Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
What's up, guys? How are you happy? Monday? Welcome into
a new episode of the Daily Juice podcast with me
Matt Perrault. You guys can follow me across all of
my socials at Sports Talk Matt, and we are back
after our winning Sunday in a winning week for US,
up nearly four units on the week, so that's a
nice way to head into the Thanksgiving Day holiday season.
(00:39):
We push on the Chiefs in overtime that was somewhat fortuitous.
We got a break there the Cowboys with the outright win,
down twenty one nothing, they rally to win the game,
cover and win outright. Patriots Lions teaser comes in thanks
to an overtime touchdown by the Lions. Patriots survived a
(00:59):
late charged by the Bengals, so we got that right.
The Cardinals covered, but the Bucks got killed thirty four
to seven. Baker Mayfield got hurt. Our bet on the
Bucks to win the division not looking great with Baker
Mayfield maybe missing some time here for Tampa and then
the Raiders under thirty six and a half that comes
in twenty four to ten. The final Ashador Sanders breaks
(01:22):
that streak for rookie quarterbacks starting their first ever game
for the Cleveland Browns being zh to seventeen before yesterday.
He wins now one in seventeen. And the wake of
that is Chip Kelly, the highest paid offensive coordinator in football,
has been fired tonight here in Las Vegas. And that
was a long time coming. I mean, the Raiders offense
(01:45):
was pathetic. They gave up ten sacks two Miles Garrett
and the Browns. Miles Garrett had three himself. They couldn't
do anything ASHTINENTI prop went over for us. We got
that right. We end up going two and one on
our prop bets overall, a five two in one day
for us here with the Daily Juice with picks from yesterday.
So a very good day yesterday and a good run
(02:07):
here as we head into the week. So looking forward
to seeing what's going to happen with everything tonight. So
we have Monday Night football tonight. We have the Niners
hosting the Panthers. We've got two bets in that game.
I want to give you, guys, and then I bet
one hockey play that I want to get into and
I don't normally bet this. I'm going to try to,
(02:30):
you know, kind of thread the needle a little bit
here with what I'm going to do here for the
hockey bet and normally I bet on streaks. I'm actually
going to be betting against a streak, and that's not
something I typically do. But the Niners winning tonight wouldn't
be horrible for us because we have the Niners to
win the division. So let's see if the Niners can
(02:52):
win this, beat the Panthers and keep them a game
back of the Bucks who got beat last night. So
we're hoping that we see all you know, this go
the way we wanted to go. Now, a couple of things.
There is a travel day for me coming today, so
I will be flying out of Vegas, and so I
(03:13):
am doing the Bostonian Versus the Book early. Normally I
do it at one o'clock Eastern. I'm doing it at
noon Eastern time, so that show will air earlier than normal.
So if you watch BVB, know the show is going
to air at noon eastern nine am Pacific time because
i'd get to the airport for my flight, which is
at like one thirty I think my flight is, so
(03:34):
I have to get to the airport. So because of that,
I will tape this and drop it like we normally do.
I will tape Tuesday's podcast on Monday morning, so in
case of line movement or any major news, just be
aware that I'm going to be placing bets on Monday
before I leave Las Vegas for the Tuesday episode of
(03:56):
The Daily Juice. I will then go ahead and drop
that podcast. I'm not sure. Probably, I'll probably have the
betting pros people drop it for me because I'm gonna
be in the air for most of the day, so
I'll probably have them put it out overnight. So just know,
I'll tape it in the morning and then we'll go
back to a normal cadence of morning morning okay morning podcasts.
(04:18):
In fact, you know what, we're gonna tape the podcast
on Tuesday morning. Okay, so no, we're not gonna do that.
Let me correct myself. I apologize. I forgot. We're on
the East Coast, so Tuesday Morning's podcast will be done
in on the East Coast, so it heads up on that.
So there we go. I won't be taping it in
the morning, We'll tape it Tuesday day off, So Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday.
