July 29, 2025 • 44 mins
Today we kick off our annual division-by-division NFL preview episodes, as Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter go through each of the eight divisions across the league, with our march to Week 1 officially underway.
We start with an always electrifying division, on that Chad is always quick to show deference to. One that he has nothing but respect for. One that shows us, year after year, why it is NOT a joke division: the AFC South. #Volume
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.
Let's welcome in my co host, my companion Michael andare
Mike BFF professional?
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Better? Sign in Hunter Ello?
Speaker 3 (00:23):
So I'm in Chad. How are we doing? Brother dude?
Speaker 2 (00:26):
We made it Every year.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
We hope and pray training camps would come a little
bit sooner, but they always seem to come at the
exact same time, which means it's time for us to
kick off our annual division by division NFL preview episodes,
going through each of the eight divisions across the AFC
and the NFC as our March to Week one officially
(00:52):
begins today. We start with the always electrifying division that
I am quick to show deference to, one that I
have nothing but respect for, one that shows.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
Us year after year after year. Why it is not.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
A joke division at all, A division that has been
loved and admired by us on this show for going
on a decade.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
The AFC South.
Speaker 4 (01:29):
Yeah, it's a it's a gross division, but it's a
division that you can find a lot of value in.
We've had some really fun years been there, right, The
Trevor Lawrence year that he came back eight to one,
ten to one. Some people got it to win this
division on the last game of the year against Tennessee.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
Pretty exciting.
Speaker 4 (01:44):
In the following year, Brandon Anderson had him on the show,
talked about Houston Texans. I think they were eleven to one,
sure enough won the division.
Speaker 3 (01:53):
So it's it's just a crazy division.
Speaker 4 (01:55):
You can go from worse to first in this division
if you get the right quarterback with the defensive combination.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
Just because we talk about the time, it's it's a
bad division chat.
Speaker 4 (02:04):
So if you just have one really good part of
your team, you can usually dominate this division in that sense.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
Well, look, that's that's sort of the theme for this division.
And we've talked about it a few times on the
show already during the offseason, and so let's get into it.
The Houston Texans.
Speaker 4 (02:22):
Sol rolls enough that both a vade in love and
that's old Vans.
Speaker 3 (02:26):
If you're go and play in Texas, you gotta have the.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
The Houston Texans. They're the division winners the past two seasons.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
CJ.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
Stroud had a brilliant rookie season. He took a huge
step back last season. Arguably a lot of different reasons
for that. They're Division odds plus one ten. There are
conference odds sixteen to one, longer, by the way, than
the Chargers, whom they crushed in the playoffs. They're Super
(02:59):
Bowl odds to one. Their win total nine and a half. Dude,
I want to love the Texans, I really do. I
want to believe in CJ.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
Stroud.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
I want to believe in the back to back playoffs.
I want to believe in destroying the Chargers, keeping it
close with the Chiefs in the postseason. I want to
believe because their defense is so good at every level.
You know, Daniel Hunter signed a new extension for big
money that got Will Anderson. Derek Stingley signed a deal
(03:31):
three years eighty nine guaranteed. I want to love this
team so much, but they have done nothing to help
the offensive line. In fact, they've gotten worse. No more
Laramy Tunsel greater as one of the best tackles in
the NFL. The big issue last year was the offensive line.
I've got the stats to back it up on how
(03:52):
it impacted CJ. Stroud and the most important elements of
his game. Simon. Before I dig into the data here,
give me your take on the Texans. Am I blowing
all of this out of proportion because at the end
of the day, it's the best quarterback in the division?
Speaker 2 (04:06):
Take the best quarterback.
Speaker 4 (04:08):
Yeah, it's interesting talking to scouts on the team where
their view of it was, it's a big deal to
lose obviously lose an offensive lineman, but to them, they
were so bad they needed to make major change. And
that's across the board in Tunsil. You can talk about
him as a great player. He is, he's older Chad,
He's not what we still think of in previous years.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Right, last year, you can't put.
Speaker 4 (04:29):
The blame on him because, like you just said, the
whole offensive line was bad, But he wasn't that great either,
Like he wasn't really dominant in as one on ones
as well.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
So I'm with you.
Speaker 4 (04:38):
I didn't really get them move, But the more I've
talked to guys on the team and kind of got
their perspective on it, I understand why they made the move. Now,
talking about the quarterbacks, we talked, I mean, this is
year three for CJ and this division three years ago was.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
All about the quarterbacks. Right, we had CJ go to Houston.
Speaker 4 (04:57):
We had the Colts take Anthony Richardson, and then you
had Tennessee take Will Levis. Now here we are three
years later. Will Levis is gone. I mean, he's basically
his career is over. In Tennessee. Thet they took Gay
Ward the first pick, and andthey richards is a total unknown.
CJ has been the playoffs every season and has won
a playoff game every season. So I think it's tough
(05:19):
where we had expectations for people. But to me, he's
coming to the league and he's done everything I expected
him to do, Like he shows up in the playoffs.
And again we talked that game against the Chiefs. I
know everyone played the Chiefs tight and tough last year,
but they were in it.
Speaker 3 (05:33):
They were in in that fourth quarter. So this is
a team we talk. We know they have a load
of talent.
Speaker 4 (05:39):
But like your questions right now, I think is what
the majority of the public is feeling. That is why
this is a minus one fifty minus one sixty, right
And there's a reason this is plus one ten because
we have so many questions about this new rebuilt offensive
line and what is up with CJ. Was that just
because of the regression of last year. We expected and
defensive coordinators better against him and him struggling because of
(06:01):
that and the adjustments they made. Maybe, but a little
bit like me, and you watch a lot of their games,
he just looked different. He didn't have the same confidence
and putting the ball downfield, it was a little different.
So I get to hesitation from people. But to me,
nine and a half, if I'm gonna bet it, I
have it right at ten, I'll take the over. But
it's so small. Am I really gonna put a lot
of money to it?
Speaker 3 (06:21):
Now?
Speaker 4 (06:21):
It's a very small margin here because to me, ten
to eleven wins is true for them, that's a real possibility.
Speaker 3 (06:29):
But the reason it is.
Speaker 4 (06:30):
Nine and a half so low is because of the
unknown of Tennessee, of Jacksonville, of the colts. Like this,
we all expect this division to be much better than
they were last year. Right last year, Houston just had
their way in this division. So that's why, like a
lot of people have asked about this nine and a half,
they're like, is it trappy?
Speaker 3 (06:48):
It's not that trappy in the sense that the books
have late this number.
Speaker 4 (06:51):
Because of that, right, they have the same type of
model if their model it has this at ten, why
not throw it at nine and a half and juice
it to the over right, that's where most of the
public money should coming in. So makes sense that it's
nine and a half. I'm shocked they're thirty to one
Super Bowl odds, like I wouldn't probably put it below
thirty five. So to me, there's no value for looking
(07:12):
at their Super BWL odds. But if you want to
make a play on the division a plus one ten chat,
I can't fault you for it. I've thrown a little
bet on it in parlays with them in a couple
other teams. But straight up wise, this is not the
team I'm better for this division at all.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
Me neither brother.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
I am not a buyer on the Texans in any respect.
The nine and a half is just not that interesting.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
Yeah, it's not appealing.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
It's not that interesting to me. Let's not discount the
fact that they really didn't do anything to upgrade their
receiver room. Nicocollins is really their only primary target. They
haven't really upgraded their running back situation. Joe Mixon has
an injury that has not fully been disclosed that they
(07:57):
say happened away from the facility that's going to keep
him out through a lot of training camp. They have
Nick Chubb, but Nick Chubb is old and injury prone
for a running back, so.
Speaker 4 (08:09):
I do I'll just say that the wide receiver Chad
they did add I know it's not a big name
to you.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
Christian Kirk.
Speaker 4 (08:14):
I know they had a Christian on him and Jayden Higgins,
a rookie has as a really high upside. So they
did address a little bit the wide receiver. I'm not
trying to say you're totally off basis, but like they
did add some pieces to the wide receiver room.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
You asked what happened to c J Stroud last year?
I'm going to tell you what happened to c J
Stroud last year because I've been digging into the data.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
One of the.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
Biggest reasons for his progression in twenty twenty three, c J.
Stroud was a revelation in the deep passing game. Right
per the advanced stats such as EP on deep throws
or his PFF ranking for deep throws, he was so
good he had one of the five best seasons over
(09:10):
the previous five seasons of anybody in the NFL throwing
the deep ball.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
In twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (09:17):
Four, he was so bad on deep balls he fell
to twenty ninth in EPA. Again, EPA's expected points at
it twenty ninth on.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
Deep balls in EPA. In the NFL, what happened? You
might ask, why did CJ. Stroud regress so much?
Speaker 1 (09:37):
And we try to figure it out all year last year,
like where the defense is doing something differently? Was it
the injuries to Nico Collins? Was it, you know, different
kind of sort of thinking from CJ. The biggest issue
goes back to what we talked about in the beginning,
the offensive line, the disruption pressure rate that he faced.
(10:00):
What that really means is like he was disrupted from
going through even his initial progression increased from five percent
in twenty twenty three to twenty five percent in twenty
twenty four. That was the highest in the league. So
this guy couldn't even get through his initial reads on
any play and it took away what was his greatest
(10:22):
weapon as a rookie. And remember Blake, think back, We
all remember how great he was throwing deep balls. And
if even think about that playoff game against the Chargers,
he was throwing bombs in that game multiple explosive pass plays.
Those are what won them in that game. In addition
to Justin Herbert throwing the four picks was his ability
to generate explosive plays downfield with the pass. If he
(10:45):
can't do that this year with a new coordinator, that
to me poses a real problem for the Texans and Cjstraft.
Speaker 4 (10:53):
Yeah, and we would both agree that they still obviously
have the best defensive unit in this division.
Speaker 3 (10:58):
Yes, still have the best quarterback in this division by
a long shot.
Speaker 4 (11:02):
And you know, if you're someone out there that likes
doing these divisional parlays, a guy like doing, I have
no issue with you betting there right now throwing them
into a parlay. But like we're about to dive in here,
there's other other teams of the division that just have
better odds, better value where I'm not saying it was
fluky that you're one with CJ. But you talked about
a little bit with the numbers where we knew he
(11:22):
was due for a regression on the deep ball. That
that's insane though him being twenty ninth, I didn't know
it was that bad. That that nice median if he
finds if he can be back in the top fifteen.
That's going to pretty much lock them up to doing
this division right like that would be such a huge
bump in their offensive output.
Speaker 3 (11:39):
So I'm with you again. Another thing that's not being
talked down enough about enough Joe Mixon being hurt. I
know he's not Joe Mixon.
