September 18, 2025 • 47 mins
Caleb Williams has played seven games outside of the 1pm Sunday window in his career. His Chicago Bears are 0-7 in those games, losing by an average of over 11 points per game. Stats like these from Action data guru Evan Abrams are on the menu today, as our trio of Stuckey, Kendra Middleton and Brandon Kravitz lay out their top picks for NFL Week 3. We also hear about the Daniel "Indiana" Jones, the chances for a massive "Underdog Week," the overreaction to the Green Bay Packers, and so much more.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:09):
Welcome to the Favorites from the Action Network. I'm your
host Brandon Kravitz, joined by my fellow d Jens. Your
new crew here at the Favorites, Kendrick Middleton and the
Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation Stucky with us today. On
today's show, we're going to submit our official plays for
week three in the NFL. We've got sides. We'll talk totals,
(00:30):
props and put together our three Musketeers parlay. Everything is
on the table. Like and subscribe wherever it is that
you are tuned in. All right, guys, update on the
concert last night, sleep Token not bad, pretty good performers.
You know now my genre of music, but I enjoyed it.
You got to lean into the moment. A lot of
aggressive head nodding in the crowd, a lot of fishnet stockings,
(00:53):
some medieval garb in there. I wore you guys told
me to wear black. So I went to the Spirit
Halloween Store because I couldn't think of where else I
could get something that kind of fit the vibe. So
I went with this here for the for those watching
on video, this Jason mask shirt that says I wish
it was Friday. Are we good with this.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
That is the most millennial dad thing I've ever seen
in my life. Are we kidding?
Speaker 1 (01:20):
I walk out of the bathroom last night before we
go to the concert. My wife goes, what are you doing?
I was like, I'm leaning into the moment, and she's like, no,
that's not what people wear to this.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
It seems like you're fishing for a compliment now that
you didn't get last night. You're the only chance.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
I have at this point.
Speaker 3 (01:41):
Amazing shirt.
Speaker 1 (01:42):
We'll start with our shrimply unbelievable stat of the week,
courtesy of Action Network Director of Research, Evan Abrams collabsed
with Kendra's Lovely and Pregnant Rainbow Shrimp, Monica Lashrimsky and
Oj Shrimpson. How they doing, By the way, before we
get to the stats, how the yes, I don't know
how long the pregnancy lasts for a.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
Trump, She's sognant, she's so pregnant. I have been trying
to wait to change her water and add chemicals in
there because obviously it evaporates as water does, because I
don't want to disrupt her flow. But it's getting to
a point where I need to do it. I just
I'm nervous she's been pregnant for so long. I don't
know if it has something to do with the incess bit.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
Take them to the shrimp doctor. I guess we'll figure
out what's going on, all right, you guys take your pick.
I'm gonna run through three that Evan dropped into our
chat here because I could not decide which one stood
out to me the most. They're all pretty amazing, shrimply unbelievable.
I should say, let's stick to the branding. NFL closing
favorites of four points or more are twelve and oho
(02:37):
straight up this season. First time in NFL history that
faves of four points or more are undefeated straight up
through two weeks. Okay, so lock that one in your
memory bank. Number two an underdog on short rest, tough spot.
That's Miami, Houston, Las Vegas. These teams are twenty nine
one oh one straight up twenty two percent over the
(03:00):
last three seasons. C J Stroud one in three in
that spot, Tua who plays tonight as of this recording,
and five straight up Gino Smith oh to nine. Okay. Third,
Caleb Williams has started seven career NFL games in the
afternoon or primetime window. Four pm or later. The Bears
are zero to seven straight up in those games, losing
(03:23):
by an average of eleven point one points per game.
As a Bears backer, this one wants to make me
absolutely puke stucky. Which of those? I know, that's a
lot right there to digest. Which of those stands out
to you the most?
Speaker 3 (03:38):
I mean, anything in week three? Week three is all
about trying not to overreact. So and that's to Caleb
Williams time. That doesn't really do anything for me. But
a lot of the trends that you'll read in Evan's
piece and that you'll read a mind and then we'll
talk about here and on the Action Over podcast that
I just did with Rayvaughn, they're about how in week
(03:59):
three you would have been better off just sleeping or
going to concerts through the first two weeks of the
NFL and not having any idea of what went on
and not seeing anything to cloud your judgment like a
lot of like professional betters, you're better off sticking with
what you had prior, your priors prior to the year
(04:21):
than updating anything really drastically. Because it's a sample size
of two. For example, we just don't know how yeah,
just two games, you'd take any So if you went
back last year and you just took any random subset
of two games for a team, probably doesn't tell the
picture or paint the picture of what that team really was.
So for example, are the Colts really now? The greatest
(04:45):
show under is Daniel Jones now? And I'll but probably not.
He's more likely than not to turn back into a pumpkin.
And the Colts probably won't look this good all year.
So anything like that and what that leads to this week,
there is usually an underdog week. Week three hunderdogs are
fifty five percent against the spread teams that are zero
and two, right, So all right, I just saw this
(05:07):
team lose twice. They look awful. I don't I really
don't want to bet them. The market might be overselling
them a bunch or too much. Own two underdogs. Historically,
since twenty forty and twenty one against the spread, that's
close to sixty six percent covering by a field goal
per game. So for example, tonight, who wants to bet
(05:27):
the Dolphins after what we've seen? They haven't, they haven't
covered a game, they look awful, and the Bills just
they beat the Ravens and then blow out the Jets.
Who's everyone's favorite underdog darling last week? Including mine? I
bet them, and by the way I fell for it.
I looked at the Jets week one, we talked about
(05:48):
this cloud in my judgment, and guess what, Fields was
still pumpkin and the Jets still look bad. So by
the way I did bet the Dolphins tonight, partly is
just like this line's too high. Take about what I saw.
So anything that speaks to like the overreactions of week
one and two, those are the trends that I like
because it's just the overarching idea that look, ignore and
(06:11):
don't overreact. This is still the NFL.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
Yeah, I'm on the other side, by the way, so
we're gonna go opposite on the Thursday night football game.
I think that perhaps the Dolphins were just overrated going
into the season and we didn't realize just how bad
they are, and they are dealing with some offensive line injuries.
The Bills no Ed Oliver, no Matt Milano tonight, so
that is a big deal for them. Kendra, what about
(06:35):
the shrimply unbelieved.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
Loser has to buy winner. Let's go ahead to have
loser by winner a Halloween shirt.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
Of just a plain black T shirt we're getting from
Matt Mitchell in the chat. Yeah, okay, so we go
back to because you have a spirit Halloween store. Imagine
that's a nation wide chain this time of year, right,
you have one of those where you're at I have
no idea.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
Wait, I have an idea. Have you guys seen like.
Speaker 4 (07:03):
The Bachelor Bachelorette trips where they buy each other like
a T shirt with the worst saying that they can
possibly find on it. Loser gets to or wine to
buy the loser the craziest shirt they can find and
they have to wear it on an episode.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
Yeah, for sure, I'm down for that. A virtual handshake
on that. Kendra, Well, I got twelve. We'll call it twelve. Okay,
we'll call it twelve and then if there's a push,
we'll both wear the shirt. All right, Kendra, what do
you got?
Speaker 4 (07:33):
I brought my own stat and it is so stupid,
but I love a weird age.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
I'm so excited for this. You how the world, how
in the world did you come up with this?
Speaker 4 (07:42):
Anyway, just tell the people, No, I'm in a group chat. Okay,
so a bunch of my coworkers are really into like
numerology and astrology, which I'm not the biggest person in it,
but I love a weird angle for gambling at any point.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
So this was in our group chat today. The game
between the Lions and the Ravens is on a waxing
crescent moon. The Lions are nine and one during waxing
crescent moons the last two seasons.
Speaker 4 (08:07):
Hashtag astrology. I think I know where I'm going with this.
One nine and one's pretty nuts on.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
A specific moon's that's pretty crazy.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
Yeah, I want to find the connecting angle to that. Stucky.
If I asked you to draw a waning crescent moon,
do you think you can do it?
Speaker 2 (08:24):
It's waxing all it is.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
If Jared Goff can see the moon, fade him. If
he can't inside a dome, bet him. That makes more
sense to me is I think it's about whether or
not golf can see the actual waxing, remaining moon. But
I can't say that I've ever dabbled in numerology. But
maybe maybe you got something there.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
Yep, we got lunar caps here on the podcast today.
There is something to that he plays better in domes.
You can't see a moon, the moon in a dome,
and it looks like based on a quick Google search,
the waxing crescent is very little of the moon that
you can see, so perhaps it is a moon related stat.
The more of the moon that golf can see. We're
(09:07):
trying to help you out here, Kendra, The more of
the moon that golf can see, the less he performs. Well,
let's get to some of the updates for these quarterbacks.
Justin Fields is out that has done nothing but create
Jets movement in the market, which is just bizarre to me.
Tyron Taylor has that started a game since twenty twenty three.
(09:28):
This idea that he is even a half point improvement
to what Justin Fields was feels off to me. Now,
part of this could also be Luke Getticky is injured,
so the Bucks are dealing with even more offensive line injuries.
Collijah Kanci's out for the year. How do you read this, Stucky.
As far as the line movement that we're seeing, it
(09:50):
seems like there's a lot of Jets sentiment in the market.
Speaker 3 (09:53):
Yeah, I played the Jet I mean I played the
Jets again. I played them seven. I mean, think about it.
The Jets close five and a half home against the
Bills last week. Now, obviously they got blown out. The
Bills that just knew exactly what they were gonna run.
They were run blitzing, They blew up everything possible, and
the Jets were running a terrible defense against Josh. Against
Josh Allen, running like cover one, it was insane. Never
run like cover one against Ount. He's either gonna find
(10:14):
someone or he's just gonna run for first down, which
is what happened in the entire game. But that closed. The
Markets had five and a half and the Bills had
a couple of defensive injuries. But now you're going to Tampa.
Tampa's on a short week, they're banged up, and this
is seven like. So that's we're basically saying, like the
Bills and the Bucks are in the same neighborhood. Absolutely not.
(10:36):
I get Ty Taylor hasn't played in a while. He's
He's been very good against the number his career. He's
thirty four to twenty one and four against the spread,
sixty two percent, seven three and one against the spread
when catching seven or more. The drop off isn't drastic
like fields. His whole career has been a terrible passer.
We saw that in week two. We saw the flash
in the pan week one. That was obviously the exception
(10:57):
of the rule. But Tyrod Taylor is a professional back
up on the guy you want when you want to
cover a touchdown because he doesn't turn the ball over
top five all time among qualified quarterbacks an interception rate,
doesn't turn it over, can run the offense. And this
Bucks team like they honestly could be going too. They
won on basically the final play two weeks in a row.
(11:19):
Baker Mayfield is six turnover worthy plays, no interceptions. He's
been pretty fortunate and they could easily be ohing to
the Jets should have beat the Steelers. Like if the
Jets are sitting one and one and the Bucks are
rowing two, this line would have been four. Let's call
it a point for a point downgrade from Fields to Taylor,
(11:40):
this line I think should be around five. That's before
even accounting for all the Bucks injuries you mentioned Kancy,
They're still shortthanded at receiver. Worst is out one of
the best left tackles in the NFL. Geticky's most likely
going to miss. Solid right tackle. Then Cody Monk their
the right goal he's now out for the year. They're
(12:01):
down three starting offensive line mean, they've already had to
move their center to left tackle. Like it's a mess.
So look, ignore what you saw last week. I know
it's painful if you want to beat the Jets again
after what they did last week, but I got to
take the seven here, so I'm rolling with the Jets again.
Hopefully I don't end up with egg on my face again.
Speaker 4 (12:22):
For me, it's more so just when does the Bucks
luck run out? I get that it's only week three.
