Colin Cowherd’s Fantasy Football Over/Under Picks + The 10 Biggest Questions for Week 11 (Ep. 1448)

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ran Warmley, joining this Friday morning by Derek Brown and
Pat fitz Morris Fellas we are talking week elevin, he questions,
I do have to reveal it everybody we were just
talking about before the show started recording. Uh, Derek Brown,
Deebro does not think more than a Feeling is Boston's

(00:22):
best song.

Speaker 2 (00:23):
No, it's definitely not Four Play Long Time Baby, what
I won instrumentals are ridiculous and we didn't know also
that Fitzi's apparently got, you know, celebrity ties to all
these different places and people.

Speaker 1 (00:37):
Fits as celebrities to everyone.

Speaker 3 (00:38):
I just used to work with someone related to one
of the Boston I did long ago.

Speaker 1 (00:45):
I was on drumline in high school and senior year.
We did kind of like a rock band themed show
for our our kind of marching performance that year, and
we started off with four Play from Boston, and it was, uh,
we did that. We did Black Magic Woman, we did
round About, we did one other side. It's been a

(01:07):
while obviously, so I can't remember.

Speaker 2 (01:08):
Dude, rock band takes. Yeah, we did play that makes favorite.
Oh my god, man, like I remember so many different
nights and so many different beverages in and playing drums
and being like, oh yeah, I could do this on stage.

Speaker 1 (01:20):
We've talked before like I'm not good at like i
don't know music trivia very well, and I'm not the
type of person and be like, oh, that person's saying
that person and these are the names of the members
in those bands. But I do really enjoy older music,
like I really like my mom got me really into
Fleetwood Mac growing up, Like Jim Croche is one of
my favorite artists. I love like Boston and kind of
some of those older school you know, the types of

(01:43):
the bands that you would see on a game, like
rock band, which was great.

Speaker 2 (01:46):
Your closet, geriatric, It's okay.

Speaker 3 (01:49):
This is a this is a great classic rock podcast.
We should occasionally talk about football, just for a change.

Speaker 1 (01:55):
Actually, we're like a minute into the show. It's not
going to spend ten minutes on that, but we will
dive into some football here. This is our Friday show.
All of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be
found at fantasypros dot com slash rankings. If you're juggling
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(02:17):
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Dive in and let us help you dominate all your
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slash my Playbook or on the Fantasy Football My Playbook app.
Before we jump into this week's questions, let's check in
with Colin Coward and his over under picks for the

(02:38):
Fantasy Over Under Challenge. Time now for the Week eleven
Over Under Challenge. As always, this segment is presented by DraftKings,
and as always, I am joined by Colin Coward to
talk through some of our favorite player picks for this
week's slate. We will jump right in, but first I
want to remind everyone listening that you can play along

(02:58):
with our over Under challenge and try to not only
beat Colin, but win some cool prizes as well by
heading to fantasypros dot com Slash Challenge. Let's start with
the quarterbacks. As usual, Colin, I want to start with
Jared Goff going up against the Jaguars. He's QB seventeen
and DraftKings scoring in fantasy this season just over sixteen
fantasy points per game, obviously coming off this Sunday night

(03:19):
game where he throws five interceptions in a win against
the Texans. Very different defense he's going up against here
in Week eleven, the Jacksonville pass defense allowing eight yards
per attempt. That's third worse in the NFL. What do
you expect out of golf this week?

Speaker 4 (03:33):
Well, he'll play better. Jacksonville's offense with Mac Jones is
a knemiic and that means more possessions, better field position.
I do think they'll run the ball more than they'll
throw it, but I rarely like fourteen point favorites in
the NFL. I'm breaking my own rule. I think the
Lions roll. I think the way they won, which is
they played poorly for big chunks of the game. And

(03:53):
one it's a coach's dream that you can really bark,
you can really get after players when they play poorly
and win. I think the Lions roll in golf has
a very clean afternoon.

Speaker 1 (04:05):
The other quarterback we have here is Bo Nicks going
up against the Falcons obviously coming off a couple of
really difficult matchups in just in terms of the opponent
with the Ravens and the Chiefs the last two weeks.
Not that the Falcons are bad, but not quite on
the same level you know seen as contenders like Baltimore
and Kansas City are bow Nicks QB thirteen and scoring
the season for a fantasy on DraftKings over seventeen points

(04:26):
per game. A lot of that has come from the rushing,
and he's been QB seven over twenty points per game
since Week five, so he has gotten better as the
season has gone along. What are your expectations against the Falcons.

Speaker 4 (04:36):
I worry about a little bit of a letdown after
losing a gut punching loss to the Chiefs after they
outplayed them and bo Nicks outplayed Mahomes. But I think
Peyton's one of the sharpest guys in the league. Atlanta
presents almost no pass rush, so I and I've said this,
I like Courtland Sutton, I like their tight ends. I
like bon Nicks. Their left tackle Bulls is excellent. I've

(04:58):
been betting on Bonnicks all season. Atlanta presents very little.
It's a dome team going to cold Weather. I think
bo Nix does well.

Speaker 1 (05:06):
I'm glad you brought up Courtland Sutton. I've been really
kind of struggling to identify what I like and dislike
about the skill position group in Denver. Like obviously, we've
seen a lot of kind of you know, in and
out from the from the backfield Orodric Estimee had his
first big usage game this week, only fifty three rushing yards.
Jonte Williams in and out. Cortland Sutton's a player I've
always liked, but feels maybe miscast as a wide receiver one.

(05:27):
Do you think that this supporting cast around bo Nix
is good enough?

Speaker 4 (05:32):
I think they have to. They have a left tackle,
a back. I think Courtland Sutton's a low end one,
but he's a big target. Their tight ends are more
than serviceable. I think they're receiving. Mims is young, Franklin's young.
I don't think they'll go wide receiver in the draft.
I think they'll go maybe another running back, shore up

(05:53):
the offensive line, maybe the very back end safety. I
think it's good enough, and I also think we have
to consider Sean Payton's coaching. He's a great play designer,
excellent play caller, and bow Knicks had sixty one college
start so he's a heady kid who's seen everything. He
had multiple coordinators in college, so he clearly grasps offense quickly.

(06:13):
I thought he played really well. I even thought he
played pretty well and the blowout lost to Baltimore, so
I think even in his games that he's struggling, he's
been productive and confident.

Speaker 1 (06:23):
I like bo. Let's look at some running backs here.
Kirien Williams at New England RB six on DraftKings this
season over fifteen fantasy points per game, going up against
his Patriots rush defense allowing four point eight yards per carrie.
What do you expect out of Kyron this week?

Speaker 4 (06:39):
Well, they're not playing Blake korm A lot, so he
gets a majority of the carries and he was invisible
in the first half against Miami. Some of that they
got down they were chasing points. I think Kyron's excellent.
I think they'll go run heavy because they don't know
what to expect as a dome team in New England's
harsh weather. I think the game plan this week for
Sean McVay is physical, Kyron Williams the lead dog. I

(07:03):
think he's gonna have a twenty plus carry performance. It's
one of my favorite plays of the week.

Speaker 1 (07:08):
How about Christian McCaffrey against Seattle. Obviously, he was the
number one overall pick in a lot of fantasy drafts
this year in most fantasy drafts, really outside of the
injury concern, and then that concern turned out to be
a whole lot more legitimate than people might have thought.
In early August, his first start back of the season
in Week ten, he was RB seventeen on DraftKings, thirteen
rushes just thirty nine yards, but doing what he does

(07:29):
in the passing game six catches for sixty eight yards.
Going up against the Seattle defense, what do you think
we'll see from Christian McCaffrey this week.

Speaker 4 (07:36):
I can't get my arms around the Niners. I don't think.
I don't think their offensive line maybe is as good
as the credit it gets. I think half this league
runs a variation of this offense, so the element of surprise,
the debo jet sweeps aren't as effective. I think he'll
have a bounce back. The Seahawks don't know what they

(07:58):
are on either side of the ball. They are a
talented team that doesn't have really any identity. So I
think Christian has a better week. I mean, it's like
when players come off long layoffs or like say two
of the concussion, it's usually the second game that somebody
off a long break or a long injury really pops.
So I think he'll be reasonably productive. But I don't

(08:20):
love what I see with the Niners O line.