Speaker 4 (11:45):
A Bowl, but that's still a big deal to that
offense where you know, he wished for one thousand yards.
Speaker 3 (11:49):
He was pretty important to that offense last season.
Speaker 4 (11:52):
So yeah, it's gonna be something to follow along the
next month see what he is in the update on
his injuries, because he he is in line right now
to miss the first couple weeks. That's why they're talking
in camp. So pretty interesting injury to follow with that team.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Real stabilizing force on the team, real veteran presence, did
so much to put that team in contention when things
were not going well for the offense and for the
passing game.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
All right, So it feels.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
Like we're in somewhat alignment on the Texans and their
failings but also their strengths. It really could come down
to their defense. If CJ improves on the deep ball
a little bit, we like them a little bit more.
But right now, we don't find any value in their
numbers unless we're doing their plus one, ten and some
parlays to win the division? All right, Jacksonville Jaguars.
Speaker 3 (12:40):
It's the chant heard all throughout everybody, call for pride
and Jacksonville's team.
Speaker 4 (12:50):
Let everyone know where they are from.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
Jacksonville Jaguars plus three hundred to win the division, thirty
five to one to win the conference, eighty to one
to win the Super Bowl win total seven and a half. Simon,
can you tell me what this date means for the
(13:14):
Jacksonville Jaguars?
Speaker 2 (13:16):
You ready? December fourth, twenty twenty three?
Speaker 3 (13:26):
Was that the last time there above five hundred?
Speaker 2 (13:28):
No?
Speaker 1 (13:29):
December fourth, twenty twenty three was a Monday night game
against the Bengals. At that point in the season, the
Jags were eight and three in twenty twenty three. They
were leading the division, still building off of a monster
comeback playoff win in twenty twenty two against the Chargers
(13:50):
that solidified Trevor Lawrence as one of the top young
qbs in the NFL. It made it look like the
Doug Peterson Trevor Lawrence connection was going to catapult them
into the next realm of AFC greatness. Midway through the
fourth quarter of that game, it was tied twenty eight
twenty eight, Trevor Lawrence was stepped on by his own lineman,
(14:13):
Walker Little, severely injured his right ankle. Did not return
to the game. The Jags lost in overtime thirty four
thirty one. They dropped to eight and four in the season.
They'd go on to lose four of their final five games.
Finished the season nine and eight, missed the playoffs. Wheels
fell off. They never put him back on the next year,
(14:37):
even when he was healthy. Trevor Lawrence starts zero to four,
they never get into a groove, he hurts his shoulder,
He's done for the year. So who is this team
going to be like? Is Trevor Lawrence the guy who
took them on that miraculous comeback in the playoffs and
then started the next year eight and three and then
(14:58):
had that debilitating ankle injury and the team kind of
never recovered over the next season and a half. New
coach Wiam Cohne Brian Thomas Junior was brilliant. Travis Hunter.
They've improved what they've done on offense. Question marks at
running back bottom ten offensive line six, easiest schedule according
(15:20):
to one win loss projections. So I'm a buyer on
the Jags.
Speaker 3 (15:28):
I can't follow you.
Speaker 4 (15:29):
I know a lot of pros like again, this is
this division. There's pros.
Speaker 3 (15:32):
I like a lot of these teams for different reasons.
A lot of pros I've talked to who like these
guys in May, then in June. Now they're you'd like
to do more here in July.
Speaker 4 (15:40):
The hype keeps building is because it's the classic new
head coach. Like the new head coach, you bring him
in with the new offensive scheme. You're bringing Travis Hunter,
you I mean people want him to play both sides.
The wide receiver positions, I think is gonna be the
first thing they're trying to work into him, right. They
want him to be a weapon on offense first, just
because we know that that matters more. The likelihood of
(16:01):
him being a number one shutdown corner is much smaller
than it is being a stud roar receiver. It's just
a much easier position to play rather than defensively. But
the thing that really stands up to me is the
fact that you know they got Walker, they got josh
Heinz Allen these two incredible d linemen that I mean,
you know, as much as we like to shoot on
(16:22):
the Walker draft pick, he's just been getting ten sacks
every year like he's this is this. I think last
year is the third season another ten and a half sacks.
Like they they have the defensive front in my opinion,
But man, are they bad across the board defensively, Like
there is a lot of ways to attack that team defensively.
Speaker 3 (16:38):
And did they go out and address that stuff?
Speaker 4 (16:41):
I don't know, Like the Travis Hunter stuff, him being
their number one corner, Yes, that'd be amazing an ideal world.
It's not looking that way, Like you just watch his footwork.
I just you know, I can't imagine him trying to
go up against team's number ones, like him going against
Nico Collins, he would have a horrible day. Again, it's
Nico Collins that, like Nego Collins, is so professional running routes.
(17:03):
He would put Travis Hunter's head on a swivel. So, uh,
my mind when I look at this team is high
high upside?
Speaker 3 (17:11):
Do you love the.
Speaker 4 (17:11):
Number chicks plus three hundred enough value free? If it is,
then it's good value, Like that's that's the question. Here
is the number good enough seven and a half wins. Yeah,
if Trevor Lawrence can be that guy you just talked
about that eight and three quarterback that was ascending at
that point.
Speaker 3 (17:26):
Yes, this this team should easily reach this number in
this division.
Speaker 4 (17:29):
They have such a high level offense that with you know,
even if we don't know who their number one running
back is right now, like are even looking at their
depth chart. Tank Biggsley took a step back, Travis etn
took a step back.
Speaker 3 (17:42):
We don't know which one of.
Speaker 4 (17:43):
Those guys will be the guy or could be the
rookie they drafted. Like it's that's a big question right now.
But you're you, you kind of brought up with them.
We talk all the time the offensive lines, but then
we really do care about that. To me is gonna
be interesting part about you know, you're bringing a new
head of coach or bringing a new offensive style. Can
he rupped the offense around Trevor Lawrence in that offensive line?
Can he make it work a quick pass offense? Because
(18:06):
we know on the outside, if you have Hunter and
Brian Thoms Brian Thumps junior, that's an insanely deadly combo
wide receivers, like, no excuse for Trevor Lawrence. We have
those two guys in the outside, but can you survive
that offensive line chat.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
So that's why I'm a little hesitant with this team.
Speaker 4 (18:21):
I didn't make a small bet on them their win
total because it did open at seven and a half.
Speaker 3 (18:26):
I bet it.
Speaker 4 (18:26):
The juice has been going up towards the over because
to me, they're all upside team when you bring in
a new head coach, you have Trevor Lawrence coming off
an injury, and they're kind of left for dead in
the public opinions. Eye, I do like them, but I
also can see this team easily crash and burning just
because of all that. Like you just talked about, he
does not stay healthy. That's the biggest issue. A Trevor
lawnces just stay healthy, and he's inconsistent. So to me,
(18:48):
so many questions about this team. I've bet bet them divisionally.
Speaker 3 (18:50):
I've not bet them super bowldsive though it is tempting
eighty to one. It's just I can't get there.
Speaker 4 (18:56):
But the win toll seven and a half in this
division with all the offensive five power they have, if
they can just put it together offensively, I do like
that number, chat, So I get why you have love
for them coming into this year.
Speaker 2 (19:06):
Why wouldn't you bet the division?
Speaker 1 (19:09):
Like plus three hundred It feels like crazy good value
for this team right now that it eighteen months ago
was the division winner. Don't forget like even though CJ.
Stroud went to the playoffs his rookie year, that was
the last game of the year and they only got
in because Trevor Lawrence got hurt and the Jags collapse,
(19:32):
like they're removed and they've got new coaching and a
new administration, but a lot of the talent is still there.
It just feels like they've been completely forgotten about. Plus
three hundred feels just feels too long to me.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
I'm playing, you know, I mean, I'm always playing the angle.
Speaker 4 (19:50):
So basically, they start the season with the Panthers, So yeah,
we've loved the Panthers. We'll dive into them our next show.
But they go sincey Houston forty nine ers Chiefs Seattle
than the Rams and their bye week. So to me,
if I think if I could be patient here and
they can go you know, three and four, I might
(20:11):
be able to get a better number at their bye
week point, because then they come out of their bye week,
they come out and they play Vegas, Houston Chargers, Ariazonak.
Speaker 3 (20:19):
They have a really tough start.
Speaker 4 (20:21):
To the season with that sincey Houston, forty nine Ers,
Kansas City run.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
Like, to me, that's just a brutal stretch.
Speaker 4 (20:27):
So I'm just gonna be patient here, and I think
you'll get a better number if you wait in season,
just because I just don't see a scenario where they're
going to Cincinnati winning, coming home beating Houston, then going
at the forty nine Ers winning, and then coming home
beating the Chiefs like that, Just to me, for this
new coaching staff, that's a really really rough start.
Speaker 3 (20:46):
Chat.
Speaker 4 (20:46):
I know you probably didn't dive into that as much.
You agree that's that's a little little daunting to start
the year that way.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
I did.
Speaker 1 (20:52):
I dove into it for the first two games. I
honestly didn't dive beyond that. And I saw the Panthers
the schedule and I'm like, oh, well, that's an automatic l.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
For the Jacks.
Speaker 1 (21:05):
There you go, and we'll talk about the Panthers in
the NFC South in the next show. Like you just said,
a little hint, I know, we have asked people to
tail us on the Panthers for many, many years, and Simon,
you know, as you and I have discussed for the
(21:26):
book I'm working on, I have done a very deep
dive into my betting history over the past seven seasons,
all of which is tracked in the Action Network app.
And the fun part of that is I was able
to download every single bet and track it to the
most minute level of detail, and my record betting bad teams,
(21:54):
the teams that we have lost the most, that we
are always so ready to bet Jags and Panthers like,
it is amazing how frequently we lose those games when
we are so sure that is the exact right side.
Speaker 4 (22:12):
My favorite thing is you said, we've been betting the
Panthers for years. It was just one year. That's how
that's so many years. It felt like it took off
your life. It was just one year, but it felt
like years to you because.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
And by the way, it took years off her life.
And by the second half of the season, oh, they
were phenomenal.
Speaker 3 (22:25):
Yeah, it was the best. And we're talking about.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
That when I was doing the research for Thursday's show.
Speaker 3 (22:31):
Just that first ten weeks, Man, that was tough.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
Over the weekend.
Speaker 1 (22:35):
I did the research for Thursday show and I saw
the Panthers and I'm like, oh my god, they were
fucking brilliant. And so we'll talk about that on Thursday.
But your point is well taken. Maybe it's just a
better time to buy the Jags.
Speaker 4 (22:49):
It made impatient because that is I got you right
away when I saw that plus around it, and I
was like, yeah, I was tempted, and I was like,
there's well, are they giving.
