Colin is joined by John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out” to talk offseason football!
They start with the Bears and whether being chosen for “Hard Knocks” could be a detrimental distraction (3:30), whether Matt Eberflus survives the season (5:15) and make their projections for the Bears in their first season with Caleb Williams (8:30)
They both express their doubts that Aaron Rodgers will be able to survive the full 17 game season (11:30) and opine on what the huge contract for Jaylen Waddle means for Tua’s chances of signing an extension in Miami (20:00)
Colin explains why the Bills will be fine without Stefon Diggs (26:00) and they both debate whether the Russell Wilson experiment in Pittsburgh could end sooner rather than later (31:00)
Don’t forget to check back for part 2 of the conversation!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
All right, time to bring back the very popular John
Middlecoff podcast three and out former NFL scout before he
joins us, download the game Time app. You know, the
drill takes about ninety seconds. Lowest price is guaranteed on
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(00:27):
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You just take the guess work. Sometimes when you go
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(00:49):
it's a concert, it's a show, it's a comedy event.
Playoff basketball. We got an NBA Finals. You're going to
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(01:11):
always guarantee, all right. Former NFL scout John middlecough buddy
of mine called me today asked how I was doing.
I said, I had a podcast with John Middlecoffee said
that guy works, man, he's that guy is constantly working.
And I said, well, I haven't talked to him in
a month, so now's a good time, you know. I
(01:33):
had Denny Parkins on a real talented kid from Chicago,
and I said, I think the Bears are going to
be really good. I think the division offensively is a
really good division with really good coaching and really good
O lines. I said. The only thing that will screw
it up is a distraction, and then they get hard knocks.
I thought, oh god, all these couples that have cameras
in their houses, they all get divorced, you know, just
(01:54):
it's the end of times. How I mean, I guess
in the league nobody wants it. How are people now
used to it? Your sources are they used to it?
Speaker 1 (02:04):
Kind of now? I said this on the podcast last
week Forever right, you know, especially when the series started,
it was pretty intrusive. Humans weren't used to being followed
around by cameras in two thousand and two. Right now,
everywhere you go someone has a camera phone out talking
to themselves. I actually think these guys are pretty numb
(02:25):
to it. Think how long Caleb william has been used
to cameras pointed at him, press conferences, the Way his
Life is, podcast, you name it. I think it's never
It's less intrusive now than ever because of how numb
these guys are to cameras. Now, I think some of
the hoopla around it is not ideal. But let's face it,
(02:46):
colin the authenticity of the mid two thousands. You remember
when you would have the inside of the coaches and
gms talking about cutting players and this guy sucks and
we don't get that anymore. So that that got thrown out.
Really hard knocks isn't for me anymore, right, It just
really isn't. I think it's a pretty watered down version,
(03:08):
but I get it. It's popular, but I don't think
it phases the player specifically, maybe the coaches. That can
be a little unnerving having a camera look at you,
knowing that, but you get to control what comes out, right.
The teams have final cut. It's like state run media. Yeah,
so I don't think it's a big deal at all anymore.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
I think there's two stories in the NFL that are
real obvious ones, one of them being you know Matt Eberfluse,
and you know the downside to a Even if you
have a good defensive coach, they generally don't have as
good at connections to offensive coordinators as a McVeigh, you know,
as a Shanahan and Andy Reid, Sean Payton, those guys
(03:50):
are pretty dialed in. So that's the first thing. The
second thing is if you do hit on a really
good offensive coordinator and he's good, Ben Johnson's an outlier.
They take gigs and leave in two years and then
you have to hit another one. Sean McDermott hit on
Brian Dable. He didn't have success with the next hires.
And that's very common among defensive coaches. I mean, Mike
(04:11):
Tomlins hit on some, missed on some badly. Pete Carroll,
same thing. So when I look at eberflues Is, I
don't think he's a bad coach. I always say, if
you can, if you can show me that you know
your side of the ball. Well, the Bear's defense in
the last seven eight weeks was really good. They have
a good corner Montese sweat, but they don't have great
personnel up front, so I'm interested. I think Eber Flu's
(04:36):
changed his look like I think he kind of got.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
He got a stylist heat colored his hair. Yeah, he's got.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
He understands it's a big city, a lot of people watching.
I don't want to look like a fruntpy old defensive
coach if you had to wager he gets through the year.
Kind of where do you land on Eberflus?
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Yeah, I'm not as confident as some that they're going
to make the playoffs. I think they could be good
and win eight now games and Miss, I mean their
division is a mother Yeah, I mean Detroit's bringing everyone back,
including the coaches. I think everyone. You'd be crazy to
not be high on Green Bay if that quarterback continues
to play like this. Their new defensive coordinator, Jeff Affley.
So to me, if they miss the playoffs, you could
(05:16):
argue it's unfair Eberflu should get two years to kind
of show what he can do with this young team.
But that's not the way it's gonna work, right if
they go eight and if they go what would it
be eight to nine or nine to eight? And Miss,
I could just see because the pressure and the hype
on this team. But I'm not as confident they're going
to be a playoff team, and a big reason is
because their division help. If Minnesota is the worst team
(05:37):
in your division, I mean, that's not an easy team
to play, right. So they got an excellent coach, they
got a lot of firepower, and I understand the pushback
would be while the Bears could have easily beat the
Detroit Lions multiple times last year, I'm not saying they're bad.
It's just I think the hype on the quarterback big
picture totally behind it. He can be a high end player.
(05:59):
Most guys don't come into the league and look like CJ.
Strad right. I mean, it's usually there are some growing pains,
especially because the transition that he's going to have to have.
The way he played last year in college is not
going to translate. They're not going to have him do
that in theory. So and if he gets some back
some of those kind of hero ball habits, you're playing
(06:21):
NFL players. You're not playing Arizona anymore. And they were
struggling to beat Arizona last year. Now the Bears defense
is better. Offensively, they have firepower, but like you said,
I think the pressure on this coach. You don't make
the playoffs. You could have a really successful year. Yeah,
I think you can still get fired.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
Yeah, I think one. Even the good quarterbacks Peyton Manning
Andrew Luck threw a lot of picks early. That's just
that's the reality of it. I think the second thing,
the one thing that I think Caleb gets a break.
There's not really a great pass rush in that division.
In fact, the Bears at times didn't have a great one,
but Montez sweats great. Packers have been looking for a
(06:59):
great pass rush for a decade. Minnesota upgraded on some
b guys, not a guys. Detroit Hutchison's excellent about eleven
sacks last year, but their corners are weak. There's not
a dominating defense in this division. It's offensive coaches. So
I do think he's gonna come in. I mean, if
you head to the AFC North and you're getting Miles
(07:20):
Garrett in the Ravens culture, that's a whole different ballgame.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
I've said this justin Fields won seven. My guess is
Chicago wins eight, but looks significantly better.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
That's what I'm saying. And there's a chance he could
have a really good rookie season and be the third
best quarterback in his own division. If Jared Goff replicates
what he's been doing the last couple of years, he's
going to be a pro Bowl level guy. Jordan Love,
there's some there's a question mark there. We have an
eight game sample size of high level. But if he
carries that over, there's a decent chance. Kayleb Williams could
throw twenty four touchdowns in twelve pick yep. We all
(07:58):
view him like a transcending or the trajectory's pointing high
and go. He was the third best quarterback in his division.
And they're the third place team in the division. They
missed the playoffs because there's not unlimited amount of spots, right,
the Niners, the Rams, the Lions, the Packers. You start
doing the math. Atlanta should be better. The Saints were
nine to eight last year and they had a terrible offense.
(08:19):
Now they bring Kubiak's kid. The Eagles are gonna be good.
I mean, the Cowboys, even if they take a step
back from twelve, there'll be in that eight to nine range.
So it's just difficult.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
Well, if sports fans don't like to be wrong, and
there's a lot of people who are proven wrong on
Justin Fields, So just get ready for it. You have
to watch things you can't just your life can't be
just about the result, you know, you have to contextualize everything.
