November 27, 2025 • 21 mins
Happy Thanksgiving! Host Matt Perrault is going to stuff you today with so many bets for the 3 NFL games. Find out what Matt is playing on the latest episode of the Daily Juice presented by Hard Rock Bet.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
Happy Thanksgiving, guys, what's up? Welcome into a new episode
of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Perreltz.
You guys can follow me across all of my socials
at Sports Talk Matt and Boy.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
It is a busy morning. It is a busy day.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
This is one of the best football betting days of
the year. And to celebrate all of these opportunities, we've
got the biggest card I can remember for a day
that is not a Sunday. Now, on Sundays, we normally
pile up and we have, you know, three to four
prop bets, and we've got three or four different plays
(00:49):
on a Sunday, okay, But because this is a mini
Sunday with three games today, all standalone, all that run
into each other, I have got a bet and a
prop bet on each game, and I have a teaser
to give you guys coming up here for the podcast today.
Because the menu is a little bit stretched, and because
(01:11):
it's not a Sunday, the prop bets are going to
be shrunk down to half unit place. We're going to
bet to win a half a unit because I don't
really want to get completely exposed here, and frankly, it's
just you know I again. It's it's a Thursday. We
have games on Friday. We have a huge college slate Tomorrow,
we have a huge college slate on Saturday. We have
(01:32):
a huge slate on Sunday as well. So I don't
want to get over my skis here and blow the
week if we don't do well today. So I'm gonna
normally I'm been betting full units on the props, We're
going to shrink them down to win a half a
unit on the props coming up here for today, and
then add a plus money three game NFL teaser, which
(01:54):
is pretty cool. But before I give you the place,
let's tell you about our friends at hard Rock. If
you got have not gone and taken advantage of the
five dollars bet offer it is live. You can do
it here during this holiday weekend. We all know today
is about family, food and football, and we're going to
celebrate today with a bunch of plays. You can do
(02:14):
that at hard Rock bet five dollar bet. If it hits,
you can not only get your winnings, but you also
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Good
offer there on a holiday Thursday in the hard Rock
Stats hubs available for all the trends, streaks, and stats
if you guys want to check it out. Plus this
week on hard Rock Bet there are three fifty percent
profit boosts, one for each game here today on Thanksgiving
(02:36):
you can boost your same game, parlay you your SGP
max or and your bets will pay extra winnings. Also
new promos every day, So go and download the betting pro.
So going download the hard rock bet app and make
your first deposit two day. Okay, let's start with the
first game, Green Bay and Detroit. There's some really fascinating
(02:58):
stats here at this game that I think you have
to take into account now. One the biggest stat everyone's
going to jump on is the way that favorites have
dominated here on Thanksgiving. Favorites have historically been very profitable.
Since two thousand and four. Favorites are forty and twenty
against the spread. If you extend that to being straight up,
it's fifty one to nine straight up here on Thanksgiving
(03:21):
for favorites. Favorites of seven points are more on Thanksgiving
are twenty five and ten against the number. The Ravens
will fit that coming up here at the end of
the podcast. The Chiefs are the only team that's favored
on the road. Road favors are twenty five and one
straight up, twenty five and one straight up in on
Thanksgiving twenty and six against the spread since two thousand
(03:44):
and four. Pretty impressive. But the Lions and the Cowboys
this is a while. It's been a bit the lines in.
The Cowboys have not combined to both cover on Thanksgiving
on the same day since two thousand and one, and
they have having gone two and oh straight up plus
two and oho against the number on Thanksgiving since nineteen
(04:05):
ninety four. So keep in mind, just from a trend perspective,
there's some interesting things. Green Bay under Matt Lafleoor is
a dog for the first time this season. They faced
the Eagles in the playoffs last year lost they were
a dog. Under Matt Lafloor, green Bay has gone eighteen
six and one as a dog of three points or
(04:29):
more fourteen and four ats as a dog of more
than three points, but they aren't more than three points.
It's two and a half today, two and a half
or three depending.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
On the book.
Speaker 1 (04:38):
Laflour is the only head coach in the Super Bowl
era with a winning record as an underdog. So it
is a little bit of a difficult game to handicap
because it won. It's a divisional game. Two, both these
teams need it. Three, it's Jared Goff at home. It's Detroit,
who has been very profitable recently on Thanksgiving. Okay, it's
(05:00):
not that often that we see Detroit being on Thanksgiving,
but when the Lions are backed, and they are being
backed by the public today, the Lions have not done
well when they've been backed by the public twelve times
on Thanksgiving since two thousand and five, they're oh and
twelve straight up, oh in twelve straight up, three and
(05:20):
nine against the spread in those games. That's not what
we want here as we're going to look to come
in here. But Detroit when they're favored since two thousand
and four, they're five and one straight up and the
number being two and a half. I got to go
with the Dan Campbell trends. Under Dan Campbell, Detroit is
nineteen five and one against the number in the game
following a game which the Lions have failed to cover.
