The Favorites - NFL Week 10 Betting Preview

After nearly sweeping the board last week, Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return from Lexington to look at the Week 10 slate across the NFL. Together they start to narrow down their contest picks, which have yet to have a losing week this season. They breakdown the Browns, the Broncos, the Packers and more, plus give out their Simon Says, Executive Decision and Foxhole Bets of the Week. #Volume #Herd #ColinCowherd

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's the Favorites presented by FanDuel. Football season is here
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(00:21):
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(00:43):
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visit ks gambling help dot com. In Kansas call one
eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louisiana one
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redline is one eight eight eight nine eight nine called

(01:04):
one eight hundred five to two four seven zero zero
in Wyoming or visit www Dot one gambler dot net
in West Virginia. Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from
the Volume Podcast Network. I'm Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer

(01:27):
of the Action Network. We are live on AMP thanks
to everybody who's flooding in to join. I am joined
as always by my co host, my BFF, my companion
professional letter Simmon Hunter. Hello, so I am in Chad.

(01:48):
What a weekend from sports feels like? It was like
two weekends and one just feels like the longest weekend ever,
but a good long weekend. Some bad but overall good
long weekend. Well, look, you're sad because of the Phillies
and us listened to the bonus episode on Friday. You
know that, me and Simon and Matt Mitchell and Rory
from the Volume Network who's on the helping to produce

(02:09):
the show. We were all in Lexington this past weekend.
We did a live show there. Simon, Matt Mitchell and
Stucky Action Network o G co host of the BBOC
podcast the Action Network podcast. Listening to both They're amazing.
He lives in Lexington. Took us to a couple of
bars that his wife runs. We watched the Phillies game

(02:31):
on Thursday night, later into the evening. Tough night, but
I love seeing our fans, Loved hanging out with people,
love having people buy us shots. Saturday morning, Matt Mitchell
went to the airport in Lexington trying to get back
to his hometown of Schlamizo slamazl Milwaukee, Wisconsin through Chicago. Delayed, delayed, delayed, delayed. Yeah,

(02:55):
pretty rough Saturday for me. Got delayed six hours at
the Lexington airport with our colleague Alex Monico before I
shot you this message, and if you don't want to
hear me yelling, just skip ahead. Two minutes the day
of Breeders Cup, I get to the airport nice and early.
I run into Alex Monico there with the volumes. Nice.

(03:17):
We're hanging out. Happened a nicetime. Oh Our flight to Chicago,
the last flight leaving the airport in Lexington today, is delayed,
then delayed again. We look at each other like, I
think we're gonna be boned here. We're not gonna be
able to catch our connections in Chicago. If there's one
more delay. Then we see the gate agent smiles. She

(03:37):
grabs the pilot. Pilot smiles, he grabs the p a
to give an announcement. We're like, okay, we're in luck,
and the guy goes, all right, good news. The ground
stop at in Chicago has ended and we are good
to fly out. And then like he's like he's doing
an improp set. He waits like three Mississippi and goes
in two and a half hours, and everyone's booed in

(03:59):
the like night at the fucking Apollo at the fucking terminal.
Everyone's gonna miss their connections. We go to the bar,
we start watching the only people having a worse thing
than us, the Tennessee Volunteers. Because we bet on him.
We go, okay, you know what, We're gonna be fine.
We'll catch a red eye or whatever out of Chicago.
And I'm like, I could just rent a car and

(04:20):
I'll just drive home from Chicago, whatever it takes. We
get another announcement that there's a full ground stop in
Chicago again, but that's the fucking president is flying in
and we hit a weather delay election cycle. Air Force
one visit Parlay. I say funk this, I grab my ship,
I get in a rent of car. I'm driving on

(04:41):
I six now to do the seven hours home to Milwaukee.
My wife's left me. She's remarried. I think she made
a guy named Hank. My kids are calling him dad
now and I just I just live on the road
in this rented Nissan which is now my condo. Goodbye
to my old life. That's what he does or his
family as a Phillies fan, proud of the boys. It

(05:04):
was a fun ride. The worst part of that we
were up to one. I really that was when I
really bought in. I dip my toes and I believed.
But in the back of mind, I was like, come on,
Houston's gonna beat us. I got the two one lead
was all in. I don't know if you even chat
even has ever even been depressed. He's such a happy guy,
but something like me. I probably get depressed once a week.
I'm just a downer guy where it's like, even when
things are going good, I get down. So I woke

(05:27):
up Sunday dead. Like you know when those movies they
have the camera above the guy laying in bed with
his covers tucked in on him. You're just laying there
looking at the ceiling. That was me. I could not
sleep my slipgudule was all messed up from the traveling.
But I was literally like one of those things, like,
what's the point of life? What are we doing here?
What are any of us doing here? Hopped on a
zoom call with Chad and the other people at work
with I don't know. It kind of brought me back

(05:48):
a little bit. If me and Cha didn't have a
good day though, I tell you this much, that might
have been it for the boys. But luckily Chad it
worked out because I was like, not that sports complete
out of things, but it is the ultimate distractor, right Like,
I didn't have time to mourn, had to get right
to work. So still hurting, like it's Tuesday now. I'm
still like even everyone I wake up, I just can't
believe baseball is over. I think I'll be over end

(06:09):
of the week. But as a true die hard Phillies fan,
it hurts, like my my soul hurts right now. But yeah, Chad,
we were about to dive into it, but we're just cruising.
So the vibes are immaculate with the football right now.
But that Phillies lost hurt. You know, It's funny. I
don't really get depressed I figured, I'm preternaturally optimistic. We

(06:32):
did have an amazing week, right, so are big balls
better the week we basically swept the board? Big balls
better the week Tennessee plus twelve and a half. I
made you do it, covered Washington plus three and a half.
That was Simon says, you were on it right away.
Exact decision the Bears. That was a squeaky one, but
it worked out. It was exciting. Uh, Foxhole, you were

(06:55):
on it since minus seven. You didn't waiver a little
bit Sunday morning after convinced me, Avon made his case
for the Panthers. You're like, I might buy out, but
it's just me being nice to my coworker who's seven
hitting setting percent of the season right now. Check did
feel a little weird. It did feel a little weird.
You caved a little too quickly out of here. What
What was my exact quote? I said, I'd either only