(04:39):
Those five shows, those five daily Juices always. All will
be taped in the morning, okay, dropped Eastern time in
the morning, probably somewhere around like seven eight am Pacific
Eastern time every morning for the Daily Juice, So heads
up on that. I apologize for that. But BBB will
be early on Monday noon Eastern and then Tuesday Wednesday
(04:59):
it'll be one o'clock pm normally normal schedule time off
of at Boston versus the book on YouTube and x
for the show to be shown live for that, So
in case you were watching that, that's going to be
the schedule. I'm traveling long winded, long way of getting
all the way around as to what's talking about what's
happening here for today, let me tell you about our
(05:21):
friends at hard Rock Bet. However, because they are the
sponsor of the Daily Juice podcast, there are awesome things
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(05:43):
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(06:05):
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rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. Let's
talk about this game tonight. Let's start with the first half.
San Francisco laying four up against a Panthers team coming
(06:26):
off of a really big performance last week, big win
over the Falcons. Bryce Young threw for like five thousand yards.
He had his best day as a pro throwing the
football against the Falcons last week. However, the Panthers and
Bryce Young have a really bad history in the first half.
Carolina this year is three to eight ats wise excuse me,
ats wise in the first half. That is the worst
(06:48):
in the NFL. Bryce Young as a starter in his
career is thirteen and twenty five in the first half
ats as a starter. That equal is the worst mark
of any starting quarterback in the NFL. I think this
is going to be a fast start for the forty
nine ers. I think they will have a touchdown or
(07:10):
more lead at the break, and I think they will
look to control this football game pretty early. But I
don't like the second half for the forty nine ers.
I think both teams are going to score. I don't
like this Niner defense for four quarters. I think it
could get tired. There's so many injuries up and down
that defense for the forty nine ers, and I think
(07:31):
we could see a backdoor cover potentially. I don't like
the seven or seven and a half for the forty
nine ers. That worries me. I think there could very
easily be a fourth quarter score that gets us. I
don't want to same game tease this because I'm not
exactly positive that the Panthers don't. You know, I'm not
going to rule them out winning this game. Giving the
way the Niners have been, how banged up they've been
(07:53):
rock Party in Company in primetime. I mean, there's been
some pretty bad numbers here for Kyle Shanahan as six
point or more favorites in night games. Straight up, the
Niners are nine to four, but against the number, they're
four and nine ATS and since Christmas of twenty three,
they are zero to three when Kyle Shanahan is favored
(08:14):
by this much ats wise, So I'm not comfortable here,
just given the history for Kyle Shanahan. I'm just not
comfortable with them in the fourth quarter. I'd rather get
away from it. So I'm gonna go first quarter, sorry,
first half. Rather, I'm going to lay the four points
with the first half for San Francisco. San fran minus
four in the first half up against Carolina to have
(08:35):
a four point or more lead heading into the break
here in the first half. Now, I do have a
full game bet for it, and it's the total of
forty nine and a half. And when you look at
the total for these two teams and how they've been
playing recently, there's been a lot of offense for both
these teams. Defensively not great last week thirty points scored
(08:56):
for the Panthers. The week before went under at home
home against New Orleans. That was the seventeen to seven
snooze fest. Then against Green Bay it went under by
fourteen points because it was forty three. It was a
sixteen to thirteen final. They won the game by three.
On the road against the Packers. But the game against
Buffalo forty seven and a half was the total forty
(09:18):
to nine. They lost. That game went over by a
half one and a half points. But the real key
comes down to San Francisco. Last three games have gone over.
In seven of the last ten games this season for
San Francisco have gone over. In fact, if you go
all the way back to the twenty eighth of September
for San Francisco, we're talking six and two, actually sorry,
(09:42):
six to one and one to the over for San Francisco.
Last week they scored forty one points against Arizona forty
one to twenty two. Game went over by forty eight, sorry,
by fourteen and a half points. Against the Rams in
their last home game, they lost the game forty two
to twenty six. The game had a forty nine and
a half total. This one did does it went over
by eighteen and a half points. And against the Giants
(10:04):
on the road thirty four to twenty four, they had
a forty seven and a half total. Game went over
by ten and a half points. So last three games
have cleared the total by double digits. And I think
the Panthers are going to be able to score on
this Niners defense and vice versa. I expect christ McCaffrey
and Brock Purty to put up numbers now forty one
like they did last week against Arizona. Probably not, but
(10:27):
I do think they score thirty and I do think
they're going to give up twenty. I think it's a
thirty to twenty type final potential, maybe in a thirty
twenty seven type final. Here in this game, I'm gonna
bet the over over forty nine and a half for
one point one unit, so two plays in the NHL, sorry,
in the NFL, sorry for Monday Night Football first half
(10:48):
San Francisco laying four in the first half at MIS
one ten and the over forty nine and a half
for San Francisco in Carolina for the game. Now things,
we have a hockey play that isn't all that normal,
and I'm gonna admit it's not all that normal for
me to go ahead and jump in, but I'm gonna
(11:12):
jump in anyway. The reason is Washington has had eleven
straight games where they've had a goal in the first
ten minutes. But it's really juicy. It's minus one fifty
five to bet the yes, but the no is plus
one twenty and Washington is playing Columbus, who is one
(11:34):
of the worst teams for a first period over and
for a goal in the first ten minutes in the NHL.