(05:41):
That's the best Ats mark since he took over in
twenty twenty one. Only you only little head of John Harbaugh,
who is also in the same spot coming up this week.
I am going to come in here and I'm going
to take the Lions here at home. I think the
home favorite kicks in. It's a small price. I think
the Lions put it together here. I'm not in love
(06:02):
with this Packers team. I'm not gonna lie. I haven't
I love them early. I have not liked what I've
seen late.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
This is a game.
Speaker 1 (06:08):
I think the Packers are gonna have a struggle with
with this. And look, I think you can bet the under.
I think the under is live, but I can't do
it with Detroit at home. I just every time I've
gone I thought about betting the under, and I think
the Lions and the under is a good play. But
I think Kooby the Lions and the over, it could
be the Packers in the under. So I just I'm
staying away from totals today because it's a funky day.
(06:30):
It's a holiday. We've seen overs hit so consistently on Thanksgiving.
We've seen it be a very profitable trend to bet totals,
and I just don't really love the idea of betting
totals today. I just I'm a little bit hesitant just
as to how things are going to go. So instead,
I'm gonna come in here. I'm going to pay the
two and a half with the Lions at home, follow
the home team trend, follow the follow the favorite trend
(06:53):
Lions minus two and a half. But on the flip side,
just in case I'm completely dead wrong about that prop,
bet cheat Sheets Josh Jacobs to go over his rushing
and receiving prop. It's an eighty percent cover probability, a
plus thirty nine ev expected value, play, a five star rating,
and it's projected to fly over the number that is
(07:16):
currently being set at for Josh Jacobs. You can shop
around here. Seventy eight and a half is pretty much
the consensus. There's some exchanges that are at seventy seven
and a half, but mostly it's seventy eight and a half.
You can find that at hard Rock bad at ESPN, bet,
at bet MGM, you find that at a bunch of
different books where you have Josh Jacobs rushing and receiving
(07:36):
prop over seventy eight and a half. And remember, take
a look at the number here at mine one eighteen.
I'm only betting it to win a half a unit Okay,
you can bet it full unit if you want, not
only betting half a unit. I think Josh Jacobs is
a big game here against this Lions defense, posts, catching
and receiving.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
He is cleared to play. He is good to go.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
Josh Jacobs over seventy eight and a half rushing and
receiving yards at minus one eighteen and that's a ero
point six unit play to win a half unit. Coming back,
game number two, it's the Cowboys and the Chiefs. There
are some wild trends going into this game here, because
you've got a Chief team that Patrick Mahomes on short
rest is nineteen and three straight up in those games.
(08:19):
Mahomes and the Chiefs have won thirteen straight games dating
back to twenty twenty one when they're on short rest.
The Cowboys, on the other hand, things have not gone
well for them on Thanksgiving. They're two and four ATS
over the last six games on Thanksgiving. They are three
and eleven ATS over the last fourteen Thanksgivings dating back
(08:40):
to twenty eleven and eight and twelve ats on Thanksgiving
since two thousand and five. I already gave you the
favorite trends, so this is not good. The Cowboys are
one in seven against the first half spread since twenty seventeen,
and they're two and thirteen in the first half on
Thanksgiving since twenty ten. Indoors, Patrick Mahomes has been a
killer fourteen and two straight up in his NFL career.
(09:04):
He lost outright in the Super Bowl last year to
the Eagles in New Orleans and lost to the Colts
on the road back in twenty twenty two. Is the
only two games he has lost on the road. However,
Dak Prescott has started seven games on Thanksgiving. He's four
and three straight up. Not great against the number two
and five, but they're dogs. They're not normally dogs. That's
(09:26):
the thing. The Cowboys are traditionally favored by the public,
and traditionally they are catching. They're laying points, They're not
catching points. That's the big difference here. That's the hook
that I find this game to be so fascinating because
Dak Prescott since twenty twenty two has started five home
games in Dallas early in the week, meaning Thursday or Friday.
(09:48):
The Cowboys are five and oh straight up in those games.
I think the combination of the hook here at three
and a half, the combination of the Cowboys at home
on a short week, after what their defense has done
the last two weeks, and the fact that the Chiefs
have a tough time winning close games, and the Chiefs
(10:09):
have struggled in one win games in one score games.
I just think this again is another opportunity for the
Cowboys if their offense can score.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Now.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
I don't think Mahomes and company are gonna put up
a huge number here today. Okay, they're gonna score, but
not only they about twenty eight points. I think that's
going to be the number here. Twenty eight points is
what the Cowboys need to get to. I see a
lot of people betting the over. Okay, I get it,
Cowboys home games, their defense, they're not buying it.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
I've heard from multiple people.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
That this is a you know, this is a mirage
that this Cowboys team is not this good. Okay, I'm
going to back it. I've been backing the Cowboys all year.
I've been higher on the Cowboys than most. I'm combiny
and taking the Cowboys at plus three and a half.
