Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Aaron Rodgers Final Season? Cowboys Crippled, Rookie Franchise Quarterbacks, Betting NFL Week 7! - The Colin Cowherd Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
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(01:02):
week in a row, Aaron Rodgers had the ball late
with a chance to win Denver, Minnesota and now Buffalo
and could not get it done. You know, I've said
this four years. The strangest stat about Aaron Rodgers is
how few come from behind wins he has considering how
many big close games he's been in. The Jets lead

(01:23):
the NFL and penalty yards are second in total penalties
twenty two total penalties between the two teams. That I
did not love the officiating. I thought there were two
calls that already bothered me. The one when Aaron Rodgers
tucked it got hit fumble would have been huge for Buffalo.
They called it an incomplete pass. Didn't like that call
at all. Also, a Jets pass interference wiped out with

(01:47):
an unnecessary roughness against Buffalo. Did not like that call
at all. I don't complain about officiating, all right, I don't.
That's what you do your fans, I get it. I don't.
But I thought I didn't like either of those calls.
And again this game came down. So I had predicted
before the year Buffalo will win this division for what
the fifth straight year, mostly because of Josh Allen, and

(02:09):
then the Jets New englandle stink They'll be fourth, and
the Jets Miami will go down to the end of
the season, battling for the playoffs the final weekend, and
I said, I don't know if I had either one
of them in the playoffs. I don't think I had
the Jets in the playoffs, and I may have had Miami,
but I think they'll go down to the final week
and I think if Tuoa comes back here and plays
the rest of the season, Miami will heat up. So

(02:32):
the Jets are now two and four, Bills are four
and two, So it's working out. The Jets are fine, though,
don't overreact. They've got Justin Field's coming up. They've got
Drake May around the corner. They got Anthony Richardson coming up.
They've got a stretch of really weak quarterbacks, and Aaron's
planned pretty well. As the Bills won tonight twenty three
twenty there were opportunities for both teams. But when you

(02:54):
get into these games like tonight, these big division games,
it doesn't matter if it's Cincinnati Baltimore. Lamar Jackson was
the difference. You know, when you watch these big divisional games,
it's the quarterback making a play. And two plays at
the end of this game by the Bills, and they
made the two big plays in the game. Actually three
the Rap the safety for the Bills. Rap who went

(03:16):
to the University of Washington, good player, bounced around, had
some injuries in his career, physical physical safety, broke up
what appeared to be a potential catch by the Jets. Huge,
huge play by Rap. Then Taran Johnson with one of
the best interceptions I've ever seen. It felt like Ed Reid.
I hope everybody understands how great of a play that

(03:39):
was by Taran Johnson of Buffalo. He literally had to
do a U turn tu and around Mike Williams slipped
on one of his only targets tonight, and Johnson held
onto the ball. That is an all time play. That's
Ed Reed. That is incredible. So those two plays by
the defense, then Josh Allen running for the first down,

(04:00):
and again it's very Lamar Jackson, it's very Mahomes. It's
just an ad libbed play where a supreme athlete outruns
somebody else to the sticks. And that's the ballgame. There's
not a lot of blame to go around. I mean,
obviously the Jets got rid of Matt Hackett and the
offense looked better. That's what Robert Sala wanted to do

(04:21):
and got fired. Robert Sala, the best coach on the staff,
got fired. He's a defensive guy, and I don't think
the Jets defensive play was as good tonight. It wasn't
as tight. So if Sala would have remained the coach
and been allowed to demote Matt Hackett, that could have
been the ballgame. I think Saala is the best coach
on the staff. But you know, Bill Belichick took a
shot at Woody Johnson, and Belichick's had a much greater

(04:43):
career than Woody Johnson, certainly in football. And he was
talking to Eli and Peyton Manning on the Manning Cast,
and he said, you know, ready fire aim, which is
kind of an old line used around the NFL for
disorganized and impulsive owners, and that's really what the Jets are.
Robert Solid to me, should not have been fired. It

(05:04):
makes everybody feel good when you fire the coach. He's
the best coach on that staff. The defense was not
as tight tonight. Unless I got reams and notes here,
you know, I mean it's twenty three to twenty. Let's
be honest, let's be fair here. The hail Mary, you
get about one of those every four years as a quarterback,
that hail mary makes it twenty seventeen at half or

(05:28):
it's twenty ten Bills at half. So that's a bit
of a break. I felt like the Bills earned the
win more than the Jets earned keeping it close. It's
a hail mary. It's called that for a reason. Also,
you know the fumble that wasn't a fumble on the
Aaron Rodgers passing tucking it back. Didn't love that. It's

(05:48):
not like there weren't any calls that didn't go, you know,
against the Jets tonight. But I you know, Josh Allen,
you know, in the second quarter of that scrambling play
to Matt Hollins, that was just an incredible touchdown pass
to him to put the Bills up thirteen to ten.
But the scramble play and thrown to Davis earlier, it's
just so unique. Josh is such a unique all time talent. Also,

(06:13):
you know, the Jets missed two field goals tonight, so
this thing's just you know, I feel really feel like
watching Aaron Rodgers struggle in late game situations, the owner
being impulsive, the field goal kicker missing two kicks tonight,
and Aaron. The last couple of weeks, he's gotten the

(06:33):
crap hit out of him. He's taken shots. This feels
like Aaron Rodgers last season. I just don't know. It's
a circus. He's going to get blamed for this. We
have to be honest. You can blame whoever you want.
It's now Aaron's team and Denver, Minnesota and the Bills. Tonight,
he was the second best quarterback on the field in

(06:55):
long stretches against the Vikings in the first half, certainly,
and he was the second best quarterback on the field.
And I do think Aaron is playing for his age
at a really pretty high level. But he's taken hits.
They've already had to demote his offensive coordinator, they've fired
his coach. You're looking around, and you remember Aaron was

(07:18):
in Green Bay. Well, they just don't do any of
that stuff. They don't do any of that stuff. So
he goes from a really shrewd patient winning culture in
Green Bay. I mean, he's now, he's been injured, they
fired his coach, they demote his buddy. He's getting rocked.

(07:40):
I just don't see him coming back. I don't it
just everything, you just it's the drip drip drip effect.
It just wears on Aaron, who's not terribly patient anyway.
Who and by the way, I don't think any of
us are. I think as I've gotten older, I'm less
patient than I was years ago. You get into a
certain standard, you want things done a certain way. I'm
probably much less patient than I was in my twenties

(08:02):
or thirties. So you know, Aaron's eye rolls. I mean,
he was frustrated on that bench you got to kick
or missing two kicks in the biggest game. For the Jets,
who are now two and four, I think they'll be fine.
I think they're gonna finish. I said, I thought they'd
be like a nine to eight ten and seven team.
That's about where they're going to finish. And Buffalo's gonna
end up with probably eleven to twelve wins. And not

(08:25):
only did the Hail Mary make this game closer than
it would have been, but the Jets wins this year
are against Will Levis and the Titans and Jacoby Brussett
and the Patriots, and teams that start two and four
have only an eleven percent chance to make the playoffs.