I don't think there's any question Caleb Williams is several
notches better than Justin Fields, like several notches better. I mean,
(08:51):
if you read the riding on the wall and we
both have enough sources, I mean, Caleb's not gonna have
problems find open receivers. That was a real issue for Justin.
There was like Zach Wilson, there are guys all over
the field open, he just couldn't find them. So people
are going to want to be right the Justin Fields fans.
But I think the league spoke when he went for
(09:12):
a six round pick, and I think very quickly you're
going to see the calebs just different.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
So for sure, and to me, the offensive weaponry that
they have for yeah, we've talked about this before. It's
a pretty easy landing zone for a young quarterback with
that many wide receivers.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
Here's a second thing. And I'm always trying to be
somewhat delicate with Aaron Rodgers because I'm viewed as anti Aaron.
But last year sixty quarterbacks played in the league. And
if I just said to you said, forget the teams
and the names, forty year old quarterback oft an achilles
surgery with a makeshift, old and really young offensive line
(09:50):
in a better conference, does that scream the quarterback plays
seventeen games? I think lost in this this Jets improvement
and people love their roster is Hey, they're a Breece
Hall injury from being a have to pass offense, have
to pass. And now the good news, they shouldn't be
in shootouts. Aaron shouldn't be forced to throw forty four
(10:12):
times a game. But they got one back. And I
tend to believe that championship teams are built when you
have your seven to eight best players all in their prime.
Like Detroit right now, Jared's in his prime. Hutchison moved
into it. That running back may be into it now,
Amaran Saint Brown, Panay Seouel, You're getting a lot of
(10:34):
now Laporta. They're all like moving into their prime. And
you start looking at Green Bay and it's like, I
guess Breece probably is. Garrett Wilson still raw a lot
of their defensive talent. Sauce Gardner's probably moving into it,
but they got a lot of guys that aren't there
or were never there. I PFF last week had the
(10:56):
Kansas City roster number two, and I was like, they're
bad at tackling. Don't I have a number one receiver.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
It's not the second best roster of the league. I
look at the Jets and I just keep saying, if
you gave me over under fifteen games on Aaron, I'd
bet the under. I'd be like fourteen.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
Did you see the clip last week of him scrambling
to his right, yeah, and kind of limping. Yeah. And
whether you tell me it's blister prevention or whatever, that
has to be pretty concerning because I will say this
last year at this time, and remember he dealt with
a calf a little in OTAs. But when you saw
him move around and he was healthy, he looks somewhat spry.
(11:33):
He's forty years old, and we have I would say,
pretty recent data of some legendary guys falling off a
cliff Matt Ryan for all different Matt Ryan, and I
would put him on the lower end of these players.
Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Ben or Roethlisberger most of my life.
When I was a kid in the nineties, guys got
to like thirty five in all pro sports and were done,
(11:54):
and then Brady kind of changed it. Lebron kind of
changed it. Most people fall off, Hey, Russell will and
that's what I'm kind of expecting. Yeah, and he's that's crazy.
But he's not quite as quick anymore. He's not quite
the athlete. Why he's thirty four, he's not twenty six.
Aaron's forty forty. And part of the reasons he's older, right,
(12:16):
because played several years in college red shirted, gray shirted
in the pros, didn't play for a while, so he's
actually older, even though he hasn't been playing technically as
long as some of those guys like Peyton Manning when
he was forty. But I think there's a very good
chance if you just base it up the history of sports,
it usually ends poorly. Usually don't do John Elway. This
one's for John, especially with the Jets, right, I mean,
(12:38):
their offensive coordinator is not any good. That's right, He's
just not. I mean, most teams in the league laugh
at that situation. And he's there for one reason and
one reason only, which I'm for the coach and the
quarterback having a good relationship. That's how you and your
producers have good relate Like there's it should be healthy
if the guy is good at his job. Josh McDaniel's
pay and Tom Brady made a lot of sense Kyle
(13:00):
in his quarterbacks for Sean McVay and Matt Stafford. This one,
this guy's just not viewed as good enough. And last
year when Aaron left, it was an abomination and these
stories because of the organization. What if they start slow now,
I actually think they have an opportunity. I don't think
their schedule is that hard early after it's.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
A weird schedule. Well, it's a lot of night games
in short weeks.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
They're just gonna be covered like the Lakers or the Yankees,
and we know things get weird with that franchise. And
even if it's all about football, none of the other
extracurricular stuff. If it's weird on offense, they're just gonna
point at the quarterback and the offensive coordinator, and then
the head coach is gonna be up there like saying,
who knows what? It could snowball into weirdness really quick
(13:42):
and like Aaron said, if I don't perform, we're all
getting fired. That's what's on the line here.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
Yeah, I think the schedule. I think it's it's viewed
as easy, and we have to be honest. Seven teams
that made the playoffs won't seven new ones.
Speaker 1 (13:57):
Will.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
You gotta be careful about look it, you know, looking
at last year. Yet, like I mean to me, the
Colts and Washington could be I mean, the Colts won
nine games with Gardner Minshew. I mean Anthony Richardson when
he was playing was jaw dropping.
Speaker 1 (14:13):
If they won eleven, they were a drop pass from
winning that division.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Last YEP and Washington I contend they're going to be
probably the most improved NFC team. So you start looking
at these teams. I did something the other day where
since the league expanded to fourteen playoff teams, six point
eight or seven new teams make it every year. And
(14:37):
I went through a list of teams. Some are obvious Atlanta,
big quarterback upgrade, Chargers, big coaching upgrade, Cincinnati Burrough plays.
I think Colts are really interesting. They're my surprise team
potentially in the league. I thought last week was really interesting.
(15:05):
So Miami signs Jayalen Waddle to a massive deal with
Tyreek Hill already signing a stupendous contract. Okay, what are
we saying here? So if Tua just signs the tenth
biggest contract, that's Josh Allen. Now, who'll get an extension
to raise? They're one hundred and five million guy, one
(15:28):
hundred and five million bucks. I think something close to
that on three dudes, all on offense. Not a pass rusher,
not a corner, not an interior defensive lineman, not an
offensive tackle, two receivers in a quarterback. So I almost wondered, was.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
Miami small guys too?
Speaker 2 (15:45):
Was Miami saying, listen, we're making our bet. We're just
not going to have This is our way of telling
you you're not getting fifty five million dollars. We're just
not going to give you that. Because I don't know.
I know Dak has market. I've talked to two gms
who have told.
Speaker 1 (16:03):
Me the Raiders would sign him yesterday yesterday.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
And I think very quickly, you know, if the Drake
May thing looks awful, they'd sniff at it. I mean
New Orleans with Derek Carr. I don't think they're in
lot Giants Daniel Jones. What is too his market?
Speaker 1 (16:21):
I don't think it would be that good. But he's
not my type player. But we also know when you
hit free agency at that position, people overspend. But who
is giving two one hundred and fifty million dollars on
the open market? Who is I can't see. Did you
see the picture of him at the charity event? He
looked like he was on ozembic. He looks tiny, He
(16:41):
looks really really skinny. Yeah. I'm not into small guys
who aren't great athletes with average arms. It's not really
my style. I mean, I like my quarterbacks to be
a little bigger, a little more mobile with howitzers. Yeah,
but because when you look at to in theory, he
should be this kind of mobile little guy. But he
is much closer to Jared Goff the way he plays.