I want the hook. You have to have the hook.
Got to have the hook at three and a half.
But the Cowboys think we'll be live to win the game.
(11:00):
Think it's gonna be the game of the day. I
think this is going to be an awesome game back
and forth. Could be the last team has the football,
could even be going to overtime. Okay, I think this
is going to be a war. Both these teams are
absolutely desperate for this win, like desperate, desperate, desperate for
this win. And I think we're gonna see an awesome
football game coming up here between Dallas and the Chiefs.
I'll take the points home dog on Thanksgiving. Yes, Cowboys
(11:21):
plus three and a half. If it's wrong, it's wrong
prop bet that I want to get into Xavier Worthy
and this shouldn't stun anybody given what we've seen out
of this secondary but Xavier Worthy prop bet chi Ici
loves him from a rushing receiving prop to go over
forty five and a half rushing and receiving yards seventy
three percent cover probability. It's a plus thirty seven expected
value play. It's a five star play up against the
(11:43):
Cowboys defense that has well, let's be honest, give it
up a bunch of yards running and receiving for receivers.
Last week against Indiana against Indianapolis rather sorry Indianapolis fifty
nine for Xavier Worthy. This number hasn't been hit except
last week against Indianapolis. He hasn't done a great job
with this twenty five yards receiving three yards rushing against Denver,
(12:05):
twenty three, twenty three yards receiving three yards rushing against
against the Broncos. But he's expected to have a big,
big weapon, a big day today for this offense. Prop
bet cheat sheet five star play. Let's go with it,
Xavier Worthy for the Chiefs to have more than forty
(12:26):
five and a half rushing and receiving. He's off the
injury report in case you're curious, he's been cleared, so
he should be good to go.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
Here for Patrick.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
Mahomes at home in an expected high scoring game with
a lot of possessions. Bet number three to the Lake game,
we go with the return of Joe Burrow for the Bengals.
Bengal fans are so happy to see their quarterback coming back,
and look, that's a tremendous opportunity for this team to
get their quarterback back in action to actually have him
be with Chase sorry with with Chase Brown, but also
(12:56):
but with Jamar Chase and with t Higgins. But Tie
Higgins is out concussion for him, so that means a
big use is for Jamar Chase. But I think this
is going to be a big run game. I don't
think the team wants to put Joe Burrow back there
in the first game since the turf toe injury. Do
you want him throwing the ball a ton? That's why
I don't like this game. I've seen a lot of
people take the points with the Bengals. Their year is over,
(13:21):
they're not playing for anything, They're playing for next year now.
They want to play spoiler. But do you want to
risk Joe Burrow? So I'm more I think this is
going to be a conservative game plan for the Bengals.
I think they're going to be cautious here and this
lets this Ravens defense go to work. I think it
lets the offense go to work here. This number, I mean,
(13:41):
I've seen a lot of people I wouldn't take the
Bengals here. This is the Survivor special for everybody who's
still alive and the circus survivor. Everywin's who's having to
make a play. You know, the Ravens have beaten the
Bengals four straight times. They're five and one ATS over
the last six games, and the Ravens in Bengals last
nine meetings since twenty twenty one, the overs eight and one,
(14:03):
So that maybe one way of looking.
Speaker 2 (14:05):
At this game.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
We want to bet the over, but you know, Joe
Burrow has not done well against Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson
is six and one straight up in four and three
against the spread, and that's with a healthy Joe Burrow,
not an unhealthy Joe Burrow. Ravens have won five games
in a row here. You know, they opened up the
year they lost four straight in one in five and
(14:25):
they've turned it around since nineteen ninety. According to the
Action Network, teams that are on a five plus game
straight up winning streak with a percentage that's below five
and a half are just seven and twelve straight up
and six twelve and one against the spread. But this
is a unique year for the Baltimore Ravens. Favorites in
the night game on Thanksgiving is fourteen and four ATS
(14:49):
since the holiday was adopted for the three game fourmat
back in two thousand and six. I think that's the
best trend. That's the best number here. I'll lay it
with the Ravens. I think we're going to see a
pretty much a I don't want to say a blowout,
but I like Baltimore to win and cover Baltimore minus
seven for one point one units. And along those same lines,
prop bet cheat sheet likes this, and I'm gonna follow
(15:10):
the fact that Joe Burrow is not going to be
asked to throw the ball thirty eight times today. You
can find thirty seven and a half at a variety
of books at hard Rock Bet and bet MGM. I
just don't think they're going to put him back there
that many times. I don't think it's worth it. I
don't think it's safe to do that with this injury.
It's a turf toe. I mean, you can re injure
this thing pretty easily, and that derails everything about having
(15:33):
him come back. So I'm going to come in and
take a Joe Burrow under thirty seven and a half
passing attempts today at minus one fifteen. Again, we're betting
that to win just a half a unit. And the
teaser today is different than normal. It's a three leg
seven point teaser. It's plus money, it involves all three teams,
(15:55):
all three games. And we're going to take a seven
point number and we're going to and tease the Packers. Okay,
up to ten, find the three, tease it to ten,
Packers plus ten. Take the Cowboys from three and a
half and tease them up to ten and a half.