(07:15):
place since here, I'd buy out. I never wavered on
everything in Carolina. Don't get defensive. You're about to get
defensive because Matt Mitchell was in the taxi ride at
the airport. He heard everything you said about Caroline and Chad.
You're not gonna speak out of this. Let's just say that.
Let's say you can follow all these picks in the
Action Network Gap download for free. This is under the

(07:37):
handle of the favorite podcast you can get the Big Balls.
Simon says, exact decision in foxhol every week. That's where
we track them. Yeah, separate handle. Phase five. This is
the one we do for our contest four and one
this week Seattle plus Washington plus three and a half,
Chicago plus four and a half, Atlanta plus three and

(07:58):
a half. But when we lost was one you surprised
me with on Sunday morning, and I I'm going to
take the blame for this because you threw in the
Raiders minus one and a half, which I never liked.
I told you I didn't like. I said, this is
gonna be the week the Jack's put it all together
they did. You said, if I don't do this, if

(08:19):
we don't do this, I will hate myself. No, no, no,
I said, I would hate myself way less doing this
than taking the Colts because you liked. I don't know
why you love the Colts. And I just refused because
it had already bet New England. I had taken New
England first. Half as luckily for our fans would follow
me in the action app got that bet, but I'm
with you, like the Raiders want to made me feel
gross too, But I just said you, I cannot take

(08:40):
the culture. Even you said it best. It was a
good number for the Colts, but there was just something
funky about the mojo of that game. So no matter what,
we were gonna because again Chad keeps taking these road
public Dogs. I don't know what's going on with chat
these last two weeks, but I don't get it. Chatty.
You're you know better. You knew that Carolina was a trap.
I do that. But listen, you got out of the foxhole.

(09:03):
Don't say it. Act like you can't hop out of
that foxhole. I hopped out of the foxhole. How could you,
my companion. I know it was wrong. It was wrong.
No more Public Dogs, though. You gotta stop doing it.
You're getting killed by the way we killed on Seattle.
Yeah yeah, but I mean I we both love that one.
That was a no brainer. How do we not talk

(09:24):
about Detroit? I think there are two and a half
So I wasn't gonna do that again. That that was
definitely a miss. I mean again, holy crap, Green Bay.
But yeah, a week we're traveling. Chad, we talked in
that that morning. I said best to you where I
was like, we probably should take our bio week here
because we do have to take a week off in
our contest. But I said, do I have three here

(09:45):
that I feel like it's a guarantee three? And now
luckily those three hit and then we just had needed
Seattle for that fourth one. So yeah, the Raiders one
I never felt good about, like full of regret, no doubt.
But when they were up seventeen, nothing, you know that
feeling Chads like fun. Yeah, nailed that one and uh
quickly fell apart in that second half. So upsetting. Well,
we're four and one. We're two games out of first

(10:08):
in a million dollar contest. I can't believe we're only
two games out of first. After going four and one,
we were three games out. I'm disappointed we didn't pick
up two games. It's a competition. I think we have,
like I don't even know, twenty thousand entries. So the
fact we're in the point zero one percent or whatever
we're at now, it's it's pretty sweet. Above sevent were
ten weeks in, had yet to have a losing week. Chat. Uh,

(10:29):
either at this going to run. I know, damn held
Chad has never had this go to a run. Nine
straight winning weeks is insane for a contest, pickle, unbelievable.
All right, let's get to it. Let's get to it.
Thursday night football, we got a rematch of the Falcons
and the Panthers. We had the Panthers in a miracle
cover two weeks ago against the Falcons. Yeah, down the

(10:51):
road at Carolina, three point favorites. Look, we all know
the play here. The play is the under? What under ten?
It doesn't matter, but we have to have an opinion
on this, either for the contest or otherwise. Uh. And
Like as much as I want to take the Falcons,

(11:13):
I do know that taking the home dogs on Thursday
nights generally to cover the totals forty forty four and
a half. It's kind of what we do. But I
don't like it for a contest. Yeah. And again we
got burned last Thursday on the under. They hit a
two pointer at the end of the game. Stupid little
penalty and that's why I went over. But you just
keep riding the trends, guys. We just keep betting these

(11:35):
primetime unders and they usually keep coming through for us,
where the public will just bet these lines up and
we're getting free points on the under. So look at
this game. Chat is probably right, that's probably the move.
But how can I not take the Panthers like they're
just give me three and a half please, I'm begging
the book give me three and a half. I would
love that, But I get there. You know you probably won't.
You probably won't right now. It's of the tickets, six

(12:00):
six percent of the money, so it's not trending that way.
Bigger delta on the tickets right now and the money,
I would say, yeah, it's gonna happen. Um, I don't
see it unless we get to you know, seven fifty
five on Thursday night. Yeah, so then, like again, I
wouldn't make one of my bigger bets. But to me

(12:21):
and this divisional kind of a matchup, this will be
in a short week, we blindly take the Panthers. What
we expect to happen here is Atlanta will win by
a field goal. That's just how this game shapes up.
I mean last week against the Chargers, they had a
missed field goal, they had a fumbled Varanto the game.
Like Atlanta easily could have won that game. This number,
no doubt would be minus four, minus three and a

(12:41):
half if they had, so hopefully give us the bump
of three points we don't deserve for Carolina because it's
a good number right now. Three is what this number
should be. It's what I have it at. I just
prefer to take the home dog on the Thursday night,
so three and a half that that'd be a real
gift by the sports book if we could get there.
Margo's Mariota also missed Kyle Pitts. Why yeah, that was brutal.

