November 20, 2025 • 19 mins
A flat 2-2 night for host Matt Perrault takes him into Thursday looking to close the week out strong. Matt has 3 bets for today and 1 for Sunday on the latest episode of the Daily Juice presented by Hard Rock Bet.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
What's up, guys, Happy Thursday.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Welcome into another episode of the Daily Juice podcast with
me and Matt Parotz. You guys can follow me across
all of my socials at Sports Talk Matt, and we're back.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
After a flat day, we go two and two.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
The only college basketball bets I have gotten right here
on the Daily Juice are both involving the Creighton Blue.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
Jays, which is not a surprise.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Okay, it's the program I know the best and I'm
the closest to It was the right play because they
scored twenty eight points in the second half. They didn't cover.
They only scored seventy five points and the second half.
I was worried about the second half and it did
not go well for the Jays. They did win, but
move boy, so team total, they scored forty seven points
in the first half.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
We got that right.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
We got the Bruins and the Ducks that game again
and flew over first period three goals. That was a
good bet of the day. The over for CMU and
k State did not come in. That fell forty four
too long. That first drive for Central Michigan took up
the entire first quarter. That kind of killed the ability
for an extra possession there to have that game go over,
(01:19):
and then Yukon was trailing at the break, they lose
the game outright to Arizona. Arizona's got the best resume
of anybody in college basketball right now, and I'm done
fading Arizona. I mean, they are just really, really good
right now. The peat kid is tremendous. They're tough, they rebound,
they're well coached, and they walked into Yukon and snapped
(01:42):
their long non conference home winning streak tonight with a big,
big win for Arizona. So I'm done Finn the Wildcats.
They right now they look like the best team in America. Now,
it's early, it's November, but that was pretty impressive. So
two and two night for us. We go down one
point two units on the day. Now, couple things, so
(02:07):
today being a Thursday, it's obviously an NFL day for us,
and we're obviously going to get into a bunch of
things football related with the Bills on the road here tonight.
And look, Buffalo is going to be I think by
the time this game kicks off, it's probably gonna be
somewhere around seven. I mean, right now, that number is
(02:28):
six or six and a half for the Bills on
the road, and I think you're going to see quite
a bit of money come in on Buffalo late. And
I don't think that's really the wrong the wrong play
to come in on Buffalo, but I think you are
going to have to take a look at what's happening
here for this game on Thursday. And if you are
interested in taking a look at what's going to happen,
(02:50):
you guys can go to our friends at hard Rock
Bed to see what they've got available. They are the
presenting sponsor of this podcast. It is Thursday night. So
you have football, you have college football, you have the NBA,
you have the NHL. If you guys have not used
the first bet option, you can do so you bet
five dollars. If you win, you get your winnings, plus
(03:12):
they'll give you one hundred and fifty dollars in extra
bonus bets. But the hard Rock Bet app also has
the Stats Hub, which is check full of trends, streaks,
and stats to help you make better bets. The hard
Rock Bet sports book app is the only legal sports
book in Florida, but it's also.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
Legal and live in Arizona, Ohio, New.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, and Colorado coming soon more states.
Speaker 1 (03:35):
Plus.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day, so
whether you're listening or just open up the app, check
out what they've got any day of the week. Download
the hard rock Bet app and make your first deposit
to day.
Speaker 3 (03:49):
Payable and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by
the Seminole Tribe of Florida. In Florida, offered by the
Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
In other states.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
Must be twenty one and physically president Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana,
New Jersey, Ohio, ten your Virginia to play. Terms and
conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight
eight eight Admit it in Indiana. If you are somebody
you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call
one eight hundred and nine with it. Gambling problem called
one hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
Okay, let's talk about what to do with this game.
So the Bills and the Texans Buffalo the numbers are
pretty impressive. Okay, if you look at just the overall
trends for the Bills in this game, namely Josh Allen.
When Josh Allen faces a top defense, one that's allowing
less than twenty points per game, it's happened twenty nine time.
