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October 1, 2024 25 mins

Jomboy is breaking down his predictions for this year's MLB postseason, Shohei Ohtani's playoff history, and the most beat-up catcher in baseball

0:00 Intro
1:02 Predicting the playoffs
14:53 Shohei’s playoff stats
21:05 Catcher that gets beat up most

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, and welcome to Jimmy's Three Things. It is the postseason.
Wild Card week is here. Who's going to advance? Huh?
We open up with two o'clock game on a Tuesday.
I hate it, but I love postseason. I'm very excited
on Jimmy's Three Things today. I'm gonna use a very
sophisticated model to predict the winners of these wildcard series

(00:23):
and maybe the rest of the playoffs. Maybe not. Showy
Otani makes his first postseason appearance. What are we expecting there?
Just pure excitement and adrenaline. Probably how did he fare
in the postseasons in past leagues and World Baseball Classics.
We'll look into it. And then I want to look
at the catchers who have taken the biggest beating over
the course of the season. Those are the three things.
Appreciate you joining today. Jimmy's Three Things is a production

(00:46):
of Dan Patrick Productions, John Boy Media, and Workhouse Media.
I'm gonna catch my breath, take us up my coffee,
get geared up excited while I do this. Click like one, two, three,
these things coming three three.

Speaker 2 (00:58):
Things very duly indeed.

Speaker 1 (01:01):
All right, first thing, let's predict the playoffs The first
thing I did this morning because I'm gonna be working late,
is I took my son, James. He's almost three, two
years old. He you know, sometimes before school we go
on a donut adventure. That's when we go to get
a donut. Sometimes we go to the playground. That's when

(01:24):
we go to the playground. Sometimes I drive to the
parking lot by his school. We hop on the train,
we take it one stop, five minute ride, and then
we get a donut at that stop, and then we
hop on the train back five minute ride, and then
we drop him off school. That's the biggest adventure today.
He didn't he didn't even know it's the postseason. Got
no clue. He said, I want to go to baseball

(01:46):
field today. I said, okay, let's go to baseball field.
So we had ten minutes at the baseball field. It
was real muddy. The first one his feet sank into mud.
Second one, we had the ball, we had the bat.
It was before school, and I said, let's make some predictions.
So this isn't the sophisticated midel. This is just my
son's predictions for the games today. Let's see what he got.
Who's going to win the Astros or the Tigers. Wow

(02:15):
in the solid contact on that. So I'm gonna say
he's right. I disagree with him. I think Framber is
going to be a problem for this Tigers team, who
a lot of their best hitters are lefties. Even though
they're lefties hit lefties. Framber's numbers are ridiculous. Next up,
Royals or the Royals. Royals? I found out Orioles and

(02:37):
Royals very similar sounds. I don't really know. I said
Royals and he said yeah, but it sounded it could
have been Royals. Oh, Royals very similar? Yeah, here you go.
Oh again, solid contact there. If the Royals win Game
one and they beat Burns, I like him to win
the series. But or is there a better team who's

(02:59):
gonna win the or the Mets? Wow? Right now, I
thought he was gonna say Mets because it's easier to say.
As a little kid, Brewers, we got ours. I had
e roticism. Uh, he's geared down for this one. He's
got butt down, bat up, butt down, that's what we say.
And uh, ooh did you fall down? You fell slipped
and fell classic cartoon fall. I don't know what that means.

(03:22):
Maybe prediction Cadres or the Braves. Braves. Wow, here you go,
let's do that one again. So a mishit. And then
he went down and wrote that one. So that's my
son's predictions. Not sophisticated at all, And to be fairly honest,

(03:45):
the method I'm using also not I would I'm I'm
using sophisticated in a joking way. It's not whatever you'll
find out like it's kind of cool. I kind of
like it, but I just I'm trying to show you
guys stats you might not see elsewhere, and that's what
I'm gonna make my opinion on. So baseball stats are

(04:06):
something I enjoy. There's an inside edge quest. They're awesome,
and they have these stats like you can't really find
I've talked about them a lot on here. You can't
really find them that many other places. So offensively, they
have these scoring tendency stats, which I really like, especially
offensive because it's kind of the lineup's identity, team identity,

(04:26):
deep lineups, stuff like that, how do you attack as
a team. It's nine guys, it's not always the same guy.
Then they also have them for the pitching. I would
wait that less because one starting pitcher can be good
that you don't use your four and your five, you
don't use your bad bullpen. So I don't know how,
but lineup I like it anyway. They have all these things.

