Colin reacts to the “unwatchable mess” that resulted in a 6-3 win for the Seahawks over the Bears on Thursday Night Football.
He extends his sympathy to Caleb Williams who has obvious talent but can’t overcome the disaster that is the Chicago Bears franchise (3:45). He also argues that the NBA needs to make major changes in order to win back fans in an era of declining ratings (10:15).
Then, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 17 of the NFL slate, plus the College Football Playoff
Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!
#Volume #Herd
22:00- Blowouts in first round of College Football Playoff
24:15 - Broncos vs Bengals
26:30 - Saints vs Raiders
28:00 - Falcons vs Commanders
30:30 - Bills vs Jets
32:45 - Panthers vs Buccaneers
35:00 - Ohio State vs Oregon
41:45 - Cardinals vs Rams
44:45 - Chad’s Biggest Whif/Hit Of The Year
48:15 - Chargers vs Patriots
Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
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(01:13):
I should get overtime pay for staying up tonight and
talking about this awful Seattle six to three went over
the Chicago Bears. You know, first of all, just a
broad comment. Caleb Williams has thrown for over three hundred
yards four times this season. That's more than Patrick Mahomes.
That's remarkable. And tonight he had an interception for the
(01:35):
first time and forever. Nobody could have succeeded with this
team in this season. I mean, they're using a basically
their third different person is sort of assembling the game
plan this year. It's just a circus. It is an
absolute circus. He's still the youngest quarterback in the NFC.
(01:57):
He's got boundless talent. He made a couple of really
nice throws tonight. I mean Gino smith Is, I mean
just a ham and egger. Caleb's got all sorts of talent.
But there's just nothing you can do with this franchise.
There's nothing I like about it. Like even bad franchises.
Let's let's let's take a franchise, you know, like the Jets.
(02:19):
They had Robert Sola for years, an excellent defensive coach.
Joe Douglas whipped on a quarterback in a COVID year,
But that roster is a bunch of Joe Douglas draft picks,
it's very good. He also went and got Davonte Adams
before he got fired, and Deavante and Aaron are connecting.
Take a franchise like the Carolina Panthers. They went out
(02:41):
and got an excellent young offensive coach who looks like
he has turned Bryce Young from a bust to a decent, mobile, athletic,
accurate starter. There's nothing about the Bears outside of Caleb Williams.
I mean, it's I don't trust the ownership. You know,
Kevin Warren, the president, has a reputation is more Paula
Titians and football expert Ryan Poles, you know, I mean, listen,
(03:06):
keep him fine, move off him fine. I don't think
he's done a terrible job last year. Four picks. He
took a punter. That's not what I would have done.
They could have, you know, made more moves, eber flues.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
The staff.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
It's a mess. I mean, it's just nothing that's redeemable
about the franchise outside of Caleb Williams and a couple
of players Montes Sweat, Jalen Johnson, DJ Moore. You know,
they've got a couple of players I like, But everybody
in the NFL's got a couple of players. It's just
nobody could have succeeded here. You know, tonight it was
(03:42):
an unwatchable mess. And all the fears that Kayleb Williams
had privately going to Chicago. I mean I reported this
last year. I got pushedback on it, but people in
his camp were worried this franchise. I mean, look at
Chicago's ports right now, White Sox, Blackhawks, Bears. I don't
have any ability to decipher why not great ownership is
(04:08):
a place to start, but I feel I feel sad
for the kid because and you can see the talent.
I mean you you would have to be trying to
make an argument to say you can't see his talent.
I mean last night or tonight was the first interception
he's had in forever. I think it was like since Halloween.
(04:28):
And that's why this idea that you can just go
out and get some you know, Ben Johnson and he's
going to change the world. You know, that guy's never
been a head coach at the high school level. There
are so many hurdles to overcome in this organization. I
don't think there's a good job right now in the NFL,
(04:49):
I really don't. I don't think any of these jobs
are good. And if Oz Mike Frable, I'd sit it
out for a year because I think next year you
could possibly have the Cowboys, Bengals and Joe Burrow would
be available. You know, there's a couple of opportunities out
there next year. Keep your eye on. If Sean McDermott
does not win in Buffalo, I think Sean McDermott, a
(05:10):
good coach, could be in trouble. So though, those are
really good opportunities, and there's only been three great coaching
opportunities in the last eight years, Green Bay Matt Lafleur,
I think Mike McCarthy and Dallas and getting Justin Herbert
with a Chargers. Those are really high end coaching opportunities.
I wouldn't want the Chicago job, despite Caleb's talent. I
wouldn't want it. That's how bad it is. My other
(05:33):
takeaway in this game, it's funny the number one position
in the NFL over the last twenty years that has
been the biggest bust rate in the first round is
wide receiver, And obviously, you know wide receivers can make
dynamic plays. But the Seahawks have Smith and Jigba first rounder,
DK Metcalf, second rounder, a good tight end, and Noah
(05:56):
Fant excellent running back Charboney who's their second back. But
equality Gino Smith can't play. You're eight, nine, nine and
eight with Gino Smith. That's just what it is, you know,
Roma Dunza, what can you do? They've been better off
going out and getting an available offensive tackle. Instead, they
went in later rounds and got some prospect I think
(06:17):
from Yale, and you know, can he play? We'll see.
You know, you look at the Chargers who are going
to make the playoffs. They could have had a wide receiver.
They looked at Brian Thomas. They went and got Joe
Alt from Notre Dame. They're going to make the playoffs.
They have two of the best young tackles offensive tackles
in the NFL. Yeah. I was just watching it tonight
(06:38):
and I'm looking at all these first round wide receiver
talents and DJ Moore and Roma Dunzae and DK Metcalf
second rounder in Smith and Jigbin. What's it matter if
you have a bad organization or like in Seattle, you
have a mediocre quarterback and I like John Snyder as
general manager for the Seahawks. He's mostly not a good job,
but I think he made a major mistake last year
(06:59):
in the year before not afting a quarterback. And I
said it at the time. I'm not you know, I'm
not looking through the rear view mirror here. I said it.
Speaker 3 (07:05):
Last year.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
Seattle's roster is really solid d line, solid skilled positions,
good corners, linebackers that are mobile and move. They're just
mediocre quarterback. So it was a tough watch tonight. And
you know, I just Chicago fans al Michael's touched on this.
I mean, they are being handed just tire fires and
(07:30):
all their sports and come out tonight and pack that stadium.
Is you know, it's a tip of the cap to
one of the great American cities and sports cities because
fans in that city are getting ripped off. The quality
is awful. It's always been a very political city and
it feels like the same with the Bears. It just
feels like a kind of a political hot mess. So again,
(07:53):
I think my first choice would be vable. I don't
know if he'd accept it. I have real reservations about
all these hot shot offensive coordinators a year ago, Bobby
Slowick Houston OC was a genius. Houston can't score this year.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
C J.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
Stroud has regressed badly. Uh you know the Cliff Kingsbury,
who I like a lot, but he struggled as a
head coach college and pro. You gotta be careful. I mean,
there was a time when everybody was bragging about Shane
Waldron and rehabbing Geno Smith. Shane Waldron, you know, I
don't even know where he's at now. He got booted
out of the Bears organization. So I think when when
(08:33):
a franchise is broken, you got to you got to
get a culture changer. Dan Campbell, Detroit harbab Mike Framele.