Speaker 1 (08:23):
A couple of wide receivers here before we get out
of here, George Pickens going up against this maligned Ravens defense.
He's wide receiver thirty four on DraftKings. This season has
played differently since Russell Wilson came into the starting lineup
as quarterback. Obviously again going up against his pass defense
that is beaten up. Kyle Hamilton limited in practice. It
did not look you know, during the game when he
went down with that injury. I didn't expect to see

(08:44):
him back this week, So we'll see what happens there.
Two hundred and thirty seven receiving yards for Pickens in
four career games against the Ravens. It's his third most
against any opponent. Just one touchdown in that stretch. What
do you think we'll see from Pickens.

Speaker 4 (08:57):
Well Kyle Hamilton. His absence takes a bad secondary and
makes it awful. And I also think they're physical matchups.
Listen the underdog in this game. The Steelers underdogs do
well in this game. And I also think the one
thing where Russell Wilson feels a lot like Seahawk Russell Wilson,
the deep ball is back. He is aggressive. He's never

(09:19):
been great at throwing the ball over the middle of
the field. He's a very small quarterback. He loves the
deep ball. And as his movement has regressed a little bit,
he can still move. He's not Aaron Rodgers, but his
movements regressed. He's now really leaning into the deep balls.

Speaker 2 (09:36):
Now.

Speaker 4 (09:36):
He always did that, but in Seattle he was very mobile.
I like Pickens, I like the rest, I like the
Steeler team the rest of the way. I think the
deep ball is his best friend.

Speaker 1 (09:45):
And I think.

Speaker 4 (09:46):
Pickens is a remarkable athlete, one of the great athletes
in the league. You just saw him last week run
over two corners a safety. I mean, he's got a
slight build, but he's one of those long, lean, strong
play so you get yards after the catch with him.
As well, so I like Pickum's here.

Speaker 1 (10:05):
You mentioned that Russell Wilson has really historically never been
very good throwing over the middle of the field. It
feels to me in watching this Ravens defense, that's where
I see a lot of the damage being done, whether
it's a receiver or a tight end or even a
running back. In the passing game, it feels like the
middle of the field is typically very wide open for Baltimore,
and the guys who have dominated on the outside have
been those like true alpha number one receivers. You know,

(10:27):
the Jamar chases the CD lamps of the world DeVonta
Adams when he was still with the Raiders. So I
wonder how that's going to play out in this game.
I'm actually really surprised that totals forty eight and a
half on DraftKings. I feel like Lamar he's been the
best player in football this year, but he's struggled against
Pittsburgh historically. I don't know if you know the Steelers
offense is designed to take advantage of the biggest Ravens
weakness in the middle of the field. What do you

(10:48):
think about that total being as side as it is.

Speaker 4 (10:50):
Well, I think Pittsburgh finally has a redeemable offense. I
think Arthur Smith, it was really good with Tam doing this.
Great offensive coordinators can identify what you do, but more
importantly what you don't do well. I mean, remember Ryan
Tannehill was a guy that, like we were surprised he

(11:13):
had much of a market. He became a pro bowler
in the AFC with Arthur Smith. Now, Arthur didn't make
it as a head coach, but a lot of that
is Desmond Ritter. He may not be an NFL quarterback.
I think when you give Arthur Smith a legitimate franchise quarterback,
he does magical things. And it's not a coincidence. This
offense is getting better every week, So I think I

(11:35):
think Pittsburgh is seen now as not your typical Tomlin
Steeler team. I think the offensive line has overcome injuries,
the run game again kind of forceful Russell. Russell still moves,
so I in most instances the last five years, I
take it the under. But I think this is a
real offense now, and I think I think the odds
makers are illustrating that.

Speaker 1 (11:55):
Last player here, Colin DeAndre Hopkins at Buffalo not very
good numbers on the season long stats on Fantasy but
since joining Kansas City wide receiver nineteen just under ten
Fantasy points per game on DraftKings. Going up against this
Bills defense, what are your expectations for Hopkins?

Speaker 4 (12:12):
Well, I like Kansas City in the game. He's their
Rashi Rice. He's going to be their volume target. He's
going to be a I mean, listen Nuka Travis Kelsey's
numbers the last three weeks. They're looking for volume right
now without Rashi Rice, and so I think he's going
to get ten targets and you know with Mahomes, seven
to eight of those are caught. I like the hop
He doesn't separate. He was never a great separator. That

(12:34):
was never his game. So when people say, well, you
know he doesn't separate, that was not his game. He
was a catch radius guy. He was good after the catch.
He was good in traffic. So he's aged, actually I
think very well. Reid and Mahomes. Again, the longer he's
in the system, the more they can scheme him up.
So I like the hop in this game, and I
like the Chiefs.

Speaker 1 (12:55):
Remember everybody to head to fantasypros dot Com Slash Challenge
to play along all seas and long. Thanks again for
joining Colin. All Right, I guess we'll get into the
questions otherwise fits is gonna get ornery. Question number one, Actually,
you know what, I jumped the gun. I do want
to very quickly talk about Thursday night football, Dero. You

(13:16):
were kind of mentioning it before we started recording that
this is kind of how you thought the game was
going to play out. Eagles twenty six, Commanders eighteen. It
was a pretty poor performance by this Commander's offense, particularly
the passing game. As of the end of the third quarter,
there was nobody besides Austin Eckler with more than one catch.
Only one wide receiver even had a catch. I think
it was one catch for four yards, so Noah Brown

(13:38):
at through three quarters. I mean, it was just everything
was near the line of scrimmage. Everything was going to
the running backs or was a run itself.

Speaker 2 (13:46):
From the way you.

Speaker 1 (13:46):
Described this is how you expected to pan out. You're
not concerned about the Commander's offense.

Speaker 2 (13:53):
I'm not concerned about the Commander's offense, so I wasn't
surprised about how the game played out. I thought the
Eagles are going to win the high time though, they're
going to run the ball very, very effectively. Actually thought
the Eagles would beat the Commanders by more than they did. Actually,
but a few things about the game, and like Cliff
Kingsbury just looked like he went back to the Week

(14:13):
one playbook. It was like run, run, run, run, screen, screen, screen,
don't look downfield. Now whether that was Cliff being Cliff
or a function or result of Jade Daniels in his health,
because I know Dan Quinn came out after the game
talked about, Okay, you know the ribs aren't a problem, dude,
you watch the game. The ribs are a problem. Like

(14:36):
Jane Daniels did not look like he looked tentative anytime
he was forced to run. He didn't look dynamic. There's
nothing wrong with his legs. He looked like he was
basically bracing for hits. And the other thing about it
from the pocket you saw it as well, like how
many passes last night did he skip in front of receivers?
And that's not I mean, Jade Daniels has shown throughout
the rest of the season that basically like he can

(14:58):
get it done as a passer. So I think the
ribs were more of a problem than the Commanders are
letting on. I don't know how much that impacted the
game plan or it was just a poor game plan
walking into this game from Cliff Kingsbury. But the Eagles
winning and quietly, I would say, the second half in
a dominating fashion. The way they did that didn't surprise me.

(15:21):
The way that the Commander's offense, to a large extent,
the way it operated, did surprise me immensely. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (15:27):
Fits thirty two passing attempts from Jaden Daniels, sixteen of
them went to either Austin Eckler or zach Ertz. To
give you a sense of the game. What was your
major takeaway coming out of this one?

Speaker 3 (15:38):
Yeah, remember how terrible these two pass defenses were at
the end of last season, Like, these were two of
the most atrocious pass defenses in the league. Huge improvements
by both and like the Eagles, I think are now
just a bad matchup in the passing game for people
like this at the beginning of the season, Like, if
you had a quarterback going against the Eagles, you were

(15:59):
probably excited because after what we saw late last year.
But Quinnyon, Mitchell, Cooper de Jen like those guys have
really helped with the pass coverage. The pass rush looks
more fierce than it was late last year, and Washington's
passa you can still run on Washington, but man like
night and.

Speaker 5 (16:16):
Day with their pass defense too.

Speaker 3 (16:18):
So that was kind of my takeaway, Like I don't
think it was necessarily just disappointing quarterback play, Like it's
a higher bar for quarterbacks to clear going against these
two defenses these days.

Speaker 2 (16:31):
I can't wait to see, not the final form, because
I can't wait to see what the Commander's defense looks
like after another draft class and free agency, because they've
got so much money to spend after this season. Dude,
I can't wait to see what this defense looks like,
even when they get marsha On Lattimore fully healthy, Like
dan Quinn has moved more towards it was kind of

(16:51):
feeling it out and trying to make things work. A
lot of too high coverage to begin the year. The
last three to I think it's four weeks tons of
single high a lot more man coverage, and Lattimore is
a player like we've seen it in stretches man like
when when teams or defenses allow him, the coordinators allow
him to man up in shadow. He's been extremely good
at that. So in this in this defense, I think

(17:14):
we're gonna see a lot more man coverage and I
can't wait to see what it looks like in two
to three weeks from now.