(04:47):
So scored first percentage. So where do teams rank? Scoring first?
And the Diamondbacks they scored first more than any other
team this year than the break and Phillies tied for second.
Mariners were fourth. Yankees. The next one is scored in
three different innings, so you score over the course of

(05:10):
the game at least one run three different innings. And
on that one, the Dodgers are one, the Braves are two,
d Backs are three. Now that doesn't mean you have
a deep lineup. It could just mean your top is
really good. Every time the top half comes up, you score,
you know, something like that, or you could just get
solo shots throughout. What I really like. My favorite one
is big innings. That means you score three runs or

(05:33):
more at least in one inning. Last postseason, it was
all about big innings. The Rangers and the d Backs
were very good at this. They would like cluster innings
like once they the Rangers just needed one inning and
you were dead. That's all they needed, Like they could
be dead, but then they would get that one inning
where they would score four runs. You'd be like, shit,
that just changed the whole game. So this is my

(05:55):
favorite one when it comes to postseason. And if you
look all the yellow teams on my screen, those are
the postseason teams. So they're all towards the top, and
a lot of these which makes sense because they're good teams.
The Brewers are the best at having the big inning.
They are the best offensively. Then the d Backs not
a postseason the Mets. We saw that yesterday in Game

(06:16):
one sixty one where they had a six run inning
to come back against the Braves. The Padres are good
at this. Yankees, Dodgers, and Orioles tied for six runs
per game. That one's pretty standard. The Diamondbacks rank out
number one here and you can see all the playoff
teams besides the Tigers, because they're bad for first two

(06:37):
thirds of the year, are down in twentieth position, but
all the rest of the playoff teams are up top
besides the Diamondbacks. That they didn't make it and then
answer back innings, Okay, your team just gave up some runs.
You gotta answer right back. Get the momentum. I like
that as well. And the Orioles are number one and
then the Yankees number two. So I did as I

(06:58):
collected all of those and way them evenly, because I'm
not smart enough to make a weighted average, and I
don't even know if you could average percentages. I don't
think you can, but this is what I'm doing so offensively.
When you weight all those out in there where they
rank the dim the Diamondbacks number one, but look, you
do get it is indicative of good teams like you

(07:18):
do get the better teams up top, which isn't crazy.
But like of these scoring tendencies, if you're good at them,
especially runs per game like that, which probably should be
weighted pretty high. I would wait big innings higher. Yeah,
how would you weight those? I would go runs per game,
big inning, because those can be demoralizing and you can
knock a starting pitcher out with a beginning or you

(07:39):
just like demoralize a bullpen. Then I would say answer back,
and three different innings are I don't know which one.
I would wait more, probably answer back, because three different
innings you could just have dud innings like blowouts there.
But answer back is important they scored. Now you score
so three different things. Would be fourth and scored first.
We fifth, but the t Backs average two point four.

(08:01):
They were first and scored first, third in three different innings,
second in beginnings, first in runs per game, and fifth
in answer back. They didn't make the postseason, but the
rest you have. The Yankees is the second, then the Dodgers,
than the Orioles, than the Phillies, and the Brewers. Red
Sox are up there, but they didn't make the postseason.

(08:21):
Twins up there, they didn't make the postseason. Red Sox
and Twins similar records. If you take out the White
Sox games, Twins would worst. I think Braves, Royals, Padres, Mets.
I even think this is clustered somewhat in like how
I think the teams are. Don't get upset Guardians fans,
but you know or how they are going in the postseason.
I probably have the Padres ranked higher than down here.

(08:42):
I think they're pretty good and the Tigers are way
down here. So that's offensively, so like what we gotta
do pitching as well. So what I'm gonna do is
I'm just gonna hide all these Let's just hide all
these rows for now and let's look. So now this
is pitching, and again I think this is tougher because
undud pitcher, your fifth pitcher staying so he could he's

(09:03):
not part of the postseason, so I don't know. But
let's just look the pitching staff that let their opponents
score first. The most was the Diamondbacks. Diamondbacks are a
tale of two teams. Offense good pitching, not good like
crazy not good. Oh no, no, no, I think this means
they're good. Yes, the Diamondbacks are great at not allowing
their opponents to score first. It's the rest of the

(09:24):
categories where you see the d Backs here are not
good in the rest of them. Braves are good at this, Phillies,
Astros are good at this a lot of the playoff teams.
The worst playoff team at this is the Guardians, then
the Orioles, then the Mets, than the Royals. They allowed
the opponent to score in three different innings. The Braves
are the best at stopping this. Then the Yankees cups

