Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
What's up, guys? How are you happy? Sunday?
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Welcome into a new episode of the Daily Juice podcast.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
My name is Matt Perolt.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
You guys can follow me across all of my socials
at sports talking Matt to Unfortunately, I did not turn
things around yesterday. Hopefully you took my advice and you
faded the plays. If you did, you went two and
one instead I went one and two. The Navy team
totally got to seventeen. Navy did not get over twenty
one and a half points. That was a frustrating game
for me. The under hit after all that, for all
(00:43):
the pro money that came in on the over, the
under for Army Navy once again, rinse and repeat. Army
Navy unders cashes the under for the Boise State and
the Washington game came through pretty easily. Boise scored three points,
like I thought, the easy cover for Washington laying nine,
nine and a half or ten points. But you see,
Davis got throttled by Oregon as the first win and
(01:07):
cover in six games for Oregon.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
Dane Altman's team Little Get Right Spot.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
A couple players wanted up playing for Oregon that we
thought might not play, but they killed you, see Davis,
So one in two day for us down one point
three units. I want tell you quick second to check
in on our NFL futures that we have currently.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
There's a bunch of them, and I like.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
To do this kind of like like because in the
month of November with the college football bets that cashed
for us, like.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
We had a really not a great month. We were
down for the month.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
But I went back and took a look at if
it wasn't for the college future bets coming through and
how profitable those were in the futures market, we would
have had a horrific month of November. But because we
had that, it was a losing month, it was nowhere
near what it could have been from a losing month perspective.
So these won't cash till January at most books, at
least my books here in Vegas, but I thought i'd
(01:58):
run down a couple of them. The Bucks to win
the South at plus one ten is still very much alive,
so hopefully we'll get that. Obviously, a big game coming
up here for the Panthers today, in a big game
next week against the Panthers for the Bucks, Bijon Robinson
to go over twelve hundred yards rushing for the Falcons.
He's currently with and seventy four, so as long as
(02:20):
he doesn't get hurt next week, he will go over that.
So that bet will cash. The forty nine Ers to
win the West is probably dead. That probably is not
going to hit. The Giants to go under five and
a half wins. The Giants need one more loss and
that bet will cash. The Broncos to go over nine
and a half wins, that bet has already cashed because
(02:41):
they have eleven and asking genty to go over seven
and a half rushing touchdowns. I did not calibrate the
number of times he was going to catch touchdowns. He
has four rushing touchdowns, but he's got four receiving touchdowns.
He's already gone over, but it was rushing, not total touchdowns.
I didn't think he'd be that heavily involved in the
(03:02):
passing attack the way he has. I thought they'd just
run the football. But because they've used him such a
weird way with the Raiders this year, he's been much
more of a weapon catching the football, which was not
his strong suit coming out of college. That was the
knock on him. Instead, he has four receiving touchdowns. With
four rushing touchdowns four games to go, he could get
four more rushing touchdowns, but I don't know that BET's
(03:24):
going to be a little bit on the more difficult
time to cash, So we'll see how it all plays out.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
But that's where we are currently.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
For our future wagers, Broncos Giants should come in the
Cowboys at plus six fifty to win the East. The
thing I skipped over that, Sorry, that's the other one.
That one's alive, but I don't know if that one's
going to cash it on. So that's the fingers crossed.
The Eagles would need to lose today to the Raiders,
which I don't believe is going to happen for that
to come on. In a reminder, if you guys have
(03:54):
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(04:16):
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bettingpros dot com slash Premium. So it's a Sunday, that
means we have a live stream coming at you at
noon Eastern time, nine am Pacific time. It's myself in
South Wilcock coming at you for an hour breaking down
(04:37):
every game. And there's a big ones to get into.
And let's start with the Philip Rivers game because he
is back as the starting quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts.
Like we thought, this does not take a big handicap.