That's what it feels like to me. It's a mess.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
You know.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
I thought it was interesting this week before we get
to Chad Millman with our sharpened Square segment. I think
one of the things that is a pretty good sign
that you're going to solve a problem is when you
admit you have a problem. I think anytime a sport
or a business gets defensive about an issue, it just
(09:06):
signals you're not going to solve the issue. Kevin Durant,
Lebron James Joe Missoula and Adam Silver have all acknowledged
in the last ten days that the NBA esthetically has
a problem. Now they've got very nice ratings. You know,
Lebron and Steph just get ratings period. It doesn't matter
if they've play together in the Olympics, the finals are
(09:27):
on Christmas. Lebron and stephf get numbers. They still carry
the league from a TV rating standpoint. But I think
I like the idea that all the top stars, you're
Katie Lebron, the Celtics coach, and Adam Silver acknowledge, Yeah,
we got ninety three's a game. It's just it's homogeneous,
it's monotonous, it's cookie cutter. And you know, a lot
(09:48):
of people are trying to take this issue and anybody
that's critical of the league, well, you know, you're an
old head. You're romanticizing the past. I have said ten
times on the air minimum the Pacers Nicks free throw
shooting contests, Reggie Miller against Spike Lee is the most
overrated finals of my life. It was one of the
team they were scoring in the seventies. It was awful.
(10:11):
I mean, like seven to eight of the ten starters
couldn't shoot. You know, it was all these romanticized tough
guys that really couldn't handle the ball or shoot. It's
not that I've always been an NBA fan, and playoff
basketball is always better because the mid range game comes back.
But it's very much I would liken it to baseball,
and that Rob Manfred has never has raised the ire
(10:33):
of curists. But he listened, and he went to the
minor leagues and they tried this pitch clock, and it worked.
Did it for a couple of years. They brought it
to the bigs. There's no question I watched more baseball,
no question I watched more baseball last year. And they
got rid of the defensive shift because he wanted more
stars on the bases, not in the dugout after lining
out to right field where the second basement was standing.
(10:56):
So these criticisms, the fact that the biggest stars in
the NBA and and the commissioner are acknowledging, yeah, there's
just too many guys that shouldn't be shooting threes. Shooting threes.
I think that's good for the game. I think these discussions,
when you make them actionable, are great for the NBA
because listen, it's some of the world's greatest athletes. Playoff
basketball can be a lot of fun. The league sometimes
(11:17):
has dipped its toe in politics, and that's turned off
a lot of people in the country.
Speaker 3 (11:20):
And I get it.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
I'd love to see Jimmy Butler go to a team
and add some juice to a team like the Warriors.
But I've always loved pro basketball, and I've always loved
basketball in general. But I thought this week was a
really healthy, not divisive, really healthy discussions about the future
of the game. Baseball made changes completely paid off within
(11:43):
a year and really paid off within two years. So
people can argue on the internet. It's almost like the
NIL and transfer portal. I'm for both, but you need guidelines.
Miami's basketball coach you know just retired, said, you know,
NIL has no guardrails. I'm out, And of course people
jump on jim Larnega and say Miami Hurricanes goes, well, well,
(12:06):
you moved, you were at George Mason, you moved. Yes,
coaches of Boa has moved and they'll continue to move,
and players will continue to move. But when like eight
guys of your thirteen on scholarship bail and you have
a good program, You're spending so much time recruiting your
own players forget other high schoolers and AAU stars, that
(12:30):
it makes the game daunting. It's just a you need relentless,
youthful energy to keep up. I mean, Jay Wright should
be coaching now. It just wears you out, and so
if you want to retain your best coaches and have
more continuity, I don't think the NIL or transfer portal
are ruining the sport. I've had more fun watching college
football this year than previous years. But it's okay to
(12:53):
have these live discussions and don't get defensive about it.
You know, transfer portal One thing I like about it.
Quarterbacks run the sport, and if you need one, Oregon's
just going to go get a new one every year.
Keeps Oregon. You don't have these build, big, long rebuilding
years for these top programs. So I'm for all this stuff.
(13:13):
I just like the NBA discussion, and I liked Baseball's discussions,
which they turn actionable right, and I like the NIL discussion.
You can take any side you want, but anything in
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Speaker 1 (14:52):
All right, here we go another edition of Sharper Square.
Chad Milman cost to the favorites. I will have a
couple of college games in here as well because of
I think some of the lines are work in our favor.
By the way, I enjoy the college football playoff. You know,
first rounds of the NCAA tournament, first rounds of the
(15:15):
tournament aren't going to be great. I suspect. I suspect
going forward the second round will be reseeded. That would
be my guess. It will expand to fourteen or sixteen teams.
I think there's been a bit of an overreaction to
the tournament. What say you?
Speaker 4 (15:33):
Yeah, totally. I feel like two things out of this one.
The first point you just made every year in March madness.
The first round has you know, sixteen fourteen blowouts and
two great games, and then like but everyone remembers the
(15:53):
great games, the argument will expand the field, and then
all of a sudden, you're going to span the field
and there's going to be a MAC team that beat
upsetting a Big ten team at twelve to five scenario.
Speaker 3 (16:03):
You're going to have that in college football one day.
I don't worry about it.
Speaker 4 (16:07):
Also, two, you could have predicted before Tennessee played Ohio State,
after Notre Dame had beat up on Indiana and after
SMU was getting it handed to them by Penn State.
I was in a tech chain with a bunch of
IU buddies, right and I was saying, you can guarantee
(16:30):
right now, next year, over correction for SEC and strength
of schedule, you get seven SEC teams. You'll get two
Big ten teams chosen from Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State.
You'll get Clemson out of the ACC, you'll get who
(16:51):
Cares out of the Big twelve, and you'll get Boise State. Right,
because you won't get the at large team. You won't
get the third Big ten team because now the committee
is too scared because of all these blowouts.
Speaker 3 (17:03):
So you're now you're going to get just.
Speaker 4 (17:04):
The sec and when those teams are blown out in
the first round, then you expand and you're like, ask,
We're just going to let everybody in and hopefully we
get some upsets sometime down the road.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
That's my take, all.
Speaker 1 (17:14):
Right, So we'll have some college football picks. We'll start
with the NFL Broncos plus three and a half head
coach Sean Payton with extra time. They played on Thursday.
Cincinnati's defense is atrocious. I think people are overreacting to
just how good Joe Burrow is. They can't stop people
offensive coach extra time. Listen, they outplayed the Chargers for
(17:35):
the first half, and you know then Justin Herbert just
did what great quarterbacks do. He took the game over.
This one jumped out to me as an overreaction. Broncos
plus three and a half sharper square.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
So it's totally sharp. You nailed it about Joe Burrow.
Speaker 4 (17:54):
The Browns were in the Bengals backfield the entire game.
Joe Burrow had no choice but to look brilliant and
make brilliant plays like he's Superman because he was going
to get sacked. He's purouetting into full on dives and
throwing touchdown passes because his offensive line is so bad
(18:14):
that he had no choice but to look like someone
who everybody wants to bet on. Joe Burrow kind of
holds the ball. That's kind of his mo. He wants
to throw the ball downfield. He wants to get it
to Higgins, he wants to get it to Jamar Chase.
I would want to do that too, So it's not
entirely his fault. He's playing into what he thinks will
get them the best opportunity to win. But the Broncos
(18:37):
have as good a pass rush as Cleveland, and they
don't have Dorian Thompson Robinson, who, by the way, almost
got the Browns to cover that game. That's how bad
the Bengals defense is. So let me give you some
stats about bow Nicks that should make you feel more
comfortable about this, because I betted at three and a
half bow Nicks against bad defenses. So defense is below
(18:57):
the fifty percent threshold across a variety of metrics in
the NFL, of which the Bengals are won seven or
zero straight up and against the spread twenty nine points
per game thirteen touchdowns two interceptions. The Broncos are ranked
as a better team than the Bengals across the board
in all DVA metrics, Like it's over inflation on the
(19:18):
Broncos losing in prime time and the Bengals Joe Burrow
looking like a superhero.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
Literally another game that jumped out to me. I don't
like to bet. I don't like to bet bad teams.
But the Saints probably the worst humiliation in the league
this year, a standalone Monday night football game didn't score
and it almost looked like they quit. Now they're at
home getting a point against the horrible Raiders team Sharper Square.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
I don't even know what to say, Colin.