Speaker 1 (17:20):
Yeah, the fact that Washington already has the offensive line
largely built, like all they need to do is pass
catchers and defense, and that's they so much money to
do that. So I totally agree. Also, Quine and Mitchell
is really really good. How did how did the NFL
let this happen? I loved him in the draft. I
couldn't believe he was following one. It's one of those

(17:41):
Eagles one is keep getting away with this. They can'tkeep
getting away of this. It is very reminiscent of Sauce
Gardner two years ago, like rookie season, defensive Rookie of
the Year, All first Team, All pros a rookie just
looks like one of the best cornerbacks in football, Like
really really impressive. All right, let's jump into our key
questions Colts at Jets. As we're going to start off,
Indy is going back to Anthony Richardson, So, Fitz, what

(18:04):
does this change for fantasy managers for the Colts players
and for Richardson specifically, where are you ranking him against
the Jets?

Speaker 3 (18:11):
It has put the value of the Colts pass catchers
in the dumpster basically, I mean like their value has
gone up in a puff of smoke. You know, we
were excited about the passing volume with Joe Flacco. Here's
what the passing volume is going to look like with
Anthony Richardson. He has played five full games this season,

(18:32):
He's averaged eleven point two pass completions in that span.
And now they get Michael Pittman back, So this very
small pie is being chopped up more ways. Like I've
got Josh Downs ranked wide receiver thirty nine this week
in half point PPR, and I consider Pittman, Alec Pearce
and Ni Mitchell, those guys are just completely unplayable. As

(18:54):
for Richardson, like tentatively ranking him quarterback twenty, I'm still
like optimistic long time, but like the Jets, I know
their defense has been a little disappointing. Still a pretty
good pass defense though. Whatever Richardson does for fantasy, I
think he's gonna have to get it done on the
ground this week, Deep.

Speaker 1 (19:11):
Road, do you agree that Josh Downs is the only
Colts pass catcher worth starting.

Speaker 2 (19:16):
I do with Michael Pittman. I mean, I don't think
he's still fully healthy. Alec Pearce has been so hit
or miss like it's Alec Pierce is one of those
players will look back at the end of the season
and say, oh, look at these season long numbers and
it's like, when did you ever start him? Or how
many times did you actually start him whenever he popped
off for a big game? Probably never. So I'm a

(19:39):
little bit higher on Josh Downs than FITZI is. I
agree with the other pass catches in this offense, but
I've got Downs at wide receiver thirty. Part of this
is to what FITZI highlighted at the end there. This
this past defense has not been the same man like
since they got rid of Robert Sala. This past defense
has not been as good. Since Week six. They're allowing
the eighth highest yards per attempt, the fourth highest EPA

(20:02):
per dropback, especially to slot wide receivers where they're giving
it up like since week six again kinder matchup like
tenth highest PPR points per target to slot receivers. So
I think Downs is a strong wide receiver three. Although
I do think that the pass game volume is going
to come down, but Downs should be the go to

(20:23):
receiver for Richardson this week.

Speaker 3 (20:25):
Yeah, but Downs needs the volume though, And that's the thing,
Like he is not a big play guy. He's going
to average like around ten yards of catch. This dude
needs to be. Like the last couple of weeks, it
was kind of disappointing, but he still had like six
and seven catches, so he had a decent day. If
you're playing him in like PPR or half PPR. Now
he's not going to be getting six or seven catches

(20:46):
a week. And unless he pops off a big play,
which is really not his forte, I don't know. I
think you're going to be left with marginal flex.

Speaker 1 (20:55):
Value just quickly fit since everybody's starting him anyway. Are
we more excited about Jonathan Taylor with Anthony Richardson back.

Speaker 5 (21:03):
Yeah, theoretically.

Speaker 3 (21:04):
I mean we didn't see as much of it early
in the season as I would have liked. Like I
thought there was gonna be a lot of cool looking
RPO stuff from this offense, and like, I don't know
how much of that we really saw early in the year,
So I mean, I hard to say, like, I don't
know if it's an upgrade for him like he was.
He looked fantastic last week with Joe Flacco, you know,

(21:26):
didn't get in the end zone, didn't really do much
as a pass catcher, so his fantasy day wasn't great.
But Taylor looked amazing last week.

Speaker 1 (21:33):
De you broke any quick thoughts on Taylor.

Speaker 2 (21:35):
No, I think it's a push, to be honest, I
think a lot of people are going to say, like, oh,
mobility quarterback, But dude, Taylor was freaking awesome. It doesn't
matter who the hell the quarterback has been. So I
think it's honestly just a push. He was awesome. He'll
still be awesome.

Speaker 1 (21:48):
Let's go to Ravens at Steeler's best game of the
one o'clock Eastern window. This late is so great because
he's got a great gave in the early great gave
in the late afternoon, in a great Sunday night game,
so the whole day you're going to get some good
foot ball. Hopefully. Ravens at Steelers is that game for
the one pm Eastern window. Steelers have historically been really
the only one of the only defenses to consistently limit

(22:09):
Lamar Jackson. He hasn't played them that much considering how
long he's been in the league. It's been a lot
of he was out with COVID, or had an injury,
or it was the last game of the season and
they were arresting starters. So we haven't seen this matchup
as much as you might think. But when we do
see it, Lamar has tended to struggle, at least relative
to the rest of his career. But this is the
best Lamar we've ever seen. So, Deebra, what are your
expectations for Lamar going up against this defense that has

(22:30):
given him trouble in the past.

Speaker 2 (22:32):
I think you'll be fine. To be honest, I'm not
worried about him, and I know, like I don't want
to say, like, you know, Okay, well it's Lamar, you're
starting him. But since Week five, we're talking about Pittsburgh
Steelers past defense that has allowed the fifth most passing
yards per game, they have been middle of the road
seventeenth and success rate per dropback. So I think on paper,

(22:53):
you know, we get so married to like what these
defenses look like like. In the entirety of the full season.
I like to go back and specifically people are reading
the primer like and look at the season in microcosms
of like the last five weeks, four weeks, look at
how teams are playing more recently to really get a
better sense of how they're playing. So I'm not worried

(23:16):
about Lamar, Fitz.

Speaker 1 (23:17):
What do you think? And you know, part of it is,
you know that maybe Tomlin has had kind of Lamar's
number recently. The other thing is that Tomlin, you know,
in this defense as a whole, did pretty well just
last week against Jane Daniels, who is not you know,
on Lamar's level yet, but you know, obviously stylistically, you know,
you think of him as a running threat, and they
did a pretty good job there. So what do you
think out of the we'll see out of the Baltimore offense?

Speaker 3 (23:40):
Well, I worry about stroking your ego too much as
a Ravens fan, but I do feel like this offense
is getting to be pretty close to unstoppable. I mean,
the threat that Derrick Henry poses for them as a
runner has just made Lamar even that much more efficient
and dangerous as a passer. And I didn't really realize

(24:01):
the extent to which Lamar has been lighting it up
as a passer lately. Since the start of October, Lamar
is averaging three hundred and one point eight passing yards
per game and has thrown for at least two hundred
and eighty yards in each of those six games. Like
he's putting up monster passing numbers and always gives you
a little something as a runner to at least a

(24:21):
little something, if not more than a little something. So
man like Lamar has just been you rolled Yatzi if
you drafted Lamar to be your quarterback this year. And
it's just such a fun offense. Like if they can
just you know, I hate to say it, where them,
but like Super Bowl favorites, if they can just find

(24:41):
a tournique for their pass tease.

Speaker 1 (24:43):
Yeah, they can just be a middling pass defense they
can have in the offense. It's it's the advanced stats too, right,
like DVOA has them historically high. I think Aaron Schottz
said that Lamar's like his deva version of like a
passing value metric Dyaar. I think it is is like
the gap between him and number two is like wider
than the gap of teen two and like player thirteen

(25:05):
or so, that's I'm kind of butchering the stab, but
it's something like that where he's just been passing alone
has been amazing. De bro any other thoughts in this
passing attack Deontay Johnson revenge game?

Speaker 5 (25:16):
Maybe No?