(17:03):
I've said it over and over. Well, here's what Dak
does has proven. Now he's given me three straight years
of twelve wins. Do I want to give him fifty
plus million dollars? I do not. Is there an opportunity
that if he gets hot one postseason, they could win
a couple games like an Eli Manning situation. I don't
believe too as that capability. Yeah, one, what we witnessed
(17:24):
last year. I mean, if this was like the ND
five hundred, they were up like several laps, the Bills
were leaking oil. They were six and six. Then the
season ends, they win the division and they're hosting playoff
games and Miami has to go on the road. And
even when I saw Vech at the Combine, He's like,
I've been in the NFL a long time. That was
the coldest game I've ever stood on the field for
when he played the Chiefs. And we felt pretty good
(17:46):
about our chances because we knew that offense couldn't function
in the freezing court, right, But they wouldn't have had
a chance in a cold weather game against Baltimore, against
any of these teams. Yeah, So part of it is
the AFC. If you spend two, if you spend all
this money on to it, because at the end of
the they could dak. It hasn't gone well these last
three years. But beat a party. Beat sure. You know
a Jared Goff if he plays right, how is Tua
(18:08):
ever gonna outplay Patrick mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Herbert Now with Harbaugh,
Josh Allen it's not happening. It doesn't mean he's not
a solid NFL starter. But once you start talking about
the money, this is not baseball. You don't have an
unlimited on of cap space. Tyreek Hill, he's one of
the greatest players I've ever seen. No problem investing Jayleen Wattle.
You draft him high. He's a productive player. I get
(18:29):
it too, Like, why can't we just play this out?
Why does every quarterback have to get in it? Jared
Goff proved last year. He went toe to toe with
Matt Stafford in the playoff game. He won the second
playoff game against Baker Mayfield. He was great against the
forty nine ers, Like they have tangible evidence now in
the playoffs, let alone the regular season now for a
year and a half, where's that evidence against Tua? Like, yeah,
he plays well in October. Well, you're in the AFC
(18:51):
where most of these teams come November and December. I
looked at their schedule whenever the schedules came out, they
have three or four games post You know, Hall of
get a little cold, Colin get a little cold. What
if you can't do it this year, If you can't
win the division and host a playoff game, which they
would have to do to have success in the playoffs
because of their climate. What's the point of extending them
(19:12):
just to say you have a quarterback?
Speaker 2 (19:13):
Well, and last year, you know, I've said this. Last
year in the AFC, it was the year Aaron gets hurt,
Bill starts slowly, Burrow gets hurt, Deshaun and Cleveland are
a head scratching mess. Anthony Richards had hurt. C J.
Stroud's only a rookie. Trevor law ran and Staley with
(19:35):
the Chargers, and Trevor Lawrence injured every part of his
lower Torso like in the last eight weeks, it was
the year and they didn't do it. So Aaron's back,
Jets have another draft. Buffalo's not starting six and six.
You know, let me let me speak in the buffle.
I'm gonna throw a theory at you that and this
(19:56):
is especially true with young ger quarterbacks. Four years and
then is that I've said this, something can be really
important in your life, but overrated. A big house. A
house is nice. A bigger house is not necessarily bigger mortgage,
more cleaning, bigger yard, like you. My wife and I
(20:18):
talk about this like locations. So much more important than
size of house. Like we'll just just give us a
good location. We'll add a bedroom. We'll figure out and make,
you know, create another place to go to the bathroom.
Speaker 1 (20:30):
Use the same three rooms every day. That's right. You
know there's a lot of rooms don't even touch.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
So I used to call wide receivers icing on the cake,
never the cake. The cake was a left tackle, the
pass rusher, the quarterback, the head coach. And then I
had to about six seven years ago acknowledge the rules
have changed. They're part of the cake. But I don't
necessarily love dominant number one receivers. Patriots with Randy Moss
was a great example where you almost felt like you
(20:55):
had to throw to him, and don't. I don't think
losing Stefan Diggs. If the kid out of Florida State
can play, they have two excellent tight ends. They finally
found a running back, Josh Is in his athletic prime.
I think I think we're in a little bit of
a wide receiver bubble thirty million for a receiver if
(21:16):
you don't have the quarterback. We've always said quarterbacks make
the rice. Even Larry Fitzgerald had off years without great
quarterbacks Carson Palmer big year, Kurt Warner big year. So
I look at Buffalo and I think there's this feeling that,
you know, watch out, it's a free fall. I don't
feel like it. I really don't.
Speaker 1 (21:36):
I think they're gonna be really good. I mean it's
part of my two of you know, where I land
on that situation is like, I don't think you're any
closer to catching them. And it starts with Josh Allen.
When's the last time he had a wide receiver like
the guy they just draftedim from Florida State, A big body,
high point guy. He's a basketball player. So Stefan Diggs won.
(21:57):
Like a lot of wide receivers, their person can change
on a daily basis, and it was clearly driving them nuts.
And then the play was started to like a lot
of older players he's played at high level, was no
longer at the same level. So it was probably a
pretty easy move for them to make. And then they
get the wide receiver one that is just going to
translate to cold weather, right, He's not predicated on speed,
(22:21):
So I'm with you. I mean, they've won this division
four straight years. They're the new Patriots in the division
in terms of the dominance, obviously not the same playoff success.
The other thing is when you have an all time
great quarterback. I mean that's what I think. Josh Allen
is going to go down as one of the great
quarterbacks of my life. They make wide receivers ideally, you
would love to have Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne like
(22:42):
Peyton benefited. He was a great player, and they also
did a great job because Bill Polly is an all
time great exec. Tom Brady won a lot of games
with Julian Edelmans and Danny Ammadolas, So if you can
find a sweet spot somewhere in the middle, you don't
need to have. Look at the Packers. I love Devontae Adams.
I'd want them on my team every day of the week.
If they get rid of him, he goes to the Raiders.
They haven't won at all. He's still a great player,
(23:04):
but now he's kind of useless because their quarterback situation sucks.
In the Packers boom last year. Kick the shit out
of the Packer or the Cowboys in the playoff game,
and it looks like all we talk about is they
have one of the best young wide receiver rooms in
the league. So I think when I saw the story
about would they trade Justin Jefferson right the Minnesota Vikings, Well,
if i'd get two ones and two twos and allocate
(23:26):
my resources differently, i'd be a no brainer than paying him.
And we all acknowledge one of the great non quarterbacks
in the NFL. But this is it's a pretty easy
math equations. Especially I already got Jordan Addison, I got
an offensive coach, Like, yeah, I wouldn't just trade him
for a second round pick. But if you're gonna give
me three ones, here, take them. You give them the contract.
(23:47):
But I think there's a reason a lot of smart
teams now go that's not worth it to us giving
up all these ones and then having to allocate the resources.
So it's we've kind of seen less and less of
those massive trades since the DeVante and the Tyreek, because
why don't I just draft a guy in the twenties
like the Baltimore Ravens last year. I get Zave Flowers
and he's on a cost controlled contract that pays him
(24:10):
three or four million dollars a year, right, and I
get to keep my assets.
Speaker 2 (24:14):
Yeah, I mean, listen, if you if you look at
the greatest example is Kansas City that took a touchdown
machine in Tyreek Hill, and they have won back to
back Super Bowls without him, and Miami's going no further
with him. And you know, the other thing you have
to acknowledge is football is different in December and January.
You just don't throw the ball as deep as often.
You just don't, you know, you.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
Don't throw the ball deep that often in general, Like
there aren't go routes every other series, Right, That's not
the way football, even though it kind of feels that way.
A lot of explosive plays nowadays, right, happen around the
line of scrimmage because you have so many guys with
so much speed. Break Deebo Samuels had a ton of
explosive plays over the years. I would imagine the majority
of them have come ten yards an inn from where
(24:56):
the ball is snapped.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
The you know I was. The Pittsburgh Steelers are at
a really interesting crossroads. So Mike tom Mike Tomlin can
get a little prickly when his future is discussed, but
he has not beaten an elite quarterback in the playoff
game in forever. And that's just the reality.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
He hasn't want a playoff game in almost a decade. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
So, and it's interesting they're not paying anything for Russell. Russell,
you know, any chance he gets to say, boy, I'd
love to see packages for Justin Fields at wide receiver.
It's like, I mean, that's so transparent.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
That's kind of weird.
