Colin reacts to the Eagles beating the Commanders on Thursday Night Football!
He declares Saquon Barkley the Eagles “savior” and explains why the devaluing of the running back position was never going to last (4:00). Then, he argues that Jayden Daniels may have hit the “rookie wall” after a blistering start to the season (11:30).
Finally, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 11 of the NFL slate.
25:00 - Steelers vs Ravens
27:15 - Packers vs Bears
30:00 - Colts vs Jets
32:15 - Rams vs Pats
35:00 - Bills vs Chiefs
44:15 - Chargers vs Bengals
47:15 - Falcons vs Broncos
50:45 - Saints vs Browns
52:45 - Seahawks vs 49ers
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.)
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
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Speaker 1 (01:19):
All right, Chad Milman is going to stop on By
in about ten minutes. That was a tough watch. Thursday
Night Football twenty six eighteen. Philadelphia played like crap in
the first half and came back to win. Let's be
honest behind Saquon Barkley this. You know, Philadelphia is such
a talented team, but I think what tonight honestly look
(01:41):
like You're getting into week ten, week eleven, it's a
short week. Philadelphia looked tired. Philadelphia look beat up. They
look tired. You know, division rivalry games are usually pretty physical.
I think it's disturbing how Philadelphia, much better roster than Washington,
couldn't get anything going in the first half. You know,
(02:03):
it wasn't until the last final drives when you know
they kind of cut loose. It's just you have to
be a better football team than that. Eagles are six
and zero when Saquon Barkley rushes for one hundred plus yards,
so he's completely changed the offense Jalen Hurts, and there
were times tonight in the first half when Jalen Hurts
missed AJ Brown badly. I'm like a twelve fifteen yard out,
(02:27):
and you know, he's just the savior of the offense.
I find it remarkable. You know, nobody in the NFL
loves the trade to their rivals. It's sort of a
no no, you know, to me, as long as you're
not trading like your best player. It is unbelievable. The
New York Giants allowed and it was the most predictable
thing in the world. Saquon Barkley, their best player by
(02:47):
a lot, to go to the Philadelphia Eagles. Jesus. I mean,
that's just not good GMing. And I don't know if
the Giants are going to clean house. But that's the
kind of thing that gets you fired. And Barkley's a
remarkable player, you know. You know, it's really cracks me up.
The media overreacts to everything, and a lot of it
is the media is much younger than it used to be.
(03:09):
Is that the media, you know, companies now don't have
the money, especially traditional media. You know, they're going to
get young and cheap in the media. So a lot
of times the media is thirty one years old, twenty
eight years old. Their reaction to stuff is like it's
never happened before. But that's their life. You know, I've
been doing this so long now, and I'm believing that's
(03:32):
not a humble brag, you know, it's it's sometimes I
look at the media and I think, guys, this is
it's everything cyclical. I mean virtually politics is cyclical. Everything
is cyclical. Tech, the industry is not very old, but
it feels cyclical. You get ups and downs. Everybody overreacts
to everything. And earlier this year, you know, or was
(03:56):
it last year the off season, there was this big
complaint that running backs are not getting paid, and it's like,
take a deep breath. Safeties have never been paid. You
tight ends have always been underpaid. Interior offensive linemen don't
get paid unless you're the la rams. They pay theirs.
Running Backs are always going to be valuable because a
(04:17):
running back is essential for a young quarterback. For instance,
all quarterbacks are better. I mean, Jalen Hurts is not
a kid anymore, but all quarterbacks are better the good
running back. Well, quarterbacks the most essential piece in the league. Secondly,
running backs, whether gets harsh, whether it gets colder, it
(04:39):
gets windier. November December, January, running games become more essential.
Not to mention, you know, our running back is such
a great piece, not just not just to set the
tempo of a team, but when you lead, and good
teams lead, and so a lot of times are running
back eats up the clock. So good teams are always
(05:02):
going to want a good running back. I mean, Philadelphia
is a good team. Excellent running back Isaah pa Checo
when he comes back, will be so valuable to the
Kansas City Chiefs. James Cook for the Buffalo Bills has
changed everything. Dereck Henry for the Ravens. I mean, look
at Cincinnati, one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
Let Joe Mixon go. Bengals would die for a twelve
play drive nine runs with Joe Mixon to keep their
(05:25):
awful defense off the field. The Detroit Lions have two
excellent running backs. So this idea that running backs were
going to you know, disappear into the ether. The reports
I said this on FS one I set up multiple
times take a deep breath. There was always going to
be a market for Austin Eckler. You know, Washington's like, hey,
(05:45):
we need you. You don't have to get thirty carries,
but we need you. So there's excellent young running backs
in the league. And Saquon Barkley is so valuable. This
is a team that's good. They often play with the league,
and he was like a closer tonight. He was just
so dependable late in the football game. I will say,
if these are two of the best teams in the NFC,
(06:07):
then the AFC is still superior to the NFC. But
I also think Jalen Hurts allows Saquon Barkley, excuse me,
allows Jalen Hurts to throw less in a six game
winning streak. He's only had two turnovers. So Jalen Hurts
can throw twenty two times. He didn't have to throw
thirty four times. So it frustrates me sometimes. And I
(06:31):
see this in the political media. You know, to the
Trump election. It's listen, the election was decided by a
million six votes or something like that in the country
of three hundred and fifty million people. And you can
see from the appointees, you know, Trump Trump is almost
going to be a polarizing personality and a polarizing president.
You know, he'll create great passion from the blue team.
(06:53):
You go to the midterm elections, the Senate, the House,
things change. It's just, you know, nothing, nothing lasts forever.
So running backs are very, very valuable. I also think,
you know, it's like in the NBA. Remember it was
the small ball league and everybody got small, and then
here comes Jokis and here comes Giannis, and you know,
(07:14):
the Boston Celtics are like, let's get a big, let's
get Poor Zingis. And now you know, with the emergence
of some of these young stars like a Wemby, you
just have to have size. You're just in the NBA,
you're just not gonna win a championship. I mean, the
Julius Randalls Sea, We'll take Karl Anthony Towns. We need
more size if we want to match up with Jiannis,
(07:34):
Embiid and Poor Zingis in the East. I mean, it's
amazing how many true big men. Anthony Davis is the
best player in the Lakers, Jannis on Milwaukee, Jokic, Wemby,
There's all sorts of good players. Check Holmgren such a
good player for Okay, so he's not as good as SGA,
but a great player. So I mean one team Minnesota,
(07:55):
I mean it has been kind of reboot as a
franchise before Karl Anthony town got traded because they went
and got Rudy Gobert and Karl Anthony Towns. They went
and got two centers. Everything, everything over time either re emerges, emerges, regresses.
To the mean, take a deep breath, It's all going
to be okay, you know. I also think what's happening
(08:18):
last weekend was a great weekend for underdogs. And I
thought tonight when Washington I couldn't you couldn't figure the
first half out. I mean you look at the stats.
Washington never had the football. They had the football eleven
minutes and they led, and it was one of these
football games You're like, what's happening here? Philadelphia so much better, Jacksonville,
Minnesota last weekend? Minnesota was so much better San Francisco
(08:40):
and Tampa last week and go to the box score
in that game. So what you're finding is a lot
of these superior football teams. They're injured, they're beat up,
they're playing some backups, they're tired. You know, a lot
of the better football teams in the NFL, they have
older players, players just out of their prime. Week ten,
week eleven, week twelve. Listen. I like Jayden Daniels, and
(09:04):
let's talk about this, but he's hit a bit of
a rookie wall. And last year C. J. Stroud had
a three game stretch and we all like him where
he completed fifty seven percent of his throws. So Jaden
Daniels comes in, has a little Lamar Jackson field. Nobody
has any film, nobody has in the NFL film. I mean,
you're just kind of okay. You go back and look
at the LSU film. I mean, you don't you don't
(09:24):
know really what you get. And then Cliff Kingsbury with
Jayden Daniels brand new. So you get four five weeks
and you're like, oh, then you know, then they lose
to a Baltimore and I played Pittsburgh a couple of
weeks ago and they lose to a Pittsburgh. And now
they lose to a Philadelphia. So some teams Washington I
had as a wildcard team coming into the season. Some
teams it takes a while to figure them out. And
(09:47):
I think more than any team in the NFL. That's Washington.
They come in with a fastball, nobody's seen it. Kingsbury's
got a new offense and a new quarterback, and everybody's
kind of just you just you need more film, and
then all of a sudden you kind of figure out
what they are, what they're not. You see their offensive line,
you know, into the season. Going into the season, we
all said about the Commanders. Don't know if I like
(10:08):
the offensive line. You know, they kind of fool people early,
some smoking mirrors. I mean, they're just picking up seven
yards a chunk, but they can't sustain it because they
really don't have good enough. You know. I like their
running backs, but I mean Terry McLaurin in the first
half didn't even see a target, you know. So people
take Terry McLaurin out, and it's a pretty weak wide
receiving crew and it's a pretty average offensive line. And
(10:30):
now everybody's got all the tape, and so I think
he's going to be I think I think Jayden Daniels
has been a home run or you know, Rookie of
the Year all that stuff. But this is the reality.