Speaker 4 (19:50):
In all the years we've been doing this, I will
come on this show, whether it was at ESPN or
here and try to get you to bet the ugly
team in the worst game, and you're like, no, not
betting a game I don't want to watch, not betting
a bad quarterback. I was going through my notes before
we came on the show, and I was thinking, all right,
(20:11):
what game am I going to get him to bet
that He's like, I haven't asked about it. It was
the Saints. I'm going to have to work on the
fly and think of a new game. Of course, we're
betting the Saints here like they're getting They just got
blown out in prime.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
Time, humiliated historically.
Speaker 4 (20:26):
Historically, you bet that team blindfolded. It doesn't matter that
they're playing JV players, it doesn't matter who their quarterback is,
they're at home, they're as as a dog. They just
got blown out. Every sort of trend says you play
that team. On the other side, the Raiders. Look, they
beat up on the Jags, but let's not be fooled.
(20:47):
They had a ten game losing streak and the Jags
kept turning the ball over.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
So I wouldn't be too.
Speaker 4 (20:54):
Anxious to bet on the Raiders as road favorites in
this spot.
Speaker 3 (20:59):
Give me the Saints.
Speaker 4 (21:00):
Now, I gotta scramble and think of what my other
game I'm going to try to get you to bed
is well.
Speaker 1 (21:05):
I like the Falcons plus floor the Commanders, and the
reason I like it is, I mean, Jaden Daniels was
a hero at the end, but he just tried to
give that thing away early. I think Michael Pennix is
really good. I think they have a good offensive line
will hold the Commander's pass rush off four points is
a lot. I do not I think the Falcons are
gonna be competitive. Listen, they're playing for a division title,
(21:28):
all right. This is a big game for them. So
this is not like the Commander and the Commanders aren't
gonna get home field advantage. The Falcons can win home
field advantage with these wins down the stretch. It just
seems to me, again, it wasn't that they just beat
the Giants. It's not just that, but Pennix's accuracy. Greg
Cosell talked about it this week. This this kid has
(21:50):
an arm. I don't care if it's windy. I like
the Falcons plus four sharper square, totally sharp.
Speaker 4 (21:57):
Wise, guys, bet this down from four and a half too,
or I'd be surprised if it isn't a three and
a half or lower by the game. A lot of
the reasons you just indicated, Michael Pennix had a lot
of fans into the draft, A lot of professional betters
don't forget.
Speaker 3 (22:14):
The draft has become a huge betting event.
Speaker 4 (22:17):
Professional betters are digging into game film from college the
same way they're digging into game film on a week
to week basis now because there's a money making opportunity.
Speaker 3 (22:25):
There's a market, right. Michael Penix is one of those guys.
Speaker 4 (22:29):
Not dissimilar from Jayden Daniels, not dissimilar from bow Knicks,
not that dissimilar from Caleb Williams.
Speaker 3 (22:36):
A ton of film on the guy.
Speaker 4 (22:37):
He played a lot of college football, and some of
the reasons why these guys who are coming in and
having successes because they played so many games. We saw
how accurate he could be. I love watching Penicks throw
like I think his ball is so pretty. And also
I don't think in a primetime game he is someone
who would be cowed by the lights the way other
(23:00):
rookies might. He's played in massive games. Talk about college
football National Championship. That's a big game. I don't care
if it's in college like that has huge steaks. So
he's been in spots. He's older.
Speaker 3 (23:14):
I like it too.
Speaker 1 (23:16):
A couple of favorites that jump out to me. The
Bills slip walked, sleepwalk through their win over New England,
so you get those when you're a dominant team. The
Jets outplayed the Rams, had a horrible fourth quarter. Now
(23:37):
you've got Aaron Rodgers is not sure he's coming back.
There's more noise than ever. Aaron's had a good last
six to eight weeks. But I think Buffalo is a
significantly better team. Jetstro a little dinged up. Garrett Wilson
is unhappy with his targets. I think Buffalo flexes here.
(23:57):
I think Buffalo also watched the Ravens and the chief
Yief's flex and play brilliantly. As favorites, there's a separation.
You know, I don't like big favorites. I'm gonna take
Buffalo minus eight and a half off all horrible winning
performance Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (24:13):
So it's a little square.
Speaker 4 (24:14):
The numbers moved, you know, it's moved in the Jets direction.
I can't fault you if you want to do this.
Everything you just said is are all the reasons why
I was on the Bills last week.
Speaker 3 (24:27):
I thought they'd want to flex.
Speaker 4 (24:28):
I thought they'd want to respond to Lamar Jackson throwing
five touchdowns against the Giants and put Josh Allen back
in the leadership position and get a stranglehold on that MVP.
It didn't happen right Drake may was running, he was
throwing accurately. Obviously different scenario, I lean into the Bills again.
(24:48):
To be honest, I feel like everything you just said
about the Jets is true, which is why I would
want to back the Bills. Aaron Rodgers had been healthy
for the past three weeks. He's now got a minor
MCL issue on his knee. This team is a train wreck.
I was all over the Jets last week. Whise guys
were in the Jets last week. You cannot count in
(25:12):
the Jets because the decision making of jeff Olbrick is
so bad. He does not seem to understand the basic
constructs of when to go fourth and fourth down, situational
play clock management. If the Jets kick a field goal,
I'm fourth and four from the Rams twelve yard line.
Last week, they're up twelve to six, and that's the ballgame,
(25:35):
Like the Rams were not doing anything. Instead, he twice
went fourth and fourth downs and that's basically when the
Rams won the game. So it's hard to bet on
the Jets because jeff Elbrick is just so bad at.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
This one more NFL game, This line's moved back and forth.
Panthers getting seven and a half division game at the
Bucks Tampa is the better team. But all make the
argument in the last month, Bryce Young is playing like
a number one pick and c. J. Stroud's playing like
a number two pick. The Panthers can move the ball.
(26:10):
They've got a good coach. They can move the ball.
Tampa's dinged up. I think they'll win, but division game
a hot quarterback, it kind of feels like an easy one.
Speaker 4 (26:22):
Sharper square, totally sharp. I haven't understood this line all week.
The wise guys haven't either. It was at eight and
a half, it went down to eight. Now it's at
seven and a half because money has been coming under
the Panthers. I think you're good until seven. You know,
at seven you just sort of leave it alone. You
want to get the hook off of that key number.
A lot of games end on seven. That's when we
(26:44):
talk about key numbers three, seven, those are the biggest ones.
What's interesting about this game is a month ago they
played it in Carolina, Tampa was a six and a
half point favorite on the road, one in overtime because
Tuba Hubbard fumbled the ball in field goal.
Speaker 3 (27:03):
Range for the Bucks.
Speaker 4 (27:04):
Right, So now you take this game to Tampa, Tampa
is only a point and a half better. When the
line came out went from six and a half to eight, right,
Normally home field is three points. What that's telling you
is two things. One, bookmakers have generally regraded the Panthers.
They started off one and seven against the spread. Bryce
Young was terrible. Professional betters had been betting, betting betting
(27:27):
the Panthers. I'm sure listeners remember early in the year.
I was all over the Panthers. Bryce Young two point
zero is everything you just said. He's rolling out of
the pocket using his legs, incredibly accurate, standing in the pocket,
taking really hard hits. He's been great. He's been a
really good quarterback, much better than CJ. Stroud, Like you said,
so bookmakers have adjusted to that. To me, eight was
(27:51):
still a little too high. Wise, guys agree, you're sharp.
Speaker 1 (27:55):
Take the Panthers a college football line that jumps out
to me. I don't believe you can win a national
championship with a bad defense. That's why I think Texas
and Ohio State probably play for the Natty, and I
do think Georgia and Notre Dame are at least in
play to play for the national championship. Oregon's defense is bad.
Boise State ran on it, Ohio State did whatever they
(28:18):
wanted on it. Penn State did whatever they wanted against
the Ducks. I'm trying to forget the Tennessee game because
it was in Columbus, but Ohio State has played in
the Rose Bowl before. Whether it's not a factor. I
said before the season, Oregon's going to beat Ohio State
(28:38):
at Otson. Ohio State will beat them in the rematch.