Team total is fourteen and a half here. I just
don't think they're going to score Indy. I just think
they're going to be going up against a defense that's
(04:58):
going to make it really, really difficult on them. Seattle
when they face the Vikings in their last game at home,
it was twenty six nothing for Seattle. They're four and
two at home the Seahawks. But in their last two
home games, they played the Vikings and they shut them
out twenty six nothing. And they played the Cardinals and
(05:19):
they beat them forty four to twenty two. Now here
comes Philip Rivers. I mean, his first start in five years.
He now has the clock restarted for five more years
for the Hall of Fame.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
He's forty four years old.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
He is a father, he is a grandfather, and he
does not look like he is in football shape. Okay,
he's been coaching high school football. Just because you know
the offense doesn't mean you go and hire a guy
and put him out there. Shane Steiken in company. Okay,
maybe you're going to be seen as this brilliant person,
and maybe it is a Disney movie, and maybe we
(05:57):
are going to sit back and go, oh my gosh,
that's incredible. Maybe the defense will play really well. But
I think the Seahawks are the best or the second
best team in the NFL, and Mike McDonald has been
just completely brutalizing and I mean brutalizing opponents. Mike McDonald
is a guy that if you look at the way
(06:19):
his teams have been playing, I mean it's not just
Sam Donald. I mean it's it's on the East Coast.
They're better on the East Coast. I'm serious. They're not
great when they play at home for whatever reason, but
this is Shane Steichen, who has not done well coming
off games against the AFC South. They're five and eight
(06:40):
ATS in games coming off of AFC South games, which
they are after the loss last week. They're owing five
straight up and own five against the spread in the
last five games in that spot after they play somebody
in their division. But the best stat of all is
Sam Donald has been a favorite of six points or
more eleven times as a starter in the NFL. Is
eleven and zero straight up, and he's nine to two
(07:02):
ATS in those games. I think everybody is going to
be teasing this game, but I'm not going to tease it.
I'm just going to come right out and play it.
I'm going to lay it thirteen and a half Seahawks
with a big win, much like the last two home games.
Make it three Seahawks. I'll lay the big number with
Seattle against a forty four year old quarterback who hasn't
played in the NFL in five years. You could mimic
(07:24):
the speed all you want, but shows you how bad
things are in Indianapolis right now. I know they have
Jonathan Taylor, but I don't think this is a good spot.
I don't think this is a good place to start
your career, to come back to play against arguably the
number one defense in football, Seattle minus thirteen and a half.
You can play the team total under if you want to.
(07:44):
For the Colts, I don't think they score more than
maybe thirteen points, maybe a touchdown, two field goals. Maybe
so under on their team total of fourteen and a half.
Let's go to Sunday Night football and the Vikings. Sorry
in the Yeah, the Vikings on the road against Dak
Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas Cowboys. Look, team total
(08:07):
for Dallas is twenty seven and a half. I really
do think it's a good bet they are eleven and
two to the team total over Dallas. But the number
is around forty seven and a half. And I'm a
little bit on the hesitant side. I've done really poorly
recently with totals, and in team totals we missed yesterday
with Navy. There's just something like there's just a little
(08:29):
bit of a birdie going off my head, going like
that team total might not be hit by the Dallas
Cowboys in this game, but they could cover the five
and a half points the Cowboys have been favored in
six games this year.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
They're two and.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
Four ATS in those games. After losing as an underdog
last week, Dallas is five and two against the spread
as a dog. They do much better when they are
a dog than they are favored. However, Kevin O'Connell, this
has just been bad right now. In primetime away from home,
(09:03):
Kevin O'Connell and the Vikings are one in seven straight
up Dak Prescott in primetime with extra rest is nineteen
and nine ats. The Cowboys are a team that I
think they know, after everything that happens during the day,
they're going to see the Eagles win against the Raiders.
(09:23):
I think they know they've got to get a chance
to keep themselves in the competition here by winning. I
don't like JJ McCarthy, I don't like this offense. I'm
gonna stay away him totals in this game, and I'm
just gonna lay the five and a half Dallas minus
five and a half on Sunday Night Football up against
the Minnesota Vikings.