(09:47):
pretty good at stopping this. Guardians a little more spread
out in the pitching side of things, which is again
was kind of my point. All right, here we go.
This one is all, oh my god, this is all
the playoff teams, so opp big inning percentage, which I
do think is the biggest weighted thing I would have
out of all this, I would wait at the highest.
I thought it played huge last year. You have the

(10:09):
Guardians are the best at avoiding the big inning. They
were the best off season at avoiding the beginning. Then
the Mariners, who's pitching staff was amazing. And the Mariners
are the only team not in the postseason. Of the bunch,
the rest the next teams are all playoff teams, Tigers, Astros, Braves, Brewers, Royals, Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees, Padres, Orioles, Mets.

(10:29):
So that there's some sense there. All the teams that
made the postseason avoided the biginning. But the Guardians and
the Tigers are the best at that. Out of the
postseason teams, you know, worst you got the Rockies, Angels,
White Sox, Marlins, Nationals. Like, yeah, okay, so this, I
think that's stat matters more than like no one talks
about that stat. Really, I think that's stet matters. It

(10:52):
runs allowed per game. Mariners are the best, then the Braves,
they're tied. They're actually tied for first, and the worst
of all the playoff games. Orioles and Mets, Dodgers pretty
bad down there. Philly's dead bad, but runs out per game.
How good? You're good. You know you're not going to
use the guys that let up the most runs. They
get weeded out. So again, and then shut down inning. Okay,

(11:13):
your team just scored. Now you've got to shut them
down to not let them take the momentum right back.
I obviously people know shutdown innings. The Royals are the
best at this, then the Mariners, then the Braves, then
the Tigers. The worst at this is the Orioles, Brewers
and Dodgers, so they'll let you get right back into
the game if you want so. Then pitching overall, playoff

(11:35):
teams float to the top. The Braves are the best
at this, then the Royals, then the Tigers and the Yankees,
then the Astros and the Padres. All right, So then
I did overall all of the categories pitching, hitting overall,
and this is my super sophisticated formula to predict the playoffs.

(11:56):
And I did not know. I promised that the Yankees
were number one. That's awesome. I'm best record in the
American League. Okay, so if we look at this, we
have Astros and Tigers, and this has the Astros will
beat the Tigers. Because I'm going strictly off formula here.
I also think the Astros will beat the Tigers because

(12:16):
of the lefties, which you got two starting pitchers that
are lefty in a three game series, frambur and Kakuchi.
And then if you want to have a comeback, you
got hater who's a Bizarro lefty. Be cool. The Tigers
can do it, but it's tough. And then if they
my Yankees face them, it's gonna be tough over there too,
all right. So then this has the Royals way better

(12:38):
than the Orioles because of the pitching. So I would
wait it and say both the bullpens here. All right, whatever,
I'm sticking to my formula, Royals will beat the Orioles. Okay,
if I'm wrong, we'll change the formula. We'll change the formula. Sure,
we'll wait it. Someone smart's gonna have to let me
know how to wait the formula. Then you have the
Brewers and the Mets, and the Brewers are one, two, three,

(13:02):
four six, and the Mets are way down here. So
I as the Brewers beating the Mets per the formula,
and then we have the Padres and the where the
Padres playing the Braves. Damn, I don't if Jimmy was
If I was picking Jimmy talking the third person, shut up, loser,

(13:23):
If I was picking with my heart and my brain,
I would choose the Padres because I don't know how
the Braves are going to do it, because sales out.
This is where That's why I would have to wait
it algorithm, Jimmy's algorithm chooses the Braves, Jimmy's brain chooses
the Padres. Jimmy's brain chooses the Orioles. Jimmy's algorithm third person,
what a loser. Okay, So my brain is choosing the

(13:46):
Astros Orioles, Padres, the algorithm is choosing the Astros, Royals, Braves,
and then and Brewers both are choosing the Brewers both
are choosing the Brewers brain and algorithm. And then I
guess this would have the Yankees and the Braves we
just played it out, playing in the World Series against
each other. I'd be cool. Or the Yankees and the Phillies,

(14:07):
the worst team Chicago White Sox, then the Miami Marlins
then the Los Angeles Angels, then the Colorado Rockies, then
the Athletics and the Pirates and the Nationals and the
Blue Jays. So that's pretty accurate down there. Up here,
the Braves get a big boost because I think on
the pitching side they're goods, they're good. There you go,