C J. Stroud, you know, hit a wall and had
some games where you know, the game speeds up. The
other thing is what happens is like a young quarterback
(10:53):
maybe has a favorite receiver, you know, maybe relies you know,
more on a running back, and then people start getting
dinged up in week nine and ten and eleven, and
now you know Jaden Daniels doesn't have all the components
he needs, and so you know, then Cliff Kingsbury has
certain things He's not gonna run, certain plays, certain sets,
(11:16):
so you know on insert day, you know, and this
is a short week anyway, you know, you're just you're
limited on what you have. And I think that's what
you're seeing. I think you're seeing a young quarterback and
it just steps. Everything for these young quarterbacks is steps.
You No, Bowe Nicks started slowly, but he has an
offensive head coach and one of the great ones in
(11:36):
Sean Payton. He keeps getting better and better. Whereas the
element of surprise, what the heck is Jaden Daniels and
you're guessing and he's so electric and so athletic. He
was just he was picking up yards with his feet.
Nothing quite like him. Looks a little like Lamar in
the NFC and now we're seeing people have a track.
(11:58):
Doesn't mean it's like a little bit like Lamar Jackson.
I mean Lamar's first full year starting MVP, but he
would have trouble in some division games as teams in
his division like Pittsburgh or Cincinnati had seen Lamar Jackson
multiple times. Remember Lamar's first year. He comes in late
week eleven, he beats the Chargers, and he has to
face him again in the playoffs and he loses the Chargers.
(12:19):
I remember talking to Tom Telesco, the GM of the
Chargers at the time, and he said, you know you
first time you face him, Yeah, I mean you just don't.
Because you can watch all the film you want, you
have no idea how fast he is, how twitchy he is,
how quick he sees and thinks and reacts. And then
the second time you face him, Okay, we're going to
take away this, that's his fastball. We're taking away that
(12:42):
force him to go to his second and his third receiver.
And then you he's still tough to beat. But you
can ask Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson has struggled in his career.
I don't think he's had a great record with against
the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Tomlin. They always have a good defense.
They see him multiple times a year, they know all
the tricks, and so I think Jayden Daniels will be
(13:02):
a very effective quarterback for teams that don't face him
a lot. But for a Philadelphia that's well run, good
pieces that sees him twice a year, you know he
may have through the years, he may have trouble with
the Eagles, but still love him. It's a pretty good
quarterback class. A few years ago we had the class
with Jalen Hurts and Tua and Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert.
(13:22):
This quarterback class, JJ McCarthy looked really really good in
the preseason. Preseason, but he looked really good. And Bo
Nicks looks good, and Jayden Daniels looks good. And I
do believe Kayleb Williams will eventually get it right or
closer to what he's going to be. He had a
good three game stretcher earlier this season. Kayleb Williams was
seventy four percent completion percentage three games. But again, now
(13:45):
people are getting taped. Now they see what Caleb can't do.
Then all of a sudden you have a wide receiver
that stinged up, just steps, just a process. Jaden's going
to be great. I thought Philadelphia and I they just
looked they were a little tired, little beat up, but
they came back to be the inferior roster twenty six
to eighteen. Nick Ceriani, I still cannot get over. I
(14:10):
don't believe they've scored on the opening drive this year.
Offensive coach Sakwon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Davonte Smith,
good old line. That's just odd to me. Just Philadelphia
is such a unique franchise. And maybe I'm loopy because
this game put me to sleep, but they're the only
(14:30):
franchise that makes constant coaching changes. You're never quite in
love with the coach. And yet I think it's a
top five organization in the NFL. Everybody else, like Kansas
City feels so stable, Baltimore feels so stable, Philadelphia is
a little rocky and turbulent. I mean, how many coordinators
(14:51):
have they had. I mean they're on their third offensive
coordinator in three years. They're constantly rotating through coordinators, coaches,
a few years back, quarterbacks. But yet I don't see
them like the New York Jets the New York Giants.
As a reactionary, I tend to think they're proactive, smart owner,
smart GM. I didn't love them firing Chip Kelly, but
(15:14):
at the time I felt like Chip Kelly's got a
winning record. But you know what we found out in
San Francisco. Chip's more of a college guy than a
pro guy. So they knew something in the building that
we didn't. Even though they went ten and six ten
and six first two years with pretty average quarterback play,
they knew something. They saw something Carson Wentz. They signed
him to a big deal, and then they know they
kind of moved off him, and you're thinking, what are
(15:35):
you doing here? You just sign them to do a
big deal. They kind of knew something. You know, they
know things in the building. They keep it to themselves,
and they react proactively, very strongly. And so Philadelphia once again,
I mean, this offense with Jalen Hurts has been one
of two things, turnover prone and awful, or when Nick
(15:56):
Sirianni moves back and lets his oc run things excellent.
There's nothing in between. It's either been you know, like
right now, it's powerful. It's a powerful offense with a
great old line at Saquon Barkley six and zero are
the Eagles when Saquon rushes for one hundred or more
completely change the offense of Philadelphia. Okay, this weekend, there's
(16:16):
some interesting things tonight Jake Paul, Mike Tyson. Saturday, John
Jones UFC fight. Good weekend. Good. Anytime you can get
a fight on a Friday and a Saturday into a
big football weekend excellent. Chad Melman's next All right, there's
(16:37):
never been a night quite like this. On Friday, November fifteenth,
Netflix and Most Valuable Promotions bring you the highly anticipated
boxing mega event of the year. Jake el Gaio Paul
will go toe to toe in the ring against Iron
Mike Tyson, for a long time, the baddest man on
the planet. When a disruptor challenges a legend, anything can happen.
Also that night, historic rematch between the Brave Bomb Katie
(17:01):
Taylor and Amanda The Real Deal Toronto. The last time
they met in the ring, history was made. Women's boxing
was catapulted in new hypes.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
Though.
Speaker 1 (17:08):
These are the fights the world's been waiting for. Don't
miss these epic showdowns. It is live from at and
T Stadium, in Arlington, Texas. Watch Paul Versus Tyson Friday
November fifteenth, eight pm Eastern, five BM Pacific live on Netflix.
You can also follow the road to the Fight by
watching Countdown Paul Versus Tyson, a three part documentary series
(17:29):
beginning November twelfth, only on Netflix. Time for another edition
of Sharp or Square. He's a host at the Action Network.
All of our odds are always provided by Draftings Sportsbook.
All right, Chad Melman, there are certain games I just
(17:50):
want to watch and not bet. But I would take
the Steelers plus points hosting the Ravens. The number is
three and a half. It's one of the bets of
the weekend. At three, I still think I take it.
I think George Pickens and Mike Williams attack the Ravens weakness.
Baltimore is one of those teams and this is rare.
With a great team, they can outplay you and then
(18:13):
get beat by The Raiders, can get beat by inferior teams.
They're so bad on the back end. And I think
Pittsburgh's a real story here. I think it's the Seahawks.
Light Russell's not what's what he was was, But in
this rivalry even a field goal. I'm taking the point
Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (18:32):
Well, it's totally sharp, and you've nailed it from a
couple of different directions. Won the matchup the wise guy
seed exactly the way you do. We've been watching it
all year with the Ravens where they're letting teams in
the back door, right. We saw it with the Commanders,
they were down a significant amount, they came back, they
came back and they were able to cover that game.
(18:53):
We saw it with the Bengals who were up so
much because they were able to attack the back end
of the Ravens defense. And don't forget, no Kyle Humphrey
in this game. Kyle Humphrey is one of their, if
not their best defender, and now that secondary is going
to be even worse. The overarching theme here and this
is the reason why professionals are on it. Don't forget
(19:15):
this game opened at three and a half, it is
settled at three. The wise guys are still on it.
But look in the regular season, in this game, in
this matchup the past twenty years, when the line is
three or more, the underdog twenty two four and three,
underdog fifteen to two and one. Since two thousand and
(19:35):
fifteen in the regular season, when Mike Tomlin fases John Harbaugh,
the underdog in this matchup twenty three, six and three,
and then you go into Mike Tomlin, the most profitable
coach as an underdog in the past twenty years in
the NFL. And by the way, John Harbaugh when he's
a favorite is not nearly as good as when he's
(19:57):
a dog in this matchup. So there is a reason,
and there is also historical reasons to consider the Steelers
at plus three. You're sure.
Speaker 1 (20:08):
You know I like the number four and five. So
Greg Cosell said something on my show today that had
influence over me. This was going to be a stay
away game. But the Packers offensive coach off of by
at Chicago and what Greg Cosell said, it's not a
Shane Waldron issue. Much like Justin Fields or Zach Wilson,
Caleb Williams is not seeing coverage. He's not seeing it.