It's under a field goal. I'd take the Buckeye sharper square.
Speaker 3 (28:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (28:47):
Look, that's the sharp side right now, right, and that's
where the money is. And when you see money, and
sort of any platform you're looking at, you can usually
get betty percentages and money percentages. Money right now is
on Ohio State. And look, you wouldn't expect Ohio State,
which locks to Michigan lost to Oregon, has had a
lot of drama, questions about Ryan Day, the fact they
(29:09):
beat up Tennessee the way they did. Oregon has been
out of the spotlight for a little bit. There's a
lot of sentiment about the Buckeyes defense, like you just said,
So that's the way the money has been going in
this game. Look, it's fascinating, it's rare.
Speaker 1 (29:25):
You're going to.
Speaker 4 (29:25):
Get the second ranked, third ranked whatever it is team
to be the favorite of the number one ranked team.
But that's the spot we're in because of everything you
just said.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
All right, there's a game I want you to kind
of explain to me. So the Cardinals are missing both
their offensive tackles. They have nothing to play for. The
Rams are on a heater. The line starts at like six,
it's now six and a half. Arizona doesn't travel well,
so from time to time the Rams can feel like
(30:04):
a road team at home. This won't be one of
these times. I get the better quarterback, the better coach.
The Rams now are completely healthy. I feel like they're
better than the line. That Jets game was built for
them to lose early game, cold weather, good defense, and
they played a brilliant fourth quarter. I feel like it's
(30:25):
six to six and a half. I have to bet
the Rams. I know it's divisional sharper square if I
like the Rams.
Speaker 4 (30:34):
Well, it's totally sharp if you like the Rams. But
this is sort of the nuance of the betting business
is getting the best of the number. This game on
Sunday night opened Rams at minus four, So I'll do
the favorites with professional better Simon Hunter on Sunday night
on the Volume podcast network. We'll do it go on
(30:54):
air at seven thirty.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
We'll do it live. We're off air before the Sunday
night game.
Speaker 4 (30:58):
The timing is relevant here because we will preview the
games that we like the most first glance, you know,
gut instinct, not having done any research for the following week.
This game stood out immediately. We started talking about the
Rams minus four. Why is this number?
Speaker 3 (31:18):
Solow?
Speaker 4 (31:20):
The Rams just got out of a trap game against
the Jets, and they won. The week before, they got lucky,
the Niners dropped a couple interceptions. They beat the Niners
in a monsoon. Now they're going home, chance to clinch
the division against a team that is down. James Connor injured.
We saw him practicing but still limping. Offensive linemen injured.
(31:43):
Not a very good defense. A coach who doesn't know
how to keep his team up yet the way they
say Sean McVay would, or even Mike McCarthy did with
the Cowboys against the Bucks. The number during that show
went from four to four and a half to five
to five and a half. Thirty minutes, it moved a
point and a half. By Monday morning it was six.
(32:07):
And so when you're talking about why isn't it sharp
to bet the Rams now, because the wise guy's been
betting it since it was at four, four and a half, five,
five and a half, and a little bit at six
until it got to six and a half. It got
to seven, and wise guys started betting the Cardinals at seven.
Speaker 3 (32:24):
Again, the Rams are the right side, but if.
Speaker 4 (32:28):
You want to win as a better long term then
you have to have enough discipline to choose the best
of the number and then walk away. If you don't
feel like you're getting it. You can still bet the
Rams at six and a half. You'll probably end up winning,
but it's not going to be a sharp side at
six and a half. All right.
Speaker 1 (32:45):
I gotta tell you I've had a lousy year betting,
but so far I've got seven of eight division winners.
I picked a surprise playoff team every year. It was
the Washington Commanders. I pick a team that will double
the Vegas win told it was the Denver Broncos. I
said this on the air today on TV on FS one.
There's the old saying with kids, the days are long,
(33:07):
but the years fly by, and I feel like with
the NFL week to week it's crazy, but over the
course of a season, it's very predictable. So I've had
a terrible year betting because I tend to take underdogs
and value. You know, I'm always seeking value over favorites,
but a lot of favorites. Of one is I'm trying
(33:28):
to think. I missed badly on the Jacksonville Jaguars badly,
but I'm proudest on my commander's pick. If I said
to you, give me your width and the one you'll
plant the flag and as you're really proud of this year.
Speaker 4 (33:45):
Oh, it's It's interesting. The Width started as the Panthers,
just because I loved him. I just thought this team,
this coach, this quarterback, this offensive line. More than anything,
I just thought they were going to be much much better.
It ended up being a whit because they started off
so badly and I lost so much on them early
(34:07):
in the year. I'll take a little bit credit that
they got better, and so I'm glad about that.
Speaker 3 (34:14):
To me, the.
Speaker 4 (34:16):
One I'm most proud of is the Chargers. I love
Jim Harbaugh and we didn't even talk about that game.
I think he's a football savant, and I think that
what he did against the Broncos is the exact reason
why his teams turn around so quickly no matter the
talent level. He knows the rules, he knows strategy, he
(34:38):
knows clock management so well. What he did at the
end of that first half against Sean Payton, who's a
brilliant coach, was a masterclass.
Speaker 3 (34:48):
Right.
Speaker 4 (34:49):
He takes the time out so they have to punt.
The punk leads to the roughing the returner, the personal
file that leads to the free kick leads to the
Chargers having momentum and they win that game going away.
That's good decision making, and you don't see That's what
you don't see from Jeff Albrook. It's what you're not
seeing from Jared Mayo, like you see the difference there.
(35:12):
So to me, I'm most proud of the Chargers because
I thought they'd be good this year and I played
it that way. By the way, I'll also tell you
that the bet that I always love the most, which
I'm still in play for, I always do sort of
a round robin on the teams that are at twelve
to one or shorter to win the Super Bowl, and
(35:34):
I will bet them in Super Bowl matchups because you
can usually get those at like between twenty and thirty
five to one. So you bet the Chiefs and the Allions,
you bet the Chiefs and the Eagles, you bet the
Ravens and the Lions, you bet the Ravens and the Eagles,
and you bet the Bills and et cetera, et cetera,
et cetera. I'm still alive with that. Even with the Bengals.
(35:58):
I'm alive with that if they made the playoffs. So
I always like that bet and feel good now that
the Chiefs and the Ravens at least are two of
the teams that I most heavily favored at the beginning
of the year, along with the Eagles and the Lions,
and I feel good that those matchups are still in play.
Speaker 1 (36:17):
Chargers minus four at New England. As long as we're
talking about Harbaugh tend to like teams favored. JK. Dobbins
should play Gus Edwards out which side of a leen? Oh?
Speaker 3 (36:27):
I totally lean Chargers.
Speaker 4 (36:29):
And this is a walking into a hornet's nest. Like
in any other year, you mentioned the favorites, right in
any other year, We're playing the Patriots here we're playing
a team that's out of it at home more than
a field goal underdog, a team traveling that's fighting to
(36:50):
make the playoffs. Every trend will tell you against the
spread in this scenario, the underdog is the right play.
But for what we just talked about, I think Harbaugh's
a brilliant coach. I think that teams are making more
aggressive decisions, so they're scoring more points.
Speaker 3 (37:10):
I think that the fact.
Speaker 4 (37:11):
That the most teams are starting field position at the
thirty yard line is getting them closer to scoring in
the other side of the field and making them more
comfortable on fourth and four from the forty going forward
instead of kicking a field goal.
Speaker 3 (37:25):
And so I think that's one of the reasons.
Speaker 4 (37:27):
Why we're seeing underdogs lose so much this year and
favorites win is there's more opportunity for them to score
at a higher rate in bigger chunks, and it's impacting betting,
Like betters are not having a great year. You know,
favorites have gone seventy one percent straight up this year,
just winning straight up. That's the most profitable season since
(37:50):
two thy thirteen teams getting over sixty percent at the spread.