(08:46):
So the Hail Mary, you know, you trail twenty to
ten at half, it may it may never cinch up it.
Buffalo's the better team, Buffalo's got the better quarterback. Buffalo
made the three big play at the end of the game.
Buffalo keeps winning this division. If you start four and two,
that's the Bills. You make the playoffs sixty four percent

(09:09):
of the time, and they will. You know, they didn't
have their best running back tonight, James Cook so and
to go on the road, have a couple of calls
go against him and just make the three biggest plays
of the game. Buffalo made all of them. Rap Teyaran Johnson,
Josh Allen boom boom boom, three biggest plays of the

(09:30):
game in order late and that's why the Bills are
gonna win the division again. Hell of a football game
for Monday night. I mean, the officiating drove me nuts,
but that was a We've been very lucky this year.
We've had, you know, Atlanta a couple of weeks ago,
overtime win. We've had really really good standalone games, really

(09:50):
good standalone games. And I will say this about the officiating.
I think about this sometimes in standalone games. Sometimes I
feel like the officials are trying to make a point.
They know everybody's watching, and so on that roughing, unnecessary
roughness against Buffalo that wiped out the passenger finners on
the Jets. Would that be called in the one o'clock window? Maybe,

(10:14):
maybe not, But I felt like it was one of
those things the league's watching. We're not going to tolerate
the extra sauce. We're just not going to tolerate it.
I feel like sometimes in standalone games, I feel like
the NFL does that in the preseason, like they were
over they will overcall a new rule just to make
it very clear to the players, we're not going to

(10:36):
allow this or tolerate this. I felt like tonight a
couple of times they were trying to make a point
the Buffalo Bills. So right now in the AFC, Josh
Allen leads his division, Lamar Jackson leads his division. Lamar
would be my MVP. CJ. Stroud leads his division. Mahomes
leads his easy to predict four for four. I'm sure

(10:58):
you probably did the same thing. Best core back to
leave their division. I think the NFC isn't quite as
good at the top, and so it'll work itself out
San Francisco. Now, I think feels like it's kind of
separating from the rest of the NFC West. The rams
off of buy are getting a little healthier, but it
may be a little maybe a little late. I mean,

(11:18):
they'd have to go on a five or six game
winning streak to get back at the top of that division.
You know, Doug Peterson had a reputation, so I was
totally wrong. I thought he was a perfect fit, kind
of a casual guy. I thought it was gonna work.

(11:39):
But you know, when he went to Philadelphia at work,
because Lori and Howie are so intense, and so they're
hovering over the franchise right like you know that. I mean,
everybody in Philly we know they're security guy and the
talk radio is on you if you have one bad
situational series. Philadelphia holds its coaches responsible. You go down

(12:05):
to Jacksonville, nobody's paying attention and it's like the worst
of Doug Peterson's come out. They're loose, they're not good
on details. That was the knock when he went to Philly.
It's like, you know, and he's calling the plays. You know,
he loves to give guys ice cream he's always rewarding him.
He's like the stepdad everybody loves. You can't do that

(12:25):
in Philadelphia, You'll get your ass wrung out by WIP
Radio the fans. I mean, that's Philadelphia is one of
those studies. They hold you accountable. Jacksonville doesn't, and I
think the team just feels loose and inefficient.

Speaker 3 (12:41):
I don't disagree with anyone that makes the argument. By
the time, if someone's listening to this Monday morning at breakfast,
he might get relieved of his duties. I do think
they'll watching Trevor Lawrence like separate from coaching just to
make basic passes. And there were times today where his
guys It's the NFL, had some bad drops. So I'm
acting like this guy's JaMarcus Russell here or Joey Harrington.

(13:03):
But for someone that got two hundred million dollars based
on I would say limited production and success, it did
feel a little bit like what bad NBA teams do,
like the Washington Wizards when they gave Bradley Beal two
hundred and fifty million dollars. And I don't know if
this is going to work in that operation. That's right,
and listen, I think at this point in time, I

(13:25):
don't think it's really debatable that his career has been
a borderline. I mean for him, not really. He's made
a bunch of money, but as a player, the hype
was very similar to Andrew Lucke, and you watch the
guy play, he's not even in the same It wasn't
even on the same level as Caleb Williams that a
lot of people were making fun of, like three weeks previously.

Speaker 1 (13:42):
Oh Caleb was you know the there's sometimes John something
happens where there's a convergence of things either good or bad,
so you have sort of casual not tied on the details.
Doug Peterson, a quarterback who reportedly likes the game, doesn't
live for it. A media that's toothless, and a market

(14:04):
nobody pays attention to. So if you have a bad series,
nobody calls you out. And there they've all joined together
and it's it's what happened to why Nick Saban and
guys like Nick Saban after wins called good press. You know,
rat poison is that everybody acts the same way when

(14:28):
they lose their pissed, but when you win, you get
sloppy and lazy. And Jacksonville feels like a sloppy franchise.
To me, all these things converge a quarterback that likes
the game, but that was the knock. That was the
knock very early in his career. Like he doesn't live
for it, he's not obsessed by it. And Breeze was obsessed,
Manning was, Mahomes is obsessed, And I just think all

(14:50):
these things are adding up to a to a big
soft pillow of a team.

Speaker 3 (14:55):
Yeah. To me, just their record speaks for itself since
the Cons have owned the family. Just google where they've
after every single year. I mean the majority is not
the top ten, it's the top five. I mean that's
hard to do, all right.

Speaker 1 (15:07):
He's a former scout for the Eagles. Philadelphia twenty, Cleveland sixteen.
Deshaun Watson. We could go on. I mean, he's playing
because the owner wants him to play, and Kevin Stefanski's
taking the sword for the organization. Deshaun just can't play.
But it is interesting about Philly. So they were an
eight and a half point favorite today and j Mack
was all over this, and I'm like, I'm not taking

(15:27):
an eight and a half point favorite because Philadelphia. It
is weird. So if I just if you didn't watch
the game and they said Jalen Hurts was sixteen to
twenty five, fourteen rushes two sixty four to two TDS,
AJ Brown DeVante Smith had touchdowns, you would think, Jesus,
they look great when I watched them. I'll get to
Sirianni in a second. Well, when I watched Philadelphia, I

(15:51):
feel like they leave so much on the floor, so
much on the table. Is that First of all, they're
not the same team without AJ Brown. He's clearly a
difference maker. Very rarely does a receiver have that kind
of impact. I mean, you could Brandon Ayuk didn't do
squat for weeks. San Francisco could still score points. Ceedee lamb,
you take him out. Dallas can't score I mean, and

(16:12):
AJ Brown is really I mean, I've never seen a
coach when he loses a player act like Mike vrabelbin
when they lost to AJ Brown, Like Vrabel was like, okay,
I can't remember that press conference. It's like I can't
win here, Like it's over. And Rabel's not somebody who loves,
you know, outspoken receivers. That's not his game. So but

(16:35):
twenty sixteen. I just I look at Philadelphia and I
think the coach is screaming at fans. I feel I
don't know, I feel like the roster's closer to an
A and the performance always feels like a b AM
I wrong.

Speaker 3 (16:49):
Yeah, to me, the quarterback, like you said, we can
get into Syriana here in a minute if we just
use Jalen in a vacuum. Well, three of the plays
he hit aj Brown twice on big go routes, and
then he hit DeVante Adams or DeVante Smith on a
big play. So what does that account for one hundred
and twenty five hundred and thirty of the two hundreds.

Speaker 1 (17:08):
Those guys are between the two one hundred and seventy
five yards.

Speaker 3 (17:11):
Yeah, so to me, he's a go ball thrower, which
when all you do is throw a gobal, this isn't
college or high school that those don't hit often in
the pros and kind of a scramble run around guy.
He cannot pick you apart in the pocket. There was
one point in time today in the game where I
think Vilma was like, I don't know why these fans
are booing. You don't know why It's thirteen to ten

(17:32):
against the Browns. They can't move the ball and Jalen's
the ball's flying all over the place. There is no
rhythm to their offense. It looks very similar as it
did last year. And at one point in time I
looked down at the box score, I'm like, I'd have
to find a way to get the ball to Saquan
even more. Yeah, And I think sometimes coaches, you know
he had when I look down, he was like fifteen

(17:53):
rushes and he was averaging a little less than three
yards of carry. Yeah, so most coaches freak out and go,
this isn't working.

Speaker 1 (17:59):
Well.

Speaker 3 (17:59):
You don't have Aden Manning or Tom Brady slinging the
pill around. So just keep the Kyle Shanahans McVeigh back
when he had Todd Gurley. They will stick with it
because when you ever you have Derrick Henry, eventually the
guy might break a play for thirty yards. Slows down
the game, makes it easier on your quarterback. And I
think they have been way too quick to get away
from Saquon because really the only passes they're hitting are

(18:21):
these kind of bombs down the field. It's why when
you remove aj they look even worse. I mean, if
aj obviously had been hurt like he had previous weeks.
I think they lose today.

