, the last time we talked was
me trying to tell everyone, including your faithful listeners, that no,
the early vote was not going to steal from election day.
We are still going to win this thing, and we're
going to win these Senate races. And people thought we
were nuts, you know, and so I think we've proven
that absentee ballot early vote can work, and we've proven
(02:19):
that low propensity first time Trump voters are the special
sauce of the Republican Party right now, and Trump's magnetism
to these voters is just critical.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
So a lot, a lot has happened since last year.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
You're right, you did tell me that, and I think
I went on Lori Ingram that night on the Ingram Mangle,
and I believe it was like Jessica Anderson with the
Sentinel Action told me that it is not cannibalizing election
day voters, and everyone looked shocked.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
But you're right, which is why we're having you back to.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
Talk about, you know, what's ahead with the midterm election.
In the midterms, so I wanted to get your takes.
So the New York Times had a report recently sort
of highlighting this like big shift in voter registration trends
that we've seen since the twenty twenty election in really
big impact on the Democrat party. Looking about like twenty
(03:12):
I think thirty different states plus DC looking at the
states that track voter registration by political party and finding
that Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one,
which has resulted in a net swing of four point
five million voters toward the Republican Party. That is a
significant shift. Talk about the significance of that and why
(03:34):
that matters, particularly heading into this midterm election.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
It's remarkable that it took the New York Times to
do this analysis to kind of get everyone in the
political chattering class to realize that this big shift has
been happening, because I think people like you and I
have seen this on the ground really the last four
years in particular. And I think there's two things that
(03:58):
are happening at once. First, the Democratic Party is just
in a total free fall when it comes to policy.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
So you have, you know.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Major groups of people that are changing their voter registration.
They're leaving blue states to move to states you look like.
You look at like the exodus from California to Idaho
or to Texas, and you're seeing, you know, major chunks
of Democrats say we're fed up with the policies of
Gavin Newsosen, We're going to move to a red state.
(04:29):
And then they're re registering there either as an independent
or as a Republican. So I think that's really interesting.
The post COVID movement of voters specifically attached to the
failed policies and the flawed candidates. And this is happening
at the exact same time that the Republican Party looked
inward and realized after twenty twenty that they needed to
(04:52):
build long term campaign infrastructure and have a more robust
get out the vote approach. I think we saw this,
you know, you and I just joked about it and
the opener, but you know, we saw this at full
scale in twenty twenty four when Republicans, you know, really
did three things.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
Well.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
They narrowed the Democratic's historic advantage that Democrats have usually
had in early voting.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
They registered new voters.
Speaker 3 (05:18):
You see this in a key state like Pennsylvania that
was both important for the Senate and the presidential turning
out those low propensity, first time Trump voters in those
states that had just been registered six months prior. And
then the third thing that I'm most excited about, and
I think we as a party, and certainly those of
us at Sentinal Action Fund are super pumped about, is
(05:39):
you can have a durable, long term political infrastructure to
mobilize those newly registered voters early. And the key is
you got to turn them out so Democrats have had
this forever because they had unions, right like they have
unions in their cities and states that do that long
term work. Well, now, because of the Trump effects, you
(06:00):
have groups like Sentinal Action Fund that are able to
go in there and do that same long term work.
And so it was it was just comical to me
that the New York Times of all places, showed these numbers.
But they're real, and I think it shows that Republicans
have the edge going into the midterms on some really
tough Senate races across the country, you know.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
And what's interesting, so you talked about obviously infrastructure is
incredibly important, like that get out the vote machine, as
you point out, Democrats have been so good at it
in the past, and now we've caught up and maybe
even you know, exceeded the left in that regard. But
in terms of like the coalition President Trump put together,
(06:41):
is that to last?
Speaker 2 (06:43):
I mean, are they Republican voters or are they Trump voters?
Speaker 1 (06:46):
And then how does that translate to a midterm election
where while he is in office, he's not necessarily his
name's not on the ballot.
Speaker 3 (06:53):
Yeah, I think that is actually the million dollar question
right now. For all of us that are are doing
worker the midterms, and we've we've started our research and
have a pretty good answer to that. The challenge is
that Trump has a unique magnetism and voters turn out
for him, and they turn out not only because of
(07:14):
his personality but also because of his policy. And so
while his personality is not on the mid term ballots
right he himself is not on the ticket, the successes
of his policies are. So I think there's two things
that Republicans can learn and need to be doing right now.
One is telling the successful stories of the Trump agenda
(07:35):
of the first two hundred days. Right, you look at
immigration and the economy, the two biggest things that were
movers for voters this last election. Well, the changes that
the Trump administration made on immigration were swift, It was fierce,
and it was and it was so clear and tangible. Right,
it was within the first seven days of him taking office.
(07:55):
And so the temperature around immigration is actually cooled because
the success would so quick and intense. The economy, on
the other side, is taking time, right, you have it's
a little bit more complicated. You've got the deregulatory savings
that are coming in from the Trump deregulation agenda. You've
got tariffs that have somewhat mixed messaging but ultimately are
(08:19):
going to land to more dollars in the pockets of consumers.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
And then you've got the extension of the tax cuts.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
So now that the Big Beautiful Bill has passed, Trump
really has I think, the chance to turn the messaging
tables back to congressional and senatorial candidates to say, Okay,
now you have to take the ball and run. I
did the hard work by getting the Trump economic agenda
formulated and tackled within the first two hundred days. Now
(08:50):
show voters this fall and winter that it's mattering and
that you're the champion of it. And I think the
Senate and the House both saying that they are the
partner to the Trump economic agenda is going to be key.