(20:30):
He is not able to see something, spot it, get
the ball out quickly. Green Bay I think has its
most aggressive defense in years. I love the Boston College coach.
I think he's been a really nice fit for them.
Under the radar, low Key really knows his side of
the ball. It's five. I would take Green Bay. I
(20:50):
know it's a division rivalry game, but good organization coach
Jordan loves healthier sharper square.
Speaker 3 (20:58):
So the wise guys have been on the Bears in
this game. It's moved from six to five and a
half to now five in some places. I agree with
you for what it's worth for me, this is a
pass or it's the Packers. I think there's so much
dysfunction with the Bears, and the reason why the wise
guys are taking them right now is because they believe
(21:20):
this is bottomed down right. It's gotten as bad as
it can get. In the locker room, it can't get
any worse. Whether you believe the players were responsible for
getting Shane Waldron fired, DJ Moore said that didn't happen,
Whether you believe that the system can now get a
little bit less complex and easier for Kayleb Williams, whether
you believe that they're getting two offensive linemen back, which
(21:42):
they are and will make him feel more comfortable in
the pocket. This team has been full of chaos, and
so the wise guys are betting, literally that it cannot
get any worse. In a division game against their rival
at home. The flip side is entirely about what the
Packers can do. They have been very opportunistic as a
(22:05):
defense this year, a lot of interceptions. They cannot rush
the passer, but what they can do offensively, and this
is where Matt laflor has been a genius figure out
how to best take advantage of what the Bears are
bad at on defense. The Bears are not a very
good rushing defense. We've seen what Matt Lafleor does with
someone like Josh Jacobs when he knows he doesn't have
Jordan Love, he just figures out creative ways to get
(22:27):
the running game in motion. He will likely do that
against the Bears. Also, Matt lafleur seven and three when
favored by four points or more. Over the past two decades,
road favorites off of a buy covered a sixty percent clip.
Road favorites of five and a half or more cover
it a seventy percent clip. So there's lots of reasons to
(22:48):
like the Packers here. The wise guys, I think the
right side is the Bears.
Speaker 1 (22:53):
So Journey had a song years ago and one of
the lyrics is I can't stop loving you, and I
feel that's odds makers on the Jets. This is a
bad test. How in God's name were they they favored
at Arizona? It was never competitive, Colts getting over a
field goal. So Anthony Richardson, I'm tired. I'm going to
(23:13):
go to the sidelines. Not a smart move. It's not
punishable by a month on the bench. He learned his
lesson when he's healthy. He's kind of a fascinating player
that's hard to defend because you have nobody in practice
that can duplicate. He's a defensive end that plays quarterback.
He's a huge, tackle breaking tornado of activity. That's not
(23:34):
a great quarterback. But I'm taking the points here all day.
Sharper Square.
Speaker 3 (23:41):
It's a fifty to fifty game right now. And I
agree with you. You think about Journey, I think that
same way when I think about offensive lines who are really,
really physical, and the Colts offensive line when it comes
to run blocking is super physical in the NFL, and
we saw this last week. I loved the Colts last
(24:03):
week against the Bills at home, and if not from
Joe Flacco and three turnovers and if not for getting
sacked when it's fourth and inches. I know, if not for,
if not for, if not for, then all of a sudden,
I'm playing in the NFL. But the point is they
ran the ball on the Bills. They had more than
one hundred and twenty yards rushing and Jonathan Taylor went
(24:23):
for more than one hundred and average five and a
half yards per carry, so they were able to do
exactly what they wanted to do against the Bills. The
Jets defense from a rushing perspective is worse than the
Bills rush defense, and the team overall is much worse
than the Bills are. And now you're getting Anthony Richardson.
Back to your point, this is a better opportunity for
(24:45):
Shane Steichen to let everybody run with the ball and
dominate the Jets, who if you watched last week against
the Cardinals, they were afraid to tackle anybody. This is
not a physical defense, and they have gotten so much
worse since Robert Silo was fired. So the line moved
down from four to three and a half, from actually
from four and a half to four to three and
(25:06):
a half, indicating that the wise guys were on the Colts.
It's come back a little bit on the on the Jets,
and so now it's settled at for the majority of
wise guys are with you and they will be in
the Colts.
Speaker 1 (25:19):
Well. A Rams minus four and a half that key
number of game at New England, so very rarely is
have I ever seen a Sean McVay team out coached.
It felt like they were out schemed early. It was
like an I thought it was an embarrassing game for
Sean McVay and it was hard to digest because the Dolphins,
a poor pass rushing team without blitzing, just rushing four
(25:42):
were getting relentless pressure. And my take is good coaches
and good quarterbacks have stinkers. The Rams are getting healthy.
That was not the Rams. They were playing very good.
It's a short week. I think New England now are
all buying to Drake May. This Rams defense is really good. Now.
Drake May is not Tua. He's not They don't have
(26:03):
those weapons. They're not going to listen to. Rams brought
some people and they got burned on third down because
Tua is a really good NFL quarterback. I'd swallowed the
four and a half here take the Ram sharper square.
Speaker 3 (26:15):
So it's been square, and I got to tell you.
We've talked about executive decisions before. I don't know why
the wise guys are on the Patriots here. It doesn't
make any sense to me at all. This is a
bilo on the better team, sell high on the worst
team situation. Why would you be betting the Patriots who
(26:37):
are so high on life after beating up on the
Bears on the road a franchise tying record nine sacks
against Caleb Williams. And look, I watched that game obviously,
the Rams and the Dolphins too. I looked at it
a little differently. The Rams have five field goals. The
Rams red zone this season has been atrocious, and to me,
(26:59):
that was sort of the bottoming out right. Every time
they got close, it was a sack, it was a
botch snap, it was a fumble, it was a mistake.
And then there were a couple times defensively, you know,
they had that third and twenty five that they gave up,
and they gave up a penalty on that one too.
They had another field goal, they made the field goal
five yard illegal motion penalty, they moved back, and then
(27:22):
all of a sudden they missed the field goal. So
to me, it was just it was a game full
of bad breaks, bad mistakes. It's a better team. You're
getting the much better team in a bounce back spot
with a relatively low number.
Speaker 1 (27:35):
So I like that.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
By the way, teams who have been favorites at home
and lost and then our favorites the following week on
the road about sixty percent the past twenty years against
the spread. And by the way, Sean McVeigh short rest
fourteen and six against the spread ten and one in
his last eleven games with Matthew Stafford six and one
(28:00):
short rest, Like, I don't understand the move here. It
doesn't make any sense to me.
Speaker 1 (28:03):
So yeah, let's go with the Rams Kansas City plus
two and a half at Buffalo. I think Buffalo is
the most equipped they've ever been to beat Kansas City.
But now Coleman's not playing and Amari Cooper's banned up
and Kincaid might not play. You're not beating him at
half strength because they're going to put you an uncomfortable
third and longs and it's a and they're getting By
(28:26):
the way, they're getting Pachecko back, so that that can
be a difference maker for their run game, which has
been pretty pedestrian Kareem Hunt's not a bad receiver out
of the backfield, but he doesn't have any jet fuel anymore.
This feels like an obvious one chiefs plus the points,
even though it's not three sharper square.
Speaker 3 (28:43):
Yeah. So what's interesting about this is on Sunday night,
this line opened at chiefs plus one and it started
skyrocketing higher. And Sunday nights Monday mornings, that's when the
wise guys are betting. They're taking advantage of some early lines.
There are line moves in that first twenty four hour
window that's professional money. And this line moved from Kansas
(29:07):
City plus one, Kansas City plus one and a half,
Kansas City plus two, Kansas City plus two and a half,
and it made no sense. This is a little bit
like the Steelers, where you know what the precedent is.
You know, Mike Tomlin does this x percent amount of time.
That is what we call in the betting business a
(29:28):
plus EV plus expected value return on your investment. Right,
so you just bet it. Like he might not love it,
you might get burned on it four times out of ten,
but six times out of ten you're going to win.
The percentages. With Patrick Mahomes as an underdog or a
favorite of less than three are so much higher than
(29:49):
anything else you could possibly imagine. And sure, maybe he's
getting by with a little bit of voodoo this year.
Maybe he's been incredibly lucky. Maybe there are games they
show a loss to the forty nine, Maybe they should
have lost to the Broncos like there have been spots,
But look, twelve one and one against the spread? Is
Mahomes as an underdog? Okay? His only against the spread
(30:13):
loss was against the Bills two years ago two and
a half point underdogs They lost by four twenty five
and ten straight up twenty six, eight and one in
his career against the spread as a favorite of three
or fewer points or as an underdog, like I'm with you,
you just don't bet against Patrick Mahomes in this spot.