(14:27):
we've predicted it. That's the algorithm. Someone write it down
in a bracket so I can remember it, and we'll
go back into this later and see maybe it would
be fun to go just postseason pitchers. But I don't
know how to break down the formula that well. But
that's a very sophisticated look at whatever baseball. I ran
out of steam on that sentence, so we're just gonna pause, regroup,

(14:50):
sip of the coffee. Topic number two. I had Dalton
whip me up some stats here because shoo Tani, it's
his first time in the playoffs, hasn't been in the
MLB postseason, so I was like, well, how did he
do in? Uh NPB? Nippin professional baseball is so what
it stands for. It's gotta be NPB. But you said

(15:12):
nippin or nippon nipping pronunciation. This is is this gonna
be right. The following pronunciation is brought to you by
pronounced names dot com ad Nippon. Nippon Nippon didn't really
have a Japanese accent, so I don't know if I
can trust that. Why are there two ways? What? Jimmie,

(15:32):
stop getting lost in this? I adult look up some
stats for me. Is this a link? What do we
got here? This is the scoreboard? Now? He said that
they don't like it's hard to find old video, which
I wish I could find. I did find one thread
where you can find it. Be kind of you translate
pages into English, because I'd love to go find old
highlights of him in the postseason. So in the first stage,

(15:53):
and we're not going to look at pitching stats for Otani,
but in this one game he went oh for five.
And the way that the playoffs work in this league
are the top three teams. The top three teams make
the playoffs. The first team has a bye, the next
two play a three game set where the second seed
hosts every game like the wildcard series that are about

(16:15):
to start. Correct me if I'm wrong, because I think
I'm remembering this correctly. And then the winner of the
three game series goes on to play the number one seed,
and it's a seven game series, but the one seed
is spotted a game, so the one seed has to
win three games and the two or three seed has

(16:37):
to win four games. I think I believe that's how
they do it. They call it a climax series. So in
the first stage, Otani pitched a Jim didn't hit on
the day he pitched, and then in the third game
of that series he went oher for five of the
play with three ks. He's like nineteen years old in that.
I think the final stage, which is I'm guessing the championship,

(17:01):
he went one for four, oh for four, two for
four at the plate, so that's three four twelve and
no home runs, but we don't know if their doubles
are not three for twelve and seven. Ing's pitch four runs.
Don't care about pitching. And then the next year, first
stage looks like his team lost. He went oh for
one with a K. So where are we at. We're

(17:22):
at five plus twelve seventeen, We're at three for seventeen,
and then four for eighteen, four for eighteen, two twenty
two batting average. And then the next year they were
the one seed, so they're only in the final stage.
Here pitched a gym game one oh for two with

(17:43):
two walks, oh for four with two k's, one for
four with two RBIs and one for four, So I
mean that's that's that's fourteen two six four, six four
forty two eighteen plus fourteen just thirty two. What the
fuck did I say? I am six for three two

(18:05):
one eight seven batting average in the postseason in Japan
not all that great. Turns out that's a bump oh eight? Whoa?
What are all these? Oh? Sorry? Of those three seeds,
there's the first stage, the first stage, which is the
two and three. Then they play the one, but there's
two leagues, and then there's the the final. So his

(18:28):
team was the one seed. They won basically the championship series.
They go to the Nippon Series where he goes off.
He goes two for three and then oh for one,
so that's two for four and then three for four,
so that's five for eight, and then that's five for twelve,
and then that's six four, sixteen, six for sixteen, and

(18:50):
that would be this is great. Jimmy does math, it
would be it would be row bye bye forty eight
two fifty guys batting average up to two fifty in
the in that did they win? I don't know. And
then this, I don't know what this is. Oh my goodness.
Dult just had the playoff career numbers at the end,

(19:12):
and I didn't know that I have one more hit
in my calculations adult I had twelve, Adult has eleven.
So that's four six. How do we miss on that? Six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven?
So I was wrong. I was wrong on so many counts.
His playoff career in Japan eleven for forty eight two
twenty nine average, three RBIs, three walks, fifteen strikeouts. Green,

(19:35):
he's young, he's much different guy. Uh, he's the best
player in the world right now. So I think he's
gonna put on a show. Uh. Then, if you want
to look at the World Baseball Classic, he was the
best hitter and best pitcher in the World Baseball Classic.
He hit four to thirty five a batting average is
six or six. Granted, deep the quality of play in
the World Baseball Classic is less than than the MLB postseason,