Speaker 3 (22:56):
Me that number?
Speaker 4 (22:56):
Let me let me look into their schedule a little bit,
see if there's a better opportunity coming up in the air.
And that Bie a week jumped out to me that
that could be good value that bye week if you
want to take a position on them.
Speaker 1 (23:06):
All right, So I think it's fair to say, Simon,
the Jags and the Texans are where the AFC South
projections fairly land. The Colts are such a disappointing franchise.
Speaker 3 (23:24):
A year ago, Indianapolis fell short of the Super Bowl
on their quest to the NFL Mountain Town. That's where
we're going, and we're just getting started.
Speaker 1 (23:35):
The Colts, they had the opportunity with Shane Steichen to
take it to the next level because I think we
were both really impressed with how he coached that team
two seasons ago and with myriad injuries, Anthony Richardson, Gardner
Minshew filling in. They are plus three sixty to win
(23:57):
the division, they are fifty to one to win the
one hundred to one to win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (24:03):
They'll win total to.
Speaker 1 (24:04):
Me at seven and a half feels like what they've been.
It's a representation of them being stuck in mediocrity. Obviously,
the biggest play, and we'll dig into this, is Daniel
Jones is now going to be the quarterback. Anthony Richardson
has been a struggling with play and accuracy, but be
(24:25):
still less lingering injury issues. Like I feel like I
don't have a ton of strong opinions on this team.
They're a middle of the back team being greater as
a milk toast investment, Like what do I do here?
Speaker 3 (24:41):
It's a tough team to read.
Speaker 4 (24:42):
It's is it fully closed the window? I mean that
they had this incredible run where they had Andrew Luck
and they didn't have the offensive line, and as soon
as he retired, they finally had the offensive line and
they had the defense. They kept bringing to these veteran
quarterbacks and you know, people remember I liked Anthony richardson
the he's just he's failed in many ways, but they
failed him as an organization. And like you just said, now
(25:04):
they've brought in Daniel Jones and you know, the books
once again another line that people think they don't know
what they're doing with them. They're just throwing out seven
and a half. I have this number at seven. So
to me, the books priced are right. We're seven and
a half. That feels right because the season go two ways.
Like they have some talent on the team. They have it,
like you just said, I think we both agree they
(25:25):
have the coaching. Can they have the quarterback to play consistent?
They have They have not had a consistent quarterback since
Philip Rivers, So it's been.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
It's been I didn't even count.
Speaker 3 (25:38):
He was he was solid for them.
Speaker 4 (25:39):
But yeah, I just it's just it's just tough to
watch where you know, you see these pieces, I mean,
like the tight end they just went and got this year.
You know it was flip flopped. You know, you can
either take warn or you know, the guy you guys
got on the Bears. It's it was one or two
was they're gonna be the top tight end. These guys
are appearing like black Bowers, their apps, specimen freaks.
Speaker 3 (26:02):
Do you want to get them touches? Okay?
Speaker 4 (26:04):
Do you trust Anthony Richardson to be consistent throwing me
to a tight end? I mean his weaknesses are those
five to ten yard passes. Yeah, And you know we
talked a couple of months ago and we joked about it,
but it's like the fact that he was missing offseason
programs because he's has stalled a shoulder injury.
Speaker 3 (26:20):
It's just all bad for this Colts team. So if
you are out there betting this and betting the total,
you're holding on to hope of he takes that next
step or Daniel Jones can come in and you know,
we've seen him lead a team to plays.
Speaker 4 (26:34):
We've seen him win a playoff game against Kirk Cousins,
that Vikings team like it's it's there for Daniel Jones.
We know he just needs the coach in the right
offensive line and the right scheme. Could this be it, like,
could that be the kind of thing where he just
beats out Richardson Because you know it's it is a
big deal with the owner, you know, Jimmer says passed away,
like the daughters have taken over. I see them doing
(26:54):
it a little differently, and they're not to me as
committed to Anthony Rision as maybe their dad was. So
if he comes in, he's just not putting it together.
I could see them going Daniel Jones, which my opinion
would be better for them for this year, but not
long term. So it's it's a tough team chat. I
honestly haven't placed a single bet on this team in
any way. I'm leaning towards the under, but I'm just
(27:15):
waiting to see who the quarterback is because if it
is Daniel Jones, I'll throw a little on the over.
Fitz Richardson, I'll take the under, just because he has
been so inconsistent.
Speaker 1 (27:23):
What what have you seen that makes you say the
daughters would run it differently and wouldn't be committed.
Speaker 4 (27:30):
Damn the way I've just seen them talking about, like
talking how they go to practice. They're always meeting with
the gms, and their whole view is they're involved, but
they don't want they want to stay out and let
people do their jobs. Where Jim Mercy was notorious for
making the main decisions, right.
Speaker 3 (27:45):
He was the reason the quarterbacks came in. He was
the reason Philip Rivers came and he was a reason
Calshner Wentz came in. I mean Matt Ryan came in.
Speaker 4 (27:52):
He's always been the reason these different things have happened,
where apparently the Daughters are letting the front office now
and make the moves, which again, that to me is
a that's what you want, you want. You don't want
an ownership like Jerry Jones and these other owners that
are heavily involved in their teams. Just because you know
the oil business doesn't mean you know the football business.
And that's always been my biggest issue with these owners,
(28:12):
where they're doing stuff off ego and feel where yeah,
Jim Mercy was a great owner, he lucked into Peyton
Manning and Andrew Luck. Like, that's how it can be
in this league, right, you don't need to be a
genius to do those type of things. So I'm excited
to see the future of this Colts organization just because
of that. I really like like everything I've read about
the Daughters, it just seems like they're thinking in a
(28:34):
new light, and they're also kind of the new generation
of trust in the numbers more so than feel. So, yeah,
it's gonna be interesting future with them, but we just
we just nail on the head it's Anthony Richardson or
Daniel Jones.
Speaker 3 (28:45):
We'll know more later in the season.
Speaker 4 (28:46):
Right now, as we sit here right now, they're both
splitting reps, so no one really knows who the who
the main quarterback is going to be there.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
Listen before Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, Robert Craft and
Jim mersay, we're just.
Speaker 2 (28:57):
Dudes who had family or.
Speaker 1 (29:02):
Wife wealth, who bought a team and we're trying to
figure out what to do with it, and we're completely
unexceptional until they landed on quarterbacks who made them look
like geniuses so they could act like these brilliant, thoughtful,
caring player first owners that everybody wanted to love. Right,
(29:26):
quarterbacks solve everything, which leads us to can Daniel Jones
be this year's Sam Darnold right? And can Shane Steiken
do what Kevin O'Connell did at least make him a
little more comfortable, put him in better positions than he's
(29:48):
been in whatever day Ball did that first year with
Daniel Jones, can Shane Steiken replicate some of that magic.
Speaker 2 (29:56):
I don't know, but the.
Speaker 1 (29:59):
Uncertainty and the fact we've seen so much evidence of
quarterbacks taken high in the first round getting opportunities revitalizing
their career at least for a season, makes me want
to pass completely on this team.
Speaker 3 (30:14):
Yeah, and I would be.
Speaker 4 (30:15):
I would be more interested in them if I knew
exactly the quarterback was. But at this point, like we
just said, it's just like plus seven twenty for the
divisional odds. Yes, me and Chad love those type of bets,
but we can't just bet on the unknown right now
in my.
Speaker 1 (30:28):
Opinion, speaking of plus seven twenty, the Tennessee Titans plus
seven twenty one hundred to one to win the conference,
two hundred and one to win the Super Bowl win
total five and a half.
Speaker 3 (30:41):
Yeah. How you doing, man? Mike Begnes with Tennessee Titans. Okay, sir,
how are you doing? I'm doing great, man.
Speaker 1 (30:49):
So we're going to turn this pick in here making
the number one pick.
Speaker 3 (30:51):
How does that sound good?
Speaker 1 (30:54):
Last season epically historically record setting back against the spread
run two and fifteen, the worst by any team in
the Super Bowl era. When the season offseason began and
they had cam Ward and you know I liked it.
They signed Kevin Seitzer from the Lions to help improve
(31:18):
their offensive line.
Speaker 3 (31:19):
Yeah, sign what's that big signing for them, big signing.
Speaker 1 (31:24):
And like we both love Bill Callahan as an offensive
line coach and Brian Callahan obviously the jury is out.
We've been tempted here a little bit.
Speaker 4 (31:38):
Yeah, I love this team and like Chad knows, I've
been talking about them for a couple of months now.
Was giving them out a plus eight hundred, plus nine hundred,
a couple of books for this division, and you know,
love the win total obviously over five and a half.
Like a couple of books open them at four and
a half, which to me was insane, but I think
that was because they hadn't drafted Cam Mooard. Yeah, and
we saw after they drafted them, Detumber has shifted up the.
Speaker 3 (32:00):
Five to five and a half almost all the books.
So love the win. Told them.
Speaker 4 (32:03):
My whole view of this team is they were so
bad at the quarterback position. It was just such a negative.
We've never seen anything like it like it was. That
was like one of the things that pained me last
year was a really big blind spot too, the amount
of fans of our show begging us to fade the
Tennessee Titans every week, and me and Chad are just
(32:23):
too smart. We are too smart, and we just we
did avoid them. We need not bet on Tennessee, thank god,
but we should have just been fading Will Levis and
that train wreck of a team, I mean, the worst
special teams in football too.
Speaker 3 (32:35):
So again easy things.
Speaker 4 (32:37):
To correct though, right because it's the quarterback and special
teams to me was the glaring weaknesses. It wasn't their defense.
I mean, yes, their offense wasn't good, but it was
because once again, the quarterback position was nothing to me.
With Calvin Ridley with cam Ward that could be a
real connection passing game wise, and like people think that's
not that big of a deal, it is when you
(32:57):
know Calvin Ridley has the talent, right he missed a
year because of gambling, when he's worked his way back
these last couple of years, and everything I've read and
seen in camp, there is a spark there, like there
is he realizes there's potential in this.
Speaker 3 (33:09):
Quarterback, unlike there was a Will Levis.
Speaker 4 (33:11):
And you know they've talked about bringing in guys for
the special teams to change what they had last year,
and it's it's a big deal when you know you're
the worst team in football and special teams, that's an
easy correct bringing in different players, different coaching staff to
correct that weakness. And we talk it's it's the quarterback,
like it's in this division. If you hit right on
(33:32):
the quarterback, it can flip it. Because you're going from
the last play schedule in a weeks in a week
division that's a huge upper hand.
Speaker 3 (33:39):
So this is another team that you know.
Speaker 4 (33:42):
Will dive into Week one obviously, but they're at Denver
Week one, cam Ward. That is a horrible, horrible spot
for a rookie. Denver already is notorious. I can't wait
for having to drop the stat Denver at home in September.