Speaker 2 (25:32):
You know, they're all talking about and Justin doesn't want
any part of that, and he shouldn't want any part
of it. But I did have somebody that I trust
kind of that reports on the Steelers say, Russell, the
Pittsburgh's going to be.
Speaker 1 (25:47):
It's very.
Speaker 2 (25:50):
That culture there is very grinder oriented. Even your stars.
Big Ben was kind of a small town guy. TJ.
Watt Midwestern guy. You know, the lavian bells come in
and very quickly they kind of feel disconnected from it.
It's it's a grinder operation. And I'm not saying Russell
doesn't grind and work hard, but he's got a brand.
(26:13):
He's just different. I mean, it's just I mean, call
it what you want. Nobody gets called out in this
league as much as Russell, and somebody that has good
connective tissue to the Steelers said, there's already been a
couple of situations where you know he's he's Russ and
these are the Steelers. It's ay and I say this,
(26:34):
Green Bay and Pittsburgh have a very lunch pale quality. Now,
the Steelers usually have elite defensive personnel. Packers are better
on the offensive side in terms of efficiency. Packers have
also had offensive coaches. But if you had to do
crystal ball on Russell Wilson, what it looks like end
of the year's schedule's awful. But if you had to
(26:54):
have a crystal ball on Russell Wilson, another quarterback who
almost inexplicably got worse fast without an injury, just got
worse fast nearing thirty five, what is your crystal ball
on Pittsburgh?
Speaker 1 (27:07):
If I had to go over under on Justin Field's
first start with the Steelers, it'd probably be around five
and a half. I think he's in and I think
he's in early. The other thing is, you know, Russell
has to ingratiate himself. When you think of Mike Tommin
and the Steelers, I think TJ. Watt, Cam Hayward, make
of Fitzpatrick. I mean, those guys in Mike are kind
of on the same page, right I mean they feel
(27:28):
like part of the operation. Do they feel like Russell
Wilson guys? I mean when you think do you think TJ.
Watt and MIKEA. Fitzpatrick. You never say the word brand.
You think ass kickers and football players. And I just
can't imagine. I just don't think he's good enough. And
the margin Ferrera in this conference dinking and dunking. You
could argue if it starts slow, like what if they're
(27:50):
owing to and it's just like what are we doing on?
It might not even get to five and a half
because what what whorst is equity with the operation? Denver what'nything?
Pretty heavily paying them anything? They're paying them less than
a million dollars. Honestly, if it got really what, you
could cut them and you wouldn't even think twice. And
that happens to a lot of NFL players. Once you
start getting the team three and four, your equity with
(28:11):
the operation disappears. And it's a performance based business, so
no one's gonna want to hear about anything except touchdown passes.
And I don't know, I mean the guy we've seen
the last couple of years, I don't know if his
confidence is gone. I don't know if, but he's been
a pretty marginal player now for three straight years because
that last year in Seattle and then everything that happened
in the last two years in Denver. I also think,
(28:33):
if you're the fan bases in the NFL, sneaky have
a lot of juice because that's kind of where the owners,
you know, they listen to radio that they so you
think Pittsburgh if all of a sudden listen, I don't know.
I would bet justin Fields he's probably closer to what
we've seen his whole career, but we've also seen guys
improve with that skill set when they get with the
(28:54):
right coordinator. Arthur Smith resurrected Ryan Tannehill. If I'm a
fan and we're zeroing too, like I not watching Russell Wilson, Well,
I've seen this from Afar putting the young kid, and
let's just see if we could figure something out with
this guy that has a lot of physical tools. Now
quarterbacks at about a lot more than run fast and
throwing hard. His pocket presence has been a major question mark.
(29:16):
But what did Arthur Smith do with Ryan tannel They
ran the ball. He gave him a lot of easy
looks kept it pretty simple. Now, I don't think they
really have Derrick Henry, you know, Najee Harris, Okay, back
Jalen Warred pretty explosive, but if their defense is good.
You know, honestly, if I was a Steeler fan, I
just want to see Justin fields right out. I wouldn't
even want to see Russell Wilson. I just like, can
we resurrect this guy?
Speaker 2 (29:37):
Well, it's interesting because Arthur Smith, his history is a
lot of throws over the middle of the field, and
that's not what Russell does. That's just not it.
Speaker 1 (29:45):
No, he throws deep go routes.
Speaker 2 (29:47):
See that's yeah, because you know his size, he can struggle.
Kyler Murray admits this. Tua acknowledges this. Sometimes I struggle
to see over the line. So of all, I've been
doing this now thirty years of talk sports, and you know,
I do a segment every Monday. Colin right, Colin wrong.
I have big opinions miss all the time. Russell. I
(30:07):
don't ever remember a player in my life at that
position that I was sure he was great, and then
after a year I'm pretty sure he's just B minus
and there's no injury he's not to thirty six. He
works really hard, Like it's a really hard ask. You
(30:33):
start trying to figure out. You say, well, he didn't
get along. Seattley wasn't beloved, so no injury, He's still elusive.
It's like he put wede On in the wrong spot.
He got a little thick. I find Russell to be
a complete historic outlier, like Matt Ryan, never moved well,
(30:53):
didn't have a big arm, kind of thin, and it
felt like the game quickly passed him by. It got
very mobile and athletic, and he wasn't you know, there
are players at the end. Philip Rivers was never athletic.
He got like the most unathletic quarterback in the league.
Eli Manning just felt like he was out of gas. Russell,
You're like last year in Seattle, he's a wizard and
(31:16):
then he's bad and then Peyton makes him okay, And
I'm like, I don't think he sees the field. I
don't think he sees guys, and I from people close
and around Sean like that's what the film said. He
just didn't see open guys.
Speaker 1 (31:32):
I'll give you another guy that falls into that category. Now,
he had a bunch off the field stuff, But Deshaun
Watson was much more of kind of a scramble to
throw ad lib guy, and when it was on it
looked spectacular. But over the course of years you have
to play from within the pocket. Now he missed time
because of the massage therapist, he's been injured, but he
has looked like a shell of himself in Cleveland. Yeah,
(31:52):
and it's not like he's throwing to me and you.
I mean, they have a lot of talent on the
team and he looks like a guy and he's way
younger than Russell. You're like, what the hell is this? Yeah,
and that that is?
Speaker 2 (32:01):
That is And we love his coach.
Speaker 1 (32:04):
For sure. I mean we love his team. Joe Flacco
gets in there, they boom, they start rattling off wins.
I mean, they're they're loaded. And that's one. I know
a lot of people in the NFL are like you know,
if you really watch them in Houston, it's a lot
of kind of running outside the tackles and making stuff happen,
which is awesome to watch when you're sitting on your couch.
No one in my life watching football did that better
(32:25):
Russell in his prime, But like over and over and over. Peyton,
Tom Aaron, it's winning. Think about some of the solid cousins.
Why is he had success? Dak Goff win in the
pocket is how you do it on a weekly basis,
especially nowadays you watch the combine. How many of these
d linemen are running four sevens and four as crazy,
So you start scrambling around. You don't get as much
(32:47):
space anymore because these guys can run you down. The
guy the Eagles draft last year, Jalen Carter, is like
three hundred and twenty pounds and can run faster than
some like running backs. So the athleticism, and let's face it,
the other thing is the offensive linemen that have come
into the league over the last four or five years.
The supply and demand relative to the high defensive linemen,
it's kind of it hasn't been there. So the offensive lineman,
(33:09):
a lot of these guys get aren't as good as
they used to be. And we know because of college
football is not quite the same the way that they
coach with the spread offenses, and these defensive linemen are
coming for you and they can catch you unless you're
Kyler Murray and most obviously you know Russell definitely no
longer is as fast and even Deshaun Watson, you watch him,
he doesn't play fast anymore. The volume.
Speaker 2 (33:31):
Thanks for listening to part one of the conversation. Don't
forget to check back for part two.