(04:35):
This will be the thirtieth time in his career this
will happen. Josh Allen is twenty four and five straight up,
twenty three to five and one against the number, and
when your opponent is over five hundred straight up, he's
seventeen to four and one against the spread.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
I don't want to play around with the number here.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
I just went and found six and I pulled it
down to the Bills pick.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
So what do we do with the total?
Speaker 2 (04:58):
We're going to go from forty five three and a
half up to forty nine and a half. These two
teams played last year in Houston. He was twenty three
to twenty.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
CJ. Stroud played in that game. This will not be
c J. Stroud.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
This will be Davis Mills starting again at quarterback for
the Houston Texans. But historically speaking, over the last nine matchups,
the under is seven and two for Houston and Buffalo
this year, the Texans are are six three and one
to the under and the.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Bills are five and five, so they're flat.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
I just don't think with Davis Mills, we're gonna see
a whole lot of offense here. I mean, last week
you saw sixteen points being scored by the Texans. The
week prior, they scored thirty six up against Jacksonville.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
That was that crazy ending.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
And think it had more to do with you Jacksonville
and the way they played and let up in the
fourth quarter. And frankly, twenty nine points on that Texans
defense is pretty rare for what they normally give up.
I don't think the Bills are going to score thirty tonight.
I think they're going to be held somewhere in the twenties.
And I don't think we're gonna see a whole lot
of points being scored by the Houston Texans. It's Thursday night,
(06:10):
it's a short week oftentimes that can be tough. The
Bills have also dropped five straight games outright in Houston. Okay,
the last time they won was in two thousand and six.
Josh Allen has started three of the matchups, and the
Bills have scored twenty points or fewer in every single
one of them. So if you want to play just
(06:31):
straight under, you can do that. But forty three and
a half is pretty darn low. Okay, So this is
the issue. And Houston is twenty two to ten to
the under at home in games in which CJ. Stroud
does not start. Okay, So like that's the Houston is
(06:52):
an under team. They're zero and two straight up and
oh and two against the spread where they're at home.
As a team team here, I just think this is
another game in which we go under. But I think
we tease up to forty nine and a half to
be safe and take the Bills down to a pick.
Bills win the game, and we see a under forty
(07:13):
nine and a half from minus one twenty five. If
you just strictly want to bet the game as the under,
I think you can just straight up bet the under
on the game today. I think that's a fine play
to make as well. Bills pick under forty nine and
a half. Same game teaser at minus one twenty five.
You may need to all spread and all total this
game to get to the minus one twenty five at
(07:33):
your particular book, but shop around and find the best
value there. But we're going with the Bills to win
the game, and we're taking a under forty nine and
a half here for a same game teaser. We've not
done one of these in a while, but I think
it's the best way to approach this game, just because
the Bills have performed so poorly. If they cover, it'll
be somewhat of a surprise given their inability to move
(07:56):
the football on the road at Houston with this defense
being very, very good. Again, the Bills are zero to
five in their last five games at Houston. Now, there
is one prop bet that the prop bet cheat sheet likes,
and it's going to the Texans Christian Kirk, who is
right now being projected to have two catches on the
game by the prop bet cheat sheet, a sixty three
(08:18):
percent cover probability, a plus twenty one expected value play
in a five star bet. Now, this is the only
five star bet as at this point in the time
of taping. This is the only five star bet that
the bet cheat sheet likes. Now as we get to
the day of there may be other bets to pop up,
and we'll see how Christian Kirk's numbers change. If you
guys wake up and the prop bet cheat sheet doesn't
(08:38):
like this, It's okay, I've already bet it because I
think it's possible that Christian Kirk gets involved. He has
only had one catch the last two games, but he
was targeted four times in the game against Tennessee, and
I think they'll look to target him again here in
the screen game with Davis Mills. So I think Christian
Kirk has a decent game. He had four catches against
(08:59):
deb and he had four catches against Baltimore, and now
that was with CD Stroud, but he was utilized before
the injury. I think they'll look to get him back
involved again. He was targeted four times last week, three
times the week before. He makes two of the catches
bubble screens and quick passes and slants. He makes two
catches and we go over. Prop pet cheat sheet likes
(09:22):
this as a five star play and it's cheap. It's
only minus one oh eight. I'm gonna jump in. I'm
gonna trail it. Let's go here with the prop pet
cheat sheet and we're gonna go on over one and
a half receptions for Christian Kirk at minus one oh
eight for one point zero eight units. One more bet
for today and then I'll give you our first play
(09:42):
coming up for Sunday here because I want the number.