I mean we did watch the Kansas City Chiefs carry
that luck through the entire season last year, so maybe
it just doesn't for certain teams, but they've got the
injury bug. The number is huge. Tyrod Taylor is a
pros pro. He can go out there and win you
a game two games. We've seen him do it throughout
his career.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
For me, it's like, I just don't think that the
drop off is that significant between the two and the
number is just too big. Tyrod is a pros pro.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
I agree the luck rank Kings do of the Bucks
pretty high over at Action Network. Before he pivot off
of this, Evan, if you could pop in one of
the stats that really stood out to me because I
want to be on Tampa, but I do respect where
STUCKYU and Kendra and where the market is coming from
on the Jets, and part of this, it's hard to
not ignore the fact that I was heavy on the
(13:11):
Jets last week. That was my number one play and
they burned me hard. Try not to bake that into
your analysis, but it's just human nature. This is Baker
Mayfield's eleventh start on short rest since twenty twenty in
those games, and his team scored twenty plus points nine
or more times overall, six and four against the spread
(13:33):
in those games. Evan, this is an interesting one to me,
the Baker on short rest. Not every trend, not every
stat that you put in the primer carries an equal
amount of weight. How much weight do you put into
that for the Baker's stat As far as how he
plays when he doesn't have a lot of time to prepare, I.
Speaker 5 (13:53):
Mean, I think it's just he's an erratic quarterback. I
think the turnover where he plays at stuck mentioned earlier
in the fact that he's had no turns is kind
of kind of the way he plays football. So I
think the fact that he scores a lot of points.
I like the Jets plus seven. I'm with you guys
in terms of that play overall, just based off the injuries.
I think the short resting is just the fact that again,
like he's a passer in the past, a lot of turnovers,
(14:15):
a lot of interceptions, which leads to the other team
scoring points. I think the six and four number, I'd
have to look back, but I imagine some of those
games as underdogs.
Speaker 3 (14:23):
But I doubt he's a favored by a touchdowner more
correct both games, and like.
Speaker 5 (14:27):
Yeah, I would have to go back and see, I'm
not sure in any of those games he'd be favored
by that much. Would probably be a good added note
to it. So I think the weight is if anything,
I'd honestly look to the over like Tyrod not doing
a ton of turnovers, Like the totals come down two
and a half points or so from the open, So
maybe something to that in the sense that you know
(14:48):
Baker's gonna be slinging it here.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
Yeah, I do want to mention I took the Bucks
minus seven. I placed it on the app. I am
gonna look, I took the Bucks minus seven. I am
going to look to buy out of that at the
earliest possible opportunity. Right now, I see six and a
half's everywhere on the Jets, and so I'm gonna have
to wait to see if that pops back up.
Speaker 3 (15:09):
They're still seven seven you can get a seven. Uh,
there's sevens of DraftKings last I checked. I will say
this could do the one thing. This could actually work
against him here in a short week because he did
get banged up a little bit at the end of
that game. Yeah right, he was able to finish, but
he heard his knee. Remember he went down. He gravitz.
We don't know your adrenaline's going was a game. If
(15:30):
that like flares up, he's gonna play. But like maybe
he's not his mobile. Maybe he's just not at one
hundred percent. I don't hate the total look. I think
the Jets will have to throw a bit more. They're
gonna have to change up their offense from what they
did last week a bit. They're gonna have some new looks,
probably that Tampa is not ready for. And maybe the
Bucks go tempo here because their offensive line is decimated,
(15:52):
Like they might have to start a rookie at guard.
So in order to keep that Jets pass rush at
Bay using tempo, which they were flying a bit last
week to protect their offensive line against those Texans pass rushers.
So you could see the Bucks maybe utilize a little
bit more tempo this week. So I don't hate that.
Speaker 4 (16:08):
Look they were super productive running the ball, though, I
mean they were, they kind of kicked the shit out
of them, So I don't know. I don't know if
they change a whole lot. It's been working for them.
I get the injuries, but if it's working, it's working.
Speaker 1 (16:20):
Uh. There's at least a chance that brock Purty starts
this week. He's taking reps behind Mac Jones. I actually
think he's third right now at practice, but if he
gears up for a full practice on Friday, there's a
chance that he plays as a forty nine ers better
this week. I honestly don't care. And we've seen that
line is it's been one of the biggest shifts so
far this week. I got the Niners money line at
(16:42):
plus one hundred right now they are minus two and
a half out there. I honestly don't care if Perdy plays,
and I'm kind of in on the Mac Jones experience.
Also Arizona. That team outscored nineteen to seven in the
second half against Kendrick sad Cats. So definitely a team
that I looking to fade. Where do you sit, Kendra.
As far as perhaps putting the mac Jones hate down
(17:05):
for a week and backing the Niners, I.
Speaker 4 (17:08):
Don't want to take the cheese. That's where I'm at
in this game. It feels too obvious. It feels like
the forty nine Ers should be the choice here. Don't
care about the injuries, don't care if Prety plays. The
Cardinals do not deserve the wins that they've had this season.
They have looked like crap against terrible teams. And regardless
of the fact that the forty nine ers have a
lot of injuries, they draft well.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
I'm higher on Kyle Shanahan than a lot of people.
Speaker 4 (17:32):
I think that he gets a lot of hate, some
of it deserves, some of it not. This forty nine
Ers team just has depths that the Cardinals don't. I'm
actually going to make part of my personality hating Kyler
Murray at this point because of a social media post
he had this week. I'm so anti Kyler Murray now
it's not even funny, I'm praying on his downfall. So
regardless of if it's Mac Jones or Kyler Murray, I'm
(17:53):
gonna hate this game. This just feels too obvious with
the forty nine ers that I feel like, I'm like,
what am I missing? I'm trying to convince myself that
the bet that feels like the easy bet you shouldn't bet.
Am I wrong here for thinking that? Because I feel
like every time I'm like, that's easy money is when
I get burned.
Speaker 3 (18:13):
I can't bet this game personally. Yeah, sometimes it can
feel like that in the NFL, or it might look
too easy for a reason. But I don't know if
pretty or Jones is going to play, and if Party
does plays one hundred pcent, I would assume they rest
him here. You know, there is a couple point difference.
But the other thing is the Cardinals second, I don't
know who's going to play in the Cardinal secondary. All
(18:34):
three of their corners are hurt. One went to IR
one didn't practice yesterday, And I was actually liking their
secondary coming into the year after some of the additions,
and will Johnson looked really good. He didn't practice yesterday.
Williams went on ir Melton was banged up, so like,
who's playing corner for the Cardinals. I don't know. This
(18:56):
is pure, pure stay away for me.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
Time for an Evan Abrams trend. Here, the forty nine
Ers have an opportunity to start three and oh against
the spread against the Cardinals this week. That would be
the first time they've done that since two thousand and nine,
and that was their only three and oh ats start
in forty years. So, Kendra, you are on the money
with saying if it feels too easy, you might want
(19:22):
to stay away. I'm happy with where I'm sitting. This
is not a position that I want to buy out in,
but I got it at a really good price. I
don't think that forty nine Ers minus two and a
half is a smart bet right now. The most heavily
bet games of the week so far, according to Action
Network tracking Thursday Night Football. Those standalone spots are always
going to be high on the list. Packers, Browns, Chiefs Giants,
(19:43):
that's Sunday Night Football and Eagles Rams. These are some
really polarizing games for sports betters. A disclaimer that is
worth mentioning. And I know that we are on an
NFL betting podcast. But you do not have to bet
every game that's out there. Forget your fomo. Only bet
the games that you feel like you have a good
(20:04):
read on. I'm on eight games this week as it
stands right now, we'll probably end up adding more to
the mix. I have two teasers and a total. I
don't need my money tied up on the Cleveland Browns,
So guys, I'm good just staying away from this Packers Browns.
It feels like people are gonna want to bet this
game to make a statement a statement of how good
the Green Bay Packers are or a statement of how
(20:27):
big their balls are by betting on the Cleveland Browns
and taking the points here. So I'm it's a stay
away for me or either of you on this football game.
Speaker 4 (20:38):
I wish I'd gotten in on the six and a half,
but I didn't get there in time. Because if I'd
gotten in on the six and a half, I probably
would have gotten in on it. The only thing that
I could potentially get to the window on is the
total of forty one and a half in this game,
just because I think what's likely to happen is the
Packers get up comfortably and then sit starters, and even
though they sit starters, I don't think it's going to
(20:59):
be that big of a I don't think the Browns
are going to be able to put up points. The
Packers defense is just too insane. I think, genuinely, what's
going to happen. Packers are going to get a.
Speaker 2 (21:06):
Comfortable lead sid starters, and it's that's just how it's
going to go. I might be on the under.
Speaker 3 (21:12):
I bet the Browns, so again, ignore what do you
I think this line should probably be seven. Do you
have to remember the Browns so far have played Joe
Burrow and that Bengals offense and Lamar Jackson and the
Ravens offense. The Ravens offense that did whatever wanted against
the Bills last week. Don't don't look at the final score,
(21:35):
which is forty one to seventeen. They had Derrick Henry
had eleven carries for twenty yards. They had two hundred
and forty yards of offense. The Ravens scored on a
bunch of flute plays and then you know that, a
couple of defensive scores and then Lamar Jackson running around
doing Lamar Jackson things. The Browns also held the Bengals
to two yards in the second half, two yards. Their
(21:55):
defense is playing at an elite level at home, catching
over a touchdo out. I had to take it again.
Does it feel scary to take the Browns? Yeah? Does
it feel scared to fade the Packers? Yes'm I guess
I'm making a statement of both. I think the Packers
are legit. They were the only Super Bowl future I
placed it in May. It was before Parsons got there.
I love this team. But is there a chance that
(22:18):
the Packers aren't this great? Absolutely? Like maybe Week one
the Lions with their new coordinators, they were just a mess.
What the Commanders, I'm not that high on this year.
And maybe like there's just two games that you have
to remember. And the Ravens were laying eleven and a
half last week at home, and now the against the Browns. Now,
(22:38):
the Browns are catching eight and a half at home,
adding one point for home field either way. And now
we're saying the Ravens and the Packers are in like
we're pricing them in a similar manner. I can't get there.
I'll make the Packers prove it to me. I think
this will be a lower scoring game. I agree with Kendra,
which makes the points even more valuable. So I took
the Browns. I think the Packers love like this is
(22:59):
the peak. This is the peak of their value, I think,
and who wants to bet the Browns after last week?
But I trust their defense to keep them in this
at home, And yeah, I took. I took eight and
a half.
Speaker 1 (23:10):
Browns are pass It's definitely Browns are passed. But for
me it is a strong pass because I am buying in.
I think obviously we could all be overreacting positively or
negatively to the things that we see through the first
two weeks. I think the Packers are this good, and
if they are this good, this numbers should probably be
closer to ten. But you know, this is what we
(23:31):
tend to do. So eight and a half for a
home team that has a good defense. You have to
have some redeeming quality in order to place a bet
on a team, and the Browns at least have that.
Are you guys ready? Four our three musketeers parlay all
for one and one for all last week? Kendra, you
were the one that carried the team. You had the
(23:51):
Panthers plus six and a half against the Cardinals, Stucky
and I did not get home with our bets. So
I'm gonna let you kick us off. You have two nominees,
and then Stucky and Ill we'll decide which one we
throw into the favorites parlay.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
So I'm on the Colts and the Lions this week,
but I gave you guys options between two anytime touchdowns.
I'm calling it the Battle of the touchdown list? Stars.
Speaker 4 (24:17):
Are we going Lad McConkey for in anytime or BTJ
for in any time? Because my whole thing is the
fact that it's about to be Week three. Neither of
I would say the two best receivers on both of
these teams haven't scored a touchdown.
