August 25, 2025 • 53 mins
Colin’s on vacation, so enjoy some of his best NFL takes along with “3 and Out” host John Middlekauff.
Timeline:
3:45 Sean Payton’s incredible rebuild of the Denver Broncos
11:15 NFL win totals
26:45 Top 10 quarterbacks
35:00 “Culture builder” coaches
40:00 Disaster looming for the Dallas Cowboys?
57:45 Projections for the Packers
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
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Speaker 1 (01:19):
Something popped in my head the other day. PFF had
Sean Payton as the second best coach in the league,
and I actually, and I'm not saying this because I
get along with Sean, we really hit it off. But
I'm also saying this, I don't think he's quite getting
enough credit for what he's done in Denver. And some
of that is Harbaugh soaks up so much of the
glare because he's such a character, and then there's the
(01:41):
reigning dynasty in the division, and now you've got Pete
Carrolyn Chip Kelly. So Denver sort of gets lost from
a publicity standpoint. But John think about this. So he
goes into an organization and the culture's broken, the quarterback's
a mess, and there's impending new ownership. So he goes
in the first year, I think they are one game,
(02:03):
they win three more games. He makes Russ functional. He
cleans up the offensive line from like twenty first to
like seventh. It just got ranked second by the way
PFF's grade starting the season. It's now second. Last year
with Herbert Mahomes, Harbaugh Reid, he has a rookie quarterback.
(02:27):
They end up leading the league in sacks. It is
now a bonafie top offensive line with really one Courtland Sutton,
one dependable weapon. And I mean, I just I looked
at them last year and I thought I thought they'd
be good with Bonnix. I don't think we understand it.
(02:48):
You start looking at that division and in almost every
other division with the number two oher line Sean Payton,
a very capable young quarterback leader in sacks, they get
green Law and Hufunga. I'm like, are we I think
what he's done there the last year to make the
playoffs with eighty nine million dollars, I think it was
in dead cap money? Are we undervalue in use? Are
(03:09):
the glare with everybody else? What he's done in Denver.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
I've watched a couple of his press conferences during OTAs.
He thinks his team's pretty good. He thinks his team's
pretty good because defensively they got a chance to dominate.
And if you have a dominant defense with an offensive
coach who's proven, like, how are your floor is so high?
I mean your floor is immediately like ten wins. And
someone sent me this DM recently. They said, you know,
(03:34):
everyone talks about Jayden and I understand why, but look
at pull up the stats for bow Knicks and jay
I think we talked about bow Knicks like he threw
eighteen touchdowns. He threw twenty nine touchdowns. Now some of
these are scheme touchdowns, but his numbers, you know, you know,
the accuracy is something that I think he has to
work on. Now the weapons have the running back in
the draft, but I do think that you know, is
(03:58):
he a guy Undershawn Peyton if he just becomes like
Sean Payton's version, even if he's not Drew Brees or whatever,
but just like a Jared Goff a brock Party, like
a consistent artor for they're gonna be really good for
a while. And I know last week you had the
Chargers for they could be to win the division. It's
not just not inconceivable, right because he's a he's a
unique second year player. How old is he twenty five
(04:20):
years old, like he's played a lot of.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
Football, and he I think unless you watch him, he
didn't move a lot at Oregon. Sean lets him move
and he can. I mean, he's an athlete that that
dude is ripped. When I went to the Oregon Utah game,
I saw him play the Huskies, but I was up,
so I bought really good seats for Oregon Utah. I
wanted to be behind Oregon's bench. And he's on the
(04:43):
sideline and he is cut and you just watch him
in these NFL games and I always kind of look
at it. When a quarterback runs, how's the outside linebacker,
how's the outside linebacker stack up? He runs past him.
I mean he when he gets ahead of steam going,
he can move past guys. And I remember when Johnny
Manziel broke into the league. He went for a couple
(05:04):
of runs in the defensive end chased him out and
You're like, yeah, that's not gonna work. That's just not
gonna work when that guy is chasing it down. But
I Sean is one of those no nonsense guys, and
he's a little gruff. I remember when he said something
in Aaron Rodgers. You know, when he said something about
NTT Hackett. And again, I don't think the media always
gives Sean quite a fair shake because he's pretty rough
(05:27):
and pretty direct. But that funga pickup. You know, he's
been banged up. He's an elite safety well to.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
Me, I mean two years ago as well pro in
green Law. I mean a lot of question marks with
his with his health. But if one of those two
guys is a full time player, let alone both of them,
the violence of their defense will be it'll be one
of the, if not the hardest hitting defense in the league.
I mean, they already were right up there last year.
And you know, we talk a lot about this when
(05:57):
it comes to quarterback, especially young quarterbacks. Is the intangibles,
the maturity, the focus, the drive. You know, bo Nicks
and Jaden gets a lot of credit for that, rightfully,
so Bo bo Nick should be right there too in
terms of, you know, the way they spoke about him
at Oregon, his maturity, also what he's been through a
lot like Jayden, like and I would say unlike Jayden,
(06:19):
it's easier to fail at Arizona State. No one really cares.
Team hasn't Mado. You struggle at Auburn when you're in
his situation like that was a that was like an NFL,
the way they're covered, the amount of people that care. Uh,
the spotlight that was on him. Remember he was I
think his first start was against Justin Herbert. Remember that
organ Vern game.
Speaker 1 (06:38):
Along line well in the corner. He played a big
throw as a freshman into the corner of the end
zone to win it.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
And then his career just kind of unraveled as their
program did. And then he went to Oregon. You've seen
them in two stable environments, Oregon and Denver, and he's thrived.
So it's safe to say, like, yeah, pretty impressive guy.
I would bet on bow Knicks because Sean Payton clearly
not going anywhere. I mean, they are a twelve thirteen
win season away from Sean Payton then getting a huge
contract extension, right he was given five years ninety million.
(07:08):
That they have a good year and the trajectory of
this franchise and listen, I would have assumed when Sean
got the job that General Patton, the GM would have
been fired. And John kind of feels like he's worked
pretty seamlessly. They worked together. Maybe Sean's realized I got
to pick my battles, like, let's just get along, and
it feels like they got a pretty stable organization. That's
(07:29):
the thing with Pete Carroll and the Raiders, like Jim
Harbaughs kind of matured. Sean Payton's at a different stage
in his life obviously. You know, Andy's the most human
feature on the scene. It's a really really difficult division
with these guys like that have really figured it out,
that have cracked the code of personality. What it takes,
the energy that it takes, what they're looking they know
exactly what they're looking for.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
It's pretty scary. Yeah, No, I think I think, actually
Patton's a pretty good GM. I thought I didn't think
the problem was I thought the problem was Hacke It listen,
it happens. I mean, Bob Kraft is a good owner.
He hired draw on Mayo and he just wasn't ready
for it. Like it happens. It's hard to hire coaches.
(08:10):
I mean, they took a huge swing on Sean McVay
in Los Angeles. They wouldn't let him out of the building.
That was a but you know, at one point Lane
Kiffin was in the NFL and was a pretty good coach.
The dysfunction of the Raiders ended that.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
But and they tired Packet right because they thought Rogers
was gonna come, which I would have done two at
the time. I mean that was yeah.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
Listen, Josh McDaniels was a guest on my show and
we kept in touch. He's a really, really sharp guy.
It just hasn't worked as head coach. He's a tremendous coordinator.
So whatever the magic is, I don't know exactly what
it is. Some guys work some dope. I wanted to
so the you know, the overs and unders are coming out,
(08:53):
so I want us to give the audience have some fun. Here.
Two overs and two unders, and I'll start this. All
the odds are provided by DraftKings sportsbook. So I'm going
to give you an under, then you give me an under,
and I'll give you another under, and then we'll do
two overs. So my first under is the Chiefs at
(09:15):
eleven and a half. Okay, Joe Tooney was by far
and away the most had the most dexterity of any
of their offensive linemen. He's gone. They are now crossing
their fingers on a backup left tackle from San Francisco.
They were eleven and zher in one possession games right,
(09:37):
and now the division is much better. The coaching and
the quarterback play Bo Nixon, year two, Geno Smith, if
they get a running back in the first round. Geno
Smith has a one zero six passer rating in Seattle
on play action passing, like if you give him a
run game, Gino's very good on third and two. Right,
(10:00):
He's very good with play action passing second in five,
third and two, third and three. So I don't think
I would take the under. Now, maybe they just go
eleven and six, but I think the division is going
to be improved. The quarterback play between Gino second year
Bo again. I thought last year there were offensive line
(10:23):
injuries with the Chargers. My guess is they'll be healthier. Okay,
what say you give me an give me an under?
Speaker 2 (10:30):
Did you say ten and a half On that number.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
It's eleven and a half. DraftKings has the Chiefs at
eleven and a half. I would bet the under got you.
They have won over twelve games. I think every year Mahomes.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
Has started beside one. Yeah, I hear you. It's you can
have a good year. I mean they won a super Bowl,
win a eleven, I would say an under I like
I do think the forty nine ers who are to
the Rams, won that division and were really good and honestly,
(11:01):
I mean a couple of plays away from potentially beating
the Eagles, and who knows, they might end up in
the Super Bowl and win it. They wanted a ten
and seven, right, So, and they're a team going through
a lot of transition. So the forty nine ers won
six games, though they were in a lot of them.
They kind of melted at the end in a lot
of them. So I actually think I think a lot
of people are gonna think they're gonna win like six
(11:22):
or seven games. I think they're gonna be better than
people think. But once you start getting over ten, like
ten and a half, like you could win nine or
ten games, be that seven seed, hell, compete to win
the division and have a good season. So I think
the days, you know, definitely this season that's gonna be
very dependent on young rookie players.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
Yeah, they have twelve draft picks.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
Yeah, I mean that's we've seen the Rams the last
couple of years. I don't know exactly, They've been a
fantastic team. At the end of the year, They're not
winning twelve games, so I think the Niners probably more
likely to win nine or ten games. I also think
that division is just gonna be you know, the Cardinals
are just a tough game every time.
Speaker 1 (12:00):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Obviously the Rams are good in Seattle, going through a
little bit of a transitional period, but they're head coach.
I think they're a pretty well run operation.
Speaker 1 (12:10):
Yeah, Listen, they're one of my unders too at ten
and a half. Yeah, they tried to get green Law
back from Denver. They did not want to lose Hufunga. Okay,
but those were two big defensive losses. And let's be honest, John,
the Bosa's get hurt when Boso was off the field.
Last year, they were not a very good defense. They
(12:31):
were really inconsistent. So now who Fungus gone, green Law's gone,
Bosa will miss a stretch and it's not a great draft.
So I don't think there's an impact player defensively. Maybe
if they got like Will Johnson at corner from Michigan,
I think that would be a really really you'd have
to be happy with that. But yeah, I think I
(12:52):
have San Francisco as an under. So I have Kansas
City you have San Francisco, I have San Francisco. Give
me another under I would say.
Speaker 2 (13:01):
I think there's a chance Miami is like the one
of the worst teams in the NFL. Like it would
not shock me if you tell me, as you and
I are sitting here doing a free draft a couple
of weeks, Miami's in the mix. Maybe they don't have
the number one overall pick, but I could see him
being like the giants of the Patriots, drafting three or four.
It would not shock me to see them struggle to
(13:21):
win four or five games. I think they're going to
be terrible. I thought that last year, and they just
obviously when two was on the field, they're more functional.
It would not surprise me at all if this Tyreek
situation doesn't go away and he ends up playing for
another team this year. I don't know if that trade
would happen during the draft. I know they've pushed back
against that, maybe at the end of training camp. But
(13:43):
I just expect Miami to implode. I really do. I mean,
I don't really like the Jets that much either, but
like even last year, the Jets do have a lot
of good players. Oh absolutely, I just don't think Miami
has that many good players and they are one concussion
away from all of a sudden, Zach Wilson's are starting quarterback.
Speaker 1 (14:01):
Okay, I'll give you an over. I think Brian Callahan's
a good coach. I think Will Levis is a really,
really bad NFL quarterback. I don't think he was a
great college quarterback.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
And so I look at.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
The over under on Tennessee and you know it's five
and a half. Some have had it at six and
a half. I think they clear that bar easily. First
of all, cam Ward's a playmaker, and nobody's got real
film on him. He didn't do a lot of straight
(14:39):
pocket stuff in college. It was a lot of backyard stuff.