So we talk about fading the public. We want to
be contrarian because the public doesn't know anything. Teams getting
over sixty percent of the spread, covering fifty six percent
this year against the spread, home underdogs forty three percent
(38:11):
against the spread this year. That'll be the third least
profitable season since nineteen ninety. So for people like you,
people like me, I want to fade the public. I
want to bet home underdogs. That's usually where the value is.
It's been a rough go of it.
Speaker 1 (38:27):
Man Chad Melman, co host of The Favorites. Good luck, Buddy,
good luck to all of us. The volume
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(01:13):
I should get overtime pay for staying up tonight and
talking about this awful Seattle six to three went over
the Chicago Bears. You know, first of all, just a
broad comment. Caleb Williams has thrown for over three hundred
yards four times this season. That's more than Patrick Mahomes.
That's remarkable. And tonight he had an interception for the
(01:35):
first time and forever. Nobody could have succeeded with this
team in this season. I mean, they're using a basically
their third different person is sort of assembling the game
plan this year. It's just a circus. It is an
absolute circus. He's still the youngest quarterback in the NFC.
(01:57):
He's got boundless talent. He made a couple of really
nice throws tonight. I mean Gino smith Is, I mean
just a ham and egger. Caleb's got all sorts of talent.
But there's just nothing you can do with this franchise.
There's nothing I like about it. Like even bad franchises.
Let's let's let's take a franchise, you know, like the Jets.
(02:19):
They had Robert Sola for years, an excellent defensive coach.
Joe Douglas whipped on a quarterback in a COVID year,
But that roster is a bunch of Joe Douglas draft picks,
it's very good. He also went and got Davonte Adams
before he got fired, and Deavante and Aaron are connecting.
Take a franchise like the Carolina Panthers. They went out
(02:41):
and got an excellent young offensive coach who looks like
he has turned Bryce Young from a bust to a decent, mobile, athletic,
accurate starter. There's nothing about the Bears outside of Caleb Williams.
I mean, it's I don't trust the ownership. You know,
Kevin Warren, the president, has a reputation is more Paula
Titians and football expert Ryan Poles, you know, I mean, listen,
(03:06):
keep him fine, move off him fine. I don't think
he's done a terrible job last year. Four picks. He
took a punter. That's not what I would have done.
They could have, you know, made more moves, eber flues.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
The staff.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
It's a mess. I mean, it's just nothing that's redeemable
about the franchise outside of Caleb Williams and a couple
of players Montes Sweat, Jalen Johnson, DJ Moore. You know,
they've got a couple of players I like, But everybody
in the NFL's got a couple of players. It's just
nobody could have succeeded here. You know, tonight it was
(03:42):
an unwatchable mess. And all the fears that Kayleb Williams
had privately going to Chicago. I mean I reported this
last year. I got pushedback on it, but people in
his camp were worried this franchise. I mean, look at
Chicago's ports right now, White Sox, Blackhawks, Bears. I don't
have any ability to decipher why not great ownership is
(04:08):
a place to start, but I feel I feel sad
for the kid because and you can see the talent.
I mean you you would have to be trying to
make an argument to say you can't see his talent.
I mean last night or tonight was the first interception
he's had in forever. I think it was like since Halloween.
(04:28):
And that's why this idea that you can just go
out and get some you know, Ben Johnson and he's
going to change the world. You know, that guy's never
been a head coach at the high school level. There
are so many hurdles to overcome in this organization. I
don't think there's a good job right now in the NFL,
(04:49):
I really don't. I don't think any of these jobs
are good. And if Oz Mike Frable, I'd sit it
out for a year because I think next year you
could possibly have the Cowboys, Bengals and Joe Burrow would
be available. You know, there's a couple of opportunities out
there next year. Keep your eye on. If Sean McDermott
does not win in Buffalo, I think Sean McDermott, a
(05:10):
good coach, could be in trouble. So though, those are
really good opportunities, and there's only been three great coaching
opportunities in the last eight years, Green Bay Matt Lafleur,
I think Mike McCarthy and Dallas and getting Justin Herbert
with a Chargers. Those are really high end coaching opportunities.
I wouldn't want the Chicago job, despite Caleb's talent. I
wouldn't want it. That's how bad it is. My other
(05:33):
takeaway in this game, it's funny the number one position
in the NFL over the last twenty years that has
been the biggest bust rate in the first round is
wide receiver, And obviously, you know wide receivers can make
dynamic plays. But the Seahawks have Smith and Jigba first rounder,
DK Metcalf, second rounder, a good tight end, and Noah
(05:56):
Fant excellent running back Charboney who's their second back. But
equality Gino Smith can't play. You're eight, nine, nine and
eight with Gino Smith. That's just what it is, you know,
Roma Dunza, what can you do? They've been better off
going out and getting an available offensive tackle. Instead, they
went in later rounds and got some prospect I think
(06:17):
from Yale, and you know, can he play? We'll see.
You know, you look at the Chargers who are going
to make the playoffs. They could have had a wide receiver.
They looked at Brian Thomas. They went and got Joe
Alt from Notre Dame. They're going to make the playoffs.
They have two of the best young tackles offensive tackles
in the NFL. Yeah. I was just watching it tonight
(06:38):
and I'm looking at all these first round wide receiver
talents and DJ Moore and Roma Dunzae and DK Metcalf
second rounder in Smith and Jigbin. What's it matter if
you have a bad organization or like in Seattle, you
have a mediocre quarterback and I like John Snyder as
general manager for the Seahawks. He's mostly not a good job,
but I think he made a major mistake last year
(06:59):
in the year before not afting a quarterback. And I
said it at the time. I'm not you know, I'm
not looking through the rear view mirror here. I said it.
Speaker 3 (07:05):
Last year.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
Seattle's roster is really solid d line, solid skilled positions,
good corners, linebackers that are mobile and move. They're just
mediocre quarterback. So it was a tough watch tonight. And
you know, I just Chicago fans al Michael's touched on this.
I mean, they are being handed just tire fires and
(07:30):
all their sports and come out tonight and pack that stadium.
Is you know, it's a tip of the cap to
one of the great American cities and sports cities because
fans in that city are getting ripped off. The quality
is awful. It's always been a very political city and
it feels like the same with the Bears. It just
feels like a kind of a political hot mess. So again,
(07:53):
I think my first choice would be vable. I don't
know if he'd accept it. I have real reservations about
all these hot shot offensive coordinators a year ago, Bobby
Slowick Houston OC was a genius. Houston can't score this year.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
C J.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
Stroud has regressed badly. Uh you know the Cliff Kingsbury,
who I like a lot, but he struggled as a
head coach college and pro. You gotta be careful. I mean,
there was a time when everybody was bragging about Shane
Waldron and rehabbing Geno Smith. Shane Waldron, you know, I
don't even know where he's at now. He got booted
out of the Bears organization. So I think when when
(08:33):
a franchise is broken, you got to you got to
get a culture changer. Dan Campbell, Detroit harbab Mike Framele.
That's what it feels like to me. It's a mess.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
You know.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
I thought it was interesting this week before we get
to Chad Millman with our sharpened Square segment. I think
one of the things that is a pretty good sign
that you're going to solve a problem is when you
admit you have a problem. I think anytime a sport
or a business gets defensive about an issue, it just
(09:06):
signals you're not going to solve the issue. Kevin Durant,
Lebron James Joe Missoula and Adam Silver have all acknowledged
in the last ten days that the NBA esthetically has
a problem. Now they've got very nice ratings. You know,
Lebron and Steph just get ratings period. It doesn't matter
if they've play together in the Olympics, the finals are
(09:27):
on Christmas. Lebron and stephf get numbers. They still carry
the league from a TV rating standpoint. But I think
I like the idea that all the top stars, you're
Katie Lebron, the Celtics coach, and Adam Silver acknowledge, Yeah,
we got ninety three's a game. It's just it's homogeneous,
it's monotonous, it's cookie cutter. And you know, a lot
(09:48):
of people are trying to take this issue and anybody
that's critical of the league, well, you know, you're an
old head. You're romanticizing the past. I have said ten
times on the air minimum the Pacers Nicks free throw
shooting contests, Reggie Miller against Spike Lee is the most
overrated finals of my life. It was one of the
team they were scoring in the seventies. It was awful.