You don't want to go up to Mile High and
play those early seasons. It's hot, the air, everything, it's thin.
Guys just do not do well in the first couple
(34:04):
of weeks up there, and you're putting a rooky on
the road there.
Speaker 3 (34:06):
So if you want you've already missed a plus eight hundred.
Speaker 4 (34:10):
If you don't want to take the plus seven hundred
plus seven to fifty that's out there. You can just wait,
assume they go own one and then take that position
again before they're at home against the Rams, which a
lot of people think that's a bad spot for them.
At home against the Rams, Rams and Notorious are starting slow.
I don't think that's as bad as the spot as
people think, especially the fact that their first game the
Rams against Seattle divisional game and then all on the
(34:31):
road's that's a tough spot for the Rams. So just
if you want to be patient, you can. But to me,
I'm grabbing the win total now because I think it's
still good. It's such great value taking the division odds.
I just I love everything about this team and everything
I've seen about cam Ward. I love and again me
and you talk about these teams, Chad, that no one's
talking about, no one's talk about the number one pick
cam Ward.
Speaker 3 (34:49):
That's a good spot you want to be in when
you're back in the team. You want to be what.
Speaker 4 (34:53):
Jane Daniels was last year, right, No one talking about
Jane and Daniels at this point. Everyone's talking about, you know,
not to bust Jad's balls, but Caleb Williams and the
upside of that Bears team. They're running up their win
total up to nine and a half. You want this,
You want low expectations on a team that was last
in the division. So yeah, love the win total for
this Tennessee team.
Speaker 1 (35:15):
You've said the magic word here, which is you kind
of have to believe that the Commanders have the Titans
have some kind of Commander's magic, that Jaden Daniels is
the football equivalent or that cam Ward is the football
equivalent of Jaden Daniels, and that in the same way,
the Commander's defense. You know, Brandon Anderson talked about this
(35:37):
when we were talking about playoff scenarios. It's easier for
a defense to incrementally improve and it has a bigger
impact on the team than the other side of the ball, right,
And so you have to believe that the Titans can
incrementally improve on defense, and that cam Ward can be
(36:02):
as good as or just underneath what Jayden Daniels was,
and that that offensive line, you that's an inside baseball thing, right,
leaving in Bill Callahan his ability to coach up an
offensive line if they get a little more talented. You
got to believe a lot. So I feel like your
entire bet is based on speculation and trying to find
(36:24):
an opportunity and a window more than it is anything
that any of us are going to find in the
data and the stats on the field any of that,
because we just don't know. It's purely finding a fact
pattern and applying some historical institutional knowledge to it.
Speaker 4 (36:43):
Mathematically, though, it's as a better it's very simphen you
break down and go through the numbers, it's literally almost
mathematically impossible to do what they did last year. So like,
just going off of that, you're like, there's it's only up,
Like we just two and fifteen against the spread.
Speaker 3 (36:59):
Waen never we say like it.
Speaker 4 (37:00):
It was the craziest thing, ever, how bad they were
against the spread and how every game just Will Levis
somehow had the stupidest turnover we ever sing. We should
have known though that Week one against the Bears was
just the start of it all, and we should have
known right then and there this is this is a
train wreck of a team because they do not have
a quarterback. So yeah, really high expectations for cam Ward.
(37:22):
Every every step he's tacking since high school through college
to right now, he's improved every level. Every time he's
moved up to a new team, to a.
Speaker 3 (37:30):
New level, he's always improved.
Speaker 4 (37:32):
So yeah, I'm just I'm really excited for this guy.
Just I'm I don't even want to say I have
him the same level as I do was Caleb Williams
and Jane Daniels.
Speaker 3 (37:40):
But I literally have him right there.
Speaker 4 (37:42):
Like if it was if he came out last year,
I would have taken Jane Daniels. I had him ranked higher,
but honestly, obviously didn't know Jane Daniels was gonna turn
into what he did. But at the time I had
them really close, like one A, one B. So yeah,
just a lot of the hearsay people saying he would
have been behind Michael Pennix, I think that's a ridiculous kinds.
I think he would have gone before him last year
(38:02):
in the draft. I just I really loved the upside
of this kid came ward.
Speaker 2 (38:05):
What do you like about him?
Speaker 4 (38:08):
Other than his footwork, He's just so cool, Like he
reminds me of Lamar where there's got there's bodies flying
around him, and he's just so composed in the pocket,
so cool, calm, relaxed, even after big moments, big hits,
He's always able to stay the level and I really
look for guys like that.
Speaker 3 (38:24):
The moments are never too big for them.
Speaker 4 (38:26):
And I saw a time and time again in college
where you know, he would have this incredible ten twelve
play drive and again, Miami's one of the worst defense
they've ever seen. They would give up a seventy yard
touchdown next play and he would just put his time,
went back on back to work Draves team right down
the field do it again. He was just robotic in
that way, just such a command of the offense. And
even when I've watched the little stuff I've watched with
(38:47):
him at tennessee his just his poise and his movement.
Like I said, you can tell he's been working on
his feet even during the offseason. So yeah, I'm just
really really excited to see what he's gonna be like
as a pro.
Speaker 2 (39:00):
He is a no drama draft pick, no, yeah, niche man.
Speaker 1 (39:04):
We have not heard anything about him in the way
we heard about Caleb Williams last year, in the way
we heard about Shador Sanders this year, in the way
that we would hear about other number one overall picks.
Very little attention being paid to cam Ward and very
little expectations, which also could play to the strength of
what you're talking about. What is looking at all four
(39:30):
of these teams your favorite division bet.
Speaker 3 (39:37):
I mean it's it's gonna be Titans over wins in
their division.
Speaker 1 (39:39):
Odds, Titans over five and a half and Titans plus
seven to twenty.
Speaker 3 (39:43):
Yeah, just they really there's always mean to you. I talked
about there's teams.
Speaker 4 (39:52):
I have a couple of fourth play teams from last
year I like this year, but there's always one team,
just like we talked about with Washington and the Vikings,
And there's always random teams like last year that just
pop out of nowhere. And this this Tennessee really seems
like that team to me. So the fact that their
win total is so low based on public opinion, I
love that value.
Speaker 2 (40:11):
It is massively under expectations. Uh.
Speaker 1 (40:15):
I feel the same way about the Jags at plus
three hundred and over seven and a half.
Speaker 3 (40:22):
I like it.
Speaker 4 (40:23):
I told people I'm gonna be patient on the Jags
and I bet their win total and the bet their
divisional odds after their bye week, just because it's it's
the start from hell for them. I just can't believe
the schedule makers gave them such an insane start to
the season.
Speaker 3 (40:35):
But it's it's.
Speaker 4 (40:36):
Awesome because again you have a new coaching staff. It's
feet to the fire. You're gonna you're gonna learn quick.
Either you're gonna have a huge advantage on teams because
they're not gonna be prepared for the Jaguars, or they're
just gonna get rolled because it's just it's a brutal
like the coaching the coaching staffs that they're going against
in the first couple of weeks. It's just it's a
really tough start the season for the Jaguars.
Speaker 1 (40:54):
Look, if they get rolled, you got to start thinking
about what's gonna happen to Trevor Lawrence and how they're
going to manage that in the future, because that will
have been basically now going into a third season where
they have not exceeded expectations. Last year, he was only
injured in the second half of the year. Yeah, so
(41:16):
the first half he was terrible. And we've talked about this, like,
I remember one year we loved Trevor Lawrence. I don't
know what it was thirty forty to one to lead
the league in passing touchdowns, because we felt like he
had progressed so far and then oftentimes in the red
zone it looked.
Speaker 2 (41:33):
Like he regressed.
Speaker 1 (41:34):
So this to me feels like make it or break
a year for Trevor Lawrence. I know there's contract issues involved,
but if he doesn't perform this year and this team
doesn't do well, then what are you fucking doing?
Speaker 2 (41:48):
What are you waiting for?
Speaker 4 (41:51):
Yeah, but again it'll be tough because with this division,
they could just once again get to seven wins.
Speaker 3 (41:56):
And even if.
Speaker 4 (41:57):
They want to move on from, what do you do?
You don't have the dress. You're not high enough in
the draft to move on from. So yeah, they're I
think they're stuck with him for at least two more
seasons just because of the money.
Speaker 3 (42:09):
Like we talked about the contract and.
Speaker 4 (42:11):
I just we talk he's inconsistent, Like he'll he'll win games,
he can steal games for you, but then he'll turn
out against one of the worst teams and just not
show up or have a ton of turnovers. And yeah,
we're just we're on the same thing with the Jags.
It's like it's a make or break year and we like,
we like the unknown, but you like a little more
than I do well.
Speaker 1 (42:28):
I feel like I feel like my favorite bet has
a little more you can see it to believe it substance,
even though it's probably wrong, and your favorite bet has
a you gotta believe it and understand that this is
going to happen somewhere in the NFL, and you're making
your bet on this team and this quarterback to do that,
(42:51):
to make that Commander's type leap, to make that Texans
type leap from twenty twenty three.
Speaker 2 (42:57):
Whether they're saying yours with more conviction.
Speaker 4 (42:59):
I say this Titan's win thing that when I when
I do these, when I grade these out, this is
like one of the better higher grades I have on
a win total like this has a higher than a
sixer chance of hitting. That's like when I when I
run those type of numbers, that's really good win total wise.
That's why I'm so I mean you months ago, I
was really emphatic about the team because as soon as
I saw that, the fact that that's that's how big
(43:19):
of a difference it is putting in a quarterback at
a rookie that is that much.
Speaker 3 (43:23):
Hot higher grade than I have it on Will Levis.
Speaker 4 (43:25):
It's it is that big of an upgrade to a
team that last Y Reid bad luck and we talk
all the time about the last place schedule like it's
it's a cheak code. It's again, we'll get into all
these win totals and different teams. There's teams I don't
love that much. Like we started the Jaguars. I'm not
in love with them, but I get why Chad's bender
over because their second half is very easy. Yeah right,
(43:46):
and they so they could easily have a nice stretch
than the season. So that's that's something we're really breaking
down here is we believe in these teams. I'm giving
you my high hopes of this Tennessee team, but like
I said, I'm probably gonna be fading them week one
because it's such a bad spot.
Speaker 2 (44:01):
All right.
Speaker 1 (44:02):
So that was the AFC South Divisional betting preview. We
will return with our next episode Thursday on the Action
Network YouTube page when we Talk NFC South.
Speaker 2 (44:15):
Also check out at.
Speaker 1 (44:17):
Real Chad Milman on YouTube forclips and highlights.
Speaker 2 (44:21):
Download us from Spotify.