And I think the league will take a while. And
they did this with Jaden Daniels. It took a while
to decode him. People were bo nicks, You're not quite
sure what he is. It's a weak division. The Jags
could be bad, the Colts would be bad. Houston should
be pretty good, not great. I think I'm going to
(15:02):
take the Titans over. I think it's a pretty week schedule.
I think cam Ward is one of the only players
in the draft that can equal wins. I think people
think Callahan's a pretty good coach. And Callahan didn't just
lack trust in will Levis. If you listened to his
postgame comments after losses. He lost them three games straight out,
(15:23):
and you watched his body language, he almost resented that
will Levis was getting in the way of wins, and
so I Titans to me earn over.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Yeah, I don't think people. You know, we talk a
lot about the Browns because of Watson, because Deshaun Watson's
quarterback play by a month and no one was watching
the Titans. Their quarterback play was like historically poor, I
mean the turnovers and sacks he was taking. It was.
Their defense was actually pretty good. Yes, And like any
team with a pretty good defense, when your offense is
that crappy by the time you get to like mid November,
(15:57):
they can't maintain that level of play because they're on
the field so much. So if their offense is just solid,
I'm with you. I mean, he's got his dad there
coaching offensive line. Massive upgrade just based on talent alone.
I would say this, if you look at Vrabel, like
the linebacker version of Harbaugh, you know, wants to play defense,
wants to run the ball. Former players, just guys that
(16:19):
just win. I think the Patriots, we're right up there
with the Bears. Is one of the worst coach teams
you will ever see. Last season, why couldn't they go
nine to eight this year? If you go the Jets,
the Jets are going to be awful. I think the
Dolphins are going to be worse. Ye listen to Bills,
who cares that even if they sweep you. I could
see the Patriots winning eight or nine games.
Speaker 1 (16:41):
Listen, they were seven and a half DraftKings. They are
now up to eight and a half. So the Sharps,
it looks like we're all over the Patriots. So New
England was one of my overs. And I said the
other day on the air, I said, I think Vrabel
from girod Mayo is worth three points. I think Drake
may is worth another point based on sophomore season. And
(17:04):
I think it's reasonable assume one hundred and ninety million
in free agency and eight to nine draft picks is
worth one and a half to two points. So if
they're just five and a half points to six points better,
and again you're talking about between the draft and free agency,
like eight to nine new starters for sure, and a
couple of high end starters. You're talking about Drake May
(17:25):
potentially with a Travis Hunter. You're talking about the worst
coach team to probably one of the seven to eight
to nine best coach teams. That's five and a half
to six points. They were three and six in one
possession games with a rookie quarterback. If that's just six
and three, you don't have to go nine to zero.
This is an eight to nine win team. And again
the Jets a bit lost. I agree with you, Miami's
(17:46):
a mess, So I think New England's in play.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
I would say the other team would be speaking of
Harbaugh the Chargers. You know, last year, I just didn't
pull the trigger and he did exactly what he of course, yeah, yeah,
the five seed. Well this year it's nine and a half,
and everyone always gets off the scent with them during
like free agency, Jim is not going to trade for
DK Metcalf and give one hundred and fifty million dollars. No,
(18:11):
he didn't do it last year. He's not going to
do it this year. He won't do it next year.
You know what he will do though, in like the
second round, all of a sudden, he will draft his
starting tight end for the next seven years and in
the third round find a defensive tackle that everyone's going,
this guy's not that sexy who will just be a
starter for him for a long time. Then you watch
the season and you just go, God. Their team is
just physical and good. He has a really talented quarterback.
(18:32):
Why couldn't they win twelve games? I mean, they're over
under right now is nine and a half. I think
they are a lock. I mean Jim Harbaugh is now
coach in the NFL five years and made the playoffs
in four of them. So I don't know if they
can overtake the Chiefs, but it wouldn't shock me if
it gets a little closer. And don't let free agency
fool you. He's never gonna play in swimming that into
(18:54):
the pool. They are never going to do that. But
you know, you've talked about this huge advantage for Jim.
All these kids coming in the draft. He's recruited them all,
especially the good ones, so he's gonna know these guys.
It's going to be a huge point of difference for him.
I would expect them to have a good draft. His
GM I think is pretty good. I mean, look at
last year, it's like, how did they pass on Malik Davers?
(19:15):
I don't know. They just got their starting tackle for
the next decade. So I think the Chargers they ruled
me is the wrong word. I just didn't have the
Kahonas just because I was like, I don't know if
their roster is quite good enough. They're not gonna have
great ride receivers. He typically never does, and he always wins.
He won a national championship, he went to a Super Bowl,
(19:35):
Like he's not exactly gonna have Jerry Rice in his prime,
and it's gonna work out just fine.
Speaker 1 (19:47):
So I saw something. So ESPN did a survey of executives, coaches, scouts,
and it came out their top ten quarterbacks. And I
was on the plane reading this today and I thought,
that's about as close is any top ten quarterback list
I've ever seen. It Goes Mahomes, Alan Burrow, Lamar Jaden Stafford,
(20:10):
Herbert Goff. I've always thought golf because he's not dynamic,
he's not fun to root for. The guy who was
a number one pick out of Cow he got to
a Super Bowl. I've seen him out do Mahomes in
big games. He's good. Then they go Hurts nine and
Baker ten. And I thought people, when I say this,
that's about as good a list as I've seen. People
would say, oh, what about Baker. Well, I got Baker
(20:31):
if I did a list closer to ten than fifteen.
Now I think over after last year, I think I
kind of scratched down a list on the plane that
I had him at like twelve. But I'm not bothered
at all that Baker. I think Baker and Darnold are
both in that ten to eleven twelve space. I'm totally
comfortable with both.
Speaker 2 (20:47):
I'd say Baker now is two straight years and he
has that second year in Cleveland, and just looking at
him on the golf course since been talked about, he's
definitely lost weight. He looks fantastic, and there is an element,
there's a farving element if you remember when Dorsey took
him number one. Overall the intangible kind of the I
would say this though, for what makes Jalen kind of unique?
(21:08):
And the arguments over Jalen are such a waste of time.
Like he won literally won the Super Bowl Super Bowl MVP,
and I looked at his contract by the end of
like twenty twenty seven, he will accumulated two hundred million
dollars playing football on the field. I'm sure he's making money.
He won, like we can argue till we're blue in
the face once he won the Super Bowl, Like he's
(21:28):
got an element that Goff. I mean, hell, lamar, Josh Allen,
some of these guys are still chasing. I think the
top four. You know, Mahomes hasn't played as well in
the regular season as those other three guys the last
couple of years, but we have full faith in him
and the biggest moments to get it done, and he has.
The top four is just set. If you want to
argue Burrow second, Josh Allen second, I don't care. But
(21:49):
like Mahomes is won, then you can argue the ranking
of the next three. I think what makes Stafford unique
if all the teams were equal, like everyone have the
same team in a one game situation, in a month situation,
he could do anyone and go to toe to toe
with anybody where Jared Goff, if I told you your
offensive line had a lot of question marks, you would
(22:09):
like a Jalen Hurts even Baker more than golf. Yeah,
I mean he can't move. He's on the team with
the best offensive line in the league, so it's you know,
he benefits from that. And that's where I think, you know,
Jayden Daniels, I would have had c J. Strouds like
the fifth or sixth best quarterback last year, and if
you an honorable mention in that thing.
Speaker 1 (22:27):
Yeah, so I thought I may have CJ. Stroud ten
and Baker eleven ish that felt about right. I like Kyler.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
I still like.
Speaker 1 (22:34):
Kyler Murray, so I'm in the minority here. I think
he's elusive, and I think he throws a great ball, But.
Speaker 2 (22:39):
I think CJ's story kind of speaks to Jayden Daniels.
I would say Jaden as a rookie, it's not apples dapples,
but was better than CJ. Just the eye test, you know, numbers. Yes,
you we could argue, but just Jaden is about as
good as it gets. But they did get to kind
of fly under the radar most of the season until
the playoffs. It's you know what makes Brady Peyton, Tiger Woods,
(23:04):
Aaron Judge, whoever great players is every single year, every
single game Aaron Donald for decade, everyone circled him all
week long, and he's still dominated Reggie White, Lawrence Taylor.
It's like, you know, Patrick mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen
have been keeping defensive coordinators up at night for a
long time and they still kick ass. Same with Joe
Burrow last year. Right, you know, Jayden Daniels, this is good.
(23:26):
Everyone's gonna take them seriously. So why I got a
lot of respect for Dan Campbell in the Lions, Like
early on, it's like, okay, you got to the last
couple of years, like everyone has been approaching them like
one of the best teams in the league, and they've
answered the bell. Same with Jared you know, we'll see
Jayden Daniels like no one is sleeping on you this year.
That's from the shittiest team to when you're playing the
pack with the Vikings. That's hard. You know.
Speaker 1 (23:47):
Well, even Baseball figured it out with analytics, is that
they don't want to starter facing a batter for the
third time, right, So you go through the order twice
and then by the time you're gonna face So what
they're telling you even started pictures even aces they want
to they want you out of there. But the third
time because a guy after a third Groove on you
gets a vibe because a lot of pictures get better.
(24:08):
You know Verlander and Waynwright in their prime. I thought
Nolan Ryan was better. Fifth Inning on. Can you imagine
pulling Nolan out with a one hitter in the sixth?
You do a Robin Ventura on you. But the reality
is there is truth to what you're saying. Is it
is very hard in the middle of the marathon, when
you're on the treadmill to break down Jadeen Daniels over
(24:30):
the course of two days on a couch in an
office sleeping and say this is this is the solution.
This is the kryptonite. When you give guys an off
seats and these defensive coordinators they find play. They go
through all the analytics and find out he doesn't see
to his right as well as his left. He's more accurate.
So I do think he was miraculous. But I'll also
(24:52):
make this argument, if I told you you combine Lamar
Jackson and Joe Burrow, that's what I thought Jaden Daniels was.
I thought he was. I mean, Burrow to me is
even better than Mahomes. If you told me two minute
drill a minute fifty left, no timeouts left and protection
(25:14):
is okay. I think Burrow's as good as anybody I've
ever seen in the last ten years. Now, Mahomes gets
all the credit because you give.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
Him Chase and Higgins. Mahomes numbers look a lot different, right.
Speaker 1 (25:24):
You're right, you're right, that's that's fair. But I think
Burrow's ability on third down, third and seven, sitting upon little, tiny,
weird windows, You're like, what in the hell? And I
thought Jaden had that mixed with about eighty five percent
to eighty percent of Lamar Jackson. So I think I
thought Andrew Luck was the best rookie quarterback I've ever
(25:44):
seen with bad teammates, I thought Jayden' surpassed him. He
didn't make the mistakes of Luck. So my take is,
even if he pulls back fifteen percent John, if you
start looking at his third and fourth down numbers last year,
fourth quarter numbers, they are Brady in his prime.
Speaker 2 (26:01):
I've been a lot of people, especially the Lamar defenders,
if you just look at the number, you're like, how
the hell do you have him forth? But if you
read the quotes, the executives and the coaches are very
complimentary of Lamar and I agree his passing, the progress
he's made from when he first won that MVP to
the version he's been these last couple of years in
the rate, he's an elite player now and he's a
fantastic passer, at least in the regular season. And he
(26:22):
wasn't that second half of that Bill's game. It just
Mark Andrews had a couple drops. Jayden is already that immediately,
like he's a dominant passer immediately. Now, if you tell
me he this year he throws thirty eight touchdowns and
ten picks, like he's just on the crash course to
be one of the great players of all time. I mean,
if he just answered, because I thought that about CJ
last year's I got he just games easy to him,
(26:44):
and it gets hard. You know, offensive line wasn't quite
as good the offensive coordinator. That's the thing with Cliff seems
like a great guy, and I know everyone in the
league loves him, but I've seen his offense over the
course of time get figured out a little bit. Now
I like Jayden more than I do Kyler, and it
feels like, you know, that version of Kyler that he
dealt with the maturity was a major question mark, not
a question mark with Jayden, but I do think it's
(27:06):
difficult when everyone's gunning for you like you're an all
pro immediately, you know. And it's just that's not how
they were treated last year on a weekly basis, and
they are gonna get the treatment. I think when you
played the Washington Commanders this year, you're not approaching the
game that much different than when you're playing the Eagles,
like this is a twelve thirteen win team they plan
on they can win Super Bowl, like fucking we are
(27:26):
all in all. You know. Belichick used to go on
these long like diatribes when he played like a one
and eleven Miami team. It's like Bill, remember Julian got
mad at me for the Sky. It's like Julian not
Most people can't take these awful teams seriously, but Bill could.