(13:03):
Would have been a lead extending touchdown. Our favorite team
in Germany, the Seattle Seahawks, the Buccaneers. Buccaneers are two
and a half point favorites right now. Here's what's interesting.
I was gonna take the Buccaneers at minus two and
a half, but I hadn't seen the splits yet. The
bets are on the Seahawks. Of the money is on

(13:25):
the Buccaneers. We've hit peaks Seahawks. You know, we did
the same thing with Atlanta, and we bet Atlanta that
extra week. They ended up losing to Cincinnati. I think
last week was a peak Seahawk moment. I think it's
a different game against the Buccaneers. I think this is
a get right spot at a short number. Sure it is,
but guess what, I will not be sucked in. Every

(13:45):
week I had these damn pros hitting me up, being
like quit taking. The Seahawks is gonna catch up to him.
And every week they keep winning for me, and they
keep covering, so I'll keep riding. I love the Seahawks.
Fun fact, Chad, you ever heard of man? No? No,
it's the die heart loyal fan base in Germany that
are all Seahawks fans. Yeah, random little fact. They have

(14:06):
one of these big fan groups there in Germany that's
apparently going to be like a home home game for them,
like they have that many fans in Germany. I'm so
scared the German. Don't let the Germans come after. I
love everything about it. Would be a gift again, another

(14:26):
gift if the books get us up to three, because
I think what you had talked about where a lot
of people view as is that Tampa's turned the corner here,
turn the season around kind of game for them, last
second come back against the Rams. What a joke. The
rams are to let that happen. In that game. You
have a team here, Seahawks, other side of the world, right,
do you know throws a pick six, goes down the field,
has two incredible drives to put his team back in

(14:49):
the lead. Like I know, I probably for the same way.
When he threw that pick, I was like, Okay, that's it.
You know, I had a nice run. That's how it's
gonna end it here. That like that's classic gino. Um No,
this team is humming. So maybe I'll get caught. Maybe
because of the flight to travel all this other stuff.
I can't buy that stuff. It's like modern medicine. These

(15:09):
guys get right. I mean they're all these you know,
billionaire airplanes. Uh team airplanes has everything you need on it.
I just can't. I can't get behind that. It's too
long a flight. And I know a lot of people
are actually capping that that there's like a four hour
difference in flight time or five hour difference. It doesn't
matter to me. I love the Seahawks. I'll just keep

(15:30):
taking them as a dog is they just keep people
just keep waiting for that the what we call to
catch a falling knife. With them like that, You're just
waiting for it to happen, like they're gonna fall off
a cliff here any day. Now the Seahawks will, but
you, you you know, just keeps playing at a high level.
He has these mental moments that's like exactly what I
look for in an elite quarterback. So I don't I
don't get it either, Chad. It's mind blowing. We talk

(15:51):
every year, there's always these surprise teams. No one saw
the Seahawks coming. No one did. Like again, the bookmakers
talk about the biggest they had all the summer on
them was about four hundred bucks. I think that's the
biggest bet I've seen on them for a super Bowl future.
So no one believes in the Seahawks, and here they
are leading the division six and three, still get no
respect from the public or the bookmakers, making Tom Brady

(16:14):
a favorite. It's maybe, Chad right here, I'm gonna get caught,
but I just can't see it. I think Tampa still
has major issues on that offensive line. Tom's got no time.
It's just an issue for that team. Are you saying
it's town versus time? I'm saying, Uh, the time is

(16:35):
not one yet, right, Tom's not the issue. I feel
like you agree for Tampa, right. So dude, he had
that terrible Facebook series. What was the called to right right? Yeah?
When he kissed his son on the Seahawks And I
don't want to spend too much time in this because
we're not going to put it in the contest, so
we'll see. Um. I love I mean, I love Seahawks man.
There's there's just good everything. I agree with you. I

(16:57):
don't think anything about them has been flukey. I think
their defense is getting better and better. They were really
great against Kyler Murray. They kept him contained a lot
of sacks. I mean, I love Kenneth Walker, love him.
And what happened on Sunday is exactly what we thought
would happen. We said it would happen. Kenneth Walker second

(17:20):
half of the game would start to dominate. He is
a big, strong guy who's super fast. Gino had that pick.
I'm like, oh boy. And then he came back and
he did great, and he was he was locked in
on a couple of Lockett had some bad plays and
he was throwing darts. I don't disagree with you. I

(17:41):
don't like the spot. That's my thing. I don't like
the spot. It's fair again they're in a bad spot
last week. It's just they're just that good. They're kind
of the team that breaks the mold. Um. That was
the biggest public side we were on last week, right Seahawks,
and it was one of our better bets. They won
by ten. Uh Jaguars visiting the Chiefs. The Chiefs or

(18:02):
nine and a half point favorites. I hate it, but
Chad knows we have to do here. I mean, it's
the same thing we did last week with the Titans.
Like as soon as that quarterback went out, the amount
of message I got there, like are you care that
it's not Tan Allen? It was like, no, we weren't
betting it because it was Tanned in the first place.
It's the Chiefs team for some reason in these positions. Um,
we have the data back it up. They just don't.

(18:23):
They don't cover if they're if they're bigger, then what
was the chapter If they're more than a seven point favorite, Um,
they cover it like below forty five clips. So just
going off the trends, we like the Jacks here, but
also what we saw last week with their offense, I
thought that was big for Trevor Lawrence down seventeen. They

(18:45):
did it like they kept driving up and down the field. Again,
that was one of the main games I had on
my TV um. I couldn't believe what I was watching
because we've seen it with them. They they are this
team that even when they came back, I still thought
we were gonna have a winner with the Raiders, just
because we've seen Jaguars come back. But then they just
fall apart in that fourth quarter. But they put it
all together and that's again a momentum flipping kind of thing.