(16:15):
One score games. That's what the that's what the Chiefs play.
So either side Cowboys win or Chiefs win, but they'll
win by more than ten. Chiefs plus ten and a half.
And take the Ravens from seven down to a pick
and the Ravens win the game. You can do a
six point teaser, but I want and get better prices.
But when it gets to nine, I'm a little bit
(16:36):
hesitant about the Lions and the Packers. I'm gonna be honest. Okay,
nine worries me a little bit. I want ten. I
want that ten. And since we're doing three legs, we
can be a little bit greedy on this and take
it to plus ten and it's plus one twenty.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
So you can play around with this if you want.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
There's no long teaser, there's no like formulaic type of
breakdown for this. For me, this is just I want
ten for the Packers on the road against the Lions.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
So they don't get shredded.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
And it's plus money, so it's just a one unit
play at plus one twenty where you have action, you know,
multiple bets going and I'm kind of thread the needle
a bit as well. Lay the two and a half
with the Lions, take the Packers up to ten to ten,
and have the game fall six, seven, eight, somewhere in
that range.
Speaker 2 (17:19):
And that's why I think it's possible as long as
the Lions don't.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
If the Lions blow out, the Packers were covered with
the Lions miss two and a half, so we're covered there.
So it's a one unit play, it's mins one ten.
So it's a little bit of a because I don't
fully know what's going to happen with that Packers Lions game.
Let's have it be a Packers win by set, but
by a Lions win by seven. That would be perfect
that were to happen, and then we go to the
(17:42):
Cowboy game and if it all rolls to the Ravens
and then if you have you know, the Cowboys cover
the ten and a half and the Packers covered ten.
It's much similar to what happened yesterday where we went
two and two, and if you guys remember I don't
actually didn't put that slide up. I'm sorry about that.
But Tennessee law like I thought they could to Kansas, right,
I said, go ahead and get involved with Kansas. So
(18:04):
you should have been able to hedge off that because
Vandy Iowa State in Houston all one, so you should
be able to hedge off of that. Andrew Nemhart came
in the over one and a half goals came in
for Vegas and Ottawa Pistons went down. My Celtics snapped
the streak, so it was two and two down point one.
It was like a nothing day. So we completely wash
of a day yesterday. But very similarly, if we're rolling
(18:25):
all the way to the night game and we cover
the first two legs of the teaser and we go
into the Ravens with a pick, if at any point,
you know, the number gets to be completely ridiculous and
it's you know, the Ravens are up big, up by
ten fourteen points at one point, well then you can
come in potentially and bet the bet the Bengals to
guarantee your self profit to make sure you don't lose
(18:47):
in cases a crazy comeback so you should be able
to do something and work off that number. If we
get to the end and it's just a money line
play on the Ravens. If there's ever an issue, the
game is tight late, if it goes to overtime, whatever
might be, you should be able to play off of it.
So much similar to yesterday, if you played that parlay,
this is a teaser parlay. If you have a chance
to play off of it, pay attention and if you get
(19:09):
the first two legs, no, you've got that night game in.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
Order to play off of it.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
So big card for us here today on a Thanksgiving
holiday recapping Lions minus two and a half full unit play,
Josh Jacobs over seventy eight and a half rushing receiving
yards half unit play, Cowboys plus three and a half
full unit play, Savior Worthy over forty five and a
half rushing receiving yards half unit play, Ravens laying seven
(19:36):
full unit play, Joe Burrow under thirty seven and a
half passing attempts half unit play. The teaser is Packers
seven point teaser of the Packers plus ten, Cowboys plus
ten and a half and the Ravens on the money line.
It's a plus one twenty bet. You can tease around
with that. Again, I want ten to that Packers game.
That's why I'm not doing a six point teaser. I'm
(19:56):
doing a ten point teaser because i want that plus ten.
As always, when it comes to those teasers, check your
house rules. Do not be betting out a book that
cause you to lose, lose a teaser if you push. Okay,
check the house rules. You do not want to lose
that plus ten. If the lines win by ten and
(20:18):
that bet becomes a loser, do not bet that there.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Okay, just don't bet it.
Speaker 1 (20:22):
It has to be a push if it falls at ten,
and that would either change the bet to be a
two leg teaser or avoid.
Speaker 2 (20:30):
The entire bet.
Speaker 1 (20:32):
Either way, it's fine, But having to be a loser
at plus ten, that's the problem. That's what we don't
want to get into. My name is Matt Pereltz. Have
a great Thanksgiving. Thank you for watching, thank you for listening.
We're back tomorrow for a Black Friday, another day, another
day of big football, collegeen Pro Huge day tomorrow, Huge
day today. Enjoy the day with your family. We're back tomorrow.
