December 4, 2025 • 13 mins
A 2-0 night for host Matt Perrault makes it 2 out of 3 winning nights to start the week. Matt is back with 3 bets on the big Lions vs Cowboys game for the latest episode of the Daily Juice presented by Hard Rock Bet.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
What's up, guys?
Speaker 2 (00:16):
How are you welcome into a Thursday morning episode of
the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Pereltz. You
guys can follow me across all of my socials at
Sports Talk Matt, and we were back after kind of
a unique day. We end up going too and O
last night, so we're up two units on the day.
So it was good hockey wins. We get their easy
it was for nothing after one period, so we got
that right. The NBA player prop with Cooper flag they
(00:38):
came in. But the Jalen Johnson prop that I played,
he was not on the injury report. He was day
to day, but he had been cleared to play last
night and then an hour for the game he got scratched,
so that was that was unfortunate. So only two bets
in play. We wind up going two and I was
(01:00):
so up too units on the day. So it's been
sort of a yo yo type of week for US. Win, lose, win,
lose on this I guess it was a win lose win.
So let's see what today brings on a Thursday. So
up for the week so far, and we head into
Thursday where I've got three bets on THURSDA Night Football
(01:20):
between the Lions and the Cowboys. This game is a
de facto playoff game. It's an effective elimination game. The
team that wins this game is still alive for a
postason bid. The team that loses this game, it's pretty
much over. I just don't like the vibes for the Lions.
I just I gave that out yesterday. I took I
(01:42):
got three and a half. It's three. I'm gonna stick
with it. I'm gonna take three. If you're concerned about
the three, I think you can do a same game teaser.
I think you can pull the total down from from
fifty four and a half to forty eight and a
half or forty and bet the over and then take
the Cowboys at plus three to plus nine. I think
(02:05):
it's a fine way of playing this game if that's
how you want to approach it. I just I have
been sort of hesitant on long teasers and same game teasers.
The books are wise to it, and the game, the
flow of the game is different. Right now, Like, this
is a crazy stat from the Action Network that I
(02:25):
want to give you guys, because it is pretty pretty remarkable,
to give you an idea Right now, entering Week fourteen,
there are seventeen teams listed at fifty to one odds
below fifty to one odds to win the Super Bowl,
so shorter odds. That's the most of any season up
(02:46):
to this point dating back to twenty ten. The previous
high was fifteen teams at below fifty to one odds
this late in the year, dating back in twenty seventeen.
Right now, there are twelve teams at least four games
above five hundred entering Week fourteen. That is tied for
the most in NFL history, and all twelve of those
(03:10):
teams are under fifty to one to win it all.
Speaker 1 (03:14):
There are ten.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
Teams currently listed below twenty to one odds to win
it all, which is the most for such teams that
we've had since twenty ten when there were eleven. So
what does that mean. That means that nobody knows anything. Okay,
my former co host would say the other word. Okay,
nobody knows bleep about what's going on right now in
(03:38):
the NFL. It is wide open. It is wide wide open.
And so we have the Seahawks at fourteen to one
and the Patriots at eleven to one. But if you
want to go take the Bears at twenty five to one.
I'm not going to argue they're a one seat at
the moment. You want to go find the Packers eighteen
nineteen somewhere in that range.
Speaker 1 (03:57):
Go right ahead.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
You want to go and try to find somebody else
longer shot. This is crazy. We are so wide open
right now in the NFL, and so that's why teasing
the books. Don't know what's gonna happen, like the books
are confused by the numbers, and thus moving numbers doesn't
always come into play. You're not getting the benefit this
(04:19):
year by teasing games the way that we used to
because of the fact that.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
We know it is a parlay.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
So you're making it more difficult for yourself just to
win or lose one play. You got to win two
plays to win one in a parlay or a teaser.
So we're making it more difficult on ourselves, in particular
with how topsy turvy and wonky this year has been
in the NFL. Now, we've done pretty well in the NFL.