(19:06):
So the Chief stole one last week. I remember earlier
in the year we tried to fade them after they
stole one against the Raiders. I think they put up
forty four points against that Fortyars defense. So in the
back of my mind, it's like, got to take the Jaguars.
But I've seen this where the injury puts them through
a hell of week of practice and they come out
even harder. So a little scary for that perspective, But

(19:29):
the problem you just is screaming, you gotta take the Jaguars.
So interesting to hear what other pros are saying this
week about this game, because I do like this number. Uh.
That was a Travis Etienne breakout game. And by the way, reminder,
you gave away Travis Etienne uh anytime touchdown and convinced me,
then gave it, gave out a two to go pet

(19:51):
on him for two touchdowns which also came through. Uh.
It was plus four hundred Texans plus six and a
half at the New Year of Football, Giants trending towards
the Pros Joe's game. I mean, inevitably, you're always gonna
get the Pros on the Giants and the Texans at
this point. But I don't know if I feel strongly

(20:12):
enough that I'm making us a contest game. We might
have to, though, because this is gonna be one of
the like I feel like you just nailed it where
the public will be all over the Giants and will
probably end up having to take the Texans. But I
hate it. I think me and Chad we had bad
run against going against this Giants team. We stayed away.
It's like the Seahawks against him. That was a no brainer. Um,

(20:33):
I finally gotta win against this Giants team. But they're
probably sucking me in here because again this line is
too big, like We know the Giants they're not that good,
and we know that Daniel Jones will play as well
at home. He plays better on the road. So to me,
this is just reeks of the Giants if they win
this game. They went by maybe a field goal, maybe
four points. Six and a half is so many points,

(20:54):
especially where we've seen Houston they have a good run
game like that that kids are real. He was running
all over that Eagles team. We've seen teams got run
against the Giants team. So I'm with you, Chad probably
won't be one of my favorite five. But another game
where it's like I feel like I don't have a
choice here, I have to take Houston. Yeah, football is ugly. Yeah,

(21:18):
that was like that watching that Houston Eagles game and
watching it with Matt Mitchell on that Thursday night we
were in Lexington. It was excruciating, right because they kept
it close cost us our first half. Eagles BETA kept
it close. I had the Texans to cover um, which

(21:40):
they did, and uh, you were against me on that one.
And then I think Matt Mitchell also had like Texans
plus six and a half in the third quarter and
in the second half he lost every one of those bets.
It was hit the third quarter. He did, yea and

(22:00):
a half. They kicked the field goal. That's right, that's right,
that's right. But no, that's that's what life is like
betting for this Texas team. You need to get lucky, right.
They got an opening drive touchdown and they didn't score
again until like the last seconds of the first half,
and they got all they got was a field all
the rest of the game and they covered. So like,
that's again when we talk about taking the dog and

(22:20):
the big numbers, that's the prime example. It's like, no
one has any idea how Texans covered that number, but
they did because it was fourteen. It was such a
huge number. So, um, can they get lucky two weeks
in the road. Yeah, I feel like you're that's what
you're kind of saying here. I don't know, hopefully not
as good a team. They're not playing as good a
team right the Vikings. This is an interesting one right now,

(22:43):
six and a half point underdogs at the Bills. We
don't know the status of Josh Allen m case keenum
is the backup quarterback for the Buffalo Bills. I mean,
it's a past for me until I get a better
sense of who's plan. I mean, it's probably an auto
play for me on the Vikings, just in the sense
that even if he is playing, we know there's an

(23:04):
injury there with Josh Allen, right, so you expect him
to be wounded playing in this game. If he does play, Um,
I want to take them if there's no injury, obviously,
no brainer, because we've been waiting to catch this Vikings
team and last week crazy man like Vinjage kirk Cousins.
If there is ever some you could say a one
o'clock game opening drive, puts up a touchdown and then

(23:26):
does nothing until about three minutes left in the game
where they got a field going a touchdown after like
you said, Ah, they had a terrible turnover by Washington.
It's it's one of It's just that year for the Vikings.
So I'm with each other, like I want to take
the bills here. Um, but man, that's that's a big deal.

(23:47):
If this guy he's he's hurt a major muscle in
his arm right now. Again, what they said is they're
gonna update today. It's an injury that could require Tommy
John surgery. So I'm sure man Mitchell is losing the
miner and I'm just waiting for an update. But it's
like a major deal. So I grabbed the seven and
a half. I'd still grab the sixth snap just in case. Again,
you can buy this position easily if he does come back. Um,

(24:10):
but to me, I wounded Josh Allen on a team
that he is. That team, like we've seen that offense.
It's literally built around Josh Allen. That's a huge deal
if he misses any type of time or even this game.
So I want to take like I said, I wanted
to take the builds here. This is gonna be a
nice spot for them, coming off a bad divisional loss
against the Vikings team that no one knows how they're

(24:33):
seven oh one, but jeez, they've just been lucky all season.
This Vikings team again, they've played three backup quarterbacks. They
might be getting their fourth this week if it's case Keeno.
I mean, I can't even imagine how Matt Mitchell is
getting through the day right now. Uh. Someone asked me
if I was more anxious for the broth of child

(24:55):
or this decision. I said, I got two kids. I
only have one Josh Allen. So I definitely feel like
throwing up all over the place until I find out
that he's uh anything less than think it's it's fine,
It's fine. Here's the game that I feel strongly about.
And by the way, we haven't given a Simon Says
an exact decision or a foxhold yet. Lions on the

(25:16):
Road at the Chicago Bears. Bears are two and a
half point favorites. Earlier today we had to give out
a couple of picks. The pick I gave out was
the Bears minus two and a half, and I had
a lot of reasons, but I want to hear your
thoughts first, because you actually didn't respond on that show.
So yeah, you know classic game where it's like every
fiber in my body is saying take Detroit like this

(25:38):
they're gonna be the public spy and the Bears. But
I'm a Fields believer, like I just I love what
I'm seeing from the kid. I love the way they've
been scheming him up. Ever since that Washington game. We've
seen a change in this offense um and how they
moved the ball Detroit outside. That's another big reason I
kind of want to fade it. We've seen golf be
horrible outdoors we've seen this offense not be able to

(25:58):
move the ball outdoors, and we've seen their defense give
up tons of runs, tons of yards to running backs
and running quarterbacks. Now we have arguably the best running
quarterback in football. So I know, child, I'm I'm right
with you. Where it's like the we're scared of it
because it's gonna be the most public side probably this
week one of the games that's gonna be the highest
public side. Um. But the Bears just feel like the

(26:20):
smart side this week. If it's under three, it might,
it might get to three by time you hear this.
But two and a half I have no problem to
take on that number. It's bouncing around right now. Was
that three? It's tad two and a half right now?
It goes back and forth. Let me give some stats, uh,
then I gave out on green Dot Daily today the
Bears are top two in every single Russian category. The