(20:54):
But as always, even on holidays, wherever you guys get
your podcasts, it is the Daily Juice
Speaker 2 (21:03):
ND Gifts, Deser
Happy Thanksgiving, guys, what's up? Welcome into a new episode
of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Perreltz.
You guys can follow me across all of my socials
at Sports Talk Matt and Boy.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
It is a busy morning. It is a busy day.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
This is one of the best football betting days of
the year. And to celebrate all of these opportunities, we've
got the biggest card I can remember for a day
that is not a Sunday. Now, on Sundays, we normally
pile up and we have, you know, three to four
prop bets, and we've got three or four different plays
(00:49):
on a Sunday, okay, But because this is a mini
Sunday with three games today, all standalone, all that run
into each other, I have got a bet and a
prop bet on each game, and I have a teaser
to give you guys coming up here for the podcast today.
Because the menu is a little bit stretched, and because
(01:11):
it's not a Sunday, the prop bets are going to
be shrunk down to half unit place. We're going to
bet to win a half a unit because I don't
really want to get completely exposed here, and frankly, it's
just you know I again. It's it's a Thursday. We
have games on Friday. We have a huge college slate Tomorrow,
we have a huge college slate on Saturday. We have
(01:32):
a huge slate on Sunday as well. So I don't
want to get over my skis here and blow the
week if we don't do well today. So I'm gonna
normally I'm been betting full units on the props, We're
going to shrink them down to win a half a
unit on the props coming up here for today, and
then add a plus money three game NFL teaser, which
(01:54):
is pretty cool. But before I give you the place,
let's tell you about our friends at hard Rock. If
you got have not gone and taken advantage of the
five dollars bet offer it is live. You can do
it here during this holiday weekend. We all know today
is about family, food and football, and we're going to
celebrate today with a bunch of plays. You can do
(02:14):
that at hard Rock bet five dollar bet. If it hits,
you can not only get your winnings, but you also
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Good
offer there on a holiday Thursday in the hard Rock
Stats hubs available for all the trends, streaks, and stats
if you guys want to check it out. Plus this
week on hard Rock Bet there are three fifty percent
profit boosts, one for each game here today on Thanksgiving
(02:36):
you can boost your same game, parlay you your SGP
max or and your bets will pay extra winnings. Also
new promos every day, So go and download the betting pro.
So going download the hard rock bet app and make
your first deposit two day. Okay, let's start with the
first game, Green Bay and Detroit. There's some really fascinating
(02:58):
stats here at this game that I think you have
to take into account now. One the biggest stat everyone's
going to jump on is the way that favorites have
dominated here on Thanksgiving. Favorites have historically been very profitable.
Since two thousand and four. Favorites are forty and twenty
against the spread. If you extend that to being straight up,
it's fifty one to nine straight up here on Thanksgiving
(03:21):
for favorites. Favorites of seven points are more on Thanksgiving
are twenty five and ten against the number. The Ravens
will fit that coming up here at the end of
the podcast. The Chiefs are the only team that's favored
on the road. Road favors are twenty five and one
straight up, twenty five and one straight up in on
Thanksgiving twenty and six against the spread since two thousand
(03:44):
and four. Pretty impressive. But the Lions and the Cowboys
this is a while. It's been a bit the lines in.
The Cowboys have not combined to both cover on Thanksgiving
on the same day since two thousand and one, and
they have having gone two and oh straight up plus
two and oho against the number on Thanksgiving since nineteen
(04:05):
ninety four. So keep in mind, just from a trend perspective,
there's some interesting things. Green Bay under Matt Lafleoor is
a dog for the first time this season. They faced
the Eagles in the playoffs last year lost they were
a dog. Under Matt Lafloor, green Bay has gone eighteen
six and one as a dog of three points or
(04:29):
more fourteen and four ats as a dog of more
than three points, but they aren't more than three points.
It's two and a half today, two and a half
or three depending.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
On the book.
Speaker 1 (04:38):
Laflour is the only head coach in the Super Bowl
era with a winning record as an underdog. So it
is a little bit of a difficult game to handicap
because it won. It's a divisional game. Two, both these
teams need it. Three, it's Jared Goff at home. It's Detroit,
who has been very profitable recently on Thanksgiving. Okay, it's
(05:00):
not that often that we see Detroit being on Thanksgiving,
but when the Lions are backed, and they are being
backed by the public today, the Lions have not done
well when they've been backed by the public twelve times
on Thanksgiving since two thousand and five, they're oh and
twelve straight up, oh in twelve straight up, three and
(05:20):
nine against the spread in those games. That's not what
we want here as we're going to look to come
in here. But Detroit when they're favored since two thousand
and four, they're five and one straight up and the
number being two and a half. I got to go
with the Dan Campbell trends. Under Dan Campbell, Detroit is
nineteen five and one against the number in the game
following a game which the Lions have failed to cover.
(05:41):
That's the best Ats mark since he took over in
twenty twenty one. Only you only little head of John Harbaugh,
who is also in the same spot coming up this week.