(30:35):
If people didn't learn their lesson in the Super Bowl
where he was a two and a half point underdog.
If Patrick Mahomes is close, ask yourself this, do you
want to be betting against him at the end of
the game. Are you going to feel comfortable with that? No,
nobody is. And to your point, Kean Coleman out, Amari
Cooper out, Kin Kaid if he does play is playing
(30:56):
with the cast. They're a little banged up on the
right side of their offensive, like there are reasons to
be afraid to bet on the bills beyond Patrick Mahomes.
So yes, this line has come down, by the way
to answer the original question. So it's starting to become
sharp to bet on the chiefs.
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really is all right, the final one of my picks.
So the Chargers are only minus one and a half
and I looked at that number and thought, why that's
(32:21):
a funky number. No, it's not the offense. I'm going
to take the Bengals plus the points here here's why.
So they played on Thursday. Now they get it. Not
only do they get extra rest, they don't play till Monday.
So it's a strange. It's really a lot of extra rest.
As I've told you, if you have a great quarterback
and an offensive coach, I think that time matters. The
(32:42):
Jets have an old quarterback and an interim coach. That
extra rest against Arizona didn't matter. But I think Zach
Taylor and Joe Burrow and they're already humming and the Chargers.
Everybody loves the Chargers. They don't have a ton of
downfield weapons. They have very few plus twenty yard plays.
So there's a way they have to play to win
(33:03):
long drives. Long drives are hard, penalties fumbles, It's hard
to create nine to ten and eleven play drives, Bengals
score quickly, they get freebies. I'm gonna take the points
to the Bengals the rest sharper square.
Speaker 3 (33:20):
Yeah, it's sharp this numbers move. It opened at two
and a half last Sunday to move down to about
got down to one actually, and then bounced up a
little bit with some Charger moony at one and a half.
But it's definitely the sharp side. I I I agree
with you, like you want to be on the Bengal
side here for the same reason you don't want to
(33:40):
bet against Patrick Mahomes. Do you want to be betting
against Joe Burrow, who lights out this year, who has
an underdog is second only to Patrick Mahomes, and how
well he performs amongst this current class of quarterbacks, you don't.
The reason why there would be any sentiment in favor
of the Chargers right now is because this has been
a very strange gambling year. You know, to look Macro here,
(34:05):
you as a businessman, as someone who has succeeded far
beyond just being a media personality. The past two weeks
has been earning season for public traded companies right that
includes sports betting operators, the two major sports betting operators
both had to reduce their revenue expectations for the year
because of what they have defined as customer friendly outcomes,
(34:28):
meaning there has been hundreds of millions of dollars in
reduce revenue because so many favorites are winning this year,
so many more than expected, right And what that means
is that teams like the Chargers have been over exceeding
the expectation as favorites because they do exactly what you
want them to do. They don't make high variant coaching
(34:52):
decisions because Harbaught is very consistent. You know what he's
going to do. They don't turn the ball over. They're
really disciplined, so they don't have this stupid penalties that
a lot of other teams have having, and those things
have been impacting the games in a much wider way
than they have in previous years. So that's why people
like the Chargers right now is the Chargers are making
(35:14):
people money. But the sharp side in this game are
the Bengals.
Speaker 1 (35:18):
Always a game I want you to pick for me.
I like Denver at home minus two and a half
against Atlanta. Kirk Cousins not one hundred percent Pennix could play,
and though he played it Indiana and Washington cold wet
weather areas, it's a tough opening assignment. Denver's getting a
tremendous pass rush. I do worry that out playing Kansas
City and losing the way they did is an emotional
(35:38):
gut punch for the Broncos. I do think there's something there.
But Bonnicks and this Denver team, they know they're not
a Hoist Trophy team, like they know they're going to
lose games like this. They have a rookie quarterback, a
thin roster, and I think there's value in playing close
and out playing the Super Bowl champs. I think they
actually come out of that game thinking shit, out played Mahomes.
(36:01):
I don't think this is a veteran team that really
SAgs and thinks. You know, Buffalo losing to the Chiefs
again the following week, you like you really have a
low energy locker room. I'm going to take Denver here.
Tell me why I'm right or wrong.
Speaker 3 (36:16):
Well, I actually cannot decide on this game. It's so
interesting you bring it up because early in the week
I loved Atlanta. Here I thought to myself, Atlanta really
shouldn't have lost that game and against New Orleans, and
you know, I love New Orleans. Last week I tried
to get you to come along with me on New Orleans.
You are not having it. You will not that game
(36:38):
you want, you don't want to watch. You totally get it,
respect the theory, but I felt like at the end
of the game, New Orleans scored three points in the
second half, the Falcons missed multiple field goals, including a
field goal that could have tied the game with six
minutes left. They had a very unlucky game. And now
you got Kirk Cousins, who just historically is great against
(37:01):
the spread, great straight up coming off a loss. I
really like the way the Falcons have been running the ball.
Bijon has been a different level of player than he
was in his rookie season. He's showing all the things
that everyone was excited about, receding out of the backfield,
his ability to run away from tacklers, the ability to
run people over. I then thought about, Okay, two and
(37:25):
a half feels high. You know, it feels like you're
overvaluing the Broncos and their ability to and what they
did against the Chiefs, And I like you, I felt
like the chief The Broncos will walk away that of
that game against the Chiefs and be like, we're emboldened.
I would not be crustified with them at all. I'd
be going into a thinking, Wow, we can hang like
(37:47):
we are a really good team. And you and I
have talked about this where Sean Payton has done with
bo Nix, talk about the opposite of Caleb Williams right
like he has basically thrown the book at him and
gotten him better and better and better every single week.
And that Falcons defense, they don't pressure anybody. Bo Nix
is going to look at this and be like, are
(38:08):
they even playing defense? Is anybody trying to come after me?
Because of the difference between how aggressive the Chiefs are.
So I'm having a hard time finding the winner in
this one. I don't I'm probably not going to bet it.
I don't have a strong opinion. The wise guys don't
really have a strong opinion on this either. They lean Denver.
But you're not seeing people running to the window saying
(38:29):
I got to get a ticket.
Speaker 1 (38:30):
On the Broncos. Finally, what's the game I should be
betting that I have overlooked?
Speaker 3 (38:38):
I mean, I can't believe I have to say it,
but hello Cleveland, Like, are you kidding me? We've got
the Browns off a bye with a healthier defense. You
look at their you look at their injury report, there's
nobody on it. So Kevin Stefanski builds a game plan
(39:01):
where he's basically just handing the ball to Nick Chubb
behind what if it had been healthy from the beginning
of the year, would have been a top five offensive line.
And you've got a top five defensive line going against
Derek Carr, who, when he's not pressured, as we saw
against the Falcons, can be a really good quarterback, and
(39:23):
when he is pressured basically becomes one of the most
losing quarterbacks in NFL history. So how am I not
vetting the Browns after the Saints basically just won their
Super Bowl? This was the game they had to win.
I will not bet on the Saints again this year.
That was a one time thing. Now I'll bet the Browns.
(39:45):
And by the way, the wise guys have been betting
the Browns. The line open to two and a half,
down to two one and a half one, now it's
a half. There are a lot of places where the
Browns it's going to flip and they're going to be favorite.
So if you want to get it, get it now.
Speaker 1 (39:59):
Cleveland minus one at New Orleans. How disgusting, So.
Speaker 3 (40:05):
Disgusting, not only that you are betting on Jamis in
his homecoming revenge game in New Orleans, the team that
ran him out of town after he got Jamal Williams
a touchdown last year, like he is going to. Kevin
Stefanski is going to have to do everything he can
(40:26):
possibly do to keep Jamis from making terrible, terrible throws
and putting him in bad positions, and then the fifteen
times that he asks him to throw in the game.
He's just got to cross his fingers and pray.
Speaker 1 (40:39):
Any feeling on the Seahawks getting six and a half
at San Francisco zero same, I get same.
Speaker 3 (40:48):
I can't get the Niners. You look at the box score.
They should have beaten the Buccaneers by nine hundred points.
Speaker 1 (40:57):
I believe me. It was my lock of that year
San France. Let us go.
Speaker 3 (41:00):
Yeah, it made no sense. And even like the Jake
Moody misses, if he had made one of those field goals,
the last field goal, they still win by six and
they cover the five and a half.
Speaker 1 (41:12):
So.
Speaker 3 (41:14):
It makes no sense to me their red zone struggles continue.
You got to wonder how much does Brandon I you
not being there really make a difference. Clearly it's something.
It's more than just Debo and any injuries or Christian
mccaffree and any injuries. I also wonder, Look Trent Williams,
who we love and is a dominant offensive lineman and
(41:35):
one of the best in the NFL. He missed all
a training camp and he's old, So you got to
ask yourself, all right, did that actually have more of
an impact? They aren't as dominant an offensive line. They
already weren't a great offensive line going into the season,
and what Kyle Shanahan's schemes usually masks that deficiency less
so this year. So I don't have an opinion on this. Meanwhile,
(41:58):
the Seahawks like they just waigh, they're leading tackler. I
think they're still trying to figure out who they are defensively.