Speaker 1 (18:31):
Let me give you a comp if their defense was
the Legion of Boom and Seattle, they could win a
Super Bowl. Because when you go back and look at
Russell Wilson's career, what we know now happened late in Seattle,
Denver and Pittsburgh. He was great with the rainbow throws
over the top or when he was moving. He had
a great running back. But if you ask Russell to

(18:54):
sit in the pocket, Pete Carroll and John Snyder and
Peyton were like, it doesn't work. So Philadelphia has not
had a great defense, especially in the back end. So
they lose. You know, they give up points. But for
years and years, I said this Friday on the show
is I was full. I thought Russ was engineering stuff.
Let Russ cook. I bought into it. And then all
of a sudden, you're like, boy, when you take away
that defense and Marshaw and You're like, I don't know,

(19:16):
he can't go toe to toe with the big guys
from the pocket. If you can contain him, bring the
rush ends in and just box him in. Russell's a
very ineffective part two. Is a better pocket guy than
Russell Wilson. And I look at Jalen hurts and and
I see a little Russell Wilson where over the top, Yes,
surround it with the I mean, good guy. He had
the best center in a decade, Lane Johnson, aj Brown.

(19:39):
It's easy to look like it's you, but to your
point in the pocket, I don't trust him.

Speaker 3 (19:44):
Well, that's the thing watching Washington play today, Jaden is
such a better thrower standing there within the tackle box,
if not really even close. Well, he's got a better arm,
he's more naturally accurate. Most people thought. You know, whenever
you text people the league when Jalen hurts the struggling
they all go yeah. It kind of reminds me Oklahoma again.
Kind of reminds me of the guy that everyone scouted

(20:06):
and thought he is when he got drafted second round.
The Eagles didn't just get questioned because they drafted a
quarterback in the second round. When they had wentz it
was they took him that high. He was like, damn.
And sometimes it comes out like he's not a great
thrower of the football. Obviously he throws a good go ball,

(20:26):
but just a good thrower of the football in the pocket.
We just talked about Kirk Cousins. I had Jay Gruden
on the pod like a month ago. He's like, if
you don't touch him, he might be the best seven
on seven player in the league right just throwing just
he's a good thrower of the football. Jalen, I don't
know if he's not comfortable, it's not natural. He doesn't
have great velocity on just sitting in the pocket throws,

(20:48):
which is weird for a guy that does have a
powerful arm on the loop throw. You know, Russell had
a better ball in his prime than Jalen, just throwing
like an outrout or whatever. He just wasn't that comfortable
threatrowing it over the middle from the pod because he
couldn't see. Jalen's a little shorter. He's taller than Russell,
but shorter than average quarterbacks. So maybe it's just not
as comfortable seeing stuff because he clearly when he moves

(21:11):
is better outside the tackles making plays. But you can't
run a consistent offense play in that way. Yeah, it's very,
very difficult. So now it's going to be another coach
or a coordinator's fault. Maybe it's just a player.

Speaker 1 (21:23):
Yeah, let me ask you, so, Sirianni, knowing he's on
the hot seat, knowing that his sort of demeanor has
been dubbed juvenile, comes in, shaves his head at one point,
yelling at fans like it to me, it's just, bro,
you're the head football coach of the Philadelphia Eagles. Like

(21:43):
he just feels like he doesn't have a self awareness.

Speaker 2 (21:49):
You know.

Speaker 1 (21:49):
It's almost like Baker's first couple of years in the league.
You knew he was talented, but you're like, dude, you're
starting fires at the podium on Wednesday. Just don't You
don't have to win and be the snarkiest, funniest guy
at the podium. Just let other people and not. Baker's matured.
But I feel like Nick sometimes doesn't get it.

Speaker 3 (22:05):
Yeah to me, I don't know if there's a wager
you can place with our friends at DraftKings, but I
think he's a borderline lock to not be the head
coach for the Eagles in twenty twenty five. Yeah, and
that's not making a prediction. They're missing the playoffs and
making the playoffs, Like he will not be the coach
next year, Like this thing him screaming at the fans.
Is just in what world? In a game that you

(22:27):
barely just beat what many consider as one of the
worst transactions, not in football, in like sports history, with
Deshaun Watson, the quarterback who was pretty bad today again
and you are struggling to win the game and you're
screaming at the fans. It'd be one thing if he
was kicking ass and they're still chanting fire Sirianni, I

(22:47):
would get it. It's like, bro, let's you know, cooler
jets here now. I saw Jalen Hurt said after the game.
Is one thing that the players talk to Nick about
during the bye week was to get back to his
crazy waists, get back to his roots of being emotional
he had been to. I don't know stoic, I guess

(23:08):
for their taste over the beginning of this season. But
if that what you're trying to get back to, like,
what are we doing? I see, under no scenario, this
team's not win the Super Bowl, So I just don't
see how serious Sirianni knows what's going on. Like the
head shave, what did that symbolize to you? A guy
searching a guy? Maybe he got a bad haircut.

Speaker 1 (23:29):
I remember when Robert Sala came in with the black beard,
like darkened his beard, and it's just like, Bro, you're
on camera like twelve minutes on national TV in an
NFL game every week. It did feel like you were
trying to make some sort of statement. And I I mean,
I think we know now that Salah and Adam Schefter

(23:51):
reported that he was he was affected by the noise.
I think Sirianni's affected. I think Philadelphia is probably the
loudest NFL city because talk radio is so powerful in
that city. In the media, there's multiple newspapers. It's a
it's a kind of a working class for a big
sophisticated city. It's it's you know it, it's loud and

(24:12):
if your Andy Reid could shut it out. But I
think it affected. I think it affects Sirianni set it today.
I think and I had a I had a music
producer text me today that I know off this comment

(24:33):
I made, he'd liked this comment. I think two things
you see within five to six games of a new
franchise quarterback clear red flags and excellent traits. So I
always use the example of the voice or of American
has talent or American idol. I don't know much about

(24:56):
music other than I enjoy it. But I can see
within three to f four notes, you know, I mean
literally twelve seconds hack and great, figuring out lounge singer
to successful lound singer. Good is hard. Justin Fields could
be good, but good is very hard to decipher because

(25:18):
the difference between good and great is consistency. You've got
very few bad games from Mahomes, whereas Russell Wilson now
is at the point where ooh that's pretty good. Oh
that's awful. Same with Justin Field. So I think good
is hard to decipher. I think awful and great are
pretty easy. You can see a draft pick in the NBA,
You're like, yeah, that's like James Wiseman. I'm watching with

(25:42):
the Warriors. Like second year. I'm like, he's never going
to be a star in this league. It is an
ant first year All Star break, You're like, yeah, that's
gonna work. Jason Tatum, Jason Tatum, even rookie year, Jason Tatum,
You're like, yeah, that's gonna work. He's gonna get better.
So I look at Caleb and Jayden Daniels and to
a lesser degree, Boon Nicks, and I'm like, yep, those

(26:02):
are franchise guys. Whereas Justin Fields was one step forward,
two back, Caleb just keeps getting better, clearly takes to
go Jayden Daniels, He's Lamar Jackson, but better in the
pocket is a rookie. Bo Nix has a lower ceiling,
less of an arm, reads the field, more mobile than
anybody that didn't watch Oregon Duck Games really realizes he's
actually really mobile. Bark's right back at Sean Payton. Not

(26:27):
a follower, total leader, confrontational, and I feel very now
now Bow has the less talent. He's in a division
with Harbon Andy Reid like it's a tough draw. But
my take is Caleb, Jayden Bow, these are franchise quarterbacks.
I have no fear saying, yeah, this is what it

(26:47):
looks like.