And you got to put that in front of voters.
So it's not just showing up at events, it's sending
them mail, treat almost treating it like a year round campaign. Right,
(09:12):
the things that we would do forget out the vote,
do that now for the Big Beautiful bill. Talk about
the prices of gas and the price of groceries and eggs,
going down the benefits from tariffs, the benefit, the dollar
amount benefit from d reg all of that through mail,
through digital, through texts back to those voters. So I
think one that's a huge thing. We have to tell
(09:33):
the successful story. It has to be clear, and it
has to be on the economy. The second is continuing
to frame the Democratic Party as basically insane and radical.
I mean, you've got Mundami up there in New York
running as a full fledged socialist. I mean, I can't
think of a better foil. You've got Democrat senators that
(09:54):
are traveling to El Savador to meet with the Ques
gang members. You've got Dems that are now protests against
government waste. They protested against DC becoming more safe. I mean,
it's like every thirty days there's a brand new story
of Democrats being completely radical and that they're only focused
on being anti Trump instead of having some level of
common sense. And So I think if Republicans in the midterms,
(10:18):
specifically in tough states like Georgia, going after an entrenched
Democrat like Senator Osoff, if we can do this in
a state like Georgia and really show the success of
the economic agenda, and how ASoft stands for the radical,
crazy part of the Democratic Party.
Speaker 2 (10:35):
It's a win win.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
So I think those are the really the two things
that come to mind as the most important things.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
Got to take a quick break more with Jessica on
the other side on the big beautiful bill. Though it
is a little bit complex because I haven't seen the
latest polling, but largely the polling has been negative about
the bill overall. And then when you get into certain
pieces and elements of it that has been popular, like
(11:04):
the no tax on tips, So you know, how do
you sell that, especially when Democrats are hammering like the
medicaid angle, and you know all that.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
The more detail the better.
Speaker 3 (11:16):
So you know, Trump is a mastermind at marketing, so
he markets this whole thing as the big beautiful bill,
this grand thing. But the details of what this bill
does and how it's going to impact my life, you know,
my simple, simple life, Why my life is going to
get better, That is where this begins to sing. And
congressional Republicans and Senate candidates they've got to do that.
(11:38):
They have to literally go through the list of why
this is going to help them. The dollar amount that's
back in their pocket because of tax cuts being extended.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
You know that number.
Speaker 3 (11:48):
That number is fourteen hundred dollars, and you know that
number could even grow even more once you add in
deregulatory savings. So I think the proof is in the
detail and to get past kind of the broad strokes
of the bill and talk about the specifics.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
That's where the I think the success is going to come.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
You know, we've got two gubernatorial races coming up this November,
one in New Jersey, uh and one in Virginia that
people are looking to as Bill weathers to what will
happen in the mid terms. Right now, both Republican candidates
are behind. I believe both are based single digits, but
still behind. You know, how indicative do you think these
(12:31):
races will be on what we see next November.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
Yeah, it's a good question.
Speaker 3 (12:37):
I mean, you know, common logic is often that the
the November race, on these off your cycles is a
negative response to whoever's in the White House. Right It
worked with Younkin against Joe Biden. It's worked historically in Virginia.
I'm a resident there. You know, we're all worried about
this Virginia, about the Virginia race, just as I'm sure
(12:59):
you know everyone that in New Jersey is as well.
What I what I think is challenging though, is that
the policies that Trump has negotiated and advocated for have
been done in partnership with Congress, not with governors, and
so there's a little bit of a disconnect tier of
the role that governors play in the Trump agenda. And
(13:23):
the only reason I bring that up is because I
think there's if we take the theory of what I
just laid out of being accurate, that to win in
the midterms you have to talk about the successes of
the Trump agenda, and you have to frame the Democrats
as radical. If you take that as the premise, there's
some cognitive dissidents on actually the governor's race and how
(13:44):
they worked in partnership with the Trump agenda, especially for
a first time you know, for candidates that are running
for the first time, or for in the case of
Virginia that it's a lieutenant governor. So I'm not completely
sold that the New Jersey and Virginia races are going
to be bell weathers for the midterms, but I do
think we're going to learn a lot. We're going to
(14:05):
learn whether what voters attitudes are like if the turnout
numbers are sustainable year over year without Trump on the ballot.
So I'm not you know, I'm not saying that we
won't learn anything. I'm just not completely convinced that there's
not some cognitive dissonance in the minds of voters of
(14:25):
how they view governors versus how they view the Senate
and the House as a partner to Trump.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
Well, you know what, it'll be interesting too because at
least in the Virginia gubernatorial race, there's some like deja
vu to twenty twenty one with sort of like the
parental rights aspect with especially transgenders and high school with
allowing you know, men in the women's bathroom and vice versa.
And you know I saw that. Yeah, and Yunkin I
think was down by like five at this point, and
(14:52):
she's down by like seven, I think. So you know,
who knows if she's able to take you know, some
of these recent issues there and and you know, use
it to to take.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Her to office or not. But you know, I wanted
to ask you to you.