Speaker 2 (24:32):
You the fact that they haven't been involved. It's time.
It's got to be here. I think the values here.
It's not going to get any better for either of
them this season. BTJ, big big, big revenge game for
the Jaguars.
Speaker 4 (24:42):
I don't know if you guys remember the Aziz all
sha year situation last year with Trevor Lawrence and how
that all unfolded. Texan's coming back to Jacksonville BTJ allegedly
having an injured wrist. Apparently one of his friends died recently,
just having like an all time low on the BTJ train.
I think they've got to get him involved, got to
get his confidence up, got to go to him in
the red zone, constantly has to score this week. Lad McConkey,
(25:05):
on the other hand, I hadn't any time for him
in Week one. I thought that he was the best
option for them to throw too in that game. Didn't happen,
didn't get to it last week because of that. Sitting
here now got to be lad McConkie time. Which one
are you guys in on?
Speaker 3 (25:21):
I'll say you gotta go maconky because I just, I
just we both have are gonna have tough corner matchups.
But I think the Broncos Chargers is a sneaky over
and I just don't know BTJ. Maybe he's going through
some other stuff because it's his friend, as you mentioned,
did die. But I don't know if he's fully healthy,
(25:41):
so maybe there is an injury. So because of that uncertainty,
this this Chargers offense is rolling right now. The Broncos
defense might not be as good as many thought coming
into the year.
Speaker 2 (25:54):
Have them in fantasy. It's killing me.
Speaker 3 (25:56):
Oh yeah, So I think we got to go Maconkey there.
Speaker 1 (26:00):
We're gonna have a tie split. So BRIANTJ does have
a touchdown, he had a rushing touchdown. He just doesn't
have a But I think they're gonna force feed him.
This is all that Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence have
been asked about this week in Jacksonville.
Speaker 3 (26:16):
And I think that is he healthy is the question.
I wouldn't. I would agree with you in principle, But is.
Speaker 1 (26:21):
Health the health I think impacts his ability to confidently
catch passes over the middle. It doesn't. I don't think
a wrist injury is gonna is gonna stop him from
going over the top of the defense and you know
go those but that.
Speaker 3 (26:35):
That going over the middle, that will reduce your chances
of ways to score.
Speaker 1 (26:41):
Corner. It's a corner in the end zone, fade touchdown
pass from Trevor.
Speaker 3 (26:47):
Wills against the one of the best corners in the NFL.
Break Yeah.
Speaker 1 (26:56):
Well, the price also matters here. Can we get it?
Because I want the or payout if we're going between
these two.
Speaker 4 (27:03):
He was one sixty and BTJ was one for maybe
hold on McConkie won sixty. BTJ won forty five corracked.
Speaker 1 (27:16):
Evan break the tie.
Speaker 5 (27:19):
McConkie, all right, you scoring game, He'll he'll figure it out,
thank you.
Speaker 2 (27:23):
Ev all right, I need BTJ to catch a touchdown.
Speaker 4 (27:26):
No more, no more rushing. I need you to catch something, please.
I can't sit here and sweat this out any longer.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
It's it's Keenan Allen that throws me off because he's
sold I know, but he's like he's not going away.
And then you have Quentin Johnston who's hogging all of
the touchdowns. So between those between Alan gobbling up targets
and and then Johnson gobbling up the touchdowns. And this
team still does want to run the ball a little bit,
even though they haven't been good at it. All right, stucky,
(27:52):
we got McConkie. Anytime touchdown in there? Your nominees, please.
Speaker 3 (27:58):
Let's see. I mean, you guys are probably not gonna
want to bet a lot of mine. So what I
bet so far to say, I've bet the Dolphins. I
have the brown. So I just talked about uh and
these weeked I mean I could go on, I could
go on for days about the trends of oh and
two teams I own two underdogs already mentioned forty twenty
(28:18):
one and one against the spread. I wondered I was
catching over seven in Week three. It's like double overreaction,
so we could go to Browns. I did play the
the Rams, so I guess I'll throw out the Rams
that Actually, I think you guys can stomach that one
or that's a yeah the shoes h So we'll go
Rams one. I mean, look, this Eagles offense. I thought
(28:40):
Cominer was gonna take a step back because of the
coordinator change. I thought the defense is gonna take a
step back because of everything they lost, and that's that's
what we've seen. And last week, without that Kelsey drop,
they probably lose to the Chiefs. And think about this,
this Eagles offense, like they they had two They've completed
two passes over ten yards. They played the Cowboys, who
just gave up seven trillion yards to Russell Wilson, and
(29:03):
then they played the Chiefs, who have issues in the
back end of their defense. They didn't they got carved
by Justin Herbert and they didn't. They couldn't throw against either,
so and then their defense is just not getting the
same amount of pressure. I think it's gonna take us
about the play calling is bad McVeigh eighteen eleven and
two against the spread as a dog of three or
more fourteen seven and one against the spread in the
Eastern time zone. And here's my Bowld prediction. I wish
(29:26):
I could put a bet on this. McVeigh went to
the league office about the Toush push.
Speaker 4 (29:31):
Yes, I was just gonna say the conspiracy theory I'm in.
Speaker 3 (29:34):
They're gonna call They're gonna call a false start or two.
Now they might call neutral zone infraction two, but who
cares if they call both. So the Eagles are always
going to get their toush push. They it's fourth and one,
they're always gonna get it. So if you call a
neutral zone infection they get they get the first time away.
But if they call false starter or two, that could
be the difference between say they're at the goal line,
(29:56):
it's fourth and goal with to one oh false start
off sides on the offense. For that's a difference between
a field going to touchdown. That could be four points.
So if it's a midfield, that's difference between keeping the
drive going and probably scoring or punting. So a little
potential hit an edge there. But This Rams offense is
playing really well. Their defense can get pressures, playing really well,
and I just don't trust this Eagles offense yet.
Speaker 1 (30:17):
Right now, I don't I think you. I think you
can stop the sale. Honestly, Yeah, I think we're all good.
Speaker 4 (30:22):
The Rams are getting the league makeup calls this week.
I'm not betting on this game, but if I know
one thing, I know that they are going to be
getting these makeup calls for last week. They're going to
benefit off of this, and they the league wants to
ban the toush push and they're going to make the
case to do it at all.
Speaker 3 (30:39):
I want to talk about this week too, so it
makes sense to send a message.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
Yep.
Speaker 1 (30:44):
Yeah. The betting splits are in our favor as well.
When a team has been catching more than sixty percent
of the bets, they have not been covering so far
this year. Right now, the Eagles seventy three percent of
the bets, the Rams sixty eight percent of the money.
So that's definitely feel like the right side. But can
I help the ante on this. I think we should
throw the Rams money line into the parlay instead of
(31:06):
the spread.
Speaker 3 (31:07):
I'm fine with that little Rams revenge from last year.
Think I remember they went. McVay knows how to. I
don't know how what he does or how he gets
his team ready, but these East Coast.
Speaker 2 (31:17):
Games he's good on. Isn't he good on the road
or no?
Speaker 3 (31:20):
Yeah, he's He's fourteen seven to one against the spread
on the Eastern time zone like he he always has
his team ready for these, like they almost they in
the snow with old Stafford. They were twenty yards away
from beating the Eagles last year. And the Eagles were
a better team with a better off its coordinator last season.
And I think the Rams overall have improved from last
year's team. So yeah, we can throw a Rams money
line in there.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
Are you worried about Stafford's back at all?
Speaker 5 (31:42):
Matter?
Speaker 3 (31:42):
Yeah? It's always a flare up, for sure. And part
of me is just like, all right, am I overreacting?
Speaker 1 (31:49):
Right?
Speaker 2 (31:49):
Am?
Speaker 3 (31:49):
I overreacting to what we've seen from the Eagles. But
this was my thought process coming into the year. And
then like, am I overreacting to the Rams who have
played the Texans and Titans? Maybe? But all right, let's
let's throw the Rams money line in with mcconfie touchdown.
Speaker 1 (32:02):
Yeah, we did catch that Kia reference right there by
the way. All right, my two the Rabbits.
Speaker 2 (32:08):
I hate you for both of these so much.
Speaker 4 (32:11):
I'm on the opposite side of you for both of them.
Why are you making me choose between Satan and the
de I.
Speaker 1 (32:16):
Do have, I do have more than two. I just
threw two in there for simplicity.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
So yeah, dag me I.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
I mean I left mac Jones out of it. I
am on the Niners too, But.
Speaker 2 (32:26):
Patts plus Jones, pat.
Speaker 1 (32:28):
Plus Pats plus one and a half against the Steelers,
Titans plus three and a half against the Indianapolis Colts. Guys,
I know what that. We said on Tuesday that it
was either Sunday or to one of our last episodes.
We said that at some point we're gonna have to
fade this Indianapolis Colts team. Well, I say, why not us?
Why not? Now? On the Tennessee Titans catching a field
(32:50):
goal and the hook. This is Danny Dimes on the
road as the public side against the divisional rival. You
talk about the Green Bay Packers reaching the peak of
the market. I think this is the Colts reaching the
peak of the market. Also, teams that are own two
straight up are thirty one and twenty seven straight up
(33:10):
forty seventeen and one against the spread. That's seventy percent
in week three since twenty ten. Betting the Titans to me,
feels like an absolute must this week. I don't think
we should wait any longer on this Colt's fade. We
could even throw the Titans plus four in there, because
I'm seeing that out there.
Speaker 3 (33:31):
Yeah, Titans plus four, you could. There's a little bit
more expensive four and a half they if anyone's into
do theory, which I'm not. But the Titans are zero
to nine against the spread in their past nine home games,
so maybe nobody beats the Titans nine ten times in
a row against the spread in Nashville, but those fans
(33:52):
have not seen. I feel bad for season ticket holders
in Tennessee.
Speaker 4 (33:56):
No, they're horrible even they're so mean's male eater?
Speaker 1 (34:02):
Yah? Should I do the pat sale? So I have
the Pats plus one and a half at home. Pittsburgh's
last outright road win against the Patriots came in two
thousand and eight. Now is that relevant? No, But it's
a fun fact. That's not why I'm betting them. Like,
I really like the way the Patriots looked last week.
I know that they played against the Miami Dolphins and
that has a lot to do with it, but even
(34:23):
vermondre Stevenson looked good. And the Pittsburgh defense has been terrible.
They're twenty ninth in the league and scoring defense thirty
one in defensive success rate. Bad offense, bad defense. A
coach that can't beat New England for whatever voodoo reason,
not a deserving favorite on the road. So I like
backing the home dog.
Speaker 2 (34:43):
I don't know where to go here.
Speaker 4 (34:45):
I am on the opposite side of both of these,
so I feel like I'm.
Speaker 2 (34:50):
Putting in a parlay against my best interest.
Speaker 3 (34:54):
I also like dolls playing Dallas practice yesterday.
Speaker 4 (34:57):
Okay, So I was listening to Rabel's press conference yesterday
and someone asked him if Gonzalez was gonna practice, and
Rabel's answer was, he's gonna do some stuff.
Speaker 3 (35:10):
That's an improvement, that's a step in the right direction
from doing nothing.
Speaker 4 (35:13):
But then I was listening to a podcast of some
Patriots insiders and they're saying that they're not sure, but
they feel like he'll probably come back for the Bills game.
So I genuinely don't know if he's playing, I'm gonna
lean towards no.
Speaker 2 (35:32):
God, I don't know they.
Speaker 3 (35:34):
Really need him back. I mean because that that's been
one of their weakest areas. Uh, because I thought Drake
May played well last week?
Speaker 2 (35:40):
Did rewatch that game like I promised that I would.
