October 21, 2025 • 31 mins
In this episode of The Truth with Lisa Boothe, Lisa sits down with Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly to break down the high-stakes gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia — contests that could preview what’s to come in 2026. They dig into the latest polling data, the impact of redistricting, and how voter sentiment on the economy is reshaping both parties’ strategies. Cahaly calls out Democratic gerrymandering and GOP missteps, while offering insights into what Republicans must do to win. The Truth with Lisa Boothe is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Tuesday & Thursday.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Truth with Lisabouk, who we try to
get to heart of the issues that matter to you. Today,
we're talking to Robert Khali. He's the chief polster of
the Trafalgar Group. You know when we've seen him on Fox,
we've had him here on the podcast. Well, we're going
to dig in to these big off year elections, these
two gubatorial races that you've been hearing about that we've
been following in New Jersey and in Virginia. So Trafalgar
(00:24):
basically has these races as a neck and neck contest.
Now a lot of people are talking about these races
that they're bellwethers for what's to come next November of
the upcoming midterm elections.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
So are they. We'll talk to Robert about that.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
We'll ask him what he thinks.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
We'll also talk to him about.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Why these races are tightening, what's going on in those states. Also,
we're just going to talk about the upcoming midterms as well.
What do we what do we know now, where do
things stand in this political environment, what a President Trump's
approval ratings look like as well. Also, you know, as
we continue to head down this road of a government chetdown,
(01:02):
do you care? How much do Americans care? We'll get
Robert's take on all of this and more so, stay
tuned for Robert Kahally with the Trafalgar Group.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
Well, Robert, it's great to have you back on the podcast.
I'm really interested. You've had a couple of interesting polls
out recently on New Jersey in Virginia, so I'm very
interested in getting your take on the political environment today
and kind of where everything stands. So I appreciate you
making the time.
Speaker 4 (01:34):
Yeah, well, you know, it's first of all, just always
good to be on your show. I think a lot
of the listeners, not only the quantity, but the quality
of the people who listen to your show. The people
that I hear from after I've been on your show,
let me know a lot about the type of listeners
you have. And you really do have a very in
(01:56):
tuned audience that I feel like a lot of decision
makers are among them.
Speaker 2 (02:02):
Well, it's very right, So I appreciate you saying that.
Thank you.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
Well, it's just it's true.
Speaker 4 (02:06):
So I don't know what as to say, but what
I will tell you is, uh, Virginia, it is a
tale of two of two different states when it comes
to uh, these two races for both governor uh and
the other state wives in Virginia, So what we're seeing
right now is we're seeing a very very tight race
(02:29):
for governor. We We've got this thing between one and
two points.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (02:35):
It's just is very very tight and in Virginia, excuse me,
in New Jersey, and you know, it really is going
to depend a little a good bit on get out
the vote and how well they mobilize. But there are
a lot of upset people, especially the tax issue, and
(02:56):
there's you know, there's still a lot of questions, uh,
about the fact that you know, the Democratic candidate, she
just she's not given enough information about where she is
on not releasing her.
Speaker 3 (03:12):
Record from the Naval Academy. I mean, it's just there's.
Speaker 4 (03:16):
A lot of questions that's why she didn't walk and
what she did or didn't do. And you know, if
it really is the truth that she just didn't want
to rat on other people, I mean, if there's any
state that might respect that, it might be New Jersey.
Not true, Well, I just invented a lot of people.
But but the fact is, but if that's all it is,
(03:38):
then then you know, she won't release the documents that
could they could back that story up, and so that's
that's a real question there.
Speaker 3 (03:46):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (03:47):
But you know, we've got that thing right now at
a one point race. I've seen some other polling that
hasn't much wider, but frankly, mostly the other polling that
hasn't much wider or poles that tend to get this
thing wrong. We have the number one poll in New Jersey,
in Virginia and twenty twenty one, and when I look
(04:09):
at it, I mean, you know, the other place that
I mean if all the other polls out there, the
ones that I thought were really good in New Jersey
is Emerson and Emerson had it tied. So I think
there is this is a very close race. Not saying
the Republicans.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
Going to win, but I think it's.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
One that with just a little bit of tweak either way,
this one could go to the Republicans.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
Now they say snitches can or stitches end up in ditches, right,
so maybe in New Jersey. But you know, but she's
also there's also been like a few missteps with her,
like she had that really horrible interview with Charlottage and
the God and not being able to answer world, this
money's coming right, Like there just seems to be like
her inability to kind of explain things. To your point,
you had mentioned twenty twenty one, Phil Murphy at the
(05:02):
time against Chiarelli was favored to win by seven eight
seven point eight points in their Broker Politics average, but
only ended up beating Jack Ciarelli by two point eight points.
So to your point, like, do.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
You think that's it?
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Yeah, that one, so you were accurate. So like, should
you think that this is going to be you know,
in a couple of weeks here, I guess not even
probably less than that we're going to find out. Is
this going to be another big polling miss from people?
Do you think?
Speaker 4 (05:29):
I mean when I when I look at some of
the some of these poles that are coming out showing
margins at five and seven and seven, I'm I just like,
I don't know what they're doing. I really don't know
what they're doing. I just I think it's going to
be much closer me. You know, with us in Emerson
it's a four point gap, and I think I think
(05:50):
it that's Real Clear is going to do a better
job this time, just because Real Clear is only as
good as the poll that it has it. Uh. So
I mean that you know, you can't you can't blame
on him moment when the when the when the polls
aren't so great. But no, I think that that is
definitely one that I think could be a a polling miss.
(06:12):
I think it's going to be closer uh than a
lot of these polls out there right now as.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
We moved to Virginia, though Virginia.
Speaker 4 (06:22):
Our closest one, uh is we have at a three,
and you know it is What's what's frustrating, I think
as you look at it, I guess from a Republican standpoint,
is that you know you've got this uh plus three
for the for uh Speckerberg, and then all of a
(06:44):
sudden when you go to Attorney General, you know we've
got a plus five uh from yeras versus Jones. So
there's a problem in the city you're selling this thing.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
It is like she's not it ought to be an
easy sales pitcher.
Speaker 4 (07:06):
This lady says she's an independent and that you know,
she's just not about parties. That's your whole legislative record,
and the reason she has survived in years when the Republicans.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
Won is because she's always sold herself.
Speaker 4 (07:19):
As kind of a middle of the road Democrat who
didn't mind stepping away from party. I mean, even when
it came time to criticize Northum, she was first in line.