Speaker 1 (44:22):
Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe
me a Spotstars say whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (44:26):
Feedback is the gifts. Until next time, Love, you. Action
Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
Speaker 1 (44:39):
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help Us available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.
Let's welcome in my co host, my companion Michael andare
Mike BFF professional?
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Better? Sign in Hunter Ello?
Speaker 3 (00:23):
So I'm in Chad. How are we doing? Brother dude?
Speaker 2 (00:26):
We made it Every year.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
We hope and pray training camps would come a little
bit sooner, but they always seem to come at the
exact same time, which means it's time for us to
kick off our annual division by division NFL preview episodes,
going through each of the eight divisions across the AFC
and the NFC as our March to Week one officially
(00:52):
begins today. We start with the always electrifying division that
I am quick to show deference to, one that I
have nothing but respect for, one that shows.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
Us year after year after year. Why it is not.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
A joke division at all, A division that has been
loved and admired by us on this show for going
on a decade.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
The AFC South.
Speaker 4 (01:29):
Yeah, it's a it's a gross division, but it's a
division that you can find a lot of value in.
We've had some really fun years been there, right, The
Trevor Lawrence year that he came back eight to one,
ten to one. Some people got it to win this
division on the last game of the year against Tennessee.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
Pretty exciting.
Speaker 4 (01:44):
In the following year, Brandon Anderson had him on the show,
talked about Houston Texans. I think they were eleven to one,
sure enough won the division.
Speaker 3 (01:53):
So it's it's just a crazy division.
Speaker 4 (01:55):
You can go from worse to first in this division
if you get the right quarterback with the defensive combination.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
Just because we talk about the time, it's it's a
bad division chat.
Speaker 4 (02:04):
So if you just have one really good part of
your team, you can usually dominate this division in that sense.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
Well, look, that's that's sort of the theme for this division.
And we've talked about it a few times on the
show already during the offseason, and so let's get into it.
The Houston Texans.
Speaker 4 (02:22):
Sol rolls enough that both a vade in love and
that's old Vans.
Speaker 3 (02:26):
If you're go and play in Texas, you gotta have the.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
The Houston Texans. They're the division winners the past two seasons.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
CJ.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
Stroud had a brilliant rookie season. He took a huge
step back last season. Arguably a lot of different reasons
for that. They're Division odds plus one ten. There are
conference odds sixteen to one, longer, by the way, than
the Chargers, whom they crushed in the playoffs. They're Super
(02:59):
Bowl odds to one. Their win total nine and a half. Dude,
I want to love the Texans, I really do. I
want to believe in CJ.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
Stroud.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
I want to believe in the back to back playoffs.
I want to believe in destroying the Chargers, keeping it
close with the Chiefs in the postseason. I want to
believe because their defense is so good at every level.
You know, Daniel Hunter signed a new extension for big
money that got Will Anderson. Derek Stingley signed a deal
(03:31):
three years eighty nine guaranteed. I want to love this
team so much, but they have done nothing to help
the offensive line. In fact, they've gotten worse. No more
Laramy Tunsel greater as one of the best tackles in
the NFL. The big issue last year was the offensive line.
I've got the stats to back it up on how
(03:52):
it impacted CJ. Stroud and the most important elements of
his game. Simon. Before I dig into the data here,
give me your take on the Texans. Am I blowing
all of this out of proportion because at the end
of the day, it's the best quarterback in the division?
Speaker 2 (04:06):
Take the best quarterback.
Speaker 4 (04:08):
Yeah, it's interesting talking to scouts on the team where
their view of it was, it's a big deal to
lose obviously lose an offensive lineman, but to them, they
were so bad they needed to make major change. And
that's across the board in Tunsil. You can talk about
him as a great player. He is, he's older Chad,
He's not what we still think of in previous years.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Right, last year, you can't put.
Speaker 4 (04:29):
The blame on him because, like you just said, the
whole offensive line was bad, But he wasn't that great either,
Like he wasn't really dominant in as one on ones
as well.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
So I'm with you.
Speaker 4 (04:38):
I didn't really get them move, But the more I've
talked to guys on the team and kind of got
their perspective on it, I understand why they made the move. Now,
talking about the quarterbacks, we talked, I mean, this is
year three for CJ and this division three years ago was.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
All about the quarterbacks. Right, we had CJ go to Houston.
Speaker 4 (04:57):
We had the Colts take Anthony Richardson, and then you
had Tennessee take Will Levis. Now here we are three
years later. Will Levis is gone. I mean, he's basically
his career is over. In Tennessee. Thet they took Gay
Ward the first pick, and andthey richards is a total unknown.
CJ has been the playoffs every season and has won
a playoff game every season. So I think it's tough
(05:19):
where we had expectations for people. But to me, he's
coming to the league and he's done everything I expected
him to do, Like he shows up in the playoffs.
And again we talked that game against the Chiefs. I
know everyone played the Chiefs tight and tough last year,
but they were in it.
Speaker 3 (05:33):
They were in in that fourth quarter. So this is
a team we talk. We know they have a load
of talent.
Speaker 4 (05:39):
But like your questions right now, I think is what
the majority of the public is feeling. That is why
this is a minus one fifty minus one sixty, right
And there's a reason this is plus one ten because
we have so many questions about this new rebuilt offensive
line and what is up with CJ. Was that just
because of the regression of last year. We expected and
defensive coordinators better against him and him struggling because of
(06:01):
that and the adjustments they made. Maybe, but a little
bit like me, and you watch a lot of their games,
he just looked different. He didn't have the same confidence
and putting the ball downfield, it was a little different.
So I get to hesitation from people. But to me,
nine and a half, if I'm gonna bet it, I
have it right at ten, I'll take the over. But
it's so small. Am I really gonna put a lot
of money to it?
Speaker 3 (06:21):
Now?
Speaker 4 (06:21):
It's a very small margin here because to me, ten
to eleven wins is true for them, that's a real possibility.
Speaker 3 (06:29):
But the reason it is.
Speaker 4 (06:30):
Nine and a half so low is because of the
unknown of Tennessee, of Jacksonville, of the colts. Like this,
we all expect this division to be much better than
they were last year. Right last year, Houston just had
their way in this division. So that's why, like a
lot of people have asked about this nine and a half,
they're like, is it trappy?
Speaker 3 (06:48):
It's not that trappy in the sense that the books
have late this number.
Speaker 4 (06:51):
Because of that, right, they have the same type of
model if their model it has this at ten, why
not throw it at nine and a half and juice
it to the over right, that's where most of the
public money should coming in. So makes sense that it's
nine and a half. I'm shocked they're thirty to one
Super Bowl odds, like I wouldn't probably put it below
thirty five. So to me, there's no value for looking
(07:12):
at their Super BWL odds. But if you want to
make a play on the division a plus one ten chat,
I can't fault you for it. I've thrown a little
bet on it in parlays with them in a couple
other teams. But straight up wise, this is not the
team I'm better for this division at all.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
Me neither brother.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
I am not a buyer on the Texans in any respect.
The nine and a half is just not that interesting.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
Yeah, it's not appealing.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
It's not that interesting to me. Let's not discount the
fact that they really didn't do anything to upgrade their
receiver room. Nicocollins is really their only primary target. They
haven't really upgraded their running back situation. Joe Mixon has
an injury that has not fully been disclosed that they
(07:57):
say happened away from the facility that's going to keep
him out through a lot of training camp. They have
Nick Chubb, but Nick Chubb is old and injury prone
for a running back, so.
Speaker 4 (08:09):
I do I'll just say that the wide receiver Chad
they did add I know it's not a big name
to you.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
Christian Kirk.
Speaker 4 (08:14):
I know they had a Christian on him and Jayden Higgins,
a rookie has as a really high upside. So they
did address a little bit the wide receiver. I'm not
trying to say you're totally off basis, but like they
did add some pieces to the wide receiver room.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
You asked what happened to c J Stroud last year?
I'm going to tell you what happened to c J
Stroud last year because I've been digging into the data.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
One of the.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
Biggest reasons for his progression in twenty twenty three, c J.
Stroud was a revelation in the deep passing game. Right
per the advanced stats such as EP on deep throws
or his PFF ranking for deep throws, he was so
good he had one of the five best seasons over
(09:10):
the previous five seasons of anybody in the NFL throwing
the deep ball.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
In twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (09:17):
Four, he was so bad on deep balls he fell
to twenty ninth in EPA. Again, EPA's expected points at
it twenty ninth on.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
Deep balls in EPA. In the NFL, what happened? You
might ask, why did CJ. Stroud regress so much?
Speaker 1 (09:37):
And we try to figure it out all year last year,
like where the defense is doing something differently? Was it
the injuries to Nico Collins? Was it, you know, different
kind of sort of thinking from CJ. The biggest issue
goes back to what we talked about in the beginning,
the offensive line, the disruption pressure rate that he faced.
(10:00):
What that really means is like he was disrupted from
going through even his initial progression increased from five percent
in twenty twenty three to twenty five percent in twenty
twenty four. That was the highest in the league. So
this guy couldn't even get through his initial reads on
any play and it took away what was his greatest
(10:22):
weapon as a rookie. And remember Blake, think back, We
all remember how great he was throwing deep balls. And
if even think about that playoff game against the Chargers,
he was throwing bombs in that game multiple explosive pass plays.
Those are what won them in that game. In addition
to Justin Herbert throwing the four picks was his ability
to generate explosive plays downfield with the pass. If he
(10:45):
can't do that this year with a new coordinator, that
to me poses a real problem for the Texans and Cjstraft.
Speaker 4 (10:53):
Yeah, and we would both agree that they still obviously
have the best defensive unit in this division.
Speaker 3 (10:58):
Yes, still have the best quarterback in this division by
a long shot.
Speaker 4 (11:02):
And you know, if you're someone out there that likes
doing these divisional parlays, a guy like doing, I have
no issue with you betting there right now throwing them
into a parlay. But like we're about to dive in here,
there's other other teams of the division that just have
better odds, better value where I'm not saying it was
fluky that you're one with CJ. But you talked about
a little bit with the numbers where we knew he
(11:22):
was due for a regression on the deep ball. That
that's insane though him being twenty ninth, I didn't know
it was that bad. That that nice median if he
finds if he can be back in the top fifteen.
That's going to pretty much lock them up to doing
this division right like that would be such a huge
bump in their offensive output.
Speaker 3 (11:39):
So I'm with you again. Another thing that's not being
talked down enough about enough Joe Mixon being hurt. I
know he's not Joe Mixon.
Speaker 4 (11:45):
A Bowl, but that's still a big deal to that
offense where you know, he wished for one thousand yards.
Speaker 3 (11:49):
He was pretty important to that offense last season.