The number is important to me because I think the
number is going to move. Let's talk hockey Dallas and Vancouver.
The total is six. It's a little juicy minus one
twenty from a total perspective, but it's Dallas and Vancouver.
We've been betting Vancouver over because Vancouver is sixteen to
(10:05):
four and one this year to the over. Now the
Maple leafs that trend has sort of shifted. But Vancouver
is ten and zero to the over in their last
ten games, where we're just gonna bet this until we lose. Like,
I just think you have to keep on playing Vancouver
overs when it's six. In particular, Vancouver's at home. Vancouver
(10:28):
at home is eight and one over there over the
nine games they've played at home this season, eight and one.
They're playing Dallas. Now, Dallas hasn't been a great over team,
but they're five and four on the road to the
over over the last five games for Dallas, they're three
and two to the over. Again, this does not matter
as to who's playing in net. These games have just
(10:50):
been very high scoring. Again, if you want to come
in and take a look at, you know, betting on
a gift goal in the first ten minutes, If you
want to bet on a first period over, you can
do that as well. Vancouver has been somewhat profitable. A
little surprising how they've not been as profitable as you
would think given how many times their games have gone over.
(11:11):
But Vancouver on the year for a gift is now,
let's see, whereas Vancouver, it's not where you'd expect it
to be. Dallas is eleven and eighteen eleven out of
eighteen games, sixty one point one percent to a gift
goal in the first ten minutes. Vancouver is fifty percent.
Ten of twenty. They are nine of twenty for a
(11:33):
first period over. The difference is Vancouver for a second
period over. Fourteen of their twenty games have gone to
a second period over. That's seventy percent of the time.
And Vancouver has been just again, they've been giving up
goals a ton here, scoring a bunch in the first
period and giving up a bunch of goals in the
first period, but also just overall, they've scored fourteen goals
(11:56):
in the first period so far, they've given up eighteen
goals in the first period. They've scored twenty two goals
in the second period, while Vancouver has given up eighteen
goals in the second period and then third period, they've
given up a bunch of goals as well, thirty one
third period goals. That is number one in the NHL.
(12:16):
So that's how these games are really going over. You
don't need to bet the first period the gift. You
don't want to a first period over, I haven't. Let's
just bet the game over here for the Vancouver Canucks
and the Dallas Stars. We're going over six for one
point two units. Now, there is a bet I want
to give you guys here on a Thursday for Sunday.
(12:38):
I want Kansas City minus three Circa Sports. If you
have Circa in your state, you can find three minus
one twenty for the Chiefs at home against the Colts.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
So here's the rationale for this bet and why I'm
betting it now and why I want three. The KSE
Chiefs have to win this game. What's interesting is that
Patrick Mahomes has not played well against Indianapolis in his career.
He's one in two straight up in one and two
against the number. Against the Colts, he's lost their last
(13:12):
two games, both straight up and against the spread, but
they came back in twenty twenty two and twenty nineteen. Okay,
of the teams in the NFL, the only ones that
Patrick Mahomes is under five hundred Indianapolis and Philadelphia.
Speaker 1 (13:28):
That's it.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
The Colts are off of a bye. Nine teams have
had a bye week before facing the Chiefs and Mahomes.
Those teams are six and three against the number. You
would expect it right extra time to prepare. They've covered
by over five points. When those teams are underdogs against
Kansas City, they are six and one against the spread,
the only loss coming from the forty nine ers in
(13:50):
the Super Bowl back in twenty twenty. To give you
an idea here, Okay, the Chiefs in one score games
have been awful after being a maze last year. The
tide is totally changed. As you would expect. They are
zero to five straight up in one score games.
Speaker 1 (14:07):
However, However, when you.