(10:11):
I mean, like seven to eight of the ten starters
couldn't shoot. You know, it was all these romanticized tough
guys that really couldn't handle the ball or shoot. It's
not that I've always been an NBA fan, and playoff
basketball is always better because the mid range game comes back.
But it's very much I would liken it to baseball,
and that Rob Manfred has never has raised the ire
(10:33):
of curists. But he listened, and he went to the
minor leagues and they tried this pitch clock, and it worked.
Did it for a couple of years. They brought it
to the bigs. There's no question I watched more baseball,
no question I watched more baseball last year. And they
got rid of the defensive shift because he wanted more
stars on the bases, not in the dugout after lining
out to right field where the second basement was standing.
(10:56):
So these criticisms, the fact that the biggest stars in
the NBA and and the commissioner are acknowledging, yeah, there's
just too many guys that shouldn't be shooting threes. Shooting threes.
I think that's good for the game. I think these discussions,
when you make them actionable, are great for the NBA
because listen, it's some of the world's greatest athletes. Playoff
basketball can be a lot of fun. The league sometimes
(11:17):
has dipped its toe in politics, and that's turned off
a lot of people in the country.
Speaker 3 (11:20):
And I get it.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
I'd love to see Jimmy Butler go to a team
and add some juice to a team like the Warriors.
But I've always loved pro basketball, and I've always loved
basketball in general. But I thought this week was a
really healthy, not divisive, really healthy discussions about the future
of the game. Baseball made changes completely paid off within
(11:43):
a year and really paid off within two years. So
people can argue on the internet. It's almost like the
NIL and transfer portal. I'm for both, but you need guidelines.
Miami's basketball coach you know just retired, said, you know,
NIL has no guardrails. I'm out, And of course people
jump on jim Larnega and say Miami Hurricanes goes, well, well,
(12:06):
you moved, you were at George Mason, you moved. Yes,
coaches of Boa has moved and they'll continue to move,
and players will continue to move. But when like eight
guys of your thirteen on scholarship bail and you have
a good program, You're spending so much time recruiting your
own players forget other high schoolers and AAU stars, that
(12:30):
it makes the game daunting. It's just a you need relentless,
youthful energy to keep up. I mean, Jay Wright should
be coaching now. It just wears you out, and so
if you want to retain your best coaches and have
more continuity, I don't think the NIL or transfer portal
are ruining the sport. I've had more fun watching college
football this year than previous years. But it's okay to
(12:53):
have these live discussions and don't get defensive about it.
You know, transfer portal One thing I like about it.
Quarterbacks run the sport, and if you need one, Oregon's
just going to go get a new one every year.
Keeps Oregon. You don't have these build, big, long rebuilding
years for these top programs. So I'm for all this stuff.
(13:13):
I just like the NBA discussion, and I liked Baseball's discussions,
which they turn actionable right, and I like the NIL discussion.
You can take any side you want, but anything in
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Speaker 1 (14:52):
All right, here we go another edition of Sharper Square.
Chad Milman cost to the favorites. I will have a
couple of college games in here as well because of
I think some of the lines are work in our favor.
By the way, I enjoy the college football playoff. You know,
first rounds of the NCAA tournament, first rounds of the
(15:15):
tournament aren't going to be great. I suspect. I suspect
going forward the second round will be reseeded. That would
be my guess. It will expand to fourteen or sixteen teams.
I think there's been a bit of an overreaction to
the tournament. What say you?
Speaker 4 (15:33):
Yeah, totally. I feel like two things out of this one.
The first point you just made every year in March madness.
The first round has you know, sixteen fourteen blowouts and
two great games, and then like but everyone remembers the
(15:53):
great games, the argument will expand the field, and then
all of a sudden, you're going to span the field
and there's going to be a MAC team that beat
upsetting a Big ten team at twelve to five scenario.
Speaker 3 (16:03):
You're going to have that in college football one day.
I don't worry about it.
Speaker 4 (16:07):
Also, two, you could have predicted before Tennessee played Ohio State,
after Notre Dame had beat up on Indiana and after
SMU was getting it handed to them by Penn State.
I was in a tech chain with a bunch of
IU buddies, right and I was saying, you can guarantee
(16:30):
right now, next year, over correction for SEC and strength
of schedule, you get seven SEC teams. You'll get two
Big ten teams chosen from Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State.
You'll get Clemson out of the ACC, you'll get who
(16:51):
Cares out of the Big twelve, and you'll get Boise State. Right,
because you won't get the at large team. You won't
get the third Big ten team because now the committee
is too scared because of all these blowouts.
Speaker 3 (17:03):
So you're now you're going to get just.
Speaker 4 (17:04):
The sec and when those teams are blown out in
the first round, then you expand and you're like, ask,
We're just going to let everybody in and hopefully we
get some upsets sometime down the road.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
That's my take, all.
Speaker 1 (17:14):
Right, So we'll have some college football picks. We'll start
with the NFL Broncos plus three and a half head
coach Sean Payton with extra time. They played on Thursday.
Cincinnati's defense is atrocious. I think people are overreacting to
just how good Joe Burrow is. They can't stop people
offensive coach extra time. Listen, they outplayed the Chargers for
(17:35):
the first half, and you know then Justin Herbert just
did what great quarterbacks do. He took the game over.
This one jumped out to me as an overreaction. Broncos
plus three and a half sharper square.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
So it's totally sharp. You nailed it about Joe Burrow.
Speaker 4 (17:54):
The Browns were in the Bengals backfield the entire game.
Joe Burrow had no choice but to look brilliant and
make brilliant plays like he's Superman because he was going
to get sacked. He's purouetting into full on dives and
throwing touchdown passes because his offensive line is so bad
(18:14):
that he had no choice but to look like someone
who everybody wants to bet on. Joe Burrow kind of
holds the ball. That's kind of his mo. He wants
to throw the ball downfield. He wants to get it
to Higgins, he wants to get it to Jamar Chase.
I would want to do that too, So it's not
entirely his fault. He's playing into what he thinks will
get them the best opportunity to win. But the Broncos
(18:37):
have as good a pass rush as Cleveland, and they
don't have Dorian Thompson Robinson, who, by the way, almost
got the Browns to cover that game. That's how bad
the Bengals defense is. So let me give you some
stats about bow Nicks that should make you feel more
comfortable about this, because I betted at three and a
half bow Nicks against bad defenses. So defense is below
(18:57):
the fifty percent threshold across a variety of metrics in
the NFL, of which the Bengals are won seven or
zero straight up and against the spread twenty nine points
per game thirteen touchdowns two interceptions. The Broncos are ranked
as a better team than the Bengals across the board
in all DVA metrics, Like it's over inflation on the
(19:18):
Broncos losing in prime time and the Bengals Joe Burrow
looking like a superhero.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
Literally another game that jumped out to me. I don't
like to bet. I don't like to bet bad teams.
But the Saints probably the worst humiliation in the league
this year, a standalone Monday night football game didn't score
and it almost looked like they quit. Now they're at
home getting a point against the horrible Raiders team Sharper Square.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
I don't even know what to say, Colin.
Speaker 4 (19:50):
In all the years we've been doing this, I will
come on this show, whether it was at ESPN or
here and try to get you to bet the ugly
team in the worst game, and you're like, no, not
betting a game I don't want to watch, not betting
a bad quarterback. I was going through my notes before
we came on the show, and I was thinking, all right,
(20:11):
what game am I going to get him to bet
that He's like, I haven't asked about it. It was
the Saints. I'm going to have to work on the
fly and think of a new game. Of course, we're
betting the Saints here like they're getting They just got
blown out in prime.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
Time, humiliated historically.