Speaker 4 (11:52):
So yeah, it's gonna be something to follow along the
next month see what he is in the update on
his injuries, because he he is in line right now
to miss the first couple weeks. That's why they're talking
in camp. So pretty interesting injury to follow with that team.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Real stabilizing force on the team, real veteran presence, did
so much to put that team in contention when things
were not going well for the offense and for the
passing game.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
All right, So it feels.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
Like we're in somewhat alignment on the Texans and their
failings but also their strengths. It really could come down
to their defense. If CJ improves on the deep ball
a little bit, we like them a little bit more.
But right now, we don't find any value in their
numbers unless we're doing their plus one, ten and some
parlays to win the division? All right, Jacksonville Jaguars.
Speaker 3 (12:40):
It's the chant heard all throughout everybody, call for pride
and Jacksonville's team.
Speaker 4 (12:50):
Let everyone know where they are from.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
Jacksonville Jaguars plus three hundred to win the division, thirty
five to one to win the conference, eighty to one
to win the Super Bowl win total seven and a half. Simon,
can you tell me what this date means for the
(13:14):
Jacksonville Jaguars?
Speaker 2 (13:16):
You ready? December fourth, twenty twenty three?
Speaker 3 (13:26):
Was that the last time there above five hundred?
Speaker 2 (13:28):
No?
Speaker 1 (13:29):
December fourth, twenty twenty three was a Monday night game
against the Bengals. At that point in the season, the
Jags were eight and three in twenty twenty three. They
were leading the division, still building off of a monster
comeback playoff win in twenty twenty two against the Chargers
(13:50):
that solidified Trevor Lawrence as one of the top young
qbs in the NFL. It made it look like the
Doug Peterson Trevor Lawrence connection was going to catapult them
into the next realm of AFC greatness. Midway through the
fourth quarter of that game, it was tied twenty eight
twenty eight, Trevor Lawrence was stepped on by his own lineman,
(14:13):
Walker Little, severely injured his right ankle. Did not return
to the game. The Jags lost in overtime thirty four
thirty one. They dropped to eight and four in the season.
They'd go on to lose four of their final five games.
Finished the season nine and eight, missed the playoffs. Wheels
fell off. They never put him back on the next year,
(14:37):
even when he was healthy. Trevor Lawrence starts zero to four,
they never get into a groove, he hurts his shoulder,
He's done for the year. So who is this team
going to be like? Is Trevor Lawrence the guy who
took them on that miraculous comeback in the playoffs and
then started the next year eight and three and then
(14:58):
had that debilitating ankle injury and the team kind of
never recovered over the next season and a half. New
coach Wiam Cohne Brian Thomas Junior was brilliant. Travis Hunter.
They've improved what they've done on offense. Question marks at
running back bottom ten offensive line six, easiest schedule according
(15:20):
to one win loss projections. So I'm a buyer on
the Jags.
Speaker 3 (15:28):
I can't follow you.
Speaker 4 (15:29):
I know a lot of pros like again, this is
this division. There's pros.
Speaker 3 (15:32):
I like a lot of these teams for different reasons.
A lot of pros I've talked to who like these
guys in May, then in June. Now they're you'd like
to do more here in July.
Speaker 4 (15:40):
The hype keeps building is because it's the classic new
head coach. Like the new head coach, you bring him
in with the new offensive scheme. You're bringing Travis Hunter,
you I mean people want him to play both sides.
The wide receiver positions, I think is gonna be the
first thing they're trying to work into him, right. They
want him to be a weapon on offense first, just
because we know that that matters more. The likelihood of
(16:01):
him being a number one shutdown corner is much smaller
than it is being a stud roar receiver. It's just
a much easier position to play rather than defensively. But
the thing that really stands up to me is the
fact that you know they got Walker, they got josh
Heinz Allen these two incredible d linemen that I mean,
you know, as much as we like to shoot on
(16:22):
the Walker draft pick, he's just been getting ten sacks
every year like he's this is this. I think last
year is the third season another ten and a half sacks.
Like they they have the defensive front in my opinion,
But man, are they bad across the board defensively, Like
there is a lot of ways to attack that team defensively.
Speaker 3 (16:38):
And did they go out and address that stuff?
Speaker 4 (16:41):
I don't know, Like the Travis Hunter stuff, him being
their number one corner, Yes, that'd be amazing an ideal world.
It's not looking that way, Like you just watch his footwork.
I just you know, I can't imagine him trying to
go up against team's number ones, like him going against
Nico Collins, he would have a horrible day. Again, it's
Nico Collins that, like Nego Collins, is so professional running routes.
(17:03):
He would put Travis Hunter's head on a swivel. So, uh,
my mind when I look at this team is high
high upside?
Speaker 3 (17:11):
Do you love the.
Speaker 4 (17:11):
Number chicks plus three hundred enough value free? If it is,
then it's good value, Like that's that's the question. Here
is the number good enough seven and a half wins. Yeah,
if Trevor Lawrence can be that guy you just talked
about that eight and three quarterback that was ascending at
that point.
Speaker 3 (17:26):
Yes, this this team should easily reach this number in
this division.
Speaker 4 (17:29):
They have such a high level offense that with you know,
even if we don't know who their number one running
back is right now, like are even looking at their
depth chart. Tank Biggsley took a step back, Travis etn
took a step back.
Speaker 3 (17:42):
We don't know which one of.
Speaker 4 (17:43):
Those guys will be the guy or could be the
rookie they drafted. Like it's that's a big question right now.
But you're you, you kind of brought up with them.
We talk all the time the offensive lines, but then
we really do care about that. To me is gonna
be interesting part about you know, you're bringing a new
head of coach or bringing a new offensive style. Can
he rupped the offense around Trevor Lawrence in that offensive line?
Can he make it work a quick pass offense? Because
(18:06):
we know on the outside, if you have Hunter and
Brian Thoms Brian Thumps junior, that's an insanely deadly combo
wide receivers, like, no excuse for Trevor Lawrence. We have
those two guys in the outside, but can you survive
that offensive line chat.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
So that's why I'm a little hesitant with this team.
Speaker 4 (18:21):
I didn't make a small bet on them their win
total because it did open at seven and a half.
Speaker 3 (18:26):
I bet it.
Speaker 4 (18:26):
The juice has been going up towards the over because
to me, they're all upside team when you bring in
a new head coach, you have Trevor Lawrence coming off
an injury, and they're kind of left for dead in
the public opinions. Eye, I do like them, but I
also can see this team easily crash and burning just
because of all that. Like you just talked about, he
does not stay healthy. That's the biggest issue. A Trevor
lawnces just stay healthy, and he's inconsistent. So to me,
(18:48):
so many questions about this team. I've bet bet them divisionally.
Speaker 3 (18:50):
I've not bet them super bowldsive though it is tempting
eighty to one. It's just I can't get there.
Speaker 4 (18:56):
But the win toll seven and a half in this
division with all the offensive five power they have, if
they can just put it together offensively, I do like
that number, chat, So I get why you have love
for them coming into this year.
Speaker 2 (19:06):
Why wouldn't you bet the division?
Speaker 1 (19:09):
Like plus three hundred It feels like crazy good value
for this team right now that it eighteen months ago
was the division winner. Don't forget like even though CJ.
Stroud went to the playoffs his rookie year, that was
the last game of the year and they only got
in because Trevor Lawrence got hurt and the Jags collapse,
(19:32):
like they're removed and they've got new coaching and a
new administration, but a lot of the talent is still there.
It just feels like they've been completely forgotten about. Plus
three hundred feels just feels too long to me.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
I'm playing, you know, I mean, I'm always playing the angle.
Speaker 4 (19:50):
So basically, they start the season with the Panthers, So yeah,
we've loved the Panthers. We'll dive into them our next show.
But they go sincey Houston forty nine ers Chiefs Seattle
than the Rams and their bye week. So to me,
if I think if I could be patient here and
they can go you know, three and four, I might
(20:11):
be able to get a better number at their bye
week point, because then they come out of their bye week,
they come out and they play Vegas, Houston Chargers, Ariazonak.
Speaker 3 (20:19):
They have a really tough start.
Speaker 4 (20:21):
To the season with that sincey Houston, forty nine Ers,
Kansas City run.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
Like, to me, that's just a brutal stretch.
Speaker 4 (20:27):
So I'm just gonna be patient here, and I think
you'll get a better number if you wait in season,
just because I just don't see a scenario where they're
going to Cincinnati winning, coming home beating Houston, then going
at the forty nine Ers winning, and then coming home
beating the Chiefs like that, Just to me, for this
new coaching staff, that's a really really rough start.
Speaker 3 (20:46):
Chat.
Speaker 4 (20:46):
I know you probably didn't dive into that as much.
You agree that's that's a little little daunting to start
the year that way.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
I did.
Speaker 1 (20:52):
I dove into it for the first two games. I
honestly didn't dive beyond that. And I saw the Panthers
the schedule and I'm like, oh, well, that's an automatic l.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
For the Jacks.
Speaker 1 (21:05):
There you go, and we'll talk about the Panthers in
the NFC South in the next show. Like you just said,
a little hint, I know, we have asked people to
tail us on the Panthers for many, many years, and Simon,
you know, as you and I have discussed for the
(21:26):
book I'm working on, I have done a very deep
dive into my betting history over the past seven seasons,
all of which is tracked in the Action Network app.
And the fun part of that is I was able
to download every single bet and track it to the
most minute level of detail, and my record betting bad teams,
(21:54):
the teams that we have lost the most, that we
are always so ready to bet Jags and Panthers like,
it is amazing how frequently we lose those games when
we are so sure that is the exact right side.
Speaker 4 (22:12):
My favorite thing is you said, we've been betting the
Panthers for years. It was just one year. That's how
that's so many years. It felt like it took off
your life. It was just one year, but it felt
like years to you because.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
And by the way, it took years off her life.
And by the second half of the season, oh, they
were phenomenal.
Speaker 3 (22:25):
Yeah, it was the best. And we're talking about.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
That when I was doing the research for Thursday's show.
Speaker 3 (22:31):
Just that first ten weeks, Man, that was tough.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
Over the weekend.
Speaker 1 (22:35):
I did the research for Thursday show and I saw
the Panthers and I'm like, oh my god, they were
fucking brilliant. And so we'll talk about that on Thursday.
But your point is well taken. Maybe it's just a
better time to buy the Jags.
Speaker 4 (22:49):
It made impatient because that is I got you right
away when I saw that plus around it, and I
was like, yeah, I was tempted, and I was like,
there's well, are they giving.
Speaker 3 (22:56):
Me that number?
Speaker 4 (22:56):
Let me let me look into their schedule a little bit,
see if there's a better opportunity coming up in the air.