Speaker 3 (35:43):
Their secondary has been like just horrendous for two weeks
in a row, and Gonzales.
Speaker 1 (35:50):
Not sure it matters against this team. But I'm not.
Speaker 3 (35:52):
Saying well either, I'm just saying for the value of
getting Gonzalez back would be significant. I will also mention
this years have a on of injuries like there are defense.
They could be without four or five starters on defense,
and Watt just doesn't look like the same caliber player.
Credit to him for demanding the money when he did
get it, because I'm not sure he would have after
(36:13):
this season and what he looks like right now.
Speaker 4 (36:16):
I think high Smith is the only one who's ruled
out for the Steelers right now. I think everybody else
is expected to play, except I don't know about Joey
Porter Junior. I feel like he probably will play. My
big thing is that I get the TJ. Watt hasn't
been himself, but the Patriots offensive line has looked quote
unquote serviceable through these first two weeks, but they've got
(36:38):
a breakdown at some point. I mean, Campbell just keeps
getting penalty after penalty. Ah, I guess, I guess I'm
gonna go with the Titans. I hate this so much,
but yeah, I also have the.
Speaker 1 (36:54):
Bears plus one if you guys wanted a third option,
I really like that. But the blowout bounce back at home.
Speaker 3 (37:00):
Yeah, teas teams after a thirty point loss usually a
good bet.
Speaker 2 (37:04):
I like the Bears because they're oer and two at home.
Speaker 1 (37:07):
Okay, so let's you want to toss the other two
to the side. We go. Bears plus one is the
third leg sucky.
Speaker 3 (37:16):
Yeah, I'm okay with that. I mean, just teams that
lose by thirty plus sixty percent as a dog are
a favorite of under a field goal fifty five percent overall,
like going back forever. Like again, don't overreact. Usually you
might get a point or two value. The market's betting
against these teams, Like who wants to bet the Bears
after seeing them lose by thirty and they're owing two
and you saw the Cowboys win and the Bears secondary
is scary? They have like all these injuries going up
(37:39):
go up against the Cowboys receivers, but like this is
Dallas outdoors, there could be some wind. I'm cool with
the Bears. I will just throw one of my favorite
trends for the Titans, and the Titans injuries worry me
a bit, Like they have injuries offensive line and the secondary.
Excuse me on the offensive line and then the defensive line,
like they need sweat in there because take that he's
helpful for the run game. Takes attention away from Simmons.
(38:01):
So we'll see who ends up playing. But this goes
back to the whole theme of the podcast. Over reactions
Weeks two through five over the past twenty years, road
favorites after winning as a home underdog. So this is
early in the year. Everyone just saw a team win
as a home underdog that was expected to lose, and
(38:22):
then they go out on the road in their favorite
So this is a team that maybe overachieved early and
maybe people are thinking that is better than they really are.
This fits the Colts to a t so road favorites
weeks two through five early in the season, then that
win as a home dog, go on the road in
our favor seventeen thirty nine and one against the spread.
(38:43):
That's thirty percent. They're failing to cover by about six
points per game when favored by more than a field goal,
six and sixteen against the spread when they're playing a
team with a losing record, which is definitely the Titans
eleven twenty nine to one against the spread twenty seven
and a half percent. So like that just speaks to
this whole thing, like, hey, there's a there's a decent
(39:05):
chance the Colts. This is probably the peak of the
valley and they're probably not as good as we've seen,
and the Titans, I think are going to continue to
keep improving. So I was okay with the Titans.
Speaker 2 (39:16):
I'm not a Colts truther, but the Titans are ass.
Speaker 1 (39:20):
I think cam Ward is going to be a spread coverer.
Speaker 3 (39:22):
Though in Denver they were down three at the start
of the fourth quarter, they lost Zeitler, their offensive line,
and then it led to a sack that really led
to a short field touch on flipped the game and
they didn't have sweat in there. Simmons had nothing left
in the fourth quarter. So that's what concerns me here.
But the Colts pass rush isn't the Rams, and it's
not the Broncos. They're like bottom five and Prussure eight.
(39:44):
So Ward might be a little bit more comfortable here
in this division game division like this. I think this
should be three max. So I was cool with both.
But Kenjer, I'm cool with the Bears too. Bears as
you can get plus one.
Speaker 2 (39:59):
Get ev into time break again.
Speaker 3 (40:02):
No, I'm cool with the Bears.
Speaker 4 (40:03):
Kender, Yeah, I'm cool with the Bears. I think the
Colts just have aura. Dude, I don't know what it is.
Speaker 2 (40:09):
I don't think that there was Daniel Jones as.
Speaker 1 (40:11):
I think they they probably have home aura, though I
think they play. I feel pretty confident in saying that
that team inside of that dome in Indianapolis, that's gonna
be a tough team to beat there.
Speaker 4 (40:21):
I'm going to tell you guys a secret. Do you
guys follow the seth Erkson kid who sings the songs
he writes about the Colts every week?
Speaker 1 (40:28):
Of course? How do you not?
Speaker 4 (40:30):
I bet on the Colts games, whether if the song
isn't a banger, I know to bet on the Colts,
and if it is a banger, I know to bet
against the Colts.
Speaker 2 (40:39):
This week not a banger.
Speaker 3 (40:41):
All right, we can we have a I'm going to
test you with this, Brandon. You have to we can
get like a whiteboard or a notepad, and we have
to keep track of all of Kender's crazy systems. So
we have some. We have Moon's no girl Dad's girl
Dad's Moons. Now, I don't know some singer.
Speaker 2 (41:01):
You don't know who Seth is the Colts kid.
Speaker 3 (41:04):
I doubt know. I actually I don't who is it.
Speaker 2 (41:07):
His name is Seth Erkson I R K S E N.
Speaker 4 (41:10):
And he writes songs every single week about the Colts matchups.
Speaker 3 (41:14):
Okay, so.
Speaker 1 (41:17):
To send this in slack and then I'll tell I
got my notepad here, We'll get that on.
Speaker 4 (41:21):
We'll get I can serve, I can start a system.
It's girl dads after their daughters born first when first
came back.
Speaker 3 (41:28):
W Moons.
Speaker 2 (41:31):
No, I'm not really high on the Moons. I just
the fact I couldn't ignore this one nine and one
on a particular moon kind of crazy. I'm and I
like a weird angle. And then yes, if it's not
a banger, I'm.
Speaker 4 (41:43):
Betting on the Colts. And then this week no bangers,
no bangers. We close my other show with it every
single week, just so everyone can get the vibe to.
Speaker 3 (41:55):
Your your Uh, it's our producer just said, you're waxing
and waning on your lunar takes.
Speaker 2 (42:02):
No, I'm not. I'm not. I'm not saying anything. I'm not.
I'm not always on the moon. I'm just saying this
one was too good to ignore.
Speaker 1 (42:10):
I'm not always on the moon. As it has to
be the line of the podcast. So we have Rams
plus one fifty five. We've got on the Monday line.
We've got Lad McConkie anytime touchdown. We've got the Bears
plus one estimate on price for at plus nine five.
We'll have this logged in the app. That right there
is going to be our three Musketeers parlay this week.
Speaker 3 (42:29):
You've better ruin it again this week, burn mine. I
didn't ruin anything because you already ruined it by then.
So like if you hadn't, my bet would have won.
Speaker 1 (42:37):
So we at least would have had a hedgeable opportunity
on Monday night. So I'll give you that. I just laugh.
Speaker 2 (42:44):
But we might be we might be cooking.
Speaker 3 (42:47):
What are you? Where are you? What are you guys watching?
What is your setup or what are you doing for
the games on Sunday?
Speaker 4 (42:55):
I feel like I'm working at six o'clock in the
morning on Sunday for f one and then I'm gonna
have a brunch thing that i have to go to after.
But I will be on my couch, three TVs in
a laptop immediately after that at one o'clock for the
rest of the day and I'm not moving.
Speaker 3 (43:12):
That sounds like That's sounds like mine. If I don't
go to the bar, then yeah, I have three TVs,
my laptop out and I'll eat a little gummy bear
around eleven yep, and then order some food. We'll do
my do college football podcast, Shout Out Big that's on campus,
(43:34):
listen to some voicemails, get yelled at, and.
Speaker 2 (43:36):
Then uh, wait, what's your game day meal?
Speaker 1 (43:40):
Uh?
Speaker 3 (43:40):
It depends. I don't have a I don't have a constant.
Maybe I'll get Zaxby's in the sauce, but yeah, I
don't need to do that. But uh, I'll order something
big and really good around here from like one of
my favorite staurants and just get a ton of food
and then yeah, sit for We'll be doing the live
show at Semple usually just sit down on the couch
(44:03):
from one until Sunday night football is over.
Speaker 2 (44:08):
Uh So I love being a piece of on Sundays.
Speaker 3 (44:12):
Yeah, that's the.
Speaker 1 (44:13):
Best Red Zone channel I am.
Speaker 3 (44:16):
Now.
Speaker 1 (44:17):
My kid is five years old, about to turn six.
He's just now into the idea of watching football and
he cheers for whoever has the lead. That's his thing
right now. But it is very confusing sitting back. Last
week was the first week I've watched Red Zone with him.
So he like gets into one game and then all
of a sudden they're onto the next one, and I'm
(44:37):
having to teach him that Scott Hansen has taking us
on a He's taking us on a magical carpet ride.
How he's five?
Speaker 2 (44:44):
Does he get the Witching Hour? Yet?
Speaker 1 (44:46):
We're not there yet.
Speaker 3 (44:48):
When you have a kid, how do you, like, do
you want to make sure to be a responsible father
that there they don't go down the path of becoming
a fan of a team that's going to lead to
a life of pain.
Speaker 2 (45:01):
So the Jaguars are awesome.
Speaker 3 (45:03):
Yeah, like you don't want to be for example, you
don't want to become a Jaguars fan.
Speaker 1 (45:08):
I'm a Dolphins fan.
Speaker 3 (45:12):
I do the Dolphins lost it? Like, do you want
you really wanted to be a Dolphins fan?
Speaker 1 (45:15):
Who not? Really? Not really? Right now, I think he's
on a good path. Whoever has more points, that's the
team that he cheers for, and I think it's a
good place to start when you're five. Okay, trying to
teach him the game, I did get up. So speaking
of rewatching Pats Dolphins, because he knows I'm a Dolphins fan,
he gets excited when the Dolphins are on the screen.
He woke up this is like Monday or Tuesday morning,
(45:37):
and I asked him, do you want to watch you know,
Bluie or Mickey Mouse, you know, one of his cartoons
when we get up in the morning, and he goes,
can we watch the Dolphins? And I was like, and
so he doesn't know that this is a painful experience
for me. I just but I'm excited that he wants
to watch football. So I turned the Pats Dolphins game on.
It's six o'clock in the morning to start the week.
(45:59):
I've already lived through this and now I have to
relive this. Friend, what do you do? And I'm not
gonna say no. I love the fact that he's asking
to watch football.
Speaker 2 (46:10):
Oh no, that is so tragic. We watched the Dolphins
and not the Patriots exactly.
Speaker 1 (46:18):
I mean, you know, the kids will pick up. Whatever
it is you get excited about, kids will get excited
about too. There's my dad advice for the week. Stucky.
Speaker 3 (46:25):
Okay, write that.
Speaker 1 (46:27):
Down almost ten to one on our three leg parlay.
That'll do it for this week's episode. Special Thanks to
the producers Gifford Gold, David Payne, and of course Matt Mitchell,
the one and only. Thank you for helping to build
this channel into what it is. You are a true
legend in my book. And if you need to cut
this at the end of the episode, by all means
(46:48):
do so, but it needed to be said. Thank you
from all of us. The Favorites will return next on
Sunday night. We'll have a full recap for you. We'll
see how he did with all of our bets. Thanks
so much for tuning in. We'll catch you next time
right here on the Favorites podcast. Let's catch these tickets.