(26:41):
ones that mean nothing to better is like total yards
on the ground, as well as the ones that do
mean something, such as first downs on the ground, which
is an indicator of you're moving the ball on first
and second down and you're getting first downs early in
a series. Explosive plays on the ground, twenty plus and

(27:02):
forty plus touchdowns on the ground yards per carry. This
is a dominant running team because of justin fields, because
of Khalil Herbert and the Lions on the flip side.
Don't be fooled by the fact that they only gave
up nine points to Green Bay. They're terrible on defense.
They are bottom two in every single rush category. To me,

(27:23):
this is about a close game, the Bears owning the clock,
owning the ground, and the books haven't adjusted to field yet.
That's what I really think it is, too, because again
we talked last week, we thought that line from close
for a three or three and a half almost looked
like Diddiot's right. But luckily McDaniels one four and a
fourth and one stepp kicking that field goal, and now
we we've got lucky. Four or four and a half

(27:44):
was a great number and it worked out. I'm tempted
to make them my exact decision, but I made the
Bears my exact decision last week, and it feels there's
no rule. Chad, I don't know. It feels too homeless
to go back to back. Why not? And if you're hot,
you're hot. Exact decision on the Bears. Executive decision on
the Chicago Bears minus two and a half, the choice

(28:07):
between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are you with your
orders executive decision? Yeah, two and a half of the
key there. I'm surprised you didn't claim it for Simon says,
because it's going to move to three, and you already
know the two. I'm gonna be on chat. You already
know my secrets. It's true. This game is very interesting
to me. Saints at the Steelers Steelers plus three right now?

(28:32):
I know what do we do here though, because we
don't even know who the Saints quarterback is. So I
wanted to take Andy Dalton. If it's not I'm world
learning pretty quickly here. If it's not prime time, you
take Andy. If it's a prime time game, God forbid,
do not take any Dolton. How do I keep doing?
I keep not seeing these stats about him melting down
at prime time? She was the game start's action. We'll

(28:53):
tweet it out. It's like, yeah, he's six and sixteen
and primetime games. It's like, jeez, just left that money
on fire. Uh, he fucking sucks any Dultan, I don't
have to do here. Every every ounce of my body
wants me to take the Saints. They're the better team.
They're the more complete team we've seen Pittsburgh. They've been
a seller at they're seller the deadline, but not even that.
I just they had their offenses no identity, like if

(29:15):
they just have nothing there where. The Saints, I know
exactly who they are and what they are. So I
don't know. I'll probably pass this one for right now,
but I'm leaning towards the Saints. I just think they're
the better team. It was like a Mike Tomlin rob
Rod to me, Yeah, it probably straight up win this game, bro,
win this game. The Steelers had to buy the Saints

(29:38):
have a short week, a home dog. If you're gonna
get right and rally the troops around the guys in
the locker room, can you pick it, you know, an
extra week to learn. Yeah, the Saints coming off a
really devastating loss. That feels to me like you're taking
the Steelers here, and by the way, you're hoping to
get him at three and not have it go to

(29:59):
two and a half because the money's coming in on
the on the Steelers right now. On the line is
moving Browns. Boy, this number is moving too. Opened it
four down to three and a half. Visiting the Dolphins.
We got a pro Joe alerts of the tickets on

(30:19):
the Dolphins, of the money on the Browns. Simon Simon says,
grabbing says. When Simons says, do we do what sciences
and we blew? I mean we were laughing because we
talked this morning. I told Chad I loved it up
plus four and now it's already moving to plus three

(30:41):
and a half, so I would just grab it forward's
at three. Does the same scenario last week we had
with Washington in Atlanta, Like we saw those numbers of
three and a half, the pro's headed went down to
three and that's a lapp in this game. It's just
a classic scenario of Miami. They are four real like that.
Then then when that Bears game is a big deal
because I really didn't think that was kind of a

(31:01):
trapped spot for them. Like going on the road back
to back, playing out on the elements to a two
is showing up right. I mean the Wattle Tyreek Hill combo.
It's crazy, like we we rarely see things like this
where um again, people have talked about are gonna talk
about all week. Just the fact that my Home's on
pace for his best season ever passing and Tiree Hills

(31:24):
on his on pace for his best receiving year ever.
So him him getting two thousand yards again, I get
white people trying to make the MVP argument for him.
There's just there's other quarterbacks this year. They're clearly carrying
their teams. So I just could never see why receiver
getting over the quarterback position. But it is cool what
tire is doing, Like he's open all the time. You
watched all twenty two, Just never any green space for

(31:47):
him in a league that it's really it's really hard
to find open space, right. All these guys are so
fast with athletic he's just a notch above it. So
I'm gonna see I get why the public will come
in on Miami right there, tied for forst in that division.
But the Browns just they're not They are bad, right,
their defense does have issues, but their offense has so

(32:07):
many weapons. I just always can see them keeping up
with teams like Miami. Here that Miami coup put up points.
We just saw last week with the Bears. You can
move the ball in them, especially on the ground and
comes in Nick Chubb, one of the best running attacks
and all football. So matchup wise, I like Cleveland here
um the reason making this time and says I just
I just want to make sure Peoplen get the three
and a half before it goes to three. I hate

(32:28):
I hate people getting pushes like what happened last week. Yep, yep,
I'm with you. Uh three and a half across the
board right now, get it while you can. Broncos plus
three at the Tennessee Titans, let's ride baby, come on,
come on. It's one of the best defenses football arguably
going up against a right yeah yeah, like again, Russell Wilson,

(32:54):
we can goind them always one. This is gonna hurt
like a mother when we back them and lose this game.
But this is kind of the spot we we've we've
fade Rabel like we love Rabel as a dog. He's
very he's good to us as a dog, but as
a home favor Usually these are kind of games they
dropped the ones you don't see coming. The public is
going to be all over Tennessee. I don't even know
what the splits are, but they just went toe to

(33:16):
Toe would arguably the best team of football in the
Chiefs in Arrowhead in a primetime game like that right there,
Especially if you bet Tennessee last week, you're loving them
because it was like a no sweat, no brainer bet
and you're feeling good. Um, they're gonna back them against
a Denver team that everyone hates. Like again, Russell Wilson
has become a joke of the league. We've done well,

(33:37):
We've faded them earlier the season. I always talked about
there's a second half of the season. This is usually
want to come back in on the other side, and
it's like a guy that I'm gonna start back and
we'll probably end up being Denver just because people have
a really bad view of this team. Um, but yeah,
give me, give me the great defense against either a
rookie quarterback or a backup, backup and injured Ryan Tannehill.