And that Bie a week jumped out to me that
that could be good value that bye week if you
want to take a position on them.
Speaker 1 (23:06):
All right, So I think it's fair to say, Simon,
the Jags and the Texans are where the AFC South
projections fairly land. The Colts are such a disappointing franchise.
Speaker 3 (23:24):
A year ago, Indianapolis fell short of the Super Bowl
on their quest to the NFL Mountain Town. That's where
we're going, and we're just getting started.
Speaker 1 (23:35):
The Colts, they had the opportunity with Shane Steichen to
take it to the next level because I think we
were both really impressed with how he coached that team
two seasons ago and with myriad injuries, Anthony Richardson, Gardner
Minshew filling in. They are plus three sixty to win
(23:57):
the division, they are fifty to one to win the
one hundred to one to win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (24:03):
They'll win total to.
Speaker 1 (24:04):
Me at seven and a half feels like what they've been.
It's a representation of them being stuck in mediocrity. Obviously,
the biggest play, and we'll dig into this, is Daniel
Jones is now going to be the quarterback. Anthony Richardson
has been a struggling with play and accuracy, but be
(24:25):
still less lingering injury issues. Like I feel like I
don't have a ton of strong opinions on this team.
They're a middle of the back team being greater as
a milk toast investment, Like what do I do here?
Speaker 3 (24:41):
It's a tough team to read.
Speaker 4 (24:42):
It's is it fully closed the window? I mean that
they had this incredible run where they had Andrew Luck
and they didn't have the offensive line, and as soon
as he retired, they finally had the offensive line and
they had the defense. They kept bringing to these veteran
quarterbacks and you know, people remember I liked Anthony richardson
the he's just he's failed in many ways, but they
failed him as an organization. And like you just said, now
(25:04):
they've brought in Daniel Jones and you know, the books
once again another line that people think they don't know
what they're doing with them. They're just throwing out seven
and a half. I have this number at seven. So
to me, the books priced are right. We're seven and
a half. That feels right because the season go two ways.
Like they have some talent on the team. They have it,
like you just said, I think we both agree they
(25:25):
have the coaching. Can they have the quarterback to play consistent?
They have They have not had a consistent quarterback since
Philip Rivers, So it's been.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
It's been I didn't even count.
Speaker 3 (25:38):
He was he was solid for them.
Speaker 4 (25:39):
But yeah, I just it's just it's just tough to
watch where you know, you see these pieces, I mean,
like the tight end they just went and got this year.
You know it was flip flopped. You know, you can
either take warn or you know, the guy you guys
got on the Bears. It's it was one or two
was they're gonna be the top tight end. These guys
are appearing like black Bowers, their apps, specimen freaks.
Speaker 3 (26:02):
Do you want to get them touches? Okay?
Speaker 4 (26:04):
Do you trust Anthony Richardson to be consistent throwing me
to a tight end? I mean his weaknesses are those
five to ten yard passes. Yeah, And you know we
talked a couple of months ago and we joked about it,
but it's like the fact that he was missing offseason
programs because he's has stalled a shoulder injury.
Speaker 3 (26:20):
It's just all bad for this Colts team. So if
you are out there betting this and betting the total,
you're holding on to hope of he takes that next
step or Daniel Jones can come in and you know,
we've seen him lead a team to plays.
Speaker 4 (26:34):
We've seen him win a playoff game against Kirk Cousins,
that Vikings team like it's it's there for Daniel Jones.
We know he just needs the coach in the right
offensive line and the right scheme. Could this be it, like,
could that be the kind of thing where he just
beats out Richardson Because you know it's it is a
big deal with the owner, you know, Jimmer says passed away,
like the daughters have taken over. I see them doing
(26:54):
it a little differently, and they're not to me as
committed to Anthony Rision as maybe their dad was. So
if he comes in, he's just not putting it together.
I could see them going Daniel Jones, which my opinion
would be better for them for this year, but not
long term. So it's it's a tough team chat. I
honestly haven't placed a single bet on this team in
any way. I'm leaning towards the under, but I'm just
(27:15):
waiting to see who the quarterback is because if it
is Daniel Jones, I'll throw a little on the over.
Fitz Richardson, I'll take the under, just because he has
been so inconsistent.
Speaker 1 (27:23):
What what have you seen that makes you say the
daughters would run it differently and wouldn't be committed.
Speaker 4 (27:30):
Damn the way I've just seen them talking about, like
talking how they go to practice. They're always meeting with
the gms, and their whole view is they're involved, but
they don't want they want to stay out and let
people do their jobs. Where Jim Mercy was notorious for
making the main decisions, right.
Speaker 3 (27:45):
He was the reason the quarterbacks came in. He was
the reason Philip Rivers came and he was a reason
Calshner Wentz came in. I mean Matt Ryan came in.
Speaker 4 (27:52):
He's always been the reason these different things have happened,
where apparently the Daughters are letting the front office now
and make the moves, which again, that to me is
a that's what you want, you want. You don't want
an ownership like Jerry Jones and these other owners that
are heavily involved in their teams. Just because you know
the oil business doesn't mean you know the football business.
And that's always been my biggest issue with these owners,
(28:12):
where they're doing stuff off ego and feel where yeah,
Jim Mercy was a great owner, he lucked into Peyton
Manning and Andrew Luck. Like, that's how it can be
in this league, right, you don't need to be a
genius to do those type of things. So I'm excited
to see the future of this Colts organization just because
of that. I really like like everything I've read about
the Daughters, it just seems like they're thinking in a
(28:34):
new light, and they're also kind of the new generation
of trust in the numbers more so than feel. So, yeah,
it's gonna be interesting future with them, but we just
we just nail on the head it's Anthony Richardson or
Daniel Jones.
Speaker 3 (28:45):
We'll know more later in the season.
Speaker 4 (28:46):
Right now, as we sit here right now, they're both
splitting reps, so no one really knows who the who
the main quarterback is going to be there.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
Listen before Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, Robert Craft and
Jim mersay, we're just.
Speaker 2 (28:57):
Dudes who had family or.
Speaker 1 (29:02):
Wife wealth, who bought a team and we're trying to
figure out what to do with it, and we're completely
unexceptional until they landed on quarterbacks who made them look
like geniuses so they could act like these brilliant, thoughtful,
caring player first owners that everybody wanted to love. Right,
(29:26):
quarterbacks solve everything, which leads us to can Daniel Jones
be this year's Sam Darnold right? And can Shane Steiken
do what Kevin O'Connell did at least make him a
little more comfortable, put him in better positions than he's
(29:48):
been in whatever day Ball did that first year with
Daniel Jones, can Shane Steiken replicate some of that magic.
Speaker 2 (29:56):
I don't know, but the.
Speaker 1 (29:59):
Uncertainty and the fact we've seen so much evidence of
quarterbacks taken high in the first round getting opportunities revitalizing
their career at least for a season, makes me want
to pass completely on this team.
Speaker 3 (30:14):
Yeah, and I would be.
Speaker 4 (30:15):
I would be more interested in them if I knew
exactly the quarterback was. But at this point, like we
just said, it's just like plus seven twenty for the
divisional odds. Yes, me and Chad love those type of bets,
but we can't just bet on the unknown right now
in my.
Speaker 1 (30:28):
Opinion, speaking of plus seven twenty, the Tennessee Titans plus
seven twenty one hundred to one to win the conference,
two hundred and one to win the Super Bowl win
total five and a half.
Speaker 3 (30:41):
Yeah. How you doing, man? Mike Begnes with Tennessee Titans. Okay, sir,
how are you doing? I'm doing great, man.
Speaker 1 (30:49):
So we're going to turn this pick in here making
the number one pick.
Speaker 3 (30:51):
How does that sound good?
Speaker 1 (30:54):
Last season epically historically record setting back against the spread
run two and fifteen, the worst by any team in
the Super Bowl era. When the season offseason began and
they had cam Ward and you know I liked it.
They signed Kevin Seitzer from the Lions to help improve
(31:18):
their offensive line.
Speaker 3 (31:19):
Yeah, sign what's that big signing for them, big signing.
Speaker 1 (31:24):
And like we both love Bill Callahan as an offensive
line coach and Brian Callahan obviously the jury is out.
We've been tempted here a little bit.
Speaker 4 (31:38):
Yeah, I love this team and like Chad knows, I've
been talking about them for a couple of months now.
Was giving them out a plus eight hundred, plus nine hundred,
a couple of books for this division, and you know,
love the win total obviously over five and a half.
Like a couple of books open them at four and
a half, which to me was insane, but I think
that was because they hadn't drafted Cam Mooard. Yeah, and
we saw after they drafted them, Detumber has shifted up the.
Speaker 3 (32:00):
Five to five and a half almost all the books.
So love the win. Told them.
Speaker 4 (32:03):
My whole view of this team is they were so
bad at the quarterback position. It was just such a negative.
We've never seen anything like it like it was. That
was like one of the things that pained me last
year was a really big blind spot too, the amount
of fans of our show begging us to fade the
Tennessee Titans every week, and me and Chad are just
(32:23):
too smart. We are too smart, and we just we
did avoid them. We need not bet on Tennessee, thank god,
but we should have just been fading Will Levis and
that train wreck of a team, I mean, the worst
special teams in football too.
Speaker 3 (32:35):
So again easy things.
Speaker 4 (32:37):
To correct though, right because it's the quarterback and special
teams to me was the glaring weaknesses. It wasn't their defense.
I mean, yes, their offense wasn't good, but it was
because once again, the quarterback position was nothing to me.
With Calvin Ridley with cam Ward that could be a
real connection passing game wise, and like people think that's
not that big of a deal, it is when you
(32:57):
know Calvin Ridley has the talent, right he missed a
year because of gambling, when he's worked his way back
these last couple of years, and everything I've read and
seen in camp, there is a spark there, like there
is he realizes there's potential in this.
Speaker 3 (33:09):
Quarterback, unlike there was a Will Levis.
Speaker 4 (33:11):
And you know they've talked about bringing in guys for
the special teams to change what they had last year,
and it's it's a big deal when you know you're
the worst team in football and special teams, that's an
easy correct bringing in different players, different coaching staff to
correct that weakness. And we talk it's it's the quarterback,
like it's in this division. If you hit right on
(33:32):
the quarterback, it can flip it. Because you're going from
the last play schedule in a weeks in a week
division that's a huge upper hand.
Speaker 3 (33:39):
So this is another team that you know.
Speaker 4 (33:42):
Will dive into Week one obviously, but they're at Denver
Week one, cam Ward. That is a horrible, horrible spot
for a rookie. Denver already is notorious. I can't wait
for having to drop the stat Denver at home in September.
You don't want to go up to Mile High and
play those early seasons. It's hot, the air, everything, it's thin.