Speaker 2 (47:06):
I know.
Speaker 1 (47:11):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available.
Speaker 2 (47:19):
Twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites from the Action Network. I'm your
host Brandon Kravitz, joined by my fellow d Jens. Your
new crew here at the Favorites, Kendrick Middleton and the
Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation Stucky with us today. On
today's show, we're going to submit our official plays for
week three in the NFL. We've got sides. We'll talk totals,
(00:30):
props and put together our three Musketeers parlay. Everything is
on the table. Like and subscribe wherever it is that
you are tuned in. All right, guys, update on the
concert last night, sleep Token not bad, pretty good performers.
You know now my genre of music, but I enjoyed it.
You got to lean into the moment. A lot of
aggressive head nodding in the crowd, a lot of fishnet stockings,
(00:53):
some medieval garb in there. I wore you guys told
me to wear black. So I went to the Spirit
Halloween Store because I couldn't think of where else I
could get something that kind of fit the vibe. So
I went with this here for the for those watching
on video, this Jason mask shirt that says I wish
it was Friday. Are we good with this.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
That is the most millennial dad thing I've ever seen
in my life. Are we kidding?
Speaker 1 (01:20):
I walk out of the bathroom last night before we
go to the concert. My wife goes, what are you doing?
I was like, I'm leaning into the moment, and she's like, no,
that's not what people wear to this.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
It seems like you're fishing for a compliment now that
you didn't get last night. You're the only chance.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
I have at this point.
Speaker 3 (01:41):
Amazing shirt.
Speaker 1 (01:42):
We'll start with our shrimply unbelievable stat of the week,
courtesy of Action Network Director of Research, Evan Abrams collabsed
with Kendra's Lovely and Pregnant Rainbow Shrimp, Monica Lashrimsky and
Oj Shrimpson. How they doing, By the way, before we
get to the stats, how the yes, I don't know
how long the pregnancy lasts for a.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
Trump, She's sognant, she's so pregnant. I have been trying
to wait to change her water and add chemicals in
there because obviously it evaporates as water does, because I
don't want to disrupt her flow. But it's getting to
a point where I need to do it. I just
I'm nervous she's been pregnant for so long. I don't
know if it has something to do with the incess bit.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
Take them to the shrimp doctor. I guess we'll figure
out what's going on, all right, you guys take your pick.
I'm gonna run through three that Evan dropped into our
chat here because I could not decide which one stood
out to me the most. They're all pretty amazing, shrimply unbelievable.
I should say, let's stick to the branding. NFL closing
favorites of four points or more are twelve and oho
(02:37):
straight up this season. First time in NFL history that
faves of four points or more are undefeated straight up
through two weeks. Okay, so lock that one in your
memory bank. Number two an underdog on short rest, tough spot.
That's Miami, Houston, Las Vegas. These teams are twenty nine
one oh one straight up twenty two percent over the
(03:00):
last three seasons. C J Stroud one in three in
that spot, Tua who plays tonight as of this recording,
and five straight up Gino Smith oh to nine. Okay. Third,
Caleb Williams has started seven career NFL games in the
afternoon or primetime window. Four pm or later. The Bears
are zero to seven straight up in those games, losing
(03:23):
by an average of eleven point one points per game.
As a Bears backer, this one wants to make me
absolutely puke stucky. Which of those? I know, that's a
lot right there to digest. Which of those stands out
to you the most?
Speaker 3 (03:38):
I mean, anything in week three? Week three is all
about trying not to overreact. So and that's to Caleb
Williams time. That doesn't really do anything for me. But
a lot of the trends that you'll read in Evan's
piece and that you'll read a mind and then we'll
talk about here and on the Action Over podcast that
I just did with Rayvaughn, they're about how in week
(03:59):
three you would have been better off just sleeping or
going to concerts through the first two weeks of the
NFL and not having any idea of what went on
and not seeing anything to cloud your judgment like a
lot of like professional betters, you're better off sticking with
what you had prior, your priors prior to the year
(04:21):
than updating anything really drastically. Because it's a sample size
of two. For example, we just don't know how yeah,
just two games, you'd take any So if you went
back last year and you just took any random subset
of two games for a team, probably doesn't tell the
picture or paint the picture of what that team really was.
So for example, are the Colts really now? The greatest
(04:45):
show under is Daniel Jones now? And I'll but probably not.
He's more likely than not to turn back into a pumpkin.
And the Colts probably won't look this good all year.
So anything like that and what that leads to this week,
there is usually an underdog week. Week three hunderdogs are
fifty five percent against the spread teams that are zero
and two, right, So all right, I just saw this
(05:07):
team lose twice. They look awful. I don't I really
don't want to bet them. The market might be overselling
them a bunch or too much. Own two underdogs. Historically,
since twenty forty and twenty one against the spread, that's
close to sixty six percent covering by a field goal
per game. So for example, tonight, who wants to bet
(05:27):
the Dolphins after what we've seen? They haven't, they haven't
covered a game, they look awful, and the Bills just
they beat the Ravens and then blow out the Jets.
Who's everyone's favorite underdog darling last week? Including mine? I
bet them, and by the way I fell for it.
I looked at the Jets week one, we talked about
(05:48):
this cloud in my judgment, and guess what, Fields was
still pumpkin and the Jets still look bad. So by
the way I did bet the Dolphins tonight, partly is
just like this line's too high. Take about what I saw.
So anything that speaks to like the overreactions of week
one and two, those are the trends that I like
because it's just the overarching idea that look, ignore and
(06:11):
don't overreact. This is still the NFL.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
Yeah, I'm on the other side, by the way, so
we're gonna go opposite on the Thursday night football game.
I think that perhaps the Dolphins were just overrated going
into the season and we didn't realize just how bad
they are, and they are dealing with some offensive line injuries.
The Bills no Ed Oliver, no Matt Milano tonight, so
that is a big deal for them. Kendra, what about
(06:35):
the shrimply unbelieved.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
Loser has to buy winner. Let's go ahead to have
loser by winner a Halloween shirt.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
Of just a plain black T shirt we're getting from
Matt Mitchell in the chat. Yeah, okay, so we go
back to because you have a spirit Halloween store. Imagine
that's a nation wide chain this time of year, right,
you have one of those where you're at I have
no idea.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
Wait, I have an idea. Have you guys seen like.
Speaker 4 (07:03):
The Bachelor Bachelorette trips where they buy each other like
a T shirt with the worst saying that they can
possibly find on it. Loser gets to or wine to
buy the loser the craziest shirt they can find and
they have to wear it on an episode.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
Yeah, for sure, I'm down for that. A virtual handshake
on that. Kendra, Well, I got twelve. We'll call it twelve. Okay,
we'll call it twelve and then if there's a push,
we'll both wear the shirt. All right, Kendra, what do
you got?
Speaker 4 (07:33):
I brought my own stat and it is so stupid,
but I love a weird age.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
I'm so excited for this. You how the world, how
in the world did you come up with this?
Speaker 4 (07:42):
Anyway, just tell the people, No, I'm in a group chat. Okay,
so a bunch of my coworkers are really into like
numerology and astrology, which I'm not the biggest person in it,
but I love a weird angle for gambling at any point.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
So this was in our group chat today. The game
between the Lions and the Ravens is on a waxing
crescent moon. The Lions are nine and one during waxing
crescent moons the last two seasons.
Speaker 4 (08:07):
Hashtag astrology. I think I know where I'm going with this.
One nine and one's pretty nuts on.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
A specific moon's that's pretty crazy.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
Yeah, I want to find the connecting angle to that. Stucky.
If I asked you to draw a waning crescent moon,
do you think you can do it?
Speaker 2 (08:24):
It's waxing all it is.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
If Jared Goff can see the moon, fade him. If
he can't inside a dome, bet him. That makes more
sense to me is I think it's about whether or
not golf can see the actual waxing, remaining moon. But
I can't say that I've ever dabbled in numerology. But
maybe maybe you got something there.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
Yep, we got lunar caps here on the podcast today.
There is something to that he plays better in domes.
You can't see a moon, the moon in a dome,
and it looks like based on a quick Google search,
the waxing crescent is very little of the moon that
you can see, so perhaps it is a moon related stat.
The more of the moon that golf can see. We're
(09:07):
trying to help you out here, Kendra, The more of
the moon that golf can see, the less he performs. Well,
let's get to some of the updates for these quarterbacks.
Justin Fields is out that has done nothing but create
Jets movement in the market, which is just bizarre to me.
Tyron Taylor has that started a game since twenty twenty three.
(09:28):
This idea that he is even a half point improvement
to what Justin Fields was feels off to me. Now,
part of this could also be Luke Getticky is injured,
so the Bucks are dealing with even more offensive line injuries.
Collijah Kanci's out for the year. How do you read this, Stucky.
As far as the line movement that we're seeing, it
(09:50):
seems like there's a lot of Jets sentiment in the market.
Speaker 3 (09:53):
Yeah, I played the Jet I mean I played the
Jets again. I played them seven. I mean, think about it.
The Jets close five and a half home against the
Bills last week. Now, obviously they got blown out. The
Bills that just knew exactly what they were gonna run.
They were run blitzing, They blew up everything possible, and
the Jets were running a terrible defense against Josh. Against
Josh Allen, running like cover one, it was insane. Never
run like cover one against Ount. He's either gonna find
(10:14):
someone or he's just gonna run for first down, which
is what happened in the entire game. But that closed. The
Markets had five and a half and the Bills had
a couple of defensive injuries. But now you're going to Tampa.
Tampa's on a short week, they're banged up, and this
is seven like. So that's we're basically saying, like the
Bills and the Bucks are in the same neighborhood. Absolutely not.
(10:36):
I get Ty Taylor hasn't played in a while. He's
He's been very good against the number his career. He's
thirty four to twenty one and four against the spread,
sixty two percent, seven three and one against the spread
when catching seven or more. The drop off isn't drastic
like fields. His whole career has been a terrible passer.
We saw that in week two. We saw the flash
in the pan week one. That was obviously the exception
(10:57):
of the rule. But Tyrod Taylor is a professional back
up on the guy you want when you want to
cover a touchdown because he doesn't turn the ball over
top five all time among qualified quarterbacks an interception rate,
doesn't turn it over, can run the offense. And this
Bucks team like they honestly could be going too. They
won on basically the final play two weeks in a row.
(11:19):
Baker Mayfield is six turnover worthy plays, no interceptions. He's
been pretty fortunate and they could easily be ohing to
the Jets should have beat the Steelers. Like if the
Jets are sitting one and one and the Bucks are
rowing two, this line would have been four. Let's call
it a point for a point downgrade from Fields to Taylor,
(11:40):
this line I think should be around five. That's before
even accounting for all the Bucks injuries you mentioned Kancy,
They're still shortthanded at receiver. Worst is out one of
the best left tackles in the NFL. Geticky's most likely
going to miss. Solid right tackle. Then Cody Monk their
the right goal he's now out for the year. They're
(12:01):
down three starting offensive line mean, they've already had to
move their center to left tackle. Like it's a mess.
So look, ignore what you saw last week. I know
it's painful if you want to beat the Jets again
after what they did last week, but I got to
take the seven here, so I'm rolling with the Jets again.
Hopefully I don't end up with egg on my face again.
Speaker 4 (12:22):
For me, it's more so just when does the Bucks
luck run out? I get that it's only week three.