(33:58):
I love that position in Um, it's bumped up to three.
I get see you get into three and a half
of the public coming in so heavy. But I would
grab the three just in case. I don't think it's
going there. Yeah, So I'd grab it just in case. Now, Um,
this is one of the bets I made right when
I saw get the three from two and a half,
I grabbed the denver Um been sitting there all day now,
So clearly the books don't mind you grabbing the three

(34:20):
because the public, the public is coming in that heavy
on the Tennessee Titans. It's uh, it's a plus three
minus one fifteen right now, get it while you can.
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(36:07):
eight Hope NY or text Hope n Y. In New York,
Tennessee redline is one eight d eight eight nine one
hundred five hundred in Wyoming, or visit www one eight
hundred gambler dot net. In West Virginia, the Colts are
on the road, six and a half point underdogs against

(36:30):
the Las Vegas Raiders. This is one of the most
surreal games we've got Jeff Saturday, no offensive coordinator. You've
got former pro coaches on the at least one former
pro coach, and Gus Bradley on the staff coaching the
best unit that the team has against the Raiders, who

(36:55):
are truly in ft right now. No, this it to me.
This is a outright pass like it makes no sense.
You're only inviting misery if you decide to beat this game.
I mean, one of the best life lessons you have
in life is watching what happens when guys who make

(37:18):
an incredible fortune have their own business give that business
to their sons. And we have two teams here, two owners,
both their daddies gave them their businesses, and you've seen
what both has happened with both franchises. So Jimmy say,
luckiest man ever to luck into Peyton Manning, Like what
the would the Colds be if they never had Peyton

(37:40):
manor Andrew Luck this franchise. It's terrifying. Like it's someone
that's a fan of sports teams, it is terrifying how
damaging owners can be. And we all know that all
sports they make or break teams. So the story goes
that Jeff Saturday was there last weekend for some Super
Bowl event. All the X players were there and he

(38:01):
was in JEMC was just talking about the team and
what he had views of the team and his vision
of the team, and then little did he know, he
didn't even know right, he couldn't believe he was there.
He got called in a week later be the interim
head coach of a team, like a guy from TV.
So just terrifun. I feel horrible for Colts fans, but
I told you guys weeks ago when the usually took

(38:22):
Matt Ryan out, I viewed them as taking I viewed
that fact they went oh too to Tennessee. That was
the attorney point of the season where they're like, Okay,
we'll tank this year, we'll get one of these top quarterbacks.
And that's the move. If that is really what he's doing,
Jim Mercedes a genius, And I take back everything I said,
because that's what this is, like that we expect him
to be horrible, right, Chad, Like everything about this screams

(38:43):
horrible decision, the move, the no c the awkwardness of
the whole thing, right, Like this guy coming in from
the outside compared to all these guys who have been there,
hate it like I want to take the Colts bad
because I know no one else is gonna take it.
And that's a huge number for an all for Raiders team.
But holy crap, what an absolute train wreck of a

(39:03):
franchise right now. That again, just a couple of weeks ago,
they were sitting there at three three and one like
they weren't out of it by any means, and it's
completely gone sideways these last couple of weeks. Well, look,
normally this is the exact spot where you take team
like the Colts. Uh, We've had a lot of success
over the years backing an underdog team with a coach

(39:25):
who had just gotten fired, or a team that is
making a quarterback change because the line gets so for
the for the favorites. This is fucking insanity. It's like
you you will let one reality star as president United

(39:46):
States and you just assume that anybody who's on TV
who can say something smart in thirty seconds or less
should be coaching the team. How do you, as Gus Bradley,
how do you and Jack Leonard, how Fox is there
as as like John Fox is there? How do you,
as anybody who has spent your career doing this for

(40:09):
a living standing in front of people, trying to motivate people.
It's hard to stand in front of a room and
tell people why they have to do something if they
have no faith in your ability to lead and don't
believe that you've put in the work or don't think
you know how to do it. I'm not denigrating Jeff
Saturday as a player. He was an amazing player in

(40:33):
respect and he had the credibility of a guy who
could stand up to Peyton Manning, and Peyton Manning relied
on him. He won a Super Bowl, fantastic center, one
of the best centers in the time he was playing.
Come huh, yeah, I mean Galaxy brain and me wants
to say Raiders fired McDaniels right now and hire Frank Reich.

(40:55):
That would be the move of moves. But again, they
have a kid running that we're gonna zation complete, completely terrifying.
If I was a Vegas fan again, this this guy
I can't get over. Like, if I ever build anything
out of my life to have my own ownership, no
chance I would leave it to my son. It's just
it just seems like it's a disaster. Every time I
promise you I will have nothing to leave to my

(41:16):
kids guarantee. So that's another pass. Uh. The Cowboys are
visiting the Green Bay Packers, and the Packers right now
are five and a half point underdogs, the biggest home
underdog Aaron Rodgers has been since two thousand and third.