But somehow she's unwilling to do this with Jones, unwilling
to completely disavow. And I just don't think that that
(07:40):
Sears is pushing this hard enough because what we've seen
is the crowd that moved away from from the Democrat
nominee and moved towards Sears was the over sixty fives.
But what I'm not seeing yet is that same movement
with the forty five to sixty five. And frankly, that's
(08:04):
a group that you are not going to get with
traditional with traditional eb ads like people watching TV and
that kind of stuff versus you know, people.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
That are unplugged that are more digital. That forty five
sixty five crowd is a harder crow to put a
message in front of.
Speaker 4 (08:23):
And I just don't see them selling it quite the
way they need to there because Member is really in
a good position if she can, if she could take
this issue and move beyond it, like saying, all right,
I'm tired of talking about the Attorney General and just
move on from that. And the other question is does
(08:46):
who pays the price for all the shutdown stuff? I mean,
because a lot of these people are the ones who
aren't getting.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
Paychecks of workers in Virginia.
Speaker 3 (09:01):
Right now, don't You're wrong?
Speaker 4 (09:03):
These are federal workers who know more than most people,
and so who they choose to blame this shutdown on
might be a more informed the decision than you would
expect it to be in some of the years. I mean,
these people know exactly what's going on, and I mean,
you know, if you say CR, they know what that means.
Average America don't know what CR means, but they do.
(09:27):
And so the fact that Humor has never voted against
the CR of an against CR, now he's against one
when they've got a clean one, that they might understand that.
Speaker 3 (09:36):
But it really is going to depend on how that
is sold.
Speaker 4 (09:40):
And again the tiptoeing around Trump, because what we saw
the last time was young and did an incredible job
of leveraging Trump where he made such a difference in
the southern and western part of Virginia without paying the
price in the northern Virginia with the people who are
DCN decided who didn't like him.
Speaker 3 (10:01):
Now, is she talented enough to that? Is her team
talented enough to do that? I don't know.
Speaker 4 (10:07):
I do know that I have not seen the level
of campaign that young can put out there. I haven't
seen her exercise campaign like that, and I think that
that is something that is incredibly important and she needs
to do it. And frankfully, I mean, if it were me,
(10:27):
I would be talking about the thing with Jones, and
about the transgender bathroom stuff, and about parent rights and schools.
I mean I would just be hammering on those things.
But this idea of she can't be independent, she can't
be courageous if she won't simply say I'm not backing
this guy anymore.
Speaker 3 (10:46):
Got to take a quick commercial break. More Robert on
the other side.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
So we're talking about two of the big gubernatrol E
races this upcoming in November in Virginia between Abigail Spamberger
and the Lieutenant governor win some series. And then in
New Jersey you've got Jack Ciarelli running against Representative Mikey Cheryl.
You know, looking at these two states, did you think
(11:13):
it's harder in Virginia because you know, Republicans obviously have
an incumbent governor who's term limited there Glenn Youngkin, Versus
in New Jersey, where you know, people are sort of
sick and tired of Phil Murphy who's on his way out,
like they want change. Do you think it's it's easier
for like Jack Cirelli maybe has like a clearer path
(11:34):
considering he would be the change candidate in the state
there in New Jersey.
Speaker 3 (11:38):
I'm going to me say it this way.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
Looking at these two states six months out, I would
have said Virginia is the easier lift, but campaigns and
candidates matter, and today I'd rather be in New Jersey
than Virginia.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Interesting, you know, are these two states. You know, obviously
a lot of people are saying that these are bell
weather states. I know historically that's kind of how we've
looked at them and these off your elections before mid
terms to try to get an idea what the upcoming
midterm elections will look like. But you know, if you
go back you look at the twenty twenty four election,
you know, President Trump, despite sweeping all seven swing states
(12:23):
and winning the popular vote, did lose both New Jersey
and Virginia by almost six percent. Now that's a considerable
drop from where Joe Biden, you know where he was
pulling and where he won in twenty twenty. But still like,
are these bell weather races? Can you call them that
given the fact that you know both these states appear
(12:44):
pretty blue, or how would you characterize them? And are
these bell weathers.
Speaker 4 (12:49):
For Republican wins in New Jersey? I think that tells
people a lot if a Democrat wins in Virginia or
Republican wins, I don't. I think it speaks to Virginia
may be more purple, but purple outside.
Speaker 3 (13:10):
Of Trump.
Speaker 4 (13:12):
Because Trump is such an anti establishment, anti swamp, anti
DC insider candidate that he will never do as well
in Virginia than someone who has not seen that way.
It's like Trump has taken on the swamp and understands
(13:33):
that when you take on the swamp, then you're not.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
Going to get the swamp vote.
Speaker 4 (13:39):
But you know, someone is seen as a less maga
or maga light might very well be able to carry
a state like Virginia, and probably easier than a Republican
could carry New Jersey. However, if New Jersey would elect
(13:59):
or Republican and then like what they saw, like say
Chiarelli really made a big difference, and people saw an
immediate you know, whether it was something to do with
the tax or something like just an immediate turnaround, then
then I think.
Speaker 3 (14:15):
That they could both be competitive states.
Speaker 4 (14:18):
But I would say Glen Younkin has proven the outside
of an anti swamp candidate and and not not that
Glen Younkin is pro swamped, but I mean he's not
crucading against the swamp.
Speaker 2 (14:31):
It was a really good candidate, right, Like I think,
you know.
Speaker 4 (14:35):
There is no Yeah, he's one of the best candidates
has been run for governor anywhere.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Yeah, like with respect to win some series Like Glenn
Younkin's just on another level.
Speaker 4 (14:44):
Right, So it's like, yeah, she's not a Glen Youngkin.
Speaker 3 (14:48):
I mean there's just you know, there's there's no question.
Speaker 4 (14:51):
And and she doesn't have everything that that I can
see and the stories I hear are campaign isn't on
the same level as Glen Youngin And it's just there's
just a level of doing things that that Glenn Youngkin,
just the way that his campaign operated. Now I do
(15:12):
hear that Sears has a first class get out the
vote team, but in the end getting out the vote.
All that depends on whether the candidate has sold it,
and at this point, I don't think that she's the
point where she sold it enough to get over the hump.
Now she's got a little more time to sell it,
and she definitely got it tight when a lot of
(15:33):
people are voting early. But there's gonna be there's gonna
be a good number of people who are going to
vote in the next few weeks, and you know, we're
going to see where where she is.