Speaker 2 (25:17):
I mean, dude, I think it's so funny that everybody
like thought that Mike Tomlin was throwing shade at Deontay
Johnson or the at least they tried to fire people
up about that. Deontay Johnson ran two routes last week,
Like Mike Tomlin's not telling any lies, Like you got
to be on the field for me to worry about
defensive game planning against you, and Deontay hasn't done that
to this point. But the big thing I'd like to
talk about worn just real quick, is that I'll own

(25:40):
some of my previous statements about Monkin and this passing
offense earlier in the season. They have really found their direction.
They have really found their way. I think a lot
of that has to do not just Lamar playing awesome,
not just the so many weapons around him. I think
the offensive line figuring it out and finding their way

(26:00):
has really helped this offense to be more functional, and
it's really taken into another level. Mark Andrews, whether we
want to talk about like his health maybe, like which
has not been talked about, like the Ravens haven't come
out and said like he was limited to start the season.
We've seen a very different usage from Mark Andrews, especially
last week, in the last few weeks. But this is
arguably the best offense in football right now. Like, they

(26:23):
have so many ways to beat you, they have so
many different weapons, and quietly, Rashad Bateman is bawling the
hell out man like he is looking like the player
that I thought he was when he was a prospect.
Finally healthy, his roles changed in this offense. I mean,
their defense is terrible, but dude, you're gonna have to

(26:43):
score thirty to thirty five points to freaking beat Baltimore
right now.

Speaker 1 (26:47):
I don't think it's even arguable that this is the
best offense in football right now. Well the last that
you never know, this team has had their struggles in
January certainly, Like I'm not going to come out here
and say they're Super Bowl favorites or anything like Fitz
was alluding to. But as of right now, I don't
think there's a case against them as the best offense
in football just with what Lamar is doing, not that
there aren't other good offenses, and the Steelers offense has
been playing better too, especially since Russell Wilson kind of

(27:09):
took over. I want to ask you guys quickly just
on the other side of this one, because a lot
of people have talked about Russell Wilson great matchup, this
past defense stinks, and they're right. However, the two kind
of areas where the Ravens struggle most. And obviously I
watch a lot of Ravens defensive plays middle of the
field where Russell Wilson does not throw, and the Steelers
don't make most of their hay or these elite wide

(27:31):
receiver ones Jamar Chase Seeding, Lamb Rashi Rice when you're healthy,
DeVante Adams in week two. Those are the guys that
have really burned the Ravens or the middle of the
field guys, and that's not really what the Steelers have
unless you put George Pickens in that category, which I
think he's still a tier or two below those guys. So, deebro,
do we think that we're maybe overrating this matchup for
Russell Wilson given stylistically how they play.

Speaker 2 (27:53):
No, I mean I understand like Russell Wilson hasn't seen
the field maybe since in the middle of the field
since high school. But regardless of that, I think they'll
be fine this week. I mean, like, dude, George Pickens
can get it done. Mike Williams. I think that Mike
Williams and his role in this offense and how much
he plays this week, I think is going to play
a big role, a big role on how well Russell
Wilson plays as far as his ceiling outcome. But Dude,

(28:17):
Russell Wilson's played extremely well in the sense of like
he's getting it done. I do think a lot of
it is. I think there's a regression coming for Russell Wilson.
I don't think it happens this week because if you
look at like a lot of his yards per attempt,
all the different stuff, he looks really freaking good, Like
he's thirty yards per attempt amongst forty one qualifying quarterbacks,
but the other like threading the need old type of

(28:39):
accurate stuff, accuracy stuff like he's thirty fifth and Cpoe
he's fortieth and highly accurate throw rates. So there's a
regression and like a down game coming for Russell Wilson,
But I do not think that it happens this week.

Speaker 1 (28:51):
Yeah, fits. I guess it comes down to, in terms
of the way I'm framing it, how you viewed George Pickens,
if he is kind of that alpha guy that can
really take advantage of this Ravens defense, because if not,
then it reminds me a lot of the Bills offense stylistically,
and that was in offense that the Ravens defense actually
shut down this year. But again, if you think Pickens
is playing at that high of the level, then that

(29:12):
kind of changes the calculation. What do you think, Well, I've.

Speaker 3 (29:16):
Got Pickens top ten, but we know there's always bust
in that Boomer bust profile. You never know, like he
could give you the two catch game that the game
where he for whatever reason doesn't seem particularly inspired.

Speaker 5 (29:28):
But it's funny, worm. I know you've been talking.

Speaker 3 (29:31):
About the soft pink underbelly of the Ravens pass defense
the middle of the field a lot, and it inspired
me to bet the over on Calvin Austin receiving yardage
at twenty and a half yards because I figure if
they are if Russ does choose to attack the middle
of the field, which debatable, he does prefer throwing the boundaries,
no question. Maybe Austin is the guy who does some

(29:53):
of that damage. So I kind of like that. But
bet it's interesting though. The Steelers are this run heavy team.
They've run on fifty three point three percent of their
offensive snaps this year, and the Ravens great against the run,
not so good against the pass. Do the Steelers stick
to their guns and run the ball or do they

(30:14):
open things up and let Ross cook? But please, Worm,
do not ask me to go spelunking. And Arthur Smith's
brain don't want to go there.

Speaker 1 (30:22):
Kyle Hamilton also, I don't think he's gonna play, or
if he does, he's gonna be really limited. And if
that really helps the screen game, if the Steelers want
to try and take advantage of that. So yeah, a
bad defense getting worse in Baltimore. By the way, Just
the last thing, I think forty eight and a half
points is too high for the total on DraftKings, you do,
I think that's I think that's way too high. I
like the under on that for sure.

Speaker 2 (30:41):
How do they not get there though, Like because it
do do the Steelers not put it up because we
know the Ravens are gonna put up twenty five twenty
eight points.

Speaker 1 (30:48):
I don't know that the Ravens Twitlers kink gets the
Ravens Steelers is almost always lower scoring. Again, like Tomlin
has done really well against Lamar, I worry about TJ.
Watt going up against the right side of Theravens offensive
line is worse than the left. I worry about TJ
walk going up against the right side. I know they
lost Highsmiths, but they get her big back. I just
don't think the Ravens are going to get thirty points

(31:09):
twenty eight points in this one. And like I said,
I worry that stylistically, the Steelers like are not the
best matchup for what the Ravens. The one the few
things that the Ravens defense can do. I worry that
that's what the Steelers are going to try and go
up against. So I mean, if this total was like
in the mid forties or low forties, Like I'm not
saying it should be in the thirties or anything like that,
but forty eight and a half, like almost close to
fifty points like, I just think that's too high.

Speaker 3 (31:31):
Personally, it's hard to fathom for you as this. You know,
the fan is used to these Ravens Steelers game Flacko
versus Roethlisberger sixteen to thirteen.

Speaker 5 (31:41):
A lot of field goals could be different, though this.

Speaker 1 (31:43):
Time A lot A lot of the advanced analytic guys
like the over in this one. So I might be
proven wrong, and maybe this is just my kind of
fan narrative peeking through, but yeah, I just I saw
that number and I did a double take.

Speaker 2 (31:54):
You're just trying to keep expectations for your team, and Jack,
that's all you're doing.

Speaker 1 (31:58):
All right, Let's get the fits this Steve Packers is
that Bears fits. We're gonna talk about Chicago side of things, though,
any more interest in the Bears offensive players now that
Shane Waldron is out. What do you think our expectations
should be?

Speaker 5 (32:10):
Uh low?

Speaker 3 (32:12):
Yeah, not a lot of hope. DeAndre Swift is playable,
but that's it. I mean, the Bear's passing game is
a train rack right now. The offensive line is bad
and banged up. Caleb is holding onto the ballway too long.
He took nine sacks last week against the Patriots. In
the three games since the Bears Week seven by Caleb
has completed fifty point five percent of his passes and

(32:32):
has averaged one hundred and fifty six passing yards per
game and four point nine yards per attempt. Like he
has just been lost and it's gonna take more than
a week to fix it.

Speaker 1 (32:42):
Debro, what do you think.