Guys just do not do well in the first couple
(34:04):
of weeks up there, and you're putting a rooky on
the road there.
Speaker 3 (34:06):
So if you want you've already missed a plus eight hundred.
Speaker 4 (34:10):
If you don't want to take the plus seven hundred
plus seven to fifty that's out there. You can just wait,
assume they go own one and then take that position
again before they're at home against the Rams, which a
lot of people think that's a bad spot for them.
At home against the Rams, Rams and Notorious are starting slow.
I don't think that's as bad as the spot as
people think, especially the fact that their first game the
Rams against Seattle divisional game and then all on the
(34:31):
road's that's a tough spot for the Rams. So just
if you want to be patient, you can. But to me,
I'm grabbing the win total now because I think it's
still good. It's such great value taking the division odds.
I just I love everything about this team and everything
I've seen about cam Ward. I love and again me
and you talk about these teams, Chad, that no one's
talking about, no one's talk about the number one pick
cam Ward.
Speaker 3 (34:49):
That's a good spot you want to be in when
you're back in the team. You want to be what.
Speaker 4 (34:53):
Jane Daniels was last year, right, No one talking about
Jane and Daniels at this point. Everyone's talking about, you know,
not to bust Jad's balls, but Caleb Williams and the
upside of that Bears team. They're running up their win
total up to nine and a half. You want this,
You want low expectations on a team that was last
in the division. So yeah, love the win total for
this Tennessee team.
Speaker 1 (35:15):
You've said the magic word here, which is you kind
of have to believe that the Commanders have the Titans
have some kind of Commander's magic, that Jaden Daniels is
the football equivalent or that cam Ward is the football
equivalent of Jaden Daniels, and that in the same way,
the Commander's defense. You know, Brandon Anderson talked about this
(35:37):
when we were talking about playoff scenarios. It's easier for
a defense to incrementally improve and it has a bigger
impact on the team than the other side of the ball, right,
And so you have to believe that the Titans can
incrementally improve on defense, and that cam Ward can be
(36:02):
as good as or just underneath what Jayden Daniels was,
and that that offensive line, you that's an inside baseball thing, right,
leaving in Bill Callahan his ability to coach up an
offensive line if they get a little more talented. You
got to believe a lot. So I feel like your
entire bet is based on speculation and trying to find
(36:24):
an opportunity and a window more than it is anything
that any of us are going to find in the
data and the stats on the field any of that,
because we just don't know. It's purely finding a fact
pattern and applying some historical institutional knowledge to it.
Speaker 4 (36:43):
Mathematically, though, it's as a better it's very simphen you
break down and go through the numbers, it's literally almost
mathematically impossible to do what they did last year. So like,
just going off of that, you're like, there's it's only up,
Like we just two and fifteen against the spread.
Speaker 3 (36:59):
Waen never we say like it.
Speaker 4 (37:00):
It was the craziest thing, ever, how bad they were
against the spread and how every game just Will Levis
somehow had the stupidest turnover we ever sing. We should
have known though that Week one against the Bears was
just the start of it all, and we should have
known right then and there this is this is a
train wreck of a team because they do not have
a quarterback. So yeah, really high expectations for cam Ward.
(37:22):
Every every step he's tacking since high school through college
to right now, he's improved every level. Every time he's
moved up to a new team, to a.
Speaker 3 (37:30):
New level, he's always improved.
Speaker 4 (37:32):
So yeah, I'm just I'm really excited for this guy.
Just I'm I don't even want to say I have
him the same level as I do was Caleb Williams
and Jane Daniels.
Speaker 3 (37:40):
But I literally have him right there.
Speaker 4 (37:42):
Like if it was if he came out last year,
I would have taken Jane Daniels. I had him ranked higher,
but honestly, obviously didn't know Jane Daniels was gonna turn
into what he did. But at the time I had
them really close, like one A, one B. So yeah,
just a lot of the hearsay people saying he would
have been behind Michael Pennix, I think that's a ridiculous kinds.
I think he would have gone before him last year
(38:02):
in the draft. I just I really loved the upside
of this kid came ward.
Speaker 2 (38:05):
What do you like about him?
Speaker 4 (38:08):
Other than his footwork, He's just so cool, Like he
reminds me of Lamar where there's got there's bodies flying
around him, and he's just so composed in the pocket,
so cool, calm, relaxed, even after big moments, big hits,
He's always able to stay the level and I really
look for guys like that.
Speaker 3 (38:24):
The moments are never too big for them.
Speaker 4 (38:26):
And I saw a time and time again in college
where you know, he would have this incredible ten twelve
play drive and again, Miami's one of the worst defense
they've ever seen. They would give up a seventy yard
touchdown next play and he would just put his time,
went back on back to work Draves team right down
the field do it again. He was just robotic in
that way, just such a command of the offense. And
even when I've watched the little stuff I've watched with
(38:47):
him at tennessee his just his poise and his movement.
Like I said, you can tell he's been working on
his feet even during the offseason. So yeah, I'm just
really really excited to see what he's gonna be like
as a pro.
Speaker 2 (39:00):
He is a no drama draft pick, no, yeah, niche man.
Speaker 1 (39:04):
We have not heard anything about him in the way
we heard about Caleb Williams last year, in the way
we heard about Shador Sanders this year, in the way
that we would hear about other number one overall picks.
Very little attention being paid to cam Ward and very
little expectations, which also could play to the strength of
what you're talking about. What is looking at all four
(39:30):
of these teams your favorite division bet.
Speaker 3 (39:37):
I mean it's it's gonna be Titans over wins in
their division.
Speaker 1 (39:39):
Odds, Titans over five and a half and Titans plus
seven to twenty.
Speaker 3 (39:43):
Yeah, just they really there's always mean to you. I talked
about there's teams.
Speaker 4 (39:52):
I have a couple of fourth play teams from last
year I like this year, but there's always one team,
just like we talked about with Washington and the Vikings,
And there's always random teams like last year that just
pop out of nowhere. And this this Tennessee really seems
like that team to me. So the fact that their
win total is so low based on public opinion, I
love that value.
Speaker 2 (40:11):
It is massively under expectations. Uh.
Speaker 1 (40:15):
I feel the same way about the Jags at plus
three hundred and over seven and a half.
Speaker 3 (40:22):
I like it.
Speaker 4 (40:23):
I told people I'm gonna be patient on the Jags
and I bet their win total and the bet their
divisional odds after their bye week, just because it's it's
the start from hell for them. I just can't believe
the schedule makers gave them such an insane start to
the season.
Speaker 3 (40:35):
But it's it's.
Speaker 4 (40:36):
Awesome because again you have a new coaching staff. It's
feet to the fire. You're gonna you're gonna learn quick.
Either you're gonna have a huge advantage on teams because
they're not gonna be prepared for the Jaguars, or they're
just gonna get rolled because it's just it's a brutal
like the coaching the coaching staffs that they're going against
in the first couple of weeks. It's just it's a
really tough start the season for the Jaguars.
Speaker 1 (40:54):
Look, if they get rolled, you got to start thinking
about what's gonna happen to Trevor Lawrence and how they're
going to manage that in the future, because that will
have been basically now going into a third season where
they have not exceeded expectations. Last year, he was only
injured in the second half of the year. Yeah, so
(41:16):
the first half he was terrible. And we've talked about this, like,
I remember one year we loved Trevor Lawrence. I don't
know what it was thirty forty to one to lead
the league in passing touchdowns, because we felt like he
had progressed so far and then oftentimes in the red
zone it looked.
Speaker 2 (41:33):
Like he regressed.
Speaker 1 (41:34):
So this to me feels like make it or break
a year for Trevor Lawrence. I know there's contract issues involved,
but if he doesn't perform this year and this team
doesn't do well, then what are you fucking doing?
Speaker 2 (41:48):
What are you waiting for?
Speaker 4 (41:51):
Yeah, but again it'll be tough because with this division,
they could just once again get to seven wins.
Speaker 3 (41:56):
And even if.
Speaker 4 (41:57):
They want to move on from, what do you do?
You don't have the dress. You're not high enough in
the draft to move on from. So yeah, they're I
think they're stuck with him for at least two more
seasons just because of the money.
Speaker 3 (42:09):
Like we talked about the contract and.
Speaker 4 (42:11):
I just we talk he's inconsistent, Like he'll he'll win games,
he can steal games for you, but then he'll turn
out against one of the worst teams and just not
show up or have a ton of turnovers. And yeah,
we're just we're on the same thing with the Jags.
It's like it's a make or break year and we like,
we like the unknown, but you like a little more
than I do well.
Speaker 1 (42:28):
I feel like I feel like my favorite bet has
a little more you can see it to believe it substance,
even though it's probably wrong, and your favorite bet has
a you gotta believe it and understand that this is
going to happen somewhere in the NFL, and you're making
your bet on this team and this quarterback to do that,
(42:51):
to make that Commander's type leap, to make that Texans
type leap from twenty twenty three.
Speaker 2 (42:57):
Whether they're saying yours with more conviction.
Speaker 4 (42:59):
I say this Titan's win thing that when I when
I do these, when I grade these out, this is
like one of the better higher grades I have on
a win total like this has a higher than a
sixer chance of hitting. That's like when I when I
run those type of numbers, that's really good win total wise.
That's why I'm so I mean you months ago, I
was really emphatic about the team because as soon as
I saw that, the fact that that's that's how big
(43:19):
of a difference it is putting in a quarterback at
a rookie that is that much.
Speaker 3 (43:23):
Hot higher grade than I have it on Will Levis.
Speaker 4 (43:25):
It's it is that big of an upgrade to a
team that last Y Reid bad luck and we talk
all the time about the last place schedule like it's
it's a cheak code. It's again, we'll get into all
these win totals and different teams. There's teams I don't
love that much. Like we started the Jaguars. I'm not
in love with them, but I get why Chad's bender
over because their second half is very easy. Yeah right,
(43:46):
and they so they could easily have a nice stretch
than the season. So that's that's something we're really breaking
down here is we believe in these teams. I'm giving
you my high hopes of this Tennessee team, but like
I said, I'm probably gonna be fading them week one
because it's such a bad spot.
Speaker 2 (44:01):
All right.
Speaker 1 (44:02):
So that was the AFC South Divisional betting preview. We
will return with our next episode Thursday on the Action
Network YouTube page when we Talk NFC South.
Speaker 2 (44:15):
Also check out at.
Speaker 1 (44:17):
Real Chad Milman on YouTube forclips and highlights.
Speaker 2 (44:21):
Download us from Spotify.
Speaker 1 (44:22):
Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe
me a Spotstars say whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (44:26):
Feedback is the gifts. Until next time, Love, you. Action
Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
Speaker 1 (44:39):
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