Speaker 3 (15:42):
Then.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
I used to live in Virginia. I grew I was
born and raised in Virginia and used to live in
northern Virginia. And it's definitely it's very liberal in the state.
Seems to be trending or blue. It used to have
some purple elements if I remember correctly, and now it
just kind of seems like it's, you know, a little
bit more of a blue state.
Speaker 4 (16:05):
But we'll see, because again, all we have to look
at and presidential is three elections with the ultimate anti
swamp candidates. I mean, that's all our recent election results
we got to look at. So you know, in twenty
twenty eight, if if we had had somebody that was
(16:27):
you know, again Trump lighter or even somebody who was
seen as you know, much more of an establishment type Republican,
I'm not so sure it.
Speaker 3 (16:34):
Wouldn't move back into purple category.
Speaker 4 (16:38):
But and I guess if I were if I were Trump,
I'd say being against the swamp is worth losing Virginia.
And I think that's a smart thing to say. But
the next candidate might not feel that way.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
You look at j Jones, the Democrat candidate for Training
General of Virginia. You know, obviously he's on record wishing
for the death of a political Republican uh politician in
the state, as well as his children. Just I mean,
it's insane. But like that, see you know that race
you had mentioned where Mirus is. Now that he's up
(17:13):
in that race, the Republican candidate who's the you know,
sitting attorney general right now, I guess that that just
totally changed the game. And I mean that even changed
they were. We'll see if it impacts the top of
the ticket with the gubernatorial race, but I mean that
race has just shifted. I guess that's a good sign.
Should make us all feel better than even in a
you know, a seemingly blue state like Virginia that those
(17:36):
words would matter, right, But this shift in the race
since those comments surfaced.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
I mean, it's just it just.
Speaker 4 (17:47):
Again, Virginia is a place where the most liberal element are,
even the most middle of the road element are also
what you would say as high information voters. So that
is going to completely permeate high information voters. They're going
(18:10):
to know all the details of that scandal in a
way that some other states might not. There's still people,
believe it or not, people who make decisions in America
really don't know everything that is going on. But Virginia's
not place like that, especially northern Virginia. So that's a
lot of where we saw the shift. It's like, that's
(18:33):
not okay. And those folks, I mean, they they hear there,
and it just it is it's just kind of I mean,
you know, the old expression is too soon.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
It is far too soon to be making jokes like that.
It's just too soon, and it really is kind of distasteful.
Speaker 4 (18:56):
And so I think that I think that it doesn't
surprise me that that move the race so much.
Speaker 3 (19:05):
It's also.
Speaker 4 (19:07):
There just becomes almost a bandwagon effect that people are
just like, well, you know, how all the time people
are looking to kind of establish themselves that their society,
you know, their social status is like they took this
stand in that stand, you know that this is a
place somebody who kind of leans to the left can say,
(19:27):
but I'm.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
Not for that.
Speaker 4 (19:30):
You know, this is where they place that little marker, well,
but I'm not for that. And so that that's why
this doesn't surprise me so much, because even the most
middle of the road person who maybe certainly lean Democrat,
who probably would have voted Democrat for Attorney General beforehand,
(19:50):
can say, well, no, but I'm but I'm not for that, and.
Speaker 2 (19:54):
Then that and then I give this all comfort because
it's been a little worrisome with some of that. So,
you know, do you look at this shutdown. I think
it's the third longest shutdown today. We'll see how much
longer it goes on for do Americans care? Like we're
I mean, obviously we're talking about the Virginia inventure race.
They're more plugged in because you have a lot of
(20:14):
federal workers who are directly impacted by it, so they
you know, they're they're kind of forced to pay attention
to it, right But for like the rest of Americans
like how much do they care? Like does this impact
the political environment, or like kind of how do you
see this as a poster?
Speaker 4 (20:32):
Well, I think that the one place we'll start to
see people who will care is if it really starts
to be not just a little impact, but a significant
impact on plane travel, both with the TSA and the
UH and with the air traft controllers.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (20:52):
So, I think that's a place where people interact with
federal government. And then the fact that that the military
is getting paid and that they're funding some some other
things I think was being funded.
Speaker 3 (21:07):
The fact that some of that's happening.
Speaker 4 (21:08):
Into the court and they shoot it all down, but
nobody's going to go back and ask for the money
back for people who got money. So, you know it
really it really depends on your interaction. And I would
tell you that most of the people who would be
most angry about a government shut down are going to
be people who was expecting a check who didn't get it,
And a lot of them aren't necessarily people who are
(21:32):
swing voters. I mean that that is that is in
essence part of the problem with the out there is
that there's so many people who are so dependent I
have seen this year after year after year, people campaigning
on these people are going to cut off the checks
coming to you.
Speaker 3 (21:51):
And there's a segment of the population.
Speaker 4 (21:53):
Who, when you say you're getting a check from the government,
it'll be less or you won't get it if this
party wins, will vote on that check. We even saw,
and I don't care what anybody who wasn't there fail
at you. In twenty twenty one, those two runoffs in Georgia,
those weren't about Trump. Those were about one simple thing.
(22:14):
Mitch McConnell had said, no more money, just the seven
hundred dollars checks or the six hundred dollars checks, and
Schumer had said they'll get fourteen hundred more if my
two sentators went, and that is what people ran on.
They literally they were truck driving to Georgie, get your
extra fourteen hundred dollars.
Speaker 3 (22:34):
Elect these two.
Speaker 4 (22:35):
A Republican won the Public Service Commission right off. That
was owned the ballot that day. It wasn't Republicans didn't
turn out as you made Republicans choose between fourteen hundred
dollars in their pocket and voting Republican. And my rule
has always been in a democracy you should never send
out checks before an election. But if you break rule
(22:57):
number one, rule number two is you got to be
the big number, and they weren't. Mitch McConnell said, there's
no discussion these two wins. It ain't gonna happen. And
so so again, people vote their pocketbook, So the shutdown,
the people whose pocketbook it hurts are gonna be the
ones most move But there are also not a lot
(23:17):
of swing voters that follow in that category.
Speaker 2 (23:21):
Where do President Trump's approval readings stand today, and how
do you think that impacts in the terms.
Speaker 4 (23:27):
Well, we haven't we haven't done a recent approval, but uh,
what I've seen from the you know, I mean, here's
the thing, it's not hard to figure.
Speaker 3 (23:35):
Out who the good polsters are. Uh.
Speaker 4 (23:38):
All you got to do is go look at the
election results. And then everybody who was off three or
four points on average just quit paying attention to their polls.