Speaker 2 (32:44):
I I'll echo everything that fits, he said, Like, it's
you play DeAndre Swift if you got him, probably the
pass catcher. I feel best about that as the best
matchup is probably cole Commit honestly, but I don't want
to play any of these Bears pass catchers. You sit
all of them, Like Kayleb Williams looked terrible. It's it

(33:04):
and people, I'm not saying that Shane Waldron made a
good offense, but we really need to understand and lay
a lot of this at the feet of Kayleb Williams too.
And dude, this I threw a lot of this out there,
like I'm not I don't want I want him to succeed.
I want him to play well and I want him
to have a really awesome career. Like the talent is
definitely there, but playing on schedule, not running in seventeen circles,

(33:28):
like not trying to make everything a home run play.
A lot of these bad habits you could see on
his twenty twenty three film at USC and it's and
it's not changed, and it's like, dude, like you can't
get away with all that kind of stuff, Like that
can't be like that kind of secret sauce is great
when you need to go out there and make a play,

(33:48):
but that cannot be how you were attacking every single
snap in every game.

Speaker 1 (33:54):
You famously hated him during the draft process.

Speaker 2 (33:57):
Didn't you. He was like QV three, don't God, No,
I wasn't insane, but like I had him as my
TV three and like during the process people hated that.
They were like, ah, this is all just like hot Muda,
and I'm like, no, Like I'm just acknowledging that there
was a larger or a wider range of outcomes for
Caleb Williams than I think some of the talk was

(34:19):
about him. Now. I still think that the upside is
still there for him, but there's a lot of stuff
he's going to need to clean up, and like systematically,
they're going to have to change how how an offense
runs or is built around what he does well and what.

Speaker 1 (34:31):
He struggles with classic Debros. They're really clapping his hate.

Speaker 5 (34:35):
Yeah it was.

Speaker 3 (34:36):
It was a good call by Debro for sure. I
mean he might have totally whiffed one McCarthy over Drake May,
but got to give him credit for Caleb Williams.

Speaker 2 (34:43):
JJ's coming from that receipt next year fancying. I know
you don't want to give any Vikings love, but he's coming.

Speaker 1 (34:49):
From Barticlear with how good Drake May has looked just
quickly scaled one to ten fits long term concern for
Caleb Williams five five, Debra.

Speaker 5 (34:59):
Somewhere in the middle.

Speaker 2 (35:02):
Six and a half. I'm not gonna say seven, but
like I'm definitely above the media and like they have
to nail this next head coaching higher. If they do not,
I mean we're gonna he's gonna go possibly the road
of like so many other like young quarterbacks, new offensive system,
new play caller, new offensive system, new play caller, and

(35:24):
the guy just gets churned through all this different stuff
and it ruins him.

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Speaker 1 (37:22):
Debro Vikings at Titans. Is Calvin Ridley back in the
circle of trust for fantasy managers? He has eight or
more targets in every game since the week five by
and his last three games include ten catches for one
hundred and forty three yards, five catches for seventy three yards,
and five catches for eighty four yards and two touchdowns.

Speaker 2 (37:42):
In terms of his weekly floor being higher, yes, based
off the volume, Do I feel rosy about rolling him
out there every week? No, It's still a Will Levis
led offense. You're still giving that type of target quality
on a weekly basis, which is not good, and the
backup is not any better and Mason Rudolph. So the

(38:05):
big thing I want to highlight about Calvin Ridley this
week is that the coverage matchup specifically for him, is
gonna be tough. He's been much much better this year
against single high Minnesota runs too high at the highest
rate in the freaking NFL. Against too high, Calvin Ridley
one point four yards per route run. So I think
the target volume is going to be there. I don't

(38:26):
think the big day is going to be there for
Calvin Ridley, and I mean again like purple Hayes baby,
Like do we think that Minnesota Vikings defense is going
to make Will Levis's life a living hell this week?
That's gonna happen?

Speaker 1 (38:39):
Fitz, What do you think based on the rankings I'm
looking at here when their last updated, you are several
spots higher than debro on Calvin Ridley. So are you
expecting a bigger day than he is?

Speaker 3 (38:49):
I am, And maybe the efficiency is down a little
bit against you know, this Vikings team, But the Vikings
have allowed a lot of receiving yardage to wide receivers.
And over the last three weeks, not only has Calvin
Ridley had let's see, three hundred yards in his last
three games, I care more about the target chair it's

(39:12):
thirty four percent over his last three games. Like he
is a true alpha receiver. Now it's amazing. Like a
month ago, you could not start either Calvin Ridley or
DeAndre Hopkins in fantasy and now they're both like solid
wide receiver twos, Like guys you want to get into
your starting lineup every week. So yeah, like for me,
he's back in the circle of trust, and we talked

(39:32):
about this on the starts at show Worm. There are
a lot of fantasy managers who have a lot of
scar tissue related to Calvin Ridley, and you know you
just got to pick that scab and roll with them, man,
Like this isn't a true alpha receiver right now.

Speaker 2 (39:47):
The best way that I guess, the best parallel that
I can make about my feelings about Calvin Ridley, I
look at his situation and I look at Jacoby meyer situation,
and I think they are EXAs exactly the same, Like
both of them are going to see twenty eight to
thirty percent target shares, both are going to see a
ton of volume. Ridley's just had the big games, whereas

(40:08):
Myers is seeing the same target volume, same bad quarterback play,
but really just walk away with the big games lately.

Speaker 1 (40:15):
Yeah, I he's one of those guys that I have
scar tissue from for sure. Deever, do you have like
a player that has burned you enough times on starting
them in the wrong weeks? Is there one that comes
to mind for you? Because really's not that.

Speaker 2 (40:27):
Short list for me? Really's on the short list for
that the guy that I feel like I haven't gotten
right nearly enough. Like I pegged the really big game
that he had against New England, did not see the
one against the JSN has been flummencing, flummixing me this
this year, Like I feel like I got the one

(40:48):
big game against New England right, but the other one
I totally whiffed on. So yeah, it's been when do
you feel good about playing him?

Speaker 1 (40:55):
Let's go to Browns at Saints. And we didn't really
talk about this guy on the start six shoh. I
wasn't on the waiver wire stuff in the early part
of the week. But I know a lot of people
on Sunday we're talking about we cannot actually in good
conscience recommend this guy. But I have to ask, considering
the game he's coming off of, are we starting Marquez
Valdez Gantling coming off his three catch game for one

(41:17):
hundred and nine yards and two touchdowns? Fits where are
you ranking MVS?

Speaker 2 (41:22):
Uh?

Speaker 3 (41:22):
He's outside the top fifty for me, not too far
outside the top fifty. I've just I've seen too much
of the MVS show in Green Bay. There are moments,
but there's also a lot of misery, and it's just
it's always going to be a wide range of outcomes
for him because the target counts are unpredictable and usually
on the lower side, and he has this high average

(41:44):
depth of target, so they're going to be shot play
opportunities for him. And when he cashes in a couple
like he did last week, it looks glorious. But then
he's gonna let one clang off his hands. They're gonna
be a couple that the connection just isn't on targets.
So no, I don't think you can start him with
any comfort level. I gotta say, though, Debro as a

(42:04):
Saints fan, for all his warts, Derek Carr throws a
really pretty deep ball.

Speaker 1 (42:10):
Man.

Speaker 5 (42:10):
It does like that guy can spin it.

Speaker 2 (42:13):
It's one of the few freaking things he does well.

Speaker 1 (42:16):
Debra, what do you think about MVS this week?

Speaker 2 (42:18):
I've got him as a wide receiver four. I got
him at wide receiver forty seven. I agree with pretty
much everything fits, he said. The one thing I'll I'll
add here on MBS is to the point of like
fits he talking about like okay, as far as that
the high average up target the reason I'm higher than
FITZI and I have him as a wide receiver four
and I think there is a ceiling outcome this week

(42:40):
is because the correlation is true is you play MBS
versus teams that suck, versus deep balls that are bad
versus deep ball passing. And the Browns quietly have been
terrible versus that, Like they're allowing the fifth highest passing
yards or deep passing yards and they've allowed the seventh
highest deep passer rating. And speaking of Derek Carr's deep
ball's good. And so I think there is a ceiling

(43:02):
opportunity for MBS. But if you're playing him, just know
that the reality of him getting you sixteen points are saying,
like you know, two for eighty, the reality of him
getting you one for five as far as like one
reception five yards is just as real as the ceiling outcome.

Speaker 1 (43:22):
Yeah, I don't think there's really much more to add
on mvs. Obviously, great game last week, Still only three catches.
He's wide receiver fifty one an ECR right now for
a half PPR. So he broke a couple of spots higher,
but not like he's aggressively ahead of consensus on this one.
We're all kind of on the same page here. Let's
go to Seahawks at forty nine ers. Obviously good game

(43:42):
for the NFC West, the late Slate, the late afternoon slate,
not just Bill's Chiefs. It's all some really interesting games here.
We'll get to all of them. Seahawks Niners are the
first one. Though Christian McCaffrey returned last week, wasn't super
efficient running the ball, did have six catches for I
think sixty something yards. I forgot to write that down.
What did you do you think of his return in
week ten? De bro and what are your expectations for

(44:03):
him this weekend beyond? Is he back to a I
mean you're starting him obviously, but is he back to
a set and forget it, top three, top five running back?