I am going to come in here and I'm going
to take the Lions here at home. I think the
home favorite kicks in. It's a small price. I think
the Lions put it together here. I'm not in love
(06:02):
with this Packers team. I'm not gonna lie. I haven't
I love them early. I have not liked what I've
seen late.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
This is a game.
Speaker 1 (06:08):
I think the Packers are gonna have a struggle with
with this. And look, I think you can bet the under.
I think the under is live, but I can't do
it with Detroit at home. I just every time I've
gone I thought about betting the under, and I think
the Lions and the under is a good play. But
I think Kooby the Lions and the over, it could
be the Packers in the under. So I just I'm
staying away from totals today because it's a funky day.
(06:30):
It's a holiday. We've seen overs hit so consistently on Thanksgiving.
We've seen it be a very profitable trend to bet totals,
and I just don't really love the idea of betting
totals today. I just I'm a little bit hesitant just
as to how things are going to go. So instead,
I'm gonna come in here. I'm going to pay the
two and a half with the Lions at home, follow
the home team trend, follow the follow the favorite trend
(06:53):
Lions minus two and a half. But on the flip side,
just in case I'm completely dead wrong about that prop,
bet cheat Sheets Josh Jacobs to go over his rushing
and receiving prop. It's an eighty percent cover probability, a
plus thirty nine ev expected value, play, a five star rating,
and it's projected to fly over the number that is
(07:16):
currently being set at for Josh Jacobs. You can shop
around here. Seventy eight and a half is pretty much
the consensus. There's some exchanges that are at seventy seven
and a half, but mostly it's seventy eight and a half.
You can find that at hard Rock bad at ESPN, bet,
at bet MGM, you find that at a bunch of
different books where you have Josh Jacobs rushing and receiving
(07:36):
prop over seventy eight and a half. And remember, take
a look at the number here at mine one eighteen.
I'm only betting it to win a half a unit Okay,
you can bet it full unit if you want, not
only betting half a unit. I think Josh Jacobs is
a big game here against this Lions defense, posts, catching
and receiving.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
He is cleared to play. He is good to go.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
Josh Jacobs over seventy eight and a half rushing and
receiving yards at minus one eighteen and that's a ero
point six unit play to win a half unit. Coming back,
game number two, it's the Cowboys and the Chiefs. There
are some wild trends going into this game here, because
you've got a Chief team that Patrick Mahomes on short
rest is nineteen and three straight up in those games.
(08:19):
Mahomes and the Chiefs have won thirteen straight games dating
back to twenty twenty one when they're on short rest.
The Cowboys, on the other hand, things have not gone
well for them on Thanksgiving. They're two and four ATS
over the last six games on Thanksgiving. They are three
and eleven ATS over the last fourteen Thanksgivings dating back
(08:40):
to twenty eleven and eight and twelve ats on Thanksgiving
since two thousand and five. I already gave you the
favorite trends, so this is not good. The Cowboys are
one in seven against the first half spread since twenty seventeen,
and they're two and thirteen in the first half on
Thanksgiving since twenty ten. Indoors, Patrick Mahomes has been a
killer fourteen and two straight up in his NFL career.
(09:04):
He lost outright in the Super Bowl last year to
the Eagles in New Orleans and lost to the Colts
on the road back in twenty twenty two. Is the
only two games he has lost on the road. However,
Dak Prescott has started seven games on Thanksgiving. He's four
and three straight up. Not great against the number two
and five, but they're dogs. They're not normally dogs. That's
(09:26):
the thing. The Cowboys are traditionally favored by the public,
and traditionally they are catching. They're laying points, They're not
catching points. That's the big difference here. That's the hook
that I find this game to be so fascinating because
Dak Prescott since twenty twenty two has started five home
games in Dallas early in the week, meaning Thursday or Friday.
(09:48):
The Cowboys are five and oh straight up in those games.
I think the combination of the hook here at three
and a half, the combination of the Cowboys at home
on a short week, after what their defense has done
the last two weeks, and the fact that the Chiefs
have a tough time winning close games, and the Chiefs
(10:09):
have struggled in one win games in one score games.
I just think this again is another opportunity for the
Cowboys if their offense can score.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Now.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
I don't think Mahomes and company are gonna put up
a huge number here today. Okay, they're gonna score, but
not only they about twenty eight points. I think that's
going to be the number here. Twenty eight points is
what the Cowboys need to get to. I see a
lot of people betting the over. Okay, I get it,
Cowboys home games, their defense, they're not buying it.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
I've heard from multiple people.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
That this is a you know, this is a mirage
that this Cowboys team is not this good. Okay, I'm
going to back it. I've been backing the Cowboys all year.
I've been higher on the Cowboys than most. I'm combiny
and taking the Cowboys at plus three and a half.
I want the hook. You have to have the hook.
Got to have the hook at three and a half.
But the Cowboys think we'll be live to win the game.