And when you do that, there's not a lot of
polsters left. And look at what they're saying, and the
ones that we see that we trust. As a matter
of fact, I'm sure probably aware of the National Association
(24:01):
of Independent Bolsters that we are one of the founding
members of all all of the members on that you
can depend on looking at those poles and let me
run through those in case people don't know. That's of
course for Valgar Inside Advantage, Raspbution Report, Big Data poll, Kawanas,
(24:22):
Susquehanna and John McLaughlan poland so those are ones that
you can take a.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
You can look at.
Speaker 4 (24:31):
Those and realize that they're upper esh lined. So what
we see out of most of those is pretty close
to even. And you know, the midterms, I'll give you
some give everybody else there. The midterms are going to
be No matter what anybody tells you, the truth is
they're going to be about the economy. We're going to
(24:52):
have many I mean with the FED chief leaving in May,
there will be many FED meetings after that. And if
they continue to lower the interest rate and the housing
market explodes, which I think it will, if at the
same time a lot of these new onshore jobs that
(25:12):
they had to build or expand factories, they're going to
be hiring it. So I think the unemployment rate is
going to be low. And if the economy is humming
like lower interest rates and more jobs can make it hum.
I think the Republicans will be in great shape. But
if the economy is bad, then I think they won't
(25:34):
be in great shape. And so a lot of this
is out of the control right now. I mean, I
know we're going to have all these redistricting in these
certain states, and the fact is the Republicans have mandered
a lot less of the Democrats, way more Republican states
that can redo theirs. I remember watching Meet the Press
and you know, you had the governor of Illinois, pritzkre
(25:58):
on there talking all that, and then I was actually
really really happy to see welcome call him out and go,
wait a minute. You know, Trump got thirty percent of
the vote, and you know you've got a two or
three congressmen, like you're the most German estate in the country.
You in Massachusetts. It's like she called him out on
it. It's like, who are you to be talking about jerremandering?
(26:20):
And that's the truth. They're all that their states are
so much more. I mean, what, Trump got thirty percent
of the vote Massachusetts and they have zero Republican congressmen.
Speaker 3 (26:29):
So again, those you know.
Speaker 4 (26:32):
Those will those will make a difference in a House
that comes down to three or four five votes. But
the fact is a good economy is going to swing everything.
I can tell you right now. I've done a lot
of study on this. Without the Row versus Way verdict,
you would have what you had in a lot of
states in twenty twenty two. There were a lot of
(26:53):
states that it was a massive red waves. But in
the states where the Democrats built a big machine where
they had a state wide race, they utilized that abortion
ruling or jobs to scare people on what would be
it was the scare tactics.
Speaker 3 (27:08):
By twenty twenty four.
Speaker 4 (27:10):
Most people lived in a state where they were comfortable
with their abortion laws and it didn't play the role
with it. But in twenty twenty two, nobody knew what
was going to happen. The ruling was too new and
so the scare tactics weren't. But again, the economy was good.
The economy was not as bad and affecting things. Because
the economy was bad and people were trying to want
(27:32):
of the Republicans and save that abortion wing, the Republicans
would have massive pickups.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
And I think it's the same way.
Speaker 4 (27:39):
If the economy is bad, they'll want to switch parties
and go back to the Democrats, and the economy is good,
I think the Republicans have an excellent chance of holding own.
So all the tactics out there are fine, but frankly,
more fed meetings and getting those jobs cycled up.
Speaker 3 (27:57):
What's going to make the difference.
Speaker 2 (28:00):
It always comes down to the economy, doesn't it.
Speaker 3 (28:03):
It does in so many ways.
Speaker 4 (28:05):
Yeah, you know, like I said, but and less there's
something that the charges ahead, and in twenty twenty two
that was the Dobs ruling.
Speaker 3 (28:14):
That ruling doesn't happen.
Speaker 4 (28:15):
The Republicans pick up such a massive number that I
don't think Joe Biden would have been able to run.
Speaker 3 (28:21):
For re election.
Speaker 1 (28:22):
We've got to take a quick commercial break. If you
like what you're hearing, please send to your family or
maybe said.
Speaker 2 (28:27):
It to a friend or post on social media. Well
you've also got you know, obviously we've got the redistricts
and stuff that we're still waiting to see what happens
with that. But you know, there's also like I think
thirteen Democrats running in state in district that Trump won,
(28:47):
whereas I think there are only three Republicans running in
states that that Kamala Harris won.
Speaker 4 (28:57):
So let's remember this, Even twenty four we got four
states that Trump won and the Republicans lost Senate race. Frankly,
that's unacceptable. Yeah, that is a ball dropped. That that
is ridiculous and that should have never happened, and that
(29:18):
the Republicans got out smarted with people running. I think Wisconsin,
they created a party called the Maga Party, which got
enough votes to be the difference in that race, and
they played all kinds of games which kind of proved
the Democrats would thinking about one of those races a
year in advance, Republicans were playing catch up. Republicans had
four very good candidates. Don't let anybody blame that on
(29:40):
those candidates. No, that was a structure problem and there's
nowhere around that, and that that was that they just
didn't build the machine the way they should have built it.
There's no excuse for Trump winning as especially as large
as he did in Arizona and uh and Nevada to
(30:01):
lose those races. Just just so, just because Trump won
something doesn't mean the apparatus is there. You know, I
think we still see there's still a lot Republicans still
have a lot of.
Speaker 3 (30:16):
Spending that doesn't win election. That makes people rich well.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
And Trump's such a unique candidate. So to your point,
you know that doesn't always necessarily get passed on to
the Republican running in that race.
Speaker 3 (30:30):
I think it can, but I think they've got to
do the work to make it happen.
Speaker 4 (30:34):
Yeah, and again losing out to somebody who got on
the ballot as a MAGA candidate with the literally the
term magot beside their name, that's not the way, you know.
I mean that that happening Wisconsin, and that that was
somebody not handling the stuff right a year out before
there was even Republican nominee.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
So again I put that on the structure.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
Well, Robert Cohawley, we will be watching this November. The
race is there. We'll see what happens in New Jersey
and Virginia and would love to have you back as
we head into the midterms and things start picking it.
Obviously we're a little far out right now, but you know,
we'd love to have you on to keep us updated
as we pay attention to it. Always appreciate your insight.
Speaker 4 (31:20):
What is a pleasure to be on your show and
think to your your holly intelligent audience.
Speaker 3 (31:26):
So thank you those.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
Robert Cohally, cheap pollster of the Tialgro Group. Appreciate him
for making the time to come on the show. Appreciate
you guys at home for listening every Tuesday and Thursday,
but you can listen throughout the week.
