Best Bets for Thursday | Falcons at Bucs Week 15 Picks & Predictions (12/11)

A 1-2 night for host Matt Perrault slowed down the momentum for the week but Matt is still up. Matt is back with 3 bets and 2 sports for the Thursday episode of the Daily Juice presented by Hard Rock Bet. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:15):
What's up, guys?

Speaker 2 (00:15):
How are you welcome into a Thursday morning episode of
the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Paroltz. You
guys can follow me across all of my socials at
Sports Talk Matt, and we.

Speaker 1 (00:25):
Are back after a cool down.

Speaker 2 (00:28):
Wednesday, we go one into the under for the Thunder
and Phoenix.

Speaker 1 (00:35):
I mean it went by my number.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
It closed at two six two, twenty seven to twenty
seven and a half. It fell to twenty seven to
twenty five and a half when I played more in
that game. Here in just one second, Lakers flyover. Lakers
get blown out by the Spurs. So that is a
one and two night down one point two units. I
knew that the Suns would get shut down. What I

(01:01):
did not realize is that the Suns were going to
give up one hundred and thirty eight some odd points
and that the starters for the Thunder would be on
the bench for the entire fourth quarter. And it was
G League time, and it was G League jacking threes
in the fourth quarter. So that was frustrating because even
with all that going on, we almost cashed it. Still,

(01:23):
we still almost came in and went two and one
on the night. It was a bucket, so that was
that was annoying. So unfortunately we don't get the third
straight two and one night, We go one and two
as we had towards a Thursday. I've already giving you
one of the plays here today. It was Wednesday's hard
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(01:45):
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Speaker 1 (02:03):
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(03:04):
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Speaker 2 (03:11):
So I've told you about the Tampa Bay Buck Tempa
bay Bett excuse me, that was made on Wednesday, and
I think there's there's data to go and back up.
If you want to go ahead and fade it and
you want to lay or take the points. I don't
think it's a horrible play. I'm not going I say
you're completely crazy for doing that. I have come in

(03:32):
and decided to just lay the four, which was the
basement for this number. And at time of tape we
are back to four or four and a half for
most books. Okay, I have four. You can find fours
in the marketplace. There's even you know, a fanatics at
five tonight, so there's a straggler there with fanatics. But

(03:55):
the numbers, for me, it really comes down to just
the fact that Kirk Cousins cannot be trusted in primetime
and it's less on Baker's injury, and Baker is a
home favorite. I mean things have not been good Baker
Mayfield overall at home as a home favorite, he is
thirteen twenty four and one ats. That is not good

(04:16):
over the last decade. Baker Mayfield's mark of twenty two
thirty five and one ats at home overall is the
worst for out of the one hundred and forty nine
quarterbacks in the NFL, Baker is the worst at home
ats wise number two is Kirk Cousins, but he's on

(04:36):
the road here, so but I think it comes down
to the fact that the Falcons have been really bad outdoors.
They've been really bad in divisional games and really bad
in primetime. These games generally are played closely, but I
think if you lay the four, I think we're gonna
be okay. Baker Mayfield with a historically bad loss last week,

(04:59):
he as a seven point favorite in his career, was
eleven and zero straight up before he lost to New
Orleans last week, so it's a great bounce back spot
outdoor games.

Speaker 1 (05:08):
This year.

Speaker 2 (05:09):
The Falcons are zero to five straight up two and
three ats. The Falcons have lost seven straight games outdoors
heading into this week, and they're eleven and twenty one
straight up and outdoor games since twenty twenty. They're coming
off that destruction by the Seahawks thirty one to three
in the second half for Seattle. So we're taking Tampa

(05:32):
minus four tonight here for one point one units. There
is one prop bet that I like, and it does
come from the prop bet cheat sheet, and that is
Bijon Robinson to go under four and a half receptions. Now,
Bijon Robinson this number has been four and a half
or five and a half pretty much every game, dating
all the way back to let's see the San Francisco

(05:54):
game in Week seven. He has gone under this number
in four four of the last five games. He had
two catches. Last game he had five against the Jets
in the last road game, but two against New Orleans,
four against Carolina, and two against Indianapolis.

Speaker 1 (06:13):
This is a.