Let me see if I can pull that up real quick,
(04:47):
what the record is for plays in the NFL in
twenty twenty five. Okay, we're slowly starting to get back.
We're still pretty much we're still behind. The Thanksgiving holiday
really put us behind, so this isn't going to be
totally accurate about a week behind, but going into the
Thanksgiving Day week, we were hitting at a fifty seven
(05:09):
point five percent clip, up about twelve units in the
NFL and NFL Player props. We're hitting in a sixty
percent clip for twenty twenty five, up over five units.
So you know, we've done really well in the NFL
this year and at the end of last year. But
it's a very difficult year. This has been this has
been tough. So I've already given you out Dallas plus
three and a half. That's a bet you guys could
(05:32):
have played.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
You play now. We gave it out yesterday. It's live
for tonight.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
I like the Cowboys here because I think the injuries
are so dramatic for that defense, for the for the Lions.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
But we're going to add to it.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
Before we do that, let's talk about our friends at
hard Rock Bet. They are the presenting sponsor of the
Daily Jews podcast. There has been some big developments with
hard rock Bet. It is now live in the State
of Michigan.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
If you sign up today and.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
Place your first five dollars sports bet, if it wins,
you get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
on top of your winnings. Plus, if you're into casino games,
new customers can get up to one thousand dollars back
in casino bonus. If you're not up money after the
first twenty four hours of playing slots, you win money
or get or going get a casino bonus back, Plus
(06:21):
you get two hundred bonus spins winnings, which.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
We'll pay out in cash. Remember what the.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
Hard rock bet stats hub with trends, streaks, and stats
to help you guide your plays. Hard rock Bet offers
new promos daily plus big legendary reward drops every Thursday.
So whenever you're listening to this podcast or watching this podcast,
open the app and check out what you've got waiting
for you. Download the hard rock Bet app and make
(06:47):
your first deposit today.
Speaker 3 (06:49):
Sports Welcome offer is payable in bonus bets, not a
cash offer. Casino offer issued as non withdrawable site credits.
Ten dollars plus deposit required for two hundred bonus spins
for huff and more puff only up to one thousand
dollars back in casino bonus if player has net loss
on slots after first twenty four hours. Casino bonus credit
has a one time wager requirement offered by Seminal Hard
(07:11):
Rock Digital LLC. Must be twenty one plus and physically
present in Missouri to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned
about gambling called one eight hundred gambler.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
So we got Dallas plus three. What else are we doing? Well,
here's the thing. You start pulling up some stats in
numbers involving the Cowboys. They are ten and two this
year to their team total being over. The total of
this game is fifty four and a half, and the
team to over the Cowboys is twenty five and a half.
Speaker 1 (07:40):
That seems like like.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
Stunningly low to me, to be quite honest, given what
this Cowboys offense has looked like. So the Cowboys, let's
talk about their numbers. Thirty one points against the Chiefs,
twenty four points against the Eagles, thirty three points against
the Raiders, seventeen points against Arizona, twenty four points again Denver,
(08:04):
forty four points against Washington, twenty seven points against Carolina,
thirty seven points against the Jets, forty points against the Packers,
you get my point. Okay, twenty five and a half
in a dome in primetime with Dak Prescott for an
offense that has been extremely.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
Productive this season.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
The Dallas offense is averaging twenty nine point three points
per game, second best in the NFL. They're averaging six
point one yards per play, third best in the NFL.
Speaker 1 (08:37):
They're gonna move the football.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Now. The Lions offense is very good too. You can
bet the over in this game. But the offense for
the Lions has been somewhat inconsistent. It's been hit or
miss with this team. And last week, in a game
that they absolutely had to have against the Bears, they
didn't win it in overtime.