Speaker 2 (31:37):
I also want to thank John Cassi and.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
My producer for putting the show together.
Speaker 2 (31:40):
Until next time.
Welcome to the Truth with Lisabouk, who we try to
get to heart of the issues that matter to you. Today,
we're talking to Robert Khali. He's the chief polster of
the Trafalgar Group. You know when we've seen him on Fox,
we've had him here on the podcast. Well, we're going
to dig in to these big off year elections, these
two gubatorial races that you've been hearing about that we've
been following in New Jersey and in Virginia. So Trafalgar
(00:24):
basically has these races as a neck and neck contest.
Now a lot of people are talking about these races
that they're bellwethers for what's to come next November of
the upcoming midterm elections.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
So are they. We'll talk to Robert about that.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
We'll ask him what he thinks.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
We'll also talk to him about.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Why these races are tightening, what's going on in those states. Also,
we're just going to talk about the upcoming midterms as well.
What do we what do we know now, where do
things stand in this political environment, what a President Trump's
approval ratings look like as well. Also, you know, as
we continue to head down this road of a government chetdown,
(01:02):
do you care? How much do Americans care? We'll get
Robert's take on all of this and more so, stay
tuned for Robert Kahally with the Trafalgar Group.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
Well, Robert, it's great to have you back on the podcast.
I'm really interested. You've had a couple of interesting polls
out recently on New Jersey in Virginia, so I'm very
interested in getting your take on the political environment today
and kind of where everything stands. So I appreciate you
making the time.
Speaker 4 (01:34):
Yeah, well, you know, it's first of all, just always
good to be on your show. I think a lot
of the listeners, not only the quantity, but the quality
of the people who listen to your show. The people
that I hear from after I've been on your show,
let me know a lot about the type of listeners
you have. And you really do have a very in
(01:56):
tuned audience that I feel like a lot of decision
makers are among them.
Speaker 2 (02:02):
Well, it's very right, So I appreciate you saying that.
Thank you.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
Well, it's just it's true.
Speaker 4 (02:06):
So I don't know what as to say, but what
I will tell you is, uh, Virginia, it is a
tale of two of two different states when it comes
to uh, these two races for both governor uh and
the other state wives in Virginia, So what we're seeing
right now is we're seeing a very very tight race
(02:29):
for governor. We We've got this thing between one and
two points.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (02:35):
It's just is very very tight and in Virginia, excuse me,
in New Jersey, and you know, it really is going
to depend a little a good bit on get out
the vote and how well they mobilize. But there are
a lot of upset people, especially the tax issue, and
(02:56):
there's you know, there's still a lot of questions, uh,
about the fact that you know, the Democratic candidate, she
just she's not given enough information about where she is
on not releasing her.
Speaker 3 (03:12):
Record from the Naval Academy. I mean, it's just there's.
Speaker 4 (03:16):
A lot of questions that's why she didn't walk and
what she did or didn't do. And you know, if
it really is the truth that she just didn't want
to rat on other people, I mean, if there's any
state that might respect that, it might be New Jersey.
Not true, Well, I just invented a lot of people.
But but the fact is, but if that's all it is,
(03:38):
then then you know, she won't release the documents that
could they could back that story up, and so that's
that's a real question there.
Speaker 3 (03:46):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (03:47):
But you know, we've got that thing right now at
a one point race. I've seen some other polling that
hasn't much wider, but frankly, mostly the other polling that
hasn't much wider or poles that tend to get this
thing wrong. We have the number one poll in New Jersey,
in Virginia and twenty twenty one, and when I look
(04:09):
at it, I mean, you know, the other place that
I mean if all the other polls out there, the
ones that I thought were really good in New Jersey
is Emerson and Emerson had it tied. So I think
there is this is a very close race. Not saying
the Republicans.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
Going to win, but I think it's.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
One that with just a little bit of tweak either way,
this one could go to the Republicans.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
Now they say snitches can or stitches end up in ditches, right,
so maybe in New Jersey. But you know, but she's
also there's also been like a few missteps with her,
like she had that really horrible interview with Charlottage and
the God and not being able to answer world, this
money's coming right, Like there just seems to be like
her inability to kind of explain things. To your point,
you had mentioned twenty twenty one, Phil Murphy at the
(05:02):
time against Chiarelli was favored to win by seven eight
seven point eight points in their Broker Politics average, but
only ended up beating Jack Ciarelli by two point eight points.
So to your point, like, do.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
You think that's it?
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Yeah, that one, so you were accurate. So like, should
you think that this is going to be you know,
in a couple of weeks here, I guess not even
probably less than that we're going to find out. Is
this going to be another big polling miss from people?
Do you think?
Speaker 4 (05:29):
I mean when I when I look at some of
the some of these poles that are coming out showing
margins at five and seven and seven, I'm I just like,
I don't know what they're doing. I really don't know
what they're doing. I just I think it's going to
be much closer me. You know, with us in Emerson
it's a four point gap, and I think I think
(05:50):
it that's Real Clear is going to do a better
job this time, just because Real Clear is only as
good as the poll that it has it. Uh. So
I mean that you know, you can't you can't blame
on him moment when the when the when the polls
aren't so great. But no, I think that that is
definitely one that I think could be a a polling miss.
(06:12):
I think it's going to be closer uh than a
lot of these polls out there right now as.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
We moved to Virginia, though Virginia.
Speaker 4 (06:22):
Our closest one, uh is we have at a three,
and you know it is What's what's frustrating, I think
as you look at it, I guess from a Republican standpoint,
is that you know you've got this uh plus three
for the for uh Speckerberg, and then all of a
(06:44):
sudden when you go to Attorney General, you know we've
got a plus five uh from yeras versus Jones. So
there's a problem in the city you're selling this thing.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
It is like she's not it ought to be an
easy sales pitcher.
Speaker 4 (07:06):
This lady says she's an independent and that you know,
she's just not about parties. That's your whole legislative record,
and the reason she has survived in years when the Republicans.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
Won is because she's always sold herself.
Speaker 4 (07:19):
As kind of a middle of the road Democrat who
didn't mind stepping away from party. I mean, even when
it came time to criticize Northum, she was first in line.
But somehow she's unwilling to do this with Jones, unwilling
to completely disavow. And I just don't think that that
(07:40):
Sears is pushing this hard enough because what we've seen
is the crowd that moved away from from the Democrat
nominee and moved towards Sears was the over sixty fives.
