Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
Hey guys. How are you welcome into a Tuesday morning
episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Parolt.
You guys can follow me across all of my socials
at Sports Talk Matt, and we are back after a
winning day wearing the Patriots hat. About to go full
Homer on us here for the Daily Juice, but there's
some logic behind it, so it's not completely nuts. It
(00:36):
is time for a totals Tuesday. I've not done one
of these in a while. Let's spice this up a
little bit. Three games, three sports, three totals to bet
here for today on a Tuesday. In one future play
that I have made here for tonight that's going to
be the Super Bowl. I'm going to explain here in
(00:57):
just one second. But before we get into the games
and the picks for today, let's remind you that this
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deposit to day. Okay, let's start with the future and
(02:22):
then we'll get into some other stuff, but first and foremost,
over forty six comes in for the Patriots. A little
bit of a sweat there when we got there, A
little bit of a sweat on treveon Henderson, over eighty
and a half rushing and receiving. When we got that,
that was the play of the day, so we cashed that.
Tracy got hurt. I think he might have hit it.
I mean he was. He was trending in the right
(02:43):
direction for us to hit that, and that was just
one of those like you know, it's football and like
you get kind of you get injuries. Tracy wound up
with thirty six yards rushing and negative three yards receiving,
so he didn't come close. But the injury he did
hurt him, so maybe he would have gotten there confused
running the ball pretty effectively there for a little bit.
(03:04):
So we didn't get that right. But okay, let's talk
about this. The Patriots go into the bye with an
eleven win start, eleven wins out of thirteen games. They
have won ten consecutive games. They are pounding bad teams,
I will give you that, and that is why the
market has not responded to the Patriots in giving them
(03:27):
the respect in the market that they deserve. The Patriots
are eleven to one to win the Super Bowl. Think
about this for a second. They're eleven and two. They
lost in Week one, they lost in Week three, and
they have not lost since. They go to the buy
(03:48):
this week they're off. Do they look tired? Do they
look like a team that needs to stop playing football?
And in fact, I'm mad that they are having to
stop play football, to be quite honest. But they get
two weeks to prepare for the Buffalo Bills. Do you
now know what that game will be? That game is
going to be what's called a hat and T shirt
(04:09):
game in New England. That game is for the division.
It's for the division. It is insane to say that
that the Patriots are going to be playing this early
for the division against a really good team in the
Buffalo Bills. Okay, I'm not going to I'm not gonna
(04:30):
like this, but it is crazy. The Patriots were not
thought to be the best team in the AFC, they
weren't thought to be even real contenders in the AFC.
But they are. And Drake May today this morning wakes
up as the odds on favorite to win the MVP.
Matthew Stafford is plus one thirty and Drake May is
(04:51):
minus one twenty five or so, depending on the book.
But he's got a pretty big lead, about a fifty
cent lead on Matthew Stafford for the Why are the
Patriots eleven to one to win the Super Bowl, Like,
just serious question. That number doesn't make sense. Eleven to
one doesn't make sense. They get the one seed, they're
(05:14):
gonna win their division, and they don't have to play
the Chiefs the Broncos do. The Broncos must play the Chargers,
the Patriots don't. The Patriots play the Bills. If they
win that game, they win the division. They play the
Ravens the next week on the road, which will be
a tough game and maybe they might lose that game.
(05:36):
It's a mite. But then they play against the Dolphins,
they play against the Jets. The Patriots haven't lost a
division game yet. They're three and oh in the division.
Though probably if they beat the Bills, they're gonna run
the table in the division. They're gonna go six to
oh in the division. So what's their record? Like, seriously,
what do you think the record's gonna wind up being.
(05:56):
It looks like it's gonna be a fourteen to three
season for the Patriots, even still the market doesn't believe it.
But at eleven to one, how do we not jump
in on this? This is just a numbers play. Like again,
they go to the by they have two weeks to
prepare for a hat and t shirt game. Well, the
Bills have to go and play and find it's a
(06:19):
game that they're going to win. But they're still playing football.
They're still out there getting bumped and bruised, and they're
still having to play. And then they go to Foxborough
to play the Patriots while they're saying at home preparing
for the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen, the Patriots didn't
just beat the Giants last night. They beat up the
Giants last night. I haven't seen that level of smacked
(06:42):
down from a Patriot defense since probably two thousand and one.