Speaker 1 (33:36):
Hey everyone, it's Jason Tipp, host of Hoops Tonight. Make
sure you check us out live after games on the
Hoops Tonight YouTube channel as we provide instant reaction and
analysis of all the big NBA playoff games. Again, that's
the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel and wherever you get your podcasts.
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
All right, time to bring back the very popular John
Middlecoff podcast three and out former NFL scout before he
joins us, download the game Time app. You know, the
drill takes about ninety seconds. Lowest price is guaranteed on
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put in the code Colin Cli, and you get up
(00:27):
to twenty dollars off your first purchase. Makes playoff tickets,
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You just take the guess work. Sometimes when you go
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(00:49):
it's a concert, it's a show, it's a comedy event.
Playoff basketball. We got an NBA Finals. You're going to
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Download game Time two day last minute tickets. Lowest prices
(01:11):
always guarantee, all right. Former NFL scout John middlecough buddy
of mine called me today asked how I was doing.
I said, I had a podcast with John Middlecoffee said
that guy works, man, he's that guy is constantly working.
And I said, well, I haven't talked to him in
a month, so now's a good time, you know. I
(01:33):
had Denny Parkins on a real talented kid from Chicago,
and I said, I think the Bears are going to
be really good. I think the division offensively is a
really good division with really good coaching and really good
O lines. I said. The only thing that will screw
it up is a distraction, and then they get hard knocks.
I thought, oh god, all these couples that have cameras
in their houses, they all get divorced, you know, just
(01:54):
it's the end of times. How I mean, I guess
in the league nobody wants it. How are people now
used to it? Your sources are they used to it?
Speaker 1 (02:04):
Kind of now? I said this on the podcast last
week Forever right, you know, especially when the series started,
it was pretty intrusive. Humans weren't used to being followed
around by cameras in two thousand and two. Right now,
everywhere you go someone has a camera phone out talking
to themselves. I actually think these guys are pretty numb
(02:25):
to it. Think how long Caleb william has been used
to cameras pointed at him, press conferences, the Way his
Life is, podcast, you name it. I think it's never
It's less intrusive now than ever because of how numb
these guys are to cameras. Now, I think some of
the hoopla around it is not ideal. But let's face it,
(02:46):
colin the authenticity of the mid two thousands. You remember
when you would have the inside of the coaches and
gms talking about cutting players and this guy sucks and
we don't get that anymore. So that that got thrown out.
Really hard knocks isn't for me anymore, right, It just
really isn't. I think it's a pretty watered down version,
(03:08):
but I get it. It's popular, but I don't think
it phases the player specifically, maybe the coaches. That can
be a little unnerving having a camera look at you,
knowing that, but you get to control what comes out, right.
The teams have final cut. It's like state run media. Yeah,
so I don't think it's a big deal at all anymore.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
I think there's two stories in the NFL that are
real obvious ones, one of them being you know Matt Eberfluse,
and you know the downside to a Even if you
have a good defensive coach, they generally don't have as
good at connections to offensive coordinators as a McVeigh, you know,
as a Shanahan and Andy Reid, Sean Payton, those guys
(03:50):
are pretty dialed in. So that's the first thing. The
second thing is if you do hit on a really
good offensive coordinator and he's good, Ben Johnson's an outlier.
They take gigs and leave in two years and then
you have to hit another one. Sean McDermott hit on
Brian Dable. He didn't have success with the next hires.
And that's very common among defensive coaches. I mean, Mike
(04:11):
Tomlins hit on some, missed on some badly. Pete Carroll,
same thing. So when I look at eberflues Is, I
don't think he's a bad coach. I always say, if
you can, if you can show me that you know
your side of the ball. Well, the Bear's defense in
the last seven eight weeks was really good. They have
a good corner Montese sweat, but they don't have great
personnel up front, so I'm interested. I think Eber Flu's
(04:36):
changed his look like I think he kind of got.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
He got a stylist heat colored his hair. Yeah, he's got.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
He understands it's a big city, a lot of people watching.
I don't want to look like a fruntpy old defensive
coach if you had to wager he gets through the year.
Kind of where do you land on Eberflus?
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Yeah, I'm not as confident as some that they're going
to make the playoffs. I think they could be good
and win eight now games and Miss, I mean their
division is a mother Yeah, I mean Detroit's bringing everyone back,
including the coaches. I think everyone. You'd be crazy to
not be high on Green Bay if that quarterback continues
to play like this. Their new defensive coordinator, Jeff Affley.
So to me, if they miss the playoffs, you could
(05:16):
argue it's unfair Eberflu should get two years to kind
of show what he can do with this young team.
But that's not the way it's gonna work, right if
they go eight and if they go what would it
be eight to nine or nine to eight? And Miss,
I could just see because the pressure and the hype
on this team. But I'm not as confident they're going
to be a playoff team, and a big reason is
because their division help. If Minnesota is the worst team
(05:37):
in your division, I mean, that's not an easy team
to play, right. So they got an excellent coach, they
got a lot of firepower, and I understand the pushback
would be while the Bears could have easily beat the
Detroit Lions multiple times last year, I'm not saying they're bad.
It's just I think the hype on the quarterback big
picture totally behind it. He can be a high end player.
(05:59):
Most guys don't come into the league and look like CJ.
Strad right. I mean, it's usually there are some growing pains,
especially because the transition that he's going to have to have.
The way he played last year in college is not
going to translate. They're not going to have him do
that in theory. So and if he gets some back
some of those kind of hero ball habits, you're playing
(06:21):
NFL players. You're not playing Arizona anymore. And they were
struggling to beat Arizona last year. Now the Bears defense
is better. Offensively, they have firepower, but like you said,
I think the pressure on this coach. You don't make
the playoffs. You could have a really successful year. Yeah,
I think you can still get fired.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
Yeah, I think one. Even the good quarterbacks Peyton Manning
Andrew Luck threw a lot of picks early. That's just
that's the reality of it. I think the second thing,
the one thing that I think Caleb gets a break.
There's not really a great pass rush in that division.
In fact, the Bears at times didn't have a great one,
but Montez sweats great. Packers have been looking for a
(06:59):
great pass rush for a decade. Minnesota upgraded on some
b guys, not a guys. Detroit Hutchison's excellent about eleven
sacks last year, but their corners are weak. There's not
a dominating defense in this division. It's offensive coaches. So
I do think he's gonna come in. I mean, if
you head to the AFC North and you're getting Miles
(07:20):
Garrett in the Ravens culture, that's a whole different ballgame.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
I've said this justin Fields won seven. My guess is
Chicago wins eight, but looks significantly better.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
That's what I'm saying. And there's a chance he could
have a really good rookie season and be the third
best quarterback in his own division. If Jared Goff replicates
what he's been doing the last couple of years, he's
going to be a pro Bowl level guy. Jordan Love,
there's some there's a question mark there. We have an
eight game sample size of high level. But if he
carries that over, there's a decent chance. Kayleb Williams could
throw twenty four touchdowns in twelve pick yep. We all
(07:58):
view him like a transcending or the trajectory's pointing high
and go. He was the third best quarterback in his division.
And they're the third place team in the division. They
missed the playoffs because there's not unlimited amount of spots, right,
the Niners, the Rams, the Lions, the Packers. You start
doing the math. Atlanta should be better. The Saints were
nine to eight last year and they had a terrible offense.
(08:19):
Now they bring Kubiak's kid. The Eagles are gonna be good.
I mean, the Cowboys, even if they take a step
back from twelve, there'll be in that eight to nine range.
So it's just difficult.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
Well, if sports fans don't like to be wrong, and
there's a lot of people who are proven wrong on
Justin Fields, So just get ready for it. You have
to watch things you can't just your life can't be
just about the result, you know, you have to contextualize everything.
I don't think there's any question Caleb Williams is several
notches better than Justin Fields, like several notches better. I mean,
(08:51):
if you read the riding on the wall and we
both have enough sources, I mean, Caleb's not gonna have
problems find open receivers. That was a real issue for Justin.