But what I'm not seeing yet is that same movement
with the forty five to sixty five. And frankly, that's
(08:04):
a group that you are not going to get with
traditional with traditional eb ads like people watching TV and
that kind of stuff versus you know, people.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
That are unplugged that are more digital. That forty five
sixty five crowd is a harder crow to put a
message in front of.
Speaker 4 (08:23):
And I just don't see them selling it quite the
way they need to there because Member is really in
a good position if she can, if she could take
this issue and move beyond it, like saying, all right,
I'm tired of talking about the Attorney General and just
move on from that. And the other question is does
(08:46):
who pays the price for all the shutdown stuff? I mean,
because a lot of these people are the ones who
aren't getting.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
Paychecks of workers in Virginia.
Speaker 3 (09:01):
Right now, don't You're wrong?
Speaker 4 (09:03):
These are federal workers who know more than most people,
and so who they choose to blame this shutdown on
might be a more informed the decision than you would
expect it to be in some of the years. I mean,
these people know exactly what's going on, and I mean,
you know, if you say CR, they know what that means.
Average America don't know what CR means, but they do.
(09:27):
And so the fact that Humor has never voted against
the CR of an against CR, now he's against one
when they've got a clean one, that they might understand that.
Speaker 3 (09:36):
But it really is going to depend on how that
is sold.
Speaker 4 (09:40):
And again the tiptoeing around Trump, because what we saw
the last time was young and did an incredible job
of leveraging Trump where he made such a difference in
the southern and western part of Virginia without paying the
price in the northern Virginia with the people who are
DCN decided who didn't like him.
Speaker 3 (10:01):
Now, is she talented enough to that? Is her team
talented enough to do that? I don't know.
Speaker 4 (10:07):
I do know that I have not seen the level
of campaign that young can put out there. I haven't
seen her exercise campaign like that, and I think that
that is something that is incredibly important and she needs
to do it. And frankfully, I mean, if it were me,
(10:27):
I would be talking about the thing with Jones, and
about the transgender bathroom stuff, and about parent rights and schools.
I mean I would just be hammering on those things.
But this idea of she can't be independent, she can't
be courageous if she won't simply say I'm not backing
this guy anymore.
Speaker 3 (10:46):
Got to take a quick commercial break. More Robert on
the other side.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
So we're talking about two of the big gubernatrol E
races this upcoming in November in Virginia between Abigail Spamberger
and the Lieutenant governor win some series. And then in
New Jersey you've got Jack Ciarelli running against Representative Mikey Cheryl.
You know, looking at these two states, did you think
(11:13):
it's harder in Virginia because you know, Republicans obviously have
an incumbent governor who's term limited there Glenn Youngkin, Versus
in New Jersey, where you know, people are sort of
sick and tired of Phil Murphy who's on his way out,
like they want change. Do you think it's it's easier
for like Jack Cirelli maybe has like a clearer path
(11:34):
considering he would be the change candidate in the state
there in New Jersey.
Speaker 3 (11:38):
I'm going to me say it this way.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
Looking at these two states six months out, I would
have said Virginia is the easier lift, but campaigns and
candidates matter, and today I'd rather be in New Jersey
than Virginia.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Interesting, you know, are these two states. You know, obviously
a lot of people are saying that these are bell
weather states. I know historically that's kind of how we've
looked at them and these off your elections before mid
terms to try to get an idea what the upcoming
midterm elections will look like. But you know, if you
go back you look at the twenty twenty four election,
you know, President Trump, despite sweeping all seven swing states
(12:23):
and winning the popular vote, did lose both New Jersey
and Virginia by almost six percent. Now that's a considerable
drop from where Joe Biden, you know where he was
pulling and where he won in twenty twenty. But still like,
are these bell weather races? Can you call them that
given the fact that you know both these states appear
(12:44):
pretty blue, or how would you characterize them? And are
these bell weathers.
Speaker 4 (12:49):
For Republican wins in New Jersey? I think that tells
people a lot if a Democrat wins in Virginia or
Republican wins, I don't. I think it speaks to Virginia
may be more purple, but purple outside.
Speaker 3 (13:10):
Of Trump.
Speaker 4 (13:12):
Because Trump is such an anti establishment, anti swamp, anti
DC insider candidate that he will never do as well
in Virginia than someone who has not seen that way.
It's like Trump has taken on the swamp and understands
(13:33):
that when you take on the swamp, then you're not.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
Going to get the swamp vote.
Speaker 4 (13:39):
But you know, someone is seen as a less maga
or maga light might very well be able to carry
a state like Virginia, and probably easier than a Republican
could carry New Jersey. However, if New Jersey would elect
(13:59):
or Republican and then like what they saw, like say
Chiarelli really made a big difference, and people saw an
immediate you know, whether it was something to do with
the tax or something like just an immediate turnaround, then
then I think.
Speaker 3 (14:15):
That they could both be competitive states.
Speaker 4 (14:18):
But I would say Glen Younkin has proven the outside
of an anti swamp candidate and and not not that
Glen Younkin is pro swamped, but I mean he's not
crucading against the swamp.
Speaker 2 (14:31):
It was a really good candidate, right, Like I think,
you know.
Speaker 4 (14:35):
There is no Yeah, he's one of the best candidates
has been run for governor anywhere.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Yeah, like with respect to win some series Like Glenn
Younkin's just on another level.
Speaker 4 (14:44):
Right, So it's like, yeah, she's not a Glen Youngkin.
Speaker 3 (14:48):
I mean there's just you know, there's there's no question.
Speaker 4 (14:51):
And and she doesn't have everything that that I can
see and the stories I hear are campaign isn't on
the same level as Glen Youngin And it's just there's
just a level of doing things that that Glenn Youngkin,
just the way that his campaign operated. Now I do
(15:12):
hear that Sears has a first class get out the
vote team, but in the end getting out the vote.
All that depends on whether the candidate has sold it,
and at this point, I don't think that she's the
point where she sold it enough to get over the hump.
Now she's got a little more time to sell it,
and she definitely got it tight when a lot of
(15:33):
people are voting early. But there's gonna be there's gonna
be a good number of people who are going to
vote in the next few weeks, and you know, we're
going to see where where she is.
Speaker 3 (15:42):
Then.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
I used to live in Virginia. I grew I was
born and raised in Virginia and used to live in
northern Virginia. And it's definitely it's very liberal in the state.
Seems to be trending or blue. It used to have
some purple elements if I remember correctly, and now it
just kind of seems like it's, you know, a little
bit more of a blue state.