Speaker 2 (44:11):
I think he is based off of the volume and
Fitzy nailed this. I was more tentative last week. Fitzy
was all over this the entire week, like, if he
comes back, he's coming back to his his role. They're
not going to limit him. And I was I was wrong.
I was absolutely wrong, dude. He played eighty eight percent
of the snaps. He had nineteen touches, like.

Speaker 1 (44:30):
Six catches with sixty eight yards. By the way, was
the number.

Speaker 2 (44:33):
RB ten for the week and he I mean that
was basically with a if you because he didn't score
a touchdown, I'm not wrong in that, right, Guys, Like
if he scores a touchdown, he's a top three option
for the freaking week. So I will say that he
did look like a guy that was in his first
game back, Like the receiving utility is always going to
be there, like he could roll out of his roll
out of the bed and like get three for forty

(44:54):
through the air. But like the fact that in the
early downs he didn't force any mistackles and he only
got one point four to six yards up to contact
per attempt, I think is more indicative of where he's
at right now. So volume, touchdown equity, past game role,
all those things a gonna be awesome, But I think
that we're still gonna have to see, like he's gonna

(45:15):
be rounding into form now. Seattle could make him look
amazing this week because their run defense is bottom five,
so they're probably gonna boost a lot of these tackle
breaking metrics for him.

Speaker 5 (45:23):
Though.

Speaker 1 (45:24):
Fits CMC is back at RB one in ECR, so
everybody kind of saw with anything to seed and slide
him right back in that spot. Even ahead of guys
who've been doing it all year, like Derek Henry, like
Saquon Barkley, who we already saw play last night. You know,
they're all behind Christian McCaffrey right now in the rankings,
and so were you just kind of full steam ahead
as if he had never been hurt.

Speaker 5 (45:44):
Yeah, he's my RB one. I did move him.

Speaker 3 (45:47):
I initially had Saquon RB one, and regretfully I moved
McCaffrey ahead of him. Kyle Shanahan just can't resist giving
CMC more touches than a man of his stature should
probably be getting. But yeah, I thought it was gonna
be like fifteen or sixteen touches last week. It was
actually nineteen. We're rolling with him, and uh oh, by

(46:08):
the way, you also have to roll with Debo in
this matchup. Deebo just crucifies the Seahawks whenever he plays them.
Like over his last four games, Debo has been over
one hundred receiving yards in three of them, and I
think his low watermark was like seventy eight yards.

Speaker 5 (46:22):
Like, Deebo just destroys Seattle.

Speaker 2 (46:25):
Debro.

Speaker 1 (46:26):
You mentioned that one of your maybe scar t issue
guys is Jackson Smith and Jig. But where are you
ranking him this week in this matchup with DK Metcalf
likely returning.

Speaker 2 (46:35):
I've got him as a wide receiver thirty four. I
think he's gonna get a lot of targets, but I
don't think he's gonna I don't know what he's gonna
do very much with them. DK Metcalf is going to
be the primary option. And this all that comes back to,
like again, the coverages, Like since Week four, forty nine
ers have had fifty five percent of the defensive snap's

(46:55):
have been single high. The the target share re rearly
really moves in the direction of DK Metcalf when Seattle
faces a single high and Jackson, Smith and Jig, but
has not been great, I mean one point twenty five
yards per route run. San Francisco has also been very
good against slot wide receivers, like eleventh fewest fantasy points
per game. So I think he's gonna We're gonna see

(47:17):
one of those kind of four or say five catches
for fifty type of days out of JSM this week.

Speaker 1 (47:24):
By the way, is there anything official on Metcalf? I mean,
I know we're all like very much assuming he's back
this week.

Speaker 2 (47:28):
I didn't see he practiced in fold, so I mean,
I think he could be a full.

Speaker 1 (47:32):
I just want to make sure I didn't do anything. Yeah, fits,
I mean the last time we saw JSN, he looked
really good and looked like he was deserving of getting
a whole lot more workload. But that was without DK Metcalf.
So where are you ranking him this week?

Speaker 4 (47:45):
Right?

Speaker 3 (47:45):
One hundred and eighty yards in the two touchdowns against
the Rams, And I want to be optimistic because that
looked spectacular, But I'm pretty much right where Dee broy is.
I've got a mid wide receiver thirty three. The thing is,
he's played seven games with DK Metcalf this year. He
is top fifty one yards in just one of those
seven games.

Speaker 2 (48:03):
That was the Patriots game. I think, right, I think so, And.

Speaker 1 (48:06):
Where you guys are ranking DK Metcalf doesn't change based
on the last thing we saw from JSN. Right, you
think he's still solidified enough that whatever JSN does isn't
going to impact him. Or do you think maybe they
tried and split that difference a little bit more.

Speaker 2 (48:19):
DK Metcalf's the alpha this passing at Tech. I got
my I agree.

Speaker 1 (48:23):
I just wanted to ask, because again JSN does look amazing.

Speaker 2 (48:25):
Last time we saw where do you have DK this week?
FITZI fourteen?

Speaker 3 (48:31):
That might be a little might be a little too low,
but you know he's a guy.

Speaker 5 (48:36):
You're unquestionably starting in ECR.

Speaker 1 (48:38):
He is wide receiver thirteen, so right in that same spot, guys,
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four nine five zero four zero. All right, guys, Falcons
at Broncos. Broncos defense looks more like their usual strong
cells against Kansas City than they had the week before.
In Baltimore. Do you have any concerns for the top

(50:25):
Falcons players in this matchup given how well the Broncos
defense has played recently.

Speaker 3 (50:29):
Fits So, I don't know if we get smash games
from Kirk Cousins, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, But
I don't know if anyone can stop be Jean Robinson
right now. I don't really have any concerns for him.
He has been just so impressive, so so good lately.
He's averaging ninety two point six rushing yards over his

(50:50):
last five games and five point three yards per carry.
Just watching him like he is one of the smartest
runners in the league. Just the way he sets up
his blocks and knows exactly when to pump the brakes
a little bit and when to punch the gas. It's
just he's become such a fun guy to watch, and
now the Falcons are finally like giving him the sort

(51:13):
of workload he deserves a guy befitting his talent. I
think over those last five games he's averaged something like
seventeen point six rushing yards per game, Like that should
be pretty much the floor for him every week. This
guy needs to get at least sixteen or seventeen carries
weekend week out.

Speaker 1 (51:29):
De bro, what do you think?

Speaker 2 (51:32):
I think Bjon is the truth. Since Week six, the
RB one in fantasy by a decent margin two point
six fantasy points per game. Just Bijon has been amazing.
He hasn't scored less than twenty one point five Fantasy
points in PPR setting over these last five games. So

(51:52):
I echo everything fits just said. I think that looking
at this matchup, I think this game points specifically to
two two players being or should be the focal point
for how Atlanta attacks Denver, and that is Bijon, that
is also Kyle Pitts. The secondary for Denver has been very,
very good. The coverage structure for them is really leans

(52:13):
itself to Kyle Pitts. They run Denver runs single high
almost fifty nine percent of the defensive snaps Kyle Pits
versus single high two point eight three yards per route run.
So you're staying away from the good corners specifically, and
I mean that's gonna lead me right into Drake London. Dude,
I don't know. I have gone back and forth so

(52:33):
much about where the hell am I going to rank
Drake London for this week. I have him at wide
receiver twenty four right now, I really want to push
him into wide receiver three territory. And I know people
are gonna say, like that is an overreaction, but before
I really I really want to know where you have
him this week, FITZI. But before we get to that, like,

(52:55):
I just got to bring this up. Man, Like the
Week one matchup that he had against Joey Porter, I
think we see shades of that this week. Patrick Sirsan
is going to shadow him. That is going to happen.
And in Week one, Joey Porter followed drake Lonnon on
sixty five percent of his routes. Drake Lonnon had one
catch and seven receptions. Patrick Scsan has shadowed five times

(53:18):
this season, following a wide receiver on at least sixty
percent of the routes. None none of those wide receivers
have surpassed thirty receiving yards in his primary coverage and
zero touchdowns with certain shadowed them. So like, I am
hugely worried about Drake len I'm like, he's got a

(53:40):
score this week to maybe even be like a wide
receiver three. But Fitzy, am I overreacting here.