Speaker 1 (15:03):
I know that you guys have been primarily focused on
Senate races in the past, but you know, looking at
the House and redistricting. Obviously, we've got this like redistricting
arms race going on with Texas redistricting its map, and
then now Gavin Newsom is putting you know, a uh,
you know, this will be a special council or special
(15:25):
election vote on a new map in California for California
this November. There's also potential changes in like Florida. Ohio
has to redo its map ahead of the twenty twenty
six midterms, so potentially, like you know, a bunch of
different pickups, right, So, how do you think all of
that will impact the midterms?
Speaker 3 (15:47):
Yeah, I think that's a I think that's a great question,
especially because you had, you know, the issue with Texas
felt like parochial, right, it just felt like this is
just a Texas thing. And then what happened, you know,
what happened in the end will ultimately you end up
with exactly where they started, with Republicans able to achieve
(16:08):
quorum and go back and pass the loss. So that
was just funny in and of itself. But I think
to your question, I think there's two things worth considering here. One,
Democrats have long abused redistricting as an election tool to
advance democratic power. Look at the jerry mandarin in states
like Illinois and New York, New Jersey, even North Carolina
where swing districts or GOP seats were redrawn into safe
(16:34):
Democratic strongholds. So I think Republicans are right to take
a closer look at situations like that abuse on the left.
Speaker 2 (16:43):
But what they need to do.
Speaker 3 (16:45):
And what I think is happening in Texas now, is
that they're ensuring that these maps are fair and that
voters voices aren't drowned out by these partisan jerry commanders.
And so you know, when you saw the outrage from
demicrats for free and fair maps, which was absolutely the
right thing to do. When you saw Newsome and even
(17:05):
Governor Hochel from New York like, you saw what their
outreach was. And I think that they're mad because they
know they can't win without rigging these districts. And so
even though the redistricting battle feels very parochial.
Speaker 2 (17:19):
Like a state issue, what does it have to do
with me?
Speaker 3 (17:22):
I think the fact that you had neighboring Democrats from
other states all across the country way in just shows
how desperate they are to keep their power, as opposed
to recognizing that we need to have fair maps, They
need to reflect voters. They cannot be drawned out, and
we can't have Jerry you know, Jerry Mandarin, as we've
(17:43):
seen in states to now. So I do think it matters.
I also want just comment on that because the census
is also obviously related to that, and President Trump has
had I think a lot of really great comments and
executive orders that are getting at this. But you know,
how the census does, the counting every ten years, has
(18:04):
a direct line to the redistricting of this.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
And when you saw Democrat representative.
Speaker 3 (18:09):
Of that clerk just a few weeks ago kind of
say the quiet part out loud as the as the
kids say when she said I need more migrants in
my district for redistricting purposes. I just thought, okay, well
that just like drop the mic. They can't Democrats can't
win elections honestly, so they're manipulating the system. Hence why
(18:30):
they fight so hard against the census just counting legal migrants,
and why they're so opposed to a strong border. Well
this has to do with, you know, the number of
people that are in their district.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
What also just seems dumb to pick a redistricting fight.
When Republicans just have more opportunity to redistrict than the
left does, it seems like they're, you know, picking a
war that they cannot win, just one based on the
fact that, you know, Republicans hold more GOP trifect does
than Democrat trifect does, not saying that they could redistrict
in each of those states, but even punch bowld News
(19:04):
report it there's a potential for Republicans to pick up
at least a dozen or more House seats and redistricting efforts.
So like, if they really want to kick this off,
they're much more limited in what they're able to do.
I wanted to ask you, like just looking ahead at
the midterms and try and read the tea leaves. You know,
it's interesting because like democrats approval ratings are in the toilet,
like we're we're going to rock bottom historical lows for
(19:26):
the left. Republicans are doing better with fundraising than the
left is right now. You know, but you look at
the real clear politics, and you know, you look at
the congressional ballot, Democrats are up, but right now it's
like four percent. So it's kind of like within the
margin of error if you look collectively, but you look
at history, and history would imply that Democrats would have
(19:49):
been back the house. So like looking at all those
different data points sort of telling different stories, like what
do things look like to you right now?
Speaker 3 (19:58):
Yeah, So I think, you know, this is the same
challenge that Republicans have year over year, but I think
this cycle is different because twenty twenty four kind of
busted open the mold of how Republicans run elections. And
it goes back to our earlier point about building durable,
permanent infrastructures that will inform and mobilize voters. You have
(20:20):
to connect the dots between the national narrative back to
that local candidate. And the only way you connect those
dots is to go back to the basics of campaigning
with grassroots outreach and get out the vote and door
knocking and phone calls and consistent outreach to these voters
on the policy issues, telling them the goodness of what's
(20:41):
happening before you even talk to them about how to
vote or where to vote.
Speaker 2 (20:45):
So that's the challenge right now.
Speaker 3 (20:47):
It's why I think actually the fundraising numbers are so
exciting because you've got the RNC with eighty million plus.
On hand, I think those numbers were released earlier the summer,
so that they might even be higher today after they
had their big meeting in Atlanta last week, compared to
fifteen million for the DNC. That money not only does
(21:07):
it show strength and trust in the Republican Party, but
it can then be used to turn out voters earlier
and to have these conversations now and not waiting till
August first, twenty twenty six to start engaging with voters.