But everyone can. And this is what Bill and Saban
was great at this too, is that they really can
kind of convince you. You don't need to convince when
(27:47):
you're playing the ten and one Baltimore Ravens or when
you're playing the peak Alabama team in your Georgia, right,
it's the team you don't need a new Rockney speech,
You're not gonna need that when you're playing Washington and
for the last decade, if you're a seventh year player
on the Cowboys or the Eagles, like you got a
cruise through the Washington game, that's no longer the case. Now.
It's same thing with the Lions. And that's where I
(28:08):
think Dan Campbell deserves a lot of credit with the
way he's kinda you know, he's a Harboll brother. I
consider him the third Harbboll brother, the way his intensity
is in his focus. And I know you were hard
on him, but I do think he's proven to be
pretty deep good. Right.
Speaker 1 (28:21):
Yeah, No, I was wrong on Dan Campbell. I thought
I thought he was a bit of a meathead. And
my take was and I was just like, I don't
know if he's smart enough. The league's getting really smart,
really clever offensively, and he's a little bit of a raw,
raw guy. But you know what, it's so authentic. He
is so passionate and it's so authentic, and I think
that the players can feel that authenticity and they buy
(28:41):
into him. And I also think he has a great
front office, and I mean it's just there that's a
front office that doesn't go for flash. I mean, prime example,
a couple of years ago, they get, you know, an
inside linebacker, a running back that they're getting the best
players available. This year they went heavy on interior offensive lineman.
You know, it's got a Rams feel to it. And
that's where he came from. Brad Holmes came from Los Angeles.
(29:04):
That they just draft really good players. I mean this year,
you're like, do the Rams need another outside linebacker? They
get a Michigan kid and they're like, he's great on tape,
He's passionate, he plays hard. The Rams have, you know,
no head cases Detroit similarly, like good guys like all
the Lions guys like Amaran Saint Brown and Aiden Hutchinson
(29:25):
and Jared Goff and Penay Sewell, no a holes, like
all really really good guys. So there are people in
this league and I think Dan Campbell has benefited from
that a really good GM. But he deserves credit. You know,
I think in the NFL you ask so much of
players physically. This is why Mike Tomlin his strength, Pete
(29:48):
Carroll strength, but Tomlin, Vrabel and Dan Campbell have a physicality.
They look like they could play right today is that
you ask so much of. I mean, if you have
a bad thumb, you take a series off. In baseball,
it's understood. If you have a bad calf, you take
a road trip off in the NBA. It's understood. In
(30:08):
the NFL. You play hurt and the coach is going
to ask you to play hurt. And so when you
ask athletes or men, I don't care if you're a
fire chief or a police chief, you're putting people in
harm's way. There is a certain personality, an alpha personality
that works. You know, you can't ask the fire chief,
(30:30):
can't ask all those guys to run into buildings. They
got to believe. Those firemen have to believe that guy
deeply cares about them as human beings beyond just co workers.
And I think Dan Campbell sells that. I think it's authentic.
I think he loves his players. I think they feel it.
I think mcveigh's got that quality too, and I think
(30:50):
all the hardballs too. They love their players.
Speaker 2 (30:53):
And listen, I'm not selling Washington because I think Dan
Quinn has characteristics of that as well. Yeah, and a
tough guy. He's defensive lineman in college, defensive coordinators, tough guy.
But he's like a lovable, tough guy and that's very important,
and I think he is. They're pretty lucky because I
think it's going to be intense for them, But they
have a coach who's been through the ringer, right, He's
(31:15):
a guy that's been fired. He's he had to reinvent
his career obviously. I mean what he did last year
spoke for itself. You know. Dable is a good example
of like a couple of years ago, I'm like, this
is the best coaching job I've ever seen. He won
nine games. I think they've got like three total good players,
but he never been a head coach, and as time
went on, it just kind of, you know, unraveled a
little bit and you don't have as much to lean
(31:35):
on dan Quinn. Once you've been a head coach and
he's been fired, you've kind of seen it all, especially
when you've had success and you've worked for the best
in the business. You know, you talk to anyone with
the Chiefs, there's no taking practices off. I mean, they're
not winning these games late in the season and all
these playoff games close because they have a bunch of
guys that just chill Monday through or Wednesday, Thursday, and
(31:57):
Friday in October November, and then start practicing. You are
obligated to practice. I mean it's a tough environment. No
different with the Ravens, no different now with the Chargers.
With the hardball. Like you said, it is hard. I
mean the NFL, you practice way more than you play,
and these coaches they will push you to the limit
of what they are allowed to use with the pads
they're you know, the the CBA doesn't allow him to
(32:18):
have that many physical practices like they used to, but
the Hardball brothers, obviously Andy, Mike, Tomlin, Carroll Shirley will
push it to the limit when it comes to that.
So I just think the same teams are whinning. We
talk about this all the time, are winning over and over.
I mean, look at the top quarterbacks there on the list.
They also benefit from playing I mean Burrows somewhat of
an outlier, but they all play with really well run
(32:40):
or I mean Baker resurrected his career. You know, if
you would have put Baker in like Arizona the last
couple of years, probably doesn't look but he goes to Tampa,
best GM in the league, or one of them. A
bunch of good players, high level guys, and Boom resurrects
his career. He's matured. And the same with Jared Goff.
Jared Goff just talked about you know, when he was traded,
it really rattled them. A couple of years later, gets
(33:01):
another big extension and now he's you know, I would
say he's going to make five or six Pro Bowls
in his time in the NFC or you knows.
Speaker 1 (33:10):
So they're not playing Matt Stafford. Rams apparently dominated the
Cowboys at that practice they had and then they didn't
play Matt Stafford and uh, you know, controlled the Cowboys
when they played in the game. And I have said this,
the Cowboys I think have one of the weaker staffs.
(33:33):
I think the Mica and the Trayvon Diggs noise. These
guys don't. They want new deals. And I mean the
Rams are playing Stetson Bennett like they're not. They're you
know who, by the way, I'm not, I mean like
disappeared came back. I'll throw this up if I said
to you the two bottom teams in the NFL, I
(33:55):
think the Giants are going to be one, mostly because
of their quarterback situation, they're set. I actually like some
of their players. Their schedules brutal. Their schedules absolutely brutal.
They're going to go all and four against probably Washington
and Philadelphia at best. They split with Dallas, but I
think we would both say the Giants with the schedule
in their quarterback situation, it's going to be pretty dire.
(34:16):
We know Cleveland and the Saints could be really bad.
Dallas may not have playoff wins over the last thirty years,
not many of them. Is it possible they are a
three win team? Is it possible?
Speaker 2 (34:31):
I think it's very difficult. That Dak plays a lot
of games. If you tell me Dak plays fifteen sixteen games,
even really shitty, they're probably winning fifteen or sixty or
I mean five or six games. One things Jerry's proven
is they have had guys kind of come out of
nowhere over shown they actually draft pretty well. So they
get some guys now that they.
Speaker 1 (34:49):
Nail their first round picks usually.
Speaker 2 (34:52):
Yeah, and they get some guys in the mid rounds
that just saw some random guy on defense playing safety
that you didn't who's this Deron Bland guy from sax State,
Fresno State, transfer. They've been a pretty good drafting team.
Hard to overcome, you know, a coaching staff if you're right,
they don't have one of the good staffs. I mean,
this guy was not This guy would not have been
a coordinator in the league. Now. Some stuff, you know,
it's it's perception, it's you know, the buzz of your candidacy.
(35:16):
Are you high or you low? That matters in the
NFL or college too. And he was obviously not thought
of like he once was. But that's a fact. He
would not have been a coordinator in the league. You know,
eber Flus people think he's a good defensive coordinator. Well,
they just re hired him because they knew him, you know,
because he was coaching on their staff several years ago.
Kind of a classic Jerry thing, Mike and Parsons, we
have some I mean, Bosa wasn't two years ago, set
(35:38):
out all camp and just wasn't quite the same that season.
You know, even if you're working on your own beside
practice in the weight room with the training staff, it's
not the same as getting the practice rep. So even
if they signed him September first and he plays or
I guess they'd probably need to do a little before
that because they're playing Thursday night football, But the expectation
for him would have to be tempered a little bit.
And they they're depending on a ton of young guys
(36:00):
on the offensive line and that can be very hit
or miss. Yeah, when it hits, it's awesome. We saw
the Chiefs kind of doing that last year too, and
I was like, whoa, you know, well, it can flip
on you quick. So free Fields. I do think they
have an infrastructure of guys that have won, Like even
when Mike had comes back, he's won a lot of games,
Dak Ceedee Lamb, like, they got some solid players. But
I do think it could just be they could be
(36:22):
the last place team in the division if if the
coach is over his head and they're I mean they're
pretty top heavy. I mean, Ceedee Lamb pulls amstream. What
the hell are you gonna do? Ford, Georgia Dickens.
Speaker 1 (36:31):
Yeah, I mean I agree with you, and I was
a little over the top. I coaching is at least
thirty to forty percent of this league. It's a big
part because you know the margins is, you know, the
average game is decided by four to six points, and
I mean, Mike McCarthy's a good coach and struggled in
close games. I mean, they always had too many penalties
with Mike McCarthy. They weren't good situationally. Some of that is,
(36:55):
you know, Dak Cooper rush, Dak got banged up. Dak
now and he's never been a great thrower back now
as a pocket quarterback. So my take is the George
Picken acquisition could end up being you know, we all
looked at it and went, oh boy ooh immature. It
may have saved this team because you can't roll your
(37:17):
coverage over out of just cdee lamb. Because George is
such a hard physical matchup, with his coaching, with his
catching radius. My take is there's always an acquisition, and
we look at it was maybe Xavier McKinney for the
Packers or somebody. When they got him, didn't they get
him with the Giants. You look up, You're like, god, damn,
he's a good football player. I think the George Pickens
(37:38):
thing really ends up kind of at least making the
Cowboys a good watch. I mean, I'll watch the I
want to watch Pickens with Zach, I want.
Speaker 2 (37:48):
To watch him with brun Shott. Nimers. He listening to him.
He wasn't listening to Mike Tomlin's gonna listen to that guy.
I think one Gruden talked about this, Mike Lombardi talked
about this those latter years of Al Davis, and it
was always probably like this. But when it got really
out of control, players knew that when the coordinator the
head coach got mad at him, they would just circumvent
them and go right to the owner's office because they
(38:08):
knew he was in charge if he wanted to of
the plays of who got cut like he was. He
was very involved in football, and he was making all
the decisions. That is not the case with all these teams. Right,
if you play for the Chiefs, you know who the bosses,
Andy Reid, you know you play for the good teams,
you know the boss, the head coach in the GM,
You're not circumventing them to the owner right when that happens.
(38:31):
Remember when Chip Kelly got fired in Philly, and like
some of the players were talking to Jeffrey Lurry, I
was like, that's never a good sign. You know what
you have it? You don't hear that in Philadelphia? They
know Howie and Sirianne, like, if you got an issue,
you go to them, right. And I think that these players,
especially the last couple of years, because Jerry in the
social media world we live in, he's so out front,
(38:54):
he talks so much. They knew Mike McCarthy, who had
won a super Bowl and won a ton of games, like, oh,
to anybody, you're not the boss, right, We'll go to
Jerry if we have an issue, and then and then
I'll just become a public thing and it becomes a
shit show. I think it's hard to overcome that, and
I think they almost did, because, let's face it, like
Mike kind of knows what he's doing. He has some limitations,
(39:14):
and I you know, he's got exposed a couple times
in the playoffs, but he's a pretty good coach. Went
twelve games three years in a row with with Jerry,
which is not easy to do. Is Brian gonna be
able to handle that? Like? What if a what if
Mike Parsons doesn't like what Eberfluis is telling him. Once
he's finally signed, let's go. I mean he's already been
meet with Jerry. He just go to Jerry's office. Hey, Jerry,
we got this is not can you talk to Ebra
Fluis about running this coverage? Because that was a classic thing.
(39:37):
Now Al was more involved, like truly with the scheme.