Speaker 1 (09:42):
Two teasers this week.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
I have a favorite teaser and a dog teaser to
give you guys. The Jaguars are playing the Jets. The
Jets are an absolute mess. Brady Cook is playing quarterback
for the Jets. Jacksonville hasn't closed as a double digit
favorite ever Trevor Lawrence's career, and they are going to
be thirteen and a half point favorites or fourteen point
(10:04):
favorites here with this huge win against the Colts last
week for the Jags. The Jags have been very profitable
ATS off of a win eighteen and thirteen ATS off
a win nine to four ATS when that win is
by ten points or more, and the Jaguars have been
really good defensively. You cannot run on these guys, which
(10:25):
you usually assume that the Jets are going to want
to try to run on these guys, and I don't
think they're going to be able to do that.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
I like what the Jags have looked like. I do
not like the Jets.
Speaker 2 (10:35):
They were eliminated last week and now they got Brady Cook.
It's not Tyrod Taylor. They're on the road and in
the state of Florida. The New York Jets have been
an absolute dumpster fire in the state of Florida. They
cannot win in the state of Florida. They are one
in fourteen straight up against teams from Florida when they
(10:56):
play in Florida. I'll tease it down. Let's go seven
and a half Jaguars seven and a half, and on
the other side of the teaser, we'll go to the Eagles,
who are massive favorites at home against the Raiders who
are starting Kenny Pickett. I don't need to say much
more than that they're starting Kenny Pickett, or Kenny two
gloves as I call him, in the cold, in the weather,
(11:20):
on the road at the Link with a pissed off
Eagles team after what happened. Look, I would love nothing
more than see the Eagles lose this game outright in
the Raiders to shock the world. It would be great
for the ticket for the Cowboys. If that were to happen.
It would open the door for the Cowboys that plus
six to fifty ticket to cash on the Cowboys to
win the division.
Speaker 1 (11:40):
It would be tremendous.
Speaker 2 (11:41):
Jalen Hurts at home in Philadelphia is thirty and five
straight up as a favorite. I mean, he's just almost automatic.
The Raiders offensively, they are a mess. The first half
team total. By the way, the Raiders are two ten
and one to their first half team total that's the
second worst, just one of the Ravens in the NFL.
In Pete Carroll's last two seasons with the Raiders and
(12:03):
the Seahawks, his teams are eleven and nineteen to their
team total over, so they're nineteen eleven to the under.
This offense is not going to score against the Eagles.
This game is going to get away from the Raiders.
But I'll tease it down just in case, and We'll
go ahead and go. Jaguars minus seven and a half,
Eagles minus six for one point two five units and
(12:27):
the dog teaser.
Speaker 1 (12:28):
Patriots, Broncos.
Speaker 2 (12:31):
Look, the world's on the Bills, the pros are on
the Bills, the publics on the Bills. It's time for
the Patriots to lose, right ten straight games. Josh Allen's
going to put the superman KP on and he just
did it against the Bengals. The Bills were lucky to
beat the Bengals. Joe Burrow had to be picked off
two times in the fourth quarter and blow a ten
(12:52):
point lead for the Bills to win that game. Now,
the retort is the Patriots won the first matchup twenty
three to twenty with three turnovers from the Bills and
the Patch only won the game by three points. Yep,
I would agree, But the Patriots are off a bye.
The Patriots have been rolling, and they're at home here,
and it's going to be cold. When it's cold and
(13:13):
the Patriots are at home, history has been very kind
to New England. This is Mike Rabel. This is a
Patriot team that's playing for the AFC East. If they
win this game, it's a hat and T shirt game.
Speaker 1 (13:28):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
Home teams off of by facing a team not off
of a bye are six and three straight up this season. Okay,
this is a rivalry. It comes down to Josh Allen
in Drake May as to who makes more plays. But
on the road, Josh Allen this year is three and three.
(13:49):
At home, they're six and one. The one loss was
to the Patriots. Okay, Josh Allen in November or later
is just five and twelve twelve as a dog on
the road. Their favored right now, going five hundred straight
up or worse in each of his last two seasons
in the NFL. They're obviously favored here in this one.