So I think that's huge. And you know, on the
larger issue of where the polling shows that the Democratic
(21:29):
Party is just you know, completely underwater.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
I mean I read a stat this last week from a.
Speaker 3 (21:35):
Wall Street Journal poll which which had the worst rating
for the Democratic Party in thirty five years. I mean,
that's that's remarkable when you think about everything that's happened
the last thirty five years. They're losing people. The registrations
show it, the movement from blue states to red states
show it, and then how they come down on these
policies show it. So when Democrats pick fights on common
(21:59):
sense is who is like the transgender issue in Virginia,
they're just on a losing side, and so I think
that all of these headwinds actually flip the narrative that
the twenty twenty six midterms are going to be a
rebuke of the Trump administration. I think it's going to
be an embrace of the Trump administration. And not only
will Republicans be able to retain the Senate in the House,
(22:20):
but I think there's a pretty strong case to be
made that they can flip Georgia and retire John oss
Off in the Senate, and that they can fill that
open seat in Michigan, you know, with Mike Rodgers running
a second time there. So I think there's a lot
more to be optimistic about at this point.
Speaker 2 (22:37):
We just have to do a lot of work between
now and next November.
Speaker 1 (22:40):
Got to take a quick commercial break. If you like
what you're hearing, please share on social media or send
it to a friend. Well, I'm almost even wondering if
Republicans pick up House seats because, like even on top
of the redistricting, which would give Republicans more of an
edge in these House races, like even before that, just
(23:00):
the starting point is that there are thirteen Democrats running
in Trump one seats and only three Republicans running in
Kamala Harris won seats and so like, even just starting
off with the map, Republicans are already at somewhat an
advantage in the House, and then you add the registricting
element on top of it, you add the fundraising element
on top of it, you add the historic lows for
(23:21):
the Democrat party, and then considering what Trump's approval ratings
end up looking like heading into the midterms, like, I mean,
I don't know, like that does create a scenario where
like maybe even Republicans pick up seats in the House.
Speaker 2 (23:33):
Yeah, absolutely, And those eleven to.
Speaker 3 (23:36):
Thirteen House districts that are currently held by a Democrat
but Trump won and some of that, you know, obviously
it's going to change a little bit depending on how
some of this redistricting goes down. You've got Democrats in
there that aren't doing anything to come to show that
they are common sense. You look at Jared Golden in
(23:57):
Maine or Henry Quaar in Texas, like these are the
districts we're talking about here, Susie Lee and Nevada, like
these are not household Democratic names that you think are
coming across the aisle to show that they can work
with Trump right, they're in a trench. They continue to
caucus and vote with their Democrat majority, and that, to
(24:19):
me gives a huge opportunity for the House to run
a common sense Republican that can capture some of those
Trump voters in the district, but also show that they
themselves are common sense, that they're willing to work back
across the aisle, that they're willing to support things that
the majority of Americans actually support. And so I think
(24:44):
that universe, being as intense as it is, is the
first place I would start for the House to have
a good recruitment program, have good House Republicans that can
run in those districts and then win. And then on
the flip side, you know the three Republican districts that
are represented by a Republican but Harris one. You know,
(25:07):
you know these names, Don Bacon, Mike Lawler, and Brian Fitzpatrick.
All three of them are Republicans that often reach across
the aisle to work with Democrats. So they're doing the
work that they need to do to show that they're
bipartisan back to their district. Now, Mike Johnson might not
like that, right, but there they enjoy the privilege of
that back to their.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
District to ultimately win.
Speaker 3 (25:28):
The same cannot be said about these thirteen Trump district Democrats.
Speaker 1 (25:33):
And just to conclude on complacencies, the devil in politics.
So like, despite you know, obviously things looking good for Republicans,
you know, voters need to turn out and so like,
all of that is moot if you know, people don't
show up to vote or don't send in ballots. Jessica Anderson,
President of the Sentinel Action Fund, appreciate you making the
(25:55):
time and appreciate your insight.
Speaker 2 (25:57):
Thanks so much for having me.
Speaker 1 (25:59):
Those Jessica and Henderson, President of the Sentinel Action Fund,
Appreciate her for making the time to come on the show.
Appreciate you guys at home for listening every Tuesday and Thursday,
but you can listen throughout the week. Also want to
thank John Cassio, my producer, for putting the show together.
Speaker 2 (26:11):
Until next time,
Welcome to the Truth with Lisa Booth, where we get
to the heart of the issues that matter to you. Today,
we're getting to the heart of the mid term elections,
the shifting political landscape ahead of it. We're going to
dig into it with Jessica Anderson. She is the president
of the Sentinel Action Fund. You might remember her from
before the twenty twenty four election. We had her on
(00:23):
the show and she wisely and astutelee told us not
to worry about the early voting and the mail in ballots,
that they were not cannibalizing the election day vote. I
don't know if you remember, but that was the message
from the left heading into election day that because Republicans
were having a strong early turnout, that would mean that
they would not have a strong turnout on election day.
She was right, The left and the media were wrong.
(00:45):
So that's why we're having her on again today. But
we're going to talk about a really interesting new development,
this report from the New York Times talking about a
seismic four point five million voter swing towards Republicans since
two thousand and two. Why is that happening?