But if I was a player and I had if
I thought the coach was an idiot, and I had
an owner like Jerry, I'd go right into his office
or give him a call. Jerry Steven, we this is
not going to work for me. And that is a
media implosion. And that might be if this team really
goes down, that could be something that Dak and his
(39:58):
leadership couldn't even over come. That's where it could really
be a problem. And I do think the gap between
a Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer could be like at
the forefront, be like, God, there's a gap between those
two guys. And remember last year Mike that got injured
with the hamstring injury, and it was like, oh, they're fucked,
And then as the season went on, you're like, you know,
(40:19):
that's pretty respectable what they did. The way it's just like, yeah,
a well run operation. There's a big gap. And we
talked about this with Jim Harbaugh. They could be a disaster,
but they're still win eight or nine. Games, not two
or three right like they did with that year with
Brandon Staley when they imploded. Well, the difference between eight
and three or four can be a couple of players
just quitting on you in October and then all of
(40:40):
a sudden you kind of like start questioning yourself and
it can implod. So maybe worst case scenario, you get
weird stuff happening in an injury. Players quit on you
and don't believe on in you. It could be a problem,
and that would be Jerry's fault. Jerry's created this. You know,
culture gets thrown around a lot, but the culture in
Dallas is just Jerry. You just kind of do it.
Jerry wants. Jerry's in control. Mike McCarthy plays out his
(41:03):
last season. That was bizarre the way he does. These players,
I mean, they're just kind of run right now really
unlike all the respectable teams. And you know, for three
years with Mike McCarthy, I know, they bombed down in
the playoff. They were respectable twelve games every year, really
good players. But all the other teams they're competing, the Packers,
the Niners, all the teams they are losing to, they
(41:23):
don't operate anything like that with their owner. But it's
not going to stop as long as you know. It
feels like it's getting worse, doesn't it.
Speaker 1 (41:31):
Yeah. No, I think going back to your initial comment,
I think they they're starting to feel like Al Davis
the last six or seven years there. It's interesting what
power does to men. I think women tend to age
a little bit more gracefully, but wealthy guys, you know,
(41:53):
it could be Sumner Redstone. Is it Summer Redstone or
Sumner Redstone.
Speaker 2 (41:58):
I forget a lot of.
Speaker 1 (42:00):
These old guys. They get a little crazy and they
lack self awareness, and most of them are not like
Warren Buffett. It's like, hey, I could still do this
for three or four more years, but you know it's time.
And I think you see this. I mean the NFL,
of all these sports ownership groups, it is a good
(42:22):
old boys club and they wouldn't you know, they wouldn't
even consider bringing in probably a Mark Cuban like the
NBA did. They wouldn't even consider it. And it's just
it's just a place where Jerry and Bob Kraft and
Stan Kronke. There's a handful of owners who are highly
influential and Jerry knows it. But the problem being is,
(42:46):
you know, once you get close to the first number
in your age being eight, it's different. I mean, Vin
Scully was broadcasting, you know, in his seventies. You can
Al michaels is seventy seven. There's a big gap. You
start getting, you start getting seventy nine, eighty eighty one.
Your faculties aren't the same, you know. And it's like,
and Jerry's lived hard, Jerry's lived at big life. Al
(43:10):
Jerry parties today and Al lived a big life, And
so it's not a shot. It's just I think about
this stuff all the time, is that I love to
age gracefully and I probably won't. So I just I
think it's one of those things where it's become the
Lakers a little bit. It's it's new ownership and it
will never happen. Would not be terrible, like the Bus
(43:33):
Family got you know, Kobe's agent, Rob Polinka is the
GM and there's all sorts of friends and family cowboys.
Just they're not the Bears. They're not totally dysfunctional in
ownership with like eleven kids, but they're not. They're closer
to the Bears than they are to.
Speaker 2 (43:48):
The rams right now, I agree, they just have more money, right, yeah,
I think you bring up Robert Kraft. Obviously it ended
really poorly with Bill, but for those twenty years became
a star. But Bill got to be the face, you know,
the face of the team, at the forefront of making
the decisions, and he buried the responsibility good or bad,
(44:10):
and he went out right. Robert joined him when it
was good, but if it was bad, Bill took the arrows.
Al Davis even in his prime and Jerry in his
prime could not have gone twenty years with Bill Belichick
getting all the credit of the good times. I mean
they prove that. I mean, I would get rid of
coaches in his prime when they were winning Super Bowls,
and obviously Jerry, I mean had that early on. It
(44:30):
was like Jimmy, you're out, you know. And again that
was when Jerry was sharp as attack. I mean, probably
one of the more impressive business guys. And this is
the mid nineties. So your personality does it only amplify
and get more aggressive the more money you have, Like
you said, now he's in his eighties. I just think
it could get really, really weird because if the team's
(44:52):
not good, he's still calling into that radio show every
Tuesday morning. He's still in the locker room, which doesn't
happen anywhere else. I mean it, Dak and these guys
are so numb to it because it's all they've ever seen.
If you just put like a took some dude from
like the Rams, you know, like a just take like
a Pooka and Nakula or just any other team and
just put them on the Cowboys for like a week
(45:13):
after the game in the locker room and the owner
is over there. Like usually the press goes to the quarterback,
they go to the guy that made the big play.
Jerry walks in that room and he's ready to hold court.
They all go because his quote's gonna make the headlines.
And unlike those guys that might not say anything, you know,
Jerry will Yeah.
Speaker 1 (45:37):
So you and I had a long discussion watching the
Jets and the Packers last night over at Tito's and
and we we probably spent an hour just you and
I before my crazy in laws came over. And one
of the things you talked me into is I've said
all off season, I don't know what the heck to
do with the Packers. They won double digit games last
(45:59):
year and Jordan was hurt early and didn't play great late. Okay,
but I was thinking about this when I woke up
and you went to the airport, and I was thinking
about this. I'm like Detroit's coordinators their replacements really worry me.
Chicago's offense in Kleb really worries me. JJ McCarthy, I
(46:19):
don't think there's any question that Viking staff is just
trying to build his confidence up. The whole camp is
about his confidence. I think I'm gonna take even though
the Packers got boat raced by the Jets, I think
I'm gonna end up before we get to JJ McCarthy.
I think I'm gonna take the Packers. They've had a
quiet offseason, and I think that stuff matters. I mean,
(46:41):
you've got Alliance team that will not be as good
because they lost two of the best coordinators, whether Aaron
Glenn and Ben Johnson hit his coaches, they were great coordinators.
You know, Aaron Glenn had a top ten defense. They
had like four starters out. I mean insisting, you know,
in an offensive division, and I just I think you've
talked me into it is And McIntyre has been on
(47:01):
this too quiet good coach Jordan loves healthy. Green Bay
is probably gonna win that division.
Speaker 2 (47:12):
You wrote the Lions off after the Hall of Fame game.
I'm out I wouldn't go that far though. The theme
of losing those two guys, I mean the Hall of
Fame game, I get. I mean, they did look bad,
but I do think losing those two guys what Aaron
Glenn brought to the table in terms of emotion, let
(47:32):
alone the scheme. I mean, he was kind of the
heartbeat of that team, and then bend the brains. It's
just how do you replace that? Right? I mean, it's
like any industry, any business, losing two employees at that
high level, Even if you hit on one of the two,
there's gonna be a you know, probably a dramatic drop
off on one of them. And if it's the offense,
that would be a big blow to Detroit because offensively
(47:52):
that's really where they separated. You know, I do think
Minnesota has a better roster. Removed the quarterback, and you
could argue, beside the Eagles in the NFC, no one's
even on their level. You could argue minus the quarterbacks,
they're right there with the Eagles. I mean, they got
a pretty special roster, but I just think there's something
about the Packers. I mean, we're talking about it. I
(48:13):
didn't even quite realize. You know, you live by the
lake and then you kind of pull the map and
you see the Green Bays not really that far, and
then I realized, I get why the Bears are so
jealous of the Packers. You got the big one of
the great cities in the world, and you got this
little town up the road. But they've been kicking the Bears.
Speaker 1 (48:30):
Ass for thirty years.
Speaker 2 (48:32):
And now they're on their third quarterback. It's one thing,
it's like, okay, farm, I get it, we'll tip our
hat to you. Then you get Rogers, like we're really
gonna take this for fifteen years. And now you get
Jordan Love who he had a couple throws yesterday. His
talent is immense, James there. Their offensive line is always good,
they're high on this young quarterback. Their defense is now good.
They're just that program that they're never going to be sexy,
(48:53):
like you know, like they're Ohio State football or you
know what Andy Reid was early with Mahomes and that
we don't talk about them like that post Rogers. But
last year they won eleven games and they won one
in the Division one one and their quarterback got hurt
week one, which had to throw them off a little bit,
even though they won the next couple weeks with Malik Willis,
which to me shows their coach is pretty good. You know,
(49:16):
their coach is pretty he's unlike Kevin O'Connell, like he's
won some playoff games. So I won the gambling values there.
I mean, you're getting them like two and a half
to one to win the division. Google how many times
they've won the division the last thirty years. A lot.
They just do it a lot. I do think there's
some internal pressure now that they got that Murphy guy.
Their president who kind of works as the owner is
now Carmen Policy's son, Ed's in charge. So I mean
(49:39):
this is a very like there's some of the line
for Goodikins and Lafleur in a weird way because they
have a new boss. I just think they're flying under
the radar.
Speaker 1 (49:49):
You know, and there's a lot of different ways to win.
In Philadelphia. We don't think they have the best head coach,
but they have the best roster. In Los Angeles, we
don't think they have the best roster, but we love
the quarterback in the coach. You know, green Bay, it's continuity.
The division's got all sorts of turmoil, losing coordinators, Chicago
can't get the quarterback, right, is JJ McCarthy right? It
(50:12):
just continuity is it's I don't even know the comp IBM.
Like Microsoft, Microsoft's been great. It missed on the phone.
There have been moments, but you look up and you're like, yeah, Ai,
Microsoft's good. Green Bay has been really ahead of the
curve on quarterbacks. They draft them early. They never draft
(50:32):
offensive lineman in the first round. I couldn't tell you
the best offensive line. And you and I talked about
this these There was a book written years ago called
maybe thirty years ago, called The Millionaire next Door, and
it was about how many people live next door to you.
They pay off their home, they have a four to
oh one K, They live under their means, and they're
millionaires and they don't have huge salaries. And that really
(50:53):
is the Packers. They're missing a barstool leg, right. They
don't have that free agent leg. Whereas a Philadelphia, Miami,
A certain places there are people want to go play
in La Devonte Adams didn't take didn't have to arm
wrestle them to get them to Sean McVay and Stafford
in the rams, right, like Green Bay didn't have that.
So they have to draft and develop, like the school
(51:14):
teachers have to be smart with their money to become
millionaires in Green Bay when you're forced. I don't think
it's a coincidence that both New York teams are a
bit of a mess. Why because they have great game
day revenue, they got great local radio, TV advertising revenue,
and they take big swings and they don't do their homework.
Green Bay does their homework. And I just I look
(51:37):
at this organization and their continuity, their intelligence, their development.
They almost develop like a really good college program.
Speaker 2 (51:45):
They need to develop in my comp You know a
lot of times in college football, the underling goes and
as a coach somewhere else, right like Sark's not at Alabama, right,
Lane Lane Kiffin's not at Alabama. Typically these guys go off.
I mean, honestly, when they tried to replace p Carroll
didn't go well. But in basketball, think about when Roy
Williams replaced Steen Smith finally because he just knew what
(52:06):
worked in that program, or John Schier now with coach
k like, there is a blueprint in that program that
they know works. Gutikins was taught from Ted Thompson, who
was taught from run Wolf Like there is a consistent
theme in that organization that has never changed, which is
pretty rare when you have turnover like the Eagles. How
he's been there for decades, right, so it's him. But
(52:29):
when you look at like the Ravens, they went from
Ozzie to DaCosta, so they have thought the you know,
a very similar path. You'd even go from Kevin Colbert
to Omar Kahan now with the Steelers, like he's he
was taught under that. It's pretty rare because a lot
of times you fire someone, you bring in the best
teams executive, right, That is not what is happening with
(52:50):
the Backers for decades, So there is connections. Like Gutikins
can tell stories that Ron Wolfe told Ted Thompson about
what they did in nineteen ninety four with Reggie White
at Forever trading for this guy or cutting this guy,
and that is pretty rare. Like John Lynch can't tell
stories of stuff that happened with Bill Walsh like the
personnel moves in nineteen eighty nine were less sneed with
(53:12):
Mike Martz and Dick for Meal back in nineteen ninety nine.