Speaker 4 (20:26):
Historically, you bet that team blindfolded. It doesn't matter that
they're playing JV players, it doesn't matter who their quarterback is,
they're at home, they're as as a dog. They just
got blown out. Every sort of trend says you play
that team. On the other side, the Raiders. Look, they
beat up on the Jags, but let's not be fooled.
(20:47):
They had a ten game losing streak and the Jags
kept turning the ball over.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
So I wouldn't be too.
Speaker 4 (20:54):
Anxious to bet on the Raiders as road favorites in
this spot.
Speaker 3 (20:59):
Give me the Saints.
Speaker 4 (21:00):
Now, I gotta scramble and think of what my other
game I'm going to try to get you to bed
is well.
Speaker 1 (21:05):
I like the Falcons plus floor the Commanders, and the
reason I like it is, I mean, Jaden Daniels was
a hero at the end, but he just tried to
give that thing away early. I think Michael Pennix is
really good. I think they have a good offensive line
will hold the Commander's pass rush off four points is
a lot. I do not I think the Falcons are
gonna be competitive. Listen, they're playing for a division title,
(21:28):
all right. This is a big game for them. So
this is not like the Commander and the Commanders aren't
gonna get home field advantage. The Falcons can win home
field advantage with these wins down the stretch. It just
seems to me, again, it wasn't that they just beat
the Giants. It's not just that, but Pennix's accuracy. Greg
Cosell talked about it this week. This this kid has
(21:50):
an arm. I don't care if it's windy. I like
the Falcons plus four sharper square, totally sharp.
Speaker 4 (21:57):
Wise, guys, bet this down from four and a half too,
or I'd be surprised if it isn't a three and
a half or lower by the game. A lot of
the reasons you just indicated, Michael Pennix had a lot
of fans into the draft, A lot of professional betters
don't forget.
Speaker 3 (22:14):
The draft has become a huge betting event.
Speaker 4 (22:17):
Professional betters are digging into game film from college the
same way they're digging into game film on a week
to week basis now because there's a money making opportunity.
Speaker 3 (22:25):
There's a market, right. Michael Penix is one of those guys.
Speaker 4 (22:29):
Not dissimilar from Jayden Daniels, not dissimilar from bow Knicks,
not that dissimilar from Caleb Williams.
Speaker 3 (22:36):
A ton of film on the guy.
Speaker 4 (22:37):
He played a lot of college football, and some of
the reasons why these guys who are coming in and
having successes because they played so many games. We saw
how accurate he could be. I love watching Penicks throw
like I think his ball is so pretty. And also
I don't think in a primetime game he is someone
who would be cowed by the lights the way other
(23:00):
rookies might. He's played in massive games. Talk about college
football National Championship. That's a big game. I don't care
if it's in college like that has huge steaks. So
he's been in spots. He's older.
Speaker 3 (23:14):
I like it too.
Speaker 1 (23:16):
A couple of favorites that jump out to me. The
Bills slip walked, sleepwalk through their win over New England,
so you get those when you're a dominant team. The
Jets outplayed the Rams, had a horrible fourth quarter. Now
(23:37):
you've got Aaron Rodgers is not sure he's coming back.
There's more noise than ever. Aaron's had a good last
six to eight weeks. But I think Buffalo is a
significantly better team. Jetstro a little dinged up. Garrett Wilson
is unhappy with his targets. I think Buffalo flexes here.
(23:57):
I think Buffalo also watched the Ravens and the chief
Yief's flex and play brilliantly. As favorites, there's a separation.
You know, I don't like big favorites. I'm gonna take
Buffalo minus eight and a half off all horrible winning
performance Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (24:13):
So it's a little square.
Speaker 4 (24:14):
The numbers moved, you know, it's moved in the Jets direction.
I can't fault you if you want to do this.
Everything you just said is are all the reasons why
I was on the Bills last week.
Speaker 3 (24:27):
I thought they'd want to flex.
Speaker 4 (24:28):
I thought they'd want to respond to Lamar Jackson throwing
five touchdowns against the Giants and put Josh Allen back
in the leadership position and get a stranglehold on that MVP.
It didn't happen right Drake may was running, he was
throwing accurately. Obviously different scenario, I lean into the Bills again.
(24:48):
To be honest, I feel like everything you just said
about the Jets is true, which is why I would
want to back the Bills. Aaron Rodgers had been healthy
for the past three weeks. He's now got a minor
MCL issue on his knee. This team is a train wreck.
I was all over the Jets last week. Whise guys
were in the Jets last week. You cannot count in
(25:12):
the Jets because the decision making of jeff Olbrick is
so bad. He does not seem to understand the basic
constructs of when to go fourth and fourth down, situational
play clock management. If the Jets kick a field goal,
I'm fourth and four from the Rams twelve yard line.
Last week, they're up twelve to six, and that's the ballgame,
(25:35):
Like the Rams were not doing anything. Instead, he twice
went fourth and fourth downs and that's basically when the
Rams won the game. So it's hard to bet on
the Jets because jeff Elbrick is just so bad at.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
This one more NFL game, This line's moved back and forth.
Panthers getting seven and a half division game at the
Bucks Tampa is the better team. But all make the
argument in the last month, Bryce Young is playing like
a number one pick and c. J. Stroud's playing like
a number two pick. The Panthers can move the ball.
(26:10):
They've got a good coach. They can move the ball.
Tampa's dinged up. I think they'll win, but division game
a hot quarterback, it kind of feels like an easy one.
Speaker 4 (26:22):
Sharper square, totally sharp. I haven't understood this line all week.
The wise guys haven't either. It was at eight and
a half, it went down to eight. Now it's at
seven and a half because money has been coming under
the Panthers. I think you're good until seven. You know,
at seven you just sort of leave it alone. You
want to get the hook off of that key number.
A lot of games end on seven. That's when we
(26:44):
talk about key numbers three, seven, those are the biggest ones.
What's interesting about this game is a month ago they
played it in Carolina, Tampa was a six and a
half point favorite on the road, one in overtime because
Tuba Hubbard fumbled the ball in field goal.
Speaker 3 (27:03):
Range for the Bucks.
Speaker 4 (27:04):
Right, So now you take this game to Tampa, Tampa
is only a point and a half better. When the
line came out went from six and a half to eight, right,
Normally home field is three points. What that's telling you
is two things. One, bookmakers have generally regraded the Panthers.
They started off one and seven against the spread. Bryce
Young was terrible. Professional betters had been betting, betting betting
(27:27):
the Panthers. I'm sure listeners remember early in the year.
I was all over the Panthers. Bryce Young two point
zero is everything you just said. He's rolling out of
the pocket using his legs, incredibly accurate, standing in the pocket,
taking really hard hits. He's been great. He's been a
really good quarterback, much better than CJ. Stroud, Like you said,
so bookmakers have adjusted to that. To me, eight was
(27:51):
still a little too high. Wise, guys agree, you're sharp.
Speaker 1 (27:55):
Take the Panthers a college football line that jumps out
to me. I don't believe you can win a national
championship with a bad defense. That's why I think Texas
and Ohio State probably play for the Natty, and I
do think Georgia and Notre Dame are at least in
play to play for the national championship. Oregon's defense is bad.
Boise State ran on it, Ohio State did whatever they
(28:18):
wanted on it. Penn State did whatever they wanted against
the Ducks. I'm trying to forget the Tennessee game because
it was in Columbus, but Ohio State has played in
the Rose Bowl before. Whether it's not a factor. I
said before the season, Oregon's going to beat Ohio State
(28:38):
at Otson. Ohio State will beat them in the rematch.
It's under a field goal. I'd take the Buckeye sharper square.
Speaker 3 (28:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (28:47):
Look, that's the sharp side right now, right, and that's
where the money is. And when you see money, and
sort of any platform you're looking at, you can usually
get betty percentages and money percentages. Money right now is
on Ohio State. And look, you wouldn't expect Ohio State,
which locks to Michigan lost to Oregon, has had a
lot of drama, questions about Ryan Day, the fact they
(29:09):
beat up Tennessee the way they did. Oregon has been
out of the spotlight for a little bit. There's a
lot of sentiment about the Buckeyes defense, like you just said,
So that's the way the money has been going in
this game. Look, it's fascinating, it's rare.