I mean we did watch the Kansas City Chiefs carry
that luck through the entire season last year, so maybe
it just doesn't for certain teams, but they've got the
injury bug. The number is huge. Tyrod Taylor is a
pros pro. He can go out there and win you
a game two games. We've seen him do it throughout
his career.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
For me, it's like, I just don't think that the
drop off is that significant between the two and the
number is just too big. Tyrod is a pros pro.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
I agree the luck rank Kings do of the Bucks
pretty high over at Action Network. Before he pivot off
of this, Evan, if you could pop in one of
the stats that really stood out to me because I
want to be on Tampa, but I do respect where
STUCKYU and Kendra and where the market is coming from
on the Jets, and part of this, it's hard to
not ignore the fact that I was heavy on the
(13:11):
Jets last week. That was my number one play and
they burned me hard. Try not to bake that into
your analysis, but it's just human nature. This is Baker
Mayfield's eleventh start on short rest since twenty twenty in
those games, and his team scored twenty plus points nine
or more times overall, six and four against the spread
(13:33):
in those games. Evan, this is an interesting one to me,
the Baker on short rest. Not every trend, not every
stat that you put in the primer carries an equal
amount of weight. How much weight do you put into
that for the Baker's stat As far as how he
plays when he doesn't have a lot of time to prepare, I.
Speaker 5 (13:53):
Mean, I think it's just he's an erratic quarterback. I
think the turnover where he plays at stuck mentioned earlier
in the fact that he's had no turns is kind
of kind of the way he plays football. So I
think the fact that he scores a lot of points.
I like the Jets plus seven. I'm with you guys
in terms of that play overall, just based off the injuries.
I think the short resting is just the fact that again,
like he's a passer in the past, a lot of turnovers,
(14:15):
a lot of interceptions, which leads to the other team
scoring points. I think the six and four number, I'd
have to look back, but I imagine some of those
games as underdogs.
Speaker 3 (14:23):
But I doubt he's a favored by a touchdowner more
correct both games, and like.
Speaker 5 (14:27):
Yeah, I would have to go back and see, I'm
not sure in any of those games he'd be favored
by that much. Would probably be a good added note
to it. So I think the weight is if anything,
I'd honestly look to the over like Tyrod not doing
a ton of turnovers, Like the totals come down two
and a half points or so from the open, So
maybe something to that in the sense that you know
(14:48):
Baker's gonna be slinging it here.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
Yeah, I do want to mention I took the Bucks
minus seven. I placed it on the app. I am
gonna look, I took the Bucks minus seven. I am
going to look to buy out of that at the
earliest possible opportunity. Right now, I see six and a
half's everywhere on the Jets, and so I'm gonna have
to wait to see if that pops back up.
Speaker 3 (15:09):
They're still seven seven you can get a seven. Uh,
there's sevens of DraftKings last I checked. I will say
this could do the one thing. This could actually work
against him here in a short week because he did
get banged up a little bit at the end of
that game. Yeah right, he was able to finish, but
he heard his knee. Remember he went down. He gravitz.
We don't know your adrenaline's going was a game. If
(15:30):
that like flares up, he's gonna play. But like maybe
he's not his mobile. Maybe he's just not at one
hundred percent. I don't hate the total look. I think
the Jets will have to throw a bit more. They're
gonna have to change up their offense from what they
did last week a bit. They're gonna have some new looks,
probably that Tampa is not ready for. And maybe the
Bucks go tempo here because their offensive line is decimated,
(15:52):
Like they might have to start a rookie at guard.
So in order to keep that Jets pass rush at
Bay using tempo, which they were flying a bit last
week to protect their offensive line against those Texans pass rushers.
So you could see the Bucks maybe utilize a little
bit more tempo this week. So I don't hate that.
Speaker 4 (16:08):
Look they were super productive running the ball, though, I
mean they were, they kind of kicked the shit out
of them, So I don't know. I don't know if
they change a whole lot. It's been working for them.
I get the injuries, but if it's working, it's working.
Speaker 1 (16:20):
Uh. There's at least a chance that brock Purty starts
this week. He's taking reps behind Mac Jones. I actually
think he's third right now at practice, but if he
gears up for a full practice on Friday, there's a
chance that he plays as a forty nine ers better
this week. I honestly don't care. And we've seen that
line is it's been one of the biggest shifts so
far this week. I got the Niners money line at
(16:42):
plus one hundred right now they are minus two and
a half out there. I honestly don't care if Perdy plays,
and I'm kind of in on the Mac Jones experience.
Also Arizona. That team outscored nineteen to seven in the
second half against Kendrick sad Cats. So definitely a team
that I looking to fade. Where do you sit, Kendra.
As far as perhaps putting the mac Jones hate down
(17:05):
for a week and backing the Niners, I.
Speaker 4 (17:08):
Don't want to take the cheese. That's where I'm at
in this game. It feels too obvious. It feels like
the forty nine Ers should be the choice here. Don't
care about the injuries, don't care if Prety plays. The
Cardinals do not deserve the wins that they've had this season.
They have looked like crap against terrible teams. And regardless
of the fact that the forty nine ers have a
lot of injuries, they draft well.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
I'm higher on Kyle Shanahan than a lot of people.
Speaker 4 (17:32):
I think that he gets a lot of hate, some
of it deserves, some of it not. This forty nine
Ers team just has depths that the Cardinals don't. I'm
actually going to make part of my personality hating Kyler
Murray at this point because of a social media post
he had this week. I'm so anti Kyler Murray now
it's not even funny, I'm praying on his downfall. So
regardless of if it's Mac Jones or Kyler Murray, I'm
(17:53):
gonna hate this game. This just feels too obvious with
the forty nine ers that I feel like, I'm like,
what am I missing? I'm trying to convince myself that
the bet that feels like the easy bet you shouldn't bet.
Am I wrong here for thinking that? Because I feel
like every time I'm like, that's easy money is when
I get burned.
Speaker 3 (18:13):
I can't bet this game personally. Yeah, sometimes it can
feel like that in the NFL, or it might look
too easy for a reason. But I don't know if
pretty or Jones is going to play, and if Party
does plays one hundred pcent, I would assume they rest
him here. You know, there is a couple point difference.
But the other thing is the Cardinals second, I don't
know who's going to play in the Cardinal secondary. All
(18:34):
three of their corners are hurt. One went to IR
one didn't practice yesterday, And I was actually liking their
secondary coming into the year after some of the additions,
and will Johnson looked really good. He didn't practice yesterday.
Williams went on ir Melton was banged up, so like,
who's playing corner for the Cardinals. I don't know. This
(18:56):
is pure, pure stay away for me.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
Time for an Evan Abrams trend. Here, the forty nine
Ers have an opportunity to start three and oh against
the spread against the Cardinals this week. That would be
the first time they've done that since two thousand and nine,
and that was their only three and oh ats start
in forty years. So, Kendra, you are on the money
with saying if it feels too easy, you might want
(19:22):
to stay away. I'm happy with where I'm sitting. This
is not a position that I want to buy out in,
but I got it at a really good price. I
don't think that forty nine Ers minus two and a
half is a smart bet right now. The most heavily
bet games of the week so far, according to Action
Network tracking Thursday Night Football. Those standalone spots are always
going to be high on the list. Packers, Browns, Chiefs Giants,
(19:43):
that's Sunday Night Football and Eagles Rams. These are some
really polarizing games for sports betters. A disclaimer that is
worth mentioning. And I know that we are on an
NFL betting podcast. But you do not have to bet
every game that's out there. Forget your fomo. Only bet
the games that you feel like you have a good
(20:04):
read on. I'm on eight games this week as it
stands right now, we'll probably end up adding more to
the mix. I have two teasers and a total. I
don't need my money tied up on the Cleveland Browns,
So guys, I'm good just staying away from this Packers Browns.
It feels like people are gonna want to bet this
game to make a statement a statement of how good
the Green Bay Packers are or a statement of how
(20:27):
big their balls are by betting on the Cleveland Browns
and taking the points here. So I'm it's a stay
away for me or either of you on this football game.
Speaker 4 (20:38):
I wish I'd gotten in on the six and a half,
but I didn't get there in time. Because if I'd
gotten in on the six and a half, I probably
would have gotten in on it. The only thing that
I could potentially get to the window on is the
total of forty one and a half in this game,
just because I think what's likely to happen is the
Packers get up comfortably and then sit starters, and even
though they sit starters, I don't think it's going to
(20:59):
be that big of a I don't think the Browns
are going to be able to put up points. The
Packers defense is just too insane. I think, genuinely, what's
going to happen. Packers are going to get a.
Speaker 2 (21:06):
Comfortable lead sid starters, and it's that's just how it's
going to go. I might be on the under.
Speaker 3 (21:12):
I bet the Browns, so again, ignore what do you
I think this line should probably be seven. Do you
have to remember the Browns so far have played Joe
Burrow and that Bengals offense and Lamar Jackson and the
Ravens offense. The Ravens offense that did whatever wanted against
the Bills last week. Don't don't look at the final score,
(21:35):
which is forty one to seventeen. They had Derrick Henry
had eleven carries for twenty yards. They had two hundred
and forty yards of offense. The Ravens scored on a
bunch of flute plays and then you know that, a
couple of defensive scores and then Lamar Jackson running around
doing Lamar Jackson things. The Browns also held the Bengals
to two yards in the second half, two yards. Their
(21:55):
defense is playing at an elite level at home, catching
over a touchdo out. I had to take it again.
Does it feel scary to take the Browns? Yeah? Does
it feel scared to fade the Packers? Yes'm I guess
I'm making a statement of both. I think the Packers
are legit. They were the only Super Bowl future I
placed it in May. It was before Parsons got there.
I love this team. But is there a chance that
(22:18):
the Packers aren't this great? Absolutely? Like maybe Week one
the Lions with their new coordinators, they were just a mess.
What the Commanders, I'm not that high on this year.
And maybe like there's just two games that you have
to remember. And the Ravens were laying eleven and a
half last week at home, and now the against the Browns. Now,
(22:38):
the Browns are catching eight and a half at home,
adding one point for home field either way. And now
we're saying the Ravens and the Packers are in like
we're pricing them in a similar manner. I can't get there.
I'll make the Packers prove it to me. I think
this will be a lower scoring game. I agree with Kendra,
which makes the points even more valuable. So I took
the Browns. I think the Packers love like this is
(22:59):
the peak. This is the peak of their value, I think,
and who wants to bet the Browns after last week?
But I trust their defense to keep them in this
at home, And yeah, I took. I took eight and
a half.
Speaker 1 (23:10):
Browns are pass It's definitely Browns are passed. But for
me it is a strong pass because I am buying in.
I think obviously we could all be overreacting positively or
negatively to the things that we see through the first
two weeks. I think the Packers are this good, and
if they are this good, this numbers should probably be
closer to ten. But you know, this is what we
(23:31):
tend to do. So eight and a half for a
home team that has a good defense. You have to
have some redeeming quality in order to place a bet
on a team, and the Browns at least have that.
Are you guys ready? Four our three musketeers parlay all
for one and one for all last week? Kendra, you
were the one that carried the team. You had the
(23:51):
Panthers plus six and a half against the Cardinals, Stucky
and I did not get home with our bets. So
I'm gonna let you kick us off. You have two nominees,
and then Stucky and Ill we'll decide which one we
throw into the favorites parlay.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
So I'm on the Colts and the Lions this week,
but I gave you guys options between two anytime touchdowns.
I'm calling it the Battle of the touchdown list? Stars.
Speaker 4 (24:17):
Are we going Lad McConkey for in anytime or BTJ
for in any time? Because my whole thing is the
fact that it's about to be Week three. Neither of
I would say the two best receivers on both of
these teams haven't scored a touchdown.
Speaker 2 (24:32):
You the fact that they haven't been involved. It's time.
It's got to be here. I think the values here.
It's not going to get any better for either of
them this season. BTJ, big big, big revenge game for
the Jaguars.