Speaker 3 (53:47):
I'm maybe not as positive as you are that London
is going to be shadowed by Sirtan Like I know, pff,
I think they're projecting Darnell Mooney to actually run more
rout since is the coverage of Cirtan than than I
don't know if that's right. Like, it wouldn't shock me
if London did get the shadow. I've got him in
wide receiver fifteen, and it's mostly that I don't really

(54:09):
like any of the options after about wide receiver thirteen
or fourteen, like Metcalf, and then things go down hell
fast after that.

Speaker 2 (54:16):
He shadowed Metcalf, Mike Evans, George Pickens, and Garrett Wilson
on at least sixty percent of the routes. He followed
Myers on fifty percent of his routes, and nobody, nobody,
you know, he didn't shadow anybody outside of that. But
that's that's a freaking impressive list of good dudes that
he just shut down.

Speaker 1 (54:35):
Let's go to the game of the week, Chiefs at Bills,
one of the games of the season. Rather than trying
to identify one question to analyze in this game, I
wanted to kind of let you guys have a chance
to pick one player who you think in this game
will outperform expectations, and one player who you think in
this game will underperform expectations. And by the way, while
we were recording, it was announced that Dalton Kincaid is

(54:58):
officially out for this game. That as well fits I'll
start with you here. Pick one player who will outperform
expectations and one player who will underperform.

Speaker 3 (55:09):
Then I guess I gotta steal Dawson Knox from Debro
just like that's the guy. Like Kincaid is out and
the Chiefs have given up the most receiving yards in
the league to tight ends, it just seems like, you know,
plus Amari Cooper, we don't really know about his status.
It seems like he's tracking to play with his wrist injury,
but like he's said, it gives him some difficulty catching

(55:31):
the ball, So if that turns out to be a problem.
We know Keon Coleman's not playing for the Bills, so
I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Dawson Knox with
like five or six catches for fifty plus yards underperform
James Cook like the Chiefs run Dye has just been
lights out fifty two point six rushing yards per game
allowed to running backs, three point two yards per carry

(55:51):
allowed to running backs, third in the league in DVOA
against the run, and Cook's probably gonna need rushing volume
to uh, you know, make his bones in fantasy this week.
He doesn't always get it. He's had twelve or fewer
carries in four of his nine games.

Speaker 5 (56:06):
So far this season.

Speaker 1 (56:07):
Do you throw what you think?

Speaker 5 (56:10):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (56:10):
The Dawson Knox call, I mean right now with the newsworm,
I just moved Dawson Knox up to tight end twelve,
and I mean people are going to say that's too high, bro, Like,
come on, like.

Speaker 5 (56:20):
I had I had him at te twelve already. Yep,
you bro.

Speaker 2 (56:23):
I mean, dude, he all I needed was the confirmation
that he was going to be their starter this week.
That's all I was waiting for. I think he's going
to crush. The other guy that I will highlight here
is Khalil Shakir. I've got him. Where's the ECR at
right now? On him? Worm? Because I'm kind of curious,
like I haven't looked and seen that I want to
be above, massively above consensus on him.

Speaker 1 (56:47):
See the ECR has him at wide receiver twenty six.

Speaker 2 (56:50):
I've got him at wide receiver fifteen this week. And
anybody that thinks that's crazy, dude, anybody that thinks that crazy,
that's crazy has not been reading the primer and has
not seen what Kansas City has done versus slot receivers,
Like they're allowing the fourth highest receiving yards per game
and the second highest fantasy points per game to opposing
slot wide receivers. Coverage matchup is as it's immaculate, like

(57:10):
you could not draw up a better coverage matchup for
Khalil Shakir, like Kansas City has the third highest rate
of too high against too high this year Khalil Shakir
since Week seven, since basically he has been thrust into
this high volume roll against too high since week seven,
thirty percent target chare for Khalil Shakir forty percent first

(57:32):
read here like, so Josh Allen when he drops back
this week, it's going to be I'm looking for Shakir,
where's he at? Okay, Dawson Knox, where are you at?
That's the two reads every single time, and and Fitzied
nailed this. I have nothing else to add on James
Cook bad matchup. I'm worried about him.

Speaker 1 (57:48):
What about on the Chief side, because you guys both
picked both players on the Bill side. Is there anybody
in the Chief side that you think will either outperform
or underperform expectations this week?

Speaker 2 (57:58):
Dude, I want to be above consensus. Where where's DeAndre
Hopkins in ECR right now?

Speaker 1 (58:04):
Hopkins is at wide receiver twenty one.

Speaker 2 (58:07):
Okay, I've got him at wide receiver fourteen, And I
really think that, you know, we look at the name
of the Bills on paper and we say, wow, it's
a past defense to stay away from. They've shown some
kind of cracks in the pavement over the last few weeks.
Since Week five, they've allowed the tenth most Fantasy points
per game to perimeter wide receivers. I think Hopkins is

(58:28):
set up for a quietly like really really good game
like and that that also flows over to Patrick Mahomes like.
I don't know if people realize this is a quiet,
like damn good spot for both of them.

Speaker 1 (58:39):
If it's any thoughts on the Chief side.

Speaker 3 (58:41):
Quickly, yeah, I mean, I'm not My concern about Hopkins
te Bro is if Juju is coming back and they
put Juju back in that slot roll that Rashi Rice roll,
is there going to be the sort of target count
we want for DeAndre Hopkins?

Speaker 5 (58:57):
You know what I mean?

Speaker 3 (58:58):
Like, is he going to get Pepper in the same
way if Juju is back? And like, I don't expect
Juju to be getting a full Rashi Rice target load
now that you know Kelsey has been taken out of
moth balls and Hopkins is there. But I do wonder
if targets maybe get chopped up a little and we
can't count on Hopkins for even like seven or eight targets.

Speaker 2 (59:19):
The biggest pushback I have on Juju right now is
I don't think in his first game back, as much
as he's dealt with hamstring issues, I don't think he's
gonna be a full time player. So I think we
you know, it's a valid concern. I think in the
next like two to three weeks, I don't think he's
gonna be a full time player. This week, I think
he's probably gonna see like a thirty to forty percent

(59:39):
route share. I think they're probably gonna mix him in
with Justin Watson this week. So that's that's probably just
the difference in how we how we're viewing this week's outlook.

Speaker 1 (59:48):
Bengals at Chargers. Before we get to the key question
for Sunday Night's matchup, I want to ask you guys
about your Uber Eats Sunday Night Meals of the week debro.
What must order food gets you reaching for your Uber
Eats app for great game day deals when you think
of Los Angeles?

Speaker 2 (01:00:04):
Dude, I know we went back and forth on this
and we were like, Okay, what are we Who am
I going to talk about? Like I almost kind of
went to my go to here, but I have to
bring up Pink's hot dogs like that. That was the
go to for me. Like, dude, I know, hot dogs
like are kind of the ick for a lot of people.
But a good freaking chili dog there's I just it's

(01:00:26):
one of my comfort food. Man.

Speaker 1 (01:00:28):
So, like I was shacked. Dog that you dropped in
slack is ridiculous.

Speaker 2 (01:00:31):
Oh my dude, it's ridiculous. A nine inch stretch dog
with onions, mustard and freaking onion rings on it, specifically
four of them for all of his championship rings. I
was like, oh, I just I mean give me three
of them. I'm in heaven. I'm in heaven.

Speaker 1 (01:00:47):
I actually can't stand onion rings. For the record, fits
what is your game, Dame de Old in Los Angeles.

Speaker 5 (01:00:57):
I'm going to hear about the onion ring thing in
a second word.

Speaker 3 (01:00:59):
But so normally my answers are are pretty carnivore friendly.
But I do appreciate a good chopped salad, and I
know Los Angeles is the birthplace of the chopped salad,
and there's some places in town that do it really well.

Speaker 1 (01:01:15):
The correct answer for Los Angeles is street tacos, and
that's what I will be picking. I am a fairly
picky eater, as evidenced by the onion rings, so I'm
like pretty particular about what I have in my tacos.
But the style of street tacos is particularly in the
place like la is just like one of the best
foods on earth.

Speaker 2 (01:01:33):
So I got boo this man when this gets posted
to YouTube, Boo this man on his onion ring take.
I got it has to happen.

Speaker 1 (01:01:39):
Well, I just don't like that.