So I'm going to pass on this game as always.
Chad Milman, Thanks man, good to see your brother.
Speaker 1 (42:15):
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Speaker 1 (01:19):
All right, Chad Milman is going to stop on By
in about ten minutes. That was a tough watch. Thursday
Night Football twenty six eighteen. Philadelphia played like crap in
the first half and came back to win. Let's be
honest behind Saquon Barkley this. You know, Philadelphia is such
a talented team, but I think what tonight honestly look
(01:41):
like You're getting into week ten, week eleven, it's a
short week. Philadelphia looked tired. Philadelphia look beat up. They
look tired. You know, division rivalry games are usually pretty physical.
I think it's disturbing how Philadelphia, much better roster than Washington,
couldn't get anything going in the first half. You know,
(02:03):
it wasn't until the last final drives when you know
they kind of cut loose. It's just you have to
be a better football team than that. Eagles are six
and zero when Saquon Barkley rushes for one hundred plus yards,
so he's completely changed the offense Jalen Hurts, and there
were times tonight in the first half when Jalen Hurts
missed AJ Brown badly. I'm like a twelve fifteen yard out,
(02:27):
and you know, he's just the savior of the offense.
I find it remarkable. You know, nobody in the NFL
loves the trade to their rivals. It's sort of a
no no, you know, to me, as long as you're
not trading like your best player. It is unbelievable. The
New York Giants allowed and it was the most predictable
thing in the world. Saquon Barkley, their best player by
(02:47):
a lot, to go to the Philadelphia Eagles. Jesus. I mean,
that's just not good GMing. And I don't know if
the Giants are going to clean house. But that's the
kind of thing that gets you fired. And Barkley's a
remarkable player, you know. You know, it's really cracks me up.
The media overreacts to everything, and a lot of it
is the media is much younger than it used to be.
(03:09):
Is that the media, you know, companies now don't have
the money, especially traditional media. You know, they're going to
get young and cheap in the media. So a lot
of times the media is thirty one years old, twenty
eight years old. Their reaction to stuff is like it's
never happened before. But that's their life. You know, I've
been doing this so long now, and I'm believing that's
(03:32):
not a humble brag, you know, it's it's sometimes I
look at the media and I think, guys, this is
it's everything cyclical. I mean virtually politics is cyclical. Everything
is cyclical. Tech, the industry is not very old, but
it feels cyclical. You get ups and downs. Everybody overreacts
to everything. And earlier this year, you know, or was
(03:56):
it last year the off season, there was this big
complaint that running backs are not getting paid, and it's like,
take a deep breath. Safeties have never been paid. You
tight ends have always been underpaid. Interior offensive linemen don't
get paid unless you're the la rams. They pay theirs.
Running Backs are always going to be valuable because a
(04:17):
running back is essential for a young quarterback. For instance,
all quarterbacks are better. I mean, Jalen Hurts is not
a kid anymore, but all quarterbacks are better the good
running back. Well, quarterbacks the most essential piece in the league. Secondly,
running backs, whether gets harsh, whether it gets colder, it
(04:39):
gets windier. November December, January, running games become more essential.
Not to mention, you know, our running back is such
a great piece, not just not just to set the
tempo of a team, but when you lead, and good
teams lead, and so a lot of times are running
back eats up the clock. So good teams are always
(05:02):
going to want a good running back. I mean, Philadelphia
is a good team. Excellent running back Isaah pa Checo
when he comes back, will be so valuable to the
Kansas City Chiefs. James Cook for the Buffalo Bills has
changed everything. Dereck Henry for the Ravens. I mean, look
at Cincinnati, one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
Let Joe Mixon go. Bengals would die for a twelve
play drive nine runs with Joe Mixon to keep their
(05:25):
awful defense off the field. The Detroit Lions have two
excellent running backs. So this idea that running backs were
going to you know, disappear into the ether. The reports
I said this on FS one I set up multiple
times take a deep breath. There was always going to
be a market for Austin Eckler. You know, Washington's like, hey,
(05:45):
we need you. You don't have to get thirty carries,
but we need you. So there's excellent young running backs
in the league. And Saquon Barkley is so valuable. This
is a team that's good. They often play with the league,
and he was like a closer tonight. He was just
so dependable late in the football game. I will say,
if these are two of the best teams in the NFC,
(06:07):
then the AFC is still superior to the NFC. But
I also think Jalen Hurts allows Saquon Barkley, excuse me,
allows Jalen Hurts to throw less in a six game
winning streak. He's only had two turnovers. So Jalen Hurts
can throw twenty two times. He didn't have to throw
thirty four times. So it frustrates me sometimes. And I
(06:31):
see this in the political media. You know, to the
Trump election. It's listen, the election was decided by a
million six votes or something like that in the country
of three hundred and fifty million people. And you can
see from the appointees, you know, Trump Trump is almost
going to be a polarizing personality and a polarizing president.
You know, he'll create great passion from the blue team.
(06:53):
You go to the midterm elections, the Senate, the House,
things change. It's just, you know, nothing, nothing lasts forever.
So running backs are very, very valuable. I also think,
you know, it's like in the NBA. Remember it was
the small ball league and everybody got small, and then
here comes Jokis and here comes Giannis, and you know,
(07:14):
the Boston Celtics are like, let's get a big, let's
get Poor Zingis. And now you know, with the emergence
of some of these young stars like a Wemby, you
just have to have size. You're just in the NBA,
you're just not gonna win a championship. I mean, the
Julius Randalls Sea, We'll take Karl Anthony Towns. We need
more size if we want to match up with Jiannis,
(07:34):
Embiid and Poor Zingis in the East. I mean, it's
amazing how many true big men. Anthony Davis is the
best player in the Lakers, Jannis on Milwaukee, Jokic, Wemby,
There's all sorts of good players. Check Holmgren such a
good player for Okay, so he's not as good as SGA,
but a great player. So I mean one team Minnesota,
(07:55):
I mean it has been kind of reboot as a
franchise before Karl Anthony town got traded because they went
and got Rudy Gobert and Karl Anthony Towns. They went
and got two centers. Everything, everything over time either re emerges, emerges, regresses.
To the mean, take a deep breath, It's all going
to be okay, you know. I also think what's happening
(08:18):
last weekend was a great weekend for underdogs. And I
thought tonight when Washington I couldn't you couldn't figure the
first half out. I mean you look at the stats.
Washington never had the football. They had the football eleven
minutes and they led, and it was one of these
football games You're like, what's happening here? Philadelphia so much better, Jacksonville,
Minnesota last weekend? Minnesota was so much better San Francisco
(08:40):
and Tampa last week and go to the box score
in that game. So what you're finding is a lot
of these superior football teams. They're injured, they're beat up,
they're playing some backups, they're tired. You know, a lot
of the better football teams in the NFL, they have
older players, players just out of their prime. Week ten,
week eleven, week twelve. Listen. I like Jayden Daniels, and
(09:04):
let's talk about this, but he's hit a bit of
a rookie wall. And last year C. J. Stroud had
a three game stretch and we all like him where
he completed fifty seven percent of his throws. So Jaden
Daniels comes in, has a little Lamar Jackson field. Nobody
has any film, nobody has in the NFL film. I mean,
you're just kind of okay. You go back and look
at the LSU film. I mean, you don't you don't
(09:24):
know really what you get. And then Cliff Kingsbury with
Jayden Daniels brand new. So you get four five weeks
and you're like, oh, then you know, then they lose
to a Baltimore and I played Pittsburgh a couple of
weeks ago and they lose to a Pittsburgh. And now
they lose to a Philadelphia. So some teams Washington I
had as a wildcard team coming into the season. Some
teams it takes a while to figure them out. And
(09:47):
I think more than any team in the NFL. That's Washington.
They come in with a fastball, nobody's seen it. Kingsbury's
got a new offense and a new quarterback, and everybody's
kind of just you just you need more film, and
then all of a sudden you kind of figure out
what they are, what they're not. You see their offensive line,
you know, into the season. Going into the season, we
all said about the Commanders. Don't know if I like
(10:08):
the offensive line. You know, they kind of fool people early,
some smoking mirrors. I mean, they're just picking up seven
yards a chunk, but they can't sustain it because they
really don't have good enough. You know. I like their
running backs, but I mean Terry McLaurin in the first
half didn't even see a target, you know. So people
take Terry McLaurin out, and it's a pretty weak wide
receiving crew and it's a pretty average offensive line. And
(10:30):
now everybody's got all the tape, and so I think
he's going to be I think I think Jayden Daniels
has been a home run or you know, Rookie of
the Year all that stuff. But this is the reality.
