Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
Good morning, guys.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
How are you welcome in to another episode of the
Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Perrault. You guys can
follow me across all of my socials at Sports Talk Matt.
It is a robust two fifteen Pacific time in the morning.
We have just gotten back from Boston.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
It is late.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
It is five fifteen in the morning for the East
Coast folks. We meaning me, will be up here in
about I don't know, six hours or so as we
get rolling for the live stream, which will be at
nine am Pacific time noon Eastern time with myself and
Pat fitz Morris. We will go through every game with
(00:57):
you guys. We will make plays, prop bets, and more.
I don't know if I'm gonna have prop bets today.
I'm just gonna be honest. I may have one or two,
but it is late. We're gonna get to the picks.
I'm not gonna go really heavily in depth here with
the plays. We'll talk more about them on the live stream.
So if you want more of a breakout and a
breakdown as to why I'm betting when I'm betting today,
(01:19):
I will tell you. Coming up with a live stream
at noon Eastern time. But a winning day yesterday. Alabama
comes in for us, the Moody prop comes in. We
get that, so there's our two wins. Michigan loses badly
in the game. Finally Ohio State gets a w I
was going into that. I was gonna bet Ohio State
and then I changed at the last moment. Should have
(01:40):
taken Ohio State and it would have been a three
and oh day and say it's two and one day,
winning day for us. Need to have a winning Sunday,
to have a winning week. It's in range, but we
need to have it. It's very important. There is a
hard rock bet of the day. We missed on the
last one of these or five and two on the
hard rock bet of the day, so we got one
of those coming at you guys here for today. But
(02:00):
let's start here, okay, with the Jets, and you might go,
what hold on? Okay, let's start with the Jets, and
let's start with the fact that the Jets are playing
a Falcons team being quarterbacked by Kirk Cousins. Do you
guys remember the fading of Kirk Cousins at a favorite.
The Falcons are favored by three over Tyron Taylor and
(02:22):
the Jets falcons on the road outside as favorites.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
This is no bueno. Okay, this is not good in.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
Terms of how Kirk Cousins has played as a favorite
on the road. In particular, after a Kirk Cousins team
wins the next game, they're thirty three forty five to
one against the number. They snapped a five game losing
streak to the Saints last week. Teams. According to the
Action Network, they had this stat over the last twenty years,
(02:53):
Teams that snap a five game losing streak in their
tenth game or later are winning just thirty eight percent
of the games outright the next game. Over the last
five years, they're six and fifteen straight up at eight
eleven and two against the number. Tyrod Taylor, Okay, Tyrod
Taylor is a great quarterback to back. Since the start
(03:14):
of twenty twenty two, Tyrod Taylor is six to zho
to one against the spread in seven starts. Okay, when
his team is under five hundred, like the Jets are,
he's sixteen to five and one ats, including eleven to
two to one against the spread. As an underdog. The
Jets are catching three points here. I'm not backing an
(03:34):
outdoor team, a dome team going outdoors in late November.
Speaker 1 (03:39):
Absolutely not give me the Jets.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
We're taking the Jets at plus three here for one
point one units. There's a theme to this card. By
the way, just FYI, let's go to Sunday night. Let's
go to the game in prime time between the bo
Nicks led Broncos and Jayden Daniels in the Washington command
Here's the thing. When it's Daniels, you bet on the Commanders.
(04:05):
When it's not, you fade them. B Nicks on the
road is a fade. He's two and three against the
spread on the road. Sorry, at home, he's great, six
and oh straight up three and three against the number.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
But uh huh? Do not like bon Nicks on the road.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
The Broncos have trailed in all their games this year
at some point, and yet they're nine to two.
Speaker 1 (04:28):
They're not blowing people out. They're playing with.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
Fire in a lot of ways, and this might be
not great. Broncos and Commanders are both coming off bys.
I think you probably see a low.
Speaker 1 (04:40):
Scoring game, and in low scoring games, I want points.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
Give me the dog. I'm taking the six and a half.
Gimme Washington plus six and a half. Here, Washington plus
six and a half. Hopefully you guys get a seven.