Speaker 2 (26:49):
So I want to ask you two quick questions before
I give you my full response to it. One, I
guess this would be a small risk. Do you think
the NB I don't think the NBA comparison is fair
because in the NBA it is so purely a talent sport,
like talent can over overcome situation, like John Moran goes
to Memphis doesn't matter like the franchise. Anthony Edwards goes

(27:12):
to Minis, It doesn't matter the franchise. Like your talent
will always win out in the NBA. You might not
win big if you don't have a good organization, but
you can be a ten time All Star on a
bad franchise and make an impact in the NBA. In football,
I do think situation coaching, offensive line talent around you.
It is so situational that I find it much easier

(27:35):
to make a snap judgment in basketball than I do
in football. And then I guess the quick question i'd
get back to you is what did you say about
RG three? Because his rookie year was historic? So that's
good my injury, sure, but I feel like we could
have said a lot of the things we said about
Jaden about RG three.

Speaker 1 (27:54):
Okay, so I said during RG three's rookie year, I
said Lux the better quarterback, but RG three more fun
to watch. And voters are suckers for art artistry. NBA
voters Westbrook, Westbrook, he can't his bad handles and can't shoot.
Derek Rose couldn't shoot, Spindily ended up getting hurt a lot.

(28:15):
So I think RG three pleased the eye, but I
didn't think it was nearly as sustainable. I thought Andrew
Luck was bigger, stronger. I mean, Jesus, the kid went
to Stanford, he memorized a playbook. According to Kobe Fleeener,
who also went to Stanford in two days, like it's like, yeah,
it's so, I never bought into.

Speaker 2 (28:35):
The crazy but I mean, but RG three was Rookie
of the year, right, I didn't buy it. You so
you didn't buy it, and you buy something Jaden that
you did not buy with RG three.

Speaker 1 (28:46):
Oh, I think I think ja you know, I said
with RG three, I think he's talented, but he was thin.
I thought, I said, Andrew Luck's the better player. So
Jaden is better in the pocket than RG three. I
think they're both equally twitchy. But here's was a real
cell for me on Jayden Daniels. And this almost never happens,

(29:09):
almost as a rule, when you have a rookie quarterback.
The coaching staff says, hey, be patient, this is a process, right. Literally,
Dan Quinn, a defensive coach, was like, I've never seen
anything like this. I mean they literally En Camp couldn't.
Brian Kelly's like the kid's magic. Brian Kelly runs through

(29:30):
quarterbacks at Notre Dame. I think he had six at
one point in like five years. So part of it
was I watched a lot of his games. Second, the
people I trusted, Cliff Kingsbury, Steve Khim, who hired him
as a friend. He was like, no calling this kid, Cliff,
can't even like. It's Kyler with more maturity, better in

(29:50):
the pocket.

Speaker 2 (29:51):
And I like Kyler.

Speaker 1 (29:52):
So I've had good sourcing on Jayden and I totally
buy it.

Speaker 2 (29:56):
Okay, So Jaden, to me is incredibly impressive. I was
not as sold I certainly was not as sourced on
him as you were. It was hard for me, with
how slender he was and how much talent was around
him to say for sure that it would translate. Like
I loved Drake May coming out of college. I had
him Actually of Jaden some of the games I watched,

(30:19):
I was like, this guy's doing more with less, tough
as hell, crazy athlete. Youngest brother comes from a family
of athletes like overachieved his situation, and Jaden Daniels has
blown me away. I think every piece of hype that
he's gotten has been totally totally valid. I do think
there is an element of some of his production is

(30:42):
based on running the football, and that works obviously. Lamar
Jackson's got a couple of MVPs, but it's not the
type of thing that ages particularly well, Like we haven't
seen that quarterback in their thirties. Like it's a depreciating asset.
At some point, you need to just be great from

(31:02):
the pocket, and he's been great from the pocket. So
I'm not saying he can't be that. But if his
comp is Lamar Jackson and Caleb Williams's comp is Aaron Rodgers,
if we did a redraft tomorrow, I would still take
Caleb Williams over Jade and Daniels.

Speaker 1 (31:19):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (31:19):
I think the skill set is actually more sustainable and
allows for a higher ceiling.

Speaker 1 (31:25):
Yeah so I so I would too, absolutely, Yeah, But.

Speaker 2 (31:30):
I don't think that's a majority opinion anyhoy.

Speaker 1 (31:32):
Yeah, No, I think Caleb. I use this word a lot.
People think it's weird. Caleb's thicker and trunk here. He's
a big, thick athlete. If you're standing around him, you're
like ass legs, shoulders, like he's like he's just big.
Jaden is more spindily. That always worries me. But saying
I would take Caleb over Jaden is like saying I
would take vanilla ice cream over chocolate or whatever. Like

(31:54):
I like him both, and I don't care. I don't care.

Speaker 2 (32:01):
It's possible people at the beginning, people wanted to make
this because Caleb had a bad couple of games and
Shane Waldron had an awful adjustment to Chicago. People were
immediately running too. It's like people have the memory of
one day, one minute, like it has to be c J. Stroud,
Bryce Young. I'm like, are you guys crazy? It Like
that is so stupid, Like it's very possible that this

(32:23):
draft ends up being by the way, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger,
Philip Rivers, how about this, all three awesome quarterbacks, all
three franchises and fan bases are thrilled with their.

Speaker 1 (32:32):
Guy, Danny. You don't have to go back that far.
Herbert Burrow hurt Tua, right, that was just like four
or five years ago. We had an incredible draft.

Speaker 2 (32:43):
Yeah, and so I think that that is certainly what
is in play here, because bo Nix and Jaden have
far exceeded what my expectations were for them coming into
the draft. And I'll be honest, it was one game
I thought Drake May was gonna get killed last Sunday,
with six offensive line combinations in six games, no offensive

(33:05):
weapons to speak of, defensive head coach, they were sitting
in for a reason that it felt like going up
against Houston's pass rush, which led I mean the Patriots
led the league in pressures allowed and the Texans led
the league in pressure percentage generated. I was like, this
is a terrible matchup. Why are they doing this? And
he acquitted himself beautifully. I thought in the game one

(33:25):
of the stories of the season to me is how
these quarterbacks, rookie quarterbacks are playing so well. But also,
if you just look at completion percentage in the NFL
right now, fifteenth in the NFL, fifteenth is Will Levis,
who's completing sixty six percent of his passage. It's not

(33:47):
that long ago that that was top three in the NFL,
or even something that would lead the league. So I
think what has happened And this is a much better
podcast topic than TV show topic. I think that analytics
and the smart people in football have figured out that

(34:10):
conservative passing is so valuable. Is an extension of the
run game, and young quarterbacks can do it, and young
quarterbacks are cheap quarterbacks, and we know that's where the
market in efficiency is. So it's never been easier to
be successful as a young quarterback because the passing game

(34:35):
is now more left and right than vertical. And in
baseball and basketball, the analytics revolution has rewarded the high
variance plays. Go for a home run, shoot a three pointer.
So analytics in those sports has actually injected like the

(34:55):
more difficult skill set, whereas analytics in football, don't take risks,
don't throw the ball down the field, don't force it,
just matriculate. We'll go forward on fourth down three yards,
four yards, five yards is fine, and just get the
ball out quick, don't take hits, execute the easy pass.

(35:15):
And so you're seeing, I mean, Jaden Daniels is completing
seventy five percent of his passes. Yeah, that is he
deserves credit, and he does have some big plays to him,
so he's not just thinking and dunking. But that number
makes no sense. Seven years ago, we would have been like,
that's not going to happen. And so I just I

(35:37):
think that coaches have gotten so much smarter at cultivating
an offense where young guys can have a high floor early,
then it makes it more difficult for me to evaluate
their ceiling because I think the floor has been raised
so significantly.

