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November 12, 2025 • 17 mins

Another slow start to the week for host Matt Perrault who went 1-2 on his plays for Tuesday. Matt is back with 4 bets in 3 sports for the Wednesday episode of the Daily Juice presented by Hard Rock Bet. 

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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:15):
Hey guys.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
How are you welcome into a Wednesday morning episode of
the Daily Juice podcast.

Speaker 1 (00:18):
My name is Matt Peralte.

Speaker 2 (00:19):
You guys can follow me across all of my socials
at Sports Talk Matt, and we are back after a
one and two day. Look, here's where we are. Okay,
both college basketball bets went down. Both favorites came in
flying easily covering I'm going to pause college basketball. Okay,

(00:40):
So I am clearly and this is look we're going
to make in the neighborhood of like sixty to seventy
bets this college basketball season. So we're off to a
rough start. I think it's a one in six start
in college basketball.

Speaker 1 (00:53):
I think that's right.

Speaker 2 (00:55):
So clearly the numbers are all over the place. It's
been a very turvy starts in this season. Kempalm has
had four different number one teams in his rankings to
start the year. Gonzaga looked like a top five team
last night. They looked incredible. Louisville's guards are great, Kentucky's

(01:17):
gonna be good too. But I mean, how many missed
free throws does Louisville want to make? I mean, we
were right there to cover if Kentucky could just hit
a couple of threes there we would have covered.

Speaker 1 (01:28):
So I'm gonna pause with what we're talking about.

Speaker 2 (01:31):
So the bummer part of what's happened over the last
month and a half is that we are now we've
eaten pretty good into.

Speaker 1 (01:37):
We were up.

Speaker 2 (01:38):
The high point for the season for the year for
twenty five was forty three units. I believe we were
up forty three units for twenty five. We have cut
deeply into that we're down to twenty four units being up.
And so here's my worry. I have to finish up
higher for the year. I have to finish up more
than twenty units because last year we lost twenty units.

(02:00):
So in order to make up for what happened in
twenty four to lose twenty and I got to win
more than twenty and then the podcast is profitable over
the last twenty four months, which is something I have
really wanted to do because I'd be very proud of
myself because betting every day and being profitable over two
years straight.

Speaker 1 (02:21):
Is not easy to do.

Speaker 2 (02:23):
I know you guys love to parachute in and cherry
pick and talk trash and do your thing, but I
don't see you guys doing what I am doing.

Speaker 1 (02:30):
Okay, So this is not easy.

Speaker 2 (02:32):
It is as much a mental game as it is
an actual like work game for me.

Speaker 1 (02:38):
But we have time. We can still finish way up
on the year.

Speaker 2 (02:41):
But just that's kind of give you a barometer of
where we're at here for twenty twenty five, we're up
twenty four units.

Speaker 1 (02:48):
We have been ice cold.

Speaker 2 (02:49):
We have definitely cut dramatically into what we did earlier
in the year, which is not that surprising, to be
frank most people in October and November these are the
really difficult months to win, so especially when you're betting
every day and you're betting multiple sports and you can't
just focus on one sport. The books have multiple guys
on one sport and we're trying to beat them here,

(03:11):
you know, bouncing around it's tough. But when I am cold,
what do I do well?

Speaker 1 (03:16):
I bet unders.

Speaker 2 (03:17):
So here we go with four bets, four unders to
give you guys coming up here for two day. Let's
see if we can have a bounce back Wednesday before
we go back to betting. NFL football coming up, and
NFL football has been pretty good. I mean I actually
haven't checked our record here for the NFL.

Speaker 1 (03:34):
We've actually gotten.

Speaker 2 (03:35):
Off to a pretty good start, or have had a
pretty good half of the year for us so far
with the NFL. So we are sixty and forty six
up eight point one nine units, and the NFL props
are twenty four and seventeen up three point five units.

Speaker 1 (03:52):
But we made it. We made a change with the
NFL props.