Speaker 1 (08:58):
Sorry, they won it, but they didn't cover.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
As the game went to overtime, they were laying it
was a push, I guess, but thirty one to twenty four,
so you look, I mean sorry. Against Green Bay they
were seven point favorites. They lost Togain, not the Giants,
not the Giant. Sorry, they lost to green Bay outright,
So everyone's gonna run and say, you know, bet the
trend for what has happened here for the Lions. They
(09:24):
lose Dan Campbell the next week. He's highly effective. He wins,
he covers. They were thirteen and one ATS before they
ended up losing to the Giants. That was the game
they didn't cover. They won, but they didn't cover as
monster favorites. They lost to Eagles, they didn't cover, and
then they lost to Green Bay. So if you look
at just from an ATS perspective, this has not been
(09:44):
a good year at all for this team. So they
have failed to cover in three consecutive games. In four
of their last five games they have failed to cover.
They were three point thirteen point eight point favorites two
and a half point dogs to Philadelphia. They lost by
seven on the road in that game. On the flip side,
the Cowboys have won and covered three straight games against
(10:05):
the Chiefs, Eagles, and Raiders. It's been pretty impressive what
this defense has looked like since the buye and since
they made the trades for two defensive players, plus they
got healthy getting three more defensive players, it's a totally
different Dallas team. So I'm a little concerned about how
many points Detroit's going to score tonight. To be quite honest,
I'm not in love with how many points Detroit gets into,
so I'm worried about that. It could be a twenty
(10:27):
a twenty seven to twenty four final and then that
game it falls fifty one and we're short, So I'm
a little hesitant.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
I'm betting the over a.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
Fifty four and a half because of how big that
number is. But this is, as our guy Andrew Erickson
is coined, Ford Field is the course field of the NFL.
So for that reason, I think it's better just to
go team total, because I do think it's a little
bit on the depressed side. We're going team total Dallas
over twenty five and a half points for this game
(10:58):
Dallas plus three Dallas team total over twenty five and
a half. One prop to get into, and it comes
from the prop bet cheat sheet. It is Jamiir Gibbs.
It's a big number rushing and receiving yards for Jamiir
Gibbs to go over one hundred and seventeen and a half. Now,
he did not do this against green Bay last week,
(11:18):
but against the Giants he had an epic game, So
you could say that was just kind of an inevitability
when you have two hundred and sixty four yards two
hundred and nineteen yards rushing in forty five yards rushing
receiving up against the Giants. They win thirty four to
twenty seven. Just a ridiculous game for Jamir Gibbs. The
next week he's gonna have a difficult time. He's tired.
So he only had eighty six sixty eight yards rushing
(11:41):
eighteen yards receiving against the Packers. But he's had one
seventy two, one forty six and two sixty four after
the last time. He didn't have it against the Vikings.
We only had twenty eight We like over three four
of the last five games to go over. This is
a sixty seven percent cover probability. Is a twenty three
(12:01):
percent plus percent expected value play five star ranking at
the on their Betting Pros prop bet cheat sheet. Jamiir
Gibbs over one seventeen and a half rushing and receiving
against the Cowboys defense. That still gives up big plays.
Even with the Cowboys making changes with their defense, they
(12:21):
still give up really big plays both in the screen game,
in the passing game, and the run game for that matter.
Will took Jamiir Gibbs to go over one seventeen and
a half rushing and receiving yards tonight on Thursday Night Football.
If you want more breakdown for this game here tonight,
plus all the games happening on Monday, sorry on Saturday
rather for the national Championships or the conference championships heading
(12:45):
to the National Championships for college football. You can join
me coming up on my other show at the Bostonian
Versus the Book to break down the Cowboys and the Lions.
It is a one pm Eastern time start on the
Bostonian Versus the Book YouTube channel that is at Boston
Versus the Book, same handle on x Live at one pm.
(13:06):
Audio podcasts wherever you guys get your audio podcasts. Immediately
following the show being over, will break down everything happening
for the football weekend. Coming up here today at one
o'clock Eastern time. Mine's Matt Paratze. Guys can follow me
acus all my socials at Sportstock Matt every morning wherever
you guys get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
It is the Daily Juice
What's up, guys?