Speaker 4 (16:05):
But we'll see, because again, all we have to look
at and presidential is three elections with the ultimate anti
swamp candidates. I mean, that's all our recent election results
we got to look at. So you know, in twenty
twenty eight, if if we had had somebody that was
(16:27):
you know, again Trump lighter or even somebody who was
seen as you know, much more of an establishment type Republican,
I'm not so sure it.
Speaker 3 (16:34):
Wouldn't move back into purple category.
Speaker 4 (16:38):
But and I guess if I were if I were Trump,
I'd say being against the swamp is worth losing Virginia.
And I think that's a smart thing to say. But
the next candidate might not feel that way.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
You look at j Jones, the Democrat candidate for Training
General of Virginia. You know, obviously he's on record wishing
for the death of a political Republican uh politician in
the state, as well as his children. Just I mean,
it's insane. But like that, see you know that race
you had mentioned where Mirus is. Now that he's up
(17:13):
in that race, the Republican candidate who's the you know,
sitting attorney general right now, I guess that that just
totally changed the game. And I mean that even changed
they were. We'll see if it impacts the top of
the ticket with the gubernatorial race, but I mean that
race has just shifted. I guess that's a good sign.
Should make us all feel better than even in a
you know, a seemingly blue state like Virginia that those
(17:36):
words would matter, right, But this shift in the race
since those comments surfaced.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
I mean, it's just it just.
Speaker 4 (17:47):
Again, Virginia is a place where the most liberal element are,
even the most middle of the road element are also
what you would say as high information voters. So that
is going to completely permeate high information voters. They're going
(18:10):
to know all the details of that scandal in a
way that some other states might not. There's still people,
believe it or not, people who make decisions in America
really don't know everything that is going on. But Virginia's
not place like that, especially northern Virginia. So that's a
lot of where we saw the shift. It's like, that's
(18:33):
not okay. And those folks, I mean, they they hear there,
and it just it is it's just kind of I mean,
you know, the old expression is too soon.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
It is far too soon to be making jokes like that.
It's just too soon, and it really is kind of distasteful.
Speaker 4 (18:56):
And so I think that I think that it doesn't
surprise me that that move the race so much.
Speaker 3 (19:05):
It's also.
Speaker 4 (19:07):
There just becomes almost a bandwagon effect that people are
just like, well, you know, how all the time people
are looking to kind of establish themselves that their society,
you know, their social status is like they took this
stand in that stand, you know that this is a
place somebody who kind of leans to the left can say,
(19:27):
but I'm.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
Not for that.
Speaker 4 (19:30):
You know, this is where they place that little marker, well,
but I'm not for that. And so that that's why
this doesn't surprise me so much, because even the most
middle of the road person who maybe certainly lean Democrat,
who probably would have voted Democrat for Attorney General beforehand,
(19:50):
can say, well, no, but I'm but I'm not for that, and.
Speaker 2 (19:54):
Then that and then I give this all comfort because
it's been a little worrisome with some of that. So,
you know, do you look at this shutdown. I think
it's the third longest shutdown today. We'll see how much
longer it goes on for do Americans care? Like we're
I mean, obviously we're talking about the Virginia inventure race.
They're more plugged in because you have a lot of
(20:14):
federal workers who are directly impacted by it, so they
you know, they're they're kind of forced to pay attention
to it, right But for like the rest of Americans
like how much do they care? Like does this impact
the political environment, or like kind of how do you
see this as a poster?
Speaker 4 (20:32):
Well, I think that the one place we'll start to
see people who will care is if it really starts
to be not just a little impact, but a significant
impact on plane travel, both with the TSA and the
UH and with the air traft controllers.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (20:52):
So, I think that's a place where people interact with
federal government. And then the fact that that the military
is getting paid and that they're funding some some other
things I think was being funded.
Speaker 3 (21:07):
The fact that some of that's happening.
Speaker 4 (21:08):
Into the court and they shoot it all down, but
nobody's going to go back and ask for the money
back for people who got money. So, you know it
really it really depends on your interaction. And I would
tell you that most of the people who would be
most angry about a government shut down are going to
be people who was expecting a check who didn't get it,
And a lot of them aren't necessarily people who are
(21:32):
swing voters. I mean that that is that is in
essence part of the problem with the out there is
that there's so many people who are so dependent I
have seen this year after year after year, people campaigning
on these people are going to cut off the checks
coming to you.
Speaker 3 (21:51):
And there's a segment of the population.
Speaker 4 (21:53):
Who, when you say you're getting a check from the government,
it'll be less or you won't get it if this
party wins, will vote on that check. We even saw,
and I don't care what anybody who wasn't there fail
at you. In twenty twenty one, those two runoffs in Georgia,
those weren't about Trump. Those were about one simple thing.
(22:14):
Mitch McConnell had said, no more money, just the seven
hundred dollars checks or the six hundred dollars checks, and
Schumer had said they'll get fourteen hundred more if my
two sentators went, and that is what people ran on.
They literally they were truck driving to Georgie, get your
extra fourteen hundred dollars.
Speaker 3 (22:34):
Elect these two.
Speaker 4 (22:35):
A Republican won the Public Service Commission right off. That
was owned the ballot that day. It wasn't Republicans didn't
turn out as you made Republicans choose between fourteen hundred
dollars in their pocket and voting Republican. And my rule
has always been in a democracy you should never send
out checks before an election. But if you break rule
(22:57):
number one, rule number two is you got to be
the big number, and they weren't. Mitch McConnell said, there's
no discussion these two wins. It ain't gonna happen. And
so so again, people vote their pocketbook, So the shutdown,
the people whose pocketbook it hurts are gonna be the
ones most move But there are also not a lot
(23:17):
of swing voters that follow in that category.
Speaker 2 (23:21):
Where do President Trump's approval readings stand today, and how
do you think that impacts in the terms.
Speaker 4 (23:27):
Well, we haven't we haven't done a recent approval, but uh,
what I've seen from the you know, I mean, here's
the thing, it's not hard to figure.
Speaker 3 (23:35):
Out who the good polsters are. Uh.
Speaker 4 (23:38):
All you got to do is go look at the
election results. And then everybody who was off three or
four points on average just quit paying attention to their polls.
And when you do that, there's not a lot of
polsters left. And look at what they're saying, and the
ones that we see that we trust. As a matter
of fact, I'm sure probably aware of the National Association
(24:01):
of Independent Bolsters that we are one of the founding
members of all all of the members on that you
can depend on looking at those poles and let me
run through those in case people don't know. That's of
course for Valgar Inside Advantage, Raspbution Report, Big Data poll, Kawanas,
(24:22):
Susquehanna and John McLaughlan poland so those are ones that
you can take a.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
You can look at.