C J. Stroud, you know, hit a wall and had
some games where you know, the game speeds up. The
other thing is what happens is like a young quarterback
(10:53):
maybe has a favorite receiver, you know, maybe relies you know,
more on a running back, and then people start getting
dinged up in week nine and ten and eleven, and
now you know Jaden Daniels doesn't have all the components
he needs, and so you know, then Cliff Kingsbury has
certain things He's not gonna run, certain plays, certain sets,
(11:16):
so you know on insert day, you know, and this
is a short week anyway, you know, you're just you're
limited on what you have. And I think that's what
you're seeing. I think you're seeing a young quarterback and
it just steps. Everything for these young quarterbacks is steps.
You No, Bowe Nicks started slowly, but he has an
offensive head coach and one of the great ones in
(11:36):
Sean Payton. He keeps getting better and better. Whereas the
element of surprise, what the heck is Jaden Daniels and
you're guessing and he's so electric and so athletic. He
was just he was picking up yards with his feet.
Nothing quite like him. Looks a little like Lamar in
the NFC and now we're seeing people have a track.
(11:58):
Doesn't mean it's like a little bit like Lamar Jackson.
I mean Lamar's first full year starting MVP, but he
would have trouble in some division games as teams in
his division like Pittsburgh or Cincinnati had seen Lamar Jackson
multiple times. Remember Lamar's first year. He comes in late
week eleven, he beats the Chargers, and he has to
face him again in the playoffs and he loses the Chargers.
(12:19):
I remember talking to Tom Telesco, the GM of the
Chargers at the time, and he said, you know you
first time you face him, Yeah, I mean you just don't.
Because you can watch all the film you want, you
have no idea how fast he is, how twitchy he is,
how quick he sees and thinks and reacts. And then
the second time you face him, Okay, we're going to
take away this, that's his fastball. We're taking away that
(12:42):
force him to go to his second and his third receiver.
And then you he's still tough to beat. But you
can ask Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson has struggled in his career.
I don't think he's had a great record with against
the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Tomlin. They always have a good defense.
They see him multiple times a year, they know all
the tricks, and so I think Jayden Daniels will be
(13:02):
a very effective quarterback for teams that don't face him
a lot. But for a Philadelphia that's well run, good
pieces that sees him twice a year, you know he
may have through the years, he may have trouble with
the Eagles, but still love him. It's a pretty good
quarterback class. A few years ago we had the class
with Jalen Hurts and Tua and Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert.
(13:22):
This quarterback class, JJ McCarthy looked really really good in
the preseason. Preseason, but he looked really good. And Bo
Nicks looks good, and Jayden Daniels looks good. And I
do believe Kayleb Williams will eventually get it right or
closer to what he's going to be. He had a
good three game stretcher earlier this season. Kayleb Williams was
seventy four percent completion percentage three games. But again, now
(13:45):
people are getting taped. Now they see what Caleb can't do.
Then all of a sudden you have a wide receiver
that stinged up, just steps, just a process. Jaden's going
to be great. I thought Philadelphia and I they just
looked they were a little tired, little beat up, but
they came back to be the inferior roster twenty six
to eighteen. Nick Ceriani, I still cannot get over. I
(14:10):
don't believe they've scored on the opening drive this year.
Offensive coach Sakwon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Davonte Smith,
good old line. That's just odd to me. Just Philadelphia
is such a unique franchise. And maybe I'm loopy because
this game put me to sleep, but they're the only
(14:30):
franchise that makes constant coaching changes. You're never quite in
love with the coach. And yet I think it's a
top five organization in the NFL. Everybody else, like Kansas
City feels so stable, Baltimore feels so stable, Philadelphia is
a little rocky and turbulent. I mean, how many coordinators
(14:51):
have they had. I mean they're on their third offensive
coordinator in three years. They're constantly rotating through coordinators, coaches,
a few years back, quarterbacks. But yet I don't see
them like the New York Jets the New York Giants.
As a reactionary, I tend to think they're proactive, smart owner,
smart GM. I didn't love them firing Chip Kelly, but
(15:14):
at the time I felt like Chip Kelly's got a
winning record. But you know what we found out in
San Francisco. Chip's more of a college guy than a
pro guy. So they knew something in the building that
we didn't. Even though they went ten and six ten
and six first two years with pretty average quarterback play,
they knew something. They saw something Carson Wentz. They signed
him to a big deal, and then they know they
kind of moved off him, and you're thinking, what are
(15:35):
you doing here? You just sign them to do a
big deal. They kind of knew something. You know, they
know things in the building. They keep it to themselves,
and they react proactively, very strongly. And so Philadelphia once again,
I mean, this offense with Jalen Hurts has been one
of two things, turnover prone and awful, or when Nick
(15:56):
Sirianni moves back and lets his oc run things excellent.
There's nothing in between. It's either been you know, like
right now, it's powerful. It's a powerful offense with a
great old line at Saquon Barkley six and zero are
the Eagles when Saquon rushes for one hundred or more
completely change the offense of Philadelphia. Okay, this weekend, there's
(16:16):
some interesting things tonight Jake Paul, Mike Tyson. Saturday, John
Jones UFC fight. Good weekend. Good. Anytime you can get
a fight on a Friday and a Saturday into a
big football weekend excellent. Chad Melman's next All right, there's
(16:37):
never been a night quite like this. On Friday, November fifteenth,
Netflix and Most Valuable Promotions bring you the highly anticipated
boxing mega event of the year. Jake el Gaio Paul
will go toe to toe in the ring against Iron
Mike Tyson, for a long time, the baddest man on
the planet. When a disruptor challenges a legend, anything can happen.
Also that night, historic rematch between the Brave Bomb Katie
(17:01):
Taylor and Amanda The Real Deal Toronto. The last time
they met in the ring, history was made. Women's boxing
was catapulted in new hypes.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
Though.
Speaker 1 (17:08):
These are the fights the world's been waiting for. Don't
miss these epic showdowns. It is live from at and
T Stadium, in Arlington, Texas. Watch Paul Versus Tyson Friday
November fifteenth, eight pm Eastern, five BM Pacific live on Netflix.
You can also follow the road to the Fight by
watching Countdown Paul Versus Tyson, a three part documentary series
(17:29):
beginning November twelfth, only on Netflix. Time for another edition
of Sharp or Square. He's a host at the Action Network.
All of our odds are always provided by Draftings Sportsbook.
All right, Chad Melman, there are certain games I just
(17:50):
want to watch and not bet. But I would take
the Steelers plus points hosting the Ravens. The number is
three and a half. It's one of the bets of
the weekend. At three, I still think I take it.
I think George Pickens and Mike Williams attack the Ravens weakness.
Baltimore is one of those teams and this is rare.
With a great team, they can outplay you and then
(18:13):
get beat by The Raiders, can get beat by inferior teams.
They're so bad on the back end. And I think
Pittsburgh's a real story here. I think it's the Seahawks.
Light Russell's not what's what he was was, But in
this rivalry even a field goal. I'm taking the point
Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (18:32):
Well, it's totally sharp, and you've nailed it from a
couple of different directions. Won the matchup the wise guy
seed exactly the way you do. We've been watching it
all year with the Ravens where they're letting teams in
the back door, right. We saw it with the Commanders,
they were down a significant amount, they came back, they
came back and they were able to cover that game.
(18:53):
We saw it with the Bengals who were up so
much because they were able to attack the back end
of the Ravens defense. And don't forget, no Kyle Humphrey
in this game. Kyle Humphrey is one of their, if
not their best defender, and now that secondary is going
to be even worse. The overarching theme here and this
is the reason why professionals are on it. Don't forget
(19:15):
this game opened at three and a half, it is
settled at three. The wise guys are still on it.
But look in the regular season, in this game, in
this matchup the past twenty years, when the line is
three or more, the underdog twenty two four and three,
underdog fifteen to two and one. Since two thousand and
(19:35):
fifteen in the regular season, when Mike Tomlin fases John Harbaugh,
the underdog in this matchup twenty three, six and three,
and then you go into Mike Tomlin, the most profitable
coach as an underdog in the past twenty years in
the NFL. And by the way, John Harbaugh when he's
a favorite is not nearly as good as when he's
(19:57):
a dog in this matchup. So there is a reason,
and there is also historical reasons to consider the Steelers
at plus three. You're sure.
Speaker 1 (20:08):
You know I like the number four and five. So
Greg Cosell said something on my show today that had
influence over me. This was going to be a stay
away game. But the Packers offensive coach off of by
at Chicago and what Greg Cosell said, it's not a
Shane Waldron issue. Much like Justin Fields or Zach Wilson,
Caleb Williams is not seeing coverage. He's not seeing it.
(20:30):
He is not able to see something, spot it, get
the ball out quickly. Green Bay I think has its
most aggressive defense in years. I love the Boston College coach.
I think he's been a really nice fit for them.