Speaker 2 (00:16):
How are you welcome into a Thursday morning episode of
the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Pereltz. You
guys can follow me across all of my socials at
Sports Talk Matt, and we were back after kind of
a unique day. We end up going too and O
last night, so we're up two units on the day.
So it was good hockey wins. We get their easy
it was for nothing after one period, so we got
that right. The NBA player prop with Cooper flag they
(00:38):
came in. But the Jalen Johnson prop that I played,
he was not on the injury report. He was day
to day, but he had been cleared to play last
night and then an hour for the game he got scratched,
so that was that was unfortunate. So only two bets
in play. We wind up going two and I was
(01:00):
so up too units on the day. So it's been
sort of a yo yo type of week for US. Win, lose, win,
lose on this I guess it was a win lose win.
So let's see what today brings on a Thursday. So
up for the week so far, and we head into
Thursday where I've got three bets on THURSDA Night Football
(01:20):
between the Lions and the Cowboys. This game is a
de facto playoff game. It's an effective elimination game. The
team that wins this game is still alive for a
postason bid. The team that loses this game, it's pretty
much over. I just don't like the vibes for the Lions.
I just I gave that out yesterday. I took I
(01:42):
got three and a half. It's three. I'm gonna stick
with it. I'm gonna take three. If you're concerned about
the three, I think you can do a same game teaser.
I think you can pull the total down from from
fifty four and a half to forty eight and a
half or forty and bet the over and then take
the Cowboys at plus three to plus nine. I think
(02:05):
it's a fine way of playing this game if that's
how you want to approach it. I just I have
been sort of hesitant on long teasers and same game teasers.
The books are wise to it, and the game, the
flow of the game is different. Right now, Like, this
is a crazy stat from the Action Network that I
(02:25):
want to give you guys, because it is pretty pretty remarkable,
to give you an idea Right now, entering Week fourteen,
there are seventeen teams listed at fifty to one odds
below fifty to one odds to win the Super Bowl,
so shorter odds. That's the most of any season up
(02:46):
to this point dating back to twenty ten. The previous
high was fifteen teams at below fifty to one odds
this late in the year, dating back in twenty seventeen.
Right now, there are twelve teams at least four games
above five hundred entering Week fourteen. That is tied for
the most in NFL history, and all twelve of those
(03:10):
teams are under fifty to one to win it all.
Speaker 1 (03:14):
There are ten.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
Teams currently listed below twenty to one odds to win
it all, which is the most for such teams that
we've had since twenty ten when there were eleven. So
what does that mean. That means that nobody knows anything. Okay,
my former co host would say the other word. Okay,
nobody knows bleep about what's going on right now in
(03:38):
the NFL. It is wide open. It is wide wide open.
And so we have the Seahawks at fourteen to one
and the Patriots at eleven to one. But if you
want to go take the Bears at twenty five to one.
I'm not going to argue they're a one seat at
the moment. You want to go find the Packers eighteen
nineteen somewhere in that range.
Speaker 1 (03:57):
Go right ahead.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
You want to go and try to find somebody else
longer shot. This is crazy. We are so wide open
right now in the NFL, and so that's why teasing
the books. Don't know what's gonna happen, like the books
are confused by the numbers, and thus moving numbers doesn't
always come into play. You're not getting the benefit this
(04:19):
year by teasing games the way that we used to
because of the fact that.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
We know it is a parlay.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
So you're making it more difficult for yourself just to
win or lose one play. You got to win two
plays to win one in a parlay or a teaser.
So we're making it more difficult on ourselves, in particular
with how topsy turvy and wonky this year has been
in the NFL. Now, we've done pretty well in the NFL.
Let me see if I can pull that up real quick,
(04:47):
what the record is for plays in the NFL in
twenty twenty five. Okay, we're slowly starting to get back.