Speaker 1 (29:25):
You're going to.
Speaker 4 (29:25):
Get the second ranked, third ranked whatever it is team
to be the favorite of the number one ranked team.
But that's the spot we're in because of everything you
just said.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
All right, there's a game I want you to kind
of explain to me. So the Cardinals are missing both
their offensive tackles. They have nothing to play for. The
Rams are on a heater. The line starts at like six,
it's now six and a half. Arizona doesn't travel well,
so from time to time the Rams can feel like
(30:04):
a road team at home. This won't be one of
these times. I get the better quarterback, the better coach.
The Rams now are completely healthy. I feel like they're
better than the line. That Jets game was built for
them to lose early game, cold weather, good defense, and
they played a brilliant fourth quarter. I feel like it's
(30:25):
six to six and a half. I have to bet
the Rams. I know it's divisional sharper square if I
like the Rams.
Speaker 4 (30:34):
Well, it's totally sharp if you like the Rams. But
this is sort of the nuance of the betting business
is getting the best of the number. This game on
Sunday night opened Rams at minus four, So I'll do
the favorites with professional better Simon Hunter on Sunday night
on the Volume podcast network. We'll do it go on
(30:54):
air at seven thirty.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
We'll do it live. We're off air before the Sunday
night game.
Speaker 4 (30:58):
The timing is relevant here because we will preview the
games that we like the most first glance, you know,
gut instinct, not having done any research for the following week.
This game stood out immediately. We started talking about the
Rams minus four. Why is this number?
Speaker 3 (31:18):
Solow?
Speaker 4 (31:20):
The Rams just got out of a trap game against
the Jets, and they won. The week before, they got lucky,
the Niners dropped a couple interceptions. They beat the Niners
in a monsoon. Now they're going home, chance to clinch
the division against a team that is down. James Connor injured.
We saw him practicing but still limping. Offensive linemen injured.
(31:43):
Not a very good defense. A coach who doesn't know
how to keep his team up yet the way they
say Sean McVay would, or even Mike McCarthy did with
the Cowboys against the Bucks. The number during that show
went from four to four and a half to five
to five and a half. Thirty minutes, it moved a
point and a half. By Monday morning it was six.
(32:07):
And so when you're talking about why isn't it sharp
to bet the Rams now, because the wise guy's been
betting it since it was at four, four and a half, five,
five and a half, and a little bit at six
until it got to six and a half. It got
to seven, and wise guys started betting the Cardinals at seven.
Speaker 3 (32:24):
Again, the Rams are the right side, but if.
Speaker 4 (32:28):
You want to win as a better long term then
you have to have enough discipline to choose the best
of the number and then walk away. If you don't
feel like you're getting it. You can still bet the
Rams at six and a half. You'll probably end up winning,
but it's not going to be a sharp side at
six and a half. All right.
Speaker 1 (32:45):
I gotta tell you I've had a lousy year betting,
but so far I've got seven of eight division winners.
I picked a surprise playoff team every year. It was
the Washington Commanders. I pick a team that will double
the Vegas win told it was the Denver Broncos. I
said this on the air today on TV on FS one.
There's the old saying with kids, the days are long,
(33:07):
but the years fly by, and I feel like with
the NFL week to week it's crazy, but over the
course of a season, it's very predictable. So I've had
a terrible year betting because I tend to take underdogs
and value. You know, I'm always seeking value over favorites,
but a lot of favorites. Of one is I'm trying
(33:28):
to think. I missed badly on the Jacksonville Jaguars badly,
but I'm proudest on my commander's pick. If I said
to you, give me your width and the one you'll
plant the flag and as you're really proud of this year.
Speaker 4 (33:45):
Oh, it's It's interesting. The Width started as the Panthers,
just because I loved him. I just thought this team,
this coach, this quarterback, this offensive line. More than anything,
I just thought they were going to be much much better.
It ended up being a whit because they started off
so badly and I lost so much on them early
(34:07):
in the year. I'll take a little bit credit that
they got better, and so I'm glad about that.
Speaker 3 (34:14):
To me, the.
Speaker 4 (34:16):
One I'm most proud of is the Chargers. I love
Jim Harbaugh and we didn't even talk about that game.
I think he's a football savant, and I think that
what he did against the Broncos is the exact reason
why his teams turn around so quickly no matter the
talent level. He knows the rules, he knows strategy, he
(34:38):
knows clock management so well. What he did at the
end of that first half against Sean Payton, who's a
brilliant coach, was a masterclass.
Speaker 3 (34:48):
Right.
Speaker 4 (34:49):
He takes the time out so they have to punt.
The punk leads to the roughing the returner, the personal
file that leads to the free kick leads to the
Chargers having momentum and they win that game going away.
That's good decision making, and you don't see That's what
you don't see from Jeff Albrook. It's what you're not
seeing from Jared Mayo, like you see the difference there.
(35:12):
So to me, I'm most proud of the Chargers because
I thought they'd be good this year and I played
it that way. By the way, I'll also tell you
that the bet that I always love the most, which
I'm still in play for, I always do sort of
a round robin on the teams that are at twelve
to one or shorter to win the Super Bowl, and
(35:34):
I will bet them in Super Bowl matchups because you
can usually get those at like between twenty and thirty
five to one. So you bet the Chiefs and the Allions,
you bet the Chiefs and the Eagles, you bet the
Ravens and the Lions, you bet the Ravens and the Eagles,
and you bet the Bills and et cetera, et cetera,
et cetera. I'm still alive with that. Even with the Bengals.
(35:58):
I'm alive with that if they made the playoffs. So
I always like that bet and feel good now that
the Chiefs and the Ravens at least are two of
the teams that I most heavily favored at the beginning
of the year, along with the Eagles and the Lions,
and I feel good that those matchups are still in play.
Speaker 1 (36:17):
Chargers minus four at New England. As long as we're
talking about Harbaugh tend to like teams favored. JK. Dobbins
should play Gus Edwards out which side of a leen? Oh?
Speaker 3 (36:27):
I totally lean Chargers.
Speaker 4 (36:29):
And this is a walking into a hornet's nest. Like
in any other year, you mentioned the favorites, right in
any other year, We're playing the Patriots here we're playing
a team that's out of it at home more than
a field goal underdog, a team traveling that's fighting to
(36:50):
make the playoffs. Every trend will tell you against the
spread in this scenario, the underdog is the right play.
But for what we just talked about, I think Harbaugh's
a brilliant coach. I think that teams are making more
aggressive decisions, so they're scoring more points.
Speaker 3 (37:10):
I think that the fact.
Speaker 4 (37:11):
That the most teams are starting field position at the
thirty yard line is getting them closer to scoring in
the other side of the field and making them more
comfortable on fourth and four from the forty going forward
instead of kicking a field goal.
Speaker 3 (37:25):
And so I think that's one of the reasons.
Speaker 4 (37:27):
Why we're seeing underdogs lose so much this year and
favorites win is there's more opportunity for them to score
at a higher rate in bigger chunks, and it's impacting betting,
Like betters are not having a great year. You know,
favorites have gone seventy one percent straight up this year,
just winning straight up. That's the most profitable season since
(37:50):
two thy thirteen teams getting over sixty percent at the spread.
So we talk about fading the public. We want to
be contrarian because the public doesn't know anything. Teams getting
over sixty percent of the spread, covering fifty six percent
this year against the spread, home underdogs forty three percent
(38:11):
against the spread this year. That'll be the third least
profitable season since nineteen ninety. So for people like you,
people like me, I want to fade the public. I
want to bet home underdogs. That's usually where the value is.
It's been a rough go of it.
Speaker 1 (38:27):
Man Chad Melman, co host of The Favorites. Good luck, Buddy,
good luck to all of us. The volume
Host
Colin Cowherd
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