Speaker 2 (03:55):
We haven't been tracking the NFL props for the Daily
Juice because those are given out on the live stream,
So unless I give them out on here, we don't
count them for the Juice. I've done pretty well on
the live stream, but because not everybody watches the same
amount of content, we decided just to like all the
plays given out on this podcast, that's what we're tracking.

(04:16):
And anything else that we talk about on the Tuesday
show with Pat fitz Morris and myself, or the show
that we do on Sunday mornings for the live stream,
or the Discord channel chat that we do on Saturday mornings,
those aren't going to count for a Daily Juice record.
Just the bets on the Daily Juice podcast, that's what
we're going to count for the Daily Juice record. So
I haven't had NFL props out for a bit, but

(04:38):
if you guys like betting props, you need to check
out the prop bet cheat sheet.

Speaker 1 (04:43):
Have you done so.

Speaker 2 (04:44):
The NBA, Well, I think I've shown to you guys
by this point. Okay, it's crushing. I got two more
for you coming up here today. The prop bet cheat
sheet has been tremendous, so for me, if you want
to talk about what I have done for the NBA
p bet cheat sheet in twenty twenty five, since we're
talking about numbers as much and what we've done, my

(05:05):
personal plays are now sixty nine and thirty six with
the prop bet cheat sheet in twenty twenty five, I
am up fifteen point seventy five, so sixteen units basically
sixteen units. I'm hitting at a sixty six percent clip
for the prop bet cheat sheet with NBA player props.

(05:27):
It's pretty it's my best sport. It's my best you know,
it's by far in terms of percentages. Being sixty six
percent is absolutely wild from a betting perspective, and that's
what I'm doing using the prop bet cheat sheet.

Speaker 1 (05:42):
You guys should do so as well.

Speaker 2 (05:44):
You can see top player prop picks based on projections
in sportsbook lines. It's updated with daily recommendations for points, rebounds, assists,
and more. Last season, the four and five star plays
for unders were up almost seven hundred units. Bettingpros dot
com slash NBA props. That's Bettingpros dot Com slash NBA

(06:05):
Props or download the Betting Pros app to start cashing
in today.

Speaker 1 (06:09):
So, speaking of unders.

Speaker 2 (06:11):
With prop bets from the propbet cheat sheet, let's start
with a five star play involving Grayson Allen of the
Phoenix Suns. They're playing at the Dallas Mavericks coming up
here for tonight. This is something I like that the
prop bet cheat sheet is doing. Grayson Allen against the
New Orleans Pelicans in his last game had a historic

(06:33):
game points in rebounds forty four.

Speaker 1 (06:38):
He had forty four points.

Speaker 2 (06:39):
In rebounds last time out. That was by far his
best game in like forever. He was unbelievable for the
Suns in his last game out. So the prop bet
cheat sheet now is turning around and fading Grayson Allen.
This bet has a seventy five percent cover probability. This

(07:02):
is an expected value of plus thirty eight and this
is a play after Grayce Allen scored forty two points
on ten of fifteen to three point shooting and eight
of ten from the foul line, two rebounds, four assists,
three steals in a one twenty one to ninety eight
win over the Pelicans.

Speaker 1 (07:21):
Career game, he.

Speaker 2 (07:23):
Set the record in the Sun's franchise history for three
point shots made in a single game. The forty two
was also a career high for Allen, as he will
start for Jalen Green.

Speaker 1 (07:35):
Tonight, who is sidelined.

Speaker 2 (07:37):
Prop bet Chichi's looking at the number of twenty and
a half and saying, Okay, that's not going to happen again.

Speaker 1 (07:43):
Why because Grace and Allen, if you.

Speaker 2 (07:45):
Go back to the twenty ninth of October points in rebounds, seventeen,
twenty one, twenty twenty, twenty one and fourteen before he
wound up with forty four in his last game, that's
the anomala. We're gonna go under twenty and a half
for Grayson Allen points and rebounds here for tonight, Grayson

(08:08):
Allen under twenty and a half points and rebounds for
one point one point eight units. Second bet again off
the prop bit cheat sheet again a five star play
just like the Grayson Allen play. This is a seventy
seven percent cover probability plus forty percent expected value that
is the top expected value for EV and a five

(08:29):
star play. Duncan Robinson points and rebounds under seventeen and
a half points and rebounds for Duncan Robinson. So, Duncan Robinson,
if you go back to games since the third of November,
has had fifteen, eleven, eight, eighteen.