Speaker 1 (35:55):
Yeah, this is what I have said about the Cowboys
and the Lakers, very insular franchises with a lot of
buses and friends of buses, and the Lakers and a
lot of Joneses and friends of Jones' inside the Cowboys.
Is that as the league's gotten sharper, shrewder and more analytical,
the Lakers and the Cowboys have gotten more of the
corner grocery store in a supermarket world. Is that football's

(36:16):
gotten so smart And you look at the Cowboys right now,
and they're over paying for a quarterback that's a B
plus quarterback Like that is the number one mistake in
the league. Pay for Mahomes or a rookie quarterback. Those
are the only two. You can have Garoppolo and Goff
early in their career and get to a super Bowl.

(36:37):
You can have Garoppolo and get to a super Bowl
before you pay them big.

Speaker 2 (36:40):
You can't if you get McVeigh, if you get Shanahan,
Yes you get if you get one of those guys.
And obviously those guys don't count against your salary cap,
so do anything you can to hire one of those guys.

Speaker 1 (36:52):
So people, it's remarkable to me that the Cowboys and
the market struggles with this. I think Dallas fans have
finally figured it out. The Athletic did a poll and
like seventy five percent of Cowboy fans are like, we
have no chance to win the super Bowl for five years.
So they get it. Cowboy fans get it. But these
people that think it's an anti deck conversation, No, it's
an anti bank paying a B plus quarterback a plus money.

(37:15):
It is so odd. It's like the most obvious analytics
some we can argue about in baseball. Some are clear
that the ground ball is a death penalty, a strikeout's not.
That's pretty obvious if you don't follow too much analytics
in football, just don't pay a good quarterback great money
if you don't know anything else. That's clear, and the
Cowboys you're doing it.

Speaker 2 (37:35):
It's funny. It's I get why teams do it, even
saying that, because in Dallas's situation, let's say they decided
not to pay Dak and just let him leave for nothing.
That's also bad team building, like, he finished second in
the league in MVP last year. He's won twelve games

(37:57):
three years in a row. They led the league in
scoring last year. I hate when teams just let stars
walk for nothing. You have to get something for your asset,
even if it's sixty cents on the dollar. You have
to get something. And so Dallas was going to be
too good to draft Drake may or to draft Bo Knicks,

(38:17):
or to draft Jada Daniels, And so then they would
be more they maybe they wouldn't be paying big money
to go get a good quarterback, but they would be
trading multiple first round picks to move up and get
a good quarterback. And do you trust that Jerry Jones
is going to hire the right coach to develop the
young quarterback? Because yeah, if you could say, I'd rather

(38:38):
have Jaden Daniels at his money than Dak Prescott at
his like of course, obviously, but Atlanta was like, we
can't have another year of Desmond Ritter, Like, we will
give Kirk Cousins one hundred and eighty million dollars at
thirty five coming off of an achilles and draft Michael
Pennix so that we never have to go through a

(39:00):
season like that again, like there aren't thirty two good
quarterbacks in the world that can do this job, and
there's thirty two teams.

Speaker 1 (39:09):
Yeah. I also think something I touched on last week
is quarterbacks come in more ready to play, but owners
are more ready to fire them. So you've got this
convergence of yeah, wealthier, wealthier owners, more impulsive, quarterbacks, more talented,
we're not giving you two full years. I mean the

(39:30):
fact that Daniel Jones got an extension and was basically
a C minus quarterback, it's just that doesn't that doesn't
happen anymore.

Speaker 2 (39:38):
You know that that that was a terrible one. That
that one made made no sense. And the thing about
these rookies, like I I kept saying when I was
still doing radio in Chicago, I was like, we need
to hold Caleb Williams to a really high standard. Yeah,
And people were like, why do you keep saying CJ.
Stroud that's an outlier? No, it was. The outlier for

(40:01):
Stroud was that he didn't throw interceptions. He only had
five interceptions, but Dak had four, like we have as
a rookie. We have seen it before. The guy had
twenty three touchdowns, he had a little over four thousand yards.
It was a very, very, very impressive season because no
one saw it coming. Houston was terrible. He turned him around.

(40:22):
He won a playoff game, but I mean he beat
the Browns. He beat Joe Flacco in a playoff game.
Like and again this is not to Naxie j Stroud,
but my point is it is easy easier to be
good as a rookie because back in the day, you'd
be playing in like the Big twelve in a spread offense,

(40:42):
and they'd be like, come into the NFL and be
under center and take seven step drops and throw post routes.
And now they're like, everything's out of the shotgun. You
could have a wristband, we're going to call the play
in on a number, and we're going to give you
a run pass option just like you had in college.

(41:03):
So it's just so much easier to be good early
that I hope that we get smarter when Shador Sanders
or whoever comes into the NFL next year, and then
everyone's like, pump the brakes on expectations, no man, like,
build your organization from coaches, from investment in the offensive line,

(41:25):
wide receivers, build your organization to take advantage of the
first four years of these guys when they're crazy cheap,
because that's the easiest time it should ever be for
you to win a Super Bowl if you have a
great quarterback. And I do think that Washington and Chicago,
at least, I'll say it on those guys. You're farther
ahead on bow next than I am. But those teams

(41:45):
should be making hyper aggressive moves the next three years
to win a Super Bowl, because that's what you can
do if you've got a quarterback who's that good, who's
that cheap.

Speaker 1 (41:55):
There are certain things that the media does. They don't
irritate me, but they're so predictable. One of them is
early in the season when there are injuries. People are like,
I don't think I've ever seen this many NFL injuries. Yes,
you have twelve months earlier, and in the end, almost

(42:19):
without exception, you get to a Super Bowl and each
team is missing like one starter, and teams are overwhelmingly healthy.
Players get healthier. Players are they hit less in practice,
they hit less in games. Doctors are better, fitness, fitness
is better. They're fine. So here's the other one that
just cracks me up. After a great weekend in college football. Man,

(42:43):
college football is so much better than the NFL. No,
they're both great, and they're different. The NFL is a
higher level of coaching and playing. You get guaranteed, like
five to seven great games a weekend, even though there's
only thirty two teams. In college football, you have one
hundred and thirty teams, and you may get four great

(43:05):
games and a great weekend. I mean, like last weekend
was great, and we all knew it was great. But
you'll have weekends going into a college football weekend where
like there's like one game between ranked teams and you
can get a nice Kansas State TCU game. But I
went out with my wife, I'm not watching it. So
here's how I look at the NFL in college The

(43:27):
NFL is a successful brother in the family. He always
has a nice car, he's got a nice fund with
his broker. A little boring at times and predictable, but
you kind of know what you get. College football is
the brother and the family that twice a year you
have a big part of You invite him over and

(43:47):
he'll take all his clothes off, go naked, jump into
a pool, kind of drunk. People laugh, but it's kind
of inappropriate. You're not happy with him, but you do
wake up the next morning and say, you know, he
really gets the most out of life we have. We
have a nicer our kids go to better schools, we
have a nicer life. But you know, Tim, he really
has a good time in life. And that's how I

(44:09):
feel College football is at its best. It's wild, fans
are pouring on the field. The officiating can be abjectly horrid.
These are twenty.

Speaker 2 (44:22):
Soccer players who may or may not know what they're doing.

Speaker 1 (44:25):
Special teams are a s show. Yeah, but like Tim
who got naked and jumped into a pool, there is
something memorable and ecstatic about it. And I thought Oregon
Oregon Ohio State was that it's like Jesus. But my
point being, if I circle back, is they're both great.

(44:47):
They're much more unique. Ones corporate. One's on a campus,
and I think that's the beauty of them.

Speaker 2 (44:55):
Well, it's funny, though, I mean, some of your finest work, Colin,
I what do you what are your finest analogies? We
got to work on Tim's name. I feel like Tim's
name should be like like Madison or like Bucky or
you've seen like like a college. Yeah, yeah, exactly, so
we get we gotta work on Tim's name. But otherwise
nine point eight out of ten on the column analogy scale.

(45:16):
And I was just judging myself because I like the
NFL so much more than college. And I'm like, yeah,
I think boring, corporate, suburban guy with like the healthy
Stockport folks. Yeah, I know, dude, I'm washed up, like
I got a wife and two kids, and I just
love like a sushi dinner and a bottle of red
and a nice early bedtime.