Speaker 2 (14:11):
Look at teams that are that are at home who
are five and five, they're at five hundred when they're
taking on a team that is by far worse schedule wise,
and they're winning eighty percent of their games. From week
eleven on. It's happened fourteen times in the NFL. The
(14:37):
teams are fourteen to oh straight up and twelve oh
to two against the number it's happened fifteen times. This
will be the fifteenth time since nineteen ninety. They have
to win this game. You could say, Matt, they win
the game by one or two. Okay, maybe I'd be
(14:57):
surprised if the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (14:58):
Win this game.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
I don't think it's one score. I think Case makes
Daniel Jones play that he has played earlier this month
or less. I guess it was late last month in
which he turned the Bowl over six times. I think
that could happen here against the Chiefs. They have no choice.
Case has no choice. They are over three games back
(15:19):
of Denver already. Denver's nine to two, Casey is five
and five if they lose this game. They're playing on
the road at Dallas on Thanksgiving, a short week. They
play in a prime time all eyes on them spot
on the road, Jerry's World against a really good offense
(15:40):
and a revamped defense for the Dallas Cowboys, and Dallas
will need the game just as much as Kansas City.
If they're five and six going into that game, they
could be five and seven and it's over for the
case Chiefs. They will miss the playoffs if they go
five and seven. See them losing to the Colts in
(16:02):
this scenario, given what is on the docket here for
the Casey Chiefs, looking at their schedule and how difficult
their schedule is going to be home for the Colts,
at the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, Texans at home on Sunday
Night football. Not easy, the Chargers at home. They go
at the Titans for a break, and then the Broncos
(16:25):
on Christmas Day and at the Raiders to end the season.
They could lose to the Colts. They could lose to
the Cowboys. They could lose to the Texans. They could
lose to the Chargers. They could lose to the Broncos.
All possible case has no margin for any type of loss.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
At home.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
They have to beat the Colts, beat the Texans, beat
the Chargers, beat the Broncos. They can lose the game
against the Cowboys. There's your sixth loss, okay, and maybe
they got a shot. You beat the Raiders there and
they wind up with an eleven and six record, maybe
a ten and seven record that probably gets you into
the playoffs, but that's a big probably maybe get you
(17:09):
into the postseason. As of right now, as it stands,
KSE is not in the postseason. Jacksonville at six and
four is in. They have a one game lead. The
Chargers are seven and four. They have a two game lead,
one game in the lost columnber so a one and
a half game lead for the Chargers. K C cannot
(17:30):
afford any type of losses here, in particular because the
Ravens could wind up winning the division, Steelers could still
be a wildcard team, the Patriots can win the division,
the Bills going up being a wildcard team, that Broncos
can win the division, the Chargers going up being a
wildcard team. This is getting crowded for Kansas City KC
(17:53):
minus three for one point two units and minus one twenty.
Speaker 1 (17:59):
I want the three, not the hook. I want the three.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
So bets for today on Thursday, same game teaser Bill's
pick under forty nine and a half and minus one
twenty five, Christian Kirk over one and a half receptions
and minus one oh eight, Dallas and Vancouver over six
and minus one twenty and for Sunday our first bet
CAC minus three for one point two units coming up
against the Colts.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
My name is Matt Perolt.
Speaker 2 (18:24):
You guys can follow me across all my socials if
you want at Sports Doc Matt. If you want more
breakdown on tonight's game, If you want more coverage of
the weekend, including Saturday's college football games and Sunday Slate,
join me on the Bostonian Versus the Book at one
pm Eastern time on YouTube. Simply go and search at
(18:46):
Boston Versus the Book. It's the same when it comes
to Twitter. At Boston Versus the Book. I will be
on live at one pm Eastern ten am Pacific time,
streaming live audio podcasts. Wherever you guys get your audio podcasts.
Just go and search at sports Talk Matt. The audio
podcast will drop somewhere around two thirty Eastern time. If
you miss the live show, you can always watch it
(19:07):
back on replay as well at Sports Talk Matt.