Speaker 2 (01:01):
What does it mean.
Speaker 1 (01:02):
We'll also break down some of these key Bellweather races
coming up this November. Prior to next November, you've got
those gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
We'll talk about that.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
Also, we've got a redistricting arms race. What does that
mean for the midterm elections. All of that and more,
obviously a lot to dig into with Jessica Anderson. Stay tuned,
Jessica Anderson, It's great to have you on. I think
since we last had you on, well, we won the election.
(01:34):
A lot happened. President Trump won the popular vote and
the Republicans, you know, took power of all of Washington DC,
so kind of a big deal.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
So I did a big deal.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
Yeah, and you're a big part of that at the
Sentinel Action Fund, and you know, getting those early votes
and those mail and ballot votes.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
So but yeah, so a lots change's changed.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Actually, I think, Lisa, the last time we talked was
me trying to tell everyone, including your faithful listeners, that no,
the early vote was not going to steal from election day.
We are still going to win this thing, and we're
going to win these Senate races. And people thought we
were nuts, you know, and so I think we've proven
that absentee ballot early vote can work, and we've proven
(02:19):
that low propensity first time Trump voters are the special
sauce of the Republican Party right now, and Trump's magnetism
to these voters is just critical.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
So a lot, a lot has happened since last year.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
You're right, you did tell me that, and I think
I went on Lori Ingram that night on the Ingram Mangle,
and I believe it was like Jessica Anderson with the
Sentinel Action told me that it is not cannibalizing election
day voters, and everyone looked shocked.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
But you're right, which is why we're having you back to.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
Talk about, you know, what's ahead with the midterm election.
In the midterms, so I wanted to get your takes.
So the New York Times had a report recently sort
of highlighting this like big shift in voter registration trends
that we've seen since the twenty twenty election in really
big impact on the Democrat party. Looking about like twenty
(03:12):
I think thirty different states plus DC looking at the
states that track voter registration by political party and finding
that Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one,
which has resulted in a net swing of four point
five million voters toward the Republican Party. That is a
significant shift. Talk about the significance of that and why
(03:34):
that matters, particularly heading into this midterm election.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
It's remarkable that it took the New York Times to
do this analysis to kind of get everyone in the
political chattering class to realize that this big shift has
been happening, because I think people like you and I
have seen this on the ground really the last four
years in particular. And I think there's two things that
(03:58):
are happening at once. First, the Democratic Party is just
in a total free fall when it comes to policy.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
So you have, you know.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Major groups of people that are changing their voter registration.
They're leaving blue states to move to states you look like.
You look at like the exodus from California to Idaho
or to Texas, and you're seeing, you know, major chunks
of Democrats say we're fed up with the policies of
Gavin Newsosen, We're going to move to a red state.
(04:29):
And then they're re registering there either as an independent
or as a Republican. So I think that's really interesting.
The post COVID movement of voters specifically attached to the
failed policies and the flawed candidates. And this is happening
at the exact same time that the Republican Party looked
inward and realized after twenty twenty that they needed to
(04:52):
build long term campaign infrastructure and have a more robust
get out the vote approach. I think we saw this,
you know, you and I just joked about it and
the opener, but you know, we saw this at full
scale in twenty twenty four when Republicans, you know, really
did three things.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
Well.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
They narrowed the Democratic's historic advantage that Democrats have usually
had in early voting.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
They registered new voters.
Speaker 3 (05:18):
You see this in a key state like Pennsylvania that
was both important for the Senate and the presidential turning
out those low propensity, first time Trump voters in those
states that had just been registered six months prior. And
then the third thing that I'm most excited about, and
I think we as a party, and certainly those of
us at Sentinal Action Fund are super pumped about, is
(05:39):
you can have a durable, long term political infrastructure to
mobilize those newly registered voters early. And the key is
you got to turn them out so Democrats have had
this forever because they had unions, right like they have
unions in their cities and states that do that long
term work. Well, now, because of the Trump effects, you
(06:00):
have groups like Sentinal Action Fund that are able to
go in there and do that same long term work.
And so it was it was just comical to me
that the New York Times of all places, showed these numbers.
But they're real, and I think it shows that Republicans
have the edge going into the midterms on some really
tough Senate races across the country, you know.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
And what's interesting, so you talked about obviously infrastructure is
incredibly important, like that get out the vote machine, as
you point out, Democrats have been so good at it
in the past, and now we've caught up and maybe
even you know, exceeded the left in that regard. But
in terms of like the coalition President Trump put together,
(06:41):
is that to last?
Speaker 2 (06:43):
I mean, are they Republican voters or are they Trump voters?
Speaker 1 (06:46):
And then how does that translate to a midterm election
where while he is in office, he's not necessarily his
name's not on the ballot.
Speaker 3 (06:53):
Yeah, I think that is actually the million dollar question
right now. For all of us that are are doing
worker the midterms, and we've we've started our research and
have a pretty good answer to that. The challenge is
that Trump has a unique magnetism and voters turn out
for him, and they turn out not only because of
(07:14):
his personality but also because of his policy. And so
while his personality is not on the mid term ballots
right he himself is not on the ticket, the successes
of his policies are. So I think there's two things
that Republicans can learn and need to be doing right now.