We're still pretty much we're still behind. The Thanksgiving holiday
really put us behind, so this isn't going to be
totally accurate about a week behind, but going into the
Thanksgiving Day week, we were hitting at a fifty seven
(05:09):
point five percent clip, up about twelve units in the
NFL and NFL Player props. We're hitting in a sixty
percent clip for twenty twenty five, up over five units.
So you know, we've done really well in the NFL
this year and at the end of last year. But
it's a very difficult year. This has been this has
been tough. So I've already given you out Dallas plus
three and a half. That's a bet you guys could
(05:32):
have played.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
You play now. We gave it out yesterday. It's live
for tonight.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
I like the Cowboys here because I think the injuries
are so dramatic for that defense, for the for the Lions.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
But we're going to add to it.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
Before we do that, let's talk about our friends at
hard Rock Bet. They are the presenting sponsor of the
Daily Jews podcast. There has been some big developments with
hard rock Bet. It is now live in the State
of Michigan.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
If you sign up today and.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
Place your first five dollars sports bet, if it wins,
you get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
on top of your winnings. Plus, if you're into casino games,
new customers can get up to one thousand dollars back
in casino bonus. If you're not up money after the
first twenty four hours of playing slots, you win money
or get or going get a casino bonus back, Plus
(06:21):
you get two hundred bonus spins winnings, which.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
We'll pay out in cash. Remember what the.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
Hard rock bet stats hub with trends, streaks, and stats
to help you guide your plays. Hard rock Bet offers
new promos daily plus big legendary reward drops every Thursday.
So whenever you're listening to this podcast or watching this podcast,
open the app and check out what you've got waiting
for you. Download the hard rock Bet app and make
(06:47):
your first deposit today.
Speaker 3 (06:49):
Sports Welcome offer is payable in bonus bets, not a
cash offer. Casino offer issued as non withdrawable site credits.
Ten dollars plus deposit required for two hundred bonus spins
for huff and more puff only up to one thousand
dollars back in casino bonus if player has net loss
on slots after first twenty four hours. Casino bonus credit
has a one time wager requirement offered by Seminal Hard
(07:11):
Rock Digital LLC. Must be twenty one plus and physically
present in Missouri to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned
about gambling called one eight hundred gambler.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
So we got Dallas plus three. What else are we doing? Well,
here's the thing. You start pulling up some stats in
numbers involving the Cowboys. They are ten and two this
year to their team total being over. The total of
this game is fifty four and a half, and the
team to over the Cowboys is twenty five and a half.
Speaker 1 (07:40):
That seems like like.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
Stunningly low to me, to be quite honest, given what
this Cowboys offense has looked like. So the Cowboys, let's
talk about their numbers. Thirty one points against the Chiefs,
twenty four points against the Eagles, thirty three points against
the Raiders, seventeen points against Arizona, twenty four points again Denver,
(08:04):
forty four points against Washington, twenty seven points against Carolina,
thirty seven points against the Jets, forty points against the Packers,
you get my point. Okay, twenty five and a half
in a dome in primetime with Dak Prescott for an
offense that has been extremely.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
Productive this season.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
The Dallas offense is averaging twenty nine point three points
per game, second best in the NFL. They're averaging six
point one yards per play, third best in the NFL.
Speaker 1 (08:37):
They're gonna move the football.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Now. The Lions offense is very good too. You can
bet the over in this game. But the offense for
the Lions has been somewhat inconsistent. It's been hit or
miss with this team. And last week, in a game
that they absolutely had to have against the Bears, they
didn't win it in overtime.