(41:40):
Do you hear that shot? I didn't hear anything. Those
are the bullets flying above our heads as we hoped
down into a foxhole. We're going to the foxhole on
the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay Packers, Let's climb down
into the foxhole. No brainer, Chad. As soon as you

(42:00):
saw this line a little I felt he probably the
same feeling with me. This little smile comes across your face.
You think you fucking suckers. This is where you feel
like we're the smartest people in the room. Because this
is a classic pros verse Joe's the pros will be
all over this one. We don't even care if we
lose this one. This is literally a bet you make
every single time. Green Bay. I don't even know they're

(42:22):
the least respected team in football. They have to be.
Anyone that was left on them last week, there was
like five people left that were still betting Green Bay
for some reason, that was it. They lost to that
game against Detroit seeing Rogers started two picks in the
red zone. That had to end it. Right, there's gonna
be no one left. Chat, it's just gonna be mean
you when it's Fox will your brother. I'm telling you,
it's it's like the Bengals last week. Honestly, it's just

(42:43):
a game where it's uncomfortable. I hate it. I don't
only want to do this. You have to do this stuff.
It's like you love to fade public perception. Who cares
what happened last week. It's all about this week. And
then this week you have a Green Bay team at
home against the Cowboys, team historically plays at against them.
Mike McCarthy, first time coming back to this stadium where

(43:04):
all those years he spent. That's gotta be a big deal.
That's gotta that's gotta fact him doing the emotion of
this game. And again, emotions are a big game of football.
We saw the time coaches have these stupid blunders in
these games that really dictate a lot of games and
can get games closer when they should. So, man, I
love the fact of this line. It keeps jumping up.
I would have taken it for us three and a half.

(43:25):
No brainer to me on Green Bay. The fact that
it's creeped all up to five and a half now
just because like I just said it, everyone's gonna have everyone.
I'm saying, everyone will have Cowboys and their teasers, their
money line parlays. This is this is gonna be one
of the biggest needs of all the sports books. Happy
to take that position, Happy to take a position on
Green Bay. So um man, I can't believe it's gone

(43:49):
up to five and a half. But again, it's not
a surprise like the Green Bay. This is the worst
we've ever seen them in the Aaron Rodgers air right
at least since his rookie year. I think he was
six and ten his rookie year. Will be lucky to
get the six and eleven, but this is one of
those games they have to at least cover, right, Like
you just see this being a close battle just because
of um, what's going on with the Screen Bay team.

(44:13):
Do you think it would get up to um uh
five and a half because there's a lot of tickets
and um cowboys on the Cowboys right now? Yeah, this
will be this is like again, you can you can
go to your sports book when you make bets. You
can talk to hold one set hold on what sect?

(44:35):
I say five and a half because now I'm looking
and the line is basically moved to five. So do
we think it will go higher? Yeah? Because again, uh,
it's weird because I don't I'm not even trying to brag.
But like Chad knows, and I talked to him this morning.
It's not just talking to him, reaching out to all
my runners and all these other gamblers, and I know
exactly what they're doing, so I can tell you the

(44:57):
pros they've hit this number, saying with the Browns number
like that, just a no brainer bet today that I
knew a lot of people would be on. Um. Yeah,
I can I see getting back up there. Sure, but
again it's professional money that's gonna keep smacking that down.
So um, it all depends when the pros can do.
If they if they let it sit and in the
public keeps coming in, maybe books will bump it back

(45:17):
up to try to get more money in. But I
can promise you it comes Sunday. We'll see tweets that
this is going to be ten to one. The amount
of tickets written on the Cowboys compared to Green Bay.
The money will probably be twelve one one written on
the Cowboys compared to Green Bay, just because of all
the parlays and teasers that will be on the Cowboys.
So you can roll the dice can wait. But like

(45:37):
I just said, I'd grab that five and a half.
You can still get it. It's five, Yeah, throw a
little bit on there. I just can't see it dipping
below four comes Sunday. So worst case scenario, you'll grab
a four and a half, which is again a key number,
UM five and a half, five, five and a half.
We we view those as dead numbers. We still grab
them just because it's good value. What would you bet

(45:57):
this down too? I may get three, but I wouldn't
bet it. I wouldn't bet at three. I'd bet it
down to three and a half. Okay, because again it
feels like the Cowboys will still win this game. They're
the better team, they have the better defense. You expecting
to win this game. It's just again, we'll have this
in our money line around Robin. This is it for
Green Bay season. If you don't win this, it is

(46:19):
officially over. I mean, look, Mike McCarthy against Aaron Rodgers's
essentially what we're saying, crazy, just crazy. I like this game.
We're adding it to the list Packers plus five, Bears
minus two and a half, Browns Jesus Christ Brown's plus

(46:43):
three and a half, and Vikings if we can get
six and a half. If there's no h if Josh
Allen is out, there's there's a couple of the games.
There's at least one more game that I'm dying to
discuss that. I feel pretty strongly about Cardinals visiting the Rams,
Cardinals three point underdogs on the road. I don't have
any strong opinion on this right now. Yeah, I hate

(47:05):
I feel like I'm supposed to take the Cardinals here
because they're the better team, but man, just just awful.
It's like I could be convinced right if I hear
other shark groups are on it, But right now, sitting here,
like man, I don't even know if I have more
than five on this, Like I have other games. I
got five figures on right now, four figures. This is
nothing for me earlier in the week. So Cardinals feel

(47:26):
like the right side of the smart side, more complete team.
They actually have a pass rush that you could see
getting to Stafford. Stafford just hasn't looked right all season. Again,
take away Cooper Cup. This Rams team has no identity
on offense. He really is the team right now. So
Cardinals feel like the smart side. But I'm with Chet. Can't, can't,
can't make this one of my five Yet I have

(47:47):
high single figures on the Bears right now. I love
it alright. The next game, the next game, and for
a reminder, foxhold was Packers plus five. Simon says it
was Brown's plus four. It's really Brown three and a half.
Exact decision is Bears minus two and a half. The
next game that I want to talk about the Los
Angeles Chargers visiting the San Francisco forty Niners. The Chargers

(48:11):
are seven point underdogs. I'm telling you right now. I
am telling you right now, Simon. We have hit peak
over correction, way peak over correction. The market has come
down so far on the Chargers and gone so far

(48:32):
up on the Niners. Charges plus seven is an auto play. Yeah,
and I had the way from my guy having Abrams
put out this article. But all the trends will back up.
Fading Shanahan prime time favorite. Never good. You always take
the other side in these positions, and historically it will
work out for you, um Chargers as a big dog.