We're taking Washington plus the points here at home against
bo Nicks on Sunday night football against the Broncos.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Let's stay in that late window.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
But in the afternoon four to twenty five Eastern time,
the Raiders against Justin Herbert. All the numbers say bet
the Chargers. I'm betting the Raiders. Why well, ESBN uncovered
that Chip Kelly was calling plays that didn't exist, that
didn't exist, tom Brady fired him personally. Tom Brady is
looking to burn this thing to the ground. He said,
(05:25):
if we're not we have to, we'll burn it all
the way to the ground and we'll start completely over.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
They might need they might need to do that.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
However, it is Jim Harbaugh against Pete Carroll in a
game in which Pete Carroll might be coaching for his job.
Tom Brady might be sending a little message here to
seventy three year old Pete and saying, Hey, if you
want to be here, these guys got to perform, you
gotta play well. Justin Herbert off of a bye. These
(05:53):
are all bad. Okay, He's won four games in a
row the next week after a bye.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
But ten points is ten points is big.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
However, Justin Herbert against the AFC West has dominated twenty
nine to one against the spread eight to zho to
one over his last nine starts against the AFC West.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
That's not good. Okay.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
Gino Smith has been a disaster, absolute disaster. But I
think with the Raiders, Okay, after firing Chip Kelly in
a divisional game catching ten points, the Raiders went to
Denver and they were competent when they were big dogs.
I think the same thing's gonna happen here. Raiders on
the road as big dogs. I think they are going
(06:34):
to be a competent team here.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
I think they have a shot to cover, not to win,
to cover, lose the game by seven, lose the game
by eight. Maybe it's a backdoor play, but I think
we have a chance here. With Pete Carroll and Jim
Harbaugh and their rivalry, Pete Carroll is a dog against
Jim Harbaugh has been disastrous and Jim Harball against the
number this year has been tremendous. Okay, Raiders are gonna
(06:58):
have a big problem with the pass rush here. For
the Chargers and the Chargers defense. There's all sorts of
negative things. This is as much of a gut play
as anything here. But I think in the week a
dead cat bounce after firing Chip Kelly, I think the
whole team's gonna play with their hair on fire. And frankly,
it's a home game. Okay, it's a home game. Chargers
(07:19):
don't have fans the Raiders. When they play in LA
against the Chargers, that stadium will be blacked out. Okay,
that's gonna be almost like a home game for the Raiders.
I'm taking the points. Give me the Raiders plus ten
for one point one units. Now, teaser, let's talk about
the Houston Texans against the Colts. This number has crashed, Okay,
(07:40):
it just comes straight down. And the reason is the
Texans have won three straight games against the Colts. It's
the Texans first three game win streak against Indy since
going back to twenty fifteen to twenty sixteen. They have
never beaten them four straight times. However, Texans started their
franchise history oh to thirteen on the road at Indy
and win save their life. But Daniel Jones played in
(08:03):
New York for six seasons. In that time, he was
five and nine as a favorite. With the Colts, He's
four and three as a favorite. Texans are on extended
rest here and they have a shot at winning this game.
It's a monster game. Their defense has to step up.
It looks like CJ. Stroud is going to play in
(08:24):
this game. That's why the numbers come straight down here,
and I'm gonna tease it up. I'm gonna go one
leg and give the Texans nine points here to go
from three and a half to go up to nine,
or from three up to nine here, cross that seven,
get over close to ten points. You want to do
a seven point taser, you can do that as well.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
Get to ten.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
I don't mind that at all. You know, Texans have
the Chiefs on dex sins twenty twenty. Teams with Casey
on the horizon are sixty five forty and one ats
maybe even to cover the three. But to me, I mean, look,
I think this is going to be a lot of
fun to see how these two teams play, because I
don't think anybody really wants to play the Colts or
(09:07):
the Texans in the playoffs, to be quite honest.
Speaker 1 (09:09):
But CJ.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
Stroud being back as big. First leg of the teaser
is Houston plus nine and the other side we're going
to the Browns and the Browns game is about weather. Okay,
this is a wind game. We're talking twenty mile prior
sustained wins up to thirty thirty five mile prior win. Gus,
this is gonna be a windy game. Brock Purdy in
(09:32):
the rain and in the wind in Cleveland, has not
played well. Scored seventeen points his last time in Cleveland.