(11:00):
Think it's gonna be the game of the day. I
think this is going to be an awesome game back
and forth. Could be the last team has the football,
could even be going to overtime. Okay, I think this
is going to be a war. Both these teams are
absolutely desperate for this win, like desperate, desperate, desperate for
this win. And I think we're gonna see an awesome
football game coming up here between Dallas and the Chiefs.
I'll take the points home dog on Thanksgiving. Yes, Cowboys
(11:21):
plus three and a half. If it's wrong, it's wrong
prop bet that I want to get into Xavier Worthy
and this shouldn't stun anybody given what we've seen out
of this secondary but Xavier Worthy prop bet chi Ici
loves him from a rushing receiving prop to go over
forty five and a half rushing and receiving yards seventy
three percent cover probability. It's a plus thirty seven expected
value play. It's a five star play up against the
(11:43):
Cowboys defense that has well, let's be honest, give it
up a bunch of yards running and receiving for receivers.
Last week against Indiana against Indianapolis rather sorry Indianapolis fifty
nine for Xavier Worthy. This number hasn't been hit except
last week against Indianapolis. He hasn't done a great job
with this twenty five yards receiving three yards rushing against Denver,
(12:05):
twenty three, twenty three yards receiving three yards rushing against
against the Broncos. But he's expected to have a big,
big weapon, a big day today for this offense. Prop
bet cheat sheet five star play. Let's go with it,
Xavier Worthy for the Chiefs to have more than forty
(12:26):
five and a half rushing and receiving. He's off the
injury report in case you're curious, he's been cleared, so
he should be good to go.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
Here for Patrick.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
Mahomes at home in an expected high scoring game with
a lot of possessions. Bet number three to the Lake game,
we go with the return of Joe Burrow for the Bengals.
Bengal fans are so happy to see their quarterback coming back,
and look, that's a tremendous opportunity for this team to
get their quarterback back in action to actually have him
be with Chase sorry with with Chase Brown, but also
(12:56):
but with Jamar Chase and with t Higgins. But Tie
Higgins is out concussion for him, so that means a
big use is for Jamar Chase. But I think this
is going to be a big run game. I don't
think the team wants to put Joe Burrow back there
in the first game since the turf toe injury. Do
you want him throwing the ball a ton? That's why
I don't like this game. I've seen a lot of
people take the points with the Bengals. Their year is over,
(13:21):
they're not playing for anything, They're playing for next year now.
They want to play spoiler. But do you want to
risk Joe Burrow? So I'm more I think this is
going to be a conservative game plan for the Bengals.
I think they're going to be cautious here and this
lets this Ravens defense go to work. I think it
lets the offense go to work here. This number, I mean,
(13:41):
I've seen a lot of people I wouldn't take the
Bengals here. This is the Survivor special for everybody who's
still alive and the circus survivor. Everywin's who's having to
make a play. You know, the Ravens have beaten the
Bengals four straight times. They're five and one ATS over
the last six games, and the Ravens in Bengals last
nine meetings since twenty twenty one, the overs eight and one,
(14:03):
So that maybe one way of looking.
Speaker 2 (14:05):
At this game.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
We want to bet the over, but you know, Joe
Burrow has not done well against Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson
is six and one straight up in four and three
against the spread, and that's with a healthy Joe Burrow,
not an unhealthy Joe Burrow. Ravens have won five games
in a row here. You know, they opened up the
year they lost four straight in one in five and
(14:25):
they've turned it around since nineteen ninety. According to the
Action Network, teams that are on a five plus game
straight up winning streak with a percentage that's below five
and a half are just seven and twelve straight up
and six twelve and one against the spread. But this
is a unique year for the Baltimore Ravens. Favorites in
the night game on Thanksgiving is fourteen and four ATS
(14:49):
since the holiday was adopted for the three game fourmat
back in two thousand and six. I think that's the
best trend. That's the best number here. I'll lay it
with the Ravens. I think we're going to see a
pretty much a I don't want to say a blowout,
but I like Baltimore to win and cover Baltimore minus
seven for one point one units. And along those same lines,
prop bet cheat sheet likes this, and I'm gonna follow
(15:10):
the fact that Joe Burrow is not going to be
asked to throw the ball thirty eight times today. You
can find thirty seven and a half at a variety
of books at hard Rock Bet and bet MGM. I
just don't think they're going to put him back there
that many times. I don't think it's worth it. I
don't think it's safe to do that with this injury.
It's a turf toe. I mean, you can re injure
this thing pretty easily, and that derails everything about having
(15:33):
him come back. So I'm going to come in and
take a Joe Burrow under thirty seven and a half
passing attempts today at minus one fifteen. Again, we're betting
that to win just a half a unit. And the
teaser today is different than normal. It's a three leg
seven point teaser. It's plus money, it involves all three teams,
(15:55):
all three games. And we're going to take a seven
point number and we're going to and tease the Packers. Okay,
up to ten, find the three, tease it to ten,
Packers plus ten. Take the Cowboys from three and a
half and tease them up to ten and a half.