(19:56):
but he crushed that pitching and hitting really crushed it.
Came in to close is that what we're getting? Are
we getting that again? Is he gonna return pitching ready
by the world series? Would that be incredible or what?
Sorry for making you sit through all that math. And
I wish I had footage of this, and maybe I
can go find it, but I wanted to see what

(20:17):
he's done under the bright lights. I mean bright lights
have been on Otani for a while, although those bright
lights get awfully dim in Anaheim because suddenly no one
cares about you when you're there. And that's not a
shot at Anaheim fans because they always get mad when
I say that I want the lights to be bright.
You got your management and ownership? Does it to themselves?

(20:39):
I guess I don't know what's going on. I want
it to be really, I wanted the Angels make the
postseason more than anyone, not more than anyone, obviously, not
more than anyone. Obviously. That was a figure of speech
that was in poor taste because so many people wanted
it more than me, trout Otani. So a time is
gonna be good? All right, here's some just quick hitting ideas.
Nah nah, cut that scrap it all right, last segment

(21:05):
of the show. Let's see who gets beat up the most.
We're gonna go to the inside edge inside edge database here,
and I'm gonna go catcher mask kits, Which catcher took
the most foul tips pitches to the mask? Okay, that's
what we're gonna look at. So we're going catcher mask kits, Catcher.

(21:28):
We're gonna generate a leaderboard by individual players. See what
we get here. So this guy is like, this should
be an award. Ooh, Will Smith thirty two hits to
the mask for Will Smith, Austin Wells twenty seven, Wilson
contur Is twenty five. But Will Smith the most, the

(21:49):
most of all. Okay, here we go. There's one right
to the mask, Jay caves up handsome wolf. Ooh, another
one to the mask? E all right, so Will Smith
has the most. I will make a montage of those
after I'm done wrapping, and I'll play it with audio

(22:10):
for you guys right now.

Speaker 2 (22:11):
Stat cast popping hard for relief to it battle from me.
I'm a muff west Age last night. We're sure it's like,
oh the wage? What two gone here? Stay rolling?

Speaker 1 (22:32):
Okay? And uh second most was Wells, I mean Adley
Rushman only thirteen. It's kind of wild tough, for he
catches a lot. Naylor only six McCann on the a's
only five. Damn. You can also look up what if
we go, uh, bat ball other contact? So most most

(22:54):
times getting beat up, most times getting beat up. But
it's not a ball to the face for catchers. Let's
see who's the leader here, oh Bailey and sixty nine. Ye.
Now we can do severity of this, and we can
say we'll take out mild and shout out to the
guys at inside edge, for they they gave me this

(23:16):
idea and they're, you know, teaching me how to toggle
this website, which is amazing and my favorite thing. So
we're at catcher and these are We took away all
the mild ones and we did what do we do?
We did bat ball other contacts. So Wong has the most.
And let's just take a look a couple of these.
What are we looking at here? Oh, so that's ball

(23:39):
to the shoulder. That's probably worse. No, it's not worse
than the head. Oh all their shoulder? Oh man? All right,
add these up. Two catchers hanging out ooh nie. Okay,
if this next one is his left knee, then we've
just got all the corners of his aim. Now rightne again.
Oh damn, that stinks. Wong just getting beat up. At

(24:01):
least it's not his head. Oh that knee again, dude,
Being a catcher's brutal. Huh Ooh that was his hand Yike,
stands up. Okay, he's got his left knee down. Oh
that was his shoulder. I guess this is kind of brutal.
Being a catcher's gnarly toe. Oo toe, Judge felt bad

(24:24):
for him. Got a lot of ponchos in the crowd.
Wet day. Ooh, left toe, We got it. We've got
both toes hit. We haven't had the left knee hit yet.
There's the left toe again. Yikes, dude, this is brutal.
I don't know if I want to keep watching this.
I'll keep watching it. Hee the right knee again. Damn.

(24:46):
Ooh that right knee again. Yikes. These are all the
same game. Oh, I think I just watched the same
video three times. Didn't realize it, Yep, I did. All right,
Thank you guys very much for tuning in. That was
Jimmy's three things. Enjoy the the postseason. I'll be back
next week. We'll be in the middle of the divisional series.
My Yankees will be two games into their series. My

(25:07):
heart will be racing. I might be sad, sad Sacks,
or giddy of all giddy sacks. Subscribe like share with
a friend, Appreciate you. Goodbye,
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