They lost on the road. Sam Fran has lost four
straight trips to Cleveland. Their last win in Cleveland was
in nineteen eighty four. Nineteen eighty four. How about this number?
Since twenty twenty, the Browns are thirteen and five straight
(09:52):
up at home against teams above five hundred.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
That is unbelievable. The Browns when they're away from home
again teams.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
From five hundred or who are above five hundred or
five and eighteen straight up at home.
Speaker 1 (10:06):
Different story.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
It's about Miles Garrett, It's about that defense, and it's
about keeping Shador Sanders away from the interceptions. Brock Purty
threw three picks last week. Brock Purdy didn't look good
brock Purty's gonna have a problem with this. Cleveland defense
didn't like San frank last week. The way they played,
they were fortunate to get w I got Miles Garrett,
(10:27):
I got this defense, I got wins, I got Weather.
Here n not good, Okay, the Browns are This is
a one bad stat The Browns are coming up a
straight off winning over the Raiders.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
Double digit win.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
Since the start of last year, Cleveland is zero to
five ats after a win.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
Okay, so maybe they don't cover.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
But let's tease it, and let's give them eleven and
a half Houston plus nine Browns plus eleven and a
half Miles one twenty five teaser.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
There's your teaser of the week.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
So the theme is points, points, points, points and points.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
Why why am I all about points?
Speaker 2 (11:01):
Well, the reason why I'm all about points is because
what has happened here in the NFL.
Speaker 1 (11:06):
We've seen a big turn here. Okay.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
In the first eight weeks of the season, Favorites went
thirty nine in twenty in the early one PM window,
going over five hundred in all eight weeks, including forty
two and seventeen in the first half in the early window.
Since Week nine, favorites are seven twenty one in one
in the early window in six and twenty three against
(11:31):
the first half spread.
Speaker 1 (11:32):
Okay, they're just not covering.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Teams scoring twenty four points or more are one to
eighteen and fifty three against the Sea against the spread.
That would be the second lowest mark for a full
year since nineteen ninety. The lowest was the COVID year
back in twenty twenty at sixty seven percent. Okay, so
this is a very odd year. Not a lot of
(11:56):
offense going on here. That's better for the dogs closer
games big spreads. Teams are having a hard time covering
those big spreads. So first we're going Jets plus three,
Raiders plus ten, Washington plus six and a half, and
the teaser of Houston and the Browns Houston plus nine
and the Browns at plus one fifteen. Now, before I
(12:17):
give you the hard rock play of the day, let
me remind you about what you guys can get with
hard rock bet.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
It is a big time of the year.
Speaker 2 (12:27):
It's a big game day, every day, Pro football, college football, NBA,
college hoops, and more all happening right now. They still
have the offer bet five bucks. You win, you get
the winnings plus one fifty in extra bonus bets as well.
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New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, and Colorado. Hard Rock
(12:49):
Bet offers promos every single day. Download the hard Rock
Bet app and make your first deposit. Today I mentioned
whether in Cleveland, what are we betting with the Oh,
we're betting the under, of course, hard Rock Bet of
the day Browns and the San fran forty nine ers
under thirty six at minus one ten. I don't think
(13:10):
Shador Sanders scores a ton. We bet the under last
week it hit for the Browns and the Raiders. Now
the Browns are at home, and now the Browns are
in weather, wind, rain, nastiness in Cleveland, Midwest have been
dealing with all wintery mix in the wind whipping off
the lakes under thirty six.
Speaker 1 (13:28):
I don't care about Christian McCaffrey.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
I don't think he has a big game here against
this great Browns defense, and I think Miles Garrett is
going to really make life difficult on this offense for
the forty nine Ers on the flip side, Shador Sanders
against Kyle Shanahan against a very good defensive coordinator. I'm
not exactly dumping up and down about Shud or Sanders
in this game here today, but I do think they
play close to the vest low scoring game Browns plus
(13:53):
eleven and a half on the teaser and the under
thirty six for our hard rock bet of the Day,
I will talk to you guys come up at noon
Eastern time nine am Pacific time with Pat fitz Morris
for our live stream on the Betting Pros YouTube channel.
Speaker 1 (14:07):
My name is Matt Perraultz will talk to you later today,
like in six hours from now.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Wherever you guys get your podcast whenever you guys get
your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
It is the Daily Juice.