It's just that's pretty rare, and I think that's the
only reason that this little town a couple hours above
you sitting right now, dominates these big cities. The volume
The volume. The rivalry is the marching bands, the upsets.
All right, folks, college Football's here.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
It's back.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
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Speaker 1 (01:19):
Something popped in my head the other day. PFF had
Sean Payton as the second best coach in the league,
and I actually, and I'm not saying this because I
get along with Sean, we really hit it off. But
I'm also saying this, I don't think he's quite getting
enough credit for what he's done in Denver. And some
of that is Harbaugh soaks up so much of the
glare because he's such a character, and then there's the
(01:41):
reigning dynasty in the division, and now you've got Pete
Carrolyn Chip Kelly. So Denver sort of gets lost from
a publicity standpoint. But John think about this. So he
goes into an organization and the culture's broken, the quarterback's
a mess, and there's impending new ownership. So he goes
in the first year, I think they are one game,
(02:03):
they win three more games. He makes Russ functional. He
cleans up the offensive line from like twenty first to
like seventh. It just got ranked second by the way
PFF's grade starting the season. It's now second. Last year
with Herbert Mahomes, Harbaugh Reid, he has a rookie quarterback.
(02:27):
They end up leading the league in sacks. It is
now a bonafie top offensive line with really one Courtland Sutton,
one dependable weapon. And I mean, I just I looked
at them last year and I thought I thought they'd
be good with Bonnix. I don't think we understand it.
(02:48):
You start looking at that division and in almost every
other division with the number two oher line Sean Payton,
a very capable young quarterback leader in sacks, they get
green Law and Hufunga. I'm like, are we I think
what he's done there the last year to make the
playoffs with eighty nine million dollars, I think it was
in dead cap money? Are we undervalue in use? Are
(03:09):
the glare with everybody else? What he's done in Denver.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
I've watched a couple of his press conferences during OTAs.
He thinks his team's pretty good. He thinks his team's
pretty good because defensively they got a chance to dominate.
And if you have a dominant defense with an offensive
coach who's proven, like, how are your floor is so high?
I mean your floor is immediately like ten wins. And
someone sent me this DM recently. They said, you know,
(03:34):
everyone talks about Jayden and I understand why, but look
at pull up the stats for bow Knicks and jay
I think we talked about bow Knicks like he threw
eighteen touchdowns. He threw twenty nine touchdowns. Now some of
these are scheme touchdowns, but his numbers, you know, you know,
the accuracy is something that I think he has to
work on. Now the weapons have the running back in
the draft, but I do think that you know, is
(03:58):
he a guy Undershawn Peyton if he just becomes like
Sean Payton's version, even if he's not Drew Brees or whatever,
but just like a Jared Goff a brock Party, like
a consistent artor for they're gonna be really good for
a while. And I know last week you had the
Chargers for they could be to win the division. It's
not just not inconceivable, right because he's a he's a
unique second year player. How old is he twenty five
(04:20):
years old, like he's played a lot of.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
Football, and he I think unless you watch him, he
didn't move a lot at Oregon. Sean lets him move
and he can. I mean, he's an athlete that that
dude is ripped. When I went to the Oregon Utah game,
I saw him play the Huskies, but I was up,
so I bought really good seats for Oregon Utah. I
wanted to be behind Oregon's bench. And he's on the
(04:43):
sideline and he is cut and you just watch him
in these NFL games and I always kind of look
at it. When a quarterback runs, how's the outside linebacker,
how's the outside linebacker stack up? He runs past him.
I mean he when he gets ahead of steam going,
he can move past guys. And I remember when Johnny
Manziel broke into the league. He went for a couple
(05:04):
of runs in the defensive end chased him out and
You're like, yeah, that's not gonna work. That's just not
gonna work when that guy is chasing it down. But
I Sean is one of those no nonsense guys, and
he's a little gruff. I remember when he said something
in Aaron Rodgers. You know, when he said something about
NTT Hackett. And again, I don't think the media always
gives Sean quite a fair shake because he's pretty rough
(05:27):
and pretty direct. But that funga pickup. You know, he's
been banged up. He's an elite safety well to.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
Me, I mean two years ago as well pro in
green Law. I mean a lot of question marks with
his with his health. But if one of those two
guys is a full time player, let alone both of them,
the violence of their defense will be it'll be one
of the, if not the hardest hitting defense in the league.
I mean, they already were right up there last year.
And you know, we talk a lot about this when
(05:57):
it comes to quarterback, especially young quarterbacks. Is the intangibles,
the maturity, the focus, the drive. You know, bo Nicks
and Jaden gets a lot of credit for that, rightfully,
so Bo bo Nick should be right there too in
terms of, you know, the way they spoke about him
at Oregon, his maturity, also what he's been through a
lot like Jayden, like and I would say unlike Jayden,
(06:19):
it's easier to fail at Arizona State. No one really cares.
Team hasn't Mado. You struggle at Auburn when you're in
his situation like that was a that was like an NFL,
the way they're covered, the amount of people that care. Uh,
the spotlight that was on him. Remember he was I
think his first start was against Justin Herbert. Remember that
organ Vern game.
Speaker 1 (06:38):
Along line well in the corner. He played a big
throw as a freshman into the corner of the end
zone to win it.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
And then his career just kind of unraveled as their
program did. And then he went to Oregon. You've seen
them in two stable environments, Oregon and Denver, and he's thrived.
So it's safe to say, like, yeah, pretty impressive guy.
I would bet on bow Knicks because Sean Payton clearly
not going anywhere. I mean, they are a twelve thirteen
win season away from Sean Payton then getting a huge
contract extension, right he was given five years ninety million.
(07:08):
That they have a good year and the trajectory of
this franchise and listen, I would have assumed when Sean
got the job that General Patton, the GM would have
been fired. And John kind of feels like he's worked
pretty seamlessly. They worked together. Maybe Sean's realized I got
to pick my battles, like, let's just get along, and
it feels like they got a pretty stable organization. That's
(07:29):
the thing with Pete Carroll and the Raiders, like Jim
Harbaughs kind of matured. Sean Payton's at a different stage
in his life obviously. You know, Andy's the most human
feature on the scene. It's a really really difficult division
with these guys like that have really figured it out,
that have cracked the code of personality. What it takes,
the energy that it takes, what they're looking they know
exactly what they're looking for.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
It's pretty scary. Yeah, No, I think I think, actually
Patton's a pretty good GM. I thought I didn't think
the problem was I thought the problem was Hacke It listen,
it happens. I mean, Bob Kraft is a good owner.
He hired draw on Mayo and he just wasn't ready
for it. Like it happens. It's hard to hire coaches.
(08:10):
I mean, they took a huge swing on Sean McVay
in Los Angeles. They wouldn't let him out of the building.
That was a but you know, at one point Lane
Kiffin was in the NFL and was a pretty good coach.
The dysfunction of the Raiders ended that.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
But and they tired Packet right because they thought Rogers
was gonna come, which I would have done two at
the time. I mean that was yeah.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
Listen, Josh McDaniels was a guest on my show and
we kept in touch. He's a really, really sharp guy.
It just hasn't worked as head coach. He's a tremendous coordinator.
So whatever the magic is, I don't know exactly what
it is. Some guys work some dope. I wanted to
so the you know, the overs and unders are coming out,
(08:53):
so I want us to give the audience have some fun. Here.
Two overs and two unders, and I'll start this. All
the odds are provided by DraftKings sportsbook. So I'm going
to give you an under, then you give me an under,
and I'll give you another under, and then we'll do
two overs. So my first under is the Chiefs at
(09:15):
eleven and a half. Okay, Joe Tooney was by far
and away the most had the most dexterity of any
of their offensive linemen. He's gone. They are now crossing
their fingers on a backup left tackle from San Francisco.
They were eleven and zher in one possession games right,
(09:37):
and now the division is much better. The coaching and
the quarterback play Bo Nixon, year two, Geno Smith, if
they get a running back in the first round. Geno
Smith has a one zero six passer rating in Seattle
on play action passing, like if you give him a
run game, Gino's very good on third and two. Right,
(10:00):
He's very good with play action passing second in five,
third and two, third and three. So I don't think
I would take the under. Now, maybe they just go
eleven and six, but I think the division is going
to be improved. The quarterback play between Gino second year
Bo again. I thought last year there were offensive line
(10:23):
injuries with the Chargers. My guess is they'll be healthier. Okay,
what say you give me an give me an under?
Speaker 2 (10:30):
Did you say ten and a half On that number.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
It's eleven and a half. DraftKings has the Chiefs at
eleven and a half. I would bet the under got you.
They have won over twelve games. I think every year Mahomes.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
Has started beside one. Yeah, I hear you. It's you can
have a good year. I mean they won a super Bowl,
win a eleven, I would say an under I like
I do think the forty nine ers who are to
the Rams, won that division and were really good and honestly,
(11:01):
I mean a couple of plays away from potentially beating
the Eagles, and who knows, they might end up in
the Super Bowl and win it. They wanted a ten
and seven, right, So, and they're a team going through
a lot of transition. So the forty nine ers won
six games, though they were in a lot of them.
They kind of melted at the end in a lot
of them. So I actually think I think a lot
of people are gonna think they're gonna win like six
(11:22):
or seven games. I think they're gonna be better than
people think. But once you start getting over ten, like
ten and a half, like you could win nine or
ten games, be that seven seed, hell, compete to win
the division and have a good season. So I think
the days, you know, definitely this season that's gonna be
very dependent on young rookie players.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
Yeah, they have twelve draft picks.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
Yeah, I mean that's we've seen the Rams the last
couple of years. I don't know exactly, They've been a
fantastic team. At the end of the year, They're not
winning twelve games, so I think the Niners probably more
likely to win nine or ten games. I also think
that division is just gonna be you know, the Cardinals
are just a tough game every time.
Speaker 1 (12:00):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Obviously the Rams are good in Seattle, going through a
little bit of a transitional period, but they're head coach.
I think they're a pretty well run operation.
Speaker 1 (12:10):
Yeah, Listen, they're one of my unders too at ten
and a half. Yeah, they tried to get green Law
back from Denver. They did not want to lose Hufunga. Okay,
but those were two big defensive losses. And let's be honest, John,
the Bosa's get hurt when Boso was off the field.
Last year, they were not a very good defense. They
(12:31):
were really inconsistent. So now who Fungus gone, green Law's gone,
Bosa will miss a stretch and it's not a great draft.
So I don't think there's an impact player defensively. Maybe
if they got like Will Johnson at corner from Michigan,
I think that would be a really really you'd have
to be happy with that. But yeah, I think I
(12:52):
have San Francisco as an under. So I have Kansas
City you have San Francisco, I have San Francisco. Give
me another under I would say.
Speaker 2 (13:01):
I think there's a chance Miami is like the one
of the worst teams in the NFL. Like it would
not shock me if you tell me, as you and
I are sitting here doing a free draft a couple
of weeks, Miami's in the mix. Maybe they don't have
the number one overall pick, but I could see him
being like the giants of the Patriots, drafting three or four.
It would not shock me to see them struggle to
(13:21):
win four or five games. I think they're going to
be terrible. I thought that last year, and they just
obviously when two was on the field, they're more functional.
It would not surprise me at all if this Tyreek
situation doesn't go away and he ends up playing for
another team this year. I don't know if that trade
would happen during the draft. I know they've pushed back
against that, maybe at the end of training camp. But
(13:43):
I just expect Miami to implode. I really do. I mean,
I don't really like the Jets that much either, but
like even last year, the Jets do have a lot
of good players. Oh absolutely, I just don't think Miami
has that many good players and they are one concussion
away from all of a sudden, Zach Wilson's are starting quarterback.
Speaker 1 (14:01):
Okay, I'll give you an over. I think Brian Callahan's
a good coach. I think Will Levis is a really,
really bad NFL quarterback. I don't think he was a
great college quarterback.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
And so I look at.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
The over under on Tennessee and you know it's five
and a half. Some have had it at six and
a half. I think they clear that bar easily. First
of all, cam Ward's a playmaker, and nobody's got real
film on him. He didn't do a lot of straight
(14:39):
pocket stuff in college. It was a lot of backyard stuff.
And I think the league will take a while. And
they did this with Jaden Daniels. It took a while
to decode him. People were bo nicks, You're not quite
sure what he is. It's a weak division. The Jags
could be bad, the Colts would be bad. Houston should
be pretty good, not great. I think I'm going to
(15:02):
take the Titans over. I think it's a pretty week schedule.