We just haven't seen it all that often out of
this team. Now, if you like betting trends like I do,
you would say go ahead and bet on Washington eleven
games in a row, bet the streak. It's too juicy
(11:57):
to bet the streak even with eleven straight. So you
look at Columbus and what they have done for a
goal in the first ten minutes so far this year Columbus,
and you know they're fifty percent twelve of twenty two,
fifty four percent. But only three of the last ten
games for Columbus have gone to a gift a goal
(12:18):
in the first ten minutes, that's thirty percent. A big
reason is Jet grieves. They're starting goaltender. Against the Detroit
Red Wings, he gave up four goals, but he gave
up It was one nothing after the first period, and
Columbus scored in the fourteen minute mark. No gift up.
Against Toronto, no goals were scored at all in the
(12:40):
first period between Columbus and Toronto upan excuse me up.
Against the Montreal canadi Ends, Columbus scored for a gift
at the seven minute mark, so they got a gift there,
So two to one to the no. In the first
three games against the Rangers, there were no goals scored
(13:01):
in the first period, and against Edmonton there was one
goal scored by Columbus that happened in the sixteen minute mark.
Four and one to a no goal in the first
ten minutes to the gift for Jet Greeves. Now Logan
Thompson is supposed to go on the other side, and
I'll admit it can be a little bit hairy with
Logan Thompson on the other side. He's given up four
(13:22):
goals in each of his last two starts five to
three loss to Tampa Bay in which we saw five
goals get scored in the first period. Logan Thompson gave
up four of them, but the first goal of the
game was scored by Washington, so that's a little bit
of a worry Edmonton. There were five goals scored in
the first period there, including three goals was scored in
(13:43):
the first ten minutes of the game for Edmonton and Washington. Yes,
that's really scary. Okay, so we're three to zero with
Logan Thompson in net. I agree. Against Florida, it didn't
get much prettier. He had two goals scored in the
first ten minutes. Okay. So again, as I'm reading these
things off, I understand what this sounds like. So you
(14:04):
don't have to trail this if you don't want to.
Even the game against against the Carolina Hurricanes, one goal
was scored in the six minute mark. Five inning games.
It's been eleven straight five games in a row with
Logan Thompson. It's been eleven straight overall for the Washington Capitals.
But the streak has to end somewhere, and this is
a lot of times what the pros do. The pros
will bet against a streak because of the price. They're
(14:27):
not interested in laying mis one fifty. They want to
take plus one ten plus plus one twenty. So if
it misses, so what it misses. But think about it,
it's one point five units if we miss on the yes,
but it's one unit if we miss on the no.
And if it hits, we win one point two units.
So it's just a price situation, and it has to
(14:52):
miss at some point, right, Columbus is not a team
that has all that many goals in the first ten minutes. Okay,
as I just told you just thirty over the last
ten games, and Jet Greeves is four and one over
his last five games. To the no. The hope is
that Logan Thompson plays well for ten minutes. That's the
hope that Columbus doesn't score. I think if Columbus doesn't score,
(15:13):
I think we're good. I think we're gonna get it.
I think we're gonna wind up cashing the no gift
no goal in the first ten minutes at plus one twenty.
So the play is for today over forty nine and
a half for San Francisco in Carolina for the game
first half forty nine ers laying four at mis won
ten and no goal in the first ten minutes for
(15:33):
Washington and Columbus at plus one twenty. That bet for
one unit. My name is Matt Parole. If you guys
can follow me because all my socials at Sports Talking
Matt every morning. Wherever you guys get your podcasts, it
is the Daily Juice