There was like Zach Wilson, there are guys all over
the field open, he just couldn't find them. So people
are going to want to be right the Justin Fields fans.
But I think the league spoke when he went for
(09:12):
a six round pick, and I think very quickly you're
going to see the calebs just different.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
So for sure, and to me, the offensive weaponry that
they have for yeah, we've talked about this before. It's
a pretty easy landing zone for a young quarterback with
that many wide receivers.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
Here's a second thing. And I'm always trying to be
somewhat delicate with Aaron Rodgers because I'm viewed as anti Aaron.
But last year sixty quarterbacks played in the league. And
if I just said to you said, forget the teams
and the names, forty year old quarterback oft an achilles
surgery with a makeshift, old and really young offensive line
(09:50):
in a better conference, does that scream the quarterback plays
seventeen games? I think lost in this this Jets improvement
and people love their roster is Hey, they're a Breece
Hall injury from being a have to pass offense, have
to pass. And now the good news, they shouldn't be
in shootouts. Aaron shouldn't be forced to throw forty four
(10:12):
times a game. But they got one back. And I
tend to believe that championship teams are built when you
have your seven to eight best players all in their prime.
Like Detroit right now, Jared's in his prime. Hutchison moved
into it. That running back may be into it now,
Amaran Saint Brown, Panay Seouel, You're getting a lot of
(10:34):
now Laporta. They're all like moving into their prime. And
you start looking at Green Bay and it's like, I
guess Breece probably is. Garrett Wilson still raw a lot
of their defensive talent. Sauce Gardner's probably moving into it,
but they got a lot of guys that aren't there
or were never there. I PFF last week had the
(10:56):
Kansas City roster number two, and I was like, they're
bad at tackling. Don't I have a number one receiver.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
It's not the second best roster of the league. I
look at the Jets and I just keep saying, if
you gave me over under fifteen games on Aaron, I'd
bet the under. I'd be like fourteen.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
Did you see the clip last week of him scrambling
to his right, yeah, and kind of limping. Yeah. And
whether you tell me it's blister prevention or whatever, that
has to be pretty concerning because I will say this
last year at this time, and remember he dealt with
a calf a little in OTAs. But when you saw
him move around and he was healthy, he looks somewhat spry.
(11:33):
He's forty years old, and we have I would say,
pretty recent data of some legendary guys falling off a
cliff Matt Ryan for all different Matt Ryan, and I
would put him on the lower end of these players.
Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Ben or Roethlisberger most of my life.
When I was a kid in the nineties, guys got
to like thirty five in all pro sports and were done,
(11:54):
and then Brady kind of changed it. Lebron kind of
changed it. Most people fall off, Hey, Russell will and
that's what I'm kind of expecting. Yeah, and he's that's crazy.
But he's not quite as quick anymore. He's not quite
the athlete. Why he's thirty four, he's not twenty six.
Aaron's forty forty. And part of the reasons he's older, right,
(12:16):
because played several years in college red shirted, gray shirted
in the pros, didn't play for a while, so he's
actually older, even though he hasn't been playing technically as
long as some of those guys like Peyton Manning when
he was forty. But I think there's a very good
chance if you just base it up the history of sports,
it usually ends poorly. Usually don't do John Elway. This
one's for John, especially with the Jets, right, I mean,
(12:38):
their offensive coordinator is not any good. That's right, He's
just not. I mean, most teams in the league laugh
at that situation. And he's there for one reason and
one reason only, which I'm for the coach and the
quarterback having a good relationship. That's how you and your
producers have good relate Like there's it should be healthy
if the guy is good at his job. Josh McDaniel's
pay and Tom Brady made a lot of sense Kyle
(13:00):
in his quarterbacks for Sean McVay and Matt Stafford. This one,
this guy's just not viewed as good enough. And last
year when Aaron left, it was an abomination and these
stories because of the organization. What if they start slow now,
I actually think they have an opportunity. I don't think
their schedule is that hard early after it's.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
A weird schedule. Well, it's a lot of night games
in short weeks.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
They're just gonna be covered like the Lakers or the Yankees,
and we know things get weird with that franchise. And
even if it's all about football, none of the other
extracurricular stuff. If it's weird on offense, they're just gonna
point at the quarterback and the offensive coordinator, and then
the head coach is gonna be up there like saying,
who knows what? It could snowball into weirdness really quick
(13:42):
and like Aaron said, if I don't perform, we're all
getting fired. That's what's on the line here.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
Yeah, I think the schedule. I think it's it's viewed
as easy, and we have to be honest. Seven teams
that made the playoffs won't seven new ones.
Speaker 1 (13:57):
Will.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
You gotta be careful about look it, you know, looking
at last year. Yet, like I mean to me, the
Colts and Washington could be I mean, the Colts won
nine games with Gardner Minshew. I mean Anthony Richardson when
he was playing was jaw dropping.
Speaker 1 (14:13):
If they won eleven, they were a drop pass from
winning that division.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Last YEP and Washington I contend they're going to be
probably the most improved NFC team. So you start looking
at these teams. I did something the other day where
since the league expanded to fourteen playoff teams, six point
eight or seven new teams make it every year. And
(14:37):
I went through a list of teams. Some are obvious Atlanta,
big quarterback upgrade, Chargers, big coaching upgrade, Cincinnati Burrough plays.
I think Colts are really interesting. They're my surprise team
potentially in the league. I thought last week was really interesting.
(15:05):
So Miami signs Jayalen Waddle to a massive deal with
Tyreek Hill already signing a stupendous contract. Okay, what are
we saying here? So if Tua just signs the tenth
biggest contract, that's Josh Allen. Now, who'll get an extension
to raise? They're one hundred and five million guy, one
(15:28):
hundred and five million bucks. I think something close to
that on three dudes, all on offense. Not a pass rusher,
not a corner, not an interior defensive lineman, not an
offensive tackle, two receivers in a quarterback. So I almost wondered, was.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
Miami small guys too?
Speaker 2 (15:45):
Was Miami saying, listen, we're making our bet. We're just
not going to have This is our way of telling
you you're not getting fifty five million dollars. We're just
not going to give you that. Because I don't know.
I know Dak has market. I've talked to two gms
who have told.
Speaker 1 (16:03):
Me the Raiders would sign him yesterday yesterday.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
And I think very quickly, you know, if the Drake
May thing looks awful, they'd sniff at it. I mean
New Orleans with Derek Carr. I don't think they're in
lot Giants Daniel Jones. What is too his market?
Speaker 1 (16:21):
I don't think it would be that good. But he's
not my type player. But we also know when you
hit free agency at that position, people overspend. But who
is giving two one hundred and fifty million dollars on
the open market? Who is I can't see. Did you
see the picture of him at the charity event? He
looked like he was on ozembic. He looks tiny, He
(16:41):
looks really really skinny. Yeah. I'm not into small guys
who aren't great athletes with average arms. It's not really
my style. I mean, I like my quarterbacks to be
a little bigger, a little more mobile with howitzers. Yeah,
but because when you look at to in theory, he
should be this kind of mobile little guy. But he
is much closer to Jared Goff the way he plays.
(17:03):
I've said it over and over. Well, here's what Dak
does has proven. Now he's given me three straight years
of twelve wins. Do I want to give him fifty
plus million dollars? I do not. Is there an opportunity
that if he gets hot one postseason, they could win
a couple games like an Eli Manning situation. I don't
believe too as that capability. Yeah, one, what we witnessed
(17:24):
last year. I mean, if this was like the ND
five hundred, they were up like several laps, the Bills
were leaking oil. They were six and six. Then the
season ends, they win the division and they're hosting playoff
games and Miami has to go on the road. And
even when I saw Vech at the Combine, He's like,
I've been in the NFL a long time. That was
the coldest game I've ever stood on the field for
when he played the Chiefs. And we felt pretty good
(17:46):
about our chances because we knew that offense couldn't function
in the freezing court, right, But they wouldn't have had
a chance in a cold weather game against Baltimore, against
any of these teams. Yeah, So part of it is
the AFC. If you spend two, if you spend all
this money on to it, because at the end of
the they could dak. It hasn't gone well these last
three years. But beat a party. Beat sure. You know
a Jared Goff if he plays right, how is Tua
(18:08):
ever gonna outplay Patrick mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Herbert Now with Harbaugh,
Josh Allen it's not happening. It doesn't mean he's not
a solid NFL starter. But once you start talking about
the money, this is not baseball. You don't have an
unlimited on of cap space. Tyreek Hill, he's one of
the greatest players I've ever seen. No problem investing Jayleen Wattle.