Speaker 1 (45:36):
But but yeah, it is.

Speaker 2 (45:38):
It's it's true college at its best. It's just you're like,
this is crazy. I don't understand what's happening here. This
is random. A team that's a thirty point underdog can
win a game, like you know what the NFL it's like, Oh,
the biggest spread on the board is six and a half,
like right, like it's it's parody by design. There's a
salary cap, there's a salary floor. Free agents are just

(46:01):
as likely to choose Dallas as they are Buffalo in
Green Bay because they just follow the money. Like it's
I think the NFL is the perfect viewing product. I
think it's perfect. Every game matters. Every team before the
season doesn't think they can win a Super Bowl, but
like worst a first tap in every single year, rookie
quarterbacks can change a franchise on a dime. Like basically

(46:24):
every franchise has some reason to believe at least within
three years. Right, Like Jacksonville three years ago absolutely thought
that it was on the board that they had a
future Hall of Fame quarterback. So I think the NFL
is a perfect viewing product, and college is just a
little tougher for me to like follow and be fully
invested in weekend in week out. But college at its

(46:49):
best is just awesome. And it's because it means like
an irrational amount to the people in the building.

Speaker 1 (46:58):
Not that.

Speaker 2 (47:00):
Don't fight and pro fans aren't passionate, they obviously are,
but it's just like the tribalism of like this is
the most important thing in the entire state of Alabama. Right,
I'm a fifth generation Badger, Like there's just something about
like the college football pageantry that I'll never be able

(47:22):
to quit.

Speaker 1 (47:28):
All Right, I predicted last week the league would have
a separation. Best quarterbacks would win Week six Going forward,
in most cases, and the best quarterbacks last week went
fourteen and er I went three and one on my picks.
I had the Jets with the points, but the Bills winning.
I just needed the Jets to make an occasional field goal.
Is that too much to ask? The Action Network CEO

(47:50):
Chad Millman, my friend. All odds provided by DraftKings.

Speaker 4 (47:54):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (47:55):
I always feel like defensive players get hurt statistically more
often than offfensive players. That's where more the violence is.
Defenses get weaker over time. Quarterbacks pull away from the league,
and once again, I think this is the second strongest
week I think I've seen so far this year, so
I'm excited about this. I think there's clear distinction in

(48:17):
some of these games, and as you know, I don't
have to like a team to like them for a week.
I don't like the Jaguars, but I think the staff
is fighting for its life. It's also number five. You
know I'm into number five. I'm sorry, I know sevens.
The lucky number five is mine. A team that regularly
plays in London, a New England team that's limited and

(48:41):
actually Trevor Lawrence has not played poorly the last couple
of weeks. If it's five, I take the favorite. Last
week four and five the Packers was my favorite bet.
The game was over eight minutes in Probably not sharp,
but I love it. Sharper square.

Speaker 5 (48:55):
I feel like you're playing some kind of game of
numerology and astrology and like I don't like I don't
like bad quarterbacks.

Speaker 4 (49:06):
I like good quarterbacks. I like the number five.

Speaker 5 (49:09):
I don't sign don't like the number seven when the
zodiac sign says mercury. Because in retrograde, I'm definitely going
with the team from Jacksonville.

Speaker 4 (49:18):
If they're playing in London.

Speaker 5 (49:19):
Yes, this actually is the sharp side, and it's because
some of what you said, but it's also the Jags
have been in London favorite historically. Yeah, thirty five and
ten in London. I mean the just winning outright, thirty
five and ten in London. Some like thirty and fifteen

(49:43):
against the spread. It's like it's the right side. It's
the nominally better team in a more desperate situation. So yes,
it's I mean most wise, guys are like, I'm not
really planning I even watching this game.

Speaker 4 (49:57):
I'm going to sleep in. But if they're going to bet,
they're going to beat the Jaguars.

Speaker 5 (50:02):
You just sent it in the Jets, and it made
me think of a funny story because that game was
so disgusting.

Speaker 4 (50:07):
The night before the game, if you were.

Speaker 5 (50:08):
Betting the Giants at plus three and a half, was
also terrible because they were winning. They had won that
game like they were the better team. They had Stemy
Joe Burrow, they missed field goals. At the end of
the game. It was clear they were going to lose
because something funky was going to happen. The Bengals weren't
just going to lay down at ten to seven. They
were going to do something that sort of recapped the Giants.

(50:30):
I'm watching this game and I feel like you'll appreciate this.
It's eleven o'clock at night. I'm watching the game in bed.
My wife is sent me, sleeping next to me, and
she starts she says something to me, and I'm like,
I can't understand what you're saying.

Speaker 4 (50:43):
What are you saying?

Speaker 5 (50:44):
And she starts talking to me about something that has
nothing to do with anything, that is a total non
sequit or to the day, the weekend, everything, and I go,
I can we just not talk about this right now?
Like we don't need to have this conversation in this
second goes, that's fine.

Speaker 4 (51:01):
I understand. My feeling right now is you're probably going
to lose this.

Speaker 5 (51:05):
Game and you're going to wake up in the morning
and people are on Twitter. I'm just going to tell
you you're stupid. And then she rolled over and she
went back to bed.

Speaker 1 (51:16):
That's what they do, by the way.

Speaker 5 (51:17):
She was right, Yeah, I felt like you would appreciate
every single element to that.

Speaker 1 (51:22):
So that was one of my Blazing five picks. And
for the first or second time in my career, I
pulled it off the Blazing five. When Malik Neighbors was
not available, I pulled it out. I almost inserted the Bears.
My staff knew I loved that game. I did, and
so I finished three and one. Here's my favorite pick
of the week, and it again you. I have a rule.
When a good team plays a perfect game and it's

(51:45):
the game of the week and it's flawless pro college,
you don't duplicate that. We've seen that multiple times this year.
Minnesota off of by Detroit off the perfect football game.
No thank you. I'll lay the points Vikings now minus
one and a half sharper square.

Speaker 5 (52:04):
So it's square what's really interesting here is and you
know me and me and my co host Salmon Hunter
talked about this on the Favorites. He's a professional better
and a lot of times what professional betters do, they
will manipulate the market. So this game was at Minnesota
minus one, minus one and a half or during the
week it went up to two, it went up to

(52:26):
two and a half, and then as soon as it
got to two and a half, the professional betters started
betting Detroit again. It went back down to two, it
went back down to one and a half. So there's
a philosophy. There's a theory right now that the professional
betters early in the week were betting small amounts of
money to bet this game up a little bit so
they could come in later in the week when the

(52:46):
books take bigger dollar amounts and bet the Detroit Lions
much much heavier.

Speaker 2 (52:51):
Right.

Speaker 4 (52:52):
The Lions, to me are the right side. I think
there's a.

Speaker 5 (52:55):
Difference between teams that are playing perfect games and teams
that are are fundamentally as close to perfect as you
can get. And I like to bet looking inside out.
I like to bet offensive line first, and the offensive
line for the Detroit Lions is just dominant they are,
and I think the past few weeks, and we talked

(53:15):
about this last week with the Lions and the Cowboys,
they have figured out how to play physical, violent football.
They've gotten out of the way of sort of trying
to figure out if Jared Goff going to wins the game. No,
the offensive line is going to wins the game. Running
the ball is going to win us the game. Jared
Goff will then perform off of those situations that we
have set up for him. So offensively, I think this

(53:38):
is a much better team, and I do think Jared
Goff and Ben Johnson will know how to scheme against
Brian Flores, whose defense has been great, and the offensive
line will protect against the pass rush that Flores has
been great at generating. The worst unit on this field
is going to be the Vikings offense. So if there
is any diminished performance from the Lions because of Aden Hutchinson,

(54:00):
I do think it's somewhat mitigated by the fact they're
not playing a lights out offense and we're all looking
to sell the Vikings. We're trying to figure it out, right,
when are we going to sell the Vikings? A lot
of wise guys think this is the week.