Under the radar, low Key really knows his side of
the ball. It's five. I would take Green Bay. I
(20:50):
know it's a division rivalry game, but good organization coach
Jordan loves healthier sharper square.
Speaker 3 (20:58):
So the wise guys have been on the Bears in
this game. It's moved from six to five and a
half to now five in some places. I agree with
you for what it's worth for me, this is a
pass or it's the Packers. I think there's so much
dysfunction with the Bears, and the reason why the wise
guys are taking them right now is because they believe
(21:20):
this is bottomed down right. It's gotten as bad as
it can get. In the locker room, it can't get
any worse. Whether you believe the players were responsible for
getting Shane Waldron fired, DJ Moore said that didn't happen,
Whether you believe that the system can now get a
little bit less complex and easier for Kayleb Williams, whether
you believe that they're getting two offensive linemen back, which
(21:42):
they are and will make him feel more comfortable in
the pocket. This team has been full of chaos, and
so the wise guys are betting, literally that it cannot
get any worse. In a division game against their rival
at home. The flip side is entirely about what the
Packers can do. They have been very opportunistic as a
(22:05):
defense this year, a lot of interceptions. They cannot rush
the passer, but what they can do offensively, and this
is where Matt laflor has been a genius figure out
how to best take advantage of what the Bears are
bad at on defense. The Bears are not a very
good rushing defense. We've seen what Matt Lafleor does with
someone like Josh Jacobs when he knows he doesn't have
Jordan Love, he just figures out creative ways to get
(22:27):
the running game in motion. He will likely do that
against the Bears. Also, Matt lafleur seven and three when
favored by four points or more. Over the past two decades,
road favorites off of a buy covered a sixty percent clip.
Road favorites of five and a half or more cover
it a seventy percent clip. So there's lots of reasons to
(22:48):
like the Packers here. The wise guys, I think the
right side is the Bears.
Speaker 1 (22:53):
So Journey had a song years ago and one of
the lyrics is I can't stop loving you, and I
feel that's odds makers on the Jets. This is a
bad test. How in God's name were they they favored
at Arizona? It was never competitive, Colts getting over a
field goal. So Anthony Richardson, I'm tired. I'm going to
(23:13):
go to the sidelines. Not a smart move. It's not
punishable by a month on the bench. He learned his
lesson when he's healthy. He's kind of a fascinating player
that's hard to defend because you have nobody in practice
that can duplicate. He's a defensive end that plays quarterback.
He's a huge, tackle breaking tornado of activity. That's not
(23:34):
a great quarterback. But I'm taking the points here all day.
Sharper Square.
Speaker 3 (23:41):
It's a fifty to fifty game right now. And I
agree with you. You think about Journey, I think that
same way when I think about offensive lines who are really,
really physical, and the Colts offensive line when it comes
to run blocking is super physical in the NFL, and
we saw this last week. I loved the Colts last
(24:03):
week against the Bills at home, and if not from
Joe Flacco and three turnovers and if not for getting
sacked when it's fourth and inches. I know, if not for,
if not for, if not for, then all of a sudden,
I'm playing in the NFL. But the point is they
ran the ball on the Bills. They had more than
one hundred and twenty yards rushing and Jonathan Taylor went
(24:23):
for more than one hundred and average five and a
half yards per carry, so they were able to do
exactly what they wanted to do against the Bills. The
Jets defense from a rushing perspective is worse than the
Bills rush defense, and the team overall is much worse
than the Bills are. And now you're getting Anthony Richardson.
Back to your point, this is a better opportunity for
(24:45):
Shane Steichen to let everybody run with the ball and
dominate the Jets, who if you watched last week against
the Cardinals, they were afraid to tackle anybody. This is
not a physical defense, and they have gotten so much
worse since Robert Silo was fired. So the line moved
down from four to three and a half, from actually
from four and a half to four to three and
(25:06):
a half, indicating that the wise guys were on the Colts.
It's come back a little bit on the on the Jets,
and so now it's settled at for the majority of
wise guys are with you and they will be in
the Colts.
Speaker 1 (25:19):
Well. A Rams minus four and a half that key
number of game at New England, so very rarely is
have I ever seen a Sean McVay team out coached.
It felt like they were out schemed early. It was
like an I thought it was an embarrassing game for
Sean McVay and it was hard to digest because the Dolphins,
a poor pass rushing team without blitzing, just rushing four
(25:42):
were getting relentless pressure. And my take is good coaches
and good quarterbacks have stinkers. The Rams are getting healthy.
That was not the Rams. They were playing very good.
It's a short week. I think New England now are
all buying to Drake May. This Rams defense is really good. Now.
Drake May is not Tua. He's not They don't have
(26:03):
those weapons. They're not going to listen to. Rams brought
some people and they got burned on third down because
Tua is a really good NFL quarterback. I'd swallowed the
four and a half here take the Ram sharper square.
Speaker 3 (26:15):
So it's been square, and I got to tell you.
We've talked about executive decisions before. I don't know why
the wise guys are on the Patriots here. It doesn't
make any sense to me at all. This is a
bilo on the better team, sell high on the worst
team situation. Why would you be betting the Patriots who
(26:37):
are so high on life after beating up on the
Bears on the road a franchise tying record nine sacks
against Caleb Williams. And look, I watched that game obviously,
the Rams and the Dolphins too. I looked at it
a little differently. The Rams have five field goals. The
Rams red zone this season has been atrocious, and to me,
(26:59):
that was sort of the bottoming out right. Every time
they got close, it was a sack, it was a
botch snap, it was a fumble, it was a mistake.
And then there were a couple times defensively, you know,
they had that third and twenty five that they gave up,
and they gave up a penalty on that one too.
They had another field goal, they made the field goal
five yard illegal motion penalty, they moved back, and then
(27:22):
all of a sudden they missed the field goal. So
to me, it was just it was a game full
of bad breaks, bad mistakes. It's a better team. You're
getting the much better team in a bounce back spot
with a relatively low number.
Speaker 1 (27:35):
So I like that.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
By the way, teams who have been favorites at home
and lost and then our favorites the following week on
the road about sixty percent the past twenty years against
the spread. And by the way, Sean McVeigh short rest
fourteen and six against the spread ten and one in
his last eleven games with Matthew Stafford six and one
(28:00):
short rest, Like, I don't understand the move here. It
doesn't make any sense to me.
Speaker 1 (28:03):
So yeah, let's go with the Rams Kansas City plus
two and a half at Buffalo. I think Buffalo is
the most equipped they've ever been to beat Kansas City.
But now Coleman's not playing and Amari Cooper's banned up
and Kincaid might not play. You're not beating him at
half strength because they're going to put you an uncomfortable
third and longs and it's a and they're getting By
(28:26):
the way, they're getting Pachecko back, so that that can
be a difference maker for their run game, which has
been pretty pedestrian Kareem Hunt's not a bad receiver out
of the backfield, but he doesn't have any jet fuel anymore.
This feels like an obvious one chiefs plus the points,
even though it's not three sharper square.
Speaker 3 (28:43):
Yeah. So what's interesting about this is on Sunday night,
this line opened at chiefs plus one and it started
skyrocketing higher. And Sunday nights Monday mornings, that's when the
wise guys are betting. They're taking advantage of some early lines.
There are line moves in that first twenty four hour
window that's professional money. And this line moved from Kansas
(29:07):
City plus one, Kansas City plus one and a half,
Kansas City plus two, Kansas City plus two and a half,
and it made no sense. This is a little bit
like the Steelers, where you know what the precedent is.
You know, Mike Tomlin does this x percent amount of time.
That is what we call in the betting business a
(29:28):
plus EV plus expected value return on your investment. Right,
so you just bet it. Like he might not love it,
you might get burned on it four times out of ten,
but six times out of ten you're going to win.
The percentages. With Patrick Mahomes as an underdog or a
favorite of less than three are so much higher than
(29:49):
anything else you could possibly imagine. And sure, maybe he's
getting by with a little bit of voodoo this year.
Maybe he's been incredibly lucky. Maybe there are games they
show a loss to the forty nine, Maybe they should
have lost to the Broncos like there have been spots,
But look, twelve one and one against the spread? Is
Mahomes as an underdog? Okay? His only against the spread
(30:13):
loss was against the Bills two years ago two and
a half point underdogs They lost by four twenty five
and ten straight up twenty six, eight and one in
his career against the spread as a favorite of three
or fewer points or as an underdog, like I'm with you,
you just don't bet against Patrick Mahomes in this spot.
(30:35):
If people didn't learn their lesson in the Super Bowl
where he was a two and a half point underdog.
If Patrick Mahomes is close, ask yourself this, do you
want to be betting against him at the end of
the game. Are you going to feel comfortable with that? No,
nobody is. And to your point, Kean Coleman out, Amari
Cooper out, Kin Kaid if he does play is playing
(30:56):
with the cast. They're a little banged up on the
right side of their offensive, like there are reasons to
be afraid to bet on the bills beyond Patrick Mahomes.