I think cam Ward is one of the only players
in the draft that can equal wins. I think people
think Callahan's a pretty good coach. And Callahan didn't just
lack trust in will Levis. If you listened to his
postgame comments after losses. He lost them three games straight out,
(15:23):
and you watched his body language, he almost resented that
will Levis was getting in the way of wins, and
so I Titans to me earn over.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Yeah, I don't think people. You know, we talk a
lot about the Browns because of Watson, because Deshaun Watson's
quarterback play by a month and no one was watching
the Titans. Their quarterback play was like historically poor, I
mean the turnovers and sacks he was taking. It was.
Their defense was actually pretty good. Yes, And like any
team with a pretty good defense, when your offense is
that crappy by the time you get to like mid November,
(15:57):
they can't maintain that level of play because they're on
the field so much. So if their offense is just solid,
I'm with you. I mean, he's got his dad there
coaching offensive line. Massive upgrade just based on talent alone.
I would say this, if you look at Vrabel, like
the linebacker version of Harbaugh, you know, wants to play defense,
wants to run the ball. Former players, just guys that
(16:19):
just win. I think the Patriots, we're right up there
with the Bears. Is one of the worst coach teams
you will ever see. Last season, why couldn't they go
nine to eight this year? If you go the Jets,
the Jets are going to be awful. I think the
Dolphins are going to be worse. Ye listen to Bills,
who cares that even if they sweep you. I could
see the Patriots winning eight or nine games.
Speaker 1 (16:41):
Listen, they were seven and a half DraftKings. They are
now up to eight and a half. So the Sharps,
it looks like we're all over the Patriots. So New
England was one of my overs. And I said the
other day on the air, I said, I think Vrabel
from girod Mayo is worth three points. I think Drake
may is worth another point based on sophomore season. And
(17:04):
I think it's reasonable assume one hundred and ninety million
in free agency and eight to nine draft picks is
worth one and a half to two points. So if
they're just five and a half points to six points better,
and again you're talking about between the draft and free agency,
like eight to nine new starters for sure, and a
couple of high end starters. You're talking about Drake May
(17:25):
potentially with a Travis Hunter. You're talking about the worst
coach team to probably one of the seven to eight
to nine best coach teams. That's five and a half
to six points. They were three and six in one
possession games with a rookie quarterback. If that's just six
and three, you don't have to go nine to zero.
This is an eight to nine win team. And again
the Jets a bit lost. I agree with you, Miami's
(17:46):
a mess, So I think New England's in play.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
I would say the other team would be speaking of
Harbaugh the Chargers. You know, last year, I just didn't
pull the trigger and he did exactly what he of course, yeah, yeah,
the five seed. Well this year it's nine and a half,
and everyone always gets off the scent with them during
like free agency, Jim is not going to trade for
DK Metcalf and give one hundred and fifty million dollars. No,
(18:11):
he didn't do it last year. He's not going to
do it this year. He won't do it next year.
You know what he will do though, in like the
second round, all of a sudden, he will draft his
starting tight end for the next seven years and in
the third round find a defensive tackle that everyone's going,
this guy's not that sexy who will just be a
starter for him for a long time. Then you watch
the season and you just go, God. Their team is
just physical and good. He has a really talented quarterback.
(18:32):
Why couldn't they win twelve games? I mean, they're over
under right now is nine and a half. I think
they are a lock. I mean Jim Harbaugh is now
coach in the NFL five years and made the playoffs
in four of them. So I don't know if they
can overtake the Chiefs, but it wouldn't shock me if
it gets a little closer. And don't let free agency
fool you. He's never gonna play in swimming that into
(18:54):
the pool. They are never going to do that. But
you know, you've talked about this huge advantage for Jim.
All these kids coming in the draft. He's recruited them all,
especially the good ones, so he's gonna know these guys.
It's going to be a huge point of difference for him.
I would expect them to have a good draft. His
GM I think is pretty good. I mean, look at
last year, it's like, how did they pass on Malik Davers?
(19:15):
I don't know. They just got their starting tackle for
the next decade. So I think the Chargers they ruled
me is the wrong word. I just didn't have the
Kahonas just because I was like, I don't know if
their roster is quite good enough. They're not gonna have
great ride receivers. He typically never does, and he always wins.
He won a national championship, he went to a Super Bowl,
(19:35):
Like he's not exactly gonna have Jerry Rice in his prime,
and it's gonna work out just fine.
Speaker 1 (19:47):
So I saw something. So ESPN did a survey of executives, coaches, scouts,
and it came out their top ten quarterbacks. And I
was on the plane reading this today and I thought,
that's about as close is any top ten quarterback list
I've ever seen. It Goes Mahomes, Alan Burrow, Lamar Jaden Stafford,
(20:10):
Herbert Goff. I've always thought golf because he's not dynamic,
he's not fun to root for. The guy who was
a number one pick out of Cow he got to
a Super Bowl. I've seen him out do Mahomes in
big games. He's good. Then they go Hurts nine and
Baker ten. And I thought people, when I say this,
that's about as good a list as I've seen. People
would say, oh, what about Baker. Well, I got Baker
(20:31):
if I did a list closer to ten than fifteen.
Now I think over after last year, I think I
kind of scratched down a list on the plane that
I had him at like twelve. But I'm not bothered
at all that Baker. I think Baker and Darnold are
both in that ten to eleven twelve space. I'm totally
comfortable with both.
Speaker 2 (20:47):
I'd say Baker now is two straight years and he
has that second year in Cleveland, and just looking at
him on the golf course since been talked about, he's
definitely lost weight. He looks fantastic, and there is an element,
there's a farving element if you remember when Dorsey took
him number one. Overall the intangible kind of the I
would say this though, for what makes Jalen kind of unique?
(21:08):
And the arguments over Jalen are such a waste of time.
Like he won literally won the Super Bowl Super Bowl MVP,
and I looked at his contract by the end of
like twenty twenty seven, he will accumulated two hundred million
dollars playing football on the field. I'm sure he's making money.
He won, like we can argue till we're blue in
the face once he won the Super Bowl, Like he's
(21:28):
got an element that Goff. I mean, hell, lamar, Josh Allen,
some of these guys are still chasing. I think the
top four. You know, Mahomes hasn't played as well in
the regular season as those other three guys the last
couple of years, but we have full faith in him
and the biggest moments to get it done, and he has.
The top four is just set. If you want to
argue Burrow second, Josh Allen second, I don't care. But
(21:49):
like Mahomes is won, then you can argue the ranking
of the next three. I think what makes Stafford unique
if all the teams were equal, like everyone have the
same team in a one game situation, in a month situation,
he could do anyone and go to toe to toe
with anybody where Jared Goff, if I told you your
offensive line had a lot of question marks, you would
(22:09):
like a Jalen Hurts even Baker more than golf. Yeah,
I mean he can't move. He's on the team with
the best offensive line in the league, so it's you know,
he benefits from that. And that's where I think, you know,
Jayden Daniels, I would have had c J. Strouds like
the fifth or sixth best quarterback last year, and if
you an honorable mention in that thing.
Speaker 1 (22:27):
Yeah, so I thought I may have CJ. Stroud ten
and Baker eleven ish that felt about right. I like Kyler.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
I still like.
Speaker 1 (22:34):
Kyler Murray, so I'm in the minority here. I think
he's elusive, and I think he throws a great ball, But.
Speaker 2 (22:39):
I think CJ's story kind of speaks to Jayden Daniels.
I would say Jaden as a rookie, it's not apples dapples,
but was better than CJ. Just the eye test, you know, numbers. Yes,
you we could argue, but just Jaden is about as
good as it gets. But they did get to kind
of fly under the radar most of the season until
the playoffs. It's you know what makes Brady Peyton, Tiger Woods,
(23:04):
Aaron Judge, whoever great players is every single year, every
single game Aaron Donald for decade, everyone circled him all
week long, and he's still dominated Reggie White, Lawrence Taylor.
It's like, you know, Patrick mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen
have been keeping defensive coordinators up at night for a
long time and they still kick ass. Same with Joe
Burrow last year. Right, you know, Jayden Daniels, this is good.
(23:26):
Everyone's gonna take them seriously. So why I got a
lot of respect for Dan Campbell in the Lions, Like
early on, it's like, okay, you got to the last
couple of years, like everyone has been approaching them like
one of the best teams in the league, and they've
answered the bell. Same with Jared you know, we'll see
Jayden Daniels like no one is sleeping on you this year.
That's from the shittiest team to when you're playing the
pack with the Vikings. That's hard. You know.
Speaker 1 (23:47):
Well, even Baseball figured it out with analytics, is that
they don't want to starter facing a batter for the
third time, right, So you go through the order twice
and then by the time you're gonna face So what
they're telling you even started pictures even aces they want
to they want you out of there. But the third
time because a guy after a third Groove on you
gets a vibe because a lot of pictures get better.
(24:08):
You know Verlander and Waynwright in their prime. I thought
Nolan Ryan was better. Fifth Inning on. Can you imagine
pulling Nolan out with a one hitter in the sixth?
You do a Robin Ventura on you. But the reality
is there is truth to what you're saying. Is it
is very hard in the middle of the marathon, when
you're on the treadmill to break down Jadeen Daniels over
(24:30):
the course of two days on a couch in an
office sleeping and say this is this is the solution.
This is the kryptonite. When you give guys an off
seats and these defensive coordinators they find play. They go
through all the analytics and find out he doesn't see
to his right as well as his left. He's more accurate.
So I do think he was miraculous. But I'll also
(24:52):
make this argument, if I told you you combine Lamar
Jackson and Joe Burrow, that's what I thought Jaden Daniels was.
I thought he was. I mean, Burrow to me is
even better than Mahomes. If you told me two minute
drill a minute fifty left, no timeouts left and protection
(25:14):
is okay. I think Burrow's as good as anybody I've
ever seen in the last ten years. Now, Mahomes gets
all the credit because you give.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
Him Chase and Higgins. Mahomes numbers look a lot different, right.
Speaker 1 (25:24):
You're right, you're right, that's that's fair. But I think
Burrow's ability on third down, third and seven, sitting upon little, tiny,
weird windows, You're like, what in the hell? And I
thought Jaden had that mixed with about eighty five percent
to eighty percent of Lamar Jackson. So I think I
thought Andrew Luck was the best rookie quarterback I've ever
(25:44):
seen with bad teammates, I thought Jayden' surpassed him. He
didn't make the mistakes of Luck. So my take is,
even if he pulls back fifteen percent John, if you
start looking at his third and fourth down numbers last year,
fourth quarter numbers, they are Brady in his prime.
Speaker 2 (26:01):
I've been a lot of people, especially the Lamar defenders,
if you just look at the number, you're like, how
the hell do you have him forth? But if you
read the quotes, the executives and the coaches are very
complimentary of Lamar and I agree his passing, the progress
he's made from when he first won that MVP to
the version he's been these last couple of years in
the rate, he's an elite player now and he's a
fantastic passer, at least in the regular season. And he
(26:22):
wasn't that second half of that Bill's game. It just
Mark Andrews had a couple drops. Jayden is already that immediately,
like he's a dominant passer immediately. Now, if you tell
me he this year he throws thirty eight touchdowns and
ten picks, like he's just on the crash course to
be one of the great players of all time. I mean,
if he just answered, because I thought that about CJ
last year's I got he just games easy to him,
(26:44):
and it gets hard. You know, offensive line wasn't quite
as good the offensive coordinator. That's the thing with Cliff seems
like a great guy, and I know everyone in the
league loves him, but I've seen his offense over the
course of time get figured out a little bit. Now
I like Jayden more than I do Kyler, and it
feels like, you know, that version of Kyler that he
dealt with the maturity was a major question mark, not
a question mark with Jayden, but I do think it's
(27:06):
difficult when everyone's gunning for you like you're an all
pro immediately, you know. And it's just that's not how
they were treated last year on a weekly basis, and
they are gonna get the treatment. I think when you
played the Washington Commanders this year, you're not approaching the
game that much different than when you're playing the Eagles,
like this is a twelve thirteen win team they plan
on they can win Super Bowl, like fucking we are
(27:26):
all in all. You know. Belichick used to go on
these long like diatribes when he played like a one
and eleven Miami team. It's like Bill, remember Julian got
mad at me for the Sky. It's like Julian not
Most people can't take these awful teams seriously, but Bill could.