Speaker 4 (24:42):
I don't know if you guys remember the Aziz all
sha year situation last year with Trevor Lawrence and how
that all unfolded. Texan's coming back to Jacksonville BTJ allegedly
having an injured wrist. Apparently one of his friends died recently,
just having like an all time low on the BTJ train.
I think they've got to get him involved, got to
get his confidence up, got to go to him in
the red zone, constantly has to score this week. Lad McConkey,
(25:05):
on the other hand, I hadn't any time for him
in Week one. I thought that he was the best
option for them to throw too in that game. Didn't happen,
didn't get to it last week because of that. Sitting
here now got to be lad McConkie time. Which one
are you guys in on?
Speaker 3 (25:21):
I'll say you gotta go maconky because I just, I
just we both have are gonna have tough corner matchups.
But I think the Broncos Chargers is a sneaky over
and I just don't know BTJ. Maybe he's going through
some other stuff because it's his friend, as you mentioned,
did die. But I don't know if he's fully healthy,
(25:41):
so maybe there is an injury. So because of that uncertainty,
this this Chargers offense is rolling right now. The Broncos
defense might not be as good as many thought coming
into the year.
Speaker 2 (25:54):
Have them in fantasy. It's killing me.
Speaker 3 (25:56):
Oh yeah, So I think we got to go Maconkey there.
Speaker 1 (26:00):
We're gonna have a tie split. So BRIANTJ does have
a touchdown, he had a rushing touchdown. He just doesn't
have a But I think they're gonna force feed him.
This is all that Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence have
been asked about this week in Jacksonville.
Speaker 3 (26:16):
And I think that is he healthy is the question.
I wouldn't. I would agree with you in principle, But is.
Speaker 1 (26:21):
Health the health I think impacts his ability to confidently
catch passes over the middle. It doesn't. I don't think
a wrist injury is gonna is gonna stop him from
going over the top of the defense and you know
go those but that.
Speaker 3 (26:35):
That going over the middle, that will reduce your chances
of ways to score.
Speaker 1 (26:41):
Corner. It's a corner in the end zone, fade touchdown
pass from Trevor.
Speaker 3 (26:47):
Wills against the one of the best corners in the NFL.
Break Yeah.
Speaker 1 (26:56):
Well, the price also matters here. Can we get it?
Because I want the or payout if we're going between
these two.
Speaker 4 (27:03):
He was one sixty and BTJ was one for maybe
hold on McConkie won sixty. BTJ won forty five corracked.
Speaker 1 (27:16):
Evan break the tie.
Speaker 5 (27:19):
McConkie, all right, you scoring game, He'll he'll figure it out,
thank you.
Speaker 2 (27:23):
Ev all right, I need BTJ to catch a touchdown.
Speaker 4 (27:26):
No more, no more rushing. I need you to catch something, please.
I can't sit here and sweat this out any longer.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
It's it's Keenan Allen that throws me off because he's
sold I know, but he's like he's not going away.
And then you have Quentin Johnston who's hogging all of
the touchdowns. So between those between Alan gobbling up targets
and and then Johnson gobbling up the touchdowns. And this
team still does want to run the ball a little bit,
even though they haven't been good at it. All right, stucky,
(27:52):
we got McConkie. Anytime touchdown in there? Your nominees, please.
Speaker 3 (27:58):
Let's see. I mean, you guys are probably not gonna
want to bet a lot of mine. So what I
bet so far to say, I've bet the Dolphins. I
have the brown. So I just talked about uh and
these weeked I mean I could go on, I could
go on for days about the trends of oh and
two teams I own two underdogs already mentioned forty twenty
(28:18):
one and one against the spread. I wondered I was
catching over seven in Week three. It's like double overreaction,
so we could go to Browns. I did play the
the Rams, so I guess I'll throw out the Rams
that Actually, I think you guys can stomach that one
or that's a yeah the shoes h So we'll go
Rams one. I mean, look, this Eagles offense. I thought
(28:40):
Cominer was gonna take a step back because of the
coordinator change. I thought the defense is gonna take a
step back because of everything they lost, and that's that's
what we've seen. And last week, without that Kelsey drop,
they probably lose to the Chiefs. And think about this,
this Eagles offense, like they they had two They've completed
two passes over ten yards. They played the Cowboys, who
just gave up seven trillion yards to Russell Wilson, and
(29:03):
then they played the Chiefs, who have issues in the
back end of their defense. They didn't they got carved
by Justin Herbert and they didn't. They couldn't throw against either,
so and then their defense is just not getting the
same amount of pressure. I think it's gonna take us
about the play calling is bad McVeigh eighteen eleven and
two against the spread as a dog of three or
more fourteen seven and one against the spread in the
Eastern time zone. And here's my Bowld prediction. I wish
(29:26):
I could put a bet on this. McVeigh went to
the league office about the Toush push.
Speaker 4 (29:31):
Yes, I was just gonna say the conspiracy theory I'm in.
Speaker 3 (29:34):
They're gonna call They're gonna call a false start or two.
Now they might call neutral zone infraction two, but who
cares if they call both. So the Eagles are always
going to get their toush push. They it's fourth and one,
they're always gonna get it. So if you call a
neutral zone infection they get they get the first time away.
But if they call false starter or two, that could
be the difference between say they're at the goal line,
(29:56):
it's fourth and goal with to one oh false start
off sides on the offense. For that's a difference between
a field going to touchdown. That could be four points.
So if it's a midfield, that's difference between keeping the
drive going and probably scoring or punting. So a little
potential hit an edge there. But This Rams offense is
playing really well. Their defense can get pressures, playing really well,
and I just don't trust this Eagles offense yet.
Speaker 1 (30:17):
Right now, I don't I think you. I think you
can stop the sale. Honestly, Yeah, I think we're all good.
Speaker 4 (30:22):
The Rams are getting the league makeup calls this week.
I'm not betting on this game, but if I know
one thing, I know that they are going to be
getting these makeup calls for last week. They're going to
benefit off of this, and they the league wants to
ban the toush push and they're going to make the
case to do it at all.
Speaker 3 (30:39):
I want to talk about this week too, so it
makes sense to send a message.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
Yep.
Speaker 1 (30:44):
Yeah. The betting splits are in our favor as well.
When a team has been catching more than sixty percent
of the bets, they have not been covering so far
this year. Right now, the Eagles seventy three percent of
the bets, the Rams sixty eight percent of the money.
So that's definitely feel like the right side. But can
I help the ante on this. I think we should
throw the Rams money line into the parlay instead of
(31:06):
the spread.
Speaker 3 (31:07):
I'm fine with that little Rams revenge from last year.
Think I remember they went. McVay knows how to. I
don't know how what he does or how he gets
his team ready, but these East Coast.
Speaker 2 (31:17):
Games he's good on. Isn't he good on the road
or no?
Speaker 3 (31:20):
Yeah, he's He's fourteen seven to one against the spread
on the Eastern time zone like he he always has
his team ready for these, like they almost they in
the snow with old Stafford. They were twenty yards away
from beating the Eagles last year. And the Eagles were
a better team with a better off its coordinator last season.
And I think the Rams overall have improved from last
year's team. So yeah, we can throw a Rams money
line in there.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
Are you worried about Stafford's back at all?
Speaker 5 (31:42):
Matter?
Speaker 3 (31:42):
Yeah? It's always a flare up, for sure. And part
of me is just like, all right, am I overreacting?
Speaker 1 (31:49):
Right?
Speaker 2 (31:49):
Am?
Speaker 3 (31:49):
I overreacting to what we've seen from the Eagles. But
this was my thought process coming into the year. And
then like, am I overreacting to the Rams who have
played the Texans and Titans? Maybe? But all right, let's
let's throw the Rams money line in with mcconfie touchdown.
Speaker 1 (32:02):
Yeah, we did catch that Kia reference right there by
the way. All right, my two the Rabbits.
Speaker 2 (32:08):
I hate you for both of these so much.
Speaker 4 (32:11):
I'm on the opposite side of you for both of them.
Why are you making me choose between Satan and the
de I.
Speaker 1 (32:16):
Do have, I do have more than two. I just
threw two in there for simplicity.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
So yeah, dag me I.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
I mean I left mac Jones out of it. I
am on the Niners too, But.
Speaker 2 (32:26):
Patts plus Jones, pat.
Speaker 1 (32:28):
Plus Pats plus one and a half against the Steelers,
Titans plus three and a half against the Indianapolis Colts. Guys,
I know what that. We said on Tuesday that it
was either Sunday or to one of our last episodes.
We said that at some point we're gonna have to
fade this Indianapolis Colts team. Well, I say, why not us?
Why not? Now? On the Tennessee Titans catching a field
(32:50):
goal and the hook. This is Danny Dimes on the
road as the public side against the divisional rival. You
talk about the Green Bay Packers reaching the peak of
the market. I think this is the Colts reaching the
peak of the market. Also, teams that are own two
straight up are thirty one and twenty seven straight up
(33:10):
forty seventeen and one against the spread. That's seventy percent
in week three since twenty ten. Betting the Titans to me,
feels like an absolute must this week. I don't think
we should wait any longer on this Colt's fade. We
could even throw the Titans plus four in there, because
I'm seeing that out there.
Speaker 3 (33:31):
Yeah, Titans plus four, you could. There's a little bit
more expensive four and a half they if anyone's into
do theory, which I'm not. But the Titans are zero
to nine against the spread in their past nine home games,
so maybe nobody beats the Titans nine ten times in
a row against the spread in Nashville, but those fans
(33:52):
have not seen. I feel bad for season ticket holders
in Tennessee.
Speaker 4 (33:56):
No, they're horrible even they're so mean's male eater?
Speaker 1 (34:02):
Yah? Should I do the pat sale? So I have
the Pats plus one and a half at home. Pittsburgh's
last outright road win against the Patriots came in two
thousand and eight. Now is that relevant? No, But it's
a fun fact. That's not why I'm betting them. Like,
I really like the way the Patriots looked last week.
I know that they played against the Miami Dolphins and
that has a lot to do with it, but even
(34:23):
vermondre Stevenson looked good. And the Pittsburgh defense has been terrible.
They're twenty ninth in the league and scoring defense thirty
one in defensive success rate. Bad offense, bad defense. A
coach that can't beat New England for whatever voodoo reason,
not a deserving favorite on the road. So I like
backing the home dog.
Speaker 2 (34:43):
I don't know where to go here.
Speaker 4 (34:45):
I am on the opposite side of both of these,
so I feel like I'm.
Speaker 2 (34:50):
Putting in a parlay against my best interest.
Speaker 3 (34:54):
I also like dolls playing Dallas practice yesterday.
Speaker 4 (34:57):
Okay, So I was listening to Rabel's press conference yesterday
and someone asked him if Gonzalez was gonna practice, and
Rabel's answer was, he's gonna do some stuff.
Speaker 3 (35:10):
That's an improvement, that's a step in the right direction
from doing nothing.
Speaker 4 (35:13):
But then I was listening to a podcast of some
Patriots insiders and they're saying that they're not sure, but
they feel like he'll probably come back for the Bills game.
So I genuinely don't know if he's playing, I'm gonna
lean towards no.
Speaker 2 (35:32):
God, I don't know they.
Speaker 3 (35:34):
Really need him back. I mean because that that's been
one of their weakest areas. Uh, because I thought Drake
May played well last week?
Speaker 2 (35:40):
Did rewatch that game like I promised that I would.
Speaker 3 (35:43):
Their secondary has been like just horrendous for two weeks
in a row, and Gonzales.
Speaker 1 (35:50):
Not sure it matters against this team. But I'm not.
Speaker 3 (35:52):
Saying well either, I'm just saying for the value of
getting Gonzalez back would be significant. I will also mention
this years have a on of injuries like there are defense.