Speaker 4 (24:31):
Those and realize that they're upper esh lined. So what
we see out of most of those is pretty close
to even. And you know, the midterms, I'll give you
some give everybody else there. The midterms are going to
be No matter what anybody tells you, the truth is
they're going to be about the economy. We're going to
(24:52):
have many I mean with the FED chief leaving in May,
there will be many FED meetings after that. And if
they continue to lower the interest rate and the housing
market explodes, which I think it will, if at the
same time a lot of these new onshore jobs that
(25:12):
they had to build or expand factories, they're going to
be hiring it. So I think the unemployment rate is
going to be low. And if the economy is humming
like lower interest rates and more jobs can make it hum.
I think the Republicans will be in great shape. But
if the economy is bad, then I think they won't
(25:34):
be in great shape. And so a lot of this
is out of the control right now. I mean, I
know we're going to have all these redistricting in these
certain states, and the fact is the Republicans have mandered
a lot less of the Democrats, way more Republican states
that can redo theirs. I remember watching Meet the Press
and you know, you had the governor of Illinois, pritzkre
(25:58):
on there talking all that, and then I was actually
really really happy to see welcome call him out and go,
wait a minute. You know, Trump got thirty percent of
the vote, and you know you've got a two or
three congressmen, like you're the most German estate in the country.
You in Massachusetts. It's like she called him out on
it. It's like, who are you to be talking about jerremandering?
(26:20):
And that's the truth. They're all that their states are
so much more. I mean, what, Trump got thirty percent
of the vote Massachusetts and they have zero Republican congressmen.
Speaker 3 (26:29):
So again, those you know.
Speaker 4 (26:32):
Those will those will make a difference in a House
that comes down to three or four five votes. But
the fact is a good economy is going to swing everything.
I can tell you right now. I've done a lot
of study on this. Without the Row versus Way verdict,
you would have what you had in a lot of
states in twenty twenty two. There were a lot of
(26:53):
states that it was a massive red waves. But in
the states where the Democrats built a big machine where
they had a state wide race, they utilized that abortion
ruling or jobs to scare people on what would be
it was the scare tactics.
Speaker 3 (27:08):
By twenty twenty four.
Speaker 4 (27:10):
Most people lived in a state where they were comfortable
with their abortion laws and it didn't play the role
with it. But in twenty twenty two, nobody knew what
was going to happen. The ruling was too new and
so the scare tactics weren't. But again, the economy was good.
The economy was not as bad and affecting things. Because
the economy was bad and people were trying to want
(27:32):
of the Republicans and save that abortion wing, the Republicans
would have massive pickups.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
And I think it's the same way.
Speaker 4 (27:39):
If the economy is bad, they'll want to switch parties
and go back to the Democrats, and the economy is good,
I think the Republicans have an excellent chance of holding own.
So all the tactics out there are fine, but frankly,
more fed meetings and getting those jobs cycled up.
Speaker 3 (27:57):
What's going to make the difference.
Speaker 2 (28:00):
It always comes down to the economy, doesn't it.
Speaker 3 (28:03):
It does in so many ways.
Speaker 4 (28:05):
Yeah, you know, like I said, but and less there's
something that the charges ahead, and in twenty twenty two
that was the Dobs ruling.
Speaker 3 (28:14):
That ruling doesn't happen.
Speaker 4 (28:15):
The Republicans pick up such a massive number that I
don't think Joe Biden would have been able to run.
Speaker 3 (28:21):
For re election.
Speaker 1 (28:22):
We've got to take a quick commercial break. If you
like what you're hearing, please send to your family or
maybe said.
Speaker 2 (28:27):
It to a friend or post on social media. Well
you've also got you know, obviously we've got the redistricts
and stuff that we're still waiting to see what happens
with that. But you know, there's also like I think
thirteen Democrats running in state in district that Trump won,
(28:47):
whereas I think there are only three Republicans running in
states that that Kamala Harris won.
Speaker 4 (28:57):
So let's remember this, Even twenty four we got four
states that Trump won and the Republicans lost Senate race. Frankly,
that's unacceptable. Yeah, that is a ball dropped. That that
is ridiculous and that should have never happened, and that
(29:18):
the Republicans got out smarted with people running. I think Wisconsin,
they created a party called the Maga Party, which got
enough votes to be the difference in that race, and
they played all kinds of games which kind of proved
the Democrats would thinking about one of those races a
year in advance, Republicans were playing catch up. Republicans had
four very good candidates. Don't let anybody blame that on
(29:40):
those candidates. No, that was a structure problem and there's
nowhere around that, and that that was that they just
didn't build the machine the way they should have built it.
There's no excuse for Trump winning as especially as large
as he did in Arizona and uh and Nevada to
(30:01):
lose those races. Just just so, just because Trump won
something doesn't mean the apparatus is there. You know, I
think we still see there's still a lot Republicans still
have a lot of.
Speaker 3 (30:16):
Spending that doesn't win election. That makes people rich well.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
And Trump's such a unique candidate. So to your point,
you know that doesn't always necessarily get passed on to
the Republican running in that race.
Speaker 3 (30:30):
I think it can, but I think they've got to
do the work to make it happen.
Speaker 4 (30:34):
Yeah, and again losing out to somebody who got on
the ballot as a MAGA candidate with the literally the
term magot beside their name, that's not the way, you know.
I mean that that happening Wisconsin, and that that was
somebody not handling the stuff right a year out before
there was even Republican nominee.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
So again I put that on the structure.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
Well, Robert Cohawley, we will be watching this November. The
race is there. We'll see what happens in New Jersey
and Virginia and would love to have you back as
we head into the midterms and things start picking it.
Obviously we're a little far out right now, but you know,
we'd love to have you on to keep us updated
as we pay attention to it. Always appreciate your insight.
Speaker 4 (31:20):
What is a pleasure to be on your show and
think to your your holly intelligent audience.
Speaker 3 (31:26):
So thank you those.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
Robert Cohally, cheap pollster of the Tialgro Group. Appreciate him
for making the time to come on the show. Appreciate
you guys at home for listening every Tuesday and Thursday,
but you can listen throughout the week.
Speaker 2 (31:37):
I also want to thank John Cassi and.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
My producer for putting the show together.
Speaker 2 (31:40):
Until next time.
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