Speaker 1 (54:16):
Okay. I on Monday on the Herd on FS one
and iHeartRadio, I said I'm taking the Rams at five.
The line will move up dramatically. It's the rare mistake
by Vegas McVeigh Stafford off a buy. They're getting healthier.
The Raiders made a true trade for getting rid of
Devonte Adams, so it makes it even tastier. But I

(54:38):
think Devonte Adams leaving sends a real message. The Max
Crosby rumors don't help. They're saying he won't be traded.
But it's not a great locker room right now. And
the Raiders are not a team that needs to win
because they're not going to. It's a distracted team with
bad mojo. The Rams now need to go on a street.
They're healthier, better, coach better. In fact, it's the biggest

(55:01):
coach quarterback mismatch on the board this week. I have
it at minus five sharper square.

Speaker 5 (55:07):
If you have it at five, that is incredible and
it's sharp, and you should hold on to that like
it's a cugly teddy bear, because that line does not
exist like it's at six and a half in most places.
So if you can get a five, or if you
have a five, if you can book a five, take
the five.

Speaker 4 (55:25):
At six and a half.

Speaker 5 (55:26):
It's not a number that I would want to really
lean into for the Rams. The truth is if at
six and a half, I might even lean Raiders. I
agree with you about Stafford and McVeigh. Nobody really trusts
Aidan O'Connell. But the line bumped up for two reasons.
One expectation that Cooper Cup might come back. They did

(55:47):
think he could come back in week seven, and because
the Raiders got blown out by the Steelers. But if
you look at that box score, that game was close.
It was seven to six at the end of the
first half. It was twelve seven when and then three
consecutive series fluky things happened to give the Steelers a
huge lead. And even then the Raiders had opportunities to

(56:10):
come back, and they were called back for penalties. They
fumbled on the one yard line after they had scored
a touchdown that was called back. So the game was
closer than the score of peer. So I think six
and a half is too much. Seattle plus a field
goal and Atlanta is interesting. The Seahawks are getting healthy.

(56:30):
I know you have a luck rating, and the Saints
were called unlucky. I do think Atlanta's had a few
breaks go their way and they're a tad overvalued. I
think they win their division, but I actually think even
the game against Tampa Bay that they won in overtime,
I kind of felt most of the game Tampa was
better and has a higher ceiling. I kind of like
Seattle in the spot. They've been a funky mess defensively

(56:53):
and you think they're not very good. Now they're finally
getting their best defenders back and Gino Smith.

Speaker 1 (57:01):
Atlanta has no pass rush. They have really good receivers.
I like Seattle in the points Sharper square.

Speaker 5 (57:08):
Ish at two and a half, the wise guys are
playing the Falcons. At three, they might play Seattle, they
won't play Atlanta. They were kind of hoping it would
get to three and a half so they could play
Atlanta if they like Seattle. It's because of everything you
just said to getting a little bit healthier. Atlanta can't
generate a pass rush. The Falcons could just as easily

(57:34):
be zero to six right now. Right and we talked
about this last week. The games they have won. Three
games that they won, they had a five percent chance
to win those games, sometimes with less than thirty seconds left,
and they still won those games. So there has been
a lot of sort of luck involved in their season

(57:55):
so far.

Speaker 4 (57:56):
So that is due. They are due for aggression there.

Speaker 5 (57:58):
Even last week against the Panthers, I and tail Andy
Dalton threw that pick yes, right into his territory and
then the Falcons went on an e four yard drive.
The Panthers were running all over them, and they had
a chance to be very close in that game, if
not win it out right. So it's a it's a
this is a number play entirely. Two and a half

(58:20):
Atlanta three or more Seattle.

Speaker 1 (58:22):
Okay, one of my favorite bets of the week, and
it was before Devonte Adams. I'll take the Jets one
as one and a half. The Steelers are a mess.
They don't even know who their quarterback is. I think
the Jets are an excellent two and four team if
they could kick field goals. Think about this, If it
wasn't for Taylor rap making two remarkable plays at safety
jarring the ball loose, and if it wasn't for Tarron

(58:44):
Johnson making honestly and Ed Reid level interception like one
of the great plays of the year. Jets win that game.
Aaron played well, they ran the ball. They had seventy
two percent motion twenty five percent with NTA Hacket the
week before. I think the Jets are a really really
undervalued two four team. Their high profile the game is

(59:05):
stand alone. You think they're no good. They really should
have beaten the Bills. Sharper square totally sharp. They like
it for everything you just said. The reason they really
like it.

Speaker 5 (59:17):
Is because the indications are Russell Wilson will be the
starting quarterback. And you can't find anybody who really understands
the logic in that call, unless it's just Mike Tomlin
living up to a promise that he gave to Russell
Wilson that he would be a starting quarterback. He really
shouldn't be. And now you're getting Russell Wilson at a

(59:37):
time where they've already lost their right guard, James Daniels,
who was graded as the best guard in the NFL
before his achilles was injured, and then last week they
lost Zach Fraser, who was greater as the fourth best
center according to Pro Football Focus in the NFL, which
is one of the reasons why their running game had
been so powerful and they could get away with justin
fields not being very good. So now you're getting rid

(59:59):
of who are the best offensive linemen in the NFL.
That is the strength of your team, and you're putting
in a quarterback who is not nearly as mobile, yet
he's going to have more pressure because the strength of
the Jets defense is the interior of their defensive line.
So forget about Aaron Rodgers, forget about DeVante Adams. The
reason why professional betters are leaning the Jets is because

(01:00:21):
of those interior factors. And again, those are the things
that don't get as discussed in sort of the larger platforms,
but that's what the betters are looking at. It's what's
happening at the center of the Steelers line and who
the quarterback is going to be much more than Devanta Adams.
And you've seen this number go up even though the

(01:00:41):
majority of the bets have actually come in on the Steelers,
but the money the professionals have come in on the Jets.

Speaker 1 (01:00:48):
So I never bet against Lamar Jackson in the NFC,
but at three and a half points, I do like
Tampa at home. I think Tampa may be the most
underrated team in the league. I mean Baker Mayfield. He'll
give you a little wiggle. Fourteen of his fifteen touchdowns
from the pocket. He and Chris Godwin are humming. They
have a three pronged run game, Tucker, Bucky, Irving White,

(01:01:13):
like three legitimate running backs. And that is a team
that even in games they've lost, you look up and think, oh,
this this is probably the better team. If I get
the hook, I'm taking Tampa here. Also, Ravens have been
back to back very emotional games. I think you know

(01:01:34):
they always beat the NFC, but sharper square, I'd go
I'd go the hook in Tampa.

Speaker 5 (01:01:39):
One hundred percent sharp. And this was this line opened
at four and a half. What's really interesting is you
talked about sort of the performance of the public last
week by saying betting on the better quarterback. Right, last
week the public went ten three and one. The public
in the five weeks prior had had the worst start

(01:01:59):
of the season it it ever had. And just for clarity,
when I talk about the public, I mean amateur betters
who tend to bet favorites and tend to bet the
favorites to cover. Right, So you're talking about teams like
the Ravens or the Chiefs or you know, in this case,
last week, the Lions. Normally the public does not win.

(01:02:20):
So the public is all over the Ravens this week.
And when that happens, bookmakers, when the public really cashes in,
bookmakers know amateur betters are fat and happy. They're going
to take the money they won the week before. They
are going to go to the sports book. They are
going to bet the favorites again because hey, I just
want how hard can this be? I just won betting

(01:02:40):
the Ravens to win by a touchdown against the Commanders,
and they did it. So now they're going to come
back and you can see, like the Bucks game, it
opened at four and a half, it immediately got that
down to three and a half. That's because the wise
guys came in on the Bucks and they still like
the Bucks. Baker's the key here. What Baker can do
thrown across the middle to Godwin and Mike Evans hopefully,

(01:03:02):
because he did have a little bit of a soft
tissue injury and so there is some concern he might
not play, but assuming he will, what Baker can do
across the field in middle of the field against a
coverage unit in the Ravens that is bottom third in
the league, and a pass defense that is giving up
the second most passing yards per game in the NFL.