One is telling the successful stories of the Trump agenda
(07:35):
of the first two hundred days. Right, you look at
immigration and the economy, the two biggest things that were
movers for voters this last election. Well, the changes that
the Trump administration made on immigration were swift, It was fierce,
and it was and it was so clear and tangible. Right,
it was within the first seven days of him taking office.
(07:55):
And so the temperature around immigration is actually cooled because
the success would so quick and intense. The economy, on
the other side, is taking time, right, you have it's
a little bit more complicated. You've got the deregulatory savings
that are coming in from the Trump deregulation agenda. You've
got tariffs that have somewhat mixed messaging but ultimately are
(08:19):
going to land to more dollars in the pockets of consumers.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
And then you've got the extension of the tax cuts.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
So now that the Big Beautiful Bill has passed, Trump
really has I think, the chance to turn the messaging
tables back to congressional and senatorial candidates to say, Okay,
now you have to take the ball and run. I
did the hard work by getting the Trump economic agenda
formulated and tackled within the first two hundred days. Now
(08:50):
show voters this fall and winter that it's mattering and
that you're the champion of it. And I think the
Senate and the House both saying that they are the
partner to the Trump economic agenda is going to be key.
And you got to put that in front of voters.
So it's not just showing up at events, it's sending
them mail, treat almost treating it like a year round campaign. Right,
(09:12):
the things that we would do forget out the vote,
do that now for the Big Beautiful bill. Talk about
the prices of gas and the price of groceries and eggs,
going down the benefits from tariffs, the benefit, the dollar
amount benefit from d reg all of that through mail,
through digital, through texts back to those voters. So I
think one that's a huge thing. We have to tell
(09:33):
the successful story. It has to be clear, and it
has to be on the economy. The second is continuing
to frame the Democratic Party as basically insane and radical.
I mean, you've got Mundami up there in New York
running as a full fledged socialist. I mean, I can't
think of a better foil. You've got Democrat senators that
(09:54):
are traveling to El Savador to meet with the Ques
gang members. You've got Dems that are now protests against
government waste. They protested against DC becoming more safe. I mean,
it's like every thirty days there's a brand new story
of Democrats being completely radical and that they're only focused
on being anti Trump instead of having some level of
common sense. And So I think if Republicans in the midterms,
(10:18):
specifically in tough states like Georgia, going after an entrenched
Democrat like Senator Osoff, if we can do this in
a state like Georgia and really show the success of
the economic agenda, and how ASoft stands for the radical,
crazy part of the Democratic Party.
Speaker 2 (10:35):
It's a win win.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
So I think those are the really the two things
that come to mind as the most important things.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
Got to take a quick break more with Jessica on
the other side on the big beautiful bill. Though it
is a little bit complex because I haven't seen the
latest polling, but largely the polling has been negative about
the bill overall. And then when you get into certain
pieces and elements of it that has been popular, like
(11:04):
the no tax on tips, So you know, how do
you sell that, especially when Democrats are hammering like the
medicaid angle, and you know all that.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
The more detail the better.
Speaker 3 (11:16):
So you know, Trump is a mastermind at marketing, so
he markets this whole thing as the big beautiful bill,
this grand thing. But the details of what this bill
does and how it's going to impact my life, you know,
my simple, simple life, Why my life is going to
get better, That is where this begins to sing. And
congressional Republicans and Senate candidates they've got to do that.
(11:38):
They have to literally go through the list of why
this is going to help them. The dollar amount that's
back in their pocket because of tax cuts being extended.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
You know that number.
Speaker 3 (11:48):
That number is fourteen hundred dollars, and you know that
number could even grow even more once you add in
deregulatory savings. So I think the proof is in the
detail and to get past kind of the broad strokes
of the bill and talk about the specifics.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
That's where the I think the success is going to come.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
You know, we've got two gubernatorial races coming up this November,
one in New Jersey, uh and one in Virginia that
people are looking to as Bill weathers to what will
happen in the mid terms. Right now, both Republican candidates
are behind. I believe both are based single digits, but
still behind. You know, how indicative do you think these
(12:31):
races will be on what we see next November.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
Yeah, it's a good question.
Speaker 3 (12:37):
I mean, you know, common logic is often that the
the November race, on these off your cycles is a
negative response to whoever's in the White House. Right It
worked with Younkin against Joe Biden. It's worked historically in Virginia.
I'm a resident there. You know, we're all worried about
this Virginia, about the Virginia race, just as I'm sure
(12:59):
you know everyone that in New Jersey is as well.
What I what I think is challenging though, is that
the policies that Trump has negotiated and advocated for have
been done in partnership with Congress, not with governors, and
so there's a little bit of a disconnect tier of
the role that governors play in the Trump agenda. And
(13:23):
the only reason I bring that up is because I
think there's if we take the theory of what I
just laid out of being accurate, that to win in
the midterms you have to talk about the successes of
the Trump agenda, and you have to frame the Democrats
as radical. If you take that as the premise, there's
some cognitive dissidents on actually the governor's race and how
(13:44):
they worked in partnership with the Trump agenda, especially for
a first time you know, for candidates that are running
for the first time, or for in the case of
Virginia that it's a lieutenant governor. So I'm not completely
sold that the New Jersey and Virginia races are going
to be bell weathers for the midterms, but I do
think we're going to learn a lot. We're going to
(14:05):
learn whether what voters attitudes are like if the turnout
numbers are sustainable year over year without Trump on the ballot.