Speaker 1 (08:48):
And sixteen.

Speaker 2 (08:50):
He's gone over seventeen and a half points and rebounds
just once. This number is set at seventeen and a
half for Duncan Robinson, and he went over against Philadelphia,
a team that's not playing great defense at the moment.
They're winning games Philly is, but they're not playing outstanding defense.
Four of the last five games four Duncan Robinson. This

(09:13):
has gone under under seventeen and a half points and
rebounds on this season. It's six and five this bet,
but for a seventy seven percent cover probability and a
five star play. Here with Duncan Robinson of the Pistons
at home against the Bulls, We're gonna jump on it here.

(09:33):
Brop bit chee chee legs it five star play Duncan
Robinson under seventeen and a half points and rebounds at
minus one twenty two greats and Allen under points in
rebounds at twenty.

Speaker 1 (09:44):
And a half.

Speaker 2 (09:45):
Duncan Robinson under seventeen and a half points and rebounds.

Speaker 1 (09:49):
Now to the college football.

Speaker 2 (09:50):
Play of the day, to the MAC, to my school.
I am a proud you. Mass Graduate football is a joke.
This game's at home. UMass is part of the MAC
and they get a home game on a Wednesday. Who
is going to this No one's gonna be at this game.

(10:11):
Who's going to a football game in November in Amherst,
Massachusetts at the worst stadium in college football, William McGirk Stadium.
I bet it's the same sins I was there in
the late nineties. I'm guessing the press box is probably
the same press box that I was calling games in
in nineteen ninety eight when the UMass Minutemen won the

(10:33):
one double A FCS whatever you want to call it,
national championship. Yes, that happened. UMass won the national championship
one year. How Mark Whipple. If you're a football geek,
you know who Mark Whipple is. But Mark Whipple head coach.
Awesome offense, Marcel's ship remember him, He was the running

(10:54):
back for UMass.

Speaker 1 (10:55):
He went pro. He had a cup of coffee in
the NFL for a while. Says nobody like that right now.

Speaker 2 (11:02):
U Mass stinks, and I mean they stink, But Northern
Illinois is not much better.

Speaker 1 (11:07):
How about these offenses.

Speaker 2 (11:09):
Northern Illinois is averaging eleven point four points per game.
That's one hundred and thirty fifth in college football in
FBS college football. U Mass is worse. They're averaging nine
point five points per game. That's one hundred and thirty
sixth in college basketball. Defensively, Northern Illinois is giving up
twenty five points per game. U Mass is giving up

(11:31):
thirty eight points per game. I mean, this is an
unbelievably bad football game on so many levels. There are
so many bad things that can happen here in this game.
But you look at the point spread and you could say, well,
U Mass is six and three to the over, Northern
Illinois is six and three to the under.

Speaker 1 (11:49):
You Mass.

Speaker 2 (11:50):
Though, offensively, here's what they have scored so far this
year ten thirteen twenty one six three six seven twenty
six ten at home This year, they've scored ten somehow.
They scored twenty six against Bryant, which is not a
football school. Western Michigan they scored three Buffalo, they scored

(12:12):
twenty one somehow, And every other game on the road
has been.

Speaker 1 (12:16):
Brutal for Northern.

Speaker 2 (12:18):
They just scored three points against Toledo, twenty one points
against Ball State, twenty one points against Ohio, ten points
against Eastern Michigan, fourteen points against Miami of Ohio, three
points against San Diego State, ten points against Mississippi State,
nine points against Maryland, and nineteen points against Holy Cross.
Their defenses aren't good, but these offenses are absolutely abysmal.

(12:42):
The number is forty three and a half. It's a Wednesday.

