Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:14):
What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Thursday
morning episode of the Daily Juice Podcast with me Matt Perrault.
You guys can follow me across all of my socials
at Sports Talk Matt and we are back after a
losing night. Unfortunately just a little one oh to one.
We lose on the Pirates run line. It was a
loss in extra innings. Another loss for Paul Schemes as
(00:35):
the pot excuse me, as the Pirates simply cannot score
to one loss in ten innings. So oh and one
down one unit. Now the numbers on your screen should
be interesting to you because the Packers are down to
minus three for tonight. We like that. If you've not
bet it yet, Packers minus three NC State in wake Forest,
(00:56):
We're going with the over fifty one and a half.
The number is tick back up to fifty two and
a half. We like the over fifty one and a
half in the college football game and the Packers minus
three tonight on Thursday Night Football. I've got two player
props and a teaser to give you guys coming up
on the Thursday episode of the Daily Juice podcast. But
(01:18):
if you didn't play the plays from yesterday. Now you
can play them today here for a Thursday for us.
Before I give you the prop bets that I like
and the teaser played that we're going to make for tonight,
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see site four. Details. All right, let's get into and Okay,
(03:07):
so if you haven't made the bet yet Packers minus three,
you might go, well, Matt, why we betting packers minus three?
Couple really big stats to tell you about with Matt Lafleur,
who is tremendous. He's sixteen and six against the spread
in September he's eight and one on the road, but
at home he is eight and three against the spread.
At home, he is very good in the month of
(03:31):
September at lambeau Field. However, though he's eight and oho
at home at lambeau Field, Packers since twenty nineteen, Matt
Lafloor has been tremendous against the number. Here comes the
Commanders in a short week they beat the Giants. Who cares?
They got to travel tough to a place that now
is going to be rocking on a Thursday night. With
(03:51):
Jordan Love taking on Jayden Daniels, should be an awesome
quarterback battle between these two teams defenses. I think the
Packers defense comes to play. I think the Packers with
now with Micah Parsons getting after the quarterback, real problem
for Jayden Daniels. No sacks taken by Jordan Love in
Week one against the Lions. That is an incredible number here.
(04:13):
Teams that take no sacks in week one are forty
six thirty two and one ats in week two since
two thousand and three, and fifteen and four ats since
twenty eighteen. According to Evan Abrams of the Action Network.
That's a heck of a stat coming up here. Commanders. Look,
I'm not high on them. I'm just not. I'm not
(04:35):
high on them. Give me the Packers minus three. I
like Green Bay tonight. Also, as I mentioned before, like
the over in the college game. But let's talk about
one thing I do like for the Washington Commanders, and
this comes from the prop bet cheat sheet. Jacorey Krosky
Merritt scored last week against the Giants. According to the
prop bet cheat sheet, this is a five star play
(04:58):
for any time touchdown and while the cover probability is
only thirty seven percent, the expected value is plus twenty
seven percent and it's plus two forty in the red zone.
This guy's gonna get the rock and you have to
expect the Washington Commanders to at least put up a
couple of touchdowns here up against the Packers. I like
(05:19):
it at plus two forty. Jacorey Crosskey Merit anytime touchdown
at plus two forty. Let's throw a half a unit
down on that to see if we can hit anytime
touchdown for the breakout star running back that everybody on
the fantasy side has been drooling about, and he did
nothing but live up to that hype in week one
against the Giants. Let's get another one here for Crosskey Merit.
(05:41):
Anytime touchdown at plus two forty for a half a unit,
and so what are we doing with the other half
a unit? I like Jordan Love. Jordan Love threw for
two touchdowns against the Lions. He's projected to throw two
touchdowns here by the prop bet cheat sheet up against
the Washington Commanders. I don't like the command there's defense
at all, whether it be the running attack, you know,
(06:03):
the run, stopping the run or stopping the pass. I
think they're going to try to gear up though, and
really try to take away the run game here for
the Packers on our short week. And you have a
good two good running backs for the Packers here. And
Josh Jacobs has been a machine. He scored a touchdown
(06:23):
by the way, in ten consecutive games, so I don't
mind that. But it's minus two hundred for him to
score a touchdown tonight. That's ridiculous. But so let's maybe
get some play action instead. Jordan Love to throw two
touchdowns is plus one oh five at hard Rock Bet.
More on them here in just one second. Let's go
Jordan Love over one and a half touchdown tosses tonight
(06:45):
at plus one oh five. Speaking of hard Rock Bet,
like I mentioned, you guys can go and get that
prop bet at hard Rock Bet if you would like.
They hard Rock Bet, the presenting sponsor of the Daily
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(07:09):
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(07:51):
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and New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia. So let's talk
about that one teaser bet that we could make. Okay,
so two props anytime touchdowns are one for Crossky Merit
in time touchdown over one and a half touchdown tosses
for Jordan Love. The Cowboys are going to beat the Giants.
(08:18):
I don't get the move. You guys can bet the
Giants all you want. The Giants stink. Cowboys are a
win that game number six or five and a half.
We're gonna pull the Cowboys down to a pick. Okay,
Cowboys pull them down to a pick. And I'm gonna
take the total of tonight's game and I'm gonna slide
(08:38):
it up to fifty four and a half, crossing the
key numbers of fifty two, fifty three, and fifty four
and play the under. I don't think Thursday Night Football
is going to be the game that we suddenly see
a bunch of scoring. Okay. Unders were extremely profitable in
Week one in the NFL. We saw so many games
go under. So many of them being low scoring. I
(09:00):
don't see any reason why we shouldn't see that continue
here on Thursday, where these teams will see low scoring game.
A low scoring game. I mean, we're talking historic in
a lot of ways. I mean, the public went three
and thirteen ats, with the five teams that were the
(09:23):
favorites going zero to five ATS, which is not good
at all. Teams that got sixty plus percentage of the
tickets that was reported went one in ten ats. Overs
and favorites did not do well at all. I mean
twelve and four unders ended Week one twelve and four,
tied for the lowest mark of any season since two thousand.
(09:46):
If you look at the last twenty years, the other
week ones in contingent for the best understarts were twenty three,
twenty ten in two thousand and six. In those years,
the unders went twenty nine, seventeen and two Week number two.
Let's start off here with an under game under fifty
four and a half and pull the Cowboys down to
(10:09):
a pick and take Dallas. So are plays for today
here on a Thursday. Jacorey krossky Merritt anytime touchdown at
plus two forty, Jordan Love over one and a half
touchdown passes at plus one oh five, the Packers at
minus three for tonight, and Green Bay under fifty four
(10:31):
and a half teased with the Dallas Cowboys at a
pick in over fifty one and a half for US
here for the game between Wake Forest and NC State.
So pretty big card for US here on a Thursday,
because yesterday was pretty much soft with just one play.
Got a bunch of bets going here on a Thursday.
Let's hopefully have a very good night tonight. My name
(10:53):
is Matt Peroalt. You guys can follow me across all
of my socials at sports Talk Matt every morning. Wherever
you guys get your podcasts is the Daily Juice