So I'm not you know, I'm not saying that we
won't learn anything. I'm just not completely convinced that there's
not some cognitive dissonance in the minds of voters of
(14:25):
how they view governors versus how they view the Senate
and the House as a partner to Trump.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
Well, you know what, it'll be interesting too because at
least in the Virginia gubernatorial race, there's some like deja
vu to twenty twenty one with sort of like the
parental rights aspect with especially transgenders and high school with
allowing you know, men in the women's bathroom and vice versa.
And you know I saw that. Yeah, and Yunkin I
think was down by like five at this point, and
(14:52):
she's down by like seven, I think. So you know,
who knows if she's able to take you know, some
of these recent issues there and and you know, use
it to to take.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Her to office or not. But you know, I wanted
to ask you to you.
Speaker 1 (15:03):
I know that you guys have been primarily focused on
Senate races in the past, but you know, looking at
the House and redistricting. Obviously, we've got this like redistricting
arms race going on with Texas redistricting its map, and
then now Gavin Newsom is putting you know, a uh,
you know, this will be a special council or special
(15:25):
election vote on a new map in California for California
this November. There's also potential changes in like Florida. Ohio
has to redo its map ahead of the twenty twenty
six midterms, so potentially, like you know, a bunch of
different pickups, right, So, how do you think all of
that will impact the midterms?
Speaker 3 (15:47):
Yeah, I think that's a I think that's a great question,
especially because you had, you know, the issue with Texas
felt like parochial, right, it just felt like this is
just a Texas thing. And then what happened, you know,
what happened in the end will ultimately you end up
with exactly where they started, with Republicans able to achieve
(16:08):
quorum and go back and pass the loss. So that
was just funny in and of itself. But I think
to your question, I think there's two things worth considering here. One,
Democrats have long abused redistricting as an election tool to
advance democratic power. Look at the jerry mandarin in states
like Illinois and New York, New Jersey, even North Carolina
where swing districts or GOP seats were redrawn into safe
(16:34):
Democratic strongholds. So I think Republicans are right to take
a closer look at situations like that abuse on the left.
Speaker 2 (16:43):
But what they need to do.
Speaker 3 (16:45):
And what I think is happening in Texas now, is
that they're ensuring that these maps are fair and that
voters voices aren't drowned out by these partisan jerry commanders.
And so you know, when you saw the outrage from
demicrats for free and fair maps, which was absolutely the
right thing to do. When you saw Newsome and even
(17:05):
Governor Hochel from New York like, you saw what their
outreach was. And I think that they're mad because they
know they can't win without rigging these districts. And so
even though the redistricting battle feels very parochial.
Speaker 2 (17:19):
Like a state issue, what does it have to do
with me?
Speaker 3 (17:22):
I think the fact that you had neighboring Democrats from
other states all across the country way in just shows
how desperate they are to keep their power, as opposed
to recognizing that we need to have fair maps, They
need to reflect voters. They cannot be drawned out, and
we can't have Jerry you know, Jerry Mandarin, as we've
(17:43):
seen in states to now. So I do think it matters.
I also want just comment on that because the census
is also obviously related to that, and President Trump has
had I think a lot of really great comments and
executive orders that are getting at this. But you know,
how the census does, the counting every ten years, has
(18:04):
a direct line to the redistricting of this.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
And when you saw Democrat representative.
Speaker 3 (18:09):
Of that clerk just a few weeks ago kind of
say the quiet part out loud as the as the
kids say when she said I need more migrants in
my district for redistricting purposes. I just thought, okay, well
that just like drop the mic. They can't Democrats can't
win elections honestly, so they're manipulating the system. Hence why
(18:30):
they fight so hard against the census just counting legal migrants,
and why they're so opposed to a strong border. Well
this has to do with, you know, the number of
people that are in their district.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
What also just seems dumb to pick a redistricting fight.
When Republicans just have more opportunity to redistrict than the
left does, it seems like they're, you know, picking a
war that they cannot win, just one based on the
fact that, you know, Republicans hold more GOP trifect does
than Democrat trifect does, not saying that they could redistrict
in each of those states, but even punch bowld News
(19:04):
report it there's a potential for Republicans to pick up
at least a dozen or more House seats and redistricting efforts.
So like, if they really want to kick this off,
they're much more limited in what they're able to do.
I wanted to ask you, like just looking ahead at
the midterms and try and read the tea leaves. You know,
it's interesting because like democrats approval ratings are in the toilet,
like we're we're going to rock bottom historical lows for
(19:26):
the left. Republicans are doing better with fundraising than the
left is right now. You know, but you look at
the real clear politics, and you know, you look at
the congressional ballot, Democrats are up, but right now it's
like four percent. So it's kind of like within the
margin of error if you look collectively, but you look
at history, and history would imply that Democrats would have
(19:49):
been back the house. So like looking at all those
different data points sort of telling different stories, like what
do things look like to you right now?