Speaker 1 (19:10):
That's my Twitter handle.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
If you forget any of the things I just said
for coming up here for the weekend, the Daily Juice
podcast every single morning. Wherever you guys get your podcast,
it is the daily juice
What's up, guys, Happy Thursday.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Welcome into another episode of the Daily Juice podcast with
me and Matt Parotz. You guys can follow me across
all of my socials at Sports Talk Matt, and we're back.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
After a flat day, we go two and two.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
The only college basketball bets I have gotten right here
on the Daily Juice are both involving the Creighton Blue.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
Jays, which is not a surprise.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Okay, it's the program I know the best and I'm
the closest to It was the right play because they
scored twenty eight points in the second half. They didn't cover.
They only scored seventy five points and the second half.
I was worried about the second half and it did
not go well for the Jays. They did win, but
move boy, so team total, they scored forty seven points
in the first half.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
We got that right.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
We got the Bruins and the Ducks that game again
and flew over first period three goals. That was a
good bet of the day. The over for CMU and
k State did not come in. That fell forty four
too long. That first drive for Central Michigan took up
the entire first quarter. That kind of killed the ability
for an extra possession there to have that game go over,
(01:19):
and then Yukon was trailing at the break, they lose
the game outright to Arizona. Arizona's got the best resume
of anybody in college basketball right now, and I'm done
fading Arizona. I mean, they are just really, really good
right now. The peat kid is tremendous. They're tough, they rebound,
they're well coached, and they walked into Yukon and snapped
(01:42):
their long non conference home winning streak tonight with a big,
big win for Arizona. So I'm done Finn the Wildcats.
They right now they look like the best team in America. Now,
it's early, it's November, but that was pretty impressive. So
two and two night for us. We go down one
point two units on the day. Now, couple things, so
(02:07):
today being a Thursday, it's obviously an NFL day for us,
and we're obviously going to get into a bunch of
things football related with the Bills on the road here tonight.
And look, Buffalo is going to be I think by
the time this game kicks off, it's probably gonna be
somewhere around seven. I mean, right now, that number is
(02:28):
six or six and a half for the Bills on
the road, and I think you're going to see quite
a bit of money come in on Buffalo late. And
I don't think that's really the wrong the wrong play
to come in on Buffalo, but I think you are
going to have to take a look at what's happening
here for this game on Thursday. And if you are
interested in taking a look at what's going to happen,
(02:50):
you guys can go to our friends at hard Rock
Bed to see what they've got available. They are the
presenting sponsor of this podcast. It is Thursday night. So
you have football, you have college football, you have the NBA,
you have the NHL. If you guys have not used
the first bet option, you can do so you bet
five dollars. If you win, you get your winnings, plus
(03:12):
they'll give you one hundred and fifty dollars in extra
bonus bets. But the hard Rock Bet app also has
the Stats Hub, which is check full of trends, streaks,
and stats to help you make better bets. The hard
Rock Bet sports book app is the only legal sports
book in Florida, but it's also.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
Legal and live in Arizona, Ohio, New.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, and Colorado coming soon more states.
Speaker 1 (03:35):
Plus.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day, so
whether you're listening or just open up the app, check
out what they've got any day of the week. Download
the hard rock Bet app and make your first deposit
to day.
Speaker 3 (03:49):
Payable and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by
the Seminole Tribe of Florida. In Florida, offered by the
Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
In other states.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
Must be twenty one and physically president Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana,
New Jersey, Ohio, ten your Virginia to play. Terms and
conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight
eight eight Admit it in Indiana. If you are somebody
you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call
one eight hundred and nine with it. Gambling problem called
one hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
Okay, let's talk about what to do with this game.
So the Bills and the Texans Buffalo the numbers are
pretty impressive. Okay, if you look at just the overall
trends for the Bills in this game, namely Josh Allen.
When Josh Allen faces a top defense, one that's allowing
less than twenty points per game, it's happened twenty nine time.
(04:35):
This will be the thirtieth time in his career this
will happen. Josh Allen is twenty four and five straight up,
twenty three to five and one against the number, and
when your opponent is over five hundred straight up, he's
seventeen to four and one against the spread.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
I don't want to play around with the number here.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
I just went and found six and I pulled it
down to the Bills pick.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
So what do we do with the total?