Speaker 1 (12:46):
It's going to be a depressed environment as long as
we're not getting a lot of turnovers with pick sixes
and fumble recoveries for touchdowns. As long as that's what happens,
this game is going under. Not a lot of offense,
a lot of fun.

Speaker 2 (13:00):
We're playing the under for UMass and NIU under forty
three and a half at minus one ten in the
MAC for Action. Now I have won more bet for you.
It is time for the hard rock bet of the day.
The hard rock bet of the day is two and oh.
I've hit the first two of these. Okay, let's see

(13:24):
if I can hit another one for us another bet
that we can jump in on. This game is a
hockey game, so the New Jersey Devils is The Devils.

Speaker 1 (13:37):
Tonight are.

Speaker 2 (13:40):
On the road against the Blackhawks. Chicago's three to two
and one at home. The Devils are four to four
and one, sorry four four and oh on the road.
But I don't want to look to the full game.
I want to look to the first period, specifically the
first period under The Devils have gone over just six

(14:02):
times in their fifteen games. That's forty percent. The Blackhawks
have gone over seven times in the first period over
one and a half goals just forty one, sorry, forty
three percent of the time. These two teams are facing
off here tonight, and you look at the offenses and
the way these teams have played. We're talking about five
to one, four nothing, five to two in the last

(14:24):
three games for the Blackhawks, all wins. The Devils are
two to one in the last three games, three to
two overnight overtime win or sorry, over time loss, excuse me,
two to one shutout in a four to three overtime win.
So sorry shootout two one shootout win and a four
to three overtime win. These teams both have seen a

(14:47):
first period over in their last game, but going into that,
both these teams were on a pretty good clip for
first period unders. It sounds like, according to sp it's
going to be the backup goaltenders, which is not horrible.
Mark Strum's not been bad two and one for a
first period under same record for the Devil's here in

(15:10):
the month of November two and one to a first
period under Soda Balloon has been very good. He's four
and one over the last five games. To a first
period under Soda Blood has been good. He has a
two point six to three year goals against average. He's
a two two and one record. If it is night,
it's even better, okay, And if it's allan, it's even better.

Speaker 1 (15:27):
So I don't hate that it's the backups to just
give up one goal.

Speaker 2 (15:30):
It's probably gonna be Mark Strum gives up the one goal,
but Markshum's not horrible in the first period, and Soda
Bloom has been pretty good. If it is the ones
and it's allan against night. I like to bet even
more here for a first period under. This game's on
TN T. It's the late game on T and T,
but you get a nationally televised game here, so some
extra juice early. These guys, knowing who's gonna be paying

(15:52):
attention national audience watching this, we're gonna go under first
period to the under for the hard Rock bet of
the day, New Jersey and Chicago. First period under one
and a half goals is an even money play for
one units. You guys know at this point that our
friends at hard Rock they are the title sponsor of

(16:13):
the Daily Juice podcast. There is so much going on
right now, so many good things to take a crack at,
Pro football, NBA, college football, college hoops, and hockey. Like
we know, if you haven't used the first bet option
five dollars bet if it hits you get the winnings
in one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Great

(16:35):
time to do so. The hard Rock Bet stat Hub
is also awesome for trend streaks and stat w guide
your picks. Hard Rock Sports Book is the only legal
sports book in Florida. It's also live in Arizona, Ohio.
New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, and Colorado, New States
coming online all the time, Plus hard Rock Bet offers
new promos every single day. Download the hard rock Bet
app and make your first deposit to day. Okay, our

(17:01):
plays today, four of them, four unders. Let's see what
we can do here on a Wednesday. Grayson Allen under
twenty and a half points and rebounds, Duncan Robinson under
seventeen and a half points and rebounds, UMass NIU College
Football maction under forty three and a half, and the

(17:21):
Devils and the Blackhawks first period under one and a
half goals that at even money for one unit. My
name is Matt Parolf. You guys can follow me across
all my socials at sports doock Matt every morning wherever
you guys get your podcasts.

Speaker 1 (17:35):
It is the Daily Juice.
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