Speaker 3 (19:58):
Yeah, So I think, you know, this is the same
challenge that Republicans have year over year, but I think
this cycle is different because twenty twenty four kind of
busted open the mold of how Republicans run elections. And
it goes back to our earlier point about building durable,
permanent infrastructures that will inform and mobilize voters. You have
(20:20):
to connect the dots between the national narrative back to
that local candidate. And the only way you connect those
dots is to go back to the basics of campaigning
with grassroots outreach and get out the vote and door
knocking and phone calls and consistent outreach to these voters
on the policy issues, telling them the goodness of what's
(20:41):
happening before you even talk to them about how to
vote or where to vote.
Speaker 2 (20:45):
So that's the challenge right now.
Speaker 3 (20:47):
It's why I think actually the fundraising numbers are so
exciting because you've got the RNC with eighty million plus.
On hand, I think those numbers were released earlier the summer,
so that they might even be higher today after they
had their big meeting in Atlanta last week, compared to
fifteen million for the DNC. That money not only does
(21:07):
it show strength and trust in the Republican Party, but
it can then be used to turn out voters earlier
and to have these conversations now and not waiting till
August first, twenty twenty six to start engaging with voters.
So I think that's huge. And you know, on the
larger issue of where the polling shows that the Democratic
(21:29):
Party is just you know, completely underwater.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
I mean I read a stat this last week from a.
Speaker 3 (21:35):
Wall Street Journal poll which which had the worst rating
for the Democratic Party in thirty five years. I mean,
that's that's remarkable when you think about everything that's happened
the last thirty five years. They're losing people. The registrations
show it, the movement from blue states to red states
show it, and then how they come down on these
policies show it. So when Democrats pick fights on common
(21:59):
sense is who is like the transgender issue in Virginia,
they're just on a losing side, and so I think
that all of these headwinds actually flip the narrative that
the twenty twenty six midterms are going to be a
rebuke of the Trump administration. I think it's going to
be an embrace of the Trump administration. And not only
will Republicans be able to retain the Senate in the House,
(22:20):
but I think there's a pretty strong case to be
made that they can flip Georgia and retire John oss
Off in the Senate, and that they can fill that
open seat in Michigan, you know, with Mike Rodgers running
a second time there. So I think there's a lot
more to be optimistic about at this point.
Speaker 2 (22:37):
We just have to do a lot of work between
now and next November.
Speaker 1 (22:40):
Got to take a quick commercial break. If you like
what you're hearing, please share on social media or send
it to a friend. Well, I'm almost even wondering if
Republicans pick up House seats because, like even on top
of the redistricting, which would give Republicans more of an
edge in these House races, like even before that, just
(23:00):
the starting point is that there are thirteen Democrats running
in Trump one seats and only three Republicans running in
Kamala Harris won seats and so like, even just starting
off with the map, Republicans are already at somewhat an
advantage in the House, and then you add the registricting
element on top of it, you add the fundraising element
on top of it, you add the historic lows for
(23:21):
the Democrat party, and then considering what Trump's approval ratings
end up looking like heading into the midterms, like, I mean,
I don't know, like that does create a scenario where
like maybe even Republicans pick up seats in the House.
Speaker 2 (23:33):
Yeah, absolutely, And those eleven to.
Speaker 3 (23:36):
Thirteen House districts that are currently held by a Democrat
but Trump won and some of that, you know, obviously
it's going to change a little bit depending on how
some of this redistricting goes down. You've got Democrats in
there that aren't doing anything to come to show that
they are common sense. You look at Jared Golden in
(23:57):
Maine or Henry Quaar in Texas, like these are the
districts we're talking about here, Susie Lee and Nevada, like
these are not household Democratic names that you think are
coming across the aisle to show that they can work
with Trump right, they're in a trench. They continue to
caucus and vote with their Democrat majority, and that, to
(24:19):
me gives a huge opportunity for the House to run
a common sense Republican that can capture some of those
Trump voters in the district, but also show that they
themselves are common sense, that they're willing to work back
across the aisle, that they're willing to support things that
the majority of Americans actually support. And so I think
(24:44):
that universe, being as intense as it is, is the
first place I would start for the House to have
a good recruitment program, have good House Republicans that can
run in those districts and then win. And then on
the flip side, you know the three Republican districts that
are represented by a Republican but Harris one. You know,
(25:07):
you know these names, Don Bacon, Mike Lawler, and Brian Fitzpatrick.
All three of them are Republicans that often reach across
the aisle to work with Democrats. So they're doing the
work that they need to do to show that they're
bipartisan back to their district. Now, Mike Johnson might not
like that, right, but there they enjoy the privilege of
that back to their.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
District to ultimately win.
Speaker 3 (25:28):
The same cannot be said about these thirteen Trump district Democrats.
Speaker 1 (25:33):
And just to conclude on complacencies, the devil in politics.
So like, despite you know, obviously things looking good for Republicans,
you know, voters need to turn out and so like,
all of that is moot if you know, people don't
show up to vote or don't send in ballots. Jessica Anderson,
President of the Sentinel Action Fund, appreciate you making the
(25:55):
time and appreciate your insight.
Speaker 2 (25:57):
Thanks so much for having me.
Speaker 1 (25:59):
Those Jessica and Henderson, President of the Sentinel Action Fund,
Appreciate her for making the time to come on the show.
Appreciate you guys at home for listening every Tuesday and Thursday,
but you can listen throughout the week. Also want to
thank John Cassio, my producer, for putting the show together.
Speaker 2 (26:11):
Until next time,
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