I mean, this is all coming back, This is all like,
this is all coming back. Call me a Homer all
you want, Okay, But from a gambling perspective, that number
is not right. Okay, that number just don't I don't
understand how you go. The Patriots should be eleven to
(07:04):
one dogs or eleven to one to win the Super Bowl,
behind a lot of teams in the you know, a
lot of teams in the NFC, Okay, And I'm just
you know, looking at the odds, Rams, Seahawks, Packers, Eagles,
(07:24):
those teams are all ahead of the Patriots. So nine
to one, nine one, eight fifty four, sixty four to
fifty Rams, Seahawks, Packers, Eagles, those four teams are all ahead.
Patriots are number one option for the AFC, and frankly,
the Broncos being twelve to one is equally disrespectful. To
be quite honest, I just think the Patriots have a
(07:45):
better chance to get in the one seed than the
Broncos do. And I don't think bo Knicks can win
a playoff game on the road. I'm just not sold
on bo Nicks on the road in the postseason. So
at home, if the Broncos are the one seed, Broncos
will be a very difficult out for anybody. Patriots, I
doubt will win the game. We'll win at win at Denver.
(08:05):
So whoever wins the one seed, it's probably Patriots and
the Broncos. Whichever is the team at home, that's the
team that's going to win. But I'm taking it eleven
to one. You can come back take the Broncos twelve
to one. I don't hate it at all. But if
the Pats get to the Super Bowl, we're hedging, Okay,
we're clearly betting against them, and we're gonna hedge, but
we'll guarantee profit and we'll have a really easy Super Bowl. Okay,
(08:29):
it's time to start building the portfolios and starting to
look at where these teams are. So you know, you
want to take the Broncos twelve to one. Not bad.
We might even do that later in the week. Okay,
but tonight, Patriots eleven to one. One unit take the
Patriots to win the Super Bowl here at eleven to one. Now,
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for details. Okay, let's start totals Tuesday. Start in the NBA.
(10:58):
You got a game on Peacock late night tonight out
in the western part of the country where the Oklahoma
City Thunder will take on the Golden State Warriors. Now,
Oksee has just been mauling people, like just straight up
mauling people. They're twenty and one on the year. Okay,
like just bonkers. They are ten and one on the road.
(11:18):
They are ten and zero at home. The Warriors are
eleven and ten. No Steph Curry for this. You got
a little bit of a banged up Jimmy Butler, but
it looks like he's probably going to play. Warriors have
been feisty at home though. They're seven and two at
home this season. Now again, Thunder ten and one on
the road. But let's look at the total being two
(11:39):
to twenty one and a half OKA, see, which is
kind of wild. They're eleven and ten to the over
on the year, that's not amazing. They're six and five
to the over on the road, four five and four
to the under for a golden state. In fact, their
last two games against New Orleans and Houston both went
under by twenty eight and a half and twenty and
a half. Utah at home went over by by eleven
(12:02):
and a half. Against Portland it went over by thirteen
and a half. And because of those two games going
so far under, I think we're getting a depressed number
here of two twenty one and a half. If you
look at the totals for Oklahoma City, normally they're in
the two thirties, two thirty three and a half to
twenty three. I guess for that game two twenty six,
two thirty four and a half, two thirty four and
(12:23):
a half, two thirty two and a half. It is.
Typically we're talking about numbers in the lower two thirties.
This number is in the lower and it really load's
two twenty one and a half. You have to go
all the way back to the Clippers on the fourth
of November where they're on the road at LA and
it was two nineteen and a half. To find a
total lower than this one at two twenty one and
(12:44):
a half. I just think from a Warrior perspective, they
play they play better at home, they shoot better at home,
and I think you can look at the over here
in this game. For OKC they're averaging one twenty two
and a half points per game. That's third best. Golden
State is averaging one fourteen and a half points. That's
you know, towards the end. But you know, defensively, Okaysee
(13:05):
has been great one o six and a half, one
of six point seven, that's number one. Defensively, Warriors been
one thirteen point six, that's seventh best. But I think
we see this number, it gets been a little bit
too low for these teams. Without Jimmy Butler being full strength,
without Steph Curry out there at full strength, a couple
of nick bumps and bruises for Okay See. Nothing crazy.
(13:27):
Hartenstein's questionable, Alice Caruso is questionable, but Curry is out,
Horford is out for the Warriors, and Jimmy Butler is
a touch banged up, but I think we get pace,
I think we get offense. I think the Warriors fight
and get scrappy. Here tots eleven and a half. You
can bet the dog if you want. Instead, I'm just
gonna go ahead and take the over two twenty one
(13:48):
and a half for the Warriors and the thunder here
tonight in the NBA to the NHL. We go tonight
with Vancouver on the road up against Colorado. This you
can do a first period over if you want. In
this game. Vancouver is eight and two over the last
ten games to a first period over. Colorado is six
(14:10):
and four, But they're fifty six percent, and I'm just
a little bit hesitant to jump in on the first
period over for this. You can bet a gift goal
in the first ten minutes. Colorado seventy two percent of
the time in their games are getting a goal in
the first ten minutes. Eight of the last ten games
goal in the first ten minutes. Vancouver seven and three
over their last ten or last ten for a goal
(14:34):
in the first ten minutes, But it's like one sixty
and one fifty for gift in first period overs. It's
just not really one I want to get into it's
really you know, I'm making a bunch of players tonight
and I don't like the juice. It's too heavy on
the juice for me at the moment to come in
and jump on that. So instead I want to take
a look at Vancouver for the game. The Canucks on
(14:58):
the road are nine to five and one to the over.