They could be without four or five starters on defense,
and Watt just doesn't look like the same caliber player.
Credit to him for demanding the money when he did
get it, because I'm not sure he would have after
(36:13):
this season and what he looks like right now.
Speaker 4 (36:16):
I think high Smith is the only one who's ruled
out for the Steelers right now. I think everybody else
is expected to play, except I don't know about Joey
Porter Junior. I feel like he probably will play. My
big thing is that I get the TJ. Watt hasn't
been himself, but the Patriots offensive line has looked quote
unquote serviceable through these first two weeks, but they've got
(36:38):
a breakdown at some point. I mean, Campbell just keeps
getting penalty after penalty. Ah, I guess, I guess I'm
gonna go with the Titans. I hate this so much,
but yeah, I also have the.
Speaker 1 (36:54):
Bears plus one if you guys wanted a third option,
I really like that. But the blowout bounce back at home.
Speaker 3 (37:00):
Yeah, teas teams after a thirty point loss usually a
good bet.
Speaker 2 (37:04):
I like the Bears because they're oer and two at home.
Speaker 1 (37:07):
Okay, so let's you want to toss the other two
to the side. We go. Bears plus one is the
third leg sucky.
Speaker 3 (37:16):
Yeah, I'm okay with that. I mean, just teams that
lose by thirty plus sixty percent as a dog are
a favorite of under a field goal fifty five percent overall,
like going back forever. Like again, don't overreact. Usually you
might get a point or two value. The market's betting
against these teams, Like who wants to bet the Bears
after seeing them lose by thirty and they're owing two
and you saw the Cowboys win and the Bears secondary
is scary? They have like all these injuries going up
(37:39):
go up against the Cowboys receivers, but like this is
Dallas outdoors, there could be some wind. I'm cool with
the Bears. I will just throw one of my favorite
trends for the Titans, and the Titans injuries worry me
a bit, Like they have injuries offensive line and the secondary.
Excuse me on the offensive line and then the defensive line,
like they need sweat in there because take that he's
helpful for the run game. Takes attention away from Simmons.
(38:01):
So we'll see who ends up playing. But this goes
back to the whole theme of the podcast. Over reactions
Weeks two through five over the past twenty years, road
favorites after winning as a home underdog. So this is
early in the year. Everyone just saw a team win
as a home underdog that was expected to lose, and
(38:22):
then they go out on the road in their favorite
So this is a team that maybe overachieved early and
maybe people are thinking that is better than they really are.
This fits the Colts to a t so road favorites
weeks two through five early in the season, then that
win as a home dog, go on the road in
our favor seventeen thirty nine and one against the spread.
(38:43):
That's thirty percent. They're failing to cover by about six
points per game when favored by more than a field goal,
six and sixteen against the spread when they're playing a
team with a losing record, which is definitely the Titans
eleven twenty nine to one against the spread twenty seven
and a half percent. So like that just speaks to
this whole thing, like, hey, there's a there's a decent
(39:05):
chance the Colts. This is probably the peak of the
valley and they're probably not as good as we've seen,
and the Titans, I think are going to continue to
keep improving. So I was okay with the Titans.
Speaker 2 (39:16):
I'm not a Colts truther, but the Titans are ass.
Speaker 1 (39:20):
I think cam Ward is going to be a spread coverer.
Speaker 3 (39:22):
Though in Denver they were down three at the start
of the fourth quarter, they lost Zeitler, their offensive line,
and then it led to a sack that really led
to a short field touch on flipped the game and
they didn't have sweat in there. Simmons had nothing left
in the fourth quarter. So that's what concerns me here.
But the Colts pass rush isn't the Rams, and it's
not the Broncos. They're like bottom five and Prussure eight.
(39:44):
So Ward might be a little bit more comfortable here
in this division game division like this. I think this
should be three max. So I was cool with both.
But Kenjer, I'm cool with the Bears too. Bears as
you can get plus one.
Speaker 2 (39:59):
Get ev into time break again.
Speaker 3 (40:02):
No, I'm cool with the Bears.
Speaker 4 (40:03):
Kender, Yeah, I'm cool with the Bears. I think the
Colts just have aura. Dude, I don't know what it is.
Speaker 2 (40:09):
I don't think that there was Daniel Jones as.
Speaker 1 (40:11):
I think they they probably have home aura, though I
think they play. I feel pretty confident in saying that
that team inside of that dome in Indianapolis, that's gonna
be a tough team to beat there.
Speaker 4 (40:21):
I'm going to tell you guys a secret. Do you
guys follow the seth Erkson kid who sings the songs
he writes about the Colts every week?
Speaker 1 (40:28):
Of course? How do you not?
Speaker 4 (40:30):
I bet on the Colts games, whether if the song
isn't a banger, I know to bet on the Colts,
and if it is a banger, I know to bet
against the Colts.
Speaker 2 (40:39):
This week not a banger.
Speaker 3 (40:41):
All right, we can we have a I'm going to
test you with this, Brandon. You have to we can
get like a whiteboard or a notepad, and we have
to keep track of all of Kender's crazy systems. So
we have some. We have Moon's no girl Dad's girl
Dad's Moons. Now, I don't know some singer.
Speaker 2 (41:01):
You don't know who Seth is the Colts kid.
Speaker 3 (41:04):
I doubt know. I actually I don't who is it.
Speaker 2 (41:07):
His name is Seth Erkson I R K S E N.
Speaker 4 (41:10):
And he writes songs every single week about the Colts matchups.
Speaker 3 (41:14):
Okay, so.
Speaker 1 (41:17):
To send this in slack and then I'll tell I
got my notepad here, We'll get that on.
Speaker 4 (41:21):
We'll get I can serve, I can start a system.
It's girl dads after their daughters born first when first
came back.
Speaker 3 (41:28):
W Moons.
Speaker 2 (41:31):
No, I'm not really high on the Moons. I just
the fact I couldn't ignore this one nine and one
on a particular moon kind of crazy. I'm and I
like a weird angle. And then yes, if it's not
a banger, I'm.
Speaker 4 (41:43):
Betting on the Colts. And then this week no bangers,
no bangers. We close my other show with it every
single week, just so everyone can get the vibe to.
Speaker 3 (41:55):
Your your Uh, it's our producer just said, you're waxing
and waning on your lunar takes.
Speaker 2 (42:02):
No, I'm not. I'm not. I'm not saying anything. I'm not.
I'm not always on the moon. I'm just saying this
one was too good to ignore.
Speaker 1 (42:10):
I'm not always on the moon. As it has to
be the line of the podcast. So we have Rams
plus one fifty five. We've got on the Monday line.
We've got Lad McConkie anytime touchdown. We've got the Bears
plus one estimate on price for at plus nine five.
We'll have this logged in the app. That right there
is going to be our three Musketeers parlay this week.
Speaker 3 (42:29):
You've better ruin it again this week, burn mine. I
didn't ruin anything because you already ruined it by then.
So like if you hadn't, my bet would have won.
Speaker 1 (42:37):
So we at least would have had a hedgeable opportunity
on Monday night. So I'll give you that. I just laugh.
Speaker 2 (42:44):
But we might be we might be cooking.
Speaker 3 (42:47):
What are you? Where are you? What are you guys watching?
What is your setup or what are you doing for
the games on Sunday?
Speaker 4 (42:55):
I feel like I'm working at six o'clock in the
morning on Sunday for f one and then I'm gonna
have a brunch thing that i have to go to after.
But I will be on my couch, three TVs in
a laptop immediately after that at one o'clock for the
rest of the day and I'm not moving.
Speaker 3 (43:12):
That sounds like That's sounds like mine. If I don't
go to the bar, then yeah, I have three TVs,
my laptop out and I'll eat a little gummy bear
around eleven yep, and then order some food. We'll do
my do college football podcast, Shout Out Big that's on campus,
(43:34):
listen to some voicemails, get yelled at, and.
Speaker 2 (43:36):
Then uh, wait, what's your game day meal?
Speaker 1 (43:40):
Uh?
Speaker 3 (43:40):
It depends. I don't have a I don't have a constant.
Maybe I'll get Zaxby's in the sauce, but yeah, I
don't need to do that. But uh, I'll order something
big and really good around here from like one of
my favorite staurants and just get a ton of food
and then yeah, sit for We'll be doing the live
show at Semple usually just sit down on the couch
(44:03):
from one until Sunday night football is over.
Speaker 2 (44:08):
Uh So I love being a piece of on Sundays.
Speaker 3 (44:12):
Yeah, that's the.
Speaker 1 (44:13):
Best Red Zone channel I am.
Speaker 3 (44:16):
Now.
Speaker 1 (44:17):
My kid is five years old, about to turn six.
He's just now into the idea of watching football and
he cheers for whoever has the lead. That's his thing
right now. But it is very confusing sitting back. Last
week was the first week I've watched Red Zone with him.
So he like gets into one game and then all
of a sudden they're onto the next one, and I'm
(44:37):
having to teach him that Scott Hansen has taking us
on a He's taking us on a magical carpet ride.
How he's five?
Speaker 2 (44:44):
Does he get the Witching Hour? Yet?
Speaker 1 (44:46):
We're not there yet.
Speaker 3 (44:48):
When you have a kid, how do you, like, do
you want to make sure to be a responsible father
that there they don't go down the path of becoming
a fan of a team that's going to lead to
a life of pain.
Speaker 2 (45:01):
So the Jaguars are awesome.
Speaker 3 (45:03):
Yeah, like you don't want to be for example, you
don't want to become a Jaguars fan.
Speaker 1 (45:08):
I'm a Dolphins fan.
Speaker 3 (45:12):
I do the Dolphins lost it? Like, do you want
you really wanted to be a Dolphins fan?
Speaker 1 (45:15):
Who not? Really? Not really? Right now, I think he's
on a good path. Whoever has more points, that's the
team that he cheers for, and I think it's a
good place to start when you're five. Okay, trying to
teach him the game, I did get up. So speaking
of rewatching Pats Dolphins, because he knows I'm a Dolphins fan,
he gets excited when the Dolphins are on the screen.
He woke up this is like Monday or Tuesday morning,
(45:37):
and I asked him, do you want to watch you know,
Bluie or Mickey Mouse, you know, one of his cartoons
when we get up in the morning, and he goes,
can we watch the Dolphins? And I was like, and
so he doesn't know that this is a painful experience
for me. I just but I'm excited that he wants
to watch football. So I turned the Pats Dolphins game on.
It's six o'clock in the morning to start the week.
(45:59):
I've already lived through this and now I have to
relive this. Friend, what do you do? And I'm not
gonna say no. I love the fact that he's asking
to watch football.
Speaker 2 (46:10):
Oh no, that is so tragic. We watched the Dolphins
and not the Patriots exactly.
Speaker 1 (46:18):
I mean, you know, the kids will pick up. Whatever
it is you get excited about, kids will get excited
about too. There's my dad advice for the week. Stucky.
Speaker 3 (46:25):
Okay, write that.
Speaker 1 (46:27):
Down almost ten to one on our three leg parlay.
That'll do it for this week's episode. Special Thanks to
the producers Gifford Gold, David Payne, and of course Matt Mitchell,
the one and only. Thank you for helping to build
this channel into what it is. You are a true
legend in my book. And if you need to cut
this at the end of the episode, by all means
(46:48):
do so, but it needed to be said. Thank you
from all of us. The Favorites will return next on
Sunday night. We'll have a full recap for you. We'll
see how he did with all of our bets. Thanks
so much for tuning in. We'll catch you next time
right here on the Favorites podcast. Let's catch these tickets.
Speaker 2 (47:06):
I know.
Speaker 1 (47:11):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available.
Speaker 2 (47:19):
Twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
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