(48:53):
That's where we like them. We don't like them as favorites, right,
Like we joked last week, they're not They're not a
good team as a favorite person and they always played
teams close that they should beat up on this team again,
no one expecting them to beat up on him, right,
You're expecting this to be a closer game, especially towards
this fort nine side. Such a letdown spot right for
the Niners. Like Chad just said, they've been sitting back

(49:15):
all week here about how great they are as they
sit there at four and four, so crazy to think
they might drop this game. Then they'll be four and five,
and that is a massive, massive deal for that Seahawks
team sitting there at six and three. But oh, seven points,
seven points for Herbert here. I love that. I love that,
just the chances of the back door at that big
one number for a guy that won't stop slinging it.

(49:36):
So I'm right there with CHADU love it at seven.
Hopefully it stays there all week, but could easily see
this number dropping down as the week goes along. Here
I feel like we could come back around to this
game on Thursday. Is a big balls bet, yeah, I
mean it doesn't take huge balls yet though, because I
feel like like that you were spot on Tennessee last

(49:58):
week that one legit that took some ball. If that
was scary, I was scary to do this one. I
feel is like this is just the smart right play
where it's like, no fear, we just got we gotta
bet this one year. Um. But man, the Keenan Allen
injury and the Mike Williams injury, the Chargers clearly need
that back. Right. They only put up twenty points against

(50:18):
a bad secondary in that Atlanta team last week, so
support naries don't got to go to a secondary either, right,
we've seen them get lit up by passing offenses. You
could wait and see right, hoping keen Allen then come back.
But I would just grab the seven because I think
a lot of other people will grab it now. I
could see a drop in a six and a half.
Six is a week goes along here, grabbed the seven,

(50:46):
all right? Last game, last game on the board, Commanders
visiting the Eagles. Commanders eleven point dogs. That's that's crazy, really, Yeah,
it is. I I don't know. To me, I look
at this and it's just the whole thought of Heineke
where it's like it's all fun and good. It's been
great when he's done. Chad. We've seen these moments though,

(51:08):
right like to pick six moments with him or just
turning the bowl over in the middle of the field.
He doesn't play well against good defenses, and he's beat
up on the Vikings defense. We don't think it's that
good of a defense. Played the Colts. We don't view
them as that good of a defense. And then they
barely be Green Bay at home. We don't view is
that good of a defense. So this could be the
first Heineke test. Just be careful everyone, I just see

(51:31):
that this would be one of the bigger public dogs
of the week. You know, I love a prime time dog.
I hate prime time dogs of the public loves like
Usually that's a bad sign. So it's early in the
week now, I don't know what the public is gonna
do on this number. I'm just going off a hunch.
I could see them hitting. It's just in the fact
that they've been good, they've been competitive Washington. That d
line they have is for real. Eagles let a lot

(51:51):
of people down last week that bet them right, I
think the only one by twelve, So yeah, big big number.
I kind of view it as a nice spot for
an Eagles team coming off what is it, twelve days
or eleven days of rest because they played on a Thursday.
Now they're playing on Monday. Maybe I'll do my thing,
keep doing the Eagles first half. I mean again, it
was a brutal beat last week, but look of all
the things had to go wrong for them not to

(52:12):
cover that first half, and it takes a lot, clearly
for that to happen. So Eagles, I guess you're right.
Check Like, maybe I can't force you to make this
one of our five yet, but I feel like you'll
agree only if we see that the public keeps coming
in on this Commander side and we keep seeing the
number go up. Because it wasn't ten with the ten
and a half, I'm seeing a couple of books at
eleven now, So yeah, totally. Clearly professionals like the Eagles

(52:34):
as well, um because it's it's again, it's a good
matchup for their defense against a heinekey guy who likes
to turn the ball over. Eagles lead the league and turnover,
so a lot of things to look at in this one.
But as you sit there on Tuesday, yeah, I'm not
gonna blindly bet the Eagles yet, I need I need
to look into this number a little bit more. Our
faves or Bears minus two and a half, Packers plus
five Browns plus three and a half Chargers plus seven

(52:57):
on the runway Jack's plus nine. I to have Texans
plus six and a half, Vikings plus six, Broncos plus three.
I expect we'll get some sharp calls. Oh yeah, these
games shoo. I don't know, man, this might be a
this might be the week to pass. I feel no

(53:17):
knowing that we have to pass for a week. We're
so hot though, it feels like we're holding on so
tight the ball or is the ball gripping us. I
can say you feel that way, as you said here
on Tuesday, but noing you. I feel like by the
time we get the Sunday, like, no fucking way we
passed this week. No way we're fucking passing this week.
Not a chance. This crew that is listening to this

(53:39):
podcast has done an amazing job at keeping the favorites
in the top one of sports podcasts. We appreciate you.
You are so kind to listen to us. We loved
meeting so many of you in Lexington. It was great.
It was fantastic. Yeah, really cool. Any family met man
like everyone we ran into offering to buy drinks. Yeah.

(54:01):
I didn't linger though too long, which is the key
to meeting people like get in, give your five to
ten minutes, like shoot the ship with us, and then
get the funk out. Right are you telling are you
telling our fans you don't want to like, you don't
want to be with the riff raff for too long.
I'm just saying that's the point of view. I'll talk
to anybody for a while. Okay, they're good guy. I'm
one of those if you approach someone, I feel like
you get the five at ten minutes and at that

(54:23):
point you're holding them up from let them go back
around back about their regular life chat. He lives for
this me. I don't. I have no interest in being famous,
but I do love meeting people. Shooting the ship like
that was cool, But um, yeah, it was definitely. It's
definitely a different feeling. Everything you say is a lie, right,
keep sending in the reviews five stars, folks, that's one

(54:46):
of the ways we stay in the top one. That's right, yet,
keep those positive reviews on Apple Podcasts coming. I will
select five reviews next week and we'll give away some prizes.
If you've already love to review, take your wife's phone,
take your friend's phone, steal off phone on the subway,
doesn't matter. Just leave a new review and we'll name

(55:07):
some winners next week. Thanks guys. Feedback As a gift,
download us from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get
your podcasts. For Matt Mitchell, for Simon Hunter, I am
Chad Meman. This has been the favorites from the Volume
podcast Network. Until next time, I Love you,