At home this year, Colorado has been sort of a
wishy washy back and forth. They're five to five and
one to the over at home, kind of flat over
the last ten games. At home, Colorado is five and five.
They're just sort of the same type of thing. But
on the road, Vancouver is seven and three to the over.
(15:19):
We've seen early goals, we've seen you goals giving up,
and then we look at the goaltenders coming up here
for tonight and I like what we're seeing out of
a goaltending perspective. I think we you know, in terms
of who we want in net. Lankan in eh the
he was in net in a meeting between these teams,
two teams about three weeks ago, so was Mackenzie Blackwood,
(15:40):
and we wound up seeing a bunch of goals in
that game. It was a five to four game here
between these teams, it was five to four. It was
a yeah, five to four win for Colorado on the road.
In that game. We see a lot of offense here.
For the Vancouver Canucks, they play wide open. I think
(16:00):
we'll play wide open as well. Again, if you don't
want to the full game, you can come in and bet,
you know, the first period over if you want. It
was two to one Colorado after one in that meeting.
But the Avalanche at home have been absolutely awesome. They're
eighteen to one and six, by the way, overall, only
one loss in regulation for Colorado so far this year.
But they're ten zho and two at home. They haven't
(16:22):
lost a game at home yet. Vancouver is seven to
six and two, but you know, seven to two, three
to two, shutout six nothing in the last three games.
Two and one to the over. I guess it'll be
six and a half, would be one and two to
the under. But they're scoring here a lot. In the
last two home games, they've scored thirteen goals for Colorado.
(16:43):
That's good offense here. I don't love Lankening with a
three point five goals against average, and Lankning, as I
said in the game, you know, on the road he
has a two point eighty six goals against average. He's
worse at home, but against the Avalanche back on the
ninth of November, he gave up five goals and a
five to four overtime loss. Let's go ahead and bet
(17:06):
the over here for Colorado in Vancouver over six and
a half at minus one ten and one college basketball
game to talk about. It's Duke in Florida. This is
gonna be a fun game at Cameron Indoor Stadium here.
KEMPOM has this as a win for Duke, an eight
point win for Duke. I don't really like to get
(17:26):
involved the number seven and a half. I don't really
want to get involved with the side, but I think
the total is a better play to look at this.
So it's one forties, it's one fifty six at kempom,
which is pretty much right where we're looking at this.
But we're talking about a very good offense for Duke,
top five offense for Duke here in this one. You've
(17:47):
got a Duke defense. It's been pretty good. Florida's defense
has been okay. But I think we'll see some tempo
here between these teams going back and forth I think
three point shooting will come into play here. Florida has
not been great at shooting the rock this year. I
think they got to get going here offensively, three and
twentieth in three point shooting. The guard play simply has
(18:09):
not been there for Florida. But they have one of
the best front courts in the entire country, and they
rebound the basketball really well. They hit their two point shots,
they get to their free throw line. They're okay, middle
of the pack from a free throw line perspective. But
for Duke, they shoot their third best and two point
shooting their top seventy and three point shooting. Their offensive
(18:29):
adjusted efficiency is fifth best in the country, effective field
goal percentage is thirteenth best in the country. And really
turnover wise, Florida doesn't turn you over at all. I
think Duke will have an opportunity to score a bunch.
I like the over in this game. I think we
get paced, I think we get offense. I think we
get shooting between these two teams. I'm gonna come in
here and play the over for Florida and Duke over
(18:51):
one fifty six and half, which is pretty much where
m Palm has this all right, So four plays for
US here on Tuesday. Totals Tuesday of Warriors, Thunder over
to twenty one and a half, Vancouver, Colorado over six
and a half, and Florida and Duke over one fifty
six and a half. In the future, play for the
Patriots to win the Super Bowl at eleven to one
(19:14):
for one unit. My name is Matt Parolt. You guys
can follow me across all my socials at Sports Talk
Matt every morning where every you guys get your podcasts.
It is the Daily Juice