Speaker 2 (01:01:40):
I don't even know, like I'm gonna have like gut
through the rest of this show just to deal with
that take.

Speaker 5 (01:01:44):
I don't like onion what's the beef with onion rings?

Speaker 2 (01:01:47):
It's the idice.

Speaker 1 (01:01:49):
I don't like onions. I don't like that. So remember,
as we've talked about before, I don't have a sense
of smell, so texture is very important to me. And
when I bite into an onion, it feels like even
like a small piece of an onion, like the chopped
up or whatever. It's like nails on a chalkboard to me,
Like I just can't see. Is it like the crunchy
like or I just don't like the texture of onions.
I don't know what onions and tomatoes are like, the

(01:02:09):
two big ones that like, and they're in a lot
of stuff, which is unfortunate. But yeah, that's that's my
only beef with onion rings.

Speaker 2 (01:02:15):
Now, it's not unfortunate for you because you're not eating.

Speaker 1 (01:02:17):
The style of onion rings is great. I'm sure you
know anything fried is awesome, but yeah, the the onion itself.

Speaker 2 (01:02:24):
Not for me.

Speaker 1 (01:02:25):
There, you guys have it or Uber Eats Sunday Night
meals of the week, street tacos for me, the shack
Dog for Debro, and a chopped salad for fits. Uber
Eats has the best game day deals all season. Long
order now for game day, just please leave out the
onions the list.

Speaker 2 (01:02:43):
It's making me feel like I need to make healthier
life choices. I'm gonna say that.

Speaker 1 (01:02:46):
Yeah, going to a salad. The list of quarterbacks playing
better than Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert right now is
quite short, and they are ranked back to back in
ECR for Week eleven. Who do you like better for
this Sunday night football matchup? Fits? And I will note
T Higgins is expected to play.

Speaker 3 (01:03:04):
Yeah, it's got to be Burrow, Not so much because
of Higgins, simply because the Chargers will take the air
out of the ball if they can. It is a
Greg Roman offense, after all, Whereas Burrow is gonna throw
and throw a lot his pass attempts the last three
games thirty seven, thirty nine, and fifty six. So yeah,
like that's how the Bengals roll, like they are gonna

(01:03:28):
fire away on you, and you know, the Chargers kind
of want to be a little more buttoned down, buttoned
down with their offense.

Speaker 1 (01:03:35):
Debro, what do you think I think we might see
another shootout similar to what we saw from the Bengals
on Thursday night last week.

Speaker 2 (01:03:40):
I think it's gonna be a shootout. I definitely go.
I'm going Burrow. I think he's arguably playing the best
football of his career right now. I've gonna make QB six.
I got Herbert a QB eight. I think that the Bengals,
if they do what we all think they're going to
do in this game, and they're gonna put up points
and they're gonna score, and they're going to pass, it's

(01:04:02):
going to force the Chargers out of their comfort zone.
They're not going to be able to They're not going
to be able to run the ball. I think as
effectively as a lot of people think that they're going
to in this one. Cincinnati's run defense has quietly been
much better since Week five. They're allowing the fifth lowest
explicive run rate, twelfth lowest misstackle rate, and yards are
to contact per attempt. So I think that this run

(01:04:24):
defense has gotten better, and the matchup itself, Herbert's going
to have to take to the air man. And this
is also I'm going to issue my apology letter to
FITZI here with Will Disley again surprising tight end ones
for the week. I have Will Disley inside my top
twelve f.

Speaker 1 (01:04:41):
It's this quarterback matchup is too good for a salad.
I know that you are any deed healthier as to
get older, So who am I to judge your diet?
But eight Bura Herbert that deserves meat and grease and
sow it deserves street tacos is really what it is?

Speaker 3 (01:04:59):
Good chill we have we have eaten meals together where
you know that I'm not any sort of health food
not like there's no mistake.

Speaker 1 (01:05:06):
What do we combine for about nine burgers in Canton
this year at Georgia's exactly I've seen fits.

Speaker 2 (01:05:11):
He put down some food, man, Dude, didn't it? Yeah,
it's impressive.

Speaker 1 (01:05:15):
All right, Let's go to Texas at Cowboys Monday Night
Football to wrap things up on a scale of one
to ten, Debro, what is your panic level for Ceede
lamb Fantasy manager's rest of season? After he had twenty
one yards on ten targets in his first start with
Cooper Rush at quarterback.

Speaker 2 (01:05:30):
We're going full spinal tap. I'm kicking it up to
eleven eleven. I did wow, Cooper Rush is terrible and
there's nothing Trey Lance is not any better? Uh So, yeah,
I've I've had two big conundrums this week about rankings.
It's where where the heck do I put Drake London?

(01:05:52):
And how many wide receivers do I stack above CD Lamb?
Like right now I've got Ceedee Lamb as wide receiver
twenty seven. And this is not a Ceedee Lamb problem.
This is a Cooper Rush problem. And Dallas's offense is
I mean, we're going to talk about not want to
start any pass catchers from Chicago or possibly Jacksonville this week.

(01:06:12):
I don't want to start anybody from freaking Dallas. Dude,
Cooper Rush. I mean like he finished last week with
negative Fantasy points. He did not even cross one hundred
passing yards. How do we feel any better about Ceede
Lamb this week? I'm moving forward.

Speaker 1 (01:06:28):
I can't wide receiver seventeen and ECR debro too high
to lower.

Speaker 2 (01:06:32):
It's way too freaking high.

Speaker 1 (01:06:35):
That's what do you think?

Speaker 3 (01:06:37):
I've actually got him one spot a higher ed wide
receiver sixteen, and my panic meter might be broken because
I'm getting the same five reading that I had for
Caleb Williams. I might have to unplug it and plug
it back in.

Speaker 2 (01:06:48):
Did you turn it off?

Speaker 3 (01:06:48):
We'll turn it back on fancy maybe maybe things are
going to continue to be bad for Lamb, Like we
can't rule that out. But and I mentioned this before,
possibly on the show. When Dak Prescott got hurt early
in the twenty twenty two season and Cooper Rush had
to make five starts, Lamb averaged six point two catches

(01:07:08):
and seventy six yards in those five games. So those
are good numbers. He had a couple of touchdowns in
those five games. That's at least a little bit of
reason to hold out hope for Ceedee Lamb.

Speaker 2 (01:07:19):
I will say that the schedule right now for Dallas
is horrible, like with Houston and Washington. The next two weeks,
especially if Lattimore gets healthy, he does open up that
Ceedee Lamb probably has much better days. Like I'll be
ranking him as a wide receiver two in weeks probably
thirteen through fifteen. They get the Giants, the Bengals, and

(01:07:40):
then the Panthers and then the Buccaneers in six week sixteen,
But do they get the Philadelphia Eagles in week seventeen.
So I don't know how anybody's going to start him
in the fantasy championship week.

Speaker 1 (01:07:52):
By the way, we're about to wrap up, but just
because you always give me a hard time for not
doing older movies. I have seen this as Spinal Tap.
It is good. It is not my favorite of the
to for guest mockumentaries, It's like probably my third favorite.
Best In Show is the best one of those, and
I think A Mighty wind Is is maybe even better
than the Spinal Tap. They're all very good. I love
those movies, but I have seen Spinal Tap.

Speaker 2 (01:08:10):
Did your mom make you watch those movies while she
was in town? No? She did, nice to be asked.

Speaker 1 (01:08:14):
No, my best friend in high school growing up was
very into those Best and Show was the first one
I saw that movie.

Speaker 2 (01:08:20):
He was thinking it too, and then.

Speaker 1 (01:08:22):
I saw a bunch of the other ones from there.
So if those are great movies, I would strongly recommend
them if anybody hasn't seen them. And I just wanted
it on record because of how much you bring up
the movie stuff I've seen, Fitz. Do you like those movies?

Speaker 2 (01:08:32):
Your pop culture takes are so bad.

Speaker 5 (01:08:35):
I do love those movies.

Speaker 3 (01:08:36):
The mockumentaries are great, but Spinal Taps always going to
be my favorite. I mean, they just take every heavy
metal trope and it's so good, skew words so well.

Speaker 1 (01:08:45):
We started the show talking about rock music and we
ended up talking about this is spinal tap. That's pretty fitted.
We're opp up there for Fits and dee Bro. I'm
Ryan warmly thank you everybody for tuning in. Best of
luck here in week eleven and we'll see again next week.
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy footst. If
you love the show, the best freeway to support us
is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts at

(01:09:06):
Fantasypros dot com, slash review, or on Spotify. Follow us
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