You draft him high. He's a productive player. I get
(18:29):
it too, Like, why can't we just play this out?
Why does every quarterback have to get in it? Jared
Goff proved last year. He went toe to toe with
Matt Stafford in the playoff game. He won the second
playoff game against Baker Mayfield. He was great against the
forty nine ers, Like they have tangible evidence now in
the playoffs, let alone the regular season now for a
year and a half, where's that evidence against Tua? Like, yeah,
he plays well in October. Well, you're in the AFC
(18:51):
where most of these teams come November and December. I
looked at their schedule whenever the schedules came out, they
have three or four games post You know, Hall of
get a little cold, Colin get a little cold. What
if you can't do it this year, If you can't
win the division and host a playoff game, which they
would have to do to have success in the playoffs
because of their climate. What's the point of extending them
(19:12):
just to say you have a quarterback?
Speaker 2 (19:13):
Well, and last year, you know, I've said this. Last
year in the AFC, it was the year Aaron gets hurt,
Bill starts slowly, Burrow gets hurt, Deshaun and Cleveland are
a head scratching mess. Anthony Richards had hurt. C J.
Stroud's only a rookie. Trevor law ran and Staley with
(19:35):
the Chargers, and Trevor Lawrence injured every part of his
lower Torso like in the last eight weeks, it was
the year and they didn't do it. So Aaron's back,
Jets have another draft. Buffalo's not starting six and six.
You know, let me let me speak in the buffle.
I'm gonna throw a theory at you that and this
(19:56):
is especially true with young ger quarterbacks. Four years and
then is that I've said this, something can be really
important in your life, but overrated. A big house. A
house is nice. A bigger house is not necessarily bigger mortgage,
more cleaning, bigger yard, like you. My wife and I
(20:18):
talk about this like locations. So much more important than
size of house. Like we'll just just give us a
good location. We'll add a bedroom. We'll figure out and make,
you know, create another place to go to the bathroom.
Speaker 1 (20:30):
Use the same three rooms every day. That's right. You
know there's a lot of rooms don't even touch.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
So I used to call wide receivers icing on the cake,
never the cake. The cake was a left tackle, the
pass rusher, the quarterback, the head coach. And then I
had to about six seven years ago acknowledge the rules
have changed. They're part of the cake. But I don't
necessarily love dominant number one receivers. Patriots with Randy Moss
was a great example where you almost felt like you
(20:55):
had to throw to him, and don't. I don't think
losing Stefan Diggs. If the kid out of Florida State
can play, they have two excellent tight ends. They finally
found a running back, Josh Is in his athletic prime.
I think I think we're in a little bit of
a wide receiver bubble thirty million for a receiver if
(21:16):
you don't have the quarterback. We've always said quarterbacks make
the rice. Even Larry Fitzgerald had off years without great
quarterbacks Carson Palmer big year, Kurt Warner big year. So
I look at Buffalo and I think there's this feeling that,
you know, watch out, it's a free fall. I don't
feel like it. I really don't.
Speaker 1 (21:36):
I think they're gonna be really good. I mean it's
part of my two of you know, where I land
on that situation is like, I don't think you're any
closer to catching them. And it starts with Josh Allen.
When's the last time he had a wide receiver like
the guy they just draftedim from Florida State, A big body,
high point guy. He's a basketball player. So Stefan Diggs won.
(21:57):
Like a lot of wide receivers, their person can change
on a daily basis, and it was clearly driving them nuts.
And then the play was started to like a lot
of older players he's played at high level, was no
longer at the same level. So it was probably a
pretty easy move for them to make. And then they
get the wide receiver one that is just going to
translate to cold weather, right, He's not predicated on speed,
(22:21):
So I'm with you. I mean, they've won this division
four straight years. They're the new Patriots in the division
in terms of the dominance, obviously not the same playoff success.
The other thing is when you have an all time
great quarterback. I mean that's what I think. Josh Allen
is going to go down as one of the great
quarterbacks of my life. They make wide receivers ideally, you
would love to have Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne like
(22:42):
Peyton benefited. He was a great player, and they also
did a great job because Bill Polly is an all
time great exec. Tom Brady won a lot of games
with Julian Edelmans and Danny Ammadolas, So if you can
find a sweet spot somewhere in the middle, you don't
need to have. Look at the Packers. I love Devontae Adams.
I'd want them on my team every day of the week.
If they get rid of him, he goes to the Raiders.
They haven't won at all. He's still a great player,
(23:04):
but now he's kind of useless because their quarterback situation sucks.
In the Packers boom last year. Kick the shit out
of the Packer or the Cowboys in the playoff game,
and it looks like all we talk about is they
have one of the best young wide receiver rooms in
the league. So I think when I saw the story
about would they trade Justin Jefferson right the Minnesota Vikings, Well,
if i'd get two ones and two twos and allocate
(23:26):
my resources differently, i'd be a no brainer than paying him.
And we all acknowledge one of the great non quarterbacks
in the NFL. But this is it's a pretty easy
math equations. Especially I already got Jordan Addison, I got
an offensive coach, Like, yeah, I wouldn't just trade him
for a second round pick. But if you're gonna give
me three ones, here, take them. You give them the contract.
(23:47):
But I think there's a reason a lot of smart
teams now go that's not worth it to us giving
up all these ones and then having to allocate the resources.
So it's we've kind of seen less and less of
those massive trades since the DeVante and the Tyreek, because
why don't I just draft a guy in the twenties
like the Baltimore Ravens last year. I get Zave Flowers
and he's on a cost controlled contract that pays him
(24:10):
three or four million dollars a year, right, and I
get to keep my assets.
Speaker 2 (24:14):
Yeah, I mean, listen, if you if you look at
the greatest example is Kansas City that took a touchdown
machine in Tyreek Hill, and they have won back to
back Super Bowls without him, and Miami's going no further
with him. And you know, the other thing you have
to acknowledge is football is different in December and January.
You just don't throw the ball as deep as often.
You just don't, you know, you.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
Don't throw the ball deep that often in general, Like
there aren't go routes every other series, Right, That's not
the way football, even though it kind of feels that way.
A lot of explosive plays nowadays, right, happen around the
line of scrimmage because you have so many guys with
so much speed. Break Deebo Samuels had a ton of
explosive plays over the years. I would imagine the majority
of them have come ten yards an inn from where
(24:56):
the ball is snapped.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
The you know I was. The Pittsburgh Steelers are at
a really interesting crossroads. So Mike tom Mike Tomlin can
get a little prickly when his future is discussed, but
he has not beaten an elite quarterback in the playoff
game in forever. And that's just the reality.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
He hasn't want a playoff game in almost a decade. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
So, and it's interesting they're not paying anything for Russell. Russell,
you know, any chance he gets to say, boy, I'd
love to see packages for Justin Fields at wide receiver.
It's like, I mean, that's so transparent.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
That's kind of weird.
Speaker 2 (25:32):
You know, they're all talking about and Justin doesn't want
any part of that, and he shouldn't want any part
of it. But I did have somebody that I trust
kind of that reports on the Steelers say, Russell, the
Pittsburgh's going to be.
Speaker 1 (25:47):
It's very.