But everyone can. And this is what Bill and Saban
was great at this too, is that they really can
kind of convince you. You don't need to convince when
(27:47):
you're playing the ten and one Baltimore Ravens or when
you're playing the peak Alabama team in your Georgia, right,
it's the team you don't need a new Rockney speech,
You're not gonna need that when you're playing Washington and
for the last decade, if you're a seventh year player
on the Cowboys or the Eagles, like you got a
cruise through the Washington game, that's no longer the case. Now.
It's same thing with the Lions. And that's where I
(28:08):
think Dan Campbell deserves a lot of credit with the
way he's kinda you know, he's a Harboll brother. I
consider him the third Harbboll brother, the way his intensity
is in his focus. And I know you were hard
on him, but I do think he's proven to be
pretty deep good. Right.
Speaker 1 (28:21):
Yeah, No, I was wrong on Dan Campbell. I thought
I thought he was a bit of a meathead. And
my take was and I was just like, I don't
know if he's smart enough. The league's getting really smart,
really clever offensively, and he's a little bit of a raw,
raw guy. But you know what, it's so authentic. He
is so passionate and it's so authentic, and I think
that the players can feel that authenticity and they buy
(28:41):
into him. And I also think he has a great
front office, and I mean it's just there that's a
front office that doesn't go for flash. I mean, prime example,
a couple of years ago, they get, you know, an
inside linebacker, a running back that they're getting the best
players available. This year they went heavy on interior offensive lineman.
You know, it's got a Rams feel to it. And
that's where he came from. Brad Holmes came from Los Angeles.
(29:04):
That they just draft really good players. I mean this year,
you're like, do the Rams need another outside linebacker? They
get a Michigan kid and they're like, he's great on tape,
He's passionate, he plays hard. The Rams have, you know,
no head cases Detroit similarly, like good guys like all
the Lions guys like Amaran Saint Brown and Aiden Hutchinson
(29:25):
and Jared Goff and Penay Sewell, no a holes, like
all really really good guys. So there are people in
this league and I think Dan Campbell has benefited from
that a really good GM. But he deserves credit. You know,
I think in the NFL you ask so much of
players physically. This is why Mike Tomlin his strength, Pete
(29:48):
Carroll strength, but Tomlin, Vrabel and Dan Campbell have a physicality.
They look like they could play right today is that
you ask so much of. I mean, if you have
a bad thumb, you take a series off. In baseball,
it's understood. If you have a bad calf, you take
a road trip off in the NBA. It's understood. In
(30:08):
the NFL. You play hurt and the coach is going
to ask you to play hurt. And so when you
ask athletes or men, I don't care if you're a
fire chief or a police chief, you're putting people in
harm's way. There is a certain personality, an alpha personality
that works. You know, you can't ask the fire chief,
(30:30):
can't ask all those guys to run into buildings. They
got to believe. Those firemen have to believe that guy
deeply cares about them as human beings beyond just co workers.
And I think Dan Campbell sells that. I think it's authentic.
I think he loves his players. I think they feel it.
I think mcveigh's got that quality too, and I think
(30:50):
all the hardballs too. They love their players.
Speaker 2 (30:53):
And listen, I'm not selling Washington because I think Dan
Quinn has characteristics of that as well. Yeah, and a
tough guy. He's defensive lineman in college, defensive coordinators, tough guy.
But he's like a lovable, tough guy and that's very important,
and I think he is. They're pretty lucky because I
think it's going to be intense for them, But they
have a coach who's been through the ringer, right, He's
(31:15):
a guy that's been fired. He's he had to reinvent
his career obviously. I mean what he did last year
spoke for itself. You know. Dable is a good example
of like a couple of years ago, I'm like, this
is the best coaching job I've ever seen. He won
nine games. I think they've got like three total good players,
but he never been a head coach, and as time
went on, it just kind of, you know, unraveled a
little bit and you don't have as much to lean
(31:35):
on dan Quinn. Once you've been a head coach and
he's been fired, you've kind of seen it all, especially
when you've had success and you've worked for the best
in the business. You know, you talk to anyone with
the Chiefs, there's no taking practices off. I mean, they're
not winning these games late in the season and all
these playoff games close because they have a bunch of
guys that just chill Monday through or Wednesday, Thursday, and
(31:57):
Friday in October November, and then start practicing. You are
obligated to practice. I mean it's a tough environment. No
different with the Ravens, no different now with the Chargers.
With the hardball. Like you said, it is hard. I
mean the NFL, you practice way more than you play,
and these coaches they will push you to the limit
of what they are allowed to use with the pads
they're you know, the the CBA doesn't allow him to
(32:18):
have that many physical practices like they used to, but
the Hardball brothers, obviously Andy, Mike, Tomlin, Carroll Shirley will
push it to the limit when it comes to that.
So I just think the same teams are whinning. We
talk about this all the time, are winning over and over.
I mean, look at the top quarterbacks there on the list.
They also benefit from playing I mean Burrows somewhat of
an outlier, but they all play with really well run
(32:40):
or I mean Baker resurrected his career. You know, if
you would have put Baker in like Arizona the last
couple of years, probably doesn't look but he goes to Tampa,
best GM in the league, or one of them. A
bunch of good players, high level guys, and Boom resurrects
his career. He's matured. And the same with Jared Goff.
Jared Goff just talked about you know, when he was traded,
it really rattled them. A couple of years later, gets
(33:01):
another big extension and now he's you know, I would
say he's going to make five or six Pro Bowls
in his time in the NFC or you knows.
Speaker 1 (33:10):
So they're not playing Matt Stafford. Rams apparently dominated the
Cowboys at that practice they had and then they didn't
play Matt Stafford and uh, you know, controlled the Cowboys
when they played in the game. And I have said this,
the Cowboys I think have one of the weaker staffs.
(33:33):
I think the Mica and the Trayvon Diggs noise. These
guys don't. They want new deals. And I mean the
Rams are playing Stetson Bennett like they're not. They're you
know who, by the way, I'm not, I mean like
disappeared came back. I'll throw this up if I said
to you the two bottom teams in the NFL, I
(33:55):
think the Giants are going to be one, mostly because
of their quarterback situation, they're set. I actually like some
of their players. Their schedules brutal. Their schedules absolutely brutal.
They're going to go all and four against probably Washington
and Philadelphia at best. They split with Dallas, but I
think we would both say the Giants with the schedule
in their quarterback situation, it's going to be pretty dire.
(34:16):
We know Cleveland and the Saints could be really bad.
Dallas may not have playoff wins over the last thirty years,
not many of them. Is it possible they are a
three win team? Is it possible?
Speaker 2 (34:31):
I think it's very difficult. That Dak plays a lot
of games. If you tell me Dak plays fifteen sixteen games,
even really shitty, they're probably winning fifteen or sixty or
I mean five or six games. One things Jerry's proven
is they have had guys kind of come out of
nowhere over shown they actually draft pretty well. So they
get some guys now that they.
Speaker 1 (34:49):
Nail their first round picks usually.
Speaker 2 (34:52):
Yeah, and they get some guys in the mid rounds
that just saw some random guy on defense playing safety
that you didn't who's this Deron Bland guy from sax State,
Fresno State, transfer. They've been a pretty good drafting team.
Hard to overcome, you know, a coaching staff if you're right,
they don't have one of the good staffs. I mean,
this guy was not This guy would not have been
a coordinator in the league. Now. Some stuff, you know,
it's it's perception, it's you know, the buzz of your candidacy.
(35:16):
Are you high or you low? That matters in the
NFL or college too. And he was obviously not thought
of like he once was. But that's a fact. He
would not have been a coordinator in the league. You know,
eber Flus people think he's a good defensive coordinator. Well,
they just re hired him because they knew him, you know,
because he was coaching on their staff several years ago.
Kind of a classic Jerry thing, Mike and Parsons, we
have some I mean, Bosa wasn't two years ago, set
(35:38):
out all camp and just wasn't quite the same that season.
You know, even if you're working on your own beside
practice in the weight room with the training staff, it's
not the same as getting the practice rep. So even
if they signed him September first and he plays or
I guess they'd probably need to do a little before
that because they're playing Thursday night football, But the expectation
for him would have to be tempered a little bit.
And they they're depending on a ton of young guys
(36:00):
on the offensive line and that can be very hit
or miss. Yeah, when it hits, it's awesome. We saw
the Chiefs kind of doing that last year too, and
I was like, whoa, you know, well, it can flip
on you quick. So free Fields. I do think they
have an infrastructure of guys that have won, Like even
when Mike had comes back, he's won a lot of games,
Dak Ceedee Lamb, like, they got some solid players. But
I do think it could just be they could be
(36:22):
the last place team in the division if if the
coach is over his head and they're I mean they're
pretty top heavy. I mean, Ceedee Lamb pulls amstream. What
the hell are you gonna do? Ford, Georgia Dickens.
Speaker 1 (36:31):
Yeah, I mean I agree with you, and I was
a little over the top. I coaching is at least
thirty to forty percent of this league. It's a big
part because you know the margins is, you know, the
average game is decided by four to six points, and
I mean, Mike McCarthy's a good coach and struggled in
close games. I mean, they always had too many penalties
with Mike McCarthy. They weren't good situationally. Some of that is,
(36:55):
you know, Dak Cooper rush, Dak got banged up. Dak
now and he's never been a great thrower back now
as a pocket quarterback. So my take is the George
Picken acquisition could end up being you know, we all
looked at it and went, oh boy ooh immature. It
may have saved this team because you can't roll your
(37:17):
coverage over out of just cdee lamb. Because George is
such a hard physical matchup, with his coaching, with his
catching radius. My take is there's always an acquisition, and
we look at it was maybe Xavier McKinney for the
Packers or somebody. When they got him, didn't they get
him with the Giants. You look up, You're like, god, damn,
he's a good football player. I think the George Pickens
(37:38):
thing really ends up kind of at least making the
Cowboys a good watch. I mean, I'll watch the I
want to watch Pickens with Zach, I want.
Speaker 2 (37:48):
To watch him with brun Shott. Nimers. He listening to him.
He wasn't listening to Mike Tomlin's gonna listen to that guy.
I think one Gruden talked about this, Mike Lombardi talked
about this those latter years of Al Davis, and it
was always probably like this. But when it got really
out of control, players knew that when the coordinator the
head coach got mad at him, they would just circumvent
them and go right to the owner's office because they
(38:08):
knew he was in charge if he wanted to of
the plays of who got cut like he was. He
was very involved in football, and he was making all
the decisions. That is not the case with all these teams. Right,
if you play for the Chiefs, you know who the bosses,
Andy Reid, you know you play for the good teams,
you know the boss, the head coach in the GM,
You're not circumventing them to the owner right when that happens.
(38:31):
Remember when Chip Kelly got fired in Philly, and like
some of the players were talking to Jeffrey Lurry, I
was like, that's never a good sign. You know what
you have it? You don't hear that in Philadelphia? They
know Howie and Sirianne, like, if you got an issue,
you go to them, right. And I think that these players,
especially the last couple of years, because Jerry in the
social media world we live in, he's so out front,
(38:54):
he talks so much. They knew Mike McCarthy, who had
won a super Bowl and won a ton of games, like, oh,
to anybody, you're not the boss, right, We'll go to
Jerry if we have an issue, and then and then
I'll just become a public thing and it becomes a
shit show. I think it's hard to overcome that, and
I think they almost did, because, let's face it, like
Mike kind of knows what he's doing. He has some limitations,
(39:14):
and I you know, he's got exposed a couple times
in the playoffs, but he's a pretty good coach. Went
twelve games three years in a row with with Jerry,
which is not easy to do. Is Brian gonna be
able to handle that? Like? What if a what if
Mike Parsons doesn't like what Eberfluis is telling him. Once
he's finally signed, let's go. I mean he's already been
meet with Jerry. He just go to Jerry's office. Hey, Jerry,
we got this is not can you talk to Ebra
Fluis about running this coverage? Because that was a classic thing.
(39:37):
Now Al was more involved, like truly with the scheme.