(01:03:24):
The only team worse is the Jaguars. This is a
recipe for Baker to keep this game close. Or Colin,
it's a recipe for Baker to break our hurt with
an interception when the team is down by ten and
we need him to score a touchdown to cover the
back door.

Speaker 1 (01:03:38):
Yeah, he's done both. Let's talk about something really really important.
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(01:04:02):
happen in life unexpectedly. Submitting an injury claim with Morgan
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NFL is hard. We know that quarterbacking in the NFL
is hard, Submitting a claim is easy. You're ever injured,
check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free unless
they win. For more information, go to for the People
dot com slash Colin or dial pound law from your

(01:04:26):
cell phone. Pretty easy. That's for the people dot com
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your cell Morgan and Morgan has a proven track record
of fighting for you to get a full and fair
compensation if there's an unexpected accident in your life. This
is a paid advertisement. There's always a game. I want

(01:04:47):
your I feel mildly interested, but I want your conviction
and your insight. The last the only time the Texans
have really played awful this year was when they traveled
north and face Minnesota and it was a lot of
Brian Flores and CJ. Stroud acknowledging I don't even know
what I saw. I like Green Bay. I've never loved
their defense. Texans getting three. I've got Joe Mixon back

(01:05:11):
a run component. I want your opinion on this. It's
telling me to bet Texans, but I think Jordan Love
is such a special player. But Demiko Ryans could do
a Brian Flores to Jordan Love like Flores did to
C J. Stroud. Tell me that Texans is the right side.

Speaker 4 (01:05:29):
It's not. This is one of those number plays.

Speaker 5 (01:05:32):
There's plenty of places where you can get the Packers
at minus two and a half, and the wise guys
are betting the Packers at two and a half. And
what really tells you the wise guys are betting the
Packers at two and a half is the way the
money is split.

Speaker 4 (01:05:48):
Again, public is all over the Texas.

Speaker 5 (01:05:52):
You can see that the money is coming in on
the Packers, and that's what's fascinating here.

Speaker 4 (01:05:57):
So it's a really hard game.

Speaker 5 (01:06:00):
There has been a huge debate in the professional betting
community about which is the right side. But if you're
getting the Packers at two and a half, people want
to make that bet.

Speaker 4 (01:06:10):
The professionals want to make that bet.

Speaker 1 (01:06:13):
What's the game I'm missing? It's usually egregiously uncomfortable to watch.
It's a corner of a corner TV game. What is it?

Speaker 5 (01:06:19):
Well, I'm a little surprised we didn't talk about the
Chiefs and the Niners at all.

Speaker 1 (01:06:24):
I will not bet against Andy reid Off of Bye.
My heart tells me the Niners are eventually going to
win one of these games. Brock Purty is actually today
playing better than Mahomes. So my gut is the Niners
are the side. But betting against Andy Reid off a
bye is like these days betting against Otaani with men

(01:06:44):
on base. I'm not interested.

Speaker 5 (01:06:46):
Yeah, not only that, betting against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog.

Speaker 1 (01:06:50):
I mean, he's like ten and three or something.

Speaker 4 (01:06:52):
It's it's ridiculous. So I'm glad.

Speaker 5 (01:06:56):
I'm glad because the answer would be there is no answer,
and it's what you just said. It's a heart and
a head game. In your head, it's like the Super
Bowl last year. In your head, the Niners have the
better roster. The Niners should win this game outright, But
Patrick Mahomes some like you make your own luck, right,
even this year, they've been lucky in so many spots,

(01:07:19):
and you have to say to yourself, of course this
is going to end. It can't continue to be this way.
But it's Patrick Mahomes who finds a way to get
out of the pocket, find Travis Kelcey in his zone.
When Travis Kelcey hasn't caught two passes the entire game.
All of a sudden, the last drive they need a
field goal. They're driving down the field, they get the
field goal. Quirky things happen, so it's a really hard game,

(01:07:40):
Like people don't want to really invest in this game.
I mean, I almost like I'm sick to my stomach
telling you this. But the Wise guys are all over
the Browns now plums. Yeah, plus five and a half
against the Bengals and oh, I know, I know.

Speaker 1 (01:08:01):
Oh Crows. I mean they just traded to MARII Cooper.

Speaker 5 (01:08:07):
Well, look, so what happened was this line was at
five and a half, and the Wise guys were already
trending towards the brown.

Speaker 1 (01:08:12):
Now this is at Cleveland getting five and a half
against Cincinnati and burrough.

Speaker 5 (01:08:17):
Yes, and so when Mark Cooper was traded Tuesday afternoon,
this line immediately shot up to six and a half.
Do you know who's not worth a point against the
points bread? Amari Cooper. Do you know who else isn't
worth a point against the point spread? Aiden Hutchinson. There
is nobody in the NFL who is worth a point

(01:08:40):
against this point spread unless it's a quarterback. Anyone else
is a half a point. That's it, Amari Cooper. The
Browns should get points back for trading Amari Cooper. That's
how the Wise guys look at this. So they bought
the Browns at six and a half. They bought the
Browns again at six it's back down to five and
a half. There's a lot of stuff that they like

(01:09:03):
about betting the Browns. The Browns have not had an
offensive line that was healthy this entire year. This weekend,
they should be getting Jack Conklin back. That's huge for
their offensive line. Nick Chubb should be back. I'm not
saying Nick Chubb makes them a much more superior team,
but it does give them an opportunity to start playing

(01:09:24):
a little bit more, like Kevin Stefanski wants to play
these games and take the ball out of Shaun Watson's hands.
At the very least, maybe Deshaun Watson won't be staring
at the pass rush because he won't be so afraid
because Jack Conklin is playing again. So I do like
that that is happening. There's some good health things on
the offense side of the ball, and their defense is
getting healthier too. And you got a top five pass

(01:09:46):
rush defense, you got Miles Garrett in a divisional game.
In this situation with the Bengals team, that still isn't
that good, right? They shouldn't be a five and a
half point favorite, it's terrible. Well, you don't want to
bet the bad quarterback against one of the best quarterbacks.

Speaker 4 (01:10:05):
I'm not asking you to do it. I'm just telling
you what the professionals are doing.

Speaker 1 (01:10:09):
So are you saying the wise guys like Kansas City
plus one and a half against San Francisco completely split?

Speaker 5 (01:10:17):
It is like you have the guys who are just
like you who refuse to bet against Patrick Mahomes. In fact,
they would rather take their shot and bet on Patrick Mahomes.
They don't want to be watching the end of the
game and seeing Patrick Mahomes have the ball and know
they should have bet on him and have not bet
on him. But what's been interesting is the Chiefs are

(01:10:38):
a very public road underdog. That is not a great
situation to be on the side of. If you're a professional,
if you're a better right, you want to be against
the public in most situations. This number has been kind
of staying at one and a half, which tells you
that the wise guys have been coming in on the Niners.

(01:11:00):
So if they're closing their eyes looking at rosters, looking
at data, they're betting the Niners. If they're eyes wide
open seeing who's on the field they're betting the chiefs.

Speaker 1 (01:11:13):
Chad Millman, Sharper Square CEO, Action Network. All odds provided
by DraftKings. As always, my friend, thank you.

Speaker 5 (01:11:21):
Great to see you buddy the volume.

Speaker 1 (01:11:26):
Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,
take a moment rate and review

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Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Aaron Rodgers Final Season? Cowboys Crippled, Rookie Franchise Quarterbacks, Betting NFL Week 7!

Episode Transcript

Host

Colin Cowherd

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Aaron Rodgers Final Season? Cowboys Crippled, Rookie Franchise Quarterbacks, Betting NFL Week 7!