Speaker 2 (04:58):
We're going to go from forty five three and a
half up to forty nine and a half. These two
teams played last year in Houston. He was twenty three
to twenty.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
CJ. Stroud played in that game. This will not be
c J. Stroud.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
This will be Davis Mills starting again at quarterback for
the Houston Texans. But historically speaking, over the last nine matchups,
the under is seven and two for Houston and Buffalo
this year, the Texans are are six three and one
to the under and the.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Bills are five and five, so they're flat.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
I just don't think with Davis Mills, we're gonna see
a whole lot of offense here. I mean, last week
you saw sixteen points being scored by the Texans. The
week prior, they scored thirty six up against Jacksonville.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
That was that crazy ending.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
And think it had more to do with you Jacksonville
and the way they played and let up in the
fourth quarter. And frankly, twenty nine points on that Texans
defense is pretty rare for what they normally give up.
I don't think the Bills are going to score thirty tonight.
I think they're going to be held somewhere in the twenties.
And I don't think we're gonna see a whole lot
of points being scored by the Houston Texans. It's Thursday night,
(06:10):
it's a short week oftentimes that can be tough. The
Bills have also dropped five straight games outright in Houston. Okay,
the last time they won was in two thousand and six.
Josh Allen has started three of the matchups, and the
Bills have scored twenty points or fewer in every single
one of them. So if you want to play just
(06:31):
straight under, you can do that. But forty three and
a half is pretty darn low. Okay, So this is
the issue. And Houston is twenty two to ten to
the under at home in games in which CJ. Stroud
does not start. Okay, So like that's the Houston is
(06:52):
an under team. They're zero and two straight up and
oh and two against the spread where they're at home.
As a team team here, I just think this is
another game in which we go under. But I think
we tease up to forty nine and a half to
be safe and take the Bills down to a pick.
Bills win the game, and we see a under forty
(07:13):
nine and a half from minus one twenty five. If
you just strictly want to bet the game as the under,
I think you can just straight up bet the under
on the game today. I think that's a fine play
to make as well. Bills pick under forty nine and
a half. Same game teaser at minus one twenty five.
You may need to all spread and all total this
game to get to the minus one twenty five at
(07:33):
your particular book, but shop around and find the best
value there. But we're going with the Bills to win
the game, and we're taking a under forty nine and
a half here for a same game teaser. We've not
done one of these in a while, but I think
it's the best way to approach this game, just because
the Bills have performed so poorly. If they cover, it'll
be somewhat of a surprise given their inability to move
(07:56):
the football on the road at Houston with this defense
being very, very good. Again, the Bills are zero to
five in their last five games at Houston. Now, there
is one prop bet that the prop bet cheat sheet likes,
and it's going to the Texans Christian Kirk, who is
right now being projected to have two catches on the
game by the prop bet cheat sheet, a sixty three
(08:18):
percent cover probability, a plus twenty one expected value play
in a five star bet. Now, this is the only
five star bet as at this point in the time
of taping. This is the only five star bet that
the bet cheat sheet likes. Now as we get to
the day of there may be other bets to pop up,
and we'll see how Christian Kirk's numbers change. If you
guys wake up and the prop bet cheat sheet doesn't
(08:38):
like this, It's okay, I've already bet it because I
think it's possible that Christian Kirk gets involved. He has
only had one catch the last two games, but he
was targeted four times in the game against Tennessee, and
I think they'll look to target him again here in
the screen game with Davis Mills. So I think Christian
Kirk has a decent game. He had four catches against
(08:59):
deb and he had four catches against Baltimore, and now
that was with CD Stroud, but he was utilized before
the injury. I think they'll look to get him back
involved again. He was targeted four times last week, three
times the week before. He makes two of the catches
bubble screens and quick passes and slants. He makes two
catches and we go over. Prop pet cheat sheet likes
(09:22):
this as a five star play and it's cheap. It's
only minus one oh eight. I'm gonna jump in. I'm
gonna trail it. Let's go here with the prop pet
cheat sheet and we're gonna go on over one and
a half receptions for Christian Kirk at minus one oh
eight for one point zero eight units. One more bet
for today and then I'll give you our first play
(09:42):
coming up for Sunday here because I want the number.