But if I was a player and I had if
I thought the coach was an idiot, and I had
an owner like Jerry, I'd go right into his office
or give him a call. Jerry Steven, we this is
not going to work for me. And that is a
media implosion. And that might be if this team really
goes down, that could be something that Dak and his
(39:58):
leadership couldn't even over come. That's where it could really
be a problem. And I do think the gap between
a Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer could be like at
the forefront, be like, God, there's a gap between those
two guys. And remember last year Mike that got injured
with the hamstring injury, and it was like, oh, they're fucked,
And then as the season went on, you're like, you know,
(40:19):
that's pretty respectable what they did. The way it's just like, yeah,
a well run operation. There's a big gap. And we
talked about this with Jim Harbaugh. They could be a disaster,
but they're still win eight or nine. Games, not two
or three right like they did with that year with
Brandon Staley when they imploded. Well, the difference between eight
and three or four can be a couple of players
just quitting on you in October and then all of
(40:40):
a sudden you kind of like start questioning yourself and
it can implod. So maybe worst case scenario, you get
weird stuff happening in an injury. Players quit on you
and don't believe on in you. It could be a problem,
and that would be Jerry's fault. Jerry's created this. You know,
culture gets thrown around a lot, but the culture in
Dallas is just Jerry. You just kind of do it.
Jerry wants. Jerry's in control. Mike McCarthy plays out his
(41:03):
last season. That was bizarre the way he does. These players,
I mean, they're just kind of run right now really
unlike all the respectable teams. And you know, for three
years with Mike McCarthy, I know, they bombed down in
the playoff. They were respectable twelve games every year, really
good players. But all the other teams they're competing, the Packers,
the Niners, all the teams they are losing to, they
(41:23):
don't operate anything like that with their owner. But it's
not going to stop as long as you know. It
feels like it's getting worse, doesn't it.
Speaker 1 (41:31):
Yeah. No, I think going back to your initial comment,
I think they they're starting to feel like Al Davis
the last six or seven years there. It's interesting what
power does to men. I think women tend to age
a little bit more gracefully, but wealthy guys, you know,
(41:53):
it could be Sumner Redstone. Is it Summer Redstone or
Sumner Redstone.
Speaker 2 (41:58):
I forget a lot of.
Speaker 1 (42:00):
These old guys. They get a little crazy and they
lack self awareness, and most of them are not like
Warren Buffett. It's like, hey, I could still do this
for three or four more years, but you know it's time.
And I think you see this. I mean the NFL,
of all these sports ownership groups, it is a good
(42:22):
old boys club and they wouldn't you know, they wouldn't
even consider bringing in probably a Mark Cuban like the
NBA did. They wouldn't even consider it. And it's just
it's just a place where Jerry and Bob Kraft and
Stan Kronke. There's a handful of owners who are highly
influential and Jerry knows it. But the problem being is,
(42:46):
you know, once you get close to the first number
in your age being eight, it's different. I mean, Vin
Scully was broadcasting, you know, in his seventies. You can
Al michaels is seventy seven. There's a big gap. You
start getting, you start getting seventy nine, eighty eighty one.
Your faculties aren't the same, you know. And it's like,
and Jerry's lived hard, Jerry's lived at big life. Al
(43:10):
Jerry parties today and Al lived a big life, And
so it's not a shot. It's just I think about
this stuff all the time, is that I love to
age gracefully and I probably won't. So I just I
think it's one of those things where it's become the
Lakers a little bit. It's it's new ownership and it
will never happen. Would not be terrible, like the Bus
(43:33):
Family got you know, Kobe's agent, Rob Polinka is the
GM and there's all sorts of friends and family cowboys.
Just they're not the Bears. They're not totally dysfunctional in
ownership with like eleven kids, but they're not. They're closer
to the Bears than they are to.
Speaker 2 (43:48):
The rams right now, I agree, they just have more money, right, yeah,
I think you bring up Robert Kraft. Obviously it ended
really poorly with Bill, but for those twenty years became
a star. But Bill got to be the face, you know,
the face of the team, at the forefront of making
the decisions, and he buried the responsibility good or bad,
(44:10):
and he went out right. Robert joined him when it
was good, but if it was bad, Bill took the arrows.
Al Davis even in his prime and Jerry in his
prime could not have gone twenty years with Bill Belichick
getting all the credit of the good times. I mean
they prove that. I mean, I would get rid of
coaches in his prime when they were winning Super Bowls,
and obviously Jerry, I mean had that early on. It
(44:30):
was like Jimmy, you're out, you know. And again that
was when Jerry was sharp as attack. I mean, probably
one of the more impressive business guys. And this is
the mid nineties. So your personality does it only amplify
and get more aggressive the more money you have, Like
you said, now he's in his eighties. I just think
it could get really, really weird because if the team's
(44:52):
not good, he's still calling into that radio show every
Tuesday morning. He's still in the locker room, which doesn't
happen anywhere else. I mean it, Dak and these guys
are so numb to it because it's all they've ever seen.
If you just put like a took some dude from
like the Rams, you know, like a just take like
a Pooka and Nakula or just any other team and
just put them on the Cowboys for like a week
(45:13):
after the game in the locker room and the owner
is over there. Like usually the press goes to the quarterback,
they go to the guy that made the big play.
Jerry walks in that room and he's ready to hold court.
They all go because his quote's gonna make the headlines.
And unlike those guys that might not say anything, you know,
Jerry will Yeah.
Speaker 1 (45:37):
So you and I had a long discussion watching the
Jets and the Packers last night over at Tito's and
and we we probably spent an hour just you and
I before my crazy in laws came over. And one
of the things you talked me into is I've said
all off season, I don't know what the heck to
do with the Packers. They won double digit games last
(45:59):
year and Jordan was hurt early and didn't play great late. Okay,
but I was thinking about this when I woke up
and you went to the airport, and I was thinking
about this. I'm like Detroit's coordinators their replacements really worry me.
Chicago's offense in Kleb really worries me. JJ McCarthy, I
(46:19):
don't think there's any question that Viking staff is just
trying to build his confidence up. The whole camp is
about his confidence. I think I'm gonna take even though
the Packers got boat raced by the Jets, I think
I'm gonna end up before we get to JJ McCarthy.
I think I'm gonna take the Packers. They've had a
quiet offseason, and I think that stuff matters. I mean,
(46:41):
you've got Alliance team that will not be as good
because they lost two of the best coordinators, whether Aaron
Glenn and Ben Johnson hit his coaches, they were great coordinators.
You know, Aaron Glenn had a top ten defense. They
had like four starters out. I mean insisting, you know,
in an offensive division, and I just I think you've
talked me into it is And McIntyre has been on
(47:01):
this too quiet good coach Jordan loves healthy. Green Bay
is probably gonna win that division.
Speaker 2 (47:12):
You wrote the Lions off after the Hall of Fame game.
I'm out I wouldn't go that far though. The theme
of losing those two guys, I mean the Hall of
Fame game, I get. I mean, they did look bad,
but I do think losing those two guys what Aaron
Glenn brought to the table in terms of emotion, let
(47:32):
alone the scheme. I mean, he was kind of the
heartbeat of that team, and then bend the brains. It's
just how do you replace that? Right? I mean, it's
like any industry, any business, losing two employees at that
high level, Even if you hit on one of the two,
there's gonna be a you know, probably a dramatic drop
off on one of them. And if it's the offense,
that would be a big blow to Detroit because offensively
(47:52):
that's really where they separated. You know, I do think
Minnesota has a better roster. Removed the quarterback, and you
could argue, beside the Eagles in the NFC, no one's
even on their level. You could argue minus the quarterbacks,
they're right there with the Eagles. I mean, they got
a pretty special roster, but I just think there's something
about the Packers. I mean, we're talking about it. I
(48:13):
didn't even quite realize. You know, you live by the
lake and then you kind of pull the map and
you see the Green Bays not really that far, and
then I realized, I get why the Bears are so
jealous of the Packers. You got the big one of
the great cities in the world, and you got this
little town up the road. But they've been kicking the Bears.
Speaker 1 (48:30):
Ass for thirty years.
Speaker 2 (48:32):
And now they're on their third quarterback. It's one thing,
it's like, okay, farm, I get it, we'll tip our
hat to you. Then you get Rogers, like we're really
gonna take this for fifteen years. And now you get
Jordan Love who he had a couple throws yesterday. His
talent is immense, James there. Their offensive line is always good,
they're high on this young quarterback. Their defense is now good.
They're just that program that they're never going to be sexy,
(48:53):
like you know, like they're Ohio State football or you
know what Andy Reid was early with Mahomes and that
we don't talk about them like that post Rogers. But
last year they won eleven games and they won one
in the Division one one and their quarterback got hurt
week one, which had to throw them off a little bit,
even though they won the next couple weeks with Malik Willis,
which to me shows their coach is pretty good. You know,
(49:16):
their coach is pretty he's unlike Kevin O'Connell, like he's
won some playoff games. So I won the gambling values there.
I mean, you're getting them like two and a half
to one to win the division. Google how many times
they've won the division the last thirty years. A lot.
They just do it a lot. I do think there's
some internal pressure now that they got that Murphy guy.
Their president who kind of works as the owner is
now Carmen Policy's son, Ed's in charge. So I mean
(49:39):
this is a very like there's some of the line
for Goodikins and Lafleur in a weird way because they
have a new boss. I just think they're flying under
the radar.
Speaker 1 (49:49):
You know, and there's a lot of different ways to win.
In Philadelphia. We don't think they have the best head coach,
but they have the best roster. In Los Angeles, we
don't think they have the best roster, but we love
the quarterback in the coach. You know, green Bay, it's continuity.
The division's got all sorts of turmoil, losing coordinators, Chicago
can't get the quarterback, right, is JJ McCarthy right? It
(50:12):
just continuity is it's I don't even know the comp IBM.
Like Microsoft, Microsoft's been great. It missed on the phone.
There have been moments, but you look up and you're like, yeah, Ai,
Microsoft's good. Green Bay has been really ahead of the
curve on quarterbacks. They draft them early. They never draft
(50:32):
offensive lineman in the first round. I couldn't tell you
the best offensive line. And you and I talked about
this these There was a book written years ago called
maybe thirty years ago, called The Millionaire next Door, and
it was about how many people live next door to you.
They pay off their home, they have a four to
oh one K, They live under their means, and they're
millionaires and they don't have huge salaries. And that really
(50:53):
is the Packers. They're missing a barstool leg, right. They
don't have that free agent leg. Whereas a Philadelphia, Miami,
A certain places there are people want to go play
in La Devonte Adams didn't take didn't have to arm
wrestle them to get them to Sean McVay and Stafford
in the rams, right, like Green Bay didn't have that.
So they have to draft and develop, like the school
(51:14):
teachers have to be smart with their money to become
millionaires in Green Bay when you're forced. I don't think
it's a coincidence that both New York teams are a
bit of a mess. Why because they have great game
day revenue, they got great local radio, TV advertising revenue,
and they take big swings and they don't do their homework.
Green Bay does their homework. And I just I look
(51:37):
at this organization and their continuity, their intelligence, their development.
They almost develop like a really good college program.
Speaker 2 (51:45):
They need to develop in my comp You know a
lot of times in college football, the underling goes and
as a coach somewhere else, right like Sark's not at Alabama, right,
Lane Lane Kiffin's not at Alabama. Typically these guys go off.
I mean, honestly, when they tried to replace p Carroll
didn't go well. But in basketball, think about when Roy
Williams replaced Steen Smith finally because he just knew what
(52:06):
worked in that program, or John Schier now with coach
k like, there is a blueprint in that program that
they know works. Gutikins was taught from Ted Thompson, who
was taught from run Wolf Like there is a consistent
theme in that organization that has never changed, which is
pretty rare when you have turnover like the Eagles. How
he's been there for decades, right, so it's him. But
(52:29):
when you look at like the Ravens, they went from
Ozzie to DaCosta, so they have thought the you know,
a very similar path. You'd even go from Kevin Colbert
to Omar Kahan now with the Steelers, like he's he
was taught under that. It's pretty rare because a lot
of times you fire someone, you bring in the best
teams executive, right, That is not what is happening with
(52:50):
the Backers for decades, So there is connections. Like Gutikins
can tell stories that Ron Wolfe told Ted Thompson about
what they did in nineteen ninety four with Reggie White
at Forever trading for this guy or cutting this guy,
and that is pretty rare. Like John Lynch can't tell
stories of stuff that happened with Bill Walsh like the
personnel moves in nineteen eighty nine were less sneed with
(53:12):
Mike Martz and Dick for Meal back in nineteen ninety nine.
It's just that's pretty rare, and I think that's the
only reason that this little town a couple hours above
you sitting right now, dominates these big cities. The volume
Host
Colin Cowherd
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