(14:11):
Kind of small, but they are favored. If that doesn't
flip by kickoff we'll see, but there's a lot of
people who have strong opinions about holding to the Patriots number.
I'm gonna tease it up. Let's take them one and
a half. Tease it up to seven and a half.
And it's the same conversation here with the Broncos, who
are at home catching one and a half. They were
catching up highs two and a half at one point.
(14:32):
There's a ton of money coming in here on the Broncos,
professional money, public money, the books very well will need
the Packers to win this game. I'm just going to
tease it up to seven and a half. Packers can
win the game by three or seven, and that's fine
by me. Matt Lafleur in the month of December has
been absolute money straight up as a head coach. He's
(14:53):
been someone you really want to bet on and bo nix.
As a home favorite, he's eight and three ats. He's
not a home favorite, but he's playing at home here
up against a Packers team that are twelve and one
straight up and eleven and eleven and two ats in
the last thirteen meetings against the Bears. In their game
following the win over Chicago, Matt Lafleur is ten and
(15:17):
two ATS, So win the game by three, that's fine,
but I'm gonna tease the Broncos up to seven and
a half. Patriots Broncos six point teaser to tease both
those teams up. Matt Lafleur in December is now twenty
one and four straight up as a head coach, fourteen
ten and one against the spread, which is really impressive
(15:39):
if you stop and think about that. That's the floor
is only Phase two teams on a six or more
game winning streak. With Green Bay, he lost both the
games twenty twenty four against the Lions twenty twenty four
at the Vikings. We're gonna go ahead and take the
Patriots plus seven and a half and the Broncos plus
seven and a half. So those are the plays for
Sunday thirteen and a half for Seattle Cowboys minus five
(16:03):
and a half, Jaguars Eagles the favorite teaser Patriots Broncos
the dog teaser. Now that takes us to the hard
rock bet of the day. Where are we going? We're
going to the biggest game of the night, I think
in the afternoon time zone Lions at the Rams. The
(16:24):
Lions with Dan Campbell and Jared Goff. As an underdog
against any opponent, they are twenty nine and thirteen ATS.
Speaker 1 (16:35):
When they are the.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
Dog at close, they're twenty three in thirteen ats. As
an underdog of four points or more, Campbell and Goff
are seventeen and three ATS, including seventeen and five when
they're a dog of over three points. Sean McVay is
great in the month of December and John McVay is
sixteen and three ats in December since the start of
(17:00):
twenty twenty one. However, the Lions need this game, their
back to against the wall. They have got to get
a w. Everyone's on the Rams. The Lions are going
to be a need for the book. I think you're
on the book side when you take the Lions. I
think that the Rams could win the game. I just
think six points is too many points here. Close game,
(17:23):
one possession one way or the other. But I wouldn't
mind a money line play. You want to sprinkle money
line for the Lions, go right ahead. I think it's there.
The Rams at home laying over a field goal against
the quality team not good seven eleven and one ATS,
including six and nine against the spread when favored by
over that a field goal, kind of like Baker Mayfield right.
(17:46):
The Rams as favorites, they don't do so hot. We're
taking the Lions plus six for the hard Rock bet
of the day at minus one ten for one point
one units. Our record is now seven and three ats sorry,
seven and three overall for the hard Rock bet of
the Day Lions plus six. If you guys have not
(18:07):
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app and make your first deposit to Day So. I
will talk to you on the live stream for player
props Seth and I will go you have you at
noon Eastern time nine am Pacific time on the Betting
Pros YouTube channel. We will go live and break down
every game and watch the line movement here once again,
the play is for today Seattle laying thirteen and a half,
(19:12):
Cowboys laying five and a half, Jaguars Eagles teaser, Patriots
Broncos teaser, and the hard rock play of the day
is the Lions plus six up against the Rams. My
name is Matt Parol, you guys and following me across
all my socials at Sports Talk Matt every morning wherever
you guys get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (19:27):
It is the Daily Juice