The number is important to me because I think the
number is going to move. Let's talk hockey Dallas and Vancouver.
The total is six. It's a little juicy minus one
twenty from a total perspective, but it's Dallas and Vancouver.
We've been betting Vancouver over because Vancouver is sixteen to
(10:05):
four and one this year to the over. Now the
Maple leafs that trend has sort of shifted. But Vancouver
is ten and zero to the over in their last
ten games, where we're just gonna bet this until we lose. Like,
I just think you have to keep on playing Vancouver
overs when it's six. In particular, Vancouver's at home. Vancouver
(10:28):
at home is eight and one over there over the
nine games they've played at home this season, eight and one.
They're playing Dallas. Now, Dallas hasn't been a great over team,
but they're five and four on the road to the
over over the last five games for Dallas, they're three
and two to the over. Again, this does not matter
as to who's playing in net. These games have just
(10:50):
been very high scoring. Again, if you want to come
in and take a look at, you know, betting on
a gift goal in the first ten minutes, If you
want to bet on a first period over, you can
do that as well. Vancouver has been somewhat profitable. A
little surprising how they've not been as profitable as you
would think given how many times their games have gone over.
(11:11):
But Vancouver on the year for a gift is now,
let's see, whereas Vancouver, it's not where you'd expect it
to be. Dallas is eleven and eighteen eleven out of
eighteen games, sixty one point one percent to a gift
goal in the first ten minutes. Vancouver is fifty percent.
Ten of twenty. They are nine of twenty for a
(11:33):
first period over. The difference is Vancouver for a second
period over. Fourteen of their twenty games have gone to
a second period over. That's seventy percent of the time.
And Vancouver has been just again, they've been giving up
goals a ton here, scoring a bunch in the first
period and giving up a bunch of goals in the
first period, but also just overall, they've scored fourteen goals
(11:56):
in the first period so far, they've given up eighteen
goals in the first period. They've scored twenty two goals
in the second period, while Vancouver has given up eighteen
goals in the second period and then third period, they've
given up a bunch of goals as well, thirty one
third period goals. That is number one in the NHL.
(12:16):
So that's how these games are really going over. You
don't need to bet the first period the gift. You
don't want to a first period over, I haven't. Let's
just bet the game over here for the Vancouver Canucks
and the Dallas Stars. We're going over six for one
point two units. Now, there is a bet I want
to give you guys here on a Thursday for Sunday.
(12:38):
I want Kansas City minus three Circa Sports. If you
have Circa in your state, you can find three minus
one twenty for the Chiefs at home against the Colts.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
So here's the rationale for this bet and why I'm
betting it now and why I want three. The KSE
Chiefs have to win this game. What's interesting is that
Patrick Mahomes has not played well against Indianapolis in his career.
He's one in two straight up in one and two
against the number. Against the Colts, he's lost their last
(13:12):
two games, both straight up and against the spread, but
they came back in twenty twenty two and twenty nineteen. Okay,
of the teams in the NFL, the only ones that
Patrick Mahomes is under five hundred Indianapolis and Philadelphia.
Speaker 1 (13:28):
That's it.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
The Colts are off of a bye. Nine teams have
had a bye week before facing the Chiefs and Mahomes.
Those teams are six and three against the number. You
would expect it right extra time to prepare. They've covered
by over five points. When those teams are underdogs against
Kansas City, they are six and one against the spread,
the only loss coming from the forty nine ers in
(13:50):
the Super Bowl back in twenty twenty. To give you
an idea here, Okay, the Chiefs in one score games
have been awful after being a maze last year. The
tide is totally changed. As you would expect. They are
zero to five straight up in one score games.
Speaker 1 (14:07):
However, However, when you.
Speaker 2 (14:11):
Look at teams that are that are at home who
are five and five, they're at five hundred when they're
taking on a team that is by far worse schedule wise,
and they're winning eighty percent of their games. From week
eleven on. It's happened fourteen times in the NFL. The
(14:37):
teams are fourteen to oh straight up and twelve oh
to two against the number it's happened fifteen times. This
will be the fifteenth time since nineteen ninety. They have
to win this game. You could say, Matt, they win
the game by one or two. Okay, maybe I'd be
(14:57):
surprised if the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (14:58):
Win this game.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
I don't think it's one score. I think Case makes
Daniel Jones play that he has played earlier this month
or less. I guess it was late last month in
which he turned the Bowl over six times. I think
that could happen here against the Chiefs. They have no choice.