So yes, this line has come down, by the way
to answer the original question. So it's starting to become
sharp to bet on the chiefs.
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really is all right, the final one of my picks.
So the Chargers are only minus one and a half
and I looked at that number and thought, why that's
(32:21):
a funky number. No, it's not the offense. I'm going
to take the Bengals plus the points here here's why.
So they played on Thursday. Now they get it. Not
only do they get extra rest, they don't play till Monday.
So it's a strange. It's really a lot of extra rest.
As I've told you, if you have a great quarterback
and an offensive coach, I think that time matters. The
(32:42):
Jets have an old quarterback and an interim coach. That
extra rest against Arizona didn't matter. But I think Zach
Taylor and Joe Burrow and they're already humming and the Chargers.
Everybody loves the Chargers. They don't have a ton of
downfield weapons. They have very few plus twenty yard plays.
So there's a way they have to play to win
(33:03):
long drives. Long drives are hard, penalties fumbles, It's hard
to create nine to ten and eleven play drives, Bengals
score quickly, they get freebies. I'm gonna take the points
to the Bengals the rest sharper square.
Speaker 3 (33:20):
Yeah, it's sharp this numbers move. It opened at two
and a half last Sunday to move down to about
got down to one actually, and then bounced up a
little bit with some Charger moony at one and a half.
But it's definitely the sharp side. I I I agree
with you, like you want to be on the Bengal
side here for the same reason you don't want to
(33:40):
bet against Patrick Mahomes. Do you want to be betting
against Joe Burrow, who lights out this year, who has
an underdog is second only to Patrick Mahomes, and how
well he performs amongst this current class of quarterbacks, you don't.
The reason why there would be any sentiment in favor
of the Chargers right now is because this has been
a very strange gambling year. You know, to look Macro here,
(34:05):
you as a businessman, as someone who has succeeded far
beyond just being a media personality. The past two weeks
has been earning season for public traded companies right that
includes sports betting operators, the two major sports betting operators
both had to reduce their revenue expectations for the year
because of what they have defined as customer friendly outcomes,
(34:28):
meaning there has been hundreds of millions of dollars in
reduce revenue because so many favorites are winning this year,
so many more than expected, right And what that means
is that teams like the Chargers have been over exceeding
the expectation as favorites because they do exactly what you
want them to do. They don't make high variant coaching
(34:52):
decisions because Harbaught is very consistent. You know what he's
going to do. They don't turn the ball over. They're
really disciplined, so they don't have this stupid penalties that
a lot of other teams have having, and those things
have been impacting the games in a much wider way
than they have in previous years. So that's why people
like the Chargers right now is the Chargers are making
(35:14):
people money. But the sharp side in this game are
the Bengals.
Speaker 1 (35:18):
Always a game I want you to pick for me.
I like Denver at home minus two and a half
against Atlanta. Kirk Cousins not one hundred percent Pennix could play,
and though he played it Indiana and Washington cold wet
weather areas, it's a tough opening assignment. Denver's getting a
tremendous pass rush. I do worry that out playing Kansas
City and losing the way they did is an emotional
(35:38):
gut punch for the Broncos. I do think there's something there.
But Bonnicks and this Denver team, they know they're not
a Hoist Trophy team, like they know they're going to
lose games like this. They have a rookie quarterback, a
thin roster, and I think there's value in playing close
and out playing the Super Bowl champs. I think they
actually come out of that game thinking shit, out played Mahomes.
(36:01):
I don't think this is a veteran team that really
SAgs and thinks. You know, Buffalo losing to the Chiefs
again the following week, you like you really have a
low energy locker room. I'm going to take Denver here.
Tell me why I'm right or wrong.
Speaker 3 (36:16):
Well, I actually cannot decide on this game. It's so
interesting you bring it up because early in the week
I loved Atlanta. Here I thought to myself, Atlanta really
shouldn't have lost that game and against New Orleans, and
you know, I love New Orleans. Last week I tried
to get you to come along with me on New Orleans.
You are not having it. You will not that game
(36:38):
you want, you don't want to watch. You totally get it,
respect the theory, but I felt like at the end
of the game, New Orleans scored three points in the
second half, the Falcons missed multiple field goals, including a
field goal that could have tied the game with six
minutes left. They had a very unlucky game. And now
you got Kirk Cousins, who just historically is great against
(37:01):
the spread, great straight up coming off a loss. I
really like the way the Falcons have been running the ball.
Bijon has been a different level of player than he
was in his rookie season. He's showing all the things
that everyone was excited about, receding out of the backfield,
his ability to run away from tacklers, the ability to
run people over. I then thought about, Okay, two and
(37:25):
a half feels high. You know, it feels like you're
overvaluing the Broncos and their ability to and what they
did against the Chiefs, And I like you, I felt
like the chief The Broncos will walk away that of
that game against the Chiefs and be like, we're emboldened.
I would not be crustified with them at all. I'd
be going into a thinking, Wow, we can hang like
(37:47):
we are a really good team. And you and I
have talked about this where Sean Payton has done with
bo Nix, talk about the opposite of Caleb Williams right
like he has basically thrown the book at him and
gotten him better and better and better every single week.
And that Falcons defense, they don't pressure anybody. Bo Nix
is going to look at this and be like, are
(38:08):
they even playing defense? Is anybody trying to come after me?
Because of the difference between how aggressive the Chiefs are.
So I'm having a hard time finding the winner in
this one. I don't I'm probably not going to bet it.
I don't have a strong opinion. The wise guys don't
really have a strong opinion on this either. They lean Denver.
But you're not seeing people running to the window saying
(38:29):
I got to get a ticket.
Speaker 1 (38:30):
On the Broncos. Finally, what's the game I should be
betting that I have overlooked?
Speaker 3 (38:38):
I mean, I can't believe I have to say it,
but hello Cleveland, Like, are you kidding me? We've got
the Browns off a bye with a healthier defense. You
look at their you look at their injury report, there's
nobody on it. So Kevin Stefanski builds a game plan
(39:01):
where he's basically just handing the ball to Nick Chubb
behind what if it had been healthy from the beginning
of the year, would have been a top five offensive line.
And you've got a top five defensive line going against
Derek Carr, who, when he's not pressured, as we saw
against the Falcons, can be a really good quarterback, and
(39:23):
when he is pressured basically becomes one of the most
losing quarterbacks in NFL history. So how am I not
vetting the Browns after the Saints basically just won their
Super Bowl? This was the game they had to win.
I will not bet on the Saints again this year.
That was a one time thing. Now I'll bet the Browns.
(39:45):
And by the way, the wise guys have been betting
the Browns. The line open to two and a half,
down to two one and a half one, now it's
a half. There are a lot of places where the
Browns it's going to flip and they're going to be favorite.
So if you want to get it, get it now.
Speaker 1 (39:59):
Cleveland minus one at New Orleans. How disgusting, So.
Speaker 3 (40:05):
Disgusting, not only that you are betting on Jamis in
his homecoming revenge game in New Orleans, the team that
ran him out of town after he got Jamal Williams
a touchdown last year, like he is going to. Kevin
Stefanski is going to have to do everything he can
(40:26):
possibly do to keep Jamis from making terrible, terrible throws
and putting him in bad positions, and then the fifteen
times that he asks him to throw in the game.
He's just got to cross his fingers and pray.
Speaker 1 (40:39):
Any feeling on the Seahawks getting six and a half
at San Francisco zero same, I get same.
Speaker 3 (40:48):
I can't get the Niners. You look at the box score.
They should have beaten the Buccaneers by nine hundred points.
Speaker 1 (40:57):
I believe me. It was my lock of that year
San France. Let us go.
Speaker 3 (41:00):
Yeah, it made no sense. And even like the Jake
Moody misses, if he had made one of those field goals,
the last field goal, they still win by six and
they cover the five and a half.
Speaker 1 (41:12):
So.
Speaker 3 (41:14):
It makes no sense to me their red zone struggles continue.
You got to wonder how much does Brandon I you
not being there really make a difference. Clearly it's something.
It's more than just Debo and any injuries or Christian
mccaffree and any injuries. I also wonder, Look Trent Williams,
who we love and is a dominant offensive lineman and
(41:35):
one of the best in the NFL. He missed all
a training camp and he's old, So you got to
ask yourself, all right, did that actually have more of
an impact? They aren't as dominant an offensive line. They
already weren't a great offensive line going into the season,
and what Kyle Shanahan's schemes usually masks that deficiency less
so this year. So I don't have an opinion on this. Meanwhile,
(41:58):
the Seahawks like they just waigh, they're leading tackler. I
think they're still trying to figure out who they are defensively.
So I'm going to pass on this game as always.
Chad Milman, Thanks man, good to see your brother.
Speaker 1 (42:15):
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