Speaker 1 (08:58):
Sorry, they won it, but they didn't cover.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
As the game went to overtime, they were laying it
was a push, I guess, but thirty one to twenty four,
so you look, I mean sorry. Against Green Bay they
were seven point favorites. They lost Togain, not the Giants,
not the Giant. Sorry, they lost to green Bay outright,
So everyone's gonna run and say, you know, bet the
trend for what has happened here for the Lions. They
(09:24):
lose Dan Campbell the next week. He's highly effective. He wins,
he covers. They were thirteen and one ATS before they
ended up losing to the Giants. That was the game
they didn't cover. They won, but they didn't cover as
monster favorites. They lost to Eagles, they didn't cover, and
then they lost to Green Bay. So if you look
at just from an ATS perspective, this has not been
(09:44):
a good year at all for this team. So they
have failed to cover in three consecutive games. In four
of their last five games they have failed to cover.
They were three point thirteen point eight point favorites two
and a half point dogs to Philadelphia. They lost by
seven on the road in that game. On the flip side,
the Cowboys have won and covered three straight games against
(10:05):
the Chiefs, Eagles, and Raiders. It's been pretty impressive what
this defense has looked like since the buye and since
they made the trades for two defensive players, plus they
got healthy getting three more defensive players, it's a totally
different Dallas team. So I'm a little concerned about how
many points Detroit's going to score tonight. To be quite honest,
I'm not in love with how many points Detroit gets into,
so I'm worried about that. It could be a twenty
(10:27):
a twenty seven to twenty four final and then that
game it falls fifty one and we're short, So I'm
a little hesitant.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
I'm betting the over a.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
Fifty four and a half because of how big that
number is. But this is, as our guy Andrew Erickson
is coined, Ford Field is the course field of the NFL.
So for that reason, I think it's better just to
go team total, because I do think it's a little
bit on the depressed side. We're going team total Dallas
over twenty five and a half points for this game
(10:58):
Dallas plus three Dallas team total over twenty five and
a half. One prop to get into, and it comes
from the prop bet cheat sheet. It is Jamiir Gibbs.
It's a big number rushing and receiving yards for Jamiir
Gibbs to go over one hundred and seventeen and a half. Now,
he did not do this against green Bay last week,
(11:18):
but against the Giants he had an epic game, So
you could say that was just kind of an inevitability
when you have two hundred and sixty four yards two
hundred and nineteen yards rushing in forty five yards rushing
receiving up against the Giants. They win thirty four to
twenty seven. Just a ridiculous game for Jamir Gibbs. The
next week he's gonna have a difficult time. He's tired.
So he only had eighty six sixty eight yards rushing
(11:41):
eighteen yards receiving against the Packers. But he's had one
seventy two, one forty six and two sixty four after
the last time. He didn't have it against the Vikings.
We only had twenty eight We like over three four
of the last five games to go over. This is
a sixty seven percent cover probability. Is a twenty three
(12:01):
percent plus percent expected value play five star ranking at
the on their Betting Pros prop bet cheat sheet. Jamiir
Gibbs over one seventeen and a half rushing and receiving
against the Cowboys defense. That still gives up big plays.
Even with the Cowboys making changes with their defense, they
(12:21):
still give up really big plays both in the screen game,
in the passing game, and the run game for that matter.
Will took Jamiir Gibbs to go over one seventeen and
a half rushing and receiving yards tonight on Thursday Night Football.
If you want more breakdown for this game here tonight,
plus all the games happening on Monday, sorry on Saturday
rather for the national Championships or the conference championships heading
(12:45):
to the National Championships for college football. You can join
me coming up on my other show at the Bostonian
Versus the Book to break down the Cowboys and the Lions.
It is a one pm Eastern time start on the
Bostonian Versus the Book YouTube channel that is at Boston
Versus the Book, same handle on x Live at one pm.
(13:06):
Audio podcasts wherever you guys get your audio podcasts. Immediately
following the show being over, will break down everything happening
for the football weekend. Coming up here today at one
o'clock Eastern time. Mine's Matt Paratze. Guys can follow me
acus all my socials at Sportstock Matt every morning wherever
you guys get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
It is the Daily Juice
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