Case has no choice. They are over three games back
(15:19):
of Denver already. Denver's nine to two, Casey is five
and five if they lose this game. They're playing on
the road at Dallas on Thanksgiving, a short week. They
play in a prime time all eyes on them spot
on the road, Jerry's World against a really good offense
(15:40):
and a revamped defense for the Dallas Cowboys, and Dallas
will need the game just as much as Kansas City.
If they're five and six going into that game, they
could be five and seven and it's over for the
case Chiefs. They will miss the playoffs if they go
five and seven. See them losing to the Colts in
(16:02):
this scenario, given what is on the docket here for
the Casey Chiefs, looking at their schedule and how difficult
their schedule is going to be home for the Colts,
at the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, Texans at home on Sunday
Night football. Not easy, the Chargers at home. They go
at the Titans for a break, and then the Broncos
(16:25):
on Christmas Day and at the Raiders to end the season.
They could lose to the Colts. They could lose to
the Cowboys. They could lose to the Texans. They could
lose to the Chargers. They could lose to the Broncos.
All possible case has no margin for any type of loss.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
At home.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
They have to beat the Colts, beat the Texans, beat
the Chargers, beat the Broncos. They can lose the game
against the Cowboys. There's your sixth loss, okay, and maybe
they got a shot. You beat the Raiders there and
they wind up with an eleven and six record, maybe
a ten and seven record that probably gets you into
the playoffs, but that's a big probably maybe get you
(17:09):
into the postseason. As of right now, as it stands,
KSE is not in the postseason. Jacksonville at six and
four is in. They have a one game lead. The
Chargers are seven and four. They have a two game lead,
one game in the lost columnber so a one and
a half game lead for the Chargers. K C cannot
(17:30):
afford any type of losses here, in particular because the
Ravens could wind up winning the division, Steelers could still
be a wildcard team, the Patriots can win the division,
the Bills going up being a wildcard team, that Broncos
can win the division, the Chargers going up being a
wildcard team. This is getting crowded for Kansas City KC
(17:53):
minus three for one point two units and minus one twenty.
Speaker 1 (17:59):
I want the three, not the hook. I want the three.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
So bets for today on Thursday, same game teaser Bill's
pick under forty nine and a half and minus one
twenty five, Christian Kirk over one and a half receptions
and minus one oh eight, Dallas and Vancouver over six
and minus one twenty and for Sunday our first bet
CAC minus three for one point two units coming up
against the Colts.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
My name is Matt Perolt.
Speaker 2 (18:24):
You guys can follow me across all my socials if
you want at Sports Doc Matt. If you want more
breakdown on tonight's game, If you want more coverage of
the weekend, including Saturday's college football games and Sunday Slate,
join me on the Bostonian Versus the Book at one
pm Eastern time on YouTube. Simply go and search at
(18:46):
Boston Versus the Book. It's the same when it comes
to Twitter. At Boston Versus the Book. I will be
on live at one pm Eastern ten am Pacific time,
streaming live audio podcasts. Wherever you guys get your audio podcasts.
Just go and search at sports Talk Matt. The audio
podcast will drop somewhere around two thirty Eastern time. If
you miss the live show, you can always watch it
(19:07):
back on replay as well at Sports Talk Matt.
Speaker 1 (19:10):
That's my Twitter handle.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
If you forget any of the things I just said
for coming up here for the weekend, the Daily Juice
podcast every single morning. Wherever you guys get your podcast,
it is the daily juice
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang
Ding dong! Join your culture consultants, Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang, on an unforgettable journey into the beating heart of CULTURE. Alongside sizzling special guests, they GET INTO the hottest pop-culture moments of the day and the formative cultural experiences that turned them into Culturistas. Produced by the Big Money Players Network and iHeartRadio.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.