(16:15):
One score games. That's what the that's what the Chiefs play.
So either side Cowboys win or Chiefs win, but they'll
win by more than ten. Chiefs plus ten and a half.
And take the Ravens from seven down to a pick
and the Ravens win the game. You can do a
six point teaser, but I want and get better prices.
But when it gets to nine, I'm a little bit
(16:36):
hesitant about the Lions and the Packers. I'm gonna be honest. Okay,
nine worries me a little bit. I want ten. I
want that ten. And since we're doing three legs, we
can be a little bit greedy on this and take
it to plus ten and it's plus one twenty.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
So you can play around with this if you want.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
There's no long teaser, there's no like formulaic type of
breakdown for this. For me, this is just I want
ten for the Packers on the road against the Lions.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
So they don't get shredded.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
And it's plus money, so it's just a one unit
play at plus one twenty where you have action, you know,
multiple bets going and I'm kind of thread the needle
a bit as well. Lay the two and a half
with the Lions, take the Packers up to ten to ten,
and have the game fall six, seven, eight, somewhere in
that range.
Speaker 2 (17:19):
And that's why I think it's possible as long as
the Lions don't.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
If the Lions blow out, the Packers were covered with
the Lions miss two and a half, so we're covered there.
So it's a one unit play, it's mins one ten.
So it's a little bit of a because I don't
fully know what's going to happen with that Packers Lions game.
Let's have it be a Packers win by set, but
by a Lions win by seven. That would be perfect
that were to happen, and then we go to the
(17:42):
Cowboy game and if it all rolls to the Ravens
and then if you have you know, the Cowboys cover
the ten and a half and the Packers covered ten.
It's much similar to what happened yesterday where we went
two and two, and if you guys remember I don't
actually didn't put that slide up. I'm sorry about that.
But Tennessee law like I thought they could to Kansas, right,
I said, go ahead and get involved with Kansas. So
(18:04):
you should have been able to hedge off that because
Vandy Iowa State in Houston all one, so you should
be able to hedge off of that. Andrew Nemhart came
in the over one and a half goals came in
for Vegas and Ottawa Pistons went down. My Celtics snapped
the streak, so it was two and two down point one.
It was like a nothing day. So we completely wash
of a day yesterday. But very similarly, if we're rolling
(18:25):
all the way to the night game and we cover
the first two legs of the teaser and we go
into the Ravens with a pick, if at any point,
you know, the number gets to be completely ridiculous and
it's you know, the Ravens are up big, up by
ten fourteen points at one point, well then you can
come in potentially and bet the bet the Bengals to
guarantee your self profit to make sure you don't lose
(18:47):
in cases a crazy comeback so you should be able
to do something and work off that number. If we
get to the end and it's just a money line
play on the Ravens. If there's ever an issue, the
game is tight late, if it goes to overtime, whatever
might be, you should be able to play off of it.
So much similar to yesterday, if you played that parlay,
this is a teaser parlay. If you have a chance
to play off of it, pay attention and if you get
(19:09):
the first two legs, no, you've got that night game in.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
Order to play off of it.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
So big card for us here today on a Thanksgiving
holiday recapping Lions minus two and a half full unit play,
Josh Jacobs over seventy eight and a half rushing receiving
yards half unit play, Cowboys plus three and a half
full unit play, Savior Worthy over forty five and a
half rushing receiving yards half unit play, Ravens laying seven
(19:36):
full unit play, Joe Burrow under thirty seven and a
half passing attempts half unit play. The teaser is Packers
seven point teaser of the Packers plus ten, Cowboys plus
ten and a half and the Ravens on the money line.
It's a plus one twenty bet. You can tease around
with that. Again, I want ten to that Packers game.
That's why I'm not doing a six point teaser. I'm
(19:56):
doing a ten point teaser because i want that plus ten.
As always, when it comes to those teasers, check your
house rules. Do not be betting out a book that
cause you to lose, lose a teaser if you push. Okay,
check the house rules. You do not want to lose
that plus ten. If the lines win by ten and
(20:18):
that bet becomes a loser, do not bet that there.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Okay, just don't bet it.
Speaker 1 (20:22):
It has to be a push if it falls at ten,
and that would either change the bet to be a
two leg teaser or avoid.
Speaker 2 (20:30):
The entire bet.
Speaker 1 (20:32):
Either way, it's fine, But having to be a loser
at plus ten, that's the problem. That's what we don't
want to get into. My name is Matt Pereltz. Have
a great Thanksgiving. Thank you for watching, thank you for listening.
We're back tomorrow for a Black Friday, another day, another
day of big football, collegeen Pro Huge day tomorrow, Huge
day today. Enjoy the day with your family. We're back tomorrow.
(20:54):
But as always, even on holidays, wherever you guys get
your podcasts, it is the Daily Juice
Speaker 2 (21:03):
ND Gifts, Deser
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