Speaker 2 (06:13):
Five star play according to the prop bet cheat sheet,
with a sixty three percent cover probability and a plus
thirty four expected ev expected value on this play, it's
gone under seven of the thirteen games this year, so
pretty much it's a coin flip fifty to fifty. But
I think given the way that Kirk Cousins plays the
pass rush and he's going to be in his lap,

(06:35):
I don't think he's going to be able to find
Jon Robinson. Last week he was not looking for Bjon
Robinson with only two receptions against the Saints on the road,
he was not looking for him only two receptions. This
is a guy who I think has been used a
lot more. In the first matchup, Bjhon Robinson at home
had six catches against this Bucks defense. But since the

(06:59):
since Week eight against Miami, he's only gone over two
times over four and a half. So this is five
and two to the under over the last seven weeks.
They're not using Bijon as a catcher of the football.
And this is a really weird stat that the Action
Network pulled out for this game here tonight.

Speaker 1 (07:16):
How about this over the last three years? Sorry? Where
is this? Yeah?

Speaker 2 (07:23):
Over the last three seasons, two teams below five hundred
when they run the ball twenty five times or more.
The Titans are nine and fourteen and the Falcons are
fourteen and twenty one. And that is with Bijon Robinson.
Last week Atlanta had thirty one carries for one hundred
and twenty yards, but they lost the game thirty seven

(07:44):
to nine. It's really weird. It's really really weird. Kirk
Cousins is one in eight ats over his last nine starts,
probably because they can't move the football through the on
the ground or through the air and when they run
the ball a lot not successful in doing it. Kirk
Cousins is seventeen twenty six and one ats since twenty

(08:07):
twenty two.

Speaker 1 (08:08):
The only quarterbacks active.

Speaker 2 (08:09):
He's ahead of our Gino Smith and Mac Jones and
over that span Cousins starts in December or later is
two to nine ATS. This is Falcons, and this is
under on most of the offensive player props for the
Falcons here, including Bjon Robinson. We're gonna go under Bjon
Robinson four and a half receptions at plus money at

(08:32):
plus one twelve one NBA play to get into here
for tonight, and it's my Boston Celtics on the road
against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Speaker 1 (08:42):
The Milwaukee Bucks wrong sport. Bruce.

Speaker 2 (08:45):
Here's the thing. I've been watching this and betting this
on my own. I've not brought it to the podcast
because I just I feel like it's a little bit
of a Homer play. But and you guys roll your
eyes whenever I bet the Celtics. Have you guys been
paying attention to what Boston has been doing ATS wise?
They've covered eight straight games and they're nine to one

(09:05):
over their last ten. In fact, Boston is now ten
and seven ATS wise against the East after a horrific
start to this season ATS wise for Boston. This streak
began back on the twenty third of November. They be
covered against Orlando, they beaten covered against Detroit, they'd beaten

(09:29):
covered in Minnesota, and then the numbers started to get
really interesting. They were catching seven and a half against Cleveland,
they won the game outright. They were catching a point
and a half against the Knicks, they won outright. They
were laying ten and a half against Washington and they
won by forty five points. They were laying eight and
a half against the Lakers they won by twenty one points.

(09:49):
And they were laying three and a half against Toronto
and they won by eight. In the last game for
the Bucks, they were catching twelve and a half and
they lost by twelve. Game before that they were catching
one and a half and they lost by fifteen. And
these are the games they played without Jani's Antetakupo Janas
is out. He will out play here today and without him,

(10:11):
this is a paper tiger basketball team. The Bucks are
not the same team defensively. They're not the same team offensively.
They are really lacking any firepower without their star, their
Hall of Fame player in Yannis. This has been an
unbelievable run for the Celtics. Outright Boston has won five

(10:32):
games in a row and seven of eight. Outright, I
think they win the game outright here tonight, and I'll
lay a big number. I don't remember lay eight and
a half here, but without Yannis Milwaukee looking as bad
as they did over the last two games, and the
way that Boston's been playing with Jalen Brown, I'll lay
it Boston minus eight and a half for one point

(10:57):
one units, so it plays for Thursday, Tampa Bay minus
four for one point one units, b John Robinson under
four and a half receptions, and the Celtics in the
NBA at minus eight and a half. If you guys
want more, including a breakdown of every game that will
happen on Sunday from a betting perspective, plus a look

(11:18):
at the college football playoffs from from a betting perspective,
you can join me later today on my other show,
The Bostonian Versus the Book. To go and find it,
search at Boston Versus the Book on Twitter x or
on YouTube. I'll go live at one pm Eastern time
ten am Pacific time. Audio podcasts can be found wherever

(11:39):
you guys get your audio podcasts by searching The Bostonian
Versus the Book one o'clock for Falcons Bucks Thursday Night
Football full breakdown coming on for BVB later today at
one pm Eastern Time at Boston Versus the Book on
Twitter or on YouTube minus Matt Parol. You guys can
follow me across all my socials at Sports to Matt

(12:00):
every morning. Wherever you guys get your podcasts. It is
the Daily Juice.