Speaker 2 (25:50):
That culture there is very grinder oriented. Even your stars.
Big Ben was kind of a small town guy. TJ.
Watt Midwestern guy. You know, the lavian bells come in
and very quickly they kind of feel disconnected from it.
It's it's a grinder operation. And I'm not saying Russell
doesn't grind and work hard, but he's got a brand.
(26:13):
He's just different. I mean, it's just I mean, call
it what you want. Nobody gets called out in this
league as much as Russell, and somebody that has good
connective tissue to the Steelers said, there's already been a
couple of situations where you know he's he's Russ and
these are the Steelers. It's ay and I say this,
(26:34):
Green Bay and Pittsburgh have a very lunch pale quality. Now,
the Steelers usually have elite defensive personnel. Packers are better
on the offensive side in terms of efficiency. Packers have
also had offensive coaches. But if you had to do
crystal ball on Russell Wilson, what it looks like end
of the year's schedule's awful. But if you had to
(26:54):
have a crystal ball on Russell Wilson, another quarterback who
almost inexplicably got worse fast without an injury, just got
worse fast nearing thirty five, what is your crystal ball
on Pittsburgh?
Speaker 1 (27:07):
If I had to go over under on Justin Field's
first start with the Steelers, it'd probably be around five
and a half. I think he's in and I think
he's in early. The other thing is, you know, Russell
has to ingratiate himself. When you think of Mike Tommin
and the Steelers, I think TJ. Watt, Cam Hayward, make
of Fitzpatrick. I mean, those guys in Mike are kind
of on the same page, right I mean they feel
(27:28):
like part of the operation. Do they feel like Russell
Wilson guys? I mean when you think do you think TJ.
Watt and MIKEA. Fitzpatrick. You never say the word brand.
You think ass kickers and football players. And I just
can't imagine. I just don't think he's good enough. And
the margin Ferrera in this conference dinking and dunking. You
could argue if it starts slow, like what if they're
(27:50):
owing to and it's just like what are we doing on?
It might not even get to five and a half
because what what whorst is equity with the operation? Denver what'nything?
Pretty heavily paying them anything? They're paying them less than
a million dollars. Honestly, if it got really what, you
could cut them and you wouldn't even think twice. And
that happens to a lot of NFL players. Once you
start getting the team three and four, your equity with
(28:11):
the operation disappears. And it's a performance based business, so
no one's gonna want to hear about anything except touchdown passes.
And I don't know, I mean the guy we've seen
the last couple of years, I don't know if his
confidence is gone. I don't know if, but he's been
a pretty marginal player now for three straight years because
that last year in Seattle and then everything that happened
in the last two years in Denver. I also think,
(28:33):
if you're the fan bases in the NFL, sneaky have
a lot of juice because that's kind of where the owners,
you know, they listen to radio that they so you
think Pittsburgh if all of a sudden listen, I don't know.
I would bet justin Fields he's probably closer to what
we've seen his whole career, but we've also seen guys
improve with that skill set when they get with the
(28:54):
right coordinator. Arthur Smith resurrected Ryan Tannehill. If I'm a
fan and we're zeroing too, like I not watching Russell Wilson, Well,
I've seen this from Afar putting the young kid, and
let's just see if we could figure something out with
this guy that has a lot of physical tools. Now
quarterbacks at about a lot more than run fast and
throwing hard. His pocket presence has been a major question mark.
(29:16):
But what did Arthur Smith do with Ryan tannel They
ran the ball. He gave him a lot of easy
looks kept it pretty simple. Now, I don't think they
really have Derrick Henry, you know, Najee Harris, Okay, back
Jalen Warred pretty explosive, but if their defense is good.
You know, honestly, if I was a Steeler fan, I
just want to see Justin fields right out. I wouldn't
even want to see Russell Wilson. I just like, can
we resurrect this guy?
Speaker 2 (29:37):
Well, it's interesting because Arthur Smith, his history is a
lot of throws over the middle of the field, and
that's not what Russell does. That's just not it.
Speaker 1 (29:45):
No, he throws deep go routes.
Speaker 2 (29:47):
See that's yeah, because you know his size, he can struggle.
Kyler Murray admits this. Tua acknowledges this. Sometimes I struggle
to see over the line. So of all, I've been
doing this now thirty years of talk sports, and you know,
I do a segment every Monday. Colin right, Colin wrong.
I have big opinions miss all the time. Russell. I
(30:07):
don't ever remember a player in my life at that
position that I was sure he was great, and then
after a year I'm pretty sure he's just B minus
and there's no injury he's not to thirty six. He
works really hard, Like it's a really hard ask. You
(30:33):
start trying to figure out. You say, well, he didn't
get along. Seattley wasn't beloved, so no injury, He's still elusive.
It's like he put wede On in the wrong spot.
He got a little thick. I find Russell to be
a complete historic outlier, like Matt Ryan, never moved well,
(30:53):
didn't have a big arm, kind of thin, and it
felt like the game quickly passed him by. It got
very mobile and athletic, and he wasn't you know, there
are players at the end. Philip Rivers was never athletic.
He got like the most unathletic quarterback in the league.
Eli Manning just felt like he was out of gas. Russell,
You're like last year in Seattle, he's a wizard and
(31:16):
then he's bad and then Peyton makes him okay, And
I'm like, I don't think he sees the field. I
don't think he sees guys, and I from people close
and around Sean like that's what the film said. He
just didn't see open guys.
Speaker 1 (31:32):
I'll give you another guy that falls into that category. Now,
he had a bunch off the field stuff, But Deshaun
Watson was much more of kind of a scramble to
throw ad lib guy, and when it was on it
looked spectacular. But over the course of years you have
to play from within the pocket. Now he missed time
because of the massage therapist, he's been injured, but he
has looked like a shell of himself in Cleveland. Yeah,
(31:52):
and it's not like he's throwing to me and you.
I mean, they have a lot of talent on the
team and he looks like a guy and he's way
younger than Russell. You're like, what the hell is this? Yeah,
and that that is?
Speaker 2 (32:01):
That is And we love his coach.
Speaker 1 (32:04):
For sure. I mean we love his team. Joe Flacco
gets in there, they boom, they start rattling off wins.
I mean, they're they're loaded. And that's one. I know
a lot of people in the NFL are like you know,
if you really watch them in Houston, it's a lot
of kind of running outside the tackles and making stuff happen,
which is awesome to watch when you're sitting on your couch.
No one in my life watching football did that better
(32:25):
Russell in his prime, But like over and over and over. Peyton,
Tom Aaron, it's winning. Think about some of the solid cousins.
Why is he had success? Dak Goff win in the
pocket is how you do it on a weekly basis,
especially nowadays you watch the combine. How many of these
d linemen are running four sevens and four as crazy,
So you start scrambling around. You don't get as much
(32:47):
space anymore because these guys can run you down. The
guy the Eagles draft last year, Jalen Carter, is like
three hundred and twenty pounds and can run faster than
some like running backs. So the athleticism, and let's face it,
the other thing is the offensive linemen that have come
into the league over the last four or five years.
The supply and demand relative to the high defensive linemen,
it's kind of it hasn't been there. So the offensive lineman,
(33:09):
a lot of these guys get aren't as good as
they used to be. And we know because of college
football is not quite the same the way that they
coach with the spread offenses, and these defensive linemen are
coming for you and they can catch you unless you're
Kyler Murray and most obviously you know Russell definitely no
longer is as fast and even Deshaun Watson, you watch him,
he doesn't play fast anymore. The volume.
Speaker 2 (33:31):
Thanks for listening to part one of the conversation. Don't
forget to check back for part two.
Speaker 1 (33:36):
Hey everyone, it's Jason Tipp, host of Hoops Tonight. Make
sure you check us out live after games on the
Hoops Tonight YouTube channel as we provide instant reaction and
analysis of all the big NBA playoff games. Again, that's
the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel and wherever you